Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
&quot;If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned&quot;<p>Except... many builders will find some other reason&#x2F;excuse where prices are high to keep prices high.  We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate).  Lumber was going higher, but we&#x27;d reduced the house plan size.  Lumber kept going up... and up... Then... no parts were available (IIRC certain trusses were unavailable for months, that&#x27;s just one that stuck out).<p>We regrouped a bit later.  House was now going to be min $620k, but... no guarantee it would be $650k or $700k.  Builder has been working on spec homes in the $700k-$900k range last few months, whereas exact same size houses 1 block away they were building and selling in the mid-$400s 14 months ago.<p>Before we cancelled the project, we asked why we couldn&#x27;t build something smaller and target a time in a few months, as lumber was coming way down to where it was 18 months ago.  &quot;Everything else has skyrocketed...&quot;  which... I know things have gone up some in the last 18 months, but I think there&#x27;s simply some &quot;get high prices while you can&quot;.<p>When talking to some home finance folks, they&#x27;re all saying &quot;watch out for HELOCs in 18-24 months - people will be clamoring for HELOCs as they won&#x27;t be able to sell these $700k houses they&#x27;re buying, because they won&#x27;t have appreciated at all, and the homeowners will be trapped&quot;.<p>There may be &#x27;blowout&#x27; prices on lumber itself, but around here I&#x27;m not seeing any &#x27;blowout&#x27; prices on new construction in the short term.