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Bouyant Real Estate Market Forecast for Rest of Year: Realty Dialogues With Bernard C. Meltzer | market for |the year will be buoyant. It will be characterized by declining mortgage interest rates, high level of activity, and increasing prices.</br></br>Q: Your forecast early this year correctly predicted high interest rates, money shortages, a low volume of construction, and a low level of market activity. You will have to admit that, in the pa9t two months, things have turned around. May T respectfully request your forecast for the balance of the year and for early 1971?</br></br>A: My crystal ball is clear this' time. Things will be looking up for brokers, buyers, builders, and for almost everybody in real estate.</br></br>I expect the FHA and VA mortgage interest rates to decline by one-half of a percent within weeks. FHA discounts will ease considerably for suburban houses and properties in good neighborhoods. Discounts on inner-city properties will only decline a small amount. There</br></br>By the end of the year, conventional mortgage Interest rates will be cut back by about a quarter of I per cent. However, the supply of conventional money for the balance of the year and for early 1971 will not be sufficient to meet all needs. | no | 0 |
Shadow of Noose Speeds Up Banking Union; The deal euro-zone leaders are expected to agree upon is far more substantial than had seemed possible. | Nothing concentrates a man's mind quite like the prospect of being hanged in the morning, observed Samuel Johnson, the 18th century English writer. In a similar vein, two factors helped concentrate the minds of European governments in recent weeks as they thrashed out important details of the euro zone's proposed banking union.</br></br>The first was the European Parliament elections scheduled for May next year. These are expected to result in large gains for euro-skeptic and extremist parties, which could make it much harder to agree on complex legislation involving a substantial pooling of sovereignty.</br></br>The second is growing anxiety in the markets and among some policy makers that the euro zone is sliding into deflation. With interest rates already close to zero and no easy way to further loosen monetary policy, a credible banking union is the euro zone's best chance to reduce financial fragmentation and reduce borrowing costs in the periphery.</br></br>The result is that euro-zone leaders are expected this week to agree upon a far more substantial banking union deal than had recently seemed possible. This deal will include a legally binding set of arrangements for the winding up of failed banks--the so-called Single Resolution Mechanism--to be headed by a Single Resolution Board with access to a Single Resolution Fund to help pay for the cost of clearing up bank failures.</br></br>The speed with which the deal has fallen into place has surprised officials. Germany had previously ruled out any common euro-zone fund to help pay for winding up failed banks, insisting instead on a network of national funds. | no | 0 |
Longer-Dated Treasury Issues May Bear Brunt of a Rate Cut | So-called safe-harbor flows have meant strong currents for the U.S. Treasurys market throughout the credit-market shakeout.</br></br>Now it looks like their absence could leave investors flailing. The Federal Reserve's efforts to keep cash moving in the financial system have stopped short of the sort of interest-rate cut the market craves, but they have weighed on Treasurys nevertheless. The question is how much government bonds will suffer from any turnaround in the credit and stock markets.</br></br>Friday, the Fed cut the borrowing rate on its discount window to 5.75% and extended the term from overnight to 30 days, with the option to renew. The central bank left the key federal-funds rate untouched at 5.25%.</br></br>It was enough to prompt a significant drop in prices of long-dated Treasurys. The benchmark 10-year note fell 19/32 point, lifting its yield to 4.673%, as debt prices and yields move inversely. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.8%.</br></br>The feeling in the market now is that it isn't so much a question of whether the Fed will cut the fed-funds rate, but when it will do so. According to Credit Suisse, it is a matter of strategy alone; an early cut risks overstepping the mark and forcing an adjustment down the line, with all the attendant volatility and potential damage to the bank's credibility. If credit markets stabilize, the Fed can bide its time and take a more measured approach. | yes | 1 |
Strong Economic-Data Reports for November Renew Fears of Further Interest-Rate Increases | NEW YORK -- Bonds suffered their worst one-day plunge in more than four months as newly released data sparked concerns that the economy's continued head-turning growth will cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once next year to keep inflation under wraps.</br></br>In late trading, the bellwether 30-year Treasury fell 1 11/32, or $13.438 for a bond with $1,000 face value, to 97 17/32. The bond's yield, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, rose to 6.295%. It was the benchmark bond's worst one-day performance since Aug. 6.</br></br>Shorter-term securities also dropped. Two-year notes, for example, fell 6/32 to yield 6.045%. Volume was $49.4 billion, higher than the average of the last week and last 30 days, according to GovPX Inc., which tracks trading volume at five of the six interdealer brokers.</br></br>Investors were spooked by a stronger-than-expected retail-sales report for November. The Commerce Department said retail sales jumped 0.9%, above the 0.5% increase economists expected. Excluding autos, however, sales were up 0.4%, in line with forecasts.</br></br>In addition, October sales were revised to show an overall increase of 0.3% from an unchanged reading in the initial report. As a result, what looked like slight slowing in consumer spending, and a possible precursor to a slowing economy, instead showed the economy may be overheating. | yes | 1 |
It Was a Bum Quarter for Many Area Stocks | Over the past three months investors would have been better off putting their cash in a money market fund or municipal bonds than investing in the average Washington area stock.</br></br>Though conventional wisdom contends that the longest bull market in U.S. history is still thundering ahead, "ambling" would be a more descriptive verb when it came to the second-quarter performance of stocks of companies based in the District, Maryland and Virginia.</br></br>The share price of the average regional company gained just 1.1 percent in the past quarter as measured by the Washington Post-Bloomberg Regional Stock Index. That was the poorest quarterly performance in a year, a dramatic slowdown from the average stock's 12 percent run-up in the first three months of the year.</br></br>With money market accounts and tax-exempt bonds yielding an average 5 percent to 6 percent annually, local investors who parked their money came out ahead of those who ran with the bulls.</br></br>Amid the plodding performance of regional stocks as a group, however, a handful of highflying Maryland and Virginia technology stocks were among the top performers on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market. They include: | yes | 1 |
U.S. News: Jobless Aid Shrinks Unevenly --- Benefit Cuts Hit Some Struggling States as Unemployment System Shows Strains | Workers across the country are seeing the length of their jobless benefits pared back, a shakeout that is playing out unevenly and pinching people in states still struggling with unemployment above the national average.</br></br>The changes in benefits are partly the result of an improving job market but are also due to budget pressures at the state and federal level.</br></br>In Michigan, one of the states hardest-hit by the economic downturn and where unemployment remains close to 9%, job seekers will soon receive less than a year of benefits for the first time since the recession hit in 2007.</br></br>Michigan, which like many states offered 99 weeks of state and federally funded benefits at the peak of its jobs crisis, will become the 19th state to offer less than a year of payments to new claimants for jobless benefits. Nine other states offer more than a year but less than 60 weeks. More changes are coming: North Carolina recently passed a law that will cut benefits to 20 weeks starting in July.</br></br>John Rowloff, a single father of two teenagers in Monroe, Mich., got the last of his unemployment checks earlier this year but says he has seen little improvement in the local labor market even as the state's official jobless rate has fallen to 8.9% from as high as 14.2% in 2009. | yes | 1 |
Price's Earnings To Drop; The Fund Manager Says Fees Declined | Money manager T. Rowe Price Group Inc. warned investors yesterday to expect a sharp drop in its first-quarter earnings because the stock market's decline sent the value of the firm's mutual funds and the fees it earns on those holdings sharply lower.</br></br>George A. Roche, T. Rowe Price's chairman and president, said first-quarter earnings per share would be about 30 percent lower than the 41 cents per share the company earned for the same period last year. Investment advisory fees dropped 10 percent from the first quarter of last year, Roche said, addressing shareholders at the company's annual meeting in Baltimore.</br></br>The falling stock market is having a direct effect on the bottom lines of mutual fund companies because funds usually charge customers based on a percentage of the dollar value of their investments.</br></br>At Price, the nation's eighth-largest mutual fund family, those fees made up about three-quarters of total revenue last year. It had $140 billion in total assets under management at the end of the quarter, down 12.4 percent from a year ago.</br></br>"Management can't do all that much right now," said Kenneth Worthington, an analyst for CIBC World Markets. "This comes down to market conditions improving and the stock market going up and people putting more money" in mutual funds, he said. | yes | 1 |
Firewood Market Is Cooling Down | IN COLLEGE, Stephen Fenig specialized in foreign affairs. In the recession, he is specializing in firewood.</br></br>Fenig, who is 21 and graduated from the University of Virginia last year, discovered, quickly, that there were few jobs in his specialty. To have any hope at all, he would have to getanadvanced degree.</br></br>Suddenly FenigÛªs horizons shrank from their international proportions. Remembering the energy crisis of last winter, when people were stockpiling firewood as if it were gold bullion (or sugar or toilet paper or paper bags), he decided to help satisfy what he thought would be a comparable demand this year.</br></br>He bought a truck, a power saw, some wedges, an ax, a sledge hammer and some expensive accident insurance and began looking for trees that could be converted into cords of firewood that, delivered and stacked, would sell for $60.</br></br>in places as distant as Orange County and as close as construction sites in his neighborhood in Falls Church, Fenig found enough hickory and oak logs to get started in business. | no | 0 |
Gathering Seeks Solutions for City's Poorer Residents | Tom Brown, chairman of the Ward 8 Workforce Development Council, has perfected an approach to attacking urban poverty: He takes employers on a job tour in Southeast Washington neighborhoods to personally meet with unemployed residents.</br></br>Since October, more than 100 residents have found jobs in the twice-monthly sessions at churches and community centers in the heart of the neighborhood. The goal is to employ 300 residents a year.</br></br>"The success of it is because of the intimacy of the setup," Brown said. "It's straight talk between unemployed residents and employers."</br></br>If the city is going to reduce the number of families living in poverty, then innovative methods, such as Brown's, must be used to address unemployment, substance abuse, affordable housing, health care and education, he and others gathered at the Matthews Memorial Baptist Church in Southeast said yesterday.</br></br>Brown was one of 200 business and religious leaders, housing advocates and social services providers who participated in the Poverty Reduction Coalition hosted by D.C. Council member Marion Barry (D-Ward 8). | no | 0 |
U.S. to Ratchet Up Borrowing; Treasury Expects Need of $555 Billion As Deficit Widens | With this fiscal year's budget deficit expected to more than double from the previous year, the U.S. government plans to nearly quadruple its borrowing to $555 billion.</br></br>The increase reflects lower tax receipts due to the ailing economy, higher outlays from the economic-stimulus package, as well as large redemptions by the Federal Reserve in connection with its liquidity initiatives.</br></br>This week, the Treasury estimated it will borrow $171 billion in marketable debt in the July-September quarter, $59 billion more than it previously projected and the second-highest borrowing figure on record. The highest was $244 billion in January-March 2008. It borrowed $13 billion of marketable debt in the second quarter.</br></br>"The increase in borrowing is primarily due to higher outlays and lower net issuances of state and local government-series securities," the Treasury said in a statement accompanying its borrowing-needs estimate.</br></br>The latest projection for this quarter would leave the Treasury with an estimated cash balance of $45 billion Sept. 30. | no | 0 |
Rediscovering Risk | The sniper murdering at will in the Washington area is a metaphor for the defining characteristic of our new era. It is not terrorism, not an unsteady economy, not the threat of a new war in Iraq -- not even the danger of random assassins. It is risk.</br></br>Though risk never vanished, we forgot about it in the 1990s. We effectively abolished large national risks -- though not small private risks -- through a series of public myths. We presumed that we could control our surroundings in ways that would provide a permanent security and allow most of us to retreat into our private worlds. Because this was a fantasy, we have become victims of our own delusions.</br></br>Myth number one was that, as the "sole remaining superpower," we were gradually molding the world in our image. After the Cold War, American ideas of democracy and economic freedom emerged triumphant. Global problems were increasingly distant and decreasingly dangerous, because more nations were thinking and acting like us.</br></br>A second myth was the "new economy." Economic anxieties declined as the stock market rose and unemployment fell. People felt liberated from traditional economic fears. Politics receded in importance -- it seemed less essential to people's well-being -- and became increasingly regarded as entertainment. For a while, it focused on the constitutional consequences of the president's sex drive.</br></br>All this involves, of course, breathtaking generalization. During these years, there were issues that mattered and dangers that intruded. We waged a small war in Kosovo; AIDS continued to advance; crime remained; Asia suffered a financial crisis. But in some ways, the exceptions seemed to confirm the retreat of risk. The air war in Kosovo was fought without American casualties; new drugs combated AIDS; crime declined; and the economy seemed resilient to Asia's crisis. | no | 0 |
PGCC Chief Appeals to Candidates For Money; Williams Says College Needs County's Support | Prince George's Community College President Ronald A. Williams has a simple message for this year's candidates in the race for county executive: Help!</br></br>In a letter sent to the contenders, Williams, starting his fourth year at the helm of the 36,000-student college, appealed for increased financial support after the election.</br></br>In case the candidates had any doubts about the college's needs, Williams detailed "four funding initiatives for the 2002 political campaign platform." "One of the things that struck me as the campaign has gone along is that even though education is central to what every candidate sees as important, I don't think the community college has had a sufficiently high profile in that conversation," Williams said in an interview. "I have a concern about the minimalist approach the county has taken for 40 years in providing resources for the college."</br></br>It's all about money. But it's also about the increasing role the college has come to play in the life of the county, with more than 47 percent of college-bound Prince George's students enrolling there. Since Williams's arrival in 1999, enrollment has risen 8 percent.</br></br>At the same time, county funds account for 22 percent of the college's operating budget, down from 27 percent six years ago. That's "the lowest level of local aid to a community college in the state," Williams wrote. | no | 0 |
