Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
If you're looking for The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns[1], here it is: <a href="http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predictor-of-future-stock-market-returns/" rel="nofollow">http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre...</a><p>This is a long read, but it's worth it. The metric can be calculated in FRED[2], and as a predictor of future returns, it outperforms all of the most common stock market valuation metrics, including cyclically-adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio[3]. (Basically, the average investor portfolio allocation to equities versus bonds and cash is inversely correlated with future returns over the long-term. This works better than pure valuation models because it accounts for supply and demand dynamics.)<p>[1]: <a href="http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predictor-of-future-stock-market-returns/" rel="nofollow">http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre...</a><p>[2]: <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qis" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qis</a><p>[3]: <a href="http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/" rel="nofollow">http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/</a>