gtfintechlab/european_central_bank · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 25 506	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.02k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
this tightening was significantly less pronounced than the tightening seen at the time of the financial and sovereign debt crises between 2008 and 2012, which was a sign that the ecb’s measures (together with the announcement in many countries of public credit guarantees and other support for firms and households) had so far largely protected bank-based credit flows.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	549
with regard to fiscal policies, the euro area fiscal stance, as measured by the change in the cyclically adjusted primary balance, was expected to be mildly expansionary in 2016 and turn broadly neutral in 2017 and 2018.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	476
sovereign bond yields in the euro area had already approached rather low levels, limiting the scope for further yield compression and, consequently, the potential funding cost relief to be passed on to final borrowers’ financing conditions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	663
if, by contrast, inflation declined sharply throughout 2022 from its current high rates, this would provide reassurance on the inflation outlook.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	820
however, in march 2022 household expectations regarding unemployment had increased visibly, albeit much less than at the start of the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	736
looking ahead, additional information, including more hard data releases, new staff projections and news on fiscal measures, would become available by september.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	867
overall, the incoming data confirmed the previous baseline assessment of a pronounced near-term impact of the pandemic on the economy and a protracted weakness in inflation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	32
there were many other reasons why monetary policy was still working its way through the economy, with research suggesting that there could be years of lagged effects before the full impact dissipated completely.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	990
global corporate bond markets had experienced some broad-based repricing.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	676
the baseline scenario of a rebound in growth in the second half of the year remained broadly intact, while the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remained tilted to the downside.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	234
the services sector was growing more strongly, owing to the reopening of the economy.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	833
a further weakening of demand would also contribute to lower price pressures than currently anticipated, especially over the medium term.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	892
while longer-term survey-based inflation expectations in the ecb survey of professional forecasters for the second quarter of 2019 had been unchanged at 1.8%, the market-based measure of the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead had declined further since the governing council’s march 2019 monetary policy meeting, to stand at 1.4%.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	472
the most recent indicators suggested that gdp growth had broadly stagnated in the third quarter of the year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	201
in response to the discovery of omicron, stock markets worldwide had suffered marked losses.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	745
the endorsement by the european council of the eurogroup agreement on the three safety nets for workers, businesses and sovereigns, amounting to a package worth €540 billion, was welcomed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	678
as wage developments in the euro area were accelerating, second-round effects through higher wages appeared to be starting to materialise.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	959
developments in equity markets had been mainly dominated by the negotiations with greece.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	710
however, while the average of point forecasts was stable, the survey of professional forecasters also provided a probability distribution around the point forecasts which remained tilted to the downside.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	159
this was more than the cuts embedded in market pricing, but one cut less than survey participants had expected before the governing council’s previous monetary policy meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	368
against this background, members assessed that there were both upside and downside risks to inflation.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	185
at the same time, it was argued that lockdowns in china had led to declines in the country’s imports of liquified natural gas, with dampening effects on gas prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	728
at the same time, it was observed that broader measures of the degree of slack remained elevated.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	735
at the same time, domestic inflation was stubbornly high and longer-run inflation projections still seemed to be above the governing council’s target.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	492
the april 2016 bank lending survey for the euro area pointed to improving loan supply conditions for enterprises and improving loan demand across all loan categories.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	505
however, the turbulence in equity markets had not generated a more general sell-off of other risk assets.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	168
market-based measures of long-term inflation compensation had declined from their decade-high level recorded in april but had started to rise again lately and remained above 2%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	38
the latest round of the commission’s household survey suggested that euro area households had revised their expectations on consumer prices 12-months ahead sharply downwards and their expectations on the economic situation upwards.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	101
the eurosystem nevertheless continued to smoothly execute the expanded asset purchase programme (app), in line with the announced moderate frontloading of purchases.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	233
the peltros would consist of seven additional refinancing operations commencing in may 2020 and maturing in a staggered sequence between july 2021 and september 2021 in line with the duration of the collateral easing measures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	266
however, growth could be higher than projected if the strong labour market and receding uncertainty meant people and businesses became more confident and spent more.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	470
it needed to be stressed that reinvestments would be conducted for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	688
one possible implication was that it might be necessary to acknowledge the longer time horizon over which monetary policy could be expected to deliver on its ultimate objective in the current environment, which did not necessarily speak in favour of additional measures at the current juncture.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	707
in this environment, monetary policy needed to remain highly expansionary.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	278
the extension of the slower growth momentum had, in part, already been anticipated in the march 2019 ecb staff projections, but it was also acknowledged that some recent data had turned out even weaker than expected.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	570
