Why I don't believe in Uber's Success
The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence.  If I'm flying from NYC to DAL, I'm flying the cheapest carrier (with a slight nod to Frequent Flyer programs).<p>I'm not sure how Uber, Lyft, etc are any different than Southwest, American, etc.  Cab companies (which I hate) and airlines saw this years ago and promoted regulations to protect their fees (and, thereby, wages).  Airlines lost those regulations under Reagan.<p>To wit, I had dinner with a few friends in SF and it was raining when we left: "I'll call an Uber and we can share.  ewww...  250% surge pricing or $90.  Lemme check Lyft.  Sweet, Lyft is about $50.  Our Lyft will be here in 3 minutes."  There was <i>zero</i> friction switching from Uber to Lyft.<p>Winning in this market seems to require a Level 4+ autonomous car [1] <i></i>monopoly<i></i>.  Level 4+ autonomous cars are not going to be here anytime soon and Uber's not going to have a monopoly.  So it's going to continue to be a gnarly pricewar, made worse by Level 3 (in which the "driver"/pilot is a student doing his homework for $5/hour, taking over driving once or twice per hour).<p>Not sure I agree so much with the body of TFA but I certainly agree with its conclusion.<p>[1] <a href="http://www.techrepublic.com/article/autonomous-driving-levels-0-to-5-understanding-the-differences/" rel="nofollow">http://www.techrepublic.com/article/autonomous-driving-level...</a>