gtfintechlab/european_central_bank · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 25 506	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.02k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
at the same time, the tightness in the labour market continued to diminish gradually, with employers posting fewer job vacancies.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	134
extra-euro area exports of goods had been stable as the negative contribution from asia was offset by the positive contribution from the united states, while intra-euro area trade had proved weaker, especially in intermediate goods.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	522
members also agreed with the proposal to continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions falling due in the pepp portfolio.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	422
according to market intelligence, real interest rates currently remained at levels that were supportive for growth and risk assets.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	239
euro area real gdp had contracted by 11.8%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2020.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	996
demand for bank loans to non-financial corporations had also declined in the final quarter of 2022.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	146
regarding financial and monetary conditions, the euro area yield curve had flattened substantially and was currently much lower than at the time of the december 2015 monetary policy meeting.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	218
in this context, the view was also expressed that the baseline projection for inflation in 2023 was too low.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	290
supply bottlenecks continued to restrain global activity and trade.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	783
in total, between two and three rate cuts were now priced in by the end of the year, up from two cuts immediately after the june meeting.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	473
this risk distribution suggested investors were concerned that the high uncertainty about the inflation outlook could mean the conditions of the ecb’s forward guidance might be met earlier than currently expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	315
conversely, a shorter horizon would provide a stronger signal to banks that they needed to be prepared to secure funding on private markets and avoid becoming overly reliant on central bank funding.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	815
the ratio of net operating surplus to value added had increased further in the fourth quarter of 2015.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	909
the june 2018 eurosystem staff projections for euro area real gdp growth were broadly aligned with, or slightly below, available forecasts from other international institutions.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	934
this concealed an upgrade to the outlook for advanced economies relative to that for emerging market economies, given the more rapid progress with vaccination programmes in the former and some new concerns about the pandemic in the latter.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	402
external financing flows to euro area nfcs had strengthened overall in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by robust developments in bank lending and market-based financing in october and november.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	510
however, it was highlighted that in response to the increase in cases of infection further measures had been taken, or had been announced, in many euro area countries, which had led to tighter restrictions than had been anticipated in the december projections.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	732
so a significant tightening of financing conditions was embedded in the projections, which reflected the ecb’s monetary policy tightening.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	26
in consideration of all these arguments, the adjustment was therefore judged to be proportionate in the service of the governing council’s mandate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	39
still, monetary transmission via the bank lending channel was generally seen to have been stronger than previously anticipated, including by banks themselves, and to have led to a significant tightening of financing conditions.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	86
reference was also made to empirical evidence that the public sector played a leading role in private sector wage-setting in a number of euro area countries.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	47
yield curves in the us and german bond markets had flattened quite materially, by around 40 basis points and 30 basis points respectively, since about mid-march.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	807
finally, spreading bond purchases over a longer horizon was also seen as having important implications for policy rate expectations via the sequencing embodied in the governing council’s forward guidance, which so far had provided a useful anchor for market expectations of future policy rates.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	957
annual consumer price inflation in the oecd area had remained stable in april, while inflation excluding food and energy had slowed marginally to 1.9%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	903
moreover, the concern was raised that, if the governing council deviated from its earlier guidance and surprised markets with a larger than expected increase, this would add to the prevailing market uncertainties.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	526
it had decelerated slightly for goods inflation, but was still very high.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	933
to maintain the symmetry of its inflation target, the governing council recognised the importance of taking into account the implications of the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	454
money markets had continued to function smoothly, in spite of the increase in uncertainty as a result of the uk referendum.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	606
at the same time, some nuances were expressed about individual elements of the policy package.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	941
members widely acknowledged the resilience of the labour market.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	298
regarding slack in the euro area economy, a range of estimates and indicators suggested a large degree of uncertainty while in general pointing to significant levels of slack.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	702
against this background, members generally agreed that, from the present point of view, the evidence available continued to indicate that convincing progress towards a durable and self-sustaining convergence of inflation towards the governing council’s medium-term inflation aim had yet to be ensured.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	142
the september projections foresaw hicp inflation at an average of 2.2 per cent in 2021, before returning to 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	273
most measures of underlying inflation had risen over recent months, but the persistence of the rise in these indicators remained uncertain owing to the indirect effects of higher energy prices and the role of temporary pandemic factors.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	943
there was very broad agreement among members that the proposed policy package would benefit from strong credit easing components, namely with regard to the launch of new tltros to provide support for the bank lending channel.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	223
