Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_chile

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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the last few weeks had been characterized by the markets’ assessment of the american economy’s growth and the actions of the federal reserve (fed).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
705
the evolution of consumption continued to be affected by these dynamics, in particular the sale of non-essential goods.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
921
the two-year nominal rates spike of nearly 110 basis points (bp) stood out, explained by factors such as the change in the economic and monetary policy outlook, especially after the publication of the june meeting minutes.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
158
the copper price had risen about 5% since then, driven by chinese imports that showed more dynamism in september while inventories continued to show some depletion in the margin.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
654
this had been compounded by the start of monetary normalization by the authorities in norway, new zealand, and various emerging economies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
822
in contrast, consumption had sustained the expected dynamism.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
43
this was much more consistent with the report’s baseline scenario and associated risks, allowing for greater certainty regarding the convergence of inflation to 3% in the policy horizon.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
189
the labor market behaved consistently with the trajectory of the cycle, the unemployment rate stood at 8.7% in the moving quarter ending in march, while the labor force was expanding steadily.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
869
instead, what was needed was to assess whether these shocks affected the persistence of inflationary dynamics over the policy horizon.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
987
in december 2022, headline and core annual inflation had been at 12.8% and 10.7%, respectively, both figures down from the previous month.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
467
on the other hand, in a context of high short-term inflation and a weak economy in the medium term, keeping inflation expectations in line with the target was essential for monetary policy to be able to deal appropriately with this scenario.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
257
this decline owed much to the effect of the slowdown in demand, which outweighed the impact of the continued tightness of the market.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
658
regarding local conditions, there was general agreement that there were no substantial differences with respect to forecasts in the september mp report.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
754
in the money markets, financing costs remain contained in both pesos and dollars, despite a reduction in dollar liquidity.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
632
in this board member’s view, this could be justified if it was kept in mind that, including the peso appreciation, the trends suggested that inflation was set to decline going forward, although it was recognized that there was not enough information.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
426
he recalled that in the past, shocks of this kind had generated a response of more—not less—expansionary monetary policy, despite the higher short-term inflation.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
288
it was noted that the effect of the higher oil price on the short-term inflation projections, without being negligible, was not a big factor in this risk assessment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
70
considering the frequency of the monetary policy meetings under the rules in place since 2018, this translated into the mpr needing to be raised by between 50 and 75 basis points (bp) over several meetings, making them the plausible options for this occasion.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
167
as for the latter, there was no doubt that the economy was adjusting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
102
among them, the cycle’s maturing process, which had taken quite long; political pressures in different places; the risk of a trade war; and financial stress.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
250
in particular, that it could generate an even greater tightening in local financial conditions —and there were no forecasts to quantify this effect— or it could be associated with a response to inflationary surprises that had no relation with core inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
832
but if consumption remained dynamic, beyond the adjustment in the automobile market, which was something anticipated and desirable, it was possible for inflation to resume its convergence trajectory as the effects of the greater monetary stimulus adopted in the previous meeting, so a new mpr reduction would be unnecessary.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
916
its immediate impact was severe, it was lasting more than previouly expected and its longterm repercussions were still uncertain.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
763
in the volatile component --also unexpectedly high--, the contribution of fuels and some specific items, such as tourist packages, continued to stand out.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
84
in the emerging world, china’s first-quarter gdp had remained as strong as the previous quarter and the mixed marginal numbers had continued to support the deceleration and rebalancing of activity foreseen for the next quarters.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
295
the business perceptions report, for which data had been collected up to october 18, reported that the business performance of most respondents had been similar to or somewhat better than the previous quarter, with results that were mostly in line with expectations.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
125
this region was facing the most complex situation, with long-standing doubts regarding the handling of the sanitary emergency and deep damage especially on employment, which pointed to a sluggish recovery.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
845
the board decided, with the votes of governor marcel, vice-governor vial, and board members garcía, costa and naudon, to reduce the mpr by 50 basis points, to 2.5%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
191
commercial banks had applied to nearly 95% of the funds available under phase 1 of the facility conditional on increased lending (fcic), and many had used up their full assigned amount.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
617
moreover, the economy was still immersed in a context where uncertainty was higher than it had been until a couple of years ago and where the prospects for investment and growth were constrained for the coming years.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
64
the consumer and business confidence indicators endorsed this scenario, standing in highly favorable territory.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
709
