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https://www.bis.org/review/r250311e.htm | 2025-03-10T00:00:00 | Paolo Angelini: Innovation and innovation financing in Europe | Welcome address by Mr Paolo Angelini, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the conference on "Financing growth and innovation in Europe: economic and policy challenges", jointly organised by the Bank of Italy and the Florence School of Banking and Finance, Fiesole, 10 March 2025. | Innovation and innovation financing in Europe
Paolo Angelini
Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy
Welcome address at the conference on "Financing Growth and Innovation in
Europe: Economic and Policy Challenges", jointly organized by the Bank of Italy
and the Florence School of Banking and Finance
Fiesole, 10-11 March 2025
1. Introduction
Good morning, and welcome to today's Conference on "Financing Growth and Innovation
in Europe: Economic and Policy Challenges" jointly organised by the Florence School of
Banking and Finance (FBF) of the European University Institute and Banca d'Italia.
In my talk I will outline some key aspects of innovation and innovation financing in the
European bank-dominated financial landscape. I will then briefly discuss a few selected
initiatives within the EU's recently announced Competitiveness Compass, which aims to
strengthen Europe's competitive position.
2. Some facts about innovation and the financial system in Europe
Europe is struggling to keep pace with the most dynamic countries, the United States
above all, mainly because of low productivity growth.1 Innovation is one of the key drivers
of productivity. Recalling some facts can help frame the issue.
Fact #1: The EU is characterized by a relatively weak innovation performance
- a feature that I shall refer to as the "EU innovation gap", borrowing terminology from
the Commission Competitiveness Compass.2 To be sure, this is a blunt summary of a
nuanced reality. Historically, Europe has had a good track record at generating new
ideas. For instance, it produces almost one-fifth of the top 10 percent most cited STEM
publications, as much as the US. Likewise, about one third of patent applications to the
European Patent Office (EPO) comes from EU residents.3 However, these shares have
been declining over the last decade. Ground was lost relative to China and, for patents,
also relative to the US (Figure 1.a, b).
Moreover, the share of European patents in information and communication technologies,
areas with high growth potential, is relatively small, whereas it is relatively large in mature
fields, such as transport and civil engineering. Further, challenges persist in creating
an integrated EU market for ideas: two thirds of commercialized patents registered by
European universities or research institutions include a partner from the same country,
signalling a still strong home bias. Other indicators of innovation, such as R&D spending,
confirm this picture (Figure 2).
These considerations suggest that a search for the root causes of the EU innovation gap
should not be limited to the financial aspects; there is something deeper than finance
going on. But let me focus on finance, as this is the topic of the conference.
Fact #2: The low investment in innovation in Europe is certainly not due to insufficient
domestic savings. European households' saving rate is structurally higher than that of
their US counterparts,4 and every year about €300 billion of savings from Europeans
are invested in markets outside the EU (this is the mirror image of the current account
surplus characterizing the EU).
Fact #3: The European financial system appears to be relatively less well-equipped to
finance innovative, high-risk investment.5 Innovative projects mainly rely on risk capital
provided via self-financing or specialized investors, because debt, especially bank
lending, is less suitable for such projects, due to their high risk and to the misalignment
of incentives between financiers and entrepreneurs. But in the main EU economies, the
banking sector has historically had a predominant share in the financial system (Figure 3),
at the expense of the share of institutional investors (such as insurance companies and
pension funds).6 The problem is compounded by the gradual growth of investments in
intangibles (e.g. software, intellectual property, and patents) as a share of total corporate
investment in many advanced economies (Figure 4): these assets are not an ideal collateral
for bank loans.
3
The EPO data are affected by a home bias towards European applicants. However, looking at the
OECD's Triadic Patent Families, a database that includes patents filed simultaneously at the EPO, the
Japan Patent Office (JPO) and the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), the overall
messages illustrated in Figure 1 remain broadly unaltered.
4
Over the last decade the average saving rate has been 13 percent in the EU versus 7 percent in the US.
5
See C. Lagarde, Follow the money: channelling savings into investment and innovation in Europe,
34th European Banking Congress: "Out of the Comfort Zone: Europe and the New World Order",
Frankfurt am Main, 22 November 2024.
6
The different institutional setup of social security and pension systems can help explain the difference
in the structure of the EU and US financial systems. In the US, workers' social security contributions are
transferred to pension funds investing in long term assets, whereas most European pension systems
still rely on public pay-as-you-go social security systems, which do not need a well-developed financial
system to function, as money from current contributions is used to pay for current retirees.
Risk-sharing mechanisms like securitization could help banks play an important role in
financing innovation. In fact, banks could develop skills in screening innovative start-ups,
originate the relationship and, via securitization, transfer the credit risk to other investors
better equipped to handle it. But following the regulatory revision in the aftermath of
the Global Financial Crisis, the European securitization market has remained subdued
compared to the US and other countries (Figure 5).7
Household preferences may play a role. According to financial account data, at
end2023 cash and deposits accounted for 33 percent of total financial assets in the euro
area, against a mere 12 per cent in the US (Figure 6). For equity the figures are reversed,
with euro area at 24 per cent (only 4 percent listed), against 39 in the US (26 percent
listed). These figures suggest a relatively low risk appetite among EU households, and
indeed, survey evidence confirms this hypothesis.8 High risk aversion can negatively
affect the flow of resources to firm financing, both directly - via reduced demand for
equity and debt instruments - and indirectly - via prudent investment mandates given
to institutional investors.
Fact #4: In the EU venture capital (VC) funds, the intermediaries more oriented to finance
innovation, are relatively underdeveloped.9 The EU lags behind the US and various other
advanced economies (Figure 7). The lack of VC in the EU is felt especially in the later
stages of firms' lifecycle, as successful start-ups generally need increasing amounts of
capital to grow into large companies.
This gap can be explained by several factors. In part it reflects some of the
abovementioned characteristics of the EU economy, including the relative underdevelopment
of institutional investors and households' low risk appetite. Moreover, the propensity of
institutional investors to invest in VC is significantly lower in the EU than in the US; low
familiarity with the asset class, high costs of due diligence, regulatory restrictions are
among the factors frequently identified to explain this gap.10 Fragmentation of the EU
7
In Europe banks rely much more than in the US on the covered bonds market. While from the bank's
funding perspective this market's role is not that different from the securitization one, the assets
eligible for backing the covered bonds are typically low-risk (loans to public administrations and retail
mortgages).
8
K. Bekhtiar, P. Fessler and P. Lindner, 2019, Risky assets in Europe and the US: risk vulnerability, risk
aversion and economic environment, ECB Working Paper Series No 2270, find that more than 70
percent of households in the euro area state that they are not willing to take any financial risks, versus
below 40 percent for the United States.
9
Several studies show that VC investment fosters innovation and thus increases productivity growth.
See T. Hellmann and M. Puri, 2000, The interaction between product market and financing strategy:
the role of venture capital, Review of Financial Studies, 13, 959-984. S. Kortum and J. Lerner, 2000,
Assessing the impact of venture capital on innovation, RAND Journal of Economics, 31, 674-692. Venture
capital funds have often been involved in the financing of very successful start-ups. This has been the
case, for example, for the 6 main listed companies by market capitalization in the USA (F. Panetta,
Considerazioni finali sul 2023, 31 May 2024). Venture debt may also play a role, in combination with
equity financing, in periods between funding rounds.
10
N. Arnold, G. Claveres, and J. Frie, 2024, Stepping Up Venture Capital to Finance Innovation in Europe,
IMF Working Paper no. 146. EIF, 2023, VC Survey 2023: Market sentiment, scale-up financing and
human capital, EIF Working Paper no. 93.
financial markets is another factor, as it makes it costly to invest in different EU countries,
limiting VC funds' growth opportunities, exit options and scale.
The role of VC and the characteristics of the industry are among the topics of the
conference. The discussion could help us understand the relative importance of these
and other factors, and to identify corrective measures.
Fact #5: While still small, the EU VC industry has grown significantly over the last decade,
driven by initiatives taken by public sector operators. The experience of various countries
show that public investment is crucial to venture capital expansion.
In the US, government support for venture capital began in the 1960s with the Small
Business Investment Company (SBIC) initiative. Growth surged in the 1970s and 80s,
as economic expansion and pension fund deregulation drove higher venture capital
allocations.11 In Sweden, as part of a comprehensive reform of the financial system, the
government's effort to stimulate venture capital was followed by a development of the
sector in the 1980s.12 A similar pattern can be observed in France and Germany during
the early 2010s and, more recently, in Italy (Figure 8).13
A common thread running through these examples is the role of the government for
the establishment and development of the VC ecosystem. The government can play
an important role to get the industry started by acting as an anchor investor to signal
confidence and bring in private investors. At the same time, public intervention is no
guarantee of success; it needs to be carefully designed and fine-tuned as the industry
progresses, going beyond simply supplying capital.14
3. Recent EU initiatives to tackle the innovation gap
The above considerations suggest that, to make the EU financial system more conducive
to innovation, a mix of private initiatives, regulatory reforms and public intervention is
probably necessary, and that successful policies should address all the obstacles to the
emergence of a thriving innovation ecosystem, not just the financial ones.
11
The 'prudent man' rule revision in 1979 allowed private pension funds to diversify into venture capital,
previously considered too risky. The later influx of public and global pension funds resulted in a
substantial expansion of the US venture capital market. See J. Lerner and R. Nanda, 2020, Venture
Capital's Role in Financing Innovation: What We Know and How Much We Still Need to Learn, Journal
of Economic Perspectives, vol. 34 (3), 237-61.
12
J. Lerner and J. Tåg, 2013, Institutions and venture capital, Industrial and Corporate Change, vol. 22 (1),
153-182.
13
In France and Germany developments were spearheaded by the Banque publique d'investissement
(BPI) and the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), in the order. In Italy a similar role was played
by CDP Venture Capital SGR, an asset manager controlled by the government that invests public as
well as private funds. See R. Gallo, F. Signoretti, I. Supino, E. Sette, P. Cantatore, and M. Fabbri, 2025.
The Italian Venture Capital market, Questioni di Economia e Finanza, forthcoming.
14
J. Lerner, Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Why Public Efforts to Boost Entrepreneurship and Venture
Capital Have Failed - and What to Do About It. Princeton University Press, 2009.
Europe has been moving in this direction. Results, however, have been mixed. The Capital
Markets Union (CMU) agenda, launched in 2015 to address the fragmentation of the
EU capital markets, has faced headwinds, due to the inherent difficulty of the project
(a seamless EU capital market would require substantial harmonization of corporate and
insolvency laws, fiscal regimes, disclosure practices and accounting standards across
EU member states, which are a hurdle to cross-border operations and investment).
Building on the Draghi and the Letta Reports,15 the Commission recently published
the Compass, a document that outlines the strategy it intends to pursue to boost
competitiveness in EU. The document focuses on three core areas - one of which is
about closing the innovation gap - complemented by five horizontal "enablers". Figure 9
attempts a synoptic look at the Compass, suggesting that the innovation issue is spread
over all the three core areas as well the horizontal enablers.
The Compass includes the outline of a "Savings and Investments Union (SIU)", an attempt
to revamp the CMU, but more focused on mobilizing private finances, including those of
institutional investors. It also features a plan to introduce a so-called "28th regime", a new
EU-wide "legal statute" for innovative companies that would include relevant aspects
of corporate law, insolvency, labour, and tax law, and would simplify applicable rules,
reduce the costs of failure, and facilitate foreign and cross-border investment.16
The Compass also announces a review of the EU budget framework to concentrate
resources on the strategic priorities. These proposals include the Tech EU investment
programme to support disruptive innovation, and the European Competitiveness Fund
to foster strategic technologies (from artificial intelligence to space, from clean tech
to bio-tech sectors, etc.). Moreover, the Commission intends to expand the scope of
existing financing programmes, such as those of the European Investment Bank, to
crowd in private investments and increase cooperation and synergies with the activities
of national promotional banks.
Following suggestions recently advanced by various commentators, the Commission
reaffirms the intent to promote the EU's securitisation market17; it also emphasizes the
need to develop an EU VC market, but does not give details on possible specific initiatives.
All in all, then, the Compass covers a wide range of topics, and illustrates relatively high
level principles and indications. A meaningful assessment of the initiatives announced
will be possible only once they are fleshed out in greater detail. With this caveat, let me
make a few considerations on few selected issues.18
The idea of a 28th regime is not entirely new. The Commission has been promoting a
harmonized set of corporate rules, alternative to national ones, since the 1970s. Since
2004 European companies with a minimum subscribed capital of 120,000 euros can
adopt the statute of the "societas europaea". However, this initiative has not achieved the
expected success, also because the EU legislation extensively referred to Member States'
laws to regulate key aspects of corporate life.19 De facto, what was pushed out the door
came back through the window.
Differently from the initiatives taken so far, however, the 28th regime proposed in the
Compass focuses only on innovative companies. Such narrow focus on companies with
relatively homogeneous characteristics and investor needs could facilitate the creation
of an appropriate legal framework. The initiative should be accompanied by greater
regulatory harmonization in selected industries, to grant new innovative firms the
portability of certifications and the passporting of authorisations across Member States;20
also, it could be supported by a greater specialisation of courts and a more centralised
judicial system at the national level.
In light of the past experience, the success of the proposal will depend on the ability to
reach a political agreement over a clear and comprehensive legal framework, capable of
meeting the interests of entrepreneurs and investors in innovative companies. Referrals
to national laws should be minimized to reduce the risk of divergences, which may also
result from varying courts' interpretations.
The idea to concentrate resources on Europe's strategic objectives is also welcome. In
particular, the initiatives aimed at enhancing the role of public EU funds could help address
the fragmentation of EU private capital markets and provide incentives to increase
crossborder investments in high-risk projects.
The Commission's emphasis on the need to restart the securitization market is welcome
as well. The importance of this instrument goes beyond the innovation gap. Targeted
amendments to the prudential framework (e.g. the revision of the so-called P factor)
could incentivise supply without jeopardizing the soundness and resilience of the
market. Policies should also focus on the demand side of the market, favouring a greater
involvement of insurers and pension funds.
Two final overarching points. First, the Compass identifies the simplification of the
regulatory and administrative framework as one of the five "horizontal enablers"
necessary to boost EU competitiveness across all sectors.21 This is a welcome (although
belated) step, but the EU framework has been built over a number of years, and is very
complex; the list of initiatives that the Commission intends to adopt is very long. The
risk is that speed might come at the expense of quality, resulting - paradoxically - in yet
more complexity of the framework. This would not be conducive to better investment
decisions.
Second, the Compass maintains a conservative position on financial resources, notably
omitting proposals to increase EU funds. The proposal to issue a European safe asset is
not considered. While this proposal remains controversial, recent events make the case
for it more and more compelling, as the supranational dimension of the provision of
fundamental public goods in Europe becomes evident.22
According to the Compass, instead, finance for the projects has to come from national
budgets, via tweaks to the state aid framework. This approach is likely to suffer from
limitations already seen at work in previous occasions: in particular, difficulties to
coordinate individual spending programs into coherent EU-level projects and lack of
level playing field for countries with different fiscal headroom.
Let me conclude by thanking all participants, speakers and panelists for their contribution,
as well as the organising committee for their efforts for the success of this event.
FIGURES
Figures
Figures
Figure 1
Figure Indicators 1 - Indicators of innovation of innovation performance performance
(percentage points)
(percentage points)
Figure 1 - Indicators of innovation performance
(a) Share of European Patent Office applications (b) Share of publications in top STEM journals,
(percentage points)
(a) Share of European Patent Office applications (b) Share of publications in top STEM journals, per country
per country of residence of the applicant per country of residence of the author
per country of residence of the applicant of residence of the author
(a) Share of European Patent Office applications (b) Share of publications in top STEM journals, per country
per country of residence of the applicant of residence of the author
Source: panel (a): European Patents Office; panel (b): OECD.
Source: panel (a): European Patents Office; panel (b): OECD.
Source: panel (a): European Patents Office; panel (b): OECD.
Figure 2 - Gross domestic spending in R&D as a ratio to GDP
Figure 2
(percentage points)
Gross domestic spending in R&D as a ratio to GDP
Figure 2 - Gross domestic spending in R&D as a ratio to GDP
(percentage points)
(percentage points)
Source: OECD for US and China and Eurostat for EU27.
Figure 3
Structure of the financial system in the FSB jurisdictions
Fig. 3 - Structure of the financial system in the FSB jurisdictions
(percentage of total domestic financial assets for advanced and emerging economies;
(percentage of total domestic financial assets for advanced and emerging economies; percentage of
percentage of GDP for totals)
Fig. 3 - Structure of the financial system in the FSB jurisdictions
GDP for totals)
(percentage of total domestic financial assets for advanced and emerging economies; percentage of
GDP for totals)
Source: Financial Stability Board, Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation, 2024.
Source: Financial Stability Board, Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation, 2024.
Notes: (1) Data for Russia as of 2020. (2) Russia not included in aggregates. (3) All deposit-taking corporations. (4)
Notes: (1) Data for Russia as of 2020. - (2) Russia not included in aggregates. - (3) All deposit-taking
Jurisdictions with OFI assets greater (lower) than their GDP will be above (below) the horizontal dashed line. The
Source: Financial Stability Board, Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation, 2024.
corporations. - (4) Jurisdictions with OFI assets greater (lower) than their GDP will be above (below) the
percentage of Other Financial Intermediaries (OFIs) assets to GDP for the Cayman Islands (296,237), Luxembourg
horizontal dashed line. The percentage of Other Financial Intermediaries (OFIs) assets to GDP for the Cayman
(19,248), Ireland (1,204) and the Netherlands (567) are not shown since they are particularly high compared to the rest of
Islands (296,237), Luxembourg (19,248), Ireland (1,204) and the Netherlands (567) are not shown since they
Notes: (1) Data for Russia as of 2020. (2) Russia not included in aggregates. (3) All deposit-taking corporations. (4)
the jurisdictions.
are particularly high compared to the rest of the jurisdictions.
Jurisdictions with OFI assets greater (lower) than their GDP will be above (below) the horizontal dashed line. The
percentage of Other Financial Intermediaries (OFIs) assets to GDP for the Cayman Islands (296,237), Luxembourg
(19,248), Ireland (1,204) and the Netherlands (567) are not shown since they are particularly high compared to the rest of
the jurisdictions.
Figure 4 - Share of intangible investments over total investments
Figure 4
(percentage points)
Share of intangible investments over total investments
Figure 4 - Share of intangible investments over total investments
(percentage points)
(percentage points)
Source: Global INTAN-Invest 2024 release, World Intellectual Property Organization and Luiss Business School.
8
Source: Global INTAN-Invest 2024 release, World Intellectual Property Organization and Luiss Business School.
Source: Global INTAN-Invest 2024 release, World Intellectual Property Organization and Luiss Business
School.
8
Figure 5
Annual issuance of publicly placed securitisations (1)
Figure 5 - Annual issuance (as a percentage of publicly of GDP) placed securitisations (1)
(as a percentage of GDP)
Figure 5 - Annual issuance of publicly placed securitisations (1)
(as a percentage of GDP)
Source: AFME.
Source: Notes: (1) AFME. Excludes US agency and EU retained transactions. See AFME, Response to the FSB invitation for
Notes: feedback (1) on Excludes the effects US of the agency G20 reforms and EU on retained securitisation, transactions. 2023. See AFME, Response to the FSB invitation for
feedback on the effects of the G20 reforms on securitisation, 2023.
Source: AFME.
Figure 6 - Composition of household financial assets in the US, the euro area and the UK (1)
Notes: (1) Excludes US agency and EU retained transactions. See AFME, Response to the FSB invitation for
(percentage points; 2023)
feedback on the effects of the G20 reforms on securitisation, 2023.
Figure 6
Composition of household financial assets in the US,
the euro area and the UK (1)
Figure 6 - Composition of household financial assets in the US, the euro area and the UK (1)
(percentage points; 2023)
(percentage points; 2023)
Sources: Bank of England, ECB, US Federal Reserve.
Notes: (1) EA stands for euro area. "Other" includes commercial loans, employee stock options and other minor items;
"insurances" includes pension funds.
9
Sources: Bank of England, ECB, US Federal Reserve.
Sources: Bank of England, ECB, US Federal Reserve.
Notes: (1) EA stands for euro area. "Other" includes commercial loans, employee stock options and other minor items;
Notes: (1) EA stands for euro area. "Other" includes commercial loans, employee stock options and other
"insurances" minor items; includes "insurances" pension includes funds. pension funds.
Figure 7
Venture capital investment across jurisdictions, average 2021-23 (1)
Figure 7 - Venture capital investment across jurisdictions, average 2021-23 (1)
Figure 7 - Venture capital investment across jurisdictions, average 2021-23 (1)
(in percentage of GDP)
(in percentage of GDP)
(in percentage of GDP)
Source: OECD.
Source: OECD.
Source: OECD.
Notes: (1) Average annual VC investment in percentage of GDP over 2021-23 in firms located in each jurisdiction. (2)
Notes: (1) Average annual VC investment in percentage of GDP over 2021-23 in firms located in each jurisdiction. (2)
Notes: (1) Average annual VC investment in percentage of GDP over 2021-23 in firms located in each
Average for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
Average jurisdiction. for France, - (2) Average Germany, for France, Italy, and Germany, Spain. Italy, and Spain.
Figure 8
Figure 8 - The size of the domestic VC market before and after the start of the public
Figure 8 - The size of the domestic VC market before and after the start of the public
The size of the domestic VC market
intervention (1)
intervention (1)
before and after the start of the public intervention (1)
(annual flows, € billion; DE: T=2011; FR: T=2012; IT: T=2019)
(annual flows, € billion; DE: T=2011; FR: T=2012; IT: T=2019)
(annual flows, € billion; DE: T=2011; FR: T=2012; IT: T=2019)
Source: own calculation on Invest Europe data.
Source: own calculation on Invest Europe data.
Source: own calculation on Invest Europe data.
Notes: (1) The start of the public intervention in VC (T) is 2011 in Germany, 2012 in France, and 2019 in Italy.
Notes: (1) The start of the public intervention in VC (T) is 2011 in Germany, 2012 in France, and 2019 in Italy.
Notes: (1) The start of the public intervention in VC (T) is 2011 in Germany, 2012 in France, and 2019 in Italy.
10
Figure 9
The Commission's Compass
Three core areas
closing defining a joint roadmap increasing security
the innovation gap for decarbonisation and strategic autonomy
and competitiveness
1) simplification of the regulatory and administrative burden
2) reduction of intra-EU barriers that limit the well-functioning of the Single
Market
Five
horizontal 3) adoption of a new strategy to mobilise resources to finance competitiveness
"enablers" Savings and Investment Union
4) promotion of skills and quality jobs
5) better coordination of policies at EU and national level
Source: adapted from EU Commission, Competitiveness Compass.
Designed by the Printing and Publishing Division of the Bank of Italy | - Europe faces a significant innovation gap, lagging in productivity growth and the integration of markets for ideas and patents, particularly in high-growth sectors.
- High domestic savings are not translating into innovation investments due to structural issues in the EU financial system, which is heavily bank-dominated and less equipped to support high-risk, innovative ventures.
- The European financial system's bias towards conservative, low-risk investments limits the growth of innovative projects, with household risk aversion contributing to this pattern.
- Venture capital (VC) in Europe is underdeveloped, impacting the growth of start-ups. Regulatory restrictions, fragmentation of financial markets, and a lack of institutional investment hinder VC development.
- Public sector initiatives have spurred some growth in the VC industry, with government acting as an anchor investor. However, further development requires thoughtful design and adaptation of interventions.
- The EU's new Competitiveness Compass targets closing the innovation gap with policies including enhancing the securitization market and creating a new "28th regime" for innovative companies to ease legal and cross-border investment barriers.
- The EU intends to consolidate resources on strategic projects, like the Tech EU investment programme and the European Competitiveness Fund, to boost investment in key technologies.
- The need for a simplified regulatory and administrative framework is emphasized; focus on quality over speed is essential to avoid creating further complexity.
- The absence of proposals for increasing EU funds or creating a European safe asset may limit the ability to implement these initiatives effectively, as current financing relies heavily on national budgets.
| Paolo Angelini | Banca d'Italia | IT | Deputy Governor | Deputy Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250311f.htm | 2025-03-10T00:00:00 | Sanjay Malhotra: Digital payments - background and benefits | Address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the inauguration of Digital Payments Awareness Week 2025, held at the Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, 10 March 2025. | Sanjay Malhotra: Digital payments - background and benefits
Address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the
inauguration of Digital Payments Awareness Week 2025, held at the Reserve Bank of
India, Mumbai, 10 March 2025.
* * *
Digital Payments - Background and benefits
Payments are the lifeblood of commerce, enabling the flow of goods and services in an
economy. They connect people, empower individuals and businesses, and drive
economic growth. Quick, secure and reliable payments at affordable prices are the
bedrock for a vibrant economy. Payments through digital modes support economic
growth. They also deepen financial inclusion by overcoming barriers like high
1
transaction costs and geographical limitations . In effect, digital payments are not just
convenient but are also a powerful tool for economic empowerment and growth.
Digital Payments - Convenience : Bouquet of products
Over the years, the Reserve Bank has supported various digital payment products. This
has enhanced choice and convenience to the customers. We started with ECS
(electronic clearing service). We then introduced NEFT, RTGS, IMPS, NACH (this is for
e-mandates, it has replaced ECS), AePS, UPI, NETC, etc. We have introduced many
new features on UPI and expanded its scope to cater to different needs of customers.
These include UPI123Pay, UPI Lite, linking RuPay credit cards to UPI, processing
payment mandates with single-block-and-multiple-debits, enabling Credit Lines for UPI,
linking PPIs with UPI, etc. UPI with its multiple features, allows us to transfer money,
pay bills, and make purchases with a simple click, tap or scan. We will continue to
proactively support the development of the payment ecosystem.
Digital Payments - Safety and Security
While promoting digital payment systems and innovations around them, we have been
mindful of the needs of safety and security in payments. We have thus put in place
various measures for this purpose:
Multi-factor authentication; security controls for internet and mobile payments
apps and card payments; card tokenisation (to prevent storage of card details in
merchants systems), etc. are intended to make our payments ecosystem robust.
We have enabled customers to have control over creating and terminating
emandates for recurring transactions.
Enhancing safety and security of payments ecosystem is a work in progress. The
recently released drafts on "Framework on Alternative Authentication Mechanisms for
Digital Payment Transactions", and on "Additional Factor of Authentication (AFA) for
cross-border Card Not Present (CNP) transactions" are steps in this direction.
Payment Systems - Way Forward
Apart from the RBI, the government and other important stakeholders such as the
Banks and Payment System Operators have also taken a number of initiatives to
encourage the adoption of digital payments. While these efforts have produced results,
as visible in the huge growth of digital payments, there is still a lot more to be done.
Going forward, we will work on three broad areas.
Payment Systems - Soft Touch Regulations to continue promoting innovation
First, we will continue to encourage innovation in payments, as also generally, while
being mindful of risks and taking appropriate measures to mitigate them. We will
promote innovation to facilitate payment systems that are fast, safe, secure, accessible
and resilient. We have adopted a soft-touch approach to regulating the payments
ecosystem and FinTechs. Through these regulations, the Reserve Bank attempts to
balance these divergent set of expectations. Our approach has been to put in place
regulatory guardrails within which all stakeholders are free to operate. We will continue
to encourage innovation while promoting safety and security through soft-touch
regulations.
Promote awareness generation
Second, though much progress has been made in the development, spread and
adoption of digital payments, there is a lot of scope to further deepen and expand digital
payments in the country. In January 2025, more than 20 billion payments worth almost
250 trillion rupees were made in India through digital modes. Digital payments have
become the preferred mode of payment for many of us. However, surveys have shown
that nearly 40% of our adult population still do not use digital payments. One of the
main reasons for this is the lack of awareness or familiarity with using digital payments.
To create awareness of Digital Payments, the Digital Payments Awareness Week is
being observed in March every year. As part of this endeavour, the "Har Payment
Digital" mission was launched in 2023. The mission seeks to promote digital payments
by enhancing awareness of digital payments among all citizens and making available
the necessary infrastructure and solutions for people to make payments digitally. The
objectives of Mission Har Payment Digital can be achieved only with the active
participation of all stakeholders. Geographies and population segments, lagging behind
in usage and awareness of digital payments need to be identified and suitable steps
taken to expand awareness and improve usage.
We are now in the 3rd year of this mission. The theme for this year is "India Pays
Digitally". This year too, we will continue our awareness activities. By showcasing how
digital payments have become a ubiquitous part of our lives, we will encourage those
who haven't adopted digital payments yet, to do so.
The Reserve Bank, as in the previous years, will be running multimedia campaigns
around this year's theme. To encourage active involvement of citizens, we will be
conducting various competitions over social media with attractive prizes.
The Regional Offices of RBI too conduct Awareness Programs, called eBAAT, across
the country covering various strata of society. We have been conducting these
programs since 2012. In the last 8 years, more than 1800 such programs have been
conducted. During this year, the content and method of delivery of eBAAT will be
reviewed, and a pilot will be conducted (in a large State) with the objective to reach a
very large number of people in the most efficient way.
I urge the Banks, Payment System Operators and other stake holders to contribute in
their own innovative ways to take forward the mission of Har Payment Digital.
More efficient Cross border payments
Third, while in domestic payments, the success of UPI has propelled India to a
leadership position with a share of 48.5 per cent in global real-time payments by volume
2
, we will endeavour to make cross-border payments more efficient. This assumes
priority as India is the largest receiver of personal remittances globally. As per a World
3
Bank report, it has been estimated that in 2024, India received remittances totalling
approximately 130 billion USD. We need to address the challenges of high cost, slow
speed, and insufficient access and transparency in cross border payments.. We will
continue to expand the reach of UPI bilaterally by linking UPI with Fast Payment
Systems of other countries. We will also explore the possibility of linking payment
systems other than UPI for facilitating efficient cross-border payments. We will continue
our engagement in a multilateral project called Project Nexus, to enable instant
4
crossborder retail payments .
As we observe the 5th Digital Payments Awareness Week, I am happy to note that this
year marks the 20th year of the establishment of the Department of Payment and
Settlement Systems (DPSS). I congratulate the department on this key milestone. The
work carried out by this department in association with all stakeholders has established
India as a pioneer in digital payments. The revolution in India's payment systems is,
however, far from over. We are just beginning to unlock the true potential of digital
payments. I am confident that we will continue to work with renewed vigour to ensure
that India remains at the forefront of digital payments globally.
Thank you.
1
World Bank, Digital Financial Services, April 2020.
2
ACI Worldwide, 2024
3
https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/in-2024--remittance-flows-to-low--andmiddle-income-countries-ar
4
Nexus, conceptualised by the Innovation Hub of the Bank for International
Settlements (BIS), aims to connect the Fast Payment Systems of four ASEAN countries
(Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand); and India, who would be the founding
members and first mover countries of this platform.
| - Digital payments are crucial for economic growth, financial inclusion, and overcoming geographic and cost barriers.
- The Reserve Bank of India has introduced a variety of digital payment products to enhance customer convenience and support the payment ecosystem.
- Safety and security are prioritized, with measures like multi-factor authentication and card tokenization.
- Future initiatives focus on encouraging innovation through soft-touch regulations, balancing risks, and ensuring system resilience.
- Increasing digital payment awareness is essential, with "Digital Payments Awareness Week" promoting initiatives like the "Har Payment Digital" mission.
- Emphasizing the need to reach populations unfamiliar with digital payments to improve adoption rates.
- Enhancing cross-border payment efficiency is a priority, with efforts to link UPI and explore multilateral projects like Project Nexus.
- Acknowledged the 20th anniversary of the Department of Payment and Settlement Systems, highlighting India's leadership in digital payments.
- Continued focus on expanding and innovating digital payment solutions to maintain India's global leadership. | Sanjay Malhotra | Reserve Bank of India | IN | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319d.htm | 2025-03-10T00:00:00 | Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput: The Thai economy - the current state and the way forward | Speech by Dr Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Japanese Chamber of Commerce (JCC) dinner talk, Bangkok, 10 March 2025. | "The Thai Economy: The Current State and the Way Forward"
Dr. Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, Governor of the Bank of Thailand
Japanese Chamber of Commerce (JCC) Dinner Talk,
Anantara Siam Bangkok Hotel, 10 Mar 2025
Distinguished JCC members and dear friends.
It's a great pleasure for me to be back here again. As noted, this is my fifth time coming to the JCC.
Before I go on to the topic and talk about the current state and the way forward, I thought I'd do a
little bit of looking back. I remember my first JCC talk back in March 2021 during COVID-19. It was a
hybrid event, very cozy, with 12 people sitting and listening in, and about another 80 people online.
This year, it's a bit bittersweet. I always enjoy coming back here, but it will be my last JCC talk. It will
be something that I will miss very much. So, thank you again very much for your kind welcome.
Part 1: Then (JCC March 2024) & Now (GDP Q4/2024 & 2024)
When I was here a year ago, I mentioned that I thought consumption was likely to continue to
recover, expecting to see consumption growth of about 3%. As it turns out, consumption came in
better than expected at 4.4%. We expected tourism to come back to about 34.5 million persons, but
we closed last year with 35.5 million persons. Export value, which had a terrible year in 2023, was
expected to rebound to about 2%, but it recovered nicely to 5.8%. The headline GDP number I gave
you last year was expected to be in the range of 2.5 to 3%, and it came out at 2.5%. So, it was right
at the very end, right at the very bottom of the range that we had expected.
And so why was that? We saw, again, consumption came in stronger than expected, exports did
better than expected, tourism came back better than expected, but the headline GDP number came
in quite weak. And if you look at the breakdown of the GDP number from last year, 2024, it turned
out that the production side did not do well. There was a big inventory drawdown number that
shaved off a big chunk of the headline GDP number. So, we ended up last year with a 2.5%. I mention
this because it has implications for the outlook now and going forward.
Part 2: Next (2025)
Growth: The fourth quarter of 2024 came in weaker than expected at 3.2%. We had been expecting
a number in the high threes, about 3.8 or 3.9%. The reason for this weakness had a lot to do with
more weakness in manufacturing than expected. This sets a low starting point for the figure this year.
As a result, we expect this year, 2025, to be weaker than initially forecast. The latest number at our
MPC meeting in December 2024, we put out publicly was 2.9%, but we now expect something closer
to 2.5%, plus a bit. We still expect to see continued growth in consumption and tourism. We expect
consumption to grow a little above 2.5% and tourism to come back to 39.5 million, close to pre-COVID
levels. Exports are expected to grow, but at a slower rate than the 5.8% we saw last year.
One key challenge is the disconnection between consumption growth and manufacturing output (see
graph 1). In the past, private consumption and manufacturing GDP were highly correlated, but now
there's a disconnection. Between 2021 and 2024, consumption grew at an average of 2.1%, while
manufacturing shrank by 0.6%. This gap is filled by imports, particularly from China. So, this has been
a major reason why we've seen a lackluster recovery in Thailand's headline GDP numbers. This also
explains why the outlook for this year remains concerning. With all the uncertainty on the trade front,
particularly around major economies' tariff policies, there's a significant risk.
Inflation: On inflation, last year we saw inflation come in at 0.4%, below our target. This year, we
expect inflation to be around 1.1%, within our target range of 1 to 3%. Does that worry us a lot? Short
answer would be not too much. The reason is because the low inflation is driven by supply side factors
like food and energy prices, not by a broad decline in demand.
We don't see a broad decline in prices that you would associate with general deflation. In fact, 75%
of the goods and services in the consumption basket are not dropping in price. It's only a smaller
segment of the CPI basket where prices are coming down, so it's not an overall broad-based decline.
Inflation expectations remain anchored. Surveys of business and household inflation expectations
are in the 2% range. So, the low inflation numbers should not be interpreted as broad-based
deflation. We don't see the typical signs of a deflationary spiral. Normally, if people expect prices to
keep dropping, they stop spending, thinking they can buy things cheaper later. This would lead to a
decline in consumption. But in Thailand, consumption is still growing. We don't see a negative price
and wage spiral, where low prices lead to low wage growth.
Financial stability: As everyone knows, we have very high levels of household debt. However, we are
seeing gradual deleveraging in the household sector, which is something we need to balance
carefully. We don't want household debt to grow too rapidly through rapid credit growth, as that
would not be good. Conversely, if credit growth contracts too sharply, the whole economy could
suffer. This balancing act involves getting household debt, particularly the household debt to GDP
ratio, on a path where it slowly decreases-not too fast, but not too slow either. We've seen signs
that credit growth is slowing down and stabilizing. In the third quarter of 2024, credit aggregated
growth was -2% year-on-year, but it leveled out to about -0.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating
greater stability. However, credit growth is slowing down due to higher credit risk and lower risk
appetite in lending.
In the household side, this trend is expected and necessary for deleveraging. However, we are
concerned about SME lending, which has been a significant issue in Thailand. Pre-COVID, SME lending
was declining, and although it increased sharply during COVID due to targeted credit measures, it is
now shrinking again. This retreat from SME lending reflects decreased risk appetite among banks. To
address this, we are tackling the problem at its source-credit risk. The risk of lending to SMEs is high,
so we have established the National Credit Guarantee Agency (NaCGA) to help guarantee some of
the credit and reduce credit risk, encouraging banks to lend more to SMEs.
Another area of interest is the auto side, where high purchase lending and auto loans have declined
sharply due to higher credit risk. This is driven by falling used car prices, which have dropped
significantly, not just here but in many countries, due to a glut of cars, particularly Chinese EVs at low
price points. When used car prices fall, credit losses for banks increase, making them less willing to
lend. However, we are starting to see signs of stabilization in the used car market and auction market.
The flow of cars to auction is leveling off, slowing down by about 20% to 30% compared to its peak
in the first quarter of last year, although still higher than pre-COVID levels. If the number of cars going
to auction decreases, prices should stabilize, credit risks will go down, and banks' willingness to lend
in this space should improve.
So, that's the current situation in the economy. Moving forward, at the Bank of Thailand, we focus
on two main areas: monetary policy and financial sector policy.
Policy: Our policy over the past few years has focused on implementing a robust monetary policy
within an integrated framework. This means we don't just rely on interest rates alone. Instead, we
use a combination of tools like foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and financial sector measures,
such as debt restructuring, to manage various economic challenges. Relying solely on interest rates
places too much burden on a single instrument. Interest rates impact many areas, including exchange
rates, credit, and household debt. Therefore, it's challenging to set the perfect rate to address all
these issues. By using an integrated approach, we can balance the load across different tools, making
our monetary policy more effective and comprehensive.
Fortunately, we have good buffers to handle FX volatility and high household debt. Instead of relying
solely on interest rates, we use financial sector policies like debt restructuring. Our latest package, "
Khun Soo Rao Chuay" helps address household and SME debt.
When we talk about monetary policy, we don't look at interest rates in isolation. We use an
integrated approach, combining various tools to create a robust policy. This means our policy is
broadly right for a wide range of outcomes, especially in uncertain times. We focus on the outlook
rather than just data-dependent, which can be noisy and lagging. This helps us avoid making
backward-looking decisions. We aim to avoid adding noise to the market and prefer not to change
rates frequently.
Recently, we lowered rates from 2.25% to 2% because we felt it was a more robust rate for the
current circumstances. We consider growth, inflation, and financial stability when deciding rates. The
growth outlook has softened, inflation is low, and financial stability risks are reduced due to slower
credit growth. Overall, we believe 2% is a good, robust rate suitable for a wide range of outcomes,
and we don't plan to move rates frequently.
Part 3: Way forward
Digital: Our approach has been consistent over the years, focusing on building a future-ready and
resilient digital financial landscape. We've made significant progress, especially in digital payments
with systems like PromptPay, which now handles 71 million transactions daily.
We've also expanded cross-border QR payment linkages, making Thailand one of the country's
leaders in this area within ASEAN and Asia. We're moving from bilateral to multilateral payment
linkages through projects like Nexus, connecting ASEAN fast payment systems with India.
Additionally, we're exploring the wholesale CBDC project called mBridge, which is a variety of central
banks together to solve the payment and settlement issues that happen with the correspondent
banking network. So instead of doing transfers via correspondent banking, taking whatever two,
three days, things can now be done in literally seconds and minutes.
Under our "three opens strategy"-more open infrastructure, more open competition, and more
open data-we're reviewing virtual bank licenses and expect to announce winners by mid-year, with
operations starting in June 2026. Open data is crucial for facilitating data sharing and maximizing
digital benefits.
Structural reforms: these are the kinds of things that we're doing and at the Bank of Thailand, the
stuff that's under our purview and that we managed to do. But I think it's very fair to say that in terms
of the way forward, there's a lot of structural stuff that should be done and needs to be done.
Structural reforms are crucial for Thailand's sustained growth. A lot of those are not necessarily with
the Bank of Thailand. We share the sentiment that a 2.5% growth rate isn't satisfactory. We need
long-term solutions, not just short-term economic boosts.
To achieve a higher long-term growth rate, we must improve productivity and competitiveness. This
involves regulatory impact assessments, regulatory guillotines, easing business regulations, and
upgrading skills. These changes are essential for a sustained increase in growth and a better future
for the Thai economy. And it's really, I think, the heart of what we would like and need to see for the
Thai economy in terms of the way forward to get us to a better place over the longer term.
Appendix
Graph 1: The disconnection between consumption growth and manufacturing output | - **Growth Outlook for 2025**: Weaker than initially forecast, expecting around 2.5% growth. Key challenges include a disconnect between consumption growth and manufacturing output.
- **2024 Economic Review**: Positive recovery in consumption, exports, and tourism. GDP growth was low at 2.5% due to significant inventory drawdowns.
- **Inflation**: Expected to be around 1.1%, within the 1-3% target range. Low inflation driven by supply-side factors (food and energy prices), not demand decline. No signs of deflationary spiral; consumption continues to grow.
- **Financial Stability**: Gradual household deleveraging observed. Need for balanced approach to credit growth to avoid economic strain. Concerns over SME lending and high household debt addressed through measures like the National Credit Guarantee Agency.
- **Monetary Policy**: Emphasizes an integrated approach using multiple tools beyond interest rates, such as FX intervention and financial sector measures. Recent rate cut to 2% to balance growth, inflation, and financial stability.
- **Digital Financial Landscape**: Significant progress in digital payments; initiatives like PromptPay and cross-border QR payment linkages. Projects like Nexus and mBridge aim to enhance payment systems.
- **Structural Reforms**: Essential for long-term growth; focus on productivity and competitiveness improvements through regulatory adjustments and skills upgrading.
- **Outlook and Strategy**: The Bank of Thailand is committed to robust policy frameworks and future-ready digital infrastructure while recognizing the need for broader structural reforms outside its purview. | Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput | Bank of Thailand | TH | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319g.htm | 2025-03-11T00:00:00 | Eli M Remolona: Getting out of the grey list - and staying out | Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona, Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the Tuesday Club Meeting, Mandaluyong City, 11 March 2025. | Eli M Remolona: Getting out of the grey list - and staying out
Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona, Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the
central bank of the Philippines), at the Tuesday Club Meeting, Mandaluyong City, 11
March 2025.
* * *
Good morning, Tuesday Club!
Thank you once again for having me here. Special thanks to Marichu for adjusting the
schedule--it was for an important reason, which I'll be sharing today.
Two weeks ago, I went to Paris to appear before the Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) Plenary Meeting. I was joined by Executive Secretary Bersamin, Securities and
Exchange Commission Chairperson Aquino, and Insurance Commissioner Reynaldo
Regalado. It was the culmination of our country's efforts to be stricken off from the
FATF greylist.
What exactly is FATF and what is the greylist? The FATF was established in 1989 by
the G-7 group of countries. The mandate of FATF is to develop international standards
to combat money laundering. But over time, that mandate has expanded to include
countering terrorism financing and proliferation financing.
What the FATF does to carry out its mandate is to evaluate countries, [under] what is
called a Mutual Evaluation, to see if they meet FATF standards. Countries that have
deficiencies are placed on a List of Jurisdictions Under Increased Monitoring, that is the
official name for the greylist. That means we have some deficiencies in terms of
compliance with anti-money laundering rules and anti-terrorism financing rules. The
thing about being on the greylist is that [it] places on your correspondent banks-or
banks abroad that are dealing with us-a heavy burden in terms of compliance against
money laundering. In fact, you may remember 2012, I think. One major global bank was
caught violating its compliance measures and it was fined something like $1.9 billion.
So, that is what comes with being on the greylist. Your banks have to be very careful
[because of] the very strict compliance procedures- [and] heavy fines [for
noncompliance].
In 2021, the Philippines was placed on the greylist. That means the FATF gives us
recommendations on things that we should do so we ourselves would comply with
antimoney laundering measures. It is easier for the banks if we do a lot of the compliance
part ourselves. That is the advantage of FATF greylist, if you are not complying, they
tell you how to comply. So, they give you a list of what are called action items. In 2018,
they gave us 18 action items that will help us figure out how to comply with money
laundering processes.
These action items included oversight of money service businesses, oversight of casino
junkets, oversight of designated non-financial businesses or professions (DNFBPs)- in
other words, list the lawyers and the bankers involved in these things-and also
nonprofit organizations to make sure that even non-profit organizations comply with the
items on the list. Law enforcement agencies were tasked to improve the confiscation of
proceeds of crimes, and the prosecution of money laundering and terrorism financing
cases.
For context on what happened in 2021- Even 10 years before that, banks were already
doing something called de-risking: they were already starting to cut off relationships
with our banks. The correspondent banks abroad were cutting relationships with our
banks here, which meant it was hard to send money here, it was hard to open accounts
abroad, especially the smaller banks. The bigger banks somehow maintained the
relationships with our banks because they could afford it. They could afford the
compliance measures.
Then, in 2016 we had the Bangladesh heist. So, that brought us extra unwanted global
attention. Actually, it was the 2016 Bangladesh heist that I think led to the greylist of
2021. So, we already suffered from measures that were being imposed on us even
before the greylist. The greylist just made it official, and it allowed FATF to give us 18
items to get out of the greylist.
The good news from last month was not the end of a four-year ordeal; it was actually
the end of a nine-year ordeal if you count from 2016.
So, we were told actually in 2021 [that] to get off the greylist by 2025 was too ambitious.
We have consultants who were working with us. That was too ambitious, but we have to
try. And so, under the leadership of President Marcos, the National Anti-Money
Laundering and Counter Terrorism Financing Coordinating Committee (NACC) was
reorganized in 2023, a scorecard system [was implemented] to hold the member
agencies accountable for their deliverables. The Executive Secretary has been the
chairman of NACC. I have been the vice chairman of NACC.
The directive of the President and the collaboration of national agencies in the NACC
exemplifies the "whole-of-government" approach. This worked very well.
FATF also wanted to see high-level commitment. It was not just complying with 18
action items. They wanted to see evidence that there was commitment at the highest
level. So, the banning of POGOs was a demonstration of that high-level commitment.
That [banning POGOs] was not on the [FATF's] list [of action items for the Philippines].
Nonetheless, I think it was important in getting us off the greylist.
By October 2024, the FATF determined that the Philippines had satisfied the action
plan. So, when it was not enough for the FATF to determine based on our reports on
the action plan, they had to send a team to conduct an onsite assessment to validate
what we have reported to them.
So, the team came here in January. That onsite team said, yes it is true, the Philippines
has satisfied the action plan and then in February, there was a big meeting in Paris,
which I attended. I gave one intervention and the executive secretary gave another
intervention, and then after that, FATF decided that we are okay, we had met the
expectations of FATF. There were no objections at all. So, it was a unanimous decision
by FATF [for the Philippines to be removed from the greylist].
In fact, we are recognized for good behavior. [The Philippines is seen as] a regional
leader in tackling money laundering and terrorism financing, so they [FATF] asked us to
provide evaluators for the other countries in Asia that are still on greylist.
So, the official statement as you know came out on February 21, 5 pm Paris time, 12
midnight here. It was a weekend. But, if you looked at what happened to the peso
before that weekend and after that weekend, I think it was anticipation of more
investments coming into the Philippines.
Now, just because we are off the greylist does not mean that we are done. We have to
make sure we do not get back into the greylist. In the past, we go in, we go out. This
time, we are determined to stay out of the greylist. So, part of that means looking at our
risks again. We call that national risk assessment.
So, we look at the whole economy to figure out what else can lead to risks of money
laundering, what else can lead to terrorism financing and so on.
The next [FATF] evaluation [of the Philippines] will be in 2027. We want to make sure
that we pass that evaluation.
In the meantime, we can reap the benefits of our delisting from the FATF greylist.
That delisting renews investor confidence. It paves the way for the restoration of
correspondent bank relationships. So, it helps our OFWs, but it is more than that. It
helps convince foreign investors to come in. Makes it easier for foreign banks to deal
with our banks. So, I hope we can stay out of the greylist. We are determined to stay
out of the greylist.
I think that is all I have for now. I am happy to take questions. | - The Philippines was removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) greylist, marking the culmination of efforts since 2016.
- FATF evaluates countries for compliance with international standards on money laundering and terrorism financing.
- Being on the greylist burdens correspondent banks with strict compliance measures.
- The Philippines was given 18 action items to address compliance deficiencies.
- Action items included oversight of specific businesses and improvements in law enforcement handling of financial crimes.
- Historical factors like the Bangladesh heist in 2016 contributed to greylisting in 2021.
- A “whole-of-government” approach and reorganization of the National Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Terrorism Financing Coordinating Committee (NACC) were key.
- Demonstrated high-level commitment, including decisions like banning POGOs, contributed to delisting.
- The FATF validated compliance progress through an onsite assessment in January 2025.
- The removal from the greylist is expected to boost investor confidence and restore banking relationships.
- Continuous efforts are essential to avoid returning to the greylist, with the next evaluation set for 2027.
- Being off the list supports foreign investment and facilitates easier dealings with international banks. | Eli M Remolona | Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas | PH | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250311m.htm | 2025-03-11T00:00:00 | Fritzi Köhler-Geib: Adapting to a changing world - monetary policy, structural reforms and digitalisation | Keynote statement by Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the Frankfurt School & OMFIF seminar "The European and international monetary and financial landscape", Frankfurt am Main, 11 March 2025. | Fritzi Köhler-Geib: Adapting to a changing world - monetary policy,
structural reforms and digitalisation
Keynote statement by Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib, Member of the Executive Board of the
Deutsche Bundesbank, at the Frankfurt School & OMFIF seminar "The European and
international monetary and financial landscape", Frankfurt am Main, 11 March 2025.
* * *
Check against delivery
1 Introduction
Ladies and gentlemen,
it is a great pleasure for me to be at the Frankfurt School. Thanks for the opportunity to
provide an impulse for this timely exchange of ideas.
The topic of today's event reminds me of my recent visit to Washington D.C. in
midJanuary, where we, an international group of researchers and central bankers,
discussed the possible shape of the policies of a new administration and their potential
impact.
At this point, we have already seen some changes, and it is becoming clear that the
actions taken by Europe, and within it Germany, will be decisive.
Let me address this topic by means of three questions. I will start with monetary policy,
move on to the geopolitical environment and round this off with structural reform in
Europe, in particular in Germany.
The questions I would like to address are:
First, where do we stand with monetary policy in the euro area? And will the natural rate
of interest help us answer this question?
Second, how is monetary policy affected by geopolitics and what is the economic
impact of the ongoing geoeconomic fragmentation?
And third, what does Germany need to do to revive its meagre potential growth?
2 Monetary policy and the natural rate
Let us start with the first topic: monetary policy in the euro area and its quest for price
stability.
In the euro area, inflation has fallen considerably over the past two and a half years.
The headline rate currently stands at 2.4%-less than a quarter of what it was at its peak
of 10.6% in October 2022.
In their latest macroeconomic projections, ECB staff last week predicted inflation to
gradually decline and to reach the medium-term 2% target by 2026. In other words, the
target is in sight.
But it is definitely too early to declare victory over inflation just yet. Core inflation and
particularly services inflation are still elevated. The inflation rate without the volatile
energy and food components stands at 2.6% in February. And the further development
of inflation remains highly uncertain.
There is a risk that inflation will be higher than expected, as a result of US trade policy
or higher unit labour costs, for example. Nevertheless, the decline in inflation and the
prospect of reaching the target in the medium term have already allowed the ECB
Governing Council to lower the key interest rates several times.
Monetary policy operates with a time lag. It would therefore be unwise to maintain a
restrictive course until the target has actually been reached. The brakes can be
released sooner.
Last week, policy rates were cut for the sixth time; the deposit rate, which is the relevant
policy rate, now stands at 2.50%. So, is monetary policy still putting the brakes on
economic policy and price developments?
One concept often used to address this question is the so-called natural rate of
interest-or short: r-star. What is r-star?
Conceptually, r-star is the real interest rate that would prevail if the economy were
operating at potential and inflation were stable. If a central bank sets its policy rates
such that the real interest rate is above r-star, monetary policy is restrictive or "tight". If
the real rate is below r-star, monetary policy is expansionary or "loose".
However, the natural rate is unobservable and can only be estimated. That makes r-star
a fuzzy signpost for practical monetary policy.
A first problem is that estimates of r-star depend strongly on the methodology. A second
problem is that the uncertainty that surrounds any r-star estimate is quite high. And a
third problem is that real-time estimates of r-star are highly susceptible to revisions of
the data.
1
All in all, estimates of r-star are notoriously uncertain. Hence, it would be unwise to
fine-tune monetary policy decisions mainly on r-star estimates. That is why the
Eurosystem uses a variety of financial, real and other indicators along the monetary
policy transmission mechanism.
Regarding the question of whether monetary policy is still restrictive, the answer is: we
don't know exactly. But it is possible that we have already entered neutral territory.
Although the concept of the natural rate of interest provides only limited help in
day-today monetary policymaking, it is a useful framework for the longer-term perspective.
The downward trend of r-star over the past decades was mainly due to declining
productivity growth and an ageing population.2
However, before I address the question of how to improve growth potential, I would like
to discuss how geopolitical tensions affect monetary policy and how the ongoing
geoeconomic fragmentation is affecting the economy.
3 Geoeconomic fragmentation
Apart from uncertainty as to whether we have already entered neutral territory, current
monetary policy is also being challenged by geopolitical and economic policy
uncertainty.
If you look at the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index or the Trade Policy
Uncertainty Index, you will see sharp rises over the past months. Macroeconomic
uncertainty is even higher now than at the beginning of the pandemic. And trade policy
is more uncertain than during the trade tensions in 2018 and 2019.
This rise in uncertainty is something that monetary policymakers have to take into
account. Hence they cannot base their decisions solely on baseline scenarios but also
have to consider risk scenarios.
The Bundesbank, for example, considered a scenario in which the US increases tariffs
permanently by 20 percentage points across the board and trading partners retaliate
moderately.
The simulation results highlight the risk that higher tariffs will impose wide-ranging
adverse effects on economic activity and trade-in the US and elsewhere. While the
effects on the euro area would be less than the effects on the US economy, they are
not negligible.
The ECB Governing Council is therefore well advised to continue to decide from
meeting to meeting based on new data and not to pre-commit to a certain interest rate
path. This approach allows for the necessary flexibility and full optionality.
The recent rise in uncertainty-which is a challenge for Europe-falls into a period of
already advanced geoeconomic fragmentation. If we look at the number of harmful
trade interventions, this has perceptibly risen since 2020.3
Between the financial crisis of 2009 and the beginning of the pandemic, the Global
Trade Alert database recorded around three thousand new harmful trade interventions
each year. However, in 2020, their number jumped to six thousand and has remained at
a significantly elevated level since then.
Trade interventions include protectionist measures such as tariffs, quotas or subsidies.
A closer look at the data shows that trade-distorting subsidies account for nearly
twothirds of all harmful interventions implemented between 2020 und 2023.
While the number of interventionist and protectionist measures increased in all G20
countries, the United States and China show the most significant increases in harmful
interventions. Many of them are of reciprocal nature. This stresses the risk of
selfreinforcing loops following an initial protectionist measure.
However, the evidence regarding the impact of these restrictions on world trade
dynamics is mixed.
On the one hand, the degree of global trade integration remains close to its level prior
to the global financial crisis. In 2023, world trade represented 58% of global GDP, only
a slight decrease from the 61% recorded in 2008. To put this into perspective, these
figures are significantly higher than in previous decades: in 1970, world trade accounted
for just 26% of global GDP, and by 1990, it had risen to 38%.
On the other hand, international trade is becoming increasingly regional. Gita Gopinath
and her coauthors find that trade and investment between blocs is decreasing,
4
compared to trade and investment within blocs. We are also seeing an increase in
regional trade agreements. Quite recently, for example, the EU and Mercosur came to
an agreement-which is now to be ratified by its members.
Despite such comforting news, we have to concede a general shift away from the
rulesbased global trade order. And most recently, as I already mentioned, one country has
started to put into question virtually all of its trade relationships.
This is certainly a major risk for the global economy; and the country itself does not
benefit from it either, as illustrated by the Bundesbank simulation. But the current global
economic policy uncertainty and the geoeconomic fragmentation is also weighing on
European growth. And Germany, as a very open economy, is particularly suffering from
this.
4 Structural reforms and the opportunities of digitalisation
4.1 Removing obstacles to economic growth
Which leads me to the last topic for today: economic policies in Germany.
Here, growth has been especially weak for several years. And the current weakness is
not just cyclical. Competitiveness has been falling for several years, unveiling significant
structural problems in the economy. And these problems can only be addressed by
structural reforms.
Major obstacles to economic growth in Germany are high energy prices, labour
5
shortages due to demographic change and little business dynamism and innovation. In
all three areas, structural reforms can improve the situation and increase the willingness
to invest. And lack of private investment is one of the reasons for weak growth.
As regards energy policy, we have to achieve greater planning certainty and make the
green transition as efficient as possible to save costs. To mobilise low-carbon
investments at a broader scale, households and firms need more clarity about the path
to carbon neutrality.
Investment in green technologies often entails high costs because of large amounts of
upfront capital, but lifetime operation and maintenance costs are relatively low. Facing
high uncertainty about future policy, firms hesitate to invest-or invest abroad instead.
To reduce uncertainty, we have to provide a consistent framework for future energy
supply.
Overall, in my view, the most important policy instrument to lower greenhouse gas
emissions is a uniform and broad price on carbon emissions across all sectors-not
least, because it is most cost-effective.
In addition, governments need to take complementary measures to ensure an efficient
transition to a low carbon economy. This is important to limit increases in fixed costs
and thus enable the low operating costs of renewables to feed through to retail prices.
Such measures would include, e.g., abandoning brown subsidies, choosing low-cost
options for the grid (i.e., overhead instead of underground transmission lines), exploiting
digital progress for instance with respect to smart meters and bidirectional charging of
electric vehicles, and advancing the integration of EU energy systems to avoid
overcapacities and exploit country-specific advantages with respect to energy supply.
To address the issue of labour shortages, we should reduce incentives for early
retirement. Moreover, a gradual raising of the statutory retirement age by linking it to life
expectancy would be appropriate.
More and better childcare facilities would encourage young parents to increase their
working hours. Relatedly, reducing disincentives to work in the tax and levy system
would increase the contribution of secondary earners in the labour force.
Finally, it is advisable for Germany to attract skilled labour from abroad, for example, by
streamlining the processes for obtaining work and residence permits.
Which leads me to the third area where action is needed: reducing red tape and
fostering innovation to strengthen business dynamics.
A recent survey of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry has shown that
reducing bureaucracy is by far the most important thing that firms want the new Federal
Government to achieve.
In Germany, some disclosure and reporting requirements are very-probably
excessively-extensive. A case in point is the recently adopted Supply Chain Act. A
streamlining of such regulations or at least avoiding making them more complex than at
the EU level would perceptibly simplify doing business for many firms.
Another main issue is the speed of German bureaucratic processes. In particular,
approval processes are notoriously slow.
In this respect, digitalisation of public administration is a great opportunity and may spill
over to the private sector. You probably all remember the recent fuss surrounding the AI
software DeepSeek. It seems to be able to provide AI solutions with only a fraction of
the hardware others require.
I see the rapid evolution of AI technology and applications as a great opportunity. New
approaches can open up possibilities for more efficient working. As a Bundesbank
board member, I have some practical insights to share about how digitalisation may
look in the public sector. Being responsible for our Directorate General Information
Technology, I would like to mention three examples of what we are doing.
4.2 Digitalisation in practice: the case of the Bundesbank
First, the Bundesbank is breaking new ground by proactively using the public cloud. As
an initial step, our innovative, high-performance and secure eBusiness portal-the New
Extranet, or NExt-went "live" in the cloud. It is for our currently over 180,000 customers,
including banks, insurers, corporates and other public sector institutions.
At the same time, we built up a Bundesbank -owned private cloud in our computer
centres for particularly sensitive data. With this hybrid cloud strategy and investments in
technological trends such as artificial intelligence, we are ensuring our readiness for
future challenges.
Second, the Bundesbank is also at the forefront of public sector digitalisation while
using artificial intelligence in multiple ways. Take, for example, the risk control function
and its analysis related to the many counterparties with whom the Bundesbank
conducts financial transactions or purchases securities.
By combining diverse sets of data and information, artificial intelligence can help us flag
potential financial difficulties of a counterparty at an early stage. Given the sheer
volume and complexity of the data involved, collecting and evaluating this information
manually would be nearly impossible.
AI will also help us to expand our economic analyses. And it will help us to improve our
understanding of how various policy measures affect inflation, employment and
economic growth.
Last but not least, I would like to mention the digital euro project.
The Bundesbank is currently working within the Eurosystem to look into the issuance of
a digital euro. The introduction of a digital euro would make a significant contribution to
strengthening Europe's sovereignty, resilience and efficiency.
The Bundesbank has played a key role in exploring a wholesale type of digital euro. It
would enable the settlement of digital assets in central bank money. This will help
improve the efficiency of capital markets and make the euro more attractive compared
with other currencies.
Results from recent trials in this regard are very promising.
5 Concluding remarks
Ladies and gentlemen,
In my remarks, I talked about monetary policy, geoeconomic fragmentation, and
structural reforms in Germany. With regard to digitalisation, I gave you some insights
into what the Bundesbank is doing.
What unites the three issues I have talked about today is that they are all driven by
changes.
Changes that affect the macroeconomic setting we live in. Changes that require policy
makers to be vigilant in order to adapt as well as possible.
I would like to invite all of us to consider these changes-these challenges-as an
opportunity to move closer together in Europe. Or as Jean Monnet has put it: Europe
will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.
Thank you very much for your attention.
1
For more details, see Nagel, J. (2025), r* in the monetary policy universe: navigational
star or dark matter?, Lecture at the London School of Economics and Political Science,
12 February 2025.
2
See Cesa-Bianchi, A., R. Harrison and R. Sajedi (2023), Global R*, CEPR Discussion
Paper No 18518; Davis, J., C. Fuenzalida, L. Huetsch, B. Mills and A. M. Taylor (2024),
Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r* in
10 advanced economies, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 149; International
Monetary Fund (2023), The natural rate of interest: drivers and implications for policy,
World Economic Outlook, April, Chapter 2.
3
See Global dynamics (globaltradealert.org).
4
See Gopinath, G. et al. (2024), Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War , IMF
Working Paper No 76.
5
See also Nagel, J. (2025), Economic Policy Measures to Boost Growth in Germany,
speech delivered at the Berlin School of Economics, 10 March 2025. | - Inflation in the euro area has decreased significantly, but core inflation remains elevated, indicating ongoing uncertainty about inflation trends.
- The ECB predicts inflation will reach its 2% target by 2026, allowing for some reduction in interest rates.
- Monetary policy decisions shouldn't rely heavily on the estimated natural rate of interest (r-star) due to its inherent uncertainties.
- Geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainties pose significant challenges for monetary policy, requiring flexible decision-making.
- Germany faces structural economic issues due to low competitiveness, high energy costs, labor shortages, and low business dynamism.
- Structural reforms in Germany include reducing energy costs, addressing labor shortages, and fostering innovation to increase economic growth.
- Digitalization offers significant opportunities for efficiency, particularly in reducing bureaucratic processes and enhancing public sector services.
- The Bundesbank is advancing digital initiatives like AI for risk analysis and exploring the issuance of a digital euro to enhance Europe's economic resilience.
- Overall, adapting to changes in the macroeconomic environment requires policymakers to remain vigilant and seek opportunities for cooperation within Europe. | Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib | Deutsche Bundesbank | DE | Member of the Executive Board | Executive Board Member | [
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] | null |
https://www.bis.org/review/r250313c.htm | 2025-03-12T00:00:00 | Christine Lagarde: A robust strategy for a new era | Speech by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the 25th "ECB and Its Watchers" conference, organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, 12 March 2025. | SPEECH
A robust strategy for a new era
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 25th ECB
and Its Watchers conference organised by the Institute for Monetary
and Financial Stability at Goethe University Frankfurt
Frankfurt am Main, 12 March 2025
Paul Valéry wrote that "the trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be".
Our expectations have indeed been swept aside in the last few years, and in the last few weeks in
particular.
Established certainties about the international order have been upended. Some alliances have become
strained while others have drawn closer. We have seen political decisions that would have been
unthinkable only a few months ago.
The level of uncertainty we are facing is exceptionally high.
An index of trade policy uncertainty currently stands at close to 350, more than six times its average value
1 ]
since 2021.[ And indicators of geopolitical risk stand at levels not seen since the Cold War, outside of
2 ]
wars and major terrorist attacks.[
This new environment raises fundamental questions for monetary policy. How can we deliver price stability
in a new geopolitical era?
Our strategy assessment is ongoing, as you know, and I will naturally not cover every issue in my speech
today. I will focus on the factors I consider to be particularly relevant in this new era.
I will ask three questions: how is the environment in which we operate changing? What do these changes
imply for our reaction function? And what do the changes imply for our policy communication?
My main message is that in an environment of uncertainty, a strong commitment to maintaining price
stability over the medium term is more important than ever.
This commitment will require agility to respond to new shocks, albeit within a well-defined framework that
limits short-sighted reactions and unbridled discretion.
As a result, we will need to continue steering the public's expectations. People will be looking to us - and
other policymakers - to understand how we will navigate this more volatile era and help reduce, rather
than amplify, uncertainty.
So, agility needs to be combined with clarity. Even when we cannot provide certainty about the rate path,
we can provide clarity about our reaction function.
The environment
When we last reviewed our strategy, the main challenge we faced was a prolonged environment of too-low
inflation. Although the review provided lessons that are relevant under any circumstances, its main focus
was on understanding the causes of too-low inflation and how to ensure that it did not become embedded.
The environment we are facing now is a different one. Three key changes stand out.
First, the direction of shocks is much harder to predict.
In the decade before our last strategy review, we faced a range of structural and cyclical forces that were
almost uniformly disinflationary. Now, we are seeing notable shifts in the drivers of inflation.
We still face structural factors like ageing and digitalisation that will probably be disinflationary in the
3 ]
coming years.[ But we are also now facing new, two-sided shocks - mainly linked to trade and defence,
as well as climate change - which can amplify or counteract the existing forces.
4 ]
Trade fragmentation[ and higher defence spending in a capacity-constrained sector could in principle
push up inflation. Yet US tariffs could also lower demand for EU exports and redirect excess capacity from
China into Europe, which could push inflation down.
Second, the size of the shocks to inflation could potentially change.
In the period from the great financial crisis to our last strategy review, we faced some very large negative
shocks to growth. The effect of these shocks on inflation, however, took time to materialise. We saw a
slow-moving downward drift in inflation that eventually seeped into inflation expectations.
