id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55134541 | Will we confirm evidence for megastructures orbiting the star KIC 8462852? | Boolean question | no | 2016-03-01T00:00:00 | 2015-10-26T00:00:00 | 0.7133 |
2864f8e1 | The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems? | Boolean question | no | 2016-06-16T00:00:00 | 2015-10-26T00:00:00 | 0.6353 |
02fe504e | Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab? | Boolean question | no | 2016-11-18T00:00:00 | 2015-11-02T00:00:00 | 0.6535 |
8bceb4cf | Is Graph Isomorphism solvable in Polynomial Time? | Boolean question | no | 2017-06-02T00:00:00 | 2015-11-05T00:00:00 | 0.6746 |
cabe1260 | By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem? | Boolean question | no | 2016-07-10T00:00:00 | 2015-11-07T00:00:00 | 0.5261 |
e10fa36b | Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human? | Boolean question | yes | 2016-06-07T00:00:00 | 2015-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.4209 |
c5d41b36 | Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man? | Boolean question | yes | 2016-11-09T00:00:00 | 2015-11-12T00:00:00 | 0.1754 |
ed5f6412 | Will the SEC approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange? | Boolean question | no | 2016-03-21T00:00:00 | 2015-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.3621 |
349510c6 | By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-14T00:00:00 | 2015-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.4122 |
f998ba3c | Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 | 2015-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.6146 |
c03f4b71 | Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-06-28T00:00:00 | 2016-01-05T00:00:00 | 0.7027 |
ffd21eb0 | Will EVE Online die by 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-30T00:00:00 | 2016-01-07T00:00:00 | 0.6477 |
5240b963 | Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017? | Boolean question | no | 2017-06-28T00:00:00 | 2016-01-11T00:00:00 | 0.4712 |
6d5658e1 | Will "Planet Nine" be discovered in 2016? | Boolean question | no | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 | 2016-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.5374 |
90eea550 | Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016? | Boolean question | yes | 2016-04-01T00:00:00 | 2016-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.5804 |
dce13dce | Will 2016 be the warmest year on record? | Boolean question | yes | 2017-01-18T00:00:00 | 2016-02-04T00:00:00 | 0.6676 |
7d8b52a7 | Will a full prototype car be unveiled at the Tesla Model 3 event on March 31? | Boolean question | yes | 2016-04-01T00:00:00 | 2016-03-03T00:00:00 | 0.6391 |
130ebe37 | Will the US develop a new satellite for early-warning of severe geomagnetic storms? | Boolean question | yes | 2017-05-31T00:00:00 | 2016-03-08T00:00:00 | 0.4704 |
c5a6e56f | Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-05T00:00:00 | 2016-03-10T00:00:00 | 0.5483 |
e8ec8a46 | Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-30T00:00:00 | 2016-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.703 |
2564f603 | Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-02T00:00:00 | 2016-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.463 |
3eb24ce3 | Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-07-31T00:00:00 | 2016-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.6019 |
72ec2c73 | A medical pathway to complete painlessness? | Boolean question | no | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 2016-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.5582 |
ea127629 | A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-19T00:00:00 | 2016-04-06T00:00:00 | 0.534 |
d8b39ff4 | To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years? | Boolean question | no | 2022-03-17T00:00:00 | 2016-04-06T00:00:00 | 0.5119 |
82d67c29 | To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 | 2016-04-09T00:00:00 | 0.4921 |
1a029dfa | To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else? | Boolean question | no | 2018-06-05T00:00:00 | 2016-04-09T00:00:00 | 0.4889 |
25498202 | Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee? | Boolean question | no | 2016-07-27T00:00:00 | 2016-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.6939 |
d33a8c8a | Zapping Zika #4: GMO Mosquitos in Puerto Rico? | Boolean question | no | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 | 2016-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.5171 |
b794c8ca | Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window? | Boolean question | no | 2018-02-08T00:00:00 | 2016-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.5936 |
