Fw: I'll keep taking punches until their will grows tired. ,
 ?
----- Original Message -----  
From: john  stamas 
To: john  tumillo 
Sent: Wednesday, December 06, 2000 4:59 PM
Subject: I'll keep taking punches until their will grows  tired.

In 1974 the S&P 500 dropped 27% AFTER the first  rate cut by the fed.? In 
1981 it dropped 15% AFTER the first rate cut by  the fed.? With a S&P 500 
still trading at twice it's growth rate, 20 vs  10, a NASDAQ still trading at 
70 times earings, and a bullish advisor sentiment  still at 55%, the backdrop 
for a sharp rally isn't very good.? In a slowing  earnings enviroment I 
believe investors should focus on two sectors.? The  first are companies like 
Tootsie Roll Industries that manage to grow earnings  like clockwork.? 
Secondly, telecom/tech companies that are trading at their  growth rate and 
there is some assurrance that their customers are in a position  to keep 
ordering and paying for products.? For Tootsie Roll Industries it  is easy 
since the end user is the consumer and this products' consumption is  fairly 
recession proof.?? Efficient Networks' customers are SBC  Communications and 
others who then install their products to offer their  customer price savings 
that justify their capital investment. As long as SBC's  is financially 
strong and their ROI warrants the investment, the Efficient's of  the world 
appear to be interesting ideas.?  


? There will be layoffs not just in the DOT com world, probably everybody  at 
AMAZON, but also certain industries like the Financials and Auto's.?  This 
should remove once and for all any last Greenspan' fears of a wage led  
inflationary revival.? His comments yesterday were an admittance that this  
economy is softer than 14 feet of fresh powder in Montana.? Housing prices  
and financial assets were simply too inflated in general.? That doesn't  mean 
there aren't some good real estate markets and it doesn't mean there aren't  
any fair priced companies.
vbalducci@bigfoot.com, toddez@ngaortho.com, timothy.erday@painewebber.com, 