gtfintechlab/bank_of_thailand · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 28 774	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
five members deemed maintaining the policy rate at 2.75 percent per annum as justified, with varying rationales.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	549
tourism activity was solid and was expanded going forward.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	476
headline inflation would remain at a high level throughout 2022, largely unchanged from the previous forecast.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	663
the committee assessed the thai economy to continue gaining traction on the back of domestic demand, while external demand slightly slowed down.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	820
moreover, with the saving-investment gap, investment still had the potential to expand further.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	736
nonetheless, downside risks remained given that economic growth might be lower than expected if domestic demand did not exhibit a strong recovery.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	867
the committee will closely monitor such developments and take into account growth and inflation outlooks in deliberating monetary policy going forward.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	32
however, the main impact on the thai economy would be the indirect spillover effects on energy and commodity prices.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	990
the overall growth outlook for thailand’s trading partner economies improved.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	676
capital inflows were expected to continue, while risks to financial stability warranted close monitoring.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	234
furthermore, the ability of businesses in certain sectors to absorb rising costs had diminished, particularly those with large shares of fuel and commodities in their cost structure, including transportation, petroleum and chemicals, and construction.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	833
although pressures on the baht would abate in tandem with the projected current account deficit in 2021, the committee would continuously expedite the new foreign exchange ecosystem to improve the structure of the thai foreign exchange markets over the medium term.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	892
inflation could exceed 5 percent in the second and third quarters, mainly attributed to the low-base effect of crude oil prices and government assistance measures in 2021.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	472
the bangko sentral ng pilipinas increased the policy rate to stabilize inflation, while bank indonesia raised the rate to curb financial market volatilities.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	201
the european central bank (ecb) would hold its policy rate at least through the end of 2019, which was longer than market expectations.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	745
meanwhile, despite some slowdown in the investment of saving cooperatives, there was an increase in the interconnectedness within the system of saving cooperatives.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	678
meanwhile, downside risks remained largely unchanged.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	959
however, subsequently more subdued outflows and lower-than-expected government bond issuance announcement for the third quarter helped lower yields to some extent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	710
some members were of the view that the decline in npls of sme loans in export-related sectors could be partly attributed to export growth seen in firms of various sizes.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	159
the committee would thus closely monitor the progress of vaccine development and distribution.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	368
third, financial measures, particularly the special soft loan facility that helped alleviate liquidity constraints for the affected groups and debt restructuring which helped address elevated debt problems, would be more effective and targeted than the reduction in the policy rate which was a blunt instrument.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	185
increased risks to the global economic recovery might affect thai exports of goods.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	728
risks to the inflation projection tilted to the downside consistent with the risks to economic projection.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	735
government spending also picked up following the implementation of the budget act.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,012	492
the baht had depreciated against the us dollar mainly due to the strengthening of the us dollar following concerns about the global economic slowdown and the fed tightening.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	505
meanwhile, the euro area exhibited slightly weaker momentum, with exports slowing down in line with global trade volume and further restrained by private sector confidence that was weighed down by political issues.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	168
regarding public expenditure, government consumption expenditure, particularly compensation of civil servants, was projected to increase at a slower pace given policy to replace vacant job positions with contract workers.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	38
meanwhile, public expenditure might not provide sufficient momentum for the economy due to budget disbursement constraints and the delay in the enactment of the annual budget expenditure act, b.e.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	101
regarding the thai financial market, short-term government bond yields declined partly due to higher demand.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	233
despite the much stronger outturn in the first quarter, economic growth for 2012 was expected to remain at 6.0 percent.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	266
in this regard, maintaining the current level of monetary policy accommodation would be conducive to returning inflation to target over the medium term, although this process might take some time.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	470
this was evident in a persistently high asset growth among saving cooperatives, as some large saving cooperatives increasingly engaged in taking deposits and lending to other cooperatives, as well as increased investment in both equities and debt instruments.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	688
another was a potential deterioration in soil fertility following severe dry season.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	707
the us dollar would likely weaken, with the regional currencies appreciating against the us dollar.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	278
the global economic recovery would be supported by the covid-19 vaccination progress, additional large-scale economic stimulus measures in the us, and improving exports in accordance with the global economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	570
