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Steel Shares Weak, General List Irregular: Trading at 3-Month Low
NEW YORK, Aug. 30 (AP)‰ÛÓSteels were weak in a mixed stock market today as the list continued to wallow in the pre-labor day doldrums. Volume was the lightest in about three months.</br></br>Some of the leading steels were sold heavily as sentiment regarding these stocks was affected by the dividend cuts of Wheeling Steel and Republic Steel, as well as prospects of further difficulty with the Federal Government.</br></br>Armeo Steel refused to comply with subpoenas for company data issued by the Senate Subcommittee on Antitrust and Monopoly. Armeo stock sank Hi to 46.</br></br>Volume dropped to 2.26 million shares from 2.9 million yesterday. And was the smallest since May 21 when the same volume was reported.</br></br>Priced moved upward feebly at the start but increasing softness among the steel shares helped erase even this small rise.
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No Serious Game Plan For the Postwar Era
In the wake of the Iraqi offer to withdraw from Kuwait, which could be the first step toward a quick end to the war, the Bush administration's economic plans, based on such a scenario, merit a close look.</br></br>The prospect that the recession, if peace should really come about, would end by mid-year, has been the basis of the spectacular run-up in Wall Street, despite day-by-day bad news in the real economy and the well-advertised possibility of a bloody ground war.</br></br>The stock market, sometimes the nation's most accurate leading indicator, looks beyond current events. But skeptics question whether Wall Street - and the administration - have looked far enough down the road.</br></br>The bull-marketeers are betting that consumer and business confidence will immediately re-emerge after the war is over, lubricated by declining oil prices and low interest rates.</br></br>There can be little doubt that the war's end, when it comes, will bring a sense of relief, generating a positive effect on the economy: Consumers, who have been holding back in buying big-ticket items or spending money on vacations, will loosen up to a substantial extent.
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Bank of America Vows $750 Billion For Communities
Bank of America Corp., facing community-activist opposition to its $46 billion acquisition of FleetBoston Financial Corp., said it will lend and invest $750 billion over 10 years in communities for programs such as affordable housing.</br></br>Some consumer advocates have been against the acquisition because of concerns that Bank of America wouldn't make affordable housing a priority. Opponents of the bank's plan said yesterday the pledge is shy of details such as how much money might be invested in a specific community such as Boston, where FleetBoston is based. Those opponents said they will make their opposition known at public hearings that the Federal Reserve Board has scheduled next week in Boston and San Francisco.</br></br>The Fed extended the original Dec. 19 deadline for public comment to allow for next week's hearings because of opposition from groups that want to ensure that Bank of America, of Charlotte, N.C., commits to lending to low- and moderate-income groups. Still, the acquisition isn't expected to be derailed.</br></br>After what was then NationsBank Corp. agreed to acquire BankAmerica Corp. in 1998, the combined Bank of America pledged to invest $350 billion over 10 years. The bank said yesterday it has completed the fifth year of that pledge. Since 1999, the bank said it has loaned and invested $230 billion in economic-development initiatives. FleetBoston is in the last year of its own five-year, $14.6 billion commitment that ultimately exceeded that amount by about $4 billion.</br></br>The new pledge replaces both of those commitments, but activists want more from the bank.
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Big Blocks Boost Volume
NEW YORK, Aug. 14 (AP)‰ÛÓThe stock market gained a little ground today with low-priced issues grabbing the spotlight.</br></br>The small advance was pretty much a duplicate of yesterday‰Ûªs except that it was accompanied by heavier trading.</br></br>Turnover climbed to 3,370,000 shares from yesterday‰Ûªs 2,790.000 ‰Û¢ shares. An unusual number of substantial blocks, particularly in the low-priced items, accounted for the bulk of the increase.</br></br>The Associated Press average of 60 stocks rose 30 cents to $185.50. Industrials were up 80 cents, rails off 10 cents and utilities up 10 cents.</br></br>Some observers expressed concern over the market‰Ûªs current behavior. Said one analyst, ‰ÛÏthe quality of leadership has deteriorated and the institutions are staying on the sidelines.‰Û
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Home Builders Seen Tapping Public Market --- Plans by Taylor Morrison for an IPO Could Signal Beginning of a Trend, as Housing Construction Continues to Surge
Plans by home builder Taylor Morrison to sell stock in an initial public offering could be the first in a wave of private builders going public, a trend that could alter the ranks of the nation's top builders.</br></br>Taylor Morrison, based in Scottsdale, Ariz., and which builds mainly higher-end homes in states from Florida to California, was a unit of British conglomerate Taylor Wimpey PLC until early 2011, when it was sold for nearly $1 billion to a group of U.S. private-equity funds. Last week, those funds filed a prospectus to sell $250 million of shares to the public.</br></br>Alex Barron, an independent analyst with the Housing Research Center in El Paso, Texas, said now is "an ideal time for a company like Taylor Morrison to consider going public," because investor appetite for builder stocks is strong and new-home sales and prices are on the rise.</br></br>The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index, which tracks seven publicly traded builders, is up 70% so far this year, although it has given back some of its gains in the past month. Sales of new homes hit a four-year high in September, and the $237,700 median sales price of a new home in October was 7% higher than in 2010, according to the Census Bureau.</br></br>If Taylor Morrison's IPO is completed, the company would be the sixth-largest publicly traded home builder in the U.S. based on 2011 revenue, ahead of KB Home and behind Toll Brothers Inc. It also would be the first home builder to go public in more than 15 years.
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Beefsteak and the Cost of Living
The cost of living figures for February are a severe blow to the administration and its political standing. More broadly, they are a severe blow to the country generally in its struggle with inflation. The upward creep of prices is proving less manageable than most Americans had expected. The increase, seasonally adjusted, was 0.2 per cent in November, the month when the freeze ended on wages and prices. It was 0.4 per cent in December, 0.3 per cent in January, and now we learn that it was 0.5 per cent last month. The explanation that we are experiencing merely a transient ‰ÛÏbulge‰Û following The freeze has worn very thin.</br></br>About three-fourths of the February increase was generated by higher food prices, a particularly sensitive matter for politicians, and more than two-thirds of the increase in food prices was owed to the cost of meat. Mr. Grayson, the chairman of the Price Commission, has called hearings in April to inquire into meat prices. He is likely to discover that one explanation of the mystery lies no farther away than the White House, where President Nixon has been urging his Secretary of Agriculture, Mr. Butz, to keep farm income up while he simultaneously urges Mr. Grayson to keep prices d6wn.</br></br>The Grayson hearings will doubtless also be told what agricultural economists have been saying very clearly, and what Congressman Rosenthal‰Ûªs hearings for the Democratic Study Group learned last week. Meat pricing is a classic example of the workings of supply and demand, with no very satisfactory solution in sight. The national system of controls is now moving from the broad, confident generalizations of last fall to the minute, skull-splitting particulars of administration and enforcement. The meat business is a splendid example of the difficulty.</br></br>Americans like red meat, and are eating more of it than ever. Consumption of beef in this country rose from 63 pounds per capita in 1950 to 113 pounds last year. The prices of meat on the hoof are now moving through the upswing of a fairly normal cycle. The causes go back to corn blight and dry weather in the Midwest two summers ago. The supply of grain fell, the price rose, and farmers cut back the number of animals that they, were feeding for the market. But there is also evidence that in the past several months a most unusual thing has happened: the retailers appear to have widened their margins in a time of rising prices. The explanation is that consumer demand is now so strong that the stores can sell their meat even at higher markups. As one economist puts it, people</br></br>Mr. Stein, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, offers the hopeful forecast that ‰ÛÏmarket forces‰Û will pull down meat prices by encouraging fanners to produce more. As usual, there is not much reason to hope that Mr. Stein is right. A relatively small increase in beef Is now in the feed yards, enough to bring down the price several cents a pound this spring. But, at the same time, the supply of pork will decline because the breeding of pigs is seasonal. Any significant increase In the number of hogs on their way to the butcher will require about a full year. Since cattle grow and breed more slowly, it will take several years to increase the supply of beefsteak and roasts more than marginally. It would also take, of course, a sharp change of heart at the Agriculture Department, where Secretary Butz is still advising farmers to hold down supply to hold up prices.
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Dollar ends lower on doubts on timing of decline in German interest rates
NEW YORK -- Doubts about just how soon German interest rates will fall conspired with a rebound in the yen and some disappointing news on the U.S. economy to send the dollar skidding.</br></br>But dealers said the dollar found good buying around the day's lows, indicating investors still are confident the U.S. currency eventually is headed higher.</br></br>Late in New York, the dollar was quoted at 1.6395 marks, down from 1.6546 marks late Monday in New York. The U.S. currency also was changing hands at 117.60 yen, off from 118.74 yen. Sterling was trading at $1.4490, up from $1.4390.</br></br>About midday Wednesday in Tokyo, the dollar was trading at 117.34 yen and at 1.6392 marks.</br></br>"It looks like just a correction," said Peter Dembinski, a senior trader at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in New York. "It doesn't look like the dollar is going to fall out of bed here."
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Oracle Jumps 11% on Strong Growth; Circuit City Shares Ease, CarMax Hits All-Time High, Morgan Stanley Moves Up
Stocks rose sharply, with Oracle's market value jumping nearly $10 billion, Circuit City Stores' shares edging down after a strong start, Morgan Stanley moving up on a double-digit rise in earnings, CarMax reaching a record and Darden Restaurants advancing, aided by its Olive Garden eateries.</br></br>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.28 points, or 0.63%, to 11613.19 -- within 109.79 points, or 1%, of its all-time closing high of 11722.98, as 25 of its 30 component stocks rose. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 30.52, or 1.37%, to 2252.89, up eight of the past nine sessions. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index edged up 6.87, or 0.52%, to 1325.18, after touching a five-and-a-half-year high. The momentum placed the indexes at fresh four-month highs.</br></br>"The market got off to a good start on strong earnings and lower oil prices," said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at Trusco Capital Management. "And the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged certainly wasn't bad news."</br></br>Oracle (Nasdaq) jumped $1.80, or 11%, to $17.93, a five-year high, adding $9.4 billion to its market capitalization. The gain helped return the Nasdaq 100 Index of nonfinancial stocks to positive territory for 2006, after being down for four months. Oracle's fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 29%, besting Wall Street estimates. Revenue climbed 30%.</br></br>Software stocks rose on the news. Citrix Systems moved up 2.21, or 6.5%, to 36.28; Tibco Software gained 61 cents, or 7%, to 9.31; and Red Hat advanced 1.07, or 4.5%, to 25.07, all on the Nasdaq.
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TWA Proposes To Buy Back All of Its Debt --- Ailing Airline Seeks to Shed Heavy Interest Burden, Offers Discounted Prices
Trans World Airlines, in a restructuring effort, proposed to purchase its $1.2 billion in outstanding debt for cash, offering debtholders deeply discounted prices.</br></br>The move is an attempt to rid TWA of an expensive item -- interest expenses on the debt -- which has hamstrung the carrier since owner Carl Icahn took it private in 1988. The Mt. Kisco, N.Y., airline's highly leveraged position has grown more troublesome in recent months amid high jet fuel prices and the effects on air travel of the recession and the Mideast war. Since January, TWA has failed to meet interest and principal payments due on its debt.</br></br>In another indication of TWA's troubles, the carrier yesterday posted a first-quarter net loss of $88.2 million, compared with a year-ago net loss of $143 million. This year's loss was narrowed by the recent $110 million sale of TWA's Chicago-London route authority to AMR Corp.'s American Airlines.</br></br>In the first quarter, TWA reported an operating loss of $144.4 million, wider than the year-earlier's $100.7 million operating loss. Revenue for the quarter fell 19% to $820.2 million from $1.01 billion a year-earlier.</br></br>In the debt-purchase offer, Mr. Icahn estimates he personally would lose "in excess" of $40 million on TWA debt he holds. Still, some debt specialists believe a successful restructuring could strengthen the airline and make it a much more valuable property for Mr. Icahn, who controls 90% of its stock.
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Trading Pace Slows as Stocks Retreat: Background News Drab
NEW YORK. Aug. 25 (AP)‰ÛÓThe stock market took a well-deserved rest today as it posted its first decline in five straight sessions. Trading was dull.</br></br>Profit taking was not only a normal expectation but was well overdue, analysts said. For the first time in 16 straight sessions, minus signs exceeded plus signs.</br></br>It was characteristic of the market in recent weeks that as prices softened volume declined, the total today being 2.680.000 shares compared with yesterday‰Ûªs 3.500,000. This is construed as a bullish sign by brokers.</br></br>The business news remained drab. The dullness was emphasized by a sharp decline in machine tool orders, an important barometer of plans for industrial expansion, and by Gulf Oil's and Humble Oil's cut of refinery- operations because cf oversupply.</br></br>Telautograph was the most active stock, rising 2'.åÇ at 13‰Ûªa on 89.500 shares. This stock reached a new high following publication of a report of an agreement permitting the company's equipment to transmit written messages at ordinary telephone rates. American Motors was second, off '‰ÐʉÛ÷t at 23"s. Third was Oliver Corp., up 17åÈ at 213i.
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An Imploding Telecom Sector Tests Darwinism
Washington, which gave birth to telecommunications competition 25 years ago, is now leading that industry toward its Darwinian climax.</br></br>A ruthless restructuring has moved into its final phase in the past 10 days as three local telecom companies threw in the towel, starting what is projected to be the biggest industry implosion since real estate developers took down the savings and loan industry a decade ago.</br></br>E.spire Communications Inc. of Herndon has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Metrocall Inc. of Alexandria says it may have to do the same. PSINet Inc. of Ashburn is trying to avoid it, but isn't given much chance by industry insiders. More local companies are lined up behind them.</br></br>Each of these companies was set up to serve a different piece of the telecommunications market. E.spire was into local and long- distance voice. Metrocall sold wireless paging. PSINet's specialty was high-speed Internet services. Stockholders of this trio of companies have seen $14 billion in stock market value wiped out. Investors stuck with $5 billion worth of high-risk, high-yield "junk bonds" issued by the companies are expected to collect only pennies on the dollar for their debts.</br></br>These are the first victims of an epidemic that by some estimates could wipe out more than a thousand telecommunications providers in the next few years.
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Family Secret: More Parents Are Avoiding the Nanny Tax
A funny thing happened on the way to the Internet age: A lot of parents stopped paying the nanny tax.</br></br>Household-employment tax filings for nannies and other domestic workers fell 10% in the five years ended in 2006, based on the latest Internal Revenue Service data -- a period when the number of domestic employees actually rose, according to Labor Department data. Since 1996, filings are down 26%, to 225,441. Growth in online hiring, and the casual, cost-averse attitudes of parents who find their nannies on the Web, are among the causes, parents and industry sources say.</br></br>It's never wise to evade taxes, but the trend poses particular risks now. The slumping economy means more nannies are likely to be laid off and then file for unemployment benefits, drawing the scrutiny of tax regulators, attorneys say. Also, avoiding the taxes leaves nannies devoid of a safety net, including Medicare and Social Security benefits, in an era when they may need it more than ever.</br></br>Of course, paying nanny taxes is about as much fun as having a root canal. People who pay household workers more than $1,600 a year are required to file onerous paperwork to cover Social Security and Medicare taxes of 7.65% of gross pay; federal unemployment insurance of 0.8%; state unemployment insurance, usually of 2% to 4%, and other state and local taxes. The employee's share is another 7.65% for Social Security and Medicare, plus any state and local taxes. Many parents spend $30 to $70 a month to have a payroll service handle all the red tape.</br></br>In the past, parents more often hired full-time nannies through brick-and-mortar agencies, which often exerted arm-twisting to persuade both parents and nannies to pay taxes. Also, periodic derailings of presidential cabinet appointees over nanny-tax violations, including most recently failed Bush nominee Bernard Kerik in 2004, highlighted the hazards for scofflaws.
