[Footballguys] Update # 164 11-28 Week 12 Rushing Matchups ,
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Hi Folks,

Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com (will be
posted soon) for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start.
I always receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the
cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.   Just
because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't
necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup.   Ahman Green
may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Ricky
Williams or Marshall Faulk, Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up
against.   The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box
when it comes to deciding between players.

Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.
http://www.fflm.com/ for more info.   Fantasy Points Allowed by position
numbers are from ESPN.com.
Let's get to it.

Joe

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Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


Baltimore's Moe Williams vs Indianapolis Defense

With Jason Brookins' unfortunate injury, Moe Williams is handed the chance
of a lifetime.   A month ago, he was stuck behind Terry Allen and Brookins.
Now, he's likely the guy who'll be asked to carry the rushing load for the
defending World Champs.   I'd expect you'll see FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo to
play a larger role.   Williams had already started becoming a much bigger
part of the passing game catching 4 passes for 47 yards last week.   He also
had 9 carries for 31 yards (3.4 ypc)   I think he'll do fine.   The Colts
are reeling.   Their defense ranks # 26 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last 4 weeks and for the year, they rank # 28 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   You saw how Garrison Heart ran wild on them last week.


Green Bay's Ahman Green vs Jacksonville Defense

Start Ahman Green.   He rolled for 102 yards on 22 carries last week and
looks as solid as ever.   Jacksoville is ranked # 21 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks as if you needed another reason to
start him...


New Orleans' Ricky Williams vs Carolina Defense

Ricky Williams struggled a bit last week but still finished with 56 yards on
15 carries (3.7 ypc) and a TD.   He also added 39 yards on 3 receptions.
He's simply too good to sit.   The Panthers rank # 30 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.   Start Williams.


Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Minnesota Defense

Bettis faced a tough Titan team last week and still rumbled for 73 yards on
21 carries (3.5 ypc)   Kordell Stewart is somewhat of a worry vulturing TDs
but Bettis will get his share.   The Steelers losing OL Marvel Smith for any
amount of time with a knee injury could be a problem.   On the plus side,
the Steelers are for real and they know Bettis is their key.   This week,
they'll face a much softer Viking Defense that ranks # 29 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 30 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Seattle Defense

LaDainian Tomlinson was the intended target of an amazing 13 passes last
week.   Even more impressive is that he caught all 13 passes and netted 72
yards receiving.   Paired with 75 yards rushing on 21 carries (3.6  ypc), he
had a very quiet 147 yards of offense.   On the downside, he did fumble and
he failed to get into the endzone.   His involvement in the offense though
is great to see.   He'll face a Seattle defense this week ranked # 28 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 17 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   They'll also be without suspended CB Shawn Springs.
The Seahawks yielded 181 yards rushing last week against Kansas City.

San Francisco's Garrison Hearst vs Buffalo Defense

Garrison Hearst literally seemed to have turned back the clock last week.
Sunday was the first time I've been able to say "that truly looks like the
old Hearst".   His burst and his cutbacks were exceptional.   Throw in the
fact that Kevan Barlow injured his shoulder and I'm liking him even more.
Keep an eye on Terry Jackson and Fred Beasley to see what role the 49ers
give them with Barlow out.   I wouldn't be surprised to see them get some
additional short yardage / goalline chances.   They'll face the Bills
defense that ranks # 22 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4
weeks.   For the year, they rank # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs Atlanta Defense

You can't bench Marshall Faulk.   Especially against Atlanta's defense
ranked # 24 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.
Enough said.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Arizona's Michael Pittman vs Oakland Defense

Michael Pittman clocked in last week with another of his middle of the road
performances.   44 yards on 18 carries (2.4 ypc) but he did get the TD
score.   I wish he'd be more productive in the passing game as QB Jake
Plummer needs another option besides David Boston.   This week, he faces an
Oakland defense ranked a surprising # 31 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last 4 weeks.   I caught some grief last week from people who
disagreed with me suggesting Tiki Barber could have a good game against
Oakland.   We know how that turned out.   The Raiders are a very good /
great team.   But people run the ball on them.   They're a little tougher in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs where they rank # 20.


Carolina's Richard Huntley vs New Orleans Defense

Richard Huntley came up small again last week with several stuffs at the
goalline.   He had 19 carries for 55 yards (2.9 ypc) in an ugly game.
Huntley's saving grace may be that Brad Hoover or any of the other Panther
RBs aren't any better.   This week, he'll face a Saints defense that is
pretty soft lately ranked # 27 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 21 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.   Still, it's hard to get too excited about a Panther at this point.