while the pull-back in euro area growth in the first half of the year could largely be attributed to weaker external demand, after exceptionally strong external trade in 2017, the point was made that the moderation in annual rates of growth over the projection horizon reflected convergence towards growth in line with potential.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	670
however, firms’ expectations had remained contained for retail trade, while they continued to be above historical averages for contact-intensive services.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	675
the average number of hours worked had also increased, although it was still somewhat below its pre-pandemic level.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	144
moreover, the improvement in the citigroup surprise indicator was mainly related to confidence indicators, while the real economy remained weak and the improvement in hard data had been negligible.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	918
the solution to the energy problem was seen as mainly of a structural nature.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	141
doubts were expressed as to whether, at the current juncture, relaxations on the supply side would be sufficient, and it was argued that a reduction in inflation would need to be driven mostly by a lower contribution from the demand component.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	263
whereas private consumption had been very strong in the second and third quarters of 2022 as a result of the reopening of the euro area economy, the significant drop in the fourth quarter of 2022 reflected low confidence and the earlier terms-of-trade shock adversely affecting spending decisions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	128
however, the point was made that some moderation in growth was naturally to be expected, in line with the experience of other reopening economies.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	607
all components of financial conditions indices had loosened over the course of 2019, namely short-term and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and equity prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	108
it was recalled that the ecb monitored a wide array of measures of underlying inflation and undertook a detailed analysis of all components of headline inflation, rather than looking exclusively at particular measures of core inflation excluding several volatile items.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	105
given the current projections and the high degree of uncertainty, a larger, pre-emptive initial increment ran the risk of triggering excessive adjustments in market interest rates.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	35
second, the conflict in the middle east had resulted in rising freight costs and a lengthening of delivery times owing to the recent attacks on freight ships in the red sea and the gulf of aden.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	839
risks to the growth outlook could now be considered to be broadly balanced, supporting confidence that the economic expansion was on a stronger footing.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	537
with regard to the euro area economy, members widely noted that the medium-term outlook discussed during the previous governing council meeting and entailed in the june 2024 eurosystem staff projections had not changed overall.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	495
these prices reflected a number of economic and geopolitical factors affecting the balance of demand and supply, as well as types of shock that could not have been foreseen.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	979
however, it was also pointed out that bank lending rates for firms and households had so far remained broadly insulated from the increases in market rates, and credit conditions did not currently signal lending constraints for the non-financial sector.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	271
the view was expressed that fiscal initiatives to address non-performing loans and ensure an adequately capitalised banking sector should be encouraged, while monetary policy was playing its part in supporting favourable financing conditions and ample liquidity in the banking sector.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	8
with regard to the economic analysis, there was broad agreement among the members with the assessment of the outlook and risks for economic activity in the euro area, as provided by mr praet in his introduction.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	737
turning to the euro area, real gdp growth in the second quarter of 2019 had been confirmed at 0.2% in eurostat’s third release.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	523
at the same time, it was recalled that market-based inflation measures contained an inflation risk premium, which had turned positive.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	968
however, it was also recalled that, before 2011, minimum reserves were remunerated at the mro rate.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,023	279
turning to the euro area, the more restrictive and extended lockdowns were weighing on the short-term growth outlook.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	853
it was also very important to look at the labour market, where the december projections were returning to the pre-pandemic path.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	899
taking into account the views expressed by the governing council, the president concluded that it remained premature to judge whether recent developments would have a lasting impact on the medium-term outlook for price stability.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	282
primary issuance in the asset-backed securities (abs) market had also picked up, although not on the same scale as the cspp market.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	758
the overriding theme in euro area and global financial markets had been the continued rise in longer-term risk-free interest rates and sovereign bond yields.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	375
downside risks related mainly to remaining uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the external environment.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	937
at the same time, it was underlined that, to assess the favourability of financing conditions, it was necessary to understand the underlying drivers of the rise in risk-free rates.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	92
questions were raised as to how realistic it was to assume that containment measures would be reduced as early as the second quarter and it was pointed out that, depending on the further evolution of the pandemic, weakness in activity might continue well into the second quarter and beyond.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	371
according to the june eurosystem staff projections, hicp inflation was expected to rebound from 0.2% in 2016 to 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018, broadly in line with recent forecasts from other international institutions and the private sector, including the oecd forecasts for the euro area, which had just been released.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,016	190
the recent eurogroup statement on the euro area fiscal stance was consistent with this assessment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	546
moreover, it was noted that – in contrast to consumption – investment remained very weak and had again disappointed recently, with the december projections showing a downward revision.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	804
this amount might also change over time, reflecting changes in market interest rates relative to the dfr.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	325
