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Early Losses, Close Higher
NEW YORK, March 10 TP).‰ÛÓ The stock market overcame a mid-session stumble today to finish with a modest advance.</br></br>Trading volume at 1,530,000 shares fell somewhat behind Monday‰Ûªs total of 1,600,000, but there were occasional pickups in speed as prices improved late in the day.</br></br>The Associated Press average of 60 stocks advanced 20 cents at $114. Industrials were up 50 cents and rails 20 cents while utilities, affected by ‰ÛÏex-divi-dent‰Û trading in American Telephone, dipped 10 cents.</br></br>Individual corporate news depressed some issues. Holland furnace was down 3% at 18% after directions reduced the dividend to 25 cents from 50 cents previously paid.</br></br>Celanese lost a point at 31 after reporting 1952 earnings equal to 77 cents a share against $3.56 a share in the preceding year. Phelps Dodge earned $3.45 a share last year against $4.24 in 1951, and the stock dropped % of a point at 40.
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'We're Just Getting Clobbered'; States' Budget Squeeze Takes Toll on Programs and People
Every weekday at the Erie Neighborhood House on this city's North Side, feisty 4- and 5-year-olds file into classrooms that bear names such as Sunflower and Daffodil to play with Legos and dinosaurs and receive their daily lessons in Spanish and English.</br></br>Their parents, depending on the family income, pay as little as $4.33 a month for the all-day child care that costs as much as $250 a week on the open market, an enormous sum for the many who are recent immigrants working two or three jobs to survive.</br></br>But the sounds of children playing and learning in these classrooms may soon be silenced as part of a belt-tightening proposal by Gov. George Ryan (R) that would do away with a $184 million early childhood grant that subsidizes pre-kindergarten classes for 220,000 low-income children around the state.</br></br>Illinois, like nearly every other state, is facing lean times for the first time in years. Tax revenue is well below expectations, the cost of health care is exploding and higher costs for unemployment claims and new security initiatives are taxing already thin budgets. Everything is on the table -- including tax incentives for businesses, public education money and programs aimed at the poor, disabled and elderly -- as governors and state lawmakers try to make up more than $40 billion worth of budget shortfalls.</br></br>In Maryland, the state Senate yesterday gave preliminary approval to a new austerity budget that would slow spending after years of dramatic increases while preserving a scheduled 2 percent income tax cut. Virginia, with an annual budget of about $25 billion, approved new spending plans last week that cut social programs and other services while increasing fees and college tuitions to close a budget gap estimated at $3.8 billion for the next 2 1/2 years.
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Buyer Confidence Up Sharply for '77
vasiiiiigton post Btaif writer *"veyed complained, that jobs are ‰ÛÏhard NEW YORK, Jan. 9‰ÛÓConsumer cAn- get,‰Û he said, down only slightly fidence, which had been depressed flatun the October figure of 40 per much of 1976, advanced sharply in Bent.</br></br>ccmber to its highest level in nearly aperhaps the most dramatic part of year, according to the latest Conff^-e new survey is the surge in buying ence Board survey of consumer serULns<</br></br>The improvement was tied to botlia.e t0 10 r cent in December from strengthening of economic fundam^ per cent jn 0ctober. And car.buy.</br></br>CmTeridmilds^tionå¡Ut thG incorn^1S Plans are now only slightly below Caitei administration. the peak levels of last February when to 122.0 last month as consumers nifieantly stepped up their plans purchase automobiles, homes and i plianccs and to take vacations o; the next six months. . :</br></br>me in the next six months, up from .g per cent in October. The liome-ftying series of the index is now at jj. highest level since 1973. And of. Fiose polled, 31.4 per cent said they' qfend to buy a major appliance some |gie during the first half of 1977, up moiillis 'of‰ÛT976,**with*Christmas^rct&P111 2G 9 ')er cent in Octobe>--sales coming in stronger than ex^The Conference Board consumer pcctcd. And the results of the curnftWfldenee index stood at 93.3 last Conference Board survey should bilPbruary, dropped to 82.2 in April, stcr those economists who see a rndtuse again to 86.7 in June, stayed confident consumer fueling anew steady until October when it declined coloration in the U.S. e c o 11 o m ytbs80.2, and then registered tiie brisk growth rate after the mid-1976 slaoltmb in the latest survey in Dcccm-down. ber to reach 91.2
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Property Tax Rebels Targeting Assessments Are Fighting the Wrong Enemy
I live in one of those neighborhoods where watching house prices leap-frog is a major spectator sport.</br></br>Every new "For Sale" sign is an economic indicator. Every open house is another ticket in a lottery where every buyer wins. Every moving van is a validation of the investment wisdom that led to the purchase of a white-washed cottage that's now worth 10 times what it cost to build. Even today, my neighborhood inflation rate regularly runs in the orange and red zone of the real estate section's monthly map of price changes, up 10, 20 percent or more annually at a time when many markets are stalling out.</br></br>But the days when all the owners celebrated each incremental increase in the value of their houses are over. The talk these days is "tax revolt." A guy down the block is organizing the oppressed owners of $300,000 and $400,000 houses against the tyranny of taxes that are escalating along with home prices.</br></br>The property tax system was pretty much okay with most people as long as they didn't have too much property to be taxed. They accepted the principle of taxing property and the corollary that if you're going to base levies on people's accumulated wealth, you have to keep close track of how much wealth they have accumulated by regularly reassessing their property.</br></br>Now, however, folks who would never fudge a nickel on their 1040 forms have decided that equally accurate assessments of their property values are outrageous. Stunned by 60, 70 and 80 percent jumps in assessed values of their houses-and corresponding increases in property taxes-they're demanding a limit to assessment increases. No more than 15 percent a year is the rallying cry of the Montgomery County property tax revolutionaries.
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Stocks Close Mixed After Gaining: Late Profit Taking
NEW YORK, July 24 (AP)‰ÛÓLate profit taking rubbed out some early gains and left the stock market mixed today.</br></br>A smattering of specially situated issues still managed to rack up smart gains. Brokers blamed the afternoon price erosion on normal pre-weekend proni taking and invesiui caution prompted by recent sharp advances. Trading activity dwindled when prices skidded. Transactions totaled</br></br>The market rushed higher at the start but, when the upswing failed to gather momentum, prices faltered slightly.</br></br>Steels showed renewed strength with Youngstown Sheet A: Tube pacing the group by picking up 2 after the company reported a sharp upturn in first half profit. Many aircrafts also stepped higher. Rubbers, electronics, metals, chemicals, oils, tobaccos, utilities and'railroads were mixed.</br></br>The Associated Press average of 60 stocks dipped 10 cents to $231.80 with the industrials up 10 cents, the rails down $1 and the utilities up 20 cents.
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Obama Budget Proposes Broader Unemployment Taxes
Author: Jonathan Weisman; Damian Paletta</br></br>WASHINGTON--President Barack Obama's budget proposal is expected to give states a way to collect more payroll taxes from businesses, in an effort to replenish the unemployment-insurance program. The plan could cause controversy at a time when the administration is seeking to mend fences with corporate America.</br></br>The proposal would aim to restock strained state unemployment-insurance trust funds by raising the amount of wages on which companies must pay unemployment taxes to $15,000, more than double the $7,000 in place since 1983.</br></br>The plan, which would take effect in 2014, could increase payroll taxes by as much as $100 billion over a decade, according to a person involved in its construction.</br></br>By proposing to enlarge the pool of wages subject to unemployment taxes, the White House appears to be offering states a more politically palatable way to raise revenues than to boost tax rates. States could keep the tax rates they have, or even lower them somewhat, and still raise considerably more revenue than they are raising now.
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Economy Has `Staying Power,' Says Greenspan
The U.S. economy has emerged from its winter "soft patch" and is back on solid footing, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday.</br></br>"Although not all of the uncertainties have been resolved . . . the current economic expansion seems to have exhibited staying power," Greenspan told the House Budget Committee. "The most recent reports on inflation also have been reasonably encouraging."</br></br>Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee unanimously recommended that the Senate confirm President Clinton's appointment of the Fed chairman to a third, four-year term.</br></br>The Banking Committee similarly approved the nominations of White House budget director Alice M. Rivlin as vice chairman and St. Louis economist Laurence H. Meyer as a member of the Federal Reserve Board.</br></br>Greenspan attributed much of the slowdown in economic growth late last year to businesses bringing their inventories in line with reduced sales expectations, which caused a drop in production. "Much, but perhaps not all, of the needed inventory correction already has been accomplished," he said.
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June 13 - 17; This Week: GOP Debate, Greek Respite, RIM Trouble
U.S.</br></br>AARP, the powerful lobbying group for older Americans, is dropping its longstanding opposition to cutting Social Security benefits. Given the group's immense clout, the shift could dramatically affect the debate over the future of the federal safety net, from pensions to health care. Separately, a House subcommittee that oversees Social Security called for an investigation into how judges approve disability benefits. Over at Biden's bipartisan debt-reduction talks, officials familiar with the talks said they expected Medicaid to be the biggest source of cuts in federal entitlement programs in whatever compromise emerges. And White House officials this week told lawmakers in the Biden group that Obama would be open to payroll tax breaks for employers and employees, as fresh concerns over slowing job growth spill into the talks.</br></br>The potential for a persistent slowdown in hiring is the biggest threat to the U.S. recovery, according to economists in a Wall Street Journal survey who now expect the economy to add about 2.2 million jobs over the next 12 months, down from last month's forecast of 2.5 million jobs. Good employees are still prized: Many U.S. companies that cut 401(k) matching contributions during the recession are starting to restore them, or a slimmed-down version of them, to reward and retain staff amid the decline of traditional pension plans and mounting concern over the long-term viability of Social Security.</br></br>The head of the ATF is expected to be ousted over the anti-gun-trafficking operation that has grown into the agency's biggest scandal in decades.</br></br>Only 35% of fourth-graders knew the purpose of the Declaration of Independence in taking the latest national history test.
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The Outlook: Capital Spending Will Boost Recovery
NEW YORK -- This is a recovery that may need all the help it can muster. The economy as a whole has been expanding for a year, but mostly at a snail's pace and far more slowly than is normal in the early stages of a business-cycle upswing. The unemployment rate hangs stubbornly above 7%, higher than when the recovery began. And new-home starts, a rare bright spot during most of 1991 and early this year, fell sharply in April.</br></br>Help is clearly needed, but is any on the way? Perhaps. A likely source, as important as it is unexciting: capital spending.</br></br>Such outlays, typically for new plant and equipment, tend to lag behind the economy as a whole. The Commerce Department, in fact, classifies plant-and-equipment spending, adjusted for inflation, as a lagging economic indicator at points in the business cycle when, as now, the economy is emerging from a slump. Such spending invariably fell, for example, in the early months of four other recoveries since 1969.</br></br>This pattern has occurred again in the current recovery. In last year's second quarter, as the recovery was just beginning to take hold, plant-and-equipment spending fell to an annual rate of some $487 billion, in terms of the 1987 dollar's buying power; this was $9 billion less than in the previous quarter. But more recently an impressive climb has taken place: The spending level recently moved above $525 billion.</br></br>Further substantial increases seem probable. Most forecasters look for the recovery to persist and broaden in coming months. In the process, businesses will need to expand their facilities appreciably. Indeed, the task could become urgent if the recovery should prove unexpectedly brisk. After much restructuring and many plant closings, manufacturers already are using nearly 80% of their capacity.
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Coup Rumors Persist in Peru;Guerrilla War Aggravates Economic Crisis
Peruvian military officers or their emissaries have filed into the U.S. Embassy here in recent months with a question: As crisis after crisis besets Peru's hapless government, is the United States still serious about its opposition to a military coup?</br></br>Economic disaster, social turmoil and escalating political violence have put Peru's young democracy under siege. Coup rumors last month included reports that a specific date and even an hour had been chosen for the tanks to roll.</br></br>U.S. Ambassador Alexander F. Watson was alarmed enough to make known unequivocally that the United States does not want to see a coup. That clear stance and similar attitudes on the part of other South American democracies-along with lukewarm support on the Peruvian right and reluctance by many officers to take on the country's daunting problems-are credited with helping to keep the military in the barracks.</br></br>But even the most optimistic scenarios have President Alan Garcia's crippled government just muddling through until the next presidential elections. "There's sort of an uneasy sense of hope right now," said Mirko Lauer, a columnist for the daily newspaper La Republica. "The government may make it after all to 1990."</br></br>Garcia took office four years ago at the age of 35, the youngest elected head of state in Latin America's history and at first very popular. But now Garcia's government and his party, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance, have lost not just popularity, but credibility and authority as well.
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Keeping Your Head, And Your Shirt, In Uncertain Times
After a quarter such as the past one, when equity markets worldwide climbed to multiyear highs, dropped like a stone and then bounced, what's a small investor to do?</br></br>Retail investors have a history of overreacting to market swings in harmful ways. They poured into technology stocks right before the bubble burst in 2000, and many of them were so shell-shocked by the ensuing decline that they piled out of equities altogether and missed most of the bull market of the past three years.</br></br>"What happens is a perverse form of market timing, rushing in at high prices and panicking out at low prices," said Richard Hoey, chief economist for Dreyfus Corp. "It's a mistake for you to assume you know what is going to happen in the market in the future," Hoey said.</br></br>Follow the long-term plan. Most financial advisers suggest that investors follow an asset-allocation strategy with fixed percentages of their money in bonds, cash and various types of stocks, such as large U.S. companies, small companies and international companies. Over the past three years, small-company stocks and stocks in the developing world have shot up much faster than those of large American companies, so many investors may find their portfolios out of balance. Now might be a good time to capture some of the gains and reinvest the profits in areas that haven't grown as quickly.</br></br>"If you were biting your nails during the last downturn, it might be a sign you need to diversify. If you've got a lot of money in emerging markets or small-cap stocks, quit it or at least don't put any more in," said Russ Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Morningstar Inc.
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The Washington Post THE MARKET
NEW YORK, March 11‰ÛÓThe stock market posted a moderate loss today, weakening near the close of an erratic session.</br></br>The Dow Jones average of 30 industrials, up about 14 points in the early going, finished with an 11.11 loss at 2268.98. The average climbed 19.97 points on Tuesday.</br></br>Volume on The New York Stock Exchange reached 186.88 million shares, up from 174.76 million in the previous session.</br></br>On one hand, they said, money managers at investing institutions were eager tobe heavily invested in the market by the end of March, so as not to show any large cash positions in their quarterly reports to clients in the midst of a vigorous bull market.</br></br>On the negative side, however, many Wall Streeters are worried about possible periods of volatility with a ‰ÛÏtriple witching hour‰Û approaching on March 20.
