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njum177fp4s
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GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
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|
Paul Crowley
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,123,479 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
PaulCrowley
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
ic7n3t6b7b
| 0.71 | 185.00068 |
YES
| null |
gzbzpwzef0n
| false |
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
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|
Austin
|
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,188,774 |
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
|
Austin
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
|
7338t2ev3y
| null | null | null | null |
s9bnhovnnm
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
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"text": "suggests there may be both a high risk area and a debris area. (Maybe that is re launch of SG+starship and then booster coming down.)",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
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}
|
Christopher Randles
|
v2YvLhpRPyrQ7hfbeB0R
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,265,005 |
will-spacexs-4th-starship-test-flig
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
|
yqopv26pmgj
| null | null | null | null |
c258i7nvzw
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
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"text": " this can resolve NO. It's past may 15th and all 8 ivies still use preferential treatment for legacies. ",
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|
Ziddletwix
|
nEGTLIgPScsN8TQtvjIk
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,434,332 |
two-ivy-league-schools-will-stop-ac
|
Ziddletwix
|
Two Ivy League schools will stop giving preferential treatment to legacies by
5/15/24
| null | 0.028655 | 3,995.507659 |
NO
| null |
|
gzewkm56ahn
| false |
baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2
|
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"text": "A minimum 20 point deduction is highly likely in my opinion, IF City are found guilty. The framework being applied in recent months already punished Everton and Forest for a small number of charges and could easily be applied to derive a huge point deduction for City. An added bonus for the Premier League is City actually being good enough to survive a 50-60 point deduction.",
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"text": "The other punishments are less likely because they break the precedents and have bigger brand and diplomatic impact. Conditional on City being found guilty, I believe there's 70-80% chance this will resolve to yes mostly because of the point deduction. But I am uncertain whether City will be convicted given the complexity of the case, many of the charges being over compliance/procedure. ",
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],
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}
],
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}
|
PlainBoomerang
|
8y8G08Kd0htIYK0zxKkA
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,496,328 |
will-manchester-city-be-severely-pu
|
PlainBG
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlainBG%2FYbYTECPDi9.13?alt=media&token=e5868d91-74ae-4d99-9370-3ca5e400adab
|
Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?
| null | 0.310823 | 202.341243 |
YES
| null |
p6l2yc9ebij
| false |
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
|
{
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"text": "20% of losing Odessa... 😮 ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Kongo Landwalker
|
K5CPmDn4Dlh2Y26YYNex
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,576,340 |
after-the-war-in-ukraine-ends-which
|
KongoLandwalker
|
After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
k5bdm50awd
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
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}
|
Christopher Randles
|
v2YvLhpRPyrQ7hfbeB0R
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,832,200 |
will-spacexs-4th-starship-test-flig
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
|
yqopv26pmgj
| null | null | null | null |
zqebaq7t9qr
| false |
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
|
{
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"text": "Dynamic feels too risky. Medium speed needs a lot of balance. Slow approach I have never seen being performed.",
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"text": "I have exams in May-June (during which I do not want to spend time), and I will have 2 months after that.",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Kongo Landwalker
|
wygHjjekRrQmuGnlEHZ2
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,234,928,905 |
will-kongolandwalker-learn-to-do-on
|
KongoLandwalker
|
Will @KongoLandwalker learn to do one arm muscle up by 30th of August 2024?
| null | 0.06756 | 242.19549 |
YES
| null |
|
vy16tlw7vo
| false |
67XuYLJp3xRgLipaJM6cV2w7cT23
|
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|
Roma
|
EgaFULvlcgD4Vo6BmVXW
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,235,103,764 |
will-bitcoin-hit-70k-in-may-2024
|
roma
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Froma%2Fp2l-sC2bKA.32?alt=media&token=cb1b9e21-efb8-48d4-8bf5-48ef40ef3f68
|
Will Bitcoin hit $70K in May 2024?
| null | 0.59 | 1,608.370924 |
YES
| null |
61zqqinypaj
| false |
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
|
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"text": " I would have expected the poll to have the same bins as this market before I read the comments.",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
M L
|
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,235,262,023 |
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
|
ML12d1
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
|
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
|
2hwvf9w37d9
| null | null | null | null |
p7ei1pqc9kb
| false |
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
|
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|
Andrew
|
Cj0CPk63Wfwst1y1noo2
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,235,414,932 |
will-the-international-criminal-cou-777d9a6875ce
|
AndrewCrosse
|
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of May 2024?
| null | 0.15 | 314.613812 |
YES
| null |
|
k3kghxxg88r
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
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"text": "\"Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating.\"",
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"text": "Perhaps there should be an option for this?",
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,235,646,378 |
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
| null | null | null | null | null |
gujalvg6a5i
| false |
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
|
{
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{
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"marks": null,
"text": " nevermind just realized its not official yet",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Andrew
|
Cj0CPk63Wfwst1y1noo2
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,235,680,194 |
will-the-international-criminal-cou-777d9a6875ce
|
AndrewCrosse
|
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of May 2024?
|
p7ei1pqc9kb
| 0.15 | 314.613812 |
YES
| null |
|
uoymw9kb91
| false |
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
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},
{
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"text": " That demonstrates the unreliability of the model I use. Curious how many other bets it will lose 🤣 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
uair01
|
EgaFULvlcgD4Vo6BmVXW
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,235,860,340 |
will-bitcoin-hit-70k-in-may-2024
|
uair01
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
|
Will Bitcoin hit $70K in May 2024?
