gtfintechlab/bank_of_thailand · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 28 774	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
with regard to monetary policy, the federal reserve (fed) still gradually tightened its policy stance.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	134
(2) with heightened inflationary risks, delaying the policy normalization could entail greater costs on the economy going forward.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	522
nonetheless, the period at which headline inflation was expected to turn positive might be delayed as a result of more subdued demand-side pressure and slower-than-projected global oil price recovery.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	422
in this meeting, the committee assessed that the economic recovery has continued to gain more traction, while the upside inflationary risks continued to increase.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	239
in addition, some other risks still warranted close monitoring, including (1) trade tensions that could be more intensified and prolonged than previously assessed, especially trade negotiations between the us and china, as well as the likelihood that the us would increase tariffs on all auto imports in the future, (2) uncertainties regarding the timeline and outcome of brexit, and (3) geopolitical risks that could become widespread and intensified, particularly recurring protests in several countries which exhibited common patterns.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	996
meanwhile, there were risks of rising demand-side inflationary pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	146
most market participants expected the mpc to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at this meeting.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	218
in addition, most central banks kept the policy interest rates unchanged over the intermeeting period except for the federal reserve (fed) which raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.00–1.25 percent at the meeting on 13-14 june 2017.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	290
the value of merchandise exports improved from the previous assessment mainly on the back of rising global crude oil prices, while export volume would expand at a slightly better pace than previously estimated.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	783
asian economies would gain further traction on account of domestic demand that was partly driven by the public sector.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	473
the baht subsequently corrected and stabilized due to higher demand for the us dollar from domestic businesses.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	315
the committee viewed that these developments reflected a stronger economic expansion.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	815
in addition, the private sector resumed the issuances of unrated bonds in the fourth quarter of 2017, but most of these bonds were shortterm debts issued by large real-estate companies with sound financial positions.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	909
the global economic recovery was projected to continue at a rate close to the last meeting’s assessment.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	934
the euro area expanded more slowly than expected as a result of higher inflation and the end of stimulus packages in some member countries.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	402
the committee viewed that the global financial markets remain highly uncertain in the period ahead due to factors such as (1) directions of monetary policy in advanced economies and (2) trade protectionism that could further intensify and affect the global economy as well as capital flows, which would then put pressure on asset prices and exchange rates particularly in emerging markets with vulnerable economic fundamentals and high interconnectedness with china and europe.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	510
financial stability remained sound overall but there remained a need to monitor some pockets of risks that might pose vulnerabilities to financial stability in the future.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	732
nonetheless, the mpc judged that the pressure would not be as severe as in 2008, since the conflict was expected to be contained and unlikely to result in war.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	26
the prospects of an economic downturn this year led to increased financial system vulnerabilities.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	39
in addition, some committee members expressed concerns over the recent escalation of geopolitical risks.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	86
the committee thus voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point from 1.00 to 0.75 percent effective on 23 march 2020.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	47
in their policy deliberation, the committee discussed key considerations underpinning policy decision.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	807
in deliberating further policy rate increases looking ahead, the committee will take into account economic and inflation outlook as well	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	957
a low-for-long interest rate could contribute to a build-up of financial fragilities, for example in the form of elevated household debt and more widespread search-for-yield behavior leading to underpricing of risks in borrowing and investment activities.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	903
the people’s bank of china additional measures concurrently such as financial assistance for households or smes and wage subsidy schemes.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	526
nevertheless, the committee stands ready to adjust the policy interest rate should there be significant changes to economic and inflation developments.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	933
such vaccination progress, along with continued financial and fiscal support, would help bolster the global economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	454
a few members noted that shortages of raw material and labor were constraining some sectors and, in the context of the elevated inflation expectations, would drive pass-through of costs to final goods and services prices in the period ahead.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,012	606
at the same time, the lower-than-expected third-quarter gdp outturns continued to show a recovery of economic activity, notably in private consumption of services, despite merchandise exports having been muted.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	941
hence, the committee saw a need to closely monitor developments of those risks and the impacts on the growth outlook of trading partners, in particular economic activities as reflected in labor market indicators.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	298
nevertheless, rising inflationary pressure prompted many countries, especially those in asia, to pursue tighter monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	702
supply-side shocks related to the el niño phenomenon could also put upward pressures on food prices and inflation more than expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	142