200e6706 | Will marijuana be voted legal in California in 2016? | Boolean question | yes | 2016-11-09T00:00:00 | 2016-05-03T00:00:00 | 0.669 |
b6e3797e | Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 | 2016-05-17T00:00:00 | 0.4495 |
99db93db | Will the National Ignition Facility announce a shot at break-even fusion by start of 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 | 2016-05-17T00:00:00 | 0.6008 |
18f89a12 | Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. Senate in 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2017-01-20T00:00:00 | 2016-05-27T00:00:00 | 0.4797 |
1a984794 | Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2016-05-31T00:00:00 | 0.6137 |
cdb7ffe3 | Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2016-06-06T00:00:00 | 0.5066 |
46a7207d | Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-06-01T00:00:00 | 2016-06-06T00:00:00 | 0.5624 |
1cc2d3b8 | Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-30T00:00:00 | 2016-06-08T00:00:00 | 0.6045 |
86f8d607 | Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-11T00:00:00 | 2016-06-09T00:00:00 | 0.5603 |
d75a4a0e | Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-27T00:00:00 | 2016-06-09T00:00:00 | 0.6448 |
3a0f41b3 | Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2016-06-10T00:00:00 | 0.4382 |
ff9f6664 | Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2016-06-10T00:00:00 | 0.6488 |
fa3604fb | Will the California Drought end in 2017? | Boolean question | yes | 2017-05-01T00:00:00 | 2016-06-26T00:00:00 | 0.1945 |
56d493ec | Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year? | Boolean question | no | 2016-12-30T00:00:00 | 2016-06-29T00:00:00 | 0.4249 |
1569d10d | Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-02-04T00:00:00 | 2016-07-04T00:00:00 | 0.4981 |
596fd943 | Will police officers in the United States shoot and kill more than 1000 people in 2016? | Boolean question | no | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 | 2016-07-07T00:00:00 | 0.3564 |
fb19286b | Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017. | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 | 2016-07-08T00:00:00 | 0.6611 |
c1feae4f | Are we in a simulated reality? Part I | Boolean question | no | 2018-06-05T00:00:00 | 2016-07-08T00:00:00 | 0.6765 |
504df1d7 | Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned? | Boolean question | no | 2017-02-16T00:00:00 | 2016-07-14T00:00:00 | 0.4142 |
352e556f | Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-31T00:00:00 | 2016-07-14T00:00:00 | 0.3011 |
a06897fd | Airships by 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2016-07-16T00:00:00 | 0.5351 |
45691f77 | Will the banana plague reach Latin America? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2016-07-19T00:00:00 | 0.26 |
4b18584d | Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-11T00:00:00 | 2016-07-21T00:00:00 | 0.4138 |
a575704e | Clinical trials of a "universal" snakebite antidote? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-26T00:00:00 | 2016-07-23T00:00:00 | 0.4902 |
4b6e894d | Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin? | Boolean question | no | 2017-10-21T00:00:00 | 2016-07-23T00:00:00 | 0.2887 |
71f0f7c9 | Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map? | Boolean question | no | 2016-11-09T00:00:00 | 2016-08-03T00:00:00 | 0.5836 |
73d853e7 | SpaceX's blueprint to Mars presented in late September? | Boolean question | yes | 2016-09-28T00:00:00 | 2016-08-05T00:00:00 | 0.524 |
809309d2 | A merger of Bayer and Monsanto by Q1 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2017-03-30T00:00:00 | 2016-08-14T00:00:00 | 0.4763 |
883e6f0a | 1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2021-03-15T00:00:00 | 2016-09-02T00:00:00 | 0.3406 |
59873548 | 20 more languages extinct by 2021? | Boolean question | no | 2021-08-08T00:00:00 | 2016-09-02T00:00:00 | 0.4501 |
8336a2db | Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race? | Boolean question | yes | 2016-10-20T00:00:00 | 2016-09-14T00:00:00 | 0.7005 |
eef8388c | Will Obama pardon Snowden? | Boolean question | no | 2017-01-20T00:00:00 | 2016-09-14T00:00:00 | 0.7096 |
dea1cd55 | 2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9? | Boolean question | no | 2016-11-10T00:00:00 | 2016-09-20T00:00:00 | 0.614 |
891fc4a7 | Will Disney own Twitter by the end of Q2 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2017-06-25T00:00:00 | 2016-09-29T00:00:00 | 0.7046 |
1b3e57c4 | Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm? | Boolean question | no | 2019-02-26T00:00:00 | 2016-10-07T00:00:00 | 0.4793 |
4794357e | Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2016-10-10T00:00:00 | 0.6253 |
