You are not understanding &#x27;agarden&#x27;.  He is not super-imposing his beliefs, he&#x27;s stating the fact that LaDue had the almost certain capacity to enact his stated intent.   By contrast, someone can &#x27;want&#x27; to be a rock star, but even with the best application of effort they only have a small chance of achieving that goal.<p><pre><code>  &gt; Jumping to the conclusion that his teenage obsession&#x27;s 
  &gt; paraphernalia indicates that he would have done this is 
  &gt; silly. There&#x27;s no way to know if there is ever any 
  &gt; correlation between the two.
</code></pre>
I think you are confusing &quot;correlation&quot; with &quot;certainty&quot;.  I&#x27;d hope we agree that a teenager found with a storage locker full of explosives and an express desire to kill lots of people is more likely to be involved in mass violence than a teenager selected at random?  This is a correlation.  One can question how strong the correlation is, and whether there might be stronger correlations (what would these be?) but it is false to say that &quot;There&#x27;s no way to know if there is ever any correlation between the two.&quot;