|
vy16tlw7vo
| 0.99 | 140.738329 |
NO
| null |
xkyd8mb1v6
| false |
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
|
{
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"text": " I think this is what was meant: I could create a market \"What price will Apple stock close at on 5/30?\". People place their predictions; I buy/sell the stock and then close the market as N/A and get Mana back",
"type": "text"
}
],
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|
Enlil
|
TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,235,908,144 |
who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th
|
Enlil
|
Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
|
sgurdextpws
| null | 238.233209 |
YES
|
f0425d0d315f
|
|
hcpigjv6pr
| false |
INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92
|
{
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"text": " it will",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Casey The Grip Lord
|
L70Biia1KU3Sdi2tqffY
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,236,220,645 |
what-will-manifold-think-the-best-b
|
CaseyTheGripLord
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c
|
What will Manifold think the best bedtime is?
|
2hwvf9w37d9
| null | 311.523614 |
NO
|
63f8d8325f99
|
io6bw1kgbih
| false |
FZ3u6wWnmrVRWi46jf1BeQJWXJE2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market can be resolved now.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Erwin Rossen
|
9zrdYoMZIlaUhweBrMjh
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,236,401,373 |
which-team-will-win-la-liga-primera
|
ErwinRossen
|
Which team will win La Liga (Primera División) 2023-2024?
| null | null | 2,892.64904 |
YES
|
799219f572eb
|
|
z95vn1afu68
| false |
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "What is the difference between Miss America and Miss USA?",
"type": "text"
}
],
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"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"marks": null,
"text": "The two pageants may seem identical at first, but besides sharing a similar name, the two organizations have far less in common than most individuals believe.",
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}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
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"content": [
{
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"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
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"href": "https://www.the-sun.com/news/4291582/miss-america-2022-winner-emma-broyles/",
"target": "_top"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Miss America",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " operates largely as a nonprofit organization and calls itself a ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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{
"attrs": {
"class": "analytics-hyperlink",
"href": "https://www.the-sun.com/lifestyle/real-life/6711647/pageant-queen-mom-daughter-family-competition/",
"target": "_top"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "scholarship competition",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " rather than a traditional beauty pageant.",
"type": "text"
}
],
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},
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Miss USA",
"type": "text"
},
{
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"marks": null,
"text": ", on the other hand, has been owned by various corporations and businessmen, from Catalina Swimwear, Gulf & Western, and ITT Inc.",
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}
],
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},
{
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"content": [
{
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"text": "Former President ",
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},
{
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{
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},
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}
],
"text": "Donald Trump",
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},
{
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"text": "purchased the rights to the pageant in 1996 and operated it until it was acquired by ",
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
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},
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}
],
"text": "Hollywood",
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},
{
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"text": " talent agency WME/IMG in 2015.",
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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"text": "I was confused about this! Miss USA is Trump’s old pageant. Glad to know what’s what. 😅",
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}
],
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Archibald Crone
|
5Y0KlflR09OAV9LwGw4C
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,236,508,754 |
will-miss-usa-be-released-from-her
|
BlueDragon
|
👑🥀⛓️💥Will Miss USA be released from her NDA?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
9de78eio3ii
| false |
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This doesn't really work if inauguration day is changed/postponed/cancelled/hanged.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "I suggest you say specifically January 19, 2029.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bruno
|
6ymdDdrFQ7GGgEE715OR
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,237,015,192 |
on-the-day-before-the-2029-inaugura
|
BrunoParga
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
|
On the day before the 2029 inauguration, who will be the President of the United States?
| null | null | null | null | null |
y12pmdxdlon
| false |
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think the main risk is that OpenAI doesn't end up being the major supplier of Chat LLM services to the public. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Campbell Hutcheson
|
5xvZ2ZVhzaVIEWIUkYsr
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,237,349,112 |
5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se
|
CampbellHutcheson
|
5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"
| null | 0.764353 | 64.713728 |
YES
| null |
|
5b0orz8e5s8
| false |
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wej4p12fstk",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " sorry, I missed your first ping. I'll have to look into why it didn't get auto-resolved. Maybe Kalshi changed their schema or something.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
jskf
|
qhBMnib4Qoaw4cEgrBOx
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,237,549,041 |
kalshi-taylor-swift-holds-top-10-sp
|
jskf
|
[Kalshi] Taylor Swift holds top 10 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 with new album release?
|
veokt0fn63l
| null | null | null | null |
|
zocgswaeqz
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"making a clear approach run on the catch site\"",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory\"",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
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"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seems to me that the trajectory for most of the time after re-entry is completed will be aiming to hit ocean just off launch site. Only when it gets lower and can see that it has suitable control authority will it transition towards aiming at the tower. Should we discern that \"the correct trajectory\" includes a trajectory that is aiming to hit ocean just offshore from launch tower as opposed to just one that is aiming at the launch tower? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
pZ8xwkJMPBSmuoldj7YR
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,237,554,706 |
will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's fifth 'orbital' test flight?
