You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we&#x27;re likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas.<p>No, it isn&#x27;t going to be overnight, but like most transitions, it&#x27;s going to happen far more quickly than you think. In 1905 people thought that most people would still be using horses in a century, that cars were just too expensive and niche, that horses were good enough. Horses were obsolete within 15 years of private automobiles being a thing - by 1920 more freight was hauled and more passenger-miles were travelled by internal combustion than horse, in the US.<p>EVs have been around for seven years, in a &quot;real&quot; form, give or take, their adoption rate is similar to that of the original gasoline automobiles when compared to horses.<p>I give it seven more years before they&#x27;re dominant.<p>I&#x27;m also putting my money where my mouth is, and I&#x27;ve been buying up nice dirt cheap houses on busy, noisy, polluted roads. They&#x27;ll be nice, not so cheap houses on less busy, quiet, clean roads in fifteen years.