id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
aeb90529 | Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2018-10-02T00:00:00 | 0.6152 |
b8a18ec9 | Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-11-08T00:00:00 | 2018-10-02T00:00:00 | 0.3439 |
dc2d07d2 | Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-11-27T00:00:00 | 2018-10-14T00:00:00 | 0.6299 |
5f52d2f0 | Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2019-02-01T00:00:00 | 2018-10-24T00:00:00 | 0.5182 |
8b1d213e | How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 2018-11-01T00:00:00 | 0.5959 |
62f0a2e8 | Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-11-07T00:00:00 | 0.6694 |
ef51dad0 | Will the current Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-16T00:00:00 | 2018-11-16T00:00:00 | 0.6268 |
d3496a4f | Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-11-17T00:00:00 | 0.652 |
28c46b0f | Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-03-29T00:00:00 | 2018-11-17T00:00:00 | 0.6495 |
f5359692 | Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-04-06T00:00:00 | 2018-11-29T00:00:00 | 0.5882 |
315072f3 | Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner? | Boolean question | no | 2019-10-14T00:00:00 | 2018-11-30T00:00:00 | 0.6281 |
d71a150b | Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-02-24T00:00:00 | 2018-12-03T00:00:00 | 0.4783 |
6905b3d6 | Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-08-05T00:00:00 | 2018-12-05T00:00:00 | 0.5365 |
ef32ec17 | Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-03-29T00:00:00 | 2018-12-06T00:00:00 | 0.6517 |
5dd31dbb | Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-06-01T00:00:00 | 2018-12-06T00:00:00 | 0.7078 |
51a0d09d | How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2025-01-24T00:00:00 | 2018-12-07T00:00:00 | 0.7615 |
73189585 | What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019? | quantity estimation | 7570 | 2019-12-01T00:00:00 | 2018-02-14T00:00:00 | 0.644 |
0de004d4 | Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-24T00:00:00 | 2018-12-13T00:00:00 | 0.7129 |
aa816068 | Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-12-13T00:00:00 | 0.7282 |
c87324db | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2020-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.6241 |
45a05f84 | If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data? | Boolean question | yes | 2022-07-11T00:00:00 | 2018-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6973 |
b725297b | Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-04-05T00:00:00 | 2018-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.6903 |
f9c32dc9 | If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months? | quantity estimation | 98 | 2019-03-16T00:00:00 | 2018-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.5823 |
2cf272f9 | Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023? | Boolean question | no | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-12-27T00:00:00 | 0.5924 |
b62aba03 | Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-03-01T00:00:00 | 2018-12-27T00:00:00 | 0.7173 |
e9c188ee | Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022? | Boolean question | no | 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.7003 |
e9c368f0 | Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-23T00:00:00 | 2018-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.69 |
116dbdb8 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.7149 |
ba731dc5 | When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end? | timeframe prediction | 2019-01-26 | 2019-01-26T00:00:00 | 2018-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.4705 |
3c3433f4 | First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2016-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.7182 |
2fc4b005 | Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2020-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.6556 |
bf4a502f | Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.6181 |
b8473884 | Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election? | Boolean question | no | 2020-02-03T00:00:00 | 2019-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.6893 |
3492f4d1 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted? | Boolean question | no | 2019-07-01T00:00:00 | 2019-01-06T00:00:00 | 0.5874 |
8b1adc09 | Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? | Boolean question | yes | 2022-04-24T00:00:00 | 2019-01-07T00:00:00 | 0.5163 |
a035fd6a | Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022? | Boolean question | no | 2022-12-10T00:00:00 | 2019-01-08T00:00:00 | 0.7054 |
b82a1caf | Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-01-09T00:00:00 | 0.7066 |
6fcb031b | Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-30T00:00:00 | 2019-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.5718 |
5cef888d | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2020-02-01T00:00:00 | 2018-05-16T00:00:00 | 0.2136 |
00a77345 | What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020? | quantity estimation | 64 | 2021-05-22T00:00:00 | 2019-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.6514 |
754f79ee | Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-05-02T00:00:00 | 2019-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.5834 |
0b453eee | Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-01-17T00:00:00 | 0.6958 |
fb0041a6 | Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-10-15T00:00:00 | 2019-01-17T00:00:00 | 0.4498 |
bb78039d | Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-02-27T00:00:00 | 2019-01-18T00:00:00 | 0.6235 |
ef6f91ee | When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion? | timeframe prediction | 2020-05-05 | 2020-05-07T00:00:00 | 2019-01-21T00:00:00 | 0.5333 |
5683d2a8 | Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 | 2019-01-24T00:00:00 | 0.5616 |
9911847b | Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-01-29T00:00:00 | 0.6867 |
440f0550 | Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-08-12T00:00:00 | 2019-01-29T00:00:00 | 0.4603 |
ab408307 | Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000? | Boolean question | no | 2020-03-17T00:00:00 | 2019-01-30T00:00:00 | 0.4148 |
604e539a | Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021? | Boolean question | no | 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2019-01-31T00:00:00 | 0.6735 |
6e11ffb6 | Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-07-21T00:00:00 | 2019-02-08T00:00:00 | 0.5884 |
057644ce | Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-02-10T00:00:00 | 0.6912 |
