gtfintechlab/federal_reserve_system · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 30 924	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
recent information continued to indicate that consumer price inflation had picked up, while producer price inflation was essentially unchanged.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	549
the upward pressure on consumer prices from the increases in commodity and import prices earlier in the year was expected to continue to subside in the current quarter.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	476
the staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that, in light of further weaker-than-expected incoming economic data, the expansion of economic activity would be relatively muted for some time.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,002	663
the german economy continued to perform strongly, while recent data showed weakness in the peripheral euro-area countries.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	820
measures of hourly labor compensation continued to increase moderately with no sign of acceleration.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,008	736
for the second quarter as a whole, both total ip and manufacturing output declined, while mining output rose notably, supported by a strong gain in crude oil extraction.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	867
roll over at auction all principal payments from the federal reserve's holdings of treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the federal reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mbs in agency mbs and all principal payments from holdings of agency cmbs in agency cmbs.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	32
available information suggested that growth in business spending on capital goods likely would slow further in the months ahead.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	1,998	990
after being roughly flat over most of the intermeeting period, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose moderately toward the end of the period but remained at a level consistent with further moderate job gains in the coming months.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	676
participants remarked on the extent to which financial conditions remained supportive of economic expansion.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	234
however, the pace of job gains so far this year was slower than last year, even after accounting for the anticipated effects of the bureau of labor statistics' benchmark revision to payroll employment, which will be incorporated in the published data in february 2020.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	833
information received since the committee met in january indicated that the labor market remained strong through february and that economic activity rose at a moderate rate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	892
market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	472
single-family starts ticked up in february, and adjusted permit issuance in this sector moved up to a level slightly above starts.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	201
over the intermeeting period, market yields fluctuated in response to news about developments abroad, including greek debt negotiations.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	745
however, they noted some loosening of terms for both securities financing and over-the-counter derivatives transactions, on net, over the previous three months for certain classes of clients--including hedge funds, institutional investors, and nonfinancial corporations--and intensified efforts by those clients to negotiate more-favorable terms.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	678
participants also discussed whether to communicate to the public additional details regarding the approach they intend to take when it becomes appropriate to begin the normalization process, including the width of the target range for the federal funds rate, the settings of the ioer and on rrp rates, and the use of supplementary tools.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	959
in the ensuing discussion, participants considered the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches to reinvestment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	710
however, many participants also expressed some concerns about potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	159
the s&p 500 stock price index increased sizably, on net, over the intermeeting period, led by technology-related stocks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	368
after robust issuance earlier in the first quarter, corporate bond issuance came to a near standstill around late february in the midst of elevated volatility following the escalation of concerns about the coronavirus outbreak.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	185
consistent with the decision made at the march meeting, the vote did not formally encompass the wording of the press statement to be released shortly after this meeting.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,003	728
total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a solid pace in july and august.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	735
concurrently, however, weakness persisted in business capital expenditures, which members continued to view as the critical factor inhibiting the economic expansion.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	492
however, the recent decrease in energy prices had already led to a reduction in drilling activity and was likely to reduce some investment in alternative fuels.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	505
measures of volatility and financial stress moved down and risk spreads narrowed in many markets, perhaps partly because of investors' perceptions of diminished downside tail risks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	168
however, other participants noted that the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from the current level of resource utilization.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	38
the presentation also outlined some staff recommendations for further testing of term deposit facility operations.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,015	101
industrial production fell in the first quarter, with another drop in the drilling of new oil and gas wells as well as a decrease in manufacturing output that appeared to reflect, in part, the effects of the labor dispute at west coast ports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	233
many participants noted that, since the committee's previous meeting, the economy appeared to have lost some momentum and pointed to a number of factors supporting that view including recent weak indicators for business confidence, business spending and manufacturing activity; trade developments; and signs of slowing global economic growth.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	266
both imports and exports recovered from weak readings in february, with imports of consumer goods, automotive products, and capital goods rising significantly and exports of capital goods and industrial supplies showing particular strength.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	470
in part, worker willingness to accept compara- tively limited increases in compensation could be attributed to the apparent rise in insecurity about the permanence of jobs or the availability of alternative jobs, but the reasons were not fully understood.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,996	688
