@gus_massa I revised my post in response to the &quot;primaries aren&#x27;t independent&quot; criticism: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;flightfromperfection.com&#x2F;trump-wins-50-in-5-revised.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;flightfromperfection.com&#x2F;trump-wins-50-in-5-revised.h...</a><p>I still don&#x27;t have an easy way of estimating the conjunct probability of multiple, correlated events. Interested if you have a take on that.