The prediction is not &quot;crisis&quot;. It&#x27;s hyperinflation and runaway depreciation of the yen.<p>In terms of duration: I would say they are one regular recession away from this. For the last 5 years I&#x27;ve been saying &quot;next 2 years&quot;. Today I&#x27;d say 1 year. (I have no actual money involved so this prediction is worthless. But you asked for it...)<p>It was the same with Greece: people had months or even years to yank their money from the bank. The trainwreck was telegraphed way in advance. It&#x27;s just that nobody did it because they couldn&#x27;t imagine it.<p>It&#x27;s a similar psychological process that is keeping Japanese markets disciplined for such a long time.<p>By contrast, in a country like Argentina people have living memories of monetary disasters and they trigger much quicker.