Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
european_central_bank

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
sentences
stringlengths
25
506
stance_label
stringclasses
4 values
time_label
stringclasses
2 values
certain_label
stringclasses
2 values
year
int64
2.02k
2.02k
__index_level_0__
int64
1
999
first, volatility in interest rate markets remained at historically high levels, reflecting very high uncertainty regarding inflation, as well as heightened data dependence of monetary policy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
157
its previous appreciation was still adversely affecting euro area trade.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
269
at the time of the meeting, the euro was still down against the us dollar by more than 6% compared with a year ago and was trading close to its 2019 average.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
336
the point was also made that the june projections did not take into account the commission’s recovery fund proposal or recently announced national fiscal measures, which could entail an upside risk to the economic outlook contained in the staff projections.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
586
similarly, it was argued that the improved economic environment with vanishing tail risks, in principle, suggested also revisiting the easing bias with respect to the app purchases, whereby the governing council signalled its readiness to increase the pace and/or duration of the asset purchases if necessary.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
908
it was also pointed out that the risk of deflation had declined further.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
14
measures of underlying inflation remained low by historical standards, although they had shown a marked improvement since the trough in 2016.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
582
overall, the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook were seen to remain tilted to the downside, although they were less pronounced.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
293
the measures had actually declined since mid-june, with market participants expecting higher interest rates and lower economic growth.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
34
all in all, members agreed that the economic recovery was taking shape in line with the governing council’s earlier expectations and with the june eurosystem staff projections.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
706
bank funding costs had risen in the past few months, which had increasingly fed into higher bank lending rates, in particular for households.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
326
the next projections in june would allow a more comprehensive analysis of the main risks and their implications for price stability.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
886
developments in household bank deposits as an up-to-date, high-frequency proxy for savings showed that households continued to save less than during the height of the pandemic.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
682
while the war and the associated amplified energy supply shock created an acute dilemma for monetary policy, there was value in keeping a steady hand and waiting before deciding on further adjustments to the monetary policy stance.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
931
some insight into the reversal in the us-euro area interest rate differential could be derived from the breakdown of bond yields into the short-term rate expectations component and the term premia component.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
181
for business investment, recent data indicated a rebound also in the second quarter of 2021, after a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction in the first quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
80
the incoming information was sending a range of signals.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
497
uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook stemmed particularly from the impact of china’s reopening, fiscal measures and the exchange rate on inflation.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
63
in the coming months headline inflation was expected to remain at levels close to 2%, mainly as a result of movements in the annual rate of change of energy prices.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
79
yet, underlying price pressures continued to lack a convincing upward trend and remained an ongoing source of concern.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
406
such a path was seen as open to challenge in the light of various factors in energy markets pointing to more lasting upward pressures.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
786
some spillover effects from the events in greece had been observed in the euro area bond and equity markets, but, overall, contagion to other euro area countries had been limited.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
311
employment had increased by 0.3%, quarter on quarter, in the first quarter of 2016, with positive growth across all major sectors and large euro area countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
986
similar developments had been seen at the start of the tightening cycle, when survey results had lagged the forward curves in the euro area and the united states for several months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
821
data on new export orders pointed to a sharp fall of global trade in the second quarter of the year.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
33
an analysis of possibly more fundamental changes in the structure and functioning of financial intermediation was also seen as needed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
296
the view was expressed that the longer the inflation spike lasted, the more it would become entrenched in longer-term inflation expectations.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
62
moreover, the argument was made that the financial markets’ reaction to the governing council’s october decision and communication had contributed to a loosening of financial conditions, which had reversed some of the tightening that had occurred in the wake of the september meeting.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
211
in particular, the preamble limited the validity and scope of the new forward guidance to a situation in which robust convergence was not yet assured.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
339
with regard to the eligibility of agency issuers for the pspp, the governing council decided on a list of additional eligible agencies located in the euro area, which would apply from 16 april 2015 for purchases under the pspp.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
542
the vice-president, standing in for mr cœuré, reviewed the latest financial market developments.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,019
56
in this context, it was stressed that the strengthening of economic and monetary union remained a priority.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
396
the risks to the growth outlook remained broadly balanced over the medium term.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
768
annual hicp inflation excluding food and energy had declined slightly, to 1.1% in september 2017, following 1.2% in august and july.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
628
