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as growth regains solid ground, it could likely sustain inflation above the target. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 157 |
construction activity indicators slackened, with contraction in cement production in june on increase in new business activity, new export orders and employment. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 269 |
there are several factors contributing to uncertainty around this baseline inflation trajectory. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 336 |
svensson had warned long ago that flexibility (p5) in inflation targeting (it) is very important for its social acceptance. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 586 |
economic crosscurrents however make it difficult to diagnose precisely the underlying damage because of the virus over the next year. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 908 |
covid-19 led to crash in demand as well as disrupted domestic supply chains. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 14 |
stands 30 bps higher than its last forecast based on cpi data up to february 2018. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 582 |
turning to the external sector, merchandise export growth weakened in may and june from the april peak as the value of shipments across commodity groups either slowed or declined. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 293 |
investment plans for fy 2023-24. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 34 |
in each of the last four months, wpi prices have increased for larger number of commodities than ever in any of the months since october 2013. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 706 |
the committee expects that the strong improvement in sowing, along with supply management measures, will improve the food inflation outlook. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 326 |
we are also in an advantageous position in terms of contribution to potential output through labour and total factor productivity (tfp) channels. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 886 |
among advanced economies (aes), output in the us and the euro area underwent a deeper contraction in q2:2020 than in the preceding quarter. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 682 |
rbi consumer headline inflation estimate for the year is raised to 5.7 per cent, which implies the real rate has fallen further and is now too negative. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 931 |
i have consistently highlighted the risk that the persistence of cpi inflation excluding food and fuel poses to meeting the medium-term headline inflation target of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 181 |
in my statement for the last meeting (april 2024), i expressed concern about the growth sacrifice in 2024-25 induced by restrictive monetary policy. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 80 |
available high frequency indicators suggest some weakening of demand in january 2022 reflecting the drag on contact-intensive services from the fast spread of urban demand indicators, consumer durables and passenger vehicle sales contracted in november-december on account of supply constraints while domestic air traffic weakened in january under the impact of omicron. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 497 |
as per the latest available information, this risk has materialised with the uneven progress of the monsoon manifesting in the form of excess rains in the northwest regions and disrupting supply, and deficient rains in the eastern part delaying crop and the largest in recent memory. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 63 |
since then, the headline inflation prints have revealed further softening of inflation in january, followed by a pick-up in february. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 79 |
rebalancing of liquidity began early. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 406 |
in the agricultural sector, a pick-up in rabi sowing (6.4 per cent higher than a year ago on december 2) is supported by the good progress of the north-east monsoon and above average reservoir levels. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 786 |
another upside risk arises from the one-off effects of the gst. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 311 |
economic activity in russia lost pace, with soft oil prices posing a downside risk to growth. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 986 |
real gdp in 2023-24 is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent on top of a growth of 7.2 per cent recorded in 2022-23. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 821 |
the number of central banks that have becoming visible. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 33 |
however, such rate cuts should be saved for when the economy starts reviving, and not when we are in a lock-down. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 296 |
the economy needs a larger push. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 62 |
maintaining the growth momentum of consumption demand. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 211 |
the brazilian economy ended 2018 on a weak note; going into 2019, available economic indicators for q1 suggest that economic activity remained restrained by both weak domestic and external demand. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 339 |
fuel inflation has eased due to a drop in international liquefied petroleum gas (lpg) prices. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 542 |
this provides an overall context for an assessment of the likely course of growth and inflation in the short to medium term. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 56 |
services gva growth also remained unchanged in q3; while growth in construction activity accelerated, there was some loss of momentum in public administration, defence and other services. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 396 |
the government have helped in reducing the potential impact of price impulses from external markets. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 768 |
however, it has still not started exercising any pressure on unemployment and wage scenario and thereby on inflation. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 628 |
tightening global financial conditions and recessionary fears in advanced economies are acting as drags on the domestic economy as well. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 764 |
while strong domestic fundamentals and healthy level of foreign exchange reserves shall bode well for the external sector, the speed of domestic vaccination drive will be key in containing short-term risks to domestic economic recovery and mitigating spillovers from global shocks. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 545 |