But looking ahead, shocks might feed into inflation more directly and increase volatility. And this risk may
be particularly acute for the euro area, as we are highly exposed to some of the new types of shock.
For example, the euro area is very open to trade and part of integrated supply chains. Hence, trade
5 ]
fragmentation is likely to lead to larger, more disruptive relative price changes.[ In a similar vein, the euro
6 ]
area is highly dependent on energy imports.[ Geopolitical risks are likely to drive greater volatility in
exchange rates and energy and commodity prices, as we have seen in recent weeks.
Third, if the shocks do become larger, the persistence of inflation could in some circumstances be greater.
7 ]
One feature of the recent inflation shock was an increase in the frequency of price changes.[ This can
lead to a steepening of the Phillips curve and, more generally, to a proportionally stronger impact of large
shocks on inflation. A model developed at the ECB suggests that inflation behaves in a visibly non-linear
way: it reacts disproportionately more strongly to large shocks, whereas small shocks trigger no significant
8 ]
reactions.[
If such state-dependent pricing becomes standard when the economy is hit by large shocks, but the
frequency of wage-setting remains below that of price adjustment, we could see inflation becoming more
9 ]
persistent.[ Large shocks would lead to a faster pass-through to inflation, and then wages would have to
catch up with prices in a staggered way.
As an illustration, energy inflation peaked in October 2022, while services inflation only peaked in July
2023 and is still being pushed up by past shocks today, mainly through their delayed impact on wage
adjustments.
In this environment of more uncertain, larger and possibly more persistent shocks, the way we have
formulated our inflation target matters - that is, we aim for 2% inflation, our target is symmetric and we
work to achieve it over the medium term.
This symmetric target has served us well during the recent inflation surge, helping to coordinate
expectations and guide the inflation process back down towards 2%.
But the formulation does not mean that headline inflation will always be at 2%, which is impossible in the
kind of environment we are facing now. It means that, regardless of the shocks we face, we must set our
policy appropriately so that inflation is always converging back towards 2% over the medium term.
So, how can we do that? This brings me to the second area: the reaction function.
The reaction function
Our reaction function has always been state-dependent. In other words, policy should react differently
depending on the context and the origin, size and persistence of shocks.
Our medium-term orientation enables us to avoid reacting to small or passing shocks that will have faded
by the time the effects of a policy change kick in. And it allows us to flexibly adjust the horizon within which
we must return inflation to target.
Classically, monetary policy reacts more forcefully to demand shocks where output and inflation move
together, and "looks through" or reacts less to supply shocks that push output and inflation in opposite
directions - if they are sufficiently small and transitory.
Empirical evidence based on the last two decades finds that the ECB has largely followed this
prescription. Generally, it has reacted more strongly to demand shocks than to supply shocks. But it has
10 ]
responded to supply shocks more forcefully when these shocks were persistent and inflation was high.[
The new environment requires us to emphasise two factors.
The first is the anchoring of inflation expectations.
For the ECB, "looking through" has always been conditional on inflation expectations remaining well
anchored. The recent inflation surge has confirmed just how critical maintaining a strong anchoring is to
successfully navigate a more volatile world.
Our analysis finds that, if inflation expectations had been as poorly anchored as they were in the 1970s,
policy rates would have had to rise to 8% at the peak of the recent tightening cycle to tame inflation, with
very high costs for the economy. With well-anchored expectations, recent disinflation has instead been
11 ]
achieved at a relatively low cost compared with similar episodes in the past.[
This experience can, in some ways, give us confidence for the challenges ahead: the relative stability of
longer-term inflation expectations during a massive inflation surge suggests that our inflation target has a
high degree of credibility, which was reinforced by the decisive actions we took to keep inflation
12 ]
expectations anchored.[
At the same time, our starting point for the recent inflation episode was a decade of too-low inflation and
correspondingly subdued inflation expectations. This meant the public were initially inattentive to inflation
and took time to update their views.
But there is some evidence that public awareness has been awakened by recent experience. Once
consumers took notice of rising inflation, their inflation perceptions responded quickly but reduced more
sluggishly when inflation started to fall. This sluggish response has contributed to the slow adjustment of
consumer inflation expectations, especially one year ahead.
We will only know through careful observation how long these memories will last, and consequently how
sensitive inflation expectations will be to new shocks. But in all scenarios, close monitoring of inflation
expectations - across markets, analysts, forecasters, households and firms - will be central to our policy
reaction function.
Once the anchoring of inflation expectations is assured, the second factor we need to assess is how the
current environment affects the optimal policy reaction to different type of shocks.
If the Phillips curve becomes steeper at higher levels of inflation, meaning inflation responds faster to
changes in activity, then it should also be easier for monetary policy to bring inflation down without
imposing heavy costs on the economy. This would weaken one of the main rationales for "looking through"
13 ]
large supply shocks.[
At the same time, there may be risks in generalising from recent experience where disinflation was
relatively painless.
Alongside well-anchored inflation expectations, the relatively low "sacrifice ratio" during this disinflation
episode may reflect a unique set of conditions that will not be applicable to future shocks. In particular, the
fact that we faced a series of negative shocks to income reduced the extent to which demand needed to
14 ]
be dampened by monetary tightening.[
Any future shocks we face - such as energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions or a large increase
in spending on defence or infrastructure - will therefore have to be assessed through this framework.
All told, simple policy prescriptions will not be appropriate in the environment we now face. Within a well-
articulated strategy and an unwavering commitment to price stability, we will need to retain agility to
respond to complex circumstances as they arise.
This has implications for our policy communication, which brings me to the third area.
Policy communication
Maintaining agility affects how we can talk about the future. And this applies particularly to our ability to
give detailed guidance on the future path of interest rates.
Forward guidance about the rate path is particularly useful under two circumstances.
First, when the economy is faced with one-sided, persistent shocks pushing it towards the effective lower
bound. In this setting, it gives the public confidence that monetary policy will be sufficiently persistent to
dislodge those shocks and deliver on its target, while also helping insulate monetary conditions from
spillovers from abroad.
These benefits were all visible in the euro area from 2013 onwards when we first introduced rate forward
guidance.
Second, forward guidance can be useful when shocks become two-sided following a long time at the lower
bound. In this case, it can help to lay out the conditions for rate lift-off in a way that hedges against false
positives and prevents a premature tightening, and thereby reduces uncertainty about the future path of
rates.
However, one of the lessons of the recent period is that such guidance can become less helpful when
uncertainty about the nature of the shocks is rising. In particular, some of the lift-off criteria we applied to
our 2021 rate forward guidance were tied to the baseline inflation projections, but the projections were
slow in catching on to the reality of a much more persistent inflation shock.
The combination of factors that created this shock - a worldwide pandemic producing bottlenecks in
various sectors upon reopening and a major energy crisis - had not been seen since the end of the World
War One. But with hindsight, it would have been beneficial in our forward guidance to explicitly account for
the risks and uncertainty surrounding the baseline.
A general conclusion emerges: when the size and distribution of shocks becomes highly uncertain, we
cannot provide certainty by committing to a particular rate path. Otherwise, forward guidance may
constrain policy agility in the face of abrupt changes to the inflation environment.
But we can provide clarity about our reaction function. We can still help the public to understand how we
will navigate the new environment.
First, we can clarify how we are likely to be affected by different states of the world.
Since the pandemic, the ECB has been making greater use of scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis
precisely to make our policy more robust to changing circumstances. These exercises, together with our
discussion of the balance of risks, are designed to ensure that policymaking can remain forward-looking
and stay ahead of the shocks to come.
At present, we are considering various scenarios related to tariffs and fiscal policy changes, and what they
15 ]
will imply for growth and inflation.[
Second, we can clarify what kind of data we will look at to make our decisions, which helps the public to
distinguish signals from noise. This is why in March 2023 we set out three key inputs for policy decisions:
the inflation outlook - comprising both the baseline and risks around it - the dynamics of underlying
inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
In the early phase of our rate tightening, before these criteria were introduced, we saw large monetary
policy shocks - linked both to rate decisions and indications on future rates - as markets were looking for
orientation. But after March 2023, market moves were less pronounced despite similar levels of interest
rate uncertainty, which suggests that the markets better understood our reaction function.
We also saw increased sensitivity to new data releases in the early tightening phase. But this diminished
as markets understood which data we were focusing on and, especially, that data dependence should not
16 ]
be confused with "data-point dependence".[
The lesson I draw is that laying out a clear reaction function is critical to tempering volatility in a world of
exceptional uncertainty. The public must understand the distribution of possible outcomes ahead and how
the central bank will react once it is sufficiently confident about which scenario it is facing.
In this way, clarity on the reaction function can be seen as providing framework guidance - i.e. a type of
guidance that comes from the discipline implicit in a monetary policy framework - without pre-committing
to any particular rate path, as the latter would excessively constrain agility.
The three inputs we are currently using are designed to deliver robust policy in the face of the particular
constellation of shocks that have hit the euro in recent years, especially the staggered pass-through of a
large inflation surge to wages. Whether we continue to use those same inputs in future will depend on the
nature of the shocks that confront us.
Our strategy assessment should nonetheless commit to integrating risk and uncertainty about key factors
into our reaction function. The data we draw on should capture not only our central projection for the
economy, but also the uncertainty surrounding that projection and a rich, diverse set of risks.
Conclusion
Let me conclude.
Thomas Jefferson said that "eternal vigilance is the price of liberty". The same can be said of stability.
Maintaining stability in a new era will be a formidable task. It will require an absolute commitment to our
inflation target, the ability to parse which types of shocks will require a monetary reaction and the agility to
react appropriately.
Our response to the recent inflation episode should give the public confidence that we will always do
whatever is necessary to deliver price stability - and that our policy frameworks can adapt to new
circumstances.
Central bankers will need to show agility to adjust their stance and their tools to changing circumstances,
and they will need intellectual curiosity to challenge established principles and conventional wisdom.
1.
Index based on Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. and Raffo, A. (2020), "The economic
effects of trade policy uncertainty", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 109.
2.
Iacoviello, M., Wells, L., Yang, W. and Nate, S., "Geopolitical Risk Index" (accessed on 10 March 2025).
3.
See Aldasoro, I., Doerr, S., Gambacorta, L. and Rees, D. (2024), "The impact of artificial intelligence on
output and inflation", BIS Working Papers, No 1179, Bank for International Settlements, April; and Lis, E.,
Nickel, C. and Papetti, A. (2020), "Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector New
Keynesian perspective", Working Paper Series, No 2382, ECB, March. For an alternative view on the
effects of ageing on inflation, see Goodhart, C. and Pradhan, M. (2020), The Great Demographic
Reversal, Palgrave Macmillan.
4.
Attinasi, M.G. et al. (2024), "Navigating a fragmenting global trading system: insights for central banks",
Occasional Paper Series, No 365, ECB.
5.
ibid.
6.
Arce, O., Koester G. and Pierluigi, B. (2022), "Challenges for global monetary policy in an environment of
high inflation: the case of the euro area", ICE: Revista de Economía, No 929, pp. 115-130.
7.
Dedola, L., Henkel, L., Höynck, C., Osbat, C. and Santoro, S. (2024), "What does new micro price
evidence tell us about inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission?", Economic Bulletin, Issue 3,
ECB.
8.
Bobeica, E., Holton, S., Huber, A. and Martinez-Hernandez, C. (2025), "Beware of large shocks! A non-
parametric structural inflation model", forthcoming.
9.
For details on data allowing an analysis of the frequency of wage-setting in the euro area, see Górnicka, L.
and Koester, G. (eds.) (2024), "A forward-looking tracker of negotiated wages in the euro
area", Occasional Paper Series, No 338, ECB.
10.
See De Santis, R.A. and Tornese, T. (2023), "Energy supply shocks' nonlinearities on output and prices",
Working Paper Series, No 2834, ECB. This pattern holds more generally for central banks in advanced
economies; see Hofmann, B., Manea, C. and Mojon, B. (2024), "Targeted Taylor rules: monetary policy
responses to demand- and supply-driven inflation", BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International
Settlements, December, pp. 19-36.
11.
Deutsche Bundesbank (2024), "The global disinflation process and its costs", Monthly Report, July. See
also Christoffel, K. and Farkas, M. (2025), "Monetary policy and the risks of de-anchoring of inflation
expectations", forthcoming.
12.
Lagarde C. (2024), "Monetary policy in an unusual cycle: the risks, the path and the costs", introductory
speech at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, 1 July.
13.
Karadi, P., Nakov, A., Nuño, G., Pasten, E. and Thaler, D. (2024), "Strike while the Iron is Hot: Optimal
Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve", CEPR Discussion Paper, No 19339, CEPR Press, Paris
& London, 9 August.
14.
Lane, P.R. (2024), "The effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy in the euro area", contribution
to a panel at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, 24 August.
15.
In addition, there needs to be clarity that the central bank will respond appropriately in the event of large
market disruptions. The ECB has a strong track record in providing liquidity during financial stress
episodes and has two backstop instruments in its toolkit (the Outright Monetary Transactions and the
Transmission Protection Instrument). In turn, investor confidence in the liquidity policies and backstop
instruments of the ECB acts as a self-stabilising force by limiting incentives to "run for the exit" during
stress periods.
16.
Lagarde, C. (2024), op. cit. and the Q&As during the September 2024 and October 2024 press
conferences are prominent examples.
CONTACT
European Central Bank
Directorate General Communications
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
+49 69 1344 7455
[email protected]
Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.
Media contacts
Copyright 2025, European Central Bank | - High global uncertainty, particularly in trade and geopolitical risks.
- Emphasis on maintaining price stability in a volatile geopolitical era.
- Need for agility in monetary policy amidst unpredictable, persistent shocks.
- Importance of public expectation management and clear communication from central banks.
- Significant changes in inflation drivers, including trade and defence as well as climatic factors.
- Potential for larger and more volatile impacts on inflation due to increased trade fragmentation and energy dependency.
- Shifts in ECB’s inflation target to accommodate medium-term convergence towards 2%.
- State-dependent reaction function that tailors policy based on shock context and inflation expectations.
- Importance of anchoring inflation expectations; recent stability reflects strong ECB credibility.
- New challenges in policy communication, emphasizing reaction function clarity over fixed rate paths.
- Scenario and sensitivity analysis to adjust to evolving global conditions.
- Continued emphasis on robust policy decision-making amid uncertainty.
- Commitment to adaptability and intellectual curiosity to effectively manage future economic uncertainties. | Christine Lagarde | European Central Bank | EU | President | President | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319f.htm | 2025-03-13T00:00:00 | Gabriel Makhlouf: The value of trusted institutions | Speech by Mr Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, at the Čičin-Šain lecture, organised by the Croatian National Bank, Zagreb, 13 March 2025. | The value of trusted institutions - Governor Gabriel Makhlouf at
Čičin-Šain lecture
13 March 2025 Speech
Good morning everyone.
[1]
It's a pleasure to be in Zagreb. It is my first visit to a city that my family has connections to: my parents lived here
and in fact my father died here back in 1992. I have never had the opportunity to visit and am pleased to be here
with you.
Before I begin today's lecture, I would like to thank the Croatian National Bank (HNB) for organising this special
event in honour of the late Dr Ante Čičin-Šain. This is the first lecture since 2018 due to a Covid-enforced hiatus, and
as you all know, these lectures provide a focus for discussion and contact between Ireland and Croatia on matters of
economic interest, as well as marking Dr Čičin-Šain's unique contribution to fostering trust and furthering relations
between the two countries.
It's an honour to be here today to rekindle our special relationship and to deliver this lecture.
Although Ante Čičin-Šain needs no introduction here at the Croatian National Bank, I would like to pay tribute to his
career and role he played in developing deep relations between Ireland and Croatia.
As Croatia's first Ambassador to Ireland, he was highly committed to developing Irish-Croatian relations and the two
countries have enjoyed a very successful relationship since he took up his role. Prior to becoming Ambassador, Dr
Čičin-Šain was of course the first Governor of the independent Croatian National Bank, during a particularly testing
time for his country. He brought about monetary independence for Croatia, and successfully introduced a new
currency while Governor in the early 1990s.
In his role as Ambassador, he forged relationships and built trust between our two countries and further developed
the path for Croatia which ultimately led to the country's accession to the EU in 2013.
Indeed the unique part he played in promoting Croatian-Irish relations was recognised by the Irish Government
when, after he had retired as Ambassador, he was appointed Ireland's first Honorary Consul in Zagreb.
The Central Bank of Ireland and the Croatian National Bank have developed a successful relationship together over
the past few decades. One significant milestone in our relationship that stands out was the coin that we issued jointly
in 2007, commemorating Ivan Meštrovic. He was one of five artists who, in 1927 and at the request of Irish poet and
Nobel Prize winner William Butler Yeats, drew up the propositions for the design of the first coins of the Irish Free
State.
Unfortunately, Meštrovic received the request too late but, as Yeats recorded, "Meštrovic made one magnificent
design and, on discovering that the date had passed, gave it to the Irish Free State with great generosity".
[2]
Meštrovic's design ('Girl with a Harp') is now used by us at the Central Bank of Ireland as our official seal.
Institutions and social capital
From coins and seals to institutions. Some of you here today may have been in attendance in Dublin in 2006 when
Dr Čičin-Šain delivered the first of these lectures. He spoke about the importance of building relationships between
Croatia and the European Union and the role that Ireland played in the development of the Croatian economy He
also spoke about the establishment of Croatian institutions, and in particular the HNB following a particularly
turbulent period for your country.
In my remarks today I will focus on institutions. Although my starting point is the broad definition of institutions as the
frameworks that societies have designed to structure political, economic, and social interactions, I will concentrate on
the institution that I lead. I will discuss the important role that trust and credibility play to ensure that an independent
central bank delivers its objectives. And I will also discuss the importance of communicating effectively to maintain
and improve trust. Finally, I want to address the challenge of sustaining trust in a world of alternative truths and
disinformation bubbles.
Let me start by making some general remarks about the role of social capital in growing the economic capital that
ultimately underpins a society's prosperity. As I have argued before, the combination of financial and physical
capital, natural capital, human capital and social capital represent the economic capital that supports and enhances a
[3]
society's wellbeing. Social capital, in particular, is essential to the success of institutions such as independent
central banks whose core functions take place in the public realm.
I think of social capital as "the social connections, attitudes and norms that contribute to societal wellbeing by
[4]
promoting coordination and collaboration between people and groups in society."
Ultimately, social capital is how people connect with one another.
I do not intend to delve deep into the definitional and measurement issues around social capital (that's something for
the future). But social capital is essential to what we - central banks - do every day, and why we do it. And, perhaps
not surprisingly for a central banker, trust and credibility are the aspects of social capital that I will focus on today.
There is a mutually reinforcing connection between trust and credibility, and a central bank's goals.
If a central bank is credible, and households, firms and the financial sector have high levels of trust in its ability to
deliver on its mandate, then arguably it will be easier for it to succeed. Trust is a broader concept, one which
captures the public's belief in the goodwill or integrity of a central bank. The public's trust in an institution is linked to
whether that institution is delivering public value, via the interconnected stewardship of the authorising environment.
[5]
In broad terms, that environment consists of the institutions, structures, process and activities that transform the
interests and views of individuals citizens into a 'collective public' that can articulate what is worth taxing, what is
worth regulating and what is worth investing in or spending on. In that environment, leaders and staff at those
institutions work to build the legitimacy, credibility and support required to sustain a public enterprise over time.
[6]
Trust is fragile and relies on "informal norms and social capital". It is not a matter of blind faith. It is earned through
transparency, accountability and a demonstrated credible commitment to act in, and serve, the best interests of
society.
Here, in Croatia, the creation of the HNB as a strong and independent central bank and regulator was an important
step for a young, independent country in the early 1990s.
The HNB became a trusted institution through maintaining financial stability and implementing an independent
monetary regime, which enabled stabilisation in a country that had previously been through a long period of
economic instability, high inflation and frequent devaluations. Through its macroprudential measures, it protected the
economy from the extremes of the global financial crisis and it successfully managed the move to the currency union
in 2023.
On the other hand, if a central bank fails to deliver on its mandate, it can affect how credible and trustworthy it is
perceived to be. In Ireland, we saw this during the financial crisis, when the lack of a sufficiently robust regulatory
[7]
environment was identified as a key failure contributing to the collapse of the banking sector.
It has been a long road back to rebuild trust for the Central Bank of Ireland. There have been significant changes to
the powers, structures and mind-sets within our organisation, along with a new macroprudential policy regime,
reforms to our regulatory and supervisory approach, and a consumer protection framework that is responsive to
emerging risks.
Institutional independence matters
Whether old or new, institutions matter.
Economists from Adam Smith, to Ronald Coase, Mancur Olsen and, more recently, Daron Acemoglu and
James Robinson, have explained how institutions are critical for the rule of law, property and civil rights, economic
development, economic stability, and solving information and co-ordination problems across communities and
[8]
societies. As Andy Haldane put it, the "secret [of institutions] lies in solving societal problems of knowledge, co-
ordination and incentives. Institutional memory can help lengthen and strengthen otherwise short and subjective
minds."
Today we find ourselves in a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the economic landscape facing significant strain
and complexity, driven by competing interests, shifting alliances with different values and increasingly independent
economic blocs. Although there continues to be global trend towards enhancing central bank independence -
signalling a broad recognition of the importance of independent monetary policy in maintaining economic stability - it
[9]
is also true to say that established institutions, and their independence and effectiveness, are being challenged. As
ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this year, "although de jure central bank independence has never been
more prevalent than it is today, there is no doubt that de facto independence is being called into question in several
[10]
parts of the world".
Ultimately, if we view social capital as a means for how we connect with each other, then it is clear that institutions
matter for building social capital. This connection and the role institutions play in social capital is arguably more
critical than ever, in a time when the changes brought on by social media have given birth to a period of social
disconnection. In particular, algorithms have driven the greater atomisation of society. And they have also enabled
the growth of self-reinforcing extremes where established institutional frameworks are being undermined.
Central banks, as important institutions of the State, play a critical role. In my view, and notwithstanding the de facto
challenges I just mentioned, I believe that there is a general acceptance of the important role that central bank
independence plays in helping to keep inflation in check. It is an enabler of society's expectation that authorities will
[11]
act in a predictable manner in pursuing their objectives and that they will be successful in their mandate. But to
continue to have the authorising environment within which to operate independently, we need to continue to have the
trust of the public we serve. And we cannot take that trust for granted.
Trust
Trust for a central bank is at the core of enabling effective delivery of its mandate. In today's complex and
fastchanging world, the independence of a central bank does not mean it acts in isolation.
It engages with individuals, businesses, the political system, the financial system and many other stakeholders on a
daily basis.
And, to be clear, it is trust and not popularity that central banks should strive for.
Being a trusted, independent central bank contributes to the anchoring of inflation expectations and to reduced
uncertainty about future inflation. It helps contain short-term incentives and pressure on the central bank and
[12]
facilitates the achievement of its goals.
Numerous central banks' mission statements, or their codes of conduct, often emphasise the importance of being a
trusted central bank. In fact both the Central bank of Ireland and the HNB, as members of the Eurosystem, share a
mission statement that attaches "utmost importance to credibility, trust, transparency and accountability."
Trust is important for many dimensions of central banking, and is core to what we do.
Financial stability relies on trusting that the financial system is stable and well-regulated. Trust underpins the very
notion of money, and thereby the modern system of money itself. In effect, trust builds resilience in the financial
system. And during a financial crisis, a central bank that has widespread public trust as a competent, is likely to find
that its actions and communications are viewed as credible and reassuring, increasing their effectiveness.
Needless to say, trust also affects public and financial markets' inflation expectations, an important anchor and
determinant of price stability. Monetary policy requires trust - along various dimensions - to keep inflation
expectations anchored.
In brief, a central bank that is trusted as having high integrity and whose policies are supported by the public is likely
[13]
to be less prone to the influence of short-term electoral horizons.
Building and maintaining trust helps to build social capital and helps us to grow our economic capital.
How we can continue to build trust to improve public value?
But building and maintaining trust has become more challenging. I mentioned de jure and de facto central bank
independence earlier. In fact surveys have shown that trust in public institutions has, in general, been on a
[14]
downward trend. Some of this is a result of the social disconnection I also mentioned earlier, and some of it comes
from the ongoing damage of the Global Financial Crisis. There are no doubt other reasons, but I will only mention
one of them.
The world of alternative truths and of disinformation bubbles has certainly had a corrosive effect on social capital. In
his recent book, Nicholas Carr warns of the dangers of "our frenzied, farcical, information-saturated time".
[15]
Algorithms can act as a poisonous accelerant towards a 'post-truth' society. It is a particular challenge for
institutions such as central banks that rely on facts, and who sometimes must explain to the public inconvenient
truths or the rationale for increasing interest rates, such as to deliver on their objectives. I don't have a solution to this
challenge but I do think we need to address it proactively and not be passive in the face of its growing impact.
I suggest central banks need to do a few things:
First and foremost and self-evidently, we need to do our job well. Nothing can earn trust better than delivering on
your mandate to maintain price and financial stability, protect consumers and ensure the financial system works
for the real economy;
We need to be transparent and accountable. And also humble. We need to tell people what we're trying to do
and why we're trying to do it. And if we make mistakes, we should own them, fix them and learn from them;
We should be open to diverse views and be prepared to change our view. Your view may have been right, but
when the facts change, you need to recalibrate. Change can strengthen institutions. Or, to put it another way, if
you only try to preserve an institution, you may in fact be weakening it;
We need to be connected to the community as a whole, not least to the households and businesses that live in
the real economy and are the ultimate owners of the 'authorising environment'. We should make efforts to
understand which, in my view, will also help us to be understood; and, perhaps, most of all,
We should place our communication into a coherent narrative that helps understanding. Narratives matter. As
Robert Schiller has pointed out, "the spread and dynamics of popular narrative, particularly those of human
[16]
interest and emotion and how these change over time" have an impact on the economy. And as I've said
before, there's always a narrative and vacuums are always filled, not necessarily by facts that are accurate or
[17]
benign.
What's critical to being trusted is of course the need to demonstrate trustworthiness. It is not simply a matter of
asking the public to trust you. Trust is valuable when placed in trusted and credible institutions, but can be damaging
[18]
or costly when (mis)placed in untrustworthy agents and activities. The public's view of a credible public institution
is formed, in part, through the competent delivery of its mandate by the institution and its employees. Doing our job
well is fundamental to trust: it is what the public sees and feels.
Communicating effectively to improve trust
The importance of both understanding, and being understood, is a critical element of how an institution can
strengthen its trust with the public.
At the Central Bank of Ireland, we have placed significant importance on the value of engaging and listening to our
various stakeholders, as well as how we are communicating the delivery of our mandate.
How we engage with our communities and our commitment to being open and engaged, focused on transparency,
and building genuine connections with the public we serve, matters to us. It allows us to foster a wider understanding
of our mandate and role, it enhances the effectiveness of our policy-making and it contributes to maintaining trust
and confidence in the financial system.
The changing dynamics of the world in which we inhabit, not least how information is accessed and shared, means
that institutions need to evolve if we are going to inform and if we want to be understood. We have to meet the
public - in fact all our stakeholders - where they are, rather than hope that they will come back to the old ways of
receiving and accessing information. I guess that most of us in this room can remember those old days when we
received almost all of our information through broadcast and newspapers.
Those days are gone.
Today, the proliferation of multiple platforms in the social media age has led to multiple ways of being informed -
whether accurately or not - and this presents a challenge to us all.
And the onus is on us to meet the challenge. We need to meet people where they are, be it online, through different
forms of media, or in person. We have to engage and communicate in ways that are accessible and understandable.
Conclusion
Let me conclude.
We have entered a more uncertain geoeconomic and political environment where social capital will need to be
nurtured carefully if it is to make its important contribution to growing our economic capital and enhancing the
prosperity of our communities. The integrity and independence of trusted institutions matters more than ever.
Trust is needed for institutions to succeed, and central banks are no different. We need to consider carefully how we
can build credibility and trust and sustain it in a world of alternative truths. It's a challenge that I am confident we can
meet by doing our job well, by being transparent, humble and accountable, by being connected and open to different
views, and by communicating clearly. Perhaps, most of all, we can build and sustain social capital by seeking to
understand so that we can also be understood.
[1]
Thank you to Vasileios Madouros, Conor O'Shea, Cian O'Laoide and Steven Cull for their help in preparing these
remarks.
[2]
75 Years of Change: The Story of the Central Bank of Ireland
[3]
Makhlouf, Gabriel. Growing our economic capital: investing in sustainable improvement in our wellbeing . Speech
at Victoria University Wellington (3 November 2016)
[4]
Makhlouf, Gabriel. " Social Capital and the Living Standards Framework ". Address to University of Auckland (27
March 2018)
[5]
Understanding Public Value; https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2022-12/understanding-public-value-
mark-moore.pdf (PDF 836.56KB)
[6]
Discussion Paper Series: https://cepr.org/system/files/publication-files/DP19811.pdf
[7]
Resolving Ireland's Banking Crisis by Patrick Honohan
[8]
Haldane, Andrew; Address to the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change (CRESC) Annual Conference,
School of Oriental and Africa Studies, September 2003 (PDF 243.94KB) (PDF 243.94KB)Why institutions matter
(more than ever) (PDF 243.94KB) (PDF 243.94KB)
[9]
Trust in Central Bank Independence, David Romelli
[10]
Lagarde, Christine. Central bank independence in an era of volatility . Speech at the Lamfalussy Lectures
Conference (27 January 2025).
[11]
Carstens, Augustín. Origins and foundations of central bank independence (PDF 420.16KB) . Speech at the Bank
of Madrid (17 January 2025).
[12]
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3006~502710f3fa.en.pdf (PDF 2.22MB) - ECB working paper
[13]
https://cepr.org/system/files/publication-files/DP19811.pdf - Aikman, Monti and Zhang
[14]
OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public found that across the 30 countries, the share of people with low or no
trust in the national government (44%) outweighs the share of those with high or moderately high trust (39%).
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-survey-on-drivers-of-trust-in-public-institutions-2024-results_9a20554ben/full-report.html
[15]
Carr, Nicholas. Superbloom: How Technologies of Connection Tear Us Apart. (W.W.Norton & Co, 2025)
[16]
Schiller, Robert. Narrative Economics (Cowles Foundation, Yale University 2017)
[17]
Makhlouf, Gabriel. Chances, choices and challenges: New Zealand's response to globalisation . Lecture at the
University of Canterbury (17 August 2017)
[18]
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09672559.2018.1454637?scroll=top&needAccess=true Linking Trust
to Trustworthiness | - Trust and credibility are crucial for central banks to deliver their objectives effectively, emphasizing transparency and communication.
- Social capital plays a vital role in supporting institutions, with trust and credibility as key components.
- Central banks need to maintain their independence while engaging with various stakeholders to build trust.
- Building and maintaining trust requires competent delivery of mandates, transparency, accountability, humility, and open communication.
- Institutions, including central banks, are critical for economic development and stability, particularly in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
- Trust in institutions has declined, affected by social disconnection and disinformation; central banks must actively counteract this trend.
- Effective communication is essential for trust, requiring adaptive engagement with media and stakeholders to foster understanding.
- Central banks should prioritize trust over popularity to stabilize inflation expectations and enhance financial stability.
- Historical context highlights how trusted institutions, like the Croatian National Bank, have stabilized economies and fostered growth.
- The challenge of maintaining trust is compounded by the rise of alternative truths and disinformation, necessitating proactive strategies.
- Central banks must demonstrate trustworthiness through competence and clear communication, adapting to evolving information landscapes. | Gabriel Makhlouf | Central Bank of Ireland | IE | Governor | Governor | [
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] | null |
https://www.bis.org/review/r250319b.htm | 2025-03-13T00:00:00 | Sanjay Malhotra: Climate change risks and finance | Keynote address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the Policy Seminar on "Climate change risks and finance", organised by Reserve Bank of India, New Delhi, 13 March 2025. | Sanjay Malhotra: Climate change risks and finance
Keynote address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the
Policy Seminar on "Climate change risks and finance", organised by Reserve Bank of
India, New Delhi, 13 March 2025.
* * *
I am delighted to be present here and be part of this important event on climate change
which continues to draw attention in the national and international discourse. I would
not dwell in detail about the perils of climate change since this audience is already well
aware about its impact not only on the real economy, but also the financial system, as
well as our day-to-day lives. Climate related changes are perceptible, clear, and visible.
They are intensifying and threatening ecosystems, livelihoods, and economies. It is our
individual and collective responsibility, to work together effectively and contribute to the
global efforts to mitigate the risks associated with climate change and ensure that the
Indian financial system remains resilient.
Dimensions of Climate Change Risks
There are two dimensions to climate change related risks that we as regulators,
policymakers and practitioners have to be aware of - the first is facilitative involving
capacity building, development of the ecosystem and financing of green and
sustainable transition; and the second is the prudential aspect, which is related to risk
management.
While the role of the Central Banks in managing risks posed by climate change to the
financial system is increasingly being recognised, their role in facilitating the financing of
green and sustainable transition has been a matter of debate and has varying
dimensions to it. Central Banks in Advanced Economies have traditionally followed an
asset neutral approach. Central Banks in Emerging Markets and Developing
Economies (EMDEs), on the other hand, have adopted directed lending policies to
channelise credit to certain sectors of their economies given their individual country
circumstances and developmental objectives. In the Indian context, as you are all
aware, the priority sector lending guidelines facilitate credit to be channelled to specific
sectors including renewable energy.
On the prudential aspect, there are several channels through which climate change
risks impact the financial system. All the major types of financial risks - be it credit,
market, or operational risk - are influenced by climate change. These risks include
losses from credit portfolio due to extreme climate events or natural disasters (physical
risks) and loss in value of collaterals due to stranded assets (transition risks); losses
from investments; and operational losses. Although climate change impacts almost all
economic sectors, the extent and nature of these risks vary by sector, industry,
geography, and institution. The mitigation of climate change risks, therefore, rests -
firstly, on realistic and comprehensive assessment of the frequency and severity of
climate risks and secondly, estimating their financial impact, which is no easy task.
As a Central Bank, the Reserve Bank is mindful of its role in addressing and mitigating
risks to the financial system from climate change. In this context, our endeavour has
been to play the role of a facilitator - including supporting capacity building and
fostering a conducive regulatory framework for promoting green and sustainable
finance. One important aspect of green financing/lending for sustainable finance is the
higher credit risk due to borrowers' use of new and emerging green technologies, which
have relatively limited track record in terms of reliability, efficiency, and effectiveness.
Regulated Entities, therefore, need to develop suitable capacity and technical
knowhow to better appraise risks in financing projects which use such green technologies.
Evolution of climate change risks and mitigation for the Indian
Financial System.
The Reserve Bank's approach with respect to climate related financial risks is oriented
not just for the short-term but also the medium-term, taking into consideration the
evolving national and global circumstances. Over the short-term, our goal is to be able
to make a realistic estimation of the impact of climate related risks not just on individual
institutions but also on the financial system as a whole. This would involve scenario
analysis and stress testing exercises, using both bottom-up and top-down approaches.
The risk management framework in Regulated Entities for climate related financial risks
is still evolving. There is a need for concerted efforts in developing the risk management
framework; building technical expertise and competencies for comprehensive
assessment and mitigation of climate related financial risks as also on the extent of
losses due to such risks. I would now like to highlight some of the initiatives of the
Reserve Bank has taken in this regard.
Climate related financial risk modelling is very important and data intensive. There is
limited data available for measuring financial impact of climate change. Moreover, there
is lack of benchmark sectoral transition pathways and country-specific carbon emission
database. These constraints limit our ability to make a comprehensive assessment of
climate change risks. These limitations also constrain comparison of financial impact,
as each Regulated Entity may use its own assumptions and models to process climate
related data. To address such constraints, we had in October last year announced the
creation of a repository called the Reserve Bank - Climate Risk Information System
(RB-CRIS). The repository is intended to bridge data gaps by providing standardised
datasets. These datasets include hazard data, vulnerability data and exposure data
related to physical risk assessment, sectoral transition pathways and carbon emission
intensity database related to transition risk assessment. Work on this repository is
underway and we expect to launch it later this year.
Several jurisdictions have started work on the assessment and disclosure of climate
related risks. International organisations such as International Sustainability Standards
1
Board (ISSB) of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation
has released standards on climate related disclosures. The Basel Committee on
Banking Supervision (BCBS) has also released a consultative document on disclosure
2
of climate-related financial risks with a view to integrate climate risk related disclosures
under the Pillar III disclosure requirements of the Basel framework. The Reserve Bank,
as you are aware, had already issued draft guidelines on Disclosure Framework on
Climate related Financial risks in February 2024, for public comments. We have
received valuable feedback and are in the process of finalising the guidelines. A
guidance note on Climate Scenario Analysis and Stress Testing is also being
developed for the Regulated Entities.
As we all are aware, technology and finance have a critical role in the transition towards
a low-carbon economy. There is a need to build innovative solutions and capabilities in
these areas. The Reserve Bank has been encouraging and facilitating innovations
through its Regulatory Sandbox and Hackathon initiatives in the Fintech space. We
propose to set up a dedicated "on Tap" cohort on climate change risks and sustainable
finance under RBI's Regulatory Sandbox initiative. We are also planning to conduct a
special "Greenathon" on climate change and related aspects.
3
We had in April 2023, issued the Framework on acceptance of Green Deposits with
the objective of enabling banks to augment the flow of credit to green activities and
projects. This again shows our willingness to facilitate financing green/sustainable
projects. The idea behind the Green Deposits is similar to that of sovereign green
bonds. We all need to raise awareness about such products.
I would like to highlight an important initiative to promote green finance. We have
included finance to small renewable energy projects - solar, biomass based, windmills,
micro-hydel plants and non-conventional energy based public utilities viz. street lighting
systems, and remote village electrification projects as part of priority sector lending.
One of the oft-cited constraints to adequate flow of climate related finance has been the
lack of bankable projects. Capacity and expertise constraints limit the ability to appraise
and thus finance climate change mitigation. It also enhances the risk of funding such
projects. Thus, creation of a common pool of such bankable projects will have multi-fold
benefits for the entire ecosystem. Regulated Entities with experience of such projects
can contribute to the pool for the benefit of others, while also benefiting from such
information shared by other Regulated Entities. This will help share knowledge for
benefit of all. There is a need for collaboration in this emerging and evolving area. I
urge the Regulated Entities to seriously consider setting up such a pool through an
appropriate institutional arrangement.
Before I conclude, let me say what is perhaps obvious. The impact of climate change
risks is not limited to the financial system alone but extends to the real economy. Be it
the corporates or the MSMEs or the agricultural sector, climate change risks are
ubiquitous. This calls for a cohesive co-ordination and harmonisation in approach,
among not only the financial sector regulators and the Regulated Entities but also
various government agencies. There is a need to adopt a holistic approach towards
mitigation of climate change risks considering the country specific requirements and
circumstances. We will collaborate and coordinate with the government and other
regulators to ensure that there is harmonisation and consistency in rules, regulations
and our approach towards mitigating the impacts of climate change.
I am happy to note that while we are deliberating on this important topic, the Annual
Steering Committee meeting of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)
is also taking place today at this venue. NGFS is doing some pioneering work in the
area of managing climate related financial risks. Be it the NGFS scenarios, the recent
work on adaptation, or the work on data directory, they have been a source of technical
guidance and capacity building across the globe. We look forward to continued
engagement and coordination with the NGFS.
Conclusion
To conclude, let me reiterate that climate change risks are real and all stakeholders
need to be prepared to address the risks and challenges from climate change. Even
though we have made a decent start, there are still issues that need to be addressed.
The Reserve Bank remains committed to continue adopting a constructive and
consultative approach towards supporting the various initiatives being undertaken
towards management and mitigation of financial risks related to climate change. We will
continue to work steadfastly to realise our vision to build a financial system that can not
only withstand future climate shocks, but also actively contribute to India's journey
towards a sustainable and resilient future. I urge you all to contribute towards this
cause. As Albert Einstein had said "The world will not be destroyed by those who do
evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything."
Let me also take this opportunity to extend my best wishes to you and your families on
the occasion of Holi - the festival of colours.
Thank you.
1
https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/
2
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d560.pdf
3
https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=12487&Mode=0 | - Climate change poses significant risks to ecosystems, livelihoods, and economies; it is crucial for individuals and institutions to work collectively to mitigate these risks.
- Climate change risks have two dimensions: capacity building and the financial ecosystem development, and prudential risk management.
- Central Banks are increasingly recognized for their role in managing climate-related financial risks, while their role in facilitating green finance varies by region.
- In India, priority sector lending guidelines direct credit to renewable energy sectors.
- Climate change impacts all major financial risks - credit, market, and operational - through physical risks and transition risks.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aims to facilitate green finance and develop a conducive regulatory framework, while acknowledging higher credit risks in green technology financing.
- RBI’s short to medium-term approach includes scenario analysis and stress testing for climate-related financial risks.
- There are data constraints in modelling climate risks; RBI is developing a Climate Risk Information System to address data gaps.
- RBI is refining guidelines on climate-related financial risk disclosures, guided by international developments in standards.
- Innovation in technology and finance is vital for a low-carbon economy, supported by RBI’s Regulatory Sandbox and upcoming Greenathon.
- Green Deposits and the inclusion of small renewable projects in priority sector lending exemplify RBI’s efforts to boost green finance.
- Collaboration among financial entities is needed to create a pool of bankable climate-related projects to enhance financing capabilities.
- Climate change risks affect the real economy and require a coordinated approach among financial regulators, entities, and government agencies.
- The RBI is committed to a consultative approach in managing climate-related financial risks, aiming for a resilient financial system that contributes to sustainability.
- Engagement with the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is highlighted for capacity building and technical guidance. | Sanjay Malhotra | Reserve Bank of India | IN | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319c.htm | 2025-03-13T00:00:00 | Vasileios Madouros: Catching and keeping up - payments innovation in Ireland | Remarks by Mr Vasileios Madouros, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, at the National Payments Conference, organised by the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) Dublin, 13 March 2025. | Catching and keeping up - payments innovation in Ireland - Remarks
by Vasileios Madouros, Deputy Governor, Monetary and Financial
Stability at BPFI National Payments Conference
13 March 2025 Speech
Good morning everyone. Thank you to the BPFI for organising this year's National Payments Conference and for
1
inviting me to take part. I'm delighted to be joining you again this year.
When we met this time last year, my main message was that many of the benefits of innovation in payments
2
remained untapped from the perspective of the domestic economy. Put differently, Ireland has been lagging behind
some of our peers in terms of the payments offerings available to domestic households and businesses. The
Government's National Payments Strategy (NPS), published last October, has set the foundations to address
3
that. And our collective near-term focus now needs to be on delivery, to realise the intended outcomes outlined in
the NPS.
In my remarks today, though, I would also like to look further ahead. To consider not just how we catch up with the
frontier of innovation of payments, but how we keep up over time. Because that frontier continues to shift rapidly,
driven by technological and business model innovation.
Technological shifts and the ongoing evolution in the payments landscape
To illustrate this point, let me start with a brief look back at the evolution that we have already seen in the payments
landscape.
As everyone knows, a striking trend over recent years has been the rapid shift from cash to electronic payments
for retail transactions. Over the past decade, cash withdrawals have decreased by close to a third, while the use of
electronic payment methods has increased almost fourfold (Chart 1). Of course, cash is - and will remain - a core
element of the payments ecosystem, and the Central Bank is committed to ensuring cash remains available as a
means of payment. In aggregate, though, it is clear that electronic payments are increasingly popular amongst many
in our society.
Chart 1: Electronic payments have risen rapidly, as cash withdrawals have fallen
The growth in electronic payments has, in turn, been driven primarily by continued innovation by card schemes.
From the magnetic strip, to contactless payments, to the integration of cards into mobile wallets. Amid technological
progress, evolving consumer preferences and a changing nature of commerce, card offerings have responded.
Indeed, card payments have accounted for more than 60% of the growth in electronic payments in Ireland over the
past decade (Chart 2).
Chart 2: The growth in domestic electronic payments has been driven by cards
Internationally, paying by account has evolved into an increasingly effective payment method, enabled by greater
use of application programming interfaces, 'open banking' and upgrades to the underlying infrastructure to support
instant payments. Paying by account offers a convenient alternative to cards, strengthening competition, lowering
costs for merchants and consumers and improving system-wide resilience. However, Ireland continues to lag behind
other jurisdictions in the availability of pay-by-account offerings. Rightly, therefore, the NPS has prioritised the
development of pay-by-account solutions as an additional payment method in Ireland.
In that context, it has been positive to see the progress made over the past year, whether in terms of the constructive
engagement of the sector with the account-to-account workshops organised by the Central Bank or the
implementation of the "receiving" leg of instant payments. Indeed, progress on the latter means that we've seen a
significant increase in reachability of Irish bank accounts with instant payments (Chart 3). But it is also clear that
there is substantial further work ahead of us to make pay-by-account solutions broadly available in Ireland. This
includes progress with the implementation of the "sending" leg of instant payments as well as accompanying
enablers, such as APIs and verification of payees. Ultimately, delivering a convenient and trusted pay-by-account
solution for consumers and businesses in Ireland remains an important near-term priority.
Chart 3: Reachability with instant payments has risen, amid progress with implementing the "receiving" leg
of instant payments
A further wave of transformation in payments (and finance)
So this is where we are now. But the transformative potential of technology in the world of payments - and finance
more broadly - remain as strong as ever. In that context, progressing near-term priorities also needs to be
accompanied with actively preparing for the future.
And a likely spark for further innovation is based on the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT). DLT
allows for the creation of common shared ledgers, which can be updated simultaneously across all parties to a
financial transaction. The technology has the potential to reduce frictions and inefficiencies, by removing the need for
parties to a transaction to individually update and reconcile their own ledgers. DLT also allows for certain functions to
be built into financial contracts, such as making conditional payments. And the possible use cases of DLT extend well
beyond payments, introducing the potential for a diversity of digital assets to co-exist on shared ledgers.
The use of DLT is increasingly being explored for its potential to introduce greater efficiency and effectiveness in
4
payments processes. For example, tokenised deposits are being investigated by banks across the world. Put
simply, these refer to the potential for using DLT technology to represent a standard deposit balance on a shared
ledger. The majority of exploratory efforts at the moment have centred on the use of tokenised deposits for wholesale
5
financial transactions, but attention is also being given to the tokenisation of retail deposits.
6
And, of course, DLT is also already in use by various so-called stablecoins. These broadly comprise digital assets
that aim, by one means or another, to maintain a stable value relative to some reference asset(s). At present, these
tokens are mainly issued by non-bank entities, so they have been spurred not just by technological innovation, but
also business model innovation. To date, their use has been largely confined to facilitating transactions within the
crypto ecosystem, but there are certainly stated ambitions that they could be used for broader payment purposes
across the economy, including for cross-border payments.
So where does this all leave us? It is clear that the journey of transformation in payments is ongoing. Indeed, we
7
could be at the cusp of another wave of innovation disrupting the landscape. While it is hard to predict the future, it
certainly seems plausible that we will see increasing integration of DLT into financial services, including payments.
Which then begs the question: how do we best respond to, and prepare for, the ongoing transformation in the
payments landscape to achieve optimal public policy outcomes?
Why central banks and regulators are responding
What is very clear - in this context - is that central banks and regulators cannot afford to stand still.
Why? Well, as you know, the modern monetary system is based on a public and a private tier: public money -
liabilities of the central bank; and private money - deposits of credit institutions. And payments systems - through
which these different forms of money flow - rely on an inextricable partnership between the public and private
sectors.
In that partnership, the role of central banks and regulators is to ensure trust. We do this in different ways: by
issuing the safest and most liquid asset in the economy - public, or central bank, money; by operating core
payments infrastructures; by regulating and supervising financial institutions; and by overseeing privately-operated
payments systems. These foundations then enable the private sector to do what it does best: interface with
customers, innovate, compete to win business and, ultimately, meet the evolving financial needs of households and
business.
Given this inextricable partnership between the public and private sectors, to achieve optimal outcomes for
households and businesses, central banks and regulators need to anticipate, and respond to, innovation. And, to
illustrate why this is essential, it's useful to consider the counterfactual: what might be the costs of standing still, in
light of the innovation that we're seeing in the private sector?
At the very least, there would be a risk that the full benefits of innovation in payments are not maximised from the
perspective of the broader economy. Fragmentation harms efficiency in payments, resulting in higher costs for
businesses and households. The core payments infrastructures operated by central banks guard against
fragmentation, by offering a common platform and unified standards, upon which the private sector can build to
provide services to businesses and households. If those infrastructures and standards did not keep up to speed with
technological developments, we would risk a more fragmented payments ecosystem.
Similarly, if regulators were to stand still, the emergence of novel risks amid an evolving landscape could undermine
confidence and integrity in payments. For example, it is not just payments providers that have innovated.
8
Unfortunately, so have fraudsters. Which means that our collective approach to preventing fraud needs to constantly
evolve to protect consumers. And the increasing participation of new, innovative entities in the payments ecosystem
requires that our regulatory and supervisory approach adapts, to remain fit for purpose and maintain confidence.
There are also more severe scenarios, from the perspective of the system as a whole, if central banks were to stand
still amid broader innovation. Imagine, for example, a scenario where DLT becomes embedded across the financial
system, but public money does not keep pace. If that were to happen, private money could replace central bank
reserves as the key settlement asset for wholesale financial transactions. Such an outcome would be systemically
risky. Central bank reserves are the ultimate risk-free and most liquid asset in the financial system. Their use as a
settlement asset for large and time-critical wholesale transactions anchors confidence across the entire payments
system, ultimately supporting all payments in the economy.
These scenarios illustrate the main point: for the benefits of the next wave of innovation to be harnessed, central
banks and regulators need to keep up pace with developments.
The Central Bank's response to innovation in payments
So let me now turn to how the Central Bank - as part the Eurosystem and the European System of Financial
Supervision - is responding to the innovation we are seeing in payments. Ultimately, we ourselves are on a journey,
as we are deepening our understanding of the opportunities and risks of different technologies and innovations.
Our ultimate aim is to ensure that the benefits of innovation for consumers of financial services are realised and the
risks are managed effectively, thereby maintaining confidence in money and payments throughout this ongoing
transition. This is a strategic priority for us, and the approach we are taking is multi-faceted, reflecting the range of
activities we undertake to deliver trust in money and payments.
New technologies for settlement in central bank money
One key initiative is the exploration of new technologies for settlement in central bank money.
Last year, the Eurosystem concluded a successful series of tests employing DLT for settlement in central bank
9
money. This work generated widespread interest amongst market participants, across multiple European
jurisdictions. This pointed to the market's desire for the Eurosystem to play an active role in the ongoing digital
transformation of the settlement landscape.
Last month, the Governing Council of the ECB decided to step up the Eurosystem's efforts in this area, following a
10
two-track approach. First, in order to meet market demand, as soon as feasible, the Eurosystem will develop and
implement a safe and efficient platform for settlements of transactions recorded on DLT in central bank money,
through an interoperability link with TARGET Services. Second, the Eurosystem will look into a more integrated,
longterm solution for settling DLT-based transactions in central bank money.
Digital Euro
Another way in which the Eurosystem is responding to the innovation in payments is through the preparation for a
Digital Euro.
The development of a retail central bank digital currency is especially relevant in the euro area, given the persistent
fragmentation of the retail payments landscape in Europe. Despite multiple efforts, more than 30 years since the
inception of the Single Market, 25 years since the launch of the single currency, and 10 years since the publication of
the Single Euro Payments Area Regulation, most European retail payment solutions remain national in scope. This is
preventing us from reaping the full benefits of the Single Market.
The public infrastructure that needs to be built to facilitate a Digital Euro would - amongst others - fill the gaps in our
current fragmented retail payments landscape in Europe. More broadly, as a complement to cash, the Digital Euro
could be used for all digital payments throughout the euro area, be free for basic use, be available both online and
offline, and offer the highest level of privacy. No existing digital payment instrument offers all these features in the
Euro Area.
A Digital Euro would offer an open platform for innovation, based upon which private payments providers could build
value-added services and achieve pan-European reach, strengthening competition and competitiveness. It is yet
another example of a public-private partnership.
A responsive approach to regulation and supervision
Our approach to regulation and supervision has also responded, in different ways, as the payments ecosystem has
continued to evolve.
One dimension of that has been the increased supervisory attention on the payments and e-money institutions
(PIEMI) sector. In recent years, we've seen significant growth in the number and activity levels of PIEMI firms
authorised in Ireland, providing services across Europe. Our supervisory efforts have sought to strengthen the
regulatory maturity, governance and risk management capabilities of the sector, to better match those growing
11
activity levels.
Another dimension has been our increased focus on operational resilience. This is critical in the context of growing
digitalisation of financial services, including payments, set against ageing legacy IT platforms in some firms.
Enhancing operational resilience, including cyber-related resilience, across the financial sector remains a priority for
12
the Central Bank. In 2025, a key element of that will be the effective implementation of DORA obligations by
regulated firms.
And the regulatory framework has also responded to the growth of digital assets, through the introduction of MiCAR.
The Central Bank is the National Competent Authority for the authorisation and supervision of entities in Ireland
subject to MiCAR. We have put in place a well-resourced and expert team to deal with the authorisation process in a
responsive and timely way.
Strengthened engagement with the domestic sector
Catalysing better public policy outcomes in payments requires effective engagement amongst participants of the
payments ecosystem. The Central Bank actively supports that outcome, acting as a 'convening' force. We can bring
together innovators and incumbents, payment service providers and payment service users, private market
participants and public authorities.
An example of that has been the ongoing work through the Irish Retail Payments Forum on identifying and removing
barriers to the development of account-to-account payment solutions in Ireland. Later this year, we also plan to
engage with the sector on developments in, and implications of, new technologies in payments, including DLT.
From a regulatory perspective, our new Innovation Sandbox helps us deepen our understanding of the opportunities
and risks associated with cutting edge innovations, while sharing our expectations for innovators seeking to enter the
13
regulatory remit.
Our first iteration of the Innovation Sandbox has focused on combatting financial crime and fraud, which are
particularly relevant to the payments trends we see. Future iterations of the sandbox could potentially explore DLT
and its applications across the financial system, though of course that would require that there is sufficient
engagement with the technology from the financial sector.
Our commitment to cash
Finally, let me also cover cash. Because part of the preparation for the future is ensuring that digital developments in
payments do not outpace society's needs and preferences.
Cash is - and will remain - a core element of the payments ecosystem - in Ireland and internationally. Indeed, the
Eurosystem's cash strategy aims to ensure that cash remains widely available and accepted. While the use of cash
in Ireland has been declining, it is very clear that there is a continued societal and economic demand by households
and businesses to be able to use cash as a means of payment.
In that context, the Central Bank has been preparing for the delivery of our responsibilities under the legislative
framework currently going through the Oireachtas on Access to Cash. This is an important public policy intervention,
providing a mechanism for ensuring that future developments in the cash infrastructure provided by the private sector
reflect society's needs. And, as a further signal of our commitment to cash, we have embarked on a project to build a
14
new Cash Centre. We see this as a critical piece of national infrastructure, serving society for decades to come.
Taking a strategic lens on payments innovation
So let me now turn to how we see the financial sector preparing for the potential transformation that lies ahead.
Overall, my observation is that the extent to which payments are seen as a strategic priority across the Irish financial
system is uneven, and parts of the sector providing services to domestic households and businesses need to take a
more forward-looking approach than we have seen to date. I recognise, of course, that the landscape is shifting
constantly and rapidly. And that there are many competing priorities. But it is precisely because of this context, that a
strategic lens is important.
Let me give you some practical examples of what I mean.
A strategic lens would recognise that expanding the breadth of data that accompanies a payment transaction is a
necessary foundation for the future of payments. We are in the midst of an ongoing enhancement of the
infrastructures underlying payment transactions, including by making increasing use of enriched messaging formats
- such as ISO20022. Yet, we continue to see provisional, stop-gap measures, rather than long-term solutions. The
use of intermediary ISO20022 converters is an example here, which needs to be phased out of the market.
A strategic lens would also seek to maximise the synergies between different tracks of the evolution of payments. For
example, in the context of the Digital Euro, the Eurosystem wants to maximize the re-use of standards, payment
instruments and infrastructures, allowing payment service providers to build on existing investments, including the
ones made for instant payments. So, a strategic approach would seek to go beyond delivering the minimum
requirements to meet the Instant Payments Regulation, and see the development of an effective pay-by-account
functionality as a building block for scaling up capabilities and reaping the benefits of synergies in the future.
Active exploration of new technologies and innovations is also an important enabler for incumbent financial
institutions to better understand their benefits and risks, consider the implications for their business models, and
prepare for the future. While Irish financial institutions did not participate in the Eurosystem's exploratory work on
new technologies for wholesale settlement last year, the Central Bank stands ready to support anyone who wishes to
engage with the next steps of this work. Similarly, in terms of the Digital Euro, active engagement - with us, with the
broader Eurosystem, and within industry fora - is key to building understanding and enhancing preparedness.
So I think a step change is needed in terms of taking a strategic lens to the future of payments, and grasping the
opportunities available. Because failure to keep pace is a real risk, both from the perspective of central banks and
regulators as well as the financial system itself.
Conclusion
Let me conclude by taking a step back and considering the importance of innovation in payments from a broader
lens.
Digitalisation is one of the most powerful 'mega-trends' shaping our society and economy. And payments are the
lifeblood of the economy. So innovation in payments - done well and safely - can unlock broader economic benefits.
It can improve efficiency, enhance competition, and reduce costs for businesses and households. And, at a European
level, it can reduce fragmentation, helping to maximise the benefits of the Single Market for all Europeans. For those
benefits to be realised, the Irish payments landscape needs to catch up with the frontier of innovation, and also keep
up over time. That requires taking a strategic lens on the evolution of payments. And it also relies on an effective
partnership between the public and private sectors. I look forward to continued engagement with many of you here
today to realise those opportunities in the years ahead. Thank you for your attention this morning - and I hope you
enjoy the rest of the conference.
[1] I am very grateful to Austin Carberry, Robert Davies, John Geelon, Patrick Haran, Anne Marie McKiernan, Karen
O'Leary, Gillian Phelan, Heloise Rosset, Jason Roche and Mikela Trigilio for their advice and help with preparing
these remarks.
[2] Madouros (2024) 'The evolving payments landscape in Ireland', available here.
[3] Department of Finance (2024) 'National Payments Strategy', available here .
[4] See, for example, European Banking Authority (2024) 'Report on Tokenised Deposits', available here (PDF
869.85KB) .
[5] See, for example, UK Finance (2024) 'UK RLN Experimentation Phase: Summary Report', available here .
[6] In practice, of course, there have been various incidents of deviations from the peg. See, for example, Kosse et al
(2023) 'Will the real stablecoin please stand up?', available here (PDF 606.96KB) .
[7] See, for example, Carstens and Nilekani (2024) 'Finternet: the financial system of the future', available here (PDF
846.75KB) .
[8] For an analysis of payments fraud trends in Ireland, see Varadarajan (2025) 'Behind the Data - Insights from Irish
Payment Fraud Statistics', available here.
[9] See https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/intro/news/html/ecb.mipnews241204.en.html .
[10] See https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250220_1~ce3286f97b.en.html .
[11] See McMunn (2024) 'Perspectives and priorities - payments and e-money', available here.
[12] See Central Bank of Ireland (2025) 'Regulatory and Supervisory Outlook, available here (PDF 2.15MB).
[13] See Donnery (2024) 'Innovation and Trust- Regulating in the interests of us all', available
[14] See https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/statement-cash-centre-7-december-2022. | - Ireland has been lagging in payment innovations; the National Payments Strategy aims to address this.
- Focus is needed on delivering the intended outcomes of the NPS.
- The shift from cash to electronic payments is notable; electronic payments have surged fourfold.
- Card payments have driven the growth of electronic payments in Ireland.
- Open banking and APIs are enabling effective account-based payments, which Ireland needs to develop further.
- Ireland is advancing in instant payments, but more work is needed for widespread pay-by-account solutions.
- Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) could drive future payment innovations, offering efficiency and broader digital asset applications.
- Central banks and regulators must keep pace with innovations to maintain trust and avoid systemic risks.
- The Eurosystem is exploring DLT for central bank money settlements, planning a platform for DLT-based transactions.
- The development of a Digital Euro aims to address fragmented retail payments in Europe and foster competition.
- The regulatory approach focuses on improving governance and risk management in payment institutions.
- Boosting operational resilience, particularly against cyber threats, is a priority.
- The introduction of MiCAR addresses the regulation of digital assets.
- Central Bank actively engages in the payments ecosystem to foster public-private partnerships.
- Commitment to cash remains strong, with initiatives to ensure its availability and acceptance.
- Financial institutions in Ireland need to adopt a strategic approach to payments innovation.
- Digitalisation in payments can unlock economic benefits, requiring a strategic public-private partnership approach. | Vasileios Madouros | Central Bank of Ireland | IE | Deputy Governor | Deputy Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319l.htm | 2025-03-13T00:00:00 | Luke Forau: Launch of the new $1 coin | Keynote address by Mr Luke Forau, Governor of the Central Bank of Solomon Islands, at the launching of the new $1 coin featuring King Charles III Effigy, Honiara, 13 March 2025. | Luke Forau: Launch of the new $1 coin
Keynote address by Mr Luke Forau, Governor of the Central Bank of Solomon Islands,
at the launching of the new $1 coin featuring King Charles III Effigy, Honiara, 13 March
2025.
* * *
Minister of Finance & Treasury Hon Manase D Sogavare, Ministry of Finance and
Treasury
CBSI Board of Directors
Heads and Representatives of the Financial Institutions
Members of the Press - both radio and print
Our business partner from Royal Australia Mint (Not present here today)
CBSI Executives, managers and staff
CBSI Currency Taskforce
Good people of Solomon Islands
Friends, Ladies & Gentlemen
Gud Fala Morning Lo Iufala Evriwan who are here today, including those who are
turning in today from SIBC.
It gives me great pleasure to welcome you all this morning, a special welcome to the
Minister of Finance and Treasury, to witness yet another milestone in the Central
Bank's history - the launch of the New SI $1 circulation coin with the new effigy of His
Majesty, "King Charles III" which the Minister is going to declare it later on, and will be
th
released into circulation as of today, 13 March 2025.
Let me briefly take you back to our currency history that we journey before SI
Independence in July 1978.
th
Before Solomon Islands gained Independence on 7 July 1978, the British Solomon
Islands Protectorate has had its own currency notes and coins, which were first issued
th
on 24 October 1977, using Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth's Effigy. I suppose this is
one of the prerequisites for a nationhood. And FYI, the Central Bank was established in
1976, then it was called Solomon Islands Monetary Authority (SIMA).
In November 2011, for strategic reasons CBSI ceased all its currency coins agreement
with the British Royal Mint and signed a new Agreement with the Royal Australia Mint
Ltd (RAM) for the minting of all SI Circulation Coins & Numismatic Programs
In June 2012, the Central Bank issued its first Circulation coins minted by the Royal
Australian Mint Ltd, totalling SBD$25.7m.
Today, this currency development continues as we come to witness yet another new
circulation bank coin that marks a new reign in the line of Thrown replacing the obverse
of the coin which features the effigy of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II to a new Effigy of
His Majesty King Charles III 2025.
Let me turn to the new effigy of His Majesty King Charles III on the $1 SI
circulation coin
As you may have already probably aware, the CBSI had recently pre-launched and
unveiled the new King Charles effigy on the $1 coin to international media at the Royal
Australia Mint Ltd in Canberra, in October 2024, via a Bank Industry News Media
Release.
th
The coin, now set to be launched today (13 March 2025), represents a historic
milestone in the journey of Solomon Islands' modern currency development and a
continuation of our ongoing relationship between Great Britain and Solomon Islands
and between CBSI and its supplier, the Royal Australian Mint Ltd
The new $1 coin will retain the same dimension (size and shape) with the beloved
Nguzu Nguzu motif on its reverse, symbolizing good luck and protection, while the
DT
obverse will feature the new effigy of King Charles III designed by Daniel Thorne ( ).
The inclusion of the effigy marks the first Solomon Islands coin to commemorate His
Majesty's reign, combining traditional elements with this fresh design to celebrate the
nation's heritage and monarchy.
The new coin is more than a currency; it is a symbol of the Solomon Islands' history,
culture, and its ties to the Commonwealth. This design honors both our traditions and a
shared value that the nations of the Commonwealth uphold in recognition of the
monarchy.
The coin will be officially launched and will become available through the commercial
banks and its branches as of this afternoon and the coming days. CBSI will also
conduct special promotional events and educational campaign to familiarize the public
with the new effigy. It is important to differentiate the significance of the New King's
Effigy as compared to the Queen Effigy. The New King Charles' III Effigy when looking
at the coin obverse, will be facing to the Left while the Queen's Effigy will be facing to
your Right
This latest collaboration with the Royal Australian Mint continues our long-standing
partnership between the Solomon Islands and Australia, showcasing the shared values
and excellent business relationship of both nations.
What to look for on the new bank coin:
Front Design:
As alluded earlier, this new $1 coin will retain the same dimension (size, shape and
aluminum bronze color) with the obverse featuring the new effigy of King Charles III
DT
designed by Daniel Thorne ( ).
On the Back Design:
The new $1 coin also retain the same design with the famous Nguzu Nguzu motif on its
reverse, that symbolizes good luck and protection, so there is no change to the reverse
side of the coin at all.
As a market currency, this bank coin will be highly used in daily transactions because
of its fitting face value for smaller payments for all retailers both in rural and urban areas.
The new and colourful bank coin will join more than $46.8 million worth of coins already
in circulation as at end of December, 2024.
Cost of Printing Banknotes
Allow me to now remind all our good people of Solomon Islands that the Central Bank
spends a lot of money each time it prints or mints new currencies. It costs the Central
Bank around SBD3.4 million to get the new $1 coin with the new effigy from our
supplier. The average life of the $1 coin is estimated at over 20 to 25 years before they
become worn out to be used anymore.
So, I believe the current $1 coins circulating in your pockets and wallets right now is
around 13 years old and are still in very good or good conditions. Our current stock of
the new $1 coins should last more than 3 years.
Statistics however show that the frequency of coins being issued to public through our
commercial banks are excessively high due to coins being seen on a very high
ONEWAY Traffic for reasons that are not quite clear to us at the Central Bank. But we
believe individuals and business houses could be keeping those coins in their small
piggy banks and were not allowed to circulate.
The more you hold to the coin and not circulating it through transactions, it reduces the
multiplier effect that should have occurred. This causes shortage in coins, triggering
CBSI to reorder coins more frequently from the supplier to ensure we have sufficient
supply of quality coins to meet business and public demand. This further depletes our
foreign reserves just to procure new currency notes or coins. We obviously do not want
that to happen but it is happening.
Hence, I appeal to the people of Solomon Islands that you USE your new coins with
extra care and pride but we would also advice you all to ensure that you do circulate the
coins once it comes around your way to facilitate small changes in the trades of goods
and services.
Again, our advice is: Do not store them away in containers, piggy banks or hide
them under mattresses.
Finally, I would like to thank the technical team from the Royal Australia Mint Ltd, for
assisting CBSI in the design, formalities and production of our bank coins. Our
partnership relationship with RAM, Australia had been now well around 13 years so this
is indeed a unique occasion for both CBSI and RAM.