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Dow Up 23 Points in Light Trading
Wall Street stocks began the week on a positive note today, rising strongly on hopes of lower interest rates after two disappointing sessions, but volume was extremely light.</br></br>The Dow Jones industrial average finished up 22.94 points at 3376.03, and gainers outpaced losers by about 10 to 7.</br></br>The gains came with little gusto. Volume registered about 150 million shares, making it the third slowest day of 1992.</br></br>"People are moving to the sidelines to see which way Fed policy is going to go," said Bob Walberg of MMS International.</br></br>The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, which sets short-term interest rate policy, meets Tuesday. Some investors speculate a further easing of credit could be coming.
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Moving the Market -- Tracking the Numbers / What's Hot...and Not: Investors Get Aggressive as Oil and Dollar Plunge; Hard Chargers Bet Big On Economic Recovery, More Woes for U.S. Dollar
A quirky mix of assets and markets world-wide has benefited from the simultaneous plunge of crude oil and the U.S. dollar, and strategists are pushing advice that hinges on the continuation of those trends.</br></br>No surprise, other commodities besides oil have rallied on the dollar's woes, as have overseas investments, especially companies that produce or sell natural resources. The Dow Jones Japan Financial Index and Dow Jones World Basic Materials Index each gained more than 9% last week. Since November, the Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of shipping costs closely linked to raw-material prices, has jumped nearly 25% to 6134. Gold futures are up 6.6% over the same period to $457.80 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.</br></br>But stock sectors usually associated with more-aggressive investment strategies, such as technology, have also benefited: The Dow Jones World Technology Index gained almost 8% last week. And the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.2%, up 8.8% since November, to 2147.96.</br></br>The upshot, many analysts say, is that investors are betting not just on a continuation of world economic recovery and U.S. dollar weakness, but they are also doing so in especially hard-charging fashion. "This is the theme right now, big time," says James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist, Wells Capital Management. "People want to be in whatever the most aggressive thing is and get away from the least aggressive."</br></br>Mr. Paulsen says he believes there is good reason to expect a global recovery, although a weak U.S. jobs report Friday showed that there may yet be a few potholes along the way. The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls grew by only 112,000 jobs in November, well below the 200,000 jobs economists had expected before the data release.
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Energy Sector Seizes Selling Window --- Bond Issuers Look to Gather Capital as Market Improves; S&P Sees Lingering Risks
NEW YORK -- Energy companies have been among the most aggressive at taking advantage of a reopening of the corporate-bond market recently.</br></br>Since the beginning of last week, seven energy-related companies have sold bonds.</br></br>Those issuers were looking to fund continuing capital programs at a point when improving market sentiment had opened the borrowing window. They present a stark contrast to energy companies such as Dynegy Inc. and Williams Cos., which have been selling assets in a bid to stave off further deterioration of credit ratings.</br></br>Yet a report Wednesday by Standard & Poor's analyst Suzanne Smith cautioned that "it is not only struggling companies that command attention. S&P's current focus is on liquidity for all companies in the power and energy industry."</br></br>S&P said the energy sector is under a "cloud" of some $30 billion in shorter-term loans used to finance initial power-plant construction that will need to be refinanced within the next 18 to 24 months. It added that "the power and energy industry faces an unprecedented confluence of operational and financial challenges, making ample liquidity a much more important component of credit analysis."
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Fed's Rate Cut Spurs Rallies in Asia, Americas; Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Brazil Jump
Tuesday's quarter-point cut in U.S. interest rates continued to underpin a rally in many of the world's stock markets, driving the Dow Jones World Stock Index up 0.34 point, or 0.18%, to 189.36.</br></br>Stocks in Asia and the Americas, in particular, welcomed the rate cut as likely paving the way for lower domestic interest rates in emerging markets. Hong Kong initially rallied 2%, but gave up a lot of the gains to end just 0.6% higher. Elsewhere, the Philippines was up 2.3%, Indonesia up 3.9%, Singapore up 2.9%, and Japan up 1.3%.</br></br>In the Americas, Brazil continued its rallying streak to close up 2.6%, benefiting from last week's news of a big financial rescue package and Tuesday's U.S. rate cut. The Bank of Canada yesterday followed the Fed's easing with a cut in its key rate, but the move failed to inspire Canadian stocks, which rose just 0.1%.</br></br>European markets ended mixed, with Sweden up 1.9%, Switzerland up 0.9% and France up 0.3%, while decliners included Germany, down 0.4%, and London, down 0.5%.</br></br>In Asia on Thursday, Tokyo closed the morning session down 0.5%, while South Korea was up 0.9% at midday. In early dealings, Indonesia had jumped 1.7%, Hong Kong had gained about 1%, but Malaysia was down 1.3%.
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Financial Shares Put Brakes on the Market
Wall Street wilted Tuesday as investors awaiting next week's Federal Reserve meeting remained uneasy that the fallout from the slumping housing market could bring more bank losses and drag the economy into recession.</br></br>The Dow Jones industrial average fell 65.84, or 0.49 percent, to 13,248.73. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 9.63, or 0.65 percent, to 1462.79, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 17.30, or 0.66 percent, to 2619.83.</br></br>Retreating oil prices and signs of strength in non-financial industries could not keep the stock market from declining for a second consecutive day. Investors have tiptoed into December, which is usually a winning month on Wall Street; most expect lower rates after the Fed meets Tuesday, but the size of the cut is under debate.</br></br>Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan Chase downgraded major securities firms, warning that while further write-offs of bad mortgage debt might help the firms' stocks, longer-term concerns about their risk management might hurt their overall valuation. J.P. Morgan lowered its earnings estimates for some of Wall Street's biggest players: Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.</br></br>Those investment banks and other financial companies fell, including Washington Mutual, Citigroup, Bank of America, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and J.P. Morgan itself. The financial sector has been dragging on the broader market since the summer. A report by D.A. Davidson analysts said bank stocks are at three- to four-year lows.
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CAB Head Kahn Named to Lead Inflation Fight: CAB Head Kahn Named to Lead Inflation Figl
President Carter named Civil Aeronautics Board Chairman Alfred E. Kahn to head his new anti-inflation effort yesterday amid general skepticism at home and abroad about its chances for success.</br></br>On foreign money markets, the dollar plunged to new lows and gold prices hit new heights within hours after Carter unveiled his new program ‰ÛÓhis third since taking office‰ÛÓon Tuesday night.</br></br>In this country, business leaders offered selective support, praising Carter‰Ûªs pledge to curb government spending and deficits. The huge Teamsters union, which will lead off next year‰Ûªs heavy round of collective bargaining, also indicated support, but of a heavily qualified kind. Other unions remained silent.</br></br>Within the government, officials were gearing up machinery to monitor compliance with the new wage and price guidelines, readying detailed rules for formal promulgation within a week or so and manning telephone banks to answer questions from business and labor leaders.</br></br>The plan calls on workers to limit wage increases to 7 percent a year and companies to restrain prices by a less specific formula, with limited government sanctions for violators and a tax rebate to encourage compliance. It is designed to reduce inflation from its present level of nearly 8 percent to between 6 and 6*6 percent next year.
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Retailing: Tough Economic Times Are Knocking Stuffing Out of Many Furniture Stores
Homer's Furniture Co. survived two World Wars, the Great Depression and close calls from cutthroat competitors and building slumps. But Homer's couldn't survive the current crunch, which has wiped out hundreds of furniture stores across the country.</br></br>Based in Chicago, Homer's was known for custom-crafted furnishings, once using extra-high cushions to make a sofa more accessible for a paraplegic couple. But by making its own furniture, the family-owned chain had high fixed costs. Then the recession cut customer traffic. Discount wars ate up margins. Specialty stores siphoned sales. In 1991, Homer's lost money for the second consecutive year, and the company's creditor shut Homer's five stores on New Year's Eve.</br></br>"When it happens, it's like a loved one lying in bed dying, and one day he closes his eyes," says Chairman Marvin Homer, whose immigrant father founded the company in 1912 with four brothers. "I felt numb."</br></br>The home-furnishing business has taken a beating this recession as consumers have decided they can do without new $1,200 wicker sofas and $700 paisley poufs. Retail sales of furniture fell 6% last year, to $28.19 billion, the second consecutive yearly decline in inflation-adjusted dollars, according to Wallace Epperson, an analyst at Mann Armistead & Epperson, based in Richmond, Va. More than 1,800 furniture-store companies went out of business in the first 10 months of last year, up 21% from the year-ago period, reports Dun & Bradstreet Corp.</br></br>Not just the mom and pop operations are failing. This month, Seaman Furniture Co., operating under heavy debt after going private four years ago, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy-law protection from creditors. The furniture retailer, based in Uniondale, N.Y., said it plans to close 15 of its 37 stores. The wreckage is even worse in Southern California, land of high rents and upscale upholstery, where Barker Bros., RB Furniture Inc. and at least two other major retail furniture chains have filed for bankruptcy protection in recent months.
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KKR Pumps $1.2 Billion Into Struggling Payment Processor First Data; Firm Has Been in the Red Since Its $26 Billion Leveraged Buyout in 2007
KKR & Co. pumped $1.2 billion into First Data Corp., an unusual move showing that its debt-fueled takeover of the payment processor seven years ago remains a burden for the buyout firm.</br></br>Credit-card processor First Data has been in the red since KKR took it over in 2007 for roughly $26 billion in one of the largest-ever private-equity buyouts. For a while, KKR refinanced First Data's hefty debt load to ease pressure on the company. Now, it is injecting equity as part of a $3.5 billion investment that includes $2 billion from pension funds, mutual funds, asset managers and wealthy individuals, KKR said Thursday. The total investment, among the largest of its kind, gives First Data a boost as it tries to rebound from previous losses and reshape its business.</br></br>KKR will invest $500 million from its fund that did the original buyout and another $700 million from its own cash, or balance sheet, the firm said.</br></br>Private-equity firms rarely put additional cash into a company they have bought years after closing the deal. Instead, these firms--which buy companies largely with borrowed money--often pay themselves by having the company borrow more money. Owners eventually try to sell companies or take them public. In the past couple of years, with stocks on the rise, conditions have been ripe for private-equity firms to sell out of investments they have held for years, including some stragglers.</br></br>But KKR hasn't been able to shed Atlanta-based First Data, which was weighed down by an outsize debt load taken on in the takeover. Thursday's deal gives First Data, which employs about 23,000 people and processes credit-card and debit-card payments for merchants and banks, additional cash to reduce by $375 million its annual interest payments on debt, KKR said.
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Unemployment Down a Notch in January to 63%
Unemployment continued to decline in January, edging down from 6.4 per-cent to 6.3 percent, the Labor Department reported yesterday. The figures confirmed that the dramatic December improvement in employment was not an accident.</br></br>The January level is the lowest since October 1974. In December the rate tumbled from 6.7 percent to 6.4 percent.</br></br>White House press secretary Jody Powell" told reporters that the President ‰ÛÏobviously feels that the improvement in the unemployment picture is good news.‰Û But Powell quickly added that steady improvement in the economic situation should not call into question the ‰ÛÏneed lor a tax cut.‰Û</br></br>Carter has proposed a $25 billion tax cut to take effect Oct. 1. The president argues that the effects of the economic stimulus package Congress enacted last year will be wearing off by then and the economy will need I lie spending boost a tax cut would bring. While some legislators question the need for a cut that big, the administration has worried publicly that Congress will cut taxes too much.</br></br>If the predictions in the budget President Carter sent to Congress last week are correct, there will be little
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Mortgage Rates Reverse Course and Fall
Home-mortgage rates fell this week, returning to levels seen two weeks ago, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming rates, released on Thursday.</br></br>The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.07% for the week ended April 15, down from 5.21% last week. A year ago, the mortgage averaged 4.82%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.40%, down from 4.52% last week and 4.48% a year ago.</br></br>The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 4.08%, down from 4.25% last week and 4.88% a year ago. And the one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.13%, down from 4.14% last week and 4.91% a year ago.</br></br>"After rising for four consecutive weeks, mortgage rates eased back to where they were two weeks ago and still remain historically low," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, in a news release.</br></br>But rates will rise in the future, some say.
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The Outlook: Capital Spending May Spur Recovery
NEW YORK -- While new commercial and factory construction is likely to remain weak, companies will continue to spend heavily on machinery and equipment. Spending increased sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, helping to account for the strong rise in gross domestic product.</br></br>Smith Barney, Harris Upham & Co. estimates business fixed investment in inflation-adjusted terms will soar 9.3% this year, a gain that the firm thinks will help spur the economy to a moderate rise.</br></br>The consensus forecast is that inflation-adjusted GDP, the nation's output of goods and services, will grow 3.3% this year. Aside from capital outlays, the factors expected to keep the economy edging upward are residential construction, inventory increases and, to a modest extent, state and local government spending.</br></br>The proposed temporary investment tax credit for large companies and the permanent one for smaller companies are under attack in Congress as tax loopholes that even industry doesn't want. Jerry Jasinowski, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, says the credits would merely move spending forward. Spending, in any case, is rising without them.</br></br>In the latest Dun & Bradstreet survey of 5,000 manufacturing firms, 44% of all companies foresee increases in outlays during 1993. Another 17% expect to have lower expenditures, while the remaining 39% see outlays remaining constant at 1992 levels.
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REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial) The Mitchell Recession? -- III: Poison and Antidote
If you're starting to sniff recession in the air, remember that this editorial is the third in a series.</br></br>It seems time, since over the past two weeks the markets have been giving off the symptoms of a stall. The stock market sidestepped into the new year and promptly fell about 250 points as of Friday's close. Markets reacted coldly last Tuesday to a 40-year bond offering by the government's S&L bailout agency. Gold began the year at about $400 and in three weeks is up to $420. Simultaneously, the White House has turned a bit cranky over the Fed's handling of monetary policy.</br></br>Most economists still expect merely a slowdown in growth, but the sense that something's wrong is palpable. What we've witnessed is entirely consistent with what we predicted in our two "Mitchell Recession" editorials in November. The market, and through it the general economy, is being whipsawed by Congress's handling of the capital-gains issue. We first noted back on November 7 that Senator Mitchell was congratulating himself for killing the Bush capital-gains proposal, and wondered whether he'd take credit later if the economy stalled. On November 30, with the market at 2688 we wrote:</br></br>"The stock market, after rising while a capital-gains cut gained political momentum, collapsed 190 points when Mr. Mitchell stopped it, and now remains at about the August 1 level. Everyone is therefore looking for the Fed to ease monetary policy."</br></br>The market rallied a bit in December; tax advisers suggested that normal year-end profit-taking be pushed into 1990, because their consensus among people who mattered -- George Bush, Lloyd Bentsen, Dan Rostenkowski was that a capital-gains cut in 1990 was baked in the cake.
