Why gold and Bitcoin are popular
I think it’s hard to make the argument against allocating somewhere on the order of 1% of your portfolio to crypto.<p>I know many here are stridently anti-crypto, but there is some not very likely but plausible future where Bitcoin or Ethereum become the global reserve asset. Much the same way gold was in the 19th century or IMF drawing rights have operated at certain points post Breton Woods.<p>This is entirely different than the scalability limits that stand in the way of Bitcoin becoming a consumer currency. In this future, only major central banks and financial institutions would hold physical Bitcoin. Consumers would use either Bitcoin backed scrip issued by a bank. Or fiat currency where global confidence largely  stems from the central bank’s BTC reserves.<p>I’d give this future a 1% of happening in the next 15 years. And conditional on it occurring, I’d estimate the price of BTC would likely increase by two orders of magnitude. From a pure expected value standpoint that makes crypto one of the most compelling asset classes around.