I&#x27;ve realized in my life trying to predict macro is pretty damn hard.  Because even if something is irrational, it might be in a whole bunch of very powerful group&#x27;s interests to keep on propping up the irrational for a very long time.<p>For example, I come from Vancouver.  In Vancouver, the 2007 real estate bubble never stopped, wages stayed at their Reno, NV levels. Having Vancouver RE has had about a %30 annualized return for about 15 years.  Now an average house is about 1.5-2 million dollars.  The housing market is completely irrational, but knowing how it works it might be another &#x27;boom&#x27; decade or it might all collapse on itself in the next few years.