We would also like to thank the CBSI Board of directors, Minister of Finance and
Solomon Island Government and other stakeholders in ensuring the legislative
procedures and arrangements are fully in compliance and to the success of this project
milestone. Thank you too to all the Heads of Financial Institutions witnessing the launch
for this morning as the main channel of our currency distributions.
Final acknowledgement goes to my team the Currency Launch Taskforce, Currency &
Banking Services Department and the CBSI Management team for their coordinated job
well done in making this a success.
Official Launch
Now, ladies and gentlemen, I now have the pleasure to invite the Hon Minister of
Finance and Treasury (Hon Manasseh D Sogavare) to unveil the new $1 coin with the
new effigy of His Majesty King Charles III 2025. | - Launch of the new $1 coin featuring King Charles III's effigy marks a significant milestone in Solomon Islands' currency history and development.
- The new coin highlights the continuation of the relationship between the Solomon Islands and Great Britain, as well as the partnership with the Royal Australian Mint.
- The coin retains the size and shape of the previous version, with the obverse featuring King Charles III designed by Daniel Thorne, and the reverse showcasing the Nguzu Nguzu motif symbolizing good luck and protection.
- This design signifies the Solomon Islands’ history, cultural heritage, and ties to the Commonwealth, celebrating the nation’s traditions and monarchy.
- The introduction of the new coin involves promotional events and public education to familiarize the population with King Charles III's effigy, which faces left in contrast to Queen Elizabeth II's effigy facing right.
- The launch underscores the longstanding partnership and shared values between the Solomon Islands and Australia.
- The cost of minting the new coin is SBD3.4 million, with a projected lifespan of 20 to 25 years, emphasizing the high expense of currency production.
- There is a notable issue of excessively high one-way circulation of coins, leading to shortages and repeated ordering from the supplier, affecting foreign reserves.
- An appeal is made to the public to actively circulate the coins rather than storing them, to enhance their multiplier effect in the economy.
- Acknowledgments were given to the Royal Australian Mint, CBSI Board, government, and financial institutions for their roles in the successful launch.
- The official launch of the coin involved the Minister of Finance and Treasury, marking its release into circulation. | Luke Forau | Central Bank of Solomon Islands | SB | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319a.htm | 2025-03-14T00:00:00 | José Luis Escrivá: Challenges and opportunities for the financial future of Europe | Speech by Mr José Luis Escrivá, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at a meeting of the Spanish Banking Association, Madrid, 14 March 2025. | José Luis Escrivá: Challenges and opportunities for the financial
future of Europe
Speech by Mr José Luis Escrivá, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at a meeting of the
Spanish Banking Association, Madrid, 14 March 2025.
* * *
Good morning everyone.
I would like to begin by offering my heartfelt thanks to the Spanish Banking Association
and in particular to its Chair, Alejandra Kindelán, for kindly inviting me to this event. I
would also like to acknowledge the insightful speech by Commissioner Maria Luís
Albuquerque, whose sentiments I share entirely.
We live in a time of profound change. The reshaping of the geopolitical landscape -
marked by growing tensions between the United States and China, the protracted
impact of the war in Ukraine and global trade fragmentation - is generating a climate of
uncertainty that demands a clear and resolute response from Europe.
Against this backdrop, Europe cannot afford the luxury of hesitation. This is not the time
for fragmentation or paralysis. On the contrary, it is the time for unity across all
domains, but very particularly in the economic and financial realm. In the face of
external uncertainty, Europe must negotiate and act from a position of power and
embrace its relative strengths, with robust institutions and a financial market equipped
to foster growth and stability.
With this overall picture in mind, I would first like to emphasise that our currency, the
euro, must become a key driver of economic sovereignty, especially when other regions
make unpredictable decisions that could generate significant disruptions in areas such
as banking supervision, payment systems and trade policy.
Against this deeply complex geopolitical backdrop, Europe needs concrete initiatives to
strengthen its strategic position. One area where this is particularly evident is in
payments, through the role played by the central digital bank currency in both the retail
and wholesale realms.
We are clearly on an irreversible trend towards increasingly digital money, incorporating
new technologies such as tokenisation. We must ensure that money's essential
attributes are not lost along the way, such as the assurance and security provided by
the central bank's backing, its issuance here in Europe and its distribution by institutions
under our supervision.
On the retail side, we have made significant progress since the inception of the euro
and the creation of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), particularly in transfers and
direct debits. However, in electronic payments at the point of sale, whether physical or
digital, we continue to lag behind. We lack truly European solutions. 72% of card
payments in Europe rely on international networks, leaving us highly dependent on
nonEuropean actors. This model comes at a growing cost: fees are estimated to have
increased by around 35% in the last eight years.
This situation has been compounded by the emergence of new players, such as digital
wallet providers, which have further narrowed margins. Apple Pay, for instance,
charges 0.15% per transaction. And an even greater challenge is looming: the possible
expansion of dollar-denominated stablecoins, a model actively backed by the current
US Administration, which could deepen our dependence on foreign big tech firms.
Although private initiatives such as EuroPA and Wero have sought to address these
challenges, their reach remains insufficient.
It is in this context that the Eurosystem is developing the digital euro, which aspires to
complement cash and provide a foundation for and impetus to private initiatives.
We are aware of the banking sector's concerns regarding balance limits and adaptation
costs. However, in this challenging geopolitical context the digital euro should be
regarded not as a problem but as a solution.
This is a historic opportunity to fully complete the Single European Payments Area,
lessen our external reliance in a critical sector and retain income from commercial
payments within Europe. It will also ensure that we are better equipped to address
future risks, such as the rapid expansion of dollar-denominated stablecoins.
On the wholesale front, for some years the central bank digital currency has played a
crucial role through TARGET infrastructure. Now the challenge is to adapt these
systems to recent technological advancements. Asset tokenisation and the use of
distributed ledger technology (DLT) offer potential benefits in terms of efficiency,
transparency and security. We in the Eurosystem are already working on concrete
solutions to ensure interoperability between DLT-based private platforms and TARGET
services.
This same strategic approach should guide the review of our regulatory framework. In
recent decades, regulators and supervisors have worked, in collaboration with the
banking sector, to address the structural weaknesses brought to light by the 2007
financial crisis.
As a result of the initial Basel III reforms, which were implemented in Europe in 2013,
today the European banking system is clearly more resilient. According to the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision, on the latest data available, since 2011 the
average CET1 ratio has risen from 6.4% to 14.5%, while the leverage ratio has
1
increased from 2.7% to 5%. The liquidity indicators (LCR and NSFR) are also
comfortably above the required minimum of 100%.
Notwithstanding the monetary policy measures taken by central banks or the actions
taken by governments, this greater resilience of European banks has been evidenced
by their ability to smoothly overcome recent crises, including exogenous ones, such as
the pandemic. Moreover, implementation of the 2017 Basel reforms continues to build
up financial stability.
Europe's firm commitment to Basel III is all the more important in the current setting,
and I hope it helps the jurisdictions still tackling the implementation process to take the
steps necessary.
But we must not be complacent. Financial stability calls for a sound and solvent
financial sector and for a regulatory and supervisory framework that is more simple,
stable, predictable and efficient.
There is growing consensus about excessive regulatory complexity in Europe, which
not only hampers financial institutions' operations, but also overloads the supervisory
function and could fragment the market. This is why a holistic review and streamlining
of our regulatory and supervisory framework is essential. I am not talking here about
deregulation, as we are not seeking to lower requirements or remove the regulations
that ensure the system's stability. Rather, the aim is to simplify the regulations overall,
to make them more effective.
We must consider European regulations as a whole, including level 2 and 3 standards,
to avoid overlaps and unnecessary complexity. We also need to analyse whether
regulatory zeal in level 3 may, in some instances, have gone beyond the intentions of
the legislator, and to take measures if necessary.
The current economic setting reinforces the need for these measures. Europe
continues to grow, but it does so with a worrying structural weakness: a historical gap in
private investment. In the euro area, productive private investment accounts for 12.3%
of GDP, compared with 15% in the United States and 27% in China.
To bridge this gap, Europe must drive an ambitious structural agenda. One priority is to
further European integration through policies that strengthen the Single Market, which
will enable European firms to scale up and compete globally. Deepening the Single
Market calls for simplifying the regulatory and fiscal frameworks, by reducing
fragmentation and red tape. Another priority is strengthening coordination between
national industrial policies and European public investment programmes. Public
investment must act as a catalyst for private investment, within the bounds of a State
aid governance framework that preserves the functioning of the Single Market.
The banking sector continues to be an essential cornerstone in this process. To finance
these significant investment needs, firms will continue to resort largely to external
source of financing. And the European economy is still heavily banked.
At present, bank loans account for 92% of European firms' total indebtedness, which
means that mobilising bank lending will be essential to bridge the private investment
gap.
In this regard, the pivotal role played by European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy
should be highlighted.
In response to the inflationary surge in 2021-2022, the ECB raised its interest rates by
450 basis points (bp) between July 2022 and September 2023. This tightening cycle
was unprecedented in terms of both the pace and the scale of the policy interest rate
hikes.
This decisive monetary policy action prevented the deanchoring of inflation
expectations and mitigated potential second-round effects. Euro area inflation was thus
swiftly brought down and is now close to the medium-term target of 2%.
This situation paved the way for a normalisation of monetary policy, with a cumulative
cut of 150 bp in the deposit facility rate since June 2024. The policy interest rate cuts
have gradually passed through to bank financing costs for firms.
Between October 2023 and January 2025 the average interest rate on new lending to
euro area firms decreased by 1.1 percentage points (pp), to 4.1%.
This reduction in the cost of financing spurs business investment by boosting loan
demand. Indeed, in January 2025 the stock of bank loans to euro area firms saw 2%
growth in year- on-year terms, compared with a 0.2% decline in October 2023.
In the current geopolitical environment, I would like to mention Europe's commitment to
strengthening its defence capabilities. This commitment poses major challenges from
the standpoint of both public and private financing. On the public financing front,
reaching the proposed military spending targets will require significant additional fiscal
efforts. On the private side, bank lending to the defence sector is at very low levels. In
Spain, for example, credit specifically earmarked for armament and ammunition
manufacturing has not exceeded 0.1% of total bank lending at any point in the last two
decades.
Like other long-term investments, this type of investment is characterised by high levels
of uncertainty, strict regulatory requirements and long technological development
cycles. Against this backdrop, it is important to assess whether the current regulatory
and supervisory framework provides the proper incentives to mobilise bank financing
towards this type of investment, and to analyse how the banking sector could play a
more active role in this strategic area.
However, bank credit alone cannot meet all the financing needs. The specific
characteristics of the banking business, which is subject to stringent prudential
regulations that were strengthened after the 2008 financial crisis, make it difficult for
financial institutions to provide financing for very long-term projects, particularly risky or
highly uncertain ones. Since the global financial crisis, European firms have slightly
increased their non-bank financing by issuing debt securities, whose share in the stock
of corporate debt has risen from 4.4% in 2008 to 8.1% in 2024. However, this figure
remains much lower than in the United States, where this type of financing accounts for
39.3% of the total.
This is precisely why Europe needs to foster deeper and more integrated capital
markets. Capital risk is crucial for financing innovative projects and strategic sectors,
such as technology or the energy transition. However, European early-stage investment
markets are six times smaller than those of the United States and they are concentrated
in a handful of countries, such as Germany, France and Sweden. In this connection, the
Swedish experience is particularly illustrative. Sweden has managed to develop the
EU's deepest capital market, with a stock market capitalisation volume equivalent to
170% of its GDP, well above the average 60% for the EU or 40% for Spain. A key
factor for this success was the integration of its stock market into Nasdaq-Europe, a
regional platform operating markets in Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland. By
using a dual model which combines a main market with a more flexible growth segment
(Nasdaq First North Growth Market), Sweden has helped startups and SMES gain
access to government funding, recording the highest number of new admissions to
trading in the entire continent in recent years. This experience shows that, in addition to
EU reforms under the Capital Markets Union (CMU) framework, there is room for
strengthening the capital markets at national level.
Venture capital should be a priority in Europe. Public capital plays a key role in the early
stages of innovation. For it to work effectively, it is necessary to develop agile
investment instruments that can accurately assess projects' financial and technological
aspects, harnessing the potential of European funds for co-investment and attracting
private capital. These instruments must be accompanied by measures to reduce
regulatory barriers and facilitate private capital participation. Additionally, fostering an
ecosystem in which venture capital funds have clear incentives to leverage the
opportunities arising from public support is essential.
This is why the CMU is an essential cornerstone of Europe's financial future. We must
avoid the errors of previous initiatives and adopt a pragmatic approach, with clear
objectives and efficient measures. The Banco de España strongly supports the Savings
and Investment Union (SIU), a European initiative combining the complementary
objectives of the CMU and the banking union. We are fully aligned with Commissioner
Albuquerque's view of the importance of this complementarity.
One of the most urgent aspects within the SIU is the revival of the securitisation market.
Securitisation allows banks to transfer credit risk off their balance sheets towards
nonbank investors, releasing capital for new loans. However, it is underdeveloped in
Europe. In 2022 the volume of securitisations issued in Europe was 0.3% of GDP,
2
compared with 4% in the United States. Although there are particularities in both
markets - such as the role of government mortgage agencies in the United States or
the importance of covered bonds in Europe - this difference is significant and calls for
urgent action.
We believe that the reform of the European regulatory framework should focus on
reducing its complexity, introducing greater proportionality in transparency requirements
for originators and in due diligence obligations for investors.
We also support the creation of a European securitisation platform to facilitate the
issuance of standardised securitised bonds.
1
See the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's latest Basel III monitoring report
for 2024, with data available to 2023.
2
See Mario Draghi's 2024 report on the future of European competitiveness, based on
data from the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME). | - Europe's geopolitical landscape is marked by tensions between the US and China, the war in Ukraine, and global trade fragmentation, necessitating a unified European response.
- The euro should drive economic sovereignty, especially amidst unpredictable global decisions affecting banking supervision, payment systems, and trade policy.
- Concrete initiatives are required to strengthen Europe's strategic position, particularly in the realm of digital currencies and payment systems.
- The transition to digital money using technologies like tokenisation must preserve money's essential attributes, ensuring security and central bank backing.
- Europe lags in electronic payments at points of sale, with heavy dependence on non-European networks like Apple Pay, increasing costs and vulnerability.
- The Eurosystem's digital euro aims to complement cash, enhance private initiatives, and reduce reliance on non-European tech firms.
- On the wholesale side, adapting TARGET infrastructure to new technologies like DLT is crucial for efficiency and security.
- Reviewing and streamlining the regulatory framework is necessary to avoid excessive complexity, which can fragment the market and burden institutions.
- Europe faces a private investment gap, necessitating policies that strengthen the Single Market, simplify regulations, and coordinate national and European investment efforts.
- The European banking sector, essential for financing, needs to mobilize bank lending to bridge the private investment gap.
- Recent ECB monetary policy actions, including interest rate hikes, have stabilized inflation, allowing for subsequent policy normalisation and lower financing costs for firms.
- Europe's commitment to strengthening defense capabilities presents a challenge, with significant fiscal efforts needed and low levels of bank lending to the defense sector.
- Enhancing capital markets is essential, with a focus on venture capital, reducing regulatory barriers, and utilizing the CMU to promote savings and investment union.
- Reviving the securitisation market is urgent, requiring a simplified regulatory framework and a European securitisation platform to mobilize nonbank investment. | Jose Luis Escrivá | Banco de España | ES | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250317a.htm | 2025-03-14T00:00:00 | Chang Yong Rhee: Sustainability challenges in Korea | Keynote speech by Mr Chang Yong Rhee, Governor of the Bank of Korea, at the Global Engagement & Empowerment Forum 2025 on Sustainable Development "Time for Action: Bridging Divides for a Sustainable Future", organised by the Yonsei University, Seoul, 14 March 2025. | Chang Yong Rhee: Sustainability challenges in Korea
Keynote speech by Mr Chang Yong Rhee, Governor of the Bank of Korea, at the Global
Engagement & Empowerment Forum 2025 on Sustainable Development "Time for
Action: Bridging Divides for a Sustainable Future", organised by the Yonsei University,
Seoul, 14 March 2025.
* * *
I. Introduction
Ladies and gentlemen, distinguished guests, I am Rhee Changyong, Governor of the
Bank of Korea.
It is an honor to join the Global Engagement & Empowerment Forum (GEEF) to discuss
building a sustainable future. I sincerely thank Yonsei University President Yun
Dongseob, former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, and everyone who made this
event possible. I am also pleased to reconnect with former World Bank President Jim
Yong Kim after my time in Washington, D.C.
Over the years, the GEEF has brought together global leaders, international
organizations, businesses, and stakeholders to explore solutions for achieving the
United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). I hope this forum continues
driving practical solutions to today's sustainability challenges.
I am here to share Korea's perspective on these issues. Some people say, "The
Governor of the Bank of Korea is overstepping his bounds," because I speak on social
issues beyond monetary policy. Discussing the SDGs today may reinforce that
perception. While central bankers debate their role in such discussions, sustainability
challenges directly impact our economy and daily lives. For this reason, I cannot remain
indifferent-not just as a central bank governor, but also as a citizen.
Sustainability takes many forms, but today I will focus on two urgent challenges for
Korea's economy. The first is climate change, a global crisis affecting everyone. The
second is our declining birth rate and aging population, a challenge that is especially
severe in Korea.
II. Climate Change
There is global and domestic consensus that human activities drive global warming and
reducing carbon emissions is essential. However, Korea faces significant resistance to
accelerating carbon reduction due to its heavily export-oriented economy dominated by
high-carbon manufacturing industries. Strengthening emission reduction policies and
environmental regulations raises concerns about export companies losing
competitiveness. Thus, balancing urgent carbon reduction with sustaining industrial
competitiveness has become a central issue.
However, climate change should not be viewed solely from the perspective of export
industries. It is a crisis directly affecting our daily lives and quality of life. We are already
experiencing more extreme heat waves, frequent flooding, and the gradual
disappearance of familiar fruits and vegetables. Our summer rainfalls used to be
predictable, but not anymore. If Los Angeles can experience massive wildfires, what is
stopping Korea from experiencing similar disasters? Climate change is not distant-it is
occurring now, and its impacts are unavoidable.
Air quality is a clear example. Last week, I visited Cape Town, South Africa, for a BIS
meeting. While it was winter in Korea, it was summer there, with warm weather, a
refreshing sea breeze, and remarkably clean air. Within days, I realized, "This is truly
clean air." Upon returning to Incheon Airport, I immediately felt a headache-not just
from the flood of emails about economic and political concerns, but also from the
noticeably poorer air quality. Korea's air quality has improved recently, but after
experiencing cleaner air in Washington, D.C., I can clearly sense the difference. As
someone sensitive to lung health after experiencing long COVID, this difference is
especially noticeable. Although conditions have improved, fine dust remains a serious
issue.
Statistically, the cost of deteriorating air quality is undeniable. Over the past 15 years,
diagnoses of atopic dermatitis and allergic rhinitis have doubled, and cases of heat
exhaustion have quadrupled, now totaling 4,000. Climate change directly threatens our
health, making the challenges of protecting public health increasingly severe as
temperatures rise and pollution worsens.
Another example is the increased frequency of sudden downpours, repeatedly flooding
Seoul's Gangnam Station area, one of Korea's wealthiest neighborhoods, submerging
numerous luxury vehicles over the past several years. Beyond property damage, the
human toll has been devastating. Just two years ago, 14 people tragically lost their lives
when an underpass collapsed after 500mm of rain fell in thirteen days. Observing these
intense summer storms reminds me of tropical squalls typically seen in Thailand or
South America.
The Korea Meteorological Administration now classifies rainfall exceeding 50mm per
hour or 90mm over three hours as "extreme heavy rain," conditions responsible for 80%
of flood damage. These extreme events have more than doubled since the 1970s.
Given these dramatic changes, it is unclear whether our current flood prevention
infrastructure-such as dams, embankments, and drainage systems-can handle the
intensifying conditions. About 20% of national river embankments are already rated as
"inadequate" or "poor," and projections suggest half of Korea's dams may fail to prevent
flooding by 2040. We must proactively strengthen infrastructure now to withstand
growing climate challenges.
Third, climate change is disrupting our food supply. Last year, I faced criticism from
agricultural stakeholders after suggesting apple imports due to soaring prices (Im et al.,
2024). Initially, I anticipated resistance primarily from traditional apple-growing regions
like Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province. However, apple production areas are
gradually shifting northward. Apple cultivation in Daegu-Gyeongbuk has decreased by
nearly half compared to 30 years ago. Once grown nationwide, except for the southern
coast and Jeju Island, projections suggest high-quality apples will only be viable in
Gangwon Province's mountainous areas by the 2030s, due to rapid climate change
(Rural Development Administration, 2022). Within a decade, importing apples will likely
become a necessity rather than controversial.
The fishing industry faces similar disruptions. Pollack, once a staple in Korea, has
nearly vanished from local waters, with catches below one ton since 2019. Traditional
species like croaker and anchovies are declining, while warmer-water species like
yellowtail and mackerel are increasing. Korea's fishing industry must rapidly adapt by
modernizing vessels, gear, and aquaculture techniques to match the changing marine
ecosystem.
While countless examples exist, the core message is clear. Climate change is not just a
challenge for export industries-it already deeply impacts our daily lives and various
domestic sectors. Thus, addressing climate change and reducing carbon emissions is
not a matter of choice-it is an urgent necessity.
Although the government has initiated policy efforts, substantial progress remains
necessary. First, Korea's Green Taxonomy (K-Taxonomy) must align with international
standards to clearly define "environmentally friendly" activities, signaling strong support
for carbon reduction. Second, carbon pricing must be more realistic. Last April, the
global average carbon price was approximately $30 per ton, reaching $60 per ton in the
EU, compared to only $6 per ton in Korea. At this price, companies find it more
economical to buy emission credits than reduce emissions, undermining carbon
reduction targets. Third, structural improvements to Korea's Emissions Trading System
(K-ETS) are needed. Gradually reducing the 90% free allocation rate and tightening the
emissions cap will create stronger market incentives for effective emissions trading.
The Bank of Korea is also increasing its efforts by conducting financial stress tests on
climate-related risks. Financial institutions traditionally manage risks like loan defaults
and real estate fluctuations, but climate-driven risks introduce unexpected tail risks not
yet fully considered. Events like Los Angeles' wildfires or Australia's six-month wildfire
crisis in 2019 are not distant threats. They serve as warnings for Korea. Severe
localized climate damage could cause significant financial losses for households and
businesses, destabilizing financial institutions and spreading shocks throughout the
economy.
Thus, the Bank of Korea actively researches climate risks' impacts on our industries
and financial system, conducting stress tests with financial institutions under various
scenarios. Next Tuesday, we will present these climate stress test results at a joint
conference with the Financial Supervisory Service.
Bank of Korea employees are also committed to reducing carbon emissions through
research (Kim et al., 2024) and daily practices. Believing even small actions matter, we
have adopted eco-friendly measures such as using recycled-paper business cards,
reducing plastic use, turning off unused lights, and implementing license plate-based
driving restrictions.
III. Ultra Low Fertility and an Aging Population
Beyond climate change, one of the most pressing sustainability challenges is our
demographic crisis-an aging population combined with extremely low fertility rates.
Korea's total fertility rate slightly rose to 0.75 in 2024 from 0.72 in 2023. Although this
small uptick is welcome, a fertility rate of 0.75 remains a national emergency. If this
trend continues, Korea faces an irreversible population crisis that threatens economic
stability and social cohesion.
Some people suggest that population decline might have benefits, such as reduced
pollution, lower energy consumption, and higher GDP per capita, possibly enhancing
quality of life. However, this view dangerously oversimplifies the issue. A fertility rate of
0.75 leads not to gradual decline but rapid demographic collapse, undermining
economic and social stability. By contrast, the OECD average fertility rate of 1.4 results
in a more manageable and sustainable population decline.
The difference between fertility rates of 0.75 and 1.4 significantly impacts economic
growth prospects. At 0.75, Korea's population would shrink from 51.7 million to 30
million in 50 years, just 58% of today's figure, declining annually by 1.1%. In contrast, at
a rate of 1.4, the population decline is less severe, reaching 43 million-83% of today's
level-with an annual drop of 0.4%. From a purely demographic standpoint, the
difference in GDP growth between these two scenarios would amount to 0.4
percentage points annually. But the true cost goes beyond this simple calculation. A
declining youth population, crucial for innovation, entrepreneurship, and economic
dynamism, would severely undermine Korea's long-term growth potential. According to
a recent Bank of Korea study, Korea's potential growth rate, currently around 2%, may
approach near 0% by the late 2040s (Lee et al., 2024). If the fertility rate remains at
0.75, Korea will inevitably face prolonged negative economic growth after 2050.
Conversely, at 1.4, Korea could maintain positive economic growth well into the future.
Beyond GDP, persistently low fertility will create substantial fiscal strain, increasing the
burden on younger generations. As the elderly population surges, spending on
pensions, healthcare, and elder care will rise significantly. According to the National
Assembly Budget Office (2025), Korea's national debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 46.9%, is
projected to reach 182% within 50 years if fertility remains at 0.75. If fertility improves to
1.4, the ratio would increase more slowly, reaching 163%. The burden on young
Koreans will become particularly overwhelming. Currently, four working-age individuals
support each elderly person. At a fertility rate of 0.75, this ratio will decline to one-to-one
within 50 years. At 1.4, however, it remains more manageable, easing strain on future
generations.
Moreover, economic instability from demographic shifts increases society's vulnerability
to populism. Stagnant growth exacerbates income inequality, deepens generational and
class divides, and fuels political polarization. Politicians and governments may resort to
populist fiscal policies, such as direct cash handouts and temporary welfare measures,
providing short-term relief without addressing underlying issues. Such policies risk
creating a cycle of fiscal inefficiency and mounting national debt, exacerbating rather
than resolving the core problems.
To preserve economic sustainability, decisive action must be taken urgently. If Korea's
fertility rate remains critically low without significant expansion of the workforce through
foreign labor, the country risks chronic negative growth, soaring debt, and escalating
social tensions. Avoiding this scenario requires raising the fertility rate to a more viable
level. Completely reversing population decline may be unrealistic since many advanced
economies face similar demographic challenges, but Korea cannot afford to remain
passive. At a minimum, we must strive to reach the OECD average fertility rate of 1.4.
Why has Korea's fertility rate fallen so drastically? The answer lies in structural barriers
discouraging young people from marriage and parenthood. Bank of Korea studies
indicate young Koreans delay or forgo marriage and childbirth due to intense
competition and anxieties over employment, housing, and childcare. Young people
today face fierce competition for scarce, high-quality jobs, making career stability
difficult. Simultaneously, soaring housing prices make homeownership seem
unattainable. Under these pressures, raising children is more than challenging-it is an
overwhelming financial and emotional burden.
A major driver of this crisis is the extreme concentration of population and economic
activity in the Seoul metropolitan area. A recent Bank of Korea study analyzing fertility
trends in 35 OECD countries identified Korea's urban concentration as among the
highest globally, pinpointing it as a key factor behind the country's ultra-low fertility
(Hwang et al., 2023). Over 50% of Korea's GDP, population, and jobs are concentrated
in the Seoul metropolitan area-much higher than 5% in the U.S. and Germany, 10-20%
in the U.K. and Italy, 20-30% in France, and 30% in Japan. While Korea's rapid
economic development-the "Miracle on the Han River"-transformed the country into an
economic powerhouse, it also centralized infrastructure, talent, and opportunities in
Seoul. Consequently, young people continue migrating to the capital for career
prospects, draining vitality from regional economies and pushing many toward
demographic extinction.
Korea's highly competitive university entrance system further reinforces the population
concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area. Admission to prestigious universities is
considered essential-not only for stable employment but also for social status and
marriage prospects. This fuels intense competition for limited spots at elite universities,
overwhelmingly located in Seoul. Private education has become critical, prompting
families to relocate to Seoul's affluent areas like Gangnam-gu, known for high-quality
private educational infrastructure. Many parents unable to afford homeownership
instead rely on costly rental housing to secure educational advantages. This strategy
appears justified, as students from Seoul account for 32% of admissions to Seoul
National University (SNU), despite representing only 16% of school-age population.
More strikingly, students from Gangnam-gu alone constitute 12% of SNU admissions,
three times the district's 4% share of school-age residents (Chung et al., 2024).
Relocating to Gangnam-gu is thus seen as essential for top university admission,
intensifying Seoul's population density, raising housing prices, and worsening the
fertility crisis.
Korea's university admission system is excessively competitive by any standard.
Parents sacrifice their quality of life and retirement savings, investing considerable
resources to secure their children's admission to elite universities. Paradoxically, this
intense pursuit of academic success imposes a heavy cost on both parents and
children. From as early as kindergarten, students experience relentless pressure and
burnout, depriving them of childhood joys and a healthy adolescence.
Korea's critically low fertility rate (0.75), extreme population concentration in the Seoul
metropolitan area, and overheated university competition seem like separate issues but
are deeply interconnected. Left unresolved, these challenges-drastic population decline,
persistent negative economic growth, escalating social tensions, and diminishing
opportunities for youth-will push Korea toward an unsustainable tipping point.
Addressing these structural issues simultaneously is challenging, yet the urgency
demands bold action. Recognizing this, the Bank of Korea recently proposed two policy
suggestions: foster a limited number of regional hub cities and implement a "regional
proportional admission system" for universities.
First, to effectively reduce the extreme population concentration in the Seoul
metropolitan area, we must strategically develop a small number of regional hub cities.
Over the past two decades, regional development policies have been introduced to
address this imbalance. However, due to political challenges and efforts to evenly
distribute resources nationwide, these initiatives have been too fragmented to
meaningfully curb Seoul's dominance.
According to Bank of Korea research, the optimal approach-given Korea's land area
and population-is to concentrate substantial investments in two to six carefully selected
regional hub cities. Targeted, large-scale investment in critical infrastructure, such as
healthcare, education, and cultural amenities, is essential to providing a quality of life
comparable to Seoul, thus effectively attracting and retaining residents (Chung et al.,
2023, 2024). Pursuing this focused strategy will rebalance population distribution,
revitalize regional economies-including surrounding smaller cities-and achieve
sustainable national development.
In parallel, bold reforms to Korea's college admissions system are essential. The Bank
of Korea has proposed a "regional proportional admission system," where universities
voluntarily allocate admissions based on each region's proportion of high school seniors
(Chung et al., 2024). Despite multiple revisions to university entrance system,
excessive competition in university admissions remains unresolved. BOK's new
proposal seeks to enhance universities' autonomy in admissions while strongly
requiring balanced regional representation-a crucial step to address extreme
competition. Adopting this system offers several benefits. First, it reduces the
disproportionate influence of socioeconomic factors such as parental wealth and private
education, thus significantly enhancing social mobility. Second, dispersing admissions
competition from Seoul would ease demographic pressures, stabilize housing prices,
and improve fertility rates. Third, attracting students from diverse regions promotes
mutual understanding, social cohesion, and reduces regional disparities.
This proposal does not require government intervention or legal amendments, relying
instead on the willingness and initiative of leading universities. In Korea, there remains
a strong belief that selecting students based solely on academic scores is the fairest,
leading resistance to this proposal. Some universities argue they already implement
regional proportional admissions for roughly 15% of their freshmen. However, such
limited quotas can stigmatize these students and have insufficient impact on
demographic or housing pressures in Seoul. To be effective, regional proportional
admissions must be applied to most incoming students' admissions. In many advanced
nations, regional diversity in admissions is widely accepted and encouraged. I believe
Dr. Jim Yong Kim, joining us today and a former president of Dartmouth College,
understands this issue well. He could highlight how Korea's test score-based
admissions approach is an exception globally, and how this reform could realistically
occur through proactive leadership at major universities.
In my view, allowing universities greater flexibility in evaluating applicants-under
regional proportional requirements-would better acknowledge and fairly recognize
diverse talents. Human talent is far too diverse to be measured by academic tests
alone. Yet, Korea's current admissions system prioritizes a narrow skillset:
memorization, quick mathematical calculations, and rapid text summarization under
time pressure. These skills, overly rewarded by standardized exams, limit the range of
recognized talents. I happen to possess these particular skills and was a major
beneficiary of Korea's college admission system. However, if asked to write a creative
essay over a week, I might not have excelled. Today, elite university students often
share certain defining characteristics such as a personality that diligently follows
instructions without rebellion, a willingness to endure 15 years of repetitive study from
kindergarten, an IQ high enough to handle the academic workload, but not so high as to
question or challenge its purpose.
When Korea's primary goal was catching up with more advanced nations, the current
educational system was beneficial in developing individuals who excelled at following
orders and carrying out assigned tasks. However, with Korea now at the forefront of
global technological competition, we need people unafraid to explore new frontiers,
bringing diverse backgrounds and innovative thinking. Additionally, we must foster an
environment that encourages collaboration, creativity, and meaningful interaction. It is
time for universities to broaden their evaluation criteria and nurture diverse talents by
implementing regional proportional admissions.
The challenges highlighted today-climate change and demographic crisis-pose critical
threats and require urgent action. Korea has achieved remarkable economic progress,
joining the ranks of advanced nations. Now we must focus on enhancing individual
wellbeing, ensuring prosperity and happiness for all citizens. Through bold decisions, we
can develop vibrant, youth-friendly, green regional hubs that combat climate change
and support marriage and childbirth. The Bank of Korea remains fully committed to
securing a sustainable, prosperous future for upcoming generations.
Thank you for your time and attention.
This speech was prepared with the assistance of Sanghun Park and Joonki Min from
the Office of Sustainable Growth, and Inro Lee and Inkyung Yoo from the Economic
Research Institute.
References
Kim J. Y., Ryu G. B., Hwang J. H., Kim H. J., Kim H. N., Lee H. A., and Sim S. B. 2024.
"The Impact of Climate Change Risks on the Real Economy: Analysis by Climate
Response Scenarios." BOK Issue Note No. 2024-30, Bank of Korea.
Rural Development Administration. 2022. "Prediction of Changes in Cultivation Areas
for Six Major Fruits Considering Climate Change Scenarios." Press Release.
Lim W. J., Lee D. J., Lee Y. S., and Park C. H. 2024. "Characteristics and Implications
of Korea's Price Levels: A Comparison with Major Countries." BOK Issue Note No.
2024-14, Bank of Korea.
Chung M. S., Kim E. J., Lee H. S., Hong S. J., and Lee D. R. 2023. "Interregional
Population Migration and Regional Economy." BOK Issue Note No. 2023-29, Bank of
Korea.
Chung M. S., Lee Y. H., Yoo J. S., and Kim E. J. 2024. "Analysis of Regional Economic
Growth Factors and Balanced Development Focused on Hub Cities." BOK Issue Note
No. 2024-15, Bank of Korea.
Chung J. W., Lee D. W., and Kim H. J. 2024. "Adressing Social Issues Steming from
Excessive Competition in College Admissions." BOK Issue Note No. 2024-26, Bank of
Korea.
Hwang I. D., Nam Y. M., Sund W., Shim S. R., Yeom J., Lee B. J., Lee H. R., Chung J.
W., Cho T. H., Choi Y. J., Hwang S. W., and Son M. K. 2023. "Lowest-low Fertility and
Super-aged Society: Causes and Impacts of the Extreme Population Structure, and
Policy Options." In-Depth Analysis, Korea Economy Outlook, Bank of Korea.
Lee E. K., Chun D. M., Kim J. W., and Lee D. J. 2024. "Potential Growth Rate of the
Korean Economy and Future Outlook." BOK Issue Note No. 2024-33, Bank of Korea.
Lim W. J., Lee D. J., Lee Y. S., and Park C. H. 2024. "Characteristics and Implications
of Korea's Price Levels: A Comparison with Major Countries." BOK Issue Note No.
2024-14, Bank of Korea.
National Assembly Budget Office. 2025. "2025-2072 NABO Long-Term Fiscal Outlook." | - **Sustainability Challenges**: Focus on climate change and demographic crisis impacting Korea's economy.
- **Climate Change**: Urgent need for carbon reduction in Korea's high-carbon export industries while maintaining competitiveness.
- **Impact on Daily Life**: Climate change leads to extreme weather, poor air quality, health issues, food supply disruptions, and infrastructure challenges.
- **Government Initiatives**: Advocate aligning Korea’s Green Taxonomy with international standards, realistic carbon pricing, and structural improvements in Emissions Trading System.
- **Bank of Korea Actions**: Conducting financial stress tests on climate-related risks and promoting eco-friendly practices.
- **Demographic Crisis**: Low fertility rate (0.75) poses threat to economic and social stability, with potential population collapse and economic downturn.
- **Economic Implications**: Low fertility and aging population risk negative economic growth, fiscal strain and increased national debt.
- **Policy Suggestions**: Development of regional hub cities and implementing "regional proportional admission system" for universities.
- **Addressing Urban Concentration**: Propose strategic investment in regional hubs to balance population distribution and economic activity.
- **Educational Reforms**: Encourage regional diversity in university admissions to reduce competition and social disparities.
- **Broader Evaluation Criteria**: Suggest broader criteria in admissions to recognize diverse talents beyond standardized tests.
- **Long-Term Vision**: Enhance individual well-being and prosperity through bold, strategic decisions to combat climate change and demographic challenges. | Chang Yong Rhee | Bank of Korea | KR | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319j.htm | 2025-03-17T00:00:00 | Sanjay Malhotra: Transforming grievance redress – the AI advantage | Inaugural address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the Annual Conference of the RBI Ombudsmen, Mumbai, 17 March 2025. | Sanjay Malhotra: Transforming grievance redress - the AI advantage
Inaugural address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at
the Annual Conference of the RBI Ombudsmen, Mumbai, 17 March 2025.
* * *
I am delighted to participate in this year's Annual Conference of the RBI Ombudsmen.
The Reserve Bank has been organising this conference on or around the World
Consumer Rights Day, that is, 15th March. World Consumer Rights Day is celebrated
every year with the aim of raising global awareness about consumer rights and needs.
We organise this conference to reflect on our achievements with regard to consumer
services and to deliberate on how to improve services and reduce grievances. We need
to improve consumer services, not only because it is our duty to do so, but because it is
in our selfish interest to do so. In this age of competition, we would not survive long if
we do not provide quality service to our consumers.
We have made tremendous strides in improving consumer services over the years. We
have enabled internet banking and mobile banking. Most of the banking services, be it
opening a deposit account, or taking a small loan have been digitised, adding to the
convenience and speed. We are making record number of digital transactions through
UPI and other means of digital payments. Many among the younger generation may
have never visited a bank branch. We have even enabled opening of accounts using
video KYC.
While we have enhanced customer experience over the years, the high number of
customer grievances continues to be a matter of serious concern. I am told that last
year (2023-24), the 95 Scheduled Commercial Banks alone received over 10 million
complaints from their customers. If we take into account the complaints received at
other RBI-regulated entities (REs), the number would be even higher. One may argue
that this amounts to only four complaints per thousand accounts per year as there are
about 2.5 billion bank accounts. But, for us, even one complaint is a cause of concern.
We have 10 million complaints and with the rapidly growing customer base and
expanding suite of products, this may grow, if we do not get our act together.
Customer satisfaction - a cornerstone for banking and other financial
services
Excellent customer service, in fact excellent customer experience is a sine qua non in
any service industry. Our effort should be to enhance the total customer experience.
The experience should be such that there is no cause for a grievance that requires a
redress. Let me state a fundamental truth: every complaint is a test of trust. When a
consumer files a grievance - whether for a disputed transaction, a lapse in service,
inappropriate pricing or charges or an unfair practice - it is a signal that our system has
fallen short. Left unresolved, such issues can erode consumer confidence and tarnish
the entire ecosystem.
I am reminded of a real story about customer service. Some of you, especially the
management graduates, may have heard it but it is so appropriate for today's theme
that it is worth being retold. In the winter of 1975, in a town in Alaska, a man walked into
a store and complained to the salesman present that the snow tyres that he bought
some time ago were not holding. The salesman was a little puzzled. He said that he
could not replace them but will check what he could do and went to the back of the
store. Those of you, who have visited departmental stores in the USA, would know that
refunds are processed at the back of the store. The salesman came back after some
time and handed over some cash as refund and the customer left satisfied. Can anyone
guess why this was unique, as no questions asked policy for refunds is fairly common in
the USA? It is because the company in question is Nordstrom which does not even sell
tyres. It sells apparel and shoes. But, for Nordstrom, customer comes first. Trusting him
and winning his trust is more important than anything else.
Some say that this is not a true story. How is this possible? How could a company offer
refund for a product which it never sold? Nordstrom, however, insists that this incident
did take place. Nordstrom had acquired three stores from another company that sold
miscellaneous articles including tyres. The customer did not realise that the store had
changed and walked in with his complaint. The key message is that Nordstrom saw
itself being in the business of customer service, and not just selling goods. We too need
to realise that we are in the business of providing unalloyed customer service and not
just selling banking and other financial services.
Top management to accord priority to customer service
I am sure you will all agree that we are indeed in the business of customer service.
However, I suspect that we are not spending enough time on customer service and
grievance redressal as a result of which not only are there a large number of complaints
being received by banks and NBFCs but in the absence of satisfactory resolution, a
large number of them are getting escalated to RBI Ombudsmen.
Let me give you some perspective. The number of complaints received under RBI's
Integrated Ombudsman Scheme increased at a compounded average growth rate of
almost 50 per cent per year over last two years to 9.34 lakh in 2023-24. The number of
complaints processed at the Office of RBI Ombudsman increased by 25 per cent from
about 2,35,000 in 2022-23 to almost 2,94,000 in 2023-24. Not only are large number of
complaints getting escalated, a large proportion of them - nearly 57 per cent of the
maintainable complaints last year - required mediation or formal intervention by the RBI
Ombudsmen. You would all agree that this is a highly unsatisfactory situation and
needs our urgent attention.
I would, therefore, strongly urge all the MD&CEOs, Zonal and Regional Managers and
the Branch Managers to spend some time every week, if not every day on grievance
redressal. This is a must. All great CEOs find time to do it. We too must keep some time
in our diary for improving customer service and grievance redressal.
Improving customer service systems
Customer complaints aren't a nuisance - they are in fact opportunities to improve,
innovate, and build trust. Handling them well can define your success. Each unresolved
grievance is a missed opportunity for regulated entities to reaffirm customer trust and
loyalty. It is also a warning signal as repeat complaints are often signs of systemic
flaws. Today, complaints often surface on social media even before reaching official
channels, highlighting the need for proactive measures.
The effort thus should be to not only resolve the complaints but also to ensure that the
same type of complaint does not arise again. Many of the complaints like digital
transaction disputes, unauthorized charges, or miscommunication frequently recur.
These are clearcut symptoms of underlying issues in the overall customer service
framework of the regulated entities. A thorough root cause analysis should be
performed for each complaint so as to enable remedial action and avoid repetition of
same type of complaint.
In fact, I would go a step further. Best service is not one in which there is no occasion
for grievance redressal but one in which there is no occasion for the customer service
department to step in. Systems should work seamlessly and conveniently so that
customers do not have to call the branch or the customer service centre or talk to
anyone in the Bank or NBFC. Systems have to be so user-friendly that customers can
rely on self-service rather than being dependent on anyone else.
Improving internal grievance redressal systems
While improving systems to reduce grievances is important, setting up a robust
grievance redressal system is equally important for all regulated entities. I would urge
you all to review the same. While the regulations do not make any prescription for the
organisational structure for grievance redressal, my experience suggests that there
should be at least two levels for grievance redressal in large REs, with unresolved
grievances getting escalated from the lower to the higher level. The highest level should
be at a fairly high rank. This to ensure that requests do not get rejected without having
been examined by a senior functionary who is empowered to take decisions in
consumer interest. This will help reduce grievances getting escalated to the
Ombudsman. It must also be ensured that there are sufficient number of grievance
redress officers at all levels including in the Internal Ombudsman office.
I would also like to draw your attention to the misclassification of complaints as
requests, queries, and disputes by the regulated entities. This results in the
complainants' grievances remaining unaddressed. Moreover, this is also a gross
regulatory violation.
Major areas of service improvement
Let me now briefly allude to some of the major areas where we need to improve. These
relate to KYC, digital frauds, mis-selling, and aggressive recovery practices.
As for KYC, we need to ensure that once a customer has submitted documents to a
financial institution, we do not insist on obtaining the same documents again. Once the
customer has updated his details, for example, his residential address, with one
regulated entity of any financial sector regulator, it gets updated in CKYCR and other
REs are notified of the updation. PML Rules made by the Department of Revenue in the
Ministry of Finance and RBI's Master Directions on KYC mandate regulated entities to
check the CKYCR system before seeking KYC documents for opening an account.
However, most banks and NBFCs have not enabled the same in their branches
/business outlets, causing avoidable inconvenience to customers. This may be
facilitated early. This will be in the interest of all.
Another important issue connected to customer protection is rising digital frauds. It is a
matter of great concern that innocent customers continue to fall prey to scamsters.
While this could be attributed to rise in digital transactions and innovative methods
adopted by fraudsters, lack of customer awareness is also a major reason for the same.
To mitigate this menace, REs not only need to put in place robust internal controls but
also enhance digital financial literacy.
The issues of mis-selling and aggressive recovery practices have been highlighted
earlier too. In this context too, I would request you to keep consumer interest supreme.
Embracing technology - the AI way
Let me now come to the theme of this year's conference: AI's potential to revolutionize
grievance redressal. We are entering an exciting era where technology, particularly
artificial intelligence (AI), can drive remarkable improvements in speed, accuracy, and
fairness of complaint resolution.
AI can help categorize incoming complaints by urgency, complexity, or subject area,
ensuring minimal delay in reaching the right people or the right team. AI can also help in
optimising complaint routing. Further, it can assist in decision-making and reducing
processing time.
Secondly, AI can be used to pinpoint systemic gaps by analysing both structured and
unstructured data such as emails, chat logs, and call transcripts. This will aid in
identifying training needs and guiding necessary process reforms. Using data from
millions of consumer branch visits, call centre logs, mobile apps, and social media, a
unified, AI-driven view of all these interactions can help identify common pain points
more efficiently. Leveraging data analytics, sentiment analysis, and predictive models,
AI can be used to analyse large volumes of data to detect spikes in issues - such as
ATM failures or erroneous charges - and alert REs pre-emptively.
Lastly, in a linguistically diverse country like India, AI-driven chatbots and voice
recognition tools can eliminate language barriers by operating in local languages.
Moreover, the implementation of conversational AI in chatbots, voicebots, and
advanced IVR systems can handle routine queries round the clock, thereby freeing
people to focus on cases that require empathy and complex problem-solving.
In short, integrating AI at every stage - from complaint lodging to closure - can result in
a seamless, efficient, and data-driven grievance redressal system. Such a framework
not only reduces processing times and addresses repetitive complaints but also fosters
equitable outcomes by mitigating human biases. It is time that the banking industry
explores and pioneers the integration of technology - including AI - to strengthen the
grievance resolution mechanisms and make it best in class across the globe.
Challenges and guardrails in AI driven grievance redressal system
While AI presents unparalleled opportunities, we need to be cognizant of the challenges
and risks that its adoption poses. There are concerns on data privacy, algorithmic bias
and complexity in AI-driven models. As we embrace AI in grievance redressal or any
other process, we must also remain mindful of ethical considerations. Human oversight,
bias mitigation and data privacy must be integrated into the AI Systems to ensure
transparent and consistent outcomes.
Investing in human resources
While technology in all its forms is a powerful enabler, I would like to emphasise that it
is no substitute for integrity, empathy, and human judgment. In a world increasingly
driven by data, algorithms, and automation, it is all too easy to lose sight of the human
element. Every transaction represents not just a number in a ledger, but the
hardearned savings of a family, the dreams of a small entrepreneur, or the lifelong savings
of a senior citizen. It is, therefore, critical that REs continue to invest in human
resources dedicated for customer service and grievance redressal. It is essential to
invest in training of staff, especially in behavioural aspects of customer service.
Moreover, the staff needs to be empowered to take decisions based on their judgement
to redress consumer grievances, enhance customer satisfaction and win consumer
trust.
RBI as a facilitator
In the end, I would like to assure you that, while we exhort you to provide services
efficiently to customers, we in the Reserve Bank shall also provide various services,
approvals, clarifications, etc. to the regulated entities in a timely manner. We already
have a citizen's charter. We are in the process of reviewing the charter. We will make
the charter comprehensive to include all services that we offer either to the REs or
directly to citizens. Moreover, we are reviewing the timelines for each service. It will be
our endeavour to provide all approvals, etc. within the timelines. We are also making
mandatory the use of PRAVAAH, which is RBI's secure and centralised web-based
portal for any individual or entity to seek authorisation, license or regulatory approval on
any reference made to the Reserve Bank in a timely manner. This will help us in
expediting the disposal of applications received by the Reserve Bank.
Conclusion
We stand at a pivotal juncture as India looks to realise its dream of a more resilient and
inclusive Viksit Bharat . With the financial sector touching the lives of almost the entire
population, we have a critical role. To succeed in this role, we must continue to
enhance customer service and customer protection.
Thank you ! | - Emphasized the importance of improving consumer services to ensure survival in a competitive market.
- Highlighted significant advancements in digital banking and the convenience it provides.
- Expressed concern over the high volume of customer complaints, stressing the need for enhanced grievance redressal.
- Stressed that customer satisfaction is fundamental and unresolved grievances can erode trust.
- Urged management to prioritize grievance redressal, emphasizing the importance of handling complaints efficiently.
- Suggested detailed root cause analysis for complaints to enable systemic improvements.
- Proposed a dispute-free system where customer service is intuitive and seamless.
- Called for robust grievance redressal mechanisms, urging entities to have a structured approach with escalation protocols.
- Identified KYC, digital fraud, mis-selling, and aggressive recovery as key areas needing improvement.
- Discussed the potential of AI in revolutionizing grievance handling by improving speed, accuracy, and efficiency.
- Highlighted AI’s role in categorizing complaints and detecting systemic issues, advising the use of AI to break language barriers.
- Warned of AI adoption challenges such as data privacy and bias, stressing ethical considerations.
- Emphasized the importance of human judgment and empathy in customer service.
- Stressed the need for ongoing investment in training and empowering staff for better grievance handling.
- Affirmed RBI’s commitment to supporting regulated entities through efficient service provision and regulatory processes. | Sanjay Malhotra | Reserve Bank of India | IN | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324a.htm | 2025-03-17T00:00:00 | José Luis Escrivá: Address at the presentation of the 20th King of Spain Prize in Economics | Address by Mr José Luis Escrivá, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the presentation of the 20th King of Spain Prize in Economics, Madrid, 17 March 2025. | José Luis Escrivá: Address at the presentation of the 20th King of
Spain Prize in Economics
Address by Mr José Luis Escrivá, Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the presentation of
the 20th King of Spain Prize in Economics, Madrid, 17 March 2025.
* * *
Good afternoon.
Firstly, I would like to thank Your Majesty for being present at today's King of Spain
Prize in Economics award ceremony and for gracing this institution with your
attendance once again.
The King of Spain Prize in Economics was established in 1986 by the Fundación José
Celma Prieto. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the foundation's president,
Javier Celma, for continuing the generous patronage his father began.
For this twentieth edition of the award, it has been my honour to preside the prize jury,
made up by Álvaro Rodríguez Bereijo as vice-president, José Ramón Álvarez
Rendueles, José Luis Feito Higueruela, Julio Segura, Carmen Reinhart and Carmen
Herrero Blanco.
Following its deliberations on 29 October last year, the panel resolved to award the
King of Spain Prize in Economics to Roberto Serrano for his brilliant academic and
research trajectory, reflected in the quantity and quality of his publications. The prize
winner is also an example of personal merit and dedication to the community as an
economist.
Roberto Serrano was born in Madrid in 1964 and holds a degree in Economics from the
Complutense University of Madrid, where he started his teaching career as an assistant
lecturer. He was subsequently awarded a Fundación Ramón Areces Fellowship and a
Fulbright Fellowship, which enabled him to pursue his M.A. and PhD studies at Harvard
University. He completed his PhD there in 1992 under the direction of professors
MasColell, Maskin (2007 Nobel Prize in Economics) and Green. Serrano became a
professor of economics at Brown University in 1997, when he was only 33 years old,
and is currently the Harrison S. Kravis Professor at Brown University.
Professor Serrano defines himself as an economic theorist. Economic theory works with
abstract and mathematical models to shed light on the functioning and behaviour of the
economy. And within economic theory, Serrano has specialised in microeconomics,
which focuses on the behaviour of individuals and firms as economic agents.
Microeconomics is often overshadowed by macroeconomics, which deals with large
aggregates and dominates economic news. This is why microeconomists often receive
less attention and recognition. This prize rightfully acknowledges the centrality (which I
believe is growing) of microeconomics in economic science. As the availability of
microdata and the computational capacity for processing them has grown, not only has
it become necessary to develop new empirical instruments to analyse them, but also
new microeconomic conceptual models to understand the logic and fundamentals of the
results obtained.
In the realm of microeconomics, professor Serrano is recognised globally as a leading
authority in game theory, which studies strategic decisions made by individuals or
"players" in situations where each participant's outcome depends on the decisions of
others.
Among his numerous research contributions are his studies on the non-cooperative
aspects of cooperative game theory and his work on designing mechanisms that steer
players' behaviour towards achieving the best outcome for everyone involved, even
without mutual cooperation. He also made a significant contribution to risk
measurement by developing a risk index in 2008 in collaboration with Nobel laureate
Robert Aumann.
Roberto Serrano has published over 80 papers on economics, game theory, operational
research and applied mathematics in high-impact academic journals. Ten of these
articles have appeared in some of the most prestigious economics journals.
Roberto's primary concern is improving our understanding of economic reality, thereby
fostering societal development. His aim is to better comprehend market mechanisms
and economic agents' incentives in order to help design policies that increase social
well-being.
Teaching and sharing knowledge are also integral to his work. He has authored two
textbooks, on intermediate microeconomics and welfare economics, which are widely
used in universities around the world. As a professor, he has won high praise from his
students and has received several awards for his excellence in teaching.
He was included in "The Best 300 Professors", a guidebook published by The Princeton
Review for "finding teachers with the power to change your life". In it, the 300
highestrated professors are selected from 60 different academic fields based on interviews with
millions of undergraduate students in the United States.
Roberto was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 2013 and a Fellow of the
Game Theory Society in 2017. Among his editorial work, his role as editor-in-chief of
Economic Letters between 2011 and 2017 is noteworthy.
Roberto Serrano has achieved all this after overcoming great challenges, as he was
diagnosed with retinitis pigmentosa when he was a teenager, which made him
progressively lose his sight until he became completely blind. Thanks to his
determination and the support of his father, Carlos, he was able to finish his university
studies with excellent grades. Indeed, the tribute paid to Carlos Serrano by the
Complutense University in 2005, with the attendance of his son, was entirely fitting.
Fourteen years later, Roberto himself was awarded the title of doctor honoris causa by
his alma mater, as a testament to his exceptional merit and personal dedication to the
good of the community.
Your Majesty, thanking you once again for your presence at this ceremony, it only
remains for me, with your permission, to ask the prize winner to step up to receive the
20th King of Spain Prize in Economics. | - Roberto Serrano awarded the 20th King of Spain Prize in Economics for his outstanding academic and research contributions in economic theory and microeconomics.
- Serrano is recognized for his work in game theory, particularly in non-cooperative aspects of cooperative game theory and mechanism design.
- Developed a risk index in collaboration with Nobel laureate Robert Aumann, significant for risk measurement.
- Published over 80 academic papers in high-impact journals and authored two widely used textbooks on microeconomics and welfare economics.
- Acknowledged for improving the understanding of market mechanisms and economic agents' incentives, aiming to enhance social well-being through policy design.
- Recognized for his teaching excellence, included in The Princeton Review's "The Best 300 Professors".
- Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society in 2013 and the Game Theory Society in 2017; served as editor-in-chief of Economic Letters.
- Overcame personal challenges, including blindness due to retinitis pigmentosa, with determination supported by his father, Carlos Serrano.
- Awarded honorary doctorate by the Complutense University of Madrid for his exceptional merits and community dedication. | Jose Luis Escrivá | Banco de España | ES | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319m.htm | 2025-03-17T00:00:00 | Denny H Kalyalya: Think before you follow, safeguard your money | Speech by Dr Denny H Kalyalya, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Launch of the 2025 Financial Literacy Week, Lusaka, 17 March 2025. | Denny H Kalyalya: Think before you follow, safeguard your money
Speech by Dr Denny H Kalyalya, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, at the Launch of the
2025 Financial Literacy Week, Lusaka, 17 March 2025.
* * *
Permanent Secretary, Southern Province, Dr Namani Monze
The District Commissioner, Mazabuka District, Mr Oliver C. Mulomba
All Senior Governmental officials
Chief Executive Officers of Financial Sector Regulators - PIA and SEC
All Chief Executive Officers of Financial Services Providers
All Cooperating partners
Invited Guests
Ladies and Gentlemen
Good morning
I am delighted to extend a warm welcome to all of you joining us for the launch of this
year's public awareness campaign for the Financial Literacy Week. This launch event
was pre-ceded by the broadcasted message from the Minister of Finance and National
Planning, on 16 March 2025. The FLW activities will take place from March 17 to 23,
2025, in all the 10 provinces of the Republic of Zambia. For the first time since we
started to commemorate Financial Literacy Week, the event is being launched away
from Lusaka, in Mazabuka, Southern Province. I commend the organizers for this
change and I hope that future launch events will be held in different provinces every
year.
The theme for this year, "Think before you follow, safeguard your money," aligns with
the official theme of the 2025 Global Money Week and has been adopted for the
Financial Literacy Week in Zambia.
This year's theme underscores the importance of adopting an informed, responsible,
security-conscious approach to managing personal finances. Therefore, individuals are
encouraged to be mindful of potential risks in the financial sector and take steps to
protect their hard-earned money. These risks include financial scams, fraud, theft,
pyramid schemes, cyber-attacks, and other threats related to data privacy. In line with
this year's theme, I urge consumers of financial services and products to actively
safeguard their money by engaging only with licensed financial service providers. I also
encourage you to be cautious about sharing financial information as well as diligently
protect your personal data. Avoid sharing sensitive financial information, such as
account numbers or passwords, with unknown individuals or over unsecured platforms.
Additionally, be vigilant for phishing schemes, and be sceptical of unsolicited emails,
messages, or phone calls requesting personal or financial information.
Finally, I encourage you to report any suspicious financial requests or digital invitations
to the authorities, such as financial service providers (FSPs), ZICTA, or the Police.
Ladies and Gentlemen, financial literacy initiatives continue to focus on young people in
primary, secondary, and tertiary institutions as well as adults, with the aim of equipping
future generations with the essential knowledge needed to make informed financial
decisions for their financial well-being.
In this regard, financial education has been incorporated in the national school
curriculum and financial literacy initiatives continue to be undertaken in collaboration
with the Ministry of Education.
Esteemed Guests, we firmly believe that the development and execution of national
strategies concerning financial education and inclusion have established a robust
framework that facilitates effective engagement among various stakeholders, including
the Government, financial sector regulators, financial service providers, and the general
public. This collaborative effort has led to heightened awareness campaigns among the
public regarding the availability and safe usage of financial products and services
nationwide. Strengthening financial literacy among consumers would enable them to
identify financial scams, fraudulent activities and avoid biased advice, thus helping them
to make better financial decisions to safeguard their future well-being. In this regard
with the conclusion of the National Strategy on Financial Education II (2019-2024), the
Ministry of Finance and National Planning, along with the Bank and other financial
sector regulators, have begun the process of conducting a comprehensive review of the
strategy. The review will assess the progress, successes, and challenges of NSFE II,
and guide the development of phase III of the N S F E.
Ladies and Gentlemen, in order to measure the strides that have been made in
advancing financial education and financial inclusion in the country, I would like to
inform you that a multisectoral project team has been established to conduct the 2025
FinScope Survey and disseminate topline findings by the end of this year.
FinScope surveys are invaluable tools for understanding the financial landscape of a
country and developing targeted financial education and financial inclusion strategies.
The survey provides information on access and usage of financial services (formal
/informal), barriers encountered, financial literacy and overall financial inclusion.
Enumerators will conduct interviews across all ten provinces, so we appeal to you, the
public, to provide them with the necessary support.
Distinguished Guests, before I conclude, let me take this opportunity to remind you that
the Bank of Zambia announced the introduction of a new family of Zambian Currency
on Monday, 10 February 2025 (pursuant to section 17(1) of the Bank of Zambia Act,
2022).
The initiative reflects the Bank's commitment to providing currency that is secure,
efficient, user friendly and well suited for everyday transactions. The new notes also
offer advanced security features to protect against counterfeiting and other threats to
the integrity of the currency. A nationwide awareness campaign is currently being
conducted to sensitize the public about the new currency. Further, the Minister of
Finance and National Planning will soon issue an SI to provide details for the process of
exchanging the old currency for the new series, scheduled to commence on 31 March
2025.
As we carry out the 2025 Financial Literacy Week provincial activities, I encourage the
campaign teams and financial service providers to continue to educate the public about
the new family of Zambian Currency to prevent people being defrauded by
unscrupulous people who may take advantage of this change. The Bank of Zambia
team will also be available to provide information and distribute awareness materials
that highlight the key features of the new currency.
Dear Invited Guests, in conclusion, it is important to acknowledge that as part of the
implementation of the National Strategy for Financial Education, Financial Literacy
Awards are held annually in October. These awards aim to recognize the efforts of
individuals and institutions in conducting financial literacy awareness initiatives.
Therefore, I urge you to submit your financial literacy activities and initiatives to the
Financial Literacy Working Group for consideration in this year's awards.
Once again, I extend my gratitude to the Working Group under the National Strategy on
Financial Education Phase II for organizing the Financial Literacy Week activities. I
particularly commend the Ministry of Finance and National Planning Financial
Education Team, along with other financial sector regulators such as the Pensions and
Insurance Authority and the Securities and Exchange Commission. I also wish to
applaud the Bankers Association of Zambia, and our collaborating partners DSIK (the
German Sparkassenstiftung) Zambia, as well as all other stakeholders who have
consistently supported the Financial Literacy Week commemorations each year.
The Bank of Zambia remains steadfast in its commitment to supporting this national
event, and we encourage all financial institutions and stakeholders to actively
participate in the Financial Literacy Week activities nationwide.
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING MAY GOD BLESS US ALL. | - Emphasized the theme "Think before you follow, safeguard your money," highlighting the importance of informed, responsible, and security-conscious financial management.
- Urged individuals to be wary of financial risks such as scams, fraud, and cyber-attacks, recommending engagement only with licensed financial service providers.
- Encouraged caution in sharing financial information and personal data, suggesting vigilance against phishing schemes and reporting suspicious activities to authorities.
- Highlighted ongoing financial literacy initiatives focusing on young people and adults, in collaboration with the Ministry of Education, to equip future generations with essential financial knowledge.
- Discussed the development and execution of national strategies on financial education and inclusion, aiming for effective stakeholder engagement and heightened public awareness of financial products.
- Announced the establishment of a multisectoral team for the 2025 FinScope Survey to assess progress in financial education and inclusion, with public cooperation requested for interviews.
- Reminded attendees of the introduction of a new family of Zambian Currency, with advanced security features, and ongoing nationwide awareness campaigns for currency exchange.
- Encouraged education about the new currency to prevent fraud during the exchange period starting 31 March 2025.
- Promoted Financial Literacy Awards to recognize efforts in financial literacy awareness, urging submissions to the Financial Literacy Working Group.
- Acknowledged contributions from the Ministry of Finance, financial regulators, and collaborating partners in organizing Financial Literacy Week activities.
- Reaffirmed the Bank of Zambia's commitment to supporting Financial Literacy Week and urged financial institutions to participate actively in nationwide activities. | Denny H Kalyalya | Bank of Zambia | ZM | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250325a.htm | 2025-03-18T00:00:00 | Olli Rehn: Eurozone outlook and European Central Bank monetary policy | Opening remarks by Mr Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the MNI Connect Video Conference, Helsinki, 18 March 2025. | Olli Rehn: Eurozone outlook and European Central Bank monetary
policy
Opening remarks by Mr Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the MNI Connect
Video Conference, Helsinki, 18 March 2025.
* * *
Presentation accompanying the speech
Let me first thank MNI for inviting me to speak at this conference. To kick off, I will
briefly discussthe economic outlook in the eurozone and the current lines of thought in
the ECB's monetary policy.
In presenting my remarks here, I will focus particularly on how the significant shifts in
world politics of recent weeks will, in my view, affect the euro area economy and the
European Central Bank's monetary policy.
Slide 2: Geopolitics dominates economic outlook
Geopolitics currently dominates and weighs on the outlook for the global economy, and
does so with exceptional force.
Russia's illegal, brutal war of aggression in Ukraine has been going on for more than
three years. It has shaken the European security order, and more recent events since
the Munich Security Conference a month ago have marked a major disruption in the
world order - in a way that is dangerous for Europe. This has forced the European
Union to seek to strengthen its common defences.
It is clear that the United States is undergoing a fundamental change of direction both in
its foreign and security policy and in its domestic political development. This is not
necessarily just a temporary phenomenon, but may be a more permanent turn in US
politics. And US foreign policy is now operating under a very different kind of rationality
than it used to.
"America first" trade policy in the US is profoundly protectionist but highly unpredictable.
There will be no winners in a trade war. Tariffs and the related uncertainty will hit
investment and slow down growth everywhere. The latest indicators on the US
economy point to weaker than expected growth, which would also affect growth
prospects in Europe.
As a result of the turmoil in world politics in recent weeks, Europe has woken up to the
necessity of strengthening common defence. The situation is acute, and many EU
countries, led by Germany, have announced significant decisions to increase defence
spending. Europe is now taking action and responding to the challenge of forming and
financing a common, strong defence.
These defence investments will have to be made in a situation where the public deficits
of EU Member States are already large. However, the investments required for defence
are of such a magnitude that they cannot be financed simply by increasing taxation or
cutting other public sector expenditure. It is therefore, in my view, justified, in the short
term, to utilize the flexibility elements included in the EU's new fiscal rules, provided that
longer-term debt sustainability is not compromised.
This is why we also need common European financing solutions, implemented in a way
that strengthens our common security and accelerates joint procurement and
production - I am thinking of air defence and drone production, for example.
Slide 3: Bank of Finland's scenario calculation: A trade war would weaken growth
worldwide
Recent statements from the United States about imposing import tariffs have raised the
threat of a trade war in the global economy. An analysis published a week ago by the
Bank of Finland illustrates the significant risks that a trade war would pose to economic
growth.
The study assumes that the United States would impose a 25% tariff increase on all
imports from the euro area and a 20% increase on all imports from China. It also
assumes that the euro area and China would impose equivalent tariffs on the United
States. Moreover, the calculations take into account the potential economic effects of
increased uncertainty affecting economic policy.
The scenario demonstrates that there are no winners in a trade war. As a result, world
GDP would decline by more than 0.5% per year. The effects on the euro area and
China would be even greater. A key aspect of a trade war is the rise in uncertainty,
which we are already witnessing and which could lead to a reduced willingness to
investment among businesses.
Efforts should, in any case, be made to prevent the threat of a trade war through a fair
negotiated solution to mitigate the negative effects on growth. To support a negotiated
solution, Europe should be prepared to respond to the imposition of tariffs with potential
countermeasures.
