Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_comments

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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94p3pvi99qb
false
qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Best insider trade I've ever gotten to make lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M.H.
xkKZRrQ3jHNwJOAi7JHM
public
contract
1,716,264,375,873
will-i-get-into-y-combinator
MilfordHammerschmidt
https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f
Will I get into Y Combinator (tonight)?
null
0.48259
1,540.497702
YES
null
cv1zpnozmj
false
fnwAFcv8dmgu6hgxQiL2AhQrZkE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if his favorability holds perfectly steady?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joltin_Joe
a5Ialv2XlHTcMZWxUgP4
public
contract
1,716,264,543,640
will-trump-be-found-guilty-will-tru
Joltin_Joe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJoEt4HVKsXQgvE0oZFXUuOodwOKJK2Mo139VNdSBMX=s96-c
Will Trump be found guilty? / Will Trump’s favorability increase?
null
null
null
null
null
ejqu92ay94g
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "94p3pvi99qb", "label": "MilfordHammerschmidt", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Done deal?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
xkKZRrQ3jHNwJOAi7JHM
public
contract
1,716,264,625,572
will-i-get-into-y-combinator
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will I get into Y Combinator (tonight)?
94p3pvi99qb
0.48259
1,293.437473
YES
null
1vn5zo8dj89
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I've subsidised this market Ṁ50k, but I will close it at time of launch so that I recoup some subsidy at resolution time.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,264,928,948
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
null
0.489994
279.063885
NO
null
d0np71ietbn
false
8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How afraid are the mods of Manifold being banned in China...?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul Benjamin (Photographer)
VUqgCYoN1MMGXMFV9SYA
public
contract
1,716,264,952,916
is-xi-jinping-mentally-retarded
PaulBenjaminPhotographer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1AhhJ_quHzrZOxShvfbdjIYp4YKf7CSu9fvZ2xr3lOHIc=s96-c
Is Xi Jinping mentally retarded?
null
null
null
null
null
rp5cvs56ie8
false
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fz72XkaOteA.png?alt=media&token=91b77347-7419-4f7b-be2d-5d2f5a8f33dd", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM
public
contract
1,716,265,237,733
will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
Tumbles
https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
null
0.075983
478,815.99212
NO
null
o9z4zhbcv9
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://media4.giphy.com/media/a2G83cq7gotnq/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1camtbb8dk92y5rhjwxsy9kj4fue0f47rorizqqb2ig&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM
public
contract
1,716,265,769,350
will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
rp5cvs56ie8
0.075983
20,564.966324
YES
null
knylvh312jn
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will someone create a debate market on a particular subject, resolved by polling anyone who commented, by the end of June?", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "was thinking this as an alternative to my last debate market. idea is you pick a contentious subject for users to debate in the comments & see if manifold can reach a consensus by the close date", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,716,265,968,051
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
null
null
null
null
null
0ci6kmx4u5i
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This was resolved too early. Need confirmation from the state. There could be rejected signatures.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
xmobVf0OKrQtev8ky8rE
public
contract
1,716,266,156,241
will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-texa
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…497-f98cb9862793
Will RFK Jr. make the ballot in Texas for the 2024 Presidential election?
null
null
null
null
null
imoowrkmrx
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
xmobVf0OKrQtev8ky8rE
public
contract
1,716,266,240,907
will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-texa
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…497-f98cb9862793
Will RFK Jr. make the ballot in Texas for the 2024 Presidential election?
0ci6kmx4u5i
null
null
null
null
yzxcazed7si
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "imoowrkmrx", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " shoot - sorry! I looked at a couple of articles but missed that part. I've unresolved (heads up to ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ") and thanks Nikki. I've extended the close date to the end of the month for now - should it be longer?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
xmobVf0OKrQtev8ky8rE
public
contract
1,716,266,320,863
will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-texa
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will RFK Jr. make the ballot in Texas for the 2024 Presidential election?
0ci6kmx4u5i
1
10.695169
YES
null
96x2vf1ewib
false
qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ejqu92ay94g", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " \"Acceptances are given via Zoom. If we decide not to fund you, we’ll send an email explaining why.\" - From their interview page for people invited. Got a meeting tomorrow morning w/ partners", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M.H.
xkKZRrQ3jHNwJOAi7JHM
public
contract
1,716,266,404,103
will-i-get-into-y-combinator
MilfordHammerschmidt
https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f
Will I get into Y Combinator (tonight)?
