gtfintechlab/federal_reserve_system · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 30 924	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
inflationary pressures remained subdued in most foreign economies amid substantial economic slack.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	134
a number of participants commented that the counterparties at such a facility should include depository institutions.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	522
should market conditions appear to warrant the resumption of schedule 1 tslf or top auctions, the account manager is to consult with the chairman and, if possible, the board and the federal open market committee.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	422
housing activity was improving, with sales and new construction trending higher.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	239
a concern in this regard was that the apparent upturn in final demand, particularly if it proved to be somewhat stronger than currently expected, and related business optimism about sales prospects might well result in a further buildup of inventories at a relatively rapid rate.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	1,997	996
business expenditures on nonresidential structures also were seen to be advancing robustly in a number of markets, possibly providing some offset to reduced residential construction activity.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,006	146
although the rate of job openings moved up in february, the hiring rate was flat and continued to be subdued.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	218
however, other participants anticipated that talf loans would increase over time as financial market institutions became more familiar with the program.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	290
in the committee's discussion of possible intermeeting adjustments to policy, all the members indicated at least some preference for retaining a symmetric directive.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,996	783
the drop in commercial real estate loans persisted, reflecting weak fundamentals that limited originations as well as charge-offs of existing loans.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	473
on the one hand, the participation rate for prime-age males remained significantly below its level before the financial crisis, suggesting that it could rise further over time.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	315
nevertheless, recent data on foreign industrial production and trade seemed to be stronger than private analysts had anticipated and were consistent with moderate economic growth abroad.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	815
the median respondent to the desk surveys expected the three-month bill yield to increase slightly relative to the similar-maturity overnight index swap (ois) rate and to remain above it into the fourth quarter.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	909
many participants, including some of those who were focused on the increasing risks, expressed the view that continued solid improvement in the outlook for the labor market could prompt the committee to slow the pace of purchases beginning at some point over the next several meetings, while a few participants suggested that economic conditions would likely justify continuing the program at its current pace at least until late in the year.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	934
the sharp decline in oil prices weighed on inflation compensation and left a mixed imprint on other asset markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	402
the proposed changes were intended to allow the committee to obtain additional information about the potential usefulness of on rrp operations for affecting market interest rates when that step becomes appropriate.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	510
another area of uncertainty was the outlook for fiscal and trade policies.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	732
generally small changes in shipments and sales in the july-august period kept book-value inventory-sales ratios about flat at very low levels.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	26
although the rise in hourly compensation in the nonfarm business sector picked up slightly in the first quarter, the employment cost index decelerated further.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	39
they noted that doing so would allow more time to assess the financial and economic effects of recent banking-sector developments and of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	86
some members indicated that in light of continued robust economic growth, tight labor markets, and improving financial conditions they had a preference for awaiting further developments that might provide a stronger basis for an easing action.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	1,998	47
although payroll employment remained below its pre-pandemic level, the shortfall was concentrated in a few sectors and reflected a shortage of workers rather than insufficient demand for labor.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	807
both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio moved up slightly, and both measures had recovered only partially from their lows during the pandemic.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	957
the stock market's rise was viewed as somewhat puzzling, given indications of some slowing in the growth of profits and the potential for earnings disappointments as the expansion in spending moderated and profit margins narrowed in the context of more rapid labor cost increases.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	903
seasoned equity offerings in october and november were similar to the typical volumes observed in previous years, though equity raised through initial public offerings moderated somewhat from the robust rate of issuance in september.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	526
nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft decreased, on net, in february and march.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	933
in their discussion of current conditions and the economic outlook, meeting participants observed that incoming data over the intermeeting period hinted at possible upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,005	454
manufacturers added slightly to their stocks after two quarters of inventory liquidation.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	606
the rates of private-sector job openings and of hires increased over june and july, and the rate of quits was unchanged.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	941
the credit quality of municipal debt continued to be stable, as the number of bond upgrades outpaced downgrades, and defaults were relatively low.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	298
participants generally reported that their business contacts were optimistic about the economic outlook.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	702
consumer spending appeared to be increasing in the first quarter at a pace considerably faster, on balance, than in the fourth quarter of last year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	142
rates on jumbo loans came down as well, although the spread between the rates on jumbo and conforming loans was still wide and the market for private-label nonprime mbs remained impaired.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	273