the purchasing managers’ index (pmi) for both manufacturing and services at the global level continued to point to an ongoing recovery at the turn of the year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	154
members considered the implications of the reopening of china’s economy for inflation developments in the euro area.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	103
the argument was made that the export weakness could over time be expected to spill over to domestic demand and to the services sector of the economy, and there were already some indications of the slowdown in exports affecting labour market developments.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	724
in that period the ecb had granted exceptionally favourable conditions to credit institutions that borrowed via these operations, with the aim of sustaining the supply of bank loans to the real economy at a time when banks were likely to pull back and disengage from credit intermediation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	369
reference was made in the discussion to a number of factors, including the impact of trade tensions between the united states and china, the threat posed by a trade dispute between the european union and the united states, and the risks surrounding a disorderly withdrawal of the united kingdom from the european union.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	502
trade in goods had expanded at the strongest pace in a decade in february 2017.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	44
moreover, the higher purchase pace would ensure that the eurosystem showed a more robust presence in the market during times of heightened volatility, not least in the market for corporate bonds.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	532
at the same time, it was highlighted that recent supportive financial market developments largely reflected market expectations about the monetary policy decisions to be taken at the current meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	106
it was argued that some of the stronger tightening of credit standards reported in the survey, beyond the level that had been expected by banks in the previous survey round, was likely to be attributable to the recent tensions in the global banking system.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	558
in the other direction, the 2023 and 2024 inflation projections from the ecb survey of professional forecasters had increased.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	259
in such an environment, it was felt important for monetary policy to counter strongly any emergence of second-round effects in price and wage setting.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	616
a high proportion of vaccinations had also strengthened investor confidence in the resilience of the euro area recovery.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	114
on the other hand, the view was taken that structural weakness could be amplified by high interest rates.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	795
having been able to keep inflation expectations anchored, despite the long period in which inflation had been above target, was seen as a major achievement.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	338
it was recalled that the september 2018 ecb staff projections had incorporated a small acceleration in quarterly growth rates in 2019, compared with the profile for 2018, which could be revisited.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	155
a concern was voiced that, with the current slowdown in economic activity, the ongoing transmission of past monetary policy actions could lead to a more pronounced deceleration in economic activity than was necessary to achieve price stability.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	186
against this background, members assessed the data that had become available since the september monetary policy meeting in accordance with the three main elements of the “reaction function” that the governing council had communicated earlier in the year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	222
moreover, broader measures of labour underutilisation, which took into consideration groups that are marginally attached to the labour market, such as discouraged workers, and the underemployed, pointed to a much higher degree of labour market slack than was evident from the unemployment statistics.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	162
while the war would likely dent economic growth in the short term, annual growth was projected to remain positive even in the severe scenario, pointing to “slowflation” rather than stagflation.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	862
it was pointed out that the share of firms citing labour shortages as a constraint on output remained high but had been falling, pointing to less labour market tightness.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	87
overall, economic activity could be expected to return to its pre-crisis level in the first quarter of next year.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	569
the transmission of higher wages to consumer price inflation was considered to remain a key issue for the medium-term outlook for inflation, with higher wage growth not yet having passed through to price inflation, as firms had absorbed increases by lowering profit margins.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	164
this could, in part, be attributed to the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets, which was still incomplete, as evidenced by the high level of non-performing loans in some countries where a clear turnaround could not yet be discerned.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	90
covered bonds had thus benefitted from the flight to quality and this had possibly deterred some investors from reducing their covered bond positions in favour of other assets with better relative value.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	843
all in all, it would be plausible to expect productivity growth to rebound in the near future, which would contain unit labour costs and inflation.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	945
in this respect, attention was drawn to the correlation between movements in oil prices and market-based measures of inflation compensation.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	775
the current inflation dynamics most likely did not yet reflect recent monetary policy tightening.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	762
survey indicators suggested a moderation in non-construction investment in the second half of the year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	354
nominal wage growth had stabilised at a low level, with compensation per employee standing at 1.3% in both the third and fourth quarters of 2015.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	748
compared with the october monetary policy meeting, financing conditions were broadly unchanged and remained very favourable overall.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	29
the point was made that, during recessions, the decline in employment was typically achieved through a reduction in hiring, not through increased firing.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	840
attention was drawn to the increase in consumer inflation expectations in march.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	544
with respect to a possible resurgence of fragmentation in euro area financial conditions, it was recalled that, in december, the governing council had included a general reference to flexibility in its communication, which had since been included in the regular monetary policy press releases.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	287
