An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus
>We project a true count of over 500,000 infections, including more than 5,000 severe cases, and a breakdown in provision of care (“overshoot”) in Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo, before the end of April.<p>The current count is ~21,000 with the number of confirmed daily cases declining for 6 days straight, from 741 to 338 yesterday. So... not only wrong on the numbers themselves, but also on the scale, trajectory and impact on society.<p>Japan's response seems commensurate with the problem, and this reads to me like an excessively verbose illustration of how one can spin even pre-registered falsifiable claims whichever way you want regardless of outcome. 'See? We were mostly right'.<p>Maybe that's too harsh.