94p3pvi99qb
0.48259
1,540.497702
YES
null
zbg8zincskd
false
M63b31OYF3YABVaQBvlCwN9B4pn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "in-cell-link", "href": "https://basketballlegends.pro/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "basketball legends ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What do you think about this issue?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
McGee Joanna
evi4ahl2DS8rHqzFZ0V4
public
contract
1,716,266,451,759
will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-51f434dc1a87
McGeeJoanna
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLq7W9iNarNPbQIuD_x_yt28-Kg4zBAP1tx0lBaZwAKD7Ntyg=s96-c
Will there be a successful coup in Russia by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
bzxtgoc903
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't think there was. Limit orders on NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/20/iran-president-helicopter-crash-news/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Wapo:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3VBQn5ciQP.png?alt=media&token=0a777bb4-d5cf-41b3-b788-002831b5c870", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
0L981aL2uOI17I12f1hV
public
contract
1,716,266,555,928
was-there-foul-play-involved-in-the-921600f3aeff
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Was there foul play involved in the crash of Ebrahim Raisi?
null
0.147614
1,112.062858
NO
null
caoquk1kg7v
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "96x2vf1ewib", "label": "MilfordHammerschmidt", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Preliminary congratulations! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
xkKZRrQ3jHNwJOAi7JHM
public
contract
1,716,266,653,377
will-i-get-into-y-combinator
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will I get into Y Combinator (tonight)?
94p3pvi99qb
0.48259
1,852.270274
YES
null
3ktbtxc7a8
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A blockade that results in Taiwan under duress agreeing to be ruled by the CCP would count as \"forceful takeover\" even though it's not a duration, right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW
public
contract
1,716,266,858,709
if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?
null
0.476915
986.446165
YES
null
amynvyyndjp
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This one is so hard. Marijuana to a 17yr old is 🤷🏼‍♂️ while fentanyl to a toddler is clearly terrible.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,267,036,255
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
null
null
31.358007
YES
d7b2d5f5aff8
10bjkdog85te
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5ta1xetkr5t", "label": "Odoacre", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Worse: this precedence send the message that private profit and pubic risk is indeed the pattern to assume going forward and encourages future behavior like the one that caused the mess. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,267,160,393
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
sqcenuq7og
null
31.358007
YES
d7b2d5f5aff8
w6kl4snhkr
false
287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I made it to Idyllwild (mile 179) this afternoon. So far, the only persistent problem is I’m not getting as much sleep as usual.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rick
kjHFPUnKWrEYk0808yyP
public
contract
1,716,267,317,812
how-far-will-i-make-it-on-the-pct-m
meefburger
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c
How far will I make it on the PCT? (miles)
null
null
881.522938
YES
6a413b8e5d0a
nquwl7tzns
false
13plihwXYbcbcOexVdT6FwxILnn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
siraben
O4GIN0K8eCjgYo58LUrz
public
contract
1,716,267,506,842
will-yale-commencement-2024-be-canc
siraben
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs4A4vujbdVB1d-wqB5ZbOQIv-B3jMwt3yjf6luBMT=s96-c
Will Yale Commencement 2024 be cancelled due to pro-Palestinian protests?
null
0.01
1,011.700473
NO
null
l4ytdqziys
false
fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I recommend \"Doin' Your Mom\" for anyone considering field research on this topic.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zac Parker
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
public
contract
1,716,267,530,974
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
ZacParker
https://firebasestorage.…4d0-dbaec72eff5e
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
null
null
null
null
null
cilitcg3chi
false
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This market is reflexive ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MP
XiSVdk1SK7iN8TlCz7h2
public
contract
1,716,268,349,013
will-a-decisive-verdict-in-the-trum
MP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
Will a decisive verdict in the Trump trial cause a 5pt change in Biden's odds in the subsequent 7 days?
null
null
null
null
null
wk03s2b31sq
false
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Here's a reflexive market for all marginal price settlers. Do you plan to bid this market subsequent to the verdict?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-a-decisive-verdict-in-the-trum", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
MP
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,716,268,421,935
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
MP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
0.491883
380.737156
YES
null
j1ycspg2i8p
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " feel free to suggest names to add, I know it's expensive at Ṁ250 right now. If I think it's likely they'll trade above 10% I'll add them.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
9U9zcIYWE1m52Rb9Z0X8
public
contract
1,716,268,701,593
who-will-be-the-next-permanent-pres
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Who will be the next permanent President of Iran?
