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on the one hand, it was consistent with the path judged necessary for inflation convergence in the report’s central scenario, and at the same time it allowed room for additional hikes of a smaller magnitude that could be calibrated with information of the months ahead. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 134 |
several board members pointed out that, while the decision of a 75bp hike might surprise the market, it was totally consistent with a scenario where inflation and projected growth were also higher than what the average analyst assumed. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 522 |
their behavior would be decisive for investment to be reactivated beyond large-scale public and private projects. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 422 |
as for commodities, the price of copper had remained virtually flat since the september meeting, combining inventory depletions and reduced imports globally. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 239 |
in the labor market, stability continued to prevail, although there were new layoffs reported in some companies and reduced availability of lower-skilled labor. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 996 |
the brent–wti average oil price had risen by 10% since the march meeting, owing mainly to the geopolitical conflicts. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 146 |
in contrast, they assigned greater relevance to the costs that could involve a decision that was not backed by a sufficient analysis and projections. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 218 |
as for the domestic financial market, it was pointed out that liquidity levels were still high, with interest rates aligned with the message of the mpr being kept at its technical minimum for an extended period and long-term rates that had fallen in response to the monetary policy announcements of the previous meeting. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 290 |
however, the high level of inflation and the greater persistence associated with its main determinants called for a more contractionary monetary policy to ensure such convergence. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 783 |
they also agreed to adapt the fcic, by opening a third phase covering an amount of us$10 billion in effect for six months. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 473 |
this had been especially noticeable in countries displaying a more controlled epidemiological situation, either due to the effectiveness of their sanitary containment measures or to the progress of their vaccination programs, which had allowed them to proceed with their reopening plans. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 315 |
all five board members agreed that the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its outlook made it clear that, in order to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target, it was necessary to lower the mpr. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 815 |
the pandemic continued to be a source of concern, but with somewhat reduced intensity. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 909 |
another factor had to do with geopolitical conditions. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 934 |
for example, if the international scenario deteriorated further, as had happened in the past, an additional monetary push could be required, due to its medium-term disinflationary impact. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 402 |
there were a number of factors at work here. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 510 |
on the other hand, activity figures confirmed that the recovery had been faster than expected, even in some services that strongly depended on human interaction. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 732 |
the consumer confidence index (ipec) remained in the pessimistic zone, but with some recent rebound. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 26 |
in the financial sector, some improvements in supply and demand conditions were reported. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 39 |
however, the validity of one or another path would only be solved in the light of the evolution of the economy. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 86 |
there was consensus that the accumulated information brought no surprises with respect to the last meeting and to expectations contained in the march report. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 47 |
several reasons were brought up to explain why this could be happening, including a different assessment of the neutral mpr and the expected monetary policy trajectory of the u.s. federal reserve. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 807 |
however, in the current circumstances, marked by inflation well above the 3% target, with upside surprises for several months and where everything indicated that inflation had become more persistent, it was very difficult for the bank not to respond strongly to this news. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 957 |
on the other hand, the global covid-19-related sanitary crisis that had broken out in recent weeks was becoming the main factor reshaping both the global and local scenarios. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 903 |
thus, while the data on the number of dependent contributors of the pension fund system (afps) suggested that formal salaried employment was already nearing its pre-pandemic level, ine data pointed to a milder rebound. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 526 |
the board decided, with the votes of governor marcel, vice-governor vial and board members garcía, costa and naudon, to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 25 basis points, to 2.75%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 933 |
all five board members agreed that the option of cutting 75bp off the mpr was fully consistent with the central scenario of the september mp report and the general monetary policy stance that had been delivered at the previous meeting. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 454 |
at the same time, there was downward pressure on inflation in the short term, a sharp deterioration in business and consumer expectations, and a significant expansion in commercial credit since the announcement of the stimulus measures. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 606 |
it was added that core inflation for goods could be responding to a delay in the pass-through of the exchange rate rise of the second half of the year to prices, in which case a reversal should be expected in the short term, provided that the exchange rate stayed longer at its current levels. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 941 |
the evolution of the local financial market had been marked by external and internal factors, with the latter predominating, possibly related to reduced local uncertainty. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 298 |
in this scenario, several central banks had adopted a less expansionary stance. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 702 |
incoming data on activity had surprised on the downside, with both regular consumption and investment being weaker than expected. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 142 |
