&gt;&gt; &quot;the state of knowledge about a project is at its lowest at the beginning&quot;<p>Sounds like the Cone of Uncertainty:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Cone_of_Uncertainty" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Cone_of_Uncertainty</a>