NASA advisers say SpaceX rocket technology could put lives at risk
I think the last paragraph really says it all:<p>> Before the very first shuttle flight, NASA estimated that the chance of death was between 1 in 500 and 1 in 5,000. Later, after the agency had compiled data from shuttle flights, it went back and came up with a very different number. The chance of death was actually 1 in 12.<p>The fact is, these numbers are made up because the systems are too complicated to calculate based on individual components. Until they have something like 50+ launches (after the kinks are worked out), we wont really know the actual chances of blowing up a rocket are. Further, how well do the escape capsule(s) work? If they work the majority of the time (saving astronauts from he explosion), that'd also dramatically drive down the risk.<p>If say, there was a 1 in 30 chance of a rocket exploding using the method described, but the escape capsule failed to save the astronauts 1 out of 10 times. Then the real risk of killing the astronauts is 1 in 300. Unfortunately, we simply don't have either of those numbers, so the actual "risk" level is essentially made up.