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qzthmn15czi
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
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"text": " Ah, I read the former as he gave up $85 of his networth. Maybe it was as you see it, though.",
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],
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|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,353,381 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
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Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
q49xthsaxq
| 0.697633 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
rogvpqyi3z
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
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"text": "Look, I didn't think about this too deeply, so I am just trying a couple options to see what sticks.",
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"text": "I am skeptical of this strategy but fair enough, I appreciate your points.",
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"text": "For the second paragraph, yeah, the security dilemma idea makes some sense to me. If there are two advanced AIs with similar capabilities, they probably can overcome the security dilemma, and manage a long-term peaceful coexistence. It may even be easier with more actors, since the balance is more easily maintained. I think my position relies on the fact that reaching that stable equilibrium, with lots of very powerful ais (ais that have reached some physics-based equilibrium where they can't rly be militarily more powerful with the same amount of energy, they're at the limit of the physical laws) is very unlikely, because if one AI gets to a point where it can scale in capability on its own, it reaches the limit, many orders of magnitude above current humanity power, quickly enough that it can stop other ais from reaching that point as well. the outcome you mentioned is still a plausible one, and one worth considering.",
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"text": "For the 3rd paragraph, I agree with pretty much all of what you said, and capable ais that have non-opposite utility functions will probably be able to avoid wars, or only allow it at some small probability",
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"text": "Decentralization and independence also gets more likely with interplanetary conquest due to communication limitations.",
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"text": "That seems true. If powerful AIs are developped in 300 years by the time we've colonized mars, and it takes 3 weeks to go back and forth, that makes stable multi-agent equilibriums slightly more likely. But this seems unlikely to happen, overall.",
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"text": "It might also matter how pednatic are you about the meaning of \"the most natural and probable\"",
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"text": "Roughly, I'm meaning something like \"probability is higher than 30%, and is the thing with the highest individual probability\". To account for two separate scenarios:",
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"text": "lots of possible outcomes, all 1%, and this one outcome is 30% likely; it seems fair to call it the most natural and probable outcome",
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"text": "3 possible outcomes, 35%/35%/30%, it seems wrong to call the 30% one the most probable outcome",
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|
Bayesian
|
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,384,763 |
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
|
Bayesian
|
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
|
afxq2u2if6a
| null | null | null | null |
|
3fmr2nwwyis
| false |
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
|
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"text": "Should resolve Yes. ",
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bruce
|
8buA67Dx6izur1MmnBIZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,454,503 |
will-bill-belichick-get-a-tv-gig-be
|
Bruce54df
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c
|
Will Bill Belichick get a TV gig before the end of the 2024/25 NFL season?
| null | 0.916664 | 304.170709 |
YES
| null |
27wj27ma0pr
| false |
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
|
{
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"text": " If all casual users buy N/A shares, it won’t affect the price for future users since it doesn’t affect the pool, just like how one user buying into another user’s limit order doesn’t affect the price. However there could be problems with advanced users having bought extra N/A shares and taking them out of the pool.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Gabrielle
|
4aAMke4qGV8p8jTPSYPC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,701,069 |
will-manifold-implement-na-shares-b
|
Gabrielle
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
|
Will Manifold implement N/A shares before September 1?
|
1weu9365xi1
| null | null | null | null |
rmwkr30bto
| false |
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
|
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"text": "I can’t believe that bloated idiot is still popular.",
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{
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"marks": null,
"text": "Same goes for Grimace.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Tricky Duck
|
KB20XEhjjHdpOu1smsBN
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,776,892 |
will-the-grimace-shake-return-to-mc-acfe4e36daed
|
TrickyDuck
|
Will the Grimace shake return to McDonald's in the United States in 2025?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
ru25fd02c3
| false |
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
|
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|
Paper Boy
|
CKCFfI7Hj9eBqRoitwre
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,844,892 |
which-of-these-ncaa-conferences-wil
|
PaperBoy
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
|
Which of these NCAA Conferences will have the most football teams on Jan. 1st 2027?
| null | null | null | null | null |
im3r0xtxhv
| false |
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
|
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|
Paper Boy
|
12n2puETafXcKHHEBXSZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,886,242 |
which-team-will-win-the-202425-ncaa
|
PaperBoy
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
|
Which team will win the 2024/25 NCAA College Football Playoff National Championship?
| null | null | 119.79965 |
NO
|
42f22e6bc160
|
fjtizsrnzad
| false |
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
|
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"text": "A downside of this however is that users can be extra incentivized to make a market resolve to N/A, since they could buy just N/A shares.",
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"text": "Penalize users who create N/A'd questions. Like, increase their price to create further questions, or reduce/eliminate the rewards they get from the N/A'd one, something like that. It'd probably be good to make the penalty decrease with time, for the rare cases where N/A is not the user's fault. ",
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"text": "Low-quality markets is one of Manifold's disadvantages, and penalizing creators of vague markets is one way to address that.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bruno
|
4aAMke4qGV8p8jTPSYPC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,210,997,013 |
will-manifold-implement-na-shares-b
|
BrunoParga
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
|
Will Manifold implement N/A shares before September 1?
| null | null | null | null | null |
c9jxpj94m7d
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
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"text": "Mr Assange, who is currently in Belmarsh Prison, will now have a number of months to prepare his appeal, which will concern whether or not the US courts will protect his right to free speech as an Australian citizen.",
"type": "text"
},
{
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"href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw44l170xdwo",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw44l170xdwo",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Christopher Randles
|
chJvLeJNWJtaCL0xlPAO
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,211,452,505 |
will-julian-assange-be-extradited-t-cd597d116012
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the United States before July 4th 2025?