incoming economic data, surveys and high-frequency indicators pointed to continued economic weakness in the first quarter of 2021 driven by the persistence of the pandemic and the associated containment measures.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
764
in particular, it was recalled that developments in narrow money had typically been a good leading indicator of turning points in economic activity.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
545
in addition, in the latest spf, the expected five-year-ahead inflation rate was unchanged at 1.9%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
340
the recent strengthening of the euro constituted a noteworthy change in the external environment and would likely imply somewhat lower inflationary pressures for the euro area in the period ahead, even though the lagged effects of the euro’s pronounced past depreciation would still be working their way through the economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
742
in particular, broad agreement prevailed that, ahead of its september meeting, the governing council should neither hint at further rate increases nor signal that it would pause in hiking rates or that it had reached the peak rate.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
30
members widely shared the assessment and policy considerations put forward by mr praet in his introduction.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,015
657
growth would also benefit from a resilient labour market, with the unemployment rate declining further from historically low levels.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
241
volatility in equity markets had spiked both in the united states and in the euro area at the end of march and in early april, and was now back to low levels, suggesting that investors’ risk appetite had improved.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
324
although the recovery of the euro area economy was holding up well and financing conditions remained favourable overall, the external environment was characterised by heightened uncertainty about the growth prospects of emerging market economies, volatility in the financial and commodity markets and geopolitical risks.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
725
accordingly, members widely agreed that, while the growth outlook had become more favourable, the overall picture of the outlook for price stability had not fundamentally changed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
449
data for the second quarter would also be available – including gdp growth, compensation per employee, profit margins and productivity – alongside two more hicp releases, as well as monetary indicators and more timely soft indicators for activity and consumer confidence.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,024
407
concerns were nevertheless expressed that some of the downside risks to growth, as identified in the previous monetary policy meeting, in particular related to emerging market economies, had already partly materialised and were likely to affect negatively the outlook for euro area growth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
53
on the other, the lack of sustained growth dynamics raised concerns about the durability of what appeared to be the most inclusive and vibrant labour market in the history of the euro area.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
200
especially when comparing with the inflation outlook contained in the september 2023 staff projections, the subsequent downside inflation surprises had diminished the need for nominal wages to catch up with past inflation.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
97
according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation had decreased to 0.1% in may, down from 0.3% in april, mainly on account of lower energy price inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
150
it was fully prepared to increase the size of the pepp and adjust its composition, and potentially its other instruments, if, in the light of information that became available before its june meeting, it judged that the scale of the stimulus was falling short of what was needed.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
194
in any case, macroprudential policy remained the first line of defence in preserving financial stability and addressing medium-term vulnerabilities.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
747
euro area goods exports had contracted in the second quarter as the stockbuilding in the united kingdom, which had lifted euro area goods exports in the first quarter, had reversed.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
310
this assessment of the monetary policy stance and the line of communication reflected consideration of a number of key elements.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
7
this technical assumption had been one of the main reasons for forecast errors in the past.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
805
in other countries, the backward-looking component was much weaker, which would inevitably lead to wage differentials across countries.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
390
even though the outlook for the world economy had been upgraded slightly, there had been a downgrade in terms of the export prices of the euro area’s competitors, which was expected to fuel disinflationary pressures in the euro area, particularly in 2025.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
245
since may 2021, oil prices had increased by 88% in us dollar terms but by 111% in euro terms.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
18
global inflation remained low in march.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
341
also, credit dynamics still appeared to suggest a soft landing, given increasing evidence that loan growth had reached a trough.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
286
in addition to some positive developments in recent survey data, the citigroup surprise index was trending upwards and had been close to achieving positive values in recent weeks, while according to various models estimates of the probability of recession had declined significantly.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
461
with regard to risks for the global economy, there was agreement among members that the impact of the outcome of the uk referendum on global financial markets had been contained following an initial bout of volatility, in part owing to perceptions of possible policy reactions and to the robust regulatory and supervisory frameworks in place.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
656
measures of systemic stress, volatility and market liquidity had returned to close to their levels before the failure of silicon valley bank (svb).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
363
in particular, the global pmi for new export orders had remained above its historical average.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
940
it was considered noteworthy that volatility had been especially pronounced in markets that were traditionally considered low-risk, such as the money markets and the sovereign bond markets, with higher volatility in these markets since the beginning of the year than in the equity market.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
649
at the same time, there were indications that the euro area was moving away from reliance on external demand towards more domestic sources of expenditure, which should increase its resilience.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
15