in several other countries, such downward adjustments might be limited by nominal rigidities, implying that wage developments would not fully reflect the past decline in oil prices.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	727
at the same time, it was remarked that recent movements in the euro exchange rate seemed to relate more to relative monetary policy shocks, including communication, and less to improvements in the macroeconomic outlook for the euro area.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	703
there was broad agreement that monetary policy had to remain highly accommodative for an extended period of time in the face of a protracted weakness in the economy and subdued inflation developments.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	626
second, risk-free rates and sovereign yields were leading indicators for financing conditions at the later stages of transmission.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	446
high rates of corporate loan growth continued to mirror elevated liquidity needs of firms to finance their ongoing expenditures, such as wage payments and working capital, and to further build liquidity buffers.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	207
therefore, there was broad agreement that the governing council should communicate that, on the basis of this updated assessment, it would recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that financing conditions remained favourable to support the economic recovery, counteracting the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path and thereby fostering the convergence of inflation towards the governing council’s aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	466
therefore, preserving a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation beyond march 2017 was seen as necessary to secure the sustained return of inflation towards levels consistent with the governing council’s inflation aim.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	605
labour market indicators continued to be heavily affected by government support programmes, which complicated the assessment of underlying developments.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	75
at the same time, while risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remained broadly balanced, it was acknowledged that risks related to global factors, including the threat of increased protectionism, had become more prominent and warranted monitoring with regard to their implications for the medium-term outlook for growth and prices.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	16
the indeed job postings suggested that this trend would continue in the second quarter.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	428
in this context, it was observed that to date financial markets had remained fairly resilient and rebounded rather rapidly, also reflecting the swift and forceful monetary policy response so far.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	98
it was argued that this would still need to be factored into the outlook and would imply a faster closing of the output gap.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	960
moreover, it was deemed essential that the governing council reaffirm its commitment to achieve its stated inflation aim.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	485
in view of the high uncertainty and the risk that further supply shocks could materialise, the governing council’s data-dependent approach was also reaffirmed.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	538
members concurred that euro area banks had demonstrated their resilience, had high capital ratios and had become significantly more profitable over the past year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	572
the dispersion of lending rates to borrowers domiciled in different jurisdictions had narrowed, remuneration of bank deposits had become much less diverse and, in most countries, nfcs were benefiting from more favourable conditions on loans.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	61
it was observed that expectations of substantial us fiscal support had led to a steepening of the us treasury yield curve, which had only affected yields in the euro area to a limited extent, as a significant “decoupling” of yields could be observed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	689
members generally agreed that the rise in longer-term interest rates in the euro area had tightened financing conditions by more than anticipated.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	615
it was emphasised that the continued increases in market-based inflation compensation measures, including the measure for five years forward five years ahead standing at above 2.5%, were mainly due to risk premia.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	976
a recession was becoming increasingly likely and would mitigate inflationary pressures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	260
food price inflation had come down from its peak of 15.5% in march but had still been almost 10% in august.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	948
this suggested that a large part of the pass-through of past interest rate increases was still in the pipeline.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	518
following the pandemic, the economy was going through a period of intensified job churning, so it was natural that labour productivity and wage growth were accelerating.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	779
funding had become more expensive for banks, and average interest rates for business loans and mortgages had risen again in august, although rates on longer-term loans to non-financial corporations had declined.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	46
risks to the medium-term inflation outlook were seen to be clearly tilted to the upside.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	527
more generally, a significant part of the current weakness in manufacturing was likely to be of a structural nature, which would have different implications for the evolution of inflation, particularly as previous downward revisions to potential output growth might prove insufficient.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	377
structural reforms were seen as essential to enhance competition, lay the foundations for sustainable growth and provide a more favourable investment climate by improving the medium to long-term return on capital.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	5
the projected annual growth rate of global activity excluding the euro area stood at 2.9% in 2019, its lowest level since 2008-09.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	956
in stock markets, the euro stoxx 50 index had further extended its gains, gradually approaching pre-pandemic levels.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	864
the euro area net lending position, as a percentage of nominal gdp, had continued to increase over the last year and a half, despite the strong recovery in domestic demand.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	861
at the same time, non-performing loans remained a factor constraining credit expansion in some countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	48
third, although global stock markets had partly recovered the losses seen in late february and early march 2020 – the euro stoxx 50 index had risen by more than 20% since the pepp announcement – there were signs that the significant remaining uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook continued to pose risks to current valuations.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	256

