Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
reserve_bank_of_india

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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this is precipitating diverse monetary policy actions which are accentuating the fissures in the global economy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
705
indian oil majors turned profitable in the summer last year and are showing large profits.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
921
the resurgence in inflation in may and june above the upper threshold has reignited the debate on the appropriate monetary policy response.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
158
the increased dependence on fossil fuels can structurally lift energy inflation and its passthrough to general price level.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
654
keeping in view these factors, the projection of real gva growth for 2017-18 has been retained at the june 2017 projection of 7.3 per cent, with risks evenly balanced (chart 2).
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
822
the manufacturing purchasing managers index (pmi) remained in expansion in may although it moderated to 50.8 from 55.5 in april due to a slowdown in output and new orders.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
43
the monthly headline cpi inflation prints of january and february 2019 have continued to undershoot the rbi projections substantially, forcing the rbi for further downward revision of headline inflation from 2.8 to 2.4 percent for q4:fy 2018-19.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
189
household inflation expectations have become much less volatile in the post-pandemic period, falling slowly along with inflation itself.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
869
inflation has moderated into the tolerance band but is not yet firmly on the path to target, particularly in view of monsoon related uncertainties.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
987
after a modest increase in may, imports also contracted in june, impacted by falling prices of petroleum products and reduced imports of pearls and precious stones, transport equipment, machinery, metalliferous ores, chemicals and fertilisers.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
467
deficient demand may hold down pressures on core inflation (excluding food and fuel), although persisting supply dislocations impart uncertainty to the near term outlook.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
257
the monsoon is likely to be normal and may help to sustain the low food inflation trajectory.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
658
but in ems communication has more impact.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
754
global inflationary trends have remained on the upside too.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
632
professional forecasters all expect inflation to soften in h2 of this fiscal year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
426
household physical savings is measured as identical to household physical investment savings in india, so it is the net financial savings that affect the cad.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
288
recovery in economic activity is expected to begin in q3 and gain momentum in q4 as supply lines are gradually restored to normalcy and demand gradually revives.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
70
that the size of the economy in 2021-22 will be moderately higher than 2019-20.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
167
while the indicators such as non-food bank credit, gst collections and pmi for both manufacturing and services point to the continued momentum of domestic demand, the overall yoy growth in h2 of 2022-23 is expected to be lower compared to h1.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
102
capital flows to emes have continued, but appear increasingly vulnerable to the normalisation of monetary policy by the us fed.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
250
cargo carried by sea, rail and air also registered higher growth in november, but showed mixed performance in december.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
832
spreads widened for 10-year g-secs, although rates fell to their lowest in many years.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
916
the overall situation needs to be monitored carefully, both in the sides of growth and inflation.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
763
8 [https://pib.gov.in/pressreleaseiframepage.aspx?prid=187655](https://pib.gov.in/pressreleaseiframepage.aspx?prid=187655) 9 united nations population fund.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
84
taking all these factors into consideration, the real gdp growth projection for 2022-23 is retained at 7.2 per cent, with q1 at 16.2 per cent; q2 at 6.2 per cent; q3 at 4.1 per cent; and q4 at 4.0 per cent, with risks broadly balanced (chart 2).
