Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_the_republic_colombia

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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999
specifically, those related to the demand pointed to private consumption continuing to have the favorable momentum that has been seen for the last two quarters.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
705
with respect to emerging economies, the effects of the european crisis have already begun to affect the major economies in emerging asia.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
921
a regular meeting of the board of directors of banco de la república was held in the city of bogotá on may 23, 2008.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,008
158
this was favored by the low interest rates and wide availability of credit.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
654
the average of core inflation indicators fell below the 3.0% target for the sixth consecutive month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
822
this slowdown would continue to contribute to the reduction of the current account deficit.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
43
nevertheless, the positive economic performance, the risk premiums that are still low and the favorable level of prices for some commodities should continue to contribute to the capital flows into emerging economies.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
189
overall, net exports contributed negatively (-2.2%) to gdp growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
869
(iv) something similar is happening with respect to the terms of trade (fed to a large degree by the price of petroleum), which have also reached unprecedented heights.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
987
however, colombia’s trading partners in the region continue to exhibit low performance of their economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
467
the momentum in private demand will continue to be the primary source of that growth, in terms of both household consumption and investment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
257
however, the rise in raw material prices, the increase in domestic demand and the improvement in economic performance worldwide suggest this trend will not intensify.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
658
energy related mining showed positive growth in petroleum production while coal production was affected by labor problems and environmental penalties.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
754
on the one hand, there are the developed countries with moderate growth, although the results for the us economy showed better than expected performance.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
632
cement production is down by 15.1% during the course of the year to may.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
426
both the average of those measurements and the inflation expectations are at or below the target (3%).in summary, the growth of the colombian economy was below 3% in the first quarter, but the monetary policy and fiscal actions that have been taken so far are expected to contribute to getting the output to go to its potential level over the course of the year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
288
this range width is due to uncertainty around the size of global slowdown and its impact on the colombian economy, as well as with respect to the recovery of works and the overcoming of some negative supply shocks currently affecting the industrial and mining sectors.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
70
given the high degree of uncertainty, the members of the board highlighted that it is difficult to determine the amount of spare capacity.additionally, the board members expressed their concern regarding the marked deterioration of the labor market.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
167
in the discussion, there were different views on the existing margin to continue reducing it.one member of the board voted in favor of maintaining the intervention rate unchanged.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
102
the slowdown and low level of growth in household consumption (3.1% in the second quarter) were particularly conspicuous.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
250
other supplies, perishable as well as processed, continue to present yearly adjustments of very high and increasing prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
832
medium and long-term government bonds valuated -22bp and -36 bp, respectively, during the four- week period ended march 16 and the following points were emphasized by the board of directors during its deliberations: the february figure for inflation, which was less than the rate forecast by the central bank’s technical team and by the market concerning many of the sub-baskets in the consumer price index the drop in core inflation indicators, following the increase in january the temporary effect el niño weather might have on price hikes the outcome for growth in 2009 as a whole and during the final quarter, which exceeded the technical team’s forecast available indicators of economic activity in january and february 2010, particularly those concerning retail sales and the demand for energy, which suggest faster first-quarter recovery than anticipated the expectations of industrialists and merchants with respect to economic performance in the coming months, which remain high the increase in monetary aggregates at rates between 7% and 8% the peso loan portfolio in the financial system, which continues to grow more than nominal gdp the performance of market interest rates in response to the decline in the central bank’s benchmark rate the impact of the exchange rate on inflation and on output growth in the tradable sectors interest rates on government bonds, which dropped in the case of medium and long-term bonds.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
916
according to the coffee federation, coffee production will probably have grown in the third quarter at a rate that is slightly above 20% annually.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
763
according to the monthly survey of market operators, total inflation anticipated by december and february 2013 would be approximately 3.5%, which is 10 bp less than the rate expected a month earlier.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
84
up to march, the principal reaction was in the rates on consumer lending (-165 bp), preferential loans (-152 bp) and micro-credit (-182 bp).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
295
imports rose 0.9% annually, a figure that is lower than what was registered the month before (1.6%).with respect to inflation expectations, according to the bank’s monthly survey of financial market analysts, inflation expected for december of this year is 2.2% while the expectations for the coming 12 months are at 2.9%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
125
on those same dates, the annual increase in consumer lending went from 0.6% to 1.5% and from 9.3% to 4% for commercial loans.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
845
as to deposits, the shift towards certificates of deposit continued throughout the month.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
191
the information on retail trade, consumer confidence, and the survey of economic expectations by banco de la república suggest a slowdown of consumption and private investment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
617
this was the result of a rise in tradable and non-tradable basket prices after the exclusion of foods and regulated items.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
64
in this regard, the most significant risks derive from the existence of several indexation mechanisms for prices and salaries, and the probable effects of the changes in the us and europe's monetary policy on the exchange rate and the conditions for external financing of the economy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
709
the average for all of them was at 2.48%, 4 bp below the datum for the previous month and the lowest level since october 2010.the annual change in the ppi remained in negative territory in april (-2.4%) due to the decline in the local component (produced and consumed) since the imported component rose.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