Big Inventory Cuts Help Stocks Forge Broad-Based Rally | NEW YORK, May 9 (AP)ÛÓThe stock market forged a broad-based rally today, with spirits lifted by news of a massive inventory reduction in March.</br></br>The Dow Jones average of 30 industrials gained 9.63 to 850.13, climbing steadily throughout the session.</br></br>The main source of encouragement appeared to be a government report as the market opened that business inventories fell a record $1.92 billion in March. On the surface, the figure showed that business activity had slowed markedly from previous months.</br></br>But Wall Street chose the bullish interpretation that businesses must reduce their swollen stocks of unsold goods before dn economic rebound can get under way.</br></br>There were J.084 gainers on the New York Stock Exchange, and 429 losers of fH*>ck842idå©&eehåÈtiaåÇl. 1-31 to båÇt8Haari8å¨&l,-vPtbPsrnsoflset,s good showing. ÛÏI wonder if the market hasnÛªt gone from extreme pessimism to over-optimism," said analyst Alan | no | 0 |
Dow Off 5; NYSE Breaks Trading Volume Record | NEW YORK, Dec, 15ÛÓStocks fell today as a record for trading volume that had stood since the day after the 1987 stock market crash was toppled on the New York Stock Exchange.</br></br>; The unprecedented volume was tied to the so-called "triple-witchingÛ expiration of stock options and futures, and to continued selling of technology issues as investors cashed in on the big gains ol the year.</br></br>' The Dow Jones industrial average traded in a harrow range all day before closing the day down 5.42 points at 5176.73. Despite the minor retreat today, the blue-chip average still gained 19.87 points for the week.</br></br>ÐÊ Volume on the NYSE was the heaviest in history at 653.16 million shares, topping the 608.15 million that changed hands on Oct. 20, 1987, the day after the 1987 Black Monday qrash. The exchange said its trading systems hud capacity to spare even in the peak periods if the day.</br></br>' Treasury bond prices ended mixed in quiet trading following a breakdown in federal budget negotiations and mounting uncertainty over (jit Federal Reserve's next decision on interest rates. The price of the TreasuryÛªs main 30-ycar bond slipped 5-32 point, or $1.56 per 1,000 in face value. Its yield, which moves in le opposition direction, rose to 6.09 percent from 6.08 percent late Thursday. | no | 0 |
Stock Market Gains In Sluggish Trading | NEW YORKÛÓThe stock market reversed its recent downward course Tuesday hut could not pul much power into the advance.</br></br>The Dow Jones average of 30 indsutrials rose 6.88 to 846.84, while gainers edged out losers by about 7 to 6 margin on the New York Stock Exchange.</br></br>Brokers termed the upswing largely technical, although some said there was a bit of hope on Wall Street that interest rates, which have been rising steeply in the past few weeks,' might be ready to top out.</br></br>Allied Chemical, which posted a 50 per cent earnings gain for the first quarter, rose Its to 4IV2 in active trading.</br></br>Other gainers in the chemical group included Du Pont, up 1% at 170, and Dow Chemical, 1% points ahead at 61. | no | 0 |
U.S. News: A Shaky Advance Led by Oil Money | Seven years after the U.S.-led invasion, Iraq's petroleum industry shows signs of living up to the potential that American planners hoped for at the start of the military operation, a potential boost to the war-ravaged country's economic recovery.</br></br>After fits and starts, Iraq's oil production has rebounded to prewar levels. The government thinks the field-development deals it has handed out to international companies are on the way to boosting output significantly. With Iraq depending on oil exports for some 90% of its government revenue, that is expected to provide a broader boost to an economy that is already benefiting from high growth and tame inflation.</br></br>No one is predicting an economic miracle in Iraq, which is still smarting from decades of sanctions, underinvestment and a creaky, centrally planned economy. Unemployment remains high, posing a continued risk that jobless youth will be lured to the insurgency. Power outages are common, leaving residents sweltering in darkness and complaining at times that things were better before the invasion.</br></br>The Bush administration denied going to war over oil. But senior officials in Washington suggested early in the military operation that Iraq's oil wealth offered a quick way to rebuild.</br></br>Years of trying to lure outside capital and know-how, however, foundered. During the invasion, oil production went to zero. Afterward, the country's oil infrastructure and power grid -- never reliable in the first place -- were heavily looted. Then, political opposition to foreign involvement in the country's oil fields flared. | no | 0 |
Loan Demand Drops Sharply | CHICAGO, May 20 ÛÓ Demand for loans * at the nationÛªs major banks turned down sharply in recent weeks after growing substantially in the first three months of the year and probably wonÛªt grow at all for the rest of 1.980 because of the recession, top offi-1 cials of Continental Illinois National Bå£nk said today.</br></br>(/Û÷Our loan demand peaked in the week of March 26,Û according to George R. Baker, executive vice president of the largest seventh largest bank. That was less than two weeks after President Carter announced a nhw anti-inflation program with sharp constraints on the extension of credit to businesses and consumers.</br></br>'.Part of the presidentÛªs program included a ceiling of between 6 percent and 9 percent on the growth of bank Ioans in 1980. ÛÏIn mid-March that may have looked troublesome. Now it doesnÛªt look like a problem,Û said Baker.</br></br>He said that because of falling loan demand on the part of both busi-i^nesses and consumers, interest rates f rSSould continue to decline.</br></br>- The prime rate, which was cut to 16 Û¢i percent Monday, should be down to 12 percent or 13 percent by the end of Û¢ 'the 'year, he said. Less than five weeks | no | 0 |
All Sides Brace for World Bank Protests; D.C. Police Warn Commuters to Avoid Driving Tomorrow | Activists began trickling into Washington yesterday as the numerous players on the city's protest stage -- organizers, downtown office workers, police -- searched for housing, prepared to shut some buildings and mobilized their forces for tomorrow's curtain- raising.</br></br>Protesters, organizing for demonstrations targeting this weekend's annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, offered street medic training, set up the Anti- Authoritarian Babysitters Club and scrambled for bed space in churches, hostels and friends' homes.</br></br>Police prepared for the arrival of 1,700 out-of-town officers to help create a force of about 3,200. They also ordered city crews to remove benches, newspaper boxes and cigarette urns from some downtown sidewalks and urged commuters to stay off the roads in the District tomorrow. Police officials said they would establish a fenced perimeter tonight around the World Bank and IMF headquarters in Foggy Bottom.</br></br>Police preparations focused on a mix of permitted and unpermitted demonstrations, including a call to bring traffic and business activity in the District to a standstill tomorrow and to prevent IMF and World Bank delegates from leaving their meetings Saturday.</br></br>District officials have said the city will remain open for business, but some offices took extra security steps. | no | 0 |
Union Chiefs Denounce Warnings of Inflation: Meany Meets Press Saulnier Assailed | ' The leaders of organized labor yesterday denounced "phoney" inflation warnings from the "profit-swollenÛ steel industry. The labor chiefs also praised the economic philosophy of the Steelworkers Union and accused President EisenhowersÛª chief economic adviser of ÛÏprejudicial" interference with steelÛªs collective bargaining.</br></br>These statements highlighted the opening session of a quarterly meeting of the AFL-CIO Executive Council here. The Council, which consists of 27 union presidents.</br></br>Û¢ Put off an investigation into alleged corrupt practices by President Maurice Hutcheson of the Carpenters Union.</br></br>Meany told reporters the AFL-CIO would not investigate this case until HutchesonÛªs indictment has been disposed of in order to avoid prejudicing the Carpenter leaderÛªs standing before a jury.</br></br>But Federation officials last night gave conflicting figures on what the over all membership nowÛª is. Their estimates hovered around 13.2 million. | no | 0 |
High-Tech Promise Held Overstated: Not Seen as Curing All Economic... | The high-tech industry, the supposed savior of sagging economies everywhere, is seriously overrated as an answer to unemployment and recession, industry observers report.</br></br>A forest of myths obscures some unpleasant realities: high tech creates few jobs, accounting for only about 8 percent of total U.S. employment; the jobs it creates are primarily middle-level ones, rather than either very highly skilled or assembly-line positions; it is not, in many cases, a ÛÏcleanÛ industry, and it is dominated by a few giant corporations.</br></br>Local jurisdictions, trade groups and federal agencies monitoring the industry have their own, frequently widely varying definitions of a high-tech company. As a result, there is widespread disagreement on how much employment should be credited to these firms.</br></br>The National Science Foundation, the U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics and many experts, such as Robert Z. Lawrence, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, use narrower definitions than those of most local jurisdictions and boards of trade, which often count firms with slight connections to high tech.</br></br>Montgomery County, for example, includes a contact lens manufacturer in its high-tech biological and medical firms, and a general management consulting company among its high-tech computer firms, according to a Greater Washington Research Center report. | no | 0 |
Retailers Post Modest Gains For December --- Christmas Sales Were Poor, Though Not a Disaster, As Markdowns Hurt Net | The nation's big retailers reported modest gains for December, with heavy markdowns putting severe pressure on their profit margins.</br></br>Securities analysts said the Christmas shopping season was the worst for retailers in several years, but not as poor as they had expected earlier. "All in all, in contrast to previous forecasts of a very gloomy Christmas, many (retailers) reported sales gains in line with their plans -- that is, the plans revised after the (stock market) crash," said Jeffrey Feiner, vice president of Merrill Lynch Capital Markets.</br></br>Jeffrey Edelman, an industry analyst at Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc., said, "It was not as robust as we would have thought in July but a lot better than we thought on Oct. 20."</br></br>Discounters did best, specialty apparel retailers did the worst, and department stores fell in between last month. The average gain in sales at stores open for a year or more was about 4.5% to 5%, analysts said. But same-store gains of specialty retailers fell by 4% to 5%, said Fred Wintzer, an analyst at Alex. Brown & Sons Inc. in Baltimore.</br></br>At Chicago-based Sears, Roebuck & Co., the nation's largest retailer, same-store sales rose 2.8%. For stores open more than a year at Dayton Hudson Corp., based in Minneapolis, sales were up only 1.4%. Same-store sales rose 3% at Los Angeles-based Carter Hawley Hale Stores Inc. and at Chicago-based Montgomery Ward & Co., a unit of Mobil Corp. The Columbus, Ohio-based specialty apparel retailer Limited Inc. reported a 2% decline in same-store sales for December. | no | 0 |
Ctje toastimgton post | The average yield on seven-year notes at yesterdayÛªs Treasury auction was 11.75 percent, up from 11.61 percent on Oct. 5.</br></br>Yields on accepted bids ranged from 11.74 percent to 11.75 percent, and 97 percent of the bids at the highest return, or stop-out rate, were accepted.</br></br>The Treasury received bids totaling $13.54 billion and accepted $5.25 billion, including $558 million of noncompetitive tenders at the average yield. The average dollar price was 99.981 and the coupon rate was set at 11.75 percent.</br></br>Allegheny Beverage Corp. said yesterday it acquired the assets consisting of coin-operated washers and dryers of Hardina Metered Laundry Co. of Richmond, Calif., for an undisclosed price.</br></br>The laundry units, in the San Francisco Bay area, will be operated by AlleghenyÛªs San Francisco-based Macke Laundry West Inc. subsidiary. | no | 0 |
Pound Surges, Despite Fed's Move to Curb It --- Britain, Clarifying Policy, Says Rein on Currency Is Looser; Dollar Falls | The British pound continued its surge in foreign-exchange trading yesterday but ran into resistance from the U.S. Federal Reserve.</br></br>The dollar, meanwhile, fell in moderately active New York trading despite the Fed's attempts to prop it up and limit the pound's gains.</br></br>According to dealers at several New York banks, the Fed sold #70 million ($131.8 million) of the British currency in afternoon trading after sterling climbed to its intraday highs of $1.8825 and 3.1250 West German marks. The intervention against the pound was probably done on behalf of the Bank of England, which was concerned with the market's new rush to the British currency, traders said.</br></br>In late New York trading, the pound stood at $1.8755, up 0.5% from $1.8660 late Tuesday. Over the past two weeks, the pound has gained 2.8% against the dollar after an announced shift in British monetary policy made the fight against inflation the top priority.</br></br>The pound's latest gains followed remarks made in London by Britain's top financial official. | no | 0 |
Treasurys Rise Slightly, Unfazed by Fed Remarks; Investors Convinced Rates Will Remain Unchanged Through Rest of the Year | U.S. Treasury prices rose moderately as investors shrugged off comments by Federal Reserve officials that did little to change the prevailing view of a central bank on hold for the rest of the year.</br></br>Data on New York state manufacturing, which showed stronger-than- expected activity, also left little mark on Treasurys.</br></br>"I think everybody now understands where the Fed stands," said Rick Klingman, managing director of U.S. rates trading for ABN Amro in New York, referring to the Fed's focus on inflation risk. "While we may get Fed speakers this week, I don't think that will shake the market up," he said.</br></br>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said the inflation rate is too high, but "my best guess is that inflation is likely to be tapering down." He added that "the inflation news has been slightly more positive" of late. Lower energy prices are likely aiding this improvement, he said.</br></br>San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said it makes sense to keep rates on hold "for a time" as the 17 increases work their way through the economy. | no | 0 |
Japanese Trade Talks Reaching Crucial Point | After years of bickering with Japan over specific trade disputes, the Bush administration decided last July to try a new approach-a frontal assault on "Japan Inc.," the tightly knit Japanese business practices and economic policies that U.S. trade officials believe give Tokyo much of its competitive edge in the world.</br></br>This new approach, the first time two sovereign nations have tried through negotiations to pull apart each other's economic systems and demand changes in them, has heightened the tense trade relationship between the United States and Japan to a new pitch following President Bush's personal intervention in talks with Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu in February.</br></br>This week, the negotiations reach a crucial point. U.S. officials said the results of a preliminary report on the negotiations, to be drafted during two days of talks in Washington beginning tomorrow, will determine whether the Bush administration orders trade sanctions against Japan that could double import taxes on selected Japanese products.</br></br>Administration officials appear united on the need to retaliate if the preliminary report fails to show what U.S. Trade Representative Carla Hills called "a constructive blueprint for future action" by Japan to change its internal economy in ways that open the door to significantly more foreign goods and investment.</br></br>Even Hills, whose voice is among the more restrained in the administration on the tendentious Japan trade issue, said this time promises of action will not be enough. She said there will have to be "a sufficient down payment to show the American people there is real ... resolve" to open Japan to more foreign goods and investments. | no | 0 |