exports of manufacturing goods expanded more than expected, partly due to special factors such as the consolidation of production location of certain products to thailand and an increase in demand for some of thailand’s export goods.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	670
in addition, the new issuance of government bonds related to the 2-trillion -baht public investment was expected to be further delayed after parliament dissolution.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	675
nonetheless, after the us announced tariffs on chinese imports and designated china as a currency manipulator, investors sold off assets in asia due to the region’s high interconnectedness with china.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	144
medium-term inflation expectations remained anchored within the target.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	918
at the same time, uncertainties pertaining to the global economic outlook and formation of the new government posed downside risks to the thai economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	141
key risk factors included (1) prolonged sanctions against russia, which would push up energy prices and costs in the long run, and (2) faster-thanexpected policy rate hikes by major central banks, particularly the federal reserve, in response to rising inflationary pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	263
it is broadly in line with the targets of the trading partners, and thus should help maintain thailand’s competitiveness.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	128
therefore, a broader range of indicators would be needed to reflect the recovery across sectors and income groups, particularly labor market indicators such as the number of unemployed and underemployed workers, as well as income loss.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	607
however, there remained a need to closely monitor developments of the pandemic going forward.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	108
the committee considered the benefits and costs of policy alternatives and viewed that the current accommodative monetary policy stance remained conducive to the continuation of economic growth and should support the rise of headline inflation to target in a sustainable manner, although the process could take some time.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	105
but the slowdown in china could weigh on the exports of some consumption goods, including rubber and cassava.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	35
the committee would stand ready to utilize an appropriate mix of available policy tools in order to support the economic recovery and ensure financial stability.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	839
this would squeeze business liquidity and slow down employment in the services sector.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	537
in addition, political developments, such as the future stability of the eu and the us presidential election, could affect confidence and the economic outlook of thailand’s trading partners going forward.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	495
some of these would be financed by (1) the emergency decree authorizing the ministry of finance to raise loans to solve problems, to remedy and restore the economy and society, with the budget limit of 1 trillion baht, and (2) the revision of the 2020 budget according to the budget expenditure transfer bill.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	979
meanwhile, short-term money market rates remained close to the policy rate and mediumto long-term thai government bond yields were around the same levels as in the previous meeting.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	271
the thai economy was projected to grow at 4.2 and 4.0 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	8
while these measures were in a smaller scale than those in the past, they were designed to be more targeted and taken into account financial stability consideration.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	737
the thai economy would contract more than the previous assessment.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	523
meanwhile, demand-side inflationary pressure remained low, as reflected by subdued core inflation which was consistent with a gradual economic recovery.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	968
the thai baht depreciated since the last meeting, owing to the scaling down of asset purchase by the federal reserve (fed) and domestic political situation.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	279
the committee would therefore closely monitor the impacts of these regulations especially on the private consumption outlook, as some immigrant workers had left the country, and the impacts on the inflation outlook due to a possible wage rise as labor market tightened.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	853
given high level of competition in both credit and deposit markets, commercial banks were reluctant to lower their interest rates.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	899
however, there were more vulnerabilities in the financial system, especially related to debt servicing capability of households and smes due to the prospect of economic slowdown.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	282
under the worse scenario, the omicron outbreak would be widespread despite efforts to accelerate vaccination rates.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,021	758
the mpc agreed that uncertainties surrounding the global economic outlook remained, while the thai economy continued to expand on the back of strong domestic demand.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	375
increased risk in global financial markets from sovereign debt problems in the euro area contributed to a decrease in foreign investment in the thai equity and bond markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	937
furthermore, the medium-term inflation expectations were unaffected by the new inflation target specifying headline inflation within the range of 1-3 percent as it was well-anchored at around 2 percent.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	92
with the recovery of the thai economy only just beginning and considering potential implementation delays in government stimulus measures, an accommodative monetary policy stance was deemed appropriate in supporting economic growth in the period ahead.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	371
members assessed that the japan crisis would have limited impact on the growth of the thai economy.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	190
nevertheless, loans extended to smallto-medium enterprises (smes) picked up and broadened to a broader range of businesses, which reflected ongoing economic growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	546
despite moderating merchandise export growth attributable to impacts from trade protectionism measures between the us and china, tourism started to show signs of improvement thanks to a gradual rise in the number of chinese tourists.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	804
