FW: College Football Best Bets ,
 -----Original Message-----
From: 	"Dr. Bob Sports" <football@drbobsports.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Dr+2E+20Bob+20Sports+22+20+3Cfootball+40drbobsports+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Thursday, September 27, 2001 9:08 AM
To:	Wilson, Derek
Subject:	College Football Best Bets

Dear Member:

I had a rare losing week in College Football, as the Best Bets were just 1-2 (my worst
week in more than 2 years - I haven't been 2 games below .500 any week since 1998). I am
now 6-6 for the season on the College Best Bets, but 3 of the losses have been by less
than 3 points and I expect those close games to even out. I have 4 Best Bets this week,
one 3-Star and three 2-Stars and I also list 4 Strong Opinions below, including the
Thursday Night ESPN game. Remember, I only play the Best Bets, but Strong Opinions have
won more than they have lost over the years. Good Luck this week.

3 Star Selection
MARYLAND (-9.5) 34 West Virginia 13
Ralph Friedgen has turned around the Terps and has them headed for a bowl game after a 3-
0 start. That start is no mirage as Maryland has plenty of talent and has posted solid
wins of 23-7 over a good North Carolina team and 27-20 win on the road against a solid
Wake Forest team last week. Maryland's offense is averaging a robust 256 true rushing
yards per game at 5.4 yards per rushing play (without sacks) and 156 true passing yards
at 5.9 yards per pass play (with sacks included). They will have no trouble today moving
the ball on a West Virginia defense that yields 5.1 yards per rush play and allowed lowly
Kent State to compile 195 true rushing yards at 5.0 yprp on them last week. West Virginia
does defend the pass well and I don't expect much of a contribution from Maryland
quarterback Hill in this game. However, all Hill will have to do is hand the ball off and
Maryland will be able to move down the field. The Terrapins' defense will make it tough
for a sluggish West Virginia offense to keep up. The Mountaineers average just 3.9 yards
per rushing play and a decent 6.2 yards per pass play (4.4 yprp and 5.9 yppp are the
national averages), but they have put up those numbers against teams that combine to
allow an average of 4.9 yprp and 7.8 yppp on defense. In other words, the Mounties have
put up mediocre offensive numbers against teams that have allowed other offenses to move
at will. Maryland's defense has allowed only 3.8 yprp and 4.1 yppp against 3 teams not
known for their offense (NC, E. Mich, and WF), but and average defense would hold those 3
teams an average of about 4.2 yprp and 5.1 yppp. Thus, Maryland's defense has performed
better than average thus far and will have no problem limiting West Virginia's offense in
this game. West Virginia was blown out 10-34 at Boston College and they are just 1-9 ATS
on the road since the last few years. Maryland qualifies in a 103-36-1 ATS statistical
indicator that has been money in the bank for me over the years. This is a solid 3-Star
Best Bet.

2 Star Selection
BOSTON COLLEGE (-24.5) 45 Army 10
Boston College could have beaten Navy by more than the 38-21, but after leading 35-14
after 3 quarters coach Tom O'Brien, a former coach at Navy, may have eased up a bit
rather than embarrass the Middies on their home turf on an emotional day. The Eagles
still ended up tallying 232 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr and 247 pass yards at 9.5 ypp
against a poor Navy defense. Army's defense is also bad and I doubt that they will be
shown much mercy here at Alumni Stadium, where the Eagles have covered the spread 10
consecutive times. The BC offense will have another huge day against an Army defense that
allowed 439 total yards per game last season and is surrendering 466 total yards per game
this year. Boston College averaged 4.8 yards per rush last year and they're rushing for
229 yards per game at an even better 5.3 ypr this season. Superstar back William Green
will have another huge game against a Cadets' defense that has allowed 4.6 ypr last
season and has yielded 4.1 ypr this season to Cincinnati and UAB, teams that combine to
average just 3.5 ypr on offense. Quarterback Brian St. Pierre struggled in the first 2
games of the season against the good pass defenses of West Virginia and Stanford, but he
blossomed last week against a soft Navy defense (19 or 25 for 247 yards) and will have
comparable success this week against an Army secondary that allowed 7.8 yards per pass
last year and has allowed 74% completions for 8.0 ypp this season. The Army offense is
better this season, but Boston College has a solid defensive unit that has allowed an
average of just 4.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that has averaged 5.1
yards per play on offense. Army has averaged just 300 total yards in their 2 games while
tossing 5 interceptions. Boston College gave up a few big pass plays to Navy, but they
allowed just 6.4 yards per pass last season and should be just as good this year. Army
lost 3-55 at UAB last week and this should be another beating. My ratings math system
predicts a 45-10 win for Boston College in this game and they have shown that they do not
let up at home. BC is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of more than 14 points in
coach O'Brien's first 4 years, winning those games by an average score of 43-9 while
laying an average of 22 points. In addition to Boston College's strong history at home
and my math system also favoring them, the Cadets qualify in a negative 5-33 ATS early
season big road underdog situation. Army lost 17-55 at home to BC last year and I'll take
the Eagles to administer another whipping to the Cadets today.<p>
<b>Pass if Boston College is favored by more than 28 points</b>.