It must also be said that when a brutal war is being fought on European soil, a trade war
is the last thing we need right now - especially among allies.
Slide 4: Growth in the euro area economy picking up gradually
US tariffs and increased uncertainty are already having adverse effects on economic
growth outlook in the euro area in the immediate and near term.
Europe's response to the deterioration of the security situation will have its own effects
on European economies, which are very difficult to quantify at this stage.
The growth outlook for the euro area remains subdued. According to the ECB's March
forecast, growth in the euro area is gradually picking up, but at a slower pace than
expected, and growth risks are on the downside.
In addition to cyclical factors, the euro area economy is also experiencing structural
problems. In the ECB's new forecast, productivity growth is slower than before. The
weakness appears to be more structural than previously. But it would be wrong to say
that it is entirely structural.
One - if not the only - reason for Europe's slow productivity growth is precisely the
weak development of investment in recent years. The background is a great deal of
uncertainty fuelled by geopolitics, but there were also tight financial conditions for a long
time.
Let me reveal that I don't belong to those who makes a crystal-clear distinction between
structural and cyclical factors - it would be against my macroeconomic training. Rather,
I see the distinction as a line drawn in water. Here, I feel like applying a giant of
economics: "In the long run, we will all retire. But in the meantime, we need more
productive investment."
In other words: although the euro area's longer-term challenges of growth and
competitiveness cannot be solved by monetary policy, the fall in interest rates brings
welcome room for manoeuvre for households and companies. Rate cuts have been
supportive of the investments that are required to improve productivity. Of course, in the
long term, the level and growth of investments is determined by their expected real
returns.
Although there is little to be positive about in the security situation in Europe, the
expected increases in defence spending and investment are at least likely to support
GDP growth over the medium-term.
Slide 5: Euro area inflation stabilising at the 2% target
Inflation in the euro area is stabilising at the ECB's 2% target. The path of disinflation
has been pretty much in line with forecasts. Wage inflation has largely decelerated, and
forward-looking wage indicators point to a clear slowdown in wage growth. Most
measures of core inflation which excludes energy and food prices also point to a
sustained convergence of inflation around the 2% target over the medium term.
Risks to the inflation outlook are two-sided. Protectionism in world trade dampens
growth and increases uncertainty about the inflation outlook. Geopolitical tensions pose
a wide range of risks to the energy market, consumer confidence and corporate
investment.
Slide 6: ECB's decision to ease monetary policy spurred by inflation stabilising and
growth weakening
The ECB's latest decision to ease monetary policy leaned on the fact that inflation is
stabilising and growth weakening. Thus, the Governing Council decided to cut the key
policy rate by 25 basis points.
The rate cut was the sixth since we started easing monetary policy. Since last June, the
deposit facility rate has been lowered by a total of 1.5 percentage points, from 4% to
2.5%. Monetary policy is thus becoming meaningfully less restrictive.
The decision was based, as usual, on three elements: the inflation outlook, the
dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
We are not pre-committed to any interest rate path. Policy rates are set at each meeting
based on the latest information and our comprehensive assessment, next time on 17
April. The Governing Council retains full freedom of action in times of pervasive
uncertainty.
Slide 7: Europe is under challenge from the world of geopolitics - investment is needed
now in security and productivity
Let me now conclude. The world is now experiencing a transition of potentially similar
magnitude as 30 years ago, when the Berlin Wall fell, the Cold War ended and Europe
united. At that time, the evolution of humanity took a step forward and security rooted in
cooperation was strengthened.
Today the world only is in reverse gear: power politics has returned in a brutal way with
Russia's invasion, the United States is standing by Russia and playing
sphere-ofinfluence politics, and China is challenging the entire international order.
But we must be able to navigate even in this geopolitically difficult terrain. With the
Munich Security Conference, Europe has received yet another wake-up call.
At the same time, we must focus on our own economic problems. Europe needs
investments in productivity growth - in human capital and in research and innovation.
Protectionism highlights the need to complete the single market and expand the EU's
network of free trade agreements.
The stabilisation of inflation and the weakening of the growth outlook have supported
monetary policy easing since last summer. The ECB's monetary policy has been
reasonably successful in bringing inflation down without inflicting unnecessary pain to
the real economy.
The past few weeks have shown that Europe must urgently get its act together and
stand united in the face of external security threats. In the coming weeks and months,
Europe will have to demonstrate that it is taking action and meeting the challenge of
strengthening its defence. There is no time to waste.
Thank you very much. I am happy to take any questions you have. | - Geopolitical tensions, especially Russia's aggression in Ukraine, dominate the economic outlook, creating significant challenges for the eurozone and necessitating strengthened EU defense measures.
- The US's shift towards a protectionist "America first" trade policy poses risks of a trade war, potentially harming global GDP and euro area growth by increasing uncertainty and reducing investment.
- Europe is responding to security threats with increased defense spending, despite already large public deficits, and is encouraged to use EU fiscal rule flexibility without compromising long-term debt sustainability.
- To counteract the trade war threat, Europe should pursue fair negotiated solutions while preparing potential countermeasures.
- The euro area economy is experiencing gradual growth but faces structural problems, such as slow productivity growth linked to poor investment due to geopolitical uncertainty and previously tight financial conditions.
- The ECB has eased monetary policy, including multiple rate cuts, to support growth and productivity investments, as inflation stabilizes around the 2% target.
- Inflation stabilization reflects deceleration in wage inflation and convergence of core inflation, but risks remain due to protectionism and geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets and investment.
- Europe faces a geopolitical transition requiring investment in security and productivity, emphasizing the need for cooperation and expansion of the EU's free trade agreements.
- The ECB's recent monetary policy easing has succeeded in reducing inflation without significant harm to the real economy.
- Europe must urgently unite and address security threats while focusing on economic growth through investments in human capital, research, and innovation. | Olli Rehn | Bank of Finland | FI | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319e.htm | 2025-03-18T00:00:00 | François Villeroy de Galhau: Venturing into open waters to unlock Europe's innovative potential | Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Euronext Annual Conference 2025 "Building the Savings and Investments Union for real", Paris, 18 March 2025. | Speech
Economy
Venturing into open waters to
unlock Europe's innovative potential
Published on the 18th of March 2025
Euronext Paris - Building the Savings and Investments Union for real
Paris, 18 March 2025
Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de
France
Ladies and Gentlemen, dear Stéphane,
I am pleased to attend this birthday celebration: Euronext is 25 years old,
only one year younger than the euro. And both are remarkable examples
of European success and pride. Yet, to deliver fully, both need to be
complemented with greater economic and financial integration. I cannot
agree more with what Commissioner Albuquerque just said.
A decade ago, when the Capital Markets Union appeared,
macroeconomic stabilisation was its foremost priority. Today, the
overriding objective for our rebranded Savings and Investments Union
(SIU) is to ensure an efficient capital allocation, to fund our investment
needs. This story has been going on for so long that it often raises
doubts: why would the project take off now? I suggest three reasons for
hope. First, it has gained political ownership since last year, and in
particular since the Letta report. Second, today, Europe may be coming
into its own. D. Trump seemingly aspires to break it, but he may be
achieving the opposite. And there can be no strategic and military
autonomy without economic and financial sovereignty. Finally, we are
beginning to focus on a limited number of strong actions rather than the
long list of small items (36 !) in the 2020 action plan. As I am at
Euronext's annual conference, I will focus on corporate equity for building
i
a stronger economy. I will first elaborate on our "Schumpeterian gap "
and its twin deficits (I). I will then suggest three milestones to scale up
European equity and innovation financing (II).
1. The twin deficits of our
"Schumpeterian" gap: innovation and
equity
1.1. Don't forget Draghi
Let me first remind the obvious. Europe lags behind on growth,
productivity and innovation. Cumulative GDP growth per capita in the
United States between 1999 and 2023 reached 39%, against 26% in the
euro area. European companies invest, as a share of GDP, only half as
much in research and development (R&D) as their American
counterparts. In the meantime, our investment needs have hardly ever
been greater: if we add "Rearm Europe" to the famous Draghi figures, EU
would have to invest an additional EUR 900 billion yearly to remain
competitive in key sectors, such as the environmental and digital
transitions, defence and innovation.
ImageThématique Gouverneur Catégorie Discours
Investments needs under Draghi report's assumptions
This effort would account for more than 5% of our GDP. Yet, public
resources are scarce and we cannot ramp up fiscal spending indefinitely.
ii
Only four global Top 50 tech companies are European. . However, during
the last decade in Europe, total tech industry workforce has increased
sevenfold compared to the previous decade and total capital invested
iii
rose tenfold , showcasing a positive dynamic.
So much for a clear-headed diagnosis. Now, what is the therapy? Before
coming to its financial aspects, I want to stress the importance of
economic remedies and structural reforms I see with some concern the
"D" of Defence eclipsing and even crushing the "D" of Draghi in our
public debate today. The Letta and Draghi reports and the Commission's
"competitiveness compass" last February call for three imperatives -
three "Is" - that cost nothing in fiscal terms: (i) 'Integrate more' the single
market, particularly in services; (ii) 'Invest better', particularly in energy
and technology; and (iii) 'Innovate faster', by cutting red tape. If we don't
do this together, quickly and decisively, Europe's strategic autonomy
would once again be lost in the sands of economic decline.
1.2. Equity, our new frontier
But there is a financial component to the treatment. I won't deal this
evening with public funding, which is the only option for defence: the
German shift is welcome. The Bundestag vote today is a game changer
for Europe, a historical breakthrough. The French challenge is more
difficult, because we have squandered too much of the 'peace dividends'
in the past on spending on everyday comforts. Private funding is more
promising: the European challenge is not a lack of it, but its
misallocation.
The EU has considerable private savings, amounting to 5,5% of GDP
iv
yearly, against 3,4% in the US. . However, the structure of European
households' financial portfolios reveals a predominance of low-risk
assets.
ImageThématique Governor Housing market and household wealth
Catégorie Speech
Equity is more widespread in American than European portfolios
US households allocate more than 50% of their portfolios to riskier
assets, whereas these account for only a third of the assets of European
households. Moreover, European private savings surplus (around 300
billion in 2023) are channelled across the Atlantic to fund US corporates
or public debt, rather than European companies.
Europe's economy does not lack credit financing; it lacks equity funding.
We can pride ourselves on having a robust banking sector. Banking
assets weight 300% of GDP in the EU, against only 85% of GDP in the
US. Debt market-based financing is relatively less developed in the euro
area than in the US, and used predominantly by larger companies. But
the real gap lies in equity: equity financing of non-financial corporations
amount to 215% of GDP in the US, compared to 88% in the euro zone.
Equity financing of European non-financial corporations is limited
Equity capital financing allows for longer-term horizons, greater flexibility
and higher risk tolerance, which are necessary in frontier technologies.
This aspect is key, as the bulk of the productivity growth gap between
France and the United States over the period 2000-2019 stems from IT-
v
intensive sectors. .
We all know that total market capitalisation is about four times lower in
Europe. European venture capital remains underdeveloped in comparison
with the United States in all segments, from early to late stage funding.
VC funds raised from 2013 to 2023 amounted to 0,36% of GDP in the US,
while it represented a mere 0,07% of GDP in the EU, with some
heterogeneity between European countries.
Us venture capital funds raise more than their European counterparts
Furthermore, we remain reliant on foreign VC to fund European
innovation, for more than 50% of late-stage investments in European
tech.
2. Three milestones to scale up
European equity and innovation
financing
Let me now set out three milestones to scale up European equity and
innovation financing. We should be taking the best from America, and
leaving the rest. Let us become more simple, more innovative, more risk-
friendly.
2.1 Harmonisation and simplification over
deregulation to unlock growth
When it comes to regulation, we need less and more: less rules, more
harmonisation. Contrary to a strong wind blowing from across the
vii
Atlantic, I have argued that "simplification is not deregulation" . We
stick to the objectives of financial stability and climate, but we reduce
complexity. In this regard, the EU Commission's first proposed Omnibus
directive is welcome as it alleviates the regulatory burden on European
SMEs and intermediate-sized entities, but its balance will have to be
fine-tuned. We could possibly streamline somewhat MIFID, and keep the
Retail Investment Strategy simple.
Additionally, greater harmonisation brings clarity. Euronext's pioneering
spirit in launching the single prospectus initiative - S1 - is commendable
- a concrete step towards reducing market fragmentation. We welcome
the emergence of "coalitions of the willing" among private actors, who
are moving forward within the existing regulatory framework. But we
should seek ingenious workarounds to accelerate the process, such as a
viii
28th regime creating an optional, harmonised legal framework in key
areas such as corporate law, labour, and taxation. We should always
seek to reduce the European market fragmentation that limits our
ix
effective market size, hindering firms' ability to scale up. . And we need
a greater harmonisation of supervision. ESMA's direct supervision of
x
crypto-asset services providers and cross border systemic market
infrastructures such as CCPs and CSDs would be a significant step
towards a unified capital market.
2.2. More innovative: boosting European
venture capital
A well-functioning equity financing ecosystem is a prerequisite for
scaling companies; from venture capital allowing start-ups to develop
breakthrough technologies, to private equity for growth and to listed
markets for further expansion. Strengthening the pipeline from early-
stage funding to market exit - whether through IPOs or strategic
acquisitions - would help retain high-growth firms in Europe. The
underdevelopment of European VC is rooted in the fragmentation of our
financial markets and tax regimes, the risk aversion of institutional
investors and the limited role of pension funds, which amount to only
30% of EU GDP (against 136% in the US).
The Tibi initiative launched in France in 2019, has enabled to channel
long-term institutional capital into equity financing of innovative and
growing tech companies. "Tibi-labelled" funds have mobilised a total of
EUR 13 billion for 2020-2026, effectively doubling insurers' participation
xi
in VC fundraising rounds . This success inspired Germany's "WIN
initiative", aiming to raise EUR 12 billion between 2025 and 2030.
Complementing national initiatives, a new version of the European Tech
Championship Initiative (ETCI), open to private investor could be
boosted. We should complement this with much stronger public-private
partnerships, with European public capital supplementing pari-passu
cross-border private funds. To date, this initiative has gathered a funding
of EUR 4,15 billion, a favourable yet insufficient amount to bridge the
scale-up gap in Europe. Encouraging institutional investors to diversify
their asset allocation through regulatory adjustments and incentive
xii
structures could unlock substantial capital, as proposed by the IMF .
2.3. Fostering a culture of well-informed
risktaking
Eventually, we have to sail closer to the wind. To unlock our untapped
growth and innovation potential, fostering a culture of well-informed
risktaking is essential.
A competing explanation pointed out by entrepreneur Olivier Coste is
that our innovation deficit stems not only from fragmented markets or
insufficiently deep and liquid capital markets, but from the cost of failure
xiii
deriving from overprotection of some stakeholders . Our system could
evolve to a more Danish style "flexisecurity", and improved insolvency
law possibly through the 28th regime. Corporate restructuring costs may
be up to ten times higher in countries with stronger employment
xiv
protection legislation - in that case for highly qualified workforce -,
such as France or Germany, undermining profitability and
competitiveness. This factor especially affects the tech sector, where
projects have a greater risk of failure. It discourages venture capital and
private equity funds from investing in Europe.
With a more audacious mindset, investments are also concentrated on
xv
high-risk, high-impact projects . The US and China have built their
technological and industrial leadership by channelling capital into bold,
transformative ventures, particularly in sectors like AI, biotech, and green
energy. By contrast, Europe often favours too incremental innovation, in
fairly mature sectors, and excessive fragmentation in its public and
xvi
private investments , - the so-called "Middle-Technology trap",
stressed among others by Jean Tirole.
Financial education is another key pillar of the SIU. A better-informed
public is more likely to engage in capital markets - with a reduced home-
bias -, ensuring that European households savings are efficiently
allocated to productive investments rather than sitting in low-yield
deposits.
Let me conclude: Europe has strengths to leverage: stable institutions,
high-quality human capital, advanced infrastructures, as well as
abundant savings. We need to mobilise all available assets towards a
common ambitious and meaningful goal. Let's not downplay the
obstacles we are facing, nor the international headwinds. But let's have
more of an American virtue: self-confidence. The stoics teach us that we
are not defined by external events, but by how we choose to respond to
them. Or as Seneca states: "We cannot direct the wind, but we can
adjust the sails".
Schumpeter | Banque de France", speech at College of Europe, 31 March
2021.
ii These four companies are: SAP, ASML, Schneider electric and Spotify.
Source: CompaniesMarketCap. Largest tech companies by market cap.
Accessed March 2025.
iii Atomico, "The State of European Tech 2024", Executive Summary,
December 2024.
iv OECD. National Accounts - Gross Saving, United States. OECD Data
Explorer. (Accessed March 2025)
Revisiting
v See figure 3 in Bunel, S., Clymo, A., Garnier, O., & Zago, R.,
the European performance gap vis-à-vis the United States, Bloc-notes Éco,
Banque de France, February 28, 2025.
vi Lagarde (C.), "Follow the money: channelling savings into investment and
innovation in Europe" Speech at the 34th European Banking Congress,
European Central Bank (ECB), November 22, 2024.
vii Villeroy de Galhau (F.), "Towards a realistic simplification: untying some
knots in European
banking regulations", Banque de France, February 6,
2024.
viii Von der Leyen (U.), Lagarde (C.), "Europe must act now to strengthen
its competitiveness", Financial Times, February 2025.
ix Bordon, A. R., Di Leno, L., Monteiro, J., & Vanhala, J. et al. Europe's
Productivity Weakness: Firm-Level Roots and
Remedies. IMF Working
Paper No. 25/40, International Monetary Fund.
supervision:
x Barbat-Layani (M.-A.), Villeroy de Galhau (F.), "European
crypto first! | Banque de France", Banque de France, 14 November 2024.
xi France Invest (2023). Le capital-investissement Venture et Growth en
France - Étude 2023. February 2023.
xii International Monetary Fund (IMF), "Europe Can Better Support Venture
Capital to Boost Growth and
Productivity", July 2024.
xiii Coste (O.), Europe, Tech and War, Amazon, November 2022.
The Cost of Failure and the Quest for
xiv Coste, O. and Coatanlem, Y.
Competitiveness: Disruptive Innovation as a Catalyst. IEP Policy Brief No.
24, IEP @ Bocconi. 2024.
xv Tirole (J.), "L'Europe prend le risque de devenir une figurante", Le Point,
30 janvier 2025.
Innovation Policy: How to Escape the Middle
xvi EconPol Europe, "EU
Technology Trap", Policy Report, February 2024. | - **Need for Economic and Financial Integration**: Emphasized the necessity of greater integration to fully leverage the euro and Euronext’s potential.
- **Shift in Priorities**: Transition from Capital Markets Union's focus on macroeconomic stabilization to the new aim of efficient capital allocation through the Savings and Investments Union (SIU).
- **Political and Strategic Considerations**: Highlighted political ownership post-Letta report and the need for economic sovereignty to achieve strategic autonomy, especially amidst external pressures.
- **Innovation and Growth Deficits**: Europe lags behind in growth, productivity, and innovation, with significant investment needs in environmental, digital, defense, and innovation sectors requiring an additional EUR 900 billion annually.
- **Equity Gap Focus**: Stressed the importance of equity over debt financing, noting the scarcity of European top tech companies and the abundant yet misallocated savings in low-risk assets.
- **Fragmentation in VC and Private Funding**: Underdeveloped venture capital in Europe with a large reliance on foreign VC for tech growth, highlighting the need to strengthen domestic funding mechanisms.
- **Regulatory Harmonization**: Advocated for simplified yet effective regulations to reduce market fragmentation and enhance financial market clarity and supervision, such as the first proposed EU Omnibus directive.
- **Innovative Financing Solutions**: Encouraged a robust equity financing ecosystem from VC to listed markets, citing initiatives like France's Tibi and Germany's WIN as models to channel institutional capital effectively.
- **Cultural Shift towards Risk-taking**: Called for fostering a culture of informed risk-taking to overcome innovation deficits, pointing to improved insolvency laws, and reduced overprotection as catalysts.
- **Financial Education**: Emphasized the importance of financial literacy to effectively engage the public in capital markets and better allocate savings for productive investments.
- **Conclusion**: Urged leveraging Europe’s strengths, advocating for a self-confident approach amid global challenges, drawing inspiration from the adaptability exemplified by Seneca. | François Villeroy de Galhau | Banque de France | FR | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319h.htm | 2025-03-18T00:00:00 | Sarah Hunter: Monetary policy - forward looking and data dependent in the face of uncertainty | Speech by Ms Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit, Sydney, 18 March 2025. | Speech
Monetary Policy: Forward Looking and
Data Dependent in the Face of Uncertainty
Sarah Hunter*
Assistant Governor (Economic)
The Australian Financial Review Banking Summit
Sydney - 18 March 2025
I would first like to pay respect to the traditional and original owners of this land, the Gadigal people of the Eora
Nation, to pay respect to those who have passed before us and to acknowledge today's custodians of this land.
I also extend that respect to any First Nations people joining us here today.
Introduction
Three weeks ago, the Reserve Bank Board cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Naturally there is a lot of
interest in what lies behind the Board's decision-making process. Today I want to shine a light on three key inputs
to the process, how they interact with one another and how they fit together to support the Board in its
decision making.
The first is our view of how changes in the cash rate affect the economy. The impact of policy changes takes time
to flow through the economy; looking at the response of banking credit flows to interest rate changes,
which many here today know intimately, clearly highlights this. So policy decisions today shape inflation and
employment outcomes in the future.
This necessitates a forward-looking approach to meeting our mandate. Policy decisions require both a view of
the outlook for the economy and an understanding of how policy is likely to affect that outlook. That helps the
Board set the cash rate to give the best chance of achieving the RBA's objectives over time.
The second is how we form our view of the outlook - our baseline forecast - and how it responds to incoming
data. When we talk about being 'data dependent', we are referring to the way we update our view of where the
economy is and the outlook. The implication of continuously updating our view on the outlook means we also
continuously update our policy advice to the Board; the future pathway for the cash rate is not predefined.
Finally, I will say a bit about the Board's approach to setting policy under uncertainty. In practice we are uncertain
about both the outlook for the economy, and the effect of monetary policy, and this complicates policy
decisions. Under uncertainty, policy depends on more than just the central forecast - judgements about the risks
and uncertainties matter too. That's why, as we have discussed on a number of occasions recently, it's important
to consider alternative possible pathways for the economy and how policy would have to respond.1
Monetary policy is forward looking ...
Central bankers and macroeconomists often say that monetary policy impacts the economy with a lag.2
So, if inflation moves away from our target, or employment falls below full employment, monetary policy cannot
immediately offset those moves. Instead, central banks have to look ahead. Ideally we would know when and by
how much the economy is going to move away from our targets in the future. Knowing this, we would calibrate
policy today to prevent this from happening, and the economy would stay at full employment and inflation
at target.
In practice of course, this isn't what happens. We can't foresee shocks, and even in times of relative calm
outcomes are rarely (if ever) exactly as we expect. The economy and our understanding of it is always evolving
and our models, analysis and judgements aren't perfect; we don't have a crystal ball and even if we did it would
be very cloudy.
Despite this, given the lags in monetary policy transmission, we always have to forecast how we think the
economy will evolve, and set policy now so that we expect to achieve our mandate once any policy change has
had time to have its effect.3 In practice, as I will explain later, policy decisions also take account of uncertainties
about the outlook. We put significant effort into identifying and understanding the risks around the baseline
forecast, and the Board explicitly considers such risks in its decision-making.4
... because there are lags in transmission
It is important, then, to understand how policy changes affect the economy. In a speech in 2023 my colleague
Christopher Kent set out the RBA's view of how monetary policy works, and how the sequence of increases in the
cash rate up to that point had affected the Australian economy.5 I plan to use the same framework to explore the
lags in transmission, so let me briefly summarise it here.
Figure 1: How Changes in the Cash Rate Flow through the Economy
Channels
Domestic demand
Wealth
Domestic
Other
prices
Labour
interest Cashflow
market
rates
Credit Inflation
Net exports
Import prices
When the cash rate changes, the first step in transmission is that other short and longer term market interest
rates and other asset prices (including the exchange rate) adjust, more or less straightaway.6 Then these changes
affect economic activity and ultimately inflation7 through a number of 'channels':
• Cash flow: lower interest rates flow into households' disposable income; borrowers pay less to service their
debt, and savers earn less on their deposits.
• Savings and investment:8 a decrease in saving and borrowing rates typically encourages people and
businesses to borrow, invest and consume more, and save less.
• Asset prices: A cut in interest rates typically encourages investment in assets, resulting in higher house,
equity and other asset prices. Higher household wealth tends to increase household consumption.
• Credit: Lower interest rates can increase the flow of loans to households and the availability of external
funding to businesses.
• Exchange rate: a decrease in interest rates can contribute to a depreciation of the exchange rate, making
imports less competitive and exports more competitive, leading to stronger growth. Higher import prices
also directly increase inflation.
Macroeconomists often talk about expectations, and whether or not an interest rate change is partially or fully
anticipated by financial markets, households and businesses is an important determinant of the size of each
transmission channel. If the change is fully anticipated by financial markets then we may see little if any change in
asset prices and the exchange rate, which limits the size of the exchange rate and asset price channels after the
decision.9 Households and businesses may also start to adapt their spending and investment decisions ahead of
a change in the cash rate, but they typically respond less than financial markets prior to the policy decision.10
Overall, then, the size and timing of the impact of policy changes through these channels varies.
Take the cash flow channel as an example. Some variable loan and savings rates change quickly, as we saw
following the Board's latest decision. Households in aggregate have more interest-sensitive loans than deposits,
so lower interest rates increase household disposable income. That prompts higher spending by borrowers,
though households typically adjust their spending by less than the changes in their incomes in the short run.11
For those with fixed-rate mortgages, cash flows remain unchanged until loans roll over, though they might start
adjusting their spending in anticipation (Graph 1).
Graph 1
Housing Lending Rates
% %
All outstanding*
8 8
New variable**
6 6
4 4
Cash rate target
2 2
0 0
1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
* For the outstandingrate series, Perpetual data used to 2015; data
from the Securitisation System to July 2019; thereafter, data from
the EFS collection.
** For the new variable series, Perpetual data used to 2013;
advertised package rates to July 2019; thereafter, data from the
EFS collection.
Sources: APRA; Perpetual; RBA; Securitisation System.
Or consider the exchange rate channel. All else equal, an interest rate cut in Australia lowers the relative rate of
return on Australian assets compared with overseas.12 This typically leads to a depreciation of the dollar, making
exports cheaper and imports more expensive. However, while the exchange rate adjusts immediately,
the volume of traded goods responds more gradually. Domestic businesses will have existing contracts to
purchase goods from overseas, while foreign buyers are similarly committed to purchasing Australian products at
previously agreed prices. If there is a trade deficit this price effect may exacerbate it. But as these contracts come
up for renewal, and as firms and consumers adjust their purchasing behaviour, there will be a gradual increase in
the volume of exports and a decline in imports, leading to an increase in net trade over time.
So far I've been discussing the direct channels through which cash rate changes impact the economy; these start
working immediately, though they take time to fully play out. But there are also indirect spillovers, such as the
impact of spending decisions by businesses, households, and importers on employment and income.13 For
example, a business might hire new workers for an investment project that is made viable by a rate cut, boosting
household income and spending. This ripple effect can amplify the direct impact of policy and may occur quickly
or over time. Recent research suggests these indirect effects could be a major part of the transmission
mechanism.14
While identifying these channels helps us think through how monetary policy operates, in practice they operate
at the same time and there is no precise way to isolate or quantify the contribution of each one. Nevertheless,
one simple way to build intuition about their relative roles is to look at how the components of GDP evolve after
a change in monetary policy.
To do this we can use a model of the economy - here I will use MARTIN, the RBA's main macroeconomic model,
to illustrate the transmission of a reduction in interest rates.15
Graph 2
GDP Response According to MARTIN*
Deviation from baseline, with contributions
% %
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
-0.2 -0.2
0 4 8 12 16 20
Quarters
Total Exports
Business investment Imports
Consumption Other**
Dwelling investment
* Response after the cash rate decreases by 100 basis points for one
quarter and follows the path impliedby MARTIN'spolicy rule after
that.
** 'Other' category includes ownership transfer costs, public demand,
and changes in inventories.
Source: RBA.
There are a number of helpful insights from the decomposition shown in Graph 2:
1. The immediate GDP response to lower interest rates is relatively limited - it takes time for everyone to adjust
2. In MARTIN it takes 9-12 months for a loosening in monetary policy to have its peak effect on
economic output.
3. The effect from total investment is an important channel over the first year, with dwelling investment in
particular responding relatively quickly compared with business investment, whose response builds fairly
gradually.16 Intuitively this makes sense - businesses might immediately be encouraged to invest more by
higher valuations and cheaper credit, but it takes time to get projects off the ground, and some businesses
will wait to respond once they see an increase in the demand for their goods and services from consumers.
4. Changes in imports and exports also play an important role in driving the initial response of GDP, at least
according to this particular model. This highlights that the exchange rate channel is important and operates
relatively quickly compared with other channels; if overseas holidays become expensive, households tend to
quickly switch to vacationing at home and vice versa.17
5. The response of household consumption to lower interest rates is initially small but grows over time.
This suggests the 'cash flow channel' - which should start working quickly18 - plays a minor role in the overall
transmission mechanism, as the boost from lower debt payments is offset by reduced interest income on
deposits. The slow response likely reflects the indirect effects of transmission channels and households'
tendency to smooth their spending changes.
While it takes about nine months for the cash rate to have its biggest impact on GDP, the peak effect on inflation
is estimated to take nearly twice as long (Graph 3). This could be because it takes time for an increase in demand
to affect the hiring decisions of firms and the job search decisions of households, which then ultimately feed into
price setting. Or it may simply reflect some 'stickiness' in prices.
Graph 3
GDP and Inflation
Response According to MARTIN*
Deviation from baseline
% ppt
GDP
(LHS)
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
Inflation
(RHS)
-0.2 -0.2
0 4 8 12 16 20
Quarters
* Response after the cash rate decreases by 100 basis points for one
quarter and follows the path impliedby MARTIN'spolicy rule after
that.
Source: RBA.
This tells us that - according to MARTIN at least - the decisions we make today will have their largest effect on
economic output at the end of 2025, and on inflation in mid-2026.19
Monetary policy is always data dependent ...
So to set policy we need an estimate of how changes in the cash rate affect the economy and a view of the
outlook for the economy - a forecast.20
As forecasters, we essentially try to do two things. First, we try to understand the state of the economy now.
Second, we use models based on economic theory and capturing historical patterns in the data combined with
our judgement, to extrapolate from the current state of the economy into the future.
In both cases this comes down to our understanding of the data - both quantitative information such as official
ABS data, surveys and financial market data, and qualitative information such as liaison. Extracting reliable signals
from noisy data and forming a coherent economic picture is challenging. New or revised data can alter our view
of the starting point or how the economy might evolve. As things constantly change, we continuously update
our views with new information.
In recent years many central banks have described their policy setting as 'data dependent'. Rather than meaning
that policy responds mechanically to particular pieces of data, we are data dependent in the sense that incoming
data affects our view of where the economy is today and the outlook, and this in turn influences the path for
policy. At times of heightened uncertainty about how the economy is responding to shocks - for example,
during the pandemic and the immediate aftermath -central banks may put a higher weight on real time data
relative to baseline forecasts and models.21 But these weights change over time, as conditions evolve and we
learn more about how the economy is responding; policymakers must always take a forward-looking view on the
outlook. So, how does this work in practice?
... because data informs our view of the outlook
To give a sense of how we draw this information together into a forecast, I am going to use the example of our
household consumption forecasts.
In our most recent Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), one of our key judgments was that household
consumption growth had started to recover in line with the pick-up in real household incomes. This judgement
was informed by analysis of a range of timely indicators - such as the ABS Household Spending Indicator,
and credit and debit card spending indices - which suggested that consumption growth had picked up in the
December quarter.
But was this just a temporary pick-up as financially squeezed households concentrated their spending around
Black Friday and other sales? Digging further into the data suggested there was more to it than that (Graph 4).
Not surprisingly, spending on the types of goods that tend to have significant sales, such as household goods
and clothing, did grow strongly in the quarter. However, we had also seen a modest lift in household disposable
income from the middle of 2024, and discretionary spending not impacted by sales (e.g. eating out) also showed
signs of picking up, which suggested a genuine improvement in underlying momentum. Information from our
liaison contacts also supported this assessment.
Graph 4
ABS Household Spending Indicator
Nominal, implied quarterly growth rate
% %
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
Total Black Friday Other Essential
Impacted* discretionary
SQ24 DQ24
*
Includes clothing & footwear, and furnishings & household equipment.
Sources: ABS; RBA.
Our read of the data is a crucial input to our forecasts. In fact, one way to think about the forecast is that it
captures and projects forward what we think is signal from the latest data, while disregarding what we think is
mostly noise.
The outlook for consumption is only one part of the forecast, and we spend considerable time thinking about
how different assumptions impact different sectors, and how these interactions might magnify or offset one
another. But underneath it all, the links between data, forecast and policy sits at the heart of us saying that policy
is 'data-dependent'.
Policy under uncertainty
As I set out earlier, the link between our forecast and the Board's policy decision is not mechanical. It is not as
simple as constructing our central forecasts, then working out what the Board needs to do with the cash rate to
meet its objectives.
The main reason for this is that there are always risks and uncertainties around the central forecast; the baseline
pathway is just one of a vast number of possible outcomes. Board decisions are always made in an uncertain
environment, which means thinking about the distribution of risks around the central forecast. One of the things
we are focused on right now is US policy settings, the impact of these on the global economy and how this flows
through to activity and inflation here in Australia; we have been using scenarios, analysis and judgement to
assess the policy implications.
As the Governor and Deputy Governor have both indicated recently, the February decision reflected a
judgement by the Board that it was the right time to take some restrictiveness away, but the Board were more
cautious than the market about prospects for further easing.
In all of this, the RBA uses a range of timely indicators to form its economic forecasts. These data help to
distinguish between temporary fluctuations and more sustained trends, informing policy decisions. The RBA's
policy decisions are made in the context of various risks and uncertainties. The Board considers a wide range of
possible outcomes and uses scenarios, analysis and judgment to assess the implications of different policy paths,
ensuring a balanced and forward-looking approach. This is why being forward looking is not in tension with
being data dependent.
Endnotes
* I would like to thank Tim Taylor, Gulnara Nolan, Jack Mulqueeney, Alexandra Michielsen, Iris Day and Eleanor Rogerson for
substantive drafting support and Michele Bullock, Andrew Hauser, Chris Kent, Brad Jones, Michael Plumb, Penny Smith,
David Jacobs, Alex Ballantyne, Jonathan Hambur, Anthony Brassil and Tom Williams for their comments on earlier drafts.
1 Hunter S (2024), 'Shedding Light on Uncertainty: Using Scenarios in Forecasting and Policy', University of Adelaide South
Australian Centre for Economics Studies (SACES) Lunch, Adelaide, 13 December.
2 See Friedman M (1960), 'A Program for Monetary Stability', Fordham University Press; Christiano LJ, M Eichenbaum and CL Evans
(1999), 'Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?', Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1, pp 65-148; Arouba
SB and T Drechsel (2024), 'The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices', Journal of
Monetary Economics, 148(S); Moura AS, G Buda, VM Carvalho, G Corsetti, JB Duarte, S Hansen, A Ortiz, T Rodrigo, JV Rodrigez Mora
and G Alves da Silva (2025), 'The Short Lags of Monetary Policy', Working Paper No w202501, Banco de Portugal.
3 This approach to setting monetary policy has been described as 'forecast targeting': seeLEO Svensson (1997), 'Inflation Forecast
Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets', European Economic Review, 41(6), pp 1111-1146; Woodford M (2007),
'The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy', Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(4), pp 3-24.
4 Hauser A (2025), 'Monetary Policy in a VUCA World', Address to the Australian Financial Review Business Summit, Sydney,
5 March.
5 Kent C (2023), 'Channels of Transmission', Address to Bloomberg, Sydney, 11 October.
6 Movements in asset prices reflect financial markets' view on both the short run, cyclical path for the cash rate (and other central
bank policy rates) and its long run or neutral level.
7 Monetary policy actions might also move households' expectations by influencing likely future inflation outcomes and showing
households that the central bank is committed to returning inflation to the target. Through the recent high inflation period
expectations have remained anchored, which has been a very welcome outcome; keeping expectations anchored is extremely
important, because if expectations become unanchored it can become more costly and take longer to return inflation to the
target.
8 This is equivalent to the 'intertemporal substitution channel' referred to in Kent, n 5.
9 As the change in policy rate has been anticipated, financial markets have already incorporated it into their prices and have
adjusted - effectively these channels have started working before the actual change in the interest rate. Conversely, if the policy
decision is a surprise, which can be no change in the cash rate as well as an unexpected change in the cash rate, movements in
financial markets are typically more pronounced enhancing the post-decision transmission through these channels.
10 There are a number of reasons why households and businesses are less responsive when they expect a change in the cash rate.
For example, both groups may be credit or liquidity constrained or they may not have as much knowledge about the likelihood
of monetary policy changes.
11 For a recent update on the household cash-flow channel, see Jennison S and M Miller (2025), 'An Update on the Household
Cash-flow Channel of Monetary Policy', RBA Bulletin, January. La Cava, Hughson and Kaplan estimate the marginal propensity to
consume (MPC) out of interest-sensitive cash flows to be around 0.2 for borrowers: La Cava G, H Hughson and G Kaplan (2016),
'The Household Cash Flow Channel of Monetary Policy', RBA Research Discussion Paper No 2016-12. An individual household's
MPC depends on several factors, including whether they face credit constraints: see, for example, Kaplan G and GL Violante
(2022), 'The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models', NBER Working Paper No 30013.
12 The size of the depreciation in the Australian dollar in response to a cash rate change depends on a number of factors.
These include whether the decision has been anticipated or not, the short- and long-term economic outlook in Australia and
overseas, broad policy settings in Australia and elsewhere, and concurrent and future monetary policy decisions by the RBA and
other central banks.
13 Economics often refer to these as general equilibrium or Keynesian multiplier effects.
14 For example, Kaplan, Moll and Violante show that monetary policy affects output indirectly via a general equilibrium change in
labour demand, which appears to dominate the direct effect via traditional channels of transmission such as intertemporal
substitution: Kaplan G, B Moll and GL Violante (2018), 'Monetary Policy According to HANK', American Economic Review, 108(3),
pp 697-743.
15 MARTIN is designed to capture the typical pattern of responses seen in the past to changes in interest rates, so it is effectively
taking an average of the size of the different transmission channels (including whether the policy decision was anticipated or
unexpected) over the inflation targeting period. That said, these estimates are uncertain and different models with different
structural underpinnings or statistical properties can suggest a different picture. This is why we tend to look at a variety of
models that make different assumptions about the economy, when forecasting and conducting scenario analysis.
A forthcoming Bulletin article will explore the transmission mechanism in more detail and includes estimates from several
models.
16 Dwelling investment is a relatively small part of GDP so underlying its medium-sized contribution is a sizeable change in
dwelling investment.
17 MARTIN predicts that imports decrease after a decrease in the cash rate. This response is not common to all models; for
example, the RBA's DSGE model predicts that the increase in household disposable income and households' forward-looking
behaviour leads to a lift in import volumes. For a discussion of these different responses, see Ballantyne A, T Cusbert, R Evans,
R Guttmann, J Hambur, A Hamilton, E Kendall, R McCririck, G Nodari and D Rees (2019), 'MARTIN Has Its Place:
A Macroeconometric Model of the Australian Economy', RBA Research Discussion Paper No 2019-07. Reflecting these modelling
differences, a forthcoming Bulletin article explores the transmission of monetary policy from the perspective of several models.
18 Unlike the other channels, the cash flow channel has an immediate effect on households' income. For households whose
spending has been constrained, this could be expected to have a rapid effect on spending. The absence of a rapid response,
and the fact that the cash flow effect on aggregate income is in any case limited, suggests this channel may not be the most
prominent channel of monetary policy transmission. This is consistent with the findings in Ballantyne et al, n 17 and the
estimates in La Cava et al, n 11.
19 The timing of the peak effects depends on the model. For example, the Bank's DSGE model features a quicker pass-through from
monetary policy to inflation (see Ballantyne et al, n 17 for a comparison). A forthcoming Bulletin article will explore the
transmission mechanisms according to several macroeconomic models, including MARTIN.
20 The RBA's forecasts are conditioned on the path of interest rates implied by market pricing. The focus of policy scenarios that
inform the Board is therefore on how deviations from the market path affect the outlook.
21 In the RBA's case, the shift to focusing more on actual outcomes relative to the baseline forecast was also accompanied by an
increased focus on scenario analysis. See, for example, RBA (2020), May Statement of Monetary Policy. | - The Reserve Bank Board cut interest rates recently for the first time since 2020, highlighting the forward-looking nature of monetary policy.
- Monetary policy impacts the economy with delays; current decisions shape future inflation and employment.
- A forward-looking approach is essential for meeting the RBA's mandate, requiring economic outlook forecasts and understanding policy impacts.
- Policy decisions are continuously updated based on incoming data, reflecting a data-dependent approach.
- The Board sets policy amidst uncertainty, considering risks and alternative economic pathways.
- Changes in cash rates affect the economy through various channels: cash flow, savings, investment, asset prices, credit, and the exchange rate.
- The size and timing of policy impacts vary; responses depend on expectations and whether rate changes are anticipated.
- Using the MARTIN model, lower rates’ effects on GDP and inflation are significant but delayed, with investment and trade crucial in initial GDP responses.
- GDP grows over time with lower interest rates, while inflation effects peak later, reflecting transmission channel complexities.
- Policy decisions are informed by forecasts derived from data, acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of economic outcomes.
- Recent household consumption growth was linked to real income increases, supported by various data indicators.
- The Board assesses policy amidst risks, using scenarios and judgment to balance uncertainties with objectives for stable economic outcomes. | Sarah Hunter | Reserve Bank of Australia | AU | Assistant Governor (Economic) | Assistant Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250319n.htm | 2025-03-19T00:00:00 | Frank Elderson: Resilience offers a competitive advantage, especially in uncertain times | Keynote speech by Mr Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, at the Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, London, 19 March 2025. | SPEECH
Resilience offers a competitive advantage,
especially in uncertain times
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of
the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the
Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference
London, 19 March 2025
We are living in unprecedented, turbulent times. Not a single week goes by without significant shifts in the
global economy. We are seeing a surge in tariffs, an unravelling of global trade and a growing transatlantic
divide leading to new geopolitical realities, all while wars continue right on our doorstep.
Meanwhile, the debate on financial regulation is also intensifying. Some have raised the question as to
whether regulation and supervision have become too conservative that they may be hindering
competitiveness. Perhaps some of the investors and bankers here in this room are asking themselves the
very same question.
In my remarks today, I will highlight that, particularly in an era of heightened economic uncertainty and
geopolitical shifts, we need competitive banks that ensure the flow of finance into investment and
innovation. I will argue, however, that a vital pre-condition for banks to play their fundamentally important
role of financing the real economy is that they remain resilient. Because a banking system that cannot
withstand shocks cannot reliably finance the economy, especially when it matters most. And while there
are merits in removing undue complexity from the regulatory framework without compromising resilience,
the debate on competitiveness should not be used as a pretext for watering down regulation. Rather than
reducing complexity by lowering regulatory requirements, it would be more effective to achieve
simplification through European harmonisation: don't cut rules, harmonise them.
Resilience of the European banking sector
Let me start with resilience. Over the past decade European banks have become significantly stronger.
Thanks to robust regulatory guardrails and rigorous supervision, today's banking sector is far more
resilient than it was ten years ago. This is reflected in higher capital and liquidity buffers, improved risk
management and better governance.
Euro area significant banks are currently in a good financial position, with the aggregate Common Equity
Tier 1 ratio standing at 15.7% in the third quarter of 2024. Similarly, the leverage ratio stands comfortably
above regulatory requirements at 5.8%. I anticipate that the data for the fourth quarter of 2024, due for
1 ]
release tomorrow, will confirm this overall trend.[
Chart 1
Capital adequacy
Source: ECB supervisory banking statistics.
Liquidity ratios also remain well above regulatory requirements, with the liquidity coverage ratio standing at
158.5% and the net stable funding ratio at 126.9%.
Chart 2
Liquidity ratios
Source: ECB supervisory banking statistics and ECB internal computations for historical data.
This resilience is not a coincidence, but a testament to the joint efforts undertaken by regulators,
supervisors and banks over the last decade.
It is worth remembering that the strong regulatory and pan-European supervisory framework was put in
place as a response to the great financial crisis, which remains the biggest growth-destroying event in
2 ]
modern economic history.[ The aim of legislators was clear: never again should we let excessive risk-
taking, insufficient regulation and "light touch" supervision fuel another crisis like the one that affected
millions of Europeans and resulted in average output losses of 8.5% of GDP in EU countries.
Encouragingly, Europe can look back on a decade of financial stability. Building on this renewed resilience,
euro area banks are now in a much better position to support households and companies.
To ensure banks can continue to play this crucial role, their ability to earn sustainable profits is an
indispensable component of resilience: without profits, banks cannot organically generate capital, make
the necessary investment in future-proof IT systems, finance their clients' growth projects and remain
3 ]
attractive to investors.[ Encouragingly, the profitability of euro area significant banks has notably
improved, with the aggregate annualised return on equity (RoE) standing at 10.2% in the third quarter of
2024. Despite this improvement, the positive effect of higher net interest income seems to have already
peaked. Moreover, although banks have seen their return on equity increase, it is still barely higher than
4 ]
their own cost of equity estimates.[ This shows that banks must keep a close eye on their operating
efficiency.
Chart 3
Profitability: return on equity versus cost of equity
Source: ECB internal calculations.
Notes: This is the cost of equity as reported by the banks themselves. Owing to data availability constraints, the
sample comprises a lower number of entities (104 significant institutions) than Supervisory banking statistics .
The European banking supervision cost of equity estimates (based on ) indicate a cost
established methodologies
of equity which is normally higher than the self-reported cost of equity.
One possible way of improving operating efficiency would be to reap economies of scale. Scaling up
would enable banks to arrive at the investment budgets they need for digitalisation and cybersecurity.
In a highly fragmented European banking system, these economies of scale could also be achieved
through market consolidation. We have repeatedly stressed that from a supervisory perspective, we see
benefits in cross-border mergers and will not stand in the way of consolidation. What matters is that the
acquisition results in safe and sound banks, regardless of who the proposed acquirer is or whether it
concerns a domestic or cross-border acquisition. Our supervisory assessment is limited to the prudential
grounds and criteria laid down in a limitative manner in the law. This means ensuring that new entities
resulting from business combinations have sustainable business models, comply with regulatory and
5 ]
supervisory requirements and have sound governance and risk management arrangements in place.[
Back in 2021, to be as transparent as possible about our approach for the benefit of market participants,
we published a guide to consolidation in the banking sector clearly setting out our supervisory
expectations.
Risk outlook
Resilience must, however, not lead to complacency. The risk environment is changing in ways that
demand our continued vigilance.
Although euro area GDP growth improved slightly to 0.7% in 2024, it remains subdued. In addition to the
risks to the GDP outlook being tilted to the downside, structural trends are developing that may cause
6 ]
significant bottlenecks in global and European economies in the period ahead.[
For example, geopolitical tensions are not expected to subside, we are seeing economic fragmentation
along geopolitical fault lines and protectionist measures are growing. And while all of this is happening, the
climate and nature crises - although lately it seems less fashionable in certain circles to point out this
undeniable fact - are getting worse, and natural disasters are becoming ever more frequent, severe and
7 ]
costly.[
The macro-financial context is having an impact on both the financial and non-financial risks that banks
are facing.
Let me start by looking at the financial risks, focusing first of all on credit risk. Currently, the non-
performing loan (NPL) ratio stands close to historical lows at 2.3%. However, corporate insolvencies are
on the rise, potentially leading to higher credit risk. Moreover, downside risks may materialise in sectors
that are particularly sensitive to current macroeconomic trends.
Chart 4
Asset quality: NPL ratio
Source: ECB supervisory banking statistics
Note: "cb" refers to "cash balances at central banks and other demand deposits".
In fact, we can see early signs of weakening asset quality, particularly in vulnerable sectors, such as
commercial real estate, and in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Worryingly, banks' provisions
do not appear to sufficiently reflect downside risks, confirming some persistent shortcomings in their
International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) provisioning frameworks.
Against this backdrop, European banking supervision made banks' credit risk management one of its key
supervisory priorities for 2025-27, spurring on banks to pay close attention to the bread and butter task of
sound credit risk management.
For example, this means that instead of kicking the can down the road, banks should recognise
deteriorations in asset quality in a timely manner and ensure their provisioning develops in lockstep with
decreasing asset quality.
Banks are also advised to identify borrowers that may experience structural repayment difficulties in
sectors of the economy that are particularly sensitive to current macroeconomic trends. That is also why
we are continuing our supervisory work on vulnerable sectors, by focusing for instance on banks'
preparedness in dealing with potential economic deterioration across the full value chain of the automotive
sector.
Moving on to non-financial risks, let me stress that - especially in the current risk environment - strong
8 ]
governance and sound risk culture are crucially important.[ Banks' management bodies must ensure the
9
effective and prudent management of their bank[ ], and are therefore ultimately responsible for ensuring
that banks are prepared for the challenges of today's risk landscape.
However, good governance, financial resilience and sound risk management are essential but not enough
in themselves to ensure that banks always remain at the service of the economy. To do so, they must also
be operationally resilient. Why is that?
Let's take the example of Amsterdam Trade Bank (ATB), which filed for bankruptcy even though it had
ample capital and liquidity. What went wrong? Due to sanctions, ATB had lost access to its IT systems,
which were run by third-party providers. There were no adequate contingency arrangements in place, so
this well-capitalised, liquid, but operationally insufficiently resilient bank had to close.
Another example is last summer's CrowdStrike incident, which caused the operating system of a major
provider to crash, displaying the so-called blue screen of death. This led to significant disruptions across
sectors, including banks.
Lastly, we can also see that the number of significant cyber incidents reported to the ECB more than
doubled between 2022 and 2024.
Chart 5
Number of significant cyber incidents reported to the ECB by significant banks
Worryingly, we see a clear increase in attacks on third-party providers to which banks have outsourced
certain services. Let me be clear: there are very good reasons for banks to outsource certain activities. For
example, if they want to take advantage of cost efficiencies, or be more agile and optimise their own
10 ]
resources and expertise.[ However, as the rising number of cyber incidents highlights, outsourcing also
comes with risks that banks should assess thoroughly to ensure business continuity. Considering that
European banks are highly dependent on third-party providers, particular vigilance is needed, especially in
times of rapid geopolitical change. Banks may want to consider revisiting past risk management decisions
when (re-)assessing their outsourcing arrangements.
Chart 6
Overview of type and number of significant cyber incidents reported to the ECB by
significant banks
Source: ECB Banking Supervision.
Note: "(D)DoS" stands for "(Distributed) denial of service".
The examples that I just mentioned illustrate a fundamental point: in times of increasing digitalisation and
geopolitical tensions which are fuelling cyberattacks, operational resilience is more important than ever.
However, unlike financial resilience, operational resilience can't be built up by accumulating Common
Equity Tier 1 (CET1). Instead, boosting operational resilience requires investment. Given the current rise
in banks' profitability, the time is right to continue investing in operational resilience. The more banks invest
with strategic foresight, the better they will be operationally prepared if and when a cyberattack hits, for
example.
Moreover, the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), which became applicable in the EU earlier this
year, will help to further boost operational resilience as it provides a robust framework that requires banks
11 ]
to foster a culture of continuous IT and cyber risk management.[
What's more, neither cyber risks nor other risks stop at borders. Given the interconnectedness of the
international financial system, international cooperation is vitally important. The good news is that we have
well-established existing global institutions and fora such as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision,
the Financial Stability Board and the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial
System, which remain essential for financial stability, especially in the current risk context.
Hence, as we navigate through a complex risk environment with heightened uncertainties, vigilance,
prudence and resilience are more important than ever. But resilience - whether financial or operational -
isn't just about protecting banks from shocks. It's also a foundation for long-term competitiveness. A bank
that is robust in times of crisis is also a bank that is robust at all times so that it can invest and compete to
the benefit households and firms.
Competitiveness and financial sector resilience are closely interlinked
And this brings us to a broader question in the debate on competitiveness: how does one ensure a strong
and competitive banking sector without compromising financial stability?
Let me be clear: framing financial stability and competitiveness as opposing forces is a fundamental
misconception. Evidence shows that stronger, better capitalised banks are more competitive and - most
12 ]
importantly - better equipped to lend to the real economy.[ Impact assessments of the post-crisis
reforms in the banking sector show that the benefits clearly outweigh any potential unintended side
13 ]
effects.[ Hence, competitiveness and financial sector resilience are closely interlinked. Neither can exist
without the other.
Having said that, we generally support simplifying the regulatory framework where possible, as long as the
current level of resilience of the banking sector is maintained and any changes are based on prior, sound
impact assessments and cost-benefit analyses. After all, if we all agree that it only makes sense to
legislate after solid ex ante impact assessments and sound analyses show that the benefits of certain
rules outweigh their costs, then it must make just as much sense to rigorously perform these same
assessments and analyses before scrapping those very same rules.
We must ensure that any short-term gains in simplification do not actually result in any long-term loss of
resilience prudently built up over the last decade. We also need to ensure that simplification efforts do not
leave pockets of risk unaddressed.
Let me illustrate this with an example. As prudential supervisors, our true north is that no material risk
remains unaddressed. An important precondition for banks to be able to prudently manage their risks is
that they have accurate risk data and information from their customers. The financial risks stemming from
the ongoing climate and nature crises are no exception to that principle. It is therefore vitally important that
any attempts to simplify sustainability reporting for companies do not result in critically important data
points needed by banks to adequately manage their climate and nature-related risks no longer being
disclosed in a harmonised manner. If this were to happen, banks would either no longer be able to conduct
adequate risk management, or they would have to resort to requiring additional data from their clients on
top of the current regulatory regime, which would be burdensome both for banks and their clients.
The economist Hyman Minsky wisely stated that, as memories of past crises fade, attitudes towards
regulation change. Let me add that if such attitudes lead to confusing simplification and deregulation,
memories of past crises could return with a vengeance.
The last thing we should do, especially as we go through times of high uncertainty, is to let our guard down
as regards resilience and hamper banks' ability to manage their risks, thinking that "this time will be
different'', the phrase so poignantly coined in Rogoff's and Reinhard's "Eight Centuries of Financial Folly".
[ 14 ]
Let us, for once, avoid such folly and sidestep that all-too-attractive trap.
Instead, let me point to an often overlooked yet crucially important aspect that has significant simplification
potential and does not come at the expense of resilience: a primary root cause of complexity in the
European framework lies in the persistent fragmentation of rules at national level. For example, many
facets of the current prudential framework do not actually consist of a single European regulation but of a
patchwork of nationally transposed directives. To truly reduce complexity, we need more harmonisation at
EU level through directly applicable regulations which would achieve a truly unified single rulebook. I
would even go as far as to say that a more integrated and European approach is the most effective way
forward to ensure that our regulatory framework is simpler and more effective. Financial markets would
also greatly benefit from the harmonisation of corporate insolvency rules, accounting frameworks and
securities laws, as well as from better disclosure of financial information by EU corporates. To make
progress in these areas, alternatives methods could be envisaged, such as the introduction of a 28th
regime, which would be a practical and very welcome intermediate step towards further harmonisation
within the EU.
A completed banking union, including the establishment of a European deposit insurance scheme and a
fully integrated capital markets union, would help eliminate barriers that still hinder market integration and
would ensure that the financial system fosters both stability and growth. The path to greater
competitiveness does not therefore lie in deregulation but in further European integration.
Moreover, as far as European banking supervision is concerned, we continuously apply a risk-based
approach to simplify and reduce complexity and cost factors that unduly inhibit our task of keeping banks
sound.
One example of our drive for "simplification without compromising resilience" is the comprehensive reform
of our annual health check of banks, the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process, which we recently
made leaner, more risk based and more efficient.
The recent, fast-track approval process for standardised securitisations is another excellent example of
how, in close dialogue with the industry, processes can be simplified within the existing regulatory
framework. By leveraging product standardisation for sufficiently simple significant risk transfer
transactions, the fast-track process will lead to efficiency gains without - crucially - weakening our focus
on relevant risks. I sincerely hope that together we can identify and pursue more initiatives of this kind.
We will also continue to reduce processing times by making better use of supervisory technology tools that
use cutting-edge technologies, such as artificial intelligence. For example, since March 2023 we have
been machine reading and pre-screening all our fit and proper applications, which speeds up supervisory
15 ]
assessments and, in turn, the responsiveness to banks.[
Conclusion
Let me conclude.
The progress made over the past decade has made European banks more resilient. Banks have evolved
from shock propagators to shock absorbers.
As we navigate through the storms brewing over today's increasingly complex risk landscape, stable
banks are more important than ever.
Rolling back on safety and soundness would not only undermine financial stability but also weaken banks'
ability to finance the real economy.
Does that mean that there is no room for regulatory simplification? Does it mean that there is no room for
any efficiency gains in the way we supervise? Of course not.
But let us stay on course while we explore how to simplify and harmonise the regulatory framework.
Let us stay on course while we continue to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of our supervision.
And let us stay on course in ensuring that the European banking system remains resilient.
Because resilient banks are nothing less than the bedrock of competitiveness and growth.
Thank you for your attention.
1.
The reference date for data contained in this speech is the third quarter of 2024. As of 20 March 2025,
data for the fourth quarter of 2024 can be found on the Supervisory data web page.
2.
Previous systemic financial crises resulted in average output losses of 8.5% of GDP in EU countries. See
Lo Duca, M. et al. (2017), " A new database for financial crises in European Countries ', Occasional Paper
Series, No 194, July; and Woods, S. (2024), " Competing for growth ", speech at the Annual City Banquet,
Mansion House, 17 October.
3.
Strong profitability and a low cost-to-income ratio are important determinants of higher price-to-book ratios
at individual bank level and hence banks' attractiveness to investors. See " What is the outlook for the
European banking sector? ", fireside chat between Kerstin af Jochnick, Member of the Supervisory Board
of the ECB, and Chris Hallam, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, at the Twenty-Eighth Annual
European Financials Conference, hosted by Goldman Sachs in Madrid, 5 June 2024.
4.
Chart 3 shows that banks' own cost of equity estimates are at the lower end of our estimate range
5.
See Elderson, F. (2025), Interview with Het Financieele Dagblad , ECB, 17 January; and ECB (2020),
Guide on the supervisory approach to consolidation in the banking sector .
6.
See Elderson, F. (2024), " Securing stability in an insecure environment: navigating a bottleneck
environment ", speech at the University of Cyprus, Nicosia, 21 November.
7.
Munich Re has found that the average damage from natural disasters over the past 30 years (corrected
for inflation) is rising. It averaged USD 181 billion per year worldwide over the past 30 years, but USD 236
billion over the past ten years and USD 261 billion over the past five years, reaching USD 320 billion in
2024. See Munich Re (2025), " Climate change is showing its claws: The world is getting hotter, resulting in
severe hurricanes, thunderstorms and floods ", 9 January.
8.
See previous speeches and blog posts on governance, including ECB (2024), " Banks' governance and
risk culture a decade on: progress and shortcomings ", The Supervision Blog, 24 July; and Elderson, F.
(2023), "' Treading softly yet boldly: how culture drives risk in banks and what supervisors can do about it '',
speech at the 10th Conference on the Banking Union organised by Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, the
Institute for Law and Finance at Goethe University and the Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt am
Main, 19 September.
9.
See Article 88(1) of the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD); and ECB (2024), Draft guide on
governance and risk culture , July.
10.
For example, more than 70% of significant banks outsource critical payment services, and more than half
outsource some of their lending and investment services. See ECB (2024), " Rise in outsourcing calls for
attention '', Supervision Newsletter, 21 February.
11.
See ECB (2025), " Operational resilience in the digital age ", The Supervision Blog, 17 January.
12.
Budnik, K., Dimitrov, I., Gross, J., Lampe, M. and Volk, M. (2021), " Macroeconomic impact of Basel III
finalisation on the euro area ", Macroprudential Bulletin, No 14, European Central Bank. See also Siciliani,
P., Eccles, P., Netto, F., Vitello, E., Sivanathan, V. and van Hasselt, I. (2023), Paper 2: The links between
prudential regulation, competitiveness and growth. Background working paper published by PRA staff in
support of the conference on the role of financial regulation in international competitiveness and economic
growth conference 2023 , Bank of England Prudential Regulation Authority, 11 September. On the usability
of buffers for bank lending, see Couaillier, C. et al. (2021), " Bank capital buffers and lending in the euro
area during the pandemic ", Financial Stability Review, November; and Couaillier, C. et al. (2022), " Caution:
do not cross! Capital buffers and lending in Covid-19 times ", Working Paper Series, No 2644, ECB,
February.
13.
Financial Stability Board (2025), Evaluation of the Effects of the G20 Financial Regulatory Reforms , 22
January. See also the overview of the evaluations performed to date.
14.
Rogoff, K.S. and Reinhard, C.M. (2011), This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,
Princeton University Press.
15.
The ECB uses a dedicated tool called Heimdall, which is constantly updated and enhancements. For
instance, we have further automatised the transfer of findings from fit and proper assessment to our core
IT systems and in turn their timely communication to banks. Heimdall also supports a risk-based
supervision approach as supervisors can now more easily focus on cases flagged as complex and at the
same time speed up the assessment and conclusion of simpler cases. See ECB (2025), " Bridging the gap
between people and technology ", interview with Alessandra Perrazzelli, Deputy Governor of the Banca
d'Italia and Member of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, Supervision Newsletter, 19 February. | - Resilience in the banking sector is crucial during times of economic uncertainty and geopolitical shifts.
- European banks have strengthened over the past decade due to robust regulatory frameworks and supervision, boasting strong capital and liquidity ratios.
- Simplifying regulation through European harmonization is preferred over reducing regulatory requirements to maintain resilience.
- Profitability is vital for banks' resilience, enabling them to invest in technology and business growth.
- Market consolidation, including cross-border mergers, can improve operating efficiency and economies of scale without compromising safety.
- The risk environment necessitates vigilance; credit risks are rising due to increasing corporate insolvencies and vulnerable sectors.
- Operational resilience, particularly against cyber risks, is essential, requiring ongoing investment as highlighted by recent incidents and the new Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA).
- Competitiveness and financial sector resilience are interconnected; stronger banks are better equipped to lend to the real economy.
- Regulatory framework should be simplified without compromising resilience through unified EU regulations for consistency across member states.
- Banking union completion, including a European deposit insurance scheme, would enhance market integration and stability.
- Efficiency in supervision can be achieved through risk-based approaches and technological advancements without diminishing resilience.
- It is critical to avoid complacency and maintain resilience and robustness of the banking sector to protect financial stability and economic growth. | Frank Elderson | European Central Bank | EU | Member of the Executive Board and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board | Executive Board Member | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324h.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Martin Schlegel, Antoine Martin, Petra Tschudin: Introductory remarks by the Governing Board, Swiss National Bank news conference | Introductory remarks by Mr Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Governing Board of the SNB, Mr Antoine Martin, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the SNB, and Ms Petra Tschudin, Member of the Governing Board of the SNB, at the Media News Conference of the Swiss National Bank, Zurich, 20 March 2025. | News conference
Embargo
20 March 2025, 10.00 am
Introductory remarks by the Governing Board
Martin Schlegel, Antoine Martin and Petra Tschudin
Chairman of the Governing Board / Vice Chairman of the Governing Board / Member of the
Governing Board
Swiss National Bank
Zurich, 20 March 2025
© Swiss National Bank
Ladies and gentlemen
On behalf of the Governing Board, it is my pleasure as Chairman to welcome you to the
SNB's news conference. After our introductory remarks, we will take questions from
journalists as usual.
Monetary policy decision
I will begin with our monetary policy decision. We have decided to lower the SNB policy rate
by 0.25 percentage points to 0.25%. The new policy rate applies from tomorrow, 21 March
2025. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to
a certain threshold, and at 0% above this threshold. We also remain willing to be active in the
foreign exchange market as necessary.
With our rate adjustment today, we are ensuring that monetary conditions remain appropriate,
given the low inflationary pressure and the heightened downside risks to inflation. We will
continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, to
ensure that inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium
term.
Inflation forecast
Allow me to address the development of inflation in more detail. Since the last monetary
policy assessment, inflation has developed in line with expectations. It decreased from 0.7%
in November to 0.3% in February. This decline is attributable in particular to the drop in
electricity prices in January. Overall, inflation is still being driven mainly by domestic
services.
Our new conditional inflation forecast has hardly changed since December. Without today's
rate cut, the forecast would have been lower in the medium term. The forecast is within the
range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon (cf. chart). It puts average annual
inflation at 0.4% for 2025, 0.8% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027 (cf. table). Our forecast is based
on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
I will now hand over to Antoine Martin, who will address the global economic outlook.
Global economic outlook
Global economic growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of 2024. While growth was solid
in the US and China, it was more subdued in the euro area. The services sector continued to
contribute positively to economic activity worldwide. In large parts of manufacturing, by
contrast, developments remained muted.
Inflation recently rose again somewhat in many countries, primarily driven by energy
products. Underlying inflationary pressure is still elevated in many countries, albeit less
markedly than a few quarters ago. Various central banks have therefore cut their policy rates
further.
In our baseline scenario, we anticipate that growth in the global economy will remain
moderate over the coming quarters. The high level of uncertainty surrounding trade policy is
likely to weigh on investment and on global economic momentum. By contrast, monetary
policy easing that has been implemented abroad will support growth. Underlying inflationary
pressure should continue to ease gradually over the next quarters, particularly in Europe.
Inflation in the US, however, is expected to remain elevated for some time.
Our scenario for the global economy is currently subject to high uncertainty. The situation
could change rapidly and markedly, particularly from a trade and geopolitical perspective. For
example, increasing trade barriers could lead to weaker global economic development. At the
same time, a more expansionary fiscal policy in Europe could provide stimulus to the
economy in the medium term.
This brings us to the situation in Switzerland, which Petra Tschudin will present.
Swiss economic outlook
Economic growth in Switzerland was solid in the fourth quarter of 2024. The services sector
and parts of manufacturing developed favourably. There was a further slight increase in
unemployment, while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
We expect GDP growth of between 1% and 1.5% for the current year. Domestic demand is
likely to benefit from rising real wages and the easing of monetary policy. By contrast,
moderate economic activity abroad looks set to have a dampening effect on foreign trade. In
this environment, unemployment is likely to continue to rise slightly. We anticipate GDP
growth of around 1.5% for 2026.
The economic outlook for Switzerland has become considerably more uncertain. Against the
backdrop of increased trade and geopolitical uncertainties worldwide, developments abroad
continue to represent the main risk.
I will now hand back to Martin Schlegel.
Monetary policy outlook
Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to return to our monetary policy.
We have eased our monetary policy considerably over recent quarters. This easing has helped
to stabilise the inflation outlook in the medium term.
Since our last monetary policy assessment in December, inflation has developed in line with
expectations. Over the entire forecast horizon, our conditional inflation forecast is within the
range consistent with price stability, which we equate with an inflation rate of between 0%
and 2%.