moreover, exports are subject to downside risks from softer-than-assessed recovery of the global economy particularly the chinese and asian economies.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	325
likewise, central banks in several other countries also signaled policy rate increases, particularly where economies have returned to pre-covid levels and inflation has been above the central bank’s target.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	568
growth of saving cooperative assets subsided following moderation in deposits and their members’ equities.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	404
short-term measures to accelerate the procurement and distribution of appropriate vaccines would prevent the outbreak from being prolonged and reduce economic costs.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	352
the chinese economy moderated primarily from exports and investment, though domestic demand should be an important driver of growth going forward on the back of high employment, favourable household and corporate income, and government measures to support investment.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	866
one member noted in addition that volatile exchange rate may put upward pressure on inflation in the periods head.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	208
the nominal effective exchange rate (neer), however, depreciated due to a rapid appreciation in the japanese yen.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	679
consumers exercised more caution partly as a result of rising debt burden at a time when the impact of government consumption stimulus measures dissipated.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	145
nonetheless, recovery continued to be weighed by financial health of both real and financial sectors.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	567
the chinese and asian economies have expanded well on the back of strong domestic demand and improving prospects of exports, together with further support from japanese government stimulus measures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	793
the outlook for private investment was further supported by greater certainty regarding the prospects of public investment projects with further progress on projects under the eastern economic corridor monitored going forward.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	6
the committee agreed that the global economic outlook has improved, though several risks in major economies should be monitored: (1) deleveraging process in the euro area has not completed and there has been limited progress in the resolution of fiscal and financial sector issues.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	329
meanwhile, the chinese economy softened more than expected in the second quarter, pointing to more sluggish recoveries in other asian economies than previously anticipated, especially as chinese manufacturing inventories remained high.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	857
however, government consumption would increase due to the budget restructure with an increase in the share of current expenditure for fiscal year 2020.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	653
advanced economies were expected to expand mainly on the back of private consumption.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	612
the committee viewed that headline inflation was expected to edge up in 2018 following a domestic demand recovery and an increase in excise tax.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	104
although government bond yields rose, em risky asset prices also increased owing to the economic recovery underpinned by the improved pandemic situation.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	21
the balance of risks to the global economy remained tilted to the downside, given the risks surrounding china’s economy and financial markets as well as monetary policy divergence among advanced economies.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	517
- the committee viewed that the most important issue for the thai economy at present was to accelerate containment of the outbreak and prevention of the spread, especially the procurement and distribution of effective vaccines in a timely manner.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	514
this facilitated a comparison with forecasts of most other agencies which did not incorporate the effects of said scheme.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	69
the global economy recovered at a slower pace than previously assessed, as the impact of china’s economic slowdown further materialized.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	165
safe-haven asset prices increased in august in line with rising volatility in the global financial markets due to risk-off sentiments after the us and china announced additional retaliatory tariff and non-tariff measures.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	301
additional economic indicators, such as incomes of self-employed workers in non-agricultural sectors, should thus be monitored for better insights.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	648
the overall financial system remains resilient, however the committee recognized initiatives to accelerate targeted measures, particularly responsible lending measures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	66
driven by a strong post-flood economic recovery, foreign investment in equity and bond markets increased, pushing medium- and long-term government bond yields lower.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	680
the committee viewed that the new foreign exchange ecosystem should be expedited to address structural problems in the foreign exchange market and encourage more balanced capital flows.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	900
up to the date of this meeting, the effect on the thai financial markets was not evident, but the development, particularly in the exchange rate market, warranted close monitoring in the periods ahead.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	450
a significant portion of first-car loans has also been extended to car dealers rather than consumers, thus limiting wider impact.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	68
the committee assessed that the thai economy continued to gain traction on the back of domestic demand despite a slowdown in external demand.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	700
headline and core inflation were slightly below the previous assessment but remained stable.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	483
the impact of the omicron outbreak on economic activities was expected to be more contained than previous waves.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	729
meanwhile, fiscal stimulus measures should be expedited.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	734
the chinese economy expanded at a robust pace in the first quarter of 2023 following its reopening, though latest indicators suggested some moderation in economic activity.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	58