other forward-looking indicators, such as subdued readings from surveys of business conditions and capital spending plans, also pointed toward roughly flat real expenditures for business equipment in the near term.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	707
outflows from funds dedicated to emerging markets continued at a modest pace, and credit spreads in emerging market economies narrowed somewhat on net.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	278
while assessments by individual members of the likely pace of the expansion going forward differed somewhat, they generally expected growth to run at a rate that would trim slack in labor and goods markets over the forecast period, assuming no major shocks to the economy.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	570
committee policy action in their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range of 0 to 1/4 percent for the federal funds rate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	670
in china, real gross domestic product (gdp) increased at a higher-than-expected annual rate in the first quarter as the economic recovery remained broad based, with industrial production, investment, and domestic demand continuing to grow briskly.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	675
returning the portfolio to its historical composition of essentially all treasury securities would minimize the extent to which the federal reserve portfolio might be affecting the allocation of credit among private borrowers and sectors of the economy.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	144
fiscal policy is restraining economic growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	918
over the past year, broad measures of labor underutilization that include both the unemployed and workers marginally attached to the labor force had trended lower, the labor force participation rate had been relatively steady despite downward pressure from demographic trends, and layoffs had fallen to low levels.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	141
participants noted that elevated uncertainty about employment prospects continued to weigh on consumption spending.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	263
a few participants noted that other measures provided additional evidence that inflation was approaching the committee's objective; for example, the 12-month changes in the headline and core cpi, the median cpi, and the trimmed mean pce price index had also moved up from year-earlier levels.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	128
over 2025 and 2026, real gdp growth was expected to rise about in line with potential, leaving the output gap roughly flat in those years.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	607
a recent increase in oil drilling rigs in operation was seen as a positive sign for business investment, although the continued low level of oil prices was still weighing on capital investment in the energy industry.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	108
some participants suggested that the recent domestic economic data had increased their confidence in the outlook for growth going forward.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	105
participants' economic projections and policy assessments are described in more detail in the summary of economic projections, which is attached as an addendum to these minutes.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,012	35
however, business sentiment appeared to remain strong for some industries, particularly those most closely connected with consumer goods.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	839
early in the intermeeting period, conditions in short-term wholesale funding markets appeared to deteriorate somewhat.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	537
consumer loans held by banks also shrank, amid heavy securitization.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	495
commercial mortgage markets continued to show tentative signs of stabilization.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	979
the unemployment rate, at 5.0 percent in november, was 0.7 percentage point lower than in january and close to most participants' estimates of its longer-run normal level.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	271
participants observed that labor market conditions had continued to improve in recent months, with roughly half of the 22 million jobs lost over march and april having been regained.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	8
real gdp growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023 but still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary policy was assumed to remain highly accommodative.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	737
in particular, if that pressure intensified, at some point further gains in productivity would not be able to offset rising wage increases.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	1,999	523
market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	968
on the negative side, there were few indications of a possible upturn in commercial construction activity.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	279
on rrp usage was also likely supported by typical month-end dynamics.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	853
the staff provided its latest report on vulnerabilities of the u.s. financial system.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,017	899
it was again noted that the cyclical impetus to economic expansion appeared to be weaker than in past recoveries, but that the reasons for the weakness were unclear, contributing to greater uncertainty about the economic outlook.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	282
for many emerging market economies, the recent slowing in growth of economic activity was most evident in exports, industrial production, and other indicators of manufacturing activity.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	758
in december, the 12‑month change in the consumer price index (cpi) was 1.4 percent, while core cpi inflation was 1.6 percent over the same period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	375
with regard to inflation, a number of participants saw a risk that it could run persistently below their 2 percent objective, with some expressing concern that such an outcome could undermine the credibility of the committee's commitment to that objective.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	937
a few participants warned against inferring too much from comparisons of the current low level of the unemployment rate with historical benchmarks, arguing that the much higher levels of education of today's workforce--and the lower average unemployment rate of more highly educated workers than less educated workers--suggested that the u.s. economy might be able to sustain lower unemployment rates than was the case in the 1950s or 1960s.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	92
some moderation in housing starts from recent peak levels appeared likely, however, in the context of the slowing in job and income gains associated with the members' overall forecasts.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	1,999	371
homebuilding was forecast to decline somewhat but to stabilize at a relatively high level in the context of continued income growth and the generally favorable cash-flow affordability of home ownership.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	1,997	190
he felt that policymakers should instead focus their attention on improving the monetary policy transmission mechanism, particularly with regard to the activity of community banks, which are vital to small business lending and job creation.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	546
