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k3vy71diqe
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srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
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Bayesian
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,176,152 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
Bayesian
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | 0.614131 | 331.626449 |
YES
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|
uy491kx0b1
| false |
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Bayesian
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,239,595 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
Bayesian
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | 0.614131 | 331.626449 |
YES
| null |
|
2pn20igv91e
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
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The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,458,111 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
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Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
|
k3vy71diqe
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YES
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v53i38gyz7f
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srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
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Bayesian
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,551,185 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
Bayesian
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
|
k3vy71diqe
| 0.614131 | 331.626449 |
YES
| null |
|
mwze0jx49wj
| false |
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
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{
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|
nikki
|
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,839,091 |
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
|
nikki
|
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
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|
t9kxu4p3b4
| true |
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
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FairlyRandom
|
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,848,771 |
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
|
FairlyRandom
|
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
ou7hask2tsh
| false |
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
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{
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|
Bayesian
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,874,345 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
Bayesian
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
| null | 0.614131 | 331.626449 |
YES
| null |
|
nxohtyjm1j
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
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{
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ziddletwix
|
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,890,914 |
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
|
nujyl7ewl3
| null | 6,350.783349 |
YES
|
cd4665798487
|
|
tqjp7itlal
| true |
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
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|
FairlyRandom
|
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,249,904,343 |
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
|
FairlyRandom
|
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
g9k2sn477ul
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
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{
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}
],
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}
],
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|
RemNi
|
pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,250,105,692 |
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less
|
RemNi
|
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
|
xwfu5lvnlmp
| 0.51429 | 57.181775 |
YES
| null |
|
ilhy2oqm06f
| false |
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
|
{
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"text": " I agree models tend to default to certain behaviors, like summarization. When their prompts include instructions to, for example, add a snarky comments at the end of their responses, they will comply and their behavior changes. would that imply that they don't actually hold the preferences, and are like other tools that respond to user input?",
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"text": "I thought of some systems and I'm curious what you think classifies them as agentic or not:",
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"text": "self-driving car system whose goal is to get to the destination, while optimizing for safety, comfort, efficiency. is it relevant how capable the system is? does it matter that the destination is chosen by a user (not car)?",
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}
],
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"text": "also I see your point that LLMs extrapolate behavior. if they learn an algorithm for 3 digit numbers, they may apply it to numbers of arbitrary length. I also expect this ability to improve with scale. I think that this is a measure of ~how good the model is at predicting the correct next token following what they were taught, through memorizing associations with certain tokens (which is why it scales). I think different is from how well they can \"think\" of things they weren't taught, e.g. coming up with the algorithm itself without seeing it in prompt or training, which they can't do despite knowing everything",
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|
ismellpillows
|
IDzZ4oX9bgLGMxvmaPaI
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,250,121,763 |
add-answers-what-can-each-manifold
|
ismellpillows
|
[Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market)
|
6qrtsunve16
| null | 15.468421 |
YES
|
150e3456cbb2
|
|
oe3ztyu77u
| false |
PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1
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|
Fast YES/NO One Piece
|
sCgu21LDZPwaBBjYrWXZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,250,140,967 |
you-become-the-best-lawyer-in-the-w
|
FYNOP
|
You become the best lawyer in the world. Who are you freeing from the allegations?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
w8796le37mm
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
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|
RemNi
|
uFwDiA85Ug7NA6z97KZk
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,250,252,840 |
will-there-be-a-significant-trend-s
|
RemNi
|
Will "Kernel Method" come back before 2031?