null
null
430.064942
YES
6a214c4b835f
nd5x6vapck
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Red wave!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m
public
contract
1,716,268,962,078
will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)
null
0.880706
28.053077
YES
null
dntjj9n7ci7
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1vn5zo8dj89", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Note that the subsidy has not taken effect yet - it usually takes effect over an hour or two, but at the moment Manifold has a problem with applying subsidies. Hopefully fixed soon.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Edit: subsidy has taken effect now!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,268,995,058
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
1vn5zo8dj89
0.489994
279.063885
NO
null
9qb2dwc1ucg
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The martians!!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,269,017,238
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
null
0.489994
29.159097
YES
null
s1qq2ec5aco
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Shhh!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,716,269,062,001
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
null
0.650202
111.7068
NO
null
tw1sl0ghu2r
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Liberty bibbity!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,716,269,141,221
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
null
null
384.956252
YES
042c402d8aef
72tgckpuju
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bombs over bagdag!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
public
contract
1,716,269,236,240
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
null
null
78.340016
YES
da786cd38018
8or0u9eya24
false
0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I note that ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.instagram.com/eunseoooo97/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Eunseo", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "'s ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.instagram.com/reel/C4iP0jvBUOW/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "reel", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (who explicitly identifies as an AI model) got 15M views, just as an example of Instagram reels reaching 10M views. It does not resolve this market, for example it is not 45 seconds long.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there a simple way to get the length of Instagram reels? In this case the video is obviously too short, but I can imagine there would be ambiguous cases. I couldn't find one.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Seo Sanghyeon
9KvkpyonZ2LH7hjXa5Fz
public
contract
1,716,269,271,780
will-an-ai-generated-instagram-vide
SanghyeonSeo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c
Will an AI generated Instagram video reach 10M views before 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
4by5ecj2zzd
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I see no changes wake up in the morning and I ask myself....", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
9U9zcIYWE1m52Rb9Z0X8
public
contract
1,716,269,334,889
who-will-be-the-next-permanent-pres
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
Who will be the next permanent President of Iran?
null
null
57.750458
YES
6a214c4b835f
9dus9v1743s
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vzwgzxz9hx", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Today I think I hurt a spider while trying to move it outside, which felt awful. Sometimes I wish Brian was right about experiences/suffering being imaginary/fictional. That would be a much easier world to live in.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,269,413,885
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
k3lox0tifmk
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Red wave!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,716,269,614,413
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
null
null
6,242.186012
YES
181a19ba37bb
y6fmzu61jn
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2024 Manifold University Rankings", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Vote on various options for higher education (or alternatives)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves to % based on holders?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ismellpillows
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,716,269,844,348
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
null
null
null
null
null
xmat5xfngwf
false
287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w6kl4snhkr", "label": "meefburger", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " And so far I’ve skipped about 2 miles: 1 from walking through Mount Laguna instead of taking the trail around, and 1 from getting picked up and dropped off at different spots along the highway when hitchhiking into Julian Anna back.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rick
kjHFPUnKWrEYk0808yyP
public
contract
1,716,269,943,118
how-far-will-i-make-it-on-the-pct-m
meefburger
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c
How far will I make it on the PCT? (miles)
w6kl4snhkr
null
881.522938
YES
6a413b8e5d0a
bfflucpkgoa
false
CWwlhIixbParh98J2cv1WbzzXdB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Jason Clinton (CISO from Anthropic) on ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40411115", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Hacker News", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ":", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ASL-3 seems somewhat likely within the next 6-9 months. Maybe 50% odds, by my guess.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" } ], "type": "doc" }
causal_agency
Qpmd6PARgocmESV0q8RA
public
contract
1,716,270,009,262
will-any-llm-released-by-eoy-2024-b
causal_agency
https://firebasestorage.…4d6-733e72d9efa8
Will any LLM released by EOY 2024 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
null
null
null
null
null
mopfe3zpjlr
false
ArkifWXHhRXUMNAXZszPr4VFCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Let's go", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kane bloodworth
TlAwFxpxKC9rP2hZkCtf
public
contract
1,716,270,150,452
who-will-win-the-georgia-state-supr
kanebloodworth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVER5nigkMsQUiVeGU007MINesg9Ksr1J4qu3oZ-rHtZY=s96-c
Who will win the Georgia State Supreme Court election?
