EVs Could Make Dealerships a Thing of the Past, Too
Dealers make little money off sales these days.  Basically just a finders fee if they sell you financial products.  When it comes to ICE specific stuff dealerships basically only do warranty work.  Engine specific stuff is a minority of warranty work because power-trains are generally much more dialed in (and last the warranty period) than the special HVAC flapper that has to be redesigned for some specific model to reduce space usage so they could fit a redesigned glove box without designing a new airbag mount.  Indy mechanics are the ones replacing exhausts and head gaskets.<p>All mechanics do an easy 10:1 (probably closer to 50:1 ratio) of changing wear items compared to fixing leaks (the primary source of ICE maintenance).  By the time 100k timing services and whatnot roll around most cars are in the hands of people who are taking them to independent mechanics for budgetary reasons.  While the HN crowd can justify the cost of having that stuff done at the dealer for peace of mind your average person is taking those jobs to an independent.<p>The switch to EV is not going to strongly impact the kind of service the dealers do the most of.  It&#x27;s too close to call whether the reduction in the size of the warranty work ball and chain will be larger than the reduction in gravy timing jobs and exhaust repairs, in any case it&#x27;s not a massive net difference.<p>The reason you see people on the Tesla and the Bolt forums (or HN) with their claims of insanely low maintenance costs per mile is selection bias.  The early adopters have other cars for other tasks.  They (mostly, I&#x27;m sure someone&#x27;s done it) aren&#x27;t renting the Uhaul moving trailer to put behind their Model 3 because they have other better options available.  They tend to live in nice suburbs with nice roads and mostly commute with their EVs.  With that kind of use most of these vehicles aren&#x27;t wearing out fast.  It&#x27;s the closest thing a commuter car will get to a &quot;church and bingo&quot; usage pattern.  When EVs get in the hands of the &quot;rolling negative equity into a Dodge Journey&#x2F;Nissan Altima&quot; crowd and get used and maintained that way the maintenance costs are going to look a lot like the ICE vehicles they&#x27;re replacing in that role.