gtfintechlab/central_bank_of_the_philippines

sentences stringlengths 25 668	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the marginal increase was attributed to the higher prices of vegetable oil and meat, which slightly outweighed the decline in the prices of cereal, dairy, and sugar products.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	265
the conference board's consumer confidence index is based on a mail-in survey of 5,000 households, and is more focused on labor-market conditions.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,003	374
for some firms, however, growth in net income was capped by higher costs of financing, raw materials, distribution and utilities.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,005	769
h. fiscal developments - the january-may 2011 fiscal deficit was p9.5 billion, 94.1 percent lower than the p162.1 billion deficit incurred during the same period last year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	825
net intercompany borrowings by local subsidiaries with parent companies were likewise higher during the first six months of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	715
- prospects across the globe continue to be uneven.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	834
for the period 1-22 july, the peso further depreciated to average p43.38/us$1 as investors turned cautious of positive us employment data that may signal an earlier-than-expected scaling back of us fed monetary stimulus.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	417
monetary policy stance” considered by the monetary board on 11 february 2003 _bank_ _lending_ _activities_ _continued_ _to_ _improve._ _these_ _developments provide evidence that the expansionary impact of_ _the bsp’s past monetary easing is gradually working its way into_ _the real sector.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	730
meanwhile, the margin between the philippine lending rate and the benchmark 91-day t-bill rate continued to decline from its peak level of about 5.7 percentage points in october 2000.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	791
the monetary board (mb) decided to: a) increase the interest rate on the special deposit account (sda) facility by 25 basis points from 2.0 percent to 2.25 percent; b) maintain the bsp’s policy interest rates at 3.5 percent for the overnight rrp c) maintain the current interest rates on term rrps and rps; and d) maintain the current reserve requirement ratios.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	881
likewise, the volume of production index (vopi) for manufacturing increased by 2.0 percent may.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,004	752
they emphasized, however, that keeping the policy rates on hold does not represent inaction by monetary authorities to the downside risks to inflation.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,002	667
measures can be undertaken to help temper a further depreciation of the peso.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,004	880
towards the close of the month, the index moved sideways.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	187
j:\_aamb policy and minutes\highlights\2006 mb minutes\mb minutes 09-03-2006 meeting.doc the dynamics and sources of price pressures in order to help guide	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,006	535
recent favorable trends in manufacturing performance could indicate a resurgence in the industry sector.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	195
the next meeting of the monetary board on the monetary policy stance is scheduled on the mb considered the following developments in deciding on the monetary policy stance: - inflation increased in may 2019 due mainly to supply-side factors (food price movements linked to adverse weather conditions) and base effects.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	356
meanwhile, the weak global economy and the stable peso could provide a moderating effect on inflation.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	27
the jp morgan global all-industry output index accelerated in february as growth in new orders rose to a three-month high amid improved conditions in several markets and stable new export orders.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	555
increases in headline and core consumer prices continued to be muted.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	995
oil price developments - dubai crude oil prices decreased in july after rising in the first half of 2016 due mainly to global oversupply concerns largely as a result of increased us production.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	99
price pressures are expected to further dissipate in the near term following the implementation of reduced tariffs on rice, along with other non-monetary interventions that could ensure sufficient domestic food supply.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	882
over the long term and the possibility that global commodity prices could be reaching a trough.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	504
on a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis, commercial bank lending increased by directed to key production sectors of the economy.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	810
the nikkei asean manufacturing pmi fell in february, the first contraction since october 2020.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	452
developments in the utilities sector - electricity rates increased in april due to higher generation costs.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	602
this was aimed at tempering the extreme volatility of the domestic currency during the period.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	631
the recommendation to maintain the present monetary settings took into consideration the bsp’s latest assessment that the prevailing monetary settings are appropriate given current financial and economic conditions.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	410
the monetary board also pointed out that the subdued economic activity—highlighted by the slowdown in manufacturing in the third quarter as well as continued spare capacity in manufacturing and relatively modest growth in bank lending—could help ease potential supplyside pressures on inflation.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,002	321
countries and a rebound in import demand, particularly in asia.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,007	28
- the monetary board’s decision was based on its assessment that inflation is likely to remain elevated in the coming months, reflecting the impact of supply-side constraints on domestic prices of key food commodities such as meat as well as the continuing uptick in international oil prices.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	951
thereafter, inflation will stabilize and return to the midpoint of the target by q2 2024.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	630
- on 19 july 2011, the auction committee awarded in full the original issuance of 4-year t-bonds at 4.875 percent, which is 35.5 basis points lower than the highest bid rate during the last auction for a similar tenor.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	898
meanwhile, banks re-invest excess funds with the bsp under the rrp and sda facilities following large withdrawals in december, in anticipation of increased demand for liquidity for the holidays.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	456
- the climate outlook by the philippine atmospheric, geophysical, and astronomical services administration as of 24 april 2024 indicated that prevailing moderate el niño conditions have subsided, with an increased likelihood of la niña developing by h2 2024.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	447