at the same time, the tightness in the labour market continued to diminish gradually, with employers posting fewer job vacancies.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

134

extra-euro area exports of goods had been stable as the negative contribution from asia was offset by the positive contribution from the united states, while intra-euro area trade had proved weaker, especially in intermediate goods.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

522

members also agreed with the proposal to continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions falling due in the pepp portfolio.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

422

according to market intelligence, real interest rates currently remained at levels that were supportive for growth and risk assets.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

239

euro area real gdp had contracted by 11.8%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2020.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

996

demand for bank loans to non-financial corporations had also declined in the final quarter of 2022.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

146

regarding financial and monetary conditions, the euro area yield curve had flattened substantially and was currently much lower than at the time of the december 2015 monetary policy meeting.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

218

in this context, the view was also expressed that the baseline projection for inflation in 2023 was too low.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

290

supply bottlenecks continued to restrain global activity and trade.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

783

in total, between two and three rate cuts were now priced in by the end of the year, up from two cuts immediately after the june meeting.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

473

this risk distribution suggested investors were concerned that the high uncertainty about the inflation outlook could mean the conditions of the ecb’s forward guidance might be met earlier than currently expected.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

315

conversely, a shorter horizon would provide a stronger signal to banks that they needed to be prepared to secure funding on private markets and avoid becoming overly reliant on central bank funding.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

815

the ratio of net operating surplus to value added had increased further in the fourth quarter of 2015.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

909

the june 2018 eurosystem staff projections for euro area real gdp growth were broadly aligned with, or slightly below, available forecasts from other international institutions.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

934

this concealed an upgrade to the outlook for advanced economies relative to that for emerging market economies, given the more rapid progress with vaccination programmes in the former and some new concerns about the pandemic in the latter.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

402

external financing flows to euro area nfcs had strengthened overall in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by robust developments in bank lending and market-based financing in october and november.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

510

however, it was highlighted that in response to the increase in cases of infection further measures had been taken, or had been announced, in many euro area countries, which had led to tighter restrictions than had been anticipated in the december projections.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

732

so a significant tightening of financing conditions was embedded in the projections, which reflected the ecb’s monetary policy tightening.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

26

in consideration of all these arguments, the adjustment was therefore judged to be proportionate in the service of the governing council’s mandate.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

39

still, monetary transmission via the bank lending channel was generally seen to have been stronger than previously anticipated, including by banks themselves, and to have led to a significant tightening of financing conditions.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

86

reference was also made to empirical evidence that the public sector played a leading role in private sector wage-setting in a number of euro area countries.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

47

yield curves in the us and german bond markets had flattened quite materially, by around 40 basis points and 30 basis points respectively, since about mid-march.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

807

finally, spreading bond purchases over a longer horizon was also seen as having important implications for policy rate expectations via the sequencing embodied in the governing council’s forward guidance, which so far had provided a useful anchor for market expectations of future policy rates.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

957

annual consumer price inflation in the oecd area had remained stable in april, while inflation excluding food and energy had slowed marginally to 1.9%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

903

moreover, the concern was raised that, if the governing council deviated from its earlier guidance and surprised markets with a larger than expected increase, this would add to the prevailing market uncertainties.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

526

it had decelerated slightly for goods inflation, but was still very high.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

933

to maintain the symmetry of its inflation target, the governing council recognised the importance of taking into account the implications of the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

454

money markets had continued to function smoothly, in spite of the increase in uncertainty as a result of the uk referendum.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

606

at the same time, some nuances were expressed about individual elements of the policy package.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

941

members widely acknowledged the resilience of the labour market.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

298

regarding slack in the euro area economy, a range of estimates and indicators suggested a large degree of uncertainty while in general pointing to significant levels of slack.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

702

against this background, members generally agreed that, from the present point of view, the evidence available continued to indicate that convincing progress towards a durable and self-sustaining convergence of inflation towards the governing council’s medium-term inflation aim had yet to be ensured.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

142

the september projections foresaw hicp inflation at an average of 2.2 per cent in 2021, before returning to 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

273

most measures of underlying inflation had risen over recent months, but the persistence of the rise in these indicators remained uncertain owing to the indirect effects of higher energy prices and the role of temporary pandemic factors.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

943

there was very broad agreement among members that the proposed policy package would benefit from strong credit easing components, namely with regard to the launch of new tltros to provide support for the bank lending channel.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