Control Board To Take Lead On D.C. Cuts; Panel Won't Wait for Barry, Will Make Own Fiscal Plan | The D.C. financial control board, moving to exert greater authority over the District government, said yesterday that it would develop its own long-range financial plan for the city after Mayor Marion Barry missed a legal deadline Thursday for presenting a plan of his own.</br></br>John W. Hill Jr., the control board's executive director, said the board had no intention of delaying its work and would begin putting together a comprehensive plan to revive the D.C. government and balance the budget. Board officials have asked the District's independent chief financial officer, Anthony A. Williams, to submit ideas for spending cuts and other changes.</br></br>Barry (D), who said he plans to have his document ready in two weeks, reacted angrily yesterday to accusations that he has become "irrelevant" and has "abdicated" responsibility for running the city. But the mayor's assurances that his plan was forthcoming did not satisfy the board.</br></br>"We are no longer waiting for the mayor," Hill said. "For the first six or seven months {since the control board was appointed}, we have been in the position of deferring to the elected leadership for their ideas. There is tremendous respect for home rule and sensitivity to the fact that the board members were not elected. But there comes a point in time when you just can't wait any longer."</br></br>At a news conference yesterday, Barry lashed out at control board Vice Chairman Stephen D. Harlan, who threatened to cut the mayor's pay and staff after the mayor said he does not plan to propose more major spending cuts this year. Barry said the board has that duty. And, he said, Harlan doesn't understand that poor members of the community cannot endure massive spending reductions that would eliminate a mounting budget deficit. | no | 0 |
Some economists warn that inflation may be back to haunt the economy | The old dragon of inflation -- thought to have been slain -- may be lurking.</br></br>Many economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, aren't worried -- yet. But there have been confusing warning signs in recent weeks. Core inflation, the prices consumers pay for goods and services, excluding food and energy, increased 0.5% in both January and February. Hourly earnings jumped 0.5% in March and are running at a 4% annual rate of increase for the first three months of the year.</br></br>It's a fluke, say Federal Reserve officials, who believe that the economy is too soft to support a round of big price increases. But that view may be rattled tomorrow and Friday, when the Labor Department releases new data on movement on the producer price and consumer price indexes in March. If the numbers show another solid increase in prices, it could incite much more serious worries about inflation.</br></br>Low inflation has been one of the bittersweet benefits of this unusually sluggish recovery. Demand hasn't been strong enough to allow retailers and producers to up the prices of goods. And a weak labor market has kept wages relatively subdued. As a result, consumer prices edged up their smallest amount in six years during 1992.</br></br>But now that the economy is showing signs of firming, some businesses are trying to push through price increases, hoping the market will finally bear it. "Industry sectors are trying to recoup what they gave up in the depth of the downturn," said Mark Steinkrauss, vice president of investor relations for Fruit of the Loom Inc. The company raised prices 5% on a line of T-shirts at the start of the year. | yes | 1 |
ti2 WEUiNfcAUAY, JlliNE Z4, IVU/ | NEW YORK, June 23ÛÓThe stock market declined in active trading today, snapping an 11-day advance as the support it had drawn from the stronger dollar and bond markets began to fail away.</br></br>The market started out by posting a strong gain. The closely watched Dow Jones barometer had advanced a brisk 10.17 points by 11 a.m. at 2455.68.</br></br>"The stock market took its cue from those two [bonds and the dollar],Û said Hugh Johnson, senior vice president at First Albany</br></br>Analysts, suggested that Wall StreetÛªs new bearish sentiment could have been deepened by todayÛªs news that the United States owed the rest of the world $263.6 billion at the end of 1986, lengthening its lead as the world's largest debtor nation.</br></br>Shares of Dayton Hudson Corp. gyrated wildly after a Cincinnati portfolio manager made a purported $70-a-share buyout offer for the company. The offer was later discredited. The retailer has been the target of takeover speculation for weeks. It closed at 53, down 1, and was the second most actively traded stock on the NYSE. | no | 0 |
Baron Managers Get Caught in the Net --- Fund Team Finds Few Stocks Meet Its Criteria | You've just been given $200 million to invest, but with a catch. You can buy only Internet stocks. And you're expected to deliver big returns, while avoiding risks.</br></br>That's the opportunity -- and challenge -- facing mutual-fund manager Matthew Ervin, who finds himself on a recent day trying to pursuade his boss that he has found Net stocks that fit these seemingly contradictory criteria.</br></br>With feigned patience, he paces a sunlit conference room, explaining the history of computing: Computers have gotten progressively faster, but until recently, everything was slowed by the lack of bandwidth. Now that the pipes have opened up, a new era has dawned, and companies seizing that change would be great investments for his soon-to-be launched mutual fund, even at today's sky-high prices.</br></br>Morty Schaja, president of Baron Capital Group, disagrees with his fund manager. "I'm uncomfortable with the business," he says. "But if the valuation was 10 or 20 times less than it is now, I might be interested."</br></br>Too risky, too expensive. And so it goes as Mr. Ervin, 30 years old, and his co-manager, Mitchell Rubin, 34, try to identify stocks for one of the latest entries in the Internet-fund sweepstakes: Baron iOpportunity. At this point, late in the afternoon of Feb. 29, just 18 hours before the fund goes live, the managers have approvals to buy just 15 stocks, unless prices drop significantly. Yet they have a lot of cash to put to work -- $199,626,449.63 to be precise. That's the amount Baron, a highly respected boutique-fund family, has raised for the new portfolio. | no | 0 |
Slowdown Expected To Squeeze Incomes; Most Economists See Little Chance of Severe Recession | After an often vigorous 6 1/2-year expansion that put 17.5 million more Americans to work, the U.S. economy appears to be entering an extended period of slow growth that will squeeze income gains for many Americans.</br></br>The onset of this slowdown has been signaled in several ways recently. Consumer spending for new cars and other expensive, long-lasting goods is down substantially from last year's levels. Fewer new homes are being constructed and sold. New orders for a wide range of goods, an indicator of future production and employment levels, slumped in May.</br></br>On Friday, the Labor Department reported that unemployment rose last month to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent in May. The number of new jobs now being created is down from the pace of 1988.</br></br>Mounting evidence of the slowdown persuaded the Federal Reserve to ease its grip on credit again last week and most banks are expected to drop their prime lending rate this week, from 11 percent to 10.5 percent.</br></br>By this careful steering, the Fed continues to seek a "soft landing" in which credit remains tight enough and economic growth slow enough to keep inflation under control without forcing a sharp downward slide into a recession. | no | 0 |
A Taxed Market Reopens | The market didn't crash. The 684-point fall doesn't even make history's top 10 percentage declines. And so we may conclude that if Congress now does the right thing quickly on tax policy, the market will rise.</br></br>Problem is, the early indications we're getting is that Congress may enact a new tax bill using conventional means, such as tax credits, mainly to shore up the largest corporations. Incentives at the margin will be minimal. That is, half a loaf.</br></br>The outlook would be considerably more worrisome had the market's indices spent the whole of yesterday in a steady, precipitous decline. The reality is that most of the day's 7.13% loss occurred in the first hour of trading, and remained fairly flat through the day.</br></br>A 684-point drop is a rough ride, and the burden on the market at the opening bell was substantial. The economy before last week was already in the doldrums, with little upside evident so far from a series of interest rate cuts, or for that matter the tax rebate. Much of the airline industry has suffered for years from fixed union costs that leave little room for sustained profitability. The closure of the air transport system may have merely pitched several airlines toward inevitable dissolution, which would be reflected in yesterday's trading.</br></br>That said, share prices generally rose in Europe, and Asia's losses were modest. It is a small miracle that trading in New York opened at all; most likely operations will smooth in the weeks and months ahead. Most importantly, all available evidence suggests that the men and women who make up the American economy are prepared to move heaven and earth to prove that their system will not be defeated by homicidal barbarism. | yes | 1 |
Long-Dated Treasurys Plunge On Fed's Inflation Assessment; Market Fears Policy Makers Aren't Aggressive Enough; Two-Year Notes Are Steady | Dow Jones Newswires</br></br>NEW YORK -- Long-dated Treasurys plummeted on fears that the Federal Reserve isn't acting aggressively enough to avert a rise in inflation. But two-year notes, which often weaken quickly amid concerns about Fed policy tightening, scarcely moved, reassured by the Fed's apparent pledge to move only gradually in raising interest rates.</br></br>"The market doesn't agree with the Fed's assessment" on inflation, said Gerald Lucas, head of U.S. Treasury and agency strategy at Banc of America Securities.</br></br>After concluding its meeting yesterday, the Fed's policy setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement that "at this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured."</br></br>That was "a very, very benign statement," said Bill Quan, economist at Mizuho Securities in Hoboken, N.J. | no | 0 |
Departure Blurs Nasdaq Succession --- Eric Noll, Seen as Leading Internal Candidate for the Top Job, Resigned to Become ConvergEx CEO | Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. senior executive Eric Noll, once considered a likely successor to the exchange operator's chief executive, quit to take the top position at a brokerage firm.</br></br>Mr. Noll, 51 years old, said he would become chief executive of ConvergEx Group LLC, a broker for institutional traders and money managers.</br></br>The move surprised many industry experts, most of whom had anticipated Mr. Noll would stay at Nasdaq until current Chief Executive Robert Greifeld retired.</br></br>But Mr. Greifeld, 56, has shown no signs of leaving. His current contract, signed last year, lasts until 2017. Under direction from its board, Nasdaq had been working on an executive succession plan for two years, although no details have been made public.</br></br>The company also has been considering outside candidates for the succession plan, according to a person familiar with discussions at Nasdaq. | no | 0 |
Stocks Fall; Bonds Take a Beating;Nervous Market Pushes Dow Average Down 8.93 Points | The stock market suffered new losses yesterday after a day of nervous gyrations, but the major damage was in the bond market, where a sharp sell-off occurred as Treasury bond interest rates rose to almost 9.5 percent-their highest level since early last year.</br></br>The Dow Jones industrial average, the stock market's key indicator, closed at 2602.04, down 8.93 points. The Dow, which spent most of the day on the minus side, was off as much as 29 points at 2 p.m. but recovered somewhat by the close of trading.</br></br>The bond market was the focal point of yesterday's action as the price of the bellwether 30-year Treasury bond fell $17.50 for every $1,000 of face value, raising yields to almost 9.5 percent. The bond's price dropped $11.50 per $1,000 on Tuesday. Bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions in order to adjust the yield of older bonds to make them competitive with newer bonds.</br></br>Market analysts said the fall in bond prices was based on continued weakness of the dollar in global currency markets and signs of growing strength in the nation's economy. The bond market interprets both events as the forerunners of tighter money policies, higher interest rates and losses in the value of bonds.</br></br>In the currency markets, the dollar fell below 141 yen and below 1.8 West German marks. Analysts said a weak dollar raises fears among investors that the Federal Reserve will have to boost interest rates to bolster the currency. | yes | 1 |
Greenspan Marches On | There have been reports of dissension so strong among policy makers in the Federal Reserve System as to threaten chairman Alan Greenspan with loss of control and authority over the nation's powerful central bank.</br></br>Fed governor Wayne Angell, one of the leaders of a 1986 revolt that forced former Chairman Paul A. Volcker to amend his ways, and reportedly one of the current dissenters, tells me: "It's nothing like that. There's no challenge to Greenspan's control or authority. The whole thing has been overblown."</br></br>Greenspan himself is understood to have declared forcefully that there has been no diminution of his authority or threat of that happening. He acknowledges there have been disagreements within the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but he sees them as narrow and tranquil compared with earlier years.</br></br>Many sources agree that the six Fed governors (in addition to the chairman) and the 12 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents play a larger role now under Greenspan than they did under Arthur Burns or under Volcker when a "Gang of Four" governors, including Angell, in effect forced Volcker to use a more collegial and less dictatorial guiding hand.</br></br>Despite the present dust-up, moreover, it still seems likely that President Bush will reappoint Greenspan to another four-year term this August - which, it can be assumed, he wants. | no | 0 |
Market Pushes Higher, S&L Shares in Lead | NEW YORK, Feb. 3 ÛÓit's attention still firmly fixed on the apparent trend to easier money, the stock market churned higher again today. J'he move came in spite of a growing chorus of analysts's warnings that a downward correction is overdue after the sharp runup since the first of the year.</br></br>The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher right after the opening and held its gains as some traders buttoned down profits before the weekend. Tiie Dow finished at 857.46, up 4.34 points. The NYSE index was ahead 0.34 point to 47.73 anc! Standard & PoorÛªs 500 - stock composite rose 0.63 point to 87.36.</br></br>Volume soared to 12.02 million shares from 10.72 million on Thursday and advancing stocks outnumbered declines by more than two to one. There were 832 winners on the day, up from 684 the day before, and 226 losers, compared with 127 a day earlier. New 1966-67 highs jumped to '95 from 70 and there were no new lows.</br></br>thing of the past were evident in the list of 15 most active stocks. Four of the six most active issues were savings and loan companies, which are expected to be among the biggest beneficiaries of lower interest rates, in addition, the Federal National Mortgage Administration T burs d a y raised the price it will pay for home loans, providing more money to help the slumping home building industry.</br></br>California Financial was the most active stock of the day, adding :it of a point to 6: i. Great Western was in second spot, up half a point to 14'jj, Imperial Corp. of American was fifth most active, up Hk to 8r:s and First Western Financial was next, up a point to 5:!-i. First Charter added :;'t to 26 without making the active list. | no | 0 |
Crude Steady Ahead of Bernanke, Obama Speeches | NEW YORK--Crude futures were nearly flat as traders waited for more clues on how policy makers will act to spur the economy.</br></br>Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $89.50 a barrel in early trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange edged 0.2% higher at $115.97 a barrel.</br></br>After rising to one-month highs Wednesday, oil futures are holding steady ahead of speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and President Barack Obama. The U.S. officials are expected to provide some indications of how the government will tackle stalled economic growth.</br></br>The fate of the broader economy has become the main driver of crude prices in recent weeks. Traders are concerned that Europe's debt crisis could push major economies back into recession, hurting oil demand.</br></br>Oil futures have followed the stock market as a proxy for economic growth expectations. | yes | 1 |
Cutting Aid to the Disabled Is a Bad Way to Save Money | Kudos to the Journal for getting it right in the article "," page one, May 20). As you wrote, "Logically, states would cut the most expensive, least efficient services and keep the most cost-effective." However, they are doing anything but by targeting home and community-based services for persons with developmental disabilities.</br></br>Leaving aside the inhumanity of targeting such a vulnerable population, it is simply bad fiscal policy. Cutting these services results in adverse situations for the individuals, families and communities involved. When hours for personal-care attendants are cut to levels that no longer allow individuals to live in their own homes, one result is far costlier and undesirable nursing-home care. Additionally, direct-care workers lose jobs, further increasing state unemployment rates and, ironically, adding to Medicaid rolls. Moreover, states forfeit significant federal matching funds for home and community-based services.</br></br>People with cerebral palsy and other developmental disabilities and their families face these tragic problems daily. These are real lives at risk due to misguided state policy.</br></br>Stephen Bennett</br></br>President and Chief Executive | no | 0 |