|
taml0pvoc4q
| 0.414982 | 51.657604 |
NO
| null |
|
rnj3yzdo4jf
| false |
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
|
{
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{
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"text": "my ranking would be 1. thorp 2. buffet 3. simons 4. soros 5. idk there's a lot of options",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonathan Ray
|
PSftgsYQ7ANjVnfBHyqD
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,250,278,086 |
who-is-the-goat-of-investors
|
JonathanRay
|
Who is the GOAT of investors?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
g58u4q1r13
| false |
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
|
{
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}
|
nikki
|
HRcCE7Ql6WTyeDd3Tg6n
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,250,908,091 |
market-03eca3efaa4d
|
nikki
|
Test market resolves no
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
uuobndnuz69
| false |
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
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"text": " I deliberately chosen a lower altitude so we'd have a better chance of getting the telemetry back before that point. AFAIK we'd have a hard time telling if it blew up 2 minutes after max reentry heating, because it would likely still be in blackout. I also think surviving all of reentry is the most interesting question to me.",
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},
{
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There is already ",
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
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"href": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jack
|
qZpkm5ILHXGW4vTqEaa8
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,141,200 |
will-the-4th-starship-test-survive
|
jack
|
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
|
k3kghxxg88r
| null | 127.739493 |
YES
|
92cd3c194988
|
|
0dqxcd4q3xpn
| false |
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I make no promises that I do or don't have insider information here ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Joshua
|
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,206,525 |
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
|
Joshua
|
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
| null | null | 730.516873 |
YES
|
46eb49f725e1
|
|
mqm521qpo4d
| false |
AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7lincs8u5vh",
"label": "esusatyo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " OP got banned",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
NoRespect
|
nsO8yQmO6mrN7GaY4bI2
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,217,488 |
will-openai-release-their-video-gen
|
NoRespect
|
Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)?
|
76iu51t7xz
| 0.305562 | 76.70505 |
NO
| null |
|
znhiyp3es6e
| false |
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"text": " AFAIK vegans’ objection is not about suffering, otherwise humanely harvested milk would be fine. It’s often said to be about not obtaining consent from the animal. Although I think there’s a large component of poorly rationalized virtue-signaling as well",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ansel
|
ldm1H6jHwzWAwLUwrZKK
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,452,622 |
are-bees-sentient
|
Ansel
|
Are bees sentient?
|
eqzSOnoLByaGhhZ3Kzzy
| null | null | null | null |
|
15o07vklbci
| false |
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "r74f1k09tq",
"label": "Kraalnaxx",
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"marks": null,
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"type": "mention"
},
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Archibald Crone
|
WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,507,824 |
in-what-country-will-the-next-mass
|
BlueDragon
|
📢✊In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024?
|
fixulhgnku
| null | 180.116238 |
YES
|
e41e47504bcc
|
|
1dmiyka0vqu
| false |
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Best 2024 Presidential Election market IMO",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Paper Boy
|
Vw0gBMNgEfIqTkfFmcRR
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,575,165 |
which-states-will-be-won-by-the-dem-540e6b923486
|
PaperBoy
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
|
Which states will be won by the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2024?
| null | null | 90.3791 |
NO
|
6c09c6eccb19
|
7gexf9tmvz8
| false |
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Currently we’re still waiting for the update for March. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Archibald Crone
|
WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,608,646 |
in-what-country-will-the-next-mass
|
BlueDragon
|
📢✊In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024?
|
fixulhgnku
| null | 180.116238 |
YES
|
e41e47504bcc
|
|
dy0887ysvy6
| false |
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "irxl0a8t3fq",
"label": "JuddBlackberg",
"start": null
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Keep up good work! Good market like this one should be most eligible for the price points!!!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Quantum Gambler
|
QzSy62yqM276J3Gvi13o
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,776,740 |
patrick-mahomes-gets-divorced-befor
|
Mirek
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
|
Patrick Mahomes gets divorced before retiring from football
|
4611kiwqpij
| 0.239106 | 124.611194 |
NO
| null |
j1eqmpbcua
| false |
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonathan Mannhart
|
f422ZIhxUC0QqQBiaKMQ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,251,949,696 |
will-openai-still-be-doing-superali
|
JonathanMannhart
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
|
Will OpenAI still be doing Superalignment in June 2024?
|
ykd7cruc2v
| 0.077816 | 261.337364 |
NO
| null |
zwq3onjzw6l
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v53i38gyz7f",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " do you mean like getting it back by insider trading in your own market after you know the resolution?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,252,146,413 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
|
k3vy71diqe
| 0.614131 | 15.547562 |
YES
| null |
nyk1a1al4f
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "g9k2sn477ul",
"label": "RemNi",
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " yeah, society isn't great at scope sensitivity lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
pzwl25YUB7GblfQ83IiC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,252,300,599 |
will-lpareducing-therapy-cost-less
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
|
xwfu5lvnlmp
| null | null | null | null |
wdby2twmzxe
| false |
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
|
{
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}
],
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}
|
Quantum Gambler
|
OyzrJydfBQT9NFomacEW
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,252,540,422 |
which-team-will-win-the-super-bowl-cb8ad2211e6d
|
Mirek
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
|
Which team will win the Super Bowl? 🏈 LIX
| null | null | 656.215827 |
YES
|
686e6687aa5b
|
vur9g3ipkz
| false |
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
|
{
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{
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],
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}
|
Ziddletwix
|
xyexsngZvOh4dZYBSUKA
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,252,953,439 |
will-this-polymarket-about-finding
|
Ziddletwix
|
Will this Polymarket about finding the Iranian President before midnight ET resolve YES? (Short Fuse!)