domestic financial conditions were mostly unchanged from the previous meeting, as private sector funding costs via commercial banks and bond markets remained broadly unchanged.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	273
overall, members were in agreement that dynamic technological and productivity improvements would enable thai exports to better respond to changing global demand, and therefore would truly reinforce the competitiveness of the exports sector in the long-run.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,015	943
in the fourth quarter of 2014, the thai economy continued to recover modestly, with the momentum of private consumption and investment being softer than expected due in part to weaker private sector confidence and less-than-expected public investment.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	223
going forward, additional relocation of production base to thailand, for some industries such as hard disk drives, would continue to lend further support to merchandise exports.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	154
the thai economy expanded well in the first quarter of this year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	103
in particular, business model adjustments as well as the upskilling and reskilling of labor to suit the post-covid environment should be facilitated.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	724
financial and credit measures should accelerate the distribution of liquidity to and reduce debt burden for businesses and households additionally impacted by the new outbreak in a targeted manner.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	369
meanwhile, border trade has been expanding well, commanding a rising share of total exports.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	502
the government attempted at the same time to strike a balance between its economic growth and financial stability objectives, and this resulted in some improvements in market confidence.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	44
inflation returned to the target band and continued trending upward.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	532
- the committee assessed that upside risks to inflation increased.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	106
credit rating agencies have also reaffirmed thailand credit rating and deemed the thai economic fundamentals to be strong.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	558
thus, scenario analyses are needed to evaluate these risks and impacts on the thai economic recovery.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	259
the committee would closely monitor exchange rate developments as well as potential impacts on the economy going forward.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	616
the committee viewed that structural factors partly contributed to inflation becoming less responsive to economic growth despite the economy growing at potential.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	114
(3) agricultural products such as rice saw diminishing market shares, from 25 percent in 2003 to 13 percent currently.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	795
the annual averages of headline inflation in 2019 and 2020 were projected to be lower than the previous forecast and below the lower bound of the inflation target.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	338
despite continuous improvement in recent economic indicators in several countries, overall economic activities remained significantly lower than the pre- pandemic level.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	155
workers in thailand could move quite easily across sectors in response to changing demand in different situations.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	186
in deliberating their policy decision, the committee discussed the need for accommodative monetary policy taking into consideration costs and risks as summarized below.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	222
the government was therefore expected to implement area-specific containment measures and suspend the test & go registration for foreign tourists only temporarily.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	162
inflation in the global economy and domestic economy inflationary pressure increased in many regions in line with high oil and commodity prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	862
both private consumption and investment remained robust with continuing momentum.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,012	87
risks to the global economic recovery increased.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	569
the financial system remained sound overall, but vulnerabilities increased in some pockets given the sharp economic contraction that potentially led to income shocks, falling asset prices and tighter financial conditions.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	164
china and asian economies showed sustained growth, mainly on the back of exports, manufacturing production, and increased consumer confidence.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	90
in addition, the committee viewed that raising the public debt ceiling to 70 percent of gdp would allow the government to continue expediting additional policies to support economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	843
advanced economies would expand at a moderating pace this year but would be stabilizing in 2020 due to improvements in the manufacturing sector and services employment, favorable private consumption, as well as more fiscal stimulus.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	945
one member noted that interest rate differential played a part in affecting capital inflows, though the strength of this relationship varies over different phases of the business cycles and with financial market sentiments.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	775
by reducing pressures on the baht and addressing structural problems in the thai foreign exchange market through expediting the new foreign exchange ecosystem, capital flows would become more balanced.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	762
the mpc saw the need to closely monitor the development of credits extended by both commercial banks and specialized financial institutions to ensure a smooth transition towards a more balanced financial condition, consistent with a sustained economic recovery.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	354
however, favorable labor market conditions would bolster private consumption and drive the economy going forward.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	748
thai government bond yields declined immediately after the policy rate cut.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	29
macroprudential and microprudential measures could only address risks in connection with loans and financial institutions under loans.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	840
as a result, deleveraging could occur only slowly.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	544
financial stability remained sound overall, but there were pockets of risks that might lead to the build-up of vulnerabilities in the financial system going forward.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	287
if the us economy exhibited robust recovery with rising inflation, us monetary policy could be normalized faster than expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	727