Chicago's Anthony Thomas / James Allen vs Detroit Defense

James Allen got the start for the ailing Anthony Thomas and delivered.
Allen rambled for 107 yards on 27 carries (4.0 ypc)   It may have been the
fast track in Minnesota, but Allen looked much quicker than I ever remember
seeing him.   This creates a huge headache for Allen / Thomas owners.
Coach Dick Jauron would never say it, but the Bears obviously have a great
chance to go deep into the playoffs.   They know they need a healthy Anthony
Thomas.   I would think you'd see Jauron very cautious about using Thomas
against a weak Detroit team.   Yes, anything can happen (just ask the
Packers) but I would think you'll see the Bears lean on Allen one more week.
This is pure speculation on my part as it's still very early in the week.
Stay tuned.   Detroit ranks # 18 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last four weeks and # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


New England's Antowain Smith vs New York Jets Defense

Antowain Smith continues to amaze.   He rolled up 111 yards on 24 carries
(4.6 ypc) last week with a TD.   His longest run was 15 yards so it's not
like he padded those numbers with one huge play.   The Jets rank # 11 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks as they've improved
greatly from early on.   They rank # 23 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Oakland's Charlie Garner / Zack Crockett vs Arizona Defense

Garner looked like his typical self Sunday slashing for 68 yards on 14
carries (4.9 ypc)   He also caught 3 passes for 38 yards including a TD.
His trouble is that he often has to watch Zack Crockett score the short TD
from the sidelines.   Hard to believe Coach Jon Gruden could be that
insensitive to you Garner owners but that's how it is.   The Cardinals rank
# 17 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks but for the
year rank # 25 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Garner is too explosive
to sit for most teams.


Tennessee's Eddie George vs Cleveland Defense

For some reason, the Titans feel the need to throw on every down.   Eddie
George only had 15 carries last week.   He did gain 58 yards (3.9 ypc) but
he needs more work.   The Browns are rejuvenated but they've been run on
lately as they rank # 25 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4
weeks.   For the year, they rank # 18 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Washington's Stephen Davis vs Dallas Defense

Davis left the game last week with back spasms long enough for Ki-Jana
Carter to steal what should have been Davis' TD.   Ouch.   He'd been on fire
before leaving.   Davis returned to the game and looks to be ok for this
week.   Dallas has been sliding down the defense ranking and now comes in at
# 20 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the
year, they still rank # 10 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


Buffalo's Travis Henry vs San Francisco Defense

Just when we were ready to write Travis Henry off, he produces like we'd
been expecting him to do all along.   Against a very good Miami Defense,
Henry rolled for 97 yards on 19 carries (5.1 ypc) and a TD.   New QB Alex
Van Pelt is clearly softening the defense as they now must respect the
passing game.   San Francisco is nothing special on defense ranking # 19 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year,
they're # 22 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   They allowed 127 yards to
the Colts last week.


Kansas City's Priest Holmes / Tony Richardson vs Philadelphia Defense

Both Holmes and Richardson are valuable Fantasy players.   Richardson is a
real live featured RB with 120 yards on 20 carries (6.0 ypc)   He threw in
another 70 yards on 3 receptions to boot.   Richardson doesn't get the
yardage but he has a nose for endzone.   He rushed 9 times for 18 yards (2.0
ypc) Sunday and scored again.   The Eagle defense looked very vulnerable
against the Redskin rushing game last week.   They rank # 13 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 14 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.


New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs New England Defense

Curtis Martin's ready to roll after a bye week as the Jets face an
unexpectedly tough matchup with New England.   The Patriots rank # 16 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 19 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.


Philadelphia's Duce Staley vs Kansas City Defense

Staley seems to be running hard but his Eagles are in a funk.   He rushed 15
times for 50 yards (3.3 ypc) and caught 7 passes for 40 yards Sunday.   This
Eagle team is sliding while Kansas City is getting stronger.   The Chiefs
rank # 15 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the
year though, they rank # 31 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so you have to
think Staley might be able to do something.


Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs San Diego Defense

Shaun Alexander had us worried last week as he struggled on the ground with
43 yards on 13 carries (3.3 ypc)   He made up for it on the receptions where
he caught 6 balls for 62 yards and a score.   He's looking more like Ricky
Watters Plus with each game.   The Chargers rank # 23 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank a very
solid # 6 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Last week, they did a good job
against Arizona holding them to 71 rushing yards.


Tampa Bay's Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs Cincinnati Defense

Both of these guys turned in nice days against St. Louis Monday.   Dunn
rushed 14 times for 60 yards (4.3 ypc) and a score.   Alstott carried the
ball 11 times for 34 yards (3.4 ypc) and 2 scores.   Both were factors in
the passing game as well.   I'd look for something similar against the
Bengals this week.   Cincinnati is falling back to reality and rank # 14 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they
rank # 12 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Alstott is obviously more
attractive in TD only leagues, but I can see going with either of these
players here.


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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


Atlanta's Maurice Smith / Bob Christian vs St. Louis Defense

Maurice Smith injured his ankle last week and turned the reins over to Bob
Christian.   And Christian responded in a huge way.   Dan Reeves is winning
with smoke and mirrors here but I wouldn't be surprised to see Christian
remain a big part of this offense even if Smith can go.   As you saw Monday
night with Mike Alstott, the Rams are certainly vulnerable to a big powerful
RB and Christian fills that bill.   St. Louis ranks # 1 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 9 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.   The Rams are beat up though and Christian might be worth a shot if
you're ready to roll the dice.   Just understand the risk though that he
could go back to his old role if Smith is healthy.


Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Tampa Bay Defense

We've said all along that this could be a very good team if they could just
get adequate play from the QBs.   Evidently, that's too much to ask.   With
the passing game quickly fading, Dillon is having a very tough time finding
any room to run.   Dillon managed 63 yards on 20 carries (3.2 ypc) last week
against a good Cleveland team.   The going won't be any easier this week
against Tampa Bay that ranks # 9 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 13 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.   You never know which Dillon will show and it's tough to figure out
which Buccaneer team will be there.   That makes this a tough call all the
way around.


Cleveland's James Jackson / Ben Gay vs Tennessee Defense

James Jackson tweaked his foot again so watch to see how this shakes out.
Ben Gay did see action Sunday.   Jackson was a non factor with 40 yards on
18 carries (2.2 ypc)   Fortunately for him, Gay was even worse with 16 yards
on 10 carries (1.6 ypc)   This week, they'll both face a tough Titan team
that's ranked # 4 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.
For the season, they're ranked # 16 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Denver's Mike Anderson / Terrell Davis vs Miami Defense

Mike Anderson answered the critics well with a 33 carry day for 118 yards
(3.6 ypc) Sunday.   He also scored a TD.   With Olandis Gary out for the
season, it's now down to Anderson and Terrell Davis.   Watch this one very
closely as Davis is reportedly making good progress and could play this
week.   If he's ready to go, I think you'll see Mike Shanahan give him
plenty of carries.   Some are even saying he might start.   I personally
think it'll be Anderson starting with Davis seeing a fair amount of action.
Keep an eye on this through the week.   Miami ranks # 10 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 7 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs but they were exposed by Buffalo's Travis Henry last week.


Indianapolis' Dominic Rhodes vs Baltimore Defense

I love to see a no name like Dominic Rhodes come in and succeed.   He was
extremely active last week and is doing a great job of filling in for
Edgerrin James.   He rushed 27 times for 104 yards (3.9 ypc) and 2 TDs.   He
also had 6 receptions for 43 yards.   He'll face a tough defense this week
in Baltimore though.   The Ravens rank # 12 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last 4 weeks and # 3 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Even
so, unless you have very solid options, I'd take a hard look at keeping
Rhodes in your lineup.


Jacksonville's Stacey Mack vs Green Bay Defense

Stacey Mack isn't making anyone forget about Fred Taylor but Mack owners had
to like his 2 TDs last week.   He put up 50 yards on 13 carries (3.8 ypc)
Taylor's status is still up in the air so I'd think you'll probably see Mack
again.   The Packers bring a tough defense ranked # 7 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 5 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs so it's going to be rough going for him.   Although it won't be as tough
as it was last week against the Ravens.   On a side note, I keep hearing
whispers that Taylor could be done for the season.   Nothing official from
the Jaguars though.   You truly never know with Fred Taylor.   I could see
him missing the rest of the games and I could also see him stepping in for
week 16 and lighting up the scoreboard.


Miami's Lamar Smith / Travis Minor vs Denver Defense

Once again, Lamar Smith looked tentative and slow.   He only gained 37 yards
on 17 carries (2.2 ypc) although he did score.   Travis Minor, on the other
hand, looked explosive and gained 38 yards on 8 carries (4.8 ypc)   The fact
that Miami won the game probably keeps Smith in the #1 slot but you have to
wonder how Minor would do with a bigger role.   Miami's had to shuffle the
Offensive Line due to injuries, something it did not have to do last season.
Denver is ranked # 6 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks
so this won't be a cakewalk.   They rank # 8 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.


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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Dallas' Emmitt Smith / Troy Hambrick vs Washington Defense

It's sad to see but Emmitt Smith is probably not the best RB on the roster
anymore.   Especially not from a Fantasy Football angle.   Troy Hambrick
merely put up 17 yards on 5 carries (3.4 ypc) Sunday but he did score twice.
Smith, on the other hand, managed just 9 yards on 9 carries (you do your own
ypc here...).   Clearly, there are ill feelings between Smith and management
as he's publicly questioning their desire to win as they evaluate talent for
next year.   I'm sure he's a little more sensitive as the primary talent
they seem to be evaluating is the guy who'll take his job.   This week, the
Cowboys face a rejuvenated Redskin team and a tough defense.   They rank # 5
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.


Detroit's James Stewart vs Chicago Defense

James Stewart roared back with a vengeance last Thursday rolling up 102
yards on 14 carries (7.3 ypc)   He looked strong and quick.   Corey
Schlesinger was still in the picture with 5 rushes for 39 yards (7.8 ypc)
and 6 receptions for 41 yards.   Both should have trouble though this week
against an excellent Bears team ranked # 3 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 4 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.


Minnesota's Michael Bennett vs Pittsburgh Defense

Bennett is slowly climbing his way out of the Super Bust spotlight.   (Helps
to have Randy Moss on the field at the same time to deflect some
attention...)   He rushed 12 times for 75 yards (6.2 ypc) and definitely
showed flashes.   He's a threat anytime he touches the ball.   He also
caught a pass.   This week, he faces a very tough defense with Pittsburgh
though.   The Steelers rank # 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last 4 weeks and # 1 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so you have to view
this as a tough matchup.



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That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups.   Passing Matchups to follow.

Joe

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