Upzoning will ease housing affordability problems
Not a NIMBY. But. What these type of pieces never discuss is <i>how much</i> they think rents will be brought down by upzoning.<p>Manhattan&#x2F;the Bay Area&#x2F;LA&#x2F;DC would need staggering rental decreases to reach anyone&#x27;s definition of &#x27;affordable&#x27;, much less the government&#x27;s definition of a middle class family. Like, 33-50%+. I struggle to find examples of this happening in market economies outside of a major natural disaster.<p>If the US was an authoritarian dictatorship and we bulldozed every single family home in the Bay Area, and replaced them with 100 story apartment buildings as far as the eye can see, of course rents would dramatically decrease. Seeing as that&#x27;s not an option- the discussion is how much could rents be brought down by upzoning in a market economy where only so many homes are sold every year, developers can only build so much per year, development is very economic cycle and interest rate driven, etc. Like, upzoning only works once the existing single family home owner sells, and then a developer purchases. Did you know the average turnover in many neighborhoods is 1-2% annually? Thousands of units are not exactly going to flood the market overnight.<p>I&#x27;m for upzoning generally, but people assign it magical properties that don&#x27;t exist IRL. The whole NIMBY&#x2F;YIMBY&#x2F;build more discussion is kinda reaching unrealistic fever pitches among the right crowd of people who, like, follow Noah Smith on Twitter or whatever