most recently, the latter had been overshadowed by the coronavirus crisis. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 273 |
since the last meeting, the ipsa had fallen by nearly 5%, the sovereign risk premium (cds) had increased and the nominal 10-year interest rates (btp-10) showed no major variation. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 943 |
in the country, it was mentioned that the unfolding of the macroeconomic scenario was in line with the central scenario of the march mp report. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 223 |
the central scenario foresaw that the economy would keep improving, that mobility restrictions would not return to mid-2020 levels, and that the fiscal and monetary impulse would continue. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 154 |
towards the end of 2022 and the turn of 2023, markets had become more optimistic, betting on a smooth inflationary control and practically no recession. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 103 |
another member added that, if greater weight was given to risk management and the asymmetry of its costs, the 150bp option was the best, as it signaled more decisively the idea of going faster in raising the mpr and positioning it near the upper edge of the corridor. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 724 |
regarding the local economy, the state of capacity gaps was discussed, in particular the different signals that could be seen by observing the evolution of activity, the different components of demand and the evolution of cost and price pressures. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 369 |
however, if the tightness of external financial conditions persists, the medium-term effects on activity and inflation would be negative. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 502 |
the different measures of expectations for the monetary policy rate (mpr) i.e. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 44 |
in any case, preliminary information from the ipn revealed a drop in the number of transactions carried out in october, especially mortgages, with a tightening of lending standards, greater restrictions in terms and in the required down payment, among others. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 532 |
however, the latter’s reversal of recent days was also mentioned, in the midst of the discussion about the withdrawal of funds from the pension funds. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 106 |
vice-governor vial and board members garcía, naudon, and costa voted for raising the monetary policy interest rate by 150bp, to 5.5%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 558 |
for this reason, and because of its alignment with market expectations for the macroeconomic outlook of the coming months, it was an option that ensured credibility and effectiveness. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 259 |
on the monetary side, this included further interest rate cuts in some countries or the extension of unconventional plans, with actions concerning the pandemic being led by the fed and the european central bank. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 616 |
it was added that, however, the most important change was in risks, since the likelihood of scenarios of a more marked deviation of inflation had decreased significantly. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 114 |
a second dimension was a scenario in which different economies would accumulate inflation levels not seen in many decades. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 795 |
in general terms, incoming news in recent weeks tended to confirm the view of the macroeconomic scenario adopted at the may meeting, including the change in the monetary policy rate (mpr) trajectory anticipated at the moment. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 338 |
in the united states, despite the recent resilience, a slowdown in activity was expected in the coming quarters. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 155 |
the global growth outlook for 2023 remained weak, despite a small upward adjustment. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 186 |
on the day of the meeting, the metal was trading at around us$3.7 per pound. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 222 |
the us-china trade conflict had intensified, which, coupled with the cyclical state of the us economy and its difference from that of other developed economies, had caused a global appreciation of the dollar and a fall in commodity prices. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 162 |
this raised a note of caution, because while some countries had significantly reduced the number of cases, others were struggling with a significant increase. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 862 |
the board considered reducing the mpr by 25 or 50 basis points, quickly discarding the latter. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 87 |
interest rates remained low for all credit users. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 569 |
all of this occurred in a context in which headline and core inflation were still low, particularly in their components more closely linked to said gap. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 164 |
in the profile of activity during the year, a somewhat stronger-than-expected fourth quarter had been observed, confirming the transitory nature of previous quarter’s slowdown. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 90 |
in addition, all this was taking place in a local context where there was quite significant financial tension, amid an environment of uncertainty and volatility. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 843 |
two years ahead, for the second month in a row the median of the economic expectations survey (ees) was above 3% annually, with 70% of the respondents pointing to a value above 3%. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 945 |
in the u.s., the most recent data had been surprising again, with record-high figures that this high inflation was a persistent phenomenon across the board. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 775 |
one board member noted that, beginning with this report, the mpr corridor had been added to the monetary policy communication tools. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 762 |
accordingly, the median of the july economic expectations survey foresaw gdp growth in 2021 at 8.0% (7.0% in june). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 354 |
still, more respondents reported some improvement in their activities in december compared to the previous two months. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 748 |
for april, the market estimated that inflation would stand between 0.1% and 0.2%. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 29 |
in fact, it was recalled that, in the central scenario of the june report, it was anticipated that the mpr would remain below its neutral level throughout the entire policy horizon. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 840 |
on the contrary, there was still a way to go before the macroeconomy would signal that the process of inflation convergence to the target had been consolidated. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 544 |