five members deemed maintaining the policy rate at 2.75 percent per annum as justified, with varying rationales.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

549

tourism activity was solid and was expanded going forward.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

476

headline inflation would remain at a high level throughout 2022, largely unchanged from the previous forecast.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

663

the committee assessed the thai economy to continue gaining traction on the back of domestic demand, while external demand slightly slowed down.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

820

moreover, with the saving-investment gap, investment still had the potential to expand further.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

736

nonetheless, downside risks remained given that economic growth might be lower than expected if domestic demand did not exhibit a strong recovery.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

867

the committee will closely monitor such developments and take into account growth and inflation outlooks in deliberating monetary policy going forward.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

32

however, the main impact on the thai economy would be the indirect spillover effects on energy and commodity prices.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

990

the overall growth outlook for thailand’s trading partner economies improved.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

676

capital inflows were expected to continue, while risks to financial stability warranted close monitoring.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,013

234

furthermore, the ability of businesses in certain sectors to absorb rising costs had diminished, particularly those with large shares of fuel and commodities in their cost structure, including transportation, petroleum and chemicals, and construction.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

833

although pressures on the baht would abate in tandem with the projected current account deficit in 2021, the committee would continuously expedite the new foreign exchange ecosystem to improve the structure of the thai foreign exchange markets over the medium term.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

892

inflation could exceed 5 percent in the second and third quarters, mainly attributed to the low-base effect of crude oil prices and government assistance measures in 2021.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

472

the bangko sentral ng pilipinas increased the policy rate to stabilize inflation, while bank indonesia raised the rate to curb financial market volatilities.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

201

the european central bank (ecb) would hold its policy rate at least through the end of 2019, which was longer than market expectations.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

745

meanwhile, despite some slowdown in the investment of saving cooperatives, there was an increase in the interconnectedness within the system of saving cooperatives.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

678

meanwhile, downside risks remained largely unchanged.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

959

however, subsequently more subdued outflows and lower-than-expected government bond issuance announcement for the third quarter helped lower yields to some extent.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

710

some members were of the view that the decline in npls of sme loans in export-related sectors could be partly attributed to export growth seen in firms of various sizes.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

159

the committee would thus closely monitor the progress of vaccine development and distribution.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

368

third, financial measures, particularly the special soft loan facility that helped alleviate liquidity constraints for the affected groups and debt restructuring which helped address elevated debt problems, would be more effective and targeted than the reduction in the policy rate which was a blunt instrument.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

185

increased risks to the global economic recovery might affect thai exports of goods.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

728

risks to the inflation projection tilted to the downside consistent with the risks to economic projection.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

735

government spending also picked up following the implementation of the budget act.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,012

492

the baht had depreciated against the us dollar mainly due to the strengthening of the us dollar following concerns about the global economic slowdown and the fed tightening.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

505

meanwhile, the euro area exhibited slightly weaker momentum, with exports slowing down in line with global trade volume and further restrained by private sector confidence that was weighed down by political issues.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

168

regarding public expenditure, government consumption expenditure, particularly compensation of civil servants, was projected to increase at a slower pace given policy to replace vacant job positions with contract workers.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

38

meanwhile, public expenditure might not provide sufficient momentum for the economy due to budget disbursement constraints and the delay in the enactment of the annual budget expenditure act, b.e.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

101

regarding the thai financial market, short-term government bond yields declined partly due to higher demand.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

233

despite the much stronger outturn in the first quarter, economic growth for 2012 was expected to remain at 6.0 percent.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

266

in this regard, maintaining the current level of monetary policy accommodation would be conducive to returning inflation to target over the medium term, although this process might take some time.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

470

this was evident in a persistently high asset growth among saving cooperatives, as some large saving cooperatives increasingly engaged in taking deposits and lending to other cooperatives, as well as increased investment in both equities and debt instruments.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

688

another was a potential deterioration in soil fertility following severe dry season.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

707

the us dollar would likely weaken, with the regional currencies appreciating against the us dollar.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

278

the global economic recovery would be supported by the covid-19 vaccination progress, additional large-scale economic stimulus measures in the us, and improving exports in accordance with the global economic recovery.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