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
1ul6l9q6n2k
| false |
z7x41Ou3ltYBfdjn4VmETLiPbE73
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is this US only?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Anonculously
|
byuCvcQe8S3Jk0NWqwVH
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,079,541 |
most-used-selfdriving-car-service-e
|
Anonculously
|
Most used self-driving car service EOY 2025?
| null | null | 120.474477 |
YES
|
30b73d21fd66
|
|
o7u4quxuk1
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
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{
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"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEGWae8LBWm.avifs?alt=media&token=87e908b0-b99b-401c-80ad-122cd4b2c256",
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},
{
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"content": [
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "eighteen ",
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}
],
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},
{
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"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "top 3 on 180th day",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
tIbWsIQPM1v6Z6hwSyxj
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,228,455 |
will-i-slay-all-20-top-creators-by
|
strutheo
|
🐲Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
630019x46ug
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
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{
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"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEGWae8LBWm.avifs?alt=media&token=87e908b0-b99b-401c-80ad-122cd4b2c256",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
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},
{
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"content": [
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "eighteen ",
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}
],
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},
{
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "top 3 on 180th day",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
QIlDNkb4Gp1iIAmeZtRA
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,235,250 |
how-many-top-creators-will-i-slay-b
|
strutheo
|
🐲How many Top Creators will I Slay by the end of 2024?
| null | null | 71.04825 |
NO
|
2c02d0c0bdc5
|
|
0g7op7r620lv
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "40% done",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
LhOrEf43G0i3wKKYCGF2
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,348,462 |
will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be
|
strutheo
|
Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2024 ends?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
wusq8exazns
| false |
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Search filters in Browse look to have had a facelift",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
David Glidden
|
eVsjvwi4WoP0VUyY0owL
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,348,502 |
let-me-know-when-theres-been-a-chan
|
dglid
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
|
Alert us when Manifold has changed
| null | null | null | null | null |
osnhykast9j
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Desantis, George w Bush",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,365,372 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
| null | null | 20.129669 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
r26o1018a1
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "40% there",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
hiAzn7PtkOEfDFTzMz39
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,373,061 |
will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be-4daa2c37bec3
|
strutheo
|
Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2025 ends?
| null | 0.775972 | 30.25641 |
YES
| null |
|
9bhsu0481xk
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "we did both already, search the answers for some funny ones",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,399,242 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
strutheo
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
osnhykast9j
| null | 4,055.836266 |
YES
|
f5e1df6a7cd4
|
|
5g3jtweds9p
| false |
zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mqm521qpo4d",
"label": "NoRespect",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
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"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " He might not resolve it but the mods can. It's well-specified enough for someone else to do it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Mira
|
nsO8yQmO6mrN7GaY4bI2
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,410,784 |
will-openai-release-their-video-gen
|
Mira
|
Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)?
|
76iu51t7xz
| 0.305562 | 275.970784 |
NO
| null |
|
mrob2jvacdl
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
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"text": "Jose Luis Ricon ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,513,955 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
| null | null | 20.129669 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
6s6ox71os5
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
{
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"content": [
{
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"text": "Henry (@arithmoquine)",
"type": "text"
}
],
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},
{
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{
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "Yuan Shao",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,771,366 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
| null | null | 20.129669 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
c32accrg03
| false |
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This should be a prize point market",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Odoacre
|
ogU0kVGmYZ346MUB2pSh
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,777,867 |
the-pivot-will-manifold-ever-give-a
|
Odoacre
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
|
[The Pivot] Will Manifold ever give a cash payout from Prize Points?
| null | 0.82 | 79.127371 |
NO
| null |
t66po5c80ts
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
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{
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"text": "The three Yuan's (Shu, Shao, Shikai)",
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "Dong Zhuo",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,253,951,067 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
| null | null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
hbc2cxws5jq
| false |
z7x41Ou3ltYBfdjn4VmETLiPbE73
|
{
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{
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{
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},
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}
],
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"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Anonculously
|
mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,040,088 |
how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t
|
Anonculously
|
How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case?