although some correction was to be expected, it was clear that on average they would be well above estimates of just a few weeks before.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
247
at its december meeting, the u.s. federal reserve (fed) had raised range of the fed funds rate by 50 basis points (bp), to 4.25%-4.5%, in the context of a still tight labor market, which continued to pose an important upward risk for inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
434
it was added that this evidence or feeling of capacity gaps in the labor market could be related, on the demand side, with a labor hoarding behavior on the part of companies, while, on the supply side, to the evolution of the labor supply and the participation of different components had been more dynamic than estimated, because, for example, of the strong contribution of immigrant workers.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
362
on the one hand, the somewhat stronger domestic demand, in a context where the higher copper price boosted up the terms of trade.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
215
in other words, adjusting again the rate based on partial and qualitative background could increase, rather than reduce, uncertainty in the economy if it was not clear how much the macro projections had changed and how deep and persistent the additional monetary stimulus was intended to be.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
879
until the time of the meeting, the effects on local financial markets had been limited.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
985
as for two-year inflation expectations, in both the economic expectations survey (ees) and the financial traders survey (fts) they remained at 3%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
652
second, the necessary consistency between exchange rate intervention and monetary policy limited the room for rate reductions over the coming months, as speculation on the latter could generate the kind of volatility the intervention sought to avoid.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
316
moreover, the prevailing vision was that not all the layoffs due to the pandemic would be reversed.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
489
in mexico, at the statistical cutoff date, the proposals announced by the newly-elected government generated uncertainty at the fiscal level, while the expansion projections for argentina had been cut due to the narrowing of monetary conditions, beyond the positive surprise from first-quarter gdp.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
89
headline inflation had reached 13.7% annually in september, slightly less than in august, while core inflation —the cpi minus volatiles— had risen to 11.1% annually.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
977
regarding the price of a barrel of oil, wti and brent showed opposite movements (of the order of +5.8 and -3.4%, respectively), significantly reducing the spread between the two.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
199
in this scenario, excessive tightening of local financial conditions could be counterproductive, and the board would keep a watchful eye on economic developments.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
277
there was agreement that the option of raising the mpr by 50bp did not seem consistent with the current macro framework.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
878
primarily, it showed that growth in activity had increased in recent months, particularly in the non-mining sectors.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
789
although some of this was due to some sector-specific factors, also noteworthy was the deceleration of consumption and a deterioration of its fundamentals, including the lower dynamism of private salaried employment, and that consumer expectations had fallen since early in the year.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
408
however, the deflationary effects of potential appreciations of their currencies would still be present and strong.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
865
the fall in commodity prices was stressed, affecting not only those products most sensitive to the economic cycle, such as copper, but also foods and energy, whose supply forces had been decisive in recent months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
148
on the other hand, the inherent pressures of the idiosyncratic depreciation that the peso had accumulated since october 2019 were still present.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
894
first, a shift from a coordinated global cycle to one that could be quite unsynchronized, especially between china and the united states.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
37
one board member estimated that in certain aspects the option of a 25bp reduction dominated over the 50bp option.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
776
some board members said that the possible negative effect on demand would dominate in the evolution of inflation, while in the opinion of other board members the effects on the productive capacity and the potential impact on demand of some proposals should not be ruled out, therefore the impact on inflation in the medium term was still uncertain.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
380
in the area of fiscal policy, it was mentioned that the proposed budget of the public sector for 2019, currently being discussed by the congress, was consistent with the fiscal consolidation plan announced at the beginning of this administration.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
851
also noteworthy were the improved capacity of companies to adapt to the sanitary restrictions, a positive flow of credit oriented to the worst affected companies, a substantial volume of support to households suffering income losses, and substantial progress in the covid-19 vaccination program.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
697
in his view, the risk of having an inflation rate below the target could become significant in the coming quarters.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
814
however, it was pointed out that this recovery was still very heterogeneous, which was especially evident in the labor market and left no doubt that there were still loopholes to be closed in the economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
904
the activity gap was significantly revised upwards when removing the transitory effect on activity in the transport sector.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
252
also, in the business perceptions report (ipn) of february, most of the respondents saw a tightening of financial conditions, mainly due to some increase in interest rates in certain segments—although they noted that they were still low by the usual standards— and greater difficulties in credit granting requirements.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
929
that is, the mpr would be kept at 11.25% until the state of the economy informed that the convergence of inflation to 3% was consolidated.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
611
at the same time, the cpi accumulated a somewhat smaller-than-expected increase, mainly in the non-volatile goods component.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
500
trend and potential growth, activity gap and neutral interest rate).
