Oracle Beats the Tech Trend ,
 ?
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Despite an onslaught of earnings warnings from tech  companies lately, the 
consensus expectation for Oracle (ORCL) is for  at least a penny earnings 
surprise and possibly a two-cent positive  surprise.

Bert Hochfeld at Josephthal & Co., one of the more accurate  analysts 
following Oracle, is one of two analysts that have an official earnings  
estimate of $0.11 per share. Mr. Hochfeld told clients recently that the 
company  would meet his expectations with strong U.S. sales offset by 
disappointing  European sales.?

The consensus among the 28 analysts is for Oracle  to earn $0.10 per share on 
revenue of just under $2.7 billion, yet even the more  conservative analysts 
are optimistic. Gretchen Teagarden at Salomon Smith Barney  is one of the few 
analysts with an estimate below $0.10 per share, but her  revenue estimate is 
slightly above the consensus revenue estimate.

On  Tuesday Chris Shilakes at Merrill Lynch told clients that he is 
projecting  earnings of $0.10 per share on revenue of $2.68 billion. However, 
he added that  revenue might be slightly better than his projections and 
Oracle's continued  improvement with operating margins should lead to 
earnings of $0.11 to $0.12 per  share.?

Last week Jim Pickrel at Chase H & Q told clients that  he expects the 
company to meet or beat his earnings estimate of $0.10 per share  and revenue 
estimate of $2.6 billion. He stated that Oracle's "pipeline appears  robust" 
and that the company should achieve 52% revenue growth or better in its  
applications business.

The pressing issues regarding Oracle among the  analysts are next quarter and 
the recent management turnover. Mr. Pickrel stated  Oracle's Senior Vice 
President Gary Bloom's departure would not have much of an  impact, but 
turnover in other key management positions is an issue. Yet, the  recent pact 
with CitiGroup (C) adds some  confidence in the current team. Richard Davis 
at Needham & Co. told clients  recently that this quarter would be fine but 
still downgraded Oracle's stock  because of the departure of Bloom and Senior 
Vice President Ray Lane reduces the  company's earnings visibility and may 
encourage others to leave the company as  well.

Mr. Upin said that Oracle could have a tough February quarter and  could see 
its toughest test of its performance in the applications space in the  May 
quarter. Yet, overall the analysts like the stock and believe the recent  
stock price is a buying opportunity.?

As result, the company will  need to at least meet or beat the $0.11 Earnings 
Whisper number and provide the  analysts comfort with the current management 
team and the upcoming quarters. If  this can be accomplished during the 
conference call on Thursday, some analysts  believe the stock could reach $35 
in the very near term. You may listen to  Oracle's conference call at 
http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/broadcast_oracle.htm  beginning at 5:30 PM ET 
on Thursday.

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