iPad isn't a phone. iPod Touch isn't a phone. To the degree that these devices are successful, they will be replacing user-programmable devices from the bottom up.<p>It's all very well for you to "predict that within 2 years" everything will be fine. That's not the way it is today, and it's not the way it has been in the past. Everything I know about Apple tells me they have no love for developers whatsoever, and that their rise is one of the worst things that could happen to this industry in terms of open platforms. Apple likes their monopolies much, much more than MS does.