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FORTUCAST PICK OF THE WEEK, 1/18/02
STOCKS AND MARCH S & P: (01/18) Stocks still have not rallied enough to confirm that the current downside correction is over. We may have to wait until Jan. 22-23 for a bottom to finish, and it still could be all the way at 1121 on S & P futures or max. 1112. We expect that once this correction is over, the market should recover into Feb. 8 or so. If the rally is not impulsive enough and remains corrective, we will remain open to a low into Feb. 22. Worst downside is a move back to 9481 on DOW cash, with support at 9642 on DOW cash and 1530 on NASDAQ 100 cash.
LONGER TERM: We are projecting NASDAQ 100 to 2450 and the S & P futures to 1400. This should take until Dec. 2002 to completely manifest, with a secondary high into March 2003. There could be a rocky period into May 2002 but then strong upside into Sept. 2002 and continuing higher into Dec. 2002.
Swing Trade of the Week: Shorting Bonds into Jan. 23-24.
Bonds have confirmed an important retracement high at the 104.11 region. Retracements into Feb. 23-24 should be used to accumulate put post ions and short futures positions, using stops above 104.21. Next swing low should be at least Feb. 11. Downside target forthcoming. Longer term weekly charts project much lower prices into Dec. 2001.
 
--Barry Rosen, 1-18-02 2:45 PM 
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