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Howard Co. Budget Plan Is 7% Bigger; Proposal Boosts Services Without Raising Taxes
Howard County Executive Charles I. Ecker, relying on a modest recovery from a two-year recession, proposed a $289 million operating budget yesterday that calls for two new schools, two new libraries, a public safety facility and new government service centers.</br></br>Ecker's proposed budget for the coming year is 7 percent larger than Howard's current spending plan, making the growth in the 1993- 94 budget unusual in the Washington area.</br></br>In addition to the schools and libraries, the budget calls for a police and fire station, two new nutrition sites for the elderly and an addition to the jail.</br></br>The budget also has a $3.1 million contingency fund to cover a 3 percent cost-of-living raise for all county and school employees on Jan. 1. The money may be spent only if local government collects more revenue from income taxes than it had anticipated.</br></br>The proposed salary increase would be less than what school officials had agreed to pay their teachers, but Ecker, a former school administrator, said the Board of Education should be able to make up the difference by cutting other items in the school budget.
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Symington Deplores Inflation 'Scare' Talk
COLUMBUS, Ohio. June U fUPI)‰ÛÓSen. Stuart Symington (D-Mo.1; "charged today that Administration efforts to ‰ÛÏfrighten the people with non existent inflation" are de pressing the bond market.</br></br>The Senator said that ‰ÛÏday ! after day the President is using his high office as a platform from which to issue statements which frighten the American people about inflation.‰Û</br></br>In a speech at a Democratic dinner he added: ‰ÛÏThe net re-Isult of these scare talks is apprehension in the minds of many of our citizens about the soundness of our Government and of our economy.</br></br>‰ÛÏTherefore, Govern ment bonds are further depressed, and as a result the high cost of financing the Government debt grows even higher.‰Û</br></br>Symington said he favors increasing the Federal debt limit ‰ÛÏfor one year only, to give a period for the Administration to try to get its financial house in order."
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Consumer Price Index in November Rose only 0.4%, Sparking Call for Rate Cut
WASHINGTON -- Of all the problems the economy has, inflation apparently isn't one of them.</br></br>November's consumer price index rose 0.4%, the Labor Department said. While that's higher than October's 0.1% increase, it doesn't challenge the view that inflation is relatively well-behaved.</br></br>A whitefly infestation in California caused produce prices to skyrocket -- lettuce prices leapt 44.5% -- as grocery store food prices rose 0.8% overall. Many economists feel that the food price jump, plus an increase in gasoline prices, overstated the November increase. The index's core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, climbed just 0.3%.</br></br>The report sparked further calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates once more. The consumer price figures are "certainly not putting up any impediments" to further easing, said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the National Council of Savings Institutions. On the other hand, he added, the index alone won't be enough to induce a rate drop.</br></br>This year, the overall consumer price index has grown at a 2.9% annual rate, compared with 6.4% last year.
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Factory Orders Fell in January
Orders to U.S. factories fell 3.8 percent in January to their lowest level in 14 months, fresh evidence that manufacturers continue to struggle during the economic slowdown.</br></br>But another report showed that growth in Americans' productivity - - or output per hour of labor -- while slower, was still solid in the fourth quarter despite the sharp economic slowdown.</br></br>The Commerce Department reported yesterday that the January decline in factory orders, which followed a 0.6 percent increase in December, was led by a sharp drop in demand for airplanes, cars and other transportation equipment. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders fell 0.3 percent, the third decrease in the last four months.</br></br>Factory orders rose 5.3 percent, the largest increase in a year, in the category of industrial machinery orders, which include those for computers. That followed a 3.2 percent decline in December.</br></br>January's overall performance was slightly weaker than the 3.5 percent decrease many analysts were expecting. The decline pulled orders to a seasonally adjusted $366.5 billion, the lowest level since November 1999.
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U.S. Stocks Set 5-Month Low, Tumbling 1.7% --- Trading Is Extremely Light As Corporate and War News Continue to Damp Enthusiasm
WITH CORPORATE and war news continuing to occupy investors, blue-chip stocks fell to their lowest level in nearly five months, reinforcing some traders' views that the market is unlikely to turn around soon.</br></br>In one of the lightest trading sessions of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 132.99 points, or 1.7%, to 7704.87 -- its worst performance since Oct. 10.</br></br>Other indexes mirrored the Dow industrials' performance. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 1.54%, or 12.82 points, to 821.99, and stands less than five points above what would be a low for the year.</br></br>Approaching the third anniversary on Monday of its all-time closing high of 5048.62, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell nearly 1%, or 12.52 points, to 1307.77. The index is now 30 points away from its 2003 low point and that milestone of three years ago seems like a dream. Nasdaq volume fell to 1.21 million from 1.24 million.</br></br>A "bunker mentality" is governing the markets, said John O'Donoghue, a managing director of trading at Credit Suisse First Boston. "Volumes are still anemic," he said, and "anything that even had a whiff of safety to it is just being sold as well."
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Treasurys Drop, Led by Long Bond
Treasurys ended a volatile session lower, buffeted by economic and market-based forces.</br></br>In the market's starting hours, prices had been able to hold relatively steady after data showed the service sector contracted more than expected last month. But that buoyancy offered only a temporary reprieve from persistent selling pressure over recent days, as the market was weighed down by a modest pullback in stock prices and turbulence tied to deals in the corporate-bond market.</br></br>Most losses were spread evenly across the curve, but the long bond was a standout loser in the session. The selling led to wider spreads between short- and longer-dated bonds.</br></br>Late afternoon, the benchmark 10-year note was down 21/32, or $6.5625 per $1,000 face value, at 94 26/32. Its yield rose to 3.764% from 3.680% Tuesday, as yields move inversely to prices. The 30-year bond fell 1 20/32 to yield 4.564%.</br></br>Bonds had gotten support as the Federal Reserve bought $7.248 billion in Treasurys maturing between December 2013 and August 2015.On the supply side, the Treasury Department said it would sell $75 billion in notes and bonds next week, a record amount for a quarterly refunding.
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Home Prices: How's Your Town Doing?
[Home values keep climbing across the U.S. But we looked at 500 neighborhoods -- and found slowdowns in some surprising spots. June Fletcher tours the towns to watch.]</br></br>THEY'RE UP 16% in a Washington, D.C., suburb, but losing steam in Denver. And just outside Los Angeles, home prices in the hillside town of La Canada Flintridge have shot up more than 23% from a year earlier. "We've been discovered," says Michael Braverman, who expects to get $500,000 more for his home than he paid five years ago.</br></br>Forget watching the stock market. The best -- and maybe the only -- game in town these days is the remarkably resilient real-estate market. Last year alone, amid all the bad news, home prices still rose by 7% nationally -- and some economists believe things will be almost as strong this year. And yet, many homeowners are holding their breath, worrying about the "bubble" and asking: What about my town?</br></br>We've got some answers. In an exhaustive town-by-town survey, we looked at home prices in more than 500 upscale ZIP Codes, taking a snapshot of prices last year and comparing them with the year before. We found that nobody in Greenwich, Conn., or Southern California is losing sleep. But who'd have thought duplex-lined Beach Haven, N.J., would be in the top 10 nationally for growth -- or that so many other overlooked communities would be so strong (introducing . . . Mattapoisett, Mass.). In last place? No, it's not Silicon Valley.</br></br>But our biggest surprise, given all the news, was just how many hot markets seem to be cooling off. Indeed, according to our survey by housing specialists Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, the growth rate of prices in fully a third of our towns has slowed from the same time frame a year earlier. "There's just air coming out of the market," says David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, who expects price growth to slow nationally to about 4% this year.
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Price Volatility Has Gone
Price volatility has left the bond market. Volatility not only measures the change in price of bonds, but also the depth and breadth of that change. The volatility on 30-year Treasury bonds is currently around 7.50 percent, down from the 22 percent to 24 percent level incurred in 1986.</br></br>Another good measure of volatility is the change in yield levels in the different bond sectors over the past several years. By checking the change from the high yield to the low yield in a particular year, one can determine a measure of the volatility in that sector. The change in price is reflected in the change in yield.</br></br>The yield swings in 30-year Treasury bonds, from high to low, have been as follows: 1982, 421 basis points; 1983, 170 basis points; 1984, 245 basis points; 1985, 258 basis points; 1986, 239 basis points, and so far in 1987, a mere 33 basis points. At the beginning of 1987, the yield on the 30-year was 7.39 percent, and it now stands at 7.50 percent, a spread of only 11 basis points. Similiar yield swings existed in the municipal market over the same years.</br></br>There are several reasons why volatility has been squeezed out of the bond markets. Perhaps the most important factor is the diminished role of the Federal Reserve in the Treasury market. In the past, most fixed-income investors have looked for guidance by attempting to perceive the Fed's monetary policy. Economic data was closely monitored to see how it would influence the Fed's policy, while the federal funds rate was scrutinized as a true indicator of the Fed's intent.</br></br>In the past, the Fed would ease credit to stimulate the economy, but now it is perceived that the economy will largely improve through the reduction of the trade deficit.
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Fed Sued Over Credit Law Changes
Consumers Union yesterday filed suit accusing the Federal Reserve Board of acting ‰ÛÏwithout authority‰Û in abolishing the cooling-off period in which house buyers have three days to back out of certain financing arrangements.</br></br>A provision of the 1969 Trutb-in-Lending Act, the cooling-off period was designed as a safeguard for consumers who secured credit by putting up their houses as collateral ‰ÛÓ only to realize late that they could actually lose their houses in the event of a default.</br></br>The controversy began in July when the Fed amended its Regulation Z ‰ÛÓ Truth in Lending ‰ÛÓ exempting ‰ÛÏindividual transactions under an open end credit arrangement when the creditor and the seller was not the same or related persons.‰Û</br></br>In other words, if a consumer made a large purchase using such an open-ended credit arrangement, and his house was listed as collateral on the credit plan, he would not, under the new provision, have three days to back out.</br></br>Consumers Union called the Fed amendment proposal ‰ÛÏarbitrary and capricious,‰Û and said it would ‰ÛÏonce again (leave) unwary consumers vulnerable to loss of their homes.‰Û
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U.S. Firms Are Quick to Spot an Opportunity in Moscow
Proof positive that what's bad for the bulk of humanity is good for lawyers can be found these days in the Moscow satellite offices run by two D.C. law firms. It won't make anyone with devalued rubles feel better, but the economic crisis in Russia has been surprisingly easy on Steptoe & Johnson and Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld, both of which have Moscow outposts.</br></br>The 13-lawyer Moscow office of Akin, Gump reports that its business mix has changed, without drastic financial consequences. Michael Waller, the managing partner there, said in a very long-distance phone interview that before the crisis the firm's capital markets lawyers were its main moneymakers. Those lawyers are basically idle now, but bankruptcy attorneys are more than picking up the slack. In fact, while the rest of the country, and many law firms in Moscow, are laying off workers, Akin Gump hired a new lawyer a few weeks ago.</br></br>"You have to structure your business so that you can provide services in a restructuring period as well as an expansion period," Waller said, predicting that revenue for the year will match last year's numbers. "We were incredibly busy for the first six or seven months of the year, and now we're just normally busy."</br></br>Meanwhile, Steptoe & Johnson Chairman Lon Bouknight reports the firm's six-lawyer office is considering some "new opportunities." "We represent people and companies that have been there for years and wouldn't have the ability to pick up and leave, even if they had the desire -- and they don't have the desire," he said. Firms specializing in capital markets have gotten pummeled, but the bulk of Steptoe's billables are generated through work on contracts, joint ventures and natural resource issues, he said.</br></br>"A lot of contracts need to be restructured now, and those natural resources are going to stay there in the ground notwithstanding the economic problems," Bouknight said. Moreover, the downturn will inevitably lead to a drop in the real estate market, which could translate into lower office rents.
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Circulate a Mistake: Fed Must Decide Fate of Flawed $50 Bills
That's the value of an estimated 30 million of the newly redesigned S50 bills it has sitting in bank vaults around tile country. The bills are among the first that came off the presses at theBureauof Engraving an d Printing this year. But after Federal Reserve officials spotted a minor printing flaw on the bills, the Fed said it may not place them in circulation.</br></br>The,error‰ÛÓsaid to be visible to the naked eye‰ÛÓconsists of gapsinthetinyconcentriclines behind the enlarged portrait of President Ulysses S. Grant on the bills.</br></br>Those lines are among the anti-counterfeiting devices designers at the bureau have worked into anew scries of high-tech currency that the Treasury Department is introducing. ‰ÛÏThis series of fine lines is very difficult to reproduce with color copiers, computer scanners and other traditional printing technologies,‰Û theTreasury Department said when the first of tlie redesigned currency‰ÛÓthe $100 bill‰ÛÓwas introduced in late 1995.</br></br>Bureau spokesman Larry Felix said such flaws as the broken lines are notunusual in other bills. But since the new $50 bill is supposed to represent the best currency printing in tlie world, officials at the Fed are reluctant to introduce a bill with an obvious flaw.</br></br>‰ÛÏSome don‰Ûªt look too bad," said Fed spokesman Joseph R. Coyne. He said banking officials want to study the error longer before deciding whether to release tlie bills.
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Kerry Targets Job Outsourcing With Corporate-Tax Overhaul
WASHINGTON -- Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry, looking to capitalize on growing discontent over job losses, is proposing a broad restructuring of the corporate tax code to prod multinational companies to invest more in the U.S.</br></br>The Massachusetts senator's plan, to be unveiled in a speech today in Detroit, would largely eliminate the tax break that lets U.S. companies defer tax payments on income earned abroad -- sometimes for a decade or more. That break costs the U.S. Treasury about $12 billion annually. Mr. Kerry would use the additional revenue to reduce the overall U.S. corporate tax rate to 33.25% from the current 35%.</br></br>The stick-and-carrot approach would encourage companies to shift more of their investments to the U.S., Mr. Kerry's aides said.</br></br>Mr. Kerry also would offer U.S. companies a one-year tax break to repatriate earnings now held overseas, a pot of money that the Congressional Research Service estimates at around $600 billion. During that year, repatriated earnings would be taxed at a 10% rate. Congressional Republicans have proposed similar tax holidays. Kerry aides didn't have an estimate of the amount of revenue they expect would be produced by that gambit.</br></br>But Mr. Kerry is counting on the money to pay for another part of his plan: a two-year, $22 billion employer tax credit that would cover payroll taxes for new employees. The credit would be available to manufacturers, "industries affected by outsourcing," and small businesses that employ fewer than 100 people.
