gtfintechlab/bank_of_thailand · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 28 774	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the significant impact of the floods on the real economy led most market participants to anticipate that the mpc would reduce the policy rate at this meeting.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	157
given high growth rates in certain types of credit, close monitoring was warranted to guard against potential imbalances and a policy rate reduction may exacerbate such risks; and (3) the global economy remained susceptible to tail risks and it was important to preserve the room for monetary policy to act quickly should global economic conditions deteriorate rapidly.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	269
supply-side inflationary pressures had gradually dissipated along with a decline in global energy and commodity prices, as reflected by the proportion of goods and services with continuous price increases that had fallen throughout the fourth quarter of 2022.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	336
first, prices of energy and commodity, particularly chemical fertilizers, and animal feed, could remain elevated for longer than previously estimated due to prolonged sanctions against russia.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	586
as a result, investors did not significantly adjust their risky asset position.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	908
although foreign currency liquidity tightened in some periods as concerns over global economic conditions intensified, overall market adjustment was orderly.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	14
private consumption and investment should recover on the back of improving private confidence and fiscal relief measures including repayments of overdue debts under the rice pledging scheme.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	582
the shift was consistent with a survey of market participants which indicated expectations of a 0.25 percentage point hike this meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	293
the us economy continued to expand on the back of domestic demand, while anticipated stimulus measures under the new administration and improved private-sector confidence would contribute positively to business investment in the period ahead.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	34
2) the thai economy continued to expand, supported by robust private consumption and investment as well as fiscal stimulus measures, which were expected to help sustain growth momentum up to the first half of 2013.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,013	706
even though the proportion of domestic goods and services with significant price increases picked up, this remained concentrated in energy- and food-related product groups.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	326
however, the economies remain subject to the uncertainty surrounding greece’s debt servicing ability.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	886
real estate developers thus launched sales promotion for completed condominium projects as well as delayed opening new projects.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,019	682
nevertheless, there were possibilities that the thai economy would expand at a higher rate than the baseline projection owing to from government stimulus measures or in case of alleviated uncertainties and (2) higher-thanexpected domestic demand arising from public investment in infrastructure, ppp projects, quick acceleration of private investment following greater political clarity, as well as additional government measures to support private spending.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	931
this was consistent with total corporate financing that continued to expand but at a lower rate compared with the historical average and was still highly concentrated in larger firms.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	181
adequate and targeted financial measures to assist businesses and households affected by the pandemic should be pushed forward, especially the special loan facility, asset warehousing, and debt restructuring.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	80
this was because most corporate bond issuers raised funds in the short maturity and could still do so as usual.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	497
however, given that deposit growth outpaced loan growth, saving cooperatives consequently increased their investment in long-term assets in search of higher yields.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	63
meanwhile, some committee members regarded the preservation of policy space as important given domestic and external uncertainties.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	79
most economies recorded stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2017, with indicators of manufacturing production and global trade volume reflecting a continued recovery.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	406
long-term thai government bond yields rose in tandem with us treasury yields.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	786
these could cause asset prices and exchange rates to fluctuate.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	311
while demand for cash increased notably during the crisis, transaction volume in the interbank and foreign exchange markets decreased slightly.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	986
the numbers of tourist arrivals for 2022 and 2023 were revised upward by 1 million and projected to be at the tourists would come from asean and other asian nations.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	821
the japanese economy continued to recover slowly, but going forward should receive additional boost from private consumption which was expected to pick up after the annual wage negotiation.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,015	33
four members voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.25 percent per annum, with the following rationales: (1) monetary policy stance remained accommodative and appropriately supportive of economic recovery, as reflected by ample liquidity in the financial system and negative real policy rate; (2) further easing of monetary policy was unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to private consumption and investment at the current juncture, given that political uncertainties were the main headwind to domestic demand at present.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	296
while economic indicators for the us economy pointed to a continued recovery and the japanese economy was expected to gain further traction thanks to the announced postponement of the increase in sales tax, forward momentum from g3 economies was not sufficient to offset the impact from the slowdown in china on asian economies’ exports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	62
looking ahead, the global financial markets would remain highly volatile.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	211
covid-19 containment policies in thailand and abroad must also be monitored, as they would impact the prospects of foreign tourist arrivals and the recovery of tourism in thailand.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	339
businesses and the labor markets would be more fragile and recover slowly.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	542
the uneven growth of advanced economies and emerging markets has led to varied monetary policy responses.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	56
