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moreover, although there was tentative evidence suggesting that wage growth was close to a peak, further evidence was required to be sure it was turning. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 705 |
summing up, mr praet noted that the euro area economic recovery was expected to continue at a somewhat slower pace than previously anticipated, largely reflecting the slowdown in emerging market economies. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 921 |
looking ahead, members voiced some nuances related to the appropriate pace of the gradual normalisation. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 158 |
however, it was also argued that a more moderate increase in the pace would better reflect the assessment of more balanced risks to the outlook, also in the light of previous decisions when a similar pace had been chosen but economic conditions had been worse. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 654 |
the question was posed as to whether the strong rebound in the economy, in part also as a result of monetary policy measures, was fully consistent with the underlying financial market assumptions, since expectations of a pronounced recovery in growth appeared not to square easily with interest rates and monetary conditions remaining very accommodative far into the future. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 822 |
in their discussion of the outlook for economic activity, members welcomed the positive news about the prospective roll-out of vaccines and thus a gradual resolution of the health crisis. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 43 |
turning to euro area activity, in the second quarter real gdp had increased by 0.3% quarter on quarter. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 189 |
looking further ahead, members widely shared the view that the more protracted “soft patch” suggested by the latest data remained consistent with the baseline scenario of a return to more solid growth in the second half of the current year. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 869 |
it was argued that attaching more weight to observable data would improve policy decisions, in particular when uncertainty was high. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 987 |
in all cases, the singleness of monetary policy was preserved, as reflected in the full control the governing council would always maintain over all its monetary policy instruments, including the design features of the expanded asset purchase programme, and with the ecb always coordinating the purchases. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 467 |
this appeared to be in line with the state-contingent elements of the governing council’s forward guidance on both of these instruments and contributed to preserving the financial conditions necessary for sustained inflation convergence. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 257 |
either investors were sanguine about the long-term repercussions of the crisis and expected a v-shaped recovery with no protracted effects on growth, or they were finding it difficult to price in the impact on growth and earnings from the covid-19 pandemic. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 658 |
so this survey was closely aligned with the view that inflation would come down to close to target in 2024 and stay there. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 754 |
as government bond spreads had remained resilient, the nominal euro area ten-year gdp-weighted sovereign bond yield had declined further since the governing council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 9-10 june 2021 and was currently again in negative territory. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 632 |
in this context, it was recalled that macroprudential policies were the first line of defence for addressing risks and side effects, as they could be tailored to the issues identified. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 426 |
this situation was also reflected in the forward rate curve, which suggested that the probability of a rate increase versus a pause at the september meeting had been relatively evenly split for some time, as had been the case with analysts’ expectations, such as those reported in the survey of monetary analysts. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 288 |
at the same time, it was considered necessary to retain sufficient flexibility and optionality for monetary policy in the period ahead, and the importance of data-dependency in determining the ecb’s policy stance was underlined. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 70 |
with regard to economic activity in the euro area, members concurred with mr lane that growth was likely to remain subdued in the coming months. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 167 |
against this background, it was recalled that the ecb also had secondary objectives. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 102 |
overall, members considered that the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook could still be assessed as broadly balanced, notwithstanding the uncertainties related to global factors, notably the threat of protectionism. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 250 |
turning to the euro area, in the first quarter of 2021 the economy had experienced a consumption-led drop in gdp growth. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 832 |
their ongoing pass-through supported the economic upturn, which was steadily firming and broadening across sectors. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 916 |
this was supported by survey-based evidence on the distribution of inflation expectations. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 763 |
it was highlighted that borrowing conditions for firms and households had improved further since the governing council’s previous monetary policy meeting, which was seen as a sign of receding impairments in the credit channel of monetary policy, permitting the effective transmission of the policy measures taken by the governing council. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 84 |
a first 10-basis point increase in the ecb’s deposit facility rate was currently priced in for the fourth quarter of 2019, while survey-based information suggested a somewhat earlier timing, which might in part reflect the presence of negative term premia in ois rates. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 295 |
moreover, while patience was still required for inflation to return to levels consistent with the governing council’s medium-term inflation aim, more solid and broad-based economic growth prospects supported increased confidence in a strengthened resilience of the inflation path to possible adverse developments. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 125 |
turning to the euro area, members generally agreed that the assessment of the growth situation had improved, with the latest data providing confirmation that the cyclical recovery of the euro area economy was progressing broadly in line with the baseline in the march 2017 ecb staff projections and possibly more favourably in the first half of the year. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 845 |
at the same time, it was underlined that the evidence that monetary policy transmission was working was to be welcomed and remained consistent with a soft landing. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 191 |
turning to inflation expectations, in the survey of professional forecasters (spf), the centre of the distribution of long-term inflation expectations had remained around 2% since inflation had peaked in the fourth quarter of 2022. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 617 |
