Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
reserve_bank_of_india

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
sentences
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15
503
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4 values
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2 values
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2 values
year
int64
2.02k
2.02k
__index_level_0__
int64
1
999
the decline in economic output is reflected in both production and expenditure accounts across most components.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
134
inflation remains highly vulnerable to food price spikes, as the spurt in momentum in daily data on key food items for the month of november and early december reveal.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
522
inflation in the fuel and light group continued to rise on the back of a significant increase in liquefied petroleum gas prices, tracking international product prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
422
this is consistent with inflation cycle downturn that began in mid-2018 is poised to persist.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
239
a rate cut can amplify it if the central bank is seen as encouraging risk-taking.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
996
so it is important to ensure a sustained and sustainable revival this time.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
146
meanwhile, inflationary pressures have continued unabated, posing challenges for monetary policy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
218
overall business situation is expected to improve in q3: 2021-22 and remain robust in q4 and q1: 2022-23, particularly for manufacturing and services.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
290
notwithstanding these developments, inflation is well below target in most aes and is subdued across most emes.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
783
that inflation exceeds the mpc target when demand has crashed much below potential output suggests lockdown related shocks have pushed up the supply curve.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
473
the domestic inflation outlook presented in the february 2022 mpc meeting has undergone a significant upward shift since the start of the war on february 24, 2022, with the escalation of conflict and subsequent turmoil in global commodity markets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
315
continued policy support with a focus on revival and sustenance of growth is indeed the most desirable and judicious policy option at this moment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
815
in the case of private investment, that includes corporate and household sector investment, the favourable policy incentives emerging new opportunities in the economy and spending.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
909
on the other hand, consumer confidence turned more demand is expected to remain anaemic under the weight of the global recession and contraction in global trade.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
934
the reserve bank has conducted market liquidity operations consistent with the liquidity management framework put in place in april 2016, progressively moving the system level _ex ante liquidity conditions to close to neutrality.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
402
net foreign direct investment doubled in april-may 2017 over its level a year ago, flowing mainly into manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade and business services.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
510
average indian inflation is lower and trending down.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
732
the overall inflation outlook is expected to be clouded by volatile and uncertain food prices and intermittent weather shocks.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
26
this inflation correction bears testimony to careful projections and judgment that by keeping policy accommodative, enabled avoiding what could have been a costly policy mistake.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
39
although it seems meaningful to compare progress with a pre-pandemic year, it needs to be noted that in 2019-20, a cyclical downturn had matured over 2 and a half years, taking down real gdp growth to its lowest in the 2011-12 based series of national accounts.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
86
macroeconomic and financial stability is now well entrenched and needs to be nurtured and preserved with well calibrated and timely actions.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
47
there has been significant improvement in the progress of the monsoon and _kharif sowing in july; however, the_ impact of the uneven rainfall distribution warrants careful monitoring.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
807
headline inflation adjusted for the estimated impact of hra for central government employees moderated significantly from 4.6 per cent in june 2018 to 3.8 per cent in july and further to 3.4 per cent in august, reversing the trend of previous three months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
957
protein based food items could also emerge as a pressure point, given the tight demand-supply balance in the case of pulses.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
903
considering a range of factors influencing the inflation pattern in the short-term, the headline inflation is projected at 5.6% and 5.2% in q3 and q4: 2023-24, respectively, and 5.2% in q1: 2024-25 followed by 4% in q2 and 4.7% in q3.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
526
indicators such as railway freight, motor spirits consumption show improvement yoy basis and remain above 2019-20 levels or catching up with them.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
933
there is already some reversal of remissions given in the pandemic times.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
454
persistence of negative output gap imposes severe social costs on the economy that is largely borne by the poor and the unemployed.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
606
the likelihood of lower interest rates has spurred rallies in equity markets, although uncertainty about the timing of interest rate reduction is reflected in bidirectional movements in the us dollar and sovereign bond yields.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
941
7 report on currency and finance, rbi 2021-22.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
298
moreover, india is subject to large negative liquidity shocks from rise in currency holding, government cash balances and foreign capital outflows[1].