null
null
6.604247
YES
d2631b7f9996
s33xocg1uni
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xmat5xfngwf", "label": "meefburger", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " oh nice! did you start on the 11th as planned? I love that you're updating along the way. ✨ ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
kjHFPUnKWrEYk0808yyP
public
contract
1,716,270,487,347
how-far-will-i-make-it-on-the-pct-m
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How far will I make it on the PCT? (miles)
w6kl4snhkr
null
null
null
null
kah5x046ub
false
287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "s33xocg1uni", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yep, I started on the 11th, though my shuttle didn’t get there until about noon, so I didn’t get a full day of hiking in.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rick
kjHFPUnKWrEYk0808yyP
public
contract
1,716,270,591,466
how-far-will-i-make-it-on-the-pct-m
meefburger
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c
How far will I make it on the PCT? (miles)
w6kl4snhkr
null
881.522938
YES
6a413b8e5d0a
ctqcg6mm9r
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe the best solution to this is actually traditional marriage?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's basically like the story that Noah tells, but without the breakup at the end to make things difficult.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,271,854,511
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
f99bvr6sjd6
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Gen/f1-who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is the only other market on the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix I've added some other interesting questions on points scoring, those people and places I think will be most interesting.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
ISAYCjIc3XjsVRA6OkKS
public
contract
1,716,271,885,356
what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
What will be true of the Monaco GP weekend?
null
null
224.441113
YES
ac58c5ec01d7
dzwply80w2n
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "follow up tweet lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FnR_ufTsgUa.12?alt=media&token=cf74bcc2-d090-4daf-8b62-56f4b707d940", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,271,987,420
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
ctqcg6mm9r
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
ytndiargb7
false
1BZZKljhfHSkhWzeJUqBJhtbXBR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k3lox0tifmk", "label": "kanebloodworth", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i remember when red wave said last time and it failed... i think people might not want to say red wave just in case it doesn't happen. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joseph Martin jr 3rd (coyote)
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,716,271,997,960
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
JosephMartinjr3rdcoyote
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYHEoSJhMZcvnN9yuWzkizawSdtWDLPWktMcJ1XCA=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
k3lox0tifmk
null
305.967192
YES
fe76c622f53d
0ytoej6js5hk
false
CWwlhIixbParh98J2cv1WbzzXdB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this asking about a particular country or globally? AI safety in the UK might be more associated with the Conservative Party at present.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
causal_agency
s4ejYnZuqTZQXbJpTVJ8
public
contract
1,716,272,115,838
if-ai-safety-is-divided-by-leftrigh
causal_agency
https://firebasestorage.…4d6-733e72d9efa8
If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?
null
null
null
null
null
pkxzfw8h9o
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xd3iv8hvia", "label": "AnishaZaveri", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " This is true, I liked them a lot, and even 10k mana is only ~10 dollars. I've added some more options with Kevin Burke not making markets.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
ISAYCjIc3XjsVRA6OkKS
public
contract
1,716,272,182,808
what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
What will be true of the Monaco GP weekend?
xn607pjt5po
null
224.441113
YES
ac58c5ec01d7
vhw0hufu8mh
false
OKqe8TdiCrZyBatF9uvCmw9oAFS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Website says their mission is \"understanding the universe\"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If this is true and they have cracked people they might actually pull through ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
coffee icecubes
lfTqSpevzgUGsEQDZUSp
public
contract
1,716,272,247,941
will-xai-reach-major-lab-status
coffeeicecubes
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6ViF7qlZ1NRbukX3tLwRBnfWddP-nLE5PnEh9v=s96-c
Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?
null
0.423995
16.815343
NO
null
j9pt4k784m
false
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Come fill my biased limit order ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Chee
ogU0kVGmYZ346MUB2pSh
public
contract
1,716,272,268,551
the-pivot-will-manifold-ever-give-a
SirSalty
https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
[The Pivot] Will Manifold ever give a cash payout from Prize Points?
null
null
null
null
null
3w3r6fezpt
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sgurdextpws", "label": "KevinBurke", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm quite convinced you won't make the mana cost back in trading fees. You'd have to make these markets at a loss. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Genzy, what are you trying to learn? I'm interested.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But you not making these markets does mean I will add some more options to my market: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/Fedor/what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/Fedor/what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT
public
contract
1,716,272,302,628
who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
sgurdextpws
null
null
null
null
36liuv6ohms
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dzwply80w2n", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm a long way from 50, but I hope my wife and I will be doing more interesting things then...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,272,314,457
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
ctqcg6mm9r
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
lrgn72mm76d
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zwq3onjzw6l", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Manifold literally refunds you your subsidy when you resolve a market. You can test this by making a coinflip market, you will get your 1000 mana back when it resolves", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,716,272,359,347
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
k3vy71diqe
null
null
null
null
98zbf14f8x4
false
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Okay but what if I order a Waymo and keep adding multiple stops to take me in circles around the Bay Area. With SF traffic maybe I'd manage 3 full loops.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Chee
nkCPw69BHXGDq5x8pqlv
public
contract
1,716,272,632,159
will-i-be-able-to-complete-a-10-hou
SirSalty
https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
bowuwt7w6sp
false
OKqe8TdiCrZyBatF9uvCmw9oAFS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How will this resolve in the case of something sleep-like such as meditation entirely replacing sleep", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
coffee icecubes
m0Xx7aR6bTrE9wyJ2liO
public
contract
1,716,272,731,075
will-sleep-be-needed-to-live-and-fu
coffeeicecubes
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6ViF7qlZ1NRbukX3tLwRBnfWddP-nLE5PnEh9v=s96-c
Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
t4m6hzsngag
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fltzh2Vr86L.jpg?alt=media&token=8c8a94ef-d674-44bb-a6f3-cf95137cb936", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hell of a week!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
YD6X8zuOTlnonIunQsfM
public
contract
1,716,272,800,469
will-openai-hit-50-of-its-previous
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will "OpenAI" hit 50% of its previous all-time high search interest this week? (US Google Trends)
null
null
null
null
null
4grlmh2gptj
false
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Surely if there is such a high chance of a depeg you should just short USDT with max leverage as there is no reason it would ever go above but most definitely could go below.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't get it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Chee
VaUvbmkfMf6IRM9aotT6
public
contract
1,716,272,836,673
will-usdt-ever-unpeg-to-less-than-0
SirSalty
https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
Will USDT ever un-peg to less than 0.9 USD (90 cents)?