Nevertheless, uncertainty about global economic and inflation developments has increased
significantly. As a result, the outlook for inflation in Switzerland, too, is currently very
uncertain. At present, the risks are predominantly to the downside.
With our interest rate cut, we are taking into account the low inflationary pressure and the
downside risks. At the same time, we are supporting economic activity in Switzerland. In
light of the heightened uncertainty, we will continue to monitor the situation closely and
adjust our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure that monetary conditions remain
appropriate.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. | - The SNB has decided to lower the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.25% in response to low inflationary pressure and increased downside risks to inflation.
- The latest inflation figures show a decline from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to a drop in electricity prices.
- The new conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged since December, with medium-term inflation predicted at 0.4% for 2025, 0.8% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027, assuming the policy rate stays at 0.25%.
- Global economic growth was moderate in Q4 2024; solid in the US and China but subdued in the euro area, with underlying inflationary pressure easing gradually.
- SNB expects moderate global economic growth with high uncertainty due to trade policy and geopolitical factors, which could be impacted by potential trade barriers or expansionary fiscal policies.
- In Switzerland, Q4 2024 showed solid growth, particularly in services and manufacturing, with slight unemployment increases but normal production capacity utilization.
- Swiss GDP is expected to grow between 1% and 1.5% in 2025 and around 1.5% in 2026, supported by rising real wages and eased monetary policy, though foreign trade may dampen growth.
- The monetary policy outlook highlights significant uncertainties related to global economic conditions, with inflation risks mainly on the downside.
- The SNB will continue to closely monitor economic developments and adjust monetary policy as needed to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. | Martin Schlegel; Antoine Martin; Petra Tschudin | Swiss National Bank | CH | Chairman of the Governing Board; Vice Chairman of the Governing Board; Member of the Governing Board | Governing Board Member | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324b.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Klaas Knot: Presentation of the 2024 annual report | Introductory remarks by Mr Klaas Knot, President of De Nederlandsche Bank, at the presentation of the 2024 annual report, Amsterdam, 20 March 2025. | Klaas Knot: Presentation of the 2024 annual report
Introductory remarks by Mr Klaas Knot, President of De Nederlandsche Bank, at the
presentation of the 2024 annual report, Amsterdam, 20 March 2025.
* * *
Good morning and welcome to our fully renovated headquarters building.
Here you see the result of five years of hard work. I am very happy that the building
turned out so well and that the renovation project stayed within budget and was
completed on schedule. And all that despite the pandemic. King Willem-Alexander will
conduct the official opening next week, and visitors are already finding their way to De
Nieuwe Schatkamer . Everyone is welcome to come visit us.
This is the fourteenth time I have had the honour of presenting the DNB annual report.
And this is also my last time. For on 1 July, my second term as President will come to
an end, and with a heavy heart I will say goodbye.
As this is my last annual report, my introductory chapter also looks back over the past
14 years, including at the monetary policy we have conducted. A lot has happened in
those 14 years, with one constant: events outside the Netherlands have always had a
huge impact on the Netherlands itself.
Today this is perhaps more true than ever. A war has been raging in Europe for several
years, and it is unclear whether it can be brought to a lasting and just end. At the same
time, the post-war Atlantic security situation seems to have been thrown out of balance
due to tensions between the United States and Europe, leading to a need in Europe to
invest heavily in defence to ensure our security.
Against this geopolitical backdrop, far-reaching trade conflicts between the major
economic trading blocs are looming. And we are also faced with various long-standing
vulnerabilities relating to domestic economic tightness, inflation and sluggish European
growth. These vulnerabilities are being exposed and exacerbated by the situation in the
world today.
Following the pandemic and the energy crisis, we are now witnessing the world being
turned upside down for the third time. So much so, that, to quote Pope Francis, this no
longer feels like an era of change, but a change of era.
So there are big challenges ahead. Perhaps the two most urgent are the looming trade
tariffs and the ambition to rapidly ramp up our defence spending. Trade tariffs disrupt
global trade flows and the production chains built up over decades, hitting an open
economy like the Netherlands extra hard.
In addition, it seems inevitable that Europe will be compelled to redouble its efforts in
the area of defence. This will be a challenge for the still somewhat overheated Dutch
economy, but certainly also for some European countries with high public debt.
How should we deal with these two challenges?
To begin with, through European strength and European unity. In today's uncertain
world, the best thing we can do is to seek more cooperation within Europe - without
isolating ourselves from the rest of the world.
It is essential for Europe to cooperate on defence, which is a public good of singular
significance: if it is there, it is there for everyone. By working together in Europe, we can
coordinate procurement, rather than each Member State buying arms and equipment
separately. Fortunately, Europe seems to be accepting this challenge with great vigour.
The plans do come with a hefty price tag. In view of this, there is a strong case for
giving countries a temporary exemption from the budget rules for additional defence
spending. These expenditures need to be done quickly and, until recently, were
unforeseen. This exemption should, however, be temporary and limited because
increased spending is largely structural and public debt in the EU is still too high. A
temporary relaxation of the rules will allow countries to integrate additional defence
spending into their budgets in the longer term. Because sustainable public finances
may not be compromised.
A stronger Europe is important not only for defence, but also more generally for an
open economy like the Netherlands. The European Union has a population of around
450 million. Seventy percent of Dutch exports remain within Europe, meaning we have
a vested interest in making Europe stronger.
European economic strength is also essential for dealing with tensions on the
international trade front. Unfortunately, there are still barriers to working, doing business
and investing across borders in the EU. This is why we need to strengthen the
European single market. In particular, it is crucial to integrate European capital markets
so that start-ups, scale-ups and European technology firms can raise capital more
easily and cheaply and thus compete with US and Chinese firms.
The much-discussed Draghi and Letta reports and the European Commission's
Competitiveness Compass make important proposals to improve the single market and
European competitiveness.
What exactly does the geopolitical situation mean for policy in the Netherlands? We in
the Netherlands have little influence on many of the developments currently taking
place in the world. But we can do one thing. And that is to work to mitigate the
economic consequences and perhaps seize new opportunities. Hence the theme of our
annual report: 'Robust policies in an uncertain world'.
What do we mean by 'robust policies'?
Policies that strengthen Europe.
Policies that anticipate future challenges.
Policies that better enable us to absorb shocks.
What does this mean in concrete terms?
Let me start with ourselves. The best contribution central banks and supervisory
authorities can make in uncertain times is to do what they were put on earth to do:
ensure financial and price stability. We are working hard to make sure the financial
sector, payment systems and the economy as a whole remain resilient to shocks.
Robust policies, moreover, are not only European policies, but also future-proof
policies. For the Netherlands, this means addressing our scarcity problem. We are
facing shortages of housing, human resources, physical space and so on. This puts
limits on our growth, both now and in the future.
Robust policies also mean: ensuring buffers to absorb unexpected shocks. This is
especially vital in unstable times, for both the government and the financial sector.
Public finances may be in good shape now, but in the medium term, healthcare
spending, interest costs and now defence spending are set to rise sharply. It is
essential that the government can continue to absorb shocks going forward, without
financial markets becoming unsettled by mounting debt.
Sensible fiscal policy must also be pursued because of inflation, which has been too
high in the Netherlands for too long. This can be particularly difficult for people who do
not have much money to spend. Because Dutch inflation is higher than the euro area
average, we cannot look to Frankfurt. Getting Dutch inflation under control is a joint
responsibility both for the social partners and the government. In this case, robust
policies mean that the government continues to pursue a trend-based budget policy,
does not throw more fuel on the inflationary fire and thus anticipates long-term
developments in the Dutch economy.
In view of all the challenges ahead, the Dutch economy is in a good starting position.
Maintaining our prosperity requires robust policies. Policies that strengthen Europe,
anticipate the future and create shockproof buffers. The latter, of course, is also vital for
the financial sector. I would now like to give the floor to Steven.
Steven Maijoor
In uncertain times, financial and economic stability are very important, as Klaas said. A
healthy financial sector with sufficient buffers to absorb shocks is a key component of
this stability.
Fortunately, we have seen that the financial sector has held up well during the shocks
of recent years. Stronger regulations and the tightening of supervision after the financial
crisis have clearly paid off. Banks are now in a much stronger position and are
decidedly more robust.
However, we do see that the strengthening of regulations in recent years has created a
confusing jungle of rules in a number of areas.
It would therefore be wise to simplify regulations and enhance harmonisation in Europe
where possible. This might involve streamlining the vast quantities of technical
standards and guidelines from European supervisory authorities.
And when it comes to minimising differences in the Banking Union and the Capital
Markets Union, we favour regulations over directives.
Simplification should not be confused with deregulation, or the relaxation of rules, for
example the Basel III capital requirements. We should not go down that path.
Simplifying the rules does not mean lowering the bar. Especially in this uncertain world,
it is important to stick to robust policies. For banks, this mainly means implementing the
agreements made in Basel III.
Gita Salden
In uncertain times, it is important that financial institutions are not only financially sound,
but also ethically sound. A number of banks in recent years have faced enforcement
action from us, or from the public prosecution service, for failing to combat money
laundering adequately. On a positive note, we see clear improvement in AML efforts
across the board.
But unintended side effects may also crop up. For example, if banks do not differentiate
sufficiently between high-risk and low-risk files, which can result in an undue burden on
law-abiding citizens and entrepreneurs. They may find it difficult or impossible to open a
bank account, they may be required to answer intrusive questions, or they may be
offboarded without clear cause. There are also customers who experience
discrimination.
Countering financial crime can be done more efficiently and effectively through a more
risk-based approach, smarter use of data-driven technological innovations and more
focused cooperation throughout the chain.
Naturally I must also address the pension transition. DNB fully supports the new
Pensions Act and the transition to the new system. Our task is clear: implement the law
and ensure a diligent and balanced transition.
And that is exactly what we are doing: the transition is in full swing. The first four funds
have received a positive decision on their conversion notification. Also, some 40 partial
assessments have already been completed, and at least 40 funds are intending to
convert within a year. Together, we are drawing important lessons from the initial
experiences, enabling us to refine our assessment process and make it more
predictable. This will help us achieve our mutual objective: a pension system that is
ready for the future.
Cindy van Oorschot
As global uncertainty increases, so does the frequency of cyberthreats. This is a matter
of utmost urgency for everyone, but even more so for the financial sector. A quarter of
all cyberattacks worldwide affect the financial sector. Traditionally, the sector has been
an attractive target for cybercriminals with financial motives. But we now also face
statesponsored cyberattacks.
As a supervisory authority, the introduction of DORA gives us a powerful tool to boost
the resilience of the financial sector and strengthen the robustness of the entire chain of
ICT service providers.
This includes the mandatory advanced resilience tests for large financial institutions. In
the Netherlands, we have been carrying out such tests on a voluntary basis for more
than eight years - under the name TIBER - with good results. In addition, we have now
developed a more flexible version, called ART, which can also be used in other vital
sectors.
We also put our own organisation through such tests, because we too are an attractive
target for hackers.
Geopolitical uncertainties, including cyberthreats, affect all our tasks. In response, we
have launched an overarching project focusing on geopolitical fragmentation to link
existing activities in both the central bank and supervision domains to ensure that we
are ready to act across the full breadth of our responsibilities.
Olaf Sleijpen
Geopolitical uncertainty is also high on the agenda in the field of the payment system,
which is often the target of the cyberattacks that Cindy just mentioned.
Another concern is that the infrastructure behind our digital payments at the checkout is
largely non-European. Although the providers of this infrastructure are regulated under
EU rules, the policies of foreign governments can still result in control over how and to
whom we make payments. This is undesirable.
For this reason, we support European initiatives such as Wero, which provides a
European digital payment solution. And DNB is actively contributing to the development
of the digital euro. The business case for the digital euro is sometimes questioned for
the Netherlands, which has an effective and efficient payment system. In view of global
developments, we advocate the introduction of the digital euro. Specifically, the digital
euro will provide us with a means of payment that is independent of non-European
parties and that will also form a reliable backup in crisis situations. This will be an
important addition to our payment infrastructure.
The last point I would like to mention is that we will also factor global tensions into our
own investment policy.
Our mission is to contribute to sustainable prosperity in the Netherlands. For this
reason, we are committed to integrating sustainability into our own-account
investments. However, sustainable prosperity will benefit not only from an orderly
energy transition, but also from a society that is resilient, secure and stable.
That is why this year we are exploring how our own - robust - investments can also
contribute to a resilient society. In doing so, we are of course mindful of our role as a
long-term investor, balancing different investment themes and asset classes.
In conclusion: Robust policies and European cooperation are the remedies we need in
this uncertain world. There now seems to be momentum for both. This is positive and it
should give us a glimmer of hope in these bleak times. | - Geopolitical challenges: Ongoing war in Europe and global trade tensions impacting the Dutch economy.
- European cooperation: Urgent need for unity in defense and trade, with a proposal for temporary budget rule exemptions for increased defense spending.
- Economic vulnerabilities: Domestic issues like inflation and slow growth are exacerbated by global conditions.
- Robust policies: Focus on strengthening Europe, preparing for future challenges, and creating economic buffers.
- Monetary policy role: Central banks should ensure financial and price stability.
- Addressing shortages: Scarcity in housing, labor, and space limits growth, requiring future-proof policies.
- Fiscal policy: Maintain sustainable public finances and manage inflation without worsening it.
- Financial sector resilience: Stronger regulations post-financial crisis have improved stability, but simplification and harmonization are needed.
- Ethical banking: Enhance Anti-Money Laundering (AML) efforts without undue burden on low-risk individuals.
- Pension reform: Support for new Pensions Act with streamlined assessments and implementation.
- Cybersecurity: Increased threats require robust resilience tests and European initiatives for digital payment security.
- Digital currency: Advocate for a digital euro to ensure independence from non-European entities.
- Investment strategy: Align investments with sustainable prosperity and societal resilience.
These points reflect the priorities and rationales discussed in Klaas Knot's speech at the presentation of the 2024 annual report. | Klaas Knot | De Nederlandsche Bank | NL | President | President | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324e.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | François Villeroy de Galhau: Governing the Bank of France - two lessons from history for an uncertain world | Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the historical conference "A mass of granite", Paris, 20 March 2025. | Historical conference "A mass of granite"
'Governing the Banque de France: two lessons from history for
an uncertain
world'
Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau,
Governor of the Banque de France
Press contact: Delphine Cuny ([email protected])
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is a pleasure to speak today at this historical conference organised in
partnership with the Fondation Napoléon. This year, 2025, marks the 225th
anniversary of the Banque de France, founded by Napoleon Bonaparte as a
'mass of granite' to stabilise the scattered 'grains of sand' of the Nation and
participate in its reconstruction after the Convention and the Directory. I think
that we can all agree that the results have lived up to our ambitions: the Banque
de France, its women and men, remain one of the cornerstones of the national
- -
and now European edifice and have enabled it to weather times of economic
and financial turmoil. These successes are primarily due to the dynamic
governance that has constantly renewed itself in order to serve an increasingly
broad general interest (I). This year, which is particularly fraught with uncertainty
at both the national and international levels, a few key episodes in our history
also provide two lessons in resilience for France (II) and Europe (III).
I) A dynamic governance
The current governance of the Banque de France is the result of more than two
centuries of evolution, which has led our institution to serve an increasingly
broad general interest. The Banque de France, born of the Consulate, was
originally a listed company. The First Consul was also the first of its private
shareholders: a different era! The Bank provided genuine public services for the
Paris financial centre: issuing banknotes and setting an attractive and stable
discount rate. It was administered by a Council of Regency made up of
representatives elected by its 200 main shareholders. From 1806,i the state's
influence over the Bank grew stronger: a Governor, assisted by two Deputy
Governors, all appointed by the head of state, was placed at its helm. As
"I want the Bank to be sufficiently in the
Napoleon Bonaparte famously said:
hands of the Government and not too much so."
the 'Bank of
For several decades, the Banque de France remained de facto
Paris' because it had a monopoly on issuing banknotes
limited to a local
area. As of 1848,ii this monopoly was extended to the whole of France, thus
lending our activities a national dimension. This new scope of action was
accompanied in 1936 by a democratisation of governance.iii The Council of
Regency was replaced by the General Council: 20 councillors, the bulk of whom
were appointed by the public authorities, succeeded the 15 regents. All
- known as the "200
shareholders and no longer just the 200 main ones,
families"
- were henceforth represented at the General Meeting. This process
was completed in December 1945iv with the nationalisation of the Bank, which
became a public institution, wholly owned by the state, supporting policies for
the reconstruction and modernisation of the French economy.
Our governance evolved once again with the Law of 4 August 1993v when the
Banque de France gained its independence. A Monetary Policy Council, chaired
by the Governor, is in charge of setting monetary policy "without seeking or
accepting instructions from the government or any other body".
These first steps
towards Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) were consolidated in 1999: the
Banque de France became part of a federal system by joining the Eurosystem,
which consists of the European Central Bank (ECB), of which it holds a 20%
stake, and the 20 national central banks. Decisions concerning monetary policy
are now taken collectively by the Governing Council of the ECB, chaired by
Christine Lagarde, while our General Council continues to deliberate on internal
management issues.
To sum up, in 225 years, we have changed shareholders, the type of
-
relationship we have with the public authorities from controlled autonomy to
- -
independence and geographical scope from Paris to Europe. But we have
'governance' -
not changed our own we still have a Governor (I am the 31st)
-
and two Deputy Governors, fewer than many other comparable central banks
nor, above all, our missions: monetary and price stability, and the smooth
financing of the economy.
II) A beacon of confidence in France
The Banque de France has therefore represented a beacon of confidence in
times of economic and financial turmoil. The stabilisation of the French franc is
a prime example. After the First World War, the French economy gradually sank
into a crisis that worsened from 1924 onwards. There were three main
symptoms: a deterioration in public finances, a sharp depreciation of the franc
-
and government instability there were eight ministers of finance between 1925
and 1926. Headed by its new governor Émile Moreau (1926-1930), the Banque
de France endeavoured to defend the franc on the foreign exchange markets
and it managed to stabilise it at a rate that was conducive to confidence and
financial stability at the end of 1926. At the same time, Émile Moreau engaged
in extensive discussions with Raymond Poincaré, President of the Council of
Ministers, to convince him of the need to stabilise the franc, i.e. devaluation from
its pre-war parity. Émile Moreau had no hesitation in threatening to resign in the
national interest.vi The President of the Council of Ministers ended up coming
around to the position of the Banque de France: the monetary law of 25 June
1928 introduced the "Poincaré" franc and brought lasting calm to the financial
turmoil.
This is not an isolated example: several Banque de France personalities spurred
on a national recovery in the face of danger. In 1958 for example, the De Gaulle-
Pinay-Rueff financial stabilisation plan was largely inspiredvii by the economist
Jacques Rueff, former Deputy Governor of the Banque de France. Wilfrid
Baumgartner, former Governor of the Banque de France (1949-1960) and
Minister of Finance from 1960, ensured that it was successful. Two decades
- -
later in 1983, Jacques Delors whose name this auditorium honours averted
the spectre of a financial crisis by implementing fiscal cuts and de-indexation
measures to keep France in the European Monetary Systemviii (EMS).
We are an old and a great country that has overcome a number of serious crises
-
over the course of our history. This provides a lesson in resilience and perhaps
-
in hope at a time when our country has to regain control of its public finances.
And public opinion appreciates it when fiscal crises are overcome: each of the
personalities I referred to forged a strong political and historical stature, showing
that the French know how to recognise sound public management. The Banque
de France intends to remain a beacon of confidence in the face of current
uncertainties. Thanks to the almost certain victory over inflation, the Bank's
credible action means that the euro enjoys a historically high level of support
-
from 81% of European citizens and 76% of the French population.ix Drawing
upon its independence, it also has a duty to provide the political authorities with
its views and technical expertise on economic and fiscal issues, especially as
these are subject to strong short-term pressures and a highly volatile and fraught
-
public debate. We are currently at a historical turning point and I say this in all
-
seriousness our response may be found wanting. However, our long history
gives us an idea of what it takes to bounce back: to elevate public debate, we
must first extend the timeframe beyond current obsessions. We now need to
broaden the scope and learn to work together instead of engaging in French-
style petty squabbling.
III) An independent institution working for European monetary sovereignty
- -
Indeed, the other contemporary lesson alongside necessary French reform
is the need to work for European monetary sovereignty (III). Two significant
episodes illustrate this.
First, the 'battle of the franc', also known as the 'EMS crisis', which occurred
between 1992 and 1993 at a pivotal moment between the signing of the
Maastricht Treaty and its effective implementation. In September 1992, just
when the Treaty was due to be ratified in several Member States, speculative
attacks targeted European currencies, forcing some of them to leave the EMS.
Jacques de Larosière was Governor at the time and Jean-Claude Trichet, who
was to succeed him at the end of 1993, was still Director of the French Treasury.
The Banque de France intervened massivelyx on the foreign exchange markets
to support the franc. If the franc had left the EMS, it would have meant that the
European Monetary Union project would have been abandoned for a long time.
- -
Fortunately, this did not happen although it was a close-run thing and the
crisis was resolved within a European framework, as was the case later in July
1993, when the EMS fluctuation margins were finally widened, putting an end to
the pressure on exchange rates. Better still, this crisis revealed the fragile nature
of fixed exchange rates between national currencies and, in so doing,
strengthened the determination of Member States to complete the transition to
Monetary Union as quickly as possible.
I will now move on to a second crisis, this time an existential one for the euro
area. As of 2009, the global financial crisis began to mutate into a sovereign
debt crisis in the euro area. Certain heavily indebted Member States faced the
prospect of losing access to capital markets, and the euro area was in danger
of breaking up. This was the first real test of the collective response capacity of
the Eurosystem. It responded decisively by granting long-term loans to
commercial banks, buying sovereign bonds of Member States in difficulty on the
secondary market where necessary, and managing the specific cases of the
hardest-hit banks. Despite differences of opinion, the Member States managed
to find common ground through trust-based dialogue: they established a safety
net and created the European Stability Mechanism and the Banking Union
These two crises taught us another lesson in resilience: by acting together,
Europe has become more robust. In the words of Mario Draghi, Europe gained
the ability "to control its destiny"xi
thanks to this unique monetary sovereignty,
recognised - and sometimes envied - throughout the worldxii.
*
Given the current disheartening American u-turn, the euro's success serves as
a reminder of a more general lesson: should it so wish, Europe has the
resources to achieve economic, financial and, in the longer term, military
-
sovereignty. Today and I say this with sadness for the great nation of America
-
it is better to be European than American. If we so wish, Europe's time has
come. Rest assured that the Banque de France will build this strong Europe out
of granite.
i
Law of 22 April 1806
ii
Decrees of 27 April and 2 May 1848
iiiLaw of 24 July 1936 amending and supplementing the laws and statutes governing the Banque de France
iv
Law of 2 December 1945 on the nationalisation of the Banque de France and the major banks and the
organisation of credit
v
Law of 4 August 1993 on the status of the Banque de France and on the activities and supervision of credit
institutions.
vi
Souvenirs d'un Gouverneur de la Banque de
Moreau (E.), France, 1954
vii
Revue
Chélini (M.-P.), « Le plan de stabilisation Pinay-Rueff, 1958 », d'histoire moderne et contemporaine,
octobre-décembre 2001
viii
The European Monetary System (EMS), created in 1979, was intended to boost monetary policy cooperation
between members of the European Economic Community (EEC). The exchange rate of a given European currency
fixed "fluctuation margins" and to prevent fluctuations from
against all other currencies could not vary beyond
exceeding this limit, central banks had to intervene on the foreign exchange markets.
ix
European Commission, Eurobarometer, November 2024
x
Eichengreen (B.), Naef (A.), Journal of International
"Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis",
Economics, Vol. 138 , September 2022
xi
Draghi (M.), ", speech, 22 February 2019
"Sovereignty in a globalised world
xii
Monetary sovereignty in the 21st century
Villeroy de Galhau (F.), « », Speech, 14 November 2023 | - **Dynamic Governance Evolution:**
- The Banque de France governance evolved over 225 years to serve a broad general interest, transitioning from a listed company to a national institution.
- Originally influenced by private shareholders, state control increased in 1806 with a governor and deputy governors appointed by the head of state.
- In 1936, governance democratized with the General Council, post-nationalization in 1945, supporting France’s economic reconstruction.
- **Monetary Policy Independence:**
- The 1993 law granted independence to the Banque de France, establishing a Monetary Policy Council for objective policy-making.
- Integration with the Eurosystem in 1999, joining the European Central Bank (ECB) for collective monetary decision-making.
- **Confidence and Stability in France:**
- Historical interventions by the Banque de France have stabilized the French franc and aided economic recovery during crises.
- Key examples include the stabilization post-WWI and involvement in the De Gaulle-Pinay-Rueff financial plan in 1958.
- The bank remains committed to supporting governmental fiscal stability and maintaining public confidence.
- **European Monetary Sovereignty:**
- Emphasis on the importance of European collaboration for monetary sovereignty.
- The 'EMS crisis' of 1992-93 highlighted the need for monetary union, preventing breakdowns and steering towards the Euro.
- The 2009 euro area debt crisis showcased collective responses, establishing mechanisms like the European Stability Mechanism and the Banking Union.
- **Lessons in Resilience:**
- Historical crisis management demonstrates France’s and Europe’s ability to overcome severe financial challenges.
- Long-term collaboration and broadening the scope beyond short-term pressures are essential for stability.
- **Contemporary European Context:**
- The euro is recognized globally for its unique monetary sovereignty.
- The current European sovereignty is contrasted against American policy shifts, emphasizing Europe's potential for broader regional power.
- **Call for Enhanced Public Debate:**
- Encouragement of more extended, collaborative public discourse on economic issues to surmount current challenges effectively. | François Villeroy de Galhau | Banque de France | FR | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324l.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Philip R Lane: The digital euro - maintaining the autonomy of the monetary system | Keynote speech by Mr Philip R Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the University College Cork Economics Society Conference 2025, Cork, 20 March 2025. | SPEECH
The digital euro: maintaining the autonomy of the
monetary system
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of
the ECB, University College Cork Economics Society Conference 2025
Cork, 20 March 2025
It is a pleasure to participate in the annual conference of the UCC Economics Society. Today, I wish to
1 ]
discuss the digital euro, which is an important project at the ECB.[ Draft legislation has been proposed by
the European Commission and is currently under consideration by the Council of the European Union and
2 ]
the European Parliament.[
A few years ago, archaeologists excavated two silver coins at Carrignacurra Castle, not too far from here.
[ 3 ]
The first was a groat (a coin worth four pennies) from the 1200s depicting Henry III; the second was a
coin from the 1400s featuring Edward IV. These two coins indicated a society that regarded precious metal
as the embodiment of intrinsic value and closely associated money with sovereignty.
Over the centuries, the currency circulating in Ireland has changed multiple times. From 1927 until the
launch of the euro, the Irish pound (the punt) was the national currency of Ireland. The punt was not
backed by a precious metal, such as gold or silver. Rather, it was a fiat currency that derived its value from
government regulation, the assets backing the currency and trust in the issuing authority, the Central Bank
of Ireland and its forerunner the Currency Commission. Until 1979, the punt was pegged to the British
pound sterling at a 1:1 exchange rate, reflecting the historical linkages with the United Kingdom and the
significant bilateral trade volumes. It operated as legal tender until around a quarter century ago, when
Ireland along with ten other EU Member States introduced the euro (twenty countries are now members of
the euro area). By adopting the euro, Ireland reinforced its commitment to European integration, while also
reducing its dependence on the UK monetary and financial system.
The developments in Ireland's currency over time demonstrate how monetary systems are shaped by
broader societal and economic transformations. For instance, the history of Irish money includes two
episodes of free-banking money, whereby private banks issued banknotes that were used by the public as
4 ]
means of payment.[ In this aspect, the monetary history of Ireland resembles that of Scotland, England
and the United States. This history can shed some light on the current debate about the new forms of
private money that are emerging today, such as stablecoins in the context of a digitalising society - a trend
5 ]
that has become more pronounced in recent years.[
In an increasingly digitalised society, in which the role of physical banknotes issued by the central bank is
receding, the question arises whether the European Central Bank should issue a central bank digital
6 ]
currency (CBDC) for the euro area.[
7 ]
Today, I will explain why it is imperative for the ECB to introduce a digital euro.[ I will first discuss the
roles of central bank money and commercial bank money over time, before describing a range of
scenarios that suggest a digital euro is necessary to preserve the monetary autonomy of Europe. Finally,
before concluding, I will outline the benefits of the digital euro for Europe's Economic and Monetary Union.
Our current monetary system
The three main properties of money
Let me begin by recalling the three main characteristics of money: (i) it serves as a unit of account, (ii) it
provides a medium of exchange, and (iii) it is a store of value.
The unit of account property solves a basic coordination problem in any economy: it is a lot easier to set
prices and wages vis-a-vis a single benchmark (a loaf of bread is priced at, say, €2) rather than firms and
households resorting to a diversity of benchmarks (a loaf of bread is priced at 10 apples). Through its
interest rate and balance sheet policies, the central bank can provide overall price stability by ensuring
that average prices do not rise by more than two per cent per year over the medium term.
The medium of exchange function reflects the superiority of monetary exchange to barter-type alternative
systems. Suppose someone earns income by working as a university professor but wishes to consume a
wide range of goods and services: it is a lot simpler to receive her salary in euro and pay for her desired
goods and services in euro rather than searching for suppliers that might be willing to exchange a
particular good or service for a customised university lecture. A huge volume of transactions occurs every
day, with firms and household buying and selling products in exchange for monetary payments. The
central bank anchors the payment systems that process these transactions. In particular, a request by a
customer with an account in Bank A to make a €100 payment to a merchant with an account in Bank B is
settled through an interbank transaction in which €100 is deducted from the reserve account of Bank A at
the central bank and €100 is credited to the reserve account of Bank B at the central bank.
Money also acts a store of value. Alongside other financial and non-financial assets, households also hold
bank deposits and banknotes in order to transfer purchasing power from one period to the next. Since
overnight bank deposits (current accounts) pay nil or very little interest and banknotes do not pay interest,
8 ]
money is typically dominated by other assets in relation to long-term saving and investment plans.[ At the
same time, money provides a highly-liquid store of value and its roles as a unit of account and medium of
exchange are closely connected to its role in preserving liquidity from one period to the next.
Two sides of the same coin
In essence, our monetary system consists of two layers: "central bank money" and "commercial bank
money". The use of the term "money" here does not mean that we are speaking about two independent
types of money. In practice, central bank money and commercial bank money are intertwined: indeed, it is
essential that households and firms view these as equivalent. The label simply refers to the type of entity
that issues the respective components of the aggregate money supply. More general terms for these two
layers underline how money is created and distributed in the economy: since central bank money
(banknotes and the central bank reserves held by commercial banks) is issued by the central bank, it
originates outside the private sector and is referred to as "outside" money. By contrast, commercial bank
money (bank deposits) originates from, and circulates within, the private sector and is called "inside"
money (seen from the perspective of the private sector).
As central bank money is issued directly by the central bank, from an accounting perspective, it is backed
by the assets of the central bank. That is, the Eurosystem can increase the supply of euro "outside" money
by crediting the reserve accounts held by commercial banks at the central bank in exchange for assets.
This can be done by providing a loan to a bank (strictly, a temporary collateralised loan under its
9 ]
refinancing operations) or by acquiring bonds.[ As noted above, the reserve accounts held by commercial
banks at the central bank are an essential component of the overall monetary system, since most
monetary transactions involve an interbank transfer from the customer's bank to the merchant's bank
whereby funds are deducted from the reserve account of the customer's bank and credited to the reserve
account of the merchant's bank. In turn, this implies that a commercial bank can only efficiently provide
banking services to its customers (and maintain the trust of its counterparts) if it has sufficient central bank
reserves to meet payment and withdrawal requests. Currently, commercial banks hold about €3 trillion in
reserve accounts in the Eurosystem (corresponding to about 20 per cent of euro area GDP). As euro
liabilities of the central bank, these reserves are the ultimate safe asset: there is zero credit risk. Moreover,
reserves are the highest form of liquidity (one euro is always one euro), which is the foundation for
reserves as the settlement asset for inter-bank transactions.
The supply of euro "outside" money also includes about €1.6 trillion in banknotes (about 10 per cent of
euro area GDP). Mechanically, banknotes are supplied via the banking system: an individual bank might
request €10 million in banknotes to feed its ATMs or in response to the currency demands of its corporate
customers and its reserve account with the Eurosystem is duly debited for this amount. If the bank does
not have enough reserves for that operation, it must borrow them either from another bank or from the
central bank itself. In the aggregate, this means the central bank also funds its acquisition of assets by
issuing banknotes.
Unlike standard liabilities of other institutions, central bank money is not redeemable for commodities
(such as gold) or alternative means of payment or stores of value. Instead, its intrinsic value comes from
its acceptance as currency, which is deeply connected to the credibility of the monetary policy of the
central bank in maintaining its value in terms of purchasing power (that is, maintaining price stability). This
credibility is crucial because it shapes public trust in the currency and its stability.
In turn, the authority and credibility of the central bank are intrinsically linked to its sovereign foundations.
In national currency systems, the central bank is established by the nation state as the monopoly provider
10 ]
of "outside" money.[ In the euro area, the ECB was established by the Treaty on European Union and
controls the issue of euro as a currency, with the mandate to maintain price stability. The Eurosystem
(comprising the ECB and the national central banks of those EU Member States whose currency is the
euro) decides and implements monetary policy decisions.
By contrast, commercial bank money is created through the lending and intermediation activities of
commercial banks. Mechanically, when a bank makes a loan to a firm or household, it creates a deposit in
the account of the borrower, thereby increasing the overall money supply (the sum of outside and inside
money). The value of commercial bank money - mainly bank deposits - is pegged to central bank money:
a €50 deposit has the same value as a €50 banknote. In turn, this means that retail transactions can be
settled either by transferring funds from the bank account of the customer to the bank account of the
11 ]
merchant or by paying in banknotes.[ The equivalence of bank deposits and banknotes is maintained
through the promise of convertibility of bank deposits into banknotes (and vice versa): in particular,
customers always have the outside option to withdraw their deposits in favour of banknotes that are
backed by the central bank.
While banknotes (and coins) are still widely used to purchase goods and services, the central role played
by commercial banks in an efficient payment system reflects the transactions services provided by banks
to their depositors: inside money is particularly attractive as a means of payment, especially for large-scale
12 ] [ 13 ]
transactions.[ For all these reasons, commercial bank money today accounts for the bulk of the
money in circulation. For instance, in the euro area, the size of our broad monetary aggregate M3 is ten
14 ]
times that of the banknotes in circulation.[
Inside money is ultimately backed by the assets of the commercial bank, primarily loans and, to a lesser
extent, bonds. Put differently, commercial bank money is not completely "information insensitive" in the
following sense: its value is conditional on the creditworthiness of borrowers and the financial health of
banks. For this precise reason, commercial banks are heavily regulated and closely supervised. In
addition, deposit insurance limits the risk that a liquidity shortage may hamper the capacity of the bank to
convert deposits into cash in full and on demand, while central banks typically respond to systemic stress
events by elastically providing liquidity to the banking system. While these safeguards are extensive, the
traditional ability of customers to convert bank deposits into banknotes has played a foundational role in
ensuring that the value of inside money is anchored by the value of outside money. In particular, outside
money is entirely "information insensitive" since it is the central bank that statutorily issues currency, which
is the ultimate means for discharging liabilities in the economy. Furthermore, the direct access of the
general public to outside money in the form of banknotes has underpinned the stability of the unit of
account: in this way, everyone in society has had a personal (and, indeed, emotional) connection to
central bank money.
An evolutionary process towards a flexible but stable monetary system
This two-tier monetary system emerged gradually over the centuries.
The coins that were discovered in the nearby excavations in Cork are clear examples of state money -
complete with depictions of a sovereign that reinforced the authority of the state backing the coins. Of
course, the emergence of state money goes further back. In ancient civilisations such as the Roman
Empire or imperial China, state money provided a degree of standardisation in terms of weight, metal
15 ]
content and design that ensured trust in the value of the coins.[ This way, state-issued coins were
recognised and accepted across the vast territories of the empire; these were "information insensitive" -
facilitating trade and taxation and, in general, monetary exchanges. The standardisation was a public good
which generated widespread benefits that individual agents could have not easily produced on their own,
thus improving social welfare. A broadly accepted means of payment facilitated the local exchange of
goods and fostered trade over longer distances. As indicated earlier, this contrasts with the disadvantages
16 ]
of the direct exchange of goods (or barter), which requires the "double coincidence of wants".[
The need for more efficient financial instruments to support the expanding trade networks and economic
activities in those economically dynamic empires also gave rise to the origins of inside money. In the
China of the Tang Dynasty (the High Middle Ages in western chronology), the "feiqian" or "flying cash" was
developed to solve the challenges of long-distance trade. The "feiqian" functioned as a promissory note,
allowing the holder to redeem it for cash at a designated location. That experience paved the way for the
issuance of "jiaozi", the first exchange notes, which appeared before the end of the first millennium. These
circulated freely in the market, becoming the first paper money, which helped China overcome challenges
17 ]
such as coin shortages in the context of a rapidly growing economy.[ Moreover, it is worth noting that
Song China's paper money was initially freely issued by private merchants and later taken over by the
government to ensure stability and trust. The lessons from China's monetary history do not end there:
18 ]
over-issuance brought paper money to an end during the 15th century (Ming dynasty).[
19 ]
The complex societies of Rome and imperial China also generated early forms of banking.[ However,
the economic revival of late medieval and Renaissance Europe recreated banking in a way that expanded
its activities to accepting deposits, making loans and engaging in trade remittance, with a proliferation of
letters of exchange. All that came with a simple, but crucial, technological innovation affecting ledgers:
20 ]
double-entry bookkeeping improved the accuracy, transparency and reliability of financial records.[
Nevertheless, Renaissance Europe experienced challenges related to the complexity and fragmentation of
the system, with numerous kingdoms, principalities and city states each issuing their own currency. In
certain cases, this gave rise to a sort of "currency substitution", with a widespread acceptance and use of
certain currencies well beyond their issuing region due to their perceived stability, the economic and
21 ]
political power of their issuers and the trust these commanded in international trade.[
Still, the public deposit banks of that period, which were precursors of central banks as we know them
today, contributed to the stability to the monetary system and reduced its complexity. These public deposit
banks offered settlement of payments in their accounts and some of them were pioneers in creating
22 ]
certificates of deposits that could be used as proto-banknotes.[ Indeed, it was that government backing
that helped the banknotes issued by the Swedish Riksbank (founded in 1668) and by the Bank of England
(founded in 1694), the oldest central banks that still operate today, to achieve widespread acceptance in
23 ]
the course of the 18th century.[
The popularity of banknotes reflected a tacit acknowledgement that a monetary system solely consisting of
precious metals was not only inconvenient but could not keep pace with the rapidly growing needs of
24 ]
commerce.[ Without a government monopoly in the issuance of banknotes, private institutions not linked
to the government also started issuing banknotes, as had already occurred in China almost a millennium
earlier. The apex of that development occurred during the free-banking experiences in the 19th century, a
system characterised by competitive note issuance with low legal barriers to entry, and little or no central
25 ]
control of the assets backing these banknotes.[ At that time, these assets mainly consisted of scarce
commodities such as gold or of certain securities deemed to have low enough risk.
However, repeated panics and banking crises during the century led early central banks such as the Bank
of England and the Riksbank to de facto assume the role of lender of last resort - one of the classical
tasks of a modern central bank, as articulated in Walter Bagehot's Lombard Street: a description of the
26 ][ 27 ]
in 1873.[ By ensuring that banks had sufficient liquidity to meet requests to exchange
money market
bank deposits for cash, the frequency and severity of banking crises were reduced and the resulting
system helped bridge the gap between outside and inside money. The gap was further closed by the
growing moves towards the central bank's monopoly as sole issuer of banknotes and the legal
28 ]
establishment of state-backed paper money as legal tender.[
However, at the time, central banks and governments had not yet developed the institutional frameworks
29 ]
and policy tools necessary to manage such fiat currencies effectively.[ Rather, credibility relied on
backing currency with metallic standards. The straitjacket of a metallic standard constrained their ability to
flexibly respond to macroeconomic fluctuations and financial crises - as evident, for instance, during the
30 ]
gold standard period.[
As the twentieth century progressed, the monetary system evolved beyond the constraints of metallic
standards. The comprehensive regulation of banks, the establishment of deposit guarantee schemes and
the abandonment of the gold standard, particularly after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in the early
1970s, permitted the transition to our layered fiat currency system. In that system, privately-issued means
of payment in the form of scriptural inside money is valued to the extent that there is sufficient confidence
that it can always be converted in full and upon demand into what has become the foundation of the whole
monetary architecture: unbacked outside money issued, in the form of paper banknotes or electronic
31 ][ 32 ]
reserves held by commercial banks, by a sovereign or a central bank acting in the public interest.[
Modern central banks now operate within institutional frameworks that prioritise transparency,
independence, and accountability. By relying on these flexible and credible setups, and within the
guardrails of their statutes that mandate them to the pursuit of clear objectives, central banks have
acquired and retained the tools for managing the currency in a way that fosters price stability and
balanced growth.
The historical evolution of our monetary system highlights several key lessons. Central banks, by ensuring
standardisation of outside money, trust in its value, and fungibility, provide an important public good: price
stability as the prerequisite for macroeconomic stability. At the same time, inside money enhances the
efficiency of the monetary system by addressing practical challenges, leveraging technological
innovations, and meeting the liquidity and transaction needs of complex economies. The lesson of history
is that inside money is best safeguarded through regulation and supervision of banks, the provision of
deposit insurance and the willingness of the central bank to act as the lender of last resort in the event of a
systemic liquidity crisis. In summary, an optimal combination of both inside money and outside money
creates an efficient and resilient monetary system that can adapt to changing technological and economic
conditions while maintaining stability and public trust in the currency.
CBDC as a robust response to digitalisation
This evolution has brought us to the stable two-tier monetary system that I highlighted earlier. Central bank
money serves as the monetary anchor: the central bank has full sovereignty over monetary policy; all
forms of commercial bank money are convertible at par with central bank money; and payments can be
made with both inside and outside money.
We are now witnessing a profound technological revolution that is reshaping economies worldwide.
Naturally, as has always been the case, money will adapt to these shifts. I am referring to three trends in
particular.
First, the increasing digitalisation of our economy is changing payment methods and behaviours. For
instance, e-commerce now accounts for around one third of non-recurring payments in the euro area.
Similarly, e-payment solutions (e-payment wallets and mobile apps) are gaining traction, growing at
33 ]
double-digit rates.[ These developments highlight the diminishing role of physical banknotes as a means
34 ]
of payment in an increasingly digital world.[
Second, entirely new forms of financial assets are emerging in in the wake of this digital transformation.
Decentralised finance applications and crypto-assets such as bitcoin aim to bypass traditional financial
intermediation. Of particular relevance as a medium of exchange are stablecoins. The proponents of
stablecoins seek to combine the advantages of distributed ledger technologies with a stable conversion
rate into traditional currencies. By contrast, crypto-assets such as bitcoin are not well suited to performing
the medium of exchange function due to high price volatility and an incapacity to process high volumes of
transactions at speed.
Third, digital ecosystems - platforms such as Alibaba and Alipay that integrate proprietary forms of money
with other services - are creating closed environments that encourage consumers to remain within
35 ]
specific systems.[
These technological advances offer opportunities, such as a more efficient and innovative financial
system, but also pose challenges. These have the potential to disrupt the delicate balance of the two-tier
monetary system and could threaten the sovereignty of central banks over monetary policy. Taking a
forward-looking perspective is crucial because network effects heavily influence how money and payment
systems evolve. The more widely a form of money or payment application is used, the more attractive it
becomes to others - a dynamic that can entrench suboptimal developments if these take hold. For
instance, once the adoption of a payment system or a communication app reaches a certain threshold,
people tend to continue using it because others are also using it, which makes it more convenient but also
"locks in" users. At that point, reversing the adoption trend becomes exceedingly difficult.
It follows that we need to anticipate this type of development and be prepared if it materialises, because
our responsibility is to ensure that the foundations of a monetary system that has proved its value are
preserved for the future. I would like to explore the three trends that I have just identified in more detail
and understand their implications. Those trends are likely to occur simultaneously and to various degrees,
and are likely to interact with each other. Nevertheless, to simplify the analysis, let me analyse these
trends one by one.
A decreasing use of banknotes by the public
Within an ever-expanding digital economy, there is an increasing share of online transactions. The ECB
remains committed to continue providing physical cash in the future and ensuring cash acceptance
throughout the euro area. At the same time, the more transactions are made online, the lower the
possibility for consumers to pay with physical banknotes, which are the legal tender and - together with
their electronic counterparts, the central-bank-issued euro reserves held by banks - constitute the current
36 ]
form of central bank money.[ This is obviously a natural technological progression, but it raises profound
questions about the role of central bank money and the stability of the monetary system.
Will monetary policy remain effective and the monetary system cohesive if that trend continues?
Traditionally, cash has played a critical role in maintaining trust in the convertibility of commercial bank
money into central bank money and supporting effective monetary policy. Cash issued by the central bank
acts as a "glue" and vivid reminder that all forms of money - whether commercial bank deposits or other
forms of inside money - owe their wide acceptance in commerce to their convertibility into central bank
money at par. This possibility of convertibility fosters trust in the value of deposits and helps to contain the
"information sensitivity" of commercial bank money to a minimum, such that transactions of goods and
services are fluid and unhampered by a constant need to verify the standing of the means of payment
offered in exchange.
Conversely, the absence of such a monetary anchor could slow down and fragment the web of daily
transactions that form the modern-day multi-trillion payment system. In addition to fostering trust, having
public access to central bank money serves as a disciplining mechanism, providing a reliable fallback
37 ]
option to using commercial bank money.[ In turn, the option of using central bank money for payments
limits the scope for commercial payment systems to exploit monopoly power to charge excessive payment
38 ]
fees.[ As the share of online transactions increases, the extent to which the option to make payments in
cash can act as a disciplinary tool against market power decreases.
The convertibility stipulation that lies at the foundation of our layered monetary system necessitates that
commercial banks are granted access to central bank money in sufficient amounts to always be able to
convert deposits into banknotes upon demand. As noted earlier, the central bank creates reserves - an
electronic form of cash that can only be held by commercial banks - by making loans to the banks or by
purchasing assets. Together with the interest rates charged on loans to banks, the interest rate paid on the
reserves held by banks is the lever through which a modern central bank influences interest rates across
39 ]
the financial system, thereby affecting monetary conditions across the economy.[
Without positive demand for central bank money, this link would weaken or disappear, undermining the
ability of the central bank to guide monetary conditions. As inflation is determined over the medium term
by monetary policy, dwindling demand for central bank money could threaten the control of the monetary
40 ]
authority over inflation and risk price indeterminacy.[
Even if there was zero demand for banknotes and the general public did not directly hold money issued by
the central bank, there would still be demand from commercial banks for the electronic cash (reserves)
issued by the central bank in order to have sufficient liquidity to cope with high and volatile volumes of
41 ]
interbank payments and to be in a position to meet deposit withdrawal requests.[ In principle, under
normal conditions, the central bank could continue to deliver price stability by raising or lowering the
interest rates paid on the reserve deposits held by commercial banks and the interest rates charged to
supply extra reserves through making loans to commercial banks.
However, if the general public did not directly hold central bank money, an important and historic
safeguard would no longer be available, namely the ability of firms and households to make direct
payments in central bank money - banknotes. Moreover, the absence of a default central bank payments
option that sits outside the commercial banking system could also endanger the capacity of the central
bank to deliver price stability, especially under stressed conditions. In particular, if the payments system
were to be totally dependent on the soundness of commercial banks, this would further raise the stakes in
scenarios in which liquidity provision to commercial banks might run against the appropriate monetary
policy stance. In summary, while the private incentives of individual commercial banks and the array of
safeguards discussed above go a long way in underpinning monetary stability, the weakening of the
effective capacity of the general public to transact in central bank money directionally increases risk in the
monetary system.
Stablecoins as a medium of exchange
What are the challenges facing our monetary system in an era of rapid technological change? Intuitively,
distributed ledger technologies can provide the technological platform for a decentralised system in which
private issuers could offer to settle transactions in secure and apparently "information insensitive" forms of
money outside traditional central bank systems. For example, bearer-based stablecoins - digital
representations of private electronic banknotes that are designed to be backed by safe assets such as
government bonds or bank deposits - could bypass settlement via central bank reserves altogether,
42 ]
thereby creating a monetary ecosystem that flies under the radar of central bank oversight.[
In particular, central bank money would play a much-diminished role in the payments system, if
households and firms were to maintain their primary transaction accounts in stablecoins and only use
43 ]
commercial bank accounts to upload and download funds from these transaction accounts.[ In a sense,
a stablecoin provider would resemble a so-called narrow bank that only holds high quality liquid assets
and promises to maintain a stable value of its liabilities (the funds held by customers in their stablecoin
accounts). While the pros and cons of narrow banking have been much debated over the decades, a
material decline in the volume of deposits held in commercial banks would disrupt the role of commercial
banks in credit provision, which is especially prominent in the bank-based European financial system.
Moreover, even if stablecoins were fully backed by deposits in the commercial banking system (that is the
stablecoin provider would match stablecoin liabilities with deposit assets), these deposits would effectively
constitute "wholesale" deposits rather than "retail" deposits, resulting in a lower liquidity coverage ratio
44 ]
(LCR).[
Indeed, stablecoins, which are designed to maintain a stable value relative to a specified asset or pool of
45 ][ 46 ]
assets, have already gained a significant foothold in the crypto-asset universe.[ Their appeal lies in
47 ]
their ease of use and innovative features and in the possibility for fast, low-cost transactions.[ While
stablecoins play a central role in settling transactions in other crypto assets, it is clear that stablecoins are
also attracting interest in the facilitating low-cost cross-border transactions in the "traditional" economy and
financial system.
In particular, despite significant technological progress, cross-border trade between countries remains to
this day costly and inefficient, with large-value payments going through the correspondent banking
network, which can take days to settle. There are unrealised positive network externalities, which are
48 ]
particularly evident to companies that maintain global supply cha | - Introduction of the digital euro project as essential for maintaining monetary autonomy in the Eurozone.
- Technological innovations necessitate adaptation, including a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
- Historical view of money’s evolution highlights the need for a modernized system like the digital euro.
- Central bank money serves as the monetary anchor, crucial for price stability and preventing fragmentation.
- Digitalisation is reshaping payment methods, leading to reduced use of physical banknotes.
- Stablecoins and new digital assets challenge traditional financial systems and central bank oversight.
- Risks of foreign digital currencies dominating the domestic payment landscape.
- A digital euro could safeguard monetary sovereignty and prevent dominance by private digital systems or foreign currencies.
- Platform-based payment systems may create closed environments limiting consumer choice.
- The digital euro aims to offer an open, interoperable alternative ensuring societal welfare and competition.
- The strategic importance of the digital euro for Europe in a fragmented geopolitical landscape.
- Emphasis on protecting the euro’s role and European strategic autonomy.
- The digital euro as a tool to unify fragmented payment systems across the euro area.
- Potential of digital euro to create efficiencies and reduce reliance on non-European payment service providers. | Philip R Lane | European Central Bank | EU | Member of the Executive Board | Executive Board Member | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324d.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Tiff Macklem: Navigating tariff uncertainty | Remarks by Mr Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, at the Calgary Economic Development, Calgary, Alberta, 20 March 2025. | Remarks by Tiff Macklem
Governor of the Bank of Canada
Calgary Economic Development
March 20, 2025
Calgary, Alberta
Navigating tariff uncertainty
Introduction
Good morning. It's a pleasure to be here in Alberta. I want to
thank Calgary
Economic Development for the invitation. The last time I spoke in Calgary was
about 18 months ago-September 2023. The post-pandemic crisis was easing,
Bank of Canada's
but uncertainty remained. Inflation was still above 3%, and the
policy interest rate was 5%. Canadians were being squeezed by still-elevated
inflation and higher interest rates. Could we get inflation back to our 2% target
without tipping the economy into recession?
As 2024 closed out, this question was largely resolved. Inflation was on target,
and economic growth had picked up. The Canadian economy was in good
shape.
Inflation came down through the first half of last year and had been close to 2%
since last summer. As the Bank's Governing Council became more confident that
inflation was on track to return to target, we began reducing our policy interest
rate, starting last spring. Substantial rate cuts through the rest of the year
boosted household spending, and economic growth picked up to 2.2% in the
third quarter and 2.6% in the fourth. Employment growth also strengthened in
November through January, and the unemployment rate came down.
The Canadian economy managed a soft landing. Unfortunately, we're not going
to stay on the tarmac for long.
We now face a new economic crisis. Since President Trump began threatening
to impose a wide range of tariffs on Canadian exports, uncertainty has increased
sharply. Depending on the extent and duration of tariffs, the economic impact
could be severe. The uncertainty is already causing harm.
a lot we don't know. Some new tariffs are in place on steel
There's and
aluminium as well as on goods not in compliance with the Canada-US-Mexico
We don't know how long these will last. And we don't know if tariffs
Agreement.
will broaden to other sectors. In the last two months, the US administration has
twice imposed and then retracted universal tariffs on all imports from Canada and
Mexico. President Trump has also threatened to extend tariffs to a wide range of
industries, including autos, semi-conductors and pharmaceuticals. And he has
repeatedly said new "reciprocal" tariffs are coming on April 2 on many countries,
although what exactly this means is unclear.
Most disturbing of all for Canadians, President Trump has threatened our
sovereignty, repeatedly referring to Canada as the 51st state. There can be no
question about our sovereignty or our border.
Last month, I gave a speech about the effects of broad-based tariffs on the
Canadian economy. Today I want to advance the discussion in three ways.
First, I want to discuss what tariffs could mean for specific sectors-and specific
regions-of the country.
Second, I'll talk about the impacts of uncertainty caused by
on-again, off-again
tariffs and threats of more to come. Canadian businesses and households are
doing their best to navigate the unpredictability of US policy, and that uncertainty
is affecting our economy.
Finally, I'll talk about how
the Bank is navigating monetary policy in the face of
can't
unusual uncertainty. Monetary policy cannot solve a trade war. And we
make the uncertainty go away. But we can make sure we don't add to it by
ensuring inflation remains anchored on our 2% target. Canadians are worried
about trade uncertainty. We don't want them to have to worry about inflation as
well.
We have a lot of ground to cover, so let's get started.
Tariffs and uncertainty will hurt key sectors and regions
In my speech last month, I outlined how the universal tariffs on Canada and
Mexico that were threatened by President Trump would impact the Canadian
economy. I outlined the channels and broad impacts of a 25% tariff on
nonenergy exports and 10% on energy exports, together with the retaliatory tariffs
proposed by the Canadian government. Our economic models predict exports
and business investment would decline sharply, the economy would work less
efficiently, and we would earn and consume less. Higher tariffs would also
increase prices, causing inflation to rise for a period as the upward pressure on
prices from higher costs would outweigh the downward pressure from a weaker
economy.1
Since that speech in February, the level and timing of tariffs have changed
several times. And there remain too many unknowns to predict what happens
next.
But we know that the tariffs and the uncertainty-if they are maintained-will
particularly hurt a few key sectors. And that will have a big impact on Canada's
regional economies, including here in Western Canada.
As those of you in the room know all too well, for Alberta the hit to the energy
industry from a 10% tariff is a major concern. It's also a big issue for Midwest
US refineries that have invested heavily in equipment to refine heavy Canadian
oil. Roughly 94% of Canadian crude oil exports go to the United States, mostly
through north-south pipelines.
The launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline has increased the access
of Canadian oil to overseas markets, and new export capacity for liquefied
natural gas (LNG) is coming online. This helps to diversify the markets for
Canadian energy exports, but these investments were designed to augment our
export capacity-not replace US demand.
Looking ahead, US tariffs could put downward pressure on Canadian energy
prices and reduce the profitability of Canadian energy producers-at least until
access to other markets can be expanded. The hit to profits combined with the
uncertainty means that investment will likely drop, and employment could follow. I
know Albertans have lived through boom-and-bust commodity cycles for
generations. But a threat to the Canada-US energy relationship is not something
we've ever had to contemplate.
The other Prairie provinces are also being affected. The United States has
they've
temporarily exempted fertilizers, including potash, from tariffs. And
lowered the planned tariffs from 25% to 10% for non-compliant exports. But
uncertainty remains. Spring seeding will soon begin, and farmers on both sides
of the border are already feeling pressure from low grain prices. US farmers
import potash from Saskatchewan to add potassium to their soil, while Canadian
farmers often need US phosphate to fertilize their crops. Other tariffs will have an
impact, too. Canadian farmers buy machinery and equipment from the United
States. And China has said it will impose a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil
and meal, effective today. China is the top market for Canadian canola-the
export value is close to $5 billion. It's a very difficult
situation so close to planting
season and adds to the uncertainty Canadian farmers are already facing.
Other parts of the country, particularly Ontario and Quebec, will be disrupted by
the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. In 2024, the United States imported about
one-quarter of its steel and 40% of its aluminum from Canada, and Canada
imported one-quarter of its steel and one-fifth of its aluminum from the United
States. Those cross-border flows means that these sectors would be hit by both
It's going to hurt output and increase prices.
US tariffs and counter tariffs.
Monetary policy cannot target specific industries or regions. We have one
monetary policy for the whole country. But to assess the overall implications of
new tariffs, it's critical we understand their impact industry by industry and how
this is affecting and spilling over across regions.
The Bank's regional offices across the country-in Halifax, Montréal, Toronto,
Calgary and Vancouver-gather economic intelligence across industries and
economic regions. I am pleased to be joined by Farrukh Suvankulov, head of our
Calgary regional office, which covers the Prairies and Northwest Territories. Our
Calgary office is our second-largest after our headquarters in Ottawa.
Pervasive uncertainty
Beyond the impacts of tariffs, the pervasive uncertainty created by the sudden
and unpredictable shifts in US trade policy is affecting both the Canadian and
US economies.
Trade policy uncertainty measures-such as the index in Chart 1-have spiked
in recent months.2 After more than 50 years of high predictability in trade policy,
during President Trump's first term in
there was a sharp increase in uncertainty
that uncertainty doesn't
office. But come close to what we see now.
There are at least two kinds of uncertainty related to US tariffs. There is
uncertainty about the tariffs themselves-which tariffs will actually come to pass
and how long will they last. There is also uncertainty about the economic impacts
of tariffs. We've not had to grapple
with such large broad-based tariff increases
since the 1930s.
Let me elaborate.
Uncertainty about US tariffs
Consumer confidence has fallen sharply in both Canada and the United States.
Conference Board of Canada's index of
After recovering through last year, the
consumer confidence fell to its lowest level on record in March amid the chaos
University of Michigan's
around US tariffs. And the survey of US consumers also
declined, with sentiment now at 21⁄2-year lows.
the Bank of Canada published new survey data on what we're
Last week,
hearing from households and businesses.3 Canadians told us they have become
more worried about their jobs and financial security, and they intend to pull back
on their spending. That's particularly true for workers in
industries that rely on
trade-including manufacturing, mining, and oil and gas.
Businesses have lowered their sales outlooks, notably in manufacturing and in
sectors that depend on consumer spending. Some businesses report credit has
become harder to access. And with a weaker Canadian dollar, the cost of
imported machinery and equipment has risen. Businesses are telling us they are
delaying or cancelling investments and scaling back on hiring.
Uncertainty is also affecting businesses' pricing decisions. Businesses have told
us that they face new costs associated with sourcing new suppliers, finding new
markets and managing inventories. The majority of businesses plan to pass on
these costs, as well as the direct costs of any new tariffs, to the prices of the
goods they sell.
Our surveys also find that near-term inflation expectations have risen in Canada
as businesses and consumers brace for higher prices. Short-term inflation
expectations of US consumers have also risen materially for the first time
since 2022.
Finally, uncertainty is also taking a toll on financial markets. Equity prices are
down sharply in the last few weeks, particularly in the United States. US stock
market indices have fallen by about 10% from their recent peaks. And bond
yields have come down. Markets are revising down their growth outlook for
North America.
The damage caused by tariff uncertainty has started on both sides of the border.
Uncertainty about the impacts
Even if and when we know what tariffs will be imposed, it's hard to know
exactly
how consumers and businesses will react. It is clear that higher tariffs mean less
demand, weaker growth and higher inflation. The mechanics of tariffs are
straightforward. Tariffs on Canadian exports will be paid by the US company
buying those goods. And the company will pass at least some of the cost onto
the US consumer. The same goes for retaliatory tariffs on goods Canada imports
from the United States.
What is less clear is how much tariffs will dent demand and how much they will
be passed on to consumer prices. Will US buyers continue to buy imported
Canadian goods when tariffs are added to the bill? If they are buying something
they can't get anywhere else, maybe they'll accept a 25% price increase. But
they will likely buy less of it. And if substitutes are available, Canadian exports
may fall a lot.
The impact of tariffs on consumer prices will be affected by the strength of
demand. In our recent survey, about half of businesses said they intended to
raise prices as they cope with higher costs related to both tariffs and uncertainty,
and three-quarters of those said they would pass most of the cost increases onto
their customers. But these intentions may change as economic conditions
evolve. We will be monitoring these business intentions closely.
The uncertainty about the pass-through of higher costs to consumer prices is of
particular importance to monetary policy. Our mandate is price stability-low
inflation is the best way we can support the economic and financial well-being of
Canadians in good times and bad. So we're
watching closely how the costs of
tariffs and uncertainty pass-through to consumer prices.
Chart 2 illustrates the sensitivity of inflation to different assumptions about the
speed at which higher tariffs pass through to prices. In all three cases, we
assume 100% pass-through, but we vary the speed from one to three years.4 In
practice, different items will experience very different speeds of pass-through.
Tariffs on fruit and vegetables, for example, will likely be passed through almost
immediately-these are perishable goods. Prices for more complicated goods
with different components and longer-term contracts will tend to take longer to
rise. Our focus is on the overall response.
As you can see, a faster pass-through (the blue line) means inflation would rise
by more but also come down faster, provided monetary policy does its job.
means inflation doesn't rise as high, but it
Slower pass-through (the red line)
remains elevated for longer. In all three cases, monetary policy responds with the
goal of ensuring inflation returns to the target over time. The more inflationary the
impact, the less scope monetary policy has to support the economy. Instead, it
needs to put more focus on anchoring inflation expectations, which risk drifting
up when inflation rises more and more quickly.
What uncertainty means for monetary policy
Let me now turn to how the Bank of Canada is navigating tariff uncertainty.
At the most fundamental level, we are anchored by our monetary policy
framework-our 2% inflation target. We cannot resolve trade uncertainty, but
there can be no doubt about our commitment to low inflation. Canadians need to
have confidence that we will maintain price stability over time, even during
periods of global upheaval.
not something
We know that some prices will rise when the tariffs hit-that's
monetary policy can stop. What monetary policy can-and must-do is prevent
those initial, direct price increases from spreading. We must ensure that higher
prices from tariffs do not become ongoing generalized inflation. Simply put, we
a tariff problem doesn't become an inflation problem.
need to make sure that
To do that, we're
doing three things.
First, we're tracking cost increases through to consumer prices.
Once prices
have gone up to reflect the tariffs-a one-time increase-we want to see prices
We don't want
stabilize at that higher level, at least until the tariffs are dropped.
to see price increases become more broad-based or inflation expectations start
to move significantly away from target.
Second, we're improving our analysis to better inform our policy decisions. We've
built better and richer multi-sector economic models as well as models that better
account for links between Canada and the world. The Bank is using these new
models to analyze different tariff scenarios.
Finally, we're
doing more outreach across Canada, both in-person and digitally.
We are being nimble with our surveys so we can reach companies and
households quickly.
We can't
reduce uncertainty about US trade policy. But we are doing our best to
reduce the uncertainty about the impacts of tariffs. All this work informs our
monetary policy deliberations.
Still, we need to confront the reality that, like everyone else, we are taking
decisions against a background of pervasive uncertainty. This affects how we
take monetary policy decisions.
Let me explain.
In normal times, when Governing Council meets, we agree on an economic
projection that is our view of the most likely outcome for the economy. That
projection is based on economic data, surveys and the historical relationships
captured in our models. That's our base case. And then we discuss the risks
around that outlook. Our monetary policy discussions are geared toward deciding
on the best monetary policy given the most likely outcome for the economy and
the risks around that outcome.
But in a situation of pervasive uncertainty, it's very hard for any of us on
Governing Council to have high conviction about the most likely outcome.
Several outcomes can all look plausible. Different people will weigh the various
factors differently. That's natural, and it's one of the benefits of having diverse
perspectives around the table.
When we have this high degree of uncertainty around the base case, we give
more consideration to the risks. Our focus is less about the best monetary policy
for a specific economic outlook and more about policy that works for different
outcomes. To see why, consider the alternative. If we were to guess where the
economy is heading and make policy to optimize that outcome, we'd risk getting
it wrong. Our actions could be ineffective or even make the outcome worse. So
we need to set policy that minimizes the risk. That means being less
forwardlooking than normal until the situation is clearer. And it may mean acting quickly
when things crystallize. We need to be flexible and adaptable.
Conclusion
It's time for me to wrap up.
I've spent much of my time
today talking about uncertainty. Unfortunately, the
uncertainty we face may last a while. That will make it difficult for Canadian
businesses to figure out their best strategy and hard for Canadian families to plan
for the future.
But we do know a few things. The Canadian economy started the year in good
shape. Five years after the pandemic hit, we have come through an
unprecedented global crisis and restored economic growth and low inflation.
Interest rates have come down substantially. Because of that, we are in a better
position to confront the risks ahead.
Monetary policy cannot offset the effects of a trade war. What it can-and must-
do is ensure that higher prices from a trade conflict do not become ongoing
inflation. We are committed to maintaining price stability over time. There should
be no uncertainty about that.
Thank you. | - Current Economic Situation: Inflation in Canada has reached the Bank of Canada's target of 2%, with a soft landing achieved. Recent rate cuts have boosted household spending and economic growth, reducing unemployment.
- New Economic Crisis: Threats of US tariffs on Canadian exports have increased uncertainty sharply, impacting economic stability. The tariffs could severely affect various sectors and regional economies across Canada.
- Tariff Impact on Key Sectors:
- Energy: Alberta's energy industry faces risks from a 10% tariff, threatening profits and leading to potential declines in investment and employment.
- Agriculture: Uncertainty around tariffs and low grain prices pressure Canadian and US farmers, impacting cross-border supply chains and investments.
- Steel and Aluminum: Ontario and Quebec face disruptions from 25% US tariffs, raising production costs and influencing output.
- Pervasive Uncertainty: The unpredictability of US trade policy has affected consumer confidence and business investment plans in both Canada and the US.
- Impact on Monetary Policy:
- The Bank of Canada focuses on maintaining the 2% inflation target to prevent tariffs from leading to sustained inflation.
- Monitoring and analyzing tariff impacts across industries and regions, using updated economic models and gathering regional intelligence.
- Flexible policy approach to navigate pervasive uncertainty, minimizing risks of ineffective or counterproductive monetary actions.
- Business and Consumer Sentiment: Surveys indicate increased financial insecurity and intended cutbacks on spending, affecting investment outlooks and pricing strategies.
- Need for Policy Adaptability: Given high uncertainty, monetary policy must be flexible and adaptable, focusing on minimizing the risks and supporting broad economic outcomes rather than specific forecasts.