BUSINESS BRIEFS | Greenhorne & O'Mara Inc. in Greenbelt was awarded a four-year open- end contract worth $3 million by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDoT) to provide preliminary engineering and environmental management services.</br></br>Under the contract, Greenhorne & O'Mara will supervise and review preliminary engineering and environmental studies prepared by consultants. The firm also may manage the preliminary and final design phases of major highway and other statewide transportation projects on behalf of PennDoT.</br></br>"G&O's services under this contract will enable PennDoT to process a larger volume of work," explained A. James O'Mara, president and co- founder of Greenhorne & O'Mara. "In addition, we will be supplying strategic input into PennDoT's environmental policy and troubleshooting projects stalled by environmental concerns."</br></br>Versa-Lite Systems Inc. of Chantilly said it won a contract from Marvol USA for the System 99, which provides an electronic map display for immediate analysis.</br></br>Versa-Lite Systems has been providing electronic maps for corporate, government, military and emergency management markets for 20 years. | no | 0 |
West German Cut In Discount Rate Seen as Unlikely | FRANKFURT, West Germany -- West Germany's central bank isn't expected to reduce its discount rate when its policy-setting panel meets tomorrow, despite pressure to follow recent cuts by the U.S. and Japan.</br></br>West German banking analysts said they expect the Bundesbank to leave the discount rate unchanged at 3.5% because of concern over money-supply growth and the German mark's weakness in the European Monetary System, a joint float of eight continental European currencies. The analysts said that if the central bank takes any action, it is likely to lower the Lombard rate, which currently is 5.5%.</br></br>The Lombard rate, a short-term fee under which banks borrow funds from the central bank using securities as collateral, has served as an upper marker for West German money-market rates. The discount rate, a longer-term rate under which banks can borrow using bills -- primarily government and commercial paper -- as collateral, serves as the central bank's key tool for steering market interest rates.</br></br>In Washington, the Treasury declined to comment on the possibility that the West German central bank might reduce its Lombard rate. But in general, U.S. reaction was muted.</br></br>The Reagan administration would prefer to see the Bundesbank cut its discount rate rather than the Lombard rate, which is narrower in scope. However, any cut in the Lombard rate still would be seen as a welcome gesture of West German support for the latest round of interest rate cuts and would be within the range the U.S. wants. | no | 0 |
Apple Shares Rise Ahead of iPad Launch | Apple Inc. shares set an all-time high Monday as investors look ahead to the launch of the iPad tablet computer at the end of the week.</br></br>Apple shares hit $233.87 in morning trading on the Nasdaq stock market. By midafternoon shares had eased to $232.13, up half a percent on the day. The stock has risen about 15% since the company introduced the iPad at a media event in late January, and has more than doubled from its level at this time last year.</br></br>The iPad goes on sale in the U.S. Saturday at prices from $499 to $829, depending on memory and options. Apple says the device will be sold online through its Web site, at its retail stores and at most stores owned by Best Buy Co., its retail partner for the launch.</br></br>Expectations for the device are high. Analysts for Morgan Stanley wrote in a note Monday they expect Apple to ship about 2.5 million units in its first quarter on the market, and more than 6 million units this year. Lead analyst Katy Huberty estimates that every 1 million units equates to 25 cents a share on the company's bottom line.</br></br>"Recent upward revisions to iPad-build rates point to strong initial preorders, and should help deliver upside relative to consensus expectations in the June quarter and [calendar year] 2010," she wrote. | no | 0 |
Job Growth Is Seen Slowing In Second Half --- Conference Board Predicts Businesses Will Still Feel Pressure to Trim Staffs | The country's meager job growth in the first half will continue at an even slower pace for the rest of year as more companies cut staff, the Conference Board predicts.</br></br>The pressure to contain costs is prevalent despite recent signs that the worldwide economy is picking up, Gail Fosler, the board's chief economist said at a news conference.</br></br>"The leading indicators suggest an upturn in Japan and an incipient upturn in Europe, except for Germany," she said. But because international competition will remain intense amid weak demand, she said, virtually all U.S. industries will remain under price pressure.</br></br>The positive effect of that pressure is that a rise in short-term interest rates isn't likely over the next 12 months, and longterm rates could decline further, she added. Moreover, her reading of economic figures and anecdotal evidence from corporate members of the Conference Board indicate that "the talk about an increase in inflation is absolutely crazy."</br></br>The spate of recent job cut announcements also suggests that business executives are not expecting robust growth. In June, big companies announced 38,669 layoffs, compared with 14,086 in May, according to the Challenger Employment Report, which tracks corporate announcements. And for the first two weeks of July, ISI Group, an economic consulting firm, counted 23 layoff announcements, more than twice as many as a year earlier. | yes | 1 |
Stock Prices Rise On Auto Settlement: Holiday Retards Trading | NEW YORK, Sept. 20 (AP)ÛÓWall Street received the tonic that it needed todayÛÓ an agreement between General Motors and the United Auto Workers UnionÛÓand the stpek market pulled out of a decline and moved sharply higher.</br></br>' Volume was light, however, dwindling to 2.7 million shares from 3.26 million yesterday, the smallest since July 24 when 2.49 million shares wereÛ÷ traded. Trading was dampened by Yom Kippur.</br></br>Sentiment had the added support of overnight news that the nation's output of goods and services is running at a record level. The market, however, was sluggish in moving to the upside after two straight sessions of sharp decline. Early prices Showed a lower trend. A substantial gain by duPont helped boost the average slightly by noon but the pattern did not become decisively higher unitl news of a labor settlement came from Detroit. Prices advanced on balance thereafter but with little real enthusiasm.</br></br>Dupont was up 4% as it responded to news that the House had adopted a bill which would give duPont shareholders tax relief when the chemical firmÛªs vast hold-</br></br>The Dow Jones industrial average recovered 4.78 at 707.32. The AP 60-stock average rose 1.60 to 252.40 with industrials up 2.20, rails up 1.60 and utilities up .40. | no | 0 |
Prices Slump on Fast Trade in Final Hour: 4.48 Chopped From Dow | NEW YORK, Feb. 27 (AP)ÛÓWhat brokers called a ÛÏtiredÛ stock market moved unevenly most of today, then sank to a sharp loss in the final hour.</br></br>Although trading quickened while prices were sinking, volume was a light 3.7 million shares compared with 3.67 million yesterday.</br></br>The setback, the second sharp decline this week, was generally regarded as part of the corrective process to be logically expected following the big advance from late October to mid-February.</br></br>The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 4.48 to 670.80. The Associated Press average of 60 stocks fell 1.5 to 254.6 with industrials off 2.5, rails off .6, and utilities off .6.</br></br>Sunray DX Oil was the volume leader, rising 114 to 30'4 on 86,300 shares. Second was Gillette, up 14 at 33J4 on 56,200 shares. Third was American Motors, off 14 at 20% on 55,100 shares. | no | 0 |
D.C. Fiscal Future Glows; Rosy Outlook May Mean Tax Cuts | The District government has made such a dramatic financial turnaround that city officials are considering a tax cut and projecting hundreds of millions of dollars of budget surpluses for the next five years.</br></br>After years of deficits, the upbeat projections indicate that the city's recently announced $185.9 million surplus for 1997 was not a one-time achievement. Instead, it marked a turning point in the city's rebound from the depths of a financial crisis that may enable local leaders to cut taxes, officials said.</br></br>D.C. financial control board Chairman Andrew F. Brimmer said the city's finances have improved so substantially that both residents and businesses may get a tax cut later this year. Rather than amassing large surpluses and having money in the bank, Brimmer said, part of the surpluses could be used to fund a tax reduction that would make the city a more attractive place to live and work.</br></br>Brimmer said the details of a tax cut would have to be determined through "serious discussions" involving the D.C. Council and Mayor Marion Barry, who also has said he favors cutting taxes.</br></br>"The taxpayers in the District ought to look forward to a tax reduction," Brimmer said. "The capacity is there." | no | 0 |
Treasury Debt Offering a Record | The Treasury Department yesterday announced another record quarterly debt offering, but bond market analysts said the issuance of a "massive" amount of government securities this quarter was anticipated and will have little immediate impact on interest rates.</br></br>At a press conference to announce the quarterly refunding. Acting Assistant Secretary for Domestic Finance John Niehenke said the government probably would reach its legal limit on borrowing at the end of September.</br></br>The Treasury will ask Congress after its August recess to raise the debt ceiling of $1,823 trillion, Niehenke said. However, Treasury officials had not yet decided what the new limit should be because it depends on the status of budget negotiations, Niehenke said.</br></br>The Treasury will offer $21.75 billion of securities to refund $12.3 billion of publicly held debt maturing on Aug. 15 and to raise $9.4 billion of new cash.</br></br>The Treasury will offer three securities. The size of all three will surpass previous records, Niehenke said. | no | 0 |
Sunday, January 6,1980 | AS THE ECONOMY heads into a decline this year, one of those ÛÏtruismsÛ weÛªll be hearing with seductive regularity is that business needs a tax break in order to stimulate investment and jack up lagging American productivity.</br></br>ItÛªs even likely that Sen. Edward Kennedy, anxious about his ÛÏradicalÛ economic-policy image, will make an obligatory bow in this direction.</br></br>The trouble is that there is no hard evidence that more favorable tax treatment for business promotes significant increases in business investment, or that it is a good antirecessionary device.</br></br>As a matter of fact, there is plenty of evidenceÛÓ as gathered in a 1978 report by the General Accounting Office ÛÓ that much of the business spending attributed over the years to such devices as the investment tax credit would have taken place anyway.</br></br>But a recent barrage of propaganda from business groups promoting a better tax break has worked its way into the literature of government speech-making, congressional reports and so on. | no | 0 |
Deficit Prospect: A Steep Escalation | MR. NIXON'S last official estimate of the federal deficit for fiscal 1971 was $1.3 billion ÛÓa tiny figure of limited economic impact or political significance. But merely shift the decimal point one place to the right, and you will get a deficit figure of $13 billion. That is much closer to the real probability.</br></br>Nancy Teeters, an economist for the Brookings Institution, gets credit for this tongue-in-cheek budget ÛÏrevision.Û But a high Nixon administration official, looking at the tentative receipts and expenditure estimates now making the rounds of the inner circle, says: ÛÏIÛªd hate to tell you how close that $13 billion deficit looks. Give or take $1 billion, and itÛªs going to be right on the nose.Û</br></br>What flows from this realityÛÓwhich has yet to be confessed publicly by the administrationÛÓcould have serious implications for policy. For, although the Nixon administration knows that a substantial deficit is necessary because the economy is weak, itÛªs not good politicsÛÓespecially for RepublicansÛÓto be so mired in red ink. ThatÛªs why Nixon men stick to the outdated $1.3 billion figure.</br></br>The way it looks now, the deficit for fiscal 1971 will run somewhere between $10 and $15 billion, depending in part on how deep the present economic slump cuts into corporate profits and individual income. (Already, according to Mrs. Teeters, the Gross National Product in the first half of this year was running some $35 billion below the potential rate, compared with a modest plus in the first half of 1969).</br></br>Now, bad as such a figure would look in next JanuaryÛªs budget document (if there is a full accounting of it), a projection of that big a deficit for fiscal 1972 would be even worse. Two big Nixon deficits back to back ÛÓthat wouldnÛªt look nice | no | 0 |
Skilled-Labor Crunch Eases, Fed Finds --- Study Raises the Possibility Of Rise in Jobless Rate From 4.2% in January | WASHINGTON -- Chronic shortages of high-tech and other skilled workers are starting to ease in many parts of the country as layoffs rise and job-hopping abates, a Federal Reserve survey found.</br></br>The findings could mean unemployment, which edged up to 4.2% in January but remained near a 30-year low, could rise further. February's unemployment rate will be released tomorrow.</br></br>The Fed report, known as the "beige book," suggests demand has eased, mostly for the best-paid workers -- those in high-tech, Internet, manufacturing, and construction jobs -- while demand for entry-level, clerical and health workers has remained strong.</br></br>The Fed's policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee, uses the report on business conditions around the country to help set the direction for interest rates. The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by half a percentage point when it meets March 20, an expectation that appeared validated by the Fed report's finding that most regions reported "sluggish to modest economic growth" in February.</br></br>A month ago, a Fed survey found a substantial portion of banks tightening lending standards, a development that could exacerbate the current slowdown. And yesterday, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told bankers in a speech that, in their zeal to make up for overly lax lending, they should "not overcompensate and inhibit or cut off the flow of credit to borrowers with credible prospects." | no | 0 |
U.S. Wields Less Clout at Summit; Obama Sees Diminished Heft in Seoul Due to Slow Economy, Election Setback | Author: Jonathan Weisman ; Damian Paletta</br></br>SEOUL--President Barack Obama headed toward the close of the Group of 20 summit, weakened by an anemic economic recovery and an election drubbing that have left world leaders questioning U.S. authority.</br></br>In private meetings with Mr. Obama on Thursday, Chinese President Hu Jintao resisted his pressure on currency revaluation. Mr. Obama also failed to secure a free-trade agreement with South Korea by a deadline he set for Thursday, a blow to a president who has pledged to double U.S. exports over the next five years.</br></br>The summit of the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations is expected to conclude with a communiqu̩ that papers over differences on fiscal and monetary policy that had been exposed in the run-up to the gathering.</br></br>That will leave it to the G-20's finance ministers to come up with some kind of mechanism to measure progress toward more balanced trade and flexible currency exchanges. Although the communiqu̩ won't include numerical targets, a senior U.S. administration official acknowledged the world will have to come up with some in the future. "You have to have numbers. This is economics," he said. "And everybody recognizes that." | no | 0 |
On Unsettling News Stocks Turn Lower | settling economic news turne the stock market irregularly lower today following last weekÛªs broad advance in the heaviest weekly turnover on record.</br></br>Lucien Hooper, analyst for W. E. Hutton & Co., said the market was ÛÏtiredÛ after last weekÛªs performance and he believes it was headed for further downward corrective action.</br></br>William Nelson, director of Equity Research for MoodyÛªs Investors Service, said the easier credit situation has been helpful to the market, but international news is making some investors wary.</br></br>el]| Polaroid, American iRe-sSSrch, LoewÛªs Theatres, Johnson & Johnson, Walt Disney, and Avon Products.</br></br>On the other hand, Kerr-McGee and Northwest Steel & Wire rose 5 apiece. Louisville & Nashville gained 3 in the rails, and Northwest Industries added Also pointing higher were Walter Kidde up 2, and Standard Oil of Ohio, Leasco Data, University Computing, [Burlington Northern, Mc-[ Donnell-Douglas, IBM, and I General Electric up 1 or bet-| ter. | yes | 1 |
