I&#x27;ve been thinking about this as well. Where my head&#x27;s at right now:<p>- Conscious AGI is not even close. Many fundamental breakthroughs in philosophy&#x2F;science required (binding problem, how sensations arise from physical processes, etc)<p>- Smart non-conscious AI approaching AGI requires getting the balance between many sub-modules correct (see openCog), and probably requires a lot of time and research to get right<p>- Non-conscious domain-specific supervised-learning has strong potential in the next 5-10 years (any problem a human can solve in a few milliseconds is a good candidate, but usually requires a lot of data to supervise the learning algorithm)