The work is never just “the work” (2022)
I’ve come to the recent conclusion that estimating is not so much hard, but uneconomical.<p>The amount of time/effort required to create a reliable estimate would probably double the cost of the <i>completed</i> project (ie, even after taking into account the overshoot on the informal estimate). The number of failed projects as a percentage of all projects would fall, but less projects would even start.<p>We conflate  “can’t estimate” with “not willing to do all the work necessary to create an accurate estimate” because we know that it’s easier and more economical to just jump into the code, than it is to do a deep, formal analysis.<p>What’s really happening is that we are giving up accurate estimates to reduce overall cost.<p>Unfortunately, businesses only see the overshoot on time (which they incorrectly equate with project cost) and not the actual undershoot on budget relative to a project that has been fully planned.<p>(Note that I’m not really talking about waterfall. More “plan to build it twice, because you will anyway”)