I think it&#x27;s a difficult question because &quot;guns&quot; are a moving target along two or so dimensions.  The obvious is rate of fire with an efficacy twist:<p>Muzzle loaded smooth-bore (short range, relatively fast to load).<p>Muzzle loaded rifle (long range, slow to load)<p>Then the muzzle loaded rifled musket, which used the Minié ball to achieve both, and great carnage in the Crimean War and our Civil War.<p>Now the developments are rapid:<p>Breach loaded single shot rifles.<p>Repeaters with relatively slow loading, with a move to smokeless powder.<p>Clip fed repeaters, a critical Mauser innovation.  With the 1898 model, the battle <i>rifle</i> is fully &quot;modern&quot;.  With of course effective semi-auto models to follow, plus the lower powered&#x2F;lower range assault rifle (and I can&#x27;t help but notice that the short ranged AK-47 is something a dictator would prefer to be issued, vs. something more able to reach out and touch him).<p>But ammo, going back to the rifled musket, we&#x27;re using corrosive primers, and black power residue attracts moisture.  That is, it takes a fair amount of diligent effort to keep a rifle from rusting out.<p>In 1911 the Swiss switched to non-corrosive primers, appropriate for their militia system.  Our first weapon with 100% non-corrosive primers was the WWII M1 Carbine, a weapon for officers and rear echelon troops.<p>So the likelihood of a less organized having a lot of functioning weapons increases with their using non-corrosive primers.  Or, in the case of the Soviets, using chromed barrels.<p>Now you have to factor in wealth.  Poor people who can&#x27;t afford much in the way of weapons aren&#x27;t going to have a chance here.  See e.g. Rwanda, where rifles didn&#x27;t play a big part on either side.<p>So ... what examples might we have?  The successful resistance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan is suggestive.  You might count Hitler deciding it wasn&#x27;t worth breaking 80 divisions to take (most of) Switzerland.<p>More than a few liberals had an epiphany about gun control in the dark days of Watergate ... how many dictators&#x2F;oligarchs&#x2F;tyrannical whatever <i>didn&#x27;t try</i>, or try very hard, because the cost would have been too great?<p>I&#x27;ll start looking for examples; today, all I <i>know</i> is case after case, USSR, PRC, Cuba, Nazi Germany, those are just the most prominent off the top of my head, where gun confiscations preceded slaughter.