| null | null | null | null | null |
z1c2sw1hhgn
| false |
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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"label": "Enlil",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Realistically there is no incentive for anyone to trade on those markets, and no reason for us to support them afaict",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Fees paid to manifold are deducted from any refunds granted during the N/A cancellation process, fees paid to the creator are returned.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Genzy
|
TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,237,786,799 |
who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th
|
Gen
|
Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
|
sgurdextpws
| null | 857.193592 |
YES
|
594270bb18a8
|
|
xx2enw5p3dd
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "veokt0fn63l",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
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},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2",
"label": "jskf",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " no worries! & thx ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
qhBMnib4Qoaw4cEgrBOx
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,237,941,341 |
kalshi-taylor-swift-holds-top-10-sp
|
Ziddletwix
|
[Kalshi] Taylor Swift holds top 10 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 with new album release?
|
veokt0fn63l
| 0.99 | 177.629858 |
YES
| null |
|
ql0tdw7qa4
| false |
k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1792636774067413502",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1792636774067413502",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Erik Bjäreholt
|
C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,132,790 |
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a
|
ErikBjareholt
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c
|
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024?
| null | 0.165602 | 1,253.731942 |
YES
| null |
qnlqqqb2n4l
| false |
k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
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"marks": [
{
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1792636774067413502",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1792636774067413502",
"type": "text"
}
],
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},
{
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"tweetId": "t1792636774067413502",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Erik Bjäreholt
|
C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,157,893 |
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a
|
ErikBjareholt
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c
|
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024?
| null | 0.165602 | 1,253.731942 |
YES
| null |
vx9cta8zos
| false |
k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
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"deleteCallback": null,
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"tweetId": "t1792650597377757456",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Erik Bjäreholt
|
C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,292,011 |
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a
|
ErikBjareholt
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c
|
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024?
| null | 0.165602 | 1,253.731942 |
YES
| null |
8u916olth9e
| false |
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "c9bce2ohmx",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " yeah, shame it's gone :( ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I was making good money on the left wing/right wing market too",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Qoiuoiuoiu
|
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,431,154 |
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
|
Qoiuoiuoiu
|
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
|
smfekue4s6
| 0.338631 | 99.653616 |
YES
| null |
|
x2jpxkp58vj
| false |
buzKxxgUTTX5DwfTq5IV4hFxhbl2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "At least one senior official",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
E.Z. rinsky
|
RtTPZ1fIeRBQWnfuht9v
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,483,215 |
will-iran-accuse-israel-of-causing
|
EZrinsky
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIjjcg39ZqmZ8wKgYzmYorfBh1oPn64e_ou7J_K7GkNwbc=s96-c
|
Will Iran accuse Israel of causing the Iranian president's helicopter to crash?
| null | 0.087422 | 75.904447 |
NO
| null |
q9bdmll5l2
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No because AGM is on 13th June.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
OgH32Rz4nj5AlmL8Iiry
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,540,217 |
will-the-new-tesla-compensation-pac
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will the new Tesla compensation package for Elon Musk be approved by the shareholders on June 12?
| null | null | null | null | null |
w2ku6e2syyp
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f2ctnklcfa",
"label": "JuhoPennanen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " the fewer weapons Germany gives to Ukraine the greater the likelihood of an attack on a NATO country.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
I8RC4jbiFAZZOlkeOsBI
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,745,293 |
will-germany-give-a-taurus-missile
|
RemNi
|
Will Germany give a Taurus missile to Ukraine before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country?
|
f2ctnklcfa
| 0.39806 | 51.019304 |
NO
| null |
|
fjjrg6ffd4b
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Next match 27 July so can resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
HyCbua8KP7XdawLVvK1l
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,238,848,397 |
will-joe-gomez-score-a-goal-for-liv
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will Joe Gomez score a goal for Liverpool before Jurgen Klopp leaves?
| null | 0.010533 | 1,951.094773 |
NO
| null |
tr35fh5dzz
| false |
gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.premierleague.com/news/4019801",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Manchester City won the 2023/2024 Premier League",
"type": "text"
},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
DAC
|
Eb1fkpyBOQz4vPtD8JFD
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,239,028,125 |
who-will-win-the-premier-league-202-fd645a1f9f81
|
DaAdCh
|
Who will win the premier league 2023/2024
| null | null | 259.370412 |
NO
|
2265d36d546d
|
|
xxgtj2tg1j
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Premier league over, is there any point waiting before resolving?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
3soJzgUXFrZERyRSW0Ia
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,239,055,263 |
will-halland-win-the-premier-league
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will halland win the premier league golden boot
| null | 0.989843 | 2,106.070838 |
YES
| null |
0108u958bw2s
| false |
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/20/rolls-royce-15m-mini-nuclear-reactor-trial-sheffield-uni/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Three prototypes by the end of the year",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": ", if they actually achieve that then they’re further ahead than I expected. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Noit
|
38Qddlafabcga8JXAOzR
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,239,077,468 |
rolls-royce-smr-nuclear-power-by-20
|
Noit
|
Rolls Royce SMR nuclear power by 2030?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
6poczze98td
| false |
d5xiBIhfJaZpKMfZlDfT9d1SOu13
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rmsmsvfpbwl",
"label": "pzet",
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},
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If Hungary does not advance to the knockouts then I will resolve yes to Group Stage",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
catto
|
SEQtNx3fVFwFGXieP9gw
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,239,195,695 |
how-far-will-hungary-go-in-euro-202
|
catto
|
How far will Hungary go in Euro 2024?
