Again, it remains to be seen whether the Chinese economy meets the expectations of earlier forecasts.  I think a more realistic view is that the Chinese economy assumes a role in the region comparable to Germany&#x27;s in Europe.<p>Military ascendency is not just a simple product of economic ascendency however.  Geography plays a large role, as well as military history and institutional knowledge.  For example, one does not simply build a blue water navy.  China is practically starting from scratch when it comes to naval tradition, and when combined with geography will likely never pose a serious challenge to US naval primacy in the Pacific - regardless of comparative economic might.  Even at the height of its power the USSR never posed a serious threat to that primacy.  Bounded to its own regional theatre, the Chinese military will likely continue to be structured around anti-area access denial strategies.<p>However, increasing economic co-dependence is likely to make this entire topic moot.  Call me an optimist but I predict the extent of US-China naval engagement 20 years from now to consist of joint security exercises and disaster relief missions.