Ask HN: What's the next big thing that few people are talking about?
The stumble over abandonment of ICE vehicles.<p>By 2030 (8 years from now) at least six manufacturers will have stopped making ICE vehicles entirely, and India claims it will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles. By 2040 (18 years from now) over half of all new cars sold will be electric, and the UK and France claim they will ban the sale of ICE-only vehicles.<p>However, there&#x27;s still not a plan that makes all that sustainable, as we need 30% more grid capacity, an insanely higher number of chargers (1 out of 4 are duds) &#x2F; service companies &#x2F; land, China still controls most of the resources for production (of raw resources, manufacturing, &amp; assembly) and now they want the chips too. And the climate picture isn&#x27;t great either, with not enough new clean energy capacity going online, and only 8 million barrels of crude will be displaced by the estimated number of new EVs. Even with all of this new work, there will be only a small reduction in carbon emissions.<p>Basically there are so many things that can go wrong in the next 18 years, and so many things we don&#x27;t even have a plan for, that all the estimates we&#x27;ve been given will result in dysfunction, increased prices, and soaring secondary markets. A lot of people are going to make money just from preparing for things to go wrong.