|
rmsmsvfpbwl
| null | 56.815792 |
YES
|
7e1214a352cc
|
|
koydf6fqb0h
| false |
RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "…as an owner?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
fish
|
yGq88agEH7cAaVq1NQaL
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,239,501,582 |
will-tom-brady-ever-win-a-playoff-g
|
kurt
|
Will Tom Brady ever win a playoff game again?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
nuc43wfj1yt
| false |
GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "z7ugnh5aiom",
"label": "JonathanMannhart",
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},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " A company division can see all of the members cycle out, but the division can still exist and pursue its original goal. I think individual members can leave (even a majority) while the team still exists. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
capy
|
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,239,560,115 |
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
|
capybara
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660
|
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
|
z7ugnh5aiom
| null | null | null | null |
2t1ge7txl4x
| false |
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nuc43wfj1yt",
"label": "capybara",
"start": null
},
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"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I agree.",
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}
],
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But the resolution criteria specifies: “If the Superalignment team stops existing in the form it was originally set up“.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "“The team was disbanded“ fulfils that criteria. All the three leads are gone (Ilya, Jan, Leopold), and according to reports and OpenAI itself, the project & team doesn't exist anymore as it was originally set up.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "The team isn't a standalone entity anymore, rather dissolved into the company: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
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"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/openai-dissolves-key-safety-team-after-chief-scientist-ilya-sutskever-s-exit?embedded-checkout=true",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonathan Mannhart
|
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,096,530 |
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
|
JonathanMannhart
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
|
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
|
z7ugnh5aiom
| 0.011742 | 2,782.869089 |
NO
| null |
sycx90u0gb
| false |
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23",
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"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolution please",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonathan Mannhart
|
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,147,338 |
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
|
JonathanMannhart
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
|
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
|
z7ugnh5aiom
| 0.011742 | 2,782.869089 |
NO
| null |
ob6ai5zqg6d
| false |
85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6bhgbz1mgmd",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks, resolved it",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Simon
|
rG2Eyq2jL6HBFmdTqohL
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,292,089 |
what-will-spice-be-convertible-to
|
Simon74fe
|
What will spice be convertible to?
|
6bhgbz1mgmd
| null | null | null | null |
|
dubqwuza8hu
| false |
Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "maybe Dominic will see how bad the odds are here and he’ll buy the market up",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Alex Palcuie
|
qnsbS6y0w3DRsJhireJe
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,356,849 |
will-dominic-cummingss-new-politica
|
palcu
|
Will Dominic Cummings's new political party have any success in the 2024 UK general election?
| null | 0.148053 | 1,093.608554 |
NO
| null |
|
hzop8t1gdvc
| false |
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3",
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},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If the team still existed, I would agree! Even if, as you say, people cycle in or out (ship of Theseus definition of a team).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But if the team doesn't even exist anymore as a standalone team, in any form, then… the team doesn't exist anymore as it was originally set up.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonathan Mannhart
|
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,535,398 |
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
|
JonathanMannhart
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
|
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
|
z7ugnh5aiom
| 0.033032 | 3,087.114246 |
NO
| null |
6x9ly81a0y3
| false |
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think the stretching of the term \"incursion\" and the fact that only these two publications are being considered means I should have switched my position even sooner tbh.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Panfilo
|
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,579,417 |
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
|
Panfilo
|
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
| null | null | 7,248.756808 |
YES
|
246add140b36
|
|
p14xwb5u9bs
| false |
85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kyv8lymcw1",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " It's about when cash withdrawals are enabled for the first users, so far real money has only been announced",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Simon
|
kdLjrBZQZujphlJSZBiD
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,694,381 |
if-manifold-announces-real-money-tr
|
Simon74fe
|
If Manifold announces real money trading as part of their upcoming pivot, what will be true about it when it launches?
|
kyv8lymcw1
| null | null | null | null |
|
e6m6z8d548
| false |
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The other criterion also triggers here:",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "“If the agenda is rebranded to be about issues that appear in the shorter or longer term than the initial scope, this resolves NO even if they then publish a paper on that.“",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The Superalignment project, as a project in OpenAI, doesn't exist anymore. Team members have been “integrated more deeply ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "across",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " its research efforts“. Not Superalignment.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonathan Mannhart
|
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,240,811,179 |
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
|
JonathanMannhart
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
|
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
|
z7ugnh5aiom
| 0.033032 | 3,087.114246 |
NO
| null |
p8e5h4v2fd
| false |
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Here is my F1 market for this weekend, I've subsidized it so the subsidy is M10k total, and I hope to learn a bit more about running these exact types of markets",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Check it out if interested ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vuoMr6LMdDZ94zQJ3BXL",
"label": "/Gen/f1-who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at",
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},
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"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Genzy
|
TOBr4wCpyg8UhoQ7M1vT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,241,376,190 |
who-will-finish-in-the-points-at-th
|
Gen
|
Who will finish in the points at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
|
sgurdextpws
| null | 857.193592 |
YES
|
594270bb18a8
|
|
8tqhnx8lp26
| false |
ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6x9ly81a0y3",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I've opened a limit order at 30%, if your interested",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
mint
|
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,241,602,266 |
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
|
mint
|
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
|
6x9ly81a0y3
| null | 1,806.408119 |
YES
|
74177def07ab
|
|
qj47xhj82g
| false |
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"on any trading day in 2024\"? Or is it on any trading day after claim creation on 18 May 2024 while still in 2024?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Christopher Randles
|
sFLTrrt9vVkquBti85Nu
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,241,622,334 |
will-apple-surpass-microsoft-in-mar
|
ChristopherRandles
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
|
Will Apple surpass Microsoft in market capitalization in 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
revla7jl4ik
| false |
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yall bout to develop a whole new appreciation for weasel words. \"Unequivocally\" is a HIGH bar.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Panfilo
|
EnIPKs1K04vlHWBLgbbn
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,241,769,241 |
when-will-a-rafah-ground-invasion-b
|
Panfilo
|
When will a Rafah Ground Invasion be reported by the NYT? (Weekly)
| null | null | 3,160.956445 |
YES
|
1e5fdb20dc1a
|
|
l3amb9dznd
| false |
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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"type": "mention"
},
{
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"text": " resolves YES, thanks!",
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}
],
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},
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],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Daniel Tello
|
mUSavf6Ni05YWm8fztIy
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,241,850,984 |
which-thresholds-will-bitcoin-btc-h-4b123b88ec28
|
deagol
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
|
Which prices will Bitcoin (BTC) hit in May?