bf67bac7 | Will Planet Nine Emerge from Hiding Soon? | Boolean question | no | 2017-01-27T00:00:00 | 2016-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.6488 |
a6ddb2a0 | Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 | 2016-11-14T00:00:00 | 0.6877 |
e49e6832 | Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | Boolean question | no | 2017-09-19T00:00:00 | 2016-11-30T00:00:00 | 0.3963 |
7db15cb2 | Will there be an attack on the electrical grid for a major U.S. city in 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2017-12-21T00:00:00 | 2016-11-30T00:00:00 | 0.6888 |
c16ee711 | Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-04-04T00:00:00 | 2016-11-30T00:00:00 | 0.6489 |
9f755378 | A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-12-19T00:00:00 | 2016-12-09T00:00:00 | 0.629 |
7abd424b | Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 | 2016-12-13T00:00:00 | 0.6851 |
62cf230f | Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 | 2016-12-13T00:00:00 | 0.6133 |
c948a01d | When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2? | timeframe prediction | 2019-01-24 | 2019-02-05T00:00:00 | 2016-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5561 |
69983352 | When will programs write programs for us? | timeframe prediction | 2021-07-07 | 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2016-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5234 |
c5c8f3c3 | Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 | 2016-12-28T00:00:00 | 0.5995 |
cb5caac5 | When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US? | timeframe prediction | 2021-01-01 | 2021-02-01T00:00:00 | 2017-01-09T00:00:00 | 0.5793 |
e33323c4 | When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit? | timeframe prediction | 2020-05-30 | 2020-05-30T00:00:00 | 2017-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.5822 |
510206d4 | How much Wall will, in the end, be built? | quantity estimation | 727 | 2021-09-16T00:00:00 | 2017-02-05T00:00:00 | 0.3956 |
0bdbc413 | Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-12-20T00:00:00 | 2017-02-08T00:00:00 | 0.6173 |
ad71615f | Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-04T00:00:00 | 2017-02-11T00:00:00 | 0.6921 |
eec37b24 | Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-03-21T00:00:00 | 2017-02-11T00:00:00 | 0.5854 |
4c8d69d1 | Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-30T00:00:00 | 2017-03-10T00:00:00 | 0.5033 |
69aa905d | Any charges by end of 2017 by FBI's investigation of Russia-Trump campaign ties? | Boolean question | yes | 2017-10-30T00:00:00 | 2017-03-22T00:00:00 | 0.4067 |
b9ce7bdd | How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020? | quantity estimation | 738 | 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2017-03-27T00:00:00 | 0.58 |
3ed56b5a | When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3? | timeframe prediction | 2018-12-01 | 2019-03-01T00:00:00 | 2017-03-30T00:00:00 | 0.5609 |
8d790477 | Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC? | Boolean question | no | 2020-05-16T00:00:00 | 2017-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.6264 |
864be404 | Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-02-01T00:00:00 | 2017-05-17T00:00:00 | 0.6014 |
f01aa117 | Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 | 2017-05-29T00:00:00 | 0.527 |
9fb9b267 | Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2017-06-09T00:00:00 | 0.5246 |
c311fbef | Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented? | Boolean question | no | 2020-03-29T00:00:00 | 2017-06-11T00:00:00 | 0.5948 |
72a2a622 | First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-08T00:00:00 | 2017-06-28T00:00:00 | 0.5037 |
6578f0b3 | Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months? | Boolean question | no | 2018-02-04T00:00:00 | 2017-07-20T00:00:00 | 0.4563 |
ac108092 | Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-12T00:00:00 | 2017-07-20T00:00:00 | 0.3652 |
a56f4332 | Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller? | Boolean question | no | 2018-01-05T00:00:00 | 2017-07-21T00:00:00 | 0.498 |
8c288fba | When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators? | timeframe prediction | 2018-10-02 | 2018-10-22T00:00:00 | 2017-08-03T00:00:00 | 0.6067 |
bb7b450c | How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022? | quantity estimation | 221476000 | 2022-10-18T00:00:00 | 2017-08-04T00:00:00 | 0.5914 |
f4af1617 | Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2017-08-09T00:00:00 | 0.6961 |
c7246593 | Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-06-15T00:00:00 | 2017-08-11T00:00:00 | 0.28 |
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