Do climate models predict extreme weather?
One of the things about &quot;extreme weather attribution&quot; that makes me uncomfortable is the asymmetry of it.  To be clear: I&#x27;m in no way an expert (or even educated) in the area.<p>To give an example.  Let&#x27;s say there&#x27;s a 1% chance every year that there will be a catastrophic wildfire in some particular area.  Now let&#x27;s say climate change increases a chance of drought in that area.  Then we get a wildfire one year and the attribution is (say) &quot;20% due to climate change&quot; -- which I guess means there is now a 1.2% annual chance of a catastrophic fire.<p>But what if climate change causes more rain in the area?  And, for the sake of argument, that causes the change of catastrophic fire to go <i>down</i> to say 0.8%.  Then, in a given year, there is <i>no</i> fire.  No one is going to bother doing an attribution study to say, &quot;Climate change is 20% responsible for the fact that we <i>didn&#x27;t</i> have a fire this year.&quot;