"If there weren't real fundamental problems with the security, stability and performance of Flash I don't think we'd be having this conversation at all."<p>But that always seems to be the way one technology gives way to another, because it improves on various aspects that were lacking in its predecessor.<p>I think an apt comparison is RealMedia versus RTSP audio streaming. RealMedia had a significant market share (for the time), but the mishandling of the product led to people finding/building/demanding better tech.<p>It's arguable whether Adobe is mishandling Flash at the same level, but Flash could easily go away in favor of HTML5 and Javascript.<p>The only thing lacking right now is the tools, and the Flash IDE would <i>not</i> be difficult to improve upon. On top of that, there's already precedent in the Palm Web OS IDE. Make a similar kind of interface for building easily deployable standards-based web applications, and Flash could end up as a bad dream faster than you think.