participants noted disappointing readings on inflation over the first quarter and indicators pointing to strong economic momentum, and assessed that it would take longer than previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	943
a few added that continued gradual strengthening in labor markets would help return inflation to the committee's 2 percent objective.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	223
the external sector was projected to exert a small restraining influence on economic activity over the projection period, even though an anticipated firming of economic activity abroad would bolster demand for u.s. exports.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,996	154
the expansion in economic activity was expected to narrow the significant margin of slack in labor and product markets only slowly over the projection period, and the unemployment rate was anticipated to still be elevated at the end of 2014.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	103
in addition, retail investors evidently placed redemptions from equity and bond mutual funds into bank deposits and retail money market funds.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	724
in this context, the committee judged that some inflation risks remained and indicated that it would continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	369
the manager also provided an update on staff work related to potential arrangements that would allow depository institutions to pledge funds held in a segregated account at the federal reserve as collateral in borrowing transactions with private creditors and which could potentially provide an additional supplementary tool during policy normalization.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	502
while retail sales had slowed recently, the latest surveys indicated that consumer sentiment had risen further from an already markedly high level.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,997	44
while liquid deposits rose rapidly, small time deposits and retail money market mutual funds continued to contract.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	532
job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	106
the s&p 500 index rose about 1-1/2 percent over the intermeeting period, as earnings reports from a range of companies appeared to indicate that profits in the second quarter had increased modestly relative to the first quarter.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	558
announcements by foreign central banks garnered investor attention and contributed to somewhat higher asset price volatility later in the period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	259
and fourth, asset sales would be implemented within a framework that had been communicated to the public in advance, and at a pace that potentially could be adjusted in response to changes in economic or financial conditions.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	616
residential construction activity remained at a high level, evidently supported in part by recent declines in mortgage interest rates.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	114
the allotment limit was subsequently increased to $10 billion per counterparty in early april.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	795
committee policy action in their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members judged that information received since the fomc met in june indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising at a strong rate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	338
and canadian employment and sales data were strong in the fourth quarter, with the housing sector continuing to make a significant contribution to growth.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,004	155
beyond the near term, real gdp was expected to increase slightly faster than in the previous forecast, largely reflecting a somewhat higher projected trajectory for equity prices and lower assumed paths for both longer-term interest rates and the foreign exchange value of the dollar.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,016	186
contacts in many districts were said to be generally optimistic about business prospects.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	222
ten-year treasury yields also declined, but less than shorter-term yields.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	162
regarding inflation, members agreed to update the language in the statement to acknowledge that inflation had recently moved somewhat closer to the committee's longer-run objective and to convey their judgment that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent had diminished somewhat.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	862
particularly large increases were recorded in expenditures on durable goods, apparel, and general merchandise.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	87
the expansion of domestic nonfinancial debt increased in november and december (latest data), reflecting greater business borrowing, perhaps to finance growing inventories and smaller contractions in the amount of federal debt outstanding.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	569
participants also discussed the potential for clarifying or strengthening the committee's forward guidance for the federal funds rate.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	164
speeches by federal reserve officials, the minutes of the march meeting, and congressional testimony by the chairman combined to restrain policy expectations some.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,006	90
with the increase in the caps on redemptions to be implemented beginning in october, reinvestment of treasury securities would occur almost exclusively in the middle month of each quarter in connection with the treasury's midquarter refunding auctions.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	843
regarding asset purchases, participants judged that it would be appropriate over coming months for the federal reserve to increase its holdings of treasury securities and agency mbs at least at the current pace.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	945
nevertheless, many firms evidently remained slow to expand hiring, in part because of rising benefit costs.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	775
most long-term interest rates changed little over the intermeeting period, but treasury bond yields moved up slightly on balance, apparently in response to incoming data suggesting stronger-than-expected economic growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	762
more fundamentally, however, the income and wealth effects that were boosting household expenditures generally should help to sustain a perhaps somewhat diminished but still high level of homebuilding activity for a while, despite higher mortgage financing costs.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,000	354
with respect to the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators would strengthen somewhat further.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	748
subsequently, higher-than-expected inflation data, remarks by the chairman that were viewed as pointing to future rate increases, and the depreciation of the dollar all led market participants to price in a somewhat steeper path for future policy.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,004	29
they acknowledged that the timing and extent of a potential rise in inflation were subject to considerable uncertainty.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	1,999	840
motor vehicle purchases bounced back in late 2005 and early 2006 from the sluggish pace that followed the end of the past summer's employee pricing programs.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	544