THIS WEEK | THIS WEEK</br></br>March on Washington: President Barack Obama, as well as former presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, will participate in a ceremony Wednesday in observance of the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington.</br></br>Economic Indicators: Second-quarter gross domestic product numbers come out Thursday; consumer spending for July is released Friday.</br></br>Earnings Roundup: Movado, Tiffany, TiVo, Wet Seal, 1-800-Flowers.com, Campbell Soup and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts report.</br></br>LAST WEEK | no | 0 |
U.S. Dollar Falls Against Most Currencies; Decline Is Softened as Bond Rally Stalls | The U.S. dollar declined against most major foreign currencies yesterday, although the drop was softened when bond prices failed to advance Tuesday's rally.</br></br>The dollar began weakening in Europe as interest rates fell there for dollar deposits. The decline continued in New York trading, which was thin, although the dollar recovered slightly when bond prices began falling. Lower bond prices translate into higher long-term interest yields, which make dollar denominated investments more attractive. The bond market later closed little-changed from Tuesday.</br></br>"This is the first time in a while that we've gone back to trading off interest rates, and my feeling is it will continue between now and the (U.S.) election," said Daniel Holland, an assistant vice president at Discount Corp., New York.</br></br>In late New York trading, the dollar fell to 3.0210 West German marks from 3.0318 marks on Tuesday. The British pound rose to $1.2223 from $1.2155.</br></br>In early Tokyo trading Thursday, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese currency, to 245.45 yen from 245.13 yen late yesterday in New York. | yes | 1 |
Treasurys Stage Modest Relief Rally; Session's Relative Calm Could Be Seen as a Pause Following Sharp Correction | Dow Jones Newswires</br></br>NEW YORK -- Most Treasurys ended higher on a modest relief rally after the conclusion of two days of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.</br></br>But analysts viewed yesterday's relative calm as largely a pause after a sharp correction from oversold levels.</br></br>Last month, yields, which move inversely to prices, fell to historic lows after the Fed in early May cautioned about the risks of deflation. The market rallied strongly through mid-June, in part on speculation the Fed might use unconventional methods, such as buying longer-dated Treasurys, to ease monetary policy if the need arose.</br></br>But since late June, economists said, Fed officials seem to have tried to respond to what appeared to be a bubble-like appreciation in Treasurys. David Greenlaw, an economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, pointed to a statement by the Fed after a policy meeting in late June. "We've certainly seen the lows in yield" of this cycle, Mr. Greenlaw said, adding that the selloff in July has "recorrected" the Treasurys market back to where it was before deflation talk took hold. | yes | 1 |
Home Mortgage Rates Climb to 10.5 Percent: Economists Predict Continued Increases | Interest rates on fixed-rate home mortgages climbed to an average of 10.5 percent in December, their highest level since mid-August.</br></br>The December rates reflected an increase of about three-quarters of a percentage point since Nov. 2, when the area average was 9.75 percent, according to the Peeke Report, which surveys 110 Washington area lenders. Meanwhile, interest on adjustable-rate mortgages climbed to 8.13 percent from 7.75 percent.</br></br>In an unusual concurrence of opinion, economists for a variety of financial and real estate industry groups this week predicted that interest rates will continue to rise through the first half of 1989.</br></br>Generally, economists are predicting that rates on conventional 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages will peak between 11 percent and 12 percent before drifting downward.</br></br>The recent rate increases in the Washington area paralleled a 9.3 percent increase in conventional 30-year mortgage rates nationwide between Nov. 1 and Dec. 27, according to figures compiled by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. | yes | 1 |
Funds See Shelter in Home Builders --- Alluring Sector May Crack In the Wake of Steep Gains And Its Recent Admirers | Mutual-fund managers are seeking shelter from a rainy market in home-building stocks these days. But the sector's foundation might be cracking under the weight of steep gains and all its newfound fans.</br></br>The number of mutual funds owning small and midsize home-building stocks like Lennar Corp. and Centex Corp. has risen sharply, doubling in some cases, since the start of last year. And it's easy to see why: Consumers taking advantage of low interest rates to buy, refinance and remodel their homes have boosted these companies' fortunes, pushing up the average price of the sector's small-cap and midcap stocks by 171% over the past two years through Friday's close, according to Baseline/Thomson Financial.</br></br>Faced with slumping growth-stock categories such as technology, telecommunications and pharmaceuticals and with 40% of U.S. stock funds in the red over the past three years, some battered fund managers also have piled into shares of larger home builders and related outfits such as home-improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. and mortgage titan Freddie Mac.</br></br>Some see the home builders as a rare haven for cheap valuations and better-than-average growth in lean times. But others worry the small and midsize stocks have risen too high, too fast and that quick-trading managers of mutual funds and hedge funds who have hopped on the bandwagon could be just as quick to jump off. Their heavy selling can cause the prices of these smallish stocks to sink.</br></br>"I've met with about 40 hedge-fund managers [last] week and if it's going up they're buyers, but they'll be just as quick to leave too," says Jeffrey Saut, chief equity strategist at Raymond James. "They do look attractive but this is usually when you want to sell them. You buy pessimism and sell optimism." (Hedge funds are private partnerships for large investors and seek quick profits by putting huge sums in global currency, stock and bond markets.) | no | 0 |
Stanley Works to Post Profit Increase of 7% For the Third Quarter | NEW BRITAIN, Conn. -- Stanley Works expects to report that third-quarter net income rose about 7% on a sales gain of 1%, reflecting five years of cost cuts and controls, Donald Davis, chairman and chief executive officer, said.</br></br>The maker of hardware, tools and industrial products said profit increased to about $19.4 million, or 70 cents a share, compared with year-earlier earnings of $18.1 million, or 65 cents a share. Sales rose to more than $297 million from $294.6 million.</br></br>Stanley Works also expects "modest improvement" in fourth-quarter profit and record results for all of 1985, Mr. Davis said.</br></br>The company plans to increase 1986 capital spending about 20% from this year to $58 million or $59 million. It also is seeking acquisitions, he said.</br></br>The third-quarter profit increase stems "simply from improved margins, which result from all the efforts to hold or reduce expenses over the last several years," Mr. Davis said in an interview. The efforts included plant consolidation and inventory reductions. From 1981 through 1984, productivity -- output in units per employee -- improved 22%, Mr. Davis said. | no | 0 |
Trade Gap Hits Yet Another Record; Despite a Weaker Dollar, Feb. Imports Exceed Exports by $61 Billion | The U.S. trade deficit rose to an all-time high of $61 billion in February, the Commerce Department reported yesterday, dealing a fresh blow to hopes that the gap will start to shrink soon in response to the decline in the dollar.</br></br>Exports stayed relatively flat, totaling $100.5 billion in February, just 0.1 percent, or $100 million, above the previous month's level. At the same time, the nation's pattern of importing more and more goods continued unchecked, as foreign products purchased by Americans rose 1.6 percent, or $2.6 billion, to $161.5 billion, led by oil, autos and consumer goods.</br></br>The politically sensitive U.S. deficit with China narrowed in February to $13.9 billion from January's $15.3 billion level. But critics of China pointed out that the combined figure for those two months was 47 percent above the same period last year and said the report will fuel growing sentiment in Congress for a tougher policy on Beijing's trade practices.</br></br>The overall gap was a record -- by itself nothing new, because the monthly trade deficit has smashed through previous highs eight times since the start of last year. But yesterday's report deepened concern that the flow of goods across U.S. borders does not seem to be responding to the dollar's fall, even though that decline has continued for three years.</br></br>A cheaper dollar is supposed to spur sales of U.S. exports by making American goods more attractive to foreign purchasers, and reduce Americans' appetite for foreign products by making them more expensive. Together with some private economists, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted late last year that the move in the currency would start to exert an effect on trade flows and shrink the gap in months to come. So far, however, signs of such a development have been scant. | yes | 1 |
Stocks Fall on Disappointing Earnings, Confidence Report | STOCKS SLIPPED on a disappointing consumer-confidence report and mixed news from component companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</br></br>The Dow fell 91.34 points, or 0.9%, to 10151.13, as DuPont was hurt by disappointing earnings and Hewlett-Packard's stock was pushed down by industrywide worries about the demand for printers. And American International Group was pummeled by mounting legal concerns, including heightened interest by New York state regulators regarding the insurer's booking of premiums on workers' compensation coverage.</br></br>Those developments overshadowed a 1.1% rise in International Business Machines shares, to $75.43, after the computer maker announced a $5 billion share buyback and a dividend increase.</br></br>Other stock indictors also weakened. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.2%, or 23.34 points, to 1927.44. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index ended at 1151.74, off 0.9%, or 10.36 points.</br></br>The Conference Board's consumer-confidence index fell to 97.7 this month, worse than the consensus expectation of 98.0 in a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and the worst in five months. | yes | 1 |
Luxury Stores Brace for Slowdown | The luxury goods industry is bracing for fallout from the global financial crisis.</br></br>Some companies, including jewelers' Tiffany & Co. and Bulgari SpA, are considering a brake on future store openings to reduce costs ahead of a likely sluggish holiday season. French fashion house Dior SA may close some boutiques in smaller U.S. cities.</br></br>Until recently, the world of luxury perfumes, leather goods, jewelry and designer clothing seemed impervious to the retail slowdown affecting apparel and home furnishings. Their resilience was due largely to growing business in emerging markets, such as China and Russia, which offset a slowdown in the U.S., Europe and Japan.</br></br>Now, the Chinese and Russian stock markets are faltering, putting pressure on their wealthy consumers and tugging on the luxury-goods sector's safety net.</br></br>"I'm not sure [emerging markets] are able to offset the weakness in other markets," Bulgari Chief Executive Francesco Trapani said in an interview. "Everyone is going to be affected." He estimated only 10% of new Bulgari store projects now would be approved, compared with about 50% earlier. | no | 0 |
Grade Requirements Are Tightened For U. of Virginia Dean's List | The University of Virginia, prompted by the nationwide phenomena of grade inflation, lias tightened the requirement for membership on its DeanÛªs List of Distinguished Students.</br></br>The faculty of the universityÛªs College of Arts and Sciences voted at a regular meeting last week to raise the grade point average for studentsÛª qualifying for the deanÛªs list from 3.0 to 3.4 out of a possible 4,0. The change becomes effective for the fall semester next year.</br></br>Due to easier grading by professors in Charlottesville, as at other universities around the country, more and more students have qualified for the deanÛªs list in recent years.</br></br>Last spring, 55 per cent of the 0,827 undergraduate students in the College of Arts and Sciences qualified for the list. Last January, 65.3 per cent of the 7,029 students in the college were named to the list ÛÏThe list had become fairly meaningless as It was constituted,Û said Dr. Irby B. Cauthen Jr., dean of the College of Arts and Sciences.</br></br>Under the tightened deanÛª* list standards, Cauthen estimated only about 20 per cent to 25 per cent of the students in the college would qualify. | no | 0 |
Abreast of the market: Industrials climb 16.99 on gains in economically sensitive issues | NEW YORK -- Economically sensitive stocks and oil-related issues lifted the market after more reassuring news on inflation.</br></br>Stocks followed bonds back and forth early in the day but managed to remain higher in the afternoon even as the debt market faded.</br></br>The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 16.99, or 0.44%, to 3865.14 -- its highest close since Feb. 23. The Treasury's 30-year bond lost 3/8 point, pushing up its yield to 6.82%.</br></br>But analysts played down the importance of the divergence and attributed a large part of the stock market optimism to hopes that interest rates have begun to stabilize after the big increases last month and early in March.</br></br>An economic reading from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helped reassure that belief. It included indications that product prices have moderated in the Philadelphia region. | no | 0 |
Filling Up on Food-Price Inflation | Beware inflated expectations. Investors are beginning to bet that a return of food-price inflation will boost grocery-store profits. Retailers can sometimes keep their percentage markups constant when input costs rise.</br></br>The cost of food for home consumption does indeed look set for a rebound. After falling 2.4% last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, retailers are beginning to predict that it will resume its upward march. This week, Wal-Mart Stores said it expects food deflation to abate this year and Winn-Dixie forecast outright inflation in the second quarter. Friday's consumer-price index data for January could add to the evidence.</br></br>This year could be more complicated than usual. First, the initial round of food inflation is likely to occur in perishables such as milk, whose price has already rebounded in recent months. Just as some grocers saw perishables volumes rise last year when prices fell, the reverse could be true if prices rise.</br></br>Second, packaged-food prices could keep falling for some time. Even if raw ingredient costs begin to rise, many manufacturers have locked in lower raw-material prices using hedges. Meredith Adler of Barclays Capital estimates packaged food accounts for 40% of the average grocer's revenue.</br></br>Finally, moves by the likes of Costco and Wal-Mart to sell more private-label products could damp food-price inflation. | yes | 1 |
Raising a Glass To Glasnost; Senate Fetes Soviet Delegation | Last night a delegation from the Supreme Soviet discovered the downside of the two-party system: too many speeches and not enough good lines to go around.</br></br>In honor of the newly elected Soviet officials, the U.S. Senate threw a dinner at the National Gallery of Art to say great things about glasnost.</br></br>"On one or two occasions, Chairman Primakov has pointed out one of the advantages of a one-party system," said Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell (D-Maine). "You only have to listen to half as many speeches."</br></br>Not last night. Co-host Minority Leader Robert Dole (R-Kan.) waxed on "of the people, by the people and for the people." He sounded great, but he beat Yevgeniy Primakov, the Russian equivalent of speaker of the House, to the punch.</br></br>"I address you simply as my dear colleagues and friends," he said. He had planned, he told the crowd, to talk about "the people ... but Senator Dole snatched that subject away from me." "There's an interesting mix of classical and modern architecture," said Alexander Kraiko. He said he was very impressed with the Capitol, especially the interior of the building. But one thing surprised him. | no | 0 |