industrial sector gva growth fell sequentially as well as on a y-o-y basis. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 340 |
assuming a normal monsoon next year, cpi inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent with q1 at 5.0 per cent; q2 at 4.0 per cent; q3 at 4.6 per cent; and q4 at 4.7 per cent (chart 2). | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 742 |
the time to begin is upon us. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 30 |
higher investment and income would reinforce higher savings as we have seen in q4:2022-23 when the net household financial savings normalised to its long-term average of 7.0 per cent from a low range of 4.0 to 4.6 per cent in the first three quarters of 2022-23. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 657 |
first, aggregate bank credit and overall financial flows to the commercial sector continue to be strong, but are yet to be broad-based. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 241 |
we have to remain vigilant and ready to act effectively in our journey towards 4 per cent inflation target. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 324 |
in june, i warned against declaring victory based on the inflation prints of just a couple of months, and expressed discomfort with the self-congratulatory tone of the mpc statement of that month about inflation having come inside the tolerance band. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 725 |
iip for capital goods and infrastructure/ construction goods rose sharply in november 2022, on yoy basis, after a weak growth in october. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 449 |
with both inflation and growth outcomes being well within the range of expectations of the mpc, and short term interest rates being within the corridor defined by the repo and reverse repo rate, there is nothing to be done and there is nothing to be said as of now. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 407 |
going forward, growth is likely to get some support from fiscal spending in the remaining months of this fiscal year when bulk of the on-budget stimulus is likely to be spent. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 53 |
available data for q3:2021-22 indicate that the momentum of economic activity is gaining further traction, aided by expanding vaccination coverage, the rapid subsiding of new improved in october over the same month of 2019 (pre-pandemic level), while motorcycle sales are slowly inching towards their pre-pandemic levels. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 200 |
steps have also been taken in the union budget to revive economic activity, with a focus on rural and infrastructure sectors. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 97 |
moreover, imputed cpi excluding food and fuel inflation during april-may surged by 90-100 bps from march readings. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 150 |
i also worry that india is not consolidating fiscally although the extra budgetary spending on social welfare and stimulative programs may not materialize (unless states match it with their own initiatives). | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 194 |
amidst all these, the indian economy presents a picture of resilience with macroeconomic and financial stability. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 747 |
high frequency indicators of investment demand remained weak, including consumption of finished steel, import of capital goods and capital goods production (as per the use-based classification of iip), although the year-on-year contraction in cement production eased considerably in june. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 310 |
monetary policy has adopted an ultra-accommodative stance to revive growth and mitigate the effects of covid-19. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 7 |
capital flows to emerging market economies (emes) remain volatile and global spillovers pose risks to growth prospects. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 805 |
in the past, food deflation has had strong seasonal patterns which have tended to rebound and with vengeance when rainfall disappoints. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 390 |
let me now briefly sum up how growth and inflation scenarios might unfold and my view on the decisions at hand. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 245 |
as pressures on oil prices persist, pump prices began rising steeply in end march. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 18 |
on the supply side, gross value added (gva) rose by 12.7 per cent in q1:2022-23, with all constituents recording y-o-y growth and most notably, services. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 341 |
in the subsequent weeks, however, the surge in new infections turned severe and broad-based both in its spread across states and in the intensity of the increase, putting enormous pressure on the health system with heavy toll on human lives. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 286 |
there can also be a bad t i 2009 10 h h ith ti l b ild f d ti i fl ti pressures and inflation expectations occurred on the back of surging food prices in the backdrop of a failed monsoon, and it spilled over into other components. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 461 |
households reacted to the recent hardening of food inflation adaptively and raised their inflation expectations survey of households. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 656 |
on balance, i remain concerned about (i) the elevated level of inflation excluding food and fuel; (ii) upward risks that could emanate from oil prices and fiscal implications of sustained food deflation; and, (iii) lack of adequate and sustained downward adjustment in household inflation expectations over the past 12 months. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 363 |
oil prices have declined by more than 30 percent since its peak in early october mainly reflecting increases and prospective increases in global supply. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 940 |
high frequency indicators, after impressive sequential improvements during june-october 2021 lost momentum in november but bounced back in december. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 649 |
the move towards an active disinflationary stance of monetary policy since the beginning of 2022-23 has helped to bring down inflation from its highly elevated levels, break the core inflation persistence and prevent inflation expectations from getting unanchored. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 15 |