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Stocks Fall on Fed Outlook
Author: Jonathan Cheng</br></br>Stocks fell broadly after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called the U.S. economic outlook "unusually uncertain" but signaled the central bank wouldn't act in the near term to bolster the flagging recovery.</br></br>Left with a picture of a sluggish economy that policy makers are either unable or unwilling to boost, investors unloaded shares as Mr. Bernanke reaffirmed earlier promises to "take further policy actions as needed."</br></br>"This is what the Fed has been saying for a while now," said John Stoltzfus, senior market strategist with Ticonderoga Securities. "This is just replaying the tape."</br></br>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 164 points at one stage before closing down 109.43 points, or 1.1%, at 10120.53. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%.
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Ford Uses Aggressive Marketing Approach in Thailand --- Focus on Financing Strategies Is Key Reason for Increased Market Share
After a 20-year absence, Ford Motor Co. is back in Thailand. Considering the country's economy, this isn't the perfect time to plunge back in. But, armed with some aggressive -- and risky-financing strategies, Ford is gaining strength in a difficult market.</br></br>The world's No. 2 auto maker, which left Thailand in the '70s to focus on the U.S. market, returned about two years ago -- before the Asian economic crisis hit -- and now is seeking to become a market leader committed to offering auto loans to Thais when rivals can't or won't. Credit for auto loans is tight and sales have plummeted 75% since a currency devaluation walloped the country's economy last year.</br></br>Ford is raising the stakes for itself by offering U.S.-style come-ons, including 0% interest. It's a big gamble, considering that the government has closed dozens of finance companies because of debt problems. Industry experts warn that Ford risks high default and repossession rates and a price war as wounded competitors match low interest rates.</br></br>But "price and financing are the main reasons people are buying right now," not brands or resale value, says Siriluk Aroondechachai, who took over her father's Ford dealership two years ago.</br></br>Ms. Siriluk, through Ford's finance subsidiary, Primus Leasing Co., can offer a menu of financing options, including once-yearly payments for Thai farmers that coincide with sugar-cane harvests in northeastern Thailand, where she runs her dealership. During March, Ms. Siriluk, a 25-year-old with a degree in economics from Baylor University in Texas, sold 60 trucks in Thailand-enough to make some U.S. dealers envious.
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The Outlook: Minority View -- Inflation Won't Worsen
NEW YORK -- A forecaster doesn't have to be especially fearless right now to predict, as most are doing, that inflation will worsen considerably over the next year or so. Business-cycle history suggests it. Indicators that normally presage broad price trends suggest it. The truly fearless forecaster now is the one who maintains that inflation won't worsen markedly in coming months. There are quite a number of them around, and their thinking, however wishful it may ultimately prove to be, seems worth reciting.</br></br>It may be useful, first, to underline the considerable derring-do that a forecast of low inflation entails. It runs counter to the fact that inflation has worsened in year number three of nearly every long-running economic expansion of the past 30 years. And the reacceleration has often been pronounced. The sharpest speedup was in year three of the 1970-73 upturn, when the overall inflation rate jumped to 7.1% from 4.3% in year two. The current expansion, it should be noted, is in the middle of its second year.</br></br>A footnote: The postwar record shows that inflation has normally been milder in the second expansion year than in the first. This tendency reflects such usual early-recovery trends as above-average productivity gains, which serve to hold down labor costs, and an absence of costly bottlenecks.</br></br>Apart from the business cycle, a wide assortment of inflation barometers point to increasing trouble on the price front. Reasonably typical is an indicator compiled by Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research. Reflecting such facets of the business scene as credit growth, commodity price movements and employment trends, it has surged some 17% since the expansion's start. That's the sharpest recovery rise in three decades and suggests to the Columbia analysts that prices generally will be sharply rising by late this year or early next. They foresee annual inflation rates of 8% or 9%. That would be roughly double recent rates.</br></br>Most forecasters, to be sure, are somewhat less pessimistic about the price outlook. But not by a great deal. A recent survey of several dozen forecasters by Eggert Enterprises Inc. of Sedona, Ariz., shows that on average they anticipate steadily accelerating inflation through this year and next, with the annual rate approaching 7%. That would be up from an estimated rise of 4.9% for the current quarter.
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Economy, Though Sluggish, Recovers From Weak Second Period, Survey Says
NEW YORK -- The economy is recovering from an anemic second quarter, but its performance remains sluggish.</br></br>Spurred by a surge in consumer spending, economic growth picked up to a 2.3% annual rate this quarter, according to the results of a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal. In the previous three months, the economy barely stayed afloat, with the gross national product expanding at a meager 0.6% pace, after adjusting for inflation.</br></br>The Commerce Department's initial estimate of third-quarter economic growth isn't scheduled for release until Oct. 21. Estimates of the 15 private economists polled by the Journal are similar to the government's "flash" projections, which were discontinued this year.</br></br>Although the economy's growth was slower than most economists had expected only a few months ago, analysts generally say the Federal Reserve System isn't likely to push short-term interest rates down further just yet. Several Fed officials recently have indicated that the central bank should hold policy stable for awhile to assess the effects of its previous credit-easing moves. These officials also have underscored the Fed's determination to keep inflation under control.</br></br>Some investors lately have become jittery about a recent spurt in commodity prices, especially gold, which they fear could be a harbinger of higher inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey showed that inflation increased only slightly during the third quarter. A GNP-based inflation measure, known as the deflator, rose at an annual rate of 2.7% this quarter from 1.8% the previous period, according to the poll.
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Latin Summit Is Focusing on Debt; U.S. Uninvited at Acapulco Meeting of 8 Presidents
The presidents of eight Latin American countries today opened a two-day summit meeting with demands for fairer treatment of their debt problems by foreign creditors and a greater role in decision-making on international political and security matters.</br></br>The presidents of Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Panama gathered in this Pacific Coast resort for what several of them noted was the first major Latin American summit to be convened without the involvement of the United States.</br></br>After an opening speech by Mexican President Miguel de la Madrid, the conference host, each head of state addressed the gathering publicly before heading into close-door sessions.</br></br>"For the first time in our history, we are meeting on our own initiative to define a political plan that will effectively serve the goal of unity that calls us together," said Argentine President Raul Alfonsin.</br></br>Peruvian President Alan Garcia, who has suspended interest payments on his country's foreign debt and nationalized its banking system, called on Latin America to "abolish the monetary dictatorship of the dollar that has been imposed on us for more than 40 years."
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OTC Focus: Nasdaq Party Still Has Room for Latecomers
NEW YORK -- Investors who arrived late at the small-stock party take heart: You can still get in on the merrymaking, if history serves as a guide.</br></br>Even latecomers fared well in three out of the four small-stock rallies since the Great Depression that most closely resemble the current surge in small stocks.</br></br>Like the current rally, those four began as the economy was crawling out of recessions. They gained steam as the economy strengthened. Only one of the four died. But the loser was the most recent rally, which followed the early 1980s recession.</br></br>Small stocks soared a remarkable 46% last year, as measured by the Russell 2000 index. Now many investors wonder whether they can still profit handsomely if they missed the powerful first stage of a small-stock rally.</br></br>It is a question "that I was asked at least 15 times last week," says Jim Collins, small-stock money manager and publisher of OTC Insight of Moraga, Calif. He is advising clients to invest after the powerful Christmas rally cools a bit.
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Civil Strife Returns To San Salvador; Bombings and Protests Recall Early '80s
Civil strife burst back into the capital city over the past week in a rapid succession of rebel sabotage actions, anti-American protests and mysterious attacks on leftist groups.</br></br>To many residents herethe violence in the last seven days stirred frightening memories of the early 1980s when street fighting and death-squad murders brought this small nation to the brink of revolution.</br></br>Although angry frustration with the three-year-old, U.S.-backed Christian Democratic government of President Jose Napoleon Duarte is widespread, he faces no danger of an urban revolt. After seven years of war, many Salvadorans feel the political alternatives to Duarte on the left and right are just as discredited, residents and political analysts said.</br></br>The events began May 28 when a noontime bomb blew off part of the roof of the offices of a left-wing committee of relatives of disappeared persons. Two employes at the committee, known as Comadres, were slightly injured.</br></br>The same day, two dozen refugees from another leftist group were occupying the city cathedral, demanding government permission to return to live in their home villages.
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Ahead of the Tape
[Today's Market Forecast]</br></br>Cash Machines</br></br>After so many laps around the track, the U.S. consumer's legs have got to be feeling mighty heavy by now. Thank goodness companies are in such spry shape.</br></br>Thanks to the economic recovery that took hold last year, together with low interest rates and stringent cost controls, companies have more than repaired the heavy damage that hit their balance sheets at the start of the decade. Profit margins have shown a healthy climb. As a percentage of gross domestic product, profits have rarely been so high.</br></br>Corporate wallets have fattened markedly as a result, with yesterday's second-quarter flow of funds report from the Federal Reserve suggesting companies have the best cash position in 40 years.
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McDonough Named to Head New York Federal Reserve Bank
William J. McDonough, an executive at the First National Bank,of Chicago for most of his career and executive vice president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank since early last year, yesterday was named president of the New York bank, the most important of the Federal Reserve‰Ûªs 12 regional institutions.</br></br>McDonough, 59, was chosen by the New York Fed‰Ûªs board of directors with the approval of the Federal Reserve Board here. He will succeed E. Gerald Corrigan, who announced in January that he would resign effective Aug. 20.</br></br>EHen V. Futter, president of Barnard College and chairman of the New York Fed board of directors, said in a prepared statement that McDonough was chosen from among 50 candidates because of his "long and distinguished career in both the public and private sectors, together with his broad-based knowledge of the workings of financial institutions and financial markets, both nationally and internationally.‰Ûª‰Ûª</br></br>In a statement of his own, McDonough said the Fed‰Ûªs monetary policy should be focused "on achieving sustained economic growth. That requires prices stability, meaning low levels of inflation. How low? Low enough so that the fear of inflation does not distort in-</br></br>Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and the other senior central bank officials who serve on the Federal Open Market Committee, the top monetary policy-making group, generally hold the same view about the goals for monetary policy.
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U.S. Subsidy for Education Lenders Stirs Debate
NEW YORK -- Investors stung by the 16% decline in SLM Holding Corp.'s stock since April 9 may get a chance to recoup their losses soon, but they'll need the federal government's cooperation -- and that is far from certain.</br></br>Shares of SLM Holding, also known as Sallie Mae, began sliding over a government plan to price interest rates on federally guaranteed student loans off 10-year Treasury notes instead of 90-day Treasury bills, in effect cutting rates to one of their lowest points in 17 years.</br></br>That was good news for students, but sacrilege to Sallie Mae and other lenders. Observers estimated that the changes would cost the industry at least $260 million a year, and Sallie Mae's stock has taken a hit on the prospect, falling to below $38 this last week from a 52-week high of $49.25 in April.</br></br>Sallie Mae and other student lenders breathed a sigh of relief earlier this month when the government approved a temporary measure that prevents the lower rate from cutting too deeply into their profit margins. The three-month plan continues to price student loans off the 90-day T-bill but lowers the interest rate formula and provides a subsidy for lenders.</br></br>But a debate is now brewing over whether the temporary fix should be extended for five years. According to the Department of Education, this long-term compromise proposal would cost taxpayers $2.4 billion.
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The Wall Street Journal / NBC News Poll --- A Special Weekly Report From The Wall Street Journal's Capital Bureau
FUND-RAISING FLAPS roil the administration even as Clinton backs overhaul.</br></br>Clinton himself is slated to speak at fund-raisers in Washington, New York and Los Angeles for the Democratic Senate campaign committee. Despite new DNC restrictions, the autonomous Senate group will welcome donations from foreign-owned subsidiaries and noncitizen residents. In his State of the Union speech Tuesday, Clinton is expected to call for passing a campaign-reform bill by summer.</br></br>About 68% of Americans in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll say politics is more influenced by special-interest money than 20 years ago. A plurality faults both parties. A GOP governors' dinner on Monday is expected to raise $3 million. Labor-secretary nominee Alexis Herman takes heat for Clinton coffee klatches with donors, but most were arranged by the political staff headed by Douglas Sosnik.</br></br>The saying around the White House, according to cybersatirist Bob Hirschfeld: "That and a grand will get you a cup of coffee."</br></br>FIX SOCIAL SECURITY but go slow on putting funds in stocks, many say.
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U.S. Regulators Close to Providing Relief to 'Volcker Rule' Provision; Banks Wouldn't Have to Divest Certain Securities Under a New Rule
WASHINGTON--Regulators are close to issuing a rule designed to provide relief to banks that want to own certain types of debt investments without running afoul of the so-called Volcker rule, according to people briefed on the matter.</br></br>Regulatory agencies are planning to issue an interim final rule this week that would allow banks to hold some collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, as long as they meet certain criteria, such as containing specific types of loans, these people said.</br></br>Regulators haven't made a final decision, but people familiar with the matter said the agencies want to allow most small banks to avoid having to divest the securities, though the impact could vary by institution. Regulators have promised a decision on the Volcker rule provision by Wednesday.</br></br>The change under consideration comes in response to pressure from Capitol Hill and a lawsuit from the banking industry, which last month challenged the Volcker rule's restriction on banks' holding of CDOs made up of trust-preferred securities. The CDOs at issue often are made up of debt issued by banks that was then bundled together and sold to investors, including other banks.</br></br>The Dec. 10 release of the Volcker rule, which bans banks from making certain investments, took some small firms by surprise because it applied the ban to certain CDO holdings. The banks sued on Dec. 24, and several members of Congress wrote letters asking regulators to reconsider.