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
295
while a negative demand shock because of the withdrawal of sbns will lead to a decline in consumption demand, the risks that such a reduction will have longer term effects by impinging on overall investment sentiment and investment activity are low.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
125
liquidity in the system may also be seen in totality taking into account all moving variables including excess crr and slr holdings of banks, and revenue and expenditure pattern of the government.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
845
imports of coal, electronic goods, pearls and precious stones, vegetable oils and machinery also accelerated.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
191
brazil appears to be emerging out of recession, although growth dynamics remain fragile due to worsening labour market conditions and political turmoil.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
617
furthermore, there are clear signs of economic activity holding up well in q1:2023-24[2] as indicated by various high frequency indicators and this optimism is expected to follow through in the remaining quarters of 2023-24.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
64
in my opinion, the neutral policy stance needs to be seriously reconsidered in favour of the accommodative stance given the above arguments.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
709
it is the mpc, whose mandate covers all interests, respond to pressing priorities and seize opportunities.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
247
increased capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector also augurs well for investment activity, especially because bank credit growth has continued to accelerate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
434
performance in q3 of 2018 19 was stable; capacity utilisation absolute or seasonally adjusted has remained robust and close to or above 75 for past two quarters; pmi manufacturing and services continue to remain in expansion mode at healthy levels; and consumer sentiment surveyed by the rbi has improved.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
362
some moderation in the rate of increase in prices of 14.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
215
the above assessment gives me the comfort to vote in favour of a cut in the repo rate by 25 basis points.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
879
monetary policy has more space to affect demand, while high debt and interest payments constrain fiscal spending.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
985
exports for the survey of order books, inventories and capacity utilisation in companies conducted in january-march 2022, reveals increase in capacity utilisation rate in the manufacturing sector in q3:2021-22, moving closer to its long-term average.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
652
there seems little scope for accommodation or for change of stance at the present juncture.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
316
in the initial period when inflation targeting was introduced, causality was thought to be from headline to core inflation[2].
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
489
several other risks remain.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,018
89
these price pressures in food and fuel resulted in a pick-up in cpi inflation in october despite large favourable base effects.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
977
the arguments made in my last statement are still valid.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,024
199
nominal income growth, although reserve money growth varied widely over the pandemic and demonetization periods.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
277
the lower _rabi sowing reflects a deficient north-east monsoon (44 per cent_ 2019) was marginally higher than in the previous year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
878
since the august meeting, the risks to inflation have increased, but only slightly.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
789
going forward, the spike in vegetable prices, led by tomatoes, would exert sizeable upside pressures on the near-term headline inflation trajectory.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
408
inflation targeting anchors inflation if policy rates rise one for one with expected inflation, so the expected real rate is positive and close to the equilibrium rate.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
865
global conditions affecting commodity prices are the other exogenous elements impacting the fuel prices and prices of other inputs.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
148
[4] with less budgeted market borrowings and bond inclusion driven flows expected in 2024, the fisc has vacated space for the private sector on the one hand, while on the other hand taken steps to crowd in private investment through its continued focus on capex and other long term sustainable growth initiatives in areas like solar energy, health, innovation and renewables.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
894
however, global trade remains subdued due to an increasing tendency towards protectionist policies and heightened political tensions.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
37
on the domestic inflation front, headline cpi inflation fell from 6.6 per cent in february 2020 to 5.8 per cent in march.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
776
the projected inflation rate for fy 2022-23 is at 6.7 per cent, the same as in the june mpc meeting.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
380
excess capacity and unemployment continues to be high.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
851
for all sectors together, gva in q2 increased by 19.4% over q1.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
697
the impact on fertiliser and other input supplies add to the cost of supply across the agricultural sector.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
814
domestic economic activity is holding up well, supported by domestic demand in spite of the drag from weak external demand.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
904
in q3 up to early november, liquidity conditions remained in mild surplus mode.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
252
after a spike, daily new infections are now back at the levels that prevailed at the time of the last mpc meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
929
fourth, it is a no-brainer that the fiscal impulse needs to be factored in our monetary policy calculations.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
611
the fae for 2018-19 featured an acceleration in gross fixed capital formation (gfcf) and a slowdown in consumption expenditure (both private and government).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
500
overall indian growth is resilient, but it is still below potential.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
163