the baht depreciated against the us dollar, primarily influenced by the federal reserve’s monetary policy outlook and domestic developments.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	396
the deterioration in debt service ability was reflected by rising nonperforming loan (npl) ratios, especially in the categories of sme loans and credit card loans.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	768
risks associated with the us economic and foreign trade policies as well as china’s economic structural reform remained in line with the previous assessments but still warranted close monitoring.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	628
the mpc therefore voted 3 to 2 to maintain the policy rate at 3.0 percent per annum.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	764
nevertheless, some committee members viewed that headline inflation might fall below the lower bound of the target in some period and saw the need to assess factors, both cyclical and structural, that might affect the inflation outlook in a comprehensive manner.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	545
however, the global economic outlook grew more uncertain from persistently high inflation and tighter global financial conditions following episodes of banking stresses in some aes.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	340
the economy expanded in the fourth quarter by more than previously assessed largely from stronger-than-expected domestic demand, on the back of both private consumption and investment.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	742
additionally, producers decided to bear the rising costs of production due to difficulties of price pass-through during an economic slowdown.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	30
nevertheless, merchandise export volume, after excluding gold, still contracted from the same period last year due to the slowdown in trading partners’ economies and prevailing structural problems.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	657
the baht fluctuated against the us dollar, initially depreciating due to weak chinese economic outturns before appreciating in line with regional currencies amid expectations of slower tightening in us monetary policy.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	241
headline inflation was expected to slowly rise in most economies.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	324
the main exception was the manufacturing sector, where normal production levels were expected to resume in the third quarter, paving the way for a steady recovery in exports.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	725
in addition, uncertainties regarding the covid-19 situation remained.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	449
the thai economy would contract in 2020 slightly less than the previous forecast but would expand in 2021 at a lower rate than previously forecasted mainly due to the slow recovery of foreign tourist figures.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	407
inflation in trading partner economies was increasing gradually thanks to the recovery in oil and fresh food prices, with signs of core inflation picking up in advanced economies.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	53
under the monetary policy framework with objectives of maintaining price stability, supporting sustainable and full-potential economic growth, and preserving financial stability, the committee continued to put emphasis on supporting the economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	200
maintaining the policy rate at the current level, which is still low and supportive of economic growth, was thus deemed appropriate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	97
second, search-for-yield behavior in the prolonged low interest rate environment could lead to underpricing of risks, especially by large corporates and saving cooperatives.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	150
thus, - 2 volatility of the baht increased.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	194
core inflation increased mainly due to higher cost passthrough.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	747
headline inflation would rise toward target in inflation expectations remained anchored within the target.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	310
real interest rates remained negative and overall funding costs were still conducive for business financing, although government bond yields gradually increased in line with the outlook of policy normalization.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	7
on exchange rates, the baht appreciated rapidly against the us dollar over the recent period on the back of improved investor confidence regarding the global economy and greater capital inflows reinvesting in the debt and equity markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	805
merchandise exports would gradually improve in several categories.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	390
in their policy deliberation, the committee voted 4 to 3 to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	245
however, - 6 safeguarding financial stability in the period ahead would remain necessary and could be done through a combination of tools, including the appropriate policy interest rate, macroprudential measures, and microprudential measures.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	18
the baseline assessment has already incorporated, to a certain extent, factors that could give rise to inflation remaining elevated for a prolonged period of time.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	341
the thai economy would expand by 1.8 and 3.9 percent in 2021 and 2022 respectively, down from the march projection.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	286
global inflationary pressure generally remained subdued.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	461
nevertheless, the rise in oil prices had a small impact on consumption given government measures to mitigate the adverse impact in many countries.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	656
were geopolitical risks to materialize, risky assets in global financial markets might experience a sharp correction in prices.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	363
the committee viewed that, despite a decline in geopolitical risks, the balance of risks to global economic growth was skewed to the downside due mainly to risks associated with us economic and foreign trade policies as well as possible retaliation from us trading partners.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	940
second, the labor market was more severely and extensively affected than expected.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	649
investors assessed that the federal reserve may need to tighten monetary policy earlier than expected to keep rising inflation in line with the long-term target.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	15
this resulted in (1) sustained net capital inflows to the thai bond market and (2) a relatively - 2 smaller amount of net equity outflows compared with other emerging markets.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	342
financial stability remained sound overall but there remained pockets of risks that warranted monitoring.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	798
(2) growth of the thai economy moderated from domestic demand and exports, partly as a result of rising debt burden coupled with waning government consumption stimulus measures.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	873
