‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
People often note, like another comment here notes:<p>> since 1960 there has been a US economic recession once every 5 to 10 years. The last one ended in 2009, 9 years ago<p>This is an interesting line of thinking, but I think it's a mistake. We can use this fact itself and circumscribe some meta-thinking around it. Put the same fact another way, this is arguing that the 1960's started a <i>brand new paradigm</i> that was materially different from the 1950's-before.<p>For all we know, the 2020's+ will repeat the past (in a way) and usher in a paradigm different from the 1960's! No more recessions every 5-10 years.<p>So:<p>* Maybe from now on there will be a recession every 20 years<p>* Or Fed manipulation will get "so good" that we won't have large recessions<p>* Or capital's other options for returns (real estate, emerging markets, etc) will look bad-ish for the next 10 years and continue to prop up the stock market because its the only good outlet for extra cash for a decade or three<p>I could see any of these being plausible. I think leaning on the past is a bit of a mistake. Personally, I think the third one is quite possibly the case. Other non-stock-market options simply do not look as attractive as they used to, relatively.<p>The future will look very different from the past, as Thiel says.