the staff's forecast for inflation over the projection period was just a bit above the forecast prepared for the march fomc meeting, reflecting somewhat higher-than-expected data on core consumer prices and a slightly narrower margin of economic slack than in the march forecast.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	287
many participants noted that although the economic recovery had slowed recently and the august increase in payrolls had fallen short of expectations, the labor market had continued to show improvement since the committee's previous meeting.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	727
inflation had been subdued in recent months, there was little evidence of wage or cost pressures, and longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	703
in the multifamily sector, starts plunged in october to the slowest pace in almost six years.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	626
participants noted strong recent payroll growth, while the unemployment rate remained low.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	446
this assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	207
other members indicated that if the labor market appeared to be tightening significantly more than anticipated or if inflation pressures appeared to be developing more rapidly than expected as resource utilization tightened, it might become necessary to adjust the committee's communications about the expected path of the federal funds rate.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	466
given that the balance of risks was seen as pointing to rising inflation over time, the members agreed that it was desirable to retain the tilt toward restraint in the directive.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	1,998	605
policy expectations declined a bit more in the wake of the chairman’s semiannual monetary policy testimony, which apparently reinforced investors’ beliefs that the fomc anticipated gradually diminishing inflation pressures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,007	75
specifically, those members supported a program under which the committee would announce its intention to purchase, by the end of june 2012, $400 billion of treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	16
the decline in spending for other types of nonresidential buildings appeared to be slowing, and there were a few signs that financial conditions in commercial real estate markets, though still difficult, were stabilizing.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	428
the pace of bond issuance by nonfinancial firms increased further in october and november after rising robustly in the third quarter, as some firms reportedly sought to issue new debt before the end of the year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	98
investor sentiment was strongly influenced by prospects for europe, as market participants remained highly attuned to developments regarding possible steps to contain the fiscal and banking problems there.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	960
a couple of participants added that nonresidential construction activity was rising in their districts.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	485
some participants commented that trade policy developments remained a source of uncertainty for the outlook for domestic growth and inflation.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	538
but as suggested by the rise until recently in profit margins, businesses had been able to realize productivity gains that tended to offset the faster increases in compensation costs.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	572
there were no reported corporate defaults in april, and defaults were low in may.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	61
the u.s. trade deficit in goods and services widened significantly over the october-november period from its average for the third quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	689
in addition, participants reported hearing from contacts in a broad range of industries that shortages of materials and labor as well as supply chain challenges were limiting the ability of firms to keep up with demand.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	615
in furtherance of these objectives, the committee at its meeting in july reaffirmed the ranges it had established in january for growth of m2 and m3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 1996.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,996	976
on the upside, the recent strength in household spending raised the possibility that domestic final demand could snap back more rapidly than anticipated.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	260
moreover, because a policy action was not currently anticipated, some commented that a tightening could produce an outsized and undesirable response in financial markets.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	1,998	948
a straight read of ois (overnight index swap) forward rates implied that the federal funds rate would decline about 60 basis points in 2019 and about 35 basis points in 2020.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	518
industrial output strengthened for the fourth quarter as a whole, largely reflecting a surge in the production of motor vehicles and parts that more than offset sizable reductions in mining and utility output.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	779
at the same time, members noted that policy had already been eased by 75 basis points and that the effects of those actions on the real economy would be evident only with a lag.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	46
activity in the commercial real estate sector continued to be weak.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	527
since the committee met in november, the federal reserve's total assets were about unchanged, at nearly $2.2 trillion, as the increase in the system's holdings of securities roughly matched a further decline in usage of the system's credit and liquidity facilities.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	377
the available information from district business contacts was generally consistent with the recent trend in data on spending, although a couple of reports noted that households were spending cautiously and that some price discounting was likely.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	5
in their discussion of economic developments across the nation, a number of committee members noted some slippage in business and consumer confidence from the high levels reached late last year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	956
in light of the improved conditions, the staff proposed that the desk no longer be required to increase agency cmbs holdings or reinvest principal payments for agency cmbs.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	864
however, factory output has changed little on balance in recent months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,998	861
the committee currently does not anticipate selling agency mortgage-backed securities as part of the normalization process, although limited sales might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	48
conditions in unsecured short-term funding markets continued to improve over the intermeeting period, and spreads on most types of commercial paper and negotiable certificates of deposit narrowed to levels that approached pre-pandemic ranges.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	256

