How This Ends
I&#x27;m going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction.<p>1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate.<p>2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index without having these names in your portfolio.<p>3. These valuations blew up even further because of call squeezes during the 2020-2021 bull. Tesla even managed to get itself into the S&amp;P.<p>5. Then in December, the megacaps we&#x27;re squeezed further until the S&amp;P 500 had a negative return relative to price!<p>A lot of this occured because people remained under the impression that bond yields would never normalize. Now that they have, there is a risk free alternative to stocks.<p>Now for the next complications: Ukraine + Russia, economic war with  China, inflation, how the fed will respond, gas prices.<p>If inflation continues and the fed becomes aggressive with hiking, all assets are dead. Bonds will be wrecked, stocks will be wrecked, cash is wrecked, even gold (depending on how aggressively they hike) will be dead because it&#x27;s actually a really good deal to buy bonds when they yield north of 10% (if we get there).<p>Say the fed decides not to hike as aggressively and inflation slows, then you&#x27;ll be holding the S&amp;P 500 likely for yield than growth. In the case of a recession or further inflation, that yield may be at risk depending on the sectors you&#x27;re invested in.<p>In this context the correction in names like Target make perfect sense. The dividend was near zero at it&#x27;s price before the cut. Same thing happened in a company like Newmont mining.