2 Star Selection
LSU (+10) 17   TENNESSEE 20
In what should be a defensive battle, I will gladly take the generous points with a well-
balanced LSU squad that runs and throws well on offense while defending the run and pass
well on defense. Tennessee does all of those things well also, but the Tigers qualify in
a 30-8 ATS early season indicator if they are getting 10 points or more. Aside from the
angle that applies to LSU, the Tigers also can match up with Tennessee. LSU is led on
offense by mistake-free quarterback Rohan Davey, who has averaged 9.0 yards per pass with
just 1 interception in 137 passes since the beginning of last season and guided the
Tigers to upsets of Tennessee and Georgia Tech last season. I rate the Tigers as just an
average rushing team, but they are good enough to keep the Vols' defense honest.
Tennessee's defense is very good in all areas and they had no trouble shutting down the
mediocre Syracuse offense and a bad Arkansas attack unit. LSU racked up 460 total yards
and scored 38 points against the Vols last year even though Davey was hobbled for most of
the second half (they scored 24 points in the first half). I expect LSU to once again be
able to move the ball on Tennessee well enough to stay within the big number. Tennessee's
offense is good both running and throwing, but have averaged just 4.0 ypr and 6.2 ypp in
their first two games against the tough stop units of Syracuse and Arkansas. Tennessee
will struggle even more offensively in this game against an LSU defense that has allowed
just 2.8 ypr and 5.8 ypp against two decent offensive teams (Tulane and Utah State) with
much of the damage in those games coming in garbage time after the Tigers had built huge
leads. Tennesee has been good at home in recent years (10-4 ATS since '99), but LSU coach
Nick Saban is 9-4 ATS as an underdog going back to his days at Michigan State and my
ratings favor the Volunteers by only 4 points in this game. LSU also qualifies in a 97-39-
3 ATS road underdog situation and a 30-8 ATS early season indicator if they remain and
underdog of 10 points or more. I'll take the points with an LSU squad that is very good
on both sides of the ball.