however, it was recalled that wages were a lagging indicator, and some doubts were expressed as to whether the still comforting picture provided by the experimental ecb wage tracker would hold up.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	568
it was recalled that labour markets had improved further, with around seven million jobs created in the euro area since the start of the recovery.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	404
consumers continued to be confident and their spending remained strong.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	352
bank lending rates remained on a declining trend amid monthly volatility.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	866
however, the governing council should continue to monitor carefully the bank-based transmission channel of monetary policy and the case for mitigating measures.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	208
in the context of weaker chinese domestic demand, it was argued that chinese exports would put additional negative pressure on international prices.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	679
the latest eurosystem staff projections also pointed to a solid and broad-based economic expansion, at a somewhat faster pace than previously expected.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	145
in particular, a possible downward drift in inflation expectations could prove difficult to reverse and a lack of policy action at the current meeting could instil doubts about the governing council’s determination to implement the app until a sustainable adjustment in the path of inflation was achieved.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	567
growth could be higher if inflation came down more quickly than expected, if rising real incomes meant that spending increased by more than anticipated, or if the world economy grew more strongly than expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	793
in foreign exchange markets, a persistent and broad strengthening of the euro since the december monetary policy meeting prevailed.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	6
overall, however, it was important to highlight that the conditions remained in place for inflation to move sustainably towards the governing council’s medium-term inflation aim.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	329
the swift and effective implementation of structural reforms, in an environment of accommodative monetary policy, would not only lead to higher sustainable economic growth in the euro area but would also raise expectations of permanently higher incomes and accelerate the benefits of reforms, thereby making the euro area more resilient to global shocks.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	857
it was also remarked that the governing council’s assessment had been evolving over a number of monetary policy meetings.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	653
as regards communication, members widely agreed on the need to emphasise that, in view of the prevailing outlook for price stability and the surrounding risks, the extension of the app was warranted to fulfil the governing council’s price stability objective.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	612
indices of broad financial conditions covering movements in euro area government bond, stock and foreign exchange markets had tightened and euro area stock prices, in particular for financial sector equities, had declined sharply, in an environment of increased global uncertainty.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	104
nevertheless, it was stressed that, in order to produce an upward shift in market expectations as regards the future path of interest rates, strong communication was required that highlighted three elements, namely that interest rates would still have to increase significantly, that they would be raised into restrictive territory, and that they would remain there for longer than the market currently expected.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	21
economic agents had apparently learned to adapt to such restrictions, for instance by adjusting their consumption patterns, and the economy had demonstrated a strong capacity to bounce back rather quickly.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	517
long-term risk-free rates and gdp-weighted sovereign bond yields had increased somewhat further since the march governing council monetary policy meeting and stood above their pre-pandemic levels.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	514
with us inflation having repeatedly surprised on the upside since the federal reserve’s pivot in december 2023, market pricing in the united states had also gradually shifted towards fewer and later rate cuts in 2024.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	69
with regard to structural reforms, continued progress was seen as important to strengthen potential growth and encourage private investment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	165
commentators associated these developments with an increase in the uncertainty about the outcome of the 23 june referendum on uk membership of the european union.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	301
since the governing council’s last monetary policy meeting on 11-12 september 2019, the prospect of a breakthrough in the trade negotiations between the united states and china, as well as declining fears of a “no-deal” brexit, had helped to underpin global market sentiment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	648
it was recalled that the dichotomy between manufacturing and services was in line with historical patterns whereby monetary policy affected services with a longer lag.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	66
member states were called upon to ensure a timely ratification of the own resources decision, to finalise their recovery and resilience plans promptly and to deploy the funds for productive public spending, accompanied by productivity-enhancing structural policies.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	680
a remark was made that a gap appeared to be emerging between favourable economic conditions and a policy stance that remained in a crisis configuration.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	900
broad agreement was expressed among members to maintain the forward guidance on interest rates unchanged, as proposed by mr praet in his introduction.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	450
likewise, there was a risk that, in some countries and sectors, union bargaining might go beyond a one-off “catch-up” of real wages with respect to pre-pandemic levels and try to make up for the trend decline in the wage share incurred during past decades.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	68
implementation of the asset purchase programme had proceeded smoothly, notwithstanding market reports of emerging scarcity in some market segments.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	700
as regards long-term inflation expectations in the euro area, both survey and market-based measures had moved up slightly.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,015	483
overall, wage pressures remained low and quite heterogenous across countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	729
while fiscal policy was expected to be expansionary in 2021 and 2022, members considered that the prospects for 2023 were more uncertain.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	734
the latest eurostat release showed that the rate of increase in compensation per employee had declined by 0.3 percentage points to stand at 5.2% in the third quarter, with the contribution of unit profits to the gdp deflator also falling substantially.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	58