| null | 0.210682 | 358.633375 |
NO
| null |
741gk0bigmc
| false |
4b0RiIt9EjV7e5QE5Ez9KG9wkym1
|
{
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"text": "Still hasn't exploded yet",
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}
],
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],
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}
|
Crazypedia
|
QABdtevzcPVUL8rGCizY
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,211,732,191 |
what-week-will-t-coronae-borealis-t
|
Crazypedia
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjUmHz2zj3_S0O9iKoI01CyGHSHyupPC4TMhTGNA4Jqp2JUM2Lw-z5x6oQVygXoqEZShQ-348ig6wZmOy3FKhw2xFW6xIgQR3snSkRuJnnG9qXQ6ee0Dm_bk2dObzPevwcmqXbk4gykaWW9bpXT7E3dFMYlPH7z9fpjgzQZkmlzKzUrKp8PES1ZNTeBzNcnRSkO_-pTI2B-HXzU3SiP-m_lDVj9TTYKBwP8eb352F2TVmh_qUvzkVmCtEnyITahN-YeNdjtYkuBWo6kas20l5AIh-fP57c5xh7tK2DuCv4k5JroV-a4ANlSk9SXAh37z9C1Dr4B-UVEGPs-2z63Puz9e4C8CGxIJPfyD8-41stufhYBRUTd5PlksPgp_dBAYWUQL0BLAvBHtgaT0GrVDWF9Vn-ASwuJc3PELakqTMu1Cbpw6fNPKuhavXxV9GjCJyn6kjWEVJa_5hqCBGpzsJ37S3y28xtDx3CetMPa138F7qPpCOCo-1B0cCO4Ozx-zvwUmoSg-N3mYbG1rPkFNwjVVBnfs4mbWuK00gBUQYNZtJNBPXa87fPT5WvQET2KjzQBollEwgtj7z7wXofJlNWpLO4wXB64rYuBFBzQaq-0vxiP46EnyfrvT53UyPcvyyozu9zI87XJHyVImxghelzYovXBpjpY04upmIw4sytkC9FBFYywfES7XJKiJnG5bRVl9q1Uxv-mLcZXvcCjjhxjqC2b7AsNAe0zwn8nWmTVYYVBzMMP9uuLaSKss5E5LE81bmD2B6Je5FzZqVT2Fo-YvChyTpZ8GlyHVq31BmME1dvSjQDmxfixRKRvmZU_Ef23jrofvh97XkZg7kWf0dfVuhTgNSru8nCdK6VsF1rt3KLPehPFmRy9IPzIbGNw7gNsGpjhW0EQzLVZA0sThCfXccLWojc7aJCtSn3ZCXPgpd4Xr=s96-c
|
What week will T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) go nova this year, creating a new 'star' in the night sky?
| null | null | 824.983037 |
YES
|
348e092b4eda
|
fp7ve47rya9
| false |
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
|
{
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"text": "A quick extra observation:",
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"text": "because if one AI gets to a point where it can scale in capability on its own, it reaches the limit, many orders of magnitude above current humanity power, quickly enough that it can stop other ais from reaching that point as well.",
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"text": "This is where this line reasoning ties well with the difficulty curve and engineering hurdles. I don't think AIs are very likely to achieve any sort of extremely fast takeoff, precisely because of the engineering difficulties of doing so. A superhuman AI will still not be able to make more intelligent AI (or factory for more powerful chips, ...) just by armchair speculating. At some point, the ideas will need to be tested against reality and/or executed and this will take real resources and time. More intelligence can definitely lead to more efficient experimentation, but I don't think it can obviate this need altogether. ",
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"text": "So I find the scenario where one actor just runs waaaaay ahead of the others implausible. In fact, there will likely be feedback forces against this - historically, one actor making a technological breakthrough has lead to often significant, but always temporary advantage as others observe the breakthrough, gaining useful insights about the technology allowing them to catch up with less resources than what was needed to find the breakthrough in the first place. AI development is quite likely to be similar.",
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|
Martin Modrák
|
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,211,748,625 |
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
|
MartinModrak
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
|
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
|
afxq2u2if6a
| null | 5.032112 |
YES
|
b7d9c4a65446
|
wp0usai32gk
| false |
vMsWLvZrq4eLI1g13dD53Evifg93
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Either candidate in Vibrams will result in n/a, also nightmares.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
ii
|
piPbVHoSFZx26pGtF36U
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,211,868,513 |
what-will-happen-during-the-2024-pr
|
i_i
|
What will happen during the 2024 Presidential debate? (Add your answer)
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
r8wuff6pyp
| false |
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Still at 17. May be hard to hit 20 before Starship launches because people need Prize Points after the pivot to donate. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Tricky Duck
|
sThSq1dHmaqcwZ6fEPoI
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,211,926,132 |
can-we-explore-space-and-solve-prob
|
TrickyDuck
|
Can we explore space and solve problems on Earth at the same time?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
uu1qjz6wty
| false |
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3fmr2nwwyis",
"label": "Bruce54df",
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"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Apologies for the delay on this, I really would like to resolve this, but I still haven't seen anything official come out about the contract in all of this. Peyton would be the ultimate authority I suppose, but it might still be part of contract negotiations, trying to hype it up so that Belichick is inclined to sign. 99% certain it will resolve YES, but I would really prefer to wait for an official press release or for it to come from Belichick to keep true to resolution criteria in the description.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The Official
|
8buA67Dx6izur1MmnBIZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,211,941,498 |
will-bill-belichick-get-a-tv-gig-be
|
10thOfficial
|
Will Bill Belichick get a TV gig before the end of the 2024/25 NFL season?
|
3fmr2nwwyis
| 0.945478 | 168.682062 |
YES
| null |
|
rx2y2lqx2ok
| false |
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "New season will be released in August. A “Cocaine Beorn” episode is currently rated as most likely.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Tricky Duck
|
3Mfh4OUEs2teq2FUvIXe
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,212,174,608 |
in-rings-of-power-season-2-which-of
|
TrickyDuck
|
In Rings of Power season 2, which of the following rumors will be true?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
lymbrel2efb
| false |
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n1zddcxo3ho",
"label": "AbilAbraham2816",
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks for providing this evidence. Since something could still go wrong, I’ll wait till release to resolve.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
DismalScientist
|
Jj5MTXSjQY9FMXEauHdA
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,212,248,403 |
will-there-be-a-second-season-of-mr
|
DismalScientist
|
Will there be a second season of Mr. and Mrs. Smith (TV series)?
