The Toxoplasma of Rage (2014)
&gt;&gt; Studies sometimes claim that only 2 to 8 percent of rape allegations are false. Yet the rate for allegations that go ultra-viral in the media must be an order of magnitude higher than this.<p>Which implies that publicising a rape allegation makes it difficult to prosecute it successfully. The article suggests instead that feminist activists specifically select false allegations for publicity, which seems to assume that feminist activists possess some kind of ability to identify false allegations before they are prosecuted, or, indeed, to <i>predict the outcome of a rape case</i> with high accuracy. This is a very strong assumption and is the first thing that should be tested for consistency.<p>A simpler explanation is that rape allegations are more likely to lead to a failed prosecution, than they are likely to be false. If that was the case, we should expect to also observe a higher rate of failed prosecutions in general (i.e. regardless of publicity) than the rate of false rape allegations.<p>Though I can&#x27;t find much relevant data for the United States (there is more for the UK) some sources suggest that such an effect can indeed be observed:<p><i>According to FBI statistics, out of 127,258 rapes reported to police departments in 2018, 33.4 percent resulted in an arrest.[13] Based on correlating multiple data sources, RAINN (Rape, Abuse, and Incest National Network) estimates[30] that for every 1,000 rapes, 384 are reported to police, 57 result in an arrest, 11 are referred for prosecution, 7 result in a felony conviction, and 6 result in incarceration. This compares to a higher rate at every stage for similar crimes. </i><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Rape_in_the_United_States#Prosecution_rate" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Rape_in_the_United_States#Pros...</a><p>In other words, while 2-8% of rape allegations are false (according to the article), about 0.7% of rape allegations are successfully prosecuted. Such low rate of successful prosecutions would easily account for a high rate of publicised cases failing without the need of a specialised rape prosecution outcome prediction organ in feminist activists.