id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ae087ab0 | How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy? | quantity estimation | 4 | 2023-10-25T00:00:00 | 2023-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.6412 |
3a5f156e | When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives? | timeframe prediction | 2023-10-25 | 2023-10-25T00:00:00 | 2023-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.5396 |
0506ae69 | Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election? | Boolean question | no | 2023-10-20T00:00:00 | 2023-10-06T00:00:00 | 0.5014 |
bf05564e | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 2023-10-08T00:00:00 | 0.6169 |
b61897e0 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023? | quantity estimation | 72 | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 2023-10-08T00:00:00 | 0.607 |
592d53ce | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 2023-10-09T00:00:00 | 0.7178 |
73a3eb0e | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Boolean question | no | 2023-12-18T00:00:00 | 2023-10-11T00:00:00 | 0.6918 |
8aaf1eae | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-09T00:00:00 | 2023-10-12T00:00:00 | 0.5995 |
ce359541 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2023-10-13T00:00:00 | 0.729 |
88b2d938 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-10-25T00:00:00 | 2023-10-16T00:00:00 | 0.5066 |
cee130f3 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2023-10-16T00:00:00 | 0.7137 |
77dbc3a7 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 2023-10-17T00:00:00 | 0.7282 |
60dfee98 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-10-31T00:00:00 | 2023-10-19T00:00:00 | 0.5502 |
df8cfb93 | Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election? | Boolean question | no | 2023-11-17T00:00:00 | 2023-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.4296 |
b14ddad0 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-02T00:00:00 | 2023-10-26T00:00:00 | 0.707 |
395bead7 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 2023-10-26T00:00:00 | 0.7189 |
ab584e87 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-11-18T00:00:00 | 2023-11-01T00:00:00 | 0.5405 |
e75773f7 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 2023-11-01T00:00:00 | 0.72 |
228a6b22 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-10T00:00:00 | 2023-11-06T00:00:00 | 0.7063 |
39afda35 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-11-21T00:00:00 | 2023-11-09T00:00:00 | 0.4205 |
07c34d32 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2024-05-31T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.8644 |
f459455d | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-31T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.7179 |
cf5144f8 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.5782 |
144aee77 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.7129 |
fb378863 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.725 |
04b9e30e | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-31T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.7101 |
8337a953 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.7273 |
fc401161 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2023-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.5694 |
1ed18d09 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | Boolean question | no | 2023-12-01T00:00:00 | 2023-11-14T00:00:00 | 0.5957 |
dfb8da66 | When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin? | timeframe prediction | above_upper_bound | 2023-12-16T00:00:00 | 2023-11-15T00:00:00 | 0.7811 |
e6b8b479 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-03-01T00:00:00 | 2023-11-16T00:00:00 | 0.7259 |
b2a2070c | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-03-07T00:00:00 | 2023-11-20T00:00:00 | 0.5514 |
79a2e37c | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-11-28T00:00:00 | 2023-11-22T00:00:00 | 0.5099 |
4ec31b3c | Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-12-04T00:00:00 | 2023-11-29T00:00:00 | 0.7 |
7916f8ab | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2024-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-12-01T00:00:00 | 0.8706 |
98fcab50 | Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 2023-12-13T00:00:00 | 0.452 |
947e651e | Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-02T00:00:00 | 2023-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.7119 |
68cb6252 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2023-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.6927 |
01cd4d78 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-12-15T00:00:00 | 2023-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.5303 |
3e487fa0 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-12-26T00:00:00 | 2023-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.4248 |
be3a6c53 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-11-06T00:00:00 | 2023-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.7211 |
afbe75b2 | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-15T00:00:00 | 2023-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.5295 |
a4572f86 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI's Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.6538 |
67b20661 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 2023-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.7234 |
b5bdfde7 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.7246 |
c423a556 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.7014 |
ad62bd00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5979 |
8eaa334e | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-12-23T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5876 |
c109df3c | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6531 |
b9d143fa | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.7106 |
00f01d51 | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.7266 |
b10f3012 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.7175 |
4e1943b3 | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.603 |
1f3749aa | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-07T00:00:00 | 2023-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6969 |