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
702
although recent food inflation prints have surprised on the downside and prices of petroleum products have softened considerably, it is important to monitor their evolution closely and allow heightened short-term uncertainties to be resolved by incoming data.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
142
while keeping in mind the objective of growth, the foot must remain on the brake as we chart our future trajectory.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
273
forward-looking actions are aiming to be state-contingent, carefully calibrated to the evolving situation and to incoming data.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
943
in keeping with this stance, the policy rate has been reduced by 75 basis points since february 2020 when the virus outbreak assumed pandemic proportions.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
223
there are clearer signs of revival of investment activity.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
154
while the us and the euro area registered record-setting contraction in output in q2:2020, the emerging market economies (emes) also look set to see large declines in output.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
103
vegetable prices, a major source of inflation volatility, have remained contained in the year so far and are likely to remain soft, assuming no disruption due to unseasonal rains.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
724
the calibrated tightening by 250 basis points between may 2022 to february 2023 has achieved disinflation with minimal output sacrifice as growth remains strong.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
369
there is, however, uncertainty about the sustainability of this softening in inflation in fuel items.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
502
as the path of disinflation needs to be sustained, the mpc decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent in this meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
44
the consumer optimism is accompanied by caution as the survey indicates that the expectation of increase in overall spending - _i.e., the percentage of respondents_ expecting increased spending - is yet to reach levels of pre-pandemic period.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
532
the great inflation episode after the oil price shock of 1973 bears testimony of these risks to which one needs to be mindful, even though recent flattening of phillips curve has diminished correlation between core inflation and output.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
106
viral v. acharya voted to keep the policy rate unchanged.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
558
flows are still capped at 6 per cent of outstanding stocks of g-secs.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
259
of 50 per cent.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,021
616
hence, i vote for keeping the policy rate unchanged and for continuing with the stance of withdrawal of accommodation.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
114
the world is changing in many important ways.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
795
real gdp growth is projected at 7.1 per cent for q1:2023-24 and at 5.9 per cent for q2 (chart 2).
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
338
both the service and manufacturing pmis continue to be in expansion mode for the last several months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
155
the recent data suggests that the incidence of new infections has declined.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
186
research finds inflation to be more in covid-19 affected products.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
222
the fortieth meeting of the monetary policy committee (mpc), constituted under 2022.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
162
india is being impacted by the global inflation crisis as recent outcomes have shown.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
862
considering all of above, i vote for leaving the policy rate unchanged and maintaining accommodative stance as communicated in the resolution, that emphasises need for continued support to growth, while remaining watchful for a durable reduction in inflation to use the available space so as to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
87
while government borrowing to finance the fiscal deficit is at a high level, government spending to support investment and consumption are needed at this juncture.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
569
merchandise exports declined by 1.1 per cent in october 2017 after showing positive growth for 14 consecutive months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
164
dr. shashanka bhide, dr. ashima goyal, dr. rajiv ranjan, dr. michael debabrata patra and shri shaktikanta das voted to increase the policy repo rate by 35 basis points.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
90
business expectations of headline inflation as well as input costs are showing similar trends, rising steadily in rbi's and other surveys.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
843
households are telling us that their inflation outlook has moved palpably upwards.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
945
turning to the stance, i find that with every successive meeting, this stance is becoming more and more disconnected from reality.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
775
the imf update also notes that the risks to the projections are on the downside, with lower growth and higher inflation, but more moderate than its october 2022 assessment.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
762
on balance, the committee envisages a trajectory taking headline cpi inflation towards a central tendency of 5 per cent by march 2017, with risks tilted to the upside _albeit lower than in the second and third bi-monthly monetary policy_ statements of june and august respectively (chart 1).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
354
these developments certainly have two major takeaways for central bankers.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
748
moreover, base effects will reverse and turn adverse during q3 and q4 of 2017-18.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
29
the expectations of a red piping-hot recovery have been belied.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
840
investment activity production of capital goods declined on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in november.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
544
moreover, if high cost of living conditions persists, the household inflation expectations could edge up feeding into wages in a broad-based manner and pushing up services inflation, which has been muted so far.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
287