- Conclusion: Monetary policy can't mitigate trade war effects but ensures price stability, maintaining confidence in low inflation while addressing economic challenges. | Tiff Macklem | Bank of Canada | CA | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324g.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Speech by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Brussels, 20 March 2025. | Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and
Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Speech by Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the
Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European
Parliament, Brussels, 20 March 2025.
* * *
Charts accompanying the speech
It is a pleasure to be back in Brussels for our regular exchange.
Since we last met in December, the new US administration has taken office and
embarked on a new course in domestic and foreign policy. This has far-reaching
implications for the global economic and political landscape, and it forces Europe to
address both long-standing and new challenges in trade, economic competitiveness
and defence. It is clear that the world is not waiting for us.
In this context, your chosen topic of trade policies is pertinent and extremely timely.
However, before we discuss that topic in more detail, let me start by updating you on
the euro area economic outlook and the ECB's monetary policy stance.
The outlook for the euro area
In 2024 the euro area economy recovered despite many headwinds. Euro area GDP
grew by 0.9% on average, about twice as much as it did in 2023. Growth slowed in the
fourth quarter of 2024, however, and the first months of this year have seen a
continuation of many of last year's underlying patterns. Manufacturing is still
contracting, although survey indicators are improving. High domestic and global policy
uncertainty is holding back investment, and competitiveness challenges are weighing
on exports. At the same time, services remain resilient. Moreover, rising household
incomes and a robust labour market are supporting a gradual pick-up in consumption.
Heightened uncertainty is likely to dampen investment and exports more than
previously anticipated. However, growth is expected to be supported by higher incomes
and lower borrowing costs. Additionally, exports should benefit from rising global
demand, though this remains contingent on developments in international trade
policies. The latest ECB staff projections expect the economy to grow by 0.9% in 2025,
1
1.2% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. These estimates are subject to considerable
uncertainty, also owing to the trade policy environment, which I will discuss in the
second part of my statement.
Turning to price developments, the disinflation process is well on track. Headline
inflation decreased from 2.5% in January to 2.3% in February, mainly on account of a
drop in energy inflation. Core inflation - excluding energy and food - also declined
slightly from 2.7% in January to 2.6% in February, reflecting lower services inflation.
Domestic inflation edged down in February but remains high, as wages and services
prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge.
Nominal wage growth moderated over the course of 2024. It is expected to continue
decelerating in the coming months as real wages have caught up with levels seen
before the surge in inflation, leading to fewer demands for inflation compensation.
The ECB staff projections see inflation moderating slightly in the coming months and
then hovering around our 2% target as of the first quarter of 2026. Headline inflation is
expected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.
The ECB's monetary policy stance
Let me now turn to our monetary policy stance.
Earlier this month we lowered our key interest rates by another 25 basis points. Inflation
is developing broadly as expected, with most measures of underlying inflation
suggesting that inflation will settle at around our 2% medium-term target on a sustained
basis.
The deposit facility rate now stands at 2.50% - 150 basis points below the 2024 peak.
Our monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive. New borrowing is
becoming less expensive for firms and households, while loan growth is picking up. At
the same time, past interest rate hikes are still being transmitted to the stock of loans,
and lending remains subdued overall.
We are determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at our 2%
mediumterm target. Especially in current conditions of rising uncertainty, we will follow a
datadependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary
policy stance. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
The impact of a shift in US trade policies
Let me now turn to the second topic of this hearing - the impact of the shift in US trade
policies on the euro area.
The new US administration is changing direction in several policy areas, with trade
being a focal point. As a result, uncertainty about the future path of trade policy has
soared to exceptionally high levels.
In our interconnected world, increased trade frictions are detrimental to global growth
2
and welfare. They raise costs, disrupt production and often lead to an adjustment of
3
supply chains. This also encourages "tit-for-tat" retaliatory policies, further undermining
the benefits of free trade.
The euro area, which is very open to trade and deeply integrated into global supply
chains, especially with the United States, is particularly exposed to shifts in trade
policies.4
As regards the impact of specific trade measures, the situation is of course still
evolving, and any estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. That said, ECB
analysis suggests that a US tariff of 25% on imports from Europe would lower euro area
growth by about 0.3 percentage points in the first year. A European response in the
form of raising tariffs on US imports would further increase this to about half a
percentage point. The brunt of the impact on economic growth would concentrate
around the first year after the rise in tariffs; it would then diminish over time, however
leaving a persistent negative effect on the level of output.
In such a scenario, the inflation outlook would become significantly more uncertain. In
the near term, EU retaliatory measures and a weaker euro exchange rate - resulting
from lower US demand for European products - could lift inflation by around half a
percentage point. The effect would ease in the medium term due to lower economic
activity dampening inflationary pressures.
Let me stress again that these estimates are subject to very high uncertainty given that
the impact of tariff increases may be non-linear, for instance due to a significant
reconfiguration of global supply chains. Of course, the high level of policy uncertainty
requires us to remain vigilant and ready to act to protect price stability.
Crucially, the answer to the current shift in US trade policies should be more, not less,
trade integration, both with trade partners around the globe and within the EU. Trade
integration, including free trade agreements, has been a driver of economic prosperity
and can protect against unilateral trade measures. In fact, ECB analysis indicates that
closer integration with the rest of the world could more than offset losses incurred from
unilateral tariffs, including retaliation. In such a scenario only countries engaging in
isolationist policies stand to lose. It is therefore important that the EU remains open to
trade, and swiftly finalising recent trade agreements with other international partners
would be a powerful signal.
We must also use these developments as a catalyst for deepening trade between EU
Member States. The Single Market is estimated to have added between 12% and 22%
5
to long-run EU GDP in its first 30 years, and the level of trade between Member States
has doubled since its creation.6
A deeper Single Market is crucial for reducing trade barriers within Europe and creating
the scale necessary for firms to thrive. In addition, the more we exploit our own market,
the more resilient Europe is to the impact of global fragmentation and external shocks
more generally. With its Competitiveness Compass, the European Commission has put
forward a concrete roadmap that should be urgently implemented. In this context, the
plan for the savings and investment union presented yesterday is another crucial step.
By enhancing our strategic autonomy and increasing our economic clout, Europe
negotiates with trade partners from a position of greater strength - strength that we can
only gain collectively.
At the ECB, we will continue to carefully monitor global trade developments and take
their impact into account in our monetary policy deliberations. In the current
environment, it is important that we anticipate and assess implications of potential trade
7
policy changes. Careful analysis and communication are key, and we are exploring
both aspects further as part of our ongoing strategy assessment.
Conclusion
To conclude - in today's turbulent environment, only a united Europe is a stronger
Europe.
Jean Monnet once said "make men - and might I also add women - work together;
show them that, beyond their differences and geographical boundaries, there lies a
common interest".
This common interest is the prosperity of people in the EU. To achieve it, we must
continue to uphold free trade, and we must strengthen our union.
The Single Market enables this, as it can contain the impact of global trade
fragmentation. Let us continue to strengthen this precious tool and forge our own
destiny in the interest of all Europeans.
Thank you for your attention. I now look forward to your questions.
1
Tariffs that were already in effect when the March 2025 ECB staff projections were
finalised (on 19 February 2025) were included in the baseline projections - namely the
first batch of bilateral tariffs between the United States and China. Other tariffs that
were not yet in place at the cut-off date and those that had been postponed or had only
recently been announced were not included in the baseline projections.
2
See Attinasi, M.G. et al. (2024), "Navigating a fragmenting global trading system:
insights for central banks ", Occasional Paper Series, No 365, ECB; and Gunnella, V.
and Quaglietti, L. (2019), "The economic implications of rising protectionism: a euro
area and global perspective ", Economic Bulletin , Issue 3, ECB.
3
See Attinasi, M.G. et al. (2023), "Global production and supply chain risks: insights
from a survey of leading companies ", Economic Bulletin , Issue 7, ECB.
4
See ECB Working Group on Global Value Chains (2019), "The impact of global value
chains on the euro area economy ", Occasional Paper Series , No 221, ECB, April.
5
See Lehtimäki, J. and Sondermann, D. (2020), "Baldwin vs. Cecchini revisited: the
growth impact of the European Single Market ", Working Paper Series, No 2392, ECB,
April.
6
See European Commission (2023) "Communication from the Commission to the
European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and
the Committee of the Regions: The Single Market at 30 ",16 March.
7
For a discussion of monetary policy in an uncertain environment, see Lagarde, C.
(2025), " A robust strategy for a new era ", speech at the 25th ECB and Its Watchers
conference organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe
University Frankfurt, 12 March. | - Euro area economic outlook shows moderate growth, with GDP growth expected at 0.9% in 2025, increasing slightly in the following years.
- Disinflation is progressing, with headline inflation decreasing slightly; core inflation remains elevated but is gradually declining.
- ECB's monetary policy stance is becoming less restrictive with a recent interest rate cut, aiming to stabilize inflation around the 2% target.
- The impact of US trade policy shifts creates significant uncertainty, with potential negative effects on euro area growth and inflation.
- A US tariff on European imports could significantly lower euro area growth, while EU retaliatory tariffs could further exacerbate this impact.
- Despite the challenges, trade integration both globally and within the EU is emphasized as a crucial response to mitigate negative effects of protectionism.
- The Single Market is highlighted as a key tool for resilience, with ongoing initiatives aimed at deepening economic integration within the EU.
- ECB remains vigilant in monitoring global trade developments and prepared to adjust policy based on economic conditions and policy changes.
- The ECB calls for unity and strategic autonomy within Europe to negotiate from a position of strength in international trade matters. | Christine Lagarde | European Central Bank | EU | President | President | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324m.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Richard Byles: Lessons from a small, open, developing, inflation targeter | Speech by Mr Richard Byles, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, at the Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference "Managing the post-COVID inflation shock", Kingston, 20 March 2025. | Richard Byles: Lessons from a small, open, developing, inflation
targeter
Speech by Mr Richard Byles, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, at the
Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference "Managing the post-COVID inflation shock",
Kingston, 20 March 2025.
* * *
Presentation accompanying the speech
Introduction
SLIDE 1
Good [afternoon]. Thank you for inviting me to participate in this forum. I will speak on
Jamaica's experience in managing the post-COVID-19/Russia-Ukraine inflation shocks.
This experience may be a useful case study among Latin America and Caribbean
(LAC) economies and could offer some insights for our ongoing enquiry into appropriate
macroeconomic policy making.
SLIDE 2
My basic conclusion is that, in response to the twin shocks, Jamaica performed well
relative to other LAC countries. In the context of appropriate fiscal and monetary policy
responses, Jamaica's GDP rebounded to its pre-pandemic level at a speed consistent
with the recovery of its peers. Inflation spiked but returned to target in short order while
inflation expectations, although rising temporarily, returned fairly quickly to normal
levels. The exchange rate remained relatively stable and our foreign reserves increased.
SLIDE 3
Against this background, my presentation will briefly describe the main impacts of the
global shocks on the Jamaican economy and our policy responses. I will then outline
the evolution of Jamaica's macroeconomic data after the shocks and in the context of
our policy responses, before briefly outlining the key lessons learnt.
SLIDE 4
Jamaica's Economic Context
Let me start by providing you with a brief tour of the Jamaican economy. While large
relative to other Caribbean states, Jamaica is a geographically small country. We also
have a very small population of 2.8 million with a per-capita GDP of approximately
US$6,800.
SLIDE 5
While Jamaica boasts a somewhat diversified economy comprising tourism, agriculture
and light manufacturing, the Island is very open and is heavily reliant on tourism. The
contribution of tourism to Jamaica's economic activity is somewhat less than that for
other service-based states in the Caribbean, but the sector is a major source of income
for the economy when compared with the LAC bloc as a whole.
SLIDE 6
Remittances require a special note as these flows play an outsized role in the Jamaican
economy. As a share of GDP, remittances to Jamaica is the 3rd highest in the LAC
region and, by the same measure, is the 10th largest of 236 countries. You can
therefore appreciate any shocks to the global economy that affects remittances is
expected to have a large impact on consumption and welfare, Jamaica's balance of
payments, growth, fiscal dynamics and inflation.
SLIDE 7
A survey of the economy prior to the pandemic, highlights that macroeconomic
conditions in Jamaica were strong. In 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
assessed the country as having "entrenched" stability-". The central government's
debtto-GDP ratio at end FY2019/20 was close to 95 per cent, coming from a peak of 146
per cent in FY2012/13. To achieve this deleveraging, the fiscal authorities had
maintained primary surpluses above 7.0 per cent for 7 consecutive years.
By 2019, inflation had also trended downward towards the lower end of the central
bank's 4 to 6 per cent target range. Gross reserves were healthy and above the ARA
metric. Jamaica's external accounts had also improved significantly, with an average
current account-to-GDP deficit of -1.9 per cent between 2015 and 2019 relative to an
average of -9.6 per cent between 2010 and 2014.
SLIDE 8
The Twin Shocks: The Pandemic/War
In March 2020, Jamaica confirmed its first case of COVID-19. Like many other
countries, our initial reactions included closing our borders and enforcing
work-fromhome orders, which effectively halted tourism and reshaped workplace practices for
almost two years. These measures, however, proved to be effective in controlling
outbreaks.
With the phased easing of containment measures, a global recovery gained momentum
in late 2021. This led to a combination of resurging demand and constrained supply
conditions, triggering inflation pressures.
As we all know, the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, which began in February 2022, further
exacerbated supply chains disruptions, resulting in yet higher international commodity
prices and further inflationary pressures.
SLIDE 9
The curtailment in economic activity during the pandemic resulted in a contraction in
GDP for Jamaica of 10.0 per cent for 2020. This was somewhat lower than our
Caribbean counterparts, and broadly consistent with the average contraction recorded
for the LAC. Not surprisingly, the significant fall in Jamaica's output was led by a
considerable fallout in the Tourism sector and its related industries. A significant decline
of 65.0 per cent tourism-related foreign exchange earnings also adversely affected the
stability of Jamaica's foreign exchange market.
SLIDE 10
It is in this context that depreciation in the exchange rate accelerated in 2020.
Nevertheless, of the countries that have floating exchange rate regimes in the LAC,
only Costa Rica and Peru fared better than Jamaica by this metric for that year. As we
will recall, the Brazilian currency, an outlier benchmark, lost more than 30% of its value
during the year. The relative performance of the Jamaican currency reflected the impact
of our policy response, but I will return to this issue later.
SLIDE 11
Turning to the CPI, for the first time in several years, inflation in 2021 reached
doubledigit levels in the context of the twin shocks. The combination of sharper exchange rate
depreciation, rising commodity prices and increases in inflation expectations, among
other things, contributed to accelerated inflationary pressures. Inflation initially remained
within BOJ's target range in 2020 but exceeded it between March 2021 and March
2024.
Although the acceleration in inflation was substantial, Jamaica fared better than our
regional counterparts, regardless of whether or not they practised inflation-targeting.
SLIDE 12
Despite the adverse impacts on key macro-economic variables, Jamaica's external
accounts were, surprisingly, not severely impacted. For 2020, the current account
recorded a deficit of - 1.1 per cent of GDP, an improvement from the -1.9 per cent
deficit the previous year. This was due mainly to a fall in imports (given the decline in
economic activity) and a stronger than expected rise in remittance inflows that offset the
fall in tourism receipts. Remittance inflows defied expectations and increased by almost
30.0 per cent for the year. This phenomenon has not been fully explained but, to the
extent that it was also evident in other countries such Mexico, Guatemala and El
Salvador, it points to the impact the stimulus packages in the USA and other advanced
economies, and less to factors such as changes in the behaviour of the remitters to
Jamaica.
SLIDE 13
Finally, although the financial sector faced challenges in 2020, the system remained
sound and liquid. Admittedly, there was some deterioration in the sector's profitability
and asset quality as a result of the pandemic. Credit to households also declined
sharply. Despite this, the capital adequacy ratios of the system remained well above
regulatory requirements throughout the period, reflecting the sector's resilience and the
impact of solid macro-prudential oversight and intervention.
SLIDE 14
Let me turn to discussing our policy interventions.
Policy Response
SLIDE 15
Fiscal Policy
While demonstrating a strong commitment to fiscal discipline, Jamaica's fiscal response
was measured, temporary and targeted towards supporting the most affected segments
of the population. Stimulus packages were introduced by the Government throughout
the pandemic years, which cumulatively amounted to 1.3 per cent of GDP. [These
included one-off monetary transfers to households and firms, one-off salary
compensation to workers, targeted household subsidies and reduction or deferral of
selected taxes.]
Notably, Jamaica's stimulus package was more restrained than those of its Caribbean
peers and below the regional average.
It also important to note that the country's public debt reduction path, which, before the
crises, aimed to lower debt to 60.0 per cent of GDP or less by the end of FY2025/26,
was temporarily disturbed by them. To navigate the challenges, the government sought
a temporary suspension and amendment of Jamaica's fiscal rules.
SLIDE 16
Monetary Policy Response and Inflation Control
In relation to monetary policy, the Bank responded differently during the Covid-19 shock
relative to the second shock brought on by the war.
During the first phase of the shock, that is between 2020 and early 2021, the policy rate
was held at a historic low of 0.50 per cent to support economic recovery. In real terms,
this was a very negative rate. The central bank also provided USD liquidity of over 7 per
cent of GDP and JMD liquidity amounting to 4 per cent of GDP to the financial sector
during the shock, while implementing other macro-prudential measures to ensure
banking sector stability.
SLIDE 17
At the start of the second phase of the shock, BOJ was granted the formal status of
inflation targeter. However, the staff of the Bank had been practising inflation targeting
for years before this formal designation and had developed several worst-case
scenarios on the impact of the outbreak by this time. The staff was therefore able to
quickly identify the tidal wave of food-price inflation coming through to us and advised
the newly-formed MPC of the need to tighten monetary policy so as to anchor inflation
expectations and stem any second-round effects that would have arisen from the shock.
The BOJ therefore employed a three-pronged approach by:
Deploying open market operations more aggressively to maintain tight Jamaica
liquidity conditions,
Gradually increasing the policy interest rate by 650 basis points (bps) between
October 2021 and November 2022; and
Engendering greater stability in the foreign exchange market through foreign
exchange intervention and adjustments to the Net Open Position limits.
This policy stance influenced the conduct of the Bank's open-market operations
between 2022 and 2024. The Bank's 30-Day certificates of deposit and special longer
dated instruments were used to tighten liquidity. During the 2022, a net absorption
equivalent to 1.6 per cent of GDP (JMD$41.6 billion) via this medium was done, much
higher than the 0.1 per cent of GDP (or JMD$2.1 billion) net absorbed in 2021.
Continuing this stance in 2023, the Bank net absorbed the equivalent of 1.5 per cent
(JMD$46.3 billion).
A major issue for Jamaica during the tightening cycle was the weakness in the credit
channel of the monetary transmission mechanism. During this period, the Bank
observed a low pass-through of its policy actions to DTIs lending and deposit rates.
This weakness primarily resulted from a lack of competition in the banking sector, given
the domination of the system by a few financial institutions. The three-pronged
approach was therefore deemed critical to taming inflation.
SLIDE 18
With, perhaps, the exception of Mexico, Brazil and New Zealand, to name a few, this
change in monetary policy stance had not yet been contemplated by some of the major
central banks. Brazil stands out as the most proactive in the region, tightening as early
as four quarters before March 2020. The key issue for Bank of Jamaica at the time was
to get ahead of inflation expectations and the second-round effects of the shock.
The start of Jamaica's tightening phase was therefore sooner than many
inflationtargeting countries within the Latin American and Caribbean region.
SLIDE 19
Strategic market interventions ensured that the exchange rate remained stable during
both phases of the crises. By end-2023, the annual depreciation in the exchange rate
was contained at 0.5 per cent, a large improvement compared to the spike in 2020.
Jamaica therefore recorded a moderate nominal depreciation of its currency of just 17
per cent over the 5-year period from 2019 to 2024, substantially lower than the
experience of Chile and Brazil. Also, compared to its LAC counterparts with floating
exchange rate regimes, Jamaica exhibited one of the lowest levels of exchange rate
volatility between 2020 and 2024. This stability was underpinned by the BOJ's
approach to liquidity management and foreign exchange intervention, which ultimately
reinforced the credibility of Jamaica's monetary policy framework to meet the inflation
targeting objectives. It also highlights the effectiveness of the BOJ's strategic
interventions in containing depreciation pressures, relative to other regional economies.
SLIDE 20
I will now briefly summarise the impact on the economy of the monetary and fiscal
responses.
SLIDE 21
The reopening of the ports and the cessation of lock-down activities drove a recovery in
GDP to pre-pandemic levels in just under two years. This pace of recovery was
generally consistent with that of the LAC countries.
SLIDE 22
Given the lower revenue flows caused by the contraction in GDP, along with increased
expenditure for Covid-19 related activities, the central government's fiscal balance fell
from a surplus of 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2019 to a deficit of 3.8 per cent of GDP in
2020. This was the first deficit since 2016 and the largest since 2012. The country's
debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 108.7 per cent in 2020 from 94.7 per cent in 2019,
largely the consequence of the fall in nominal GDP for the year. Although this change in
debt-to-GDP was broadly in line with the LAC average, the fiscal deficit was significantly
below the regional average and one of the lowest in the region.
The effects of the pandemic on the debt stock were, however, temporary. Jamaica
reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio by 40 percentage points, from 108.7 per cent in 2020 to
approximately 69 per cent by 2024. Prudent fiscal management, along with the rebound
in nominal GDP, caused the debt ratio to revert sharply and with one exception, faster
than our peers.
SLIDE 23
Inflation also returned to BOJ's target range by early 2024, a faster pace than some in
the LAC. This was driven in large part by the fall in commodity prices and the lagged
impact of the Bank's relatively tight monetary policy stance (including its foreign
exchange market interventions).
SLIDE 24
Jamaica's current account also improved noticeably to a surplus of 3.1 per cent of GDP
for FY2023/24, due in large part to a sharp rebound in tourism and continued high
levels of remittances. This surplus, in addition to inflows from the IMF and
Government's inflows contributed to the steady accumulation of reserves. Foreign
exchange reserves consequently increased by 34 per cent between 2019 and 2023,
outperforming some regional counterparts.
SLIDE 25
Lessons Learned and Policy Takeaways
I will now conclude by offering some key lessons and policy takeaways.
The overarching lessons from Jamaica's experience are that
1. Buffers are crucial in our ability to respond to shocks;
2. Institutions matter;
3. Strong and early monetary policy action are important, particularly for new
inflation targeters;
4.
4. Credible and transparent FXI frameworks are necessary if the MTM is weak and
there is a large shock and, finally
5. Remittances are clearly countercyclical.
Jamaica's ability to respond to shocks through fiscal expenditure and foreign exchange
market intervention emphasised the importance of maintaining buffers.
On the point of strong policy institutions, Jamaica over a number of years have made
steady progress in building them out. By granting the central bank policy autonomy, the
government allowed it to take swift, decisive, potentially painful and thus politically
unsavoury policy measures, just when the economy needed them. More recently, the
GOJ has established a fiscal commission to act as a watch dog over fiscal policy
determination and implementation. Institutions mattered for Jamaica during the crises
and they will work towards continued stability in the future.
The strong and resolute policy interventions of the BOJ, as a new inflation targeting
central bank, served to improve the credibility of Jamaica's the monetary regime and
will help in the future to better anchor inflation expectations. Resolute upward
adjustments in the policy rate along with aggressive liquidity tightening played a major
complementary role in this strategy.
Looking in the rear-view mirror, BOJ's FX interventions strategy became the anchor for
monetary policy in a context where the exchange rate channel of the monetary
transmission mechanism is strong, but the credit channel is weak. The Bank, however,
has committed significant resources and time to improving its tools and the credit
channel of the MTM, with a view to arming itself for future inflation battles. What we are
doing in this area may be the topic for an entirely different presentation.
A final lesson was seen in the resilience of remittances, underscoring their
countercyclical nature.
SLIDE 26
Closing
Notwithstanding all the accomplishments of the central bank as well as the fiscal
authorities, challenges still abound. We recognise the necessity to tackle the
weaknesses in the monetary transmission mechanism. We also recognise that
Jamaica's high level of openness will continue to expose us to external shocks and that,
along with our exposure to climate change risk, imply the need for us to maintain our
buffers and to build resilience.
The next challenge for the country therefore is to transition from the entrenched
macroeconomic stability that it now enjoys to a path of sustainable higher economic
growth.
Thank you. | - **Performance During Shocks**: Jamaica performed well compared to other LAC countries in managing post-COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine inflation shocks.
- **Economic Recovery**: Jamaica's GDP rebounded to pre-pandemic levels quickly, and inflation returned to target rapidly.
- **Policy Responses**: Effective fiscal and monetary responses, including temporary measures, anchored inflation expectations and stabilized the exchange rate.
- **Monetary Policy**: BOJ employed a three-pronged approach: aggressive open market operations, increased policy interest rates, and forex interventions to stabilize liquidity and currency.
- **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal response was measured and targeted, with stimulus packages equating to 1.3% of GDP, but more restrained than peers.
- **Institutional Strength**: Institutional development, such as granting BOJ policy autonomy, proved crucial in responding decisively to economic shocks.
- **Remittances**: Played a significant countercyclical role, increasing during the pandemic, which bolstered economic stability.
- **Debt Management**: Despite initial increases due to the pandemic, Jamaica's debt-to-GDP ratio decreased significantly by 2024 due to prudent fiscal management.
- **Lessons Learned**:
1. Importance of maintaining buffers.
2. Institutional strength supports effective policy action.
3. Early and decisive monetary tightening is crucial for new inflation targeters.
4. Credible FX intervention frameworks help manage large shocks.
5. Remittances are a stable countercyclical factor.
- **External Account Stability**: Despite challenges, Jamaica's current account improved, and forex reserves increased significantly.
- **Future Challenges**: Strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism and building resilience against external shocks and climate risks remain priorities.
- **Path Forward**: Focus on transitioning to a path of sustainable, higher economic growth amidst existing macroeconomic stability. | Richard Byles | Bank of Jamaica | JM | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324k.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Dimitar Radev: Bulgaria currently fulfils unconditionally all nominal convergence criteria | Speech by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the opening of the conference "Money growth: banking, investment, technology", organised by Capital newspaper, Sofia, 20 March 2025. | Dimitar Radev: Bulgaria currently fulfils unconditionally all nominal
convergence criteria
Speech by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, at the opening
of the conference "Money growth: banking, investment, technology", organised by
Capital newspaper, Sofia, 20 March 2025.
* * *
Dear colleagues and guests,
Thank you for inviting me to open today's conference. It is taking place at a particularly
dynamic and challenging moment for both the global and the Bulgarian economy. Such
forums are extremely useful for the exchange of analyses, opinions and ideas at a time
when the need to adapt economic processes to new realities is becoming increasingly
clear.
Let's start with the geopolitical context. In my opinion, at least for the last 35 years, it
has not been as important for the economic and financial, but also for the political
development of Bulgaria, as it is now.
The key words for today's geopolitical context are uncertainty and unpredictability about
what lies ahead or, as the President of the ECB very well put it these days, quoting Paul
Valéry: "The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be."
The obvious question is, what to do in such an environment? Politicians are facing it,
but not only them. It is not my job to give advice on what should be done on the political
front, at least not in my capacity. I shall therefore confine myself to one sentence: Active
participation in strengthening and developing the European project in today's
geopolitical context is the surest guarantee for Bulgaria's good prospects.
I will focus more on the economic and financial aspects.
Developments in Ukraine and the Middle East, the increasing trade conflicts between
leading economies and the process of geopolitical fragmentation, as well as the boom
in digital technology development are triggering significant structural transformations in
global supply chains with uncertain duration, depth and consequences.
These developments are already having a tangible impact on international trade,
leading to increased volatility in commodity prices and forcing a number of countries to
adapt their economic and, in particular, industrial policies to rising protectionism
worldwide. In pursuit of economic security, many economies are reviewing their
dependence on external suppliers and taking measures to localise critical industries,
restructuring their production chains.
These developments are likely to have an increasing impact on Europe, which remains
one of the most vulnerable economies in the context of global geopolitical uncertainties,
especially with regard to energy resources. For us, this vulnerability is an even more
serious risk factor, given that our country remains one of the most energy-intensive
economies in Europe. Breaking long-standing energy dependencies, soaring gas and
electricity prices and the need for accelerated energy transformation pose serious
challenges to European economies. Energy costs continue to be significantly higher
than in the US and some Asian economies, creating serious structural challenges for
the competitiveness of European industry.
In this complex global environment, Bulgaria's starting macroeconomic position is
actually not at all bad. In 2024, the country's real GDP grew by 2.8%, i.e. above
expectations, and according to the latest BNB forecast, economic growth will remain
stable on positive territory, standing at 2.5% this year and 3.0% in 2026. Growth will be
supported primarily by domestic demand in a context of historically very low
unemployment and the absence of macroeconomic imbalances.
The performance of our banking sector remains robust, with capital buffers, liquidity
coverage and profitability above the EU average.
Despite the deterioration of fiscal indicators in recent years, our country still has
manoeuvrability, both in terms of the fiscal space available and in terms of the
opportunities to restore the fiscal buffers exhausted by the recent budgets.
Last but not least, our country currently fulfils unconditionally all nominal convergence
criteria, including the price stability criterion, with which we have had problems in recent
years.
For a small and open economy like ours, which is highly integrated into global supply
chains, geopolitical developments also pose a number of risks, mostly related to:
a continued decline in foreign demand for Bulgarian goods and services,
especially in view of the deepening structural challenges faced by some of our
main euro area trading partners; and
increased fluctuations in the prices of key energy and non-energy raw materials,
which affect business production costs and household disposable income.
In an environment of such risks, it is essential that the economy is well prepared for
unexpected shocks affecting the aggregate supply of goods and services.
Macroeconomic preparations mainly consist of maintaining sufficient buffers in the
banking and fiscal sectors. On the one hand, the existence of such buffers would
contribute to cushioning the effect of materialisation of risks and, on the other hand, to
adapting to and potentially benefiting from changes in the global economy, such as the
restructuring of global production chains. A good example in this regard in recent years
is the relatively smooth transition of the Bulgarian economy through the COVID crisis.
The high levels of fiscal reserve and bank capitalisation maintained at that time allowed
our country to recover relatively quickly from the crisis and without the need for external
financial support.
In such an environment, it is extremely important to break the momentum of quantitative
and structural deterioration of our fiscal position and restore fiscal buffers. I will give the
following example. By the end of 2024, the fiscal reserve reached its historical low, both
as a percentage of GDP (4.7%) and as a percentage of total budgetary expenditure
under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (12.3%). For comparison, the average
values of these indicators for the last two decades amounted to 8.8% and 24.4%,
respectively. The consolidation of the fiscal stance will remain a serious medium-term
challenge against the objective need for higher public investment and military
expenditure.
Let me also say a few words about the role of the BNB. In this uncertain environment,
the BNB will continue to apply conservative supervisory and regulatory policies,
introducing preventive measures to ensure the resilience of the banking system. The
consistency and predictability of the policies we pursue are key to the confidence of the
banking sector, businesses and investors.
Our approach will continue to include:
maintaining high capital and liquidity buffers that ensure the resilience of the
banking system;
strict supervision of lending to avoid the accumulation of excessive risks on banks'
balance sheets; and
policy flexibility so that we can respond adequately to new challenges, including in
terms of anticipatory economic growth objectives.
In other words, we not only want to ensure stability, but also to create a predictable
environment in which economic actors can plan and invest with greater confidence.
Finally, of course, I will also touch on the subject of the country's accession to the euro
area.
This topic unites more strongly than before the current issues we are discussing from
geopolitics to economics and finance.
We have, indeed, one final step left. I am convinced that we are able to do it with dignity
and self-confidence. It is not by chance that I emphasised that at the moment our
country meets all the convergence criteria.
As a central bank, we are focused both on the successful implementation of this final
step and on our full readiness to work in the context of the shared monetary sovereignty
of the euro area. This includes two main groups of tasks.
The first relates to the operationalisation of the existing capacity to operate in the euro
area, including the performance of functions that we cannot perform in a currency board
environment. These functions relate both to the participation in defining the
Eurosystem's monetary policy, which required the building of strong analytical capacity,
and to the implementation of the common monetary policy at national level through its
main instruments, including the conduct of open market operations, the preparation of
conditions for participation and the technical provision of access for Bulgarian banks to
the ECB's standing facilities. In addition to our participation in the process of creating
and distributing the money supply, the BNB will also act as a lender of last resort,
providing extraordinary liquidity support to Bulgarian banks in case of need.
The second task is related to logistics and technical preparation of the process of
exchange and functioning of the banking system in the context of the euro area. What
has been done so far is truly unprecedented for the bank and the country in terms of
scale and technical complexity. It includes construction and renting of areas; supply of
machinery, equipment and materials; providing in practice a new fleet of armoured and
security vehicles; creation of a qualitatively new payment and IT infrastructure;
development and approval of transport schemes and security systems; full readiness to
mint Bulgarian euro coins and deliver the necessary euro banknotes; obtaining the
necessary licences and certificates; carrying out a large number of public
procurements. I am making this incomplete enumeration to underline two things: first
that we have been working hard on this topic and not since yesterday or today; and
second, that the BNB and the banking sector are very ready to join and operate within a
euro area context.
Allow me to finish with a few conclusions:
First, geopolitical uncertainty is one of the main risks to the country's economy
and finances and requires the maintenance of buffers in the banking and fiscal
spheres and readiness to implement adaptive policies;
Second, the banking sector is well prepared to face the risks stemming from the
external macroeconomic environment and can play an important role in the
materialisation of potential development opportunities for key sectors of the
economy by channelling credit resources to them;
Third, unlike the banking sector, public finances need to restore fiscal buffers in
the medium term while preserving the long-term sustainability of government debt;
and
Fourth, joining the euro area has enormous potential to become a catalyst for the
country to navigate successfully in the face of global uncertainty. And this
potential needs to be exploited.
Thank you for your attention and I wish you interesting and fruitful discussions! | - Bulgaria currently fulfills all nominal convergence criteria, including price stability.
- Geopolitical uncertainty is a significant risk, necessitating buffers in banking and fiscal sectors.
- Bulgaria's macroeconomic position is stable, with GDP growth projected to remain positive.
- The banking sector is robust with high capital and liquidity buffers, above EU averages.
- Despite fiscal deterioration, Bulgaria has fiscal space and flexibility to restore buffers.
- Energy costs pose structural challenges for European competitiveness and Bulgaria's energy-intensive economy.
- Maintaining buffers helps cushion against global supply shocks and supports economic adaptation.
- The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) will maintain conservative supervisory policies to ensure banking stability.
- Bulgaria's potential euro area accession is critical, with ongoing logistical and technical preparations.
- Public finances require restoration of fiscal buffers while ensuring long-term debt sustainability.
- The euro area entry offers potential as a catalyst for navigating global uncertainties successfully. | Dimitar Radev | Bulgarian National Bank | BG | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324i.htm | 2025-03-20T00:00:00 | Eli M Remolona: Going digital - changing the digital finance narrative | Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona, Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank of the Philippines), at the 4th Digital Financial Inclusion Awards, Manila, 20 March 2025. | Eli M Remolona: Going digital - changing the digital finance narrative
Speech by Mr Eli M Remolona, Jr, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the
central bank of the Philippines), at the 4th Digital Financial Inclusion Awards, Manila, 20
March 2025.
* * *
Introduction
Good afternoon, everyone. Good afternoon, [Microfinance Council of the Philippines,
Inc. Chairperson] Gilbert [Maramba]. Good afternoon, [Citi Philippines CEO] Paul
[Favila]. Good afternoon, Teodoro [Lamang Jr.]. Thank you for your inspiring testimony.
Thank you all for joining us in this media launch for the Digital Financial Inclusion
Awards. It is something that we do every year that recognized microentrepreneurs
leading the way in digital finance.
Shift in focus
Going digital is not always easy. Part of the challenge is what psychologists Amos
Tversky and Daniel Kahneman described as the availability bias, which is our tendency
to focus more on dramatic events rather than the common ones.
In digitalization, we hear a lot about online fraud and scams because they tend to be
dramatic events. We do not talk about the boring benefits, faster transactions, better
financial access, and new opportunities.
This makes small businessowners hesitant, "Ang hirap pumasok sa digital" or "Baka
maloko pa kami d'yan." While these concerns are valid, they should not hold us back.
This is why we are here. To help shift the focus to the real success stories. The BSP
and its partner agencies are working to make the digital landscape more secure,
simpler, and more accessible.
First is safer digital space. The Anti-Financial Account Scamming Act or AFASA was
actually enacted to fight fake accounts, fraud, and scams. The implementing rules and
regulations are in the works.
Second is simpler digital banking. The QRPh and the new Standard Business Loan
Application Form or SBLAF streamlined payments and credit application. Launched last
December, the SBLAF is short, user-friendly, and fully digital.
Third, is broader digital access. The moratorium on digital banking license application
was lifted, which means more digital banks helping small businesses in opening
accounts, applying for loans, and transacting seamlessly.
With these measures, digital finance is becoming more secure, more efficient, and more
inclusive. The entrepreneurs we are honoring here are proof of that.
Take Shanie Lou, who scaled her baking business through social media platforms and
e-wallets. Or Ligaya, who used e-commerce to expand the market for her hand-woven
bags.
Closing
To our friends in the media, we ask you to share these stories and help shift the
narrative. Let us show every Juan and Maria that digital finance is not something to
fearit is something to embrace.
Maraming salamat po at mabuhay tayong lahat! | - Emphasizes the need to shift focus from digital fraud and scams to the benefits of digital finance like faster transactions, better access, and new opportunities.
- Highlights initiatives to make the digital financial landscape safer, citing the Anti-Financial Account Scamming Act being enacted to combat fraud.
- Discusses the simplification of digital banking through innovations like QRPh and the Standard Business Loan Application Form (SBLAF) which streamlines processes.
- Notes the lifting of the moratorium on digital banking licenses, allowing more digital banks to support small businesses with account openings and loans.
- Provides examples of microentrepreneurs who successfully leveraged digital platforms to grow their businesses, promoting digital finance as beneficial and inclusive.
- Encourages media to share stories of digital finance success to change public perception and promote adoption. | Eli M Remolona | Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas | PH | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250401f.htm | 2025-03-21T00:00:00 | Ahmet Ismaili: Navigating the digital transformation of the financial sector | Speech by Mr Ahmet Ismaili, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo, at the Conference "Navigating the digital transformation of the financial sector", organised by ProCredit Kosovo, Prishtina, 21 March 2025. | Ahmet Ismaili: Navigating the digital transformation of the financial
sector
Speech by Mr Ahmet Ismaili, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo,
at the Conference "Navigating the digital transformation of the financial sector",
organised by ProCredit Kosovo, Prishtina, 21 March 2025.
* * *
Dear Mr. Paçarada
Dear Ms. Krenare Sogojeva Dërmaku
Dear Mr. Zdravko Vuki,
Representatives of public institutions
Esteemed representatives of international organizations
Distinguished colleagues, ladies and gentlemen
It's my pleasure to great all of you on behalf of the Central Bank of Kosovo as we
discuss a crucial topic-the digital transformation of our financial sector. This
transformation is at our focus as the regulator, and we are dedicated towards a more
modern, inclusive, as well as safe and secure financial system.
The advancement of digitalization is not just a global trend; it is a key objective of the
CBK's Strategic Plan. Our aim is to foster digital finance in a way that benefits all
sectors of society, promotes financial inclusion, and drives economic growth. However,
we are fully aware that the future of financial services lies in digital transformation,
where every individual and business in Kosovo can easily access and benefit from
digital financial services, which will entail strengthening of data protection, cybersecurity
and fraud prevention.
As part of this ongoing journey, I would like to share the key initiatives we are
undertaking as regulator to move Kosovo's financial sector forward in the digital age
while maintaining safety and stability of our financial system.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo over the years has put in place critical
regulations that support digitalization, including regulations for licensing and supervising
payment service
providers, including fintech companies, and ensuring that new payment providers have
access to the market. We have also enacted several key regulations that foster the
development of digital financial services, improving the security and efficiency of digital
transactions and protection of users of electronic payment instruments. In addition to
the recently approved laws for the financial sector, these regulations are laying a robust
framework for Kosovo's digital financial sector, helping to integrate digital finance with
global best practices.
One of the most significant efforts in Kosovo's finance transformation is our efforts to
align and become part of SEPA as well as adopt an instant payment system. SEPA's
adoption will be a game-changer for Kosovo's payment system, ensuring that our
financial infrastructure meets EU standards and enhances the efficiency of both
domestic and cross-border transactions.
As part of this alignment, we are adopting best practices in digital banking, including
strong consumer authentication, cybersecurity measures, and the implementation of
electronic signatures. These steps are essential for creating a secure and efficient
financial ecosystem that can seamlessly integrate into the broader EU market.
Additionally, the alignment with SEPA will facilitate faster integration of people and
systems within the EU.
The Central Bank of Kosovo is proud to be collaborating with the International Finance
Corporation (IFC) to accelerate the development of digital financial services in Kosovo.
With the support of the Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the CBK and
IFC are working together in driving infrastructure improvements, promoting open
banking initiatives, through establishing an Innovation Hub for enabling the launching of
new services and products in a controlled environment while preserving the potential
risks, as well as through capacity building and expertise in digital financial services.
We have already made tangible progress in advancing digitalization at the CBK. Some
of the initiatives we are implementing include: Preparing for SEPA by introducing
provisions that regulate Open Banking (Open API), Adopting a New Regulation on
Technical Standards for Strong Consumer Authentication, ensuring security and
consumer confidence in digital transactions, Standardizing QR code procedures for
payments, which simplifies and secures digital transactions for both consumers and
businesses.
As part of our ongoing efforts to support digitalization in the financial sector, the Central
Bank of Kosovo, in collaboration with the Agency for Information Society (ASHI), has
made significant progress in improving public access to services.
We have integrated two services-the Register of Accounts (RLLB) and the Credit
Registry of Kosovo (CRK)-into the national eKosova platform. This integration, allows
citizens to easily verify their accounts with financial institutions and access their
individual credit reports directly through the platform, without needing to make physical
requests to the CBK.
In addition, we are working with the Agency for Information Society and Civil Register
Agency with the support from the IFC, in enabling electronic verifications of IDs and
addresses for bank clients directly through e-Kosova platform. All these efforts, should
contribute in creating an environment that enables digital transformation and advances
digital financial services.
We will closely cooperate with the Information and Privacy Agency, Ministry of Interior
Affairs, Kosovo Banking Association and other institutions, to make sure that we jointly
contribute to this process in efficient and secure implementation.
The road ahead is both exciting and challenging. The digital transformation of the
financial sector is not just about technology - it is about creating a financial system that
is more accessible, inclusive, and secure for all. This includes extensive collaboration
and engagements in financial education in order to prepare the users of new digital
financial services with the risks they pose, and against financial fraud that might
potentially come with increased digitalization. Through our regulatory framework,
partnerships with international organizations, and ongoing capacity building, the Central
Bank of Kosovo is committed to supporting a digital future and the protection of
consumers along with safe usage of data, that benefits everyone in Kosovo.
In conclusion, the Central Bank of Kosovo is fully committed to supporting digital
transformation, with digitalization at the core of its vision. We are not just adapting to
the digital age, but actively shaping a future driven by innovation. By supporting the
market in its digital journey, we are creating a dynamic financial ecosystem that will
drive Kosovo's long-term economic growth. Together, we are building a foundation of
progress, resilience, and opportunity for future generations.
Thank you. | - The digital transformation of the financial sector is a top priority for the Central Bank of Kosovo (CBK), aiming for a modern, inclusive, and secure financial system.
- Digitalization is a key objective of the CBK’s Strategic Plan to foster financial inclusion, economic growth, and the accessibility of financial services.
- Critical regulations have been put in place for licensing, supervising payment service providers, and fostering digital financial services with global best practices.
- Alignment with SEPA and the adoption of an instant payment system are key initiatives to enhance Kosovo's financial infrastructure to EU standards.
- Adopting best practices in digital banking, including strong consumer authentication, cybersecurity measures, and electronic signatures, will integrate Kosovo into the EU market.
- Collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and support from SECO are accelerating the development of digital financial services, infrastructure improvements, and open banking initiatives.
- The CBK has advanced digitalization by preparing for SEPA, introducing open banking regulations, adopting technical standards for strong consumer authentication, and standardizing QR code payment procedures.
- Integrating public services with the national eKosova platform enhances accessibility, allowing citizens to verify accounts and access credit reports digitally.
- Ongoing collaborations with the Information and Society Agency and Civil Register Agency aim to enable electronic verifications and strengthen digital infrastructure.
- Emphasizing the need for financial education to prepare users for digital financial services and mitigate risks such as financial fraud.
- Commitment to a digital future involves regulatory frameworks, partnerships with international organizations, and capacity building to support an inclusive, secure, and innovative financial system.
- The CBK is dedicated to driving Kosovo's long-term economic growth through digital transformation and creating opportunities for future generations. | Ahmet Ismaili | Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo | XK | Governor | Governor | [
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] | null |
https://www.bis.org/review/r250324j.htm | 2025-03-21T00:00:00 | Christodoulos Patsalides: Current landscape and future challenges | Welcoming speech by Mr Christodoulos Patsalides, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, at the Joint Conference on Cyprus Economy by the Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), Nicosia, 21 March 2025. | Christodoulos Patsalides: Current landscape and future challenges
Welcoming speech by Mr Christodoulos Patsalides, Governor of the Central Bank of
Cyprus, at the Joint Conference on Cyprus Economy by the Central Bank of Cyprus
(CBC) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), Nicosia, 21 March 2025.
* * *
Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed guests, colleagues,
It is a great pleasure to welcome you today to this conference, jointly organized by the
Central Bank of Cyprus and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). I extend my
sincere gratitude to our distinguished speakers and participants for joining us today to
engage in an important discussion on the structural transformation of the Cypriot
economy over the recent years.
Cyprus stands at a pivotal moment in its ongoing economic evolution. Over the past
decade, we have witnessed significant shifts in our economic and banking models, from
the recovery following the financial crisis of 2013 to a more diversified and resilient
economy today. At the same time, global and regional developments-including
geopolitical and trade tensions, technological advancements, and climate imperatives-
are shaping a new economic reality that requires strategic adaptation and agile
forwardlooking policies, but they are also fueling uncertainty that warrants vigilance and agility.
The ESM has played a crucial role in safeguarding financial stability in the euro area
and has been a key partner in Cyprus's economic recovery and resilience. Its role in
ensuring a robust macroeconomic and financial performance is as relevant today as it
was during the crisis years. However, stability and robustness alone are not enough-we
must also ensure that our economy is built on a foundation of sustainability, innovation,
and inclusiveness.
The Banking Sector: a pillar of economic stability
A critical component of our economic transformation has been the strengthening of our
banking sector. Over the past decade, Cyprus has made remarkable progress in
enhancing financial stability, reducing non-performing loans, and improving regulatory
oversight. The banking sector today is resilient and enjoys stronger capital and liquidity
buffers, among the highest in the euro area. These reforms have positioned our
financial institutions to support economic growth more effectively.
Looking ahead, the continued modernization of our banking system will be crucial.
Embracing digitalization, strengthening financial literacy, and ensuring access to
financing for businesses and households are key priorities. Additionally, aligning with
European banking standards and sustainability frameworks will further enhance the
sector's role in fostering long-term economic stability. The resilience and adaptability of
our financial institutions will be instrumental in supporting Cyprus's broader economic
transformation.
Structural Changes: the future of the Cypriot economy
Cyprus has made substantial progress in bolstering its financial system and expanding
its economic diversification. However, structural challenges persist, and our discussions
today will center on effective strategies to tackle them. I will now mention some of the
key areas of transformation that have strengthened Cyprus's ability to withstand
external shocks, whether from financial market fluctuations, geopolitical shifts, or supply
chain disruptions:
We have reduced reliance on traditional sectors and expanded our footprint on
industries such as technology, fintech, and renewable energy.
The adoption of digital financial services enhanced productivity, and
promoted innovation.
We have aligned our economy with European and global sustainability goals, thus
ensuring that growth is both environmentally responsible and economically viable.
As regards labour market and skills development, we have adopted demographic
changes by fostering lifelong learning, and ensuring that our workforce is equipped with
the skills necessary for the jobs of the future.
Structural reforms and the Stability and Growth Pact
Structural changes are not just a necessity for economic modernization, they are also
closely linked to the European framework for fiscal and economic governance. The
Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) sets the rules for sound public finances in the euro
area, ensuring that fiscal policies support economic stability and sustainable growth. As
Cyprus continues its path of economic transformation, it is imperative that our structural
reforms are aligned with the principles of fiscal responsibility, debt sustainability, and
macroeconomic resilience. The budget surplus for 2024, which reached 4,5% of GDP,
illustrates our commitment to fiscal responsibility. Furthermore, the trajectory of public
debt, which reached 61,9% in January 2025, reinforces the country's progress toward
long-term financial stability.
The SGP framework emphasizes structural reforms that enhance productivity,
competitiveness, and economic resilience. For Cyprus, this means:
Strengthening public finances further while supporting growth-enhancing reforms
in key sectors.
Ensuring that investments in digital and green transformation are conducted in a
fiscally sustainable manner.
Enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulatory frameworks,
fostering an environment that supports private sector growth and innovation.
At the Central Bank of Cyprus, we recognize the importance of the balance between
fiscal prudence and strategic investment in long-term growth. Our policies must
safeguard that Cyprus continues to comply with the European fiscal framework while
creating the conditions for sustainable economic progress.
A shared responsibility for the future
While challenges remain, Cyprus has repeatedly exhibited through time endurance and
its ability to adapt, reform, and progress. It is now the time to navigate the next steps in
this journey, identifying policy priorities, investment opportunities, and regulatory
frameworks that will further shape a healthy and prosperous future of our economy. A
research and policy center has been recently established at the Central Bank of
Cyprus, dedicated to conducting in-depth analysis and research to inform and guide our
policy decisions.
I encourage an active engagement in today's discussions, exchange of ideas, and
exploring solutions that will enable Cyprus to position itself as a dynamic, competitive,
and resilient economy within the euro area and beyond.
Once again, I would like to extend my sincere appreciation to our ESM colleagues for
their collaboration and I wish you all a productive and insightful participation.
Thank you. | - Cyprus is at a pivotal moment in its economic evolution with significant shifts in its economic and banking models over the past decade, transitioning to a more diversified and resilient economy.
- Global and regional developments, such as geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and climate change, require strategic adaptation and agile policies.
- The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has been crucial in Cyprus's economic recovery and resilience, ensuring financial stability within the euro area.
- The banking sector is a pillar of economic stability; progress has been made in enhancing financial stability, reducing non-performing loans, and improving regulatory oversight.
- Continued modernization of the banking sector is critical, including embracing digitalization, strengthening financial literacy, and enhancing access to financing.
- Cyprus has expanded its economic diversification, emphasizing technology, fintech, and renewable energy, while aligning with European sustainability goals.
- Structural reforms are linked to the European framework for fiscal and economic governance, with a commitment to fiscal responsibility evidenced by a budget surplus and decreasing public debt.
- The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) emphasizes enhancing productivity, competitiveness, and economic resilience, aligning Cyprus's reforms with fiscal sustainability principles.
- There is a focus on ensuring investments in digital and green transformation are fiscally sustainable and enhancing public administration efficiency to support private sector growth.
- The Central Bank of Cyprus is committed to balancing fiscal prudence with strategic investment for long-term growth, aligning with the European fiscal framework.
- Cyprus is encouraged to identify policy priorities, investment opportunities, and regulatory frameworks to shape a healthy and prosperous economic future, supported by a newly established research and policy center at the Central Bank of Cyprus. | Christodoulos Patsalides | Central Bank of Cyprus | CY | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250324c.htm | 2025-03-21T00:00:00 | John C Williams: Certain uncertainty | Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference, Nassau, Bahamas, 21 March 2025. | Certain Uncertainty
March 21, 2025
John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer
Remarks at the Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference, Nassau, Bahamas
As prepared for delivery
Introduction
Good morning, everyone. I'm so pleased to be here with you today.
As it says on my CV, monetary policy under uncertainty has been my primary area of research. And after 30 years in
1
central banking, I can unequivocally say: Uncertainty is the only certainty in monetary policy.
Today I will discuss the economy and monetary policy in the context of a changing and uncertain landscape. I'll talk
about global inflationary trends, inflation expectations, and how the Federal Reserve is working to achieve its dual
mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Before I go further, I must give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not
necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System.
The Economy Today
I will start with a snapshot of the U.S. economy. The economy entered the new year on firm footing. GDP and job
growth have been solid, propelled by robust gains in the labor force and productivity. After a period of cooling, a wide
range of labor market indicators, including the unemployment rate, have stabilized, with supply and demand broadly
2
in balance and the labor market no longer a source of inflationary pressure.
The disinflationary process has continued on a bumpy path toward the FOMC's inflation goal of 2 percent over the
longer run. After reaching a 40-year high of over 7 percent in 2022, inflation-as measured by the 12-month
percentage change in the personal consumption expenditures price index-has fallen to about 2-1/2 percent, still
somewhat above our 2 percent target.
That's where things stand now, but the future is highly uncertain. Recent data-both hard and soft-are sending
mixed signals. Measures of policy uncertainty have increased sharply in recent months. This is also seen in responses
3
that explicitly ask about uncertainty in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). And my
business and financial market contacts highlight the role of greater uncertainty, especially around trade policy, in
making it more difficult to plan investments and hiring.
Navigating uncertainty during periods of large changes will be a recurring theme in my remarks today. I will dig
deeper into two topics that are important to understanding inflation in the current macroeconomic environment and
that will no doubt shape the future course of our economies. And since this is the "Macroeconometric Caribbean
Conference," I will of course bring evidence from macroeconometric models to bear on these topics.
Global Inflation Trends
It goes without saying-especially to this audience of representatives of central banks from the Caribbean region-
that our economies are interconnected, and developments in one part of the world can have effects that ricochet
across the globe. To be sure, a country's economy is influenced by domestic developments, but when it comes to
inflation, global factors are a major driver, one that stretches across countries. This dynamic was particularly evident
during the past five years, when countries around the world experienced a sharp rise and subsequent fall in
4
inflation.
Economists at the New York Fed have developed a statistical model, called Global Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
5
(Global MCT), to measure and better understand the behavior of the persistent components of global inflation. This
model uses inflation data from seven economies to estimate a common global inflation trend, as well as global
sectoral inflation trends in tradable sectors, such as core goods and food and energy. It exploits the co-movement of
the persistent components of inflation across both countries and sectors.
This analysis uncovers very strong common components of inflation, with global factors explaining an overwhelming
share of the persistent movements in inflation rates across the economies in the sample, except for Japan's.
Importantly, these results are not driven by the pandemic and post-pandemic periods, as they are evident in
prepandemic inflation data going back to 1990.
Analysis using this model finds that supply shocks were the primary driver of the rise and subsequent decline in
6
global inflation trends over the past several years, both at the general and sectoral levels. From the beginning of
2021 to late 2022, the estimated global inflation trend soared, then reversed most of that increase over the following
two years. Although supply factors were primarily responsible for these swings, demand factors also played a role in
boosting the global inflation trend from late 2021 to mid-2024.
When inflation is a global phenomenon, what can individual central banks do to control it? Here again, Global MCT
provides a useful lens to analyze this question. Based on an estimated vector autoregressive model that includes
Global MCT, U.S. monetary policy shocks have economically and statistically significant effects on both the global
inflation trend and the core goods global inflation trend. And the peak effect occurred after about 12 months. Similar
results are obtained using a version of the model with European Central Bank monetary policy shocks.
These empirical analyses illustrate how monetary policy spills over and spills back to domestic and international
rates of inflation. In the United States, as in other countries, monetary policy decisions are based on domestic
mandates. But as policymakers, we also understand that our decisions can affect global economic and financial
conditions, and in turn can spill back onto our shores. This is one reason why it's so important that we meet in venues
such as this one to share insights and analyses.
Inflation Expectations
I will now turn to the critically important role of inflation expectations and how households and businesses think
about future inflation. Well-anchored inflation expectations are paramount for ensuring price stability, especially
during times of turbulence and uncertainty. The experience of the past five years is a testament to this:
Wellanchored expectations were key to achieving disinflation while avoiding severe economic consequences.
It is useful to distinguish between short-run expectations that tend to respond to inflation shocks and medium- and
longer-run expectations that should be less responsive when expectations are well anchored.
In the past two months, we have seen clear signs of a broad-based increase in short-term inflation expectations, but
most indicators point to continued well-anchored medium- and longer-term expectations. For example,
marketbased measures of inflation expectations have risen at shorter horizons but have been stable at longer horizons. And
New York Fed business surveys from February show that businesses in the Federal Reserve's Second District expect
higher cost increases, particularly among manufacturing firms and businesses with a high import share of their
inputs. While year-ahead inflation expectations of firms also moved up, their longer-term expectations remained
7 8
stable. And the February SCE indicated that expectations are largely unchanged over the medium and longer run.
The sensitivity of short-run inflation expectations to inflation shocks-while medium- and longer-run expectations
are well anchored-is also seen in formal econometric analysis using data from the SCE and the University of
9
Michigan surveys.
In estimating the sensitivity of inflation expectations at different forecast horizons to "inflation surprises"-that is,
the difference between what a survey respondent expected inflation to be and what it turned out to be-the analysis
yields two insights. First, the estimated effects of inflation surprises to revisions in inflation expectations are
considerably larger at the one-year-ahead horizon than at longer horizons. Second, the estimated effects during the
past five years are similar to those during the pre-pandemic period. Broadly similar results are obtained when
analyzing the co-movement of revisions in expectations across different horizons.
This analysis indicates that households expect an inflation shock will gradually decay over the ensuing years. In
particular, although inflation shocks are expected to have persistent effects on inflation, these effects are anticipated
to largely dissipate after five years. Importantly, there are no signs of inflation expectations becoming unmoored
relative to the pre-pandemic period.
Monetary Policy Amid High Uncertainty
As I said at the start of my remarks, the economy entered this year in a good place, but there is a high degree of
uncertainty about what the future holds. So, what does this all mean for monetary policy?
At its meeting on Wednesday, the FOMC decided to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at
41/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In the accompanying statement, the Committee noted that uncertainty around the economic
10
outlook has increased, and it is attentive to risks to both sides of its mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its strong
commitment to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective, and its policy
decisions will be based on a careful assessment of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
In addition, the Committee decided to slow the pace of reduction in its holdings of securities. The ongoing process of
11
balance sheet reduction follows the principles and plans laid out in 2022. Last June, the Committee took a first step
12
in slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction. That process has progressed very well, resulting in a reduction of
over $2 trillion in our securities holdings so far. This week's decision to slow it further is a natural next step to
smooth the transition from abundant reserves to a level that is somewhat above ample. This action has no
implications for our intended stance of monetary policy and should not affect the size of our balance sheet over the
medium term.
The Economic Outlook
Turning to the U.S. economic outlook, I expect GDP growth this year to step down from last year's pace in part
because of a slowdown in labor force growth due to lower immigration rates. But it's hard to know with any precision
how the economy will evolve. Uncertainty is high, and there are many scenarios that could play out, depending on
fiscal and trade policies and geopolitical and other developments. In the Summary of Economic Projections that the
FOMC released this week, the central tendency of projections for GDP growth this year was between about 1-1/2 and
13
2 percent, and for inflation, between about 2-1/2 and 3 percent. Any of these outcomes-or even some others
outside these ranges-seem completely plausible to me.
In addition, it is hard currently to assign probabilities to these scenarios. This is something economists refer to as
Knightian uncertainty. In these circumstances, it will be important to take a holistic view in monitoring and assessing
all available information. It is also fitting to take a risk management perspective in assessing the economic outlook, in
evaluating the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and in making policy decisions.
Conclusion
There is certain uncertainty in monetary policy. The current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely
appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2 percent goal. It also
positions us well to adjust to changing circumstances that affect the achievement of our dual mandate goals.
Whatever the economy has in store for us, I am committed to supporting maximum employment and returning
inflation to our 2 percent objective.
Martín Almuzara, Babur Kocaoglu, and Argia Sbordone, "Is the Recent Inflationary Spike a Global Phenomenon?," Federal Reserve
Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, May 16, 2024.
5
Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng,
"Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, February 27, 2025.
6
Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng,
"Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Inflation Trends," Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, February 27,
2025.
7
Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Ben Hyman, "Firms' Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up," Federal Reserve Bank of New
York Liberty Street Economics, March 5, 2025.
8
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations (February 2025).
9
John C. Williams, "Discussion of 'Monetary Policy Transmission to Real Activity'", remarks at the 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum,
New York City, March 7, 2025.
10
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, March 19, 2025.
11
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, January
26, 2022; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet,
May 4, 2022.
12
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, May 1, 2024.
13
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, March 19, 2025. | - Uncertainty is the only certainty in monetary policy, particularly in the context of global inflationary trends and inflation expectations.
- The U.S. economy began the year on a strong footing, with GDP and job growth solid, and labor market indicators stabilized.
- The disinflationary process is ongoing, with inflation falling from a 40-year high but remaining above the 2% target.
- Policy uncertainty has increased, impacting investments and hiring due to factors like trade policy.
- Global inflation trends are heavily influenced by supply shocks, with the Global Multivariate Core Trend Inflation model indicating strong common components of inflation across countries.
- U.S. and European monetary policy shocks have significant effects on global inflation trends, highlighting the interconnected nature of economies.
- Well-anchored medium- and long-term inflation expectations are crucial for price stability, while short-term expectations have risen.
- The FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged, emphasizing increased uncertainty and risks to its dual mandate.
- The FOMC decided to further slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction, which is unrelated to the current monetary policy stance.
- Economic growth is expected to slow due to factors like reduced labor force growth from lower immigration rates.
- There is high uncertainty and difficulty in predicting future economic scenarios, urging a risk management perspective.
- The current monetary policy stance is deemed appropriate given labor market conditions and inflation status. | John C Williams | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | US | President and Chief Executive Officer | President | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250325c.htm | 2025-03-24T00:00:00 | Michael S Barr: Helping small businesses reach their potential | Speech by Mr Michael S Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the Aspen Institute, Washington DC, 24 March 2025. | For release on delivery
3:10 p.m. EDT
March 24, 2025
Helping Small Businesses Reach Their Potential
Remarks by
Michael S. Barr
Member
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
at
The Aspen Institute
Washington, D.C.
March 24, 2025
Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 The United States has an enviable
entrepreneurial culture and a strong track record of building new companies. Yet, new and small
business owners often navigate significant challenges from establishment to growth. These
challenges typically include limitations in accessing capital, in developing robust business and
professional networks for peer support and opportunities, and in building the comprehensive
skills, resources, and social connections that contribute greatly to business resiliency and
sustainability. Women and minority entrepreneurs may face even greater obstacles. While
business formation is, of course, primarily a matter for the private sector, public policy can and
should encourage increased rates of entrepreneurship and business formation-and the capital,
networks, and skills essential for success for all business owners.
Today, I want to highlight the vital role that small businesses play in driving the U.S.
economy, consider the challenges in accessing credit that some small business owners face, and
offer some practical solutions to help small businesses thrive.
Small Businesses and Their Role in the Economy
Small businesses are the heart of the U.S. economy. They produce nearly half of the
country's gross domestic product and employ just under half of all private sector workers.2
Small businesses have created more than 60 percent of net new jobs since 1995, and
business applications have remained consistently elevated at around 5 million annually since
mid-2020.3 In recent years, women-owned businesses and minority-owned businesses were two
of the fastest-growing segments of businesses. The number of small businesses owned by
1
The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve
Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
2
U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, "Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business,
2024." July 2024, https://advocacy.sba.gov/2024/07/23/frequently-asked-questions-about-small-business-2024.
3
Id. See also Kennan Fikri and Daniel Newman, "Business Applications Eked Out a New Record in 2023,"
Economic Innovation Group, January 2024, https://eig.org/2023-business-formation.
minorities increased by almost 60 percent and the growth rate for women-owned businesses was
not far behind at 50 percent during this time period.4 We should all be encouraged by these
statistics, as several studies suggest that improving business ownership and entrepreneurship
across demographic groups would help grow our economy faster.5
And from an individual perspective, entrepreneurship and small business ownership may
offer meaningful economic advantages. Research suggests that entrepreneurship often correlates
with enhanced job satisfaction and improved economic mobility for business owners-though
outcomes naturally vary based on multiple factors including market conditions, industry, and
individual circumstances.6
As we recognize the value of small businesses, it's also important to recognize that
surviving as a small business is not easy. About one in six new businesses fail during their first
year and almost 50% fail by their fifth year.7 When a small business struggles or fails, the
repercussions often extend beyond the enterprise itself. Entrepreneurs who have invested
4
See U.S. Census Bureau, "Survey of Business Owners-Survey Results: 2012," February 2016,
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2012/econ/2012-sbo.html; "Annual Business Survey: 2022," October
2023,
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/annual-business-survey-employer-businesscharacteristics.html; "Census Bureau Releases New Data on Minority-Owned, Veteran-Owned, and Women-Owned
Businesses," October 26, 2023,
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/annual-business-surveyemployer-business-characteristics.html; and "Nonemployer Statistics by Demographics: 2021,"
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/nesd.html.
5
McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, The Economic Impact of Closing the Racial Wealth Gap, August 13,
2019,
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/-the-economic-impact-of-closing-the-racialwealth-gap. McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, The Economic State of Latinos in America: the American
Dream Deferred, December 2021,
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/sustainable-inclusive-growth/theeconomic-state-of-latinos-in-america-the-american-dream-deferred. Andre M. Perry and Carl Romer, "To Expand
the Economy, Invest in Black Businesses," The Brookings Institution. December 31, 2020,
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/to-expand-the-economy-invest-in-black-businesses.
Wells Fargo, "2025 Impact of Women-Owned Businesses,"
https://www.wippeducationinstitute.org/_files/ugd/2f8f8e_4330c836da414d2ea7c6ea93b80bd6a4.pdf.
6
See, e.g., Levine, R., & Rubinstein, Y. (2022). "Smart and illicit: Who becomes an entrepreneur and do they earn
more?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(1), 191-241; JPMorganChase & Co and Gallup. Entrepreneurial
Insights: Owning and Employing as a Pathway to Wealth and Well Being. April 2024,
https://news.gallup.com/poll/643268/employing-others-linked-wealth-wellbeing.aspx.
7
US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Survival of Private Sector Establishments by Opening Year,
bls.gov/bdm/us_age_naics_00_table7.txt.
personal savings and assets in their ventures may face significant financial strain, creating ripple
effects that impact their families' stability as well as the broader economic health of their
communities.
In light of these dynamics, it is essential to understand the fundamental challenges that
small businesses face and develop targeted tools and policies that can effectively support
entrepreneurs as they start and scale their businesses. Today, let me focus on credit access and
the need for more transparency in lending terms.
Access to Credit for Small Businesses
Many small businesses need credit to launch and grow their business. Small businesses
access financing from diverse sources, including banks of all sizes, credit unions, online lenders,
and other nonbank financing companies. Despite this range of sources, the Federal Reserve's
Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) identified credit availability as a challenge faced by over a
quarter of small businesses.8 In addition, many small businesses face problems with the credit
they do obtain.