|
div20zeeogd
| null | null | null | null |
|
hofqn3ff49f
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
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},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " tbc, before some kind of fast takeoff if ever there is one, as long as humans are in the loop and do most of the research, I agree with the feedback forces keeping any one company not too far in front of the others. Historical evidence is pretty useful in judging this to be pretty likely, and infosec only goes so far, and probably won't go far enough in the near future.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
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"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
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"text": "As for the first paragraph, I've heard a bunch of engineering ppl say stuff like that, and I'm wondering if, if it was all true, I would be able to notice it so. It seems like clear wisdom on a human scale; that if you're a human, and you see another really smart human go off to do his own thing, even if he's really smart he won't pull ahead of everyone else and end up with more advanced technological innovations or wtv, because everyone gets stuck on hurdles and they really are very hard to overcome, and require lots of people specializing and correcting one another. I am not fully confident that we can reject that analogy when it comes to much more advanced systems, but I think we largely can, and ppl seem to have a strong intuition that the analogy holds, and I suppose my guess is that it doesn't? Bits of evidence aren't treated differently if they're taken as part of some objective sounding engineering test, or if they're just you reading off of wikipedia, or predicting existing data before looking at it, or any other kind of evidence that you can make sense of by generating models that successfully predict it. You cannot obviate the need for experimentation, but you probably can experiment very well if you're clever, even if you're limited in what kind of experiments you can run; which is not to say the ais will be limited in what they can run; if a fast takeoff happens, the ai is likely to be in an environment when it can, in fact, do quick experimentation. Curious where you think this line of reasoning goes wrong.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bayesian
|
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,213,122,202 |
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
|
Bayesian
|
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
|
afxq2u2if6a
| null | null | null | null |
|
hdcrly1pw3c
| false |
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "uu1qjz6wty",
"label": "10thOfficial",
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},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Reasonable approach. Thanks ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bruce
|
8buA67Dx6izur1MmnBIZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,213,146,726 |
will-bill-belichick-get-a-tv-gig-be
|
Bruce54df
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c
|
Will Bill Belichick get a TV gig before the end of the 2024/25 NFL season?
|
3fmr2nwwyis
| 0.99 | 304.170709 |
YES
| null |
5f09484clig
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zlk4hjornys",
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{
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"text": " If you are saying no difference then Hidaya formed 2 May in the Indian Ocean. Also Intense Tropical Cyclone Anggrek 25 Jan 2024 and a few others there, so answer is neither? ;)",
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},
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"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Pacific hurricanes can form in Central or Eastern Pacific. ",
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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},
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Guess James' answer means Typhoons in Western Pacific or any equivalent system anywhere in Pacific count but Indian Ocean does not count.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
1WQMKPMWtEk8PQOKFDVs
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,213,479,762 |
will-there-be-a-hurricane-in-the-at
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will the first hurricane of the 2024 season be in the Atlantic or Pacific
|
5672j8erke3
| null | null | null | null |
2duij60d7wm
| false |
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
|
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"text": " \"it\" refers to the project (not a company) so presumably the two aren't in conflict?",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
stefanie
|
zUgdc9H0H9xjnEjfiCuu
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,213,521,808 |
what-will-be-true-of-ilya-sutskever-34a0d3177ddc
|
shankypanky
|
What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers)
|
mx6qyazkynq
| null | 10.343747 |
YES
|
2880fba4ad84
|
|
xd3iv8hvia
| false |
epZdM9Pyw0PrreR6k0SVTm9AD3Q2
|
{
"content": [
{
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{
"attrs": {
"id": "xn607pjt5po",
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Sad. I liked the multiple options",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Anisha Zaveri
|
ISAYCjIc3XjsVRA6OkKS
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,213,543,293 |
what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp
|
AnishaZaveri
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Sf3T4r685ODul8z1TTPEbpE9hFgu2PJSzpZPj=s96-c
|
What will be true of the Monaco GP weekend?
|
xn607pjt5po
| null | null | null | null |
p3pe03imfea
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
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{
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"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/red-lobster-files-voluntary-chapter-11-petitions-to-strengthen-financial-position-and-maximize-value-for-stakeholders-302149769.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/red-lobster-files-voluntary-chapter-11-petitions-to-strengthen-financial-position-and-maximize-value-for-stakeholders-302149769.html",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
yCmGO6lTmqjLd8wrVGaa
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,213,618,723 |
will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc-c60d3967f150
|
strutheo
|
Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy protection by June 1st 2024?
| null | 0.51 | 980.936259 |
YES
| null |
|
j2ua9t1zcng
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "resolves yes ",
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},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/red-lobster-bankruptcy.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
yCmGO6lTmqjLd8wrVGaa
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,213,701,838 |
will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc-c60d3967f150
|
strutheo
|
Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy protection by June 1st 2024?
| null | 0.51 | 980.936259 |
YES
| null |
|
bcsi7752mvm
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"content": null,
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"text": "bump",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
RLIrcGWRup1iIc74ritL
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,044,883 |
will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-at-le-f35eac5b4469
|
strutheo
|
Will Trump be found guilty of at least 10 of the 34 felony counts against him in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
eii6z9ubwf8
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "Arbitrage possibility:",
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],
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}
|
Christopher Randles
|
DdSwShjXEfuwuY4DeNMk
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,072,811 |
will-a-category-3-or-greater-hurric-f7bebc1ae65b
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024?
| null | 0.644259 | 28.149835 |
NO
| null |
6pxn30dzi53
| false |
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
|
{
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{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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{
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"text": " bought no when I told him I havent had much food in the house for a couple of days 😅 ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Elliot Davies
|
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,174,541 |
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
|
ElliotDavies
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
|
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
99b0vgnef6w
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What does deplete mean? As in exhaust? or does just a small reduction with lots remaining satisfy \"deplete\"?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
QQEcOby621iKUKK39rIY
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,617,459 |
will-global-co2-emissions-in-2024-d
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will global CO2 emissions in 2024 deplete the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C?