in particular, more relaxed personal loan underwriting standards could encourage households to increase vulnerabilities.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	123
with regard to the bond market, long-term government bond yields decreased owing to higher foreign demand.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	906
the committee noted a recent surge of bond inflows into malaysia especially in the first two weeks of may, while there were net bond outflows from the thai market.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	722
however, members differed in their assessment of risks going forward and thus the need for policy easing.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	110
the committee noted that domestic demand would be affected by (1) uncertainties pertaining to approval and implementation of key public-private infrastructure investment projects and (2) elevated household debt and declining household employment and income that could affect consumption prospects.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	31
this upward revision was due to the better-than-expected outturn in the first quarter, as well as better-than-expected improvements in merchandise and service exports, which partly offset the impact of delays in public investment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	664
the baht initially depreciated after the policy interest rate cut and the announcement of the relaxation of foreign exchange regulations.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	720
the annual average of headline inflation at 2.5 ± 1.5 percent was set as the medium-term monetary policy target and the target for 2017, as it was deemed conducive to economic growth and price stability as well as the country’s competitiveness.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	521
a number of studies and experiences from other countries suggested that a prolonged period of low interest rates could lead to a build-up of financial imbalances in the economy.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	175
some members saw the need to closely monitor the potential implications of gold exports and imports for current account deficits and thai baht.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	392
average lead time for advance order of freight costs continued to rise, affected, resulting in delay in semiconductor would likely increase to reflecting a container shortage problem product deliveries.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	817
and (3) an acceleration of long-term unemployment.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	953
the annual averages of headline inflation in 2019 and 2020 were projected to be lower than the previous projection and below the lower bound of the inflation target due to lower- than-expected energy prices in tandem with the global economic slowdown as well as a sooner-than-expected return to the normal level of crude oil production in saudi arabia after the attack on production plants.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	328
such resolutions included debt restructuring and the debt clinic, together with putting into practice guidelines for responsible lending and for building financial discipline and promoting household savings.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,019	126
the committee deemed that a very accommodative monetary policy would be less needed going forward.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	4
the risk-off sentiments stemmed in part from growth concerns in china and the prospect of a tighter-forlonger us monetary policy stance.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	889
prolonged political situation and delay in forming a functioning government will have repercussions for the enactment of the 2015 budget act and public spending.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	989
three members voted to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.75 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	726
moreover, the committee viewed that household debt was a critical and urgent risk that would require a multi-dimensional resolution.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	414
the thai economy should continue to expand, driven mainly by tourism and private consumption, with 2023 and 2024 growth projected to be 3.6 and 3.8 percent, respectively.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	965
in this regard, the committee would closely monitor thailand’s economic and financial developments and stand ready to utilize an appropriate mix of available policy tools in order to support the economic recovery, while maintaining economic and financial stability.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	661
the us dollar continued to depreciate due to confirmations that the second round of quantitative easing would continue as scheduled despite improvements in employment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	9
in the discussion of the monetary policy outlook the committee would be data-dependent by closely monitoring the developments of the outlook for growth, inflation, and financial stability, together with associated risks in deliberating monetary policy going forward.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	197
the thai economy overall continued to recover with a 2023 projected growth of 2.4 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	435
advanced economies pursued accommodative monetary policy to safeguard economic recovery while emerging markets tightened to maintain price stability and are expected to accelerate the pace of interest rate normalization in 2011.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	553
although headline inflation began to decelerate, price pressure continued to rise as reflected in the increase in core inflation and inflation forecasts that exceeded the target for many countries.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	887
the thai economy would expand at a slower pace than previously estimated and below its potential.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	160
demandpull inflationary pressures remained subdued given that income had just begun to recover.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	637
remaining policy space should be conserved as further policy easing would likely yield limited growth benefits amid lingering political uncertainties; (2) maintaining the policy rate was conducive to safeguarding stability in the domestic financial markets; (3) financial institutions continued to function normally in supporting the economy and assisting customers to manage short-term difficulties, despite some tightening in credit standards ; and financial stability, needed to be taken into account.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	950
private investment particularly in machinery and equipment continued to improve, as reflected in signs of increasing imported capital goods and domestic machinery sales across various industries.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	799
nevertheless, thai financial markets remained attractive to foreign investors thanks to sound fundamentals and strong external stability.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	88
global financial conditions remained accommodative as overall government bond yields were still lower than historical averages despite some spike during market correction.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	487

