Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned"<p>Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high.  We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate).  Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size.  Lumber kept going up... and up... Then... no parts were available (IIRC certain trusses were unavailable for months, that's just one that stuck out).<p>We regrouped a bit later.  House was now going to be min $620k, but... no guarantee it would be $650k or $700k.  Builder has been working on spec homes in the $700k-$900k range last few months, whereas exact same size houses 1 block away they were building and selling in the mid-$400s 14 months ago.<p>Before we cancelled the project, we asked why we couldn't build something smaller and target a time in a few months, as lumber was coming way down to where it was 18 months ago.  "Everything else has skyrocketed..."  which... I know things have gone up some in the last 18 months, but I think there's simply some "get high prices while you can".<p>When talking to some home finance folks, they're all saying "watch out for HELOCs in 18-24 months - people will be clamoring for HELOCs as they won't be able to sell these $700k houses they're buying, because they won't have appreciated at all, and the homeowners will be trapped".<p>There may be 'blowout' prices on lumber itself, but around here I'm not seeing any 'blowout' prices on new construction in the short term.