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Letters to the Editor: How Deficits Affect Interest Rates
In your Dec. 27 editorial "Flacking for Rubinomics" you misinterpreted the nature, analysis and conclusions of our research paper on "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Discipline."</br></br>The main point of our paper is that standard economic reasoning, present in almost all macroeconomic textbooks, implies that budget deficits reduce national saving and therefore reduce the future income and living standards of American households. For example, under conservative assumptions and a methodology developed by Harvard professor Greg Mankiw, we show that the $5 trillion decline in projected 10-year surpluses over the past two years translates roughly into a reduction in future income of $1,500 per household per year. That is the real cost of a lack of fiscal discipline.</br></br>These costs occur regardless of whether budget deficits raise interest rates, which reduces Americans' domestic investment, or cause a capital inflow, which reduces Americans' net investment overseas. Therefore, the debate about deficits and interest rates is a bit of a red herring.</br></br>Nonetheless, recent evidence supports the view that deficits affect interest rates. This evidence comes from almost all major macro-econometric models, almost all studies done since 1990, and in particular from studies that properly focus on the relation between interest rates and expected future deficits (rather than current deficits). These facts were somehow omitted in your editorial.</br></br>Contrary to the what you wrote, we emphasize the distinction between the deficit itself and the policies that create the deficit. Thus, for example, the 2001 tax cut had positive effects on economic growth from cutting marginal tax rates, but negative effects due to the increase in the deficit. On balance, all of the existing studies show that the negative effects largely offset and may even outweigh the positive effects. As a result, the net effect of the tax cut on growth is likely to be small and could be negative.
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Review of international markets: Year-end 1992: Currency tradres, analysts expect the dollar to post its oft-predicted rebound this year
Play it again, Sam.</br></br>For the past two years, currency analysts and traders predicted that a recovering U.S. economy and rising U.S. interest rates, coupled with slowing European economies and lower rates in Europe would spell a stronger dollar. They were wrong.</br></br>Guess what? They're singing the same tune again for 1993.</br></br>"Interest rate differentials will narrow in favor of the dollar. The U.S. economy will grow faster than most of its trading partners. U.S. equity markets look relatively attractive," says Lawrence A. Veit, an international economist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. "Some of the political and social uncertainties that exist abroad will not exist in the U.S., and we start from a position of the dollar being undervalued."</br></br>Many of these factors are already behind the dollar's rebound late last year from record lows in September.
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Inventories Decline As Companies Keep An Eye on Recovery
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. companies, keeping a close eye on the economic recovery, whittled excess stocks of unsold goods in February for the 13th consecutive month.</br></br>Stockpiles of unsold goods on shelves and back lots dipped by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in February, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. That pushed the value of inventories down to $1.13 trillion, the lowest level since November 1999.</br></br>The drop in inventories came even as businesses' sales slid by 0.9%, the biggest decline in three months.</br></br>With inventories getting lean, prospects are raised that factories, which are already slowly boosting production after a sharp cutback, will need to crank it up more in the coming months, economists said. That's something that would help the country as it recovers from a recession.</br></br>As the economy stages a comeback, companies are working hard to gauge consumers' and businesses' appetite for their products, something that can be especially tricky when the economy is in transition, economists said.
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WEEKEND INVESTOR --- Is This a Bubble? --- As stocks hit new records and small investors -- finally -- return to the market, some observers are getting worried; Here's what investors should do now
At first, it sure looks like a bubble.</br></br>Some hot stocks have more than doubled in price so far this year. The initial-public-offering market has been torrid. Small investors are buying stocks again.</br></br>The "bubble talk" flared up even more after Twitter started trading on Nov. 7, when the social-media company's shares surged 73%.</br></br>They still are up 69%.</br></br>Electric-car company Tesla Motors has rocketed 300% higher in 2013, and online retailing giant Amazon.com has jumped 47%. There are so many superlatives in the stock market that it is easy to forget the S&P 500 has set 36 records this year on the way to its 26% gain -- or that the federal debt-ceiling crisis threatened to disrupt the economy just a month ago.
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Corporate Economists Warn of Rising Rates: Corporate Economists: Rates Rising
HOT SPRINGS, Va., May 11-Economists for some of the nation‰Ûªs biggest corporations foresee a generally healthy economy for the remainder of 1984, but warn of a gradual but continuing rise in interest rates into 1985.</br></br>A ‰ÛÏgrowing minority‰Û of the corporate economists anticipate a recession beginning at the end of 1985 unless significant action is taken to reduce the federal budget deficit, said John R. Opel, chairman of International Business Machines Corp.</br></br>Opel presented the economic forecast to members of the Business Council, the top executives of nearly 100 major corporations and financial institutions, who are holding their spring meeting here this week'.</br></br>Several of the 19 corporate economists who participated in the forecast said the prime lending rate could reach 15 percent next year, from its current level of 12.5 percent. The majority, however, expects an increase of perhaps one percentage point during 1984 and 1985. (The projection was made shortly before the most recent increase in the prime.)</br></br>Citicorp Chairman Walter B. Wriston said there could be a further increase of about one-half a percentage point in rates in the near future: ‰ÛÏIt depends on what the Fed does.‰Û Wriston said the Federal Reserve Board‰Ûªs recent actions are keeping the growth rates of the money supply ‰ÛÏa little bit on the tight side‰Û compared with the Fed‰Ûªs growth targets. ‰ÛÏI‰Ûªd be happier if they were higher,‰Û he said.
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Nike Inc. Reports 35% Profit Drop, Beats Estimates
Nike Inc. topped expectations for first-quarter profit but continued to be hurt by weak footwear sales and orders in Asia and the U.S. market.</br></br>The Beaverton, Ore., shoe company said net income in the fiscal first period ended Aug. 31 declined 35% to $163.8 million, or 56 cents a diluted share, from the year-earlier level of $253.1 million, or 85 cents a share. The latest results are eight cents a share above Wall Street's per-share consensus of 48 cents, as tallied by First Call Corp.</br></br>But Nike's good news came mostly from spending less money in the period than expected. Revenue dropped 9.5% to $2.5 billion from $2.77 billion, while orders for footwear and apparel to be delivered between September and January declined 15% from the year-earlier period.</br></br>Philip H. Knight, Nike's chairman and chief executive officer, said economic signals out of Asia continue to be negative, requiring additional cost-reduction steps. So the company also announced it intends to cut about 300 jobs in its Asia Pacific region, or about 15% of its work force in the region. "There is not a lot of daylight as far as the economic crisis in Asia is concerned," Mr. Knight said in a conference call with analysts and reporters.</br></br>Nike released its results after stock markets closed. In New York Stock Exchange composite trading, its shares fell $2.3125 to $33.75 and didn't trade after hours.
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Housing Market Is Showing Some Cracks --- Overall, Sales Are Healthy, But Demand Is Slowing In a Handful of Cities
These days, economists have plenty to worry about. Add what's happening in Leesburg, Va., to the list.</br></br>In that Washington, D.C., suburb, real-estate agent Ray Mauk has been trying to sell a four-bedroom, two-story house for the past two months. He figured it would sell "in a day or two," given the recent frenzy for homes in the area. But instead, he has been forced to reduce the $395,000 asking price three times -- lowering it by $5,000 on each occasion. "The market," says Mr. Mauk, just "isn't there."</br></br>Despite a slowing economy, the U.S. housing market has held strong and is widely credited with having helped to stave off a recession. But in a handful of cities across the country, cracks are starting to appear in the housing market's once-solid foundation.</br></br>From San Francisco to Minneapolis to Denver, some real-estate agents say demand is slowing and the number of available homes is increasing -- often a sign of weakness. Meanwhile, home builder Centex Homes, a unit of Centex Corp. in Dallas, is offering a $10,000 discount or free amenities on some new homes in the Atlanta area to stimulate demand. And in Dallas, where inventories are up 24% from last year, price reductions are becoming more common.</br></br>Although home sales overall remain healthy by historical standards, discounting and rising inventories "are the indications that usually start off telling me we're going to see a [tougher] market," says Petey Parker, vice president of Ebby Halliday Realtors in Dallas. "It's a different market" than it was a few months ago, adds Marsha Sell, a sales associate at Coldwell Banker Buckhead Brokers in Atlanta. "Every agent I talk to is experiencing fewer showings on their listings."
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A $50 Billion `Bug'; Fed Official: Year 2000 Computer Fix Could Slow Economy
U.S. businesses are likely to spend at least $50 billion fixing Year 2000 computer glitches, a Federal Reserve official said yesterday, providing the federal government's first official estimate of such costs.</br></br>The massive effort to reprogram millions of computers to recognize dates in the new millennium and, therefore, continue to function, could trim U.S. economic growth by a tenth of a percentage point in each of the next two years, he added.</br></br>The problem is "real and serious," Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward W. Kelley Jr. told a Senate committee, saying the total worldwide repair bill could top $300 billion. Kelley's projections bolster earlier forecasts by corporate analysts.</br></br>Millions of computers -- some of which are central to running financial markets, air traffic control systems and even elevators in office buildings -- cannot distinguish between the year 1900 and the year 2000 because an old programming practice expressed years as two digits. Unless they are repaired, these systems will process the year 2000 as "00," and the computer will think it's somehow been transported back to 1900, which could cause it to shut down or turn out erroneous data.</br></br>As the year 2000 gets closer, this "bug" is attracting high-level attention in both government offices and corporate boardrooms. The Securities and Exchange Commission is now requiring companies with publicly traded shares to disclose how much they're spending to fix the problem and how far along they are. Businesses have started to question readiness of their suppliers and distributors, while "headhunting" firms have started to offer lucrative signing bonuses for increasingly scarce programmers. And yesterday, the Senate took the unusual step of establishing a committee solely to press for rapid work on the issue.
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Boeing Nears Major Order From China --- Nation Is Expected to Buy $5 Billion of Airliners, But Trade Status Is Issue
Boeing Co. is within weeks of wrapping up a huge order from China for more than 50 commercial airliners valued at more than $5 billion, people familiar with the talks said.</br></br>The negotiations are expected to produce orders for as many as 15 of the company's new twin-engine 777 jetliners, plus a similar number of orders for both midsize 757 jets and for the smallest 737 planes. The purchase also is expected to include a number of wide-bodied 747-400 jumbo jets, probably less than 10.</br></br>The talks are in their final stages, the people said, awaiting the pending U.S. decision on whether to extend China's "most-favored-nation" trading status. One person said the talks slowed down for a while, just as aircraft-order negotiations do every year when the U.S. renewal of the trading status for China is pending. But there were direct discussions in China earlier this month between Boeing airplane unit President Ronald Woodard and Chinese airline and aviation officials. And people with knowledge of the talks said they have been progressing lately because most officials in Washington expect that the MFN decision to be announced by President Clinton will favor a renewal, with only mild penalties</br></br>Seattle-based Boeing, which counts on China for about 14% of its commercial aircraft orders, has made no secret of its reliance on the fast-growing Chinese market, especially when other world air-travel markets still are pulling slowly out of a severe recession.</br></br>A spokesman for Boeing's commercial-airplane unit would say only, "Serious discussions are under way. MFN is the big question right now."
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Rockefeller Backs Caution on Interest Rate Rise
Federal Reserve Board Chairman G. William Miller‰Ûªs resistance to a significant tightening of monetary policy ‰Û¢;won endorsement' last night from ;‰Û¢ Chase Manhattan Bank Chairman ; David Rockefeller.</br></br>;‰Û¢ At the bank‰Ûªs annual Washington ;!dinner-press conference, Rockefeller ; said Miller ‰Û÷ correctly‰Û had opposed ! ‰ÛÏdramatic‰Û changes in Federal Reserve policy. For the first time in a series ;'of such press functions over the years, 'Rockefeller‰Ûªs remarks were on the rec-1 ord.'</br></br>I Miller has come under public and ; private pressure from Carter admini-j.stration officials to adopt a more aus-i tere money policy in order to signal a ‰Û¢ continued commitment to fighting initiation.</br></br>I In a Washington Post interview and i similar statements to other pubhca-! tions recently. Miller has said that for the time being he sees no need to change the present policy stance of the Federal Reserve. He fears that too precipitious a move could create a severe recession. ‰Û¢</br></br>Rockefeller said last night that he favored ‰ÛÏa modest continued pressure on fnoney and credit,‰Û and that the economy could probably stand "a little more tightening before we relax.‰Û ‰ÛÏIn going around the country, one sees a vigorous economy. So perhaps the economy needs a little further indication of [the wisdom] of slowing things down.‰Û
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Towns Try to Take Back Water Systems; Water Fights Are Simmering Across the Country as Municipalities Want to Regain Privately Owned Systems
Water fights are simmering in small towns across the country this summer, as rate increases irk residents and spur local governments to try to take over privately owned water systems.</br></br>Municipalities in Massachusetts, California and Texas have recently filed lawsuits or set ballot measures in a bid to gain control of their water systems. Private firms have defended their rate increases, saying they have had to spend money to improve the infrastructure and are entitled to make a profit.</br></br>Residents of Ojai, a small town in Southern California, will vote later this month on whether to fund the purchase of the water system serving them. In Blue Mound, Texas, the mayor has vowed to appeal a July court ruling that prevented his town from operating its water system. Also last month, a trial concluded in Superior Court in Worcester, Mass., in a lawsuit filed by Oxford, Mass., over the sale of its water infrastructure. A judge's ruling is pending.</br></br>In the 1980s and 1990s, private water companies pushed to buy or manage municipal systems at the same time the costs of maintaining these systems were rising because of age, which made sales attractive to cities, said Tony Arnold, a University of Louisville law professor who has studied water privatization. "In order to make a profit [and] invest in upgrades to the system, the companies [had] to raise water rates substantially and quickly," he said.</br></br>Joseph Zeneski, the town manager of Oxford, said he objects to residents having to pay a consolidated water rate that he said Aquarian Water Co. of Bridgeport, Conn., set for several towns. He thinks towns should pay varying rates because their water comes from different sources and that Oxford is unfairly subsidizing a water-treatment plant in another town. "They don't want to give up the Oxford water system," he said of Aquarion.
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Bush Parts Ways With Aide on Job Losses; 'We Need to Act In This Country'
President Bush, visiting this industrial state to tout his prescriptions for employment growth, distanced himself from his chief economist, who this week spoke approvingly of jobs moving overseas.</br></br>The president, speaking Thursday at a high school here, did not mention the aide by name but expressed his concern about the expatriation of jobs. "There are people looking for work because jobs have gone overseas," he said. "And we need to act in this country. We need to act to make sure there are more jobs at home, and people are more likely to retain a job."</br></br>On Monday, N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in releasing the annual Economic Report of the President that the "offshoring" of U.S. service jobs is "the latest manifestation of the gains from trade that economists have talked about" for centuries. "Outsourcing is just a new way of doing international trade," he told reporters. "More things are tradable than were tradable, in the past and that's a good thing."</br></br>The report, similarly, said that "when a good or service is produced more cheaply abroad, it makes more sense to import it than make or provide it domestically."</br></br>Several economists, including some Democrats, have defended Mankiw, a Harvard economist, for speaking the economic truth. But his remarks have become a political liability for the president. Even House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), a Bush ally, joined the criticism Wednesday.