the significant impact of the floods on the real economy led most market participants to anticipate that the mpc would reduce the policy rate at this meeting.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

157

given high growth rates in certain types of credit, close monitoring was warranted to guard against potential imbalances and a policy rate reduction may exacerbate such risks; and (3) the global economy remained susceptible to tail risks and it was important to preserve the room for monetary policy to act quickly should global economic conditions deteriorate rapidly.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

269

supply-side inflationary pressures had gradually dissipated along with a decline in global energy and commodity prices, as reflected by the proportion of goods and services with continuous price increases that had fallen throughout the fourth quarter of 2022.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

336

first, prices of energy and commodity, particularly chemical fertilizers, and animal feed, could remain elevated for longer than previously estimated due to prolonged sanctions against russia.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

586

as a result, investors did not significantly adjust their risky asset position.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

908

although foreign currency liquidity tightened in some periods as concerns over global economic conditions intensified, overall market adjustment was orderly.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

14

private consumption and investment should recover on the back of improving private confidence and fiscal relief measures including repayments of overdue debts under the rice pledging scheme.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

582

the shift was consistent with a survey of market participants which indicated expectations of a 0.25 percentage point hike this meeting.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

293

the us economy continued to expand on the back of domestic demand, while anticipated stimulus measures under the new administration and improved private-sector confidence would contribute positively to business investment in the period ahead.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

34

2) the thai economy continued to expand, supported by robust private consumption and investment as well as fiscal stimulus measures, which were expected to help sustain growth momentum up to the first half of 2013.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,013

706

even though the proportion of domestic goods and services with significant price increases picked up, this remained concentrated in energy- and food-related product groups.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

326

however, the economies remain subject to the uncertainty surrounding greece’s debt servicing ability.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

886

real estate developers thus launched sales promotion for completed condominium projects as well as delayed opening new projects.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,019

682

nevertheless, there were possibilities that the thai economy would expand at a higher rate than the baseline projection owing to from government stimulus measures or in case of alleviated uncertainties and (2) higher-thanexpected domestic demand arising from public investment in infrastructure, ppp projects, quick acceleration of private investment following greater political clarity, as well as additional government measures to support private spending.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

931

this was consistent with total corporate financing that continued to expand but at a lower rate compared with the historical average and was still highly concentrated in larger firms.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

181

adequate and targeted financial measures to assist businesses and households affected by the pandemic should be pushed forward, especially the special loan facility, asset warehousing, and debt restructuring.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

80

this was because most corporate bond issuers raised funds in the short maturity and could still do so as usual.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

497

however, given that deposit growth outpaced loan growth, saving cooperatives consequently increased their investment in long-term assets in search of higher yields.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

63

meanwhile, some committee members regarded the preservation of policy space as important given domestic and external uncertainties.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

79

most economies recorded stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2017, with indicators of manufacturing production and global trade volume reflecting a continued recovery.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

406

long-term thai government bond yields rose in tandem with us treasury yields.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

786

these could cause asset prices and exchange rates to fluctuate.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

311

while demand for cash increased notably during the crisis, transaction volume in the interbank and foreign exchange markets decreased slightly.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

986

the numbers of tourist arrivals for 2022 and 2023 were revised upward by 1 million and projected to be at the tourists would come from asean and other asian nations.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

821

the japanese economy continued to recover slowly, but going forward should receive additional boost from private consumption which was expected to pick up after the annual wage negotiation.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,015

33

four members voted to maintain the policy rate at 2.25 percent per annum, with the following rationales: (1) monetary policy stance remained accommodative and appropriately supportive of economic recovery, as reflected by ample liquidity in the financial system and negative real policy rate; (2) further easing of monetary policy was unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to private consumption and investment at the current juncture, given that political uncertainties were the main headwind to domestic demand at present.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

296

while economic indicators for the us economy pointed to a continued recovery and the japanese economy was expected to gain further traction thanks to the announced postponement of the increase in sales tax, forward momentum from g3 economies was not sufficient to offset the impact from the slowdown in china on asian economies’ exports.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

62

looking ahead, the global financial markets would remain highly volatile.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

211

covid-19 containment policies in thailand and abroad must also be monitored, as they would impact the prospects of foreign tourist arrivals and the recovery of tourism in thailand.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

339

businesses and the labor markets would be more fragile and recover slowly.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

542

the uneven growth of advanced economies and emerging markets has led to varied monetary policy responses.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