this tightening was significantly less pronounced than the tightening seen at the time of the financial and sovereign debt crises between 2008 and 2012, which was a sign that the ecb’s measures (together with the announcement in many countries of public credit guarantees and other support for firms and households) had so far largely protected bank-based credit flows.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

549

with regard to fiscal policies, the euro area fiscal stance, as measured by the change in the cyclically adjusted primary balance, was expected to be mildly expansionary in 2016 and turn broadly neutral in 2017 and 2018.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

476

sovereign bond yields in the euro area had already approached rather low levels, limiting the scope for further yield compression and, consequently, the potential funding cost relief to be passed on to final borrowers’ financing conditions.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

663

if, by contrast, inflation declined sharply throughout 2022 from its current high rates, this would provide reassurance on the inflation outlook.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

820

however, in march 2022 household expectations regarding unemployment had increased visibly, albeit much less than at the start of the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

736

looking ahead, additional information, including more hard data releases, new staff projections and news on fiscal measures, would become available by september.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

867

overall, the incoming data confirmed the previous baseline assessment of a pronounced near-term impact of the pandemic on the economy and a protracted weakness in inflation.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

32

there were many other reasons why monetary policy was still working its way through the economy, with research suggesting that there could be years of lagged effects before the full impact dissipated completely.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

990

global corporate bond markets had experienced some broad-based repricing.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

676

the baseline scenario of a rebound in growth in the second half of the year remained broadly intact, while the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remained tilted to the downside.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

234

the services sector was growing more strongly, owing to the reopening of the economy.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

833

a further weakening of demand would also contribute to lower price pressures than currently anticipated, especially over the medium term.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

892

while longer-term survey-based inflation expectations in the ecb survey of professional forecasters for the second quarter of 2019 had been unchanged at 1.8%, the market-based measure of the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead had declined further since the governing council’s march 2019 monetary policy meeting, to stand at 1.4%.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

472

the most recent indicators suggested that gdp growth had broadly stagnated in the third quarter of the year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