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Analysts Worry Dana Is Sputtering; Even With Commercial-Truck Environment Strong, Auto-Parts Supplier Draws Concern
Dow Jones Newswires</br></br>DANA CORP.'S DISMAL third-quarter results have led some analysts to worry that the auto-parts supplier could face dwindling cash and a weakened balance sheet this year, even amid a boom in one of its key markets.</br></br>The Toledo, Ohio, company faces a critical year in which it must fix its operations and renegotiate bank agreements. As with many auto suppliers, Dana is struggling with higher raw-material costs and exposure to the decline in U.S. market share by Detroit's big auto makers, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. Ford accounted for 25% of Dana's revenue in 2004 and GM 11%.</br></br>Dana Chief Financial Officer Robert Richter said it expects cash flow from operations and the sale of three business lines will provide adequate liquidity.</br></br>Dana, which makes axles, frames and other parts for cars and commercial trucks, reported a third-quarter net loss of $1.27 billion, or $8.50 a share, on revenue of $2.41 billion. While charges were responsible for most of that loss, the company lost $63 million on operations despite a 13% increase in revenue compared with the year- earlier period. Dana's stock was down 19% last week.
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Another Credit Crunch Feared
You can get the same effect with chairs, by inserting screws into the tegs, but not driving them fully home.</br></br>Mask sliding doors at the top and bottom with tape ‰ÛÓ they won't run properly with paint on these edges ‰ÛÓ and support them on panel pins driven into the back.</br></br>Mortgage lending institutions should prepare for another credit crunch rather than counting on the Federal Reserve System to maintain stability in money and capital markets, according to Edward E. Edwards, professor of finance at Indiana University.</br></br>Writing in the current issue of the newsletter distributed by MGIC Investment Corp., Edwards concludes that the Fed in its report had laid the blame for housing fluctuations at other doors, primarily inflation and fiscal policies, and accepts none of the blame for these fluctuations because of monetary policies.</br></br>‰ÛÏThe idea that the Federal Reserve can do no wrong seems to be deeply implanted in the System,‰Û Edwards writes.
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WASHINGTON INVESTING: Tracing the Causes of BDM‰Ûªs Market Ups and Downs
One of the most puzzling questions about the stock market is why a share of stock can be worth $32 one day but is worth only $22 a few weeks later, even though nothing has happened to alter the company‰Ûªs financial situation.</br></br>This question comes to mind because of the recent experience of BDM International of McLean, which recently marked its 25th anniversary. BDM is one of Washington‰Ûªs top defense contractors, a blue chip company whose profits have grown during the past five years at an annual rate of 28 percent.</br></br>A share of stock, which cost $15.50 when it was first sold in 1980, today would be worth $113.30, adjusted for splits. That‰Ûªs an increase of 631 percent or 39 percent a year.</br></br>In 1985, BDM did well. Its revenues hit a record $250 million, while profits totaled $10.5 million. Both were up 31 percent from 1984. President Earle C. Williams called it ‰ÛÏBDM‰Ûªs best year yet.‰Û</br></br>Then, 1986 rolled in on the heels of a new bull market and the rosy glow got even warmer. BDM‰Ûªs first-quarter earnings, reported in April, were up 34 percent. Second-quarter earnings, published in August, rose 39 percent.
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Leading Stocks Slump $1 to $4 a Share
NEW YORK, Aug. 1 UP)‰ÛӉ۪The recently strong blue chips suffered a sharp fall today in the stock market.</br></br>These popular high priced and investment-grade stocks have been among the best acting issues in the list.</br></br>Today they took it on the chin for losses of 1 to around 4 points and more. Reynolds Metals was down 10 points at 217 and touched a low of 213. *</br></br>Among wide losers were Bethlehem Steel off 4%, Sears Roebuck 2Yb, Douglas Aircraft 2Y4, Anaconda 1%, Allied Chemical 2Vå£, Du Pont 3%, Coca Cola 3V4, Union Pacific 2, Standard Oil (NJ) 2%, and General Motors 1% ‰Û¢</br></br>General Motors hit a high of 138 and closed at its low of 134%. After the close, directors declared a dividend of $1.50 as compared with $1 paid in two previous quarters.
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Hindustan Unilever Props up Sensex
MUMBAI -- Hindustan Unilever Ltd., India's largest consumer goods maker by sales, lived up to its reputation of being a defensive stock by defending India's benchmark stock index Tuesday.</br></br>Hindustan Unilever -- one of the 30 shares in the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index -- gained 7.5% to single-handedly boost the benchmark. The rise was driven by the company's higher-than-expected profit of 13.31 billion rupees ($237 million) for the April-June quarter, announced late Monday. Part of the profit came from the sale of some of the company's properties.</br></br>The news from Hindustan Unilever was a shot of energy in a market which was otherwise depressed over concerns about Spain's deteriorating economic prospects.</br></br>Other major Asian markets closed lower Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.24% to 8,488.09 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 0.79% to close at 18,903.20</br></br>India's Sensex finished the day higher, albeit marginally, by 0.24% at 16,918.1.
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Retailers Report Modest Gains For January --- Post-Christmas Drop Off In Spending Less Severe Than Concerns Expected
The nation's major retailers reported modest sales gains for January, allaying fears that consumers would retrench more than normal after the Christmas spending binge. The merchandisers forecast similar gains for the rest of 1987.</br></br>January is traditionally the slowest, the least profitable and thus the least significant month of the year for retailers. Much of their business is generated by clearance sales of Christmas and winter merchandise.</br></br>Many store chains said the last-minute rush by Christmas shoppers cleared enough space on their store shelves that they didn't need to resort to as deep price cuts as they had in the past two years. Rocky Hill, Conn.-based Ames Department Stores Inc. didn't hold the three-day, 20%-off sale that it did in January 1986, said Ralph Shulansky, chief financial officer. "We were less promotional than last year," he said.</br></br>Some retailers and economists had projected a big spending drop for January because of the evaporation of many of last year's spending stimulants: falling oil prices, dropping interest rates and anticipation of new tax laws, which, among other things, ended the deductibility of sales taxes.</br></br>Industry executives and analysts said yesterday that they expect consumers to retreat from big ticket items, such as cars, but to spur modest sales gains of general merchandise. Kenneth Macke, chairman and chief executive officer of Dayton Hudson Corp., said he expects sales for its stores open more than one year to grow less than 10% monthly through 1987. "We see that 1987 will be a lot like 1986," he said. "We have to adjust to the fact that inflation is less and sales increases will not be as high."
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Mortgage Loan Field Seen Entering New Era
| The Mortgage Bankers Association has evaluated the economic forces that make an early. return to traditional ' mortgage funding techniques and old market relationships unlikely‰ÛÓeven assuming inflation is halted.</br></br>The dismantling of mortgage management departments by life insurance companies, expected reluctance to problems are overcome, and the possibility of broader investment powers for savings and loans, mortgage company mergers, the entry of conglomerates into the market, and GNMA-backed instruments,.. all are regarded as motivators propelling the real estate finance industry in a new direction.</br></br>over, mortgages may not as a rule be placed with investors as individual investments, but may be used as collateral for paper which investors, both institutional and personal, will find attractive.</br></br>The mortgage investment trust offers, one vehicle for financing home mortgages that has by no means been fully ex-</br></br>1968 authorized the insurance under the auspices of the Government National Mortgage Association of guaranteed securities backed by FHA and VA mortgages‰ÛÓan innovation which tho Association is doing all it can to help bring into being. veloprnent suggests other possibilities for the substitution of collateralized paper for investment in individual mortgages.
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Jobless Rate Fell To 7.7% in July As Payrolls Rose --- Report Suggests Economy Remains at a Standstill; Special Program Helped
WASHINGTON -- The latest employment report suggests that the labor market improved during the past month but that the economy is still at a virtual standstill.</br></br>"We're still not going anywhere," said Robert Dederick, chief economist for Northern Trust Co. in Chicago.</br></br>The Labor Department's employment report for July showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 7.7% of the work force from 7.8%. And 198,000 new jobs were created in July after a revised decline of 63,000 in June.</br></br>But 75,000 of the new jobs came from federally funded summer jobs for teenagers. While those jobs may have helped to lower the unemployment rate of teen-agers by 2.6 percentage points, it did hardly anything to help adults, who are the driving force behind consumer spending.</br></br>But there is also a positive spin to the job growth. With such a slow economy, any job-creation is good. Aside from the growth in government positions, the service sector added 110,000 jobs in July, following a meager increase in June. Within services, eating and drinking places added 20,000 jobs last month.
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World News: Banker Says Euro Zone Will Avoid Double Dip
VIENNA -- The euro zone will avoid a double-dip recession despite signs of weakening in Germany's economy, a top European Central Bank official said, suggesting the hurdle for interest-rate cuts or other stimulus remains high.</br></br>In an interview, Austrian central bank Gov. Ewald Nowotny struck back at recent criticisms from the U.S. over Europe's handling of the Greek debt crisis, saying Europeans can handle their own affairs.</br></br>He also expressed frustration at the increasing demands being placed on the ECB to contain the debt crisis, and signaled there is little more the central bank can do to spur growth. "I do not think there are many possibilities for further specific actions," Mr. Nowotny said in the interview Monday in Vienna.</br></br>The ECB at its Sept. 8 meeting downgraded its outlook for the rest of this year and 2012, a surprising reversal for a central bank that raised interest rates two months earlier. Many economists took that as a signal that the ECB might lower its main policy rate, currently 1.5%, if needed to protect the recovery. Other major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, have policy rates closer to zero, leaving the ECB as the only major developed-country central bank with any firepower on rates.</br></br>Yet Mr. Nowotny's remarks suggest officials would need to see much more weakness to spur a rethink on interest-rate levels.
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Family Finance: Rise in Home Prices Likely to Slow As Rates Climb, Fed Study Says
Dow Jones Newswires</br></br>WASHINGTON -- U.S. house prices are likely to grow at the slowest pace in more than three decades as interest rates climb and land prices take a tumble over the next three years, researchers at the Federal Reserve have estimated in a new study.</br></br>The study, published on the bank's Web site recently, asserts that if U.S. disposable income and short-term interest rates climb as much as Wall Street expects them to, nominal existing-house prices would increase a cumulative 2.6% over the next three years. That would mark the lowest rate since the government began keeping records in 1970. The number implies high odds that house prices will decline in inflation-adjusted terms.</br></br>The conclusions validate the unease of many private economists who fear the U.S. housing market, having benefited recently from rapid price gains that helped maintain strong consumer spending through a recession, may become a source of economic instability as interest rates climb. Prices of existing homes rose by more than 20% cumulatively over the last three years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The association has been predicting only a modest slowdown for the next few years.</br></br>"Of primary concern to some analysts is whether the recent run-up in aggregate home prices will be somewhat reversed, much like the 1985-90 and 1990-1995 experience," when inflation-adjusted house prices declined in several major metropolitan areas, write the authors of the Fed study, Morris Davis and Jonathan Heathcote. Mr. Davis is a Fed economist, and Mr. Heathcote is an assistant professor of economics at Georgetown University.
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Trading In Your Pension
Deciding whether to take a pension in a lump sum or monthly payment can be a combination of self-analysis ("How much risk can I stand?") and prognostication ("When will I die?"). But there are clues in one's own behavior that can help make the choice easier.</br></br>The question received a burst of attention earlier this year, when more than 140,000 salaried retirees at General Motors and Ford Motor were told they could trade in their lifetime of monthly checks in exchange for a one-time payment.</br></br>In the past, companies offered lump sums to older workers to entice them to retire early, and because in some situations, the payouts don't have to include the full value of the pension.</br></br>Today, many companies are offering lump sums because they can calculate the payout using a higher interest rate than they have in the past, which reduces the size of the payouts.</br></br>Though lump-sum payouts transfer all the risk--investment, inflation, interest rate and longevity--to the retirees, many nonetheless find the prospect of receiving a large sum of money seductive, and are tempted to forfeit what is essentially a guaranteed monthly paycheck they and their spouse can't outlive.
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The Morning Brief: How Bush Would Help Beleaguered Homeowners
The Wall Street Journal Online</br></br>The Morning Brief, a look at the day's biggest news, is emailed to subscribers by 7 a.m. every business day. Sign up for the e-mail here.</br></br>Low-income borrowers on the brink of losing their homes are said to be the main target of plans President Bush will outline today, in his administration's first policy response to the wave of defaulting mortgages that has reverberated through the global finance system and so shaken the markets.</br></br>Ahead of this morning's speech, administration officials offered to news media a glance of what he will propose: an expansion of the Federal Housing Administration's loan-insurance program to include borrowers who have missed payments but could still be helped by refinancing; a higher limit on FHA insurance premiums, which could let the agency increase the number of high-risk loans it insures; and a suspension of taxes on mortgage debt that lenders forgive, which could help people who still live in their homes and hope to avoid foreclosure by lowering their loan balance and payments. But the Los Angeles Times says it's unclear how much the program will help many struggling homeowners in high-priced markets like California and New York, where "many people who took out adjustable-rate loans in recent years at low 'teaser' rates and now face sharp jumps in their payments may be unable to afford any new market-rate loan, even with government insurance."</br></br>Administration officials said the FHA estimates the expansion of its default-insurance program can help another 80,000 homeowners qualify for refinancing next year -- raising the total number of its refinancing guarantees to 240,000 -- The Wall Street Journal reports. But the FHA's limits on loan size and borrower criteria mean the changes will only help a small portion of homeowners, the Journal adds. And more than two million loans are expected to adjust to higher rates over the next two years. Beyond the rule changes, the Treasury and Housing and Urban Development departments plan to work with lenders and other players in the industry to get less stringent loan products to people in danger of defaulting. And the New York Times cites an official saying there will also be a "jawboning of lenders to persuade them not to foreclose on some borrowers."
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Short Rally Trims Market Loss: Chrysler Shows Gain
NEW YORK, April 4‰ÛÓ Buyers and sellers fought to a virtual draw in Wall Street today. The stock market opened on a continuation of Monday‰Ûªs selling, made back its loss early in the afternoon and then slipped to a small deficit at the close.</br></br>to 604 lead over advances, contrasting with Monday‰Ûªs session, when losers outnumbered gainers by better than three lowest prices of the day. Polaroid, though was on the active list and ahead half a point to 177, while Scientific Data gained 2% to 95%.</br></br>The Dow Jones industrial average, down more than two and a half points in the first half hour, climbed to a small profit in mid-afternon, but finished at 859.19, off 0.78 point. The mid-day rally carried the Dow back above the technically significant 860 level‰ÛÓand volume expanded as the market rose ‰ÛÓ but stocks were unable to hold the gain.</br></br>Standard and Poor‰Ûªs 500-stock composite was down 0.02 point to 89.22, but the NYSE index rose 0.01 point to 48.99.</br></br>Volume for the day totaled 8.75 million shares, up from 8.53 million in the previous session. Most of the extra volume came in the afternoon.
