Most people won't
I've been kind of struggling lately with this sort of inspirational attitude. It seems like a good attitude, but it also comes with this hidden assumption: if you try hard and keep at it, there's a good chance you'll succeed. Is this actually true?<p>I mean I want it to be true. I'd like to live in a world where it's true. But I don't actually have any hard evidence besides the testimonials of people who have found success, and I'm not sure if it's survivorship bias or an accurate picture of how one can become successful.<p>My theory is that chances of success are incredibly variable, and trying hard and putting yourself out there will increase that chance, but I can't figure out a ballpark for the baseline.<p>Is it even possible to crunch the numbers on something like this? I feel like we'll never know.<p>Knowing you gave it a shot is the important part, I suppose.