| null | null | 1,318.20265 |
YES
|
90ebe110b893
|
mgj1pcvidl
| false |
brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
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"id": "qj47xhj82g",
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"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The second option, between May 18th 2024 and December 31st 2024 inclusive.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Predict
|
sFLTrrt9vVkquBti85Nu
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,269,918 |
will-apple-surpass-microsoft-in-mar
|
Predict
|
Will Apple surpass Microsoft in market capitalization in 2024?
|
qj47xhj82g
| null | null | null | null |
|
2nes6zv0af4
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The market will resolve as \"Yes\" if verified news reports confirm that Vladimir Putin has traveled to a country that is a signatory to the Rome Statute and is thus obliged to fulfill the ICC's arrest warrant while the warrant is still in effect. The market will resolve as \"No\" otherwise,",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does this resolve based on countries that are a \"signatory to the Rome Statute\"? (as stated in the description). Or do they need to have ratified it as well? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
WsZxXUlGs3QFZFzwaP4k
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,374,103 |
will-vladimir-putin-travel-to-a-cou
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will Vladimir Putin travel to a country obliged to fulfill the ICC arrest warrant while it's standing?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
kuvpl7f8kbn
| false |
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "l3amb9dznd",
"label": "deagol",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Lion
|
mUSavf6Ni05YWm8fztIy
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,476,177 |
which-thresholds-will-bitcoin-btc-h-4b123b88ec28
|
Lion
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
|
Which prices will Bitcoin (BTC) hit in May?
|
l3amb9dznd
| null | 147.227958 |
NO
|
7ddea6573084
|
ku2fiqxw4rc
| false |
WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "q9bdmll5l2",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " lol sorry, fixed it",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Iason Koukas
|
OgH32Rz4nj5AlmL8Iiry
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,516,609 |
will-the-new-tesla-compensation-pac
|
IasonKoukas
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c
|
Will the new Tesla compensation package for Elon Musk be approved by the shareholders on June 13?
|
q9bdmll5l2
| null | null | null | null |
3s1q8j0s4wn
| false |
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "revla7jl4ik",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
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"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'd definitely recommend that traders read ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
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"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/world/middleeast/israel-rafah-gaza-icj.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "this article ",
"type": "text"
},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "from a few days ago:",
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}
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"content": [
{
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"text": "The Times, and the media in general, are doubtlessly choosing their words very carefully.",
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],
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}
],
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}
|
Manifold Politics
|
EnIPKs1K04vlHWBLgbbn
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,589,299 |
when-will-a-rafah-ground-invasion-b
|
ManifoldPolitics
|
When will a Rafah Ground Invasion be reported by the NYT? (Weekly)
|
revla7jl4ik
| null | 438.879707 |
YES
|
1e5fdb20dc1a
|
|
s35zmfi77
| false |
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I've put up YES at 50%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Timothy Johnson
|
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,612,708 |
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
|
TimothyJohnson5c16
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
|
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
|
6x9ly81a0y3
| null | 1,879.397495 |
YES
|
74177def07ab
|
gh9dk6qrbue
| false |
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s35zmfi77",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
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"marks": null,
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 50% I took in a heartbeat. Will eventually reach max exposure but not there yet!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Panfilo
|
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,659,158 |
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
|
Panfilo
|
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
|
6x9ly81a0y3
| null | 7,248.756808 |
YES
|
246add140b36
|
|
6xpi3pyanev
| false |
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
|
{
"content": [
{
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{
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{
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"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Timothy Johnson
|
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,672,840 |
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
|
TimothyJohnson5c16
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
|
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
|
6x9ly81a0y3
| null | 2,371.018807 |
YES
|
74177def07ab
|
coktgodaco4
| false |
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6x9ly81a0y3",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Reposting from the other market:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'd definitely recommend that traders read ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
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"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/world/middleeast/israel-rafah-gaza-icj.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "this article ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "from a few days ago:",
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"start": null,
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{
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"content": [
{
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"text": "The Times, and the media in general, are doubtlessly choosing their words very carefully.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Manifold Politics
|
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,838,474 |
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
|
ManifoldPolitics
|
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
|
6x9ly81a0y3
| null | 111.687027 |
NO
|
246add140b36
|
|
csj9bxn7z4o
| false |
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "coktgodaco4",
"label": "ManifoldPolitics",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Acceleration heard you",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Panfilo
|
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,242,925,817 |
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
|
Panfilo
|
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
|
6x9ly81a0y3
| null | 9,561.953784 |
YES
|
246add140b36
|
|
kkdrlvilyvl
| false |
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Am I right in thinking it's impossible for this to resolve \"other\"? Seems like the other four options form a complete set",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Fion
|
BaiCUUcOadM47io8CBvA
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,243,957,225 |
conditional-market-if-weed-is-legal
|
Fion
|
Conditional market: If weed is legalised for sale in England, will the Conservatives form the Government after the next election?
