A group of 3,000 citizens is making better forecasts than CIA analysts
I need to know more. If the questions are all yes/no questions ("Will there be a significant attack on Israeli territory before May 10, 2014?"), and the sample set is large enough, you would -expect- there to be some outliers who mostly got things right, by pure chance. And even outside of that, I want to know what sort of average the CIA agents were batting; if they were hitting just 50%, I would -expect- nearly any sample size to have an outlier who did better.<p>That is, to borrow the old get rich quick scheme, take a list of 1024 addresses. Send to half of them "Stock X will be higher on (date) than today", and to the other half "Stock X will be lower on (date) than today". Repeat with the set you sent the correct 'predictions' to, and continue repeating until you're down to four people who you've sent the correct prediction to every time. Suggest they sign up for your premium stock tips newsletter.<p>All you're doing is playing statistics, you're not actually demonstrating any predictive ability.