moreover, the slowdown in demand in china could contribute to greater global uncertainty and a possible loss of confidence, which could have a more substantial impact on global growth. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 64 |
the latest ecb staff projections saw euro area real gdp as growing at a slightly stronger pace in 2017 and 2018 than had been expected in december. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 709 |
while such volatility was not surprising at turning points in monetary policy, its magnitude had been amplified by the combination of shocks hitting the world economy: the war in ukraine, the energy transition, global excess demand and china’s zero-covid policy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 247 |
in this context, it was argued that the current fiscal stance was out of line with the cyclical position of the economy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 434 |
measures of underlying inflation were at elevated levels. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 362 |
the september 2022 ecb staff macroeconomic projections featured a significant upward revision to inflation in the period to the third quarter of 2023. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 215 |
the ecb’s corporate telephone survey showed that large companies expected margins to deteriorate in 2023 from elevated 2021-22 levels. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 879 |
the impact of oil prices on inflation expectations should, in principle, be transitory and of limited relevance over medium-term and longer-term horizons. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 985 |
starting with the global outlook, mr lane noted that global economic activity was still subdued but there were some signs of improvement. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 652 |
annual real gdp growth was projected to fall by 8% in 2020 and to increase by 5% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 316 |
while global economic growth was expected to pick up gradually, risks were assessed to remain on the downside, in part related to geopolitical developments. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 489 |
however, the strength of the rebound might also have reflected that countries had eased containment measures too much too soon. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 89 |
this was widely seen as validating the governing council’s march decision to significantly increase the pace of net asset purchases under the pepp, effectively insulating euro area financing conditions from global spillovers and preventing a premature tightening. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 977 |
brent crude oil prices had risen above usd 90 per barrel on fears of rising tensions in the middle east. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 199 |
high economic uncertainty was seen to weigh on consumption, with the level of precautionary savings in particular being dependent on developments in household confidence. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 277 |
real gdp had risen by 0.4%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2015, following a rise of 0.5% in the previous quarter. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 878 |
on the one hand, it was argued that the experience gained in the 1970s, when different inflation outcomes across jurisdictions could be traced back to different central bank reaction functions, suggested that central banks that acted earlier achieved better inflation outcomes. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 789 |
this would facilitate a better assessment of the momentum and sustainability of the recovery and the prospects for a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 408 |
borrowing conditions for firms and households had remained very supportive. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 865 |
the latest bank lending survey pointed to a further tightening of credit standards and another sharp drop in loan demand in the second quarter for both firms and households, since banks were becoming more concerned about the risks faced by their customers and less willing to bear these risks. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 148 |
only towards the end of the projection horizon was output projected to return to its pre-pandemic level. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 894 |
annual inflation had eased slightly to 2.5% in june, with both goods price inflation and services price inflation unchanged, at 0.7% and 4.1% respectively. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 37 |
it was also recalled that the ecb’s strategy review in 2021 had confirmed that it targeted headline, rather than core inflation, as the relevant yardstick for monetary policy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 776 |
finally, the governing council would continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 380 |
moreover, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points offered greater protection against downside shocks than keeping them at their current levels. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 851 |
regarding the resilience criterion, it was widely noted that inflation convergence was becoming increasingly self-sustaining and its reliance on the contribution of the net asset purchases was gradually waning, although it continued to depend on an ample degree of monetary accommodation overall. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 697 |
as a result, structural reforms might be seen as increasing inflationary pressures through their positive impact on the output gap in the short run, rather than reducing them. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 814 |
in contrast, growth had been revised down by 1.2 percentage points for 2023 and by 0.2 percentage points for 2024, owing mainly to the impact of energy supply disruptions, higher inflation and declining confidence. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 904 |
summing up, mr praet noted that financial conditions had eased since the governing council’s march 2019 monetary policy meeting. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 252 |
doubts about the enforcement of the stability and growth pact were seen to increase uncertainty and to risk weakening further the credibility of the fiscal framework over time. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 929 |
banks’ profits had recovered to levels seen before the pandemic, despite continued pressure on net interest margins. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 611 |
the annual growth rates of loans to nfcs and of loans to households had increased further in the third quarter of 2017. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 500 |
headline inflation in the euro area had exceeded headline inflation in the united states owing to much higher energy and food inflation. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 163 |
it was argued that the governing council should look through the current supply disruptions and keep a steady hand, while carefully monitoring any developments pointing to an unanchoring of inflation expectations. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 280 |
over the same period, the euro had strengthened both against the us dollar and, to a lesser extent, in nominal effective terms against the currencies of the euro area’s 38 major trading partners. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 942 |
the dynamics of loans to firms had remained strong in may, driven by firms’ operational financing needs, in an environment of compressed cash flows – but with substantial variation across countries. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 596 |
annual growth in compensation per employee had stood at 1.2% in the first quarter of 2017, down from 1.4% in the final quarter of 2016. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 604 |
