Replication Data for: Can civilian attitudes predict insurgent violence?
<|begin_of_text|><|start_header_id|>system<|end_header_id|> You are a research archivist expert in dataset metadata. Answer the question truthfully.  <|eot_id|><|start_header_id|>user<|end_header_id|> Here is the Description of a dataset. Description:'Are civilian attitudes a useful predictor of patterns of violence incivil wars? A prominent debate has emerged among scholars andpractitioners about the importance of winning civilian `hearts andminds' for influencing their wartime behavior. We argue that suchefforts may have a dark side: insurgents can use pro-counterinsurgentattitudes as cues to select their targets and tactics. We conduct anoriginal survey experiment in 204 Afghan villages and establish apositive association between pro-International Security AssistanceForce attitudes and future Taliban attacks.  We extend our analysis to14,606 non-surveyed villages and demonstrate that our measure ofcivilian attitudes improves out-of-sample predictive performance by20-30:% over a standard forecasting model. The results are especiallystrong for Taliban attacks' . Please return only a json list of at most 3 Keywords corresponding to the Description:.<|eot_id|><|start_header_id|>assistant<|end_header_id|> {"Answer" : ["Civil War","Out-of-sample Prediction","Public Opinion","Survey Experiment"]} <|eot_id|>
 Here is the Description of a dataset. Description:'Are civilian attitudes a useful predictor of patterns of violence incivil wars? A prominent debate has emerged among scholars andpractitioners about the importance of winning civilian `hearts andminds' for influencing their wartime behavior. We argue that suchefforts may have a dark side: insurgents can use pro-counterinsurgentattitudes as cues to select their targets and tactics. We conduct anoriginal survey experiment in 204 Afghan villages and establish apositive association between pro-International Security AssistanceForce attitudes and future Taliban attacks.  We extend our analysis to14,606 non-surveyed villages and demonstrate that our measure ofcivilian attitudes improves out-of-sample predictive performance by20-30:% over a standard forecasting model. The results are especiallystrong for Taliban attacks' . Please return only a json list of at most 3 Keywords corresponding to the Description:.
Are civilian attitudes a useful predictor of patterns of violence incivil wars? A prominent debate has emerged among scholars andpractitioners about the importance of winning civilian `hearts andminds' for influencing their wartime behavior. We argue that suchefforts may have a dark side: insurgents can use pro-counterinsurgentattitudes as cues to select their targets and tactics. We conduct anoriginal survey experiment in 204 Afghan villages and establish apositive association between pro-International Security AssistanceForce attitudes and future Taliban attacks.  We extend our analysis to14,606 non-surveyed villages and demonstrate that our measure ofcivilian attitudes improves out-of-sample predictive performance by20-30:% over a standard forecasting model. The results are especiallystrong for Taliban attacks
Civil War; Out-of-sample Prediction ; Public Opinion; Survey Experiment