The &quot;imagine 1000 women...&quot; formulation definitely sounds easier to understand, but doctors do very poorly on it as well. Some numbers:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;12&#x2F;17&#x2F;statistical-literacy-among-doctors-now-lower-than-chance&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;slatestarcodex.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;12&#x2F;17&#x2F;statistical-literacy-am...</a><p>In practice things are not <i>quite</i> as dire as you&#x27;d expect, thanks to diagnostic guidelines written with input from people who know about conditional probability.