&gt; You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we&#x27;re likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas.<p>Sorry, that isn&#x27;t likely. We have basically &quot;infinite&quot; (50+ years worth) of Oil @ $100 [1] [2] [3] a barrel which is why all those shale wells came online when oil was priced higher. We&#x27;ve already been ~$100 for years at a time. Similarly, the shift to greener technologies is going to put downward pressure on it once it is back to the ~$100 baseline from years past.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2016-02-03&#x2F;texas-toughness-in-oil-patch-shows-why-u-s-still-strong-at-30" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2016-02-03&#x2F;texas-toug...</a><p>[2] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;rrapier&#x2F;2016&#x2F;02&#x2F;29&#x2F;the-break-even-cost-for-shale-oil&#x2F;#76f96ccee792" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;rrapier&#x2F;2016&#x2F;02&#x2F;29&#x2F;the-break-eve...</a><p>[3] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;08&#x2F;20&#x2F;us-crude-oils-break-even-cost-how-low-can-it-go.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;08&#x2F;20&#x2F;us-crude-oils-break-even-cost...</a>