Metaculus prediction pool has it at 30% likely to be verified by end of summer : <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.metaculus.com&#x2F;questions&#x2F;41&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.metaculus.com&#x2F;questions&#x2F;41&#x2F;</a>