|
ic491q39kjc
| null | 3,340.691887 |
YES
|
77b4bccd3ca5
|
|
po7ovhafmjc
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
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{
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{
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"text": "liu shan",
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],
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{
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{
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],
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},
{
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],
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{
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{
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}
],
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{
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{
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"text": "Wang mang",
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}
],
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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}
],
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},
{
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{
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"text": "Albert Speer",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,083,692 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
| null | null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
qqnt3ccjrb8
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
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{
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{
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],
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}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
mqCS6FG3BVQbyziEfbFd
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,169,619 |
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-3b9178746959
|
strutheo
|
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in May 2024 according to Manifold?
| null | null | 265.759955 |
NO
|
3272d12afa27
|
|
0yik6yxd2a2h
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "King mithridates of pontus",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,180,937 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
po7ovhafmjc
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
swmzatfgnzp
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "new rule - you can vote for OTHER if a meme in this thread does not have an option yet, because they cost 250 and that would prevent people from submitting new memes ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
mqCS6FG3BVQbyziEfbFd
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,203,589 |
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-3b9178746959
|
strutheo
|
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in May 2024 according to Manifold?
|
qqnt3ccjrb8
| null | 265.759955 |
NO
|
3272d12afa27
|
|
4zapth18dgl
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
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},
{
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"text": " ESPECIALLY yuan shu",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,211,496 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
t66po5c80ts
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
p3yu18zxari
| false |
EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If people disapprove of Manifold, they will either leave the site, or leadership will fix the issues that people are unhappy about. For most of its duration, this market has been around 65%. It should get back above 50% within half a year, at which point one can sell to whichever traders are happy at that point. That's a pretty good ROI in my view.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonas Vollmer
|
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,261,570 |
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
|
JonasVollmer
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c
|
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
|
7qze9o45pfn
| 0.28 | 7,020.27433 |
YES
| null |
ra3gfltf69b
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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},
{
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"marks": null,
"text": " James Buchanan",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,287,562 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
t66po5c80ts
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
340uazkqhr3
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
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{
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{
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],
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}
],
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}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
UpfNoFH6Q6sU3HAZ2SzR
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,290,276 |
will-scarlett-johansson-sue-openai
|
strutheo
|
Will Scarlett Johansson sue OpenAI and/or Sam Altman personally in 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
6j7lu6o43ly
| false |
F5AmEfs8yrgwQfe2WI2QaCLnxlH2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6uqxzz3yjju",
"label": "Mira",
"start": null
},
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"type": "mention"
},
{
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"text": " both no assuming we are talking about gpt-4o, but I think closing this market before we get confirmation that there won't be a true 4.5 was a bit premature. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
João Pedro Santos
|
FIrMVIX47xggPtbt3nKb
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,306,694 |
what-will-be-true-about-gpt45
|
JoaoPedroSantos
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtecoxpTLGJurOP75nBQtfeKmyslcBjetqi-AF9Gkt9MN3-u=s96-c
|
What will be true about GPT-4.5?
|
6uqxzz3yjju
| null | 31.782796 |
NO
|
8651156ce356
|
0ulah183q2g
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "andronikos",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,558,001 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
po7ovhafmjc
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
sfuc9m5q4hs
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Brent dill",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,597,094 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
po7ovhafmjc
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
bavur8s3ln
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
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{
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{
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"text": " Karl donitz",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,254,691,777 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
po7ovhafmjc
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
1ppm5guqqqa
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
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{
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{
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{
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"text": " Timothy Leary ",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,255,001,237 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
t66po5c80ts
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
gyaulgcsgf
| false |
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
|
{
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{
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},
"content": null,
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},
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": " how will AGI be determined? Manifold's AGI clock?",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
jim
|
BCddoFm4VqP2Dq7ofr5C
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,255,155,660 |
will-a-world-war-ii-veteran-live-to
|
jim
|
Will a World War II veteran live to see AGI?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
7hy50yyi0l4
| false |
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": {
"id": "rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92",
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},
{
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"text": " if you post a comment here I can pay out your poker winnings ",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
jim
|
waXAZyFenSRD5BQYPZ7n
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,255,311,150 |
whats-a-well-thought-out-opinion-yo
|
jim
|
Bank of Jim
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
engohg7zv9k
| false |
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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},
{
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"text": " do Michael vassar and beffjezos for sure",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,255,326,921 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
StochasticParrot
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
6s6ox71os5
| null | 94.054979 |
NO
|
e7d97dd35ffd
|
|
g8chh8gjjfj
| false |
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"marks": null,
"text": " i need more mana </3 anyone else reading can help add them though",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
chris (strutheo)
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,255,993,444 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
strutheo
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
6s6ox71os5
| null | 4,055.836266 |
YES
|
f5e1df6a7cd4
|
|
zbp0n0i7xd
| false |
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "azm985tcoo",
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},
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " end of July 2024 since the former wouldn't feel fair since not explicitly stated before.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
notarealuser
|
tPJcrWCzfGZDFwWIavQR
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,256,031,598 |
by-when-will-new-shepard-fly-next
|
notarealuser
|
By when will New Shepard fly next?