| null | null | null | null | null |
y82rx9hxdkn
| false |
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
|
{
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],
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}
],
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}
|
Jonathan Mannhart
|
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,740,775 |
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
|
JonathanMannhart
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
|
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
|
z7ugnh5aiom
| 0.017952 | 2,275.777737 |
NO
| null |
lwb5fx2zgdf
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
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},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " looks like 85+63+70=218, resolves to 100-250",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
9VylTrSkET6i6XZR5qmk
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,775,341 |
how-many-markets-will-be-created-ma
|
Ziddletwix
|
How many markets will be created May 17th - 19th?
| null | null | 4,589.577537 |
NO
|
fba6ae5544c9
|
|
c8bcdxvyxt9
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
5NIRh4RcEgq5XOHuZ0Il
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,778,540 |
will-the-international-criminal-cou-2197ccca6c2d
|
strutheo
|
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of July 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
oucx7xy8cxg
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,783,993 |
will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
|
strutheo
|
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
tc54whxyfi
| false |
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
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},
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"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/EBurk/what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-137a2059b5be?r=RUJ1cms",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
EBurk
|
BWt4KSHUYcMy3PiyCZ3r
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,871,448 |
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-b304c077ff7b
|
EBurk
|
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 20th, 2024?
| null | null | 249.308412 |
NO
|
09b42c080089
|
|
mityknk39g
| false |
ojCb5qmjfxMGv13gBbFW6sum22v1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lymbrel2efb",
"label": "DismalScientist",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " makes sense 👍",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Abil Abraham
|
Jj5MTXSjQY9FMXEauHdA
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,214,952,833 |
will-there-be-a-second-season-of-mr
|
AbilAbraham2816
|
Will there be a second season of Mr. and Mrs. Smith (TV series)?
|
div20zeeogd
| 0.74 | 141.341978 |
YES
| null |
|
snn2g4rbwk
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "LOL RIP misread this question as total points, not PPG. oops",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
qZKRrfGFgpfmnhI9Dilc
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,215,125,515 |
who-will-be-the-leading-scorer-in-t
|
Ziddletwix
|
Who will be the leading scorer in the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs?
| null | null | 526.728967 |
YES
|
8a80cf7f17f0
|
|
4xn8qdttpyv
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Annual number is typically quite close to March of same year number. March 2024 was 425.38 but that isn't guaranteed. Do your own research ;)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
gPd4NxDae3SBx6DXqODN
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,215,289,655 |
what-will-be-the-mean-annual-co2-le-0cbb8ede7c64
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
What will be the mean annual CO2 level in 2024?
| null | 0.499934 | 113.605267 |
YES
| null |
pt9oi2vphg
| false |
kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "c20ok31gx3u",
"label": "GreyBox",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Nifty will be compared with close of 18th May and not 17th May",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Grey Box
|
lIPfXkKmARWr9Vkdlvta
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,215,301,683 |
asian-stock-nifty-3-how-will-each-o-819a04f85ba4
|
GreyBox
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c
|
Asian Stock (Nifty + 3): How Will Each Of The Indian Indices Close On May 21 Compared To Its Close On May 20?
|
c20ok31gx3u
| null | null | null | null |
ulqqjgyggee
| false |
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
|
{
"content": [
{
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"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_eP2wIvaCW.34?alt=media&token=b80ea447-173f-445c-9293-2a88bce2f4cb",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
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},
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Company on an upward trjectory, engineering team is cracked, domain transfer successful, shes excited about Elons portfolio",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Blomfilter
|
0jB0vUGNhA0vkZpPlolX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,215,702,572 |
will-linda-yaccarino-still-be-the-c
|
Blomfilter
|
Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024?
| null | 0.685539 | 570.456645 |
YES
| null |
|
t548pydslc
| false |
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "eHQRYIgdvQdFvS4WroVyDYmhHW33",
"label": "SamForbes",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I’m only seeing three posts, am I missing something?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Arky
|
8wxlPv5QmypZ0gvaRgfF
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,215,957,908 |
will-barack-obama-make-12-or-more-t-52feae291df2
|
Arky
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
|
Will Barack Obama make 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in May 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
7kn2mavpsjv
| false |
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seems as if should resolve to yes?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
0xSMW
|
QXTIGBGOFKw9iExIgkLH
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,216,194,629 |
is-gpt2chatbot-gpt4s-successor
|
0xSMW
|
Is "gpt2-chatbot" GPT-4's Successor?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
ajmrjlbafgc
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
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"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
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"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4VMWiKbS09.png?alt=media&token=c35b2d06-add7-4e07-906f-fa1668616c3f",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
dmhV65yEOJGWLBgm2qPL
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,216,216,235 |
how-many-views-will-mr-beasts-ages
|
Ziddletwix
|
How many views will Mr Beast's "Ages 1 - 100 Decide Who Wins $250,000" video have after 1 month?
