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000
WTNT35 KNHC 300245
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON OCT 29 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS ALONG THE COAST
OF EASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR	5 MPH...7 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.	LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...250 TO 400 MILLIMETERS...ARE POSSIBLE...AND
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...13.9 N... 83.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 AM EST...TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART





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