Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet
This is very similar to the sunrise problem.
Laplace said the probability of the sun rising tomorrow is (k+1)/(k+2), where k is the number of days we know the sun has risen consecutively, if we always saw it rise, and if we don't have any other information.<p><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunrise_problem" rel="nofollow">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunrise_problem</a>