[Footballguys] Update # 154 11-16  Week 10 Rushing Matchups ,
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Hi Folks,

Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com for exactly
where I rank players and to determine who to start.   I always receive
emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but
listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.   Just because one matchup
may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start
the player with the best matchup.   Ahman Green may have a horrible matchup
one week but unless you're sitting on Edgerrin James or Marshall Faulk,
Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up against.   The matchup info is
meant to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between
players.

Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.
http://www.fflm.com/ for more info.   Fantasy Points Allowed by position
numbers are from ESPN.com.   Red Zone and Target numbers are from our
Footballguy Andy Hicks.
Let's get to it.

Joe

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Rushing Game Matchups


Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


Baltimore's Jason Brookins vs Cleveland Defense

With Terry Allen out, Jason Brookins gets the starting nod.   He fared
pretty well against the Titans Monday with 57 yards on 14 carries (4.1 ypc)
The Browns run defense is soft ranking just # 28 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last four weeks.   With QB Elvis Grbac looking a little
shaky in his return, I'd expect you'll see Brookins pound the ball against a
weak run defense.


Green Bay's Ahman Green vs Atlanta Defense

Green rolled for 93 yards on 18 carries (5.2 ypc) last week against a nasty
Chicago run defense.   This week he faces a soft Falcon defense that ranks #
24 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   Start
Green...


New York Giant's Ron Dayne / Tiki Barber vs Minnesota Defense

With their outstanding running game last week, look for the Giants to
continue rolling on the ground.   Both Dayne and Barber had 3 Red Zone
touches last week.   Barber could be more effective in this game as he takes
advantage of the fast track in the Metrodome.   Minnesota is awful defending
the run ranking # 31 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   They rank # 30 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   I'd feel good
starting either one of these guys.


San Francisco's Garrison Hearst / Kevan Barlow vs Carolina Defense

Hearst ran wild last week totaling 145 yards on 17 carries (8.5 ypc)
Coupled with the Jeff Garcie / Terrell Owens tandem, that's a pretty tough
offense.   Things look even better this week against an awful Carolina
defense ranked # 29 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   For the year, they rank # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
Kevan Barlow will stay #2 as long as Hearst continues to put up numbers like
this.   Plus, Barlow is slowed with a quad injury.   Looks like a great
matchup for Hearst.


St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs New England Defense

I'm not going to insult your intelligence.   Start Marshall Faulk.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Arizona's Michael Pittman vs Detroit Defense

Pittman started to get back on track a bit last week with 54 yards on 17
carries (3.2 ypc)   He'll face a soft Lion defense this week that ranks # 27
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year,
they rank # 25 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Pittman should find room
to run if QB Jake Plummer and WR David Boston can soften the defense just a
little.


Chicago's Anthony Thomas vs Tampa Bay Defense

After a strong start last week against the tough Packer Defense, Anthony
Thomas was shut down.   He'll face a Tampa defense this week that's bark is
worse than it's bite.   They talk pretty big but only rank # 20 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 17 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   We'll see what kind of resiliency Thomas has and if
he can get back on track.   Lots will depend on the Bear passing attack and
if Jim Miller can throw downfield enough to loosen the safeties.


Detroit's Rueben Droughns / Corey Schlesinger vs Arizona Defense

It's an interesting matchup here.   James Stewart is out again and the combo
of Droughns and Schlesinger will run the ball.   Droughns totaled just 30
yard on 13 carries last week (2.3 ypc)   Even worse, was Schlesinger who
managed just 13 yards on 7 carries (1.9 ypc)   On the upside, both managed a
TD and both were very active in the Red Zone.   This week, they'll face a
weak Arizona defense that ranks # 25 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over
the last four weeks and # 22 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   If you've
been thinking about starting a Lion RB, now's your chance.


Miami's Lamar Smith / Travis Minor vs New York Jets Defense

Lamar Smith has me worried a bit as he continues to look less than stellar
while Travis Minor slashes up the defense.   Smith had 53 yards on 18
carries (2.9 ypc) Sunday while Minor ripped off 71 yards on just 7 carries
(10.1 ypc)   The good news is that the Jets run defense is still pretty bad.
They've improved recently but still rank # 23 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank # 26 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   If you've been starting Smith, I'd stick with him
for at least this game.   He did have 2 red zone rushes last week while
Minor had none.   If you're in the gambling mood, I might roll the dice with
Minor.


New Orleans' Ricky Williams vs Indianapolis Defense

Williams rolled up a monster yardage day against the 49ers last week with
121 yards on 24 carries (5.0 ypc) and added 52 yards receiving to it.   And
it should have been better as he dropped a sure TD in the endzone that hit
him right in the hands.   Needless to say, he's rolling.   He'll be facing a
very average Indy defense that ranks # 14 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.   Although the Colts will be without their best
defensive player, OLB Mike Peterson.   The Saints also hope to have All Pro
Offensive Lineman Willie Roaf back in action which will make the running
game even more formidable.


