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the price of a barrel of oil had risen by nearly 10% since the last meeting, favored by a greater global appetite for risk, the depreciation of the dollar and the continuous recovery of its demand. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 549 |
the implications of the outcome of the constitutional plebiscite were discussed, noting that, although this was an important milestone in the process, the road to a new institutional framework was long and would not be free of challenges. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 476 |
in this report, the board had updated the structural parameter estimates that were used to assess the state of the economy, their prospects and implications for monetary policy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 663 |
private consumption would regain momentum, although its level at the end of the projection horizon would be lower than in the previous estimate. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 820 |
as for the 100bp option, although it could be justified as a sign of greater concern about the risk scenarios being faced, its counterpart was that it provided less flexibility for the future. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 736 |
on the domestic front, it was noted that one element that had weighed significantly in recent analyses was the evaluation that the labor market behaved according to the rest of the economy, having succeeded in absorbing a significant increase in the labor supply causing no big rise in the unemployment rate and only a moderate slowdown in wage growth. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 867 |
the exchange rate had depreciated sharply (just over +20% since the last meeting), with high volatility. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 32 |
the entire board agreed that the evaluation of the macroeconomic scenario raised no doubts about the need to lower the mpr by 50 bp altogether. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 990 |
for the 2019-2020 period they had some changes, but all consistent with the projections in the current baseline scenario. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 676 |
in the labor market, workforce remained abundant, but most respondents did not foresee big changes in their staffing. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 234 |
the opinions gathered in the framework of the business perceptions report (ipn) confirmed a rebound of the economy, whose performance in many cases surpassed that of the previous year. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 833 |
the same behavior was observed in the case of firms (imce) across the different economic sectors. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 892 |
monetary incentives from central banks remained high, while many policymakers had reaffirmed their commitment to keep them in place, scale them up and/or adopt new measures if necessary. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 472 |
in domestic spending, private consumption indicators had continued to consolidate the expected adjustment path. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 201 |
the impulse that the chilean economy would receive from abroad would remain limited, matching the forecast in the june monetary policy report. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 745 |
this had led the market to anticipate a less contractionary monetary policy path. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 678 |
on the demand side, data on retail sales, imports of construction materials and capital goods, among others, again showed weak consumption and investment. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 959 |
nonetheless, it was noted that the application of new quarantines, lags in the recovery of the labor market and political tensions had significantly deteriorated consumer and, though somewhat less, business expectations. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 710 |
finally, the faster than expected advancement of the fiscal consolidation objectives was worth noting as a positive development in the domestic scenario. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 159 |
business (imce) and consumer (ipec) confidence remained in pessimistic ground. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 368 |
board members commented on the rationality of the assumption for the mpr’s trajectory as a reference for the board’s discussion. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 185 |
all these factors combined had led to a global appreciation of the dollar and a negative correction in stock markets. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 728 |
this latter factor was attributed to the weak performance of the last few years, which had decelerated wage growth and often led to freeze compensations during some quarters. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 735 |
however, it was stressed that there were doubts about what were the implications of this greater activity in terms of inflationary pressures. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 492 |
governor marcel, vice-governor vial, and board members garcía, naudon, and costa voted for raising the monetary policy interest rate by 75 basis points, to 1.5%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 505 |
the options of raising the mpr by 75 or 150bp seemed less plausible to the board, because they carried a surprise component that could be complex for the market to understand. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 168 |
the march imacec had risen 6.4% annually, having decreased only 1.6% with respect to february, despite the fact that in that month the number of quarantined people had soared to more than 80% of the national population. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 38 |
for example, the inflationary outlook in the united states was discussed, together with how an increase could lead to faster interest rate hikes in the us, affecting global financial conditions. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 101 |
all the board members agreed that the proper monetary policy conduct implied meeting the inflationary target efficiently, i.e., at the lowest possible cost in terms of activity. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 233 |
inactivity had risen substantially, which, together with the employment protection law, had contained an even greater increase in the unemployment rate, although indicators of underutilization had worsened further. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 266 |
these pressures had also increased by the rise in international inflation and the idiosyncratic depreciation of the peso. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 470 |
this would allow the fed to go ahead with its gradual process of lowering its benchmark rate, with one or two cuts of 25bp during this year. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 688 |
the fact that the increasing participation of non-residents in the ownership of local bonds during the past year could end up having effects on the evolution of interest rates if the fiscal situation changed was also discussed. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 707 |
its evolution had received opposite influences: on the one hand, from lower activity in china and, on the other hand, from inventory levels, which remained tight. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 278 |