570

exports of manufacturing goods expanded more than expected, partly due to special factors such as the consolidation of production location of certain products to thailand and an increase in demand for some of thailand’s export goods.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

670

in addition, the new issuance of government bonds related to the 2-trillion -baht public investment was expected to be further delayed after parliament dissolution.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

675

nonetheless, after the us announced tariffs on chinese imports and designated china as a currency manipulator, investors sold off assets in asia due to the region’s high interconnectedness with china.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

144

medium-term inflation expectations remained anchored within the target.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

918

at the same time, uncertainties pertaining to the global economic outlook and formation of the new government posed downside risks to the thai economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

141

key risk factors included (1) prolonged sanctions against russia, which would push up energy prices and costs in the long run, and (2) faster-thanexpected policy rate hikes by major central banks, particularly the federal reserve, in response to rising inflationary pressures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

263

it is broadly in line with the targets of the trading partners, and thus should help maintain thailand’s competitiveness.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

128

therefore, a broader range of indicators would be needed to reflect the recovery across sectors and income groups, particularly labor market indicators such as the number of unemployed and underemployed workers, as well as income loss.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

607

however, there remained a need to closely monitor developments of the pandemic going forward.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

108

the committee considered the benefits and costs of policy alternatives and viewed that the current accommodative monetary policy stance remained conducive to the continuation of economic growth and should support the rise of headline inflation to target in a sustainable manner, although the process could take some time.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

105

but the slowdown in china could weigh on the exports of some consumption goods, including rubber and cassava.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

35

the committee would stand ready to utilize an appropriate mix of available policy tools in order to support the economic recovery and ensure financial stability.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

839

this would squeeze business liquidity and slow down employment in the services sector.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

537

in addition, political developments, such as the future stability of the eu and the us presidential election, could affect confidence and the economic outlook of thailand’s trading partners going forward.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

495

some of these would be financed by (1) the emergency decree authorizing the ministry of finance to raise loans to solve problems, to remedy and restore the economy and society, with the budget limit of 1 trillion baht, and (2) the revision of the 2020 budget according to the budget expenditure transfer bill.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

979

meanwhile, short-term money market rates remained close to the policy rate and mediumto long-term thai government bond yields were around the same levels as in the previous meeting.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

271

the thai economy was projected to grow at 4.2 and 4.0 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

8

while these measures were in a smaller scale than those in the past, they were designed to be more targeted and taken into account financial stability consideration.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

737

the thai economy would contract more than the previous assessment.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

523

meanwhile, demand-side inflationary pressure remained low, as reflected by subdued core inflation which was consistent with a gradual economic recovery.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

968

the thai baht depreciated since the last meeting, owing to the scaling down of asset purchase by the federal reserve (fed) and domestic political situation.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

279

the committee would therefore closely monitor the impacts of these regulations especially on the private consumption outlook, as some immigrant workers had left the country, and the impacts on the inflation outlook due to a possible wage rise as labor market tightened.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

853

given high level of competition in both credit and deposit markets, commercial banks were reluctant to lower their interest rates.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

899

however, there were more vulnerabilities in the financial system, especially related to debt servicing capability of households and smes due to the prospect of economic slowdown.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

282

under the worse scenario, the omicron outbreak would be widespread despite efforts to accelerate vaccination rates.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,021

758

the mpc agreed that uncertainties surrounding the global economic outlook remained, while the thai economy continued to expand on the back of strong domestic demand.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

375

increased risk in global financial markets from sovereign debt problems in the euro area contributed to a decrease in foreign investment in the thai equity and bond markets.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

937

furthermore, the medium-term inflation expectations were unaffected by the new inflation target specifying headline inflation within the range of 1-3 percent as it was well-anchored at around 2 percent.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

92

with the recovery of the thai economy only just beginning and considering potential implementation delays in government stimulus measures, an accommodative monetary policy stance was deemed appropriate in supporting economic growth in the period ahead.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

371

members assessed that the japan crisis would have limited impact on the growth of the thai economy.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

190

nevertheless, loans extended to smallto-medium enterprises (smes) picked up and broadened to a broader range of businesses, which reflected ongoing economic growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

546

despite moderating merchandise export growth attributable to impacts from trade protectionism measures between the us and china, tourism started to show signs of improvement thanks to a gradual rise in the number of chinese tourists.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