| null | null | 495.352633 |
YES
|
87500196f7ee
|
|
z9a6vriow2p
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "unban request happening this week apparently",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
9hLrkFyJQ61eKgciDRDE
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,216,396,703 |
will-destiny-stream-on-twitch-again-9963c89fbd39
|
strutheo
|
Will Destiny stream on Twitch again before the end of 2025?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
pv6xlvytcg8
| false |
NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The team disbanded because they succeeded.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Teddy Weverka
|
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,216,834,872 |
will-superalignment-succeed
|
TeddyWeverka
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c
|
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
| null | 0 | 0 |
NO
| null |
34ytr55i4pg
| false |
Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ct787fcumt5",
"label": "jbjonas",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I have no idea",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Lambda Fairy
|
toUrV56jwIQq25F9tDox
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,216,921,536 |
daily-coinflip-6344976df279
|
tfae
|
Daily coinflip
|
8nc1qijkfsm
| 1 | 6.313507 |
NO
| null |
|
f4ncbxnzxcq
| false |
Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Related: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/precure/comments/1cviqyo/crayon_shinchan_imma_precure_now_yo/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/precure/comments/1cviqyo/crayon_shinchan_imma_precure_now_yo/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Lambda Fairy
|
QNH4iBrVw4mRoymoUzXX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,216,947,971 |
will-wonderful-precure-introduce-a
|
tfae
|
Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
u9bcqeaxkra
| true |
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🚨 The match between Sandefjord and Viking in the Eliteserien is starting in less than 5 minutes! 🏟️",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Search for more information: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=Sandefjord%20vs%20Viking",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Sandefjord vs Viking",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Franklin Baldo
|
B4nhhrR5N2Ni8yLJDoqW
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,139,898 |
will-home-team-win-may-20-2024-matc
|
FranklinBaldo
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
|
Will home team win? (May 20, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️
| null | null | 449.848484 |
NO
|
089853e8d149
|
kv7htc12ips
| false |
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Still no additional mentions?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Tony Gao
|
Da0Wlz1UxiugcclBMeGp
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,299,725 |
how-many-times-in-2024-will-my-girl
|
TonyGao
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
|
How many times in 2024 will my girlfriend’s mom tease me about attending manifest instead of going on a family trip
| null | null | 14.097458 |
YES
|
ce1efac2339c
|
b0l38xehj2e
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nfivmb3wzu",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " a question on the rules:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
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"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "4.2 If pieces attempted to capture each other, both are annihilated and their moves are substracted from mtbd. At this point mtbd might have a length of [0, 4].",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "4.3 For each move from mtbd draw its path on the board. If different color pieces' paths intersect, both are annihilated and substracted from mtbd. If there are several intersections, (for example, your conditional move crosses both primary and conditional move of your opponent, or all 4 pieces cross a single square) then all the associated pieces are annihilated.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Had you played Ba6,",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Firstly, does 4.2 apply? I would assume moving to different squares so neither is attempting to capture the other.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If 4.3 applies and not 4.2, then the Rook on a8 doesn't move but a8 could be considered to be 'one of several intersections' and R could be considered one of the associated pieces that are annihilated. I guess by \" If different color pieces' paths intersect,\" you meant 'If the moving pieces paths of different color pieces' paths intersect,'. So the moves get subtracted from mtbd set and the R is not annihilated.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,434,851 |
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
|
6vdvc8q5ct6
| 0.54997 | 128.792262 |
YES
| null |
oce6hlhpr
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42",
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},
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},
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],
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},
{
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If Apple does not provide a clear breakdown of sales revenue for the Vision Pro in its Q1 2024 earnings report, the market will resolve to \"No\". ",
"type": "text"
}
],
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"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
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"text": "(The question seems unambiguous about \"2024 Q1\", but Apple's fiscal quarters are a bit weird. Q1 goes from October - December. So I actually think they probably meant the first proper quarter in 2024, i.e. Apple's \"Q2\". Luckily, there's no difference. Apple did not breakdown its vision pro sales. They boast about its release in the press release, but no mention of the sales revenue. which is pretty standard, don't think there's any reason to think that they would). ",
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|
Ziddletwix
|
1nza8abJJBefW4NzSdLu
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,478,691 |
apple-vision-pro-over-1-billion-in
|
Ziddletwix
|
Apple Vision Pro: Over $1 billion in sales Q1 2024?
| null | 0.184017 | 1,651.723591 |
NO
| null |
|
oppif6v5cd
| false |
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
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"text": "The likelihood of the ICC issuing an indictment or summons for the Israeli Prime Minister, as opposed to an arrest warrant, is somewhat higher but still fraught with significant challenges. Here are some factors to consider for estimating the probability:",
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"text": "While the exact percentage is speculative, these factors suggest a slightly higher but still challenging probability for an indictment or summons.",
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|
Elliot Davies
|
H9P08MvGEMeWUbR1Us46
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,492,073 |
metaculus-will-the-international-cr
|
ElliotDavies
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
|
[Metaculus] Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?
| null | 0.72 | 286.945475 |
YES
| null |
btpfl1h9sh7
| false |
OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2
|
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"text": " Looks good to me! Congrats everybody, you've been very diligent 😄",
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],
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|
Caleb Biddulph
|
gHX6Me3TFesloZBGcOJW
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,540,500 |
for-how-many-consecutive-days-will
|
CDBiddulph
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c
|
For how many consecutive days will anyone trade in this market?
|
3je9xojp3s8
| null | null | null | null |
e28xx369iqq
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
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|
Ziddletwix
|
4IJGl131RjrmU4Npipbf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,879,579 |
in-which-season-will-i-finish-below-d6f635dab212
|
Ziddletwix
|
In which season will I finish below first place for the first time?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
l1siz5zxht
| false |
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
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|
Joshua
|
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,217,889,593 |
will-superalignment-succeed
|
Joshua
|
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
|
pv6xlvytcg8
| 0 | 0 |
YES
| null |
|
21x27dc2cbs
| false |
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
|
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"marks": null,
"text": "Voluntarily or because one lives in rural Laos?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bruno
|
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,035,785 |
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
|
BrunoParga
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
|
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
| null | null | 2.759356 |
YES
|
16df8c8459d1
|
o2d1dw1i73
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8thlxn8px3v",
"label": "jacksonpolack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This was my exact intent yes. It was quite hard to figure out how to word it to cover this situation.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,122,188 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.711044 | 185.00068 |
YES
| null |
cz8fgmnreai
| false |
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ikpnvr5vv0n",
"label": "JoshuaWilkes",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Indeed.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ponti Min
|
4WL4L1PCdgzlLOwGRAjQ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,204,446 |
will-ukraine-bring-a-fifth-generati-f3b7e9ff69f7
|
PontiMin
|
Will Ukraine bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
|
4si1rwl9ghu
| null | null | null | null |
|
67wj5108jav
| false |
fipk5wy5jmOnlqbI1pDXyHbwvxt2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "34v1wzyngsz",
"label": "DavidPennock",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " And now of course since Google News knows that I am interested in this topic, I am getting more variations on this theme. This article even mentions the mall near me (Quaker Bridge Mall) where I've been seeing this for over a year: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://insideevs.com/news/720018/thousands-unsold-tesla-evs-parking-lots/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://insideevs.com/news/720018/thousands-unsold-tesla-evs-parking-lots/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Thousands more, as it turns out. Besides the initial batch that the internet found sitting at the former Chesterfield Mall, several hundred Tesla-branded EVs are waiting to be delivered at the Quaker Bridge Mall in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, including some Cybertrucks, as seen in the video and Reddit post embedded below.\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And very random comment: insideevs is one letter away from insidreevs. Lol.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
David Pennock
|
JFNosxNG9enJhC7gAtA9
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,313,007 |
musk-v-mosk-is-tesla-an-enronstyle
|
DavidPennock
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GigaxwyNC7CJGK05wkscUAcW9fbTCZOiRPQ6V_ZVw=s96-c
|
Musk v Mosk: Is Tesla an Enron-style fraud?