the real exchange rate (rer) base 1986 = 100, had stood at 90.4 in june and, with the information at hand, estimates placed it near 91.6 in july. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 570 |
although the board considered it important to communicate the launching of the process of withdrawing the monetary stimulus, it also deemed it advisable to emphasize that monetary policy would remain expansionary for a long period of time. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 670 |
still, this diagnosis called for some caution, particularly because of the possibility that demand-side factors could have a greater impact on the recent evolution of this price. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 675 |
no country in the world had been spared, so most of them were experiencing significant drops in activity this year. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 144 |
on the expenditure side, retail sales and imports of consumer goods, among other indicators, continued to show a less marked deterioration in household consumption, validating the hypothesis that the first quarter contraction, particularly in durables, was rather a preview of the expected adjustment. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 918 |
this could have complex effect on exchange rate dynamics and commodity prices. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 141 |
regarding the domestic scenario, it was noted that the most relevant surprise of recent times had been the dynamism of private consumption, which exceeded the already high estimates of september. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 263 |
meanwhile, the global economic outlook was complex, given the high inflationary persistence worldwide and the rate hikes decided by the main central banks. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 128 |
this figure had been somewhat lower than the march estimate, while the weakening of the lines most closely linked to services, stood out, which was linked to the demand that was being affected by covid-19 containment measures. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 607 |
governor marcel, vice-governor vial and board members garcía, costa, and naudon voted for lowering the mpr by 25bp, to 1.75%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 108 |
in latin america, economic recovery was lagging, reflecting quite diverse epidemiological, economic and social realities, which also reflected differences in countries’ policy responses. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 105 |
central banks and governments had maintained their efforts or made additional economic policy announcements, holding on to their highly expansionary tone. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 35 |
in turn, the european central bank had raised its monetary policy rate by 50bp at its last meeting, and had intensified the restrictive tone of its statement, adding a significant increase in its inflation forecasts. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 839 |
moreover, despite a certain upturn in labor supply as seen in lower inactivity and more job postings on the internet, there was still a big mismatch between the supply of and demand for jobs, especially for lower skilled persons. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 537 |
the bank lending survey (bls) for the first quarter reported a more dynamic supply for smaller companies, which was partly related to a lower perception of risk in this segment, aided by the continuity of credit support measures. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 495 |
however, they agreed that it was very complex to explain this are herein referred to as males, including female member ms. rosanna costa. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 979 |
all the board members agreed that this option was totally consistent with the baseline scenario in the june monetary policy report and, in particular, with the monetary policy strategy outlined there. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 271 |
this program considers the strengthening of incentives for the provision of bank credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, and to non-bank credit providers. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 8 |
some board members said that the message of closing down under uncertain conditions seemed too risky in a scenario as complex as the current one, with a lot of unfolding events. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 737 |
furthermore, on the day of the meeting, the country had learned of chile’s sovereign risk rating downgrade. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 523 |
governor costa, vice-governor garcía and board members naudon, céspedes and novy voted for lowering the monetary policy interest rate by 50 basis points, to 9%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 968 |
the upturn was visible in the manufacturing and retail sectors, along with labor market information which, at the margin, was also more positive in some of them. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 279 |
exports remained weak, partly because of the poor performance of some trading partners and the impact of the trade war. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 853 |
the main constraints to their decisions had to do with the uncertainty of the sanitary situation, the evolution of demand and the political environment. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 899 |
meanwhile, costs had risen for a fraction of interviewees, who attributed this to factors such as shortage of inputs and/or products for sale. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 282 |
china had closed 2023 with negative inflation and weak demand, especially for consumer spending. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 758 |
there were also lower prospects for world growth and tightened financial conditions. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 375 |
it was added that the fed had increased its hawkish tone. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 937 |
in terms of inflation, beyond seasonal increases, the numbers remained contained in the developed world, as did its outlook. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 92 |
the board ruled that the plausible options were an mpr cut of 25, 50, or 75 basis points. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 371 |
another was that consumer loans were decelerating rapidly, suggesting a more cautious behavior of households, together with credit constraints that were perhaps becoming more stringent on the credit suppliers’ side. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 190 |
all this meant that it had become less necessary to hold on to the monetary impulse established when the economic cycle was at its lowest, so now the appropriate thing to do was to continue withdrawing it in order for inflation to converge to the policy target within its medium-term horizon. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 546 |
feedback from the ipn confirmed this picture. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 804 |
in the eurozone, inflation had continued to decline, although service inflation remain high. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 325 |
some board members noted that, in terms of their macroeconomic effects, both options were practically identical so, in essence, the decision was tactical. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 568 |