|
azm985tcoo
| null | 172.192012 |
NO
|
67b365a71a69
|
|
8hi5gh3ujcg
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The best use of the power might be to convict powerful people who are getting away with terrible crimes, but if it's restricted to defending people, then maybe high profile political prisoners of totalitarian regimes who are undergoing show trials",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
sCgu21LDZPwaBBjYrWXZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,256,326,201 |
you-become-the-best-lawyer-in-the-w
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
You become the best lawyer in the world. Who are you freeing from the allegations?
| null | null | null | null | null |
vkxeraiws0i
| false |
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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},
{
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"marks": null,
"text": " Would also take Trump over a tankie.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Craig Talbert
|
c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,256,338,980 |
who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma
|
CraigTalbert
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
|
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
|
hdu4ef458ep
| null | 79.289039 |
YES
|
b722ad702a2c
|
4185s21e06d
| false |
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Doesn’t look like free food gambits work for low stakes questions!",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
JRP
|
KanA6iAMGg4ne6QE8OMB
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,256,359,374 |
will-i-have-procured-a-pizza-with-t
|
parhizj
|
Will I have procured a pizza with the help of the Manifold community before or on May 22, 2024
| null | 0.236609 | 13.630643 |
NO
| null |
|
vzwgzxz9hx
| false |
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Tomasik-pill gang where you at?",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
|
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,256,467,189 |
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
|
TheAllMemeingEye
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
|
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
| null | null | null | null | null |
5ta1xetkr5t
| false |
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
|
{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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{
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"text": "The bailouts are disliked becasue they were a failure of accountability and a symbol of the unfairness of the system. The banks had created the issue in the first place by exposing themselves to toxic securities (while at the same time fuelling the crazy mortgage environment that made the toxic securities possible). Then when it turned out it was a disaster, they got bailed out.",
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}
],
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{
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"text": "If the common guy makes bad investments they become homeless. If a bank makes a bad investment (or even better a lot of banks do) then they get a slap on the wrists and more money. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Odoacre
|
9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,256,974,384 |
what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes
|
Odoacre
|
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
|
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
|
sqcenuq7og
| null | null | null | null |
8d6br5nsn0a
| false |
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": {
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{
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"text": " I hadn't realized it was ever price competitive yet - that is good to hear!",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Carson Gale
|
TvKx66IyRGIXN5BO0gL0
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,257,054,215 |
will-a-selfdriving-taxi-service-be
|
CarsonGale
|
Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 12/31/24
|
66ll0l8mav3
| 0.644844 | 360.036521 |
YES
| null |
|
j69ujqk6jl9
| false |
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
|
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Josh Wilkes
|
zF6Tm1u0nlwfX9BisqIT
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,257,102,144 |
how-many-pla-jets-will-taiwans-mnd
|
JoshuaWilkes
|
How many PLA jets will Taiwan's MND report entered Taiwan's ADIZ on May 20th, Inauguration Day?
| null | null | 276.764286 |
YES
|
2f3009749e46
|
|
7d8bc87xmsd
| false |
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": null,
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
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"href": "https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/get-started/android_aicore",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/get-started/android_aicore",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
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"content": [
{
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"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://store.google.com/intl/en/ideas/articles/gemini-nano-google-pixel/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://store.google.com/intl/en/ideas/articles/gemini-nano-google-pixel/",
"type": "text"
}
],
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},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/18ca6k3/gemini_nano_is_a_4bit_325b_llm/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/18ca6k3/gemini_nano_is_a_4bit_325b_llm/",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does not Gemini nano qualify as LLM…? Already available for months with Google pixel pro 8. Billions of parameters but don’t know whether it meets the criteria of integrating into the OS. Need someone else to say whether these descriptions qualify.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
JRP
|
H1xFmTaVL0wog8BjMdOS
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,257,303,409 |
google-releases-a-smartphone-with-l
|
parhizj
|
Google releases a smartphone with LLM integrated into the OS, by 2025?