several others indicated that they did not anticipate making adjustments to the program before its intended completion.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	804
with energy price increases expected to slow next year, total pce inflation was seen as likely to fall back in line with core inflation by the end of 2011, as in previous projections.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	325
if instead deposit rates moved up in line with net yields on alternative investments, on rrp takeup could remain relatively steady.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	568
the monthly step-up in exports was also broadly spread across categories of goods.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	404
some participants commented that recent readings of inflation measures that exclude volatile components, such as trimmed mean measures, had been relatively stable at or just below 2 percent.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	352
consumer price inflation picked up in recent months, while measures of longer-run inflation expectations remained stable.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	866
with regard to inflation expectations, two of the briefings presented findings that the longer-run trend in inflation, absent cyclical disturbances or transitory fluctuations, had been stable in recent years at a little below 2 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	208
most participants judged that long-term inflation expectations either were already below the committee's 2 percent goal or could decline below the level consistent with that goal should there be a continuation of the pattern of inflation coming in persistently below 2 percent.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	679
business spending on equipment and structures was projected to expand less rapidly in light of some anticipated slowing in the growth of sales and profits.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	1,997	145
one member was persuaded, however, that such a policy move should be implemented at this meeting in order to avert the need for a stronger and probably more disruptive policy adjustment that would be needed later to head off rising inflation.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	1,998	567
in these circumstances, she believed it appropriate to gradually increase the target range for the federal funds rate, consistent with the committee's recent communications.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,016	793
reports on planned capital expenditures by small businesses showed some signs of improvement in recent months, although they remained relatively subdued.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	6
output increased markedly at both motor vehicle manufacturers and their upstream suppliers as the supply chain disruptions associated with the earthquake in japan eased.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	329
participants generally continued to judge that a tightening in credit conditions spurred by banking-sector stress earlier in the year would likely weigh further on economic activity, but the extent remained uncertain.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	857
moreover, with both core and headline inflation having been somewhat elevated, participants expressed some concern that inflation expectations might become less firmly anchored.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,008	653
meeting participants noted that real consumer spending had been weakening through the summer, responding to lower employment and tighter credit.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	612
in their discussion of the foreign economic outlook, participants generally viewed the risks from the fiscal and financial problems in greece as having diminished somewhat, although it was observed that greece still faced many challenges and that greek economic progress was likely to be limited over the near term.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	104
in their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, fomc participants noted that the data received since the march fomc meeting, while pointing to continued weakness in economic activity, had been broadly consistent with their expectations.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	21
however, the effects of these factors were offset to some extent by actual and expected easing of monetary policy in the united states and abroad and by better-than-anticipated profits at some s&p 500 firms.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	517
members agreed that the committee's evaluation of progress on its objectives would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	514
the federal reserve's balance sheet increased modestly over the intermeeting period to $7.2 trillion, as growth in securities holdings was partially offset by a decline in u.s. dollar liquidity swaps outstanding.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	69
participants generally expected that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be consistent with a sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	165
issuance of short-term securities was likely to increase in coming periods, and, as more clarity emerged in the economic and policy outlook, demand for short-term assets could moderate.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	301
conditions in consumer credit markets were little changed and generally remained accommodative.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	648
setting the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances 10 basis points above the bottom of the target range for the federal funds rate is intended to foster trading in the federal funds market at rates well within the fomc's target range.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	66
consumer spending, however, showed some signs of weakening.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,005	680
real gdp growth in the first quarter had moderated relative to the second half of last year, but pdfp growth maintained a strong pace.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	900
participants judged that moderate growth of investment outlays going forward was the most likely outcome.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,007	450
members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,003	68
the intermeeting averages of the effective federal funds rate and the secured overnight financing rate remained unchanged from the previous intermeeting period averages, at 9 basis points and 8 basis points, respectively.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	700
according to third-quarter call report data, unused loan commitments shrank for the seventh consecutive quarter, though the rate of decline slowed, especially for commitments to lend to businesses.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	483
developments in the banking sector later in the period were met with sharp reductions in treasury yields, particularly at shorter tenors.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	729
voting for this action: ben bernanke, william c. dudley, richard w. fisher, narayana kocherlakota, sandra pianalto, charles i. plosser, jerome h. powell, jeremy c. stein, daniel k. tarullo, and janet l. yellen.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,014	734
the available surveys indicated that service-sector activity continued to expand.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	58