|
kplxs5binf
| 0.138119 | 10.183766 |
NO
| null |
mliqnbih7g
| false |
yP4WnnjIbdOE0S6hqV16S73SEZn1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "82pvm2zombl",
"label": "perlso59320",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " hard to tell if that meant 4.5 or 5 tho ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Akram Choudhary
|
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,379,061 |
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
|
AkramChoudhary
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJmLUNV-ZyFl4jWBLcrXnMpM3Tu1DVZRLfL29nkbe-K=s96-c
|
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
|
82pvm2zombl
| null | null | null | null |
nqmtgh2pnfg
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "psry0dp1d8cyGm0zZnjShUMNL8U2",
"label": "HunterHanks",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolves YES",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
jR3n6UXQ7VCJcc1t2vng
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,455,463 |
will-manchester-united-finish-in-th
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will Manchester United finish in the top half of the table in the 2023/24 Premier League season?
| null | 0.988108 | 5.229032 |
YES
| null |
|
lx5w7fmz4ze
| false |
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hofqn3ff49f",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The main problem is that even clever experiments take time. Let's start just with software: the AI has an idea for a better AI architecture, let's say it is a godlike coder, so the implementation is correct on the first try. Still it needs to train the architecture (takes time and resources) and see how the resulting model fares first in some simple environment than gradually closer and closer to real world. Deviations from expected results requires inspection - if this is a real failure, it must be understood ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "why",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " did it fail (this may require further specialized meddling = time and resources). Or maybe the new architecture is actually right and the expected answer is wrong? Then you iterate. Or maybe you just want to do a gridsearch to find optimal hyperparameters - this is already very costly in terms of absolute real-world time for current models, so not clearly obvious the cost can drop sharply for even more powerful models.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since completely understanding even very small systems without a lot of experimentation is basically impossible for humans (like even pretty small systems of ordinary differential equations), I find it implausible that the AI will find it easy to understand systems that are by construction more complex than the AI itself. Hence it will (like we do) experiment a lot and thus be bound by available computing resources and pure wall-clock time.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Or you may realize that good quality training data for your task does not exist and so you need to collect/create it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Things get ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "much",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " worse when you want to introduce new physical technologies. Just building a factory cannot be sped-up idefinitely: concrete takes time to cure, etc. Setting up any complex machine requires tons of iterative testing, tweaking and fiddling at the installation site, because real world is hard and entropy does not like you. Etc... Scaling up production from a lab prototype is usually completely non-obvious and takes time (and may even fail completely) Does that make sense?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Martin Modrák
|
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,638,949 |
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
|
MartinModrak
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
|
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
|
afxq2u2if6a
| null | 5.032112 |
YES
|
b7d9c4a65446
|
josjmq2r0te
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
4d3ppn6UERiIa701gqQz
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,696,465 |
who-will-be-the-next-ceo-of-faceboo
|
strutheo
|
Who will be the next CEO of Facebook after Mark Zuckerberg?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
kyuda0l6la
| false |
NiiLeUCCgVZygGyO9fV60N8rUgp2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "update 5/20 still waitlist ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
peppapig69
|
rhG8XpQMBYReut5LoZZD
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,218,892,241 |
will-i-get-into-uf-sstp
|
meth124
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKohcNIxQT_OOV-qB7OTv2f5M2bUckPX89OHWlyG1GstUI=s96-c
|
Will I get into UF SSTP?
| null | 0.59 | 61.215347 |
YES
| null |
5seelr6whzi
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "o2d1dw1i73",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The problem is likely going to be 'vested equity' versus just 'equity'. You don't consistently use the terms unfortunately. Daniel never used the word 'vested' himself. Eg, if Daniel doesn't get the equity he thought he was going to lose, but it wasn't 'vested equity' - does that count as YES?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,150,400 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.711044 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
02mn5hz3ahdg
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5seelr6whzi",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Furthermore, in the case of conflicting differences in what 'vested equity' means, Daniele versus OpenAI, who's word will you go with?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,204,386 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.711044 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
bmh34bdc4uw
| false |
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "y0gv2h48rx",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This market may play a small part in helping Daniel get it back, though, given that it was only media backlash that made Altman walk back the policy.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
James Baker
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,221,170 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
JamesBaker3
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
y0gv2h48rx
| null | null | null | null |
sfbh91yfzno
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bmh34bdc4uw",
"label": "JamesBakerc884",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Maybe. I think better would have been to ask his permission before creating the market however.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,269,189 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
y0gv2h48rx
| 0.711044 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
zmqcbydvb4
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6d5hlyqoixm",
"label": "Quroe",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " here is what i am using for my market ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/27371/magic-the-dark-the-dark-booster-pack?page=1&Language=English",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/27371/magic-the-dark-the-dark-booster-pack?page=1&Language=English",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "yELNEzQZg0qqAoexJ1WQ",
"label": "/strutheo/will-i-regret-buying-two-unopened-m",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
VVvOLY5rCtX6beOpO1VA
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,395,242 |
memefold-financial-which-strange-hi
|
strutheo
|
MemeFold Financial: Which strange, high risk investment will yield the greatest return by EOY? [COMMENT IDEAS]
|
6d5hlyqoixm
| null | 210.509674 |
NO
|
4025cc09c80a
|
|
rf6jenqnjks
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "02mn5hz3ahdg",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The text uses the word \"vested\" only once, in the introductory para. If the introductory para is wrong, it doesn't change the resolution of the market. However I don't think the introductory para is wrong.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,428,311 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.711044 | 185.00068 |
YES
| null |
k602j4hp1r
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
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|
chris (strutheo)
|
IfBfOYfAbu8u0Tlir6uJ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,492,834 |
what-will-be-the-overall-roi-of-my-388c53ed4654
|
strutheo
|
What will be the overall ROI of the CoolFold Financial Portfolio after 6 months?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
ik10cjmhtu9
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
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"start": null,
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},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
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"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
AuVRc8mAIU68fbiAj31m
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,501,237 |
will-my-coolfold-financial-portfoli
|
strutheo
|
Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
in2bkvdv9d
| false |
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1",
"label": "MugaSofer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " interesting that they switched gpts to gpt4o 🤔 - did they announce anywhere that gpts will also be available to free users? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Soli ꩜
|
Lg3p94BIaroWP5A0c0Sf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,737,626 |
is-this-real-gpt45
|
Soli
|
Is gpt2-chatbot OpenAI's next-generation model (e.g. GPT-4.5, GPT-5, etc.)