While access to credit poses challenges for many small businesses, these hurdles can be
even more pronounced for women and minority business owners. Research consistently shows
that women-owned businesses typically start with smaller amounts of initial capital compared to
other firms, even when accounting for factors like education, experience, credit scores, and
business characteristics such as industry and growth potential.9 Furthermore, women- and
minority-owned businesses often encounter distinct obstacles when seeking financing. Minority
business owners often have lower credit scores compared to non-minority business owners,
which can lead to lower approval rates for loans.10
Banks, nonbanks, and online lenders have the potential to fill these financing needs. But
to be effective, they need to understand consumer preferences and behavior to provide credit
products that meet these needs in a safe and fair way.
Addressing the Need for Financial Transparency
A significant challenge facing small businesses is the absence of policies providing
essential tools and protection for small business borrowers. Despite the fact that many small
businesses function more like households than Fortune 500 companies, they generally fall
outside regulatory disclosure requirements intended to ensure transparency in pricing, facilitate
comparison shopping, and protect the financial interest of borrowers.
Consider the Truth in Lending Act (TILA), implemented in Regulation Z, which does not
extend protection to small business borrowers.11 This exclusion stems partly from the
assumption that small business owners possess financial sophistication or can access professional
assistance when needed. This regulatory gap matters because business financing offers may
women start with less capital than men and are less likely to take on additional debt to expand their businesses. They
are more likely than men to indicate that they do not need any financing to start their businesses.
Susan Coleman and Alicia Robb, "A Comparison of New Firm Financing by Gender: Evidence from the Kauffman
Firm Survey Data," May 5, 2009, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11187-009-9205-7. This report found
that, consistent with previous studies, women start their businesses with significantly lower levels of financial
capital than men. Findings also reveal that women rely heavily on personal rather than external sources of debt and
equity for both start-up capital and follow-on investments.
10
Fairlie, Robert, Alicia Robb, and David T. Robinson. "Black and White: Access to Capital Among
MinorityOwned Startups." NBER Working Paper No. 28154. November 2020.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28154/w28154.pdf.
11
While Regulation Z sets forth requirements for consumer credit advertising - and includes provisions to state
charges as an Annual Percentage Rate (APR) and, among other things, full repayment terms when referencing
payments, and certain other credit terms that may apply - Regulation Z does not apply to business credit. Because of
this, lenders offering small business credit and lending products, often have more flexibility when it comes to
disclosures of their products' costs and features than do lenders offering credit products for personal or household
use.
present pricing structures that differ substantially from the standardized disclosures that small
business owners are accustomed to seeing on consumer credit disclosures.
Research from focus groups conducted by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal
Reserve Bank of Cleveland revealed that many small business owners struggle with
understanding the specialized terminology used by certain nonbank lenders.12 For instance,
instead of providing familiar metrics like an Annual Percentage Rate (APR) or an interest rate,
some nonbank providers present a factor rate-a fundamentally different metric that cannot be
directly compared to an APR or interest rate. The research identified a lender's website that
advertised a "factor rate of 1.15" which translated to an undisclosed estimated APR of
approximately 70 percent. Further complicating matters, some lenders may disclose an interest
rate without including an APR, meaning that various fees and additional costs may not be
reflected in the stated rate that borrowers often use to evaluate their financing options.
While complexity sometimes serves a business purpose, in many cases, it obfuscates the
costs and can lead to poor financial decisions by small business owners. More broadly, product
design by banks and nonbanks should help to counter, not lean into, biases that can lead to poor
financial decision-making. For instance, present bias describes our natural tendency to prioritize
immediate benefits over long-term considerations. This might lead business owners to focus
more on quick access to funds or low initial payments rather than evaluating the complete long-
term cost structure. Similarly, status quo bias suggests that once a small business borrower
establishes a lending relationship, they may be less inclined to explore alternatives, even when
more favorable options become available. The perceived complexity or uncertainty of
refinancing or switching lenders can reinforce this tendency to maintain existing arrangements.
Understanding psychological factors and cognitive biases can help small business borrowers
make more informed financial decisions by recognizing how the presentation of lending terms
might affect their evaluation process.
In light of these realities, banks, small business advocates, and industry stakeholders
should support policies that help small businesses better understand risks, and to drive the market
towards products that are designed to overcome, not exacerbate, these problems. Potential
policies would include enhancing transparency in loan terms, thus enabling business owners to
make more informed financial decisions. Additional borrower safeguards worth consideration
include ensuring that loan products are sustainably repayable and don't lead businesses into
costly reborrowing cycles, as well as ensuring fair treatment both during the loan origination
process and throughout any restructuring efforts or collection proceedings.
Some states are moving forward with policies that protect small businesses. California
and New York, for example, now require many lenders to offer clear disclosure of the APR and
estimated monthly payments.13 This requirement gives borrowers the opportunity to understand
the financing being offered in a clear, concise manner, enabling informed comparisons across
different product options. Several other states passed versions of disclosure laws for small
business financing transactions, with some variability over the range of financing transactions
covered and the types of disclosures required.14
The Role of Community-Based Programs
I want to recognize the important role that community-based programs can play in
supporting entrepreneurs. These programs provide accessible tools, technical assistance, and
educational resources that help entrepreneurs reach their full potential. Local organizations such
as small business development centers, educational institutions, and community development
financial institutions are connecting small business owners with personalized consulting,
technical assistance and education, and entrepreneurial skills development.
The most successful of these types of programs deliver practical technical assistance and
education while fostering collaboration within local entrepreneurial ecosystems. These include
university- or community college-based initiatives connecting business owners with volunteer
consultants, resource hubs offering workshops, or rural development centers providing
specialized support. By emphasizing both skill-building and community connections, these
programs help small businesses and entrepreneurs overcome barriers to success.
Conclusion
In conclusion, small businesses are engines of innovation, job creation, and economic
mobility in our society. Great work has been done to understand what it takes to help small
businesses thrive and grow, including access to sound and affordable credit, skills-building, and
business networks. I encourage us to build on this work by enhancing financial transparency,
implementing supportive policies, and leveraging community-based programs to enhance
business opportunities. These collective efforts to support entrepreneurs and small business
owners not only benefit individual enterprises but also contribute to a healthy and dynamic
economy that works for all. | - Small businesses are crucial to the U.S. economy, producing nearly half of the GDP and employing about half of all private sector workers.
- Significant challenges for small businesses include limited access to capital, lack of robust business networks, and insufficient business skills.
- Women and minority entrepreneurs face even greater obstacles, starting with lower capital and dealing with distinct financing challenges.
- Credit access remains a major hurdle, with over a quarter of small businesses facing challenges in obtaining credit, particularly those owned by women and minorities.
- There is an urgent need for financial transparency, as small business credit lacks the regulatory disclosure requirements that protect personal borrowers, leading to potential confusion and poor financial decisions.
- Regulatory gaps, such as the exclusion of small businesses from the Truth in Lending Act, result in less transparency around loan terms compared to consumer credit.
- Complex and opaque lending practices can exploit psychological biases, further complicating financial decisions for small business owners.
- States like California and New York have introduced requirements for clearer disclosure of lending terms, which could be a model for broader adoption.
- Community-based programs play a vital role, offering technical assistance, education, and facilitating connections within local entrepreneurial ecosystems.
- Policies enhancing financial transparency and community support would facilitate better decision-making and help small businesses thrive, benefiting the broader economy. | Michael S Barr | Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System | US | Vice Chair for Supervision | Vice Chair | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250326f.htm | 2025-03-24T00:00:00 | Gabriel Makhlouf: Opening remarks - launch of the Consumer Protection Code | Opening remarks by Mr Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, at the launch of the Consumer Protection Code, Dublin, 24 March 2025. | Gabriel Makhlouf: Opening remarks - launch of the Consumer
Protection Code
Opening remarks by Mr Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, at
the launch of the Consumer Protection Code, Dublin, 24 March 2025.
* * *
Good morning everyone,
I would like to welcome you all to the Central Bank today.
Welcome in particular to Robert Troy TD, Minister of State, as well as Brian McHugh,
Chair of the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC), and Liam
Sloyan the Financial Services and Pensions Ombudsman (FSPO).
We are also joined by stakeholders from across the financial system who, over the last
three years, have supported and informed the development of the revised Consumer
Protection Code which we are publishing today. Thank you all for coming and thank you
for your commitment to dialogue and engagement to inform the new Code. You have
made an important contribution to the new Code.
Before turning to the Code itself, let me say a few words about consumer protection
more generally and our approach here in the Central Bank of Ireland.
Our mission is to serve the public interest by maintaining monetary and financial
stability while ensuring that the financial system operates in the best interests of
consumers and the wider economy. We are guided by the objective set out in our
founding legislation which stated that the Central Bank's "constant and predominant aim
shall be the welfare of the people as a whole". Everything that we do is aimed at
serving the public interest and protecting consumers of financial services, whether it is
through the consumer protection code, the mortgage measures, our monetary policy
actions, our oversight of the payments system, or our supervision of individual firms.
Over the last decade, we have, along with the CCPC and FSPO in particular, played a
significant role in strengthening the consumer protection framework in Ireland, to ensure
that the system and protections are in line with global standards. I was pleased with the
endorsement we received from the OECD just before Christmas. But while this
strengthening of the framework has improved supports and outcomes for consumers,
we also recognise the importance of ensuring that the framework - like all frameworks -
continues to adapt and evolve so that it remains fit for purpose and future-ready.
The challenges and risks facing us are clear. The global economy is fragmenting and
countries across the globe are undergoing significant economic transitions - in
demography, in technology, in climate - while also experiencing a period of
unprecedented innovation. The ways in which we as consumers buy, use and engage
with financial services are changing significantly. These changes reflect new
preferences, provide new opportunities and meet different needs on the part of
individuals, households and businesses. But they also create new challenges and new
risks in the financial sector that we supervise and for the consumers we protect.
In the face of this changing ecosystem, we need to adapt, evolve and transform. In fact
all of us - firms, regulators, advocates, media - need to work together to secure
customers' interests as they seek to navigate their financial affairs and to plan for their
financial futures.
As set out in our Strategy, the Central Bank recognises that we must keep up with the
changing world if we are to continue to deliver on our mandate. As both a regulator and
supervisor we are working to ensure that our frameworks are ready to respond to the
changes that people are experiencing in their daily lives, and that we are connected to -
and understand - the needs of the individuals, households and businesses that make
up the real economy which ultimately supports the welfare of the people as a
whole. For us it means being focused on innovation, building our data capability,
modernising our regulations, evolving to adopt new mandates and transforming our
supervisory framework.
Our new supervisory approach came into effect in January this year. It remains
outcomes-focused and risk-based, building on our existing principles and
practices. The changes enable a more integrated approach to the different aspects of
our mandate but remain focused on achieving four safeguarding outcomes: the
protection of consumer and investor interests, the integrity of the financial system, the
safety and soundness of firms, and the stability of the financial system. Importantly, our
new approach places consumer protection at the heart of day-to-day supervision. It
positions us better as an organisation to meet our objectives to ensure consumers of
financial services are protected in a changing financial landscape.
Consumer Protection Code
Let me turn to the revised Consumer Protection Code itself. It is built on the strong
foundations of its predecessor which is the cornerstone of our - and the wider national
- consumer protection framework for financial services. Throughout the course of the
morning, you will hear further detail on the measures and protections that the updated
Code will introduce. And you will also be able to read about them in the suite of
materials that we are publishing today.
At its core, financial regulation is about supporting positive outcomes, protecting
consumers and investors, and, ultimately, contributing to the economic well-being of the
community as a whole. In reviewing the Code we have focused on modernising the
regulatory framework to reflect the provision of financial services in a digital world.
Consumers will benefit from a package of protections that better reflect how they are
accessing financial services in the modern world. Regulated firms will benefit from an
integrated regulatory format, and a clearer articulation of their Code obligations,
complementing the work they are already doing.
One of our key objectives in revising the Code has been to put customers at the heart
of the culture, strategy and business models of financial services firms. This is
addressed through a new Securing Customers' Interests Standard, supported by
detailed guidance which describes what firms need to consider, the actions they need
to take, and the mind-set they should have towards their customers. We want to see a
maturing of firms' understanding and engagement with their consumer protection
obligations where they take ownership for meeting these obligations, deliver positive
outcomes and are proactive in addressing any issues that arise.
Another important aspect of our review has been on protecting consumers in vulnerable
circumstances, as they are more likely to suffer detriment or harm. The new Code sets
out an updated definition of vulnerability along with enhanced requirements which
reflect an improved understanding of its dynamic nature, recognising that people can
move in and out of circumstances that make them vulnerable. We want firms need to
understand the broad nature of vulnerability, and ensure that their culture, policies and
processes take account of the needs of consumers in vulnerable circumstances.
The revised Consumer Protection Code comes into effect 12 months from today. We
will continue to engage with industry and consumer representatives in relation to its
implementation over the next year. We want to see the new Code contributing to
building trust in the financial system and for consumers to have the confidence that it
will work to deliver positive outcomes for them.
In my view implementing the revised Code successfully will be more likely if it is seen
as a collective effort on the part of all participants in the financial system:
firms must continue to put the customer at the heart of their culture, strategy,
business model and decision-making. Customer interests should not be the
afterthought to finalising a strategy. Consideration of the impacts on customers
and customer outcomes needs to be a key aspect of the strategy development
and decision-making process itself;
consumer representative organisations play an important role in supporting and
advising consumers in their interactions with financial services and I'm sure they
will continue to do this as we work through implementation of the revised Code;
media organisations of course play an important role in informing all the
participants in the system;
agencies such as the CCPC, FSPO and others will continue to play their
important roles as key players in the national consumer protection framework; and
the Central Bank we will remain focused on ensuring that the financial system
operates in the best interests of consumers and the wider economy, as well as
playing our part in communicating with consumers to raise their awareness of the
revised Code.
Adopting a whole-of-system approach will support effective implementation of the
revised Code and ensure the protection of consumer and investor interests in their
interactions with a rapidly-changing financial system.
Thank you once again for joining us today. | - Launch of the revised Consumer Protection Code aimed at better protecting financial service consumers.
- Emphasis on serving public interest by maintaining financial stability and operating in consumers' best interests.
- Revision aligns with global standards, and adapts to evolving economic and technological changes.
- New supervisory framework introduced, focused on outcomes and consumer protection.
- Updated Code addresses digital access to financial services, offering a modern regulatory framework.
- Introduction of the Securing Customers’ Interests Standard to prioritize customers in firms’ culture and strategies.
- Special focus on protecting consumers in vulnerable circumstances, with an improved understanding of vulnerability.
- Implementation of the revised Code set for 12 months with ongoing engagement with industry and consumer groups.
- Encouragement for collective effort by all financial system participants to ensure customer interests remain central.
- Importance of media and organizations like CCPC and FSPO in supporting consumer protection.
- Central Bank committed to communication and raising consumer awareness of the revised Code. | Gabriel Makhlouf | Central Bank of Ireland | IE | Governor | Governor | [
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] | null |
https://www.bis.org/review/r250326b.htm | 2025-03-25T00:00:00 | John C Williams: Opening remarks - New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference | Opening remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference, organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 25 March 2025. | John C Williams: Opening remarks - New York Fed Regional and
Community Banking Conference
Opening remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2025 New York Fed Regional and
Community Banking Conference, organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
New York City, 25 March 2025.
* * *
As prepared for delivery
Good morning, and welcome to the New York Fed.
We're so pleased to host you for today's event. Over the next few hours, we'll share
perspectives on topics that are important to you as representatives of community and
regional banks across the Federal Reserve's Second District.
If you've been here and heard similar remarks before, you may recall that this is the
point where I offer a crucial piece of information. And that's the standard disclaimer that
the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the
Federal Open Market Committee or others in the Federal Reserve System.
The next crucial piece of information that I'll mention, on which I know you all agree, is
that community and regional banks play a central role in this country's robust financial
system and in the economic health of this region.
A critically important goal for the Federal Reserve is to maintain a safe and competitive
banking system-and community and regional banks are a big part of that system.
To meet that objective, part of our core mission at the New York Fed is to supervise
financial institutions of all sizes across the Second District. We evaluate the overall
safety and soundness of banking organizations by assessing risk management,
compliance with laws and regulation, operational resilience, and more. Our team here
works closely with colleagues at the Board of Governors and other federal and state
banking regulators to support this function.
While the building we are gathered in today is located in the heart of the financial district
in Lower Manhattan, our jurisdiction stretches far beyond the five boroughs of New York
City.
We supervise financial institutions from Buffalo to Plattsburgh . . . from Newark down to
Asbury Park . . . from Stamford, Connecticut to the end of Long Island . . . from Puerto
Rico to the U.S. Virgin Islands . . . and everywhere in between.
To help us carry out our responsibilities, my team and I regularly travel throughout the
Second District to meet with leaders in government, business, education, community
development, and the nonprofit sector. In fact, we've visited many of the locations I just
mentioned.
On these trips, we see first-hand that big banks don't always have much presence in
small cities. We hear directly from people about their banking opportunities and
challenges. And we feel the vital role that community and regional banks play by
enabling the flow of credit to individuals, households, and businesses that need it.
Ultimately, these visits provide us with a clearer picture of economic conditions and the
financial health of our region.
Understanding these conditions is critical. We recognize that what we do at the Federal
Reserve-especially regarding monetary policy-affects banks and their customers in all
sorts of ways.
Our connection to banks is not solely relegated to our supervisory responsibilities. We
perform key functions to maintain the integrity of the U.S. payment and settlement
system. This, of course, includes FedNow, the Fed's real-time payment network that
went live in July 2023. FedNow allows for banks and credit unions of all sizes to offer
instant payment services to their consumer and business customers, and more than
1,000 financial institutions are currently enrolled.1
Our responsibilities are broad, and they are big. That's why we invest so heavily in our
industry outreach efforts.
One way we do this is through convening various advisory groups, which operate on
local and national levels. To take one example, the New York Fed's Community
Depository Institutions Advisory Council is made up of representatives from commercial
banks, thrift institutions, and credit unions in the Second District.2
These forums provide us with insight into regional economic and financial conditions. In
turn, we are able to share timely and relevant information and resources.
Today's meeting is another chance for us to connect and convene. Now, when
households and businesses are experiencing heightened uncertainty about the
economic outlook, our conversation is critically important. The agenda that we have put
together will touch on many of these timely issues and topics. We've assembled a
roster of excellent speakers and panelists to lead the discussions, many of whom are
my esteemed colleagues. And we are keen to hear your views and perspectives in the
Q&A session a little later.
To that end, I'll now introduce the New York Fed's Director of Research, Kartik Athreya,
who will share his views on the national economic outlook. Kartik has had a
longstanding career at the Federal Reserve, and joined us in New York last year after
serving for many years at the Richmond Fed. He's been a tremendous asset to our
team, and I'm looking forward to his presentation.
Thank you.
1
FedNow Service, Seven lessons learned by FedNow® Service participants , January
15, 2025.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Community Depository Institutions Advisory
Council, October 2024. | - Community and regional banks play a central role in the country's financial system and regional economic health.
- The Federal Reserve prioritizes maintaining a safe and competitive banking system, with a focus on community and regional banks.
- The New York Fed supervises financial institutions across the Second District to ensure safety, soundness, and compliance.
- The Fed's jurisdiction includes diverse locations, extending well beyond New York City.
- Regular visits to these locations help the Fed understand local economic conditions and the importance of community banks in providing credit.
- Understanding these conditions is vital as Federal Reserve actions impact banks and their customers.
- The Federal Reserve supports the U.S. payment and settlement system, including the FedNow real-time payment network with over 1,000 enrolled financial institutions.
- Industry outreach is a critical component of the Fed's operations, involving convening advisory groups at local and national levels.
- These forums offer insights into regional conditions and allow for sharing relevant resources and information.
- The conference provides an opportunity to discuss timely issues amid economic uncertainty, with expert speakers and panelists.
- Introduction of the Director of Research, Kartik Athreya, to present on the national economic outlook. | John C Williams | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | US | President and Chief Executive Officer | President | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250326a.htm | 2025-03-25T00:00:00 | Adriana D Kugler: Latinos, entrepreneurs, and the US economy | Speech by Ms Adriana D Kugler, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the 2025 US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Legislative Summit, Washington DC, 25 March 2025. | Adriana D Kugler: Latinos, entrepreneurs, and the US economy
Speech by Ms Adriana D Kugler, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, at the 2025 US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Legislative Summit,
Washington DC, 25 March 2025.
* * *
Thank you, Ramiro, and thank you for the opportunity to speak with all of you today.1
Welcome to Washington, D.C.! Bienvenidos a la capital! I hope you have a productive
conference and an enjoyable visit. I am honored to speak with you today because I
have long appreciated the efforts of the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in
supporting Hispanic-owned businesses, especially small businesses and
entrepreneurs. It is also gratifying to speak to you today as the first Latin policymaker in
the Federal Reserve's history.
The support and mentorship from my family and my communities, including many in the
Hispanic community, have been foundational to my career. I am proud that I can bring
my own perspective and background to how I view the economy and economic
datajust as I value learning and hearing from others-because I know the decisions I make
can affect the lives of all Americans. As a Fed Governor, I serve all Americans, and I
strive to recognize the economic contributions that come from all corners of this country.
Today, I will talk about the entrepreneurial spirit that many Latinos embody and share
with you the importance of Latinos to the whole of the U.S. economy. I will then provide
my outlook for the U.S. economy.
Entrepreneurial Spirit
Let me start by saying that I have a strong affinity for entrepreneurs and recognize that
they are a driving force behind economic growth and job creation-which I know from the
data, as I have spent most of my career as a labor economist and researcher. But I truly
understand the crucial role they play in the economy because my grandparents and
father were entrepreneurs. My maternal grandfather was a dairy farmer, and I still recall
the effort and dedication I saw as a child while joining him as he went from store to
store selling milk early in the morning-before starting his other job as mayor of the town.
And my paternal grandparents owned an electronics shop, where they worked shoulder
to shoulder. My grandpa ran the front end of the shop, and my grandma was in charge
of the accounting and inventory. The lessons on the value of hard work and taking
initiative have stayed with me throughout my career in academia and continue to now in
my work as a policymaker. I have always brought an entrepreneurial spirit to everything
I do, seeking to be proactive about identifying opportunities and pursuing new or better
solutions to long-standing challenges.
And that is exactly what millions of Latino entrepreneurs do across the U.S. every day.
There are roughly 5 million Latino-owned businesses that provide jobs to millions of
2
other workers across the country. And the number of entrepreneurs is growing fast.
Between 2007 and 2022, there was a 57 percent increase in the number of Latin-owned
businesses, and the number of employees on their collective payrolls grew 1.2 million.
As I have emphasized in my past speeches, the growth in new business formation has
been critical in sustaining the productivity growth that we have experienced in recent
years, which has allowed us to achieve an economic expansion while reducing inflation.
I see this growth as I travel around the country and meet with workers and business
leaders. For example, I noted in a recent speech in Miami that South Florida is an area
with a large and vibrant Latino community and is also one of the top regions for new
business formation.3
Other data are also consistent with an elevated level of entrepreneurship in our
community. Latino adults who did not previously own a business created a new
4
company at nearly twice the national rate in 2023. And while the overall new
entrepreneurship rate edged lower after a pandemic-era jump, the rate for Latino
entrepreneurs continued to rise to a new record high in 2023. This growth matters to the
U.S. economy. Entrepreneurs improve the way of doing business and generate new
jobs and wealth. They often create new processes, products, markets, and services that
solve problems and improve the quality of life for many. Entrepreneurs also bring fresh
perspectives and contribute to economic progress. For example, a recent survey by the
Stanford Latino Entrepreneurship Initiative shows that Latino-owned businesses
outperform others in the adoption of artificial intelligence.5
Latinos in the Economy
Beyond starting businesses and creating jobs, Latinos are a large and growing part of
the economy-as consumers, workers, and investors. Collectively, Latino households
generate trillions of dollars in economic activity each year in the U.S. There are 34
million Latino workers in the U.S. labor force, and the median weekly earnings of
Latinos working full time has doubled over the past 20 years, according to the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. Those data points suggest that many Latino workers are moving into
higher-wage, higher-productivity jobs. Overall, nearly one in every five Americans are of
Latino heritage. In some states, such as Texas, that figure is closer to two in five. And
given that the Latino population is growing, it is not surprising that Texas also led the
6
country in job creation last year, adding 284,000 jobs to payrolls. Across the U.S., the
Latino labor force has grown 14 percent since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic,
much faster than the about 4 percent growth for the total labor force.
Latinos tend to work or seek employment at high rates. The Latino labor force
participation rate was 66.9 percent in February versus 62.4 percent for the population
overall. In addition to filling jobs for employers and meeting consumer demand for
goods and services, this labor force growth was a helpful counter to inflation at a time
when the labor market was historically tight.
The growth in the Latino workforce contributed to the rebalancing of the U.S. labor
market in recent years. The labor market has cooled from an overheated state to a
stable position characterized by low unemployment and diminished wage pressures.
Latino workers especially aided that rebalancing by taking positions that had been
difficult for employers to fill. For example, early in the pandemic many Americans
remodeled or expanded their homes, where they were suddenly spending much more
time. And anyone in this room that undertook such a project in 2021 or 2022 likely
remembers how difficult it was to hire carpenters, plumbers, and other workers. Many
skilled Latino workers filled that void. As of February, Latinos accounted for 35 percent
of all construction workers, up from about 30 percent five years ago. Similarly, Latino
workers have outsized representation in several other fields in which hiring has been
challenging in recent years. Over one-third of warehouse and storage workers and
onefourth of couriers-both important to the e-commerce industry-are Latino. Latinos also
represent a large share of critical childcare, automotive repair, and building
maintenance positions-the people that make it possible for everyone to get to work and
do their jobs well.
Moving forward, the young Latino population will continue to contribute to the labor
force, as 1 million Latinos every year will turn 18 over the next two decades. And the
educational attainment growth of Latinos is three times faster than that of other groups.
Already one-fourth of the nation's K-12 students are Latino-thus on track to soon
contribute to the skilled labor force.
Economic Outlook
Of course, I am always studying how the economy is playing out for Americans of all
backgrounds. As such, I would like to share with you my economic outlook before I
conclude.
The U.S. economy has been on solid footing in recent years. Consistent with that
assessment, real gross domestic product grew 2.5 percent last year. The most recent
data on economic activity in the early part of this year have shown some signs of
softness: Retail sales plunged more than 1 percent in January. However, that slowing
was not entirely unexpected after the strong showing in December, some bad weather
earlier this year, and the difficulties in the seasonal adjustment of the data. Moreover,
growth in retail sales moved back up into positive territory, increasing 0.2 percent in
February.
The labor market appears to be stable through February. U.S. employers added
151,000 jobs in February and 125,000 in January. The pace of hiring during the first two
months of the year is a slowdown compared with the strong gains in November and
December, but, again, that could reflect weather disruptions and seasonal adjustment
challenges. Over the past six months, employers added a solid average of 190,000 jobs
a month. The unemployment rate-4.1 percent last month-is low and has remained near
its current level since last summer.
Turning to inflation, I have been keenly aware that price increases have been painful for
American families, and I have supported policies intended to bring inflation sustainably
back to our 2 percent target. This effort has paid dividends. Inflation has come down a
long way from its peak of more than 7 percent in June 2022. Based on the consumer
price index and producer price index data for February, it is estimated that the 12-month
change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was 2.5 percent
last month. That is welcome progress, but that progress has slowed since last summer.
In certain subcategories there is evidence that inflation reaccelerated in recent months.
Importantly, while goods inflation was negative in 2024-as was the norm before the
pandemic-it has turned positive in recent months. This development is unhelpful
because goods inflation has often kept a lid on total inflation and also affects inflation
expectations. In addition to the increase in prices already captured in official data,
surveys show that consumers are expecting further increases in the near term. For
instance, both short-run and long-run inflation expectations from the Michigan survey
have climbed in recent months. According to comments from survey respondents, much
of this uncertainty appears to be tied to trade policy. I am paying close attention to the
acceleration of price increases and higher inflation expectations, especially given the
recent bout of inflation in the past few years. Given the economy's overall solid position
and the heightened level of uncertainty, I supported the Federal Open Market
Committee's (FOMC) decision last week to maintain the policy rate at its current level. I
see current policy as continuing to be restrictive and I judge that FOMC policy is well
positioned. The committee can react to new developments by holding at the current rate
for some time as we closely monitor incoming data and the cumulative effects of new
policies. I remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal while
maintaining a solid labor market. As always, I will carefully assess the incoming data,
the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering the appropriate policy
rate.
Thank you again for having me here.
1
The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my
colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
2
See Bárbara Gómez-Aguiñaga, George Foster, and Jerry I. Porras (2024), 2023 State
of Latino Entrepreneurship (PDF)
,a publication of the Stanford Latino Entrepreneurship
Initiative (Palo Alto, Calif.: Stanford Graduate School of Business, in collaboration with
the Latino Business Action Network, March).
3
See Adriana D. Kugler (2025), " Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity ," speech
delivered at the 2025 Miami Economic Forum, Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida,
February 7.
4
See Robert W. Fairlie (2024), "Indicators of Entrepreneurial Activity: 2023," working
paper, January, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4708111.
5
See Gómez-Aguiñaga, Foster, and Porras, 2023 State of Latino Entrepreneurship, in
note 2.
6
See Bureau of Labor Statistics (2025), "State Employment and Unemployment
Summary," news release, March 17. | - Latinos embody a strong entrepreneurial spirit, contributing significantly to U.S. economic growth and job creation, driven by a 57% increase in Latino-owned businesses from 2007 to 2022.
- Latino entrepreneurs are critical for productivity growth, economic expansion, and reducing inflation, with significant business formation seen in regions such as South Florida.
- Latino-owned businesses excel in adopting new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, enhancing economic contributions.
- Latinos also play a crucial role in the economy as consumers, workers, and investors, generating trillions in economic activity and making up nearly 20% of the U.S. population.
- The Latino labor force participation rate is significantly higher than the national average, helping balance the U.S. labor market by filling difficult positions.
- The growing and younger Latino population, with increasing educational attainment, will continue to support the labor force and economic growth.
- The U.S. economy is on solid footing with recent GDP growth, though some early-year economic activity showed softness due to expected corrections and weather disruptions.
- Inflation has been declining from its peak, but there's a concern about recent inflation reacceleration, especially in goods, affecting inflation expectations and necessitating cautious Fed policy.
- The Federal Open Market Committee recently maintained the policy rate, keeping it restrictive in anticipation of monitoring economic developments.
- Commitment remains strong to achieving a 2% inflation target while maintaining a robust labor market, with close attention to evolving economic data and risks.
| Adriana D Kugler | Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System | US | Member of the Board of Governors | Board Member | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250325b.htm | 2025-03-25T00:00:00 | Andrew Bailey: Growth - what does it take in today's world? | Lecture by Mr Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, at the Chancellor's Distinguished Lecture Series, The University of Leicester, Leicester, 25 March 2025. | Growth: What does it take in
today's world? - Lecture by
Andrew Bailey
Given at the Chancellor's Distinguished Lecture Series, The University of
Leicester
Published on 24 March 2025
Andrew's speech looks at economic growth and asks what it takes to increase
the rate of growth in the economy. In answering that question, Andrew covers
both the current situation in the UK and abroad, and economic history.
Speech
Thank you for inviting me to speak today. It's always a pleasure to be back in my home town,
and particularly here at Leicester University, not least because I went to school next door.
I am going to speak today about a topical subject - economic growth. The question I set
myself is, what does it take to create a sustained increase in the growth rate of the economy
in today's world? I'm going to range quite wide in answering the question, drawing in the
current situation here in the UK and the world, and some economic history too.
Economic growth is, quite simply, the rate of expansion of the size of the economy. Let me
start by explaining how it matters to the Monetary Policy Committee when we decide on the
appropriate level of interest rates to achieve our objective of price stability, the 2% inflation
target. There are two parts to why growth matters for monetary policy - the outcome and the
inputs. On the first, quite simply, low and stable inflation is the best contribution monetary
policy can make to growth in the economy. The same goes for financial stability, our other
core responsibility as the central bank, which is also a key condition for growth.
On the inputs side, growth matters because monetary policy decisions require us to assess
the inflationary consequences of the pressure on economic resources in this country. That
pressure reflects the balance between demand and supply in goods and services and labour
markets. To observe that level of pressure, we can't just look at actual national income or
output and employment. If that's all we did, we would be left saying "so what?" We have to
compare the actual position with the productive potential of the economy (the supply capacity
of the economy) and in doing so assess resource utilisation and thus the degree of pressure.
Except that, we can't observe or directly measure the supply capacity of the economy. It has
to be estimated to derive an assessment of potential national income/output. Don't worry, I'm
not going to use algebra today, but just a simple illustration: when we do those estimates, we
footnote
label actual national income/output as Y, and potential income/output as Y*.[1] When Y=Y*,
the value of goods and services produced in the economy is at the level where productive
factors or resources - labour, capital and land - are being used at a sustainable rate, and
thus we are at the level of national income/output consistent with inflation being at the target.
In fact, things are a bit more complicated, because productive potential (Y*) has both a
longrun structural dimension - an influence here is the pattern of an ageing population and what
that means for future labour supply - and a shorter run cyclical component - an influence
here is the impact of a shock like Covid on labour supply, or the war in Ukraine on energy and
food supply. On this last point, you will note that I have slipped in here that we don't live in a
closed economy - potential supply and actual demand are affected by what goes on in the
rest of the world too.
Two more points before I get off this section on definitions. First, in the MPC we spend time
working out what we make of a concept called the output gap. Put simply, it's the difference
between potential supply and actual production in the economy. It's the difference between Y
and Y*, and provides one, but only one, read on inflationary pressures. And, we have to make
this assessment looking forwards, as a forecast, because that's where the level of the interest
rate now will have its effect. We can't observe the output gap;, so we have to use all the
evidence at our disposal to form a view on it as a matter of judgement.
The second point relates to the growth rate of the economy - the growth of national income/
output. What are the components of productive potential (Y*)? I am going to keep this quite
simple and stick to two - the supply of labour, and output per unit of labour. The latter is the
simple definition of productivity - the effectiveness of the use of resources. You can
reasonably say at this point, hang on there are three factors of production in an economy:
labour, land (meaning all natural resources) and capital. Yes there are. However, it is useful to
focus on labour supply and labour productivity, but recognise that the available land and
capital supply are important determinants of labour productivity. Most standard models of
economic growth will underline the role of investment in physical and human capital (including
of course education).
Critically, there is a very direct link between productivity growth and living standards.
Investment in capital and innovation which supports productivity growth will feed through to a
growth in living standards.
So, what has been going on with the growth of potential supply in the economy in recent
times? A spoiler here - it's not a very good story. I am going to give three figures for three
time periods based on Bank staff estimates: the average annual rate of growth of potential
supply in the UK economy and the contribution to that growth rate of productivity and labour
supply. From 1990 to 2008, the average annual potential growth rate was 2.6%. Productivity
contributed 2.2pp and labour supply 0.4pp. After the financial crisis, from 2009 to 2019, the
potential growth rate fell to 1.3%pa, of which productivity contributed 0.3pp and labour supply
1.0pp. From 2020 to 2023 the potential growth rate fell further to 0.7%, with productivity
contributing 0.5pp and labour supply 0.2pp. Covid was clearly a major factor in the most
recent period. The comparable numbers for the growth of demand in the economy - actual
growth - are: 1990-2008 2.3%; 2009-2019 1.4% and 2020-2023 1.1%.
I think the point comes across clearly. The growth of potential supply has fallen, with the main
contributor to that fall being weaker productivity growth. Covid was a major factor in causing a
further fall. But it is the decade before Covid that provides a better read.
Productivity growth fell very sharply, and while the labour supply did increase, it did not offset
the fall in productivity growth. And, actual growth rates have fallen too, so that actual and
potential growth have remained broadly in line.
Moreover, in terms of living standards, an increase in labour supply does not offset a decline
in productivity growth. We can see that by looking at the rate of growth of national income per
person (GDP per capita). Between 1990 and 2008 the average annual growth rate was 1.8%.
From 2009 to 2019, the annual growth rate was 0.7%. I have not replicated the comparison
between 2020 and 2023 because 2020 was a bad year on which to start a comparison given
the impact of Covid lock-downs.
The story of growth is, I am afraid, quite clear. It has slowed markedly in the last fifteen years
or so, and this has affected the advance of living standards (both as a whole and among
groups in society). Moreover, I will add one more important point. Like almost all advanced
economies, we have a population that is on average increasing in age, and will continue to do
so. Other things equal this will over time reduce the supply of labour to the workforce.
At this point, you can reasonably ask if I can say something to cheer things up? I will have a
go, because my title today is: Growth, what does it take in today's world? To do this, I am
going to turn to history for a while, and then come back to prospects now. I am going to make
some longer-run observations on growth in the British economy, and then draw out some
points which are salient to the situation today. They also help to tackle an important question
we face today, namely is Artificial Intelligence the next big thing in terms of growth in the
economy?
Britain is credited with being the first modern industrial nation. Typically, the definition of
footnote
modern economic growth in this context is where technological progress is centre stage[2].
Recall that GDP growth per capita was 1.8% pa before the financial crisis, but only 0.7% pa
afterwards. Looked at in the longer run context, a figure of around 2.2%-2.4% pa was the
average from 1950 onwards. And, a figure of about 3⁄4% was respectable for the nineteenth
century, where the average was a bit under 1% for the period of the so-called Industrial
Revolution. All things are relative and close to 1% was a considerable step up on the
footnote
preIndustrial era[3].
Still, we are left with the conclusion that a growth rate of per capita income which disappoints
today would have looked respectable during the Industrial Revolution. What's changed? Two
things stand out. First, it looks as if the overall growth rate has been enhanced over time as
the development of institutions (public and private) and policies has provided an environment
that supports growth. This is often known as endogenous growth - the environment supports
and enhances the impact of technological progress and investment. Second, in an open
economy such as the UK a key to growth has over time become the prompt and effective
footnote
diffusion of foreign technology as well as domestic invention[4]. In other words, there is a
bigger base of innovation to draw upon.
Having made the point that things have changed in terms of growth rates since the Industrial
Revolution, I want to go back to that period to identify four salient features which I believe are
highly relevant to understanding today's environment. The four are: technological change;
energy supply; population change; and the role of trade. These are all big subjects in their
own right, so my treatment of them is going to be quite sparing. The main point I want to draw
out is that each of these issues was important in the process of industrialisation, and each of
them remains important in today's world.
Let me start by attempting to define what is meant by the term Industrial Revolution? A lot of
ink has been used on this one. I am going to borrow a definition from the economic historian
Tony Wrigley:
"The distinguishing feature of the industrial revolution which has transformed the lives of the
inhabitants of industrialised societies has been a large and sustained rise in real income per
head. Without such a change the bulk of all income would necessarily have continued to be
spent on food and the bulk of the labour force would therefore have continued to be employed
upon the land .....only when output growth exceeds population increase substantially and
footnote
consistently, can there be grounds for supposing that an industrial revolution is in train[5]".
The essence of the definition is that technological change appeared to break the tight link
between the economy's endowments of factors of production (land, capital and labour) and
income, a break that was not expected to occur by classical economists such as Adam Smith
footnote
who did not envisage sustained growth[6]. This technological change did not happen as
quickly as the word 'revolution' would suggest. Moreover, it didn't happen evenly over time
and certainly not evenly across the economy, and that too has led to a lot of ink being used to
describe and debate the meaning of the term Industrial Revolution.
What are the lessons of this for today? I think there are two lessons. First, if we think we are
more or less using the factors of production fully today - if Y* is near to the production frontier
made possible by the state of current technology, then we will need some quite large
technological advance to break again the link that Adam Smith and the classical economists
described - in other words, to push the frontier out. I am going to come back to whether AI is
that technology. Second, even if the link is broken, it will take time to materialise and spread
across the economy. This is a long term process. To be clear though, this does not mean that
we can expect no growth without a major breakthrough on technology. Growth rates will go up
and down for many reasons. But a substantial and sustained increase in growth most
probably does need this breakthrough to happen, as has been case in the past.
Another way of capturing this issue is to ask what has caused the slowdown in productivity
growth evident in all the major economies - not just the UK - over the last 15 to 20 years.
There are two theories on this whodunnit. The first is that it is a consequence of the Global
Financial Crisis.
The second is that since the start of the slowdown seems to pre-date the GFC it is due to a
trend decline in technological innovation as the ICT revolution of the internet, faster
semiconductors etc., started to slow (and what matters here is the rate of increase of innovation,
not the level of it). The evidence seems to provide rather more support for the second
footnote
explanation, but both could have been at work.[7]
My second salient feature concerns the supply of energy. To return to Tony Wrigley's work for
a moment, he made the point that the Industrial Revolution involved the discovery and
application of a "method of deriving mechanical energy from a mineral source on a substantial
scale" and an escape from "the problems associated with dependence on organic raw
footnote
materials"[8]. Put simply it was a move from burning wood fires to coal burning steam engines.
There are two lessons here for today that I want to draw out briefly. First, the steam engine is
credited as the first example of what is called a General Purpose Technology (GPT). In other
words, it enabled widespread innovation across many parts of the economy. The economic
historian Nick Crafts identified two subsequent such GPTs, electricity from around the turn of
the nineteenth to twentieth centuries, and Information and Communication Technology from
around the 1970s-1980s. Crafts argued that the contribution from each of these GPTs has
grown over time - each one has contributed more to income growth than its predecessors.
This is grounds for optimism. According to his estimates, by 2006 the cumulative productivity
gain from ICT had matched that of steam over the roughly century to 1910 suggesting that the
progress of technology has become more rapid over time, and that we have become better at
putting GPTs to work. Reasons for this improvement include educational advances, better
financing and government policies to support R&D.
The second lesson for today from the energy feature of the Industrial Revolution is that we are
now seeing the move away from mineral based energy towards so-called renewable sources.
This is at the heart of the climate debate. The economics would suggest that it is then a
matter of pricing these sources to ensure that we capture the so-called externalities - the
good and bad effects that come from each of them.
Opens
Page 7
My third important feature is population, and labour as a factor of production. Alongside a
revolution in technology starting in the second half of the eighteenth century, the UK
experienced an unprecedented increase in population which was not directly linked to the
development of industrial technology. By the 1860s, the population was more than 3.5 times
its level in the 1730s, mainly due to an increased birth rate. From 1780 to 1870 the annual
growth rate of the population was around 1.2%. Bear in mind that from 1990 to 2008, the
annual growth rate of the potential labour supply was 0.4%, while in the decade after the
financial crisis it was 1%. To sustain a higher growth rate of population for a century in the
footnote
earlier period was impressive.[9]
When we compare the story of the Industrial Revolution on labour supply with recent times,
we can be rather more granular on the modern period. There is a difference between the
growth rate of the population and the growth rate of the potential labour supply, but we have
the latter calculated only for the modern period, along with its components. Between 1998 and
2007 annual potential labour supply growth of 0.7% was made up of an equivalent growth in
population, slightly higher participation in the labour force, slightly lower unemployment, and a
fall in average hours worked. In the next decade we saw stronger growth in potential labour
supply made up of a similar growth in the population, very little growth in the participation rate,
a further fall in unemployment and a rise in average hours worked. The subsequent Covid
period up to 2023 saw very little growth in potential labour supply, but a faster growth in
population offset by a fall in participation, slightly higher unemployment and flat average
hours. Population growth has been the largest recent driver of labour supply growth, with a
well-known story on net migration as the major contributor, on which to be clear I offer no
value judgement. Meanwhile, labour force participation has fallen, meaning that more people
are not seeking to work, though we have some doubts about the data here.
Behind these recent trends is the larger story of the impact of a population which is on
average ageing, as is the case in almost all the industrialised countries. Over recent history,
the effects of ageing have been offset by increases in labour force participation within age
groups, particularly as women remained in the labour force longer, including as the female
state pension age rose to equal that of males. But this offsetting mechanism seems to be
coming to a natural end.
The conclusion I draw from all of this is that whereas the Industrial Revolution was enabled by
a parallel increase in the labour supply, we cannot count on this to the same degree today,
even if we do see a return to the more prevailing level of participation pre-Covid. If so, that
puts more emphasis on productivity and technological change as the driver of growth to
come.
My fourth salient feature is trade and the openness of economies, another big one, and very
much a subject of the moment. Let's go back to Adam Smith. One of Smith's important
insights can be described by his observation that if a foreign country can supply us with a
through trade will increase competition, productivity and growth[10].
Nineteenth century economic growth had its origin in technological change, but as the century
went on it was reinforced by trade expansion supported by falling transport costs. As the
economist Robert Lucas put it, "the evidence on trade and growth suggests that the rate of
diffusion of technology depends on economic interactions on trade". He added that "economic
growth is poorly described as the production of more and more of the same stuff", and that
"physical capital accumulation alone does not suffice to transform a static economy into a
footnote
perpetually growing one."[11] Indeed.
On its own the technological change would not have supported the full Industrial Revolution
without a major growth in trade which secured a supply of imported raw materials - e.g.
cotton - and markets overseas in which to sell the finished goods. Britain's move to free trade
after 1846, and the subsequent pattern of tariff reductions in Western Europe was a logical
extension of comparative advantage for relatively land scarce but labour and capital abundant
economies.
The result of all of this activity was a rapidly developed Atlantic Economy covering countries
on both sides of the ocean which had a growing concentration on manufacturing goods. But it
is overly simplistic to conclude that the story was a universal generalisation of industrialisation
fostered by and fostering the rise of free trade. The story was not that simple. Protection and
tariffs were a feature of the more labour scarce New World (notably the USA) in the late
nineteenth century, and by the end of the century there were wider signs of a protectionist
footnote
backlash[12]. From 1914 to around 1950 the world retreated into autarky. There was a
backlash against globalisation before the 1st World War began in 1914. Nineteenth century
industrialisation had created two distributional consequences: within some countries, for
instance in the US where tariffs favoured industrial interests; and between the Atlantic
economy and much of the rest of the world, with this second effect becoming known as the
footnote
Great Divergence[13].
After 1950, trade and openness revived, with a reduction in tariff barriers which was more a
product of inter-governmental agreement on a multilateral basis. Over the modern period of
time as more countries industrialised, trade flows have increasingly involved the exchange of
manufactured goods, including the exchange of goods during the production process. Late
nineteenth century trade created income inequalities between countries in the Atlantic
Economy and the rest of the world and within countries. In contrast, recent trade
developments have started to close those gaps, most notably between China and the
traditional industrialised economies.
Income distribution matters when thinking about the relationships between trade and growth.
Associated with this point is the degree to which the interaction of trade and growth upends
peoples and communities. Recent quite high profile US work on trade policy has made the
following point drawing on a comparison with nineteenth century Britain:-
"In the United Kingdom ..... the repeal of the protectionist Corn Laws prompted agricultural
workers to flee the countryside for industrialising urban areas where factory jobs were waiting.
By contrast, the American factory workers who were displaced beginning in the 1990s either
footnote
had nowhere to go or ended-up working in low-skill, low paying service jobs."[14]
I can trace my own family in Norfolk back to the sixteenth century, but by 1886 they had
moved to Dudley in the Black Country, via a one generation stopover in Suffolk. I have no
idea whether "flee to a waiting job" is the right description for their move as they have left no
commentary behind.
That said, my family seem to fit the bill for nineteenth century Britain. I should say that it is
therefore due to the Industrial Revolution that I was not always popular at school. The reason
is that I am a West Bromwich Albion supporter because of the family connection to Dudley,
and not a Leicester City supporter, though I try to make up for it as a Leicester Tigers and
County Cricket supporter.
Robert Lighthizer, who was the US Trade Representative in the first Trump Administration,
goes on to make a key point in this area, namely that his concern is a country, in this case
footnote
China, running "huge trade surpluses with the entire world year after year for decades"[15].
The key point is that in the contemporary world, unlike the nineteenth century, the political
economy is not well suited to such persistent trade imbalances with their consequent effects.
If that is too subtle, another way to put it is that such a system could be sustained in a world of
empires and colonies, but no readily now.
But, two things follow from this. First, Adam Smith and the classical economists were not
wrong to make the link between trade and growth. Second, a cause of the contemporary
imbalance is at least in part weak domestic demand in a number of countries, of which China
is an important one - i.e. more of China's national income should be spent by its citizens on
their own consumption. There are, therefore, also offsetting positions in other countries. We
need effective multilateral processes that support getting us to more balanced outcomes.
This is the issue today at the heart of the pressure to return to higher levels of tariffs. To quote
Robert Lucas again, until the Industrial Revolution two hundred years ago, the forces of
economics:
"sufficed to maintain a rough equality of incomes across societies (not, of course, within
societies) around the world. The industrial revolution overrode these forces for equality for an
amazing two centuries. That is why we call it a "revolution". But they have reasserted
themselves in the last half of the twentieth century, and I think the restoration of inter-society
income equality will be one of the major economic events of the century to come. Of course,
this does not entail the undoing of the industrial revolution. In 1800 all societies were equally
poor and stagnant. If by 2100 we are equally rich and growing, this will not mean that we
footnote
haven't got anywhere![16]"
But we have to caveat that with some other wise words, namely that "(s)upporters of free
trade in tangible goods have long recognised that its net benefits to countries typically are
footnote
distributed unevenly, creating domestic winners and losers"[17].
Let me draw the history together and put it into the context of achieving sustained growth in
the world we face today. The Industrial Revolution led to the so-called Great Divergence,
which created an industrialised Atlantic Economy. This transformation was enabled by very
open trade in goods, capital flows across the world and likewise unprecedented migration of
people (mainly within the Atlantic Economy from Europe to North America). This system fell
apart in the first half of the Twentieth Century, with two world wars and the Great Depression.
After the Second World War, up to the 1970s, the world economy was rebuilt under a system
that featured strong capital and exchange rate controls, a gradual loosening of the trade
controls that had increased between the wars, and greater freedom to pursue domestic
policies to avoid the inter-war experience of mass unemployment. After the 1970s this system
broke down and the world economy moved on to an era of free trade, capital flows that looked
much more like the late nineteenth century, flexible exchange rates, and even more emphasis
on independent national monetary and fiscal policies to tackle domestic situations.
It is in this setting that since the 1990s we have seen a further acceleration of the end of the
Great Divergence, though not evenly. But, the evidence indicates that this system can lead to
persistent large trade and current account imbalances. And here, it is persistence that
matters. These imbalances are at the heart of what features so prominently in the news today
- the issue, once again, of tariffs.
You will, I hope be pleased to hear that I am not going to give a further lecture today on this
subject. But I will make three important points. First, I agree with work by the IMF which
emphasises that persistent imbalances are largely driven by domestic macroeconomic forces
footnote
- home grown persistent surpluses and deficits in spending and saving[18]. Second, I agree
with Lighthizer that free trade is a force for prosperity if it rests on a level playing field, and
that the trading system served the world economy well in the period of post-war adjustment
up to at least the 1990s. But it has come under strain since then, and most recently we have
been forcefully reminded that trade policy has to include a national security dimension. These
two points - domestic macroeconomic forces and trade policy - are not incompatible. They sit
together. My final point here is that to solve these issues we need authorities to come
together and strengthen the rules of engagement in a multilateral setting.
Let me finish on the subject of AI. I hope I have established the basic argument that links
together technological progress, trade and economic growth. I have also argued that we face
other headwinds which make achieving stronger growth through that set of linkages more
challenging but also even more necessary.
Is AI the next General Purpose Technology (GPT)? A GPT has the potential to be used
across a wide part of the economy, like electricity for instance. It is not just a short-lived boost
to productivity growth but rather a significant change which keeps improving and lowering
costs and makes innovation across the economy easier. It should have a significant and
prolonged positive impact on productivity growth, and will itself create new ideas, new
products and new ways of doing things. AI appears to me to have that potential, and so it
could over time lift growth rates and per capita national income.
In doing so, it should increase the productivity of labour, by both complementing the skills of
labour and substituting for labour in some situations. In doing so, it will lead to the re-design of
the content of jobs. Again, we can look to the Industrial Revolution for clues here. And, there
is a particular Leicester dimension to this piece of history. Probably the most famous
resistance movement to such technological change was the Luddites of the early nineteenth
century.
Named after the mythical character - or at least unidentified - of Ned Ludd, they were largely
made up of framework knitters who resisted the move to mechanised knitting machinery.
Leicestershire was one of the centres of Luddite activity. Indeed, very sadly, a number of
footnote
Luddites were hanged outside Leicester Gaol, almost in sight of where we are today[19].
There was no doubt transitional pain and suffering at the time, and there were not the public
institutions and policies of support that we have today. But the Industrial Revolution did not
lead to mass unemployment, and I do not believe this will be the case with AI. Moreover, as I
said earlier, a big difference from the early nineteenth century to today is that we now have a
population that is on average ageing, and the need to complement human labour with
technology to support the productive potential of the economy (Y*) is more pressing. So, I am
therefore of the view that we must facilitate the growth of AI as the most likely General
Purpose Technology which can move the needle on growth in the economy. In doing so, we
must also invest in new skills in the labour force- in our human capital.
To conclude, we face a necessary challenge to raise the potential growth rate of the
economy. There are strong headwinds. The combination of technology and trade remains an
essential route to increasing productivity. Adam Smith's basic tenet is as true today as it was
two hundred and more years ago. Growth also requires strong institutions and public policies
to provide a supportive environment. Education and universities are part of that story - to
create and encourage the development of human capital so, too is a strong multilateral
international institutional framework for economy policy, including trade policy. And, central
banks are important too, with our strong commitment to monetary and financial stability.
Thank you.
I would like to thank Thomas Aedy, Jamie Bell, Craig Botham, Sarah Breeden, Maren
Froemel, Karen Jude, Catherine Mann, Huw Pill, Martin Seneca, Krishan Shah and Fergal
Shortall for their help in the preparation of these remarks.
1. It is reasonable to wonder, why Y as the letter to denote income/output? The earliest source I know of is a letter written
by Keynes in 1937 to a fellow economist, Sir John Hicks: "On one point of detail. I regret that you use the symbol I for
income. One has to choose, of course, between using it for income or investment. But after trying both, I believe it is
easier to use Y for income and I for investment". So, there we are - it doesn't explain why Y, but the great man's view
has stuck.
2. Simon Kuznets: Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread; Yale University Press, 1966
3. S N Broadberry, Campbell B, Klein A, Overton, M and van Leeuwen B: British Economic Growth, 1270-1870; Cambridge
University Press, 2015.
4. N F R Crafts, Forging Ahead, Falling Behind and Fighting Back: British Economic Growth from the Industrial Revolution
to the Financial Crisis; Cambridge University Press, 2018.
5. E. A Wrigley, Continuity, Chance and Change: The Character of the Industrial Revolution in England; (Cambridge
University Press 1988) p9-11.
6. The classical economists believed in the stability of income levels not growth rates. They drew on the work of Thomas
Malthus to conclude that economic growth following technological innovation would lead to an increase in population but
not in income per person.
7. John Fernald, Robert Inklaar and Dimitroje Ruzic, "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common
Shocks or Common Trends". Review of Income and Wealth, 2024, Vol 71, Issue 1.
8. Wrigley, P78, 82.
9. Gregory Clark; "What Made Britannia Great? How Much of the Rise | - Low and stable inflation, alongside financial stability, are crucial for economic growth; central banks play a key role in maintaining these conditions.
- Growth is influenced by the balance between actual output and the economy's productive potential, which consists of labor supply and productivity.
- The UK has seen a decline in potential growth, primarily due to weak productivity growth post-financial crisis, further exacerbated by COVID-19.
- Historically, growth was supported by technological advances, effective institutional environments, and the diffusion of foreign technology.
- Technological change, energy supply, population dynamics, and trade have historically been key drivers of economic growth and remain relevant today.
- There has been a noticeable slowdown in productivity growth globally due to factors like the Global Financial Crisis and reduced technological innovation.
- Energy transitions — from coal in the Industrial Revolution to renewables today — have and will continue to play significant roles in economic transitions.
- A larger aging population and slower growth in labor supply necessitate a stronger reliance on productivity and technology for future growth.
- Trade has historically contributed to growth by enhancing technology diffusion and competition, despite contemporary challenges like persistent trade imbalances.
- Addressing trade imbalances requires international cooperation and a balanced approach to domestic and global economic policies.
- Artificial Intelligence holds potential as a General Purpose Technology, likely to enhance productivity, reshape labor markets, and spur economic growth.
- Investment in skills and education is essential to harness the growth potential of technologies like AI.
- Strong institutions, public policies, and multilateral cooperation are necessary to foster a supportive environment for sustained economic growth. | Andrew Bailey | Bank of England | GB | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250326e.htm | 2025-03-26T00:00:00 | Sanjay Malhotra: Address - Private Sector Collaborative Forum of the Financial Action Task Force | Address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the Private Sector Collaborative Forum of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), Mumbai, 26 March 2025. | Sanjay Malhotra: Address - Private Sector Collaborative Forum of the
Financial Action Task Force
Address by Mr Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the Private
Sector Collaborative Forum of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), Mumbai, 26
March 2025.
* * *
It is a pleasure to be here at the Private Sector Collaborative Forum (PSCF) 2025 of the
Financial Action Task Force. I am happy to note that this is the first time that the forum
is being held in India. I thank FATF for giving us this opportunity. In my previous role as
the Secretary in the Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance, Government of India,
I had the opportunity of being closely associated with the FATF during our mutual
evaluation last year.
About FATF
Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the standard setting body for illicit financing has
come a long way since its establishment in 1989. Over the years, it has evolved from an
organisation with only 16 members to a global forum with 40 members. Through the
1
FATF-styled regional bodies , its reach is even wider. The standards developed by
FATF are used by over 200 jurisdictions to combat money laundering (ML), terrorism
financing (TF) and proliferation financing. The implementation of the standards has
played an important role in strengthening the global financial system and making the
world a safer place.
India's Mutual Evaluation by FATF
India accords immense importance to Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering
the Financing of Terrorism (CFT). Last year, India underwent the mutual evaluation by
the FATF. India was placed in the 'regular follow-up' category, a distinction shared by
2
only a few other G20 countries . This is a recognition of our effective AML and CFT
framework. It demonstrates our commitment to AML and CFT. This is a result of many
years of building and continuously improving and strengthening the financial system of
our country.
This was possible due to the collaborative efforts of all stakeholders, led by the
Government of India including financial entities and designated non-financial
businesses and professions in the private and public sector, regulators, and the state
governments. The private sector plays a vital role in keeping the financial systems
secure. Their role in implementing due diligence procedures, conducting robust risk
assessments, monitoring transactions, and reporting suspicious activities is critical for
preventing the abuse of the financial system. They identify suspicious activities and
help government agencies in destroying illicit financial networks.
Strong public-private partnerships form the bedrock for safeguarding the integrity of the
financial system. In India, we recognize the importance of close cooperation between
public and private sector stakeholders in achieving these goals. Reserve Bank of India,
as the regulator and supervisor of a large segment of the financial system in India has
diligently and consistently worked towards building and ensuring implementation of a
strong AML and CFT framework in this segment of the financial system, in line with
FATF recommendations. The Reserve Bank has taken several initiatives to enhance
cooperation and coordination with various stakeholders. Similarly, the Financial
3
Intelligence Unit (FIU)-India has also set up FPAC , a public-private cooperation forum
for facilitating closer interaction and collaboration. It has also supported the setting up of
4
ARIFAC - a cross sectoral forum for the private sector reporting entities to collaborate
among themselves.
It is a result of these collaborative efforts that we have been able to build and
demonstrate a robust and resilient AML and CFT framework. I compliment all the
stakeholders, especially, the regulated entities in the financial sector as well as the
designated non-financial businesses and professions for the successful mutual
evaluation.
However, as all of you are aware, the threats from money laundering and terror
financing to the national and global financial systems are continuously evolving and
becoming more sophisticated. This is primarily due to technological advancements. In
order to effectively counter these threats, we need to continue the close cooperation
among various stakeholders - government agencies, financial entities in both the public
and private sectors, civil society, and others.
The mutual evaluation process was rigorous and detailed. While providing us with
valuable insights into our strengths, it has highlighted some areas of improvement in
our AML-CFT framework. We are determined to further strengthen our financial system
to deter and combat illicit financial activities taking into consideration the
recommendations made during the evaluation. We will continue to strive for continuous
improvement in this regard.
Some thoughts on the Agenda for PSCF 2025
I am told that yesterday's sessions were very engaging and produced lively
discussions. Looking at the agenda for today and tomorrow, I am confident that the
deliberations on contemporary topics such as evolving AML-CFT landscape, financial
inclusion & humanitarian channels, risk-based approach to supervision, digitalization &
information sharing, beneficial ownership and countering of proliferation financing, will
also be exciting. Let me outline some of my thoughts for the forum on these areas.
First, while we all continue to make our financial systems safe and secure against
money laundering and terror financing, we as policy makers need to be mindful that our
measures are not over-zealous and do not stifle legitimate activities and investments.
You would appreciate that multiple laws and rules, each with their own level of
granularity cast a high level of burden of compliance on the regulated financial service
providers. This is relevant in the context of AML-CFT too. Therefore, we need to have
laws and regulations which, with surgical precision, target only the illegitimate and illicit,
rather than use them as blunt tools which unintentionally hurt even the honest.
Similarly, even while implementing the legal framework and regulations, we need to
keep in mind the impact on persons and businesses. Risk-based approach is
recommended in this regard. But let us keep in mind that this is only a step forward in
reducing compliance burden. Let us appreciate that it is not the ultimate solution, as any
risk-based approach is not perfect; it would have false positives and false negatives.
We need to continuously refine and improve our risk assessment models to make them
robust.
To make these improvements, we need to improve the quality of our data and harness
emerging technologies. This will help improve screening of transactions and detection
of suspicious activities thereby reducing false positives and false negatives.
Considering the evolving landscape in the area of money laundering resulting from
changing customer behaviour and evolving products and services, we need to
continuously augment AML risk assessment framework and make appropriate system
enhancements on a regular basis after assessing the impact of ML and other risks. The
focus has to also be on understanding the latest trends and developments in the
financial world that can be exploited by criminals and accordingly develop tools and
enabling frameworks that will allow us to detect suspicious transactions and activities
early and take pre-emptive action. With the adoption of new technological tools and
models, I am sure that AML-CFT risk assessments can be further fine-tuned. I would
urge you all to discuss and share best practices in identification, mitigation and
supervision of AML-CFT risks. This will not only help to reduce compliance burden on
the Regulated Entities but also result in optimal allocation of supervisory resources.
While India has made remarkable progress in financial inclusion, we need to ensure
that we continue to widen and deepen it. The discussions on FATF standards to
promote financial inclusion need to find answers to the challenge of aligning financial
inclusion and financial integrity, especially for the developing economies. It must be
ensured that regulations do not create unintended barriers to financial inclusion. We
need to be mindful of customer rights and convenience while fulfilling the due diligence
requirements. I am happy to note that the amendments to Recommendation 1 and its
interpretive note under the Mexican presidency intend to foster and promote financial
inclusion without compromising on financial integrity. Similar approach is needed to
extend access of financial channels for supporting humanitarian aid.
In recent years, digitalisation has been increasingly applied to customer onboarding and
customer due diligence (CDD) processes. India has made huge strides in this regard
too. The digital KYC and video KYC are shining examples of this. The Central KYC
Records Registry (CKYCR) with more than one billion records is another example,
which has the potential of ushering in a new era of customer onboarding by making it
easier and seamless not only for customers but also for regulated entities to perform
customer identification and due diligence. I am told there is a separate session to
deliberate on the state of play of technical solutions in customer due diligence area. The
discussions could be helpful in further enhancing the capability and utility of CKYCR
manifold.
Further, during the process of CDD, reporting entities collect a large amount of data
from the customers. Moreover, there are requirements of sharing of information with
Financial Intelligence Units, law enforcement agencies and data registries leading to
concerns regarding data protection and sharing of information without consent. India
has recently enacted a law for Digital Personal Data Protection. Exchange of
experiences from different jurisdictions will help us in better implementing the law in our
country.
Another important area which needs discussion is the travel rule. In today's world, fast
payment systems are revolutionizing financial access and deepening financial inclusion.
Developing countries like India have made huge progress in making digital payments
accessible, affordable, and convenient. While card networks have helped developed
economies in improving payment systems, fast payment systems have assisted
Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) leapfrog in this area. We have
also enabled cross border payments using fast payment systems with a few countries.
We will continue to work towards fulfilling our commitment to the effective
implementation of the next phase of G20 roadmap towards inclusive cross-border
payments by 2027. In this context, the ongoing discussions on FATF Recommendation
16 (R.16), known as the travel rule, assume importance. To meet the G20 objective of
making cross-border payments faster, cheaper, more transparent and more inclusive,
while maintaining their safety and security, it would be desirable to make the travel rule
technology-neutral.
Lastly, discussions regarding combating proliferation financing and sanctions evasion
need to answer questions related to identification of products and services which are
most vulnerable to exploitation and the mitigation of the risks related to such products.
This forum can discuss the best practices as well as challenges in this regard.
Conclusion
To conclude, I would like to stress that through our collaborative efforts, we can
safeguard the trust that underpins the global financial framework. Together, let us
continue to collaborate and innovate in building a financial ecosystem that is not only
safe and secure but also fast, convenient, accessible and affordable. Let us build
financial systems that not only thwart the attempts of money laundering, terror financing
and proliferation financing, but also support financial inclusion, encourage innovation,
and facilitate economic growth. In the end, I wish the forum very fruitful and productive
deliberations.
Thank you.
1
In addition to its own 40 members, FATF is also supported by nine FATF-styled
regional bodies (FSRBs).
2
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2056773
3
FIU-India Initiative for Partnership in AML/CFT(FPAC), a public-private partnership
(PPP) framework, was launched in January 2022, to facilitate collaboration between
FIU-India and other stakeholders in the AML/CFT domain.
4
Alliance of Reporting Entities in India for AML/CFT (ARIFAC) is a private-private
partnership initiative amongst reporting entities in India belonging to multiple sectors to
facilitate information sharing, development of knowledge products, training programmes
and certifications. | - Gov. Sanjay Malhotra emphasizes the critical role of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in combating money laundering (ML), terrorism financing (TF), and proliferation financing, highlighting its global reach and standards used by over 200 jurisdictions.
- India places significant importance on AML and CFT, having been placed in the 'regular follow-up' category in its mutual evaluation by FATF, a distinction among G20 countries.
- Strong public-private partnerships are vital for protecting financial systems. The Reserve Bank of India and Financial Intelligence Unit-India have been instrumental in implementing a robust AML and CFT framework through cooperation with various stakeholders.
- Technological advancements present evolving threats to financial systems; thus, continued collaboration among stakeholders and improvements in the AML-CFT framework are necessary.
- Emphasis on risk-based approach in regulations to avoid undue burden on legitimate activities while maintaining AML-CFT goals.
- Enhancing data quality and leveraging emerging technologies are crucial for better transaction screening and detecting suspicious activities.
- The need for continuous refinement of risk assessment models and understanding financial trends to prevent criminal exploitation was highlighted.
- Promoting financial inclusion is important, and regulations should avoid creating barriers. Consideration of customer rights and convenience is vital in this process.
- Digitalization in customer onboarding, with examples such as digital and video KYC, and the Central KYC Records Registry, are noted as significant advancements.
- Concerns regarding data protection during customer due diligence and information sharing were acknowledged, with recent enactment of a Digital Personal Data Protection law in India.
