I don&#x27;t think it&#x27;s actually a good indicator because performance is affected by <i>so many</i> important factors—including things like the direct manager and the rest of the team.<p>What it is, rather, is the IBM effect in reverse. Regardless of how good a predictor it really is, common knowledge is that it really matters. If you add a random new worker to the team and it doesn&#x27;t work out, well, these things happen. If you have someone with a classic &quot;red flag&quot; (most of which are either highly exaggerated or complete bullshit) and it doesn&#x27;t work out, it&#x27;s all your fault.<p>Of course, in reality, the same factors dominate in both cases—things don&#x27;t always work out, but that&#x27;s only to be expected. But woe if you can be blamed for it!