bond yields in major aes have been largely range-bound.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
727
merchandise exports clocked double-digit growth for the fifteenth successive month in may 2022, despite heightened global uncertainty.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
703
during q1:2020-21, the economy faced its deepest contraction ever, which was also the worst amongst g20 countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
626
the meeting was attended by all the members - dr. chetan ghate, professor, indian statistical institute; dr. pami dua, director, delhi school of economics; dr. ravindra h. dholakia, professor, indian institute of management, ahmedabad; dr. michael debabrata patra, executive director (the officer of the reserve bank nominated by the central board under section 45zb(2)(c) of the reserve bank of india act, 1934); dr.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,017
446
through the current episode, inflation has declined from an average of 7.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2022-23 (peak at 7.8 per cent in april 2022) to 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2023-24 (4.8 per cent in june 2023), i.e., by 270 basis points.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
207
the pace of vehicle loans in april-june 2024 has declined, compared to the previous year but remains in double digits.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
466
with the present growth momentum, gdp in 2021-22 is expected to exceed the level achieved in 2019-20.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
605
with the likely contraction in economic activity and the inflation outlook remaining soft, the policy space has opened up.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
75
administered prices of lpg and kerosene are set to rise with the calibrated reduction in subsidy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
16
nonetheless, the currently abundant liquidity with banks is likely to persist into the early months of 2017-18.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
428
the risk of ceding part of the operational range to the indifference range makes it imperative to emphasise the primacy of the 4 per cent inflation target.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
98
even as the supply side is expected to ease gradually as the lockdown related restrictions are phased out, it is the demand side, which will continue to weigh heavily on economic activity for some time to come.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
960
even the turnaround in net exports is fragile and heavily dependent on the strength of the vaccinationpropelled revival in external demand, which may be partially offset by the terms of trade loss on account of the rise in international commodity prices, particularly crude oil.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
485
therefore, excess outflows or a temporary balance of payments deficit requires some of these reserves to be used to moderate excess rupee volatility.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
538
on balance, therefore, it is prudent to wait and watch how these factors play out and impinge upon the outlook.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
572
consequently, markets and analysts get increasingly certain that inflation may remain elevated through the greater part of 2022 and growth will slow further absent policy action to unclog supply bottlenecks.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
61
importantly, non-food non-fuel inflation has remained sticky, notwithstanding the transitory impact of demonetisation on consumption demand.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
689
markets have priced in a possible pivot, although communication shocks continue to create volatility.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
615
one of the factors that has led to the upward revision is the increase in average crude oil price for the year also affecting trade balance.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
976
retail inflation, measured by y-o-y change in the cpi, declined from 3.4 per cent in october 2018 to 2.2 per cent in december, the lowest print in the last eighteen months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
260
however, given the buoyancy in oil, and the risks of imported inflation from movements in the exchange rate, both variables need to be carefully watched.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
948
while the debt segment of the domestic capital market attracted foreign portfolio investment of us$ 14.4 billion, there were significant outflows in the equity segment in august-september on account of geo-political uncertainties and expected cent in the second half of 2017-18.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
518
quick implementation of various reform measures can also inject growth impulses into the indian economy in the medium to long term.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
779
despite recovery in 2021-22, real gdp is only marginally higher than the pre-pandemic level with private consumption still trailing its 2019-20 level.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
46
the war-induced price spikes in food, oil, gas, fertiliser and several key industrial inputs, together with continued supply chain bottlenecks, are posing major upside risks to inflation which has already scaled multidecadal highs in several countries.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
527
while the impact of our actions so far continues to play out in the economy, our job is not yet fully over.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
377
we need to continue to sustain the impulses of growth in the new financial year 2021-22.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
5
cushioned by government spending and rural of services, such as passenger vehicles and railway freight, have gradually recovered in q2.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
956
the large divergence between gross value added (gva) and gdp growth is expected to narrow down substantially in the current fiscal as central government subsidies are budgeted to contract moderately compared to a large contraction seen in the previous year.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
864
the slower output growth is also production of passenger cars and the travel restrictions affecting the aviation sector and the related businesses.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
861
hence, i vote for status quo in the policy rate and maintenance of the neutral stance.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
48
however, under prevailing circumstances, the immediate transmission should be considered not so much in terms of the bank deposit and lending rates but more specific rates influencing new investments such as housing loans, vehicle loans and long term bonds.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
256