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gtfintechlab
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central_bank_of_the_philippines

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meanwhile, the potential for slower global economic growth due to protectionist policies in advanced economies and geopolitical tensions, along with the proposed tariffication of quantitative restrictions (qr) on rice imports, continued to be the main downside risks to inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
511
pending petition with the energy regulatory commission (erc) for a percent increase over the current overall average rate of p5.9893 per kwh.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
738
water levels in major dams continued to decline, affecting the water resource for power and irrigation supply in some parts of luzon.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
307
slower growth in government spending and investments in capital formation on the expenditure side as well as the weaker growth in manufacturing on the production side also contributed to the slowdown.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
83
in the april 2012 world economic outlook, the imf revised upward its global growth forecast for 2012 and 2013 by 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point, respectively.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
488
- at the same time, catch-up fiscal spending is expected to help sustain the growth momentum in the remainder of 2019.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
566
- treasury bill (t-bill) auction rates eased across all tenors on 31 july 2006 relative to 26 june 2006 due to strong demand for t-bills amid ample liquidity and an improving fiscal position.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
317
meanwhile, capital formation and exports continued to be weighed down by tepid global demand which was also reflected in the sustained drop in industrial output.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
244
further, the steady stream of foreign portfolio and direct investments to the country, reflecting favorable investor sentiment, as well as export earnings provided support to the peso.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
713
claims on the domestic sector grew by 11.3 percent in july from 11.1 percent in june due to the continued increase in claims on the private sector (by 14.5 percent), reflecting the sustained growth in bank lending.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
403
meanwhile, prices of some monitored vegetables rose in october following weather-related supply disturbances in producing provinces in central and northern luzon.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
357
- the overall balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook is seen to be tilted to the upside, with pending petitions for adjustments in electricity rates along with the proposed adjustment in the excise tax rates of petroleum products and the potential second-round effect on transport fares.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
674
this brought the fiscal deficit of the ng in the first eight months to p25.5 billion, 25.4 percent lower than the p34.2 billion deficit incurred during the same period last year.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
119
the imf estimates global growth in 2007 to be at 4.9 percent, lower than the 5.0 percent growth in 2006, with mature economies (united states, euro area, and japan) leading the slowdown at 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent in the previous year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
72
risks to the global growth outlook are tilted to the downside in view of tight labor markets in advanced economies as well as uncertainty on inflation and monetary policy.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
264
similarly, results of the march 2015 consensus economics inflation forecast survey for the country showed a lower mean inflation forecast for 2015 at 2.7 percent (from 2.8 percent) and steady inflation forecast for 2016 at 3.5 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
914
the highlights of the discussions during the 9 november 2017 monetary policy meeting were approved by the monetary board during its regular meeting held on 28 november 2017.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,017
359
moreover, unemployment rose to 10.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002 as against 9.8 percent in the same period a year ago.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
169
mb meeting mb meeting - the risks to future inflation are seen to remain evenly balanced for 2019 while downside risks to the outlook will dominate in 2020.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
560
- most central banks, including the us federal reserve, maintained their monetary policy settings.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
531
reserve money (rm) declined to reach p277.8 billion as of 6 february developed as banks’ liquidity flowed back to the bsp—as placements under the reverse repurchase (rrp) and special deposit accounts (sda) facilities— instead of being channeled to the private sector in the form of loans.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
174
so far, remittances and foreign direct investments are holding up.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
225
this differential was below the average of 368 basis points for a sample of countries, which have shown a general decline in lending rates as well as in benchmark rates during the review period.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
575
the highlights of the discussions of the 5 june 2008 meeting were approved by the monetary board during its regular meeting held on 17 june 2008. namely: the deputy governor for the monetary stability sector, the deputy governor for supervision and examination sector, the managing director of the treasury department, and the managing director of the monetary policy sub-sector.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,008
243
the decision of the us fed to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged following its two-day meeting on 25-26 june 2002 highlighted the fed’s assessment which maintains that “the degree of strengthening of the us economy remains uncertain”.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,002
589
g. domestic liquidity and credit conditions - domestic liquidity or m3 reached p4.2 trillion in april 2011, higher by 7.3 percent relative to the level a year earlier.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
556
the positive performance of the psei can be attributed to improved investor sentiment owing largely to the faster than-expected q3 2022 gdp growth and sustained reports of positive corporate earnings.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
677
- based on the assessment by the us climate prediction center and international research institute for climate and society (cpc/iri) as of 14 march 2024, el niño conditions continued to weaken and will likely transition to enso-neutral during april – june 2024 with chances of la niña developing by june – august 2024.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
416
additionally, higher oil prices were partly supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the us federal reserve in 2024; us plans to increase its crude stockpiles; and favorable indicators of economic activity in china.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
893
at the same time, the monetary board agreed it would continue to support non-monetary measures to address high oil prices by concerned government agencies.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,006
