gtfintechlab/bank_of_mexico · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 27 804	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.02k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
most members highlighted that the economic recovery is expected to continue for the rest of the year.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	705
in relation to the monetary policy decision, considering that the lower levels recorded by headline inflation, as well as the ample slack conditions in the economy and the recent behavior of the external and domestic yield curves allow for decreasing the policy rate, the majority considered adequate to reduce by 25-basis points the overnight interbank interest rate to a level of 7.50%.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	921
in this regard, he/she pointed out that these increases created the expectation of a more permanent inflation, and therefore did not affect the real interest rate.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	158
they argued that several assumptions of the economic package might not materialize, emphasizing those related to the evolution of oil production and economic activity.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	654
most pressures on headline inflation have started to diminish.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	822
he/she added that tiie swaps decreased in all of their nodes.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	43
some members pointed out that domestic financing also continued growing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	189
one member added that at times it exhibits a significant downward trend, improving headline inflation’s performance, but at other times it exerts an upward influence.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	869
some members mentioned that this was due to both international and idiosyncratic factors.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,022	987
in the case of the united states, another member considered that the fading of factors that once supported the resilience of its economy, such as the financial position of households, which is already weakening, suggests that some downward risks have gained relevance.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	467
one member stated that such increase responds to the disinflationary process and the stabilization of nominal wages.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	257
some members expressed concern about this behavior.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	658
alejandro díaz de león-carrillo, irene espinosacantellano, gerardo esquivel-hernández and javier eduardo guzmán-calafell voted in favor of maintaining the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 4.25%.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	754
he/she added that, given its robust macroeconomic stance, mexico is in a better position to face the fed’s restrictive cycle.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	632
one member added the possibility of lower inflationary pressures at a global level and a new outbreak of the virus lowering the demand for goods and services.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	426
he/she stated that the behavior of the national currency has also contributed to the disinflationary process.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	288
most members noted that the balance of risks for global economic activity is biased to the all members highlighted the high levels that world inflation has registered.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	70
one of them elaborated on the different factors that have kept inflation structurally low in advanced economies.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	167
some members highlighted the reduction in credit to consumers and small- and medium-sized firms.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	102
could be influencing the decline in non-food merchandise prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	250
one member pointed out that this, together with financial stability conditions, minimizes the possible harmful effect of higher interest rates on households and firms.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	832
some members indicated that expectations implied by market instruments for the end of 2024 point to a greater decline in the federal funds rate than the federal reserve's projections.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	916
in this regard, he/she stated that mexico is a small and open economy with a high level of financial and commercial integration with the united states and, therefore, it is normal for the federal reserve’s actions to have repercussions on the mexican economy.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	763
some members pointed out that face- to-face services continue to be significantly affected.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	84
he/she argued that the described phenomenon requires maintaining an adequate monetary restriction given a less adverse risk outlook than that faced in 2023, and thus it does not require keeping the monetary policy stance at historically restrictive levels.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	295
another member pointed out that the macroprudential policies implemented in mexico over the last two decades have so far allowed the mexican financial system to be sufficiently resilient to avoid contagions as well as to contain any signs of instability.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	125
however, he/she indicated that this sector has not shown a clear trend since mid-2023.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,024	845
he/she underlined that shorter-term ones have already stabilized, while longer-term ones, which affect the price formation process to a greater degree, have remained anchored.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	191
another member added that, according to inegi’s telephone survey of occupation and employment, the national unemployment rate is currently at 4.7%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	617
one member noted that although a lower deficit than the one approved is expected for 2023, a public balance deficit of 4.9% of gdp is anticipated for 2024.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	64
they mentioned that this upward adjustment was due to the rise continued decreasing.	irrelevant	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	709
another member argued that, while formal jobs susceptible to social interaction continue to be highly affected, those that are more related to external demand have exceeded their pre-pandemic levels.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	247
in particular, one of the members pointed out that interest rates of u.s. 2year treasury bonds have hit levels above 2.5% and also registered an increase of over 120 basis points since september, while 10- to 30-year treasury bonds have yields of 2.9% and 3.0%, corresponding to increases of over 80 and 35 basis points, respectively, during the same period.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	434
one member pointed to the lower costs of maritime transport and decreased scarcity of commodities.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	362
