Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v1" rel="nofollow">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v...</a><p>> Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel.<p>8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for.<p>Given how weird some of the internet surveys have been in the past year, I don't take singular polls all that seriously. These polls seem to end up extremely skewed toward subjects who overestimate small probabilities.<p>For a reality check, consider that 1/8th of respondents said they would be willing to commit political violence themselves and 7.1% of respondents said they'd be willing to kill someone over politics.<p>> 12.2% were willing to commit political violence themselves ″to threaten or intimidate a person,″ 10.4% ″to injure a person,″ and 7.1% ″to kill a person.″<p>And to cap it off, 4% of respondents were pretty sure they were going to kill someone soon:<p>>  and 4.0% thought it at least somewhat likely that ″I will shoot someone with a gun.″<p>Yeah, I don't think so. This feels like a survey of people who consume too much news and social media and have become increasingly disconnected from the reality on the ground.