223

the purchasing managers’ index (pmi) for both manufacturing and services at the global level continued to point to an ongoing recovery at the turn of the year.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

154

members considered the implications of the reopening of china’s economy for inflation developments in the euro area.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

103

the argument was made that the export weakness could over time be expected to spill over to domestic demand and to the services sector of the economy, and there were already some indications of the slowdown in exports affecting labour market developments.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

724

in that period the ecb had granted exceptionally favourable conditions to credit institutions that borrowed via these operations, with the aim of sustaining the supply of bank loans to the real economy at a time when banks were likely to pull back and disengage from credit intermediation.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

369

reference was made in the discussion to a number of factors, including the impact of trade tensions between the united states and china, the threat posed by a trade dispute between the european union and the united states, and the risks surrounding a disorderly withdrawal of the united kingdom from the european union.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

502

trade in goods had expanded at the strongest pace in a decade in february 2017.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

44

moreover, the higher purchase pace would ensure that the eurosystem showed a more robust presence in the market during times of heightened volatility, not least in the market for corporate bonds.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

532

at the same time, it was highlighted that recent supportive financial market developments largely reflected market expectations about the monetary policy decisions to be taken at the current meeting.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

106

it was argued that some of the stronger tightening of credit standards reported in the survey, beyond the level that had been expected by banks in the previous survey round, was likely to be attributable to the recent tensions in the global banking system.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

558

in the other direction, the 2023 and 2024 inflation projections from the ecb survey of professional forecasters had increased.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

259

in such an environment, it was felt important for monetary policy to counter strongly any emergence of second-round effects in price and wage setting.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

616

a high proportion of vaccinations had also strengthened investor confidence in the resilience of the euro area recovery.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

114

on the other hand, the view was taken that structural weakness could be amplified by high interest rates.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

795

having been able to keep inflation expectations anchored, despite the long period in which inflation had been above target, was seen as a major achievement.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

338

it was recalled that the september 2018 ecb staff projections had incorporated a small acceleration in quarterly growth rates in 2019, compared with the profile for 2018, which could be revisited.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

155

a concern was voiced that, with the current slowdown in economic activity, the ongoing transmission of past monetary policy actions could lead to a more pronounced deceleration in economic activity than was necessary to achieve price stability.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

186

against this background, members assessed the data that had become available since the september monetary policy meeting in accordance with the three main elements of the “reaction function” that the governing council had communicated earlier in the year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

222

moreover, broader measures of labour underutilisation, which took into consideration groups that are marginally attached to the labour market, such as discouraged workers, and the underemployed, pointed to a much higher degree of labour market slack than was evident from the unemployment statistics.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

162

while the war would likely dent economic growth in the short term, annual growth was projected to remain positive even in the severe scenario, pointing to “slowflation” rather than stagflation.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

862

it was pointed out that the share of firms citing labour shortages as a constraint on output remained high but had been falling, pointing to less labour market tightness.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

87

overall, economic activity could be expected to return to its pre-crisis level in the first quarter of next year.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

569

the transmission of higher wages to consumer price inflation was considered to remain a key issue for the medium-term outlook for inflation, with higher wage growth not yet having passed through to price inflation, as firms had absorbed increases by lowering profit margins.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

164

this could, in part, be attributed to the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets, which was still incomplete, as evidenced by the high level of non-performing loans in some countries where a clear turnaround could not yet be discerned.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

90

covered bonds had thus benefitted from the flight to quality and this had possibly deterred some investors from reducing their covered bond positions in favour of other assets with better relative value.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

843

all in all, it would be plausible to expect productivity growth to rebound in the near future, which would contain unit labour costs and inflation.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

945

in this respect, attention was drawn to the correlation between movements in oil prices and market-based measures of inflation compensation.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

775

the current inflation dynamics most likely did not yet reflect recent monetary policy tightening.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

762

survey indicators suggested a moderation in non-construction investment in the second half of the year.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

354

nominal wage growth had stabilised at a low level, with compensation per employee standing at 1.3% in both the third and fourth quarters of 2015.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

748

compared with the october monetary policy meeting, financing conditions were broadly unchanged and remained very favourable overall.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

29

the point was made that, during recessions, the decline in employment was typically achieved through a reduction in hiring, not through increased firing.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

840

attention was drawn to the increase in consumer inflation expectations in march.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

544

with respect to a possible resurgence of fragmentation in euro area financial conditions, it was recalled that, in december, the governing council had included a general reference to flexibility in its communication, which had since been included in the regular monetary policy press releases.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