Bush Pins the Blame For '92 Election Loss On Alan Greenspan | WASHINGTON -- Former President Bush said in a television interview that he blames Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan for his 1992 defeat.</br></br>"I think that if the interest rates had been lowered more dramatically that I would have been re-elected president because the [economic] recovery that we were in would have been more visible," Mr. Bush told interviewer David Frost. "I reappointed him, and he disappointed me."</br></br>Mr. Bush's economic advisers, particularly Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, were critical of the Greenspan Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates more rapidly during the recession of 1990-91 and the sluggish recovery that followed.</br></br>Mr. Greenspan, a Republican, was appointed by President Reagan in 1987, and nominated for another term in July 1991 by Mr. Bush, partly because he couldn't find an acceptable alternative. He was reappointed by President Clinton to a term that ends in 2000.</br></br>A spokesman for Mr. Greenspan declined to comment. | no | 0 |
Social Security Benefits to Rise 5.8% | As seniors struggle with the soaring costs of everyday expenses and hefty hits to their retirement saving accounts, the Social Security Administration yesterday announced a 5.8 percent increase in income benefits, marking the largest cost-of-living adjustment since 1982.</br></br>The increase, which affects 55 million Americans, amounts to an extra $63 a month for the average recipient. Some retiree advocates and senior citizens, while welcoming the bump, worried it wasn't enough given even larger increases in other costs, such as health care.</br></br>"This will be very welcomed, but 6 percent is not much compared to everything else," said Elaine Destefano, a 72-year-old retiree volunteering yesterday at the Damascus Senior Center. She noted that certain Medicare premiums would rise more than 20 percent. "This is what happens: They gave us a raise, then they increase Medicare, and then you have nothing."</br></br>Shannon G. Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, said, "It may take the edge off, but it's not going to lift the burden."</br></br>Retirees and advocacy groups such as Benton's organization and AARP have been pushing for higher cost-of-living increases for years. Last year's bump of 2.3 percent came on the heels of low inflation and was the smallest since 2004. | no | 0 |
Virginia Is for Seniors - and How;The State, Uncle Sam and Now the GOP Just Can't Cut Their Taxes Enough | NOW VIRGINIA can truly call itself the "Old Dominion." Famous for its legions of retired federal and military pensioners, Virginia looks to be America's next Sun City. Thanks to a bill signed last summer by Gov. George Allen, his state can lay claim to the nation's most senior-friendly tax policy.</br></br>What's happening in Virginia should remind victorious Republicans that both political parties are responsible for the pandering to seniors that contributes mightily to America's fiscal crisis. It should also remind the Kerrey-Danforth "Commission on Entitlements and Tax Reform" to pay due attention to the word "tax" as they prepare their report. In recent decades, all levels of government have given tax advantages to well-off seniors while ignoring the extra burden this age bias imposes on younger generations.</br></br>Although many states, as well as the federal government, show favoritism to older people in their tax laws, Virginia's new law pushes this bias to a new extreme. The law offers no new benefits to seniors with incomes below the poverty line but gives handsome rewards to middle- and upper-income retirees. The bottom line is this: Every senior, no matter how rich, gets an extra $12,000 annual deduction on the state income tax form that young taxpayers don't - plus a total exclusion on social security income.</br></br>This means that, starting in 1996, a retired 65-year-old couple on maximum social security (projected at $13,764 per retiree) will pay no state income tax on their first $59,728 of income - regardless of how the rest of their income is derived. A 62-year-old couple will pay nothing on the first $40,622 of income. But a 30-year-old couple with one child will pay tax on income above $7,400.</br></br>To this new break, Fairfax County's seniors can also add the "empty-nester" total property tax forgiveness for middle-income seniors with incomes up to $40,000 and assets (excluding residence) of up to $150,000. Now add federal income and FICA taxes to the calculations, and look what happens in the following cases: | no | 0 |
Euro Turns Up Against Dollar --- Trading Ranges Are Narrow; Swiss Bank Seen in Market Again | The euro regained some of its day-earlier losses against the dollar with a broad rebound in risk appetite but stayed within recent ranges.</br></br>Advancing U.S. stocks and crude-oil futures encouraged traders to buy riskier currencies and sell the safe-haven dollar. Crude-oil futures rallied above $70 a barrel for the first time in three days.</br></br>Also, many analysts said the dollar's relief rally against the euro on Wednesday, on what was perceived as a less-dovish Federal Open Market Committee policy statement, was misguided, as policy was essentially unchanged. However, the euro didn't advance far past the $1.40 level on Thursday.</br></br>A third suspected intervention in two days by the Swiss National Bank to weaken the franc may have weighed on the euro, some analysts said.</br></br>Market uncertainty remains high amid mixed economic data. Thursday's slate included better-than-anticipated revisions to the U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product but also a jump in jobless claims last week. | no | 0 |
Tallying the Toll on the Economy From 9/11 | Osama bin Laden vowed to bleed America "to the point of bankruptcy, Allah willing." He failed. The Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks were enormously costly to the U.S., though not in the ways expected initially.</br></br>Sept. 11 did not, as feared, trigger a wrenching recession; the bursting of the housing bubble was worse. And despite lines at airport security, Sept. 11 did not dent the efficiency of the U.S. economy; productivity kept growing.</br></br>But Sept. 11 did cost a lot in other ways. The attacks led to Afghanistan and Iraq, wars that already have cost nearly twice what Vietnam did, adjusted for inflation.</br></br>Putting a price tag on the human toll from 9/11 is impossible. Nearly 3,000 were killed in the attacks. More than 6,200 U.S. troops have been killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Measuring the impact of 9/11 on the American psyche and its sense of security and freedom is difficult.</br></br>But one can, with the hindsight of a decade, begin to tally the quantifiable economic costs. | yes | 1 |
DJIA Soars 35.58 Points, Bonds Gain --- Economic Data Spur Renewed Speculation Fed Will Trim Rates | Investors placed some big bets on another cut in short-term interest rates, lifting stock prices sharply. Bond prices rose, too, while the dollar was mixed.</br></br>The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 35.58 to 3354.10 in active trading. Standard & Poor's 500-stock index climbed 4.74 to 412.88 and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.39 to 568.99.</br></br>The stock market rally took off on the heels of a report from the nation's purchasing managers that showed a slowing in the rate of industrial activity in June. The decline was enough to fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve, which wound up a policy-making meeting yesterday, will cut short-term interest rates again soon.</br></br>Traders expect further impetus for the Fed to stimulate the economy to show up in today's Labor Department report on employment in June. The consensus forecast calls for non-farm payrolls to have risen a modest 83,000 in June. Such a small gain may alone be enough to force the Fed's hand; anything less will increase pressure on the central bank for a rate cut.</br></br>But James Solloway, director of research at Argus Research, said investors may be looking at the wrong data. He said his own reading of reports from Federal Reserve regional banks shows that the Fed is apparently satisfied with the rate of money growth and expects the economy to pick up steam later without any further assistance from the central bank. | no | 0 |
Business Lag Blamed For '62 Budget Deficit: Surpluses Are Rare | The Government reported yesterday that its budget deficit in the fiscal year just ended was $6.3 billion. This was about $700 million, or 10 per cent less than the AdministrationÛªs advance estimate.</br></br>For the 1962 fiscal year that ended June 30, spending totaled $87.7 billion, a sharp drop of $1.4 billion from President Kennedy's estimate of last January. Major reductions occurred in farm, welfare and health, housing, foreign aid and veterans housing programs.</br></br>Tax revenues totaled $81.4 billion, for the period, about $700 million below the January estimate. An excessively high preliminary estimate of 1961 corporate profits was blamed for the fact revenues were less than anticipated.</br></br>A report on how the Government fared financially in fiscal year 1962 was issued by Budget Director David E. Bell and Treasury Secretary Douglas Dillon.</br></br>The deficit was the 10th in 16 fiscal years since World War II. The six budget surpluses in the postwar period came in the administrations of former Presidents Harry | no | 0 |
Industrials Post a Record Drop; Trade Data, Interest Rates Cited | Disappointing news on the U.S. trade deficit and a sharp rise in interest rates dealt the stock market a crushing blow, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its biggest one-day point loss ever.</br></br>The industrial average plummeted 95.46 to 2412.70, a 3.8% fall. Yesterday's drop surpassed the 91.55-point tumble it took Oct. 6. The decline surprised many market professionals because it appeared that the recent slide for stocks might be leveling off; the average had moved up more than 36 points Tuesday.</br></br>Some traders found minor consolation in the fact that yesterday's fall wasn't anywhere near the record 12.82% drop of Oct. 28, 1929, when the industrial average lost 38.33 points to close at 260.64.</br></br>"Everyone is shellshocked, including ourselves," said Jack Baker, head of capital commitment at Shearson Lehman Brothers in New York. "The market was really surprised that the trade numbers didn't show that much of an improvement."</br></br>Before the market opened yesterday, the Commerce Department reported that the August merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $15.68 billion from $16.47 billion in July. Economists surveyed by the Dow Jones Capital Markets Report were looking for an average gap of about $15 billion; some market participants were expecting a gap as small as $13.5 billion. Rates in the bond market shot up on the news. | no | 0 |
Long Recovery For the Dollar Called Doubtful --- Currency Stages Big Rally On U.S. Trade Report, But Skepticism Remains | Concern about a steep fall of the dollar to new lows was relieved by the surprisingly big improvement in U.S. trade reported Friday. A sustained recovery of the dollar still remains doubtful, however, in the view of currency traders and economists.</br></br>The drop in the November trade deficit to $13.22 billion from the record $17.63 billion the previous month came as a shocker to the foreign exchange market. Economists' forecasts placed the deficit around $15 billion and market rumors had the gap running as high as $20 billion. Wednesday's wave of coordinated central bank purchases of the dollar and an announcement of a U.S.-Japanese pact aimed at aiding further intervention led some market participants to conclude that even Washington and Tokyo were expecting a bad number.</br></br>So when the figure was reported Friday, the dollar quickly soared 3.9% to 131 Japanese yen, where it stood in late New York dealings, up from 126.05 Thursday. The dollar climbed 3.7% to 1.6885 West German marks from 1.6290. The dollar's late Friday quotes represented its highs for the day.</br></br>The dollar opened in Tokyo early Monday at 131.50 yen, up from Thursday's close of 126.95 yen. The Tokyo market was closed Friday, a national holiday.</br></br>Despite the dollar's spectacular performance, traders and economists say the show will be a limited engagement. They expect the dollar's rally to level into a relatively narrow trading range with the chance of a collapse greater than that for another takeoff. | no | 0 |
World Wire | THE SWEDISH CRISIS</br></br>Swedish Prime Minister Ingvar Carlsson called the government to an extraordinary meeting late yesterday to discuss the serious situation in the labor market and austerity measures for the overheating economy, Swedish news reports said.</br></br>On the labor front, banks have been closed since Jan. 29, after over 60,000 bank employees were locked out. Strikes over pay are also in the offing for over 100,000 municipal workers, including traffic wardens, social workers, telephone operators and day-care-center workers.</br></br>As for the economy, Swedish Finance Minister Kjell-Olof Feldt is expected to outline an austerity program today. Sweden's high inflation rate, projected to reach 8.6% in 1990, combined with weak economic growth, has resulted in increasingly loud calls from opposition parties for structural measures to make the economy more competitive.</br></br>Analysts said the economic problems had divided the Social Democratic government. One faction, led by Mr. Feldt, advocates saving the economy, even if it requires tough measures. The other faction, led by Foreign Minister Sten Andersson, says it's more important to save the country's welfare system. | no | 0 |
Dow Jones Up 7.37 As Market Rallies In Hope of Phase IV: Dow Gains 7.37 Poinls; Volume High | NEW YORK, July 18 (AP)ÛÓThe stock market rallied this afternoon in a broad advance, with brokers saying that investors took heart in the after -close announcement of Phase IV guidelines.</br></br>The Dow Jones average of 30 industrials finished the day ahead 7.37 at 905.40. On a day which began with a carry-over of TuesdayÛªs fading rally, the Dow opened lower only to drift upwards over 8 and then dip to a close.</br></br>The Amex price change index rose .12 to 22.98, with advances topping declines by 554 to 278 among 1,121 issues traded. Volume was 2.72 million shares.</br></br>ÛÏThe market view is that the stronger Phase IV is and the more viable it looks as an effort to control inflation, then the more likely it will be to relieve fear in the market of a monetary crunch similar to 1969-70,Û said Monte Gordon of Dreyfus Corp. Gordon said further controls would relieve the Federal Reserve as the ÛÏonly bastionÛ against inflation.</br></br>Primary news in the market today was a lower dollar again in Europe, the spending prime-rate increase, and, of course, anticipation of Phase IV. Treasury Secretary George P. Shultz announced the latest economic game-plan at 4:30 p.m. after the marketÛªs close. | no | 0 |
Dollar Rallies On Rate Cuts, Then Slips Back --- Sell-Off, After Reductions In Fees by Europeans, Reinforces Bearish View | Interest-rate cuts in Europe sparked a brief dollar rally yesterday, but a subsequent wave of sell orders left the U.S. currency down slightly for the day.</br></br>The dollar's inability to hold onto its gains reinforced the market's bearish sentiment on the U.S. currency, traders said. "Everybody took advantage of the stronger dollar to sell," Keiichi Udagawa, chief trader at Bank of Tokyo Ltd.'s New York agency, said.</br></br>Traders attributed the dollar sell-off to disappointment with the deficit-reduction plan reached by White House and congressional negotiators Friday and the continuing large U.S. trade deficits.</br></br>"The disappointment in the budget package and its lukewarm reception is hanging over the dollar and preventing it from moving up dramatically," Ronald H. Holzer, vice president and chief dealer at Harris Trust & Savings Bank, Chicago, said.</br></br>The negotiators' plan to cut the budget deficit in the current fiscal year by $30 billion still requires final approval by Congress. | no | 0 |
Tuesday's markets: Blue chips fall 79.01, leaving traders uneasy | In one of the stock market's more abrupt declines in recent months, a late-day, 30-minute selling frenzy sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a loss of 79.01 points, or 1.21%.</br></br>The decline, to a finish of 6442.69, was the seventh-biggest for the Dow industrials this year -- and the sharpest since July 15, when the index dropped 161.05.</br></br>Blue-chip stocks bore the brunt of the selling, but by the time the dust settled, the broader Standard & Poor's 500-stock index had fallen 8.28 points, or 1.09%.</br></br>While the percentage move alone wasn't alarming by historic proportions, the sudden shift in the market's direction and sentiment after weeks of bullishness and continued records left uneasy traders bracing for today. They noted that futures contracts on the S&P 500 index continued to fall in after-hours electronic trading.</br></br>"This is certainly setting up as the first real correction we've seen since" the market's recovery from its summer doldrums, said Jon Olesky, managing director and head of block trading at Morgan Stanley. He further noted that "this does not have the feel of a one-day event." | yes | 1 |
