gtfintechlab/federal_reserve_system · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 30 924	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	157
the slowing appeared to mainly reflect transitory factors like lower energy consumption induced by warm weather or delays in processing income tax refunds.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	269
mr. mcteer does not believe that rapid growth based on new technology, rising productivity, and other supply-side factors is inflationary, especially in the current global environment.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	336
in making these judgments, most policymakers emphasized the primacy of maintaining monetary control in setting the appropriate capacity of the on rrp facility for the time being; participants indicated that the committee's future decisions regarding the size and ultimate longevity of the facility should be largely driven by considerations of monetary control, although other factors, such as financial stability, should also be taken into account.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	586
in november, however, the components of the nominal retail sales data used to estimate pce stepped down, possibly reflecting some holiday sales having been pulled forward to october.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	908
staff review of the economic situation the information reviewed at the january 29-30 meeting indicated that the expansion in overall economic activity slowed in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors, but private domestic final demand grew at a solid rate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	14
imports from china were especially weak, which may in part reflect seasonal adjustment issues related to the timing of the chinese new year.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	582
gains in consumer spending picked up for the quarter as a whole, driven by a surge in january that was followed by a small net decline over february and march.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	293
manufacturing, notably in high-tech industries, led the way, but growth in mining and utilities also was sizable.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	34
a substantial majority now viewed the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced, with several of them indicating the risks from brexit had receded.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	706
thus, inventory investment was likely to respond to the expected deceleration in final sales over coming quarters.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	1,998	326
with sales and profits projected to grow more slowly, and with utilization of existing capacity having eased considerably, business investment in new equipment and structures was expected to expand at a more moderate rate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	1,996	886
it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday, september 18, 2007.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,007	682
in particular, these participants preferred forward guidance in which the target range for the federal funds rate remained at the elb until inflation had moved above 2 percent for some time.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	931
nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	181
activity in the housing sector improved somewhat in recent months but remained slow.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	80
at its meeting on august 22, 2000, the committee adopted a directive that called for maintaining conditions in reserve markets consistent with an unchanged federal funds rate of about 6-1/2 percent.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,000	497
though banks in the april sloos reported tightening standards on new consumer loans, respondents also experienced weaker demand for all consumer loan types.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	63
in furtherance of these objectives, the committee at its meeting in july reaffirmed the ranges it had established in february for growth of m2 and m3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 1997.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,997	79
market participants attributed some of the recent decline in market repo rates to a reduction in the supply of treasury bills in advance of the reinstatement of the statutory debt limit on march 16.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	406
a number of factors continued to be seen as likely to limit the economic expansion to a moderate pace in the near term; these included slow growth or even contraction in some major foreign economies, ongoing and prospective fiscal tightening in the united states, modest growth in household income, and--despite some recent signs of improvement--continued weakness in the housing sector.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	786
the termination of some inducements to purchase motor vehicles was expected to retard expenditures on consumer durables in the latter part of this year.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,005	311
most participants continued to anticipate that, based on their assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, the conditions for policy firming had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	986
as a result, the announcement of the decision elicited little market reaction, as did the subsequent publication of the minutes of the meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	821
against this background, the federal reserve bank of new york had brought together key interested parties with the aim of increasing the probability of an orderly private-sector solution to the hedge fund's difficulties.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	1,998	33
participants also discussed the possible implications of a flattening in the term structure of market interest rates.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	296
the timing and magnitude of the impact of the stimulus package on gdp was also seen as depending on the extent to which the boost to consumption spending is absorbed by a temporary run-down in firms' inventories or by an increase in imports rather than by an expansion in domestic output.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	62
however, the effects of these communications on the expected path for the federal funds rate were more than offset by reactions to stronger-than-expected data for the labor market and consumer inflation, along with perceptions of receding downside risks to the foreign economic outlook.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	211
real personal consumption expenditures (pce) increased at a moderate pace in the third quarter, supported by continued gains in employment, real disposable personal income, and households' net worth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	339
by contrast, district reports regarding the construction sector were mixed, although here, too, some contacts reported that supply constraints were acting as a drag on activity.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	542
however, economic activity continued to be depressed in areas affected by the downturn in the energy sector and falling agricultural commodity prices, although several participants noted that the recent firming in crude oil prices had led to a modest increase in drilling activity.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	56
participants judged that overall conditions in labor markets had continued to improve, albeit gradually.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	396