2 Star Selection
TCU (-6.5) 24 HOUSTON 10
The Horned Frogs have been great defensively again this year, but have really struggled
on offense with an inexperience offensive line and without LaDainian Tomlinson. TCU is
averaging only 3.1 yards per rushing play this season, a far cry from the 5.4 yprp that
they averaged last year. I expect the Frogs to have some success running the ball in this
game against a Houston defense that has allowed 5.3 yprp against Rice and Texas. Rice and
Texas are pretty decent running teams, but Houston has allowed more to those teams than
an average defense would and I rate the Cougars as below average in that area. Houston is
about average defending the pass, but TCU quarterback Casey Printers is a better than
average passer and should put up pretty good numbers in this game. While TCU's offense
should perk up a bit against a soft Houston defense, the Horned Frogs' defense will put
the clamps on the Cougars offense. Houston gained just 199 total yards at home against
Rice, but somehow managed to collect 432 yards on the road against a very good Texas
defense. Overall, I rate the Houston rush attack as non-existent and the pass attack
better than average with Kelly Robertson blossoming last week with a very good effort
(although he was horrible against Rice). TCU has allowed just 3.8 yards per rushing play
and 4.5 yards per pass play this season and were very impressive in holding Nebraska to
just 21 points in their opener last month. TCU gave up 27 points in their surprising home
loss to Northwestern State last week, but I will consider that an aberration and look for
the Frogs to shut down Houston's attack today by dominating the Cougars' offensive line
and putting pressure on Robertson. TCU has registered 14 sacks in just 110 pass plays in
their 4 games (that's 13% sacks!) while Houston has allowed 9 sacks in 2 games at a rate
of 10% of their pass plays. The national average is 2 sacks per game, or 6% of all pass
plays, so you can expect a sack on about 17% of Houston's pass plays in this game. With
Robertson not having ample time to find his quality receivers, the Horned Frogs should
come away with a solid victory. My ratings favor TCU to win this game by 6 points, which
is right on the number, but the Horned Frogs qualify in a 145-54 ATS statistical
indicator and a 67-17-2 ATS subset of that angle also applies. That indicator has been
VERY good to me in recent years as it is 53-14 ATS since 1995. I've been on most of those
games as Best Bets and have been sorry when I wasn't. So, I'll take TCU for a 2-Star Best
Bet.

Strong Opinion
PITTSBURGH (+27.5) 17  Miami Fla 38
Miami looks like a deserved #1 team right now with an easy 33-7 win at Penn State and a
61-0 roasting of Rutgers 3 weeks ago. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, inexplicably lost 26-35 at
home to South Florida as a 23 point favorite. I consider that game to be a fluke and
expect the Panthers to as good as the team that won 7 games last season. The Pitt offense
is led by an experienced David Priestly at quarterback, who has averaged over 8 yards per
pass in over 300 passes in his career. Priestly has struggled some this year without
injured All-American receiver Antonio Bryant, who is listed as probable for his return
this game. Pitt doesn't have much of a rush attack this year without graduated star Kevan
Barlow (now with the 49ers), so the Priestly will have to be at his best in this game
against a secondary that is among the nation's best. My ratings project 17 points for
Pitt if Bryant plays and 14 points if he does not. Miami's offense is also one of the
best units in the nation with quarterback Ken Dorsey leading an offense that is averaging
330 pass yards per game at an incredible 12.4 yards per pass and 243 rushing yards per
game at a robust 5.6 yards per rush. Pitt's defense did not play as poorly against South
Florida as it appears. The Panthers did allow 443 total yards in that game but South
Florida ran 97 plays. Pitt allowed 3.1 yards per rush and just 5.3 yards per pass, both
good numbers. With 10 returning starters on that side of the ball, I expect the Panthers
to be better than last year's unit that allowed only 2.6 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per
pass. Last year, Pittsburgh's defense limited Miami to 5.4 yards per play, almost a full
yard per play less than the 6.3 yards per play that the Hurricanes averaged for the
season. A -3 in turnover margin led to a misleading 7-35 loss for Pitt down in Miami and
I expect the Panthers to be just as competitive with Miami this year at home. Pittsburgh
is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog in recent years and their defense is good enough to slow
down Miami's offense a bit while their offense is good enough to score a couple of times,
especially if Bryant is able to contribute. Consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion if
Byrant plays and a lean if he does not.

Strong Opinion
TEXAS A&M (-3) 21 Notre Dame 13
The Irish are now 0-2 with losses to Nebraska and Michigan State and it appears as if
they will go 0-3 after their visit to Kyle Field, where the Aggies are 11-2 ATS the last
3 years and 60% ATS in coach Slocum's 14 years at the helm. Notre Dame is averaging just
3.4 yards per play this season and I rate them as just average both running and passing
after compensating their statistics for the high level of opposition faced. The problem
for them here is that an average offense is not good enough to score many points here in
College Station against an A&M defense that is yielding just 3.8 yards per play this
season after allowing only 4.7 yards per play last year. Texas A&M is good defending the
run (3.3 ypr last year) and is even better against the pass, so I expect the Irish to
struggle once again throwing the football against another good secondary. The Aggies'
offense has been mediocre so far, but quarterback Mark Farris averaged 7.5 yards per pass
last season and will take advantage of a mediocre Notre Dame secondary that allowed 7.7
yards per pass last year and 8.7 ypp in 2 games this season. I don't see the Aggies
running very well, but they will get enough plays through the air to reach the endzone a
few times. Teams that struggle offensively and lose straight up as a favorite at home
have proven to be bad plays on the road the next week, so this is not a great situation
for the Irish to right their ship.