also, some members reiterated the necessity of continued monitoring of the household debt situation, as the rate of new debt creation still outpaced income growth.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	703
as global price pressure softened in line with weaker global demand, a few central banks, such as in south korea, china, as well as the eurozone, eased policy with a view to containing downside risks to growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	626
meanwhile geopolitical risks could affect the fragile economic recovery and warranted close monitoring.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	446
nevertheless, there remained downside risks stemming from the external front, such as us economic and foreign trade policies as well as geopolitical risks, and domestically from private demand that might not be as strong as expected should the recovery in purchasing power still not broaden out.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	207
in contrast with domestic demand performance, external demand was weaker than previously assessed, as reflected by more-than-expected contraction in exports and export production.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	466
the committee viewed that, should economic expansion continue and inflation move within the target, the need for currently extra accommodative monetary policy would start to be gradually reduced, while the need to have policy space to cushion against possible risks to growth in the future would be increasing.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	605
the baht depreciated against the us dollar and underwent volatile movements in line with other regional currencies due to concerns over trade protectionism and demand for us dollar by some thai firms for overseas investment in the recent period.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	75
fiscal uncertainties continued to pose significant downside risks to growth.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	16
furthermore, better-than-expected outturns in the first quarter of 2022 and the likelihood of additional stimulus measures by the chinese authorities further suggested that the chinese economy would expand in line with the previous projection.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	428
thus, the committee saw a need to closely monitor (1) developments in trading partner economies together with the aforementioned risks in order to evaluate their impacts on the thai economy that could occur through various macroeconomic linkages, and the thai baht.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	98
however, the spread of covid-19 to various countries in asia caused significant slowdown in asian economic activities.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	960
for one member, the crisis in japan called for an interest rate pause.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	485
most committee members judged that a more accommodative monetary policy stance would contribute to the continuation of economic growth and should support the rise of headline inflation toward target.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	538
although risks to inflation have increased, the global economy maintained its recovery momentum as reflected by improvements in the global purchasing managers’ index, particularly in the g3 economies where recovery had become more evident.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	572
this could be achieved through the special loan facility for businesses and asset warehousing.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	61
this is attributable to (1) the 10-year us treasury yield now exceeding 3 percent, a four-year high, thanks to increased us inflation expectations and stronger us economic performance relative to other countries especially europe, (2) uncertainties surrounding us trade policies, and (3) geopolitical risks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	689
the committee saw failure to negotiate public debt resolution in the us as a key risk that could have implications for global financial market volatility going forward.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	615
moreover, a few members stressed the importance of close monitoring of geopolitical situations and the ongoing assessment of the ensuing impacts on the global economy.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	976
on the domestic front, factors included (1) a greater clarity pertaining to political developments and factors attracted more equity as well as both short- and long-term bond inflows to thailand.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	260
with regard to domestic demand, the ongoing expansion began to be more broad-based.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	948
2) some pockets of risks in the financial system might pose vulnerabilities to financial stability in the future.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	518
nevertheless, the overall impact on the financial institution system and the bond markets would be limited, as financial positions of commercial banks remained robust and were capable of withstanding potential deterioration in loan quality in the future.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	779
unemployment, while remaining low overall, recently saw some increases among the new entrants which might reflect structural unemployment.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	46
price pressure moderated in line with the weaker global economic outlook, and inflation was forecasted to remain close to the midpoint of the target range going forward.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	527
these developments prompted investors to continually reduce their holdings of risky assets including investments in emerging market economies, particularly countries with vulnerable economic fundamentals such as argentina and turkey.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	377
the resulting risk aversion weakened the thai baht, reversing appreciation pressures in july.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	5
despite signs of moderating external demand, domestic demand continued to expand.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	956
accounting for the government’s digital wallet scheme, headline and core inflation in 2024 were projected to be - the committee deemed the overall recovery to be intact, both including and not including the impact from the government’s digital wallet scheme.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	864
the committee viewed that the policy rate should be normalized to the level that is consistent with sustainable growth in the long term, and that monetary policy normalization should be done in a gradual and measured manner consistent with the growth and inflation outlook in the period ahead.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	861
regarding interest rate expectations prior to this meeting, continued increases in short-term money market rates and the short-end of the government yield curve showed that the market had already priced in a policy rate hike.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	48
given the recession concerns, investors expected the federal reserve and european central bank to slow down the pace of their interest rate hikes and might even have to cut the interest rates in 2023.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	256