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Canadian Dollar Advances on Fed Statement, Higher Oil Prices;
TORONTO--The Canadian dollar is ending higher Wednesday, reflecting both a general retreat in the U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the impact of low inflation on the economy, and gains made in prices for energy commodities.</br></br>The Fed's remarks were seen by some market participants as indicating the Fed might not proceed as quickly as previously expected in reducing its stimulative bond-buying programs.</br></br>The U.S. dollar is at C$1.0272 late Wednesday, from C$1.0304 late Tuesday, according to data provider CQG.</br></br>The U.S. currency dipped to a low of C$1.0246 after the statement before retracing some of its losses.</br></br>The Fed's statement said it expects weak inflation to eventually rise back toward targets, but also says it "recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2% objective could pose risks to economic performance."
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Bond Market Braces for Rally's End --- Investors Stand in Precarious Position as Looming Cutback in Fed Purchases May Deal Blow to Funds
Smart analysts have been warning for years that the bottom could fall out of the surging bond market.</br></br>They were wrong. Bond yields went to unprecedented lows, pushing bond prices to unprecedented highs, and they just kept going. The weak economy, little inflation and exceptional Federal Reserve policies took bonds to unnatural levels.</br></br>But nothing lasts forever. At some point, the economy will become more normal and yields will rise to more natural levels. Existing bonds with their lower yields will fall in value. Bond-fund investors will lose money.</br></br>Many bond-fund managers think the process has finally begun. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen to 2.7% from about 1.6% in early May. Treasury-bond funds have fallen in value. Money managers have begun selling funds holding Treasurys and other high-grade bonds.</br></br>The spark for this is the Fed's plan to start trimming its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying stimulus. Analysts expect that to begin between December and June.
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Dollar Shoots Higher after Official Comments on Falling German Rates
NEW YORK -- The dollar shot higher after Bundesbank President Helmut Schlesinger said that long-term interest rates in Germany could drop more than a percentage point from current levels.</br></br>The U.S. currency also was aided by exceptionally thin market conditions, which provided little resistance to the dollar's rise. And, as the dollar broke above key levels on the technical charts, additional buying kicked in, observers said.</br></br>The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, continued to strengthen, despite a further slip in the country's interest rates. Although the currency's long-term fundamental outlook remains questionable, most traders and analysts said the currency's mainstay is strong year-end demand for Canadian fixed-income instruments.</br></br>Late in New York, the dollar was quoted at 1.5895 marks, up from 1.5690 marks late Monday and at 123.75 yen, up from 123.10 yen. Sterling was trading at $1.5370, well below $1.5580 Monday.</br></br>"Schlesinger really set the tone" for the dollar's rally, said Michael Wissell, director for corporate foreign exchange at Toronto Dominion Bank. "And we really haven't looked back," he added.
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For Tiffany & Co., The Market Crash Brought Only Profit --- Jewelry Firm Says Earnings Tripled in Third Quarter Despite Tumbling Stocks
NEW YORK -- Tiffany & Co. breezed through the stock market crash, reporting that fiscal third-quarter earnings tripled.</br></br>Status continued to be a retailer's best friend, although analysts cautioned that what's true for Tiffany, the upper-crust jeweler and luxury-item concern, isn't necessarily true for more mundane firms.</br></br>Earnings for the quarter ended Oct. 31 jumped to $3.7 million, or 36 cents a share, from $1.2 million, or 17 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose 26% to $54 million from $42.8 million.</br></br>Since the debacle of Black Monday, Oct. 19, "Tiffany's sales have continued at the same strong pace of growth that we generated throughout the third quarter," said Chairman William R. Chaney.</br></br>"While it wouldn't be prudent to forecast in the current environment," Mr. Chaney said, Tiffany remains optimistic and continues to pursue plans to expand.
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Lugar Pushes Agriculture Dept. Cuts; Senator Sees Madigan Averse to Closing State Offices in Election Year
Agriculture Department officials at the state level have recommended closing hundreds of nonessential field offices, but Agriculture Secretary Edward R. Madigan appears reluctant to take action in an election year, Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) said yesterday.</br></br>Madigan denied he was "trying to duck it," but insisted that a thorough review of USDA field operations was necessary in order to determine where to make cuts. "I'm sure we can close a lot of offices," Madigan said.</br></br>Lugar, however, questioned whether the decision by Madigan and Office of Management and Budget Director Richard G. Darman to conduct a comprehensive "SWAT team" study of USDA field operations was simply a mechanism to shunt structural reform into bureaucratic limbo.</br></br>"We're on hold while these rather large studies proceed," Lugar told a news conference. "We can wait six months down the trail, but it seems apparent that certain changes can be made now."</br></br>In another critical look at USDA yesterday, the House Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs subcommittee on housing and community development sharply questioned department officials about developers' improperly exploiting a USDA-administered loan program that builds and administers rental housing for the rural poor.
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Which Way Will the Fed Jump?: Enigmatic Economy Watched for Clues
'J*HE FEDERAL Reserve Sys-j tem has been loosening its1 credit curbs and it will relax; them further unless a spring upturn in business activity, gets underway during the' davs ahead.</br></br>The central bank is moving carefully. It is trying to keep excessively tight money from cramping business activity but it doesn‰Ûªt want to let credit be.come too easy if there is to be a vigorous business upturn.</br></br>The Federal Reserve is achieving its objective by judicious use of open markot operations. It will have to seriously consider a cut in the 4 per cent discount rate and even a reduction in bank reserve requirements if business activity does not strengthen soon.</br></br>The problem for the central bank is to make certain that sufficient money is available to keep the economy growing at a healthy pace. There is some fear that economic activity will slip on to a plateau even if a recession does not develop.</br></br>TPHE DISCOUNT rate is out of line with other shortterm rates but the Federal Reserve is reluctant to order a cut unless it can be reasonably certain that the reduction will stick. It doesn‰Ûªt want to reduce the discount rate and then have to increase it again because it has found that rising business activity has sparked a fresh, rise in other shortterm rates.
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D.C. Joblessness Rises in February
åÇ'‰ÐÊ The unemployment rate in Washington rose in February after declining -in each of the previous four months, the D.C. Department of Labor reported yesterday.</br></br>(C According to the department, 303,-råÇ00 persons had jobs in February out *if a labor force of 328,900. In January,</br></br>The unemployment rate thus rose vjto 7.6 percent from 7.5 percent in Jan-Juary, The department noted that the ‰Û¢^February figure is well below the 9.4 ^percent unemployment rate for the (.District for February 1978.</br></br>an unemployment rate of 5 percent for the entire metropolitan area. The comparable figure for February 1978 was 5.3 percent, the Labor Department said.</br></br>The latest figures showed an increase in the labor force of 34,300 over the past year, most of it in the suburbs.
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Fed Adopts Junk-Bond Restrictions: Fed Adopts Restrictions On Use of Junk Bonds
The Federal Reserve Board voted 3 to 2 yesterday to adopt a revised version of a controversial measure that restricts the use of junk bonds in certain corporate takeovers.</br></br>The proposal, which had the support of Fed Chairman Paul A. Volcker, was approved despite strong opposition from the Reagan administration. The administration has opposed additional regulation of takeovers, arguing that takeover</br></br>Most Wall Street merger experts predicted yesterday that the revised proposal will have little impact on the frenetic pace of merger activity. They said it will apply to only a small percentage of deals, adding that investment bankers and lawyers will easily find ways to comply with the new restrictions without reaily changing their practices.</br></br>Merger experts said that among the many ways bidders could get around the new restrictions are by selling preferred stock rather than debt to finance takeover‰Û÷bids, or by</br></br>The new Fed restrictions on borrowing come amid growing concern over the excessive use of debt to finance takeovers.
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Visa Net Climbs 33% As Spending Picks Up
Visa Inc.'s fiscal second-quarter profit grew by a third, topping analysts' expectations, as consumers ratcheted up spending and the company processed more payments.</br></br>The results offer fresh evidence on the rising optimism of consumers as the economy stabilizes. Higher spending by borrowers also bolsters hopes of a turnaround in the broad credit-card industry and shifts the spotlight from consumer defaults and delinquencies.</br></br>"Our performance was fueled by higher-than-expected payments-volume growth," said Chairman and Chief Executive Joseph Saunders. He added Visa was "increasingly optimistic that economic growth will gradually improve."</br></br>For the quarter ended March 31, Visa reported a profit of $713 million, or 96 cents a class A common share, compared with a profit of $536 million, or 71 cents per class A common share, a year earlier. Revenue for the fiscal second-quarter jumped 19% to about $2 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a profit of 91 cents on revenue of $1.93 billion.</br></br>For the second-quarter, payments volume, representing spending on Visa-branded cards, rose 13% from a year ago to $745 billion. The total number of transactions processed in the second-quarter rose 14% over a year ago to 10.6 billion.
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To Gain Control, Democrats Need a Message
Between now and the Nov. 6 election, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) will be trying to help Democrats gain seats in the Republican-controlled Senate and House of Delegates.</br></br>Kaine has recruited strong Democratic challengers in many competitive districts and raised more than $2 million. He has been hitting the campaign trail as if his name were on the ballot. Strategists from both parties say Democrats are well positioned to make substantial gains.</br></br>But it's hard to unseat an incumbent, even in a year in which Republicans might be dragged down by voter fatigue with national party policies in Washington. It's not clear whether Kaine and Democratic leaders have a compelling message that will persuade voters it's time to replace Republicans in the General Assembly.</br></br>Kaine has been betting that voters will reward him -- and Democratic candidates -- for the accolades Virginia has received under his leadership and that of his predecessor, Mark R. Warner (D).</br></br>Kaine frequently notes that Forbes magazine has named Virginia the "Best State for Business" for two years. Education Week has named Virginia one of the best states in which to raise a child. Virginia has several top-ranked public schools and one of the nation's lowest unemployment rates, Kaine notes.
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Banks Don't Need to Be Forced to Lend
Tomorrow, the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing to "discuss priorities" for the Obama administration's use of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds. Those priorities could include lending and other directives to financial institutions receiving TARP investments. These directives could be disastrous for taxpayers and the economy if they force banks to engage in unwise lending, or keep weak, troubled banks from being absorbed by stronger banks.</br></br>TARP has two major shortcomings. The first is a lack of political support. Congress did not explicitly authorize capital investments in financial institutions when it created the $700 billion program three months ago. The Treasury originally was supposed to buy troubled assets of banks and other financial institutions. It quickly realized that this was unworkable due to challenges in determining asset prices. It then decided to invest TARP funds in the institutions, to increase their capital. But the lack of congressional consent for these investments has understandably stoked controversy about their purpose.</br></br>Second, there is widespread confusion about the role capital plays in bank balance sheets, which has exacerbated this controversy. That confusion is evident in comments such as "banks should be forced to lend the TARP monies the government has given them."</br></br>Treasury invests TARP funds by purchasing preferred stock in a bank, which adds to the bank's capital. Bank capital, which also includes common stock and retained earnings, serves as a cushion to absorb losses from loans and other bank activities; it is not loaned out directly. Most bank lending is funded by customer deposits and borrowings from third parties (such as the Federal Home Loan Banks).</br></br>Potentially, a bank could use its increased capital from TARP to absorb losses from loans and investments already on its books, to acquire banks too weak to remain independent, or to increase its lending. The higher capital boosts a bank's lending capacity because it enables the bank to safely increase its deposits -- and thus its loans -- without increasing its risk of insolvency.
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DIGEST: DOLLAR VS. JAPANESE YEN (N.Y.)
Consumer confidence fell slightly in February from January, when it was the lowest since just after the October 1987 stock market crash. The consumer confidence index, compiled by the Conference Board, fell to</br></br>Business economists believe the U.S. economy will avoid a recession for the next three years and break the expansion record set in the 1960s, according to a new survey,</br></br>But the economists indicated that the economy is in a danger zone and is likely to grow only a sluggish 1.7 percent this year before accelerating to 2.5 percent next year.</br></br>K mart, which has been battling an earnings slump, announced a five-year, $2.3 billion program that calls for opening about 250 new stores and enlarging, relocating and refurbishing hundreds of existing outlets.</br></br>It also calls for closing 30 stores. K mart said it will take a charge of about $640 million against 1989 earnings to cover the costs.
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November Mutual Fund Demand Stayed Strong; '85 Sales Seen Up Over 100%
NEW YORK -- Mutual fund sales continued their strong pace in November, and industry officials forecast that total sales for 1985 will more than double last year's sales.</br></br>The Investment Company Institute said sales in 1985 are expected to reach a record $110.5 billion, compared with the previous record of $45.9 billion in 1984.</br></br>The Washington-based trade association said sales in November totaled $11.78 billion, almost three times the year-earlier $4.07 billion. However, the figure was 6% below October's $12.5 billion in sales, reflecting fewer business days in the month.</br></br>Mutual fund sales have been bolstered this year by the rising stock market as well as keen investor interest in high-yielding funds. The institute estimates that $60 billion of 1985's sales came from government income, municipal bond and Government National Mortgage Association passthrough funds. Fixed-income fund yields made them more attractive than money-market deposit accounts to many investors.</br></br>Redemptions in November were $2.76 billion, compared with $2.7 billion a month earlier and $1.83 billion in November 1984. Net sales, or sales less redemptions, fell to $9.03 billion last month from $9.8 billion in October. However, November's net sales more than quadrupled November 1984's sales of $2.24 billion.
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What's Ahead -- People & Events to Watch in the Coming Week
Monday, June 4</br></br>Figures on April factory orders are released.</br></br>Tuesday, June 5</br></br>The Institute of Supply Management issues its service-sector index for May.</br></br>---
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Insight and Outlook Weapons Against Inflation
IT IS NO longer a question whether the Administration is going to seek new weapons against inflation. The only inter e s t i n g question now is what weapons it will choose.</br></br>In thinking about the choice, it is important to remem her that the inflation ary condition is not universal, either in the economy or the country. Some sectors of the economy, notably residential construction, are doing quite poorly. In the country at large, unemployment, at just under 4 percent, is too high. The more so since the jobless rate among Negroes and persons over 45 is much higher.</br></br>Because inflationary pressure is not generalized, but confined to pockets or bottlenecks, it follows that measures to restrict demand should be highly selective. The general rule is that every step to restrict demand should find expression in a commensurate cut in inflationary pressure.</br></br>EVERY DOLLAR‰ÛªS worth of medicine, in other words, should buy a dollars‰Ûª worth ,of cure. Otherwise, the restrictions will be ineffective: they will be applied, sometimes in a punitive, manner, to regions of the country and sectors of the economy that are generating inflationary pressures only indirectly, if at all.</br></br>Asit happens, the geographical locus of inflationary pressure is not hard to identify. In general, the tightest area of labor shortage in the country lies in the heavy Industrial belt running along the Great Lakes through Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago and Milwaukee. In these cities, unemployment is just above the 2 per cent mark; credit is tight; and in some industries orders are exceeding current demand.
