Forecasting s-curves is hard
Leaving modeling up to the professionals is completely the wrong lesson. Time series forecasting from business, epidemiological or economic data forecasting is hard so you should always take the results with a large grain of salt. The professionals get it wrong too and just like the weather nearby points from the model are more likely to be accurate than distant ones.<p>Smoothing helps. Estimating error helps. Domain knowledge helps. Experience in applying the model helps. There are techniques other than the one demonstrated in the article. Sometimes those help. There are also professionals who create models which are used to support the bias of the modeler or the modelers employer (i.e. cherry picking).<p>Politicians and pundits more often than not take the results of these models and draw conclusions which are unwarranted or at least highly uncertain without mentioning the uncertainty or only giving it lip service.