one member added that in these economies, the trimmed mean indicator of headline inflation shows a downward trend.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	215
most members warned about the possibility of greater cost-related pressures.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	879
most members considered that the balance of risks with regards to the expected path of inflation continues to be biased to the upside, in an environment of marked uncertainty.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	985
they pointed out that, in line with developments in international financial markets, these adjustments tended to reverse in the last few days.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	652
in this respect, a member emphasized the widespread risk aversion feeling in such markets, as well as the observed strengthening of the u.s. dollar.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	316
one member stated that, if the deterioration in medium-term expectations is not addressed, these could contaminate long-term expectations.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	489
most members also underlined the risk that public finances deteriorate.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	89
this, considering the unfounded optimism that prevails at the global level, including in mexico, claiming it is possible to return to the inflation target with lower rates.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	977
he/she added that with a 50 basis point reduction to the policy rate in mexico, the interest rate spread between mexico and the united states would still be very much above the spreads of all emerging economies within the same group of assets.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	199
thus, in order to achieve an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the maintain the reference rate at its current level for an extended period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	277
it will consider the incidence of both the restrictive policy stance that has been maintained and that prevailing in the future on inflation throughout the horizon in which monetary policy operates.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	878
one member considered that domestic factors, such as the agreement of the federal government with the firms operating gas pipelines, pemex’s bond repurchase and refinancing, and the presentation of the 2020 economic package, contributed to the favorable performance displayed by domestic financial markets in september.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	789
he/she added that if the fiscal consolidation process contemplated for 2025 is not achieved, given the challenges that this implies, the consequences for inflationary dynamics could be even greater for that year.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	408
he/she noted that monetary policy still has room to contribute to improve financing conditions without jeopardizing other aspects of the economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	865
he/she delved into the shortage of inputs slowing down production in certain sectors, which is uncommon during an early upward stage of the economic cycle.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	148
another member pointed out that the date on which the first downward adjustment is expected to take place has been postponed.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	894
some members noted that gains in asset price valuations have reverted.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	37
some members underlined that in its communications the us federal reserve made it clear that this adjustment does not imply the beginning of an easing cycle, although the possibility of future adjustments, if required, was not ruled out.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	776
however, he/she warned that said estimates should be taken with caution, given that their measurements exhibit a wide range of variability, depending on the methodology used.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	380
one member argued that, even if the depreciation persists, it would occur in a context of economic contraction.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	851
he/she underlined the recent slowdown in industrial production, especially in the manufacturing sectors that have very extended supply chains, which has propitiated multiple bottlenecks in production and adverse effects on prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	697
one member highlighted that another problem that pemex faces is the possibility of observing a lower oil platform than expected due to both the low levels of investment and the cancellation of private participation in new developments that may allow an increase of crude oil production.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	814
he/she mentioned that there is also an inertia of increases in the prices of non-tradable goods that will not be easy to control.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	904
one member added idiosyncratic risks, especially in emerging economies.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	252
some members commented that those for the next twelve months declined.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	929
however, some members pointed out that in certain cases they reduced their reference rate in view of concerns over the deceleration of economic activity.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	611
one member stated that this occurs even despite an environment of economic slowdown and of accumulated increases in the reference rate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	500
this poses greater risks to the price formation process and to inflation expectations.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	163
however, another member mentioned that energy prices registered relatively low annual inflation levels.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	280
most members warned about the possibility of greater cost-related pressures of various nature.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	942
one member added the volatility in financial markets and the negative impact on input supply chains.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	596
some members stressed that core inflation’s persistence has even contaminated inflation expectations, one member adding that, in particular, it has had an influence on medium-term expectations.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	604
some members stated that, regarding core inflation components, services’ prices remained subject to significant pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	217
one member underlined that, although agricultural and livestock products’ inflation has declined relative to the levels observed in the third quarter of 2022, it still remains at high levels.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	395
he/she added that, in the absence of further shocks, discussions could begin regarding the level of reference rate cuts.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	997