- The travel rule is important for fast payment systems, and achieving inclusive cross-border payments remains a goal. The desire to make the travel rule technology-neutral was expressed.
- Discussions on combating proliferation financing and sanctions evasion should focus on identifying vulnerable products and mitigating related risks.
- Malhotra concludes with an emphasis on collaboration and innovation to build a financial system that supports both security and inclusivity while fostering economic growth. | Sanjay Malhotra | Reserve Bank of India | IN | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250401b.htm | 2025-03-27T00:00:00 | Claudia Buch: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament | Introductory statement by Prof Claudia Buch, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Brussels, 27 March 2025. | SPEECH
Hearing of the Committee on Economic and
Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Introductory statement by Claudia Buch, Chair of the Supervisory
Board of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and
Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Brussels, 27 March 2025
It is my pleasure to report on the activities of ECB Banking Supervision and present our Annual Report for
2024, which is being published today. Last year marked the tenth anniversary of the Single Supervisory
Mechanism, which was established in 2014 with a clear mandate to contribute to the safety and
soundness of banks. More than 15 years after the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt
crisis, Europe can look back on a decade of financial stability. This is a crucial foundation for the real
economy and contributes to the competitiveness of European firms.
Financial crises have occurred repeatedly throughout history, driven by excessive risk taking, insufficient
regulation and weak supervision. They come at enormous economic, social, political and fiscal costs that
1 ]
can persist for many years.[
To mitigate both the likelihood and the impact of financial crises, a comprehensive package of banking
sector reforms has been implemented. Impact assessments show that these reforms have made the
banking sector more resilient and that the benefits outweigh potential unintended side effects on lending or
2 ]
growth.[
These benefits are clearly visible in Europe. The European banking sector now has solid capital and
3 ]
liquidity positions.[ For significant institutions, the aggregate Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at
15.7% in the third quarter of 2024. The aggregate leverage ratio remained broadly stable at 5.8%. Banks
adjusted well to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, with an aggregate liquidity coverage ratio
of 158% in the third quarter of 2024. In 2024 bank profitability continued to benefit from the increase in
interest rates observed since mid-2022.
Banks' asset quality remains solid, although weaker economic growth and higher interest rates may
increase risks. Overall, the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans remains at 2.3%, well below the
4
level observed ten years ago.[ ]From a sectoral perspective, banks' exposures to small and medium-sized
enterprises and to commercial real estate have become riskier, in part owing to the sensitivity of these
exposures to higher interest rates.
Looking ahead, European banks face strong headwinds, requiring continued efforts to ensure financial
and operational resilience. Geopolitical uncertainties, climate and nature-related risks and cyber risks can
have severe negative impacts on banks. Addressing these risks remains a priority for ECB Banking
Supervision.
Let me give you some examples.
Generally, we are monitoring how banks are addressing their exposure to geopolitical risk, which affects
5 ]
them through all traditional risk categories.[ Operational risk is one focus area. Both the incidence and
the severity of cyberattacks on banks have increased. We are working with the banks to strengthen their
6 ]
preparedness, drawing on the results of a cyber resilience stress test we conducted last year.[ We have
also adjusted our supervisory framework to prepare for the implementation of the Digital Operational
7 ]
Resilience Act (DORA), which has been in effect since January 2025.[ DORA is strengthening the IT
security of financial entities and reducing risks related to outsourcing.
Moreover, reliable information systems are essential for both banks and supervisors to monitor risks
effectively. Yet, many banks still face shortcomings in their internal information systems. To address this,
8 ]
we published a guide to clarify supervisory expectations.[
As regards climate and nature-related risks, banks have made notable strides. We continue to monitor
banks' progress towards establishing reliable risk management and governance arrangements. These
need to be informed by high-quality, client- and asset-specific data. Robust and efficient sustainability-
related reporting requirements for the corporate sector are thus key to identify and manage financial risks.
These are just a few examples of how the current framework has allowed European banking supervision
to enhance bank resilience and to shift focus to new drivers of risks. This is a significant achievement.
At the same time, European banking supervision remains committed to reducing undue complexities in the
current framework that hinder our ability to ensure that banks remain safe and sound. Clearly,
simplification cannot come at the expense of resilience. The existing framework is effective in maintaining
financial stability without impeding growth. But there is scope for improvement in three areas: supervision,
reporting and regulation.
First, in order to deliver our supervision as efficiently and effectively as possible, we are reforming the
Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process. These reforms were decided on in 2024 and will be fully
phased in next year. They will allow us to focus more on relevant risks and to ensure that deficiencies are
9 ]
swiftly remediated by the banks.[ In parallel, we are exploring ways to improve our administrative
procedures. Currently, we are piloting fast-track approvals of risk transfer in securitisation, while
maintaining a strong focus on relevant risks.
Second, there is scope to reduce reporting costs by harmonising reporting schemes, improving
information systems and enhancing information sharing. Improvements in banks' information systems
would pay off in two ways - they would enhance the banks' internal risk management and reduce the
10 ]
costs of responding to supervisory requests.[
Generally, the ECB welcomes the political agreement that was reached by co-legislators on better data
11 ]
sharing in financial services.[ In this spirit, we are working on several initiatives. The Integrated
Reporting Framework (IReF) will integrate the Eurosystem's statistical and prudential reporting for banks.
We are collaborating with the European Banking Authority through the Joint Bank Reporting Committee,
12 ]
which was established in 2024, to reduce reporting costs, in close cooperation with the industry.[
Notably, a Memorandum of Understanding between ECB Banking Supervision and the recently
established EU Authority for Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AMLA)
will lay down the principles governing cooperation, including the exchange of information. Generally, we
now have more than 40 supervisory Memoranda of Understanding with authorities around the globe, in
13 ]
addition to cooperation arrangements such as supervisory colleges.[
Third, a potential simplification of regulation must not be mistaken for deregulation. Lowering standards
would ultimately leave risks unaddressed and may incentivise high-risk practices with little benefit to the
real economy or the resilience of banks. To ensure that simplification does not come at the expense of
resilience, any discussion on changes in regulatory standards should be guided by sound evidence and
cost-benefit analyses. While the ECB is not the regulatory authority, we stand ready to provide our
supervisory expertise to these discussions. Assessing the impact of the current regulatory framework and
exploring potential enhancements needs to be aimed at strengthening its effectiveness without
compromising financial stability objectives.
Let me summarise. Europe needs to maintain a strong supervisory and regulatory framework to ensure
financial stability, protect the real economy in times of stress and keep deposits safe - especially in light of
the current economic uncertainty. Low risk premia, despite heightened geopolitical risks, increase the
14 ]
vulnerability of the financial sector to adverse shocks and global spillovers.[
We need resilient banks - both financially and operationally - that can withstand shocks and continue
delivering their services to the real economy. Weakening prudential and supervisory standards may harm
the competitive position of European firms. Instead, removing national barriers to the Single Market and
15 ]
implementing structural policies can promote growth and innovation.[ The capital markets union has the
potential to harmonise national rules that impose costs on cross-border activities for banks, too.
Moreover, we need improvements to the crisis management and deposit insurance framework to better
deal with bank failures and protect depositors more effectively. Completing the banking union, including
with a European deposit insurance scheme, remains a key priority to strengthen financial stability.
1.
The average output loss resulting from financial crises (including banking crises and other types of
financial crisis) has been approximately 8.5%, and the median output loss amounts to 6-7%. See Lo Duca,
M. et al. (2017/updated 2021), " A new database for financial crises in European countries - ECB/ESRB
EU crises database ", Occasional Paper Series, No 194, ECB, July.
2.
See Bank for International Settlements (2022), " Evaluation of the impact and efficacy of the Basel III
reforms ", December; the Financial Stability Board's overview of evaluations of the effects of the G20
financial regulatory reforms ; and the Bank for International Settlement's " Financial Regulation
Assessment: Meta Exercise (FRAME) ".
3.
ECB (2025), ECB Annual Report on supervisory activities 2024 , 27 March.
4.
Non-performing loan ratios including cash balances at central banks stood at 1.9% in the second quarter
of 2024, compared with more than 7% in 2015.
5.
Buch, C. (2024), " Global rifts and financial shifts: supervising banks in an era of geopolitical instability ",
keynote speech at the eighth European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) annual conference on "New
Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy", 26 September.
6.
See ECB (2024), " IT and cybersecurity risks - key observations in 2024 ", 13 November; ECB (2024),
" Evolving IT and cybersecurity risks ", Supervision Newsletter, 13 November; and ECB (2024), " ECB
concludes cyber resilience stress test ", press release, 26 July.
7.
See, for instance, ECB (2025), " Outsourcing trends in the banking sector ", Supervision Newsletter,
19 February; and ECB (2024), " Public consultation on the Guide on outsourcing cloud services to cloud
service providers ", 3 June.
8.
ECB (2024), Guide on effective risk data aggregation and risk reporting , May.
9.
See Buch, C. (2024), " Reforming the SREP: an important milestone towards more efficient and effective
supervision in a new risk environment ", The Supervision Blog, ECB, 28 May.
10.
See ECB (2025), " Sound risk data reporting: key to better decision-making and resilience ", Supervision
Newsletter, 19 February.
11.
See the Opinion of The European Central Bank of 21 June 2024 on the proposal for a regulation of the
European Parliament and of the Council as regards certain reporting requirements in the fields of financial
services and investment support (CON/2024/21).
12.
See in particular section 4.2.3, ECB (2025), ECB Annual Report on supervisory activities 2024 , 27 March.
13.
See in particular section 4.1, ECB (2025), ECB Annual Report on supervisory activities 2024 , 27 March.
14.
See ECB (2024), Financial Stability Review , November.
15.
See Draghi, M. (2024), The future of European competitiveness - A competitiveness strategy for Europe ,
European Commission, September; and Letta, E. (2024), Much more than a market , April. | - Claudia Buch delivered an introductory statement reporting on ECB Banking Supervision's activities and the publication of the 2024 Annual Report.
- The establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism in 2014 has contributed to financial stability and competitiveness in Europe over the past decade.
- A comprehensive package of banking sector reforms has made the banking sector more resilient, with Europe showing solid capital and liquidity positions.
- European banks have adjusted well to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, maintaining strong capital ratios and benefiting from increased interest rates.
- Despite overall solid asset quality, weaker economic growth and higher interest rates pose risks, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises and commercial real estate.
- Key priorities for ECB Banking Supervision include addressing geopolitical, climate, and cyber risks, with increased monitoring and a cyber resilience stress test conducted.
- The implementation of the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) aims to strengthen IT security and reduce outsourcing risks.
- There is a focus on improving banks' internal information systems to effectively monitor risks, with published guidance clarifying supervisory expectations.
- Efforts are being made to reduce complexities in the current supervisory framework while maintaining resilience, with reforms to the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process.
- Initiatives aim to harmonize reporting schemes and improve information sharing, with the Integrated Reporting Framework and collaboration with the European Banking Authority being key projects.
- A Memorandum of Understanding with the EU Authority for Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism highlights cooperation principles and information exchange.
- Simplification of regulations is being explored, though any changes must not compromise resilience, and discussions should be informed by sound evidence.
- Strong supervision and regulation are necessary to ensure financial stability and protect deposits, especially in light of current economic uncertainties.
- Enhancements to crisis management and deposit insurance frameworks are needed, with completing the banking union and establishing a European deposit insurance scheme as priorities. | Claudia Buch | European Central Bank | EU | Chair of the Supervisory Board | Chair | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250401a.htm | 2025-03-27T00:00:00 | Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate kept unchanged | Introductory statement by Ms Ida Wolden Bache, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the press conference following Norway's announcement of the policy rate, Oslo, 27 March 2025. | Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate kept unchanged
Introductory statement by Ms Ida Wolden Bache, Governor of Norges Bank (Central
Bank of Norway), at the press conference following Norway's announcement of the
policy rate, Oslo, 27 March 2025.
* * *
Presentation accompanying the speech
Chart 1: Policy rate kept unchanged at 4.5%
The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee has decided to keep the policy
rate unchanged at 4.5%.
Norges Bank is tasked with keeping inflation low and stable. The operational target is
inflation of close to 2 percent over time. We are also mandated to help keep
employment as high as possible and to promote economic stability.
When inflation surged three years ago, we raised the policy rate sharply and rapidly.
The policy rate has been held at 4.5% for more than a year. The tightening of monetary
policy has contributed to cooling down the economy and to dampening inflation.
Inflation has fallen significantly from the peak. Unemployment has increased a little in
recent years from a low level.
When we last presented our projections in December, the Committee assessed that the
time to begin easing monetary policy was soon approaching. We signalled that we
would reduce the policy rate in March if the economy evolved as we envisaged at that
time. We communicated the same intention at the monetary policy meeting in January.
The Committee now judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged
given that the economy has not evolved as we envisaged.
The incoming data in recent months indicate that inflation could run markedly higher
than we had previously projected. To bring inflation back to 2% within a reasonable time
horizon, the Committee judges that there is a need to maintain the current stance for
somewhat longer than envisaged in December.
Let me elaborate:
Chart 2: Wage growth has risen further
Wage growth has risen markedly in recent years and rose further in 2024. Overall wage
growth was 5.6%, which was higher than expected. Higher wage growth will raise
business costs and contribute to stoking inflation ahead.
Chart 3: Unexpected rise in Inflation
Inflation has picked up in recent months and is markedly higher than projected in
December. Consumer price inflation was 3.6% in February. In particular, food prices
increased, but prices for a range of other goods and services also rose at faster pace.
Some of the inflationary factors are expected to be temporary, but not all of them.
The krone appreciation will on its own dampen inflation. The inflation projections for the
coming year are nevertheless higher than the projections we presented in December.
If the policy rate is lowered prematurely, we risk seeing a continued rapid rise in prices.
Chart 4: Regional Network contacts report increased activity
At the same time, we do not want to restrict the economy more than needed to bring
inflation back to target. Unemployment has declined a little recently and been lower
than expected. Employment has increased. Economic activity fell towards the end of
last year, partly due to a continued decline in residential construction. But according to
Norges Bank's Regional Network, activity has picked up over winter.
The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is greater than normal. The world economy is
marked by the changed environment for international trade. Higher tariffs and trade
policy uncertainty are expected to dampen growth among our trading partners, but the
tariffs implemented to date will probably have a limited impact on economic activity in
Norway. Regional Network contacts point to increased uncertainty due to trade
conflicts, but only a small share expect that this will lead to lower activity in the near
term. If more extensive trade restrictions were to lead to a global economic downturn,
the outlook for the Norwegian economy could also weaken.
Chart 5: Need to maintain the current stance for somewhat longer
If developments turn out as we now envisage, the Committee will most likely reduce the
policy rate in the course of 2025. The forecast presented today is consistent with a
decline in the policy rate to 4% by the end of 2025 and a gradual further decline over
the next years. We must be prepared for a higher interest rate level than we had been
accustomed to over the past decade.
Chart 6. Inflation back to target without a large increase in unemployment
With the current policy rate path, wages are expected to rise more than prices ahead,
and most people will see their budgets stretch further. Consumer price inflation is
expected to rise slightly in the coming months and then to decline and approach the 2%
target at the end of 2028. Unemployment is expected to rise a little to around the
prepandemic level.
The future policy rate path will depend on how the economy evolves. If prospects
suggest that wage and price inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a
higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required. If the pickup in inflation
proves more temporary than currently assumed or unemployment rises more than
projected, the policy rate may be reduced faster.
We cannot make any promises about the the policy rate. The promise we have made is
that we will set the policy rate with the aim of returning inflation to target while helping to
keep employment as high as possible. This is a promise we stand by.
| - Norges Bank's policy rate is kept unchanged at 4.5% to address higher-than-expected inflation and wage growth.
- Inflation control remains critical, maintaining the 2% target while considering broader economic stability and employment.
- Despite prior signals to reduce the policy rate, recent data shows potential for higher inflation, demanding a steady policy stance longer than anticipated.
- Unanticipated wage growth (5.6% in 2024) contributes to inflationary pressures, necessitating caution against premature rate cuts.
- Inflation has risen, notably in food and various goods, exceeding December projections. Some effects are temporary, yet vigilance is required.
- Economic activity has picked up, decreasing unemployment slightly and increasing employment, but economic uncertainties persist due to global trade dynamics.
- The Committee anticipates potential rate reduction in 2025, projecting a policy rate of 4% by year-end if conditions allow.
- A gradual policy rate path aims to approach inflation targets without significant unemployment increases, noting future rate adjustments depend on evolving economic indicators.
- Norges Bank remains committed to returning inflation to target while supporting maximum employment, being prepared to adjust policy as required.
- There's a recognition of greater uncertainty in the outlook, especially from international trade tensions, though current tariffs have limited domestic impact.
- Conditional on the scenario, either a faster rate reduction or further rate hikes may be necessary based on inflation duration and unemployment shifts. | Ida Wolden Bache | Norges Bank | NO | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250401c.htm | 2025-03-27T00:00:00 | Isabel Schnabel: Financial literacy and monetary policy transmission | Speech by Ms Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the 2025 Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School, London, 27 March 2025. | SPEECH
Financial literacy and monetary policy
transmission
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the
ECB, at the 2025 Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School
London, 27 March 2025
According to our latest public opinion survey, more than 90% of respondents are aware of the European
1 ][ 2 ]
Central Bank.[ But when asked about our tasks, only 43% said they know that the ECB is responsible
for maintaining price stability, despite inflation continuing to be the most important issue for European
3 ]
citizens.[
These findings are part of a broader societal phenomenon: the widespread lack of financial literacy.
Financial literacy is the ability to understand and apply basic financial concepts. It empowers individuals to
make informed financial choices, mitigate investment risks and make provisions for old age.
In my lecture today, I will argue that financial literacy also matters for the transmission of monetary policy. I
will show that financially literate individuals react more strongly to interest rate changes, are more willing to
take on risk and are more forward-looking when forming inflation expectations.
Together, these factors suggest that greater financial literacy tends to strengthen the transmission of
central bank policies to the real economy. Therefore, it can make monetary policy more effective in
achieving its objectives and lower the sacrifice ratio - that is, the cost of reducing inflation in terms of lost
output or higher unemployment.
For this reason, central banks, including the ECB, have increased their efforts to foster financial literacy.
Such initiatives strengthen trust in central banks and support broader policy goals, including progress on
the European savings and investment union.
Financial literacy varies widely across socio-economic groups
In 2021 G20 finance ministers and central bank governors recognised financial literacy as an essential
4 ]
skill for empowering people and supporting individual and societal well-being.[ It is defined as the ability
to understand and effectively use basic financial concepts to take personal financial decisions.
Such decisions are taken at various stages of life. People have to decide how much of their income they
want to spend and to save, how to best invest their savings, how to finance big purchases like an
apartment or a house, and how to make provisions for old age or emergencies. This requires an
understanding of how interest rates and inflation affect the return on various financial products and the
cost of borrowing.
The sharp economic fluctuations over the past few years have underscored how important financial
literacy is for the well-being of households. The surge in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic and the
sharp rise in interest rates after a decade of low rates have highlighted the need for individuals to properly
understand and react to a changing inflation and interest rate environment.
Economists Annamaria Lusardi and Olivia Mitchell developed the "Big Three" financial literacy questions,
5 ]
which have become a widely used measure of financial literacy (Slides 2 to 4).[
These questions assess basic knowledge in three areas that are of key importance for households'
financial decision-making: the concept of compound interest, the importance of inflation for the purchasing
6 ]
power of savings, and the benefits of diversifying a portfolio across different assets.[ People are usually
considered to be financially literate if they can answer all these three questions correctly.
Numerous surveys collect information about the level of financial literacy across various countries and
socio-economic groups, and the ECB has contributed to this effort by including questions on financial
literacy in its consumer expectations survey.
These surveys show that many people struggle to answer all three questions correctly. In the euro area,
less than half of respondents, around 48%, managed to get all three questions right (Slide 5).
Moreover, financial literacy varies widely across socio-economic groups.
First, financial literacy is lower for younger people. Those aged below 50 display below-average financial
literacy, which could negatively affect their ability to build up long-term wealth or their decisions about
7 ]
major purchases.[
Second, women have on average significantly lower financial literacy than men. This could lead to a
8 ]
higher risk of financial hardship and could explain why women are more often at risk of old-age poverty.[
Third, financial literacy increases with educational attainment and income, potentially reinforcing inequality
9 ]
as, on average, financially literate people take better financial decisions.[
Finally, there is considerable variation across countries, also within the euro area. Financial literacy tends
to be higher in northern European countries.
Financial literacy matters for monetary policy transmission
These differences have important implications for individuals, but they may also have an impact on the
effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
Monetary policy is a case in point. The effectiveness of monetary policy relies on the smooth transmission
of policy decisions - especially changes to key policy rates - to financing conditions and, from there, to
economic activity and inflation.
Today I will focus on three key channels through which financial literacy can influence the transmission of
our monetary policy: the interest rate channel, the risk-taking channel and the inflation expectations
10 ]
channel.[
Financially literate households react more strongly to interest rate changes
In standard macroeconomic models, monetary policy works mainly through the interest rate channel: an
increase in interest rates shifts intertemporal trade-offs in the direction of higher savings and less
consumption due to a substitution effect. Higher interest rates dissuade firms from investing and
households from purchasing houses or durable goods.
Policymakers frequently use these models to derive policy prescriptions, thereby implicitly assuming that
households react in an optimal way to changes in interest rates by adjusting their borrowing and saving.
However, a lack of financial literacy in part of society could be one reason that not all people behave in the
way that models with rational expectations assume. Consequently, policymakers may make mistakes in
11 ]
predicting household behaviour, affecting the way monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy.[
For example, survey evidence suggests that financially literate households are more responsive to
changes in interest rates.
On the one hand, this reflects the fact that these households are more attentive to interest rate
developments. Among financially literate households, 62% report paying "some", "much" or "a great deal"
of attention to the level of interest rates. For households with low financial literacy, this share is only 49%
12 ]
(Slide 6).[
On the other hand, a financially literate person has a better understanding of how interest rate changes
will affect their financial situation and how they should best respond.
The experience of recent years is a good example. When the ECB raised its policy rates in 2022 to fight
inflation, financially literate individuals understood that this created more beneficial conditions for saving
and less attractive conditions for borrowing, strengthening policy transmission. By contrast, less financially
literate people reacted much less strongly to the dramatic change in the interest rate environment (Slide
7).
In other cases, the impact on transmission is less clear.
Households with high levels of financial literacy preferred fixed-rate loans when interest rates were low,
but less so when interest rates were high (Slide 8). This behaviour tends to slow down policy transmission,
as it insulates these households from changes in the interest rate environment. By contrast, less
financially literate households did not significantly adjust their preferences when interest rates increased
13 ]
sharply.[
The financial literacy of borrowers and depositors may also affect how swiftly and strongly banks pass
through changes in policy rates to financing conditions. This is a key step in monetary policy transmission.
The more attentive households are to interest rates, the more likely they are to search for the best
possible interest rate for both loans and deposits. Indeed, according to the consumer expectations survey,
financially literate households are more likely to "shop around" for the best terms of debt products (Slide 9,
left-hand side).
The same is true for deposits. During the recent hiking cycle, banks had to increase deposit rates to
14 ]
prevent a deposit flight as depositors shifted from low-yielding deposits to higher-yielding investments.[
Such behaviour is likely linked to financial literacy. In fact, during the recent tightening cycle, cash
accounts of corporates, which are managed by finance professionals, received higher interest rates for
both overnight and term deposits than those of households (Slide 9, right-hand side).
Higher funding costs for banks then also translate into higher bank lending rates, strengthening the
transmission of policy rates to financing conditions.
Financial literacy increases risk-taking and stock market participation
A second important transmission channel of monetary policy operates through investors' risk appetite. This
is the risk-taking channel.
Monetary policy influences people's willingness to take risks, with looser monetary policy being associated
with greater risk-taking, as investors have an incentive to switch from safe assets to higher-yielding
15 ]
alternatives.[ Increased risk-taking, particularly through greater stock market participation, amplifies the
16 ]
aggregate effects of monetary policy adjustments.[
Research indicates that financial literacy plays a crucial role in determining the extent to which households
17 ]
engage in risk-taking by investing in the stock market or other risk assets.[ Financially literate
households are much more likely to invest in stocks or mutual funds, thereby strengthening monetary
policy transmission (Slide 10, left-hand side).
Differences can also be found in the mortgage market.
A higher share of financially literate households take out mortgages and other loans than is the case for
households with low financial literacy, although the difference is quantitatively much smaller than for stocks
(Slide 10, right-hand side). Changes in aggregate consumption in response to interest rate adjustments
18 ]
are to a large extent driven by households with mortgages.[
Higher risk-taking may also affect monetary policy indirectly by mobilising private capital for riskier and
more productive investments. More risk capital should lead to higher productivity growth and hence a
higher natural interest rate, r-star, giving central banks greater scope to stimulate the economy through
19 ]
lower interest rates due to a greater distance to the zero lower bound.[
The effects of higher risk-taking can be self-reinforcing. If a larger share of the population rebalances their
portfolios by switching from savings products or bonds to stocks in response to looser monetary policy,
this may encourage firms to make additional investments. The increase in investment leads to higher
20 ]
aggregate income, in turn leading to more investment in the stock market.[ Through this channel, stock
21 ]
market participation can magnify the investment response to monetary policy shocks.[
Wealth effects provide another amplifying channel, as looser monetary policy tends to go hand-in-hand
with a better performance of riskier assets, increasing household wealth and fostering consumption, with
important distributional consequences. However, as shown over the recent tightening cycle, asset prices
may behave differently. Over this period, the dampening effect of higher rates on stock prices was more
than offset by stronger risk sentiment, leading to a surge in stock prices. Such wealth effects weakened
monetary policy transmission in the most recent hiking cycle.
Lastly, financially literate households have been shown to be more likely to build up precautionary savings,
22 ]
making them better able to cope with financial shocks and smooth their consumption.[ This may slow
monetary transmission, as these households can initially draw on cash buffers when the cost of borrowing
increases through policy tightening. Hence, the impact of financial literacy on risk-taking may also go in
the opposite direction.
Financially literate households are more forward-looking when forming inflation
expectations
A third key transmission channel of monetary policy is the inflation expectations channel.
Since consumption and investment decisions as well as price and wage-setting processes reflect
expectations about the future pace of price changes, household inflation expectations shape inflation
dynamics. A growing body of research suggests that consumers' expectations matter greatly for the
23 ]
transmission of monetary policy, possibly more than those of financial market participants.[
Research by the International Monetary Fund shows that, over the recent inflation episode, near-term
inflation expectations became an increasingly important driver of inflation in advanced economies (Slide
24 ]
11, left-hand side).[
In turn, factors that can reduce the sensitivity of inflation expectations to actual inflation developments can
contribute to bringing inflation down more quickly. And the lower the sensitivity, the lower the sacrifice ratio,
allowing for swift disinflation without causing high unemployment or a deep recession.
It is therefore crucial that central banks understand how households form these expectations.
Research shows that policy tightening has a stronger dampening effect on near-term inflation expectations
and inflation when a greater share of people in the economy are forward-looking (Slide 11, right-hand
25 ]
side).[
Forward-looking households form their expectations on the basis of a broader set of information, including
central bank policies and their expected impact on the economy, while backward-looking households base
their expectations to a larger degree on past inflation experience.
Therefore, a higher share of backward-looking households means that the central bank must tighten
monetary policy more to achieve the same drop in inflation.
The degree to which households are forward-looking likely depends on their level of financial literacy.
Survey evidence indicates that households with higher financial literacy pay more attention to inflation.
52% of financially literate households pay "much" or "a great deal" of attention to inflation. This share
stands at just 45% for the less financially literate (Slide 12, left-hand side). Higher attention also implies
26 ]
that these people are easier to reach through central bank communication.[
However, these data also suggest that even for financially literate people, almost one half do not pay much
attention to inflation. This may explain why inflation perceptions are often very persistent, adapting slowly
to actual inflation dynamics. While headline inflation in the euro area dropped by almost 8 percentage
points from its peak in October 2022 until the end of 2023, inflation perceptions fell by much less (Slide 12,
right-hand side).
Again, there is some difference of inflation perceptions across different levels of financial literacy: while the
inflation perceptions of both groups were similar when inflation had reached its peak, those of financially
literate people are now 1.6 percentage points lower than those of less financially literate people.
Inflation expectations paint a similar picture. The one-year ahead inflation expectations of financially
literate households have dropped much more quickly than those of the less financially literate (Slide 13,
left-hand side).
These two findings are linked and reflect the fact that individuals' inflation perceptions have a substantial
27 ]
impact on their expectations of future inflation.[
Overall, the share of consumers with inflation expectations broadly anchored around 2% - meaning that
three-year inflation expectations are between 1.5% and 2.5% - has fluctuated around a level of only 17%,
indicating a low degree of anchoring.
Again, there are notable differences in inflation expectations linked to financial literacy. The share of
consumers with medium-term inflation expectations anchored around 2% is significantly higher for
financially literate households. However, these households have also been more responsive to actual
inflation developments, with the share of consumers with medium-term inflation expectations around 2%
declining more sharply when inflation surged and rising more strongly when it came down (Slide 13, right-
28 ]
hand side).[
The observed differences in the formation of inflation expectations translate into lower deviations of
individual one-year ahead forecasts from inflation perceptions at that time for more financially literate
people, implying a lower subjective forecast error (Slide 14). In other words, households with higher levels
29 ]
of financial literacy tend to have more accurate inflation expectations.[
Financial literacy also affects household perceptions of real, i.e. inflation-adjusted, incomes, with
implications for monetary policy transmission. Over the past three years, real private consumption has
increased more slowly than real disposable income. This can be partly explained by household
30 ]
misperceptions of their real income developments.[
While over 50% of households in the euro area experienced positive real income growth in 2024, only 11%
perceived that their real income had increased (Slide 15, left-hand side). The net percentage of
pessimistic households is highest for the bottom half of the income distribution, and it is also higher for
households with low financial literacy (Slide 15, right-hand side).
This implies that lower inflation due to restrictive monetary policy generally had a weaker impact on
consumption due to such misperceptions, dampening the recovery.
The need for enhanced financial education initiatives
The evidence presented explains why central banks have a keen interest in promoting financial literacy
and improving financial knowledge.
In our 2021 monetary policy strategy review, we acknowledged that communication to broader audiences
is key for monetary policy. That is why we have put more emphasis on explaining our monetary policy
31 ]
decisions to the general public in an accessible way.[
Since President Lagarde took office, the Governing Council has made significant progress in making
communication more accessible. For example, the introductory statement to the press conference after
our monetary policy decisions has been replaced with the monetary policy statement, which offers a more
concise and compelling narrative, while significantly reducing the textual complexity of monetary policy
announcements, thereby increasing readability (Slide 16). To reach audiences beyond experts, the
statement has been complemented by highly accessible, visualised statements, available in all EU
32 ]
languages.[
33 ]
When people understand how monetary policy works, they tend to trust central banks more.[ And
people's trust in the central bank and in its ability to maintain price stability has been shown to help anchor
34 ]
inflation expectations and increase the share of forward-looking people in the economy.[
Knowledge about the ECB is linked to financial literacy. Financially literate households tend to be
significantly more knowledgeable about the ECB and its inflation objective (Slide 17).
This has implications for the ECB's credibility. In the most recent inflationary episode, the share of
households with high financial literacy that trusted the ECB to maintain price stability over the next three
years rose notably after the ECB had embarked on its hiking cycle and inflation had come down
significantly (Slide 18).
By contrast, households with low financial literacy lost confidence in the ECB's ability to maintain price
stability as interest rates rose. Even when inflation had already come down significantly, the share of
households that trusted the ECB's ability to maintain price stability remained low. This is in line with recent
evidence from the United States, where 60% of survey respondents believe that high interest rates cause
35 ]
high inflation.[
Therefore, to maintain and improve their credibility, central banks should help people understand their
policy actions and their economic effects through communication and enhance their efforts to improve
36 ]
financial literacy.[
At the ECB, we are taking active steps to do this. We have expanded our communication efforts towards
the general public by offering explainers on YouTube (through our "Espresso Economics" channel), by
speaking more frequently on TV, by engaging on social media and by producing regular podcasts.
Earlier this month, on International Women's Day, the ECB took another step in promoting financial literacy
by committing to five joint actions with national central banks, also aimed at closing the gender gap in
37 ]
financial literacy.[
These include raising awareness, establishing a central bank financial literacy network, collaborating with
national authorities for consumer protection, developing a harmonised financial literacy dataset across
Europe, and focusing communication efforts on key moments in life, such as early education, taking out a
major loan or building a pension.
Of course, such efforts can only complement, not replace, much broader efforts needed from governments
and the education system. And it requires a long-term effort, with progress likely to be incremental.
Financial literacy is also an important cornerstone of the savings and investment union, one of the
38 ]
European Commission's flagship projects.[
Under its first pillar, it aims to encourage citizens to invest in capital markets, which can contribute to
39 ]
financing part of the massive investments needed for the green and digital transitions.[ As I said before,
financial literacy increases the willingness to make such investments. Therefore, an improvement in
financial literacy is seen as essential to achieving the stated objectives. That is why the European
Commission will adopt a financial literacy strategy, in line with the ECB's efforts.
Conclusion
Let me conclude.
Financial literacy is an essential life skill that not only empowers individuals to make informed financial
decisions but can also make monetary policy more effective.
Financially literate individuals respond more strongly to interest rate changes, are more willing to take on
risk and are more forward-looking when forming inflation expectations. This tends to strengthen the
transmission of central bank policies to the real economy.
However, significant differences in financial literacy across socio-economic groups highlight the need for
continued educational initiatives.
Fostering financial literacy can support policy effectiveness, enhance public trust in central banks and help
people make better financial decisions, ultimately contributing to a stronger economy and individual well-
being.
As Benjamin Franklin, who spent more than 16 years here in London, once said, "an investment in
knowledge pays the best interest."
Thank you.
Annexes
27 March 2025
Slides
1.
I would like to thank Dimitris Georgarakos for his contributions to this speech.
2.
ECB Knowledge and Attitude Survey, 10th edition, 2024, internal report.
3.
European Commission (2025), Eurobarometer, EP Winter 2025 survey, March.
4.
G20 (2021), Italian G20 Presidency Third Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
Communiqué. This was preceded by the publication of comprehensive recommendations by the OECD on
how to improve financial literacy globally. See OECD (2020), Recommendation of the Council on Financial
Literacy.
5.
Lusardi, A. and Mitchell, O.S. (2014), "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and
Evidence", Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 52, No 1, March.
6.
The "Big Three" questions are the following: Interest rate question (numeracy): Suppose you had $100 in
a savings account, and the interest rate is 2% per year. After five years, how much do you think you would
have in the account if you left the money to grow? A) More than $102, B) Exactly $102, C) Less than $102,
D) Don't know; Inflation question: Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account is 1% per year,
and inflation is 2% per year. After one year, would you be able to buy: A) More than today, B) Exactly the
same as today, C) Less than today, D) Don't know; Risk diversification question: Do you think the following
statement is true or false? "Buying a single company's stock usually provides a safer return than a stock
mutual fund." A) True, B) False, C) Don't know.
7.
Lusardi, A. and Mitchell, O.S. (2007), "Financial Literacy and Retirement Preparedness: Evidence and
Implications for Financial Education", Business Economics, Vol. 42(1), pp. 35-44, January.
8.
Lusardi, A. and Mitchell, O.S (2008), "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?" American
Economic Review, Vol. 98, No 2, pp. 413-417, May. See also Hasler, A. and Lusardi, A. (2017), The
Gender Gap in Financial Literacy: A Global Perspective, Global Financial Literacy Excellence Centre.
9.
Atkinson, A. and Messy, F.-A. (2012), "Measuring Financial Literacy: Results of the OECD / International
Network on Financial Education (INFE) Pilot Study", OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and
Private Pensions, No 15, OECD Publishing.
10.
Most of the results presented in this speech are descriptive without establishing causal relationships.
Causal evidence is provided in some of the given references.
11.
Economists, including those at central banks, are increasingly using heterogenous agent (HANK) models,
moving away from the representative agent assumption. Some findings discussed in the speech, such as
the low responsiveness of some agents to interest rates, can be explained in such models.
12.
Baldassarri, L. Georgarakos, D., Kenny, G. and Meyer, J. (2024), "Monetary policy transmission to
households: The importance of consumers' attention to interest rates and financial literacy", VoxEU, 26
September.
13.
Byrne, D., Kelly, R. and O'Toole, C. (2022), "How Does Monetary Policy Pass-Through Affect Mortgage
Default? Evidence from the Irish Mortgage Market", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 54, Issue
7, pp. 2081-2101.
14.
Deuflhard, F., Georgarakos, D. and Inderst, R. (2018), "Financial Literacy and Savings Account Returns",
Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 17(1), pp. 131-164.
15.
Bauer, M.D., Bernanke, B.S. and Milstein, E. (2023), "Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of
Monetary Policy", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 37, No 1, Winter, pp. 77-100. See also Borio, C.
and Zhu, H. (2012), "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission
mechanism?", Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 8, Issue 4, pp. 236-251.
16.
Melcangi, D. and Sterk, V. (2024), "Stock Market Participation, Inequality, and Monetary Policy", The
Review of Economic Studies, June.
17.
Christelis, D., Georgarakos, D., Jappelli, T. and Kenny, G. (2024), "Consumer risk-taking and stock market
investment: Insights using the CES's consumer finance module", Research Bulletin, No 119, European
Central Bank, May. See also van Rooij, M., Lusardi, A. and Alessie, R. (2011), "Financial literacy and stock
market participation", Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 101, Issue 2, pp. 449-472.
18.
Cloyne, J., Ferreira, C. and Surico, P. (2020), "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New
Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism", The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 87, Issue 1, pp. 102-
129.
19.
Filip, M.-D., Momferatou, D. and Parraga-Rodriguez, S. (2025), " Why a more competitive economy
matters for monetary policy ", The ECB Blog, ECB, 11 February.
20.
Melcangi, D. and Sterk, V. (2024), op. cit.
21.
On the downside, this channel can also encourage excessive risk-taking, thereby endangering financial
stability. Even financially literate households may not be immune to irrational exuberance, fuelling financial
bubbles.
22.
The build-up of precautionary savings may also be beneficial for financial stability. See Lusardi, A.,
Schneider, D. and Tufano, P. (2011), "Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Vol. 42(1),
Spring, pp. 83-150.
23.
McMahon, M. and Naylor, M. (2023), "Getting through: communicating complex information", Bank of
England Staff Working Paper No. 1047. See also Reis, R. (2023), "Four mistakes in the use of measures
of expected inflation", AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 113, pp. 47-51.
24.
See Chapter 2 of the IMF's October 2023 World Economic Outlook. Similar results for the relevance of
inflation expectations for aggregate demand and inflation dynamics had been found for the low inflation
period preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. An exogenous increase in the inflation expectations of
households from below target levels leads to increased consumption and ultimately to higher inflation.
Households expecting stable prices have a lower propensity to buy durable goods than those expecting
positive inflation. See Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S. and Pedemonte, M. (2020), "Inflation
expectations as a policy tool?", Journal of International Economics, Vol. 124, May. See also Andrade, P.,
Gautier, E. and Mengus, E. (2023), "What matters in households' inflation expectations?", Journal of
Monetary Economics, Vol. 138, September, pp. 50-68.
25.
Albrizio, S. and Bluedorn, J. (2023), " How Managing Inflation Expectations Can Help Economies Achieve
a Softer Landing ", IMF Blog, IMF, 4 October.
26.
Ehrmann, M., Georgarakos, D. and Kenny, G. (2023), "Credibility gains from communicating with the
public: evidence from the ECB's new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series, No 2785, ECB.
27.
Weber, M., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Coibion, O. (2023), "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of
US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Vol. 71(1), March,
pp. 326-368.
28.
For more details on consumers' inflation expectations, see D'Acunto, F., Charalambakis, E., Georgarakos,
D., Kenny, G., Meyer, J. and Weber, M. (2024), "Household inflation expectations: an overview of recent
insights for monetary policy", Discussion Paper Series, No 24, ECB.
29.
Rumler, F. and Valderrama, M.T. (2020), "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from
Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Vol. 87, pp. 8-23. See also Bruine de Bruin et al.
(2010) who highlight how inflation expectations are higher among those with lower financial literacy:
Bruine de Bruin, W., van der Klaauw, W., Downs, J.S., Fischhoff, B., Topa, G. and Armantier, O. (2010),
"Expectations of Inflation: The Role of Demographic Variables, Expectation Formation, and Financial
Literacy", The Journal of Consumer Affairs, Vol. 44, No 2, pp. 381-402. See also Burke, M.A. and Manz,
M. (2014), "Economic Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment",
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 46, No 7, pp. 1421-1456, October.
30.
Baumann, A., Caprari, L., Kocharkov, G. and Kouvavas, O. (2025), "Are real incomes increasing or not?
Household perceptions and their role for consumption", Economic Bulletin, Issue 1, ECB.
31.
European Central Bank (2021), Strategy review , July.
32.
See the ECB's Our monetary policy statement at a glance .
33.
Ehrmann, M. (2024), "Trust in central banks", Working Paper Series, No 3006, ECB.
34.
Niţoi, M. and Pochea, M.-M. (2024), "Trust in the central bank, financial literacy, and personal beliefs",
Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 143, May. See also De Fiore, F., Goel, T., Igan, D. and
Moessner, R. (2022), "Rising household inflation expectations: what are the communication challenges for
central banks?", BIS Bulletin, No 55, 23 May. See also Christelis, D., Georgarakos, D., Tullio, J. and van
Rooij, M., (2020), "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central
Banking, Vol. 16(6), pp. 1-37, December.
35.
Binetti, A., Nuzzi, F. and Stantcheva, S. (2024), "People's understanding of inflation", Journal of Monetary
Economics, Vol. 148, Supplement, November.
36.
Angino, S. and Secola, S. (2022), "Instinctive v | - Financial literacy enhances the transmission of monetary policy, as it makes individuals more responsive to interest rate changes, prone to take risks, and better at forming inflation expectations.
- The ECB is increasing efforts to improve financial literacy, which supports broader policy goals and strengthens trust in central banks.
- Financial literacy varies significantly across socio-economic groups, affecting economic decisions and reinforcing inequality.
- Financial literacy is crucial for effective monetary policy transmission via the interest rate, risk-taking, and inflation expectations channels.
- Surveys indicate a gap in financial literacy, with less than half of euro area respondents answering key financial literacy questions correctly.
- Financially literate households show more attention to interest rates, affecting their saving and borrowing decisions.
- Higher financial literacy influences banks' interest rate policies as literate consumers seek optimal financial terms.
- Financial literacy boosts stock market participation and risk-taking, enhancing monetary policy's impact on investment and economic growth.
- Inflation expectations are more accurately formed by financially literate individuals, impacting monetary policy effectiveness.
- Financial misperceptions can lead to weaker policy impact on consumption due to inaccurate real income perceptions.
- The ECB has expanded communication to increase public understanding and trust, thereby improving policy credibility.
- Efforts include making monetary policy communications more accessible and promoting financial literacy, especially aimed at closing the gender gap. | Isabel Schnabel | European Central Bank | EU | Member of the Executive Board | Executive Board Member | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250401d.htm | 2025-03-31T00:00:00 | François Villeroy de Galhau: 10 years of the Observatory for Banking Inclusion - an example of collective efficiency | Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the tenth anniversary of the Observatoire de l'inclusion bancaire (OIB – Observatory for Banking Inclusion), Paris, 31 March 2025. | Speech
Financial inclusion
« 10 years of the Observatory for
Banking Inclusion: an example of
collective efficiency »
Published on the 31st of March 2025
Paris - 31 March 2025
Speech by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de
France
I am delighted to be here with you to celebrate the tenth anniversary of
the Observatoire de l'inclusion bancaire (OIB - Observatory for Banking
Inclusion). It is a great pleasure to welcome the Chairman of the Cour
des comptes (Court of Auditors), Pierre Moscovici, who, as Minister of
Finance, introduced the 2013 Banking Law that led to the creation of the
Observatory.
Image
La naissance de l'observatoire de l'inclusion bancaire (OIB) ...
I have played my own modest part in this collective endeavour by
chairing 21 of the 25 meetings of the OIB since September 2014. The
Observatory was born out of a strong conviction - perhaps contrary to
the commonly-held view - that finance and banks can act as a lever for
social inclusion. Let me be clear: the Banque de France, which is often
associated with sovereign missions (money and financial stability), is
also proud to have social missions, which are essential for our Network
and for me as Governor.
In 10 years, the Observatory has made significant progress.
Unfortunately, in France and in Europe - unlike in the United States - we
are quicker to lament our failures than to acknowledge our successes.
So, this morning, it is a pleasure to celebrate a collective source of pride
and, allow me to draw some broader lessons for public policy in our
country at a time fraught with doubt. Effective public policy requires at
least three ingredients: sustained action (I), quantified assessment (II),
and a partnership and regional approach (III). However, we can't afford to
rest on our laurels, so I will conclude with some forward-looking
comments (IV).
I. Sustained action and perseverance
The creation of the OIB in 2014 was part of the long history of banking
and financial inclusion in France in two main areas: access to banking
services and the protection of the most vulnerable consumers of
financial services.
Image
From the time that the 1984 Banking Law was introduced by Jacques
Delors - almost 30 years before the equivalent European law - the right
to a basic bank account procedure was created to guarantee access to
banking services for all. The Banque de France implements this
procedure, which allows anyone who has been refused an account by a
bank to be designated an establishment that will provide basic banking
services free of charge. Even though France has one of Europe's highest
levels of access to banking services at 99.2%, the right to a basic bank
account procedure continues to meet a real need: 29,300 designations
were issued in 2024. I note that this number is steadily decreasing (down
by 57% from the peak of 2015), which attests to a higher rate of access.
Banking inclusion also means protecting the most vulnerable consumers
i
of financial services. In 1989, the Neiertz Act introduced a collective
procedure for handling cases of household overindebtedness from an
overall perspective. This procedure was then regularly enhanced - with
ii
considerable cross-party consensus - by the Lagarde Act in 2010 - on
iii
revolving credit in particular - followed by the Hamon Act in 2014 on
the search for lasting solutions to limit recurring applications. France now
has Europe's most advanced system for preventing and dealing with
overindebtedness.
II. Quantified assessment:
commitments and impact on bank
charges
I have spoken about the long term. Let us now turn to the present and
the significant progress that has been enabled by the OIB in three areas:
figures, commitments and results.
First off, figures are essential: the financial vulnerability of households is
detected by credit institutions using mechanisms implemented by the
Observatory. Consequently, 4.3 million people were identified as
financially vulnerable in December 2023 (up by 86% compared to 2015).
This sharp increase does not point to a deterioration, but to a much more
effective identification of vulnerable situations. Moreover, it is a
preliminary step in the implementation of appropriate protective
measures, particularly in terms of bank charges. These figures have
elicited commitments from credit institutions and public authorities.
Several recent examples bear this out. In 2018, banks committed to
providing the vulnerable customer solution more widely and to cap
payment incident fees. In 2020, these commitments were incorporated
into the second version of the Banking inclusion and prevention of
overindebtedness charter, which caps payment incident fees at EUR 20
per month and EUR 200 per year for beneficiaries of the vulnerable
customer solution, and at EUR 25 per month for financially vulnerable
iv
customers. The Decree of 20 July 2020 also made it possible to modify
the criteria for detecting situations of financial vulnerability by allowing
earlier and broader identification of the customers concerned.
These commitments have produced concrete results. Financially
vulnerable customers are being detected at an increasingly early stage
and increasing numbers of financially vulnerable people are applying for
the vulnerable customer solution. Beneficiaries of this offering, which
protects vulnerable customers who apply for it, numbered over a million
at the end of 2023, i.e. a 320% increase compared with 2015.
Image
Des résultats concrets en matière de détection et d'accompagnement de la clientèle
financièrement fragile...
Bank charges for financially vulnerable customers have fallen
significantly: down 32% between 2018 and 2023 on all account-related
bank charges, from EUR 304 to EUR 207 per year; and down 25%
between 2019 and 2023 on payment incident fees, from EUR 151 to EUR
113.
Image
The problem of bank charges was extremely sensitive and often made it
into the media. It has not disappeared, but it has been significantly
improved.
III. A partnership and regional
approach
The OIB also embodies the success of a partnership and regional
approach to preventing financial exclusion. It is neither so common nor
so easy to bring together three very different parties on a regular basis:
the six main banking institutions; six welfare associations and
organisations; and the public authorities. Allow me to highlight three of
their collective achievements.
Image
Une démarche partenariale et territoriale
The creation in 2022 of the departmental financial inclusion councils
(CDIF), above all, enabled the actions of the OIB to be effectively
deployed at the regional level and local difficulties and initiatives to be
identified more effectively. The EDUCFI initiatives of the Banque de
France, the steering body for France's financial literacy strategy since
2016, are also based on a partnership approach. These initiatives have
helped to raise awareness of EDUCFI tools and services among a large
number of financial inclusion stakeholders: 9,600 teachers, 30,000 social
workers and 3,500 business support staff in 2024. During Financial
Education Week, which this year took place from 17 to 23 March, the
Banque de France and its partners organised more than 500 budgeting
and financial education workshops throughout the country. This week -
whose theme was to encourage young people in particular to be careful
with their finances - was widely publicised in the media and on social
networks, testifying to French citizens' increased interest in developing
their financial knowledge. Lastly, I will touch on the 500 Budget
Management Advice Offices (PCBs) set up throughout France since
2021: these organisations approved by the state and run largely by
associations or CCASs that are members of the OIB, enable all people to
benefit from personalised, free and confidential guidance.
IV. Building for the future
We now need to ensure that the substantial progress achieved through
the OIB's actions is sustained, while remaining vigilant in the face of the
current situation of overindebtedness and emerging risks.
Image
Pérenniser ces 10 ans d'action de l'OIB
I will start with some relatively encouraging news about the number of
applications to the household debt commissions. Over the first two
months of 2025, the slower increase in the number of applications
observed at the end of 2024 was confirmed, 3% higher than during the
same period at the start of 2024. We are expecting a similar modest
increase for 2025 as a whole. The positive effects of the decline in
inflation - with the attendant gains in purchasing power - should offset
the less favourable labour market outlook. These developments are
nevertheless part of a long-term downward trend in the number of
applications: in 2024, there were significantly fewer than in the pre-
pandemic period (-6%) and the number was well below the level of 10
vi
years ago (-42% compared to 2024).
Image
L'évolution des dépôts de dossiers de surendettement
Beyond these cyclical factors, I would like to mention three points of
vigilance. The increasing dissemination of new products, such as
microloans and payment in instalments, poses increased risks to
vulnerable populations, including the very young. The transposition of
the recent directive on consumer credit should provide a better
framework for these new forms of credit. And I would recommend
systematic consultation of the National Database of Household Credit
Repayment Incidents by all parties before granting loans. This would help
to improve consumer protection and prevent financial difficulties and
overindebtedness. Microcredit is also an effective tool for financial
inclusion, with outstanding loans exceeding EUR 2 billion at the end of
2023. We are therefore carefully monitoring changes in the ecosystem
and the recent warnings about funding assistance to microloan
beneficiaries. This assistance is currently provided by associations and
social welfare agencies that support the beneficiary throughout the
process. Let me reiterate that it is the key feature and the key to the
success of the French microcredit system. Lastly, with regard to the
right to a bank account, the Banque de France is now ready to move to
paperless designation letters - as recommended by the Cour des
vii
comptes in 2021 - to further speed up a procedure that has already
been greatly simplified in recent years: banks must now do their part by
adhering to this project by the end of 2025. I hope that voluntary action
here will prevent us from having to use compulsory measures.
I will finish with these words by Victor Hugo: "for as long as the possible
viii
is not done, our duty will never be fulfilled". We are currently
experiencing a historical turning point in the world, and our country's
response may not live up to the occasion, nor to our duty, and I do not
say this lightly. In its own modest way, the OIB's first ten years have
nevertheless shown us how to raise the level of our debate and action:
through persistence and staying power; quantified evaluation, from ex
ante observations to results; a partnership and regional approach; and
constant vigilance for the future. The OIB has been able to extend its
timeframe beyond day-to-day concerns, bring together different parties
and move beyond the usual French-style squabbling. More broadly, you
can count on the Banque de France - and no doubt, dear Pierre, on the
Cour des Comptes - to foster this spirit more than ever, thanks to its
independence and its stability missions.
Law No. 89 1010 of 31 December 1989, on the prevention and resolution
of difficulties relating to the overindebtedness of individuals
ii
Law No. 2010-737 of 1 July 2010, on the reform of consumer credit
iii
Law No. 2014-344 of 17 March 2014 on consumption
iv
Decree No. 2020-889 of 20 July 2020 amending the conditions used
by credit institutions to assess the financial vulnerability of their account
holder customers.
v
Social action community centre
vi
Banque de France, Enquête typologique sur le surendettement des
ménages en
2024, February 2025
vii
Fichier national des incidents de remboursement des crédits aux
particuliers
viii
Cour des comptes, « Les politiques publiques en faveur de l'inclusion
bancaire et de la prévention du surendettement : des outils adaptés, une
mise en oeuvre à conforter », 2021 Annual Public Report - Vol.II, April
2021
ix
« Détruire la misère
Hugo (V.), », speech, 9 July 1849 | - The OIB was established to leverage finance and banks as tools for social inclusion, reflecting the Banque de France's broader social missions alongside its sovereign functions.
- Significant progress has been made in banking inclusion, with France achieving 99.2% access to banking services; 29,300 basic bank account designations were issued in 2024, showing ongoing needs despite a significant decrease from 2015.
- The OIB has enhanced the detection and early intervention for financially vulnerable individuals, increasing identification of vulnerability by 86% since 2015, leading to better protective measures, particularly regarding bank charges.
- There has been a notable reduction in bank charges for vulnerable customers: a 32% decrease in account-related charges and a 25% decrease in payment incident fees between 2018-2023.
- A partnership and regional approach underlies the OIB's success, involving collaboration between banking institutions, welfare organizations, and public authorities to prevent financial exclusion, highlighted by the creation of departmental financial inclusion councils.
- Educational initiatives like EDUCFI have raised financial literacy, engaging thousands of teachers, social workers, and business support personnel, with over 500 financial education workshops in 2024.
- Looking forward, vigilance is necessary regarding potential risks from emerging financial products like microloans and installment payments, with recommendations for improved consumer credit frameworks and mandatory credit checks.
- The number of overindebtedness applications has shown a long-term downward trend, with gains in purchasing power expected to offset less favorable labor market conditions.
- The Banque de France plans to implement paperless designation letters to expedite the right to a bank account process, encouraging banks to participate voluntarily.
- The OIB exemplifies the benefits of persistence, quantified assessment, partnership approaches, and vigilance for future challenges, contributing to effective public policy against financial exclusion. | François Villeroy de Galhau | Banque de France | FR | Governor | Governor | [
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https://www.bis.org/review/r250401e.htm | 2025-03-31T00:00:00 | Fabio Panetta: Overview of economic and financial developments in Italy | Address by Mr Fabio Panetta, Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the ordinary general meeting of shareholders, Rome, 31 March 2025. | Fabio Panetta: Overview of economic and financial developments in
Italy
Address by Mr Fabio Panetta, Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the ordinary general
meeting of shareholders , Rome, 31 March 2025.
* * *
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Global uncertainty remains high, fuelled by persistent geopolitical and trade tensions.
This environment hinders international trade and exacerbates the fragmentation of the
global economy, contributing to a further slowdown in economic activity.
The European economy, already marked by a stagnating manufacturing sector, is
particularly affected by these dynamics due to its high exposure to international trade.
Since last June, the ECB Governing Council has gradually lowered its key interest
rates, reflecting the progress made in the fight against inflation. However, credit is being
affected, with the usual lags, by the monetary tightening of the previous years and by a
weak business cycle.
Looking ahead, we cannot yet say that the battle against inflation is over. It is crucial
that we monitor any factors that could prevent inflation from returning to its 2 per cent
target.
Monetary policy decisions will have to balance two aspects. On the one hand, the
weakness of the European economy and geopolitical tensions are curbing consumption
and investment, holding down inflation. On the other hand, the growing uncertainty -
due above all to the sometimes contradictory announcements on US trade policies -
requires a prudent approach to policy rate cuts.
As I will explain shortly, the negative impact of high policy rates over the past year is
reflected in Banca d'Italia's 2024 Annual Accounts, which are submitted to you for
approval today.
Monetary policy and its impact on Banca d'Italia's Annual Accounts
The policy rates remained unchanged for the first five months of 2024. Since June, the
ECB Governing Council has started to make gradual cuts: between then and the end of
last year, it lowered the Eurosystem deposit facility rate by 100 basis points, to 3 per
cent.
As of 18 September 2024, to limit the volatility of short-term market rates, the spread
between the MRO rate and the deposit facility rate was reduced from 50 to 15 basis
points.
Subsequently, over the course of 2025, the ECB Governing Council has cut the policy
rates by a further 50 basis points.
Alongside this, it reduced reinvestments of maturing securities purchased under the
pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month over the
second half of 2024, fully discontinuing them by the end of the year. Also taking into
account maturing securities held under the asset purchase programme (APP), the
overall amount of securities held by the Eurosystem for monetary policy purposes
shrank by around €400 billion compared with 2023.
The amount of funding granted to euro-area banks through Eurosystem refinancing
operations fell sharply, from €410 billion to €34 billion. This contraction was mainly due
to the final repayments under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing
operations (TLTRO III).
At the end of 2024, the Eurosystem's overall exposure to monetary policy
counterparties was entirely accounted for by weekly main refinancing operations and
longer-term operations with 3-month maturities.
Overall, the developments in monetary policy operations led to a significant reduction in
euro-area excess liquidity, namely banks' funds above the reserve requirements held
with the Eurosystem. At the end of 2024, excess liquidity was €2,827 billion, down by
€519 billion on the previous year.
The balance sheet
In 2024, the Bank's balance sheet shrank for the third consecutive year, by €149 billion,
in line with what was observed at Eurosystem level. Since 2021, the balance sheet has
contracted by a total of 28 per cent, from €1,538 billion to €1,104 billion.
On the asset side, the decrease was mainly due to the reduction in refinancing
operations, down from €150 billion to €23 billion, and in securities held for monetary
policy purposes, which went from €657 billion to €591 billion, with Italian government
bonds accounting for €544 billion.
On the liability side, there was a decline both in deposits held by banks, which fell by
€66 billion, and in the Bank's negative TARGET balance, which dropped from €521
billion to €416 billion. The reduction in the latter was largely due to foreign investment in
Italian, mostly public sector, securities. The disbursement of the fifth and sixth tranches
of Recovery and Resilience Facility funds to the Italian State through the TARGET
system also contributed to the decrease in the Bank's negative balance.
The negative TARGET balance has continued to decline in the first months of 2025, to
around €400 billion on average in March.
Main drivers of the 2024 net profit and outlook
In 2024, the Bank's financial result before tax and before the release of the general risk
provision was negative by €7.3 billion, €0.2 billion lower than in the previous year.
In the Annual Accounts for 2022, we had already anticipated that Banca d'Italia would
post a gross loss for the following two years, before the release of the general risk
provision, largely due to the sharp contraction in net interest income. As pointed out last
year, the rate hike cycle that began in 2022 led to an increase in the cost of balance
sheet liabilities - mainly bank deposits - with no corresponding increase in the yield on
monetary policy assets. These assets are actually less sensitive to changes in interest
rates, as they consist mainly of fixed-rate securities with medium to long-term maturities.
In 2024, despite the gradual reduction, key interest rates remained higher than in 2023
on average. As a result, the profit and loss account was again affected both by net
interest income (-€4.2 billion) and by the net result of pooling monetary income (-€1.9
billion).
In the years prior to 2023, the Bank built up its financial buffers in anticipation of
potential future losses, thanks to particularly high profits during that period.
In the 2024 accounts, the release of €5.8 billion from the general risk provision, along
with the positive contribution of about €2.4 billion from the carryforward of the tax loss,
enabled the Bank to close the year with a net profit of €0.8 billion.
This release from the general risk provision is consistent with the Bank's lower
exposure to financial risk, stemming from its shrinking balance sheet. This risk will
continue to decline in the coming years owing to the discontinuation of the reinvestment
of the principal payments from the entire portfolio of securities held for monetary policy
purposes.
Despite the total reduction of €11.4 billion in the general risk provision in the last two
years, the degree of risk coverage remains adequate over the short and the medium
term. Furthermore, given the current market expectations for the path of interest rates,
we still expect 2025 to mark a return to gross profit.
I would like to emphasize that the primary goal of the Eurosystem is to maintain price
stability, not to maximize profit. Monetary policy decisions are taken solely pursuant to
this mandate, even when they temporarily lead to a reduction in the financial results
reported by the central banks.
While central banks can fulfil this mandate effectively even when they report losses,
financial independence remains vital for enabling them to properly perform their tasks.
This is why we must welcome any tool or initiative that could help strengthen it. This
philosophy has steered our provisioning policy in the past and will continue to do so in
the future.
The digital euro project, designed to safeguard monetary sovereignty in the euro area
and generate benefits for households and firms, can also contribute to the financial
soundness of central banks, thereby protecting seigniorage. This would become even
more important should the growth in banknotes in circulation slow as a result of
increasing recourse to private means of digital payment.
Organizational measures and digital transformation
One year ago, in this very setting, I stressed the Bank's commitment to the process of
modernization in order to align its internal organizational structure with the changing
environment and to make work processes more efficient, fully seizing the opportunities
offered by digital transformation.
The evolution of the payment system has made the Bank's responsibilities and tasks
more complex as we are called on to ensure that it functions properly and efficiently. In
response to this growing complexity, last year we reorganized the Directorate General
for Markets and Payment Systems, splitting it in two to form the Directorate General for
Markets and Monetary Policy Operations and the Directorate General for Payments and
Market Infrastructures. This decision was taken to increase the effectiveness and
specialization of our organization in these areas.
We also established the Digital Euro Unit, reporting directly to the Governing Board, in
order to concentrate the Bank's work on the Eurosystem's digital euro project in a single
dedicated structure.
Alongside this, as part of the treasury services that Banca d'Italia performs on behalf of
the government, the ReTes operating system, an extensive programme for
reengineering treasury procedures, became operational at the beginning of this year.
Thanks to an innovative IT architecture, ReTes makes it possible to significantly simplify
processes, replace obsolete tools and impose a single standard for exchanges with all
local and central government entities.
This infrastructure will cut operating costs and improve the quality of the service that the
Bank provides to the State, leading to a more effective use of the Treasury's information
assets and making it easier to monitor the public accounts.
Given the continuing importance of cash for the general public, Banca d'Italia is an
active participant in the Eurosystem's work on designing the third series of euro
banknotes. In addition to a new look, this series boasts more technologically advanced
security features and will be environmentally sustainable.
In the meantime, the plan to restructure the branch network and expand its functions
has entered the implementation phase. The goal is to strengthen the role of the
branches in highly strategic business areas with greater growth potential, thereby
increasing the contribution the Bank can make locally.
I have stressed many times how the branches are one of the strengths of our
organization. Their roots in the local community, their ties with local institutions and their
proximity to economic and financial operators are essential components of the Bank's
operations. They are a valuable asset, which we will continue to put to good use.
At the same time, we must be mindful of the emerging needs of local communities and
developments in the economic and financial system. The reorganization plan, whose
impact on the staff is currently under discussion with the trade unions, aims to reinforce
the link between the Bank and its local stakeholders, while at the same time
strengthening the coordination and integration between the branches and the head
office. The goal is to ensure a more flexible organizational model, capable of effectively
balancing operations and resources.
Moving on to innovation, a comprehensive programme of initiatives is being finalized to
accelerate the Bank's digital transformation, with a view to improving the quality of the
services offered, raising operational efficiency and making the Bank more agile and
better equipped to face future challenges.
The programme is built around three main ideas: investing in cutting-edge technologies,
expanding the range of digital services and fostering a strategic and balanced use of
artificial intelligence; streamlining and innovating internal processes, thanks to the
integration of information systems and the exploitation of new technologies; and
completing the digitalization of document flows, further reducing recourse to
paperbased processes.
Digital transformation and the progressive streamlining of administrative work, with the
consequent reallocation of resources towards institutional functions and strategic
priorities, will be two pillars of the new Strategic Plan, to be drawn up by the beginning
of next year.
In keeping with our tradition, we will continue to invest in our people, knowing that the
success of any initiative hinges on their active participation, on the continuous
development of their skills and on leveraging their talent.
Proposal for the allocation of the net profit
Dear Shareholders,
Pursuant to Article 38 of the Statute, acting on a proposal of the Governing Board and
after hearing the opinion of the Board of Auditors, I present for your approval the Board
of Directors' proposal for the allocation of the net profit for 2024.
Under the current dividend policy, the amount paid to the Shareholders is kept within a
range of €340 million to €380 million, provided that the net profit is sufficient and without
prejudice to the Bank's capital adequacy.
Shareholders' dividends may fall outside this range if there is a strongly negative
profitability trend, as occurred last year.
Accordingly, from the net profit for 2024 of €844 million, I propose allocating €200
million as a dividend to the Shareholders, the same as in the previous year, and €644
million to the State, €29 million more than in 2023. To supplement the current dividend
allocated to the Shareholders, the amount of €140 million is released from the special
item for stabilizing dividends, which will therefore be brought to zero. The Shareholders
will thus receive a total of €340 million.
The total amount effectively allocated to the Shareholders over the last five years is
therefore €1,633 million, while the total allocated to the State over the same period in
the form of profits amounts to €14,406 million, in addition to the current taxes for IRES
and IRAP purposes of €3,361 million. | - Global uncertainty is elevated due to geopolitical and trade tensions, impacting international trade and slowing economic activity.
- The European economy, particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on international trade, is experiencing challenges from manufacturing sector stagnation.
- ECB's gradual lowering of key interest rates reflects progress in combatting inflation, yet credit is impacted by past monetary tightening and a weak business cycle.
- The battle against inflation is ongoing, necessitating vigilance on factors that could hinder achieving the 2% target.
- Monetary policy must balance economic weakness and geopolitical tensions against uncertainty from US trade policy announcements.
- High policy rates have negatively influenced Banca d'Italia's financial performance, reflecting in the 2024 Annual Accounts.
- ECB's gradual rate cuts and reduction in PEPP reinvestments have led to significant contractions in monetary policy operations and Eurosystem holdings, reducing excess liquidity.
- Bank of Italy's balance sheet shrank by €149 billion in 2024, driven by decreased refinancing operations and securities holdings.
- The financial result in 2024 was negative before risk provision release, due to higher interest costs on liabilities without increased yield from assets.
- A release from the general risk provision and tax carryforwards yielded a net profit of €0.8 billion for 2024.
- The primary Eurosystem goal remains price stability, not profit maximization, with financial independence vital for effective mandate performance.
- Digital euro initiatives and restructuring efforts aim at safeguarding monetary sovereignty and enhancing financial soundness.
- Banca d'Italia is advancing digital transformation to improve operational efficiency and service quality, leveraging cutting-edge technology and AI.
- Reorganization and modernization strategies are underway, boosting the Bank's capacity to respond to local and systemic developments.
- In 2024, a net profit allocation of €844 million is proposed, with €200 million as dividends and €644 million to the State, following past trends and ensuring capital adequacy. | Fabio Panetta | Banca d'Italia | IT | Governor | Governor | [
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] | null |
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