287

in several other countries, such downward adjustments might be limited by nominal rigidities, implying that wage developments would not fully reflect the past decline in oil prices.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

727

at the same time, it was remarked that recent movements in the euro exchange rate seemed to relate more to relative monetary policy shocks, including communication, and less to improvements in the macroeconomic outlook for the euro area.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

703

there was broad agreement that monetary policy had to remain highly accommodative for an extended period of time in the face of a protracted weakness in the economy and subdued inflation developments.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

626

second, risk-free rates and sovereign yields were leading indicators for financing conditions at the later stages of transmission.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

446

high rates of corporate loan growth continued to mirror elevated liquidity needs of firms to finance their ongoing expenditures, such as wage payments and working capital, and to further build liquidity buffers.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

207

therefore, there was broad agreement that the governing council should communicate that, on the basis of this updated assessment, it would recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that financing conditions remained favourable to support the economic recovery, counteracting the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path and thereby fostering the convergence of inflation towards the governing council’s aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

466

therefore, preserving a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation beyond march 2017 was seen as necessary to secure the sustained return of inflation towards levels consistent with the governing council’s inflation aim.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

605

labour market indicators continued to be heavily affected by government support programmes, which complicated the assessment of underlying developments.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

75

at the same time, while risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remained broadly balanced, it was acknowledged that risks related to global factors, including the threat of increased protectionism, had become more prominent and warranted monitoring with regard to their implications for the medium-term outlook for growth and prices.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

16

the indeed job postings suggested that this trend would continue in the second quarter.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

428

in this context, it was observed that to date financial markets had remained fairly resilient and rebounded rather rapidly, also reflecting the swift and forceful monetary policy response so far.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

98

it was argued that this would still need to be factored into the outlook and would imply a faster closing of the output gap.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

960

moreover, it was deemed essential that the governing council reaffirm its commitment to achieve its stated inflation aim.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

485

in view of the high uncertainty and the risk that further supply shocks could materialise, the governing council’s data-dependent approach was also reaffirmed.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

538

members concurred that euro area banks had demonstrated their resilience, had high capital ratios and had become significantly more profitable over the past year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

572

the dispersion of lending rates to borrowers domiciled in different jurisdictions had narrowed, remuneration of bank deposits had become much less diverse and, in most countries, nfcs were benefiting from more favourable conditions on loans.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

61

it was observed that expectations of substantial us fiscal support had led to a steepening of the us treasury yield curve, which had only affected yields in the euro area to a limited extent, as a significant “decoupling” of yields could be observed.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

689

members generally agreed that the rise in longer-term interest rates in the euro area had tightened financing conditions by more than anticipated.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

615

it was emphasised that the continued increases in market-based inflation compensation measures, including the measure for five years forward five years ahead standing at above 2.5%, were mainly due to risk premia.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

976

a recession was becoming increasingly likely and would mitigate inflationary pressures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

260

food price inflation had come down from its peak of 15.5% in march but had still been almost 10% in august.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

948

this suggested that a large part of the pass-through of past interest rate increases was still in the pipeline.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

518

following the pandemic, the economy was going through a period of intensified job churning, so it was natural that labour productivity and wage growth were accelerating.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

779

funding had become more expensive for banks, and average interest rates for business loans and mortgages had risen again in august, although rates on longer-term loans to non-financial corporations had declined.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

46

risks to the medium-term inflation outlook were seen to be clearly tilted to the upside.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

527

more generally, a significant part of the current weakness in manufacturing was likely to be of a structural nature, which would have different implications for the evolution of inflation, particularly as previous downward revisions to potential output growth might prove insufficient.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

377

structural reforms were seen as essential to enhance competition, lay the foundations for sustainable growth and provide a more favourable investment climate by improving the medium to long-term return on capital.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

5

the projected annual growth rate of global activity excluding the euro area stood at 2.9% in 2019, its lowest level since 2008-09.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

956

in stock markets, the euro stoxx 50 index had further extended its gains, gradually approaching pre-pandemic levels.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

864

the euro area net lending position, as a percentage of nominal gdp, had continued to increase over the last year and a half, despite the strong recovery in domestic demand.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

861

at the same time, non-performing loans remained a factor constraining credit expansion in some countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

48

third, although global stock markets had partly recovered the losses seen in late february and early march 2020 – the euro stoxx 50 index had risen by more than 20% since the pepp announcement – there were signs that the significant remaining uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook continued to pose risks to current valuations.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

256