null
null
null
null
null
trg7dbl418j
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Aw. Hopefully at some point normies will realize demos are fake.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Forrest Taylor
YD6X8zuOTlnonIunQsfM
public
contract
1,716,272,889,547
will-openai-hit-50-of-its-previous
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
Will "OpenAI" hit 50% of its previous all-time high search interest this week? (US Google Trends)
null
0.982232
9.466454
NO
null
nxrgz71qjd9
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Gonna be very tight", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eric
EK0ndYE1iCgdJxFXTCf5
public
contract
1,716,272,915,109
will-mrbeasts-channel-be-the-most-s
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will MrBeast's channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel at the end of July first 2024?
null
0.39
322.864596
NO
null
5ilgvx9fn9f
false
vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They would have done it by now. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Forrest Taylor
RtTPZ1fIeRBQWnfuht9v
public
contract
1,716,273,024,899
will-iran-accuse-israel-of-causing
TiredCliche
https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661
Will Iran accuse Israel of causing the Iranian president's helicopter to crash?
null
0.23
2,086.381143
NO
null
o2amz7u4h59
false
KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w6kl4snhkr", "label": "meefburger", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Appreciate the update!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
snazzlePop
kjHFPUnKWrEYk0808yyP
public
contract
1,716,273,806,133
how-far-will-i-make-it-on-the-pct-m
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
How far will I make it on the PCT? (miles)
w6kl4snhkr
null
50.110147
YES
6a413b8e5d0a
326p49e8uq4
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Someone should make a dashboard for predictions from Elon.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This seems extremely unlikely. But that also means this market isn't really worth betting on right now, since it won't resolve for ten years.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
rgmSDQVXpfgIWGingOri
public
contract
1,716,274,949,328
will-this-tweet-hold-up-i-predict-t
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.
null
null
null
null
null
w144rdzq4qd
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What's the point of these markets? (I don't mean this in a dismissive way. I genuinely am curious)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
ntrts8wCTG4JSzUIKubO
public
contract
1,716,275,026,858
hourly-coinflip-limits-at-51-49
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Daily coinflip with better odds (Limits at 51, 49)
null
null
null
null
null
x7jrxqor1op
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "326p49e8uq4", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " or less if it happens ;)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
rgmSDQVXpfgIWGingOri
public
contract
1,716,275,033,935
will-this-tweet-hold-up-i-predict-t
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.
326p49e8uq4
null
null
null
null
r9a9x4lwq
false
taDKLmUlu7flqU5ogkAdP6UMVdE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "By recognize ICC jurisdiction you mean also countries that signed but didn't ratify the Rome statues (e.g the U.S)?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Magyk
GUOdVh1FxxTsw4VYptME
public
contract
1,716,276,005,359
conditional-on-a-warrant-will-netan
Magyk
https://firebasestorage.…a5b-6d5f49ebe543
Conditional on a warrant, will Netanyahu visit at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction within 6 months?