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Letters to the Editor: Minimum-Wage Boost Has 'Ripple Effect'
Your May 3 editorial ("Minimum Wage, Maximum Cover-Up") concerning the Congressional Budget Office study on the impact of a minimum-wage hike was right on the target. It is sad that the House Democratic leadership saw fit to suppress the numbers because they showed the devastating direct impact of a higher wage on jobs and inflation.</br></br>Another issue the backers of a raise choose to ignore is the "ripple effect" of a higher minimum wage. If the lowest salary in a company is increased, those earning more will seek a higher paycheck to maintain basic salary differentials. This would be equally as damaging to the economy as the direct costs.</br></br>A soon-to-be-published University of Chicago study concludes that when this ripple effect is taken into account, the additional cost to American business of a $5.05 minimum wage would be $60 billion a year. Only about half of this would come directly from raising the pay for minimum-wage jobs.</br></br>It is obvious this would have a major impact on all aspects of our economy, ranging from consumer prices and overall inflation to international competitiveness and unemployment rates. This is truly the hidden cost of a minimum-wage increase.</br></br>Robert L. Martin
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Census Says Hispanics Made Economic Gains;Per Capita Income Trails Blacks' and Whites'
America's burgeoning Hispanic community is a population both at the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder and one experiencing a measure of rapid economic upward mobility, the Census Bureau reported yesterday.</br></br>On the one hand, the combined income of Hispanic households increased nearly 70 percent, largely as a result of rapid population growth since the early 1980s. The figures underscore the greatly heightened purchasing power and presence of the Hispanic population in this country. The median income of Hispanic households grew by 9 percent since 1983.</br></br>At the same time, Hispanics continue to suffer disproportionately from poverty and low educational attainment, according to the report. Hispanic per capita income continues to be below that of both blacks and whites.</br></br>Taken together, the figures point to a diverse population, both economically and socially, with Puerto Ricans much more likely to be poor and live in households headed by females, and Cubans more likely than other Hispanic populations to earn more than $50,000 a year.</br></br>"The Hispanic population is now a very large, significant presence, particularly in certain areas of the country," said Jeffrey Passel, a demographer at the Urban Institute. "There are roughly as many Hispanics in the country today as there were blacks in 1970. So we're talking about a sizable presence."
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1,160 Deaths a Day . . .
In the escalating war against smoking -- a habit that has taken many more lives than all of America's wars combined -- some states are seeking compensation from tobacco companies for medical expenses for smoking-related injuries, and prosecutors are contemplating perjury and conspiracy charges against tobacco executives who testified to disbelief in the obvious -- the addictive nature of nicotine. In this war, ironies and paradoxes abound.</br></br>Smokers shiver outside their workplaces, pariahs in a country the father of which was a tobacco farmer. Probably the most powerful disincentive for smoking -- peer pressure -- is also the most powerful incentive for people to start smoking. Most smokers start before age 18 and start because of peer pressure in the search for status and glamour. However, smoking now seems dumb and declasse.</br></br>Cigarettes are the world's most heavily taxed consumer product. U.S. state taxes range up to Washington's 81.5 cents a pack, and in 20 industrialized nations cigarette taxes are even higher, sometimes five times higher. The ideal revenue yield from such taxes would be zero.</br></br>By some calculations, the social costs of smoking (in health care, lost productivity from illness and shortened lives, and fire damage) about equal the sum produced by cigarette taxes plus the savings that smoking produces in the form of reduced spending for Social Security, pensions and nursing home care for smokers. If every smoker quit today, that would be a crisis for Social Security and all pension plans that incorporate actuarial assumptions about millions of smokers dying before they can receive benefits they otherwise would collect.</br></br>Cigarettes generate interesting product liability litigation because cigarettes are harmful when used as intended. The fact that cigarettes are harmful has been broadly understood for several generations and today is almost universally acknowledged. (The one-third of smokers who die prematurely because of smoking lose on average 20 years of life expectancy, or 29 minutes per cigarette.) The consensus about this, combined with the warning labels on cigarette packs and advertising, has helped immunize tobacco companies against liability for damage their products do. Juries have spurned plaintiffs who have said they deserve recompense from tobacco companies because "everyone knows" smoking is harmful.
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Black Friday and other dark days
That's the philosophy of retailers at the holiday season, judging by the predictably exuberant quality of their ads. Doorbuster deals! Midnight madness! Gobblepalooza!</br></br>Such hyperventilation has become par for the course on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving that traditionally kicks off the holiday shopping season. That one day accounted for nearly $11 billion in sales last year, according to research firm ShopperTrak.</br></br>But as the country stumbles toward economic recovery, one short day is apparently no longer enough to win the hearts and minds - and wallets - of American consumers, particularly when retailers rely on holiday shopping to ring up as much as half of their annual sales. In recent years, the industry has filled the calendar with a slew of new landmark shopping days to keep consumers fired up right through Christmas.</br></br>There is Small Business Saturday, started by American Express this year to send customers to those long-suffering mom-and-pop shops. Then comes Cyber Monday, created by a trade group, when we return to work after Thanksgiving and collectively slack off by shopping online. Free Shipping Day, the brainchild of a coupon site, comes next. And Super Saturday, a retail industry term, rounds out the season on the last weekend before Christmas.</br></br>As the calendar has become more crowded, retailers have resorted to increasingly far-fetched ideas to stand out. Infomercials tried to muscle into the game with a short-lived Info-Mania Sunday in 2007. That was the same year Wal-Mart called for Friday to be stretched over two days - a 48-hour Black Friday to accommodate its deals. This year, social coupon site Groupon wins "Most Creative" with the introduction of Grouponicus, a "holiday" when deals last longer than the usual one day.
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Trading Slows as Stocks Slip Slightly: Selling Hits Chrysler, AMC
NEW YORK, Nov. 16 (AP)‰ÛÓThe Stock Market today went through a further digestive process of its November gains and registered a slight decline‰ÛÓits first clear-cut loss since Oct. 27. Trading slowed.</br></br>In yesterday‰Ûªs mixed session, more stocks fell than rose but the popular averages achieved record highs due to gains by blue chips.</br></br>The highlight of today‰Ûªs session was heavy selling in Amcrian Motors and Chrysler, both reacting to news. American Motors declared a lower cash dividend but voted a slock dividend. At the same lime, a sharp drop in earnings was reported. Chrysler Auto sales declined.</br></br>The market drop was generally expected in view of the prolonged, day-to-day rally. Normal profit-taking took its course. Most of this was out of the way by mid-afternoon, however, and prices began to meet support. The session ended on a note of rising prices, with dealings quickening.</br></br>The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 1.01 to 733.33. The Associated Press average of 60 stocks dipped .20 to 268.60 with industrials up .30 to a new high for the year, rails down .50 and utilities down .30.
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Sales of Apartments In Manhattan Slow After Stocks' Plunge --- But Turmoil on Wall Street Had No Deflating Effect On High Cost of Housing
NEW YORK -- Manhattan apartment sales slowed to a crawl in the wake of last week's stock market crash, but Wall's Street's turmoil didn't ignite any fire sales in the nation's most expensive housing market, according to brokers, developers and real estate lawyers.</br></br>"It's very quiet. Customers are hanging back. The phones aren't ringing the same way," said Esther Kaplan, an official at Corcoran Group, a Manhattan broker.</br></br>"I've talked to a dozen brokers, and I don't know anybody who has people even walking in their doors right now," added Stephen Raphael, a real estate attorney.</br></br>A few buyers who have gone to contract are trying to get their deposits back, brokers said. "A couple of lawyers have called to get their clients out of deals," said Martin Cohn, vice president, sales, at J.I. Sopher & Co., a Manhattan broker. "People are fishing for a way out. Some of them said to me, 'I don't have the money.'"</br></br>While the evidence is mostly anecdotal, real estate sources said the most hard-pressed group are newly rich, younger buyers who are purchasing their first expensive housing.
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Rockwell Collins Revenue Rises, Earnings Drop; Company Raises Lower End of Earnings Guidance for Year by Five Cents
Rockwell Collins Inc. said its fiscal second-quarter revenue jumped 12%, as a recent acquisition helped push up sales.</br></br>Its earnings declined, however, largely due to an unfavorable comparison to the prior year's quarter.</br></br>The company also raised the lower end of its earnings guidance for the current fiscal year by five cents. It now expects per-share earnings from continuing operations between $4.40 and $4.55 a share. It backed its revenue outlook.</br></br>The aerospace and defense electronics group's revenue has been pressured over much of the past year as there was uncertainty about U.S. military spending and slow pace of economic recovery in the U.S. But earlier this year, the company boosted its outlook for 2014 and 2015 in response to the bipartisan federal budget agreement passed in December that provided an unexpected cushion to declining U.S. military spending this year and next.</br></br>The company closed its $1.42 billion acquisition of transportation communications specialist ARINC Inc. from investment firm Carlyle Group in late December. The move was designed to help the company reduce its reliance on government contracts and capitalize on the fast-growing information management market.
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HIGH TECH: MANAGING YOUR CAREER: THINK STRATEGICALLY
been immune to the effects of the recession and sluggish economic recovery. Despite reports of record years by a few local high tech recruiters and pockets of'strength in certain industries, some noticeable changes in the high tech hiring equation have occurred.</br></br>'There has definitely been a decrease in full time opportunities and an increase in the number of contractors being utilized by companies," notes William J. Joyce, a director for The Guild ‰Û÷ Corporation, a Virginia based recruiting firm. ‰ÛÏEmployers are also scrutinizing hires much more carefully. They're looking for better matches between candidates and job requirements.‰Û</br></br>Employed professionals are also confronting some new expectations. ‰ÛÏWith companies watching headcount today more than they ever have before, they're looking to justify every position," says Joyce. In that context, he suggests, they‰Ûªre looking far more closely at the skill profile and on-the-job accomplishments, of every employee.</br></br>In this atmosphere, hiring managers, corporate recruiters,, and search consultants alike agree that individuals must think; more strategically about their careers and take specific steps to maintain a competitive edge.</br></br>Maintaining state-of-the-art technical skills should be a top priority for all technical professionals whether they're in individual contributor or management roles.
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Job Market Picks Up, but Slowly
The job market is showing signs of life, though its slow recovery suggests unemployment will remain high for years to come.</br></br>Employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the biggest monthly gain in three years, with one-third of the growth coming from the government's hiring of 48,000 temporary workers for the 2010 Census. Despite those gains, the jobless rate held steady at 9.7% as new workers entered the job market and people who had previously quit the labor force returned.</br></br>The average length of unemployment rose last month to the highest point since record keeping began in 1948: more than 31 weeks. The number of workers out of work for six months or more rose sharply.</br></br>The latest report, which marks the third month since November in which payrolls increased, indicates the labor market is pulling out of a deep downturn that slashed more than eight million jobs since the recession hit in late 2007.</br></br>"It confirms that the economy has turned an important corner," says J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. chief economist Bruce Kasman. "It's been growing for a while, but I think what we're seeing is that this growth is now broadening out to include jobs."
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List Turns Mixed, Shade on Upside: Good Economic News Ford, GM Gain Large-Block Trades
NEW YORK, Feb. 7‰ÛÓThe stock market‰Ûªs latest rally attempt almost ran out of friends today, but the list managed to hold on to its first over-all gain in eight trading days. Volume declined for the fourth straight day. * *----------------------------1</br></br>The softness, which moved in during the second half of the four-hour session, was especially evident in blue chip stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average was the only major indicator to finish with a loss on the day. closing down 1.33 points at 859.92.</br></br>92.06 and the New York Stock Exchange index was ahead 0.08 point to 51.52. Volume ran ahead of Tuesday's pace while the market was rising in the morning, then fell back before the close. At the finish. 8.38 million shares had traded, down from 8.56 million in the previous session and, again, the lowest since 7.77 million on Columbus Day, Oct. 12.</br></br>Advances moved ahead of declines for the first time in eight sessions, but they had lo hold on to do it. At the market‰Ûªs best levels, the winners led the losers by more than 300 stocks, but at the close, there were 637 slocks up and 572 down, compared with 626 losers and 593 winners on Tuesday. New 1967-8 highs rose to 22 from 18 and new lows slipped to 25 from 28.</br></br>The market was treated to some good economic news, but analysts said the activity was still based strongly on technical factors, with attention riveted on the international scene.
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Fed to Shorten 'Lag' in Money Supply Report: Fed Shifts Accounting Method Of Short-Term M
The Federal Reserve Board, in an attempt to improve short-term control of the money supply, yesterday decided to eliminate most of the two-week lag between the time a financial institution receives a deposit and the time it must place a portion of it with the Fed as a reserve.</br></br>Some Reagan administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Donald T. Regan, have heen pressing the Fed to shift from the present lagged reserve accounting approach to so-called contemporaneous reserve accounting. The officials and most monetarist economists maintain the switch will greatly improve the Fed‰Ûªs ability to hit its money supply targets on a month-to-month or quar-ter-to-quarter basis.</br></br>Secretary Regan, who called yesterday‰Ûªs action ‰ÛÏwelcome news,‰Û has blamed the Fed‰Ûªs inability to control money growth month-bv-month for causing the current severe recession.</br></br>However, none of the five Fed governors who voted for the change ‰ÛÏin principle,‰Û including Chairman Paul A. Volcker, claimed it would provide more than a small marginal improvement in money control. Two governors, Lyle E. Gramley and Nancy H. Teeters, opposed the change on the grounds it would increase the volatility of interest rates and would cost financial institutions many millions of dollars to implement.</br></br>The purpose of the change is to make financial markets respond more quickly to Fed efforts to bring money growth back on track if it starts increasing either too rapidly or too slowly.
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They're the Little IPOs That Could
Though the IPO window appears closed to all but a select few companies, that hasn't stopped an optimistic breed of start-ups from pinning their dreams on going public.</br></br>Their initial public offerings aren't underwritten by investment banks, they price their stock for $1 a share or less, and they are hoping to sell enough to eventually list on the OTC Bulletin Board. Although they span a wide variety of industries, from mining to technology, they have a lot in common: no revenue and, in most cases, no product or operating business.</br></br>Some own land they seek to explore or develop. Others have product prototypes they want to manufacture and distribute. All are willing to give the public markets a shot at a time when only two mature companies have gone public in the past six months.</br></br>"You put it out there, and whatever comes back, comes back. But my ideal would be to have one investor with deep pockets" buy all the shares and become a long-term partner, said Trevor Blank, chief executive of Skyhigh Resources Inc., which registered in October to raise $25,000.</br></br>The company, which incorporated nearly two years ago, has no revenue but owns a 1,200-acre property in Canada that it wants to explore for gold, silver and platinum. Its cash balance, according to its prospectus: "nil."
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Candidate of Humble Origins Is Now Well-Off; Win or Lose, Dole Has a Million-Dollar Nest Egg From Years of Public Speaking Fees
Republican presidential nominee Robert J. Dole often tells the story of how his family survived the Depression by moving into the basement of their modest Russell, Kan., home and renting out the rest of the house to wealthy oilmen.</br></br>Win or lose in his bid for the White House, America can be assured that Dole won't be returning to that dreary childhood tableau. After a lifetime spent as a public servant, the former Senate majority leader has managed to squirrel away a million-dollar nest egg that would be the envy of most retirees.</br></br>Indeed, last year he and his wife, Elizabeth, reported total income of $583,869, putting them in the top 1 percent of Americans.</br></br>A review of Dole's personal finances shows that this man of humble origins, who inherited nothing, spent his entire life in government and never invested in the stock market, has built a comfortable net worth in a quintessentially Washington way: through a steady flow of speaking fees paid to him by special interest groups. Indeed, during his three decades in Congress, Dole took in some $1.7 million in honoraria, more than any other member of either the House or the Senate.</br></br>All of what Dole did over the years was legal, and because of restrictions on how much honoraria members could keep, he passed on more than half of what he made to charity. But at a time when the influence of money on politics is drawing increased public scrutiny, Dole's financial transformation makes clear why those in position to reform the process have been so reluctant to change it.