the monetary board (mb) decided to: a) increase the bsp’s key policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.50 percent for the overnight rrp (borrowing) facility, effective 28 september 2018; and, b) adjust the interest rates on the overnight deposit and overnight lending facilities accordingly.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	499
- the fiscal deficit for 2014 was p73.1 billion, 55.4 percent lower than the deficit incurred in meanwhile, after excluding interest payments from total expenditures, the resulting primary surplus amounted to p248.1 billion, p88.7 billion or 55.7 percent higher than the level recorded in the previous year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	436
- in deciding on the stance of monetary policy, the mb also noted that the risks to the inflation outlook continue to tilt slightly toward the upside in 2020 and toward the downside in 2021.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	772
values in the makati central business district and ortigas center sustained their uptrend in q4 2006 and are expected to rise further in the next twelve months.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,007	644
the increase in the nda, in turn, was due to the sustained increase in net domestic credits along with the slower rise in the net other items account (which includes, among other things, revaluation and capital and reserve accounts as well as placements of authorized counterparties in the bsp sda facility).	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	213
however, the moderation in growth in q1 2014, particularly in the us, as well as tighter financial conditions and geopolitical tensions in the middle east and russia, could dampen the overall momentum for the rest of 2014.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	220
e. supply-side indicators developments in agriculture - the agricultural sector recovered in q4 2010, but not enough to offset the contractions in the previous quarters.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	11
- indicators suggest continued economic growth in h2 2012.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	806
the latest forecasts also show that the country’s real gdp will return to its 2019 level by q3 2022.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	249
- global prospects have improved amid vaccine rollout although headwinds remain from renewed waves and new virus variants.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	482
meanwhile, prices of refined sugar inched up in most trading centers due to increased demand during the summer season.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	389
- the imf has raised its global gdp growth forecast for 2017 by 0.1 percentage point to world economic outlook (weo) report.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	746
- the latest baseline forecasts show lower and within-target inflation path for 2017-2018.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	121
developments in the utilities sector - electricity rates of manila electric co. (meralco) inched up in february driven mainly by higher power supply prices from the wholesale electricity spot market.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	952
resistance level, reflecting investors’ optimism on account of positive seasonally-adjusted m3 declined further by 0.8 percent in february, compared to the 0.4 percent (revised) deceleration posted in the previous month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	231
- official core inflation, which excludes selected volatile food and energy items to measure underlying price pressures, increased to 3.2 percent year-on-year in november from 3.0 percent in the previous month.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	129
- consumer credit rose by 21.1 percent year-on-year in q4 2006.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	36
meanwhile, results of the consensus economics survey in november showed a slightly higher mean inflation forecast for 2013 of 2.9 percent (from 2.8 percent in october) and steady mean inflation forecast for 2014 of 3.6 percent.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,013	76
oil price developments - international crude oil prices rallied in january 2021 amid ongoing covid-19 vaccine rollout, which boosted market sentiment along with constrained production given opec+ agreement.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	41
they expressed the view that a further 25-basis point cut in the bsp’s policy rates would continue to support the country’s growth objective without endangering the inflation target for 2002.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,002	479
- the ng fiscal deficit for the period january-august 2014 was p25.9 billion, lower than the p82.6-billion deficit incurred during the same period in 2013.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	387
- meanwhile, only taiwan in asia increased its policy rates, while chile and colombia in latin america and several eastern european countries tightened monetary policy settings as well.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	96
the downward adjustment in the generation cost was on the back of lower costs from independent power producers (ipps) and wholesale electricity spot market (wesm), according to meralco.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	463
at the same time, downside risks to the economic recovery emanate from the emergence of new covid-19 variants as well as the potential tightening of global financial conditions.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	360
headline inflation decelerated further to 6.03 percent year-on-year in november 2018 from 6.68 percent in october and 6.70 percent in september.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	609
monetary board members noted that the requirements of financing the budget deficit may compel the ng to increase its domestic borrowings.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	618
in its monetary policy statement on 4 may 2004, the federal open market committee (fomc) noted that removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.”2 this hinted that the us federal reserve is not likely to raise the federal funds target immediately.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	871
meanwhile, domestic pump prices of gasoline, kerosene and diesel were reduced to reflect earlier declines in world oil prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	971
remained on the recovery track as shown by the uptrend in business investment and steady improvements in corporate profitability.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,005	82
in other parts of asia, manufacturing conditions continued to improve for the philippines as well as myanmar while the sector remained stagnant for thailand and vietnam but in contraction territory for malaysia, indonesia, and singapore.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	3
meanwhile, inflation expectations remain firmly anchored close to the midpoint of the government’s 3 percent ± 1 percentage point target over the policy horizon.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	552
the imf viewed the risks to the global growth outlook as being broadly balanced in the near term, while still being skewed to the downside over the medium term.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	355
preliminary data show that outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks decreased by 2.0 percent year-on-year in june2021following a 4.0-percent contraction in may.furthermore, latest results of the senior bank loan officers’ survey (slos) continued to reflect a net tightening of overall credit standards for both loans to businesses and consumers in q2 2021.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	19