inflationary pressures remained subdued in most foreign economies amid substantial economic slack.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

134

a number of participants commented that the counterparties at such a facility should include depository institutions.

irrelevant

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

522

should market conditions appear to warrant the resumption of schedule 1 tslf or top auctions, the account manager is to consult with the chairman and, if possible, the board and the federal open market committee.

irrelevant

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

422

housing activity was improving, with sales and new construction trending higher.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

239

a concern in this regard was that the apparent upturn in final demand, particularly if it proved to be somewhat stronger than currently expected, and related business optimism about sales prospects might well result in a further buildup of inventories at a relatively rapid rate.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

1,997

996

business expenditures on nonresidential structures also were seen to be advancing robustly in a number of markets, possibly providing some offset to reduced residential construction activity.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,006

146

although the rate of job openings moved up in february, the hiring rate was flat and continued to be subdued.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

218

however, other participants anticipated that talf loans would increase over time as financial market institutions became more familiar with the program.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

290

in the committee's discussion of possible intermeeting adjustments to policy, all the members indicated at least some preference for retaining a symmetric directive.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,996

783

the drop in commercial real estate loans persisted, reflecting weak fundamentals that limited originations as well as charge-offs of existing loans.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

473

on the one hand, the participation rate for prime-age males remained significantly below its level before the financial crisis, suggesting that it could rise further over time.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

315

nevertheless, recent data on foreign industrial production and trade seemed to be stronger than private analysts had anticipated and were consistent with moderate economic growth abroad.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

815

the median respondent to the desk surveys expected the three-month bill yield to increase slightly relative to the similar-maturity overnight index swap (ois) rate and to remain above it into the fourth quarter.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

909

many participants, including some of those who were focused on the increasing risks, expressed the view that continued solid improvement in the outlook for the labor market could prompt the committee to slow the pace of purchases beginning at some point over the next several meetings, while a few participants suggested that economic conditions would likely justify continuing the program at its current pace at least until late in the year.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

934

the sharp decline in oil prices weighed on inflation compensation and left a mixed imprint on other asset markets.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

402

the proposed changes were intended to allow the committee to obtain additional information about the potential usefulness of on rrp operations for affecting market interest rates when that step becomes appropriate.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

510

another area of uncertainty was the outlook for fiscal and trade policies.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

732

generally small changes in shipments and sales in the july-august period kept book-value inventory-sales ratios about flat at very low levels.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,003

26

although the rise in hourly compensation in the nonfarm business sector picked up slightly in the first quarter, the employment cost index decelerated further.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

39

they noted that doing so would allow more time to assess the financial and economic effects of recent banking-sector developments and of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

86

some members indicated that in light of continued robust economic growth, tight labor markets, and improving financial conditions they had a preference for awaiting further developments that might provide a stronger basis for an easing action.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

1,998

47

although payroll employment remained below its pre-pandemic level, the shortfall was concentrated in a few sectors and reflected a shortage of workers rather than insufficient demand for labor.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

807

both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio moved up slightly, and both measures had recovered only partially from their lows during the pandemic.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

957

the stock market's rise was viewed as somewhat puzzling, given indications of some slowing in the growth of profits and the potential for earnings disappointments as the expansion in spending moderated and profit margins narrowed in the context of more rapid labor cost increases.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

903

seasoned equity offerings in october and november were similar to the typical volumes observed in previous years, though equity raised through initial public offerings moderated somewhat from the robust rate of issuance in september.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

526

nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft decreased, on net, in february and march.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

933

in their discussion of current conditions and the economic outlook, meeting participants observed that incoming data over the intermeeting period hinted at possible upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,005

454

manufacturers added slightly to their stocks after two quarters of inventory liquidation.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

606

the rates of private-sector job openings and of hires increased over june and july, and the rate of quits was unchanged.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

941

the credit quality of municipal debt continued to be stable, as the number of bond upgrades outpaced downgrades, and defaults were relatively low.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

298

participants generally reported that their business contacts were optimistic about the economic outlook.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

702

consumer spending appeared to be increasing in the first quarter at a pace considerably faster, on balance, than in the fourth quarter of last year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

142

rates on jumbo loans came down as well, although the spread between the rates on jumbo and conforming loans was still wide and the market for private-label nonprime mbs remained impaired.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

273

participants noted disappointing readings on inflation over the first quarter and indicators pointing to strong economic momentum, and assessed that it would take longer than previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

