I was able to find this from the Congressional Budget Office<p>&gt; Estimates of pavement damage by trucks, the largest per-mile external cost of truck use, range from about 5 to 55 cents per mile depending on the weight of the truck, the number of axles over which its weight is distributed, and where it operates....<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cbo.gov&#x2F;sites&#x2F;default&#x2F;files&#x2F;112th-congress-2011-2012&#x2F;reports&#x2F;01-19-highwayspending_brief.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cbo.gov&#x2F;sites&#x2F;default&#x2F;files&#x2F;112th-congress-2011-...</a><p>The fuel tax is 30 cents&#x2F;gallon of diesel, which for an 18-wheeler getting a typical 6 mpg is about 5 cents &#x2F; mile.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Fuel_taxes_in_the_United_States" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Fuel_taxes_in_the_United_State...</a><p>So at the absolute highest end of that estimate you need to increase fuel taxes to $3&#x2F;gallon, i.e., double the price of fuel to ~$6&#x2F;gallon.  That would make trucking 40% more expensive (since that&#x27;s the fraction of operating costs devoted to fuel).<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thetruckersreport.com&#x2F;infographics&#x2F;cost-of-trucking&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thetruckersreport.com&#x2F;infographics&#x2F;cost-of-trucki...</a><p>And a more realistic number might be closer to 20% or 30% more expensive.  This would change things on the margins, but it&#x27;s not clear to me that it would be transformative in pushing transport to trains.