That's an excellent equilibrium analysis, and I completely agree with it. In the short run, treating protectionism as constant, retaliatory trade restrictions will harm the US as well as China.<p>The only flaw in that reasoning is that it treats tariffs as being unchangeable. China and other countries have eliminated protectionist policies in response to retaliation. As far as I know, no coast has even become less rocky in response to a blockaded harbor.