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
163
this scenario had been shaped amid low inventory levels, where replenishment was occurring gradually, and transportation costs ran high.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
280
all this occurred in a context in which cost pressures continued to be present, linked to the difficulties in the supply of goods, soaring transportation costs and/or the high prices of inputs and commodities.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
942
it was suggested that another reason that could explain this short-term volatility was the fact that the central bank of chile was one of the first to begin reducing its reference rate, with prospects that the reduction would continue in the future.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
596
in that sense, there were elements that interfered in that understanding.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
604
argentina had officially entered a recession in the third quarter of 2018 and partial figures for the fourth quarter pointed to a new contraction.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
217
december’s inflation had been at -0.1%, affected mainly by a fall in the prices of its most volatile items.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
395
meanwhile, the annual change in the stock of consumer loans continued to shrink in march, while mortgage loans continued to grow at around 8%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
997
all the board members agreed that the background information known since the october meeting was, for the most part, consistent with the decision announced at the time.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
475
inflation kept rising steadily, to more than 6.5% annually, due mainly to the exceptional expansion of domestic demand and the depreciation of the peso caused by local factors.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
203
trade tensions between the us and china had moderated somewhat, but with a limited impact on the markets.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
850
on the consumer side, the sale of durable goods, again led by automobile sales, kept performing more favorably than non-durables, whose imports were dynamic nonetheless.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
963
all the board members voted for adopting a set of extraordinary measures.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
982
it was noted that the scenario was still favorable in terms of global growth and financial conditions, however significant changes had been observed in commodity prices and exchange rates.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
445
consumer loans had continued to reduce their annual contraction (–14.6% real annual contraction in june), in response to abundant household liquidity, and flows in the mortgage portfolio were stable in the margin.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
507
since the last meeting, annual inflation had risen to 3% and the core measure (cpiefe) had remained at around 2.5%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
645
it was noted that the conduct of monetary policy was based not only on analyzing inflation, but it also had a component of economic growth.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
196
all five board members agreed that the option of holding the mpr at 1.75% dominated over any other.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
708
high inflation was having a significant impact on the incomes and expectations of economic agents.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
785
as for portfolio risk, between april and may the financial market commission data showed no significant change in bank arrears of 90 days or more.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
423
meanwhile, household demand remained weak —for the consumer and mortgage segments—, related to the users’ worsened income and/or employment conditions.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
683
in any case, global inflation was still high, as the persistence of the core data continued to indicate, and inflationary pressures remained quite significant.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
415
these developments occurred in the midst of still high cost pressures, as confirmed by preliminary data for the business perceptions report (ipn) of february 2022, where the persistence of procurement and product availability problems were widely mentioned by the companies consulted and continued to put pressure on margins, while still facing high demand.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
895
one board member pointed out that analyzing the option of making a small reduction to the mpr at this meeting could be valid.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
693
in particular, although inflation had closed 2018 somewhat below projections, it was adjusting in the foreseen direction.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
993
governor marcel and board members garcía, naudon and costa voted in favor of holding the mpr at 0.5%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
781
in previous meetings, this option had been justified mainly under a risk management argument to lower inflation that could affect its convergence to the goal in the policy horizon.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
400
governor marcel, vice-governor vial and board members garcía, naudon and costa voted for holding the mpr at its technical minimum of 0.5% while strengthening the policy orientation, noting that the mpr will be kept at that level over the entire policy horizon.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
132
in any case, in the medium term, inflation expectations remained at around 3%, even though in the shorter term they were below the bank’s projections.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
55
although this seemed to be largely explained by the high basis of comparison, another possibility was that, once the most difficult stage of the sanitary emergency was over and a sales had recovered, many companies had begun to reduce their future financial burden, either through amortizations or rescheduling.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
981
all the board members stressed the need to extend the bank’s powers and instruments to take action when confronting riskier scenarios, considering the high degree of uncertainty that still hovers over the spread of the pandemic, the performance of the domestic economy, and the dynamics of the financial markets.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
847
medium- and long-term fixed income rates had declined sharply.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
193
in his view, the need to lower the mpr so fast was tempered by the fact that inflation had begun to rise towards the target and the current-account balance measured at trend prices was high.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
696
there was agreement that the challenges for monetary policy were also considerable in this context.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
431
all measurements coincided in that the first cut would take place between the july and september meetings, although they differed as to its magnitude.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
620
investment, on the other hand, had been surprisingly strong, although growth was concentrated mainly in some particular sectors, such as renewable energies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
660
all five board members agreed that the background information accumulated since the last meeting indicated that the mp should be further reduced.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
388
however, it did raise a red flag, as it could somehow mean that the transmission of the idiosyncratic peso depreciation was not evolving with the intensity expected in december, or that disinflationary pressures were more acute than expected.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
177
the bank credit survey of the third quarter reported tighter conditions for all types of loans, as higher risks were perceived in all segments.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
859