this, because although there was reason enough to think that the growth projection would be revised going forward, this derived in part from specific factors and it was still unclear how capable the economy was to resume a growth pace that would allow it to close the gap. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 404 |
the services cpiefe was still low, while the goods cpiefe had risen further. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 352 |
all the board members agreed that, as the downward risks in the local economy and particularly in inflation had intensified, the valid options for this meeting should be to either hold the mpr at 2.5% with an expansionary bias, or reduce it by 25 bp, also with an expansionary bias. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 866 |
all five board members agreed that, as the mpr approached its target level, tactical considerations took on greater prominence when evaluating monetary policy options. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 208 |
all the board members agreed that the main risk of this option was to take the market by surprise again, since the last two decisions had already done so. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 679 |
however, the level of consumption would remain below the previous forecast throughout the projection horizon, which explained the expected behavior of domestic demand. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 145 |
in the board’s view, reducing uncertainty was imperative in order to spur the economic recovery, reduce the probability of a recession and prevent unemployment from reaching high levels difficult to reverse. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 567 |
expectations for the monetary policy rate (mpr) contained in both the ees and the fbs continued to foresee it unchanged at is technical lower bound of 0.50% for a protracted period of time, while those implicit in the prices of financial assets anticipated a transitory cut to 0.25%. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 793 |
equally important were the scars that the pandemic would inflict on households and businesses—including the deterioration of their net worth—and its impact on the future dynamism of the economy. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 6 |
this latter view could be exacerbated by a decision to apply a 75bp reduction with a downward bias. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 329 |
germany, in particular, had disappointed again according to different data, with its evolution lagging somewhat with respect to other countries in the zone. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 857 |
governor costa and board members naudon, céspedes and soto voted for lowering the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points, to 5.75%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 653 |
the uk was stagnant in productive investment, amid generalized falls in different confidence indicators. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 612 |
the backdrop for this was higher uncertainty regarding several more structural global factors. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 104 |
in particular, it would place the mpr somewhat above the median of expectations, but within the corridor, which would give full credibility to the report’s diagnosis and forecasts while, at the same time, it would reassert the board decision to take every step necessary to ensure compliance with the inflation target. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 21 |
all the board members agreed that the options proposed reflected the need to speed up the pace at which the monetary restriction would be reduced. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 517 |
finally, the risks associated with the rise in long-term interest rates in chile and elsewhere were discussed. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 514 |
based on this corridor, to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target within the policy horizon, in a few months the mpr had to stand between 275 and 325 basis points above its level prior to this meeting (2.75%). | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 69 |
increased prices of fuels and some foodstuffs had raised inflation of the volatile component to 7.5% annually. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 165 |
by then, the initial impact on private consumption of the third pension savings withdrawal, which was preliminarily estimated to be less than for the previous two, could also be assessed. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 301 |
for this reason, they said, it was not strange that the focus was placed rather at the most appropriate time to start the process of withdrawal of the monetary stimulus and the differences were concentrated in periods very close to each other. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 648 |
incoming international data showed a continuing recovery, consolidating the outlook for this year. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 66 |
it was reiterated that this not mean that the exchange rate did not have an important role in the inflation targeting framework, since it was a relevant price in the economy, whose movements could have significant effects and which also provided valuable information on how things were going in the macroeconomic and financial scenario. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 680 |
the business cost outlook (imce) remained near record highs. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 900 |
it was noted too that, despite the temporary nature of some elements, data from the beginning of the year made it possible to project somewhat stronger growth in activity in 2024, as reflected in the growth range of the central ipom scenario. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 450 |
this change in the rate differential was generating uncertainty in a market where some medium and long-term investors were less present. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 68 |
thus, since the december meeting, the peso had appreciated and had become notably less volatile, reflecting the effects of the exchange rate intervention carried out by the bank. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 700 |
although the cds and embi had declined since the last meeting and long rates stood at low levels, it was undeniable that, as of the second quarter of this year, the dollar and longer-term interest rates were on an upward trend. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 483 |
meanwhile, in brazil and colombia the outlook was somewhat more encouraging, both with ongoing reforms that could result in greater dynamism going forward. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 729 |
preliminary information in august’s business perceptions report showed that the respondents continued to expect their businesses to improve growth in the second half of this year and over 2020, although their prospects had moderated, because of lower-than-expected results in the first half, and some sources of uncertainty externally and internally. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 734 |
all the board members agreed that at this point it was complex to assess the balance of these impacts, precisely because they were unfolding and were accompanied by higher-than-usual volatility. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 58 |
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