The iPad might be a lot more like the original iPod rather than like the iPhone. I don't think Creative or Nomad were cowering in fear after Apple's presentation in 2001.<p>The Apple of 2001 is certainly not the Apple of 2010, so it won't be all that similar, but relativly slow yet steadily accelerating uptake coinciding with constant evolutionary revisions seems plausible.<p>The only difference is that in 2001 not many cared whether the iPod would become a success or not. Apple was still the Mac company, that's no more the case today. If the iPad uptake is relativly slow we will most certainly see dozens of "iPad dead" articles within the first month the device starts selling.