| null | null | 371.140294 |
YES
|
09b2504803ec
|
|
h19g0h9m2lb
| false |
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kxtvoxvtasm",
"label": "Donald",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " working will be necessary for a machine in 2070, but why would working be necessary for the owner of the machine? Is the problem that most people won't have access to such machines, or is the problem that such machines are impossible?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
singer
|
CPfMjdbOrD8LNMjiKWmD
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,036,448 |
will-working-be-necessary-in-2070
|
singer
|
Will working be necessary in 2070?
|
CV7Do6jbn3YQu9lW8ss3
| 0.361837 | 19.6642 |
NO
| null |
|
0smm1rh25ut
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Bet they received a cease and desist letter hahaha",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,136,363 |
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
|
RemNi
|
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
| null | 50 | 50.789018 |
NO
| null |
|
u83vigiu0s
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think they might have a minimum tax treaty threshold by then, would this qualify ?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
EsgvJC0AH9ndWCwWHTvx
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,189,932 |
will-there-be-a-global-wealth-or-in
|
RemNi
|
Will there be a global wealth or income tax by 2035?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
91f9flm8al
| false |
VkkTz1STTDSaTPYFGRAZ5rsl1Mm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What if the whistleblower suicided themselves because of pressure and extreme intimidation tactiques from the company?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(I know at least one precedent from French politics, where a young whistleblower was blackmailed, threatened and harassed up to terminating their life)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Camille Berger🔸
|
wYGTeKkfmSQRdCpvkx2T
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,213,186 |
is-boeing-killing-whistleblowers
|
CamilleBerger
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdq7yHrq0Y48F_3a2s59AzZ3D1gy9uayf77BaifgJ_J2EQ=s96-c
|
Is Boeing killing whistleblowers?
| null | null | null | null | null |
k3xvn5u16f
| false |
VkkTz1STTDSaTPYFGRAZ5rsl1Mm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "91f9flm8al",
"label": "CamilleBerger",
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"text": " nvm just got what foul play meant ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Camille Berger🔸
|
wYGTeKkfmSQRdCpvkx2T
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,319,617 |
is-boeing-killing-whistleblowers
|
CamilleBerger
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdq7yHrq0Y48F_3a2s59AzZ3D1gy9uayf77BaifgJ_J2EQ=s96-c
|
Is Boeing killing whistleblowers?
|
91f9flm8al
| null | null | null | null |
8fq6cyg0txd
| false |
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lOkLKITiG1eOzK3eQjUJ",
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},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " added her as an independent just in case. I reckon she won't get the whip back, and I think there's a good chance she stands anyway. Don't think she'll win though",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Fion
|
RCWMWo8wqceRJazWgBmZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,430,881 |
uk-general-election-which-party-wil-e06772944b76
|
Fion
|
UK General Election: Which party will win Hackney North and Stoke Newington?
|
lOkLKITiG1eOzK3eQjUJ
| null | 226.964454 |
YES
|
c8b44c2c1c72
|
|
j3j9ty4v899
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
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}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,607,888 |
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
|
strutheo
|
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
0re92g5y6ein
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
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},
{
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"text": " they just committed the change to the codebase. it's now 10x'd, to +500M. resolves YES",
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}
|
Ziddletwix
|
8HhQtnQlBAoaxBs1mCXL
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,724,451 |
will-manifold-change-the-weekly-mar
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will Manifold change the weekly market creation bonus before June?
| null | 0.890642 | 1,367.433326 |
YES
| null |
|
611zx3ol3cn
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
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"text": " they just committed the change to the codebase. it's 2x'd, to +10M. resolves YES ",
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],
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},
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}
],
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}
|
Ziddletwix
|
U2lAHxC5V0bHPfusYEXr
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,744,171 |
will-manifold-change-the-daily-mark
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will Manifold change the daily market sharing bonus before June?
| null | 0.977534 | 1,349.493123 |
YES
| null |
|
gfcfpq2e5yo
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "sama collecting Ls",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bayesian
|
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,862,113 |
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
|
Bayesian
|
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
4inkb8f3df
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2",
"label": "Lorxus",
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},
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"type": "mention"
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{
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"content": null,
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"text": " ",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market resolves NO if Mana still possesses all of its major functions post-Great Pivot - namely:",
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}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "cashing out to charity ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "bulletList"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Mana can no longer be cashed out to charity—now it's only prize points that are converted to charity. this market resolves YES ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
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"type": "paragraph"
},
{
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{
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{
"attrs": null,
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},
{
"attrs": null,
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"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
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"type": "paragraph"
}
],
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}
|
Ziddletwix
|
xhDumz7QfnK0eihBVLeT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,244,978,292 |
will-spice-take-over-any-of-manas-m
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will Spice take over any of Mana's major important functions?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
y2xb9gl109c
| false |
Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2
|
{
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{
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"content": [
{
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"id": "4inkb8f3df",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " That... sounds completely incorrect, even at a surface reading of resolve criteria? Mana now lacks that function; it would have had to keep it for the market to resolve NO. If anything, the fact that Mana cannot cash out to charity any longer likely means that I should resolve it YES.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Lorxus PhD 🦊
|
xhDumz7QfnK0eihBVLeT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,245,690,844 |
will-spice-take-over-any-of-manas-m
|
Lorxus
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c
|
Will Spice take over any of Mana's major important functions?
