Replication Data for: The Party Leadership Model: An Early Forecast of the 2015 British General Election
<|begin_of_text|><|start_header_id|>system<|end_header_id|> You are a research archivist expert in dataset metadata. Answer the question truthfully.  <|eot_id|><|start_header_id|>user<|end_header_id|> Here is the Description of a dataset. Description:'British political parties select their leaders to win elections.  The winning margin of the party leader among the selectorate reflects how likely they think she is to win the General Election.  The present research compares the winning margins of party leaders in their party leadership elections and uses the results of this comparison to predict that the party leader with the larger winning margin will become the next Prime Minister.  I term this process ``the Party Leadership Model.''  The model correctly forecasts 8 out of 10 past elections, while making these forecasts four years in advance on average.  According to a Bayesian analysis, there is a 95 percent probability that having the larger winning margin in party leadership elections increases the chances of winning the General Election.  Because David Cameron performed better am' . Please return only a json list of at most 3 Keywords corresponding to the Description:.<|eot_id|><|start_header_id|>assistant<|end_header_id|> {"Answer" : ["Bayesian Inference","Citizen Forecasting","Election Forecasting","British General Elections","Party Leadership Contests","2x2 Contingency Table"]} <|eot_id|>
 Here is the Description of a dataset. Description:'British political parties select their leaders to win elections.  The winning margin of the party leader among the selectorate reflects how likely they think she is to win the General Election.  The present research compares the winning margins of party leaders in their party leadership elections and uses the results of this comparison to predict that the party leader with the larger winning margin will become the next Prime Minister.  I term this process ``the Party Leadership Model.''  The model correctly forecasts 8 out of 10 past elections, while making these forecasts four years in advance on average.  According to a Bayesian analysis, there is a 95 percent probability that having the larger winning margin in party leadership elections increases the chances of winning the General Election.  Because David Cameron performed better am' . Please return only a json list of at most 3 Keywords corresponding to the Description:.
British political parties select their leaders to win elections.  The winning margin of the party leader among the selectorate reflects how likely they think she is to win the General Election.  The present research compares the winning margins of party leaders in their party leadership elections and uses the results of this comparison to predict that the party leader with the larger winning margin will become the next Prime Minister.  I term this process ``the Party Leadership Model.''  The model correctly forecasts 8 out of 10 past elections, while making these forecasts four years in advance on average.  According to a Bayesian analysis, there is a 95 percent probability that having the larger winning margin in party leadership elections increases the chances of winning the General Election.  Because David Cameron performed better am
Bayesian Inference; Citizen Forecasting; Election Forecasting; British General Elections; Party Leadership Contests; 2x2 Contingency Table