Strong Opinion
TEXAS (-17.5) 35 Texas Tech 13
Texas is playing below last year's high standards despite returning 9 starters on offense
and 8 starters on defense. The Longhorns are averaging just 5.5 yards per play on offense
while allowing 4.8 yards per play and they've done so against a fairly weak schedule.
Last year, by contrast, the Horns averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense and yielded just
4.1 yards per play against a tough schedule. I suspect Texas has been bored by the
opposition they've had to face as they are certainly no worse than they were a year ago.
They should not have a problem getting up for this conference game against an improved
Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders were not a very good offensive team last year in the
first season in coach Mike Leach's Air Raid offense, but quarterback Kingsbury and the
rest of the offense appear to be much more comfortable this season as Tech is averaging a
solid 5.5 yards per play. Texas had the second best pass defense in the nation last year 
(4.1 yards per pass play allowed - including sacks) and they return 3 of 4 starters from
that secondary. The Red Raiders were limited to just 299 yards by Texas last year and I
expect similar results this season. Texas Tech does have a solid defensive unit again
this year and they are particularly tough to throw on. However, Texas will be able to
establish their running game against a soft Red Raiders' defensive front and quarterback
Simms should have plenty of time to throw the football. Simms will need to step up his
play against this Texas Tech defense and I suspect that he will. Texas qualifies in a
solid 167-98-4 ATS early season indicator and they have been able to outscore their
opponents by an average of 30 points per game despite not playing very well. If the Horns
play up to their potential, they will have no problem here and that strong indicator
suggests that they will play better than they have thus far.

Strong Opinion
ARIZONA ST. (-15) 45 San Jose St. 24
The Sun Devils took a beating at Stanford against a very good Cardinal squad, but they
will bounce back here at home against a defenseless Spartans' squad. Arizona State coach
Koettner hails from Boise State, where his Broncos were among the highest scoring teams
in the nation last year (44 points per). Sophomore quarterback Jeff Krohn has picked up
the offense very well and the Sun Devils averaged 8.3 yards per pass play in their first
2 games against two good defensive teams (San Diego State and Stanford). San Jose State
is not a good defensive - they are a bad one - and ASU will have no trouble scoring
points tonight. The Spartans are actually not bad defending the run, as they have allowed
5.1 yards per rushing play to USC and Colorado teams that would rush for that average
against an average defense. San Jose, however, can not stop the pass as they have
surrendered 8.2 yards per pass play this season against USC and Colorado, teams that I
project at a combined 6.9 yards per pass play on offense against an average defense. With
ASU averaging 8.3 yppp against two good defensive teams, you can imagine how easy it will
be for them to throw against the Spartans tonight and the Sun Devils are also a decent
running team. San Jose State does have a good offense that averaged 5.8 yards per rushing
play and 6.0 yards per pass play last season and returns 9 starters to that unit. The
Spartans attack has been slowed by two very good defensive teams in USC and Colorado, but
they should be able to run the ball against a Sun Devils defense that allowed 5.1 yprp
last year and 5.2 yprp this season. Arizona State does have an excellent secondary, so I
don't expect Marcus Arroyo to have too much of a positive impact today. ASU coach
Koettner loves to entertain the home fans and his teams have covered the spread 13
consecutive times at home (12 straight at Boise and a 38-7 win over San Diego State). In
Koettner's last 6 games as a home favorite, his teams have won by an average score of 54-
28 while being favored by an average of 11 ? points. Koettner is also 9-2 ATS in games
following a loss the last 4 years and will be looking for a big win to atone for last
week's 28-51 loss at Stanford. He will get it.



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