with regard to monetary policy, the federal reserve (fed) still gradually tightened its policy stance.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

134

(2) with heightened inflationary risks, delaying the policy normalization could entail greater costs on the economy going forward.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

522

nonetheless, the period at which headline inflation was expected to turn positive might be delayed as a result of more subdued demand-side pressure and slower-than-projected global oil price recovery.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

422

in this meeting, the committee assessed that the economic recovery has continued to gain more traction, while the upside inflationary risks continued to increase.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

239

in addition, some other risks still warranted close monitoring, including (1) trade tensions that could be more intensified and prolonged than previously assessed, especially trade negotiations between the us and china, as well as the likelihood that the us would increase tariffs on all auto imports in the future, (2) uncertainties regarding the timeline and outcome of brexit, and (3) geopolitical risks that could become widespread and intensified, particularly recurring protests in several countries which exhibited common patterns.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

996

meanwhile, there were risks of rising demand-side inflationary pressures.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

146

most market participants expected the mpc to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at this meeting.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

218

in addition, most central banks kept the policy interest rates unchanged over the intermeeting period except for the federal reserve (fed) which raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.00–1.25 percent at the meeting on 13-14 june 2017.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

290

the value of merchandise exports improved from the previous assessment mainly on the back of rising global crude oil prices, while export volume would expand at a slightly better pace than previously estimated.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

783

asian economies would gain further traction on account of domestic demand that was partly driven by the public sector.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

473

the baht subsequently corrected and stabilized due to higher demand for the us dollar from domestic businesses.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,013

315

the committee viewed that these developments reflected a stronger economic expansion.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

815

in addition, the private sector resumed the issuances of unrated bonds in the fourth quarter of 2017, but most of these bonds were shortterm debts issued by large real-estate companies with sound financial positions.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

909

the global economic recovery was projected to continue at a rate close to the last meeting’s assessment.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

934

the euro area expanded more slowly than expected as a result of higher inflation and the end of stimulus packages in some member countries.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

402

the committee viewed that the global financial markets remain highly uncertain in the period ahead due to factors such as (1) directions of monetary policy in advanced economies and (2) trade protectionism that could further intensify and affect the global economy as well as capital flows, which would then put pressure on asset prices and exchange rates particularly in emerging markets with vulnerable economic fundamentals and high interconnectedness with china and europe.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

510

financial stability remained sound overall but there remained a need to monitor some pockets of risks that might pose vulnerabilities to financial stability in the future.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

732

nonetheless, the mpc judged that the pressure would not be as severe as in 2008, since the conflict was expected to be contained and unlikely to result in war.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

26

the prospects of an economic downturn this year led to increased financial system vulnerabilities.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

39

in addition, some committee members expressed concerns over the recent escalation of geopolitical risks.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

86

the committee thus voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point from 1.00 to 0.75 percent effective on 23 march 2020.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

47

in their policy deliberation, the committee discussed key considerations underpinning policy decision.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

807

in deliberating further policy rate increases looking ahead, the committee will take into account economic and inflation outlook as well

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

957

a low-for-long interest rate could contribute to a build-up of financial fragilities, for example in the form of elevated household debt and more widespread search-for-yield behavior leading to underpricing of risks in borrowing and investment activities.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

903

the people’s bank of china additional measures concurrently such as financial assistance for households or smes and wage subsidy schemes.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

526

nevertheless, the committee stands ready to adjust the policy interest rate should there be significant changes to economic and inflation developments.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

933

such vaccination progress, along with continued financial and fiscal support, would help bolster the global economic recovery.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

454

a few members noted that shortages of raw material and labor were constraining some sectors and, in the context of the elevated inflation expectations, would drive pass-through of costs to final goods and services prices in the period ahead.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,012

606

at the same time, the lower-than-expected third-quarter gdp outturns continued to show a recovery of economic activity, notably in private consumption of services, despite merchandise exports having been muted.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

941

hence, the committee saw a need to closely monitor developments of those risks and the impacts on the growth outlook of trading partners, in particular economic activities as reflected in labor market indicators.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

298

nevertheless, rising inflationary pressure prompted many countries, especially those in asia, to pursue tighter monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

702

supply-side shocks related to the el niño phenomenon could also put upward pressures on food prices and inflation more than expected.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

