This report[0] (from 2014, but the trends cited seem to have continued from other places) have cited the end of 2-year upgrade incentives (or rather, cheaper monthly fees after 2 years) as a primary reason for a drop in cellphone sales.<p>In particular, in 2013 40% of respondants would upgrade phones after 2 years... in 2014 that number dropped to  15%.<p>At the same time, the number of people who said they would upgrade at &quot;obsolesence&quot; went from 15% to 35%.<p>There&#x27;s a decent amount of evidence that 2-year contracts trigger a lot of phone upgrading. The end of that whole cycle is going to continue to cause pain to anyone selling cells.<p>[0]:<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;reconanalytics.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;02&#x2F;2014-us-mobile-phone-sales-fall-by-15-and-handset-replacement-cycle-lengthens-to-historic-high&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;reconanalytics.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;02&#x2F;2014-us-mobile-phone-sales...</a>