201

in response to the discovery of omicron, stock markets worldwide had suffered marked losses.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

745

the endorsement by the european council of the eurogroup agreement on the three safety nets for workers, businesses and sovereigns, amounting to a package worth €540 billion, was welcomed.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

678

as wage developments in the euro area were accelerating, second-round effects through higher wages appeared to be starting to materialise.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

959

developments in equity markets had been mainly dominated by the negotiations with greece.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

710

however, while the average of point forecasts was stable, the survey of professional forecasters also provided a probability distribution around the point forecasts which remained tilted to the downside.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

159

this was more than the cuts embedded in market pricing, but one cut less than survey participants had expected before the governing council’s previous monetary policy meeting.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

368

against this background, members assessed that there were both upside and downside risks to inflation.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

185

at the same time, it was argued that lockdowns in china had led to declines in the country’s imports of liquified natural gas, with dampening effects on gas prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

728

at the same time, it was observed that broader measures of the degree of slack remained elevated.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

735

at the same time, domestic inflation was stubbornly high and longer-run inflation projections still seemed to be above the governing council’s target.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

492

the april 2016 bank lending survey for the euro area pointed to improving loan supply conditions for enterprises and improving loan demand across all loan categories.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

505

however, the turbulence in equity markets had not generated a more general sell-off of other risk assets.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

168

market-based measures of long-term inflation compensation had declined from their decade-high level recorded in april but had started to rise again lately and remained above 2%.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

38

the latest round of the commission’s household survey suggested that euro area households had revised their expectations on consumer prices 12-months ahead sharply downwards and their expectations on the economic situation upwards.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

101

the eurosystem nevertheless continued to smoothly execute the expanded asset purchase programme (app), in line with the announced moderate frontloading of purchases.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

233

the peltros would consist of seven additional refinancing operations commencing in may 2020 and maturing in a staggered sequence between july 2021 and september 2021 in line with the duration of the collateral easing measures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

266

however, growth could be higher than projected if the strong labour market and receding uncertainty meant people and businesses became more confident and spent more.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

470

it needed to be stressed that reinvestments would be conducted for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

688

one possible implication was that it might be necessary to acknowledge the longer time horizon over which monetary policy could be expected to deliver on its ultimate objective in the current environment, which did not necessarily speak in favour of additional measures at the current juncture.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

707

in this environment, monetary policy needed to remain highly expansionary.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

278

the extension of the slower growth momentum had, in part, already been anticipated in the march 2019 ecb staff projections, but it was also acknowledged that some recent data had turned out even weaker than expected.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

570

while the pull-back in euro area growth in the first half of the year could largely be attributed to weaker external demand, after exceptionally strong external trade in 2017, the point was made that the moderation in annual rates of growth over the projection horizon reflected convergence towards growth in line with potential.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

670

however, firms’ expectations had remained contained for retail trade, while they continued to be above historical averages for contact-intensive services.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

675

the average number of hours worked had also increased, although it was still somewhat below its pre-pandemic level.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

144

moreover, the improvement in the citigroup surprise indicator was mainly related to confidence indicators, while the real economy remained weak and the improvement in hard data had been negligible.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

918

the solution to the energy problem was seen as mainly of a structural nature.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

141

doubts were expressed as to whether, at the current juncture, relaxations on the supply side would be sufficient, and it was argued that a reduction in inflation would need to be driven mostly by a lower contribution from the demand component.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

263

whereas private consumption had been very strong in the second and third quarters of 2022 as a result of the reopening of the euro area economy, the significant drop in the fourth quarter of 2022 reflected low confidence and the earlier terms-of-trade shock adversely affecting spending decisions.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

128

however, the point was made that some moderation in growth was naturally to be expected, in line with the experience of other reopening economies.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

607

all components of financial conditions indices had loosened over the course of 2019, namely short-term and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and equity prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

108

it was recalled that the ecb monitored a wide array of measures of underlying inflation and undertook a detailed analysis of all components of headline inflation, rather than looking exclusively at particular measures of core inflation excluding several volatile items.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