recent information continued to indicate that consumer price inflation had picked up, while producer price inflation was essentially unchanged.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

549

the upward pressure on consumer prices from the increases in commodity and import prices earlier in the year was expected to continue to subside in the current quarter.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

476

the staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that, in light of further weaker-than-expected incoming economic data, the expansion of economic activity would be relatively muted for some time.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,002

663

the german economy continued to perform strongly, while recent data showed weakness in the peripheral euro-area countries.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

820

measures of hourly labor compensation continued to increase moderately with no sign of acceleration.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,008

736

for the second quarter as a whole, both total ip and manufacturing output declined, while mining output rose notably, supported by a strong gain in crude oil extraction.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

867

roll over at auction all principal payments from the federal reserve's holdings of treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the federal reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mbs in agency mbs and all principal payments from holdings of agency cmbs in agency cmbs.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

32

available information suggested that growth in business spending on capital goods likely would slow further in the months ahead.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

1,998

990

after being roughly flat over most of the intermeeting period, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose moderately toward the end of the period but remained at a level consistent with further moderate job gains in the coming months.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

676

participants remarked on the extent to which financial conditions remained supportive of economic expansion.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

234

however, the pace of job gains so far this year was slower than last year, even after accounting for the anticipated effects of the bureau of labor statistics' benchmark revision to payroll employment, which will be incorporated in the published data in february 2020.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

833

information received since the committee met in january indicated that the labor market remained strong through february and that economic activity rose at a moderate rate.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

892

market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

472

single-family starts ticked up in february, and adjusted permit issuance in this sector moved up to a level slightly above starts.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

201

over the intermeeting period, market yields fluctuated in response to news about developments abroad, including greek debt negotiations.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

745

however, they noted some loosening of terms for both securities financing and over-the-counter derivatives transactions, on net, over the previous three months for certain classes of clients--including hedge funds, institutional investors, and nonfinancial corporations--and intensified efforts by those clients to negotiate more-favorable terms.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

678

participants also discussed whether to communicate to the public additional details regarding the approach they intend to take when it becomes appropriate to begin the normalization process, including the width of the target range for the federal funds rate, the settings of the ioer and on rrp rates, and the use of supplementary tools.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

959

in the ensuing discussion, participants considered the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches to reinvestment.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

710

however, many participants also expressed some concerns about potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

159

the s&p 500 stock price index increased sizably, on net, over the intermeeting period, led by technology-related stocks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

368

after robust issuance earlier in the first quarter, corporate bond issuance came to a near standstill around late february in the midst of elevated volatility following the escalation of concerns about the coronavirus outbreak.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

185

consistent with the decision made at the march meeting, the vote did not formally encompass the wording of the press statement to be released shortly after this meeting.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,003

728

total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a solid pace in july and august.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

735

concurrently, however, weakness persisted in business capital expenditures, which members continued to view as the critical factor inhibiting the economic expansion.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

492

however, the recent decrease in energy prices had already led to a reduction in drilling activity and was likely to reduce some investment in alternative fuels.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

505

measures of volatility and financial stress moved down and risk spreads narrowed in many markets, perhaps partly because of investors' perceptions of diminished downside tail risks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

168

however, other participants noted that the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from the current level of resource utilization.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

38

the presentation also outlined some staff recommendations for further testing of term deposit facility operations.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,015

101

industrial production fell in the first quarter, with another drop in the drilling of new oil and gas wells as well as a decrease in manufacturing output that appeared to reflect, in part, the effects of the labor dispute at west coast ports.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

233

many participants noted that, since the committee's previous meeting, the economy appeared to have lost some momentum and pointed to a number of factors supporting that view including recent weak indicators for business confidence, business spending and manufacturing activity; trade developments; and signs of slowing global economic growth.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

266

both imports and exports recovered from weak readings in february, with imports of consumer goods, automotive products, and capital goods rising significantly and exports of capital goods and industrial supplies showing particular strength.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

470

in part, worker willingness to accept compara- tively limited increases in compensation could be attributed to the apparent rise in insecurity about the permanence of jobs or the availability of alternative jobs, but the reasons were not fully understood.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,996

688

other forward-looking indicators, such as subdued readings from surveys of business conditions and capital spending plans, also pointed toward roughly flat real expenditures for business equipment in the near term.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

