Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Jun 06, 2001 ,
 Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Wednesday, Jun=
 06, 2001 at 09:36AM EST    Commentary last updated  Wednesday, Jun 06, 200=
1 at 09:47AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote=
    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     =
Today: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta =
Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  +2  ERCOT(SP)  89=
  -1  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  -1  MAIN(CTR)  72  +1  MAPP(HP)  68  =
-2  NPCC(NE)  71  +1  SERC(SE)  85  +1  SPP(SP)  82  NC  WSCC(NW)  69  +1  =
WSCC(RK)  75  -1  WSCC(SW)  85  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [I=
MAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   68 69 66 64 76 81 86 8=
3  Max    74 74 73 69 78 87 88 86  Min     64 65 60 58 70 77 84 78  Range  =
10 9 13 11 8 10 4 8  StD-P  2.6 2.4 4.1 3.5 2.0 3.4 1.4 1.8  Count  9 9 9 9=
 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  For the second year in a row, early season=
 Tropical development takes place in the Gulf of Mexico. We were acutely aw=
are of t-storms yesterday along the Texas and Louisiana coasts and then in =
the afternoon Allison was born. She came ashore last night in SE Texas and =
is located north of Houston. The surface circulation should disappear later=
 today, but the remnants may hang around for quite sometime. Some models su=
ggest this well into next week. Combine this with a front that approaches f=
rom the North and stalls over the region towards the weekend and you have a=
 recipe for very heavy rains. In the extreme, you could see some areas get =
well over a foot of rain the next several days in Louisiana, Mississippi, a=
nd Alabama. The rest of the Gulf Coast into the SE and Tennessee Valley sho=
uld see significant rain as well from these features.  ! The rest of the sh=
ort term forecast appears as advertised earlier in the week. A cold front i=
n the Midwest now gets to the East coast by the weekend. This brings more s=
cattered Showers and T-storms to areas East of the Mississippi. Another dip=
 in the jet stream follows this front for the East this weekend into early =
next week. The trough is not expected to be as strong as the last several s=
o the air will not be as cool. Still, it looks like low AC demand for much =
of the East into early next week and lower than normal demand in the South =
due to the heavy rain threat. The ridge reforms later this week in the Inte=
rior West. Warmer than normal temperatures spread from the Desert SW into t=
he Rockies and Plains. Temperatures should remain moderate from the Pacific=
 NW into the Northern Rockies.    Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  =
7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][I=
MAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAG=
E]   ECAR(CTR)  75  +2  ERCOT(SP)  87  -5  FRCC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  75  =
+7  MAIN(CTR)  74  NC  MAPP(HP)  73  -1  NPCC(NE)  73  +3  SERC(SE)  82  -2=
  SPP(SP)  82  -3  WSCC(NW)  75  +1  WSCC(RK)  78  -1  WSCC(SW)  87  -1    =
  Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  S=
P  SW   Mean   70 73 67 70 78 79 85 85  Max    75 78 74 75 81 85 88 87  Min=
     66 68 60 61 74 75 82 80  Range  9 10 14 13 7 10 6 8  StD-P  2.8 2.8 5.=
2 3.2 2.1 2.7 1.6 1.9  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for=
 Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix  =
  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarg=
e)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  76  NC  ERCOT(SP)  88  -5  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAA=
C(NE)  79  +1  MAIN(CTR)  77  NC  MAPP(HP)  77  +2  NPCC(NE)  72  -1  SERC(=
SE)  83  -1  SPP(SP)  84  -1  WSCC(NW)  75  -2  WSCC(RK)  82  +1  WSCC(SW) =
 87  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW=
  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 76 66 68 81 79 84 85  Max    77 79 75 75 85 84=
 87 87  Min     67 74 62 65 78 76 82 84  Range  10 5 13 11 7 8 5 4  StD-P  =
2.9 1.7 4.8 3.7 1.9 2.7 1.7 1.4  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Fo=
recast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatilit=
y Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image=
 to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  77  +2  ERCOT(SP)  91  -2  FRCC(SE)  8=
8  -1  MAAC(NE)  77  NC  MAIN(CTR)  79  +3  MAPP(HP)  80  +3  NPCC(NE)  73 =
 NC  SERC(SE)  85  -1  SPP(SP)  87  +2  WSCC(NW)  72  -1  WSCC(RK)  85  +2 =
 WSCC(SW)  84  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  =
HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 80 65 67 83 79 86 83  Max    79 83 7=
4 72 86 85 90 85  Min     70 78 61 63 80 76 83 81  Range  9 5 13 10 6 9 7 3=
  StD-P  2.3 2.0 3.9 3.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.4  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: S=
ummary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   =
Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click=
 on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  78  +4  ERCOT(SP)  93  -1  FR=
CC(SE)  89  -1  MAAC(NE)  78  +2  MAIN(CTR)  82  +4  MAPP(HP)  81  +3  NPCC=
(NE)  74  +3  SERC(SE)  87  +1  SPP(SP)  90  +3  WSCC(NW)  67  -1  WSCC(RK)=
