Re: contangos vs winter putspds ,
 theres only one thing i can think of...   storage field turning around gives 
cash market completely different feel.   instead of utilities looking to sell 
gas everday, they look to buy it.  huge difference in feel of mrket.  not so 
much actual gas but completely different economics of how marginal mmbtu gets 
priced.  tightening cash market causes cash players to buy futures... hence 
the tendency for a spring rally every year.  read heffner today...even he 
talks about it




slafontaine@globalp.com on 03/06/2001 10:22:18 AM
To: John.Arnold@enron.com
cc:  
Subject: Re: contangos vs winter putspds



so let me ask you-if they dont buy flat px wfrom here with mega cold east
weather, cash contangos,px only 25 cts from lows, after huge apr/oct 
buying-what
would take us to much higher levels?? ie whats the risk of being short today?
clueless and confused





John.Arnold@enron.com on 03/06/2001 10:51:13 AM

To:   Steve LaFontaine/GlobalCo@GlobalCo
cc:
Fax to:
Subject:  Re: contangos vs winter putspds





no real bias today  positive numbers sell negative numbers buy...
looking into other stuff




slafontaine@globalp.com on 03/06/2001 09:15:40 AM

To:   John.Arnold@enron.com
cc:
Subject:  Re: contangos vs winter putspds



agreewith all, im mega bear summer 2nd q but for the time being weather and
as u
said uncertainy likely to lend itself so little downside until either
weather
gets warm or injections get big. i dont see the flow as you know but i talk
to a
cupla utitlities and the bias same as you menioned. ive neutralized bear
book a
bit cuz i cant afford to fite this thing. with deep pockets tho-i scale up
sell
next 2-3 weeks take a bet on 200 ish injections in april and 400 in may-ie
records
  aug/oct-yes-low risk-wasnt substantially more inverted when we were 4
bucks
higher-low risk but not a great reward. oct/nov-yea-wont make much for
another
few months on that so it range trades but ill cont to bersd it cuz if end
summer
that strong im always always more bullish the front of winter.
  other thing i wonder is how wide these summer contangos cud get-as
everyone so
bullish futs for the next few weeks at least.
   weather here sucks to day-tree almost fell on me driving into work-close
one,sahud be about 2 ft of white stuff when its said and done. dunno how
long i
can stay but doesnt look all that great for me getting out to steamboat
manana!!

heres a hypothetical.... we agree that demand loss y on y somwhere from 4.5
to
5.0 today, do you guys think that we can see a substantial demand recovery
if
prices dont retreat? my ffeeling is no for at least another 90 days or
more.thots?
   any thots on flat px today-im slitely long vs bearsds?
slafontaine@globalp.com