Facebook is the new Excel
I didn't perceive the author's comments to be discouraging but if anyone else is feeling bummed out by the Facebook juggernaut, keep in mind what happened to  IBM, Microsoft, and Google.<p>When IBM built the original PC, they let Microsoft keep the rights to the operating system software.  In hindsight, it was a massive miscalculation as Microsoft's "software-without-the-hardware" business went on to earn more profits than IBM's hardware.  IBM's later weak attempt with OS/2 to beat Windows failed.<p>Microsoft's then CTO Nathan Myhrvold (who Bill Gates considered one of the smartest guys on the planet) was on a phone call with Larry and Sergei and yelled into the phone that "Search is NOT A PRODUCT!!!". (Probably their MSN hubris speaking.)  Microsoft's later attempt with Bing has hardly dented Google's search marketshare.<p>Google didn't notice the importance of social networking before Facebook did.  Google's later attempt with Google+ Circles failed to trigger a mass exodus from Facebook.<p>Facebook.... <story is yet to be written>  but the <i>same</i> thing will happen to them.  Somebody will come up with something that blindsides them.  Or it might not even sneak up on them.  Mark Z himself may look at the early-stage product and conclude that it's not anything special.<p>There are plenty of untapped business ideas that Facebook <i>will</i> misjudge and dismiss, leaving others to win that market.<p>But to the author's point, it will suck if you create a product that paints a bullseye and it lines up in Facebook's crosshairs.   Microsoft couldn't beat Intuit Quicken with MS Money but they <i>did</i> crush Netscape with IE.  They lose some, they win some.