the upward revisions for 2023 and 2024 were driven mainly by the higherthan-expected inflation outturn in january 2023, following the sharp uptick in the prices of housing rentals, electricity, and water rates as well as key food items.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	551
- global oil supply-demand outlook is mixed for 2023 and 2024.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	557
moreover, the act will enhance the financial institutions’ (fis) risk-bearing capacity and strengthen their capability to provide financial services to productive sectors of the economy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	468
however, more granular data indicate that employment quality has not yet recovered relative to pre-pandemic level as recent employment gains were mostly low-skilled and less remunerative.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	474
the negative impact of the russian-ukraine conflict on economic activity is not yet fully realized during the quarter but could become more apparent in subsequent periods.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	343
consistent with improving business and consumer sentiment and favorable funding conditions, bank lending has continued to grow at double-digit rates.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	228
meanwhile, domestic retail prices of petroleum products were raised twice in the same month following the recent uptrend in international prices and were raised anew on 1 february 2006 in line with the increase in the value added tax (vat) rate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	332
the initial p4.25 per cubic meter water rate increase will take effect in january 2003 while the remaining p2.78 per cubic meter could be implemented in 2005.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,002	2
corporate bond issuances for the period january-may 2012 reached p165.0 billion, more than double the 2011 level of p74.6 billion.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	166
- on water rates, the metropolitan waterworks and sewerage systemregulatory office (mwss-ro) approved a lower discount under the foreign currency differential adjustments (fcda) for q3 2008.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	641
- in contrast, economic activity in the euro area has remained weak.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	484
- nonetheless, there continue to be a number of risks to the inflation outlook.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,006	651
based on the latest data from the bsp, banks’ placements under the rrp window rose by p68.2 billion to reach p96.4 billion as of 19 july 2002 from p28.2 billion as of end-december 2001 while placements under the sda window amounted to p5.6 billion from zero availments during the same period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,002	782
the next meeting - on balance, the monetary board was of the view that prevailing monetary policy settings remain appropriate given the manageable inflation environment and uncertain growth outlook.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	854
transmission charge and other bill components also increased.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	902
`o` meanwhile, the slower global economic growth due to protectionist policies in advanced economies and geopolitical tensions along with the proposed reform in the rice industry involving the replacement of quantitative restrictions with tariffs and the deregulation of rice imports continue to be the main downside risks to inflation.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	1
e. supply-side indicators developments in agriculture - agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing (ahff) expanded in q1 2012, albeit at a slower pace.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	923
[5] moreover, as of 11 october 2002, the national rice inventory[6] of 1.3 million metric tons (mt) was sufficient to last for 51 days, much higher than the 15 days security benchmark for rice self-sufficiency.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,002	958
they underscored the need to continuously assess the evolving balance of risks and respond in a measured fashion to the inflation outlook in order to maintain an environment of price stability and provide support to the economy’s growth objective.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,003	809
meanwhile, the cumulative expenditures for the first nine months of disbursements in the comparable period in 2008, but lower than the q1-q3 program at p1,131.8 billion.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	180
meanwhile, higher prices of sugar indicated short-term export tightness in brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, but prospects of sufficient supply in the current 2012/13 marketing season limited the gain.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	874
the slowdown in m3 growth is also attributed to the contraction in claims on the central government which reflects the liquidity siphoned off from the system with the recent issuance of retail treasury bonds by the national government, which were deposited to the bsp.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	346
while the philippine economy continues to expand, sustained domestic spending is expected to compensate for weaker external demand.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	856
on the downside, the main risks to the outlook include the resurgence of covid-19 cases; tighter financial conditions; likelihood of substantial and persistent damage to supply potential or extended scarring, especially in emerging market and developing economies and geopolitical, trade, and technology risks.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	765
the rice import program of the government, through the nfa, could serve as safeguard against the possible adverse impact of the recent typhoons and the el niño weather phenomenon on palay production.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	975
e. supply-side indicators developments in agriculture - after growing robustly in the first half of 2011, the production outlook on agriculture could be lower in the second half due to the series of typhoons that hit the country.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	643
in particular, those consuming less than 50 kwh per month or the so-called “lifeline consumers” will not be affected by the planned increase.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,002	800
similarly, the price of the country’s credit default swaps (cds) tied to government debt declined in early february from the end-january level.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	188
similarly, the average capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing sector was broadly steady at 84.4 percent in september from 84.3 percent in august, based on the philippine statistics authority’s monthly integrated survey of selected industries (missi).	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	671
showed that the first quarter real gdp grew by only 0.2 percent, quarter-on-quarter or by 2.2 percent from the level a year ago.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	471
- the risks to the inflation outlook appear to be broadly balanced for 2021 to amid supply chain bottlenecks could pose upside risks to inflation in the near term.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	533
moreover, economic slack is likely to persist amid the significant uncertainty brought about by the detection of local transmission of the more contagious delta variant of covid-19.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	113