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Retailers Report Uneven Sales For Last Month --- Summer Clothes Sold Well, But Most Other Items Sparked Little Buying
The nation's largest retailers reported uneven sales in July as shoppers snapped up summer apparel bargains but remained tightfisted when it came to spending on almost everything else.</br></br>Clearance sales of summer clothes produced major gains for big department stores and chains, but specialty stores and off-price retailers were down sharply. And sales of furniture and other hard goods sagged as growth in consumer spending on such goods remained soft despite recent lower interest rates and upticks in newhome sales.</br></br>Sales at stores open at least a year climbed 3.6% in July, according to Goldman, Sachs & Co.'s national retail-sales index, not quite matching the 4.4% growth measured in July last year. Another such index, that of Salomon Brothers Inc., registered 4% growth for the month.</br></br>Analysts were left guessing when a rebound in consumer spending would arrive. "Things aren't getting worse, but they're not getting better, either," said Robert Buchanan, a retail analyst at NatWest Securities Inc. "The slowdown is over, but it's unclear when things will turn up."</br></br>The holding pattern took a heavy toll on computer and consumer-electronics retailers, especially Best Buy Co. The Minneapolis company reported a 1% decline in same-store sales for July, compared with a 16% increase in such sales last year. Richard L. Schulze, chairman and chief executive, blamed the decline partly on chilled demand for personal computers, as consumers wait for Microsoft Corp.'s Windows 95 to be released this month before upgrading hardware.
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Going Global: Can Asia Cure U.S. Trade Gap?; Big Imbalance May Persist Even If China, Others Free Currencies
Paris -- FRUSTRATED THAT THE dollar's three-year decline has failed to make a dent in the record U.S. trade deficit, U.S. and European policy makers are turning up the heat on Asian countries, particularly China, to share more of the burden in righting the world's massive economic imbalances.</br></br>They should be careful what they wish for, however. If China does agree to unhitch the yuan from the dollar -- or at least give it some wiggle room -- it might not have much impact, leaving the U.S. with its huge trade deficit and Europe with a too-strong currency, uncompetitive industries and poor economic growth, just as it exists now.</br></br>On the other hand, a move to really disconnect the yuan and other Asian currencies' ties to the dollar could send U.S. interest rates higher and the American economy lower.</br></br>Last week, European Central Bank chief economist Otmar Issing opened the West's verbal assault on the East, arguing that the euro's rise and dollar's fall had gone far enough and that it was Asia's turn to carry the can. "In terms of foreign-exchange developments, we see at the European level the adjustment is completed and has even gone too far," Mr. Issing said in a speech. "The key to this problem . . . lies in Asia and above all in China's hands, but China is not addressing this because of its internal problems."</br></br>Two days later, departing U.S. Commerce Secretary Donald Evans, New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and Paul Jenkins, senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, joined the pick-on-Asia chorus. Mr. Trichet noted the "clear consensus amongst the international community . . . on the fact that there is a need for emerging Asia to go progressively in the direction of perhaps progressive and orderly appreciation of the sub- currencies." Translation: Asian nations with currencies pegged to the dollar should stop keeping them artificially low.
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$30 Billion Question
For Democrats, $30 billion seems to be the magic number.</br></br>It's the amount Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both say is needed to stimulate the economy out of its doldrums. (Coincidently, it was the financial backing that the Federal Reserve originally offered for the Bear Stearns deal, before trimming it by $1 billion.) Sen. Obama laid out his economic plan today, and it helped sharpen policy differences between the two Democratic rivals, as well as Republican candidate John McCain. The stimulus prescription, it seems, is the political divider. Of course, both parties have already voted through a much larger $152 billion stimulus plan. That measure was designed to get people spending and businesses investing, however. The monies the two Democrats suggest adding to the pot would go toward battling the fallout from the housing crunch. Sen. Clinton's $30 billion would mostly go to help states and cities buy foreclosed properties. Mr. Obama has the same idea, but he would dedicate $10 billion of his stimulus to helping states head off cuts in services as tax revenues decline and to expanding unemployment insurance.</br></br>On the Republican side, Sen. McCain has sworn off using government money for bailouts, although he backed the Bear Stearns deal as a fix to "systemic financial problems." He also doesn't approve lowering the down-payment requirements for Federal Housing Authority-backed loans as a way to help low-income homeowners. On the contrary, he wants to raise them. Sens. Obama and Clinton can agree on very little these days, but they have united in dismissing Sen. McCain's policy as fiddling while Rome burns. Sen. Clinton revived her "3a.m. phone call" image that she had used in an attack ad on Sen. Obama, and applied it to Sen. McCain: "The phone is ringing, and he would just let it ring and ring." In his speech, Mr. Obama said Sen. McCain's plan "amounts to little more than watching this crisis happen." Sen. McCain struck back in a statement before Sen. Obama's speech had even ended. "There is a tendency for liberals to seek big government programs that sock it to American taxpayers while failing to solve the very real problems we face," he said. Sen. McCain agrees with his opponents in some areas. Like them, he thinks mortgage companies should do more to help cash-strapped but creditworthy borrowers with their loans.</br></br>---</br></br>Oil Pipeline Struck in Iraq
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Rails Strong, Motors Soft In Mixed Day
roads had it all their Own way today on the upside in the stock market. Support from the rest of the, list was meager.</br></br>Before the day was finished, some soft spots developed, particularly in the motors, and the _______________________________</br></br>Nevertheless, the day marked the end of a two-day decline that topped off a post-election drive to a new 1952-53 high.</br></br>At, the close the main support of the market was the rail section with some help from the aircrafts and scattered areas.</br></br>Near-term irregularity during a period of consolidation would not surprise many Wall Street. brokers, especially in . the absence of hew developments with an adverse market color.
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Budget deficit grew in the latest month to $40.26 billion
WASHINGTON -- The federal government opened its new fiscal year with a much bigger deficit than a year earlier, when it was operating on a reduced, temporary budget.</br></br>The total budget deficit widened last month to $40.26 billion from $22.58 billion a year earlier, when the government faced shutdowns and budgetary stalemates. The deficit is the amount by which expenditures exceed receipts.</br></br>In its monthly statement, the Treasury said receipts totaled $99.95 billion in October, compared with $95.67 billion a year earlier and $157.67 billion in September. Outlays totaled $140.21 billion last month, compared with $118.25 billion a year earlier and $122.24 billion in September. The October budget gap compared with a revised surplus of $35.43 billion in September.</br></br>Separately, the Labor Department said the U.S. import price index, excluding fuels, fell 0.3% in October, marking the fifth monthly decrease for the index in the past six months. Import prices for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials, automotive vehicles, consumer goods and capital goods also posted modest declines in October. Only the index for foods, feed and beverages edged higher in the month, rising 0.1%.</br></br>Overall, import prices rose 0.4% in October, bolstered by a 6.1% jump in petroleum prices after a 7.4% gain in September. Over the last 12 months, prices for imported petroleum have risen 37.6%.
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Reagan Was A Sure Loser Too; Conventional wisdom about Republican presidential prospects sounds mighty familiar.
Not since Herbert Hoover has a party out of power had such an opportunity to run against everything that troubles the American family--prices, interest rates, unemployment, taxes, or the fear for the future of their old age or the future of their children--than is now presented to the Republican Party.</br></br>The Republicans, however, haven't figured this out. This is their basic problem. They have no strategy for defeating an Obama administration that is highly vulnerable on both domestic and foreign policy.</br></br>That's the conventional wisdom in a nutshell, isn't it?</br></br>It will come as no surprise that these words appeared in a Feb. 29 column in the New York Times. They are reproduced here exactly as written, save for one small adjustment.</br></br>The president whose failings they describe is Jimmy Carter, not Barack Obama. The lines were written in 1980, not 2012. The author was the then-dean of conventional wisdom, James "Scotty" Reston. The headline was "Jimmy Carter's Luck," a reference to Reagan's victory in the New Hampshire primary three days earlier.
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Bond Yields Up Sharply; Dow Loses 36.58 Points
The U.S. Treasury yesterday sold $11 billion worth of 30-year bonds for an average yield of 6.43 percent, more than two-tenths of a percentage point higher than they were late last month before the Federal Reserve raised short-term term rates in a precautionary move against inflation.</br></br>The continued rise in long-term rates helped undermine stock prices yesterday as the Dow Jones average of 30 industrial stocks fell 36.58 points to close at 3895.34.</br></br>At that level, the average has recovered only about one-fourth of the 96-point loss it suffered a week ago when the Fed announced its decision to raise short-term rates by a quarter of a percentage point.</br></br>The Fed and the Clinton administration had hoped long-term rates would rise little if at all following the central bank's action. Most economists believe long-term rates have more of an impact on the economy than short-term rates because they affect investment decisions such as whether to buy a home or new equipment for a business.</br></br>This week's quarterly Treasury auction of notes and bonds probably has caused rates to be firmer than they otherwise would be, leaving analysts to say yesterday that it is still too early to judge whether long-term rates will keep their gains.
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Fed Panel Voted for Delayed Tightening Of Credit, Report on May Meeting Says
WASHINGTON -- In an unusual move, the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee voted 9-2 at its May 17 meeting to leave credit conditions unchanged initially but to tighten after a short interval.</br></br>The slight firming, which occurred before the end of the month, was to take place unless economic and financial-market conditions "were to differ markedly" from expectations, according to minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The move was the third tightening by the central bank this year.</br></br>Moreover, the committee members leaned toward a further firming. The panel decided that before its next meeting, "some added reserve restraint would be acceptable, or some slight lessening of reserve pressure might be acceptable, depending on ongoing economic and financial developments." Since the meeting, the Fed has indicated it has made no significant changes in policy, but it has appeared to be willing to err slightly on the side of a tighter policy.</br></br>The minutes were released after the customary delay of six to eight weeks. The committee held another meeting last week. Minutes of that meeting won't be released until next month.</br></br>The panel's May move toward tighter credit reflected a perceived need "to counter the risks of rising inflationary pressures in the economy," the minutes said, and a view that a failure to act would mean more stringent steps would be needed later. The members said the economy remained strong, with unemployment relatively low and factories using a rising percentage of available capacity.
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Heartbeat Monitors; Investors Plot Action As They Follow The Market's Health
On Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 200 points, sliding past the 10 percent threshold marking an official correction from its October peak. Talk of recession intensified. But two days later, the market rallied, soaring more than 300 points to its biggest one-day percentage gain in at least four years.</br></br>The wild swings agitated investors. Should they sell their stocks? Should they move to less risky bonds, certificates of deposit and money-market funds? Or should they sit tight and ride out the turbulence? "When everything is uncertain, you just don't know where to put your money," said Michael Fekete, a Northwest D.C. resident and technical editor who has about $350,000 in stocks, bonds and other investments. "Where do you hide?"</br></br>Wall Street is bracing for an even rockier period of further deterioration in credit conditions and the housing market. The dollar remains weak and oil prices high. Poor corporate earnings are also dogging the economy. A second consecutive quarter of declining profits could lead to an "earnings recession," which some analysts say could prompt staff cuts, driving up the unemployment rate and further dampening consumer spending.</br></br>"These times are very volatile, so it is scary . . .," said Rita Cheng, a financial adviser at Ameriprise Financial Services in Bethesda. "Investors have every right to be nervous. The advice that I give to clients is you don't want to panic."</br></br>Still, Fekete, one of Cheng's clients, recently dumped some poor performers from his portfolio. He is not ruling out more changes but said, "I think we're just going to sit tight right now and see how that does."
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Recovery Slackens Late in Week
I NEW YORK, March 19 ia‰ÛÓThe ! stock market choked off a major reaction this week and launched a I recovery drive.</br></br>I The reaction, great as it was, still made only a dent in the sustained i bull market rise that started 18 | months ago.</br></br>away around seven per cent in a six- j session reaction. The recovery drive j in the final four days of this week : retraced 41 per cent of that loss. j What caused it all?</br></br>In Washington, Senator Fulbright j (D-Ark.) made a detailed effort to j show that his study of stock market j conditions had nothing to do with ' the stock market's action the past two ‰Û¢ weeks. j , Stock Exchange member firm of ! Paine, Webber, Jackson & Curtis in t his semimonthly review of the stock ! market commented:</br></br>; ‰ÛÏWhether warranted or not, this l month‰Ûªs steep drop in the stock mar-j ket seems bound to be dubbed ‰Û÷the : Fulbright break‰Ûª by market historians . .. , ‰ÛÏDespite the abruptness of this reac-^ tion, it is still of minor proportions The reaction pulled up somewhat short of breaking through to new low levels that would arouse fears of a : reversal of the market‰Ûªs fundamental direction.
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When Pockets of Strength Just Aren't Enough
America's Great Plains and Midwest regions are rebounding from the recession faster than other parts of the country, but economists say their recoveries aren't enough to lift the rest of the economy out of the doldrums.</br></br>Private-sector workers in the Great Plains and Midwest have seen the sharpest rise in income since the end of the recession in mid-2009, Commerce Department data show. Plains states such as North Dakota, Texas and Nebraska are reaping the benefits of growing demand for oil and food commodities in expanding economies like China. Turnarounds by the U.S. auto sector and other manufacturers, meanwhile, have reinvigorated America's industrial strongholds of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana.</br></br>Yet despite this success, the two regions that make up the nation's midsection contribute much less to the broader economy than do California and New York. Some Great Plains states are sparsely populated. That means that locals whose fortunes have improved thanks to oil and soaring crop prices can't be counted on to boost national consumer spending, which fuels two-thirds of the economy. North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Nebraska, for example, contribute only about 1.4% of the country's gross domestic product--roughly equal to Connecticut's share.</br></br>The recovery of the U.S. manufacturing and auto sectors, meanwhile, doesn't fully offset their collapse during the global economic crisis. Job cutbacks have kept Michigan's unemployment rate at 8.5% in May, well above the 6.9% rate the state saw in May 2007. Ohio's jobless rate, 7.3% in May, was 5.6% five years ago.</br></br>"It's not enough to have pockets of industrial rebirth," said Jim Diffley, chief regional economist at IHS Global Insight. States like Michigan and Ohio "are not going to be pulling everyone else along, though it's great that they're gaining. We still need to have consumers and banks complete the process" of whittling away bad debts in order to start spending and lending more, he said.