explanations tended to focus on the concerns about job security felt by many workers, the muted rise in the costs of worker benefits, notably for health care, and the increased use of innovative and highly targeted methods of compensation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,997	768
for 2000, the committee agreed on a tentative basis in june to retain the same ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2000.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,999	628
bond issuance by domestic corporations generally stayed strong, commercial and industrial loans on banks' books increased by a notable amount late in the fourth quarter, and issuance of leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations generally continued apace.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	764
another possibility might be for the committee to express the inflation goal as a range centered on 2 percent and aim to achieve inflation outcomes in the upper end of the range in periods when resource utilization was high.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	545
consumer spending continued to advance, but spending on items other than motor vehicles was relatively soft.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	340
the committee's action at the january 30 meeting had been viewed by market participants as the most likely outcome, but near-term futures rates declined a few basis points as investors had placed some probability on a smaller policy move.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	742
since the beginning of the year, the housing sector had continued to improve and the drag from net exports appeared to have lessened, but business fixed investment had been soft.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	30
the committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	657
similarly, employment would be temporarily depressed by the hurricanes, but, abstracting from those effects, employment gains were anticipated to remain solid, and the unemployment rate was expected to decline a bit further by year-end.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	241
sales of existing single-family homes in october were only a bit below the record level set in september.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	324
equity prices had varied widely and were substantially lower, on net.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	725
compensation per hour in the nonfarm business sector increased 3-1/4 percent over the four quarters of 2016, and average hourly earnings for all employees increased 2-3/4 percent over the 12 months ending in february.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	449
tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	407
inventories in most industries looked to be fairly well aligned with sales in recent months, although motor vehicle stocks were still relatively lean.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	53
the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons was little changed on net.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	200
but many believed that the slow growth in economic activity anticipated for the first half of this year and the associated slack in resource utilization would contribute to an easing of price pressures.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	97
inflation was running below the committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations were stable.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	150
in addition, the british government launched its asset protection scheme, which insured assets placed in the scheme by the royal bank of scotland and lloyds bank.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	194
readings on economic activity in latin america were more mixed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	747
it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday, august 10, 2010.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,010	310
moreover, some members continued to see downside risks to inflation from the possibility of further dollar appreciation and declines in commodity prices.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	7
d. to maintain an overall open position in all foreign currencies not exceeding $25.0 billion.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,007	805
the u.s. international trade deficit narrowed in may as the value of exports of goods and services rose slightly and the value of imports declined, partly reflecting a sharp drop in the value of oil imports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,005	390
purchases of motor vehicles surged in response to aggressive zero-rate financing packages offered by automakers, while spending on other goods made a partial recovery from the september drop.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	245
exports of industrial supplies and consumer goods also rose strongly, while exports of services expanded modestly.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	18
the outlook remained subject, as usual, to considerable uncertainty, but many of the members observed that underlying trends in key sectors of the economy along with generally supportive financial conditions seemed consistent with further moderate economic expansion.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	1,996	341
however, those effects were reversed late in the period when investors appeared to pull back from riskier assets in reaction to rising concern about developments in some emerging market economies and their possible implications for global economic growth.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	286
several participants discussed the pickup in residential investment in the first quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	461
conditions in the agricultural sector reportedly improved somewhat, but contacts were concerned about the effect of potentially higher tariffs on their exports.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	656
staff review of the economic situation the information available at the time of the march 15–16 meeting suggested that u.s. real gross domestic product (gdp) was increasing in the first quarter at a pace that was slower than the rapid gain posted in the fourth quarter of 2021.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	363
the increase in exports primarily reflected higher exports of services and agricultural products.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	940
as experience had shown, at times of economic and financial market stress the specific policy tools used would depend on circumstances.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	649
the members concurred with the staff's recommendation that the staff studies prepared for the committee in january 2001, when it discussed in detail various alternatives to holding u.s. government securities, should be released to the public after light editing was completed.	irrelevant	not forward looking	uncertain	2,002	15
real gdp growth slowed markedly in china, largely reflecting lower investment growth and exports.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	342
nevertheless, the staff continued to forecast that economic activity would increase more rapidly in the second half of this year than over the first half, as supply chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector eased.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	798
in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	873
