The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980–2020 (1997)
Several things struck me: first no real presaging of social media, but instead a view of personalised and interactive &quot;media&quot;. Maybe this is what we are now transitioning to with the apparent collapse of twitter and facebook? I think that the change in &quot;community&quot; that the last 40 years has brought is one of the most shocking things. So many of the mechanisms of connection that I vaguely remember from my childhood and youth seem to have been transformed or destroyed. Local bars are either not there, or just not places that you can go and hang out. There are no clubs, no associations. We don&#x27;t go to church or join community groups.<p>The article sees some of the geographic drivers that have brought change but misses at least one obvious and huge one - the one child policy in China. This is now (I think) probably the most plangent fact of the 21st Century.<p>The article sees a path forward into the future, but in fact from then to now has been a series of discontinuities. Maybe history is more like the sea coming in and going out with waves crashing and receeding. I wonder which way it&#x27;s really going.<p>Of note I think that the scenario spoilers in the article have largely materialised. Perhaps there&#x27;s a lesson for futurists there - the things that you see as contingencies are more likely to be real than the things that you write in the main narrative because the main narrative is what you are hoping to happen; that&#x27;s where your bias is.<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>10 Scenario Spoilers<p>The long boom is a scenario, one possible future. It’s built upon the convergence of many big forces and even more little pieces falling into place—all of them with a positive twist. The future of course, could turn out to be very different—particularly if a few of those big pieces go haywire. Here are 10 things that could cut short the long boom.<p>1. Tensions between China and the US escalate into a new Cold War—bordering on a hot one.<p>&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>well, we&#x27;re getting there on this<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;
2. New technologies turn out to be a bust. They simply don’t bring the expected productivity increases or the big economic boosts.
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>I think that this is both completely true and completely false. We haven&#x27;t seen measurable gains, but I think everyone is very suspicious that this is because we are not measuring properly. We are missing something about this.<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>3. Russia devolves into a kleptocracy run by a mafia or retreats into quasicommunist nationalism that threatens Europe.
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>yup<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;
4. Europe’s integration process grinds to a halt. Eastern and western Europe can’t finesse a reunification, and even the European Union process breaks down.
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>It nearly broke, but it didn&#x27;t and I think that there is growing reason to think that Europe can strengthen itself again. The wild card is the German economy. For the last 20 years Germany has dominated the union and distorted everything around itself with a booming labour market and capital flow from the periphery to the core. Now cheap energy is gone it could be that these trends reverse. This will strengthen (at least relatively) the periphery of the eurozone. I wonder if German politics will be able to adapt to this and whether the German economy can transition to a new stable state successfully and relatively painlessly? I don&#x27;t see the concerted investments and reorientation that I think that Germany needs to do, and if it doesn&#x27;t come soon it may be too late and not possible.<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>5. Major ecological crisis causes a global climate change that, among other things, disrupts the food supply—causing big price increases everywhere and sporadic famines.
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>scary close<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>6. Major rise in crime and terrorism forces the world to pull back in fear. People who constantly feel they could be blown up or ripped off are not in the mood to reach out and open up.
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>yup 9&#x2F;11 and beyond.<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>7. The cumulative escalation in pollution causes a dramatic increase in cancer, which overwhelms the ill-prepared health system.
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>It&#x27;s in the stats - cancer is on the rise in the young. Is it due to pollution? Possibly. Is it overwhelming the health system - maybe. Old people are probably a bigger issue.<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>8. Energy prices go through the roof. Convulsions in the Middle East disrupt the oil supply, and the alternative energy sources fail to materialize.<p>&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>we rode this wave for a long time. The energy system is getting more diverse, we have permian oil and gas in quantities that were not forseen in 1997. We have wind and solar at a higher level than anticipated, but in reality we are still vulnerable to this one.<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>9. An uncontrollable plague—a modern-day influenza epidemic or its equivalent—takes off like wildfire, killing upward of 200 million people.
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>&quot;only&quot; 7 million or so died of Covid. I had imagined that the number was much higher than that, but I think global societies response was pretty good. Of course we got lucky in a way, we were able to manage it - another virus might have done much more damage. Maybe we will see the advances in vaccines that we took advantage of during Covid as a way that we stop this sort of disaster in the future. I hope I don&#x27;t live to see that proposition tested though.<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;<p>10. A social and cultural backlash stops progress dead in its tracks. Human beings need to choose to move forward. They just may not …
&lt;&lt;&lt;<p>Well, I read facebook and Twitter and I wonder about this.