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3M Reports Jump in Profits, Raises Outlook
3M Co.'s first-quarter profit climbed 79%, as sales surged across all its businesses, causing the company to boost its financial outlook for the rest of the year.</br></br>Total sales at the consumer and industrial manufacturer rose 25% to $6.35 billion, fueled by new products, growth in emerging markets and improved demand from 3M's customers in automotive manufacturing and consumer electronics.</br></br>The sales growth was a quarterly record for 3M, which reported double-digit increases in each of its six major business segments.</br></br>The St. Paul, Minn., company now expects to earn $5.40 to $5.60 a share this year, up from its earlier forecast of $4.90 to $5.10 a share. 3M also forecast sales growth, excluding revenue from acquisitions, of 10% to 12%, compared with the company's January view of 5% to 7% growth</br></br>3M--whose products include Post-It notes, sand paper, Ace bandages and reflective films for flat-screen televisions--said the cost cuts and changes to its manufacturing process that it imposed during last year's recession are helping the company's margins now.
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Stocks Again Skid; Trade Quiet
NEW YORK. Juno 28 cAP) ‰ÛÓFor the second consecutive day the stock market today sank to a sharp loss. Trading was moderate.</br></br>Brokers blamed apprehen-ision over tightening credit and rising interest rates for the erosion of prices, j Some analysts said indications were that the market was headed for a test of its iMay lows but they said low volume on declines was at least a heartening factor.</br></br>1 Some key issues suffered losses ranging up to 5 points iand dragged the averages (down. Others which had been I weak in early trading were 'able to pare their losses and in some instances turn them into small gains.</br></br>The Dow-Jones average of 30 industrials fell 8.07 to 880.90, just about equal to its loss yesterday. The Associated Press 00-stock average de- clined 2.1 to 311.2 with industrials off 4.5. rails off .7 and utilities up 1. Standard & Poor‰Ûªs 500-stock index, which represents 85 per cent of the quoted value of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, dropped .41 to 85.G7.</br></br>(United Press International reported the average of all NYSE stocks traded today was off 0.43 per cent from the previous day‰Ûªs close. Using April 1. I960 prices as a 100 base, the indicator closed today at 96.69.)
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Democrats Offer Bill to Raise Minimum Wage;A Compromise With Labor, Measure Would Boost Rate to $4.55 in 3 Years
Congressional Democrats, with the backing of organized labor, yesterday introduced compromise legislation to raise the federal minimum wage to $4.55 over the next three years, but formally abandoned any effort to tie future increases to rising inflation.</br></br>Democratic congressional leaders worked out the compromise with labor after it became clear the initial proposal approved by the House Education and Labor Committee was going nowhere.</br></br>The compromise, a smaller increase than in earlier versions of the bill, is expected to have better chances of enactment.</br></br>The stripped-down measure, which is opposed by the principal business lobbying groups, could be voted on by both the House and the Senate before the start of the Democratic National Convention late next month.</br></br>The Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee is expected to draft the bill next week. In the House, the bill will be offered during the following week as a substitute for a bill approved earlier by a House committee.
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EDS Posts Profit on Cost Cuts, As Revenue Declines by 4.7%
Electronic Data Systems Corp. posted a fourth-quarter profit on cost cutting, but the computer-services pioneer based in Plano, Texas conceded its efforts haven't increased sales and said it planned a new round of cost cutting for this year.</br></br>The second-largest computer outsourcer in the world after International Business Machines Corp. reported net income of $53 million, or 10 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $337 million, or 70 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. The return to profit stems from nearly $1 billion in cost cuts after a series of restructurings.</br></br>"We've improved our margins and gotten rid of some of the bad [contracts] that were dragging us down," said Michael H. Jordan, EDS chairman and chief executive officer. "We've made significant progress in our problem accounts" that had lower net in prior periods, he said.</br></br>Excluding a $97 million restructuring charge and other one-time items, the company would have reported earnings of $130 million, or 25 cents a share.</br></br>Revenue fell 4.7% to $5.25 billion in the quarter from $5.51 billion. New contract signings, a significant indicator of future growth, were below plan, falling to $3.8 billion from a depressed $4 billion.
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For Insiders, It's All in the Timing
[Financial Analysis and Commentary]</br></br>When it comes to buying and selling their companies' stocks, there are two kinds of corporate insiders: Those who trade on a fixed schedule and those who don't. Investors should be careful to distinguish between the two.</br></br>Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates falls into the former camp, selling 20 million shares of the company he founded every three months. Those sales are made under a 10b5-1 plan, the Securities and Exchange Commission rule that allows executives to set up stock transactions in advance and thus not run afoul of insider-trading restrictions. But Mr. Gates's sales are so regular that the fact that they are made under a 10b5-1 plan is besides the point.</br></br>If one were to strip out such routine trades -- whether made under a 10b5-1 plan or not -- what would the performance of insider trades look like? Economists Lauren Cohen and Christopher Malloy of Harvard Business School and Lukasz Pomorski of the University of Toronto did just that. Their findings, recently published in the Journal of Finance, showed just how serendipitous the timing of the remaining insiders' trading turned out to be. In a similar analysis, The Wall Street Journal examined trades by corporate executives in the week before company news was announced.</br></br>The results showed trades executed by opportunistic executives were far more likely to score big returns (or avoid large losses) than those by insiders who traded at the same time each year.
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Cash Is a Viable Investment Again; With Stocks and Bonds Looking Less Attractive, Money Markets Perk Up
Dow Jones Newswires</br></br>Sexy it isn't, but cash is catching the eye of those on Wall Street and Main Street alike.</br></br>Considered a sucker's bet in the late 1990s -- when stocks, especially technology shares, boasted solid double-digit returns -- cash also didn't fare much better in the first half of this decade. Rapid-fire interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2001-03 made the cost of money cheap, and returns on parking funds in money-market accounts minuscule.</br></br>That is changing, but the pace of Fed interest-rate increases has been so gradual that it is only now beginning to register with investors who are casting around for better returns given the lackluster performance of riskier stocks this year.</br></br>It isn't only stocks that stand to lose as these interest-bearing instruments ascend to new heights. Longer-dated Treasury bonds are also looking increasingly unattractive in a world where the virtually risk-free cash investment promises nearly the same return as a 10-year note.
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Key Interest Rates
Annualized interest rates on certain investments as reported by the Federal</br></br>Reserve Board on a weekly-average basis:</br></br>WEEK ENDED:</br></br>Sep. 06, Aug. 26,</br></br>2005 2005
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Fed Imposes Tougher Rules On Some Banks --- Limited-Service Firms Face Curbs on Check Cashing And Other Operations
NEW YORK -- The Federal Reserve Board has imposed further tough restrictions on the operations of limited-service banks, a move that some bankers say will make these new banks unattractive to set up.</br></br>The restrictions, which are set out in a letter to Suburban Bancorp, Bethesda, Md., go beyond those publicly announced by the Fed, some bankers say. They prohibit a bank holding company from providing most banking services, such as check clearing, data processing and check cashing, for a limited-service banking office.</br></br>The new limitations also put the Fed increasingly at odds with the Comptroller of the Currency, which already has approved applications for dozens of limited service banks.</br></br>Limited-service banks, because they either don't make commercial loans or don't take demand deposits, fall outside the legal definition of a bank. Creation of large numbers of limited-service banks around the country would transform the banking industry, since they provide a way around the prohibition on interstate banking and bank ownership by non-banking businesses.</br></br>The latest restrictions strike most noticeably at bank holding companies, which are eager to set up limited-service banking operations beyond their home states. But Fed officials have made it clear that their real goal is to keep non-banking giants, such as Merrill Lynch & Co. and Sears, Roebuck & Co., out of the banking business.
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Your Money Matters (A Special Report); The Journal Report Online
CAPITAL EXCHANGE: HOUSING PRICES</br></br>CAPITAL EXCHANGE ALLOWS readers to weigh in on The Wall Street Journal's weekly Capital column, in which David Wessel looks at the economy and the forces shaping living standards world-wide. Here are some of the reader comments (and Mr. Wessel's responses) to the recent Capital column about Federal Reserve officials showing more signs of worry on rapidly rising housing prices.</br></br>RICK BROOKS WRITES:</br></br>I have heard of a long-term relationship between house prices and annual income or wage growth. Do you know of any studies that make the case for this relationship?</br></br>DAVID WESSEL RESPONDS:
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Asian, European Shares Ride High on Fed's Rate Cut; Tokyo and London Log Biggest Rallies in Years; A Short-Term Solution?
European and Asian stocks roared ahead -- with Europe's gains the strongest in four years -- in a day-after response to the aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.</br></br>Among the biggest rallies, Tokyo stocks wiped out Tuesday's plunge by jumping 3.7%, the best advance in five years, and London was up 2.8% to mark its best two-day run since March 2003.</br></br>Analysts warned that uncertainty remains after the recent bout of global financial turmoil, especially with major U.S. financial institutions set to continue reporting their results this week.</br></br>"Certainly these markets are not out of the woods yet," said Grant Williamson, an adviser at Hamilton Hindin Greene in New Zealand. "What we have seen is a very short-term solution and we will have to see if the U.S. economy improves."</br></br>In TOKYO, where many shares have been beaten down on fears about fallout from the U.S. subprime-mortgage problems, the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies rose 579.74 points to 16381.54. The Bank of Japan, as expected, held interest rates steady at the end of a policy meeting.
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Industrials Start Slump
NEW YORK, April 4 Uft‰ÛÓThe stock market failed today to run its gains into three in a row. It closed lower,'</br></br>The market-didn‰Ûªt make much of an effort to extend the upturn of the two previous sessions. It took a downward slant in the industrials'early and continued that way to the finish.</br></br>Rails and utilities showed minor strength during the morning. But the weight of easiness in industrials finally caused the other two major divisions to fall back. .</br></br>The Associated Press average of 60 stocks dropped 20 cents to $175.60 with the industrials dow n40 cents, the rails down 20 cents and the utilities unchanged. Volume slumped to 1,820,000 shares compared with 2,160,000 yesterday.</br></br>Metals were hit rather hard, particularly Phelps Dodge. It fell 3Va to 56*s with most of the selling concentrated in the last hour on reports the firm would show sharply lower first quarter earnings. This brought some selling into other metals.
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Welfare Cases Increase in Pr. George's; County Is Only Jurisdiction In Md. to Show Rise in 1997
While welfare cases in Maryland continue to decline dramatically, the caseload in Prince George's County increased by more than 800 people during the first four months of this year, according to state figures.</br></br>Prince George's, which has the second-largest caseload in Maryland, has lagged far behind the state in reducing its rolls and was Maryland's only jurisdiction to show an increase so far this year. Since January 1995, Maryland has cut its statewide caseload by 30 percent, while Prince George's has shown a 16 percent reduction, to 27,300 welfare recipients. Baltimore has reduced its caseload by 25,000 people, or 24 percent, despite a higher unemployment rate.</br></br>Kim Rhim, a consultant hired by Prince George's to review the training of caseworkers and managers, said many workers do not understand the new welfare policies, communicate seldom with managers and have not been trained to perform their new duty of helping people find jobs.</br></br>"Employees said that things are changing so quickly that they sometimes get information from the clients," said Rhim, executive director of Training Source Inc., which also does training and job placement. "The average employee is frustrated, overworked and overwhelmed. A lot of {caseworkers} are processing people as though welfare will be around forever."</br></br>Rhim said management must make more of an effort to talk directly to employees about changes, instead of passing along written information -- without explanation -- about new policies. And Rhim said employees need immediate training on how to steer potential welfare recipients into jobs. "The newest part of their job is to talk about jobs, and they don't know how to do it," she said. "As a result, some employees are doing business as usual."
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Fed up with envy; Government workers wouldn't mind a seat at a private table
According to D.C.'s Department of Employment Services, 202,000 of the jobs in Washington were federal government positions as of November 2009. There were 471,000 private-sector positions.</br></br>At a time when unemployment in the District is at a record high, this intermingling can result in uniquely D.C. conversations: "He was a level G-I-don't-even-know-what," but definitely something up there, says Alex MacLennan. MacLennan is at happy hour at a 14th Street NW bar, talking with a friend about the government worker he used to date. "And he was on that schedule where he got every other Friday off."</br></br>"And he was also at the gym at 9 a.m.," says MacLennan, instead of at his desk. Plus, the ex's boss let him leave early once or twice a week. The stereotype of the government worker used to fall within one of two categories. He could be the noble office drone, a human widget who bravely battled red tape. Or he could be the cobweb-covered sloth, overindulged compared with his private-sector counterparts, the ones who watch their unused vacation days float away like dreams deferred.</br></br>Either way, the most remarkable characteristic of the civil servant was being blandly unremarkable, which is why the Google phrase "movies about federal employees" will turn up exactly zero hits.</br></br>But during the dark days of the Great Recession, the sexiest fringe benefit to any job became security. Stodgy is hot. Civil servants = genius! Visits to federal jobs site USAJobs.gov were up 18 percent in 2009 from 2008, according to the Office of Personnel Management, and up 61 percent for those who came to the site more than once. In May 2009, a Gallup poll found that 40 percent of Americans would consider a federal career, compared with 24 percent in 2006. On Facebook groups for federal employees, there are sightings of fed groupies -- wall postings by people who are not employed by the government, but really wish they were.
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In Defense Of Virtue, Gambling: Gambling Can Reward Virtue
To allow myself more time for gamming. I don't dissipate my energy thinking about the real world. I let Post columnist George Will do it for me. Whatever lie says about the Middle Past or inflation or traffic patterns at Chevy Chase Circle T assume to be the correct position, and adopt it as my own.</br></br>from Connecticut, which lie described as a veritable gambling hell, with legalized dog racing, jai-alai. lotteries and off-track betting, and he disapproved sternly. Gambling, he said, is an activity that debases our society and corrupts its citizens.</br></br>In Connecticut, money raised by gambling helps the state avoid instituting an income lax. but even that did not mollify the columnist. To Will, gambling is a regressive revenue-raising device Hint draws money disproportionately from "minority and poor populations that can ill afford to gamble. . . and have little understanding of the probability of losses.‰Û</br></br>This argument seems slightly out of character for the man who regularly chides government bureaucrats bent on protecting the masses from themselves, for the sake of their own good. Will displays this very sort of contemptuous paternalism in his view of gamblers, pitying the poor souls w.lio throw away their rent money on "lotteries in which more than 99.9 percent of all players are losers.‰Û</br></br>No matter that this indulgence buys a bit of entertainment, excitement and optimism for people with a 0.0 percent chance of working within Hie capitalist system to make a lot of money. Will disapproves of any ‰ÛÏlust for sudden wealth. v The arguments about the dire social consequences of gambling, about the tots who must go barefoot because |v daddy blew his paycheck at the track, r; are old and familiar ones, with just åÇ ‰Û¢ enough truth in them to provide ammunition for anti-gambling moralists. And Will acknowledges that this is what he is; he views gambling principally as a moral issue.