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Late Buying Gives Stocks Mild Fillip
The session was one of irregularity with prices swinging narrowly and most of the time with-i out concerted direction. Trading was quiet.</br></br>Security and commodity markets will be closed Monday in the United States in observance of Columbus Day and in Canada for thanksgiving day.</br></br>The Associated Press avei'age of 60 stocks advanced 10 cents at $103.90, which resulted in a net gain of 20 cents on the week.</br></br>The industrial section of the ! average held unchanged while the railroad and utility components each gained 20 cents.</br></br>Macy‰Ûªs was a feature of the merchandising section with a gain* of % at 2214,following an excellent- earnings report. It opened, up '%*ro.h.'a Wock of 1000 shares and 'climbed .steadily, ‰Û_ ColumbiaiBroadCasting System 'stock was down 1% at 46%. The I fall followed a public demonstration of CBS color television equipment.
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Bears' View: Bulls' Time Is Dwindling --- As Stocks Ride High, They Say Speculation Is Driving the Market
The stock market cooled a bit late last week from its record-breaking pace, but more and more investors seem to be piling onto the bull's bandwagon.</br></br>Euphoria aside, Wall Street clearly is banking on a U.S. economic recovery to justify current stock prices. The bulls argue that the Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates low enough to spin the economy out of its recession rut. Buying stocks now, the bulls calculate, will produce big rewards later when rebounding economic activity sends corporate profits soaring.</br></br>That optimistic outlook is so pervasive, says Ned Davis, a market researcher, that signs of rampaging bullishness abound: Cash levels at "aggressive growth" mutual funds have fallen sharply as portfolio managers scoop up stocks. A poll by the American Association of Individual Investors shows a 3-to-1 ratio of bullish to bearish sentiment, the highest level of public optimism since 1987. And odd-lot trading, the old-fashioned gauge of "little guys" interest in stocks, is at "the highest relative level of buying for something like the last 12 years," Mr. Davis says.</br></br>This is a hostile environment for bears, and one wonders if any can survive at altitudes above Dow 3000? We and Ned Davis will soon find out. He is one of them.</br></br>"There's definitely a speculative tone to the market now with the public getting involved," he says. "The big question is how long can it last? It may last awhile, but I think it's the last hurrah of the old bull market that dates back to 1982 or 1974."
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GM's IPO May Raise Record Amount
Author: Sharon Terlep,Randall Smith; Aaron Lucchetti</br></br>General Motors Co. said Wednesday that it will increase the size of its initial public offering by about 30% to 478 million shares, which could make it the largest global IPO in history.</br></br>The move, which came despite broad stock market losses Tuesday, is a response to stronger-than-expected demand for shares in the auto maker, which is generating solid profits after last year's U.S. government-orchestrated bankruptcy.</br></br>Earlier Tuesday, GM confirmed it would raise the expected price for shares sold in its IPO to a range of $32 to $33 from the previous $26 to $29. GM also plans to sell up to $4.6 billion of preferred stock, up from $3 billion previously planned. The IPO will be priced Wednesday after the U.S. stock markets close and the shares will start trading Thursday.</br></br>The value of the offering, including the mandatory convertible preferred shares, could reach $22.8 billion, eclipsing the $22.1 billion IPO by Agriculture Bank of China in July 2010, according to Thomson Reuters.
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Bank of Montreal Profit Climbs, Aided by M&I Deal
TORONTO--Bank of Montreal said first-quarter earnings rose 34%, helped by much lower loan-loss provisions and the recent acquisition of U.S. bank Marshall & Ilsley Corp.</br></br>The Toronto-based lender, Canada's fourth-largest bank by assets, said it earned C$1.11 billion ($1.11 billion), or C$1.63 a share, in its fiscal first quarter ended Jan. 31, up from C$825 million, or C$1.34, a year earlier.</br></br>Adjusted earnings, which exclude certain items such as costs related to its Marshall & Ilsley acquisition and a capital markets-related restructuring charge, rose 19% to C$972 million, or C$1.42 a share, beating the Thomson Reuters mean estimate of C$1.38.</br></br>The bank bolstered earnings by chopping provisions for bad debt despite growing concerns about high Canadian consumer debt levels and a hot housing market. Loan-loss provisions were less than half of last year's level, falling to C$141 million from C$323 million.</br></br>Still, BMO remains optimistic in its outlook for the North American economy, and while superlow interest rates and competition in its Canadian franchise are thinning profit margins, Canadian retail trends weren't quite as dire on a sequential basis as predicted, analysts said.
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States See New Need for Bonds
Some states may issue municipal bonds to shore up their underfunded unemployment-benefits programs, gaining flexibility but not necessarily a long-term answer to keeping the programs solvent.</br></br>Unemployment-insurance programs are jointly funded through federal and state employer-payroll taxes, but many states borrowed federal cash to replenish their funds as jobless claims rose during the recession. The economic-stimulus bill of 2009 temporarily waived interest payments on those federal loans.</br></br>But the waiver expired at the end of 2010, and the states that owe money--32 states and the Virgin Islands, according to analysis service Federal Funds Information for States--are weighing their options. Nevada, Idaho and South Carolina are among states looking at refinancing in the bond market before the first interest payment on the federal loans is due in September.</br></br>Some state officials are looking to refinance because they want to avoid paying interest through one of several unappealing options: charging a special assessment on businesses struggling to recover from the recession or finding the money in already-squeezed general funds.</br></br>The bonds are attractive because interest rates in the municipal-bond market are now lower than the 4.41% rate the federal government began charging in January on money borrowed for the trust funds.
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U.S. News: Businesses Spend More --- Orders for Equipment Rise in Encouraging Sign for Recovery
Companies boosted their orders for capital goods such as machinery and computers in February, in an encouraging sign that U.S. business is confident enough to support the economic recovery.</br></br>A key barometer of business investment -- orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft -- rose 1.1% last month, erasing part of a sharp drop in January, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.</br></br>Overall orders for durable goods -- long-lasting items ranging from semiconductor chips to semi-trailer trucks -- rose 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted $178.12 billion.</br></br>The uptick in capital-goods orders added to economists' hopes that rising business spending can help lead the recovery, compensating for cautious consumers and a moribund housing market.</br></br>So far, though, the pace of the business-sector expansion doesn't appear to be fast enough to drive a sharp economic rebound.
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Md., Va. Unemployment Falls, But Some Areas Still Hurting: Jobless ...
Despite continued falling unemployment in Maryland and Virginia, the jobless rates in their depressed areas are three times greater than that of the states as a whole.</br></br>Overall jobless rates dropped again in May for both states, but in some areas of Virginia unemployment was above 17 percent, and some parts of Maryland had unemployment of more than 9.5 percent.</br></br>Maryland‰Ûªs Department of Employment and Training reported yesterday that the state‰Ûªs jobless rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent.</br></br>Virginia‰Ûªs Employment Commission said last week that the Commonwealth's jobless rate fell 0.4 percentage point to 4.9 percent. Both states attributed the improved rates to seasonal gains and a healthy national economy. The District of Columbia, which had a 6.5 See JOBS, E3, Col. 1</br></br>In southwestern Virginia, news of the statewide drop in unemployment wasn‰Ûªt much cause for celebration. Falling oil prices have caused a 17.2 percent jobless rate in Dickenson County and a 16.8 percent unemployment rate in Buchanan County, both heavily dependent on coal mining. In Lancaster County, on the Northern Neck, seasonal improvements in the fishing industry have resulted in a 3-percentage-point reduction in unemployment, but it's still at 14.4 percent.
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Tuesday's markets: Stocks, dollar finish mixed as bonds ease
Stock prices finished mixed in a featureless session as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve and the future path of interest rates. Bond prices eased and the dollar was mixed.</br></br>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.71 to 3862.70, the average's sixth-consecutive decline. The Standard & Poor's 500stock index gained 0.05 to 465.86, the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index added 0.23 to 253.70 and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.69 to 763.20.</br></br>With the Fed's policy-making meeting less than one week away, interest-rate angst has infected the market. Traders reported sporadic earnings-related activity, but most trading moves were muted ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting set for Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. Most economists expect the FOMC to recommend a boost in short-term rates.</br></br>"People are clearly waiting on the Fed," said Alan Bond, president of Bond, Procope Capital Management. "I think we may tread water going into the Fed meeting, with a modestly upward bias."</br></br>Analysts added that worries about the proposed Mexican bailout package, as well as lingering uncertainty about how the Japanese earthquake might affect U.S. markets, contributed to yesterday's directionless trading.
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Stock Risks Poised to Rise in Changed Postattack World
Investing in stocks can be risky, sometimes very risky.</br></br>While that may seem obvious after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst weekly percentage loss in 61 years, of 14.25% (and its worst-ever weekly point loss, 1,369.70 points), it wasn't something that many investors probably spent enough time thinking about during the bull market run of the 1990s.</br></br>Now, with the Bush administration warning of a lengthy battle against terrorism, investors say that the risks associated with owning stocks -- as opposed to safer securities with more predictable returns, such as bonds -- are poised to rise. This is what analysts call a risk premium; as it gets higher, investors require a greater return from stocks compared to bonds.</br></br>For most analysts, it is not a question of whether stocks are riskier today than they have been for years. Rather, they are asking how much riskier? And for how long will this period of heightened risk continue?</br></br>"I am worried this crisis is going to be systemic in the sense that, at least for a while, it has changed the world," Barton Biggs, global equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report following the terrorist attack. "The risk premium for equities -- and maybe for all long-term assets -- is going to rise."
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Clinton Promises to Seek Forgiveness of Jordan's Debt
President Clinton promised King Hussein of Jordan yesterday to seek forgiveness of Jordan's $700 million debt to the United States, and to ask similar gestures from other creditors, a senior administration official said.</br></br>Clinton made the offer at a White House meeting in which the king said he needed tangible benefits to win public support for his efforts to make peace with Israel, the official said.</br></br>Hussein told reporters Tuesday that Jordan is prepared to move toward peace with Israel even if Syria is not. Known for his caution, he now appears to have made the decision to enter overtly into bilateral agreements with Israel that could culminate in a full peace treaty.</br></br>Clinton told reporters after meeting the king yesterday that he was "very encouraged by where we are now in the whole process."</br></br>In their meeting, however, the king said he needed more than oral support and "made a big deal about his debt problem," an administration official said. Debt service consumes about 30 percent of Jordan's budget.
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Mutual Funds Flat in Quarter; Lackluster Showing Contrasts With Gains Last Year
Trapped in a moody, directionless market, mutual funds generally went nowhere during the first three months of this year.</br></br>Their lackluster showing was in sharp contrast to the huge gains they scored last year, when stock funds soared 36 percent and bond funds rose 18 percent.</br></br>A big chunk of the 1991 gains came during an end-of-the-year rally, which ran out of steam when it appeared that interest rates had bottomed and the economy remained anemic. With their momentum gone, mutual funds had to settle for fractional gains and losses during the first quarter.</br></br>General stock funds - there are 882 in that category - lost an average of 0.16 percent during January, February and March, while 655 fixed-income funds gained only 0.07 percent.</br></br>Money market funds turned in a slightly better showing than the overall stock and bond averages. The money funds, caught in a low-interest-rate environment, gained an average of 0.94 percent during the quarter.
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Dell's Profit More Than Tripled To $60.3 Million in 4th Quarter --- Company Cites Strong Sales Of Pentium-Based PCs And New Notebook Line
Dell Computer Corp. rode strong sales of Pentium-based computers and its resurrected notebook computer line to higher-than-expected earnings of $60.3 million, or $1.36 a share, in the fourth quarter.</br></br>Sales topped $1 billion in the period ended Jan. 29 as the direct marketer of computers, rocked last year with several stumbles, showed results of its turnaround.</br></br>"It looks really good," said Michael Dell, chairman and chief executive officer.</br></br>Dell's fourth-quarter net income was more than triple the year earlier's $17.7 million, or 39 cents a share. Analysts had been expecting about 96 cents a share, according to a First Call consensus estimate.</br></br>The fourth-quarter results included an extra month of international sales, a onetime boost to earnings of 10 cents a share, as Dell unified its domestic and international fiscal years.
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How Important Is Budget Surplus?: The writer is Business and Financial Editor of The Washing
IF YOU LISTEN to Milton Friedman‰ÛÓ and more and more economists and official!' today arc doing so‰ÛÓhe will tell you that, fiscal policy (the level of tax and spending totals) is unimportant. The only relevancQ, of fiscal policy, soys Friedman, Is the In-: fluence lit brings to bear on the seven goyT, ernors of the Federal Reserve System, who set monetary policy, which he says is al^. important.</br></br>To put his point concretely: In early and mid-1968, all of the Keynesians still running, the Johnson economic team pul their faith in a 10 per cent surtax, generating a shift</br></br>Congress put through the tax, and there was a reversal of fiscal policy that produced a $3.1 billion surplus in fiscal 1969, a stunning change from a deficit of $25.2 billion in fiscal 1968. Taking the two years together, that was a net toughening of fiscal policy by $28.3 billion.</br></br>But we know now that it didn‰Ûªt, even with an extension of the surplus to a projected $5.9 billion in fiscal 1970.</br></br>Why? Because, Friedman will tell you, whatever anti-inflationary effect the surcharge had, it was more than counter-balanced when the Federal Reserve decided in mid-1968 that the money supply had to be expanded to prevent ‰ÛÏoverkill.‰Û It was one of those classic, egregious mistakes on which the Federal Reserve seems to own a patent.
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Read 'em and Weep; Cardholders See Rates Rise Based on Other Debts
Alan Cowan said he's never been late paying his credit card bills. So he was surprised this spring when he opened his First USA bill and found an "important notice" that said in small print that his 9.99 percent interest rate was going up to 19.49 percent.</br></br>No reason was given for the increase, but when Cowan called for an explanation he was told that in spite of his spotless record at First USA, he was delinquent and had high balances with other creditors. Cowan disputed the delinquencies and said that high balances were declining as he paid them off. When First USA declined to change his rate back to 9.99 percent, he closed his account.</br></br>The California computer consultant is one of a growing number of credit card customers who have discovered a not-so-fine reality in the fine print of most credit card issuers. It doesn't matter if consumers are current on one credit card; if they fall behind -- or become too indebted -- to another company, the first credit card firm may, and often does, raise its rate.</br></br>"If we see you're becoming delinquent with other creditors, there's a chance you may become delinquent with us," Citibank spokeswoman Maria Mendler said.</br></br>First USA spokesman David Webster said: "We think it's a prudent lending practice. You must provide your product based on the risk that exists, and if that risk changes, then a lender needs to make changes to accommodate that."