943

a few added that continued gradual strengthening in labor markets would help return inflation to the committee's 2 percent objective.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

223

the external sector was projected to exert a small restraining influence on economic activity over the projection period, even though an anticipated firming of economic activity abroad would bolster demand for u.s. exports.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,996

154

the expansion in economic activity was expected to narrow the significant margin of slack in labor and product markets only slowly over the projection period, and the unemployment rate was anticipated to still be elevated at the end of 2014.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

103

in addition, retail investors evidently placed redemptions from equity and bond mutual funds into bank deposits and retail money market funds.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

724

in this context, the committee judged that some inflation risks remained and indicated that it would continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

369

the manager also provided an update on staff work related to potential arrangements that would allow depository institutions to pledge funds held in a segregated account at the federal reserve as collateral in borrowing transactions with private creditors and which could potentially provide an additional supplementary tool during policy normalization.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

502

while retail sales had slowed recently, the latest surveys indicated that consumer sentiment had risen further from an already markedly high level.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,997

44

while liquid deposits rose rapidly, small time deposits and retail money market mutual funds continued to contract.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

532

job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

106

the s&p 500 index rose about 1-1/2 percent over the intermeeting period, as earnings reports from a range of companies appeared to indicate that profits in the second quarter had increased modestly relative to the first quarter.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

558

announcements by foreign central banks garnered investor attention and contributed to somewhat higher asset price volatility later in the period.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

259

and fourth, asset sales would be implemented within a framework that had been communicated to the public in advance, and at a pace that potentially could be adjusted in response to changes in economic or financial conditions.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

616

residential construction activity remained at a high level, evidently supported in part by recent declines in mortgage interest rates.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

114

the allotment limit was subsequently increased to $10 billion per counterparty in early april.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

795

committee policy action in their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members judged that information received since the fomc met in june indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising at a strong rate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

338

and canadian employment and sales data were strong in the fourth quarter, with the housing sector continuing to make a significant contribution to growth.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,004

155

beyond the near term, real gdp was expected to increase slightly faster than in the previous forecast, largely reflecting a somewhat higher projected trajectory for equity prices and lower assumed paths for both longer-term interest rates and the foreign exchange value of the dollar.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,016

186

contacts in many districts were said to be generally optimistic about business prospects.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

222

ten-year treasury yields also declined, but less than shorter-term yields.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

162

regarding inflation, members agreed to update the language in the statement to acknowledge that inflation had recently moved somewhat closer to the committee's longer-run objective and to convey their judgment that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent had diminished somewhat.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

862

particularly large increases were recorded in expenditures on durable goods, apparel, and general merchandise.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

87

the expansion of domestic nonfinancial debt increased in november and december (latest data), reflecting greater business borrowing, perhaps to finance growing inventories and smaller contractions in the amount of federal debt outstanding.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

569

participants also discussed the potential for clarifying or strengthening the committee's forward guidance for the federal funds rate.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

164

speeches by federal reserve officials, the minutes of the march meeting, and congressional testimony by the chairman combined to restrain policy expectations some.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,006

90

with the increase in the caps on redemptions to be implemented beginning in october, reinvestment of treasury securities would occur almost exclusively in the middle month of each quarter in connection with the treasury's midquarter refunding auctions.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

843

regarding asset purchases, participants judged that it would be appropriate over coming months for the federal reserve to increase its holdings of treasury securities and agency mbs at least at the current pace.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

945

nevertheless, many firms evidently remained slow to expand hiring, in part because of rising benefit costs.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

775

most long-term interest rates changed little over the intermeeting period, but treasury bond yields moved up slightly on balance, apparently in response to incoming data suggesting stronger-than-expected economic growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

762

more fundamentally, however, the income and wealth effects that were boosting household expenditures generally should help to sustain a perhaps somewhat diminished but still high level of homebuilding activity for a while, despite higher mortgage financing costs.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,000

354

with respect to the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators would strengthen somewhat further.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

748

subsequently, higher-than-expected inflation data, remarks by the chairman that were viewed as pointing to future rate increases, and the depreciation of the dollar all led market participants to price in a somewhat steeper path for future policy.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,004

29

they acknowledged that the timing and extent of a potential rise in inflation were subject to considerable uncertainty.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

1,999

840

motor vehicle purchases bounced back in late 2005 and early 2006 from the sluggish pace that followed the end of the past summer's employee pricing programs.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

