What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years? [pdf]
I desperately want to get to a point where I'm able to quickly sketch out a statistical model for making a decision, but I'm struggling mightily on where to get started that doesn't include some kind of "hide the uncertainty" shell game, such as how I feel when Bayesianism gets thrown around.<p>Submissions like this give me hope, that if I just read more, I'll get there, but nothing listed here feels like it's usable in a "napkin math" scenario.  I just bought two of Gerd Gigerenzer's latest books, and I've already obtained some of David Sklansky's more introductory work on gambling, but I'm concerned my focus is either too theoretical or too narrowly on gambling (though I think there's a lot to learn in how a gambler assesses a bet, and how it applies to other situations).<p>I guess if it were easy, we'd all be doing it...