Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment
I think history will suggest that the end of Deng Xiaoping's long-term strategy of "hide our capacities and bide our time" around 2015 was too premature to meet the government of China's long-term goals. The moderate amount of international goodwill that existed seems to have completely evaporated and been replaced with significant amounts of suspicion following the events of the past few years in the region.<p>Because of this, China finds it harder than ever to access US semi-conductor technology through financial means, being blocked from acquiring companies due to national security concerns. Even deals without any immediately obvious problems such as Broadcom/Qualcomm are being blocked.<p>Additionally, the demographics situation is very severe in China, and made worse by the gender-imbalance among young people caused by the One Child Policy. While Chinese government debt and household debt rates are relatively low, company debts are extremely high. Far too high for a nation without a high per-capita GDP. Interestingly enough, the demographic situation in the US is highly favorable compared to all other advanced economies (it also has a debt problem though)<p>The demographic situation dovetails into this interesting op-ed piece [1] about offering more green cards to international students -- it argues that even with the high risks of espionage in certain areas, it's well worthwhile for the long-term US economic competitiveness. I submitted this article to HN a few hours ago, but after 10 upvotes it was flagged -- which is unfortunate, I thought it's a very intellectually stimulating topic of discussion that's urgently required in our open, inclusive society. I highly recommend people read the article and think deeply about it.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-04/trump-is-closing-doors-to-world-s-smartest-people" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-04/trump-is-...</a>