he/she stated that, due to the above, monetary policy must be even more cautious in the following months and, if available information suggests that there is still room for an additional easing, the adjustments should be expected to be more gradual than those observed in recent months.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	475
first, such member reflected upon different commentator’s opinions regarding the objectives that a central bank ought to have.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	203
he/she pointed out that there are also domestic pressures.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	850
he/she added that when macroeconomic conditions allow for additional adjustments, these would be gradual.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	963
in this context, one member noted that pemex remains the main domestic risk factor given its dependence on the federal government’s financial support.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	982
he/she highlighted that in 2021 fiscal support and transfers to households increased considerably in the united states, generating an increase in the demand for consumer durables worldwide, thus exerting pressure on their prices and generating bottlenecks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	445
the majority of members noted that private unfavorably, and mentioned the fall in lending to firms.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	507
victoria rodríguez, galia borja, irene espinosa, jonathan heath and omar mejía voted in favor of maintaining the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 11.25%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	645
in this context, most members stated that operating conditions in the foreign exchange market deteriorated, although one member considered that they remain at adequate levels.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	196
another member warned that if the current monetary policy is relaxed too soon, significant increases in volatility could be observed in domestic financial markets and this could have an impact on financial stability.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	708
he/she explained that this suggests that the pace and scale of possible adjustments in the monetary policy stance should continue to be gradual to ensure the transmission to less sensitive components without causing disorderly deviations in those that are more reactive to different transmission channels.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	785
in view of the described environment, most members highlighted that central banks in advanced and emerging economies have eased their monetary policy stances.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	423
all members mentioned that mexico's economic activity has continued showing dynamism.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	683
some members highlighted the contraction in construction and mining, although one member noted that both have exhibited a slight upward trend after having deteriorated for several years.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	415
another member mentioned that in an adverse environment like the one currently faced by the mexican economy, the optimal macroeconomic response would be to adjust both fiscal and monetary policies.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	895
regarding the growth outlook, most members pointed out that it has been revised downwards.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	693
one member added that, although a rapid fall in headline and core inflation is projected as of the third quarter of this year, it may not occur, even after the monetary tightening attained, due to the persistence of inflation that has been observed.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	993
another member emphasized that the re-imposition of sanctions on iran recently announced by the united states, has contributed to the spike in international oil prices to levels unseen since the end of 2014, and that this could have relevant implications for economic activity and inflation in several developed and emerging economies.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	781
one member pointed out that the unemployment rate measured by different indicators stabilized at low levels and also that the indicator with national coverage remains below the estimates of its long term level.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	400
one member considered that this assumes a small slope in the phillips curve.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	132
most members stated that timely indicators suggest that world economic activity continued decelerating during the third quarter.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	55
therefore, he/she stated that, looking ahead, the process of convergence could face significant challenges.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	981
the same member warned that the fact that minimum wages have been below extreme poverty levels makes it more urgent to create an effective policy to promote competition.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	847
one member mentioned that timely information allows to anticipate that investment will continue declining.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	193
in this regard, one member highlighted that in several countries like australia, chile, india and russia, policy rates have already been cut, given the improved outlook in the balance of risks for inflation, in what appears to be the beginning of a new cycle of rate cuts at the global level.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	696
in particular, they noted the weak performance of construction.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	431
he/she mentioned that during this period the monetary policy stance continued strengthening, as the real ex-ante rate continued increasing due to the decline in inflation expectations.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	620
one member argued that in view of an unprecedented recession, an inflation near the lower range of the variability interval, and in the verge of undergoing a massive unemployment crisis, it is important to continue easing monetary policy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	660
one member delved into the factors to be considered in the conduct of monetary policy, highlighting that since mid-2015 the economy has been facing an adverse shock to its potential growth, together with a tighter external financing constraint.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	388
he/she stated that, on the one hand, risks to non-core inflation are more symmetrical; that is, their occurrence may either favor or harm their dynamics, and they are also not affected by monetary policy; on the other hand, risks to core inflation are more asymmetrical and, in principle, susceptible to monetary policy actions.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	177
one member stated that, despite the volatility of the latter, given the world economic deceleration there are likely to be lower pressures on the prices of energy products and, consequently, on non-core inflation.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	859