56

the baht depreciated against the us dollar, primarily influenced by the federal reserve’s monetary policy outlook and domestic developments.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

396

the deterioration in debt service ability was reflected by rising nonperforming loan (npl) ratios, especially in the categories of sme loans and credit card loans.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

768

risks associated with the us economic and foreign trade policies as well as china’s economic structural reform remained in line with the previous assessments but still warranted close monitoring.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

628

the mpc therefore voted 3 to 2 to maintain the policy rate at 3.0 percent per annum.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

764

nevertheless, some committee members viewed that headline inflation might fall below the lower bound of the target in some period and saw the need to assess factors, both cyclical and structural, that might affect the inflation outlook in a comprehensive manner.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

545

however, the global economic outlook grew more uncertain from persistently high inflation and tighter global financial conditions following episodes of banking stresses in some aes.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

340

the economy expanded in the fourth quarter by more than previously assessed largely from stronger-than-expected domestic demand, on the back of both private consumption and investment.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

742

additionally, producers decided to bear the rising costs of production due to difficulties of price pass-through during an economic slowdown.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

30

nevertheless, merchandise export volume, after excluding gold, still contracted from the same period last year due to the slowdown in trading partners’ economies and prevailing structural problems.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

657

the baht fluctuated against the us dollar, initially depreciating due to weak chinese economic outturns before appreciating in line with regional currencies amid expectations of slower tightening in us monetary policy.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

241

headline inflation was expected to slowly rise in most economies.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

324

the main exception was the manufacturing sector, where normal production levels were expected to resume in the third quarter, paving the way for a steady recovery in exports.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

725

in addition, uncertainties regarding the covid-19 situation remained.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

449

the thai economy would contract in 2020 slightly less than the previous forecast but would expand in 2021 at a lower rate than previously forecasted mainly due to the slow recovery of foreign tourist figures.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

407

inflation in trading partner economies was increasing gradually thanks to the recovery in oil and fresh food prices, with signs of core inflation picking up in advanced economies.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

53

under the monetary policy framework with objectives of maintaining price stability, supporting sustainable and full-potential economic growth, and preserving financial stability, the committee continued to put emphasis on supporting the economic recovery.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

200

maintaining the policy rate at the current level, which is still low and supportive of economic growth, was thus deemed appropriate.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

97

second, search-for-yield behavior in the prolonged low interest rate environment could lead to underpricing of risks, especially by large corporates and saving cooperatives.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

150

thus, - 2 volatility of the baht increased.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

194

core inflation increased mainly due to higher cost passthrough.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

747

headline inflation would rise toward target in inflation expectations remained anchored within the target.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

310

real interest rates remained negative and overall funding costs were still conducive for business financing, although government bond yields gradually increased in line with the outlook of policy normalization.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

7

on exchange rates, the baht appreciated rapidly against the us dollar over the recent period on the back of improved investor confidence regarding the global economy and greater capital inflows reinvesting in the debt and equity markets.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

805

merchandise exports would gradually improve in several categories.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

390

in their policy deliberation, the committee voted 4 to 3 to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

245

however, - 6 safeguarding financial stability in the period ahead would remain necessary and could be done through a combination of tools, including the appropriate policy interest rate, macroprudential measures, and microprudential measures.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

18

the baseline assessment has already incorporated, to a certain extent, factors that could give rise to inflation remaining elevated for a prolonged period of time.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

341

the thai economy would expand by 1.8 and 3.9 percent in 2021 and 2022 respectively, down from the march projection.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

286

global inflationary pressure generally remained subdued.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

461

nevertheless, the rise in oil prices had a small impact on consumption given government measures to mitigate the adverse impact in many countries.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

656

were geopolitical risks to materialize, risky assets in global financial markets might experience a sharp correction in prices.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

363

the committee viewed that, despite a decline in geopolitical risks, the balance of risks to global economic growth was skewed to the downside due mainly to risks associated with us economic and foreign trade policies as well as possible retaliation from us trading partners.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

940

second, the labor market was more severely and extensively affected than expected.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

649

investors assessed that the federal reserve may need to tighten monetary policy earlier than expected to keep rising inflation in line with the long-term target.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

15

this resulted in (1) sustained net capital inflows to the thai bond market and (2) a relatively - 2 smaller amount of net equity outflows compared with other emerging markets.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

342

financial stability remained sound overall but there remained pockets of risks that warranted monitoring.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

798

(2) growth of the thai economy moderated from domestic demand and exports, partly as a result of rising debt burden coupled with waning government consumption stimulus measures.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