105

given the current projections and the high degree of uncertainty, a larger, pre-emptive initial increment ran the risk of triggering excessive adjustments in market interest rates.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

35

second, the conflict in the middle east had resulted in rising freight costs and a lengthening of delivery times owing to the recent attacks on freight ships in the red sea and the gulf of aden.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

839

risks to the growth outlook could now be considered to be broadly balanced, supporting confidence that the economic expansion was on a stronger footing.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

537

with regard to the euro area economy, members widely noted that the medium-term outlook discussed during the previous governing council meeting and entailed in the june 2024 eurosystem staff projections had not changed overall.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

495

these prices reflected a number of economic and geopolitical factors affecting the balance of demand and supply, as well as types of shock that could not have been foreseen.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

979

however, it was also pointed out that bank lending rates for firms and households had so far remained broadly insulated from the increases in market rates, and credit conditions did not currently signal lending constraints for the non-financial sector.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

271

the view was expressed that fiscal initiatives to address non-performing loans and ensure an adequately capitalised banking sector should be encouraged, while monetary policy was playing its part in supporting favourable financing conditions and ample liquidity in the banking sector.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

8

with regard to the economic analysis, there was broad agreement among the members with the assessment of the outlook and risks for economic activity in the euro area, as provided by mr praet in his introduction.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

737

turning to the euro area, real gdp growth in the second quarter of 2019 had been confirmed at 0.2% in eurostat’s third release.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

523

at the same time, it was recalled that market-based inflation measures contained an inflation risk premium, which had turned positive.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

968

however, it was also recalled that, before 2011, minimum reserves were remunerated at the mro rate.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,023

279

turning to the euro area, the more restrictive and extended lockdowns were weighing on the short-term growth outlook.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

853

it was also very important to look at the labour market, where the december projections were returning to the pre-pandemic path.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

899

taking into account the views expressed by the governing council, the president concluded that it remained premature to judge whether recent developments would have a lasting impact on the medium-term outlook for price stability.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

282

primary issuance in the asset-backed securities (abs) market had also picked up, although not on the same scale as the cspp market.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

758

the overriding theme in euro area and global financial markets had been the continued rise in longer-term risk-free interest rates and sovereign bond yields.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

375

downside risks related mainly to remaining uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the external environment.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

937

at the same time, it was underlined that, to assess the favourability of financing conditions, it was necessary to understand the underlying drivers of the rise in risk-free rates.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

92

questions were raised as to how realistic it was to assume that containment measures would be reduced as early as the second quarter and it was pointed out that, depending on the further evolution of the pandemic, weakness in activity might continue well into the second quarter and beyond.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

371

according to the june eurosystem staff projections, hicp inflation was expected to rebound from 0.2% in 2016 to 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018, broadly in line with recent forecasts from other international institutions and the private sector, including the oecd forecasts for the euro area, which had just been released.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,016

190

the recent eurogroup statement on the euro area fiscal stance was consistent with this assessment.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

546

moreover, it was noted that – in contrast to consumption – investment remained very weak and had again disappointed recently, with the december projections showing a downward revision.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

804

this amount might also change over time, reflecting changes in market interest rates relative to the dfr.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

325

however, it was recalled that wages were a lagging indicator, and some doubts were expressed as to whether the still comforting picture provided by the experimental ecb wage tracker would hold up.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

568

it was recalled that labour markets had improved further, with around seven million jobs created in the euro area since the start of the recovery.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

404

consumers continued to be confident and their spending remained strong.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

352

bank lending rates remained on a declining trend amid monthly volatility.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

866

however, the governing council should continue to monitor carefully the bank-based transmission channel of monetary policy and the case for mitigating measures.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

208

in the context of weaker chinese domestic demand, it was argued that chinese exports would put additional negative pressure on international prices.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

679

the latest eurosystem staff projections also pointed to a solid and broad-based economic expansion, at a somewhat faster pace than previously expected.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