544

the staff's forecast for inflation over the projection period was just a bit above the forecast prepared for the march fomc meeting, reflecting somewhat higher-than-expected data on core consumer prices and a slightly narrower margin of economic slack than in the march forecast.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

287

many participants noted that although the economic recovery had slowed recently and the august increase in payrolls had fallen short of expectations, the labor market had continued to show improvement since the committee's previous meeting.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

727

inflation had been subdued in recent months, there was little evidence of wage or cost pressures, and longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

703

in the multifamily sector, starts plunged in october to the slowest pace in almost six years.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

626

participants noted strong recent payroll growth, while the unemployment rate remained low.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

446

this assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

207

other members indicated that if the labor market appeared to be tightening significantly more than anticipated or if inflation pressures appeared to be developing more rapidly than expected as resource utilization tightened, it might become necessary to adjust the committee's communications about the expected path of the federal funds rate.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

466

given that the balance of risks was seen as pointing to rising inflation over time, the members agreed that it was desirable to retain the tilt toward restraint in the directive.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

1,998

605

policy expectations declined a bit more in the wake of the chairman’s semiannual monetary policy testimony, which apparently reinforced investors’ beliefs that the fomc anticipated gradually diminishing inflation pressures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,007

75

specifically, those members supported a program under which the committee would announce its intention to purchase, by the end of june 2012, $400 billion of treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

16

the decline in spending for other types of nonresidential buildings appeared to be slowing, and there were a few signs that financial conditions in commercial real estate markets, though still difficult, were stabilizing.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

428

the pace of bond issuance by nonfinancial firms increased further in october and november after rising robustly in the third quarter, as some firms reportedly sought to issue new debt before the end of the year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

98

investor sentiment was strongly influenced by prospects for europe, as market participants remained highly attuned to developments regarding possible steps to contain the fiscal and banking problems there.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

960

a couple of participants added that nonresidential construction activity was rising in their districts.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

485

some participants commented that trade policy developments remained a source of uncertainty for the outlook for domestic growth and inflation.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

538

but as suggested by the rise until recently in profit margins, businesses had been able to realize productivity gains that tended to offset the faster increases in compensation costs.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

572

there were no reported corporate defaults in april, and defaults were low in may.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

61

the u.s. trade deficit in goods and services widened significantly over the october-november period from its average for the third quarter.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

689

in addition, participants reported hearing from contacts in a broad range of industries that shortages of materials and labor as well as supply chain challenges were limiting the ability of firms to keep up with demand.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

615

in furtherance of these objectives, the committee at its meeting in july reaffirmed the ranges it had established in january for growth of m2 and m3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 1996.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,996

976

on the upside, the recent strength in household spending raised the possibility that domestic final demand could snap back more rapidly than anticipated.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

260

moreover, because a policy action was not currently anticipated, some commented that a tightening could produce an outsized and undesirable response in financial markets.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

1,998

948

a straight read of ois (overnight index swap) forward rates implied that the federal funds rate would decline about 60 basis points in 2019 and about 35 basis points in 2020.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

518

industrial output strengthened for the fourth quarter as a whole, largely reflecting a surge in the production of motor vehicles and parts that more than offset sizable reductions in mining and utility output.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

779

at the same time, members noted that policy had already been eased by 75 basis points and that the effects of those actions on the real economy would be evident only with a lag.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

46

activity in the commercial real estate sector continued to be weak.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

527

since the committee met in november, the federal reserve's total assets were about unchanged, at nearly $2.2 trillion, as the increase in the system's holdings of securities roughly matched a further decline in usage of the system's credit and liquidity facilities.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

377

the available information from district business contacts was generally consistent with the recent trend in data on spending, although a couple of reports noted that households were spending cautiously and that some price discounting was likely.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

5

in their discussion of economic developments across the nation, a number of committee members noted some slippage in business and consumer confidence from the high levels reached late last year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

956

in light of the improved conditions, the staff proposed that the desk no longer be required to increase agency cmbs holdings or reinvest principal payments for agency cmbs.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

864

however, factory output has changed little on balance in recent months.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,998

861

the committee currently does not anticipate selling agency mortgage-backed securities as part of the normalization process, although limited sales might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

48

conditions in unsecured short-term funding markets continued to improve over the intermeeting period, and spreads on most types of commercial paper and negotiable certificates of deposit narrowed to levels that approached pre-pandemic ranges.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

256