Gannett Predicts Modest Increase: Gannett Newspapers Predict Ad Growth | Despite forecasts of economic recession next year, the Gannett Co. expects advertising business to grow modestly for its group of newspapers around the countryÛÓnumbering 78, the largest chain owned by any one publisher.</br></br>In addition, Gannett President Allen Neuharth is telling publishers of his companyÛªs newspapers here this week that despite a commitment to follow President CarterÛªs wage and price guidelines, spending for news operations in 1979 will be boosted by 13 percent. .</br></br>ÛÏWeÛªre going to put more money into the product (newspaper content) even if we have to scratch harder on the revenue side,Û Neuharth said in an interview yesterday.</br></br>-' Neuharth matfe his remarks during a break at a three-day meeting for all Gannett publishers and other top corporate officialsÛÓabout 135 of themÛÓ that is being held at the Capital Hilton hotel.</br></br>Ironically, the Gannett meeting will continue into ThursdayÛÓthe same day the Federal Trade Commission begins a controversial symposium on concentration of media ownership, in which | yes | 1 |
Fears of Stagflation Return As Price Increases Gain Pace; Fed Cuts Outlook For Economic Growth Amid Credit Crunch | The U.S. faces an unwelcome combination of looming recession and persistent inflation that is reviving angst about stagflation, a condition not seen since the 1970s.</br></br>Inflation is rising. Yesterday the Labor Department said consumer prices in the U.S. jumped 0.4% in January and are up 4.3% over the past 12 months, near a 16-year high. Even stripping out sharply rising food and energy costs, prices rose 0.3% in January, driven by education, medical care, clothing and hotels. They are up by 2.5% from the previous year, a 10-month high.</br></br>The same day brought a reminder of possible recession. The Federal Reserve disclosed that its policy makers lowered their forecast for economic growth this year to between 1.3% and 2%, half a percentage point below the level of their previous forecast, in October. They blamed a further slowdown on the slump in housing prices, tighter lending standards and higher oil prices. They warned the economy's performance could fall short of even that lowered outlook.</br></br>Stocks fell on the Labor Department's morning inflation report. But shares rallied after the afternoon release of the minutes of the Jan. 29-30 meeting of Fed policy makers and their latest forecast for the economy. That's because investors took the Fed's darker outlook on growth to mean that it intended to cut its short-term interest rate next month at its next scheduled meeting.</br></br>A simultaneous rise in unemployment and inflation poses a dilemma for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. When the Fed wants to fight unemployment, it lowers interest rates. When it wants to damp inflation, it raises them. It's impossible to do both at the same time. | yes | 1 |
Fed Officials Tell Markets It Isn't Tightening Broadly | Federal Reserve officials stepped up efforts to assure markets that a Thursday increase in the discount rate, an interest rate it charges on emergency loans to banks, wasn't a signal that the central bank was trying to tighten credit more broadly.</br></br>Stock-futures and credit markets initially reeled late Thursday when the Fed announced it was boosting the rate to 0.75% from 0.50% Thursday. But the stock market edged up Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 9.45 points to 10402.35, and prices for 10-year Treasury notes climbing, while their yields fell to 3.78%.</br></br>"We made a very small technical change," Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Friday during a question-and-answer session after a speech in San Juan, Puerto Rico. "The action yesterday [Thursday] was really an action about the improvement in banks." These institutions no longer need the emergency source of cheap funding as they did during the depths of the financial crisis, he said.</br></br>The Fed described the Thursday move as a step toward "further normalization" in its emergency-lending programs initiated during the worst of the financial crisis. It follows the lapsing of unusual lending programs put in place during the crisis, such as one offering short-term loans to blue-chip companies.</br></br>Officials chose to announce the discount-rate increase between scheduled meetings of its policy committee in part to underscore the clear separation between this move and the move--still in the future--to lift more economically significant rates, according to Fed insiders. | no | 0 |
Mexico's Markets Wait, Watch and Worry | Here in the United States, the down-to-the-wire debate over the North American Free Trade Agreement follows the usual political game rules. One side gets a favorable headline one day, the other side the next. Players keep their cool until the last vote is counted.</br></br>But on one of Mexico City's most glittering boulevards, in the Mexican stock market's glass domed building called La Bolsa (The Purse), the ups and downs of this American pastime are driving people crazy.</br></br>"It's been a roller coaster, absolute madness," said Daniel Goldstein, director of equity research for the Mexican bank Grupo Financiero Serfin.</br></br>One day Ross Perot tells a rally of his citizens organization that the treaty is comatose and the Mexican market, full of NAFTA lovers, drops 20 points as measured by the IPC index, the main Mexican stock market barometer. Another day President Clinton coaxes another member of Congress into the NAFTA camp and the Mexican traders at La Bolsa celebrate a 20-point jump.</br></br>Last Wednesday the index soared 81.49 points on a brief upsurge of optimism brought on by nothing more than Vice President Gore's television debate victory over Perot. | no | 0 |
Jobless Rate Hits 15-Year Low of 3.5%: Unemployment Hits a 15-Year Low | The NationÛªs total employment hit a record January high of 73.3 million last month and the unemployment rate dropped to a 15-ycar low of 3.5 per cent, the Labor Department said yesterday.</br></br>The number of jobs increased in manufacturing, trade and various service industries on a seasonally adjusted basis, said the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</br></br>The Bureau adjusts the.employment figures on the basis of usually expected seasonal trends, and the unexpectedly large number of women dropping out of the labor forceÛÓ and, therefore, no longer considered as job seekersÛÓaccounted for most of the dip in the jobless rate.</br></br>ÛÏIt was apparently because of a decline in retail trade after Christmas," said Arthur M. Ross, Commissioner of the Bureau. He referred to the withdrawal of some 880,000 women from the work force.</br></br>counted for about half of the[rose by 35,000, but would have the last year, average weekly costs showed that the earnings 1.7 million deline in the laborj been greater except for a earnings were up $3.70. gain was more than wiped out | no | 0 |
Food, Energy Increases Slowed: Sharp Rise in Prices Continued During October | Inflation continued to rage unchecked last month as the government's consumer price index leaped another one percent despite a substantial slowdown in food and energy price increases, the Labor Department reported yesterday.</br></br>Consumers in the Washington area received a partial respite as grocery prices here actually declined 0.4 percent as a result of a local price war between A&PÛªs new discount stores and Giant's price-cutting campaign.</br></br>However, prices nationally continued to rise sharply in a broad range of categories, further eroding the purchasing power of the average worker. Housing costs soared 1.5 percent, following a 1.2 percent jump in September.</br></br>Chase Manhattan Bank, the nationÛªs third largest, slashed its prime interest rate by half a percentage point to 15Vi percentÛÓa quarter percentage point more than other banks cut on Monday.</br></br>Although Chase's action bolstered the notion that the turnaround in interest rates was genuine. Chase itself warned against expecting any further cuts soon, and many other banks hesitated to cut their prime rates at all. | no | 0 |
Letters to the Editor: Fuel Grade Ethanol: Let's Clear the Air | I would like to thank Messrs. Culver, Scott and Hawn (Letters to the Editor, Nov. 10) for the opportunity to correct several of their common misunderstandings about fuel grade ethanol.</br></br>Dave Culver, in his concern over the projected production cost of ethanol, makes no mention of the true costs of imported oil. When externalities such as environmental and health costs, the loss of domestic jobs and basic industries, the trade deficit, commitments of military resources to ensure the free flow of oil from the Middle East and threats to our energy and national security are included, the true cost of imports even now exceeds $100/bbl, according to the General Accounting Office.</br></br>Mr. Culver is off by a factor of almost 10 in his claim that "Vehicles that consume a 10% mixture of `gasohol' typically see a 20% loss in fuel mileage." Between 2% and 4% is correct. He is a bit closer in his description of E-85 vehicles. At this time, they experience about a 20% reduction in range compared to gasoline. That will improve with higher compression ratio engines allowed by ethanol's 113 octane. He is just flat wrong about fires and fuel system incompatibility with ethanol.</br></br>John W. Scott is correct in warning that the production of ethanol and other biofuels from feed grains and oilseeds, from agriculture and forestry residues, fast growing trees and grasses and well as from urban biomass heading for the dump, must ensure environmental integrity from the dirt to the tailpipe. The sloshing down the river of 15 gallons of top soil for every gallon of ethanol simply does not occur with modern, environmentally sound farming practices including crop rotation, conservation tillage, planting and harvesting, filter strips and the scientific use of agricultural chemicals. As the nation commercializes the conversion of ethanol and other biofuels from cellulosic biomass, the planting of grasses and trees on erodible land will bring increasing levels of top soil to farm lands, a process already well under way.</br></br>Richard G. Hawn needs to visit Brazil to verify his claims of poor-running cars and double-the-size gas tanks. Essentially all cars in Brazil run on ethanol, either in blends of 22% ethanol/78% gasoline or 99% ethanol (a little touch of denaturant to keep the imbibers away). They run well and the public is pleased. The fuel tanks are about 20% larger than they would be if straight gasoline were used. He is right about the Btu content of ethanol being lower than gasoline -- 76,000 Btu compared with about 119,000 for gasoline. But he neglected to mention that the increased thermal efficiency of ethanol when combusted and its much higher octane permits engine designs that will almost remove the Btu advantage of gasoline. He also failed to mention that air quality in San Paulo Brazil, with a population of 14 million, is better than in Los Angeles, New York City or Houston Texas. There are, of course, "externalities" in this observation -- and I will show mine when the oil companies show theirs. | no | 0 |
If I Were the Boss . . . | When Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) or Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) starts work as president next year, he'll automatically get lots of perks without even passing a probationary period. He'll be able to fly without paying extra for baggage, food or decent leg room. He'll ride in a luxury car, but he won't have to pump fuel costing more than $4 a gallon. And he'll occupy the finest unit in all of public housing.</br></br>On the other hand, he'll also have to deal with some tricky issues involving the federal workplace. We asked the candidates about some of those issues. We ran McCain's responses yesterday. Here is what the Obama campaign told us.</br></br>QFederal labor leaders complain that outside contractors perform jobs that should be done by government employees. Do you favor any suspension of contracting out activities? Do you favor legislation that would prohibit the IRS from using appropriated funds to hire private tax collectors?</br></br>ASen. Obama is concerned by the rising number of government contractors that are often unaccountable and frequently less efficient than government workers. As president, Obama will restore effective oversight of the government-contracting process and reduce our nation's increasing dependence on private contractors in sensitive or inherently governmental functions. Obama will eliminate the Bush administration's ideological bias towards outsourcing of government services and abandon initiatives, like the inefficient use of private bill collectors to collect federal taxes, that are a demonstrated waste of taxpayer money.</br></br>The Bush administration would like to see "pay for performance" replace the General Schedule pay system for federal workers. If elected, what would you do regarding pay for performance? | no | 0 |
Jobless Claims Fall, but Still Elevated | The number of people claiming new jobless benefits dropped last week, but the still-elevated level reflects a continued weakness in the U.S. labor market.</br></br>Separately, U.S. labor costs rose last spring even more than first thought as worker productivity fell, threatening to hurt corporate profits and job growth amid the economy's fight to recover.</br></br>Initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 409,000 in the week ended Aug. 27, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims filed in the previous week were revised to 421,000 from an originally reported 417,000.</br></br>Economists had forecast claims would drop by less than they did. A Dow Jones Newswires survey put the expected decline at 7,000. However, the level remains too high: economists generally think the economy is adding more jobs than it is shedding when claims drop below 400,000.</br></br>The four-week moving average of new claims, a more reliable indicator of the labor market's recent performance because it smooths out volatile weekly data, rose by 1,750 to 410,250. | yes | 1 |
Traders Again Reward the Euro | The euro hit a seven-session high against the dollar Wednesday as traders rewarded the common currency for its resistance to U.S. economic weakness.</br></br>In New York, the euro rose intraday to $1.5833 from a low of $1.5585, extending a rally started after the release of strong euro- zone data that contrast sharply with U.S. fundamentals.</br></br>"The euro's been bid pretty much all day," said Adam Boyton, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York. "It's that combination of strength in European data, weakness in U.S. data, and the interest-rate differential continues to widen in favor of the euro."</br></br>Official rates in the euro zone stand at 4% compared with 2.25% in the U.S.</br></br>At 4 p.m. in New York, the euro was at $1.5832, from $1.5611 Tuesday, while the dollar was at 99.33 yen from 100.16 yen. The euro was at 157.27 yen from 156.36 yen. The British pound was at $2.0073, from $2.0010 Tuesday, and the dollar was at 0.9901 Swiss francs, from 1.0081. | no | 0 |
Time to Reassess if Stocks Can Gain More --- After a Big Run, Market Appears Vulnerable; Despite Happy News, Consumer Spending Lags Behind | As investors return from the Labor Day weekend, they are preoccupied with one big worry: whether the enormous stock rally of the past six months can continue.</br></br>The days after Labor Day historically are a time to reassess and evaluate. The bottom line is that after a series of positive surprises in economic and corporate reports has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 44% since March 9, the stock market remains on precarious footing.</br></br>As long as the happy news keeps coming, the gains can continue. But the more good news investors get, the harder it is to surprise them, and the bigger the risk that some lurking disappointment could spoil the party.</br></br>"World economies are no longer 'on the brink of an abyss' and economic growth seems within reach," says Gordon Fowler, chief investment officer at Philadelphia money-management firm Glenmede Trust, in a report to clients. But consumers and government need to reduce their substantial debts, and that "has the potential to derail the pleasant uptrend."</br></br>The good news is that a whole series of items that appeared poised for disaster six months ago seem now to be getting steadily better. | no | 0 |
Maryland Stages Strong Comeback from Recession: Diversified Industry | Maryland is recovering from j the recession at a faster rate than the nation as a whole, and for the first time in many years prosperity is showing in such chronic trouble spots as Hagerstown.</br></br>Unemployment dropped in the State in November to 4.5 per cent of the labor force, the lowest unemployment figure since the end of 1957. This compares to a national unemployment figure of 6-1 per cent.</br></br>Last February, Maryland S: unemployment figure was 6.5 j per cent, compared to a na-l tional average of 6.8 per cent.</br></br>The StateÛªs great diversification of industry'ÛÓ16 of the 21 major types of manufacturing in the United States are represented in Maryland to a significent degree. (13 employ a minimum of 5000 people; three employ a minimum of 1000 people.)</br></br>The three major events of 1961 on the economic front according to George W. Hub-ley, director of the Maryland Department of Economic Development, are establishment of new industries on the East-! ern Shore; the location of the | no | 0 |