the marginal increase was attributed to the higher prices of vegetable oil and meat, which slightly outweighed the decline in the prices of cereal, dairy, and sugar products.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

265

the conference board's consumer confidence index is based on a mail-in survey of 5,000 households, and is more focused on labor-market conditions.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,003

374

for some firms, however, growth in net income was capped by higher costs of financing, raw materials, distribution and utilities.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,005

769

h. fiscal developments - the january-may 2011 fiscal deficit was p9.5 billion, 94.1 percent lower than the p162.1 billion deficit incurred during the same period last year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

825

net intercompany borrowings by local subsidiaries with parent companies were likewise higher during the first six months of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

715

- prospects across the globe continue to be uneven.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

834

for the period 1-22 july, the peso further depreciated to average p43.38/us$1 as investors turned cautious of positive us employment data that may signal an earlier-than-expected scaling back of us fed monetary stimulus.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

417

monetary policy stance” considered by the monetary board on 11 february 2003 _bank_ _lending_ _activities_ _continued_ _to_ _improve._ _these_ _developments provide evidence that the expansionary impact of_ _the bsp’s past monetary easing is gradually working its way into_ _the real sector.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

730

meanwhile, the margin between the philippine lending rate and the benchmark 91-day t-bill rate continued to decline from its peak level of about 5.7 percentage points in october 2000.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

791

the monetary board (mb) decided to: a) increase the interest rate on the special deposit account (sda) facility by 25 basis points from 2.0 percent to 2.25 percent; b) maintain the bsp’s policy interest rates at 3.5 percent for the overnight rrp c) maintain the current interest rates on term rrps and rps; and d) maintain the current reserve requirement ratios.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

881

likewise, the volume of production index (vopi) for manufacturing increased by 2.0 percent may.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,004

752

they emphasized, however, that keeping the policy rates on hold does not represent inaction by monetary authorities to the downside risks to inflation.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,002

667

measures can be undertaken to help temper a further depreciation of the peso.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,004

880

towards the close of the month, the index moved sideways.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

187

j:\_aamb policy and minutes\highlights\2006 mb minutes\mb minutes 09-03-2006 meeting.doc the dynamics and sources of price pressures in order to help guide

