I think if you can master Bayes&#x27; Formula you&#x27;d have everything you need.  Slight note: takes many years to get an intuitive understanding.  <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.math.cornell.edu&#x2F;~mec&#x2F;2008-2009&#x2F;TianyiZheng&#x2F;Bayes.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.math.cornell.edu&#x2F;~mec&#x2F;2008-2009&#x2F;TianyiZheng&#x2F;Bayes...</a>