most members highlighted that the economic recovery is expected to continue for the rest of the year.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

705

in relation to the monetary policy decision, considering that the lower levels recorded by headline inflation, as well as the ample slack conditions in the economy and the recent behavior of the external and domestic yield curves allow for decreasing the policy rate, the majority considered adequate to reduce by 25-basis points the overnight interbank interest rate to a level of 7.50%.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

921

in this regard, he/she pointed out that these increases created the expectation of a more permanent inflation, and therefore did not affect the real interest rate.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

158

they argued that several assumptions of the economic package might not materialize, emphasizing those related to the evolution of oil production and economic activity.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

654

most pressures on headline inflation have started to diminish.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

822

he/she added that tiie swaps decreased in all of their nodes.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

43

some members pointed out that domestic financing also continued growing.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

189

one member added that at times it exhibits a significant downward trend, improving headline inflation’s performance, but at other times it exerts an upward influence.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

869

some members mentioned that this was due to both international and idiosyncratic factors.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,022

987

in the case of the united states, another member considered that the fading of factors that once supported the resilience of its economy, such as the financial position of households, which is already weakening, suggests that some downward risks have gained relevance.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

467

one member stated that such increase responds to the disinflationary process and the stabilization of nominal wages.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

257

some members expressed concern about this behavior.

irrelevant

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

658

alejandro díaz de león-carrillo, irene espinosacantellano, gerardo esquivel-hernández and javier eduardo guzmán-calafell voted in favor of maintaining the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 4.25%.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

754

he/she added that, given its robust macroeconomic stance, mexico is in a better position to face the fed’s restrictive cycle.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

632

one member added the possibility of lower inflationary pressures at a global level and a new outbreak of the virus lowering the demand for goods and services.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

426

he/she stated that the behavior of the national currency has also contributed to the disinflationary process.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

288

most members noted that the balance of risks for global economic activity is biased to the all members highlighted the high levels that world inflation has registered.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

70

one of them elaborated on the different factors that have kept inflation structurally low in advanced economies.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

167

some members highlighted the reduction in credit to consumers and small- and medium-sized firms.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

102

could be influencing the decline in non-food merchandise prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

250

one member pointed out that this, together with financial stability conditions, minimizes the possible harmful effect of higher interest rates on households and firms.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

832

some members indicated that expectations implied by market instruments for the end of 2024 point to a greater decline in the federal funds rate than the federal reserve's projections.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

916

in this regard, he/she stated that mexico is a small and open economy with a high level of financial and commercial integration with the united states and, therefore, it is normal for the federal reserve’s actions to have repercussions on the mexican economy.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

763

some members pointed out that face- to-face services continue to be significantly affected.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

84

he/she argued that the described phenomenon requires maintaining an adequate monetary restriction given a less adverse risk outlook than that faced in 2023, and thus it does not require keeping the monetary policy stance at historically restrictive levels.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

295

another member pointed out that the macroprudential policies implemented in mexico over the last two decades have so far allowed the mexican financial system to be sufficiently resilient to avoid contagions as well as to contain any signs of instability.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

125

however, he/she indicated that this sector has not shown a clear trend since mid-2023.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,024

845

he/she underlined that shorter-term ones have already stabilized, while longer-term ones, which affect the price formation process to a greater degree, have remained anchored.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

191

another member added that, according to inegi’s telephone survey of occupation and employment, the national unemployment rate is currently at 4.7%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

617

one member noted that although a lower deficit than the one approved is expected for 2023, a public balance deficit of 4.9% of gdp is anticipated for 2024.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

64

they mentioned that this upward adjustment was due to the rise continued decreasing.

irrelevant

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

709

another member argued that, while formal jobs susceptible to social interaction continue to be highly affected, those that are more related to external demand have exceeded their pre-pandemic levels.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

247

in particular, one of the members pointed out that interest rates of u.s. 2year treasury bonds have hit levels above 2.5% and also registered an increase of over 120 basis points since september, while 10- to 30-year treasury bonds have yields of 2.9% and 3.0%, corresponding to increases of over 80 and 35 basis points, respectively, during the same period.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