707

outflows from funds dedicated to emerging markets continued at a modest pace, and credit spreads in emerging market economies narrowed somewhat on net.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

278

while assessments by individual members of the likely pace of the expansion going forward differed somewhat, they generally expected growth to run at a rate that would trim slack in labor and goods markets over the forecast period, assuming no major shocks to the economy.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,003

570

committee policy action in their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range of 0 to 1/4 percent for the federal funds rate.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

670

in china, real gross domestic product (gdp) increased at a higher-than-expected annual rate in the first quarter as the economic recovery remained broad based, with industrial production, investment, and domestic demand continuing to grow briskly.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

675

returning the portfolio to its historical composition of essentially all treasury securities would minimize the extent to which the federal reserve portfolio might be affecting the allocation of credit among private borrowers and sectors of the economy.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

144

fiscal policy is restraining economic growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

918

over the past year, broad measures of labor underutilization that include both the unemployed and workers marginally attached to the labor force had trended lower, the labor force participation rate had been relatively steady despite downward pressure from demographic trends, and layoffs had fallen to low levels.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

141

participants noted that elevated uncertainty about employment prospects continued to weigh on consumption spending.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

263

a few participants noted that other measures provided additional evidence that inflation was approaching the committee's objective; for example, the 12-month changes in the headline and core cpi, the median cpi, and the trimmed mean pce price index had also moved up from year-earlier levels.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

128

over 2025 and 2026, real gdp growth was expected to rise about in line with potential, leaving the output gap roughly flat in those years.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

607

a recent increase in oil drilling rigs in operation was seen as a positive sign for business investment, although the continued low level of oil prices was still weighing on capital investment in the energy industry.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

108

some participants suggested that the recent domestic economic data had increased their confidence in the outlook for growth going forward.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

105

participants' economic projections and policy assessments are described in more detail in the summary of economic projections, which is attached as an addendum to these minutes.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,012

35

however, business sentiment appeared to remain strong for some industries, particularly those most closely connected with consumer goods.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

839

early in the intermeeting period, conditions in short-term wholesale funding markets appeared to deteriorate somewhat.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

537

consumer loans held by banks also shrank, amid heavy securitization.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

495

commercial mortgage markets continued to show tentative signs of stabilization.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

979

the unemployment rate, at 5.0 percent in november, was 0.7 percentage point lower than in january and close to most participants' estimates of its longer-run normal level.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

271

participants observed that labor market conditions had continued to improve in recent months, with roughly half of the 22 million jobs lost over march and april having been regained.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

8

real gdp growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023 but still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary policy was assumed to remain highly accommodative.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

737

in particular, if that pressure intensified, at some point further gains in productivity would not be able to offset rising wage increases.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

1,999

523

market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

968

on the negative side, there were few indications of a possible upturn in commercial construction activity.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,003

279

on rrp usage was also likely supported by typical month-end dynamics.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

853

the staff provided its latest report on vulnerabilities of the u.s. financial system.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,017

899

it was again noted that the cyclical impetus to economic expansion appeared to be weaker than in past recoveries, but that the reasons for the weakness were unclear, contributing to greater uncertainty about the economic outlook.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

282

for many emerging market economies, the recent slowing in growth of economic activity was most evident in exports, industrial production, and other indicators of manufacturing activity.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

758

in december, the 12‑month change in the consumer price index (cpi) was 1.4 percent, while core cpi inflation was 1.6 percent over the same period.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

375

with regard to inflation, a number of participants saw a risk that it could run persistently below their 2 percent objective, with some expressing concern that such an outcome could undermine the credibility of the committee's commitment to that objective.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

937

a few participants warned against inferring too much from comparisons of the current low level of the unemployment rate with historical benchmarks, arguing that the much higher levels of education of today's workforce--and the lower average unemployment rate of more highly educated workers than less educated workers--suggested that the u.s. economy might be able to sustain lower unemployment rates than was the case in the 1950s or 1960s.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

92

some moderation in housing starts from recent peak levels appeared likely, however, in the context of the slowing in job and income gains associated with the members' overall forecasts.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

1,999

371

homebuilding was forecast to decline somewhat but to stabilize at a relatively high level in the context of continued income growth and the generally favorable cash-flow affordability of home ownership.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

1,997

190

he felt that policymakers should instead focus their attention on improving the monetary policy transmission mechanism, particularly with regard to the activity of community banks, which are vital to small business lending and job creation.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