the fiscal stimulus under atmanirbhar 2.0 and 3.0 schemes of government will likely accelerate public investment, although private investment remains sluggish amidst still low capacity utilisation. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 342 |
registered price rise of below 6%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 798 |
monetary policy clearly can do little about the first-round effect of a supply side shock emanating from say vegetables. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 873 |
iii) rbi survey has found that companies have started investing in financial assets rather than fixed assets. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 123 |
recent data arrivals point to a pick-up in seasonally adjusted momentum of real gdp growth into positive territory in the second quarter of 2022-23. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 906 |
an increasing number of high frequency indicators are moving into positive territory, construction is boosted by policy initiatives, and public administration, defence and other services will be supported by the pay commission award. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 722 |
the services and infrastructure. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 110 |
crude oil prices, us yields and us dollar, all of which were rising then. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 31 |
the realisation of the projected growth will translate to only a meagre average growth rate of 0.85 per cent in two years following 2019-20. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 664 |
while fuel inflation surged, core (cpi excluding food and fuel) inflation moderated in april across most sub-groups barring housing and health, mainly due to base effects. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 720 |
however, both global and domestic financial conditions have tightened, which may dampen investment activity. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 521 |
although household inflation expectations are naive and much in excess of realized inflation, the direction of change is instructive. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 175 |
a normal south-west monsoon along with comfortable buffer stocks should help to keep cereal price pressures in check. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 392 |
therefore, liquidity needs to be kept in sufficient surplus to absorb these shocks even as the excess is reduced allowing the reverse repo to rise gradually and arrangements for non-banks remain in place. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 817 |
nevertheless, headline cpi inflation in q4 of 2016-17 is likely to be below 5 per cent. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 953 |
since the mpc met in march 2020, global economic activity has remained in standstill under covid-19 related lockdowns and social distancing. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 328 |
taking into account these considerations, i vote for a pause in the policy repo 32. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 126 |
thirdly, inflation excluding food and fuel remains persistently high. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 4 |
although equity markets have made gains in emes in general, they faced risk aversion in some economies. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 889 |
headline inflation increased to 5.0 per cent in february after having eased to 4.1 per cent in january 2021. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 989 |
commodity prices, especially crude, have been volatile and so has the exchange rate. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 726 |
firms polled in the reserve bank surveys expect expansion in production volumes and new orders in q2:2021-22, which is likely to sustain through q4. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 414 |
output gap is especially difficult to measure under distress as well as pull out of a decade long investment slowdown. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 965 |
dr. pami dua, dr. ravindra h. dholakia, dr. michael debabrata patra and shri shaktikanta das voted in favour of the decision to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 661 |
the meeting was attended by all the members - dr. chetan ghate, professor, indian statistical institute; dr. pami dua, director, delhi school of economics; and dr. ravindra h. dholakia, professor, indian institute of management, ahmedabad; dr. michael debabrata patra, executive director (the officer of the bank nominated by the central board under section 45zb(2)(c) of the amended act); shri r. gandhi, deputy governor in charge of monetary policy - and was chaired by dr. urjit r. patel, governor. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 9 |
inflation expectations also remain elevated. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 197 |
given the uncertain inflation outlook, we have to remain watchful to see that the momentum in inflation does not get entrenched, which is also dependent on effective supply-side measures. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 435 |
growth is picking up. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 553 |
economic activity remained robust in emerging market economies (emes) in q1:2018. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 887 |
the provisional estimates brought out by national statistics office (nso) for 2020-21 on may 31 now place the real gdp growth at -7.3 per cent over the previous year, a lower rate of contraction than provided in the second advance estimates. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 160 |
- the mpc also decided to remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 637 |
the prevailing macroeconomic conditions point to a continuation of the strong growth momentum into 2024-25, particularly as a normal monsoon brings relief to the outlook for agricultural sector. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 950 |
taking into account these factors, and assuming a favourable monsoon rainfall, the average headline inflation rate for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent, the same as in the mpc meeting of june. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 799 |
the export growth in october-november 2021 has continued to support overall gdp growth. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 88 |
states have now started forming a larger proportion of the public expenditures and having a clear idea on their fiscal deficits is important for the monetary policy. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 487 |
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