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,006

535

recent favorable trends in manufacturing performance could indicate a resurgence in the industry sector.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

195

the next meeting of the monetary board on the monetary policy stance is scheduled on the mb considered the following developments in deciding on the monetary policy stance: - inflation increased in may 2019 due mainly to supply-side factors (food price movements linked to adverse weather conditions) and base effects.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

356

meanwhile, the weak global economy and the stable peso could provide a moderating effect on inflation.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

27

the jp morgan global all-industry output index accelerated in february as growth in new orders rose to a three-month high amid improved conditions in several markets and stable new export orders.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

555

increases in headline and core consumer prices continued to be muted.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

995

oil price developments - dubai crude oil prices decreased in july after rising in the first half of 2016 due mainly to global oversupply concerns largely as a result of increased us production.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

99

price pressures are expected to further dissipate in the near term following the implementation of reduced tariffs on rice, along with other non-monetary interventions that could ensure sufficient domestic food supply.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

882

over the long term and the possibility that global commodity prices could be reaching a trough.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

504

on a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis, commercial bank lending increased by directed to key production sectors of the economy.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

810

the nikkei asean manufacturing pmi fell in february, the first contraction since october 2020.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

452

developments in the utilities sector - electricity rates increased in april due to higher generation costs.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

602

this was aimed at tempering the extreme volatility of the domestic currency during the period.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

631

the recommendation to maintain the present monetary settings took into consideration the bsp’s latest assessment that the prevailing monetary settings are appropriate given current financial and economic conditions.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

410

the monetary board also pointed out that the subdued economic activity—highlighted by the slowdown in manufacturing in the third quarter as well as continued spare capacity in manufacturing and relatively modest growth in bank lending—could help ease potential supplyside pressures on inflation.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,002

321

countries and a rebound in import demand, particularly in asia.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,007

28

- the monetary board’s decision was based on its assessment that inflation is likely to remain elevated in the coming months, reflecting the impact of supply-side constraints on domestic prices of key food commodities such as meat as well as the continuing uptick in international oil prices.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

951

thereafter, inflation will stabilize and return to the midpoint of the target by q2 2024.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

630

- on 19 july 2011, the auction committee awarded in full the original issuance of 4-year t-bonds at 4.875 percent, which is 35.5 basis points lower than the highest bid rate during the last auction for a similar tenor.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

898

meanwhile, banks re-invest excess funds with the bsp under the rrp and sda facilities following large withdrawals in december, in anticipation of increased demand for liquidity for the holidays.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

456

- the climate outlook by the philippine atmospheric, geophysical, and astronomical services administration as of 24 april 2024 indicated that prevailing moderate el niño conditions have subsided, with an increased likelihood of la niña developing by h2 2024.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

447

the monetary board (mb) decided to: a) increase the bsp’s key policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.50 percent for the overnight rrp (borrowing) facility, effective 28 september 2018; and, b) adjust the interest rates on the overnight deposit and overnight lending facilities accordingly.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

499

- the fiscal deficit for 2014 was p73.1 billion, 55.4 percent lower than the deficit incurred in meanwhile, after excluding interest payments from total expenditures, the resulting primary surplus amounted to p248.1 billion, p88.7 billion or 55.7 percent higher than the level recorded in the previous year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

436

- in deciding on the stance of monetary policy, the mb also noted that the risks to the inflation outlook continue to tilt slightly toward the upside in 2020 and toward the downside in 2021.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

772

values in the makati central business district and ortigas center sustained their uptrend in q4 2006 and are expected to rise further in the next twelve months.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,007

644

the increase in the nda, in turn, was due to the sustained increase in net domestic credits along with the slower rise in the net other items account (which includes, among other things, revaluation and capital and reserve accounts as well as placements of authorized counterparties in the bsp sda facility).

