Taleb probably looked into Bailey&#x27;s earlier background, in particular his books <i>Ecoscam</i> and &quot;<i>The True State of the Planet</i>, and his CEI connections came to the conclusion that at the time he was clearly ideology-driven, if not perhaps a bit of kook (I&#x27;m not saying that&#x27;s what he is -- but his language at the time was quite strident, and one can&#x27;t be blamed for coming away from this impression).<p>He definitely seems to have sobered up a bit over the years (he&#x27;s taken up a much more reasonable stance on global warming, for example), but I don&#x27;t blame Taleb for applying the &quot;cautionary principle&quot; and walking a way from a situation that he suspected might have been something of a theatrical ambush (by being asked to debate someone who was perhaps rhetorically very well skilled, but somehow also caught up in a web of ideological, pseudo-rational thinking).