null
null
null
null
null
8bn935fd7yl
false
cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not sure where the problem lies here but I got a referral bonus today, the notification says that I was sent 1000 Mana while I actually got 1000 Prize points so I believe either the notification or the payout is wrong.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Oskar
ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI
public
contract
1,716,276,176,146
bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs
nollfem
https://firebasestorage.…ed3-456eeb0513f5
Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs
null
null
null
null
null
1njt7yvtcax
false
4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What happens if there's a settlement and it's not disclosed whether there was money involved", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tripping
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
public
contract
1,716,276,224,160
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
Tripping
https://firebasestorage.…25f-2823bd2dce88
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
iv52bw0j7l
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p41hdeq12af", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " perhaps Manifold should be run a little bit as a futarchy, but there's no way in hell the values being optimized for should be decided by users. That's the company's job.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
fgI9vwLvzvjhwnhoPNGU
public
contract
1,716,276,668,815
who-should-run-manifold
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Who should run Manifold?
gj2gdo0d6cm
null
null
null
null
l20ckawrkoo
false
SzZqo3IM11akXu3OdmN1l42keK73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves \"yes\" if there's a donation to a charity that she nominates?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Trevor Andersen
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
public
contract
1,716,277,437,909
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
TrevorAndersen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-kVRz85js5EJb-WmAtxQrIi8Z9F58Z89-Y-md8aw=s96-c
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
jqug3cx5mnn
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Here's my encouragement, you can bet Yes to give yourself extra incentive :) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But seriously, late game is hard 😭", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
PglBs5rcGHkotQZL76ik
public
contract
1,716,277,529,483
will-panfilo-finish-baba-is-you-by
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
mo8l1z001al
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I hope Pogacar takes the starting line and attacks from km 0.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
UrrbK5xWw7MH8oJ5WMTy
public
contract
1,716,277,865,363
will-stage-16-of-the-2024-giro-dita
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will Stage 16 of the 2024 Giro d'Italia be ridden in full?
null
50
437.559324
NO
null
l4ksys9hpo
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If the riders ride at least 200km of the planned route, resolves Yes.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Point of clarification: This exception for 6km changing is in case there is some discrepancy where the riders need to take a very small detour of no consequence. Skipping an entire mountain pass would always resolve No. If they just needed to pass a different street or someone brings out a GPS file and says they did a roundabout the wrong way, it can still be Yes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
UrrbK5xWw7MH8oJ5WMTy
public
contract
1,716,277,929,030
will-stage-16-of-the-2024-giro-dita
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will Stage 16 of the 2024 Giro d'Italia be ridden in full?
null
50
437.559324
NO
null
uaekdu1c7pi
false
HpqjfDrXFYdI6GDxHdYQ5zLX2Mr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FECV0VFvuuJ.00?alt=media&token=53fbb343-48c9-409d-9587-78a2a9c74f45", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "May 1st, 2024", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ricky
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,716,278,527,111
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
Ricky30235
https://storage.googleap…HdYQ5zLX2Mr2.png
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
null
0.402696
554.745554
YES
null
zherrw1hha
false
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "umy3457zr5", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yes for exactly the same reason.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alex B. Goode
IidA9TN3ii1NbJANLjEQ
public
contract
1,716,278,789,016
if-manifold-asked-to-convert-one-of
AlexbGoode
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
If Manifold asked to convert one of your markets to pay out Prize Points instead of Mana, would you say Yes? Why?
umy3457zr5
null
null
null
null
39adm5f0ijr
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Metaculus is at 99% on the issue of the arrest warrant. I think they misread and did not take into account that proposal did not go through the court yet.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Edit: I confused questions, that statement is wrong.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,279,317,064
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
null
null
null
null
null
kcncd6hpqr
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hcpigjv6pr", "label": "CaseyTheGripLord", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Do I assume correctly that only one option will resolve as yes? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
public
contract
1,716,279,323,686
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
2hwvf9w37d9
null
51.509183
NO
e744119805f2
9t663vfqfb
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Who are in this other bucket?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0xSMW
WeQr3ssIS2fgiXTn2hPs
public
contract
1,716,279,461,124
who-will-release-a-gpt4o-comparable
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Who will release a GPT-4o comparable model in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
ay2iitypa14
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would it already be helpful if someone took over one day per week, e. g. if I took over Fridays?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
cBYlDCWtUzsnZ5vue2SH
public
contract
1,716,279,600,482
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-137a2059b5be
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
What will be true of the xkcd on Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
s51syr14j2k
false
mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qxquzytz6fn", "label": "AdityaGupta4830", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Apologies. I was busy for the last two weeks. How should I resolve the no result game? The n/a option seems to have been removed. 50%?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Awex
WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm
public
contract
1,716,279,783,409
ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f
Awex
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEJSiCXiS_kZhfU5yXKmqFem_U5QpZW21S2Qrt9yAVdXM=s96-c
🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game.
