&gt; <i>The problem is that each step in the process is variable, and it&#x27;s not variable by a small amount but potentially up to a magnitude. That&#x27;s the problem.</i><p>That&#x27;s not unique to game development. Or software. Or any industry, really.<p>&gt; <i>The second problem is that the industry does not pay for reasonable estimates, they want imperfect unreasonable estimates which are very conservative with which to beat the employee or the contractor over the head with to force overtime and crunch.</i><p>Of course, but that&#x27;s because the estimate is not being treated as an <i>estimate</i>. It&#x27;s being treated as a plan, or a goal.<p>I read a book called <i>Industrial Megaprojects</i> in which the author, talking about civil and industrial projects on a gigabuck scale, lamented the same problems.