Some interesting thoughts.<p>The iPhone was far from complete when it was released.  What they did release was very polished.  They are still iterating somewhat when they tacked on 3G, the API, etc.  The iPhone was also launching into a mature market, as was the iPod.  I think many of us knew our smartphones sucked and had laundry lists of things that sucked about them.  Apple's real gamble was that people would spend large amounts of money on their phone.  They still gambled, but I think the need to make huge pivots and change everything was less likely.<p>Also, I think Apple has enough money where they can afford to have an unsuccessful product, unlike startups.  AppleTV hasn't taken off, and I think Apple will eventually launch a major dud, and will have spent a lot of money on it, but they can afford it.<p>Finally, Apple seems be really good at predicting what people will want.  This is rare.