qxquzytz6fn
null
2,309.689187
YES
9da0aec5cf3f
62n2uj6x6au
false
mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "First Play-Off Match tonight. I have added 1000 mana to the pool. 500 mana will go to the trader with the highest profit. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Awex
WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm
public
contract
1,716,279,961,263
ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f
Awex
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEJSiCXiS_kZhfU5yXKmqFem_U5QpZW21S2Qrt9yAVdXM=s96-c
🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game.
null
null
2,309.689187
YES
9da0aec5cf3f
ei7pepk59u
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u5lciqf8ryg", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'll extend it if it looks like we won't have an answer until after that date.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simon Grayson
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,280,101,507
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
u5lciqf8ryg
null
null
null
null
6m2do6ujzlw
false
sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Already happen in Hong Kong.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Carlos
2kMT6Qfj8WpbUQ8rROWY
public
contract
1,716,280,419,290
will-an-eth-etf-get-approved-in-202
Carlosab83
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c
Will an ETH ETF get approved in 2024?
null
0.832613
59.152865
YES
null
dx4jad4jv5g
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Elizabeth Banks got her test for the same substance ruled No Fault, and got no suspension:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://lizzybanks.co.uk/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://lizzybanks.co.uk/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If she can get off with this test, Hessman should also be able to. I actually wonder if her case's turnaround is actually related to a parallel path Hessman may be pursuing. Maybe we will hear more on Hessman soon.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
fMjKRTHwBJxizYsR8P81
public
contract
1,716,280,591,640
doping-case-guilt-tracker-cycling
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Doping case guilt tracker - Cycling + Triathlon
null
null
70.01583
NO
509f91face7d
idn7et7npbb
false
sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/hong-kong-spot-crypto-etfs-debut-6-things", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Hong Kong spot crypto ETFs debut tomorrow: 6 things to know (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "http://cointelegraph.com", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "cointelegraph.com", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/hong-kong-spot-crypto-etfs-debut-6-things", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": ")", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Carlos
2kMT6Qfj8WpbUQ8rROWY
public
contract
1,716,281,299,388
will-an-eth-etf-get-approved-in-202
Carlosab83
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c
Will an ETH ETF get approved in 2024?
null
0.849825
176.314541
YES
null
l9z14vwdkx
false
sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Before or same day?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Carlos
C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef
public
contract
1,716,281,325,767
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a
Carlosab83
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
esw0c431tif
false
HpqjfDrXFYdI6GDxHdYQ5zLX2Mr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uaekdu1c7pi", "label": "Ricky30235", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Elon Musk 46 vs Kanye West 45 May 1st", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ricky
aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
public
contract
1,716,281,353,716
will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than
Ricky30235
https://storage.googleap…HdYQ5zLX2Mr2.png
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
uaekdu1c7pi
0.646391
3,789.826019
YES
null
gtuak599x5
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9dus9v1743s", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yesterday I smacked one dead with my slipper. It doesn't feel pain or emotional suffering and doesn't have a family that will grieve for it. My only concern is to not disturb the ecosystem at my place too much or other bugs might start to appear.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,281,406,438
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
o6asxayioch
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "39adm5f0ijr", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " That doesn't make any sense unless they're using a very different definition to how I would understand that question!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The market here seems about right - ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo", "label": "/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simon Grayson
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,281,768,773
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
39adm5f0ijr
null
null
null
null
iaxa48exx2t
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5bjn7hwy2mb", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " if AI was becoming more dangerous, or the dangers becoming more apparent, we would see more focus on alignment, not less.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
i95HLfK9N6hu5H7orfNj
public
contract
1,716,281,924,360
will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
5bjn7hwy2mb
0.150988
58.321426
NO
null
nw67klzcprj
false
5tRRokoRHXdoiblRaEE6HDguhgB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have generated one AI song that I liked, for my girlfriend - I wrote the lyrics. But it's not suitable for commercialisation, because it's too private and personal - and because the Suno AI voice is too metallic and artificial. I haven't heard any AI-generated music that I like apart from that, and nothing at all that I would consider danceable.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Robin Green
rsJ6b3GGpn3dGnqKHmg7
public
contract
1,716,282,451,111
will-my-dj-set-at-jesscamp-4-contai
RobinGreen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5E-q_bZ3CRRdAyvsBKzjKhaVimPpY3ue3d3lKmaA=s96-c
Will my DJ set at Jesscamp 4 contain any AI-generated music?
null
0.47641
94.465832
NO
null
8qmm5x975
false
DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u83vigiu0s", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Do you mean if, for instance, G20 countries do not introduce a new global wealth or income tax per se but agree on something like: \"We tax billionaires at least an effective tax rate of x%\" (of income or wealth)? I would resolve this as yes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Antoine Dusséaux
EsgvJC0AH9ndWCwWHTvx
public
contract
1,716,282,745,635
will-there-be-a-global-wealth-or-in
adssx
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c
Will there be a global wealth or income tax by 2035?