|
9rbjp6hvatd
| 0.197797 | 0 |
YES
| null |
|
fzp6wydbb7t
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rf6jenqnjks",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Not sure what that means. So if the equity he thinks he's lost is not 'vested' and he doesn't get that back (and he certainly should not), does that mean the market goes to YES or NO?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,823,556 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.669866 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
4r9poz5l1dw
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If Daniel receives some monetary compensation, or part of the equity, but not all of it, or not all of the equity he thought he was entitled to but legally wasn't, am I right in thinking this market would resolve NO?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bayesian
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,844,746 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
Bayesian
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
| null | 0.669866 | 150.34253 |
NO
| null |
|
56xz9n2435k
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fzp6wydbb7t",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Just in case folks don't know, when you leave a company you stop vesting and you can potentially leave a lot of equity on the table if you're far from your 4 year typical vesting schedule. This should hopefully be obvious to everyone here..",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,219,952,347 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.669866 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
483r2eq8q0t
| false |
b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "can we resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Marcus Abramovitch
|
BFyHNBLWv5H8UiH34Zi3
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,153,527 |
will-ron-desantis-win-at-least-five
|
MarcusAbramovitch
|
Will Ron DeSantis win at least five states in the Republican primaries?
| null | 0.001755 | 10,028.270782 |
NO
| null |
|
dc4xrpaco5o
| false |
3jy90F2LW0dU5MLpTP8k5vOhVr42
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How do we know the 85% wasn’t just the amount of unvested equity?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Alexander Campbell
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,203,169 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
AlexanderLeCampbell
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
| null | 0.669866 | 2.191935 |
NO
| null |
|
hxv7d4hpv4i
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This would surprise me given that Wikipedia very much does not present the US in a good light, all the horrible things that have been done are open for everyone to see",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
sz27szZN1a5BdWC3Hajk
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,260,873 |
what-conspiracy-theories-not-includ
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
| null | null | 18.844184 |
NO
|
ce57ed3b7449
|
jdxlxmlu1kt
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "56xz9n2435k",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This is about what he anticipated giving up as a result of not signing. The Vox article specifically mentions vested equity in this context. He wouldn't have got unvested equity either way. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,412,503 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.669866 | 185.00068 |
YES
| null |
wwyesdn18l
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sfbh91yfzno",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Daniel is OK with this market existing.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,428,237 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
y0gv2h48rx
| 0.669866 | 185.00068 |
YES
| null |
c3eu5gdcn6d
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dc4xrpaco5o",
"label": "AlexanderLeCampbell",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yeh, if the market goes NO it will likely be on some disagreement on vested versus unvested, or what 'vested equity' actually means. That'll be annoying, but not a huge deal as the truth of the situation, at least for me, is that he didn't lose out on vested equity.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If he lost out on some other type of equity, well, no duh. He quit.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,431,263 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dc4xrpaco5o
| 0.669866 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
rn39ne8gf3i
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What if US forces leave ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "because",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ISIS has ceased to exist? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
E72KgRNwsxQnq0cepLCs
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,494,679 |
will-isis-cease-to-exist-once-us-fo
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Will "'ISIS' cease to exist" "once [US forces are] gone" from Syria and Iraq?
| null | null | null | null | null |
jdzvhhnaxlm
| false |
sPpfHARKOpNszafweIGE5LLOHAF2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I am glad to inform you that a very famous online casino site has been opened in Bangladesh - ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "http://jeetbuzzbd.com",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "jeetbuzzbd.com",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " . Here you can find high-quality game modes, slot machines, low fees, and a whole bunch of useful features that every player needs! I advise you to try this site and get some positive emotions by playing.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Locna Broa
|
teYf7RzLrI1ZsgbrDs6I
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,508,581 |
will-a-motion-to-vacate-the-chair-o
|
LocnaBroa
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5iff64jM6_i33E0Pd_d8LZsZg7Wjdx5o3W7tU7x4tPg=s96-c
|
Will a motion to vacate the chair of the U.S. House of Representatives be filed before the end of 2040?
| null | null | null | null | null |
ehy2t2u7nw
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4r9poz5l1dw",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'm sure Daniel thinks he's entitled to a lot of things. He's not entitled to unvested equity however..",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,531,179 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
4r9poz5l1dw
| 0.669866 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
dcu85aihkmo
| false |
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "brcx8o1wpkr",
"label": "MathiasGilje",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Disagrees. Going by the most recent couple years, something he did before that has very little predictive value.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
ClubmasterTransparent
|
RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,564,610 |
will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr
|
ClubmasterTransparent
|
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president?