434

one member pointed to the lower costs of maritime transport and decreased scarcity of commodities.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

362

one member added that in these economies, the trimmed mean indicator of headline inflation shows a downward trend.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

215

most members warned about the possibility of greater cost-related pressures.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

879

most members considered that the balance of risks with regards to the expected path of inflation continues to be biased to the upside, in an environment of marked uncertainty.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

985

they pointed out that, in line with developments in international financial markets, these adjustments tended to reverse in the last few days.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

652

in this respect, a member emphasized the widespread risk aversion feeling in such markets, as well as the observed strengthening of the u.s. dollar.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

316

one member stated that, if the deterioration in medium-term expectations is not addressed, these could contaminate long-term expectations.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

489

most members also underlined the risk that public finances deteriorate.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

89

this, considering the unfounded optimism that prevails at the global level, including in mexico, claiming it is possible to return to the inflation target with lower rates.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

977

he/she added that with a 50 basis point reduction to the policy rate in mexico, the interest rate spread between mexico and the united states would still be very much above the spreads of all emerging economies within the same group of assets.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

199

thus, in order to achieve an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the maintain the reference rate at its current level for an extended period.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

277

it will consider the incidence of both the restrictive policy stance that has been maintained and that prevailing in the future on inflation throughout the horizon in which monetary policy operates.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

878

one member considered that domestic factors, such as the agreement of the federal government with the firms operating gas pipelines, pemex’s bond repurchase and refinancing, and the presentation of the 2020 economic package, contributed to the favorable performance displayed by domestic financial markets in september.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

789

he/she added that if the fiscal consolidation process contemplated for 2025 is not achieved, given the challenges that this implies, the consequences for inflationary dynamics could be even greater for that year.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

408

he/she noted that monetary policy still has room to contribute to improve financing conditions without jeopardizing other aspects of the economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

865

he/she delved into the shortage of inputs slowing down production in certain sectors, which is uncommon during an early upward stage of the economic cycle.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

148

another member pointed out that the date on which the first downward adjustment is expected to take place has been postponed.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

894

some members noted that gains in asset price valuations have reverted.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

37

some members underlined that in its communications the us federal reserve made it clear that this adjustment does not imply the beginning of an easing cycle, although the possibility of future adjustments, if required, was not ruled out.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

776

however, he/she warned that said estimates should be taken with caution, given that their measurements exhibit a wide range of variability, depending on the methodology used.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

380

one member argued that, even if the depreciation persists, it would occur in a context of economic contraction.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

851

he/she underlined the recent slowdown in industrial production, especially in the manufacturing sectors that have very extended supply chains, which has propitiated multiple bottlenecks in production and adverse effects on prices.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

697

one member highlighted that another problem that pemex faces is the possibility of observing a lower oil platform than expected due to both the low levels of investment and the cancellation of private participation in new developments that may allow an increase of crude oil production.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

814

he/she mentioned that there is also an inertia of increases in the prices of non-tradable goods that will not be easy to control.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

904

one member added idiosyncratic risks, especially in emerging economies.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

252

some members commented that those for the next twelve months declined.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

929

however, some members pointed out that in certain cases they reduced their reference rate in view of concerns over the deceleration of economic activity.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

611

one member stated that this occurs even despite an environment of economic slowdown and of accumulated increases in the reference rate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

500

this poses greater risks to the price formation process and to inflation expectations.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

163

however, another member mentioned that energy prices registered relatively low annual inflation levels.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

280

most members warned about the possibility of greater cost-related pressures of various nature.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

942

one member added the volatility in financial markets and the negative impact on input supply chains.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

596

some members stressed that core inflation’s persistence has even contaminated inflation expectations, one member adding that, in particular, it has had an influence on medium-term expectations.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

604

some members stated that, regarding core inflation components, services’ prices remained subject to significant pressures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

217

one member underlined that, although agricultural and livestock products’ inflation has declined relative to the levels observed in the third quarter of 2022, it still remains at high levels.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

395

he/she added that, in the absence of further shocks, discussions could begin regarding the level of reference rate cuts.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

