Ten predictions (2004)
1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011.
We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though.<p>2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications.
Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable.<p>3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012.
Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore.<p>4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010.
Not in 2010, not even yet, but we are certainly on the road. No surprise considering how shit Java is.<p>5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010.
This failed hard.<p>6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent.
This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning.<p>7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out.
Happened sooner.<p>8. Someday I will voluntarily pay Google for one of their services.
You don't say? They are one of the biggest players out there, even if they are not primarily known for payware but still.<p>9. Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010.
No way, thanks God.<p>10. In five years' time, most programmers will still be average.
This makes no sense, but anyway, we are getting better. Slowly though, version control, more languages, testing is infiltrating even some dumber dev companies too.<p>--<p>I give this guy a mental thumbs up for points 1 and 4, and the cynicism in point 10.