247
with respect to the united states, the 2.0% growth (a/q) for the third quarter of 2010 was slightly above that registered for the second quarter of the same year, 1.7% (a/q).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
434
bogota , december 30, 2010
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,010
362
the forecasts show that it will begin to converge towards its target in the second semester of 2016.meanwhile, the adjustment of domestic demand facing the impact in the terms of trade has been lower than expected, exhibiting reinforcement in the last quarters of the year.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
215
the inflation expectations detected in the quarterly and monthly surveys conducted by the central bank at the beginning of july continue to show declines and are situated within the long-term target range set by the board of directors.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
879
the employment rate for household heads remains at levels above 74%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
985
during the month, international organizations such as the imf and the world bank forecast negative global economic growth in 2009.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
652
something similar happened with expectations for production three months out.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
316
however, these results contrast with the indicator for total retail sales, which declined 0.3% annually (excluding cars, the dip was 0.2%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
489
on the other hand, economies like mexico, chile, ecuador, peru and venezuela go on growing at a good pace, although some of them with increases below their true potential.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
89
in asia, china has some signs of recovery but india and south korea, etc.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
977
eventually, this temporarily will make the central bank a net debtor.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
199
under these conditions, household consumption has continued to show strong performance, especially in relationship to the purchases of durable goods.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
277
the cumulative 12- month increase in total exports is 21.1%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
878
on the other hand, the mortgage portfolio exhibited an annual 16.9% growth in may.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
789
(iii) the international prices of basic products remain at high levels and encourage the national income of the producing countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
408
the average of core inflation completed one semester increasing, reaching 3.65%.14.inflation expectations by market analysts and those derived from public debt bonds to 2, 3, and 5 years are within a range of 3.1% and 3.6%.in all, the slowdown that started by the end of 2014 from an output level that was close to the full use of productive capacity is expected to continue in 2015.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
865
the board of directors is mindful of the risks associated with peso appreciation in an atmosphere of weak external demand, and will continue to monitor the exchange market carefully.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
148
there have been reductions during this same period of: -182 bp for mortgage loans,  -171 bp for consumer loans, and -188 bp for construction loans.the levels of real interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, preferential loans, ordinary commercial ones and commercial lines of credit as well as loans for construction in september were below their historical averages as calculated since 2000.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
894
with this information, we calculate that the colombian economy grew between 3.7% and 4.3% in 2013 with 4.1% as the most probable percentage.information for 2014 is still very scarce and preliminary.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
37
the growth in some emerging economies, in turn, slowed down with respect to what was registered in 2012.in the united states, preliminary data for the fourth quarter of 2013 show positive growth led by private consumption and exports.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
776
they also highlighted that gas price subsidies, which have provided relief to consumers, are unlikely to be sustainable.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
380
for all of 2014, the growth range for output remains between 3.3% and 5.3% with 4.3% being the most probable figure financial variablesbank loans (n/ and f/c) registered an annual growth rate of 12.8% in march, which is slightly higher than the level seen in the previous month (12.4%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
851
total exports in dollars (ciiu classification) declined 18.5% during the year to date at september 2009 with respect to the same period in 2008.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
697
the indicators for orders and inventory show deterioration in the sector, as expectations for production three months out.several of the figures for commerce and construction suggest slowdowns in these sectors as well.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
814
if these forecasts take place, in 2015 external demand for colombia would grow at a lower rate, somewhat below the one for 2014the lower international prices of oil and other commodities have pressured world inflation downward.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
904
(vii) the risks to inflation stemming from expectations have become more moderate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
252
public debt securities with maturities of more than one year also rose in price.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
929
on the demand side, the fall in car sales suggests a slowdown in the consumption of durables for that monthin january, annual growth of corporate credit slowed down again, due to the slower pace of increase of direct external credit.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
611
other factors such as devaluation of the “strong bolívar” and the loss of confidence in the venezuela market among colombian exporters make it difficult to be optimistic about an increase in exports should trade relations be reestablished fully.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
500
this would make the convergence of inflation to the target slower and more difficult and require increases in the interest rate in the future that could coincide with a pronounced slowdown in expenditure and output decisionthe board of directors ofbanco de la república, by majority, decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp to 5.75%.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
163
the cpi for tradables excluding food and regulated prices, in turn, was at 0.6% (annual variation) compared to 0.4% the previous month.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
280
finally, inflation expectations derived from the tes curve for 2-, 3-, and 5-year maturities have risen slightly since january to converge at 3.0% growththe indicators available for the last quarter of 2013 suggest that the gdp expanded at a rate that was below the rate registered for the third quarter.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
942
the tax reform helped to reduce some of these prices, a fact that has a temporary impact on the annual change in the cpi.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
596
in attendance were alberto carrasquilla barrera, minister of finance and public credit; juan josé echavarría, governor of the central bank; and board members gerardo hernández correa, ana fernanda maiguashca olano, josé antonio ocampo gaviria, carolina soto losada, and juan pablo zárate perdomo.these minutes contain a summary of the outlook on the macroeconomic situation by the technical staff of the central bank (section 1), followed by a review of the main discussion regarding monetary policy by the board of directors (section 2).further detail on the macroeconomic situation prepared by the technical staff from the central bank will be presented in themonetary policy report for december 2018and in thestatistical annex (only available in spanish) contextuntil the third quarter, external conditions favored the performance of the colombian economy.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