145

in particular, a possible downward drift in inflation expectations could prove difficult to reverse and a lack of policy action at the current meeting could instil doubts about the governing council’s determination to implement the app until a sustainable adjustment in the path of inflation was achieved.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

567

growth could be higher if inflation came down more quickly than expected, if rising real incomes meant that spending increased by more than anticipated, or if the world economy grew more strongly than expected.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

793

in foreign exchange markets, a persistent and broad strengthening of the euro since the december monetary policy meeting prevailed.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

6

overall, however, it was important to highlight that the conditions remained in place for inflation to move sustainably towards the governing council’s medium-term inflation aim.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

329

the swift and effective implementation of structural reforms, in an environment of accommodative monetary policy, would not only lead to higher sustainable economic growth in the euro area but would also raise expectations of permanently higher incomes and accelerate the benefits of reforms, thereby making the euro area more resilient to global shocks.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

857

it was also remarked that the governing council’s assessment had been evolving over a number of monetary policy meetings.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

653

as regards communication, members widely agreed on the need to emphasise that, in view of the prevailing outlook for price stability and the surrounding risks, the extension of the app was warranted to fulfil the governing council’s price stability objective.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

612

indices of broad financial conditions covering movements in euro area government bond, stock and foreign exchange markets had tightened and euro area stock prices, in particular for financial sector equities, had declined sharply, in an environment of increased global uncertainty.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

104

nevertheless, it was stressed that, in order to produce an upward shift in market expectations as regards the future path of interest rates, strong communication was required that highlighted three elements, namely that interest rates would still have to increase significantly, that they would be raised into restrictive territory, and that they would remain there for longer than the market currently expected.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

21

economic agents had apparently learned to adapt to such restrictions, for instance by adjusting their consumption patterns, and the economy had demonstrated a strong capacity to bounce back rather quickly.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

517

long-term risk-free rates and gdp-weighted sovereign bond yields had increased somewhat further since the march governing council monetary policy meeting and stood above their pre-pandemic levels.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

514

with us inflation having repeatedly surprised on the upside since the federal reserve’s pivot in december 2023, market pricing in the united states had also gradually shifted towards fewer and later rate cuts in 2024.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

69

with regard to structural reforms, continued progress was seen as important to strengthen potential growth and encourage private investment.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

165

commentators associated these developments with an increase in the uncertainty about the outcome of the 23 june referendum on uk membership of the european union.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

301

since the governing council’s last monetary policy meeting on 11-12 september 2019, the prospect of a breakthrough in the trade negotiations between the united states and china, as well as declining fears of a “no-deal” brexit, had helped to underpin global market sentiment.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

648

it was recalled that the dichotomy between manufacturing and services was in line with historical patterns whereby monetary policy affected services with a longer lag.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

66

member states were called upon to ensure a timely ratification of the own resources decision, to finalise their recovery and resilience plans promptly and to deploy the funds for productive public spending, accompanied by productivity-enhancing structural policies.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

680

a remark was made that a gap appeared to be emerging between favourable economic conditions and a policy stance that remained in a crisis configuration.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

900

broad agreement was expressed among members to maintain the forward guidance on interest rates unchanged, as proposed by mr praet in his introduction.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

450

likewise, there was a risk that, in some countries and sectors, union bargaining might go beyond a one-off “catch-up” of real wages with respect to pre-pandemic levels and try to make up for the trend decline in the wage share incurred during past decades.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

68

implementation of the asset purchase programme had proceeded smoothly, notwithstanding market reports of emerging scarcity in some market segments.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

700

as regards long-term inflation expectations in the euro area, both survey and market-based measures had moved up slightly.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,015

483

overall, wage pressures remained low and quite heterogenous across countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

729

while fiscal policy was expected to be expansionary in 2021 and 2022, members considered that the prospects for 2023 were more uncertain.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

734

the latest eurostat release showed that the rate of increase in compensation per employee had declined by 0.3 percentage points to stand at 5.2% in the third quarter, with the contribution of unit profits to the gdp deflator also falling substantially.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

58