Indeed given that in the real world a false alarm is far more likely than an actual inbound missile strike, <i>maintaining a convincing illusion of willingness to carry out tit-for-tat&quot; is a far better survival strategy than one which involves actually launching the nukes. If you&#x27;re too late to retaliate, it doesn&#x27;t really make much difference to your civilians&#x27; survival rates but it certainly does if you fire prematurely when the enemy </i>wasn&#x27;t* in the process of escalating the conflict