1&#x2F; I&#x27;m clearly not using duration as in bonds or portfolios.<p>2&#x2F; I wouldn&#x27;t trust an economist&#x27;s analysis of network protocols. I also don’t trust an economist when he’s talking macro.<p>3&#x2F; When somebody asks me, I&#x27;m happy to say that I (and many others) have been expecting depreciation and inflation for 5+ years. Being wrong for the past 5 years would still have made money because the yen has already dropped so much. But true, it’s a trickle, not a flood.<p>4&#x2F; Japan’s near future is not really complex. Demographics are only getting worse in the next few years; and the entire world is drowning in excess capacity. In this environment, their govt is acutely running out of its traditional funding sources.<p>They start borrowing from the rest of the world, but then yields will rise (further increasing their already fantastic debt servicing expense, exacerbating the problem). Or they take the easy way to (nominal) growth and pass the bill to yen holders. Which is what they&#x27;ve been doing since 2012.<p>The double digit inflation prediction will have very rapid onset once we get there.