|
4inkb8f3df
| 0.952853 | 289.148078 |
YES
| null |
isli5zwds5s
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12",
"label": "TrickyDuck",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'm moving the close date to end of july, letting you know in case you bet expecting a difference between end of year and end of july",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bayesian
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,245,739,817 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
Bayesian
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
rpo3vk3xat9
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "probably misread, I agree it seems like a YES",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Bayesian
|
xhDumz7QfnK0eihBVLeT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,245,848,784 |
will-spice-take-over-any-of-manas-m
|
Bayesian
|
Will Spice take over any of Mana's major important functions?
|
4inkb8f3df
| 0.952853 | 20.125079 |
YES
| null |
|
7slo73luqyb
| false |
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
|
{
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{
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{
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],
"text": "https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908",
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],
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{
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},
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Wow, wild. This market still probably resolves NO but still.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Dan
|
HDZ137x2KzqiOYXGPRPs
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,246,027,557 |
will-proof-emerge-that-openais-sky
|
DanMan314
|
Will proof emerge that OpenAI's "Sky" voice was trained on Scarlett Johansson's voice?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
g9is0xsglwk
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "y2xb9gl109c",
"label": "Lorxus",
"start": null
},
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " sorry, that was a typo—meant to say it should resolve YES (that's why I bet it up)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
xhDumz7QfnK0eihBVLeT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,246,146,771 |
will-spice-take-over-any-of-manas-m
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will Spice take over any of Mana's major important functions?
|
4inkb8f3df
| 0.9871 | 1,023.676846 |
YES
| null |
|
10otav5m1xte
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
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{
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|
Ziddletwix
|
xsELntIocYIEfO1l86XR
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,246,350,993 |
goals-erling-haaland-will-end-off-t
|
Ziddletwix
|
Goals Erling Haaland will end off the 23/24 Season with?
|
xlyxdqcnmhb
| null | 253.237506 |
NO
|
dfa0ce1c9175
|
|
tv2jlx0yptj
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
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|
chris (strutheo)
|
kVrkZ9lTKD3AiEMvFsPe
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,246,512,974 |
will-manifold-drop-to-1000-or-lower
|
strutheo
|
Will Manifold Engaged Users drop to 1000 or lower before the end of August?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
pz5bt7tebs
| false |
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
|
{
"content": [
{
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "I’ve got quite a few he’s said recently (was too lazy to do replies for each of them)",
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],
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{
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"text": "“Some people” ",
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"text": "“Innocent” ",
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{
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{
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"text": "“Great” ",
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],
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{
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"text": "“I don’t know” ",
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},
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{
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"text": "“Iran” ",
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},
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "“Sham” ",
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},
{
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},
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],
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}
],
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{
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"text": "“Transgender” ",
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},
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{
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "“I love you” ",
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},
{
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{
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "“This woman” ",
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},
{
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{
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "“Afghanistan” ",
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},
{
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"marks": [
{
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
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},
"type": "link"
}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"content": null,
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"text": "“Rigged election” ",
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},
{
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"marks": [
{
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://youtu.be/rBhhe7yX8BE?t=4399",
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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"content": [
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "“Sorry”/“I’m sorry” ",
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},
{
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"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "“Beautiful woman” ",
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},
{
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{
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"text": "“Ounce” ",
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},
{
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"marks": [
{
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"href": "https://youtu.be/rBhhe7yX8BE?t=1770",
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},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://youtu.be/rBhhe7yX8BE?t=1770",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "“AOC” ",
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},
{
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"marks": [
{
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"href": "https://youtu.be/rBhhe7yX8BE?t=2799",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://youtu.be/rBhhe7yX8BE?t=2799",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Joshua
|
CJagZNf5KakAyb9iGWp9
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,247,165,326 |
what-words-or-phrases-will-donald-t
|
JoshuaB
|
What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?
| null | null | 1,972.346153 |
YES
|
04b0f43fb740
|
|
kwgo4t4uhi
| false |
O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You seem pretty down to earth, betting yes.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
pzet
|
5V9EGPQwo2kNTIv4YoVU
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,247,220,137 |
will-i-interact-with-a-marriageable
|
pzet
|
Will I interact with a (marriageable) woman in 2024?
| null | 0.611327 | 147.304022 |
YES
| null |
|
2rhfsnxwprz
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"If I email them about it, will the Open Philanthropy team think it is more positively impactful for me to spend mana creating prediction markets about Effective Altruism cause areas at ~$1 each or donating it to the Effective Altruism Long Term Future Fund?\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,247,351,300 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | 0.628571 | 15.547562 |
YES
| null |
654ero8o39o
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any humans within a year?\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,247,471,695 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | 0.628571 | 15.547562 |
YES
| null |
w23s15chcfb
| false |
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "nice idea! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
stefanie
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,247,500,318 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
shankypanky
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
9zyigcil5yn
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade?\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,247,568,330 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | 0.628571 | 15.547562 |
YES
| null |
mva1uqjc95q
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Will a healthy human clone be born before 2030?\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,247,827,963 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | 0.628571 | 15.547562 |
YES
| null |
3p1phbynrx9
| false |
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"text": "Superforecasting ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Joshua
|
OTiYiZzYVRGAjrW0HNa7
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,144,638 |
will-the-manifold-partner-program-b
|
Joshua
|
Will the Manifold Partner program be changed to incentivize high quality markets?