anecdotal reports from business contacts about capital spending plans were indicative of appreciable further acceleration in business expenditures on a widening range of capital goods.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	123
investors also focused on the state of negotiations over brexit and the italian government budget deficit.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	906
business sector debt advanced more slowly in the second quarter, although the expansion of business loans remained brisk and net issuance of corporate bonds was solid.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	722
such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	110
most participants indicated a preference for clarifying the dependence of the current forward guidance on economic data and the committee's assessment of progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	31
the nominal u.s. international trade deficit remained about unchanged in june before narrowing in july.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	664
in this regard, members referred to earlier unsustainable rates of investment by many high-tech firms that were now obliged to retrench despite still high rates of growth in the demand for their products and services.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	720
overall, credit quality remained strong, although there was some deterioration for credit card and auto loan borrowers and some predictors of future credit quality worsened a bit further.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	521
real disposable personal income fell for the fourth consecutive month in september, reflecting the weakness in the labor market.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	175
business contacts in a couple of districts—particularly those in the manufacturing, health-care, and technology sectors—reported having trouble hiring workers for reasons likely related to virus cases or workers' need to provide childcare.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	392
international trade in emerging market economies picked up, supported by chinese demand, while demand from advanced economies still appeared weak.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	817
participants noted that, in light of conditions in the business sector, business investment spending continued to be subdued.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	953
excluding food and energy, inflation appeared to have moderated slightly from its pace in the early part of the year.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,005	328
in contrast to many other types of loans, the payment performance of home mortgages improved.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	126
this retreat led to a broad appreciation of the dollar as well as declines in equity prices abroad and in yields on benchmark sovereign bonds.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	4
looking ahead, a number of factors seemed likely to undergird consumer spending, including the positive effects on permanent incomes of robust ongoing growth in productivity, the possibly accelerated phase-in of tax reductions stemming from earlier legislation, the prospects for additional reductions in federal taxes affecting household incomes, and more generally the continued favorable effects of low interest rates and widely available financing on consumer purchases of motor vehicles and other durables.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	889
in fact, recent orders and shipments data suggested an upturn in spending for new equipment, but the improvement was still quite limited, unevenly distributed across industries, and not yet firmly indicative of a sustained advance.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,002	989
spreads on most types of longer-tenor commercial paper and negotiable certificates of deposit narrowed, reportedly reflecting reduced market concerns about the effects of russia's invasion of ukraine, although some of the spreads remained slightly wider than those seen earlier this year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	726
at the conclusion of this discussion, the committee voted to authorize and direct the federal reserve bank of new york, until it is instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the system account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: the federal open market committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,000	414
(data on compensation per hour that reflected the comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts by the bureau of economic analysis (bea) were not available at the time of the meeting.)	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,018	965
on november 17, the board of governors announced a reduction in the maximum maturity of loans available under the discount window's primary credit program from 90 days to 28 days, effective january 14, 2010.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,009	661
aggregate labor market conditions had been mixed in recent months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,002	9
in the past year, businesses had added to inventories at a rate that exceeded the rise in final sales, and somewhat reduced accumulation to a pace more in line with that of final sales was seen as a reasonable expectation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	197
participants generally agreed that such steps to return the federal reserve's liquidity provision to a normal footing would be technical adjustments to reflect the notable diminution of the market strains that had made the creation of new liquidity facilities and expansion of existing facilities necessary and emphasized that such steps would not indicate a change in the committee's assessment of the appropriate stance of monetary policy or the proper time to begin moving to a less accommodative policy stance.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	435
total u.s. consumer prices, as measured by the pce price index, increased 2 percent over the 12 months ending in march.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	553
it was noted that credit conditions had eased further, although nonfinancial corporations continued to hold very high levels of cash.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	887
recent data on initial claims for unemployment insurance pointed to a further moderation in employment losses in january.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	160
in contrast, some other participants continued to express concern that a substantial undershooting of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment, if it was to occur, posed a significant upside risk to inflation, in part because of the possibility that the behavior of inflation could differ from that in recent decades.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	637
the committee agreed that that the statement to be released after the meeting should take note of the substantial policy easing to date and the ongoing measures to foster market liquidity.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	950
growth of m2 moderated somewhat in january and february from a brisk pace in late 1996, while expansion of m3 remained rapid in both months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,997	799
they expressed a range of views on the appropriate pace of purchases, both now and as the outlook evolved.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	88
the u.s. trade deficit in goods and services reached another new high in february as the value of imports rose sharply further and the value of exports changed little.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	487