43f3b378 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.7281 |
87e7857d | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Boolean question | no | 2024-07-22T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.6568 |
ff8f1524 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.6811 |
5b9690e5 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-04T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.7013 |
e20f702a | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.2767 |
03881a14 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.527 |
a0a1012c | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-06-28T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.5772 |
c24e279b | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-03-19T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.5136 |
3405ecaf | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.7239 |
9c5b9976 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-10-06T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.1651 |
ba0ba2b0 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-10-13T00:00:00 | 2023-12-22T00:00:00 | 0.4662 |
7c5267a5 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.6844 |
61896188 | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Boolean question | no | 2024-03-06T00:00:00 | 2024-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.4347 |
6d4c2660 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-01-26T00:00:00 | 2024-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.4894 |
176ef0c5 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-16T00:00:00 | 2024-01-03T00:00:00 | 0.6796 |
575b8f9f | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | timeframe prediction | 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-14T00:00:00 | 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.5699 |
20cd05ae | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-02-24T00:00:00 | 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.3051 |
b5a5ce24 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-16T00:00:00 | 2024-01-10T00:00:00 | 0.3781 |
d8e25383 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-03-05T00:00:00 | 2024-01-15T00:00:00 | 0.693 |
85e1be88 | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-29T00:00:00 | 2024-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.5865 |
1accb1d3 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Boolean question | no | 2024-04-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.6199 |
5e3851e6 | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | quantity estimation | 22 | 2024-04-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-30T00:00:00 | 0.5747 |
035fd496 | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | quantity estimation | 60 | 2024-03-02T00:00:00 | 2024-02-03T00:00:00 | 0.6178 |
678ea456 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Boolean question | no | 2024-03-15T00:00:00 | 2024-02-06T00:00:00 | 0.7056 |
4fa91e72 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-03-11T00:00:00 | 2024-02-08T00:00:00 | 0.3201 |
bd054361 | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-02-28T00:00:00 | 2024-02-09T00:00:00 | 0.4789 |
2a0040cd | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Boolean question | no | 2024-03-13T00:00:00 | 2024-02-14T00:00:00 | 0.5708 |
50cb9ff8 | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-04-04T00:00:00 | 2024-02-14T00:00:00 | 0.5806 |
53aab62e | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-03-06T00:00:00 | 2024-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.5479 |
6bf254ba | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-03-29T00:00:00 | 2024-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.7018 |
54574e8b | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-03-11T00:00:00 | 2024-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.4702 |
0bb08169 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-03-11T00:00:00 | 2024-02-23T00:00:00 | 0.6516 |
37c9f5d6 | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel "M/V Rubymar" prior to April 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-03-02T00:00:00 | 2024-02-27T00:00:00 | 0.4918 |
00e7b816 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-07T00:00:00 | 2024-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.6076 |
d8122ef1 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | quantity estimation | 8010000000 | 2024-03-21T00:00:00 | 2024-02-29T00:00:00 | 0.4425 |
97206627 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-03-14T00:00:00 | 2024-03-05T00:00:00 | 0.6998 |
f736bb69 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-04-24T00:00:00 | 2024-03-08T00:00:00 | 0.5201 |
559cf7d2 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | quantity estimation | 193 | 2024-04-04T00:00:00 | 2024-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.5646 |
f12c0733 | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | quantity estimation | 269 | 2024-04-15T00:00:00 | 2024-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.6186 |
0765eb14 | What will be the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024? | quantity estimation | 238 | 2024-04-16T00:00:00 | 2024-04-08T00:00:00 | 0.6526 |
7b65c3c8 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | quantity estimation | 179725 | 2024-05-17T00:00:00 | 2024-04-09T00:00:00 | 0.4891 |
c3313311 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | quantity estimation | 47 | 2024-06-21T00:00:00 | 2024-04-09T00:00:00 | 0.4718 |
e61b703f | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-05-13T00:00:00 | 2024-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.5949 |
0e502a33 | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States for March 2024? | quantity estimation | 8488 | 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 2024-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.5055 |
3dc175a5 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2024-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.7062 |
cb365b24 | How many tornadoes will there be in the US in April 2024? | quantity estimation | above_upper_bound | 2024-05-03T00:00:00 | 2024-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.517 |
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