  83  +1  WSCC(SW)  83  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   =
Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 78 65 58 78 79 84 78  Max  =
  81 86 75 67 85 87 93 83  Min     63 63 60 48 57 71 69 58  Range  18 23 16=
 19 28 16 24 25  StD-P  3.7 5.9 3.4 5.5 7.1 2.9 5.1 6.6  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6=
 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  There appears to be considerable disagreement=
 in the models today with regards to the longer range. With that in mind, I=
 will leave my predictions from earlier in the week intact until I see evid=
ence from the actual weather that a change is in order. I will leave it to =
others to flip-flop daily depending upon what a particular model does. Most=
 of the modelling shows evidence of troughs near both coasts with a ridge i=
n the middle. The disagreements are on strength and size. The American mode=
ls take on more of a status quo look with the potential for another deep Gr=
eat Lakes/Northeast trough late next week. Granted this has been the patter=
n the last month, but it seems overdone for Mid June. The European and Cana=
dian models meanwhile expand the Continental U.S. Ridge more than I am comf=
ortable with. The European in particular may have some forec! asters scream=
ing heatwave next week. Given the recent heavy rains in most of the Eastern=
 two thirds of the country, this too is overdone. So, a compromise still lo=
oks to be the best solution at this point. Therefore, I see a definite warm=
 up in the five day period, but anything much above normal will have a toug=
h time getting East of the Mississippi.    Day 6: Summary Forecast for Mon,=
 Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IM=
AGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   =
 [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  82  +5  ERCOT(SP)  93  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)=
  81  +5  MAIN(CTR)  83  +3  MAPP(HP)  78  +1  NPCC(NE)  75  +2  SERC(SE)  =
89  +3  SPP(SP)  90  +2  WSCC(NW)  64  -5  WSCC(RK)  77  -1  WSCC(SW)  82  =
-1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK =
 SE  SP  SW   Mean   76 78 67 57 80 82 89 81  Max    81 83 77 64 83 88 93 8=
3  Min     74 72 63 50 77 79 87 80  Range  7 11 14 14 6 9 6 3  StD-P  2.2 4=
.5 4.1 5.6 2.4 2.7 1.7 1.1  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecas=
t for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Mat=
rix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to e=
nlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  82  +2  ERCOT(SP)  93  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  NC=
  MAAC(NE)  83  +2  MAIN(CTR)  80  +1  MAPP(HP)  73  -2  NPCC(NE)  78  +1  =
SERC(SE)  88  +1  SPP(SP)  87  NC  WSCC(NW)  69  -2  WSCC(RK)  72  -4  WSCC=
(SW)  81  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  N=
E  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   76 74 68 61 74 82 89 80  Max    78 84 79 69 =
83 88 92 82  Min     74 65 61 58 66 79 88 80  Range  4 19 19 10 17 9 4 2  S=
tD-P  1.5 6.9 5.2 3.0 6.3 2.6 1.2 0.7  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summ=
ary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Vol=
atility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on=
 image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  79  +4  ERCOT(SP)  92  +4  FRCC(=
SE)  90  +11  MAAC(NE)  82  +8  MAIN(CTR)  76  NC  MAPP(HP)  70  -3  NPCC(N=
E)  78  +9  SERC(SE)  88  +9  SPP(SP)  82  -8  WSCC(NW)  72  +7  WSCC(RK)  =
73  +2  WSCC(SW)  82  +4      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Re=
g  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 70 70 67 74 82 87 80  Max    =
81 78 79 72 78 88 89 82  Min     69 61 64 64 70 80 84 79  Range  12 18 15 8=
 9 8 6 4  StD-P  4.8 7.2 4.8 2.1 3.3 2.3 2.5 0.9  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   =
Day 9: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta =
Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -6  ERCOT(SP)  85=
  NC  FRCC(SE)  79  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  -2  MAIN(CTR)  64  -9  MAPP(HP)  62  =
-6  NPCC(NE)  67  -2  SERC(SE)  79  +1  SPP(SP)  75  -10  WSCC(NW)  74  +6 =
 WSCC(RK)  74  +3  WSCC(SW)  80  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [=
IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 71 70 73 76 80 86 =
81  Max    81 76 72 74 77 82 89 82  Min     64 68 69 71 74 79 83 80  Range =
 16 8 3 3 3 3 6 2  StD-P  7.6 3.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.9 0.7  Count  4 4 4 4 4=
 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 15, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice=
:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMA=
GE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  61  -8  ERC=
OT(SP)  84  NC  FRCC(SE)  78  NC  MAAC(NE)  70  -2  MAIN(CTR)  61  -8  MAPP=
(HP)  62  -5  NPCC(NE)  65  -3  SERC(SE)  77  -1  SPP(SP)  77  NC  WSCC(NW)=
  80  +7  WSCC(RK)  78  +4  WSCC(SW)  80  -2      Range Standard Deviation =
[IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   64 63 67 65 =
67 76 78 70  Max    68 69 69 80 80 77 83 80  Min     61 58 67 49 52 74 73 5=
9  Range  7 11 2 31 29 4 10 21  StD-P  3.2 5.5 0.8 14.8 13.7 1.5 4.7 10.1  =
Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted f=
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