CAEM Predictions 2002 ,
 Center for the Advancement of Energy Markets

Wow!  What a year 2001 has been for the supporters of energy competition.
For every good bit of news (Pat Wood, one of our heroes at CAEM, being
selected to head the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and the
continuing progress that the Canadians - yes, the Canadians - have made
towards energy competition), we have had to bear one disaster and misstep
after another throughout the year.   Let's see, in December 2000, who could
have predicted..

1.  The tragic events of September 11th.
2.  The California implosion.
3.  Pennsylvania marketer retrenchment.
4.  Price volatility and high prices (but it could have been worse if Mother
Nature did not help out).
5.  Bush Energy Plan ignores meaningful restructuring.
6.  Enron collapse.
7.  FERC Blinks on Super RTO.
8.  Texas missteps in pilots for opening the market.
9.  No leadership emerged to meet the crisis in restructuring.

2001 was one heck of a year - but thankfully, probably the nadir of the
movement towards energy competition in North America.  As CAEM looks into
our crystal ball (natural gas fired, of course) for the coming year, we see
a better year.  Below are some of the predictions and responses from the
CAEM staff about what we expect to occur.  The responses below are primarily
concerned with electricity, but to a lesser extent, may be applied to
natural gas as well.

As always, do not bet the house on what we have to say.  We are just a
little think tank, kind of like the little engine that could.  And we can.
And we do.

Happy New Year!

The CAEM Staff

P.S. If you would like to add a prediction or two, please send an e-mail
with your name and contact information to Hope Duncan at hduncan@caem.org
We will post them to our web site - www.caem.org  Please identify which
question below is being addressed by your prediction.
hduncan@caem.org