Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_chile

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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mining activity had declined from the previous month and year.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
157
at the same time, the outlook implicit in the prices of financial assets anticipated that the mpr would stand at 7.5% next december.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
269
in the same context, the stock market returns had worsened and the peso, with ups and downs, had appreciated.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
336
the evolution of several of its fundamentals —such as the lower cost of credit and the increase in the real wage bill— suggested that its recent moderation would not last long.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
586
on the one hand, the markets had undoubtedly taken the recent political scenario in stride.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
908
the option would always be present to pause and wait for more background data to enhance the diagnosis.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
14
in addition, it coincided with what the markets expected, avoiding surprises that could affect the correct transmission of the boards assessment of macroeconomic conditions and the expected path of inflation.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
582
primarily, its effects would be channeled through lower external demand and tighter financial conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
293
high-frequency figures for the second quarter — credit and debit cards transaction records (transbank) and imports data— showed that this spending component was stabilizing at the margin.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
34
about domestic credit, the bank credit survey of the first quarter 2018 had reported a strengthened demand in various segments—especially for consumer loans and commercial credit to big and real-estate companies—, together with marginal improvements in the supply of consumer and commercial loans for large companies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
706
in his opinion, the degrees of uncertainty were important, and just as more negative scenarios could not be ruled out, neither could more positive scenarios be dismissed.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
326
there was important news in the global scenario.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,024
886
it was said that, actually, the inflation expectations reflected in longer-term market prices had changed very little in response to the peso’s most recent appreciation.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
682
this would improve the current account of the balance of payments.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
931
contributing to this was the behavior of consumption, the fact that investment had picked up somewhat and that the labor market remained resilient.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
181
in this context, the outlook for growth (ees) for this year continued to be revised upwards (4% in july, 3.8% in june), while for the next two years they had changed little and stood at 3.8%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
80
the fundamentals of consumption, in general, showed a similar behavior to that of previous months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
497
however, medium-term expectations for investment remained less favorable, as suggested by the evolution of the stock market and uncertainty indicators, the abrupt deterioration of local financial conditions, as well as cash management decisions made by big companies.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
63
in this context, inflation expectations showed no big change.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
79
the unemployment rate showed no major changes, while the annual change in real wages remained negative.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
406
therefore, if this risk had intensified somewhat in the recent past, the probability of a scenario where monetary policy was a little more expansionary than previously thought might have increased.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
786
in any case, some related indicators had performed somewhat better than expected.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
311
in that context, real consumer and commercial loans posted changes of –1.3% and –3.7% in april, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
986
cpi data for may and june had been largely in line with forecasts in the june monetary policy report.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
821
in particular, because the futures for the fed funds rate indicated that they would be kept for a longer period and would be reduced more gradually than expected some time ago, while for the monetary policy rate (mpr), although it had changed in the meantime, the trajectory expected by market prices was similar to the one considered last december.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
33
in any case, all these variables remained well below pre-pandemic levels, while important risks remained concerning the performance of activity going forward, mainly considering the recent resurgence of covid-19 in several countries, and restated confinements in some places.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
296
in august, the seasonally-adjusted total and non-mining imacec had fallen compared to previous month, due to one-off factors that had affected educational services.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
62
although limited, activity and inflation brought some upward surprises which, coupled with the more positive tone of the external scenario, spurred some concerns about the speed of the economic adjustment and its implications for the convergence of inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
211
one board member thought it was appropriated to analyze the option of reducing the mpr by 150bp, but then added that it would be preferable to wait for the next mp report to implement such a change in the monetary policy strategy.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
339
most importantly, this had allowed to quantify the effect of the strong immigration flow of recent years on trend and potential growth, increasing both.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
542
