Impact of OPEC Target Change on Probable Resid Price Range ,
 fyi


---------------------- Forwarded by Rockford Meyer/FGT/Enron on 01/17/2000 
10:49 AM ---------------------------
From: David Rosenberg on 01/17/2000 09:12 AM
To: Rockford Meyer/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Robert Hayes/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Jack 
Boatman/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Rachel Cady/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Sharon 
Farrell/FGT/Enron@ENRON, James Saunders/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Denis 
Tu/FGT/Enron@ENRON, John Keiser/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Robert 
Kilmer/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Mike Bryant/OTS/Enron@ENRON
cc: Rod Hayslett/FGT/Enron@ENRON 

Subject: Impact of OPEC Target Change on Probable Resid Price Range

OPEC, "coaxed" by Saudi Arabia, have announced a revised target of $25/bbl 
for WTI.  The Saudis have even agreed to help out Venezuela financially in 
order to keep them from opening the spigot and dropping the price.

At the low end of the old OPEC target range of $18 to 22/bbl for WTI, Gulf 
Coast 1% S prices in the low two dollars per mmbtu range would have been in 
the range of reasonable probability.  

The resid expectations at the low, target and high end of the WTI range are 
as follows:

    GC 1%S Range, $/mmbtu
         

With the new target, in all likelihood, GC 1% Sulfur would only rarely go 
below $2.50/mmbtu.

    GC 1%S Range, $/mmbtu
stanley.horton@enron.com