| null | 0.587723 | -0 |
YES
| null |
|
bcm9v07bt84
| false |
LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Only did 15h",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Anton Bogun
|
Ur28xl0BpcVy1DLGWf0Y
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,257,913,519 |
will-i-do-20h-or-less-of-my-project
|
AntonBogun
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c
|
Will I do 20h or less of my project this week
| null | null | null | null | null |
byme0yzzm5d
| false |
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is impossible with the pivot, right? You can’t send mana anymore?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
niko
|
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,258,348,331 |
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
|
Nikos
|
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
| null | null | 214.977995 |
NO
|
2f317831253a
|
|
lletqzsuh5p
| false |
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "byme0yzzm5d",
"label": "Nikos",
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},
{
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"text": " managrams are still possible through Manifest - they needed to keep them open so people could choose to buy tickets with mana and I think they're staying open at least through the event iirc",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
stefanie
|
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,258,379,736 |
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
|
shankypanky
|
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
|
byme0yzzm5d
| null | 582.850491 |
NO
|
5c7be309f31e
|
|
4ggasw19tks
| false |
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Let's go Oilers ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Haws
|
C5kUBJYhXGExOESAbY15
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,258,623,707 |
who-will-win-the-round-2-series-of
|
Haws
|
Who will win the round 2 series of the 2024 NHL playoffs?
| null | null | 83.689038 |
YES
|
6ba2349ce05f
|
|
vvjya4epuqa
| false |
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ticket acquired!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Andrew G
|
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,258,646,439 |
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
|
AndrewG
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
|
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
| null | null | null | null | null |
mtnjjtcvzhg
| false |
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oilers game resolves this market aswell",
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}
],
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"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/who-will-win-the-round-2-series-of",
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},
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}
],
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}
|
Haws
|
N4gxg2QX4i3i6nBCfRVH
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,258,860,913 |
mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games
|
Haws
|
National Hockey League (NHL) 🏒 Stanley Cup Playoff Matches
| null | null | 505.85824 |
NO
|
01cd984e779d
|
|
nfwxaownd1e
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
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],
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}
|
RemNi
|
EAEba3xu2gNtMdA7UqNa
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,259,233,581 |
will-openai-readd-the-sky-voice-bef
|
RemNi
|
Will OpenAI re-add the "Sky" voice before August 2024?
| null | 0.23 | 39.618549 |
NO
| null |
|
oag188xi86d
| false |
8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What counts as \"RNA World\"? Just that RNA came before DNA? That's very likely, but in and of itself is not an explanation of abiogenesis.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Adele Lopez
|
0JL7mlHVHdVnJDrwwDVC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,259,277,765 |
what-will-be-the-consensus-about-rn
|
adele
|
What will be the consensus about RNA world hypothesis in 2040?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
u5lciqf8ryg
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
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"content": [
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"marks": null,
"text": "This closes in 2030",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,259,367,039 |
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
|
RemNi
|
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
olx2rwmrke
| false |
d6La9emHJsTwmxPOZ2UdSYrlr6I3
|
{
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"text": "This is a decent take by itself but the rest of the thread is pretty bad takes.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
jcb
|
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,259,403,752 |
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
|
jcb
|
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
| null | null | 18.532062 |
NO
|
ec6305c5b4c8
|
|
o0lo3x9n75c
| false |
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
|
{
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"text": " Raised to 54 and 55",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Ben Shindel
|
y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,259,418,088 |
who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions
|
benshindel
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
|
Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship?
|
pdh38qux2vm
| null | 10,777.924915 |
YES
|
837c0a4d41bd
|
fslx0rmi7w
| false |
xqZ2EP0YJgY8Xv6ZGGi15mclE2C2
|
{
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|
WayStone
|
NPFXY9mXiuHRVQivO2YG
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,259,506,604 |
will-anyone-have-their-mind-read-wi
|
WayStone
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4MHVB6BEom0H5VfucKHIg0zA_4oW5FQbn4bp0BfZrDiJJTw=s96-c
|
Will anyone have their mind read without their prior consent before 2030?