546

several others indicated that they did not anticipate making adjustments to the program before its intended completion.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

804

with energy price increases expected to slow next year, total pce inflation was seen as likely to fall back in line with core inflation by the end of 2011, as in previous projections.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

325

if instead deposit rates moved up in line with net yields on alternative investments, on rrp takeup could remain relatively steady.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

568

the monthly step-up in exports was also broadly spread across categories of goods.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

404

some participants commented that recent readings of inflation measures that exclude volatile components, such as trimmed mean measures, had been relatively stable at or just below 2 percent.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

352

consumer price inflation picked up in recent months, while measures of longer-run inflation expectations remained stable.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

866

with regard to inflation expectations, two of the briefings presented findings that the longer-run trend in inflation, absent cyclical disturbances or transitory fluctuations, had been stable in recent years at a little below 2 percent.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

208

most participants judged that long-term inflation expectations either were already below the committee's 2 percent goal or could decline below the level consistent with that goal should there be a continuation of the pattern of inflation coming in persistently below 2 percent.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

679

business spending on equipment and structures was projected to expand less rapidly in light of some anticipated slowing in the growth of sales and profits.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

1,997

145

one member was persuaded, however, that such a policy move should be implemented at this meeting in order to avert the need for a stronger and probably more disruptive policy adjustment that would be needed later to head off rising inflation.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

1,998

567

in these circumstances, she believed it appropriate to gradually increase the target range for the federal funds rate, consistent with the committee's recent communications.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,016

793

reports on planned capital expenditures by small businesses showed some signs of improvement in recent months, although they remained relatively subdued.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

6

output increased markedly at both motor vehicle manufacturers and their upstream suppliers as the supply chain disruptions associated with the earthquake in japan eased.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

329

participants generally continued to judge that a tightening in credit conditions spurred by banking-sector stress earlier in the year would likely weigh further on economic activity, but the extent remained uncertain.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

857

moreover, with both core and headline inflation having been somewhat elevated, participants expressed some concern that inflation expectations might become less firmly anchored.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,008

653

meeting participants noted that real consumer spending had been weakening through the summer, responding to lower employment and tighter credit.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

612

in their discussion of the foreign economic outlook, participants generally viewed the risks from the fiscal and financial problems in greece as having diminished somewhat, although it was observed that greece still faced many challenges and that greek economic progress was likely to be limited over the near term.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

104

in their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, fomc participants noted that the data received since the march fomc meeting, while pointing to continued weakness in economic activity, had been broadly consistent with their expectations.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

21

however, the effects of these factors were offset to some extent by actual and expected easing of monetary policy in the united states and abroad and by better-than-anticipated profits at some s&p 500 firms.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

517

members agreed that the committee's evaluation of progress on its objectives would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

514

the federal reserve's balance sheet increased modestly over the intermeeting period to $7.2 trillion, as growth in securities holdings was partially offset by a decline in u.s. dollar liquidity swaps outstanding.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

69

participants generally expected that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be consistent with a sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

165

issuance of short-term securities was likely to increase in coming periods, and, as more clarity emerged in the economic and policy outlook, demand for short-term assets could moderate.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

301

conditions in consumer credit markets were little changed and generally remained accommodative.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

648

setting the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances 10 basis points above the bottom of the target range for the federal funds rate is intended to foster trading in the federal funds market at rates well within the fomc's target range.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

66

consumer spending, however, showed some signs of weakening.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,005

680

real gdp growth in the first quarter had moderated relative to the second half of last year, but pdfp growth maintained a strong pace.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

900

participants judged that moderate growth of investment outlays going forward was the most likely outcome.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,007

450

members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,003

68

the intermeeting averages of the effective federal funds rate and the secured overnight financing rate remained unchanged from the previous intermeeting period averages, at 9 basis points and 8 basis points, respectively.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

700

according to third-quarter call report data, unused loan commitments shrank for the seventh consecutive quarter, though the rate of decline slowed, especially for commitments to lend to businesses.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

483

developments in the banking sector later in the period were met with sharp reductions in treasury yields, particularly at shorter tenors.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

729

voting for this action: ben bernanke, william c. dudley, richard w. fisher, narayana kocherlakota, sandra pianalto, charles i. plosser, jerome h. powell, jeremy c. stein, daniel k. tarullo, and janet l. yellen.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,014

734

the available surveys indicated that service-sector activity continued to expand.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

58