World Cup Follow-Up: Update of Winning Probabilities and Betting Results
Comparing this to 538's (quite different) Analysis [1]:<p>#1<p>* 538 - Brazil - 36.0%<p>* WOLF - Brazil - 32.2%<p>#2<p>* 538 - Argentina - 17.0%<p>* WOLF - Netherlands - 23.5%<p>#3<p>* 538 - Germany - 12.0%<p>* WOLF - Germany - 21.6%<p>This paints a pretty interesting picture about trying to use statistics and math to predict sporting tournaments like this. Seems like nobody has been very successful at this yet. Obviously it gets "easier" as the tournament progresses, though.<p>* [1] <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/" rel="nofollow">http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/</a>