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

213

however, the moderation in growth in q1 2014, particularly in the us, as well as tighter financial conditions and geopolitical tensions in the middle east and russia, could dampen the overall momentum for the rest of 2014.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

220

e. supply-side indicators developments in agriculture - the agricultural sector recovered in q4 2010, but not enough to offset the contractions in the previous quarters.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

11

- indicators suggest continued economic growth in h2 2012.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

806

the latest forecasts also show that the country’s real gdp will return to its 2019 level by q3 2022.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

249

- global prospects have improved amid vaccine rollout although headwinds remain from renewed waves and new virus variants.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

482

meanwhile, prices of refined sugar inched up in most trading centers due to increased demand during the summer season.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

389

- the imf has raised its global gdp growth forecast for 2017 by 0.1 percentage point to world economic outlook (weo) report.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

746

- the latest baseline forecasts show lower and within-target inflation path for 2017-2018.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

121

developments in the utilities sector - electricity rates of manila electric co. (meralco) inched up in february driven mainly by higher power supply prices from the wholesale electricity spot market.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

952

resistance level, reflecting investors’ optimism on account of positive seasonally-adjusted m3 declined further by 0.8 percent in february, compared to the 0.4 percent (revised) deceleration posted in the previous month.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

231

- official core inflation, which excludes selected volatile food and energy items to measure underlying price pressures, increased to 3.2 percent year-on-year in november from 3.0 percent in the previous month.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

129

- consumer credit rose by 21.1 percent year-on-year in q4 2006.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

36

meanwhile, results of the consensus economics survey in november showed a slightly higher mean inflation forecast for 2013 of 2.9 percent (from 2.8 percent in october) and steady mean inflation forecast for 2014 of 3.6 percent.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,013

76

oil price developments - international crude oil prices rallied in january 2021 amid ongoing covid-19 vaccine rollout, which boosted market sentiment along with constrained production given opec+ agreement.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

41

they expressed the view that a further 25-basis point cut in the bsp’s policy rates would continue to support the country’s growth objective without endangering the inflation target for 2002.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,002

479

- the ng fiscal deficit for the period january-august 2014 was p25.9 billion, lower than the p82.6-billion deficit incurred during the same period in 2013.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

387

- meanwhile, only taiwan in asia increased its policy rates, while chile and colombia in latin america and several eastern european countries tightened monetary policy settings as well.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

96

the downward adjustment in the generation cost was on the back of lower costs from independent power producers (ipps) and wholesale electricity spot market (wesm), according to meralco.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

463

at the same time, downside risks to the economic recovery emanate from the emergence of new covid-19 variants as well as the potential tightening of global financial conditions.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

360

headline inflation decelerated further to 6.03 percent year-on-year in november 2018 from 6.68 percent in october and 6.70 percent in september.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

609

monetary board members noted that the requirements of financing the budget deficit may compel the ng to increase its domestic borrowings.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,002

618

in its monetary policy statement on 4 may 2004, the federal open market committee (fomc) noted that removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.”2 this hinted that the us federal reserve is not likely to raise the federal funds target immediately.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,004

871

meanwhile, domestic pump prices of gasoline, kerosene and diesel were reduced to reflect earlier declines in world oil prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

971

remained on the recovery track as shown by the uptrend in business investment and steady improvements in corporate profitability.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,005

82

in other parts of asia, manufacturing conditions continued to improve for the philippines as well as myanmar while the sector remained stagnant for thailand and vietnam but in contraction territory for malaysia, indonesia, and singapore.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

3

meanwhile, inflation expectations remain firmly anchored close to the midpoint of the government’s 3 percent ± 1 percentage point target over the policy horizon.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

552

the imf viewed the risks to the global growth outlook as being broadly balanced in the near term, while still being skewed to the downside over the medium term.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

355

preliminary data show that outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks decreased by 2.0 percent year-on-year in june2021following a 4.0-percent contraction in may.furthermore, latest results of the senior bank loan officers’ survey (slos) continued to reflect a net tightening of overall credit standards for both loans to businesses and consumers in q2 2021.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

19

the upward revisions for 2023 and 2024 were driven mainly by the higherthan-expected inflation outturn in january 2023, following the sharp uptick in the prices of housing rentals, electricity, and water rates as well as key food items.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

551

- global oil supply-demand outlook is mixed for 2023 and 2024.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

557

moreover, the act will enhance the financial institutions’ (fis) risk-bearing capacity and strengthen their capability to provide financial services to productive sectors of the economy.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

468

however, more granular data indicate that employment quality has not yet recovered relative to pre-pandemic level as recent employment gains were mostly low-skilled and less remunerative.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

474

the negative impact of the russian-ukraine conflict on economic activity is not yet fully realized during the quarter but could become more apparent in subsequent periods.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