804

moreover, exports are subject to downside risks from softer-than-assessed recovery of the global economy particularly the chinese and asian economies.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,015

325

likewise, central banks in several other countries also signaled policy rate increases, particularly where economies have returned to pre-covid levels and inflation has been above the central bank’s target.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

568

growth of saving cooperative assets subsided following moderation in deposits and their members’ equities.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

404

short-term measures to accelerate the procurement and distribution of appropriate vaccines would prevent the outbreak from being prolonged and reduce economic costs.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

352

the chinese economy moderated primarily from exports and investment, though domestic demand should be an important driver of growth going forward on the back of high employment, favourable household and corporate income, and government measures to support investment.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

866

one member noted in addition that volatile exchange rate may put upward pressure on inflation in the periods head.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

208

the nominal effective exchange rate (neer), however, depreciated due to a rapid appreciation in the japanese yen.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

679

consumers exercised more caution partly as a result of rising debt burden at a time when the impact of government consumption stimulus measures dissipated.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

145

nonetheless, recovery continued to be weighed by financial health of both real and financial sectors.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

567

the chinese and asian economies have expanded well on the back of strong domestic demand and improving prospects of exports, together with further support from japanese government stimulus measures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

793

the outlook for private investment was further supported by greater certainty regarding the prospects of public investment projects with further progress on projects under the eastern economic corridor monitored going forward.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

6

the committee agreed that the global economic outlook has improved, though several risks in major economies should be monitored: (1) deleveraging process in the euro area has not completed and there has been limited progress in the resolution of fiscal and financial sector issues.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

329

meanwhile, the chinese economy softened more than expected in the second quarter, pointing to more sluggish recoveries in other asian economies than previously anticipated, especially as chinese manufacturing inventories remained high.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

857

however, government consumption would increase due to the budget restructure with an increase in the share of current expenditure for fiscal year 2020.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

653

advanced economies were expected to expand mainly on the back of private consumption.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

612

the committee viewed that headline inflation was expected to edge up in 2018 following a domestic demand recovery and an increase in excise tax.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

104

although government bond yields rose, em risky asset prices also increased owing to the economic recovery underpinned by the improved pandemic situation.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

21

the balance of risks to the global economy remained tilted to the downside, given the risks surrounding china’s economy and financial markets as well as monetary policy divergence among advanced economies.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

517

- the committee viewed that the most important issue for the thai economy at present was to accelerate containment of the outbreak and prevention of the spread, especially the procurement and distribution of effective vaccines in a timely manner.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

514

this facilitated a comparison with forecasts of most other agencies which did not incorporate the effects of said scheme.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

69

the global economy recovered at a slower pace than previously assessed, as the impact of china’s economic slowdown further materialized.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

165

safe-haven asset prices increased in august in line with rising volatility in the global financial markets due to risk-off sentiments after the us and china announced additional retaliatory tariff and non-tariff measures.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

301

additional economic indicators, such as incomes of self-employed workers in non-agricultural sectors, should thus be monitored for better insights.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

648

the overall financial system remains resilient, however the committee recognized initiatives to accelerate targeted measures, particularly responsible lending measures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

66

driven by a strong post-flood economic recovery, foreign investment in equity and bond markets increased, pushing medium- and long-term government bond yields lower.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

680

the committee viewed that the new foreign exchange ecosystem should be expedited to address structural problems in the foreign exchange market and encourage more balanced capital flows.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

900

up to the date of this meeting, the effect on the thai financial markets was not evident, but the development, particularly in the exchange rate market, warranted close monitoring in the periods ahead.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

450

a significant portion of first-car loans has also been extended to car dealers rather than consumers, thus limiting wider impact.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

68

the committee assessed that the thai economy continued to gain traction on the back of domestic demand despite a slowdown in external demand.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

700

headline and core inflation were slightly below the previous assessment but remained stable.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

483

the impact of the omicron outbreak on economic activities was expected to be more contained than previous waves.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

729

meanwhile, fiscal stimulus measures should be expedited.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

734

the chinese economy expanded at a robust pace in the first quarter of 2023 following its reopening, though latest indicators suggested some moderation in economic activity.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

58