Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]
Building on my analysis from last week:<p>1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce.<p>2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks.<p>3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental jobless claims = ~6%). That number is likely low and continuing to increase, as new jobless claims do not account for gig workers and many state unemployment sites have been inundated by these claims resulting in site crashes and people unable to file claims. In addition, layoffs have almost certainly continued between 3/28 and today.<p>4. The consensus estimate for this week's jobless claims was ~3.76M jobless claims, and the 6.6M actual claims blow the consensus estimate out of the water. That said, some analysts such as Goldman Sachs had estimated ~5.5M joblesss claims. Goldman Sachs estimates that unemployment will peak at ~15%. [2]<p>[1] <a href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" rel="nofollow">https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000</a><p>[2] <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-update-goldman-sees-15percent-jobless-rate-followed-by-record-rebound.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-update-goldman-s...</a>