Thanks for the comment.<p>If you have actual traffic stats I'd love to see them. ;)<p>Also, the estimate isn't for "a couple months", but for the past 12 months, and the trend points in one direction. Even less reliable but even more "damning" is Google Trends: <a href="http://google.com/trends?q=tumblr,+posterous&#38;ctab=0&#38;geo=all&#38;date=ytd&#38;sort=0" rel="nofollow">http://google.com/trends?q=tumblr,+posterous&#38;ctab=0&#38;...</a><p>That being said, your general point is right: nothing is preordained, and the trends could switch around tomorrow, and the picture look much different a while from now. But that's why I have a blog: this is the situation as I see it today. Maybe six months from now I'll eat my words, who knows?