872
the monetary board decided to: a) maintain the overnight rrp (borrowing) rate at 3.0 percent; and b) maintain the current overnight deposit and overnight lending rates.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
883
the expansion in net foreign assets (nfa) continued to drive the growth of liquidity, even as it was lower at 17.6 percent from 19.8 percent in may.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
173
in addition, the ng was very liquid at this time (in view of the income tax period in march and april) thus, it projected no need for short-term funds.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
120
such a prospect increases not only the risks to inflation expectations but also the likelihood of second-round effects.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,006
261
meanwhile, about 1.3 mmt or 57.0 percent of the total nfa council-approved volume of importation for 2010 (2.3 mmt) have arrived as of 7 april 2010.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
304
- likewise, the growth of outstanding loans of commercial banks, net of banks’ reverse repurchase (rrp) placements with the bsp, grew at a slower pace of 14.7 percent in may from the previous month’s expansion of 19.2 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
913
for the period 1-28 may 2002, the phisix averaged 1345.65 index points, down by 42.82 index points or 3.1 percent lower than april’s average of 1388.47 index points.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,002
512
however, optimism over the delivery of vaccines has lifted market confidence, supporting improved prospects for global growth.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
973
that have been made available since the last meeting on monetary policy presented by the advisory committee, the monetary board approved unanimously the following policy measures: a.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,004
127
revenue collections increased by 12.9 percent while expenditure was higher by 14.1 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
313
however, the philippines continued to register one of the lowest real lending rates in the asian region.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
841
this represented 41.5 percent of the p279.1 billion programmed deficit for q1-q4 2012.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
901
the old unemployment definition did not consider the criterion on availability for work.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
349
the transient nature of the supply shocks as well as the overall conditions for aggregate demand and credit activity argue against monetary tightening at this time.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,004
830
this brought the january-october percent in september from 8.9 percent in august.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
156
all commodity groups registered slower price increases except for clothing, for which inflation remained steady at 3.1 percent for the past three months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
723
debt spreads also widened during the period as investors traded on a safe-haven mode, pushing yields of us treasury bonds lower while raising yields of the relatively risky emerging market bonds higher.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
322
meanwhile, the seasonally-adjusted month-on-month headline and core inflation were unchanged.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
687
the futures price curve remained in backwardation, broadly reflecting forecasts that supply would exceed demand for most of 2022 and 2023.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
376
the statement from the us fed chairman, who pledged to maintain her predecessor’s policies by scaling back stimulus in measured steps, calmed the market and tempered the rise in yields of emerging market bonds.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
573
this growth was stronger than the 3.5 percent increase reported a year earlier and was the highest growth rate recorded since the fourth quarter of 1998. grew by 6.4 percent (revised) in march 2003, a marked turnaround from the 1.1 percent (revised) decline in the previous month.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
385
however, overall growth remains largely unbalanced, with the euro area and japan experiencing more modest upturns.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
827
an increase in domestic oil prices due to an uptick in world oil prices could raise average annual cpi inflation directly by about 0.15 percentage point.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,002
755
- latest data from the national food authority (nfa) as of 11 april indicate that the country's total rice inventory stood at 1.8 million metric tons (mt), slightly lower than the previous month's level of 1.9 million mt but higher than the previous year's level of 1.5 million mt.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
721
the spot price of dubai crude oil was higher by us$4.57 per barrel in november at us$77.72 per barrel from us$73.15 per barrel in october.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
370
the acceleration in inflation was due mainly to increases in the prices of selected food items and in the prices of gasoline and other oil products.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
600
towards the end of the month, however, spreads eased on positive speculation that the us fed would intervene to spur economic growth.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
255
- the risks to the inflation outlook remain broadly balanced.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
230
the upward pressures on the power rates could be mitigated should the supreme court uphold its 15 november 2002 decision on meralco’s overcharging case.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
711
- corporate issuers continue to tap the equity and bond markets.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
877
in particular, analysts speculated that the hike in the fed’s rates would not come until august 2002.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,002
964
on a yearto-date basis, commercial vehicle sales slowed down to 17.5 percent from 21.7 percent in the comparable period last year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
771
[11] the direction of oil prices in the near term would be dictated by potential supply shock scenarios surrounding the middle east tensions and the venezuela crisis interacting with the bearish demand outlook due to the tepid pace of economic recovery of the us and other major economies.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,002
460
- the latest risk-adjusted inflation forecast for 2024 has declined to 4.2 percent from 4.4 percent in the previous meeting in november.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
111
netting out the interest payments in ng expenditures, the primary deficit amounted to ₱930.0 billion, thirty percent higher than the amount recorded in the previous year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
122
adverse weather conditions in the top wheat-exporting countries curbed the outlook for harvests this year while corn prices rose on speculation that demand from livestock producers will increase due to rising wheat prices combined with the expected decline in global wheat production.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
345
oil prices were boosted in june by the weakening of the dollar following the announcement of moody’s investors service that it may place the us government’s rating under review if there is no progress on increasing its debt limit.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