june sectoral activity data (ine) showed a below-expected performance in some sectors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
56
overall, growth prospects had not changed significantly for 2024-2025.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
396
plus the more favorable response of the world markets to the first phase of the us-china trade agreement, coupled with early signs of stabilization or even improvement in developed economies.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
768
the us showed narrowing gaps, with investment and consumption fundamentals that remained solid, especially because of a seemingly tighter labor market.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
628
the contribution of services stood out, with annual growth of 20%, driven by personal services in particular, reflecting the consolidation of eased sanitary restrictions and the boost of the remaining resources from household support measures.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
764
meanwhile, universidad de chile fourth-quarter 2019 saw the unemployment rate for greater santiago rising up to 8.8% and slightly negative annual employment growth, influenced mainly by the annual contraction of salaried employment, in a context where administrative data, such as december’s contract termination notices, showed an incipient deterioration.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
545
for this meeting they considered three options: (i) raise the mpr by 100 basis points (bp); (ii) raise the mpr by 125bp; and (iii) raise the mpr by 150bp.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
340
in this board member’s view, this was consistent with the scenario in the report and with suitable degrees of flexibility to deal with risks in either direction.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
742
all this, despite the strong improvement in the terms of trade during this period.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
30
particularly, it was noted that understanding what this accumulation of lower pi records meant for the future inflation trajectory and for monetary policy decisions was a must.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
657
the median of october’s economic expectations survey (ees) yielded an estimated fall in gdp of 5.5% this year, albeit with a high dispersion of responses.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
241
in particular, it was striking that external and domestic bond issues had eased off considerably since march, considering they had experienced high dynamism in the first few months of the year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
324
in latin america, the decline in volatile components stood out, while core inflation was taking longer to decrease, given the slower progress of services inflation relative to goods inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
725
in cumulative terms, both measures were in line with forecasts.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
449
in the money market, the banks’ abundant liquidity in dollars kept the local cost of dollar financing contained.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
407
it was pointed out that the worsening of the economic outlook was more pronounced for emerging economies, particularly because the perception of risk had increased and those countries perceived as most vulnerable had suffered massive capital outflows.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
53
the evolution of both indicators had been lower than foreseen in the december report.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
200
in any case, the assessment of the macroeconomic scenario suggested that the inflationary pressures facing the economy were lower than they had been six months earlier.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
97
the recent operations of the finance ministry had affected performance of longer bonds.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
150
in any case, both large companies and smes perceived an increase in their need for working capital.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
194
particularly important was high corporate and government indebtedness and, probably, increased risk-taking in some sectors in search of higher returns after years of low rates.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
747
in china, there were doubts concerning the magnitude that the slowdown of activity could achieve and the effectiveness of its stimulus policies, coupled with medium-term risks that might continue to incubate.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
310
from a demand-side point of view, although on aggregate neither consumption nor investment showed any significant deviations, the larger drop in private consumption of durable goods stood out.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
7
the main central banks had continued to raise their benchmark rates, despite a mixed outlook for monetary policy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
805
the large-scale investment project surveys stood out, showing a significant increase in the amounts foreseen for the upcoming years.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
390
first-quarter gdp growth in the eurozone also slowed down from the quarter before, in line with market forecasts and activity indicators that had lately been unexpectedly low in general.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
245
about the labor market, various sources of information saw significant deterioration.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
18
it was discussed that, in this context, the economy was facing a particularly complex scenario of very significant risks.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
341
that only realized that it was on the right path and that information still had to be accumulated to assess whether the convergence of inflation to the 3% target had been consolidated.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
286
vice-governor garcía voted for raising it by 125bp.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
461
the bank of england had added 50 bps to its benchmark rate, amid high pressures from wages.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
656
real wages continued to falter, in a context of still low demand for workers: the internet job postings index was under its historical average and companies hiring expectations (imce) remained low, amid persistent pessimism among consumers (ipec) and entrepreneurs (imce).