Oakland's Charlie Garner / Zack Crockett vs San Diego Defense

Charlie Garner continues to run the ball between the 20's while Zack
Crockett gets the scores.   Garner had 57 yards on 13 carries (4.4 ypc) last
week but Crockett was the one with 2 TDs.   I don't see that changing much.
Especially with Tyrone Wheatley due back any time.   The Charger defense is
average ranking # 21 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.


San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Oakland Defense

Look for Tomlinson to try and pull a Shaun Alexander who ran wild over the
Oakland defense last week.   I'm guessing you'll see the Raiders stiffen a
bit.   Tomlinson ran well last week but simply didn't get enough carries (14
carries for 75 yards - 5.4 ypc)   Doug Flutie is starting to look very
vulnerable and the Chargers need to get back to Tomlinson and the ground
game.   With the awful performance last week, the Raider defense falls from
# 11 to # 30 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
It'll be interesting to see how they respond.


Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs Buffalo Defense

Alexander tallied 266 rushing yards and 3 TDs against a good Oakland defense
last week.   You have to start Alexander against the Bills that rank # 19 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.


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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


Buffalo's Travis Henry vs Seattle Defense

Travis Henry's running hard, he just isn't being given a lot of
opportunities in this offense.   He totaled 51 yards on 16 carries (3.2 ypc)
last week.   I'm not sure any RB would do a lot behind that Offensive Line
though.   He faces a Seattle defense that ranks # 22 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 11 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs so they're pretty tough.   The Linebacking Corps with
Levon Kirkland could cause some trouble.   Although new QB Alex Van Pelt
could give the team a spark.


Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Tennessee Defense

Dillon should move back to the focus of this offense as the Bengals realize
Jon Kitna isn't a guy that should try to carry this team.   The trouble will
be that Tennessee defends the run very well ranking # 4 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They've come on lately as for
the year, they rank # 21 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Like the
Bengals, Tennesse's Defensive Ends are undersized and that could be trouble
for a power running RB like Dillon.


Philadelphia's Duce Staley / Correll Buckhalter vs Dallas Defense

Looks to me like Duce Staley is back after a great day totaling 146 yards on
17 carries (8.6 ypc) with a TD.   Correll Buckhalter was active too with 66
yards on 11 carries (6.6 ypc) and a TD.   Part of that was the Viking
Defense but you have to give credit to the Eagles.   This week, they'll face
a Dallas team that's ranked # 11 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last four weeks.   I like their chances to keep it rolling.   I like
Buckhalter but I think you'll continue to see Staley garner more and more
time.


Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Jacksonville Defense

Jacksonville is decent against the run ranking # 12 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last four weeks but Jerome Bettis is pretty much a must
start.   He's rolling and this offense is heavily dependent on him to carry
the load.   QB Kordell Stewart and WR Hines Ward have improved enough to
keep the Defense at least somewhat honest and Bettis does the rest.


Tennessee's Eddie George vs Cincinnati Defense

Even with Coach Jeff Fisher letting QB Steve McNair run the ball at the end
of last week's wild Monday Night game, it's clear that Eddie George is
getting stronger.   It's also clear that Cincinnati is getting weaker on
defense.   Last week, they ranked # 9, this week they're down to # 18 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   The Bengals are
undersized on the Defensive Line, especially at Defensive End and this could
be a nice matchup for the powerful George.


Washington's Stephen Davis vs Denver Defense

Davis is finally starting to pay some dividends for his patient owners
rushing for 142 yards on 32 carries (4.4 ypc) in his last game.   He's
rested after a bye and should be able to keep the roll going against a
Denver Defense that ranks # 13 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last four weeks.   Last week, the Broncos yielded 75 yards to LaDainian
Tomlinson on just 14 carries (5.4 ypc)   The improvement of Stephen Davis
can be tied directly to the better play of QB Tony Banks and his WRs.
Teams can't stack the line now as they have to respect the deep ball.


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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


Atlanta's Maurice Smith vs Green Bay Defense

Maurice Smith rolled for 148 yards on 27 carries last week against a Cowboy
defense that doesn't allow much on the ground.   He'll face a tougher
defense in Green Bay this week that's ranked # 8 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last four weeks.   Although if you watched the Chicago -
Green Bay game last week, you saw Anthony Thomas have great success early in
the game running right at the Packer defense.   The Falcons are feeling more
comfortable with Smith and I'd look for them to do the same thing.   Not a
great matchup here but one I'd not be particularly afraid of if I'm a Smith
owner.


Dallas' Troy Hambrick / Emmitt Smith vs Philadelphia Defense

Hambrick's coming off a great week where he rushed for 127 yards on 20
carries (6.3 ypc) against a suspect Falcon Defense.   He'll face a pretty
good Eagle team ranked # 9 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last
four weeks.   Emmitt Smith practiced late this week and could play but with
Hambrick playing well, I doubt you'll see him rushed back.   Keep an eye on
Hambrick - although he's expected to play, he's nursing a pretty serious
shoulder injury himself.