u83vigiu0s
0.316071
94.465832
YES
null
tcjxn20e56a
false
MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please resolve ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jim
7BgsaIoCypFtsmLyOaPS
public
contract
1,716,282,958,768
will-donald-trump-win-pennsylvanias
JimAusman
https://firebasestorage.…02c-9c3e2d7602ee
Will Donald Trump win Pennsylvania's vote in the 2024 election?
null
0.436261
17.69425
NO
null
r5l0k9s0qnt
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bnjr656a53s", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I saw I forgot to do this so I've made an edit - let me know what you think", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh Wilkes
qycP7JFr5c2bjf7h3HDX
public
contract
1,716,282,969,735
when-will-starship-land-on-a-launch
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
When will Starship land on a launch pad?
6yp4bohcwtx
null
null
null
null
gy2tfe8mins
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Squatted 75kg today, might go for 80kg by the end of the week - it felt like I'd have the strength for it. Will also aim for 24kg dumbell press. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot Davies
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,283,628,960
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
uuhduvgj1r9
false
5tRRokoRHXdoiblRaEE6HDguhgB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves as No if AI-generated music is banned at Jesscamp 4", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Robin Green
rsJ6b3GGpn3dGnqKHmg7
public
contract
1,716,284,226,376
will-my-dj-set-at-jesscamp-4-contai
RobinGreen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5E-q_bZ3CRRdAyvsBKzjKhaVimPpY3ue3d3lKmaA=s96-c
Will my DJ set at Jesscamp 4 contain any AI-generated music?
null
0.47641
94.465832
NO
null
zb589a52yl
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dx4jad4jv5g", "label": "Eliza", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I haven't been up to date, but appearently the German prosecutor stopped their investigation in January, because they haven't found any evidence. [Even before I wrote my last comment 🤣 ) It is likely NADA will do it as well. 10% seems to be a good probability for now.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.globalcyclingnetwork.com/racing/news/michel-hessmann-wont-face-criminal-charges-as-investigation-is-dropped", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.globalcyclingnetwork.com/racing/news/michel-hessmann-wont-face-criminal-charges-as-investigation-is-dropped", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
fMjKRTHwBJxizYsR8P81
public
contract
1,716,284,605,521
doping-case-guilt-tracker-cycling
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Doping case guilt tracker - Cycling + Triathlon
dx4jad4jv5g
null
9.166667
YES
509f91face7d
6mel2s5eg6d
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vcwaxeexdus", "label": "HarrisonLucas", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " makes sense !!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Soli ꩜
Nv4zEpFbzJiqWAsBsyDK
public
contract
1,716,284,733,700
eliezer-yudkowsky-irrelevant-by-203
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
xu2hndbbvo
null
null
null
null
9x7j8zkx8t
false
1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qbmis19cmwk", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 3:03:20 ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://kick.com/video/04887d3e-b8ba-4d5a-8e20-3d9c251613cb", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://kick.com/video/04887d3e-b8ba-4d5a-8e20-3d9c251613cb", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duN
mu0tcUZVbnwc6ezmXcbv
public
contract
1,716,285,020,821
which-of-these-people-will-destiny
dgga
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc
Which of these people will Destiny talk to before the end of 2024?
qbmis19cmwk
null
2,596.852722
YES
0016ae7389e5
3eoh8es93pu
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lrgn72mm76d", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " wait WHAT‽ Why did nobody tell me before I made 90% of my markets resolve years from now lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,716,285,272,077
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
k3vy71diqe
0.605225
15.547562
YES
null
iu836ea192
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Well that was fast. Kid is missing daycare today due to pink eye after just one week at daycare. 🌸👁️ Thanks traders for preparing me for this reality!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Glidden
pYlgQEFfJjTHfgHgZm82
public
contract
1,716,285,981,470
when-will-my-son-first-bring-home-a
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
When will my son first bring home a sickness from daycare?
null
null
14.961516
YES
0c0442c86c92
mrzex06q4z
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "NHL semis added", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Glidden
0V6u8KeetBmJKk6JSsNr
public
contract
1,716,286,079,926
-major-sporting-events
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
🏟️ Major Sporting Events
null
null
310.237581
NO
c1106d71e913
aub1q86f7ar
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Deleted. I must have misread question.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,286,131,760
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
39adm5f0ijr
0.220732
68.298317
NO
null