Market Insight: Gradual Uptrend Anticipated ,
 [IMAGE]  Market  Insight for November 19, 2001  From    [IMAGE]    The  Gl=
obal Online Financial Services Firm      Introducing  Goldman Sachs PrimeAc=
cesssm Research  As a TD Waterhouse customer,  you now have online access t=
o Goldman Sachs PrimeAccesssm  Research. Just login at  tdwaterhouse.com , =
click on 'News & Research', and then  on 'Goldman Sachs'.  Gradual  Uptrend=
 Anticipated By Arnie Kaufman, Editor, The Outlook   We see further  but sl=
ower market progress.  Tired  after their recent run, stocks nevertheless a=
re being supported  by signs that the economy is stabilizing, better news f=
rom Afghanistan  and a large pool of cash reserves earning meager returns. =
The  two-steps-forward, one-step-backward recovery since September  21 hasn=
't created the enthusiasm that would necessitate an early,  nasty correctio=
n. Investors, keeping in mind that every rally  of the past 19 months has u=
ltimately failed, are regaining their  confidence only slowly.  Background =
 conditions don't lend themselves to a strong advance in the near  term. Wh=
ile recent data suggest that the recession will be mild  and will end early=
 next year, risks to this forecast are high.  Another terrorist attack coul=
d deepen consumer gloom. The possibility  of the disruption of oil supplies=
 still exists. The fiscal stimulus  package continues to be bogged down in =
partisan bickering.   Treasury  bond yields, moreover, have turned sharply =
higher, spurred by  the less dire economic reports and by chart breakouts. =
Yields  have quickly retraced the September-October decline.  S&P  technica=
l analyst Mark Arbeter is impressed by the recent stock  market action and =
anticipates higher levels over the intermediate  term, but he believes the =
easiest and quickest gains are behind.  Arbeter sees a likely substantial a=
mount of stock for sale when  Nasdaq (currently at 1898) moves into the 192=
0 to 2300 range and  the S&P 500 (now at 1139) reaches 1170 to 1300. He exp=
ects  it will take time to chew through this supply.  History  also suggest=
s limited near-term upside potential. Three months  after the low points of=
 the nine postwar bear markets, the S&P  500 was up an average of 14.9%. Th=
e index is already up 18% since  the September 21 low. Six months after the=
 nine postwar bear market  lows, however, the "500" showed an average gain =
of 24.4%;  12 months after the lows, the index was ahead 34.5%, on average.=
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