Well the whole royalty situation is making Flash video look really good.  It solved similar issues when it launched to alleviate us of player hell in Windows Media Player, Real Player and Quicktime all breaking each other and fighting for  file extensions.  Flash has On2 and can play H.264. If Flash just could get hardware rendering support beyond full screen scaling, then they might have a fighting chance being that there is piles of money people will have to pay to make a content site.  The window is closing on the video shakeup and it will cost alot to run one very soon.