likewise, if the medium-term inflation outlook were to moderate, the pace would be slower. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 217 |
looking ahead, the outlook for headline inflation was expected to be more subdued than previously anticipated. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 395 |
the new strategy acknowledged the advantages of having two specialised areas of analyses on the economy, but also recognised the value of integrating the analysis, in a world in which there were multiple feedback channels from the monetary and financial spheres to the broader economy, and vice versa. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 997 |
the point was made that in the public perception repeated underestimations of inflation were likely to be more problematic than overestimations, as the general public was typically less concerned if actual inflation turned out lower than expected. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 475 |
what mattered from a monetary policy perspective was the evolution of real rates, which had declined to record low levels in recent weeks. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 203 |
a “blackout period”, i.e. | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 850 |
at the same time, a wealth of research over the past years had helped to synthesise the experiences under the previous strategy and to mould it into the new one, which from now on would guide the governing council’s decisions, ensuring consistency in the conduct of the ecb’s monetary policy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 963 |
this formulation would also keep an element of the focus on current developments by retaining the reference to underlying inflation. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 982 |
at the same time, it was perceived that the reaction of financial markets in the euro area had been more contained than could have been expected, both in the initial responses and in the partial reversals that took place afterwards. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 445 |
at the same time, it would stand ready to provide liquidity support if needed to ensure a smooth monetary policy transmission. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 507 |
in the financial sector, continued progress was needed in addressing non-performing loans and ensuring adequate capital positions. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 645 |
measures of underlying inflation had continued to move sideways, even if labour cost pressures had continued to strengthen and broaden as labour markets had tightened further. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 196 |
at the same time, recent survey data, such as production expectations and business confidence, signalled the start of a recovery in the third quarter of 2020, as projected in the june 2020 projections exercise. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 708 |
financial markets had been driven by two opposing forces. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 785 |
measures of underlying inflation remained subdued and had yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 423 |
the point was made that this risk was elevated and was likely to rise non-linearly if inflation remained too high over an extended period of time, as suggested in the projections. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 683 |
at the same time, some caution was voiced, as the more recent developments in the euro exchange rate and in financial conditions in part reflected changing perceptions about monetary and fiscal policies, domestically and globally, as well as rising risks of protectionism and heightened market sensitivity to communication, rather than further improvements in domestic economic fundamentals. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 415 |
developments in euro area corporate bond markets had mirrored those in equity markets, with spreads of investment-grade financial corporate bonds and non-financial corporate bonds in the euro area, excluding france, having narrowed overall. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 895 |
in china, real gdp growth had rebounded strongly in the first quarter from its pandemic-induced slump. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 693 |
a very broad consensus supported the 25 basis point rate increase proposed by mr lane, while a preference was also initially expressed for raising the key ecb interest rates by 50 basis points in view of the risk of high inflation becoming more persistent. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 993 |
however, none of these explanations was fully borne out by financial market data. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 781 |
excluding food and energy, hicp inflation had decreased slightly, from 1.2% in august to 1.1% in september. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 400 |
additionally, supply bottlenecks might prove more protracted than assumed in the baseline scenario. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 132 |
yet, in contrast to previous episodes of heightened volatility in sovereign bond markets, there had so far been no visible differentiation between banks across euro area jurisdictions. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 55 |
for example, the transmission of market rates to time deposits and bank lending rates had been relatively limited and weaker than in the past in the fourth largest euro area economy, but more rapid than usual for lending rates in the largest economy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 981 |
although different views were expressed about these scenarios, it was generally considered that, of the three scenarios presented, the “mild” scenario was probably already too optimistic. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 847 |
euro area sovereign credit spreads had remained resilient to the recent change in german government bond yields. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 193 |
overnight index swap (ois) markets were currently pricing in a steeper and more frontloaded rate-cutting cycle than had been anticipated at the time of the governing council’s previous monetary policy meeting. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 696 |
weakening global activity would also weigh on global trade and euro area foreign demand, despite improvements in global supply chain pressures. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 431 |
the view was widely held that a change in the tltro iii conditions would reinforce the transmission of changes in the policy rates to bank funding costs and bank lending conditions for households and firms, which to date did not fully reflect the intended monetary policy tightening. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 620 |
however, more recently the focus of investors had gradually shifted back towards a tighter monetary policy stance as inflation outcomes had continued to be higher than expected. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 660 |
reference was made to the latest forward-looking survey indicators for economic activity, which had posted strong declines and were signalling a contraction. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 388 |
it was stressed that the governing council had to be ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moved towards its aim in a sustained manner. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 177 |
upside risks to inflation included the heightened geopolitical tensions, which could raise energy prices in the near term, and extreme weather events, which could drive up food prices. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 859 |
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