market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

157

the slowing appeared to mainly reflect transitory factors like lower energy consumption induced by warm weather or delays in processing income tax refunds.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

269

mr. mcteer does not believe that rapid growth based on new technology, rising productivity, and other supply-side factors is inflationary, especially in the current global environment.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

336

in making these judgments, most policymakers emphasized the primacy of maintaining monetary control in setting the appropriate capacity of the on rrp facility for the time being; participants indicated that the committee's future decisions regarding the size and ultimate longevity of the facility should be largely driven by considerations of monetary control, although other factors, such as financial stability, should also be taken into account.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

586

in november, however, the components of the nominal retail sales data used to estimate pce stepped down, possibly reflecting some holiday sales having been pulled forward to october.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

908

staff review of the economic situation the information reviewed at the january 29-30 meeting indicated that the expansion in overall economic activity slowed in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors, but private domestic final demand grew at a solid rate.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

14

imports from china were especially weak, which may in part reflect seasonal adjustment issues related to the timing of the chinese new year.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

582

gains in consumer spending picked up for the quarter as a whole, driven by a surge in january that was followed by a small net decline over february and march.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

293

manufacturing, notably in high-tech industries, led the way, but growth in mining and utilities also was sizable.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

34

a substantial majority now viewed the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced, with several of them indicating the risks from brexit had receded.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

706

thus, inventory investment was likely to respond to the expected deceleration in final sales over coming quarters.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

1,998

326

with sales and profits projected to grow more slowly, and with utilization of existing capacity having eased considerably, business investment in new equipment and structures was expected to expand at a more moderate rate.

dovish

forward looking

certain

1,996

886

it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday, september 18, 2007.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,007

682

in particular, these participants preferred forward guidance in which the target range for the federal funds rate remained at the elb until inflation had moved above 2 percent for some time.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

931

nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

181

activity in the housing sector improved somewhat in recent months but remained slow.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

80

at its meeting on august 22, 2000, the committee adopted a directive that called for maintaining conditions in reserve markets consistent with an unchanged federal funds rate of about 6-1/2 percent.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,000

497

though banks in the april sloos reported tightening standards on new consumer loans, respondents also experienced weaker demand for all consumer loan types.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

63

in furtherance of these objectives, the committee at its meeting in july reaffirmed the ranges it had established in february for growth of m2 and m3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 1997.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,997

79

market participants attributed some of the recent decline in market repo rates to a reduction in the supply of treasury bills in advance of the reinstatement of the statutory debt limit on march 16.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

406

a number of factors continued to be seen as likely to limit the economic expansion to a moderate pace in the near term; these included slow growth or even contraction in some major foreign economies, ongoing and prospective fiscal tightening in the united states, modest growth in household income, and--despite some recent signs of improvement--continued weakness in the housing sector.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

786

the termination of some inducements to purchase motor vehicles was expected to retard expenditures on consumer durables in the latter part of this year.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,005

311

most participants continued to anticipate that, based on their assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, the conditions for policy firming had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

986

as a result, the announcement of the decision elicited little market reaction, as did the subsequent publication of the minutes of the meeting.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

821

against this background, the federal reserve bank of new york had brought together key interested parties with the aim of increasing the probability of an orderly private-sector solution to the hedge fund's difficulties.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

1,998

33

participants also discussed the possible implications of a flattening in the term structure of market interest rates.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

296

the timing and magnitude of the impact of the stimulus package on gdp was also seen as depending on the extent to which the boost to consumption spending is absorbed by a temporary run-down in firms' inventories or by an increase in imports rather than by an expansion in domestic output.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

62

however, the effects of these communications on the expected path for the federal funds rate were more than offset by reactions to stronger-than-expected data for the labor market and consumer inflation, along with perceptions of receding downside risks to the foreign economic outlook.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

211

real personal consumption expenditures (pce) increased at a moderate pace in the third quarter, supported by continued gains in employment, real disposable personal income, and households' net worth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

339

by contrast, district reports regarding the construction sector were mixed, although here, too, some contacts reported that supply constraints were acting as a drag on activity.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

542

however, economic activity continued to be depressed in areas affected by the downturn in the energy sector and falling agricultural commodity prices, although several participants noted that the recent firming in crude oil prices had led to a modest increase in drilling activity.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

56

participants judged that overall conditions in labor markets had continued to improve, albeit gradually.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