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Infosys Wants U.S. Acquisitions
Author: Dhanya Ann Thoppil</br></br>BANGALORE - Infosys Technologies Ltd. is looking to spend up to $200 million to acquire companies in the U.S. in its bid to secure large government contracts, its chief financial officer said, as the Indian technology firm looks to boost its presence in the world's largest outsourcing market.</br></br>"We have started operations of a new subsidiary in the U.S. Probably we can look at a small acquisition to kick-start it," Chief Financial Officer V. Balakrishnan said in an interview Wednesday at the company's headquarters.</br></br>Unlike its peers, Infosys Technologies, India's second-largest outsourcing firm by revenue after Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., has been maintaining a cautious stance on the global economic recovery. Despite worries over high unemployment in the U.S. and the debt crisis spreading across Europe, the company believes the U.S. market continues to grow and represents opportunities for Indian outsourcing firms. Research firm Forrester Research Inc. expects U.S. business and government purchases of information and technology outsourcing and consulting services to total $389 billion this year.</br></br>The Nasdaq and Mumbai-listed company set up a U.S. unit called Infosys Public Services Inc. last year in a bid to tap into the U.S. government's multi-billion-dollar healthcare and defense markets. Infosys is looking to buy a company which has a license to engage with the federal government, especially in defense projects, it said.
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Stark Says Health Plan Would Fit Into Budget: Employers Would Pay 80 of Premium
The- nntinnnt health plan spou-soretTby. Rep. Fortney "Pete" Stark .(D-Calif.) will be fully funded and will not increase the federal deficit, according to preliminary estimates released by Stark last night,A congressional subcommittee, is.to begin voting on the plan nexFweek.</br></br>Because of widespread public fears that health reform could causefhealth costs to rise sharply, the Stark plan would have no chance of passage if it increased the federal deficit. President Clinton‰Ûªs plan was sharply attacked when the Congressional Budget Office said it would boost the deficit by $74 billion over six years.</br></br>Stark's proposal would require employers to pay 80 percent of the premiums for health insurance policies for their workers. It also would create a mew federal "Medicare</br></br>Part C" program that would cover the unemployed, the poor, 35 million people currently insured by Medicaid and some employees of small businesses, Cuts in Medicare, Medicaid and some new taxes would help offset costs, and the 39 million Americans who lack health insurance would be covered.</br></br>The figures released last night were developed by the staff of Stark's House Ways and Means subcommittee on health "in consultation with the staff of the Congressional Budget Office," and they cover only the year 2000, not the usual five-year period, Stark said.
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THE WASHINGTON POST, TUESDAY, AUGUST 10, 1982
-‰ÛA lagging indicator,‰Û the White House said when the unemployment statistics-'for July rose to the highest lever sitfie 1941. As if a jobless rate of 9.8 portent was part of the familiar postW8?^icture of ups and downs signaled By leading and lagging indicators.'</br></br>In fafct, the unemployment numbers‰ÛÓlike those for inflation, interest rates and the budget deficit‰ÛÓhave recently gone way beyond the experience ;of the postwar era. Prudence suggests, that instead of pretending we know exactly what is happening to the economy, we acknowledge that we are on'uncharted seas where anything might- happen‰ÛÓincluding a prolonged recession.</br></br>The economic features of the last 40 years, are, to be sure, well defined. Steads,‰Ûª‰ÛÏconsumer demand has been the ffloior force for a period of general pfpgperity. So long as income kept %,\ying into the hands of the pubjjjvthe economy kept moving forward For consumers have regularly spent a highly predictable chunk (from 93 to 95 percent) of disposable income.</br></br>Recession, of course, punctuated the fat years from time to time. But in a way that too was well understood, and self-containing.</br></br>Usually an excess of demand over supply, occasionally fed by an international crisis, drove prices up in a brief inflationary spurt. The Federal Reserve Board then acted to slow down demand by restricting the money*-supply. Retailers and manufacturers who had ordered too many goods o'? invested in too much productive capacity were caught with an excess of inventory. As they cut back, there was a slowing of economic activity, which eventually showed up in a layjjjg-off of workers. Unemployment thus figured as a ‰ÛÏlagging indicator.‰Ûª'
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Optimism's Return Lifts Tech Stocks
With the second-quarter earnings season almost here, optimism replaced pessimism and tech stocks resumed their rise.</br></br>The Nasdaq Composite Index, dominated by technology names, surged 2.52%, or 97.47 points, to 3960.57, recovering most of Wednesday's 128.83-point loss. The index is again nearing the 4000 level that it briefly surpassed in June.</br></br>More stocks rose than fell on the New York Stock Exchange. But Old Economy industrial stocks held the Dow Jones Industrial Average down. The average fell a scant 0.02%, or 2.13 points, to 10481.47, in one of the smallest daily moves the blue-chip index has taken in recent years.</br></br>Bonds fell and the dollar rose.</br></br>Stocks have been held back by end-of-quarter earnings warnings from companies that will miss expectations, said Tim Morris, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust. With the warning season ending, positive reports are set to begin.
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your Money: 10 Stocks to Ponder for a 1997 Portfolio INVESTING
firt‰Ûªs a safe bet we'll never see I another two years in tire stock tJ. market like 1995 and 1996. jYou just don‰Ûªt make 30 percent rback-to-back. But why not try for a ‰Û÷triple?</br></br>firt‰Ûªs a safe bet we'll never see I another two years in tire stock tJ. market like 1995 and 1996. jYou just don‰Ûªt make 30 percent rback-to-back. But why not try for a ‰Û÷triple? f \ In 1995,1 started compiling an ‰Û÷annual list of 10 stocks for the year fahead, culling selections from the .choices of folks whose opinions 1 ‰Ûª.Value. That year, the list returned å£31.4 percent, compared with 34.4 ! percent for the Standard & Poor's ] 500-stock index. Last year's list did even better, returning 32.0 ‰Û¢percent, compared with 29.3 percent for the S&P. (These figures assume that dividends were rein-'Vested.,The year ends, in all cases, oh Jan. 16.)</br></br>Not only did our lists prove you can make lots of money in the stock market, they cohfirmed an axiom of academic research: You ;;usually need to own no more than 10 stocks to come close to duplicating the market averages, as long as the companies are in different businesses.</br></br>‰ÐÊ.'‰Û¢The 1996 portfolio performed Tike most its size: a few big win-nfers, a few big losers and bunch in :the middle. Seagate Technology Inc.;,ihe hard-drive maker, was up -100 percent; Schlumberger Ltd., - the oilfield services company, rose " 75 percent. Losers were Eskimo Pie Corp. and Hanson PLC, the huge British conglomerate.</br></br>betical order), with a few warnings: First, I don‰Ûªt believe in owning stocks for only a year, and, while we‰ÛªU examine the results in January 1998, they should be considered long-term holdings. Second, these tips are those of other analysts.
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Forex View: U.S. Data Point To Sliding Dollar
Fresh worries over a slowing U.S. economy could give the euro an additional near-term boost as concerns over the euro zone's sovereign-debt crisis ease.</br></br>Disappointing U.S. data -- especially in the housing, labor and consumer sectors -- have fanned fears the U.S. economy could slow appreciably in the second half. Some openly fear a double-dip recession, a possibility many analysts see as unlikely but still has led investors out of the dollar.</br></br>The U.S. fears have moved front and center just as well-received government debt auctions and bank-stress tests in Europe have fueled positive sentiment toward the euro.</br></br>"Everyone's ready for a potential weaker half of the year for the U.S. economy," said Robert Tull, vice president and managing director of foreign exchange and commodity derivatives at Fifth Third Bancorp in Cincinnati.</br></br>The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, fell to a three-month low Friday. The euro on Thursday moved above $1.31 to its highest point in nearly 12 weeks, after rising more than 10% on the dollar since the June 7 low of $1.1876.
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From Thermidor To Brumaire
Thermidor, the name of the month in the French Revolutionary Calendar in which Robespierre fell and the Reign of Terror ended, has become the name by which historians denote an era of waning revolutionary ardor. Conservative critics of the 104th Congress complain that it went directly from the ancien regime to Thermidor, without any intervening revolution.</br></br>The deflation of their aspirations is symbolized by Newt Gingrich brandishing buckets in which ice had been delivered to congressional offices since before the invention of refrigeration. The Commerce and Education departments may not be finished, but ice deliveries are, so there.</br></br>Some depressed conservatives -- one of them calls the 104th "the Bush administration in drag" -- may think that the end of the 104th was in its beginning, in its opening day hoopla, which included, among much else, a children's party featuring the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers and Newt Gingrich. Back then it was hard to have any Washington gathering of two or more without having the speaker speak, and at the children's party he stuffed into the wee minds this explanation of the event's Larger Meaning: "We wanted the Power Rangers here because they're multiethnic role models in which women and men play equally strong roles."</br></br>There has been too much blather, much of it from Gingrich, who has paid dearly for his refusal to heed the advice given to him -- early and often -- that he ration the portions of himself that he serves to the public. Still, measuring the 104th against history rather than its own rhetoric, it was a remarkably consequential Congress.</br></br>Intelligent people differ concerning the prudence of the 104th's most important act -- repeal of a 60-year-old entitlement to welfare. But the repeal ranks with the 1981 tax cuts, Medicare, the 1964 and 1965 Civil Rights Acts and the Taft-Hartley Act as one of the most momentous legislative acts of the past six decades.
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Politics & Economics: Blasts Muddle Cairo's Mission; Egypt Terrorism Takes Economic Toll, Complicates Liberalization
THE BOMBING of another popular Egyptian beach resort on Monday could further set back Cairo's attempts to liberalize its political, economic and legal systems, and adds a potential complication to U.S. efforts to spread democracy through the region.</br></br>The attacks at the Dahab resort on the Sinai Peninsula -- which officials yesterday afternoon said killed at least 24 people -- promise to buffet Egypt's economy at a time when President Hosni Mubarak has been pursuing aggressive economic changes as a way to reduce unemployment and strengthen his party's flagging popularity. Mr. Mubarak's hope has been that greater prosperity would blunt the appeal of Islamic fundamentalists and give him room to expand the democratic process without threatening the government's secular foundation.</br></br>Instead, what has emerged is a violent and sustained campaign by radical Islamists to destabilize Mr. Mubarak's government -- and a flourishing of support among many ordinary Egyptians who back the Islamists' goal of a religious state, if not their methods. Already, that mix prompted Mr. Mubarak to recently suspend a round of local elections and delay easing Egypt's draconian security laws. Now, in the wake of the Dahab attacks, there is concern that these and other overhauls could be pushed back further and possibly suspended altogether.</br></br>"It's happened once again -- we take a few steps forward and then many leaps back," says Ibrahim Hassan, an Egyptian lawyer who has been active in pressing the government for greater judicial reforms.</br></br>How Mr. Mubarak, 77 years old, proceeds has enormous implications for the U.S. and its goal of pacifying the Middle East through democracy. Cairo has long supported the U.S. on a range of big regional issues and is one of only two Arab countries -- Jordan is the other -- that has made peace with Israel. Egypt also is the recipient of some $2 billion of U.S. aid a year, second only to Israel in U.S. foreign-aid disbursements.
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TECH INVESTOR; Three Area Firms Pushing Ahead With IPOs
With the stock market as spongy as a swamp, and initial public offerings disappearing as if they were swallowed by quicksand, three fearless Washington entrepreneurs are nonetheless starting down the path toward going public.</br></br>While several would-be public companies in the region have pushed the pause button on their IPOs and the most recent one instantly fell below its offering price, three new deals have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</br></br>Nettel Communications Inc. of Washington, which provides communications services to medium-size businesses, hopes to raise $175 million in an offering that was filed last Friday and made public this week.</br></br>MainControl Inc. of McLean hopes to raise about $57 million with an offering that hit the SEC two weeks ago. The company creates software that businesses use to manage their "e-infrastructure," which to non-geeks means their office computers, networks, Internet connections and other information technology equipment.</br></br>Vastera Inc. of Dulles wants to sell $70 million worth of stock. In an April 7 filing, Vastera said it provides international trade management services, using the Internet to help companies make their importing and exporting operations more efficient.
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Tuition Soars at Public Colleges; Costs Up 13% for the Year, 47% for the Decade, Study Says
Tuition costs at public colleges rose more rapidly last year than at any time over the past three decades, according to a report released yesterday. After adjusting for inflation, costs were up 13 percent for the year and 47 percent for the past decade.</br></br>The annual report by the College Board, which collects data from more than 4,000 institutions, said tuition and fees also rose substantially last year at private colleges and universities, but at a slower rate than in the public sector. If room and board costs are included, the average student now pays $26,854 a year to attend a private university, and $10,636 to attend a public university in his or her own state.</br></br>"College tuition and fees are getting out of control, and we need to do something about it," said Rep. Howard P. "Buck" McKeon (R- Calif.) who has proposed legislation that would penalize institutions that "repeatedly engage in exorbitant tuition hikes."</br></br>According to the College Board, the 13 percent real increase in tuition at public colleges last year was "the highest in at least three decades." It followed an inflation-adjusted increase of 8 percent the previous year, "a growth rate that had not been seen for 20 years."</br></br>The College Board survey suggests that the rise of tuition costs has been particularly rapid in mid-Atlantic and midwestern states, as universities scramble to plug deficits caused by declining state appropriations. The University of Maryland increased its prices by 21 percent last year and has proposed an 11 percent increase for next year. Costs at the University of Virginia are nearly 30 percent higher than they were last fall.