142

domestic financial conditions were mostly unchanged from the previous meeting, as private sector funding costs via commercial banks and bond markets remained broadly unchanged.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

273

overall, members were in agreement that dynamic technological and productivity improvements would enable thai exports to better respond to changing global demand, and therefore would truly reinforce the competitiveness of the exports sector in the long-run.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,015

943

in the fourth quarter of 2014, the thai economy continued to recover modestly, with the momentum of private consumption and investment being softer than expected due in part to weaker private sector confidence and less-than-expected public investment.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

223

going forward, additional relocation of production base to thailand, for some industries such as hard disk drives, would continue to lend further support to merchandise exports.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

154

the thai economy expanded well in the first quarter of this year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

103

in particular, business model adjustments as well as the upskilling and reskilling of labor to suit the post-covid environment should be facilitated.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

724

financial and credit measures should accelerate the distribution of liquidity to and reduce debt burden for businesses and households additionally impacted by the new outbreak in a targeted manner.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

369

meanwhile, border trade has been expanding well, commanding a rising share of total exports.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

502

the government attempted at the same time to strike a balance between its economic growth and financial stability objectives, and this resulted in some improvements in market confidence.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

44

inflation returned to the target band and continued trending upward.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

532

- the committee assessed that upside risks to inflation increased.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

106

credit rating agencies have also reaffirmed thailand credit rating and deemed the thai economic fundamentals to be strong.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

558

thus, scenario analyses are needed to evaluate these risks and impacts on the thai economic recovery.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

259

the committee would closely monitor exchange rate developments as well as potential impacts on the economy going forward.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,018

616

the committee viewed that structural factors partly contributed to inflation becoming less responsive to economic growth despite the economy growing at potential.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

114

(3) agricultural products such as rice saw diminishing market shares, from 25 percent in 2003 to 13 percent currently.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

795

the annual averages of headline inflation in 2019 and 2020 were projected to be lower than the previous forecast and below the lower bound of the inflation target.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

338

despite continuous improvement in recent economic indicators in several countries, overall economic activities remained significantly lower than the pre- pandemic level.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

155

workers in thailand could move quite easily across sectors in response to changing demand in different situations.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

186

in deliberating their policy decision, the committee discussed the need for accommodative monetary policy taking into consideration costs and risks as summarized below.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

222

the government was therefore expected to implement area-specific containment measures and suspend the test & go registration for foreign tourists only temporarily.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

162

inflation in the global economy and domestic economy inflationary pressure increased in many regions in line with high oil and commodity prices.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

862

both private consumption and investment remained robust with continuing momentum.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,012

87

risks to the global economic recovery increased.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

569

the financial system remained sound overall, but vulnerabilities increased in some pockets given the sharp economic contraction that potentially led to income shocks, falling asset prices and tighter financial conditions.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

164

china and asian economies showed sustained growth, mainly on the back of exports, manufacturing production, and increased consumer confidence.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

90

in addition, the committee viewed that raising the public debt ceiling to 70 percent of gdp would allow the government to continue expediting additional policies to support economic recovery.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

843

advanced economies would expand at a moderating pace this year but would be stabilizing in 2020 due to improvements in the manufacturing sector and services employment, favorable private consumption, as well as more fiscal stimulus.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

945

one member noted that interest rate differential played a part in affecting capital inflows, though the strength of this relationship varies over different phases of the business cycles and with financial market sentiments.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

775

by reducing pressures on the baht and addressing structural problems in the thai foreign exchange market through expediting the new foreign exchange ecosystem, capital flows would become more balanced.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

762

the mpc saw the need to closely monitor the development of credits extended by both commercial banks and specialized financial institutions to ensure a smooth transition towards a more balanced financial condition, consistent with a sustained economic recovery.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

354

however, favorable labor market conditions would bolster private consumption and drive the economy going forward.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

748

thai government bond yields declined immediately after the policy rate cut.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

29

macroprudential and microprudential measures could only address risks in connection with loans and financial institutions under loans.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

840

as a result, deleveraging could occur only slowly.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

544

financial stability remained sound overall, but there were pockets of risks that might lead to the build-up of vulnerabilities in the financial system going forward.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

287

if the us economy exhibited robust recovery with rising inflation, us monetary policy could be normalized faster than expected.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

727

also, some members reiterated the necessity of continued monitoring of the household debt situation, as the rate of new debt creation still outpaced income growth.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,014