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
363
about possible explanations for this behavior, it was mentioned that it was not unusual to see this kind of movements during episodes where the mpr began to be changed after a period of stability.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
940
the measures aimed at favoring market liquidity had also been effective, contributing to reducing money market spreads in both pesos and dollars.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
649
the movements of the former coincided with inventory reductions in the us, while in the latter they were mainly due to supply-side factors, including the markets’ reaction to opec announcements.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
15
and two, it could lead people to believe that the bank was too lax regarding its commitment with the inflation target.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
342
all the participants in the meeting agreed that the economy, both externally and internally, had behaved within the framework depicted in the baseline scenario of the last monetary policy report, although risks remained and had even varied on some fronts.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
798
although part of this increase is explained by the more volatile cpi items and the depreciation of the peso, inflation of those components of the basket that are most sensitive to the activity gap (i.e.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
873
all five board members agreed that the macroeconomic scenario in which the monetary policy decision was based was virtually a continuation of that in the september report, meaning that the economy had regained its ability to grow and its capacity gaps were narrowing.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
123
this positioned our economy near the positive sensitivity considered in the scenarios of that mp report.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
906
the uncertainty surrounding the brexit had intensified, with little time left for the parties to reach an agreement before the deadline of the actual departure.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
722
the central scenario of the march monetary policy report had revised upward the gdp growth forecast for 2023.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
110
it was said that it was important to understand the motives behind these expectations, specifically whether they responded to a judgment on the bank’s capacity to meet the inflation target or there were originated in a different view of the future evolution of the determinants of inflation..
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
31
on the credit side, lending conditions were still seen as favorable.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
664
regarding the former, it was clear that important progress was being made in this process.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
720
while it seemed impossible to foresee that there would be no associated problems, this did not mean that facilities could not be devised to generate such funding and mitigate the impact on the private sector.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
521
it was argued that neither risk scenario was imminent and neither dominated over the other.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
175
board member pablo garcía voted for cutting 25 basis points off the mpr, to 2.25%, as he believed that what should prevail in monetary policy decisions in general were the macroeconomic fundamentals, which, in his opinion, suggested that the previous cut had not been enough because activity and demand indicators showed less-than-expected growth for the next few quarters; inflation was still low and had surprised with lower numbers in a large group of services; plus the external scenario was gradually weakening.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
392
real wage growth remained at around 2.5% per year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
817
in this regard, one participant mentioned that it was important to note that, despite the good twelvemonth figures and the difficulty to interpret seasonally adjusted figures, activity remained weak, which was consistent with the meager creation of private salaried employment, low cost-side inflationary pressures and general information that had been collected for the business perceptions report.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
953
it was pointed out that in recent weeks the external scenario seemed less adverse for the emerging world.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
328
in the rest of these economies, the total figures had shown mixed movements, although core inflation remained contained or exhibited some moderation in the margin.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
126
in the latter, some impacts on bank credit to companies were already visible.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
4
moreover, new data on the consumption trajectory revealed a slower than expected speed of adjustment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
889
the internet job postings index and imce hiring expectations continued to reflect higher labor demand, although with some pullback in the latter in april.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
989
two years ahead, they were still around 3%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
726
actually, this caution was evident in the postponement of the normalization process, in light of new elements in the evolution of inflation and the interpretation of its fundamentals.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
414
expenditure fundamentals remained strong with high levels of confidence and a robust labor market.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
965
about the evolution of activity, there was consensus among the participants that its recent evolution reduced the risks of insufficient traction to ensure the convergence of inflation to 3% within the policy horizon.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
661
in the financial area, several banks surveyed reported less stringent lending conditions, reiterating also the low interest rate levels in place.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
9
board member céspedes voted for reducing it by 125 basis points.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
197
as for local financial conditions, there was agreement that they were still tight.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
435
given the medium-term implications of this scenario, the board opined that the monetary stimulus should begin to be reduced in the coming months and that by 2020 it would stand around its neutral level, which was estimated between 4% and 4.5%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
553
they all agreed that it was imperative to address these questions in order to possibly make adjustments to these measures.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
887
during the policy horizon, the different measures had revised upwards the expected mpr level.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
160
interest rates on commercial and mortgage loans had increased compared with data available at the previous meeting.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
637
the various measures of expectations available (i.e., taken from surveys and financial asset prices) placed it at 11.25% at the october meeting, and then peaked between 11.25% and 11.5% at december.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
950
administrative data showed a significant increase in termination notices and unemployment insurance claims, which was being partially cushioned by the measures announced by the government.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
799
this contrasted with the deterioration of business expectations (imce) and capital goods imports.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
88
for this reason, it was necessary for the bank to remain very vigilant of the evolution of the process and its effects on the markets.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
487