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Tuesday's markets: Industrials set another high, climbing 10.44
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to its fifth consecutive record, other stock-market indexes were shaken by profit-taking ahead of important economic data to be released this week.</br></br>But the prospect of a nasty surprise from producer or consumer price data didn't rattle bond investors, who sent bond prices up and yields -- which move in the opposite direction of prices -- down to levels not seen in eight months.</br></br>The Dow edged 10.44 higher to 6266.04, while the broader Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 2.31 to 729.56. Despite a report released late Monday showing that demand for computer chips grew more rapidly than expected in October, profit-taking drove tech stocks lower late yesterday. That pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index down 6.14 to 1256.53.</br></br>"It was a very strange day," said Jack Baker, managing director of stock trading for Furman Selz. "The bond market looked like it was never going to quit, but selling in the [stock] futures pit weighed on the stock market." Traders said the selling appeared to come from Salomon Brothers. Salomon declined to comment.</br></br>But the bond market generated most of the fireworks, as the yield on the bellwether 30-year bond fell below the psychologically important 6.5% level to 6.44%.
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Criterion Group's Plan to Go Public Is Viewed Warily by Other Fund Management Concerns
Anyone for Criterion Group shares?</br></br>Charles Miller, chairman of the big Houston money management firm, wants to cash in some chips. While he's a popular figure on the investment scene, even some of his peers don't want to be on the receiving end of the company's initial offering.</br></br>When the stock market looks healthy enough, Criterion plans to sell to the public 1.6 million common shares, about a 21% stake, for $21 to $24 apiece. Management will sell about one million of the shares -- an unusually high proportion of insider selling. At a $22.50-a-share offering price, the company would get $13 million of total proceeds of $36 million.</br></br>Mr. Miller will sell about 514,000 shares, cutting his stake to about 23%. He'll get about $11.5 million in cash, and his remaining holdings will be valued at about $38.5 million. But he won't be surrendering many votes to outside investors. Criterion has two classes of common shares, one carrying 20 times as many votes as the other. After the offering, Mr. Miller will have 86% of the votes.</br></br>The money manager may be selling at the right time. Since 1985, Criterion's revenue and profit have surged because of strong mutual fund sales. In the first half, its U.S. Government High Yield Trust alone accounted for 44% of revenue of $25.4 million. If interest rates rise, Criterion's customers could withdraw money, "eroding commissions and fees," says Bob Natale, editor of Standard & Poor's new-issue newsletter.
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Labor Costs Show Moderate 3.4 Pct. Rise
Despite a falling unemployment rate, labor costs in the United States continue to rise at a moderate annual rate of 3.4 percent, the Labor Department reported yesterday.</br></br>The department's employment cost index, which covers wages, salaries and fringe benefits, increased 1.2 percent in the third quarter and 3.4 percent in the 12 months ended in September, the department said.</br></br>Many forecasters and financial market participants, concerned about a possible acceleration of inflation, have been watching various measures of wages to spot any indication that labor costs have begun to increase more rapidly. Unless productivity-output per hour worked-also rose, a faster rate of wage change likely would mean higher inflation. Some expected that lower unemployment would raise employment costs by increasing competition to hire workers.</br></br>However, the quarterly increase in the index was almost identical to a 1.1 percent rise in the third quarter of last year. The index rose 0.7 percent in the second quarter, but because the figures are not adjusted for seasonal variation, comparing changes from one quarter to the next may be misleading.</br></br>For the 12 months ended in June, the increase was 3.3 percent, slightly less than the 3.4 percent in the year ended in September. For the year ended in September 1986, the rise was 3.6 percent.
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Area Single-Family Home Sales Rose 8 Percent Last Year
Sales of single-family homes jumped 8 percent last year in the Washington area, mostly because of low interest rates and the availability of more affordable entry-level housing.</br></br>But the growth in sales last year was not matched by price increases. The median price rose just 2 percent, to $198,200. Nationally the consumer price index rose 3 percent during the same period.</br></br>The figures are a bright contrast to 1991, when the median price of $195,150 was slightly below the previous year‰Ûªs, and well below 1989's median price of $204,400. Sales also had fallen 5 percent in 1991, according to the data compiled by Rufus S. Lusk & Son Inc., a local real estate information company. The median price is the point at which half the homes cost more and half cost less.</br></br>The figures include sales of town houses and detached houses, but not condominiums. [For condominium sales data, see Page E3.J that the data's relevance for a particular area depends on the homogeneity of existing housing and new construction.</br></br>‰ÛÏYou can have a Zip Code with a small number of sales and if you have a fairly significant development‰ÛÓeither at the low end or the higher end [of a price range]‰ÛÓthat can skew the statistics,‰Û Lusk said.
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Regulators Rethink Pre-IPO Chatter --- SEC Reviewing 'Quiet Period' Rules That Limit What Companies Can Say Ahead of Offerings
U.S. securities regulators are reviewing whether to ease limits on what companies can say ahead of initial public offerings, after lawmakers complained small investors were kept in the dark during this year's botched stock sale by Facebook Inc.</br></br>Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has asked her staff to review the "quiet period" rules barring remarks about a firm's prospects around the time of a share sale, according to a letter she recently sent to Rep. Darrell Issa (R., Calif.).</br></br>"We should review our communications rules and the application of the quiet period" in light of changes in technology and the stock market in recent years, she said in the Aug. 23 letter, which was a response to one Mr. Issa sent in June.</br></br>The SEC's stance could open the door to more changes for IPOs, even as the agency has yet to complete rules to implement modifications set out in this year's Jumpstart our Business Startups, or JOBS, Act. The law was designed to facilitate capital-raising for some companies.</br></br>The JOBS Act, and Facebook's flubbed debut in May, have made IPOs one of the most controversial issues in markets this year. Facebook's share price fell sharply from its $38 debut, exposing what Mr. Issa called "substantial flaws" in the process.
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Injunction Stay Sends Stock List Reeling: Dow Index Plunges 7.10
NEW YORK, Oct. 22 CAP)‰ÛÓA further stay of the Taft-Hartley injunction against the striking steelworkers today sent the stock market to its'sharpest loss in a month.</br></br>Blue chips reeled under heavy selling at the close. The ticker tape was as much as 4 minutes behind transactions in the final 12 minutes of tradir^.</br></br>This last selling wave was sparked by news that Federal judges had delayed enforcement of the back-to-work injunction until next week.</br></br>Earlier the market shrank back from a moderate early advance as news came that an indefinite stay had been granted pending a decision on the union's appeal against use of the injunction.</br></br>age stocks had a bull market of their own, some rising sensationally on hopes of greater spending and. apparent^ in satisfaction over the shift of the Army missile unit to the civilian space agency.
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Montgomery Plan Pays Off for Schools; $98.9 Million More Proposed
Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan today is to propose spending almost $100 million more on public education over the next year, focusing much of the increase and other resources on helping the county's most vulnerable children do better in the classroom.</br></br>The proposal is part of Duncan's budget for the coming fiscal year, a $2.6 billion plan that represents an 8.2 percent increase over current spending.</br></br>Duncan (D) is not proposing any tax cuts at a time of large budget surpluses. But his education plan would restore the county's contribution to public schools, as measured by per-pupil spending adjusted for inflation, to the level it reached before recession struck in 1991. The spending plan underscores the influence new School Superintendent Jerry D. Weast had in shaping the county budget, which gives the school system virtually its entire request. Duncan is scheduled to present the budget today during a noon news conference at Twinbrook Elementary School in Rockville.</br></br>The size of the spending increase for education can be attributed partly to a school system plan to keep better track of spending and hold teachers more accountable. Duncan had criticized the school system for not having such a plan in place.</br></br>The increase also comes as a strong economy generates windfalls for local governments, and many regional school systems are benefiting. Fairfax County officials recently proposed a 7 percent increase in the public schools budget. In the District, Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) has proposed a $5 billion budget that includes an $80 million increase for education.
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F10 Sunday, November 11,1779
- Investors are still sorting out the meaning of the latest credit tightening moves by the Federal Reserve. If the Fed follows through on its announced, intentions, the long-term implications go well beyond a temporary increase in interest rates and a sharp decline in ^‰ÐÊtock prices on record volume.</br></br>‰ÛÏ Interest rates and stock prices may. 3be more volatile in the future than in the past, a depressing prospect to investors who have endured the volatile -markets of the 1970s. The market may ;be more volatile because the Fed seems to have given up its role in stabilizing interest rates.</br></br>The Fed can control either the quantity of money or its price in terms of interest rates, but not both. For decades the Fed chose to keep interest rates as stable as possible while allowing the growth of the money supply to -fluctuate over a wide range. Now the ::Fed seems ready to control the money ;å¨upply tightly while accepting more -volatility in interest rates.</br></br>; The departure from controlling in--terest rates represents another nail in Ithe coffin of the Keynesian theory ;that has dominated economics for the past generation. For decades the Fed practiced the Keynesian precept that interest rates are more important than monetary growth, but its latest move aligns it more closely with the monetarist school of economics.</br></br>- Monetarists such as Milton Fried* -man have advocated greater control ;over money supply growth for years, a
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Blue Chips Fall 37.74, Nasdaq Posts a Gain
Technology stalwarts drifted higher on positive earnings prospects but Old Economy blue chips fell and bonds lost ground, as volumes remained at low summertime levels.</br></br>The dollar, meanwhile, strengthened, particularly against the euro, as the European common currency again fell close to its all-time low.</br></br>Battered by inflation fears, the euro fell to 89.28 cents from Monday's 90.08 cents, near the low of 88.45 cents set in May.</br></br>On the stock front, some technology and Nasdaq investors said the market will likely see a strong rally after Labor Day, because the specter of interest-rate increases has largely dissipated. Others are eagerly counting down to third-quarter earnings reports.</br></br>But at least during yesterday's session, tech optimism, and a boost to financial stocks from acquisition reports surrounding Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette, weren't enough to offset weakness in other sectors.
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Germany Lowers Key Interest Rate; Central Bank's Cautious, Half- Point Cut Disappoints Some
Continuing Germany's piecemeal retreat from high interest rates, the Bundesbank today lowered its key discount rate by a half point, triggering similar cuts in several other European nations.</br></br>There was disappointment at the small size of the cut to 7.5 percent from 8 percent and the fact that Germany's central bank also did not reduce the Lombard emergency financing rate, which remains at 9 percent.</br></br>One analyst said the cut was too small to have a significant impact on the economy of European countries.</br></br>"There must be more steps taken," said Dietmar Viertel, an analyst with the Duesseldorf firm of Trinkhaus and Burkhardt.</br></br>The fact that the Bundesbank made any cut at all is seen as an indication that board members were encouraged by a pact signed last weekend between the German government and opposition parties agreeing to a package of taxes and cost-cutting measures aimed at paying for unification.
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Mortgage Rates Fall to 2010 Low
Home-mortgage rates fell to the lowest level of the year in recent days as Treasury yields slumped due to investors seeking a haven following last week's stock-market turmoil, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of mortgage rates.</br></br>Mortgage rates tend to follow Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year note dropped to a five-month intraday low last Thursday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered an intraday drop of nearly 1,000 points.</br></br>The latest week was the fifth in a row that interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages fell, noted Freddie Chief Economist Frank Nothaft.</br></br>The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.93% for the week ended Thursday, down from last week's 5% average but up from 4.86% a year ago. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were 4.3%, compared with 4.36% and 4.27%, respectively.</br></br>Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 3.95%, a low since Freddie began tracking such mortgages in early 2005, down from last week's 3.97% and 4.82% a year earlier. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs were 4.02%, down from 4.07% and 4.71%, respectively.
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Fed Chief: Economy in 'Test Period': Business Leaders Warned to...
HOT SPRINGS, Va., Oct. 7‰ÛÓ Federal Reserve Chairman Paul A. Volcker, who met with leaders of the nation‰Ûªs largest corporations here today, later warned that prices and wages should be restrained as the economic recovery continues.</br></br>Volcker told reporters at the fall meeting of the Business Council that ‰ÛÏwe are entering a testing period‰Û when price increases and wage demands must reflect the low inflation levels of the past year and not the higher expectations of the past decade.</br></br>‰ÛÏWe live in a different world,‰Û he said, and the important question is" whether ‰ÛÏwage decisions and price decisions reflect what I believe is the new reality.‰Û</br></br>Earlier, the business leaders predicted a strong but lopsided recovery in 1984, with gains in the consumer sector undercut by a serious weakness in American exports.</br></br>Members of the Business Council representing 65 of the biggest blue-chip corporations gave a generally optimistic outlook for the economy, but expressed concern and frustration over the inability of the Reagan administration and Congress to reduce the record budget deficits that are projected for the mid-1980s.
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Housing Strong For Last Month: Housing at 2 Million Annually
Housing construction remained strong last month, the government said yesterday, but interest rates have soared dramatically since, and builders are bracing for a sharp slowdown in 1979.</br></br>New construction of homes and apartments was at an annual rate of 2.08 million units in October‰ÛÓvirtually unchanged from September, the Commerce Department said. It was the eighth consecutive month that starts have been above the 2 million mark, a level economists consider to be healthy.</br></br>However, building permits, which indicate future housing construction, fell 2.9 percent, the department said.</br></br>‰ÛÏWe believe that starts should finish the year at nearly 2 million, which is great,‰Û said Michael Sumichrast, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. ‰ÛÏBut next year will tell a different tale, and starts should fall to about 1.5 million.‰Û</br></br>The government has issued slightly more optimistic estimates, saying starts will fall to between 1.65 and 1.7 million in 1979.
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'Unliquidated Monopoly Profits' and Concentration
GEORGE M. Humphrey, cally brings forth an increase the Treasury Secretary, and in price for the available sup-William McChesney Martin, ply. But in concentrated in-Federal Reserve Board chair- dustries, he says, where a few</br></br>GEORGE M. Humphrey, cally brings forth an increase the Treasury Secretary, and in price for the available sup-William McChesney Martin, ply. But in concentrated in-Federal Reserve Board chair- dustries, he says, where a few man, who are scheduled t o testify. today before the .Congressional Joint Economic Committee, may collide with an academic missile just launched at Cambridge,.</br></br>Kenneth Galbraith, the Harvard professor, has buttressed the major criticisms of the Government‰Ûªs apti-inflation policies with- theoretical supports stronger than any yet advanced.</br></br>Galbraith‰Ûªs rocket appears in the May issue of a professional journal. Harvard‰Ûªs ‰ÛÏReview of Economics and Statistics.‰Ûª‰Ûª</br></br>Its conclusion‰ÛÓthat the so-called tight money policy is increasing economic eoncen-tration by discriminating against small, competitive firms‰ÛÓis not startling. It has been voiced repeatedly by ‰ÛÏliberal‰Û Democrats, small business spokesmen and trade union professionals among others. The facile Galbraith himself has previously published a popular version bf his ideas in a middle-brow magazine.
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