634
- the favorable inflation outlook against a positive economic background suggests that current monetary policy settings remain - various surveys continued to indicate well-contained inflation expectations over the policy horizon.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
692
the country’s top import, electronic products, surged declined slightly year-on-year to 8.2 percent in april 2006.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
22
the yields on gs in the secondary market fell across tenors given ample market liquidity, a benign inflation environment and positive sentiment following the results of the recent t-bill auction and the government’s swap of shorter-dated peso bonds with bonds due in 10 and 25 years.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
780
claims on the private sector accelerated during the month, consistent with the sustained increase of bank lending in july.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
668
the next meeting of the monetary board to discuss the monetary policy setting was scheduled on 10 april 2003.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,003
994
meanwhile, adjustments in electricity rates is the main upside risk to inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
443
- meanwhile, results of the latest asia pacific consensus forecasts as of january 2010 also showed within-target but slightly higher inflation for the philippines for 2010.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
267
- the monetary board believed that a tighter monetary policy stance will help steer inflation toward a target-consistent path over the medium term by reducing further risks to the inflation outlook, including those emanating from exchange rate volatility given the continued uncertainty in the external environment amid geopolitical tensions and the normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
701
with growth expected to improve over the policy horizon and inflows from abroad anticipated to strengthen, the board maintained its resolve to remain vigilant against inflation pressures, ready to undertake timely and preemptive monetary policy actions to safeguard price stability.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
926
- the mb also noted that core inflation remains firm.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
170
merchandise export growth for jan-oct 2006 was 16.4 percent, higher than the previous year’s 3.3 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
272
these developments form the economic backdrop for the latest weo projections by the imf, which point to a modest recovery in 2017.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
65
a commitment to long-term fiscal consolidation will help address concerns over fiscal sustainability.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,009
151
d. demand conditions - over the near term, economic recovery appears likely to continue to gain traction.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
756
this developed as the us dollar has generally weakened against the peso and other regional currencies amid fears of a us recession, which were fueled by concerns on us banks’ and funds’ exposures to the subprime mortgage market as well as the weakness in the us housing prices and employment conditions.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
939
- meanwhile, the most recent available indicators continue to depict solid growth in the economy.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
922
wage developments - the monetary board noted that wage adjustments have been implemented thus far in 2018 for regions xii, iv-a, vi, i and caraga.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
451
over the near term, the outlook for crude oil prices remains generally weighted towards the downside in line with the expected slower pace of global economic activity.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
391
nonetheless, inflation forecasts for 2016-2017 stayed close to the midpoint of the target range.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
204
growth in august, and the 0.4 percent rise in september of last year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
229
meanwhile, the growth in consumer loans decelerated to 13.4 percent from 15.6 percent in july due mainly to the slowdown in auto loans.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
299
the resulting higher interest rates along with coup’s impact on market sentiment and expectations led to a reduction in private investment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
276
- notwithstanding the recent boost in expectations, given the current global economic condition, the energy information administration almost 1.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2009.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
486
the monetary board (mb) decided to: a) maintain the bsp’s policy interest rates at 3.5 percent for the overnight rrp b) maintain the current interest rates on term rrps and rps; c) maintain the current reserve requirement ratios; and d) set the pricing of the special deposit account (sda) at 3.00 percent regardless of tenor, effective immediately, consistent with the bsp’s continuing efforts to fine‐tune the operation of its monetary policy tools.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
534
while the initial results have been encouraging, the recent policy moves need to be given more time to fully work their way through the financial system and achieve their objective of keeping domestic liquidity growth down to a more modest pace.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
978
the next meeting of the monetary board on the monetary policy stance is scheduled on the mb considered the following developments in deciding on the monetary policy stance: - price pressures eased further in august 2019 as food inflation decelerated due to lower prices of rice, corn, sugar, electricity, and petroleum.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
884
the bsp relief measures are still in place to support credit growth in the country and, at the same time, provide continued access to financial services to households and vulnerable sectors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
541
in china, recent indicators also suggest weak real sector momentum, especially in the manufacturing sector, although partly policy‐driven.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
983
this was faster than the 8.5-percent expansion recorded in february 2015.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
969
the monetary board (mb) decided to: a) maintain the bsp’s policy interest rates at 3.5 percent for the overnight rrp b) maintain the current interest rates on term rrps, rps and sda; and c) maintain the current reserve requirement ratios.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
972
outstanding loans of commercial banks including rrps also continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace of 5.9 percent relative to the month-ago expansion of 6.9 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
980
spending continued to hold up and financial conditions showed marked improvement following a rebound in the stock market.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
305
- in deciding on the stance of monetary policy, the mb also noted that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook has shifted toward the upside for 2020, but remained tilted to the downside for 2021.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
348