Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
>An event for which the timing is unpredictable may "at this time" have only a 5-percent probability of occurring during the coming month, but a 60-percent probability if the time frame is extended to one year (5 percent per month for 12 months).<p>If the time frame were extended to two years, would the probability be 120%?<p>The correct probability is:<p>1 - (1-.05)^12 ~= 0.46<p>Hard to credit a text about cognitive biases that makes elementary mistakes in probability.