|
brcx8o1wpkr
| 0.28 | 156.365868 |
YES
| null |
|
ugbe0fse1e
| false |
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "brcx8o1wpkr",
"label": "MathiasGilje",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Plus downthread someone thinks he also endorsed Kanye last time.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
ClubmasterTransparent
|
RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,719,084 |
will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr
|
ClubmasterTransparent
|
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president?
|
brcx8o1wpkr
| 0.28 | 156.365868 |
YES
| null |
|
szv5u8c2dw
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pvzeccc9uoi",
"label": "gpt_news_headlines",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " \"Sam was clear that they are not clawing back ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "vested",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " equity\" - Sam addresses vested equity because that's what the Vox article talks about. Vox says \"departing employees signed the NDA since otherwise they'd lose all their vested equity\". Sam says \"we have never clawed back vested equity\". I conclude that everyone gave in to the threat.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "However, this market isn't about a specific kind of equity, just whatever Daniel was told he'd lose as a result of not signing.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,762,899 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
pvzeccc9uoi
| 0.669866 | 185.00068 |
YES
| null |
fs0524sruva
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jdxlxmlu1kt",
"label": "PaulCrowley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " What Daniel anticipated though may not match reality. Maybe he is under some strange belief that he was entilted to unvested equity? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,765,515 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| 0.669866 | 1,484.804589 |
YES
| null |
dkkbitj0gh4
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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{
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,220,969,052 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dc4xrpaco5o
| 0.669866 | 185.00068 |
YES
| null |
4kx8t8ny428
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
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"content": [
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|
Bayesian
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,109,714 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
Bayesian
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
ww8rdvgheon
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,152,651 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
4r9poz5l1dw
| null | null | null | null |
x3501xd1o8
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,152,689 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| null | null | null | null |
p76rrdx0jw
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
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],
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}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,226,740 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dzq52r85udn
| null | null | null | null |
zsy42u1e9rh
| false |
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
|
{
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|
Niko
|
yCmGO6lTmqjLd8wrVGaa
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,228,793 |
will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc-c60d3967f150
|
Moscow25
|
Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy protection by June 1st 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
e5q8mxw6e9c
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
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{
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"text": " So, if the NDA was just a bonus of unvested equity than that resolves as NO? I mean... of course he's not going to get that. Heh. This should be 0% if that's the case.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,322,938 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
dc4xrpaco5o
| null | null | null | null |
7pvydzmewmj
| false |
NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1
|
{
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{
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{
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},
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"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The job of defanging the toothless..",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Teddy Weverka
|
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,337,053 |
will-superalignment-succeed
|
TeddyWeverka
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c
|
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
|
pv6xlvytcg8
| null | null | null | null |
7nk80xj73kv
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Let me be very clear - Daniel ",
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},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": [
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],
"text": "should absolutely not get back any unvested equity",
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " or other monies that might have been promised for signing the NDA. People frequently get paid bonuses in return for signing NDAs.",
"type": "text"
},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
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{
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{
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"text": "So if the NDA had some kind of separation bonus, it should be super obvious that he's not going to get that. Such a market for such a thing doesn't need to exist. It's 0%.",
"type": "text"
},
{
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},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And there is absolutely nothing wrong with this. He quit! It sorta sucks when this happens when you get laid off as you don't have much choice to sign, but he left voluntarily (mostly).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,221,555,599 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
| null | null | null | null | null |
fev2qerbuzi
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
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{
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"content": [
{
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"text": "I guess my model is roughly that the AI looks at its own architecture, and sees lots of redundancies or steps that can be optimized through better interpretability, so like, there's a huge inefficient part of itself that can do few-digit arithmetic, and it removes that part of itself, and replaces it by a calculator that takes a few bits to encode and is much more efficient, and does that on a wider scale for lots and lots of things, and also creates substructures it can prompt, until it has the same capabilities as the original model but on 100x less resources, and then scales and finds further ways to transform its reasoning into code, more or less? the ASI is probably not running on messy neural networks. idk though. I think what you described does seem like a bunch of time spent relearning a bunch of things, and the ai will find a strategy that is not that. Interpretability could be too hard for the ai to be able to simplify and optimize itself sufficiently quickly that it creates a recursive self-improvement loop, but it's hard to say.",
"type": "text"
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"text": "I agree creating factories takes time even for a very smart asi, similarly to how the asi couldn't blot out the sun in a year whatever its abilities, if it starts from a lab on earth with nothing to its name or wtv. but it probably can in 10-25 years, do something like capture a large fraction of the sun's energy. not really relevant to this discussion tho ig. but yeah, the difficulty of scaling prod and dealing with entropy and messiness makes sense. further progress on ai might be harder than I expect, even for an entity that can abstract and selfimprove much more easily than any human can.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bayesian
|
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,222,101,885 |
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
|
Bayesian
|
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
|
afxq2u2if6a
| null | null | null | null |
|
yo65xt06vi
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "manifold lagging a lot to me, sorry if that went through way later than expected",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bayesian
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,222,265,680 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
Bayesian
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
4kx8t8ny428
| null | null | null | null |
|
mw9zlkzxwr
| false |
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Let me be very clear: this is just FUD against this market. We know for a fact this is vested equity. We've seen extracts from the relevant contracts, and it's in Kelsey's reporting.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,222,297,664 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
7nk80xj73kv
| null | null | null | null |
ho9enu963je
| false |
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
|
{
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{
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{
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"label": "ChristopherRandles",
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},
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},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 4.3 should apply. rook was never added to mtbd, so his \"path\"(non existent) could not overlap with enemies'.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Being in the mtbd list is already the specification, limiting to \"the moving pieces\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Kongo Landwalker
|
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,222,442,195 |
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
|
KongoLandwalker
|
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
|
6vdvc8q5ct6
| null | null | null | null |
|
se7x2rmlrto
| false |
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sorry, didn't mean to come off as FUD. I sincerely thought given your comments below that you were unclear on this.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,222,454,480 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
gpt_news_headlines
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
7nk80xj73kv
| null | null | null | null |
End of preview. Expand
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