in their assessment of the overall monetary policy stance, members broadly agreed that the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it warranted keeping a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation in place and extending the app beyond march 2017.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
342
however, the rate at which jobs were being created was seen as potentially slowing, with unemployment rising over the coming quarters.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
798
as a consequence, the output gap was closing, albeit only gradually, as was to be expected after a balance sheet recession.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
873
it was therefore suggested that it was just a matter of time before wage growth caught up, in view of the large and persistent overshoot of the inflation target.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
123
regarding fiscal policies, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance was seen as remaining critical, in view of the sharp contraction in the euro area economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
906
overall, the signals provided by money and credit developments remained positive, as broad money (m3) growth and credit to the private sector were at their highest levels since 2009.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
722
the downward shift observed in the last few weeks could be explained by market participants expecting lower growth rates to feed into lower inflation rates, requiring less-pronounced interest rate increases.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
110
however, a remark was made that, in the absence of persistent positive contributions to price developments from food and energy components in the future, underlying inflation would need to be higher than its pre-crisis average if the ecb was to meet its inflation aim on a sustained basis.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
31
hicp inflation had increased from 3.0% in august to 3.4% in september.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
664
recent monetary policy decisions by the governing council had improved broad financing conditions, which should support the outlook for consumption and investment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
720
in particular, these comprised the implications of the incoming economic and financial data for the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
521
the fiscal multipliers were also smaller.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,024
175
according to a dividend discount model, the increase in euro area non-financial equity prices was mainly driven by declines in the equity risk premium on the back of a perceived improvement in global risk sentiment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
392
it would also maintain the current degree of control over the monetary policy stance and ensure the full pass-through of the interest rate decisions to money markets.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
817
on the other hand, concern was expressed that such dichotomies could not last forever and that sooner or later there might be spillovers or contagion from the weakening in manufacturing.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
953
only the part of the overall bond repayments that exceeded the month’s cap would be reinvested.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
328
moreover, underlying inflation was weak and would likely be well below 1% in the second half of 2020.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
126
members agreed with mr lane’s proposal to confirm the reduction of the eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the pepp by €7.5 billion per month on average over the second half of the year, with the modalities for reducing the pepp holdings to be broadly in line with those followed under the app.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
4
the forward curve had shifted outwards visibly after the strategy announcement, but had retraced its path more recently.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
889
the balance of risks remained tilted to the downside, despite the downward revision to the growth projections, largely on account of persistent sources of uncertainty relating to the international environment.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
989
at the same time, progress towards a durable and self-sustaining convergence of inflation remained conditional on a substantial degree of monetary accommodation.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
726
the annual rate of change in producer prices for consumer food had continued to decline since mid-2014.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
414
if the outlook became less favourable, or if financial conditions became inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the governing council stood ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
965
it was suggested that, with wage growth having begun to moderate as expected, the focus should shift to productivity developments.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
661
at the same time, negotiated wages had continued to increase, rising from 2.1% in the third quarter of 2018 to 2.2% in the fourth quarter, and further to 2.5% in january 2019.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
9
moreover, attention was drawn to complementary support provided on the prudential side aimed at easing conditions in the banking system.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
197
it was underlined that households’ inflation expectations differed from those of financial market participants and professional forecasters, but it would be welcome if this translated into higher inflation expectations more broadly.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
435
energy price inflation had remained the main driver of overall inflation, with an increasing contribution from gas and electricity prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
553
these had fallen by 0.9% and 3.6% respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
887
more generally it was noted that, because financial markets were anticipating the full easing cycle, this had already implied an additional and immediate easing of the monetary policy stance, which was reflected in looser financial conditions.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
160
real disposable income growth in the euro area as a whole had picked up strongly in the first quarter of 2015, to 2.2%, year on year, and had been broad-based across the largest euro area economies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
637
net exports – supported by improved price competitiveness and lower energy prices – were also expected to contribute to the recovery, even though they had contributed negatively to economic growth during the first quarter of 2015.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
950
starting with the united states, expectations of monetary policy tightening had declined and, by 20 january, the market was pricing in only one rate hike in 2016.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,016
799
it was stressed that the terms-of-trade shock had been operating like a tax and that its absorption in the domestic economy should proceed with some burden-sharing between labour and capital.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
88
in the united states, markets now assessed the chance of a rate hike at the federal reserve’s meeting in may 2022 as well over one in two.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
487