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Long-Term Aid Urged For Small Business
Chairman William McChesney Martin Jr. of the Federal Reserve Board called on the Government yesterday to help set up new private lending facilities to meet the long-term credit needs of small business.</br></br>He said special tax treat-* ment also might be needed to step up the flow of capital to small business.</br></br>Martin said his proposed lending program would be a "new frontier‰Û for Federal aid. But he added that financing I needs of some small businesses! with a promising growth po-j tential were not being met. !</br></br>He told a Senate banking| subcommittee there was room for a Government program to help fill the gap. j</br></br>Martin generally approved1 a proposed bill which would permit the Government to contribute by loans or capital stock purchase up to $250 million to newly created small business investment companies. A Small Business Investment Administration would administer the program.
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Interest Rates Cause Concern
NEW YORK, .Ian. 22 W.‰ÛÓThe stock market broke badly this week in its first session, and then slowly and painfully climbed back up to its old position.</br></br>Not. until the final day of the week did the market exhibit something of its oldtime vigor in pushing ahead.</br></br>The Associated Press average of 60 stocks ended the week at $152.30. That is precisely where it closed one week ago 'today.</br></br>Those buying and selling stocks this week had to contend with an unusually diverse display of conflicting influences.</br></br>Bankers believe the Federal Reserve thinks the new firmness simply reflects a better tempo of business, a working of supply and demand with demand putting a better floor under money rates.
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List Continues Broad Decline: Aluminum Shares Up Merger Figures Drop
NEW YORK, Jan. 13‰ÛÓThe stock market continued its decline today with all the major indices showing a loss.</br></br>Jones Industrial ‰Û÷Average dropped 2.42 to 92B|T^e^hiIå¤w^>t^eWaI^dtk Stock Exchange Index ffifipW^s^r^s^SoUdicating ‰Û¢ an easing on a possible additional tightening of credit by the Federal Re-serve, which meets Tuesday. After last month‰Ûªs meeting,</br></br>and banks passed the cost on' by raising the interest rate to j j their corporate borrowers.!' Since then consumer loanii rates have been increased by ; ‰ÛÏThere‰Ûªs a lot of bearishness : around,‰Ûª‰Ûª said one analyst, jj ‰ÛÏPeople think the Fed really means to put a damper on the j economy and cool inflation.‰Û !;</br></br>One bright spot in an otherwise dull day of trading was aluminum. Kaiser raised the price for the metal to its highest point in a decade and gains from the reaction were scored by Alcan and Alcoa, both up 1; Kaiser, up 1% and 1 Reynolds, up 1-1/8. Declines led advances on The New York Stock Exchange and at the close, 1008 issues had fallen and 371 gained. There were 1581 issues traded, and volume was 11.16 million shares compared with 12.68 traded Friday. New lows 'j were reached by 40 stocks while six had new highs. |</br></br>American Electric Power ' was the most active stock, boosted to the top on a block of 246,400 shares traded before noon at 36^. The stock closed up % at 36-3/8.
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Gold Recovers On Weak Dollar
Author: Tatyana Shumsky</br></br>NEW YORK--Gold prices settled modestly higher as a weaker dollar ameliorated a midmorning dip on record-high U.S. crude-oil inventories.</br></br>The contract for April delivery settled $7.60, or 0.5%, higher at $1,423.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.</br></br>The most actively traded contract, for June delivery, ended up $7.40, or 0.5%, at $1,424.90 per troy ounce.</br></br>Gold prices started the day slightly higher as the market sought direction. At mid-morning, the U.S. Department of Energy said crude-oil inventories hit a record 41.9 million barrels last week, sending oil prices lower. Gold prices fell about $10 over 45 minutes.
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E8 Tuesday, June 30,1987
Copies of the Prospectus may be obtained in any jurisdiction onjyfrom such of the undersigned as may lawfully offer the securities in such jurisdiction.</br></br>Daiwa Europe Limited Kleinwort Benson Limited Morgan Grenfell 8& Co. Limited J. Henry Schroder Wagg 8& Co. Limited Vereins- und Westbank</br></br>Banque Paribas Capital Markets Limited IMI Capital Markets (UK) Ltd. Mitsubishi Trust International Limited ‰Û¢ The above rate will be paid on a 1-Year C.O. if you have an existing, or open a new, checking account with Dominion Federal with at least a $500 balance.</br></br>‰Û¢ All types of checking accounts will qualify, however, ff you are opening a new account, the minimum opening deposit requirements of the checking account that you choose must be met.</br></br>Over 40:LocatiQns.in DC',,MD & iVA ..Experts! on Office Suite : facilities.'- Furnished or. Unf.ur-! nished :: and many . Arnenities‰Ûª; . , Just one call and'we‰Ûªll .locate the', . perfect office or-suite for you !: pQ
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Tax Pledge Is a Target As Deficits, Debt Grow; Obama Advisers Will Not Rule Out Broad-Based Hike
During last year's campaign, President Obama vowed to enact a bold agenda without raising taxes for the middle class, a pledge budget experts viewed with skepticism. Since then, a severe recession, massive deficits and a national debt that is swelling toward a 50-year high have only made his promise harder to keep.</br></br>The Obama administration has insisted that the pledge will stand. But the president's top economic advisers have refused to rule out broad-based tax increases to close the yawning gap between federal revenue and government spending and are warning of tough choices ahead.</br></br>Republicans are already on the attack, accusing Obama of plotting to break his no-tax vow, the same political transgression that cost Democrats control of Congress under former president Bill Clinton and may have cost president George H.W. Bush his job. Democrats say Obama is highly unlikely to break the pledge before next year's congressional election and observe that it would be safer to wait until his second term if a tax increase becomes unavoidable.</br></br>Some lawmakers are focused instead on setting up an independent commission to solve the deficit problem. Senate Budget Committee chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) plans to hold hearings on the topic when Congress returns to Washington this fall.</br></br>Obama, meanwhile, has vowed to pay for any new initiatives and to draft an overhaul of the health-care system that eventually would save the government money, driving deficits down. But effective health reforms would take decades to produce savings. In the meantime, White House budget director Peter R. Orszag acknowledged, "there are additional steps that will be necessary." "The administration is very concerned about these [future] deficits, and getting those deficits under control is a top priority of the administration," Orszag told reporters this week as he rolled out a new economic forecast that added $2 trillion to deficit projections from 2010 to 2019.
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ImClone's Delay May Boost Rivals In Cancer Battle
In a high-stakes race to bring a new type of cancer drug to market, two companies have gained important ground after the leading company, ImClone Systems Inc., failed to clear regulatory hurdles.</br></br>To get to the market quickly, ImClone tried a high-risk strategy to seek regulatory approval with one small, unusually designed clinical trial. But the Food and Drug Administration in December refused to review its application. The resulting mess -- a rash of shareholder lawsuits, embarrassing publicity, and investigations by Congress and regulators -- has been a nightmare for ImClone and its officers and directors.</br></br>But ImClone's stumble may have created an unexpected opportunity for AstraZeneca PLC and OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. in the multibillion-dollar market for this new class of cancer drugs. AstraZeneca may now lead the pack: On the very day ImClone announced the FDA's decision, Dec. 28, AstraZeneca said it had completed its application with the agency for its drug.</br></br>"Whoever is on the market first will dominate for a long period of time," says oncologist Eric Rowinsky, director of clinical research at the Institute for Drug Development in San Antonio, where he has run clinical trials on five rival drugs to ImClone's drug, Erbitux.</br></br>Eagerly anticipated by oncologists and patients, ImClone's treatment was expected to be the first of a new class of drugs that tries to stop cancer from spreading by interfering with the chemical signals -- most notably the activation of substances on the outside of cells called epidermal growth factor receptors -- that seem to tell cells to proliferate. Most solid-tumor cancers -- colorectal, lung, pancreatic, and head-and-neck -- appear to grow using the chemical signaling the medicines aim to block. Although each of the new drugs might be approved initially for different types of tumors, they are expected to compete because oncologists routinely use drugs on many types of cancers besides the approved ones.
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Foreign Policy Debate Lifts Gore, Poll Finds
Sen. Albert Gore Jr. (D-Tenn.) was the best performer at a Democratic foreign policy debate last week-at least by the lights of a small but potentially significant slice of Southern swing voters, according to a survey released yesterday by the Democratic Leadership Council.</br></br>Gore, who set himself apart in the DLC-sponsored encounter on Oct. 5 with his enthusiastic support for U.S. shows of military force in Grenada and the Persian Gulf, had entered the debate in third place among the voters sampled, with 12 percent of the support. After the debate, he was in first place with 38 percent support.</br></br>The candidate with whom he sparred most frequently that evening, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.), was the other big gainer in the survey. He entered the debate supported by just 8 percent of the viewing sample, in fifth place, and emerged with 19 percent of the support, in second place.</br></br>Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis' support declined from 14 to 11 percent, that of Sen. Paul Simon (D-Ill.) remained flat at 11 percent, Jesse L. Jackson's dropped from 23 percent to 9 percent, and former Arizona governor Bruce Babbitt's grew from 0 to 3 percent.</br></br>Those surveyed by the DLC, an organization of moderate Democrats, were residents of Charlotte, N.C.; Jacksonville, Fla., and Atlanta, who voted for President Reagan in 1980 or 1984, and voted for a Democratic Senate candidate in 1986.
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Gold, Platinum Close Higher
NEW YORK--Gold futures edged higher Monday while platinum again outpaced gold's gains as precious metals drew strength from a weaker dollar in a quiet trading day.</br></br>The most active gold contract, for April delivery, rose $11.50, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,667.30 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.</br></br>A weaker dollar, which slipped versus the euro in late morning trade, fanned demand for dollar-denominated gold. Gold is priced in dollars and tends to attract more foreign buyers when the greenback falters, as the metal appears less expensive to these buyers in their home currency terms.</br></br>Gold prices also caught a boost as some investors, who had made bets on lower prices, re-entered the market as buyers in order to cover those previous sell orders, known as shorts.</br></br>"There were a lot of 'short-term shorts'--latecomers to the short party. It looked like the market might break down technically and didn't, and that's bringing out some modest demand," said Bill O'Neill, a principal with Logic Advisors.
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Ukraine Backtracks on Reform, Boosts Subsidies to State-Run Firms
KIEV, Ukraine, Feb. 22‰ÛÓThe Ukrainian government acknowledged today that it has sharply stepped up financial support to unprofitable state-run farms and factories, a move that could trigger higher inflation and jeopardize Western loans urgently needed to shore up the country‰Ûªs crumbling economy.</br></br>Economics Minister Roman Shpek tord reporters here today that 24 trillion Ukrainian karbovanets (about $666 million) had been allotted as credits to state agriculture and industry in the first two months of this year. Although relatively small by U.S. standards, the amount is equivalent to half of all the money circulating in Ukraine, according to figures given by Shpek and supported by Western analysts here.</br></br>Ukraine has been negotiating with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for $1.5 billion in loans since last month, when President Leonid Kravchuk signed a landmark accord in which he agreed to begin dismantling Ukraine's inherited Soviet nuclear weapons in return for U.S. and Russian security guarantees and Western financial aid.</br></br>As part of the negotiations, however, the Kiev government was asked to take measures to hold down inflation‰ÛÓnow running at about 60 percent a month‰ÛÓand to speed its transition from a Soviet-style command economy to a free-market system. "One of the things they were specifically told not to do was to give out credits" to failing government enterprises, said one Western diplomat. ‰ÛÏYet they have done it." fully to persuade the Kiev leadership to press forward with meaningful economic reform, and many fear that a failure to do so could bring about uncontrollable social and political instability here. Indeed, a recent U.S. intelligence assessment noted in grim terms that continued economic decline in Ukraine, coupled with competing regional interests, could lead to civil strife and the fragmentation of Ukraine into two or three separate states.</br></br>One senior Western economist said that the Kiev government announcement, which coincides with a visit here by an IMF-World Bank negotiating team, would "at the very least delay" conclusion of the loan deal and ‰ÛÏinstill doubts about Ukraine‰Ûªs ability to implement reform.‰Û
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IMF Tells Pakistan to Trim Deficit
Author: Zahid Hussain</br></br>ISLAMABAD, Pakistan--The International Monetary Fund issued a stern warning to Pakistan to take measures to cut its spiraling budget deficit, according to a senior Pakistani government official.</br></br>In an official letter to the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, the IMF warned that the state of the nation's economy is far worse than previously realized and urged immediate fiscal belt-tightening measures, said the official, who has seen the missive.</br></br>A spokesman for the IMF declined to comment on the letter.</br></br>The IMF withheld $3.5 billion in 2010 from its total $11.3 billion loan package for Pakistan in a bid to pressure the country to take action.
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Moving the Market -- Tracking the Numbers / Outside Audit: SEC Is Slow to Approve Charter's Odd Stock Sale; Cable Operator Pays Penalty Under Terms of Note Deal Premised on Agency Nod
Wait, I thought you told the SEC.</br></br>Charter Communications Inc., the cable operator controlled by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, is hitting bumps with an unusual issue of new stock tied to its sale last November of $862.5 million in convertible notes. Charter isn't shouldering its burden alone. The investors who bought those notes are right there with it.</br></br>Selling the convertibles was a tall order to start with. The St. Louis company has more than $19 billion in debt, and bearish short sellers account for more than a third of Charter's publicly available stock. Ordinarily, hedge funds -- major buyers of convertibles -- would take a pass. These investors typically borrow a company's stock and short it as a hedge against owning the convertibles -- if the stock rises the convertibles become more valuable; should the stock fall, the short position pays off. But the huge short position in Charter stock makes it prohibitively expensive to borrow more of the stock to sell it short.</br></br>So Citigroup Global Markets Ltd., the underwriter of the convertibles, came up with a twist. The bank lined up investors for the notes and got Charter to promise to issue 150 million shares of new stock that would be lent to Citigroup. Citigroup would turn around and lend the stock to the note buyers, enabling them to replace the expensive stock they borrowed to short Charter and thus comfortably lock in their hedge against the 5.875% notes, which mature in November 2009 and can be converted into Charter shares should the stock hit $2.42. (Charter shares traded at $1.23, up one cent, in 4 p.m. Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading yesterday.)</br></br>Citigroup had a road map for doing this. Power giant Calpine Corp., another heavily indebted, heavily shorted company, last year sold $736 million in convertible notes tied to an issue of 89 million new shares. Calpine lent the shares to Deutsche Bank Securities, a banker on the deal, which lent them to hedge funds that bought the convertibles. The new stock issue wasn't dilutive because, under the terms of the deal, the shares will be returned to the company in 10 years when the convertibles reach maturity.