703

as global price pressure softened in line with weaker global demand, a few central banks, such as in south korea, china, as well as the eurozone, eased policy with a view to containing downside risks to growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

626

meanwhile geopolitical risks could affect the fragile economic recovery and warranted close monitoring.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

446

nevertheless, there remained downside risks stemming from the external front, such as us economic and foreign trade policies as well as geopolitical risks, and domestically from private demand that might not be as strong as expected should the recovery in purchasing power still not broaden out.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

207

in contrast with domestic demand performance, external demand was weaker than previously assessed, as reflected by more-than-expected contraction in exports and export production.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

466

the committee viewed that, should economic expansion continue and inflation move within the target, the need for currently extra accommodative monetary policy would start to be gradually reduced, while the need to have policy space to cushion against possible risks to growth in the future would be increasing.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

605

the baht depreciated against the us dollar and underwent volatile movements in line with other regional currencies due to concerns over trade protectionism and demand for us dollar by some thai firms for overseas investment in the recent period.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

75

fiscal uncertainties continued to pose significant downside risks to growth.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

16

furthermore, better-than-expected outturns in the first quarter of 2022 and the likelihood of additional stimulus measures by the chinese authorities further suggested that the chinese economy would expand in line with the previous projection.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

428

thus, the committee saw a need to closely monitor (1) developments in trading partner economies together with the aforementioned risks in order to evaluate their impacts on the thai economy that could occur through various macroeconomic linkages, and the thai baht.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

98

however, the spread of covid-19 to various countries in asia caused significant slowdown in asian economic activities.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

960

for one member, the crisis in japan called for an interest rate pause.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

485

most committee members judged that a more accommodative monetary policy stance would contribute to the continuation of economic growth and should support the rise of headline inflation toward target.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

538

although risks to inflation have increased, the global economy maintained its recovery momentum as reflected by improvements in the global purchasing managers’ index, particularly in the g3 economies where recovery had become more evident.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

572

this could be achieved through the special loan facility for businesses and asset warehousing.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

61

this is attributable to (1) the 10-year us treasury yield now exceeding 3 percent, a four-year high, thanks to increased us inflation expectations and stronger us economic performance relative to other countries especially europe, (2) uncertainties surrounding us trade policies, and (3) geopolitical risks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

689

the committee saw failure to negotiate public debt resolution in the us as a key risk that could have implications for global financial market volatility going forward.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

615

moreover, a few members stressed the importance of close monitoring of geopolitical situations and the ongoing assessment of the ensuing impacts on the global economy.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

976

on the domestic front, factors included (1) a greater clarity pertaining to political developments and factors attracted more equity as well as both short- and long-term bond inflows to thailand.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

260

with regard to domestic demand, the ongoing expansion began to be more broad-based.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

948

2) some pockets of risks in the financial system might pose vulnerabilities to financial stability in the future.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

518

nevertheless, the overall impact on the financial institution system and the bond markets would be limited, as financial positions of commercial banks remained robust and were capable of withstanding potential deterioration in loan quality in the future.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

779

unemployment, while remaining low overall, recently saw some increases among the new entrants which might reflect structural unemployment.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

46

price pressure moderated in line with the weaker global economic outlook, and inflation was forecasted to remain close to the midpoint of the target range going forward.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

527

these developments prompted investors to continually reduce their holdings of risky assets including investments in emerging market economies, particularly countries with vulnerable economic fundamentals such as argentina and turkey.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

377

the resulting risk aversion weakened the thai baht, reversing appreciation pressures in july.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

5

despite signs of moderating external demand, domestic demand continued to expand.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

956

accounting for the government’s digital wallet scheme, headline and core inflation in 2024 were projected to be - the committee deemed the overall recovery to be intact, both including and not including the impact from the government’s digital wallet scheme.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

864

the committee viewed that the policy rate should be normalized to the level that is consistent with sustainable growth in the long term, and that monetary policy normalization should be done in a gradual and measured manner consistent with the growth and inflation outlook in the period ahead.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

861

regarding interest rate expectations prior to this meeting, continued increases in short-term money market rates and the short-end of the government yield curve showed that the market had already priced in a policy rate hike.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

48

given the recession concerns, investors expected the federal reserve and european central bank to slow down the pace of their interest rate hikes and might even have to cut the interest rates in 2023.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

256