9b85b0ba | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline | Boolean question | yes | 2020-05-21T00:00:00 | 2019-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.6019 |
7fbcbae9 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 | 2019-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.4259 |
57f30e23 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019 | Boolean question | no | 2019-09-29T00:00:00 | 2019-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.3812 |
ff4c3309 | When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | timeframe prediction | 2020-04-04 | 2020-04-04T00:00:00 | 2019-02-27T00:00:00 | 0.5676 |
1afa94dc | Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-08-13T00:00:00 | 2019-03-09T00:00:00 | 0.4806 |
0c571391 | Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination? | Boolean question | no | 2020-02-12T00:00:00 | 2019-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.7194 |
716b33a0 | Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th? | Boolean question | no | 2019-04-12T00:00:00 | 2019-03-24T00:00:00 | 0.617 |
e990115b | Will World GDP grow every year until 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2021-03-25T00:00:00 | 2019-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.4368 |
ac51e06e | Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-12-12T00:00:00 | 2019-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.6885 |
a881bd44 | Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers? | Boolean question | no | 2019-05-29T00:00:00 | 2019-04-06T00:00:00 | 0.503 |
e632baac | How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020? | quantity estimation | below_lower_bound | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2019-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.5523 |
611006b6 | Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-11-19T00:00:00 | 2019-05-17T00:00:00 | 0.6393 |
a476adb2 | Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023? | Boolean question | no | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-05-27T00:00:00 | 0.7195 |
97698070 | Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law? | Boolean question | no | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2019-06-13T00:00:00 | 0.6699 |
6c5f6c72 | Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-02-29T00:00:00 | 2019-05-15T00:00:00 | 0.6675 |
0e48cba7 | Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-06-18T00:00:00 | 0.7238 |
fce16888 | Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-08-25T00:00:00 | 2019-07-02T00:00:00 | 0.4174 |
cd5d5766 | Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-01T00:00:00 | 2019-07-10T00:00:00 | 0.5259 |
cb4ac4a7 | Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX? | Boolean question | no | 2020-05-30T00:00:00 | 2019-07-10T00:00:00 | 0.6401 |
221a5429 | Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-10-01T00:00:00 | 2019-07-16T00:00:00 | 0.6565 |
fcde52d0 | Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-01T00:00:00 | 2019-07-16T00:00:00 | 0.5193 |
c1a64f66 | Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-01-13T00:00:00 | 2019-07-16T00:00:00 | 0.6052 |
1d98655d | Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022? | Boolean question | no | 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-07-19T00:00:00 | 0.5587 |
4e6ee462 | Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-11-01T00:00:00 | 2019-07-25T00:00:00 | 0.4995 |
be978ff5 | British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-29T00:00:00 | 2019-08-02T00:00:00 | 0.479 |
c8ba41f1 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-09-07T00:00:00 | 2019-08-07T00:00:00 | 0.6095 |
d0efaaae | When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched? | timeframe prediction | 2021-12-25 | 2021-12-25T00:00:00 | 2019-08-15T00:00:00 | 0.7019 |
5651b9f4 | Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-19T00:00:00 | 2019-08-17T00:00:00 | 0.5167 |
4383613f | When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI? | timeframe prediction | above_upper_bound | 2020-09-24T00:00:00 | 2019-08-19T00:00:00 | 0.7158 |
1b59a55b | When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human? | timeframe prediction | 2022-02-06 | 2022-02-06T00:00:00 | 2019-08-28T00:00:00 | 0.4706 |
243cec63 | Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25 | quantity estimation | 2359 | 2021-08-25T00:00:00 | 2019-08-31T00:00:00 | 0.5948 |
69de3533 | Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination? | Boolean question | no | 2020-08-19T00:00:00 | 2019-09-13T00:00:00 | 0.5628 |
cbff5226 | What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022? | quantity estimation | 14 | 2022-07-01T00:00:00 | 2019-09-21T00:00:00 | 0.5265 |
3eb7c792 | Will a new land speed record be set by 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-09-22T00:00:00 | 0.2892 |
ce7850d0 | Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-03T00:00:00 | 2019-09-22T00:00:00 | 0.6781 |
77b3385f | Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-11-04T00:00:00 | 2019-09-24T00:00:00 | 0.3616 |
e21ba1ad | When will at least 20 US states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? | timeframe prediction | 2022-12-09 | 2022-12-09T00:00:00 | 2019-09-24T00:00:00 | 0.5449 |
bea44ff8 | Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-15T00:00:00 | 2019-09-28T00:00:00 | 0.1923 |
4562cf11 | Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-11-07T00:00:00 | 2019-10-02T00:00:00 | 0.5021 |
8f14859f | Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1? | Boolean question | no | 2020-02-02T00:00:00 | 2019-10-03T00:00:00 | 0.4686 |
50b82769 | Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-01T00:00:00 | 2019-10-15T00:00:00 | 0.7019 |
62682637 | Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2019-10-17T00:00:00 | 0.6794 |
3b30635e | By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-05T00:00:00 | 2019-10-27T00:00:00 | 0.6395 |
c21e1923 | How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020? | quantity estimation | 538 | 2020-07-01T00:00:00 | 2019-10-29T00:00:00 | 0.6947 |
80496f08 | Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2021-09-20T00:00:00 | 2019-10-31T00:00:00 | 0.6585 |
4bfd7ed9 | Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-04T00:00:00 | 2019-10-31T00:00:00 | 0.4321 |
f1fc76a9 | When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players? | timeframe prediction | above_upper_bound | 2023-12-12T00:00:00 | 2019-11-01T00:00:00 | 0.5935 |
6eda90b8 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-02T00:00:00 | 2019-11-01T00:00:00 | 0.6841 |
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