Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
No. Very simply, an extreme response is required here. The most recent UCL study demonstrates that given everything we know about the virus, extreme social distancing may not even be enough [1]. Worse, if we are successful, it will look like we overreacted because the nature of exponential spread is that if you act when you’re on the steep part of the curve you’re too late. If you act beforehand, you never get to the steep part.<p>The test, while developed quickly, isn’t likely showing lots of false positives. The nature of these tests is that they’re not too hard to quality control. You know what they’re looking for (a particular set of RNA sequences) so positive and negative controls are easy to make. In fact that’s why the CDC test was rejected initially, there was a clear issue with the controls.<p>For hospital beds, people don’t just randomly end up in the ICU. Italian ICU capacity is completely overwhelmed, if not this virus, why?<p>That said, hoarding groceries is counterproductive and an overreaction. Otherwise, absolutely not, this is a terrible virus, we need to be careful.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.imperial.ac.uk&#x2F;mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis&#x2F;news--wuhan-coronavirus&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.imperial.ac.uk&#x2F;mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...</a><p>EDIT: Typo