the global macroeconomic environment is, however, characterised by deceleration in global demand in 2022, with increasing headwinds from financial market volatility induced by monetary policy normalisation in the systemic advanced economies (aes) and inflationary pressures from persisting supply chain disruptions.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
280
the climate change activism that is partly responsible for current spikes will also reduce oil demand in the future.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
942
first, after an initial extreme reaction, cross border flows discriminate on a country basis.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
596
taking all these factors into consideration, real gdp growth for 2023-24 is projected at 6.5 per cent with q1 at 8.0 per cent; q2 at 6.5 per cent; q3 at 6.0 per cent; and q4 at 5.7 per cent, with risks broadly balanced.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
604
also, the reverse migration of labour to villages has been muted relative to last year and inter-state movement of goods continues smoothly.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
217
second, by showing continued commitment to inflation target, monetary policy seeks focused may get carried away by certain information-fraction and tend to form expectations, impacting prices, consumption and investment.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
395
on the expenditure side, the growth of gross fixed capital formation improved for the second successive quarter.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
997
moreover, the gap between the household perception and their expectations about inflation is narrowing over recent rounds.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
475
otherwise also, consumer confidence has been dented and consumers are likely to cut down on discretionary spending.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
203
as expected, this has happened.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
850
in the services sector, domestic air passenger traffic, e-way bills, toll collections and diesel consumption exhibited buoyancy in april-may, while railway freight and port traffic registered modest growth.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
963
consequently, the standing deposit facility (sdf) rate stands adjusted to 5.15 per cent and the marginal standing facility (msf) rate and the bank rate to 5.65 per cent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
982
even if the horizon is extended to incorporate the projections for the first half of 2019-20, real gdp growth is still expected to be sub-7 per cent.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
445
currency in circulation expanded steadily during this period.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
507
on the domestic front, the growth of real gross value added (gva) accelerated sequentially in q2 of 2017-18, after five consecutive quarters of deceleration.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
645
much of what i wrote in my december statement remains valid now as well.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
196
mark-ups tend to be countercyclical, falling as capacity utilization rises and fixed costs are spread.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
708
central banks worldwide are taking such actions.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
785
the second bi-monthly statement projected quarterly average headline cent in the second half.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
423
in india, however, market expectations at present seem to be closely mile of disinflation process when beliefs are consistent with the policy regime contributing towards anchoring of long-term expectations.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
683
once the transmission mechanism is restored to better health, monetary policy will more pervasively touch different parts of the economy.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
415
furthermore, low interest rates create space for and liquidity accommodation.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
895
a low positive repo is also called for since it balances (p6) these differing interests.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
693
this warrant continuing policy support till it is set on a firm trajectory of self-sustaining expansion.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
993
a good example of forward-looking time-consistent monetary policy is the monetary in october 2016, the mpc took monetary policy action that was consistent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
781
12 some debt channels have also drawn back portfolio investment interest such as the fully accessible route (far) which d us$ 229 2 illi d h v l r i r (vrr) hi h us$ 48 illi of the world.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
400
this enhanced guidance should strengthen and quicken the pace of transmission to longer-term yields and help support consumption and investment demand in the economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
132
_kharif_ sowing is progressing well thanks to the south-west monsoon.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
55
i vote in support of the resolution to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent and the impact of covid-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target going forward.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
981
world trade volume growth is expected to have been robust in q1, as gauged from the data on container trade throughput, air freight and export orders.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
847
the key challenge for monetary policy at this stage is to resuscitate domestic demand to avoid any harmful effect on income and employment in the short run and potential growth over the medium term.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
193
various indicators of service sector activity, however, present a mixed picture.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
696
the second meeting of the monetary policy committee (mpc), constituted under section 45zb of the amended reserve bank of india act, 1934, was held on december 6 and 7, 2016 at the reserve bank of india, mumbai.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,016
431
second, if the general moderation of price increases in cpi excluding food and fuel continues, it will contain upside pressures on headline inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
620
vi) thus, there is enough policy space to cut the policy repo rate to correct the high real interest rate in the economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
660
if a similarly unforeseeable inflation shock were to hit the economy, i find it hard to believe that the mpc will remain accommodative.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
388
capacity utilisation saw some improvement in q2:2020-21 and a further pick-up is expected from q3 onwards.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
177
in the case of services also, pmi rose from april to june but fell in july.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
859