Someone's already using that email. If thatâs you, enter your Email and password here to sign in.
In the context of Figure 4, the P50 cost is represented as âcâ dollars. The P50 estimate is one with equal chance of project overruns or underruns up till when the project scope can be finalised. The P90 value is an estimate of the project cost based on a 90% probability that the cost will not be exceeded.his arises as the P90 cost estimation was adopted at the early stage during project scoping. Had the P50 cost estimate been adopted, there would have been a deviation of $7 million between the actual ($69 million) and budgeted P50 figure ($62 million). The project would have been under-budgeted.
P50 (and P90, Mean, Expected and P10). When probabilistic Monte Carlo type evaluations are adopted, this is a statistical confidence level for an estimate. P50 is defined as 50% of estimates exceed the P50 estimate (and by definition, 50% of estimates are less than the P50 estimate).It is a good middle estimate.Mean and Expected (same level of measure just different names) usually lie about the P40-P30 levels in oil field evaluations and are therefore high estimates.50 is defined as 50% of estimates exceed the P50 estimate (and by definition, 50% of estimates are less than the P50 estimate).