873

in particular, more relaxed personal loan underwriting standards could encourage households to increase vulnerabilities.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

123

with regard to the bond market, long-term government bond yields decreased owing to higher foreign demand.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

906

the committee noted a recent surge of bond inflows into malaysia especially in the first two weeks of may, while there were net bond outflows from the thai market.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

722

however, members differed in their assessment of risks going forward and thus the need for policy easing.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

110

the committee noted that domestic demand would be affected by (1) uncertainties pertaining to approval and implementation of key public-private infrastructure investment projects and (2) elevated household debt and declining household employment and income that could affect consumption prospects.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

31

this upward revision was due to the better-than-expected outturn in the first quarter, as well as better-than-expected improvements in merchandise and service exports, which partly offset the impact of delays in public investment.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

664

the baht initially depreciated after the policy interest rate cut and the announcement of the relaxation of foreign exchange regulations.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

720

the annual average of headline inflation at 2.5 ± 1.5 percent was set as the medium-term monetary policy target and the target for 2017, as it was deemed conducive to economic growth and price stability as well as the country’s competitiveness.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

521

a number of studies and experiences from other countries suggested that a prolonged period of low interest rates could lead to a build-up of financial imbalances in the economy.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,013

175

some members saw the need to closely monitor the potential implications of gold exports and imports for current account deficits and thai baht.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

392

average lead time for advance order of freight costs continued to rise, affected, resulting in delay in semiconductor would likely increase to reflecting a container shortage problem product deliveries.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

817

and (3) an acceleration of long-term unemployment.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

953

the annual averages of headline inflation in 2019 and 2020 were projected to be lower than the previous projection and below the lower bound of the inflation target due to lower- than-expected energy prices in tandem with the global economic slowdown as well as a sooner-than-expected return to the normal level of crude oil production in saudi arabia after the attack on production plants.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

328

such resolutions included debt restructuring and the debt clinic, together with putting into practice guidelines for responsible lending and for building financial discipline and promoting household savings.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,019

126

the committee deemed that a very accommodative monetary policy would be less needed going forward.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

4

the risk-off sentiments stemmed in part from growth concerns in china and the prospect of a tighter-forlonger us monetary policy stance.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

889

prolonged political situation and delay in forming a functioning government will have repercussions for the enactment of the 2015 budget act and public spending.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

989

three members voted to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.75 percent.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

726

moreover, the committee viewed that household debt was a critical and urgent risk that would require a multi-dimensional resolution.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

414

the thai economy should continue to expand, driven mainly by tourism and private consumption, with 2023 and 2024 growth projected to be 3.6 and 3.8 percent, respectively.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

965

in this regard, the committee would closely monitor thailand’s economic and financial developments and stand ready to utilize an appropriate mix of available policy tools in order to support the economic recovery, while maintaining economic and financial stability.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

661

the us dollar continued to depreciate due to confirmations that the second round of quantitative easing would continue as scheduled despite improvements in employment.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

9

in the discussion of the monetary policy outlook the committee would be data-dependent by closely monitoring the developments of the outlook for growth, inflation, and financial stability, together with associated risks in deliberating monetary policy going forward.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

197

the thai economy overall continued to recover with a 2023 projected growth of 2.4 percent.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

435

advanced economies pursued accommodative monetary policy to safeguard economic recovery while emerging markets tightened to maintain price stability and are expected to accelerate the pace of interest rate normalization in 2011.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

553

although headline inflation began to decelerate, price pressure continued to rise as reflected in the increase in core inflation and inflation forecasts that exceeded the target for many countries.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

887

the thai economy would expand at a slower pace than previously estimated and below its potential.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

160

demandpull inflationary pressures remained subdued given that income had just begun to recover.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

637

remaining policy space should be conserved as further policy easing would likely yield limited growth benefits amid lingering political uncertainties; (2) maintaining the policy rate was conducive to safeguarding stability in the domestic financial markets; (3) financial institutions continued to function normally in supporting the economy and assisting customers to manage short-term difficulties, despite some tightening in credit standards ; and financial stability, needed to be taken into account.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,014

950

private investment particularly in machinery and equipment continued to improve, as reflected in signs of increasing imported capital goods and domestic machinery sales across various industries.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

799

nevertheless, thai financial markets remained attractive to foreign investors thanks to sound fundamentals and strong external stability.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

88

global financial conditions remained accommodative as overall government bond yields were still lower than historical averages despite some spike during market correction.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

487