997

he/she stated that, due to the above, monetary policy must be even more cautious in the following months and, if available information suggests that there is still room for an additional easing, the adjustments should be expected to be more gradual than those observed in recent months.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

475

first, such member reflected upon different commentator’s opinions regarding the objectives that a central bank ought to have.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

203

he/she pointed out that there are also domestic pressures.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

850

he/she added that when macroeconomic conditions allow for additional adjustments, these would be gradual.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

963

in this context, one member noted that pemex remains the main domestic risk factor given its dependence on the federal government’s financial support.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

982

he/she highlighted that in 2021 fiscal support and transfers to households increased considerably in the united states, generating an increase in the demand for consumer durables worldwide, thus exerting pressure on their prices and generating bottlenecks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

445

the majority of members noted that private unfavorably, and mentioned the fall in lending to firms.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

507

victoria rodríguez, galia borja, irene espinosa, jonathan heath and omar mejía voted in favor of maintaining the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 11.25%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

645

in this context, most members stated that operating conditions in the foreign exchange market deteriorated, although one member considered that they remain at adequate levels.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

196

another member warned that if the current monetary policy is relaxed too soon, significant increases in volatility could be observed in domestic financial markets and this could have an impact on financial stability.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

708

he/she explained that this suggests that the pace and scale of possible adjustments in the monetary policy stance should continue to be gradual to ensure the transmission to less sensitive components without causing disorderly deviations in those that are more reactive to different transmission channels.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

785

in view of the described environment, most members highlighted that central banks in advanced and emerging economies have eased their monetary policy stances.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

423

all members mentioned that mexico's economic activity has continued showing dynamism.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

683

some members highlighted the contraction in construction and mining, although one member noted that both have exhibited a slight upward trend after having deteriorated for several years.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

415

another member mentioned that in an adverse environment like the one currently faced by the mexican economy, the optimal macroeconomic response would be to adjust both fiscal and monetary policies.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

895

regarding the growth outlook, most members pointed out that it has been revised downwards.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

693

one member added that, although a rapid fall in headline and core inflation is projected as of the third quarter of this year, it may not occur, even after the monetary tightening attained, due to the persistence of inflation that has been observed.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

993

another member emphasized that the re-imposition of sanctions on iran recently announced by the united states, has contributed to the spike in international oil prices to levels unseen since the end of 2014, and that this could have relevant implications for economic activity and inflation in several developed and emerging economies.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

781

one member pointed out that the unemployment rate measured by different indicators stabilized at low levels and also that the indicator with national coverage remains below the estimates of its long term level.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

400

one member considered that this assumes a small slope in the phillips curve.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

132

most members stated that timely indicators suggest that world economic activity continued decelerating during the third quarter.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

55

therefore, he/she stated that, looking ahead, the process of convergence could face significant challenges.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

981

the same member warned that the fact that minimum wages have been below extreme poverty levels makes it more urgent to create an effective policy to promote competition.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

847

one member mentioned that timely information allows to anticipate that investment will continue declining.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

193

in this regard, one member highlighted that in several countries like australia, chile, india and russia, policy rates have already been cut, given the improved outlook in the balance of risks for inflation, in what appears to be the beginning of a new cycle of rate cuts at the global level.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

696

in particular, they noted the weak performance of construction.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

431

he/she mentioned that during this period the monetary policy stance continued strengthening, as the real ex-ante rate continued increasing due to the decline in inflation expectations.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

620

one member argued that in view of an unprecedented recession, an inflation near the lower range of the variability interval, and in the verge of undergoing a massive unemployment crisis, it is important to continue easing monetary policy.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

660

one member delved into the factors to be considered in the conduct of monetary policy, highlighting that since mid-2015 the economy has been facing an adverse shock to its potential growth, together with a tighter external financing constraint.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

388

he/she stated that, on the one hand, risks to non-core inflation are more symmetrical; that is, their occurrence may either favor or harm their dynamics, and they are also not affected by monetary policy; on the other hand, risks to core inflation are more asymmetrical and, in principle, susceptible to monetary policy actions.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

177

one member stated that, despite the volatility of the latter, given the world economic deceleration there are likely to be lower pressures on the prices of energy products and, consequently, on non-core inflation.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

859