343

consistent with improving business and consumer sentiment and favorable funding conditions, bank lending has continued to grow at double-digit rates.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

228

meanwhile, domestic retail prices of petroleum products were raised twice in the same month following the recent uptrend in international prices and were raised anew on 1 february 2006 in line with the increase in the value added tax (vat) rate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

332

the initial p4.25 per cubic meter water rate increase will take effect in january 2003 while the remaining p2.78 per cubic meter could be implemented in 2005.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,002

2

corporate bond issuances for the period january-may 2012 reached p165.0 billion, more than double the 2011 level of p74.6 billion.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

166

- on water rates, the metropolitan waterworks and sewerage systemregulatory office (mwss-ro) approved a lower discount under the foreign currency differential adjustments (fcda) for q3 2008.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

641

- in contrast, economic activity in the euro area has remained weak.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

484

- nonetheless, there continue to be a number of risks to the inflation outlook.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,006

651

based on the latest data from the bsp, banks’ placements under the rrp window rose by p68.2 billion to reach p96.4 billion as of 19 july 2002 from p28.2 billion as of end-december 2001 while placements under the sda window amounted to p5.6 billion from zero availments during the same period.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,002

782

the next meeting - on balance, the monetary board was of the view that prevailing monetary policy settings remain appropriate given the manageable inflation environment and uncertain growth outlook.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

854

transmission charge and other bill components also increased.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

902

`o` meanwhile, the slower global economic growth due to protectionist policies in advanced economies and geopolitical tensions along with the proposed reform in the rice industry involving the replacement of quantitative restrictions with tariffs and the deregulation of rice imports continue to be the main downside risks to inflation.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

1

e. supply-side indicators developments in agriculture - agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing (ahff) expanded in q1 2012, albeit at a slower pace.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

923

[5] moreover, as of 11 october 2002, the national rice inventory[6] of 1.3 million metric tons (mt) was sufficient to last for 51 days, much higher than the 15 days security benchmark for rice self-sufficiency.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,002

958

they underscored the need to continuously assess the evolving balance of risks and respond in a measured fashion to the inflation outlook in order to maintain an environment of price stability and provide support to the economy’s growth objective.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,003

809

meanwhile, the cumulative expenditures for the first nine months of disbursements in the comparable period in 2008, but lower than the q1-q3 program at p1,131.8 billion.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

180

meanwhile, higher prices of sugar indicated short-term export tightness in brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, but prospects of sufficient supply in the current 2012/13 marketing season limited the gain.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

874

the slowdown in m3 growth is also attributed to the contraction in claims on the central government which reflects the liquidity siphoned off from the system with the recent issuance of retail treasury bonds by the national government, which were deposited to the bsp.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

346

while the philippine economy continues to expand, sustained domestic spending is expected to compensate for weaker external demand.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

856

on the downside, the main risks to the outlook include the resurgence of covid-19 cases; tighter financial conditions; likelihood of substantial and persistent damage to supply potential or extended scarring, especially in emerging market and developing economies and geopolitical, trade, and technology risks.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

765

the rice import program of the government, through the nfa, could serve as safeguard against the possible adverse impact of the recent typhoons and the el niño weather phenomenon on palay production.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,002

975

e. supply-side indicators developments in agriculture - after growing robustly in the first half of 2011, the production outlook on agriculture could be lower in the second half due to the series of typhoons that hit the country.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

643

in particular, those consuming less than 50 kwh per month or the so-called “lifeline consumers” will not be affected by the planned increase.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,002

800

similarly, the price of the country’s credit default swaps (cds) tied to government debt declined in early february from the end-january level.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

188

similarly, the average capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing sector was broadly steady at 84.4 percent in september from 84.3 percent in august, based on the philippine statistics authority’s monthly integrated survey of selected industries (missi).

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

671

showed that the first quarter real gdp grew by only 0.2 percent, quarter-on-quarter or by 2.2 percent from the level a year ago.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

471

- the risks to the inflation outlook appear to be broadly balanced for 2021 to amid supply chain bottlenecks could pose upside risks to inflation in the near term.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

533

moreover, economic slack is likely to persist amid the significant uncertainty brought about by the detection of local transmission of the more contagious delta variant of covid-19.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

113