| null | null | null | null | null |
5u9s9cjchxj
| false |
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
|
{
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{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Define \"released\"",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
RemNi
|
EwbBBBbSPOwwWEydiyPl
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,259,667,907 |
will-a-model-named-gato-2-be-releas
|
RemNi
|
Will a model named "Gato 2" be released before 2025?
| null | null | null | null | null |
|
cfxu5ty8vcr
| false |
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
|
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"text": "Just found some good examples of this",
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"text": "LLM is trained on chess games and can generate them but doesn’t punish queen blunder, because it’s not probable. Doesn’t improve with seem to scale, based on simple number game. Suggests LLMs are functions on user inputs and not agentic?",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
ismellpillows
|
IDzZ4oX9bgLGMxvmaPaI
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,260,151,407 |
add-answers-what-can-each-manifold
|
ismellpillows
|
[Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market)
|
6qrtsunve16
| null | 15.468421 |
YES
|
150e3456cbb2
|
|
7i5vbofhhc9
| false |
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
|
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
|
ahmxqdec0ReqzNMDAldf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,260,495,785 |
when-tumbles-pays-his-loans-off-wil
|
Tumbles
|
When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?
| null | null | 7,726.889308 |
NO
|
994af99c70f1
|
|
c7q1h41hp1
| false |
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
|
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}
],
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}
|
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
|
ahmxqdec0ReqzNMDAldf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,260,859,588 |
when-tumbles-pays-his-loans-off-wil
|
Tumbles
|
When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?
|
7i5vbofhhc9
| null | 7,726.889308 |
NO
|
994af99c70f1
|
|
6f43fvx2obc
| false |
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
|
{
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"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seems that submissions are paused.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
robm
|
HmxGBXFi2LWjByfZjuHa
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,260,873,276 |
will-antibombgpt-v20-be-broken-with
|
robm
|
Will AntiBombGPT (v2.0) be broken by the end of May?
| null | 0.917958 | 0 |
YES
| null |
|
hm2i923wpue
| false |
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
|
{
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"attrs": null,
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"content": null,
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"text": "OMG AGAIN",
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
|
ahmxqdec0ReqzNMDAldf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,261,061,574 |
when-tumbles-pays-his-loans-off-wil
|
Tumbles
|
When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?
|
7i5vbofhhc9
| null | 7,726.889308 |
NO
|
994af99c70f1
|
|
1hjpnfxersn
| false |
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
|
{
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],
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|
Matt C. Wilson
|
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,261,449,913 |
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
|
MattCWilson
|
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
| null | null | 1,187.909672 |
YES
|
1dde477200f0
|
|
9t31kouot3i
| false |
IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1
|
{
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{
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"text": "Figured I'd chime in, one somewhat niche use for limit orders is to just set a 1M order at some threshold where you want to get a notif if the market crosses that threshold. Sometimes you might be interested to check back in on a market if it hits a certain %",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Arcmage7000
|
PWdBYs8UwG8H1rZuECNK
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,261,452,892 |
after-one-week-will-this-market-hel
|
Arcmage7000
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c
|
After one week, will this market help me understand limit orders?
| null | null | null | null | null |
9ilxaa1tw6g
| false |
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
|
{
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"text": "I have done nothing all night but all in or fold, including no checking",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
|
ahmxqdec0ReqzNMDAldf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,261,565,486 |
when-tumbles-pays-his-loans-off-wil
|
Tumbles
|
When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?
|
7i5vbofhhc9
| null | 7,726.889308 |
NO
|
994af99c70f1
|
|
xt1at6rws4o
| false |
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
|
{
"content": [
{
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"content": [
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"content": null,
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"text": "10k yes limit at 34% expires in 2 days",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Jonathan Ray
|
2HNod63yjKRGSt7oX6Qc
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,261,692,998 |
will-bitcoin-be-over-100k-on-april
|
JonathanRay
|
Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025?