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Dollar Declines In Face of Lower Interest Rates
The U.S. dollar declined against major foreign currencies yesterday because of lower U.S. interest rates, which make dollar-denominated investments less attractive, and a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% in U.S. July retail sales.</br></br>The foreign-exchange market had expected July retail sales to advance by about 0.3%, said Gil Leiendecker Jr., a vice president and manager of the foreign-exchange department of Salomon Brothers Inc., New York. The drop indicated the U.S. economy is slowing faster than expected.</br></br>Gold rose $4.20 an ounce in response to the decline of the dollar and U.S. interest rates, which make gold purchases easier to finance.</br></br>Jordan Black, an assistant treasurer of Chase Manhattan Bank, New York, said the feeling that U.S. interest rates might continue to ease also hurt the dollar. "But people are hesitant to sell too many dollars," he added, "in the belief that the Federal Reserve may have to tighten credit conditions in the period just after the U.S. election." Any tightening could lead to higher U.S. interest rates.</br></br>Peter Rogers, an assistant vice president and assistant chief foreign-exchange dealer of Manufacturers Hanover Trust Co., New York, said that "if we don't see a strong rise in the U.S. industrial production number (to be released today), there could be a substantial correction in the dollar." The market curently expects U.S. July industrial production to climb by about 0.7%. "My feeling," he said, "is that short-term sentiment about the strength of the dollar has changed."
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Faded Allure: How Municipal Bonds Went From Cash Cow To a White Elephant --- Wall Street Sours on Them And Investors Grow Wary Following Tax Changes --- Federal Inquiries Don't Help
Seymour Roth tries to be nice, even when the brokers call his Fayetteville, N.Y., home at dinner time.</br></br>Politely and patiently, he tells one from a New York securities firm, not for the first time, "No, I do not want to buy any tax-free bonds. Thank you very much."</br></br>At first glance, Mr. Roth would seem to be a municipal-bond salesman's ideal prospect. A resident of a high-tax state who has prospered financially running Roth Steel Corp., a scrap-iron processor, he likes the tax-exempt income derived from helping to finance public-works projects.</br></br>The brokers are wasting their time, however. Concerned about the effects of higher interest rates and the possible lack of liquidity of the market, Mr. Roth in October sold almost half his six-figure holdings in municipals in favor of investing in tax-exempt money-market funds. "Don't get me wrong -- I love to clip those bond coupons, and I love getting those checks from New York state," he says, "but the market's in turmoil."</br></br>There are many people like Mr. Roth these days. Even among investors flush with cash diverted from the jittery stock market, "it's a tough time persuading anyone to go into munis," says Peter Wagner, an Oppenheimer & Co. broker.
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U.S. Eyes Three Nations For Unfair-Trading List;Japan, India and Brazil May Be Cited
President Bush's top economic advisers are homing in on three countries, including Japan, to be named as "unfair" traders, but they are likely to omit South Korea and the European Community from the list of nations facing possible sanctions, administration sources said yesterday.</br></br>But the sources emphasized that the Cabinet-level Economic Policy Council still is sharply divided over how to handle the trade law's requirement that the nations be singled out. A list of options is still being prepared for presentation to Bush next week.</br></br>U.S. Trade Representative Carla Hills is expected to announce by next Thursday the countries and trade practices the administration considers unfair under the so-called "Super 301" provision of the law.</br></br>Administration sources said South Korea so far escaped being named during the deliberations because of a series of last-minute market liberalizing moves and a feeling that the fragile democracy there would be harmed if Seoul was singled out.</br></br>"If Korea's concessions are as good as advertised, they are a strong argument for the architecture of the Super 301 and for an assertive U.S. trade policy," said William T. Archey, international vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
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Minimum Wage: Who Pays?
President Clinton and his allies in Congress are calling for another increase in the minimum wage. But they should consider the experience of small-business owners like me, who struggled through the last increase. I own and manage a small cafe. I have had as many as 16 employees; I now have nine. Most of them are teenagers; the rest, working mothers.</br></br>Before the last increase I wrote letters to the president and my congressmen. I explained that the mandated wage increase was only the tip of the iceberg. To maintain the wage increment for senior employees, I would have to raise their wages above the new minimum. My monthly payroll would increase by $570 -- and that didn't include the payroll taxes for Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance and workman's compensation. For my efforts I received nicely worded form letters about the benefits of the wage increase.</br></br>When the increase passed, I had to reduce staffing hours. Result: I am working harder to earn my money. I already worked six days a week, every week. The staffing cutbacks increased my workload by 15 hours a week. I also cut back on outside services, so I am now mopping my own floors two weeks each month and doing all my own accounting, the weekly laundry and as many of the repairs as I can.</br></br>When Mr. Clinton signed the wage increase into law, he had by his side a minimum-wage worker who stated that now she did not have to choose between paying her electric bill or her gas bill. The same evening, our local news interviewed a woman who said she would now be able to buy her daughter a compact disk player for graduation. I do not begrudge either of these women their good fortune. But business owners work hard too, and we also have to make tough choices. I suffer from several chronic illnesses, and the wage increase has forced me to cut back on medical care.</br></br>Money for minimum wage increases has to come from somewhere. Mr. Clinton's proposed increase would raise my annual payroll by $7,200, forcing me to close my doors. To the politicians I say this: You have the power to destroy the American Dream for thousands of small-business owners. If you pass another increase in the minimum wage, you can tell the teenagers and working mothers I employ why they no longer have jobs. Then try asking for their votes.
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THE WASHINGTON POST Sunday, November 12,1978
WHEN ROBERT and Juanita Silvia had their sixth child in February 1973, the ‰ÛÏblessed event‰Û was decidedly a mixed blessing. In fact, it was a bit of a jolt, because 16 months earlier Robert had a vasectomy that he thought made him sterile.</br></br>The daughter born that day is in kindergarten and, the parents say. is a well-loved, ‰ÛÏwanted‰Û child. Nevertheless, the North Attleboro, Mass., couple went to court recently ‰ÛÓ as others in similar circumstances have done ‰ÛÓ and sued Dr. Robert N. Hayward of Foxboro who had performed the vasectomy.</br></br>Although their case is far from unique, such cases are almost always controversial. And in this case, like many others, the hottest issue is not the nature of the surgery itself nor how it was done, but the kind of damages the suit seeks.</br></br>The Silvias‰Ûª suit not only asked the doctor to pay the medical costs of the unwanted pregnancy and delivery; it did not stop with compensation for the pain and inconvenience the pregnancy entailed.</br></br>Their claim plunged well beyond to try to force the doctor to pay the estimated cost of raising the girl until she reaches 18, the age at which a parent‰Ûªs legal obligations to the child cease.
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There's No Escaping Hauser's Law
Even amoebas learn by trial and error, but some economists and politicians do not. The Obama administration's budget projections claim that raising taxes on the top 2% of taxpayers, those individuals earning more than $200,000 and couples earning $250,000 or more, will increase revenues to the U.S. Treasury. The empirical evidence suggests otherwise. None of the personal income tax or capital gains tax increases enacted in the post-World War II period has raised the projected tax revenues.</br></br>Over the past six decades, tax revenues as a percentage of GDP have averaged just under 19% regardless of the top marginal personal income tax rate. The top marginal rate has been as high as 92% (1952-53) and as low as 28% (1988-90). This observation was first reported in an op-ed I wrote for this newspaper in March 1993. A wit later dubbed this "Hauser's Law."</br></br>Over this period there have been more than 30 major changes in the tax code including personal income tax rates, corporate tax rates, capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, investment tax credits, depreciation schedules, Social Security taxes, and the number of tax brackets among others. Yet during this period, federal government tax collections as a share of GDP have moved within a narrow band of just under 19% of GDP.</br></br>Why? Higher taxes discourage the "animal spirits" of entrepreneurship. When tax rates are raised, taxpayers are encouraged to shift, hide and underreport income. Taxpayers divert their effort from pro-growth productive investments to seeking tax shelters, tax havens and tax exempt investments. This behavior tends to dampen economic growth and job creation. Lower taxes increase the incentives to work, produce, save and invest, thereby encouraging capital formation and jobs. Taxpayers have less incentive to shelter and shift income.</br></br>On average, GDP has grown at a faster pace in the several quarters after taxes are lowered than the several quarters before the tax reductions. In the six quarters prior to the May 2003 Bush tax cuts, GDP grew at an average annual quarterly rate of 1.8%. In the six quarters following the tax cuts, GDP grew at an average annual quarterly rate of 3.8%. Yet taxes as a share of GDP have remained within a relatively narrow range as a percent of GDP in the entire post-World War II period.
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Economic Conditions Are Improving Slightly and Unevenly, Fed Surveys Say
WASHINGTON -- Economic conditions are improving in most of the nation, but the rate of gain continues to be relatively small and uneven, according to new surveys by the 12 Federal Reserve district banks.</br></br>Overall, 10 of the districts, in their report for November, noted slight to moderate gains in some or all sectors of the economy. Retailers in particular said activity had picked up in October and early November, and many were optimistic about the current holiday season. The Chicago district went so far as to call it "the best performance in eight years."</br></br>Badly battered consumer confidence also seemed to be on the mend in many areas, a trend that respondents in Boston and Chicago linked to the end of the presidential election campaign. In New York, however, retailers attributed the somewhat brighter picture to promotional efforts rather than to any meaningful revival in the economy.</br></br>Manufacturers in about half of the Fed districts said things are looking up, albeit generally quite modestly. Ongoing cutbacks in the defense industry remain a drag on the recovery in some regions. And while indicators from Dallas are strong, and Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Chicago reported small gains, many industrial concerns in the New York district and California continue to experience weak demand.</br></br>Construction and real estate remain "a tale of two markets," the report said, with improvements in the residential sector and continued stagnation on the commercial side. In Southern California, for example, some commercial rents have fallen 25% to 40%, and forecasts for next year show rents tumbling an additional 10% or more; the number of foreclosures is expected to rise.
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The Federal Reserve: From Central Bank to Central Planner
Momentous changes are under way in what central banks are and what they do. We are used to thinking that central banks' main task is to guide the economy by setting interest rates. Central banks' main tools used to be "open-market" operations, i.e. purchasing short-term Treasury debt, and short-term lending to banks.</br></br>Since the 2008 financial crisis, however, the Federal Reserve has intervened in a wide variety of markets, including commercial paper, mortgages and long-term Treasury debt. At the height of the crisis, the Fed lent directly to teetering nonbank institutions, such as insurance giant AIG, and participated in several shotgun marriages, most notably between Bank of America and Merrill Lynch.</br></br>These "nontraditional" interventions are not going away anytime soon. Many Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, see "credit constraints" and "segmented markets" throughout the economy, which the Fed's standard tools don't address. Moreover, interest rates near zero have rendered those tools nearly powerless, so the Fed will naturally search for bigger guns. In his speech Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Mr. Bernanke made it clear that "we should not rule out the further use of such [nontraditional] policies if economic conditions warrant."</br></br>But the Fed has crossed a bright line. Open-market operations do not have direct fiscal consequences, or directly allocate credit. That was the price of the Fed's independence, allowing it to do one thing -- conduct monetary policy -- without short-term political pressure. But an agency that allocates credit to specific markets and institutions, or buys assets that expose taxpayers to risks, cannot stay independent of elected, and accountable, officials.</br></br>In addition, the Fed is now a gargantuan financial regulator. Its inspectors examine too-big-to-fail banks, come up with creative "stress tests" for them to pass, and haggle over thousands of pages of regulation. When we think of the Fed 10 years from now, on current trends, we're likely to think of it as financial czar first, with monetary policy the boring backwater.
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PNC Bank sold fixed-rate securities last month at loss totaling $79 million
PITTSBURGH -- PNC Bank Corp., moving to reduce its vulnerability to rising interest rates, said it sold $1.8 billion in securities last month as part of a plan to shrink its investment portfolio by $5.9 billion by the end of 1995.</br></br>The bank-holding company said it will incur a $79 million loss for the fourth quarter from the recent sale of fixed-rate securities. It also said it won't replace a further $4.1 billion in securities that mature this year, reducing its total portfolio to about $17 billion by the end of 1995 from $22.9 billion at the end of the 1994 third quarter. The move will reduce PNC's total assets by 9.4%, to about $58 billion.</br></br>PNC indicated last fall that it would restructure its investment portfolio after steep interest-rate increases produced heavy securities losses. At the time, PNC said it expected those losses would cut 1994 fourth-quarter earnings by 7% and 1995 earnings by about 15%.</br></br>PNC isn't alone in selling securities because of rising interest rates. "I assume virtually everybody is," said Dennis Shea, an analyst at Morgan Stanley & Co. "Most banks are, I would believe, net sellers of securities right now. They're trying to reduce their liability-sensitive positions."</br></br>To further reduce vulnerability, PNC recently bought interest-rate swaps with fixed payments and interest-rate caps. The new swaps and caps will cost PNC about $70 million in 1995 if rates stay the same, said Thomas H. O'Brien, chairman, chief executive and president. If rates keep rising, the cost of the swaps and caps will drop.
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New-home sales surge to 10-year high as personal income and spending rise
WASHINGTON -- The economy keeps percolating along at a steady clip, a series of new statistics released yesterday suggest.</br></br>New-home sales in August jumped 4.7% from July's strong level and hit the highest annual rate in more than a decade, the Commerce Department said. Separately, the agency reported that personal spending and personal income each rose a healthy 0.6% in August, following minuscule increases in July.</br></br>Most economists still expect the economy's growth rate for the third quarter, which will be announced later this month, was slower than the torrid 4.7% pace in the second quarter. But a raft of buoyant economic reports, including yesterday's figures, is encouraging some analysts to temper their predictions of a downturn.</br></br>"The momentum is quite healthy," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Norwest Corp. in Minneapolis. "People were probably underestimating the strength of the third quarter."</br></br>A clearer picture of the economy's vitality will emerge today, with the announcement of two closely watched monthly indexes. The National Association of Purchasing Management will release its survey of the manufacturing sector, and the Conference Board will publish its index of leading economic indicators.
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UPS Profit Jumps On Higher Overseas Shipping Volumes
United Parcel Services Inc.'s first-quarter profit jumped 33% as the shipping company reported higher package volume, led by a significant increase abroad.</br></br>UPS, a bellwether of the broader economy, disclosed the better-than-expected preliminary results two weeks ago, and was one of the first to signify a rebound in the freight-transport sector was underway.</br></br>Tuesday, UPS executives said the broad economic recovery appears poised to gain steam, although they described the upturn as more "measured" than dramatic to this point.</br></br>Chief Executive Scott Davis said demand picked up throughout the first quarter, a trend that has continued so far in the second quarter.</br></br>"Economies around the world are showing signs of recovery," Davis said.
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Economy Points Down, Takes Market With It
With summer around the bend, investors are fretting about the return of something much more unpleasant: the bear market.</br></br>Suddenly, there are reasons for worry that stocks could be entering a difficulty period, including suddenly poor economic data, troubling signs from housing and a rush of companies selling shares.</br></br>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.3% last week, its fifth down week in a row. The Dow is now down 5.2% from its post-crash high, set in May. Other stock indexes also are suffering. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.3% and is now down 46% from its high. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was also off 2.3% for the week.</br></br>Highlighting the ugly week: The Dow tumbled nearly 280 points on Wednesday, its worst single day since August 2010, on fears that the U.S. economy is in the midst of a new slide -- one that may be hard to halt because the government and Federal Reserve already have done so much to try to juice the economy.</br></br>Despite the gloom and doom, it's important to remember the market is still sitting on respectable gains in 2011. So far this year, the Dow is up 5%, the Nasdaq has gained 3%, while the S&P 500 is up 3.4%.
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