604
the increases have been particularly significant in the case of agricultural products, including coffee, and in goods exported by colombia, such as coal and gold financial variables m3 is up by about 18% since september.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
217
this behavior has been much more accentuated in oil-producing countries such as colombia.this has taken place within a context of weak global economic activity, driven mainly by the economy of the usa.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
395
the different inflation indicators are within the target range of 3% +/- 1 percentage point, gdp growth is close to its historical level, and the confidence surveys on consumers, manufacturers and merchants show important reductions.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
997
some inflation basket items continue to show lower price increases.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
475
the indicators on hand with respect to economic activity during the year to date, particularly in terms of retail sales and the demand for energy, also point to added momentum in the economy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
203
in their opinion, the figures of economic activity were still very weak, with no evidence of recovery.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
850
with the preliminary data available at october 20, inflation expectations based on government bonds negotiated at one, five and 10 years showed variations of 88 bp, 1 bp and -50 bp compared to the average figures for september, and were 3.71%, 4.55% and 4.58%, respectively.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
963
this is well below the rate witnessed last year for the same period (6.9%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
982
(iii) the industrial confidence index is still at high levels while consumer confidence has remained on a rising trend for several months and is at one of the highest historical levels.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
445
however, despite the negative annual rates, direct external borrowing was up compared to the level in july.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
507
the latter one is above the long range goal announced by the board (2% - 4%).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
645
the united states is growing at a slow rate, europe continues to contract, and japan seems to be starting to react to the strong monetary stimulus measures.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
196
the available information suggests that, as happened last month, part of the observed increase in consumer prices was due to the impact of the tax reform (by the change in the vat, the green tax, and the liquor act).measures of inflation expectations by economic analysts to december 2017 and to 12 and 24 months lowered, as those embedded in public debt bonds to 2, 3, and 5 years.regarding the external context, the most recent indicators for the advanced economies suggest improvement of their activity.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
708
just like in the previous month, what contributed the most to this drop was price variation in perishable foods, with potatoes and fruits exhibiting absolute price falls.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
785
they consider inflation will continue converging to its target, as it has done up to now, and what is relevant at this time is to provide a greater stimulus to the recovery of growth.one member of the board voted in favor of maintaining the intervention rate unchanged.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
423
the annual variation in prices for non-tradable goods excluding food and regulated goods rose from 4.7% in july to 4.9% in august.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
683
s/he said that, despite the fact that there are signs of recovery, the figures for economic activity are still weak and could be bolstered by a further reduction of the intervention rate, considering that inflation forecasts continue exhibiting convergence to the 3.0% inflation target in 2018     decisionthe board of directors ofbanco de la repúblicadecided by majority to maintain the benchmark interest rate unaltered at 4.5 %.the decision to maintain the intervention rate at 4.5% was approved by six board members.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
415
investment in construction, both buildings and works, also is expected to grow considerably, as indicated by cement sales and building permits for march.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
895
the component for current economic conditions, as well as that for expectations, fell.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
693
these rates were 4 bp, 15 bp and 2 bp less than those in december, in that order.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
993
the negative behavior of the industry and commerce, the increase of its stock, and the reduction in the level of its orders, as well as the deterioration of the confidence indexes, the wilting of investment expectations and the feeling of consumers confirm the aforesaid.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
781
some directors add that the labor market shows signs of weakening by registering in july 2024 a national unemployment rate of 9.9%, higher by 0.3 pp than the 9.6% level seen in july 2023.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
400
downward pressure came from the annual variation in food prices, which was 3.9% in march versus 4.4% in february.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
132
the other three measures of basic inflation also decreased, and the average of the four indicators was 2.63%.along the year and until september, an inflation of 3.08% has stockpiled, a figure that already surpasses the long-term goal of 3.0%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
55
as for construction, cement production posted an annual drop of 4.8%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
981
there are some symptoms of a recovery in some of the economies on the periphery although it is still at a very slow pace.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
847
the last few months also saw fewer liabilities subject to reserve requirements (lsr).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
193
it is estimated that in 2015 the deficit and its financing be lower, partly as a result of an expected reduction in direct foreign investment (especially in oil), and by a less dynamic portfolio investment.as for the domestic context, the new data for the fourth quarter of 2014 suggest that domestic demand continued to be dynamic, and that the net exports would have subtracted more than was expected to the output.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
696
according to the figures released by dane, industrial production in august of this year was 3.3% less than in august 2008.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
431
the annual change in prices for this basket rose by 31 basis points over the previous figure on record.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
620
compared to the month before, those derived from 2 and 3 year paper declined while the 5-year ones rose growththe latest information available indicates that some areas of domestic demand were expanding at a moderately positive rate in the third quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
660
food products, beverages and clothing were the items that registered the largest reduction in volume.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
388
a regular meeting of the board of directors of banco de la república took place in the city of bogotá on friday, july 29, 2016.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,016
177
however, this trend was reversed in the last few days, despite the increase in the fed’s interest rate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
859