396

explanations tended to focus on the concerns about job security felt by many workers, the muted rise in the costs of worker benefits, notably for health care, and the increased use of innovative and highly targeted methods of compensation.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,997

768

for 2000, the committee agreed on a tentative basis in june to retain the same ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2000.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,999

628

bond issuance by domestic corporations generally stayed strong, commercial and industrial loans on banks' books increased by a notable amount late in the fourth quarter, and issuance of leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations generally continued apace.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

764

another possibility might be for the committee to express the inflation goal as a range centered on 2 percent and aim to achieve inflation outcomes in the upper end of the range in periods when resource utilization was high.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

545

consumer spending continued to advance, but spending on items other than motor vehicles was relatively soft.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

340

the committee's action at the january 30 meeting had been viewed by market participants as the most likely outcome, but near-term futures rates declined a few basis points as investors had placed some probability on a smaller policy move.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

742

since the beginning of the year, the housing sector had continued to improve and the drag from net exports appeared to have lessened, but business fixed investment had been soft.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

30

the committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

657

similarly, employment would be temporarily depressed by the hurricanes, but, abstracting from those effects, employment gains were anticipated to remain solid, and the unemployment rate was expected to decline a bit further by year-end.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

241

sales of existing single-family homes in october were only a bit below the record level set in september.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

324

equity prices had varied widely and were substantially lower, on net.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

725

compensation per hour in the nonfarm business sector increased 3-1/4 percent over the four quarters of 2016, and average hourly earnings for all employees increased 2-3/4 percent over the 12 months ending in february.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

449

tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

407

inventories in most industries looked to be fairly well aligned with sales in recent months, although motor vehicle stocks were still relatively lean.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

53

the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons was little changed on net.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

200

but many believed that the slow growth in economic activity anticipated for the first half of this year and the associated slack in resource utilization would contribute to an easing of price pressures.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

97

inflation was running below the committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations were stable.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

150

in addition, the british government launched its asset protection scheme, which insured assets placed in the scheme by the royal bank of scotland and lloyds bank.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

194

readings on economic activity in latin america were more mixed.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

747

it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday, august 10, 2010.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,010

310

moreover, some members continued to see downside risks to inflation from the possibility of further dollar appreciation and declines in commodity prices.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

7

d. to maintain an overall open position in all foreign currencies not exceeding $25.0 billion.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,007

805

the u.s. international trade deficit narrowed in may as the value of exports of goods and services rose slightly and the value of imports declined, partly reflecting a sharp drop in the value of oil imports.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,005

390

purchases of motor vehicles surged in response to aggressive zero-rate financing packages offered by automakers, while spending on other goods made a partial recovery from the september drop.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,001

245

exports of industrial supplies and consumer goods also rose strongly, while exports of services expanded modestly.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

18

the outlook remained subject, as usual, to considerable uncertainty, but many of the members observed that underlying trends in key sectors of the economy along with generally supportive financial conditions seemed consistent with further moderate economic expansion.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

1,996

341

however, those effects were reversed late in the period when investors appeared to pull back from riskier assets in reaction to rising concern about developments in some emerging market economies and their possible implications for global economic growth.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

286

several participants discussed the pickup in residential investment in the first quarter.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

461

conditions in the agricultural sector reportedly improved somewhat, but contacts were concerned about the effect of potentially higher tariffs on their exports.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

656

staff review of the economic situation the information available at the time of the march 15–16 meeting suggested that u.s. real gross domestic product (gdp) was increasing in the first quarter at a pace that was slower than the rapid gain posted in the fourth quarter of 2021.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

363

the increase in exports primarily reflected higher exports of services and agricultural products.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

940

as experience had shown, at times of economic and financial market stress the specific policy tools used would depend on circumstances.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,003

649

the members concurred with the staff's recommendation that the staff studies prepared for the committee in january 2001, when it discussed in detail various alternatives to holding u.s. government securities, should be released to the public after light editing was completed.

irrelevant

not forward looking

uncertain

2,002

15

real gdp growth slowed markedly in china, largely reflecting lower investment growth and exports.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

342

nevertheless, the staff continued to forecast that economic activity would increase more rapidly in the second half of this year than over the first half, as supply chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector eased.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

798

in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

873

anecdotal reports from business contacts about capital spending plans were indicative of appreciable further acceleration in business expenditures on a widening range of capital goods.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