Denver's Mike Anderson / Olandis Gary vs Washington Defense

As the Terrell Davis Saga takes another turn (downward), the Broncos turn
once again to Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary.   They'll be ready.   The
trouble I think is that the WR corps are limping (Rod Smith) and goofy
(Eddie Kennison)   Kennison is gone and Smith's ankle looks like something
that'll hopefully allow him to play but you don't know how much he'll be
limited.   Smith has been their offensive focus and if he can't go, the
running game will be affected.   To make it worse, Washington has been
surprisingly tough against the run lately ranking # 3 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   Primarily because they rank #
31 in Passing Yards Allowed over that same span but that doesn't really
matter.   Teams clearly feel they can throw against Washington.   Although
with Smith less than 100%, this might not be the case for Denver.   All in
all, not a great matchup.   ESPNews was reporting Thursday night that
Olandis Gary could possibly get the start.   Welcome to Shannyland...   See
how this shakes out as right now, it's looking very murky.


Indianapolis Dominic Rhodes vs New Orleans Defense

Dominic Rhodes had a nice game in week 8 where he rushed for 100 yards on 34
carries (2.9 ypc)   He found the going tougher last week with just 42 yards
on 14 carries (3.0 ypc)   Plus he injured his shoulder.   The yards per
carry numbers are disturbing.   On the plus side, Edgerrin James is out for
at least a while and maybe the season so Rhodes is the man.   New Orleans
plays a decent run defense ranking # 17 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.   They rank # 12 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
QB Peyton Manning has a broken jaw but says he'll play.   NOTE:   ESPN is
reporting now that the 2nd opinion on Edgerrin James' knee was no better
than the first and that he looks to definitely be done for the year.


New England's Antowain Smith vs St. Louis Defense

Antowain Smith had to enjoy his game last week against his old team where he
rushed for 100 yards on 20 carries (5.0 ypc) and 2 TDs.   I doubt he'll have
the same success against the Rams who rank # 5 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last four weeks.


New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs Miami Defense

It's still all about Curtis Martin in this new West Coast offense which
looks a lot like the old Curtis Martin Offense.   Martin's coming off a
monster day where he rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries (5.7 ypc) and 3 TDs.
He'll face a solid Defense this week in Miami.   They rank # 6 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 8 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   Martin is one of the few RBs to have a lot of success
against Miami.   Look for the Jets to ask him to do it again this week.


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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Carolina's Richard Huntley / Nick Goings vs San Francisco Defense

This is U-G-L-Y   Goings was the leading rusher last week with 13 yards on 9
carries (1.4 ypc)   Huntley's done very little with his golden opportunity
to start (7 yards on 6 carries last week)   I'd avoid all Panthers here.


Cleveland's James Jackson vs Baltimore Defense

James Jackson played a gutsy game last week against a tough Pittsburgh
defense gaining 57 yards on 18 carries (3.2 ypc)   It won't get any easier
this week against the Ravens who rank # 7 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks and rank # 1 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
MLB Ray Lewis continues to be a terrific run stopper along with the DTs Tony
Siragusa and Sam Adams.   Back in week 6, Jackson did run for 77 yards and a
TD so it's no sure thing he'll not produce - it's just a tough matchup.


Jacksonville's Stacey Mack / Fred Taylor vs Pittsburgh Defense

The question of the week is whether Taylor can play or not.   He's set to
practice this week but it's still not clear how much (if any) he'll be able
to go.   Watch this one closely.   Obviously, his chances are much better
than Mack's although Mack has shown a nose for the endzone and finally seems
to be earning some points with Coach Coughlin.   Whoever runs the ball will
have a tough day as Pittsburgh ranks # 1 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.   They rank # 4 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs
for the year.   Unless Taylor looks great late this week and you're out of
other options, I'd look elsewhere.


Minnesota's Doug Chapman / Michael Bennett vs New York Giants Defense

Michael Bennett will likely play although we're hearing Chapman will start.
I'm not excited about either against a tough New York Defense ranked # 10 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 2 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   I'm guessing both will play and neither
will do a lot.


Tampa Bay's Mike Alstott / Warrick Dunn vs Chicago Defense

Good luck figuring this running game out.   In week 8, it was Alstott with
all the Red Zone touches (2 rushes, 1 pass target - 1 TD)  Last week it was
Dunn in the Red Zone (3 rushes, 1 pass target - 1 TD)   Go figure.   This
week, they'll face a tough Chicago defense still smarting from Ahman Green.
The Bears rank # 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks and I don't think I'd want to be catching this week.



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That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups.   Passing Matchups to follow.

Joe

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