| null | 0.533904 | 1.814216 |
YES
| null |
|
nujyl7ewl3
| false |
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My current probabilities based on a normal model:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">74: 99.6% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">78: 94.7% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">82: 71.25% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">84: 51.27% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">86: 30.96% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">90: 6.00% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">94: 0.45% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ">98: 0.01% chance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Magnus
|
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,162,461 |
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
|
thepurplebull
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
|
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
| null | null | 446.26873 |
YES
|
17782aca1998
|
xwfu5lvnlmp
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Given your recent markets, if it's not too personal to ask, are you or a loved one suffering from atherosclerosis?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,222,365 |
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
| null | null | null | null | null |
chcun21xiik
| false |
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I will wait a few days to resolve this just to let info accumulate",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Josh Wilkes
|
Kr9D3dWHl62QnzACODh4
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,379,412 |
which-us-officials-or-senior-politi-36aa15dd000f
|
JoshuaWilkes
|
Which US officials or senior political figures will attend the inauguration of the next Taiwanese President in 2024?
| null | null | 33.244556 |
NO
|
1a1a194d873a
|
|
rihmhjj3s5
| false |
1jymDDLmW8NEC6TfFIMeIQafvAI2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/man-arrested-producing-distributing-and-possessing-ai-generated-images-minors-engaged?ref=404media.co",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/man-arrested-producing-distributing-and-possessing-ai-generated-images-minors-engaged?ref=404media.co",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In this case, the suspect was also distributing the material, but I'd argue that the production is more than just incidental based on comments like “Today’s announcement sends a clear message: using AI to produce sexually explicit depictions of children is illegal, and the Justice Department will not hesitate to hold accountable those who possess, produce, or distribute AI-generated child sexual abuse material.”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Matt
|
I7BZv1UD7M2HcwIP1S49
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,429,648 |
will-someone-be-convicted-solely-fo
|
matth
|
Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?
| null | 0.361328 | 158.201476 |
YES
| null |
|
zccdd9rfr3b
| false |
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does the sex have to be at the hotel or during the stay to count? At the orgy? In association with the date? Or just happen before 24 of the listed events happen?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Evan
|
kJOoF90wOrG2yWnakE91
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,485,977 |
will-i-have-sex-in-the-next-24
|
EvanDaniel
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
|
Will I have sex in the next 24...?
| null | null | null | null | null |
61f664l1yrq
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xwfu5lvnlmp",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
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"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " not that I'm aware of! I do some work that's cardiac-adjacent so going through the list of questions I think ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "might",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " be relevant over the next few years based on what's on my radar. Probs will switch back to cancer questions soon to add some that are a bit more specific, but I've got a less of a knowledge base there.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,543,070 |
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less
|
RemNi
|
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
|
xwfu5lvnlmp
| 0.51429 | 57.181775 |
YES
| null |
|
yas4wz8jmn9
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xwfu5lvnlmp",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
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"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
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"marks": null,
"text": " I was initially going to go for \"Will we get a cure for heart disease before 2035?\", but then got really into researching ongoing clinical trials and stuff. There's so many things for cancer though, I don't know where to start.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,657,533 |
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less
|
RemNi
|
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
|
xwfu5lvnlmp
| 0.51429 | 57.181775 |
YES
| null |
|
jmcmg7olvt8
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "61f664l1yrq",
"label": "RemNi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ah ok, good to hear, I have no specialist knowledge in this area but was getting worried that the seemingly sudden switch from sci-fi futurism to such a specific illness was a cry for help",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,777,277 |
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
|
xwfu5lvnlmp
| null | null | null | null |
qhakrfw70hb
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jmcmg7olvt8",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " My Kernel Methods question was the cry for help",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,808,548 |
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less
|
RemNi
|
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
|
xwfu5lvnlmp
| 0.51429 | 57.181775 |
YES
| null |
|
ofrmx09boro
| false |
fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I won't be caught.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Zac Parker
|
3qEmA2WThbef2GBUgubz
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,248,909,130 |
will-a-manifold-user-be-convicted-o
|
ZacParker
|
Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?
| null | 0.38402 | 371.737078 |
NO
| null |
|
taml0pvoc4q
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have no clue what the motivation was for this market or what might possibly cause a future spike but I'm feeling lucky 🤞 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
uFwDiA85Ug7NA6z97KZk
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,112,541 |
will-there-be-a-significant-trend-s
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Will "Kernel Method" come back before 2031?
| null | 0.357754 | 24.84077 |
YES
| null |
r74f1k09tq
| false |
I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fixulhgnku",
"label": "BlueDragon",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " So the market closes and any qualifying countries resolve YES, then the market is reopened?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Kraalnaxx
|
WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,126,975 |
in-what-country-will-the-next-mass
|
Kraalnaxx
|
📢✊In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024?
|
fixulhgnku
| null | null | null | null |
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