123

investors also focused on the state of negotiations over brexit and the italian government budget deficit.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

906

business sector debt advanced more slowly in the second quarter, although the expansion of business loans remained brisk and net issuance of corporate bonds was solid.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

722

such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

110

most participants indicated a preference for clarifying the dependence of the current forward guidance on economic data and the committee's assessment of progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

31

the nominal u.s. international trade deficit remained about unchanged in june before narrowing in july.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

664

in this regard, members referred to earlier unsustainable rates of investment by many high-tech firms that were now obliged to retrench despite still high rates of growth in the demand for their products and services.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

720

overall, credit quality remained strong, although there was some deterioration for credit card and auto loan borrowers and some predictors of future credit quality worsened a bit further.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

521

real disposable personal income fell for the fourth consecutive month in september, reflecting the weakness in the labor market.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

175

business contacts in a couple of districts—particularly those in the manufacturing, health-care, and technology sectors—reported having trouble hiring workers for reasons likely related to virus cases or workers' need to provide childcare.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

392

international trade in emerging market economies picked up, supported by chinese demand, while demand from advanced economies still appeared weak.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

817

participants noted that, in light of conditions in the business sector, business investment spending continued to be subdued.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

953

excluding food and energy, inflation appeared to have moderated slightly from its pace in the early part of the year.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,005

328

in contrast to many other types of loans, the payment performance of home mortgages improved.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

126

this retreat led to a broad appreciation of the dollar as well as declines in equity prices abroad and in yields on benchmark sovereign bonds.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

4

looking ahead, a number of factors seemed likely to undergird consumer spending, including the positive effects on permanent incomes of robust ongoing growth in productivity, the possibly accelerated phase-in of tax reductions stemming from earlier legislation, the prospects for additional reductions in federal taxes affecting household incomes, and more generally the continued favorable effects of low interest rates and widely available financing on consumer purchases of motor vehicles and other durables.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,003

889

in fact, recent orders and shipments data suggested an upturn in spending for new equipment, but the improvement was still quite limited, unevenly distributed across industries, and not yet firmly indicative of a sustained advance.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,002

989

spreads on most types of longer-tenor commercial paper and negotiable certificates of deposit narrowed, reportedly reflecting reduced market concerns about the effects of russia's invasion of ukraine, although some of the spreads remained slightly wider than those seen earlier this year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

726

at the conclusion of this discussion, the committee voted to authorize and direct the federal reserve bank of new york, until it is instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the system account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: the federal open market committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,000

414

(data on compensation per hour that reflected the comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts by the bureau of economic analysis (bea) were not available at the time of the meeting.)

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,018

965

on november 17, the board of governors announced a reduction in the maximum maturity of loans available under the discount window's primary credit program from 90 days to 28 days, effective january 14, 2010.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,009

661

aggregate labor market conditions had been mixed in recent months.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,002

9

in the past year, businesses had added to inventories at a rate that exceeded the rise in final sales, and somewhat reduced accumulation to a pace more in line with that of final sales was seen as a reasonable expectation.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

197

participants generally agreed that such steps to return the federal reserve's liquidity provision to a normal footing would be technical adjustments to reflect the notable diminution of the market strains that had made the creation of new liquidity facilities and expansion of existing facilities necessary and emphasized that such steps would not indicate a change in the committee's assessment of the appropriate stance of monetary policy or the proper time to begin moving to a less accommodative policy stance.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

435

total u.s. consumer prices, as measured by the pce price index, increased 2 percent over the 12 months ending in march.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

553

it was noted that credit conditions had eased further, although nonfinancial corporations continued to hold very high levels of cash.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

887

recent data on initial claims for unemployment insurance pointed to a further moderation in employment losses in january.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

160

in contrast, some other participants continued to express concern that a substantial undershooting of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment, if it was to occur, posed a significant upside risk to inflation, in part because of the possibility that the behavior of inflation could differ from that in recent decades.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

637

the committee agreed that that the statement to be released after the meeting should take note of the substantial policy easing to date and the ongoing measures to foster market liquidity.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

950

growth of m2 moderated somewhat in january and february from a brisk pace in late 1996, while expansion of m3 remained rapid in both months.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,997

799

they expressed a range of views on the appropriate pace of purchases, both now and as the outlook evolved.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

88

the u.s. trade deficit in goods and services reached another new high in february as the value of imports rose sharply further and the value of exports changed little.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

487