Poor Earnings Didn't Derail Market Bounce; Analysts of Three Minds On Indications for 2002 | Since Sept. 21, the Nasdaq composite index has roared back 34 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average is up 20 percent, nearly to 10,000, where it had not been since August.</br></br>Is the market anticipating an economic rally next year? Is the country more confident because of military success in Afghanistan? Can this stock market recovery last?</br></br>The different answers come from three camps: bull, bear and a third group that wonders why the questions are being asked at all.</br></br>Since the Sept. 11 attacks made the whole world, including the stock market, riskier, some think that valuing stocks at their pre- attack levels is unjustified.</br></br>"For now, the market has moved too far, too fast," said Alan Ackerman, chief investment strategist at Fahnestock and Co. "A contraction in the market now would be neither unexpected nor unhealthy." "My hesitancy about this market is that absolute valuations are still absurdly high, whether you look at price-to-book ratios, price- to-earnings. . . . They're all off the chart," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management. | yes | 1 |
Two IPOs Have Subdued Debuts | Dow Jones Newswires</br></br>A slow week for new stock offerings was typified by subdued debuts yesterday from insurance-services company CRM Holdings Ltd. and semiconductor designer Pixelplus Co.</br></br>CRM Holdings, a Bermuda-based company that provides fee-based management services for self-insured groups, closed at $13 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, flat with its IPO price. CRM, which specializes on groups that self-insure for workers' compensation risk, sold 2.85 million shares at the low end of the expected price range of $13-to- $16 set by underwriters Sandler O'Neill and KeyBanc Capital Markets.</br></br>CRM reported total revenue of $31.6 million in the first nine months of 2005, up 31% from the same period in 2004. Its net income was $5.3 million, up 36%.</br></br>The workers' compensation insurance industry is fraught with risk and competition from major insurers. In CRM's case, its operations are concentrated solely in New York and California, while larger competitors offer multistate coverage. An IPO from workers' compensation insurer Amerisafe Inc. in November had a similar tepid reception, closing flat with its offer price, but the stock is currently trading up 10% from its offer price. | no | 0 |
To End Stagnation pg. A18 | The new figures on unemployment strongly suggest that the time has come for more drastic-measures to reshape and reinvigorate the national productive effort. Conferences among top Administration officials at the White House indicate that some such measures are being formulated. But if there is to be a genuine rebirth of confidence, without which the slump cannot be arrested, whatever program is being formulated must have some real substance. Mere restatements of the presidential optimism, it is now plain, will not suffice.</br></br>At the same time, it needs to be kept constantly in mind that powerful forces of expansion are still present which, unrestrained, could again lead, quickly to unacceptable inflation. The capacity to build homes, for example, and the need for more housing are as strong as ever and will grow stronger in the decade ahead. The same is true in many other fields. What is required is just enough new incentive to get the ball rolling; what is to be avoided is a slam-bang, crash program that would in a short time require .severe hew restraints to prevent a price runaway.</br></br>If a tax cut should become necessary to trigger a resumption of growth, most assuredly it should contain an automatic repeal provision. Federal spending needs to be increased by several billions annually if urgent defense and domestic needs are to be met. An increase in the 1959 budget goals would also have a considerable tonic effect on the economy. If, later on, it appeared that higher spending was having an inflationary effect, the budget could be restored to balance by a tax increase. For this year and perhaps for the next, however, a deficit would certainly be no cause for alarm.</br></br>As for monetary controls, the Federal Reserve Board ought to encourage further cuts in the rediscount rate at once. Very soon it should case bank reserve requirements if the situation does not improve. These actions arc easily reversible. The very fact that the financial community knows thisÛÓand knows that reversal would come swiftly if requiredÛÓmeans that fairly vigorous actions to case credit restraint are required to induce an actual credit expansion. The two cuts in' the ÛÏFedÛ rediscount rate made since the current recession began last fall have not been strong enough medicine.</br></br>An immediate and determined Administration drive for long-term renewal of the Trade Agreements Act and for a real expansion of foreign economic development aid also would have a useful effect in restoring confidence. The slump in exports is serious and cannot be altogclhcr offsel by any foreseeable expansion of Government or private spending in this country. If the Nation does not act to insure a steadily growing market for its goods overseas, it will inevitably and critically stunt its economic growth. Significantly, those countries which in recent years have outstripped the rate of American economic growth have been nations which, like Germany, the Netherlands and Japan, have been pushing foreign trade to the hilt. | no | 0 |
SEC Approves Trading Rules To Aid Small Nasdaq Investors | The Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday approved a far-reaching package of trading rules for the Nasdaq Stock Market intended to guarantee that small investors get just as good a deal as professional traders when they buy and sell stocks.</br></br>If the rules work as planned, individual investors could save a few pennies a share on many Nasdaq tradesÛÓpennies that could add up to millions of dollars on much of the 1.2 billion shares traded on Nasdaq last year.</br></br>The computerized Nasdaq system, headquartered in Wasliington, has grown to rival the New York Stock Exchange as the nation's biggest stock market, listing such prominent companies as Microsoft Corp. and MCI Communications Corp. But it has been criticized by the SEC, the Justice Department and academic researchers for trading practices that favor professionals over small investors.</br></br>Earlier this month, the SEC censured the National Association of Securities Dealers Inc., owner of Nasdaq, for permitting unfair trading practices, and it has been working on regulations to curb such abuses for more than a year.</br></br>"These rules will fundamentally change practices in the securities industry,'' said SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt Jr., who initiated the agency's drive to change Nasdaq. | no | 0 |
Revenue Surge Shrinks Deficit; Tax Cuts 'Working,' President Says, but Some Voice Caution | The federal budget deficit will slip to $333 billion this fiscal year, from $412 billion in 2004, as a surge of unanticipated tax receipts pushes the red ink significantly below levels projected just five months ago, White House officials said yesterday.</br></br>The midyear budget forecast also shows that President Bush is on track to reach his goal of halving the deficit a year before his deadline of 2009. By 2008, the White House forecasts that the deficit will fall to $162 billion, or 1.1 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). A slight rise projected for 2010 reflects the initial cost of Bush's proposal to add private investment accounts to Social Security.</br></br>"It's a sign that our economy is strong, and it's a sign that our tax relief plan, our pro-growth policies, are working," Bush said after a Cabinet meeting at the White House.</br></br>In dollar terms, the 2005 deficit of $333 billion would still be the third highest on record. That figure relies on the expenditure of about $173 billion in surplus Social Security taxes that must be repaid when baby boomers enter their retirement years. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) called the deficit numbers "misleading" because "Congress is raiding Social Security to mask the true size of the deficit," which he says should be more than $400 billion.</br></br>But the change from February's projections is dramatic. Then, the White House foresaw a record deficit of $427 billion, equal to 3.5 percent of the GDP, for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. Under that forecast, the deficit would have risen for the fourth straight year, from the $128 billion surplus Bush inherited in 2001. Now, the deficit is expected to finally begin receding, and it would come in at 2.7 percent of the GDP, smaller in those terms than the deficits of 15 of the past 25 years. | no | 0 |
Thatcher Counters U.S.-Lap Dog Image By Admonishing Washington on Deficit | LONDON -- The poodle is biting back.</br></br>Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was derided by satirists here as Ronald Reagan's "poodle" when in April 1986 she allowed U.S. planes to launch their attack on Libya from British air bases. While her international moniker has been "Iron Lady," here at home critics have cast her as America's faithful lap dog.</br></br>But she is now impatient with the Reagan administration because she believes the global financial crash -- and the ensuing uncertainty in financial markets -- threatens everything she has worked for in her eight years as prime minister. Yesterday in Parliament, she criticized American economic policy, saying she is "very anxious" for deficit-reduction negotiations between the president and Congress to succeed. "A convincing package to reduce the U.S. budget deficit is a vital first step towards restoring confidence in the financial markets," she said. The blunt public admonition followed a private message sent Wednesday to President Reagan.</br></br>After years of tough -- and politically unpopular -- retrenchment, Britain's economy is growing smartly. But if the current market turmoil continues -- and many analysts believe it will unless the U.S. slashes its budget deficit -- then Britain could be dragged into a world recession.</br></br>Mrs. Thatcher isn't without some influence over her pal, Ronald Reagan. The two have a mutual admiration society where most aspects of economic policy are concerned. But American officials aren't likely suddenly to clean up their economic mess just because Britain's prime minister has spoken. Her comments, and the more pointed statements of other British officials, instead show how peeved Britons are with American policy makers. | no | 0 |
Volcker Sees Flaws In Civil Service: Recruitment, Retention Studied | NEW YORK, Jan. 7ÛÓFederal agencies, particularly NASA, are having trouble recruiting and retaining good employees because of flaws in the civil service system, according to former Federal Reserve chairman Paul A. Volcker.</br></br>The government needs to consider raising salaries for high-ranking civil servants and limiting the number of political appointees to federal agencies, Volcker said in an interview Wednesday.</br></br>Volcker, who stepped down from the Fed chairmanship last year, is investigating civil service issues as chairman of the blue-ribbon National Commission on the Public Service.</br></br>ÛÏNASA used to be a great place to work if you were a young physicist,Û Volcker said. But the first generation is leaving, and ÛÏthereÛªs no second generation of the same competence coming along." ' ÛÏI think they have a real problem of turnover and morale" at the National Aeronautics and åÇSpace Administration, Volcker said.</br></br>Volcker said his views were personal impressions that did not necessarily reflect the views of the commission or any investigation of NASA. | no | 0 |
Take-Two Rises 8.7%; Ambac, MBIA Decline | Small stocks fell as mounting economic worries pulled the plug on a videogame celebration.</br></br>The Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks fell 7.8 points, or 1.02%, to 759.97; the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 shed 3.62, or 0.91%, to 395.15.</br></br>Shares of videogame makers powered up after large-cap Activision and Vivendi's game unit agreed to a combination. Take-Two Interactive Software rose $1.30, or 8.7%, to $16.28.</br></br>"I don't know if we're going to tumble into a recession under the classic definition, but we're certainly in pullback, or slowdown mode," said Georges Yared, chief investment strategist at Yared Investment Research, after some soft manufacturing data. "When you look at spending, whether it be automotive or large-ticket items, consumers have pulled back."</br></br>Jakks Pacific rose 1.33, or 5.3%, to 26.57 after winning a crucial round in its legal tangle with World Wrestling Entertainment. A federal court dismissed the Stamford, Conn., wrestling promoter's suit related to how Jakks originally obtained a WWE toy license. World Wrestling Entertainment fell 12 cents to 15.64 on the New York Stock Exchange. | no | 0 |
Houston Trade-Off: Fewer Traffic Fines But No Petting Zoo? --- Just as City's Economy Turns Corner, Police Slowdown Widens Budget Shortage | HOUSTON -- They serve, they protect, and they don't write traffic tickets. Who could ask for more in a police department?</br></br>Mayor Kathy Whitmire, for one.</br></br>Upset over the way they are paid for court appearances, among other issues, protesting police officers here are writing about 40% fewer tickets than budget makers had forecast. That slowdown, if it continues, will mean $13 million less in traffic fines than had been counted on in the coffers of budget-conscious Houston this fiscal year -- the biggest share of a projected $19 million budget deficit.</br></br>Although the projected total deficit is just a drop in Houston's budget bucket -- less than 3% of the general fund for the year -- it is forcing the city to heap a new round of painful cutbacks after years of scraping to the bone.</br></br>Take those 100 municipal-court workers who just got handed pink slips. Some of them were deemed dispensable because they processed traffic ticket fines. | no | 0 |
News of Slower Economic Growth, Drop In Money Supply Drive Up Bond Prices | NEW YORK -- Bond prices rallied yesterday amid fresh signs of slower economic growth and an unexpected $2.1 billion drop in the nation's money supply.</br></br>Analysts say these developments increase the chances that the Federal Reserve System will keep its credit policy unchanged. Until recently, many investors had feared that vigorous economic activity and rapid money growth would prompt the Fed to tighten its credit hold and drive up interest rates.</br></br>The Commerce Department yesterday estimated that the economy is growing at only a 2.1% annual rate this quarter, down from a 4.3% clip in last year's fourth quarter. The department's preliminary, or "flash," estimate was well below the rate of about 4% that many analysts had been expecting.</br></br>Prices of some Treasury bonds rose almost 3/4 of a point, or nearly $7.50 for each $1,000 face amount. Most short-term interest rates declined. The economic and money-supply figures are "good news for the bond markets because they mean, at least for the short term, that there is no real threat the Fed is going to be cranking up interest rates," said Robert A. Brusca, a vice president and economist at Irving Trust Co.</br></br>Donald E. Maude, chief economist at Refco Partners, agreed that the figures "take a little pressure off the Fed" to tighten credit conditions. But he argued that all they do is "buy the Fed more time." He contended that the economy and money-supply growth will reaccelerate, forcing the central bank to adopt a tougher credit policy by late next month. | yes | 1 |
'Humane1 Cuts for Prince William: County Executive Seeks to Dip Into Funds for Jail Expansion | Prince William County Executive James H. Mullen recommended cuts yesterday in a wide range of county programs but no layoffs in what he called a humane approach to wiping out the countyÛªs projected $35 million budget deficit for this year and next.</br></br>Mullen recommended eliminating 114 vacant jobs and most building projects, spending the county's jail construction fund and trimming a variety of services from libraries to police and fire and rescue.</br></br>The no-layoff plan ÛÏis the least businesslike decision to make. ItÛªs the most hopeful recommendation," Mullen said, because the cuts use the $5.9 million in funds set aside for a jail that eventually must be built and do not solve Prince WilliamÛªs long-term budget problems.</br></br>The budget-cutting proposal comes as Northern Virginia's second-largest jurisdiction faces a $14.2 million deficit this year and a more than $21 million shortfall next year because of a decline in tax revenue.</br></br>million from their budget before this year is out, and they are projecting a $152 million shortfall in fiscal 1993. | no | 0 |
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