Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Nov 23, 2001 ,
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
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ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Friday, Nov 23, 2001 at 08:=
30AM EST    Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50=
,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more i=
nformation please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of '=
Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Friday, November 23, 2001   S=
yncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAG=
E][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR=
) 58 +1 ERCOT(SP) 77 +1 FRCC(SE) 78 -1 MAAC(NE) 57 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 -1 MAPP(=
HP) 48 +1 NPCC(NE) 50 NC SERC(SE) 67 -2 SPP(SP) 66 +3 WSCC(NW) 47 +2 WSCC(R=
K) 40 +1 WSCC(SW) 59 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg =
CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 52 45 48 41 33 67 70 54 Max 57 49 55 47 41 71 =
75 59 Min 50 43 44 38 29 65 63 50 Range 7 6 11 9 12 6 12 9 StD-P 1.8 2.2 3.=
7 2.7 3.5 1.7 3.2 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each=
 Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Tomorrow: Saturday, N=
ovember 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [=
IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge) =
  [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 63 -2 ERCOT(SP) 70 NC FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 59 -3 M=
AIN(CTR) 60 +1 MAPP(HP) 47 NC NPCC(NE) 56 +1 SERC(SE) 70 -1 SPP(SP) 59 NC W=
SCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 +2     Range Standard Deviation [I=
MAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 40 54 38 31 70 63 52 Ma=
x 59 44 60 43 38 72 69 58 Min 53 38 50 35 25 68 55 48 Range 6 6 10 8 13 4 1=
4 10 StD-P 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.4 3.8 1.7 3.7 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Cl=
ick Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   =
Day 3: Sunday, November 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volati=
lity Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on im=
age to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 56 -1 ERCOT(SP) 69 NC FRCC(SE) 80 +1 =
MAAC(NE) 62 NC MAIN(CTR) 50 +1 MAPP(HP) 39 +1 NPCC(NE) 57 -1 SERC(SE) 68 NC=
 SPP(SP) 60 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 40 NC WSCC(SW) 55 -1     Range Stand=
ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 39 56 3=
7 37 67 62 50 Max 48 43 59 43 45 71 69 55 Min 44 36 52 33 33 64 53 48 Range=
 4 7 7 10 12 7 16 7 StD-P 1.2 2.0 1.1 2.3 3.1 2.1 4.7 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10=
 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat=
ility Matrix   Day 4: Monday, November 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta=
 Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE=
]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +1 ERCOT(SP) 72 +1 =
FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 59 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +1 MAPP(HP) 39 +1 NPCC(NE) 54 +2=
 SERC(SE) 68 NC SPP(SP) 59 +1 WSCC(NW) 39 -2 WSCC(RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 54 NC =
    Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW =
Mean 44 36 50 34 24 66 64 46 Max 48 39 55 39 33 70 69 54 Min 42 33 48 30 19=
 64 56 44 Range 6 6 7 9 14 6 13 10 StD-P 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 3.0 1.8 4.3 2.2 Co=
unt 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within th=
e Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice=
:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAG=
E][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +3 ERCOT(SP=
) 68 NC FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 56 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 NC MAPP(HP) 28 -2 NPCC(N=
E) 49 NC SERC(SE) 67 +1 SPP(SP) 48 -2 WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 24 -6 WSCC(SW=
) 53 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK S=
E SP SW Mean 44 22 44 33 18 66 58 45 Max 48 26 51 40 28 69 64 53 Min 41 18 =
40 27 14 64 54 42 Range 7 8 11 13 14 5 10 11 StD-P 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 1.4 =
2.9 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used=
 Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 6: Wednesday, November 28, 2001   Syncr=
asy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][I=
MAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 49=
 +3 ERCOT(SP) 59 -5 FRCC(SE) 78 +1 MAAC(NE) 56 +3 MAIN(CTR) 37 -2 MAPP(HP) =
23 -4 NPCC(NE) 48 +1 SERC(SE) 62 +1 SPP(SP) 42 -6 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 2=
5 -8 WSCC(SW) 56 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT H=
P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 15 51 34 19 65 47 49 Max 37 22 55 42 30 66 55 5=
6 Min 32 10 48 24 15 64 39 43 Range 5 12 7 18 15 2 16 13 StD-P 1.5 3.9 1.6 =
3.6 4.0 0.5 4.1 3.3 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather F=
orecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Thursday, November 29, 2=
001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   E=
CAR(CTR) 39 -4 ERCOT(SP) 61 -4 FRCC(SE) 74 -3 MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 34 -=
5 MAPP(HP) 24 -7 NPCC(NE) 49 +6 SERC(SE) 55 -4 SPP(SP) 48 -4 WSCC(NW) 44 +3=
 WSCC(RK) 38 NC WSCC(SW) 60 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]=
   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 23 52 37 34 60 50 51 Max 31 29 56 44=
 43 63 58 60 Min 24 14 48 29 24 56 44 46 Range 7 15 8 15 19 7 14 14 StD-P 2=
.2 3.7 2.6 4.8 6.3 2.4 4.4 3.3 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Eac=
h Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 8: Friday, Novem=
ber 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAG=
E][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [I=
MAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 63 -1 FRCC(SE) 61 -8 MAAC(NE) 31 -5 MAIN(=
CTR) 32 -4 MAPP(HP) 29 -7 NPCC(NE) 45 +11 SERC(SE) 46 -6 SPP(SP) 58 +4 WSCC=
(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 33 +4 WSCC(SW) 50 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAG=
E] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 31 41 34 32 56 61 50 Max 4=
0 38 44 41 43 65 69 59 Min 26 19 37 30 22 49 50 45 Range 14 19 7 11 21 16 1=
9 14 StD-P 3.9 5.3 1.9 2.5 5.4 5.4 5.0 2.8 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here=
  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: S=
aturday, December  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility M=
atrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to=
 enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 NC ERCOT(SP) 62 -8 FRCC(SE) 67 -1 MAAC(N=
E) 42 +4 MAIN(CTR) 37 -5 MAPP(HP) 26 -3 NPCC(NE) 37 +6 SERC(SE) 55 -2 SPP(S=
P) 49 -11 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSCC(RK) 24 -6 WSCC(SW) 47 +1     Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 26 41 35 25 =
60 59 48 Max 50 30 51 38 27 67 66 49 Min 26 20 36 33 23 52 55 47 Range 24 1=
0 15 5 4 15 11 2 StD-P 5.6 3.1 4.6 1.9 1.3 4.7 2.3 0.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 =
6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matri=
x   Day 10: Sunday, December  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   V=
olatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click =
on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 -14 ERCOT(SP) 57 -8 FRCC(SE) =
69 NC MAAC(NE) 45 -6 MAIN(CTR) 29 -13 MAPP(HP) 26 -2 NPCC(NE) 42 NC SERC(SE=
) 55 -9 SPP(SP) 45 -11 WSCC(NW) 37 +3 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 48 -1     Ran=
ge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30=
 27 43 35 26 59 52 45 Max 34 34 54 37 29 64 54 49 Min 29 16 34 31 21 55 48 =
41 Range 5 18 20 6 8 9 6 8 StD-P 1.5 5.0 5.4 2.0 2.9 2.8 2.4 3.2 Count 6 6 =
6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volati=
lity Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IM=
AGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also b=
e viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote=
.com     [IMAGE]  =09
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