Emissions are no longer following the worst case scenario
> This is due to the rapidly accelerating energy transition..<p>Err, just NO. This is largely due to global trade being flat for the past 10 years [1], this is a good proxy to measure <i>real</i> economic growth. Don't believe GDP as an indicator of real growth, they keep on adding fictitious sources to these numbers. Did you know that rent is part of GDP? And even rent that homeowners would have paid to a landlord had they owned their home? [2]<p>So basically this is just about the world becoming poorer since the 2008 financial crisis (and covid of course).<p>Also, "not following the worst case scenario" is not really a reason to rejoice, 4.5 degrees is still absolutely terrible.<p>Also, funny enough the page they link to as a source for "Global CO2 emissions (both fossil and land use) have been relatively flat" has for title "Analysis: Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels hit record high in 2022" [3]. So, lols.<p>I could also add that less emissions <i>growth</i> doesn't mean less carbon accumulates in the atmosphere [4]<p>[1] <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/merchandise-exports-gdp-cepii?time=1980..latest&country=~OWID_WRL">https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/merchandise-exports-gdp-c...</a><p>[2] <a href="https://unherd.com/2018/11/truth-gdp-figures/" rel="nofollow">https://unherd.com/2018/11/truth-gdp-figures/</a><p>[3] <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-hit-record-high-in-2022/" rel="nofollow">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-fr...</a><p>[4] <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/" rel="nofollow">https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/</a>