| null | 0.318627 | 5,360.881782 |
YES
| null |
|
9zv92etugi6
| false |
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
|
{
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{
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"attrs": null,
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"text": "M-D no longer Suzerain",
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}
],
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},
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"text": "Screw you, Teddy.",
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}
],
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},
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"attrs": null,
"content": [
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"text": "La Venta has been defeated",
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}
],
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}
],
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},
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"text": "Screw you, too, Pedro.",
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{
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"text": " - may I see:",
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}
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"text": "Great People view",
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}
],
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}
],
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},
{
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
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"attrs": null,
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"marks": null,
"text": "Trade Routes view, My Routes",
"type": "text"
}
],
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"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
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"text": null,
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},
{
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"attrs": null,
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"text": "Settler Lens, with the worldmap positioned centered over Torres Del Paine",
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}
],
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}
],
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{
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"text": "City States view",
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}
],
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],
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"text": "Envoy production rate, current progress, turns remaining",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
],
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}
],
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"text": "Adjacency bonuses for each city that doesn't already have a campus district.",
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}
],
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"type": "paragraph"
}
],
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"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Matt C. Wilson
|
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,262,022,155 |
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
|
MattCWilson
|
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
| null | null | 1,187.909672 |
YES
|
1dde477200f0
|
|
lpodxqrk4af
| false |
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
|
{
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}
],
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}
|
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
|
waXAZyFenSRD5BQYPZ7n
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,262,090,135 |
whats-a-well-thought-out-opinion-yo
|
Tumbles
|
Bank of Jim
|
7hy50yyi0l4
| null | null | null | null |
|
16cgydg5woah
| false |
qj5ctKEv2YWTZja2erttLPpuCUZ2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
No one
|
oA4HtGxQopr70aALEw26
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,262,182,886 |
will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena-8a62a8c91325
|
No_ones_ghost
|
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2024?
| null | 0.847418 | 20,681.328435 |
NO
| null |
|
drxcbombesf
| false |
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
|
{
"content": [
{
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"text": " 😙👌",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
Pat Scott🩴
|
ogU0kVGmYZ346MUB2pSh
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,262,294,162 |
the-pivot-will-manifold-ever-give-a
|
Stralor
|
[The Pivot] Will Manifold ever give a cash payout from Prize Points?
|
c32accrg03
| 0.82 | 33.06762 |
NO
| null |
|
gtm4mskx79t
| false |
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
|
{
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"text": "“Other” is technically ahead of Jimmy but they don’t count.",
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"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
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}
],
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}
|
ClubmasterTransparent
|
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,262,967,354 |
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
|
ClubmasterTransparent
|
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
| null | null | 21.841417 |
YES
|
a48bcbde8c65
|
|
p41hdeq12af
| false |
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
|
{
"content": [
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"content": [
{
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"label": "BrunoParga",
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{
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"text": " Both, Manifold users get to vote values and bet beliefs, that's futarchy",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
nikki
|
fgI9vwLvzvjhwnhoPNGU
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,263,200,454 |
who-should-run-manifold
|
nikki
|
Who should run Manifold?
|
gj2gdo0d6cm
| null | null | null | null |
|
ww6w009ms6
| false |
M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2
|
{
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "654ero8o39o",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
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"marks": null,
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},
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": " the idea of ASI existing and it not being my best friend would torture me 😭 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
}
|
NivlacM
|
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,263,647,141 |
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
|
NivlacM
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c
|
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
|
654ero8o39o
| null | null | null | null |
tvo2gstd2bj
| false |
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
|
{
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|
Haws
|
C5kUBJYhXGExOESAbY15
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,263,752,845 |
who-will-win-the-round-2-series-of
|
Haws
|
Who will win the round 2 series of the 2024 NHL playoffs?
| null | null | 83.689038 |
YES
|
6ba2349ce05f
|
|
cvu5dwvhtb
| false |
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
|
{
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"text": "I WON 90K OFF ",
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"text": "ACTUAL BLACK SWAN EVENT",
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}
],
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}
],
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}
|
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
|
ahmxqdec0ReqzNMDAldf
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,264,140,117 |
when-tumbles-pays-his-loans-off-wil
|
Tumbles
|
When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?
| null | null | 7,606.339624 |
NO
|
994af99c70f1
|
|
kzf6tmvkkv
| false |
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
|
{
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],
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}
|
Blomfilter
|
5rrysfmfnduAtYnAm75J
|
public
|
contract
| 1,716,264,173,668 |
will-rfk-jr-participate-in-a-presid
|
Blomfilter
|
Will RFK Jr. participate in a presidential debate in 2024?
| null | 0.216556 | 2,970.00349 |
YES
| null |
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