Nvidia’s AI supremacy is only temporary
If anything, this post suggests Nvidia has a long supremacy ahead. In particular, the author lays out what is likely to be a durable network in favor of Nvidia:<p>- best in breed software<p>- industry standard used and preferred by most practitioners<p>- better (faster) hardware<p>Notably, this is a similar combination to that which led Wintel to be a durable duopoly for decades, with the only likely end the mass migration to other modes of compute.<p>Regarding the "what will change" category, 2 of the bullet points essentially argue that the personnel he cites as being part of the lock-in will decide to no longer bias for Nvidia, primarily for cost reasons. A third point similarly leans on cost reasons.<p>Nowhere in the analysis does the author account for the historical fact that typically the market leader is best positioned to also be the low-cost leader if strategically desired. It is unlikely that a public company like Intel or AMD or (soon) Arm would enter the market explicitly to race to zero margins. (See also: the smartphone market.)<p>Nvidia also could follow the old Intel strategy and sell its high-end tech for training and its older (previously) high-end tech for inference, allowing customers to use a unified stack across training & inference at different price points. Training customers pay for R&D & profit margin; lower-price inference customers provide a strategic moat.