pending the march figure, which was to be known the day after the meeting, the cpi’s annual variation had fallen to 11.9% in february, which was still well above the 3% target. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 287 |
it was noted that the volatility of the domestic macroeconomic scenario had decreased significantly since the december meeting, thanks to several factors combined, in particular the decline of the most violent episodes—and a lower level of disruptions in productive activities—and the extraordinary measures taken by the bank. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 727 |
as for inflation expectations, it was noted that they had risen for every source and every term, including the 24-month policy horizon. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 703 |
the board agreed that the main reason for not changing the mpr at this meeting was the consistency between the bank’s actions and their communication, especially in that the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus would be done gradually and with caution. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 626 |
accordingly, and with a less favorable external scenario after the excessive growth of 2021, the economy would expand at a rate below its potential in 2022 and 2023, with contractions in private consumption and investment. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 446 |
governor marcel, vice-governor vial and board members garcía, naudon, and costa voted for holding the mpr at 0.5%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 207 |
the close of the 2022 national accounts, which would be released in march, would give valuable information to assess the state of the adjustment the economy required to bring down inflation. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 466 |
regarding the labor market, again those surveyed did not intend to make changes in their staff in the near future, with wage pressures that were still generally contained, backed by increased migratory inflows for certain types of jobs according to the respondents' visions. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 605 |
this difference could be linked to the exchange rate appreciation of previous quarters, whose effects still dominated over those of the most recent depreciation. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 75 |
the board members agreed that a macroeconomic scenario where activity was above potential and inflation was speeding up, needed monetary policy to continue to go from an expansionary stance to a more neutral one. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 16 |
part of the difference was explained by the decline in service-related activities and another part by the impact of some on-off supply elements, related to the availability of fishery resources in the industry, the effect of a climatic shock and maintenance downtime in mining operations. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 428 |
increasing the mpr by 25 basis points was also consistent with signals previously delivered and internalized by the market. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 98 |
actually, our country had rapidly moved to phase 4 of the outbreak, which entailed a number of restrictions that would have immediate effects on the economy’s performance. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 960 |
in fact, 10-year us treasury rates had risen by nearly 70 basis points (bp) since the last meeting, to decade-long highs. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 485 |
kind of decision considering the developments in the macroeconomic scenario. | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 538 |
the data known since the publication of the december report pointed to somewhat higher than expected inflationary pressures. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 572 |
in addition, the risks in the external scenario were high and more drastic adjustments of interest rates in the developed world could not be ruled out, which, if materialized, would further deteriorate the external impulse relevant for chile. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 61 |
accordingly, they considered the most appropriate options to be (i) hold the mpr, or (ii) lower it by 25bp to 5.5%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 689 |
interest rates on uf-indexed mortgage loans had dropped from november, to 4.4%, in a context where the bank lending survey for the fourth quarter reflected still stringent supply conditions and further falling demand. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 615 |
the year’s gdp growth exceeded forecasts, ending 2021 with activity significantly outpacing pre-crisis levels and its estimated potential. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 976 |
the bank lending survey for the first quarter showed that credit supply and demand had generally continued to weaken in all portfolios. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 260 |
furthermore, there was agreement that the magnitude of the first move did not impose any conditions on those of the subsequent moves, which could be smaller. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 948 |
this was consistent with the fading out of some supply factors that had temporarily affected the performance of some sectors in the first half (e.g. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 518 |
moreover, this type of exchange rate movement showed above-average passthrough and persistence on inflation, given the idiosyncratic nature of the shock. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 779 |
long-term interest rates had shown mixed movements. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 46 |
although it had returned to one digit after several quarters, it remained quite high. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 527 |
one such challenge would be the capacity to implement a massive and efficient vaccination process, while following all sanitary measures, until the risks of contagion and its most severe impacts were well under control. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 377 |
accordingly, several central banks had intensified the shift towards the withdrawal of monetary stimuli. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 5 |
it could not be ruled out that these phenomena were affecting the price of some chilean financial assets. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 956 |
in core inflation, the fall had been more limited (to 10.3% annualized in april), which coincided with still high pressures on the services side. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 864 |
this could be done in two ways. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 861 |
fears about the performance of the world economy, the potential vulnerabilities of some banks and the evolution of credit in developed economies were particularly noteworthy. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 48 |
the reason for this was that in such a scenario inflation would fall gradually, and a relatively rapid decline in the mpr would allow the bank to promptly produce negative real rates. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 256 |
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