Intel and the Danger of Integration
I don&#x27;t think, right now Integration is something wrong about Intel. It is how they miscalculate every thing every time for the past years, even before BK. Planning &#x2F; Vision, and Execution, I am not sure if there are anything else other then these two attribute that is important to a company, and Intel lacked both.<p>Intel used to win because they have an effectively monopoly in PC market. The high price, high margin and high volume CPU drove investment in tech and their Fab. That was possibly the only item I know other then iPhone that had those three factors together. When the Smartphone revolution started, everything changed. The scale changed, TSMC now produce possibly close to 5x volume then Intel do at Intel Fabs, and their leading node 7nm will likely reach a similar quantity to Intel&#x27;s 14nm in 12 months time.<p>TSMC now has 2X+ the Total addressable market in leading node compared to Intel. So while new leading node investment cost continue to increase, TSMC also had increasing market size to help spread itself. If you note Intel&#x27;s mainstream CPU die size, the trend has been going downwards over recent years,  i.e They are optimising for cost.<p>Intel could also have expanded their Scale. They could have kept their integration and make more chip, expanding their Fab advantage in both scale and technology.  Although they did but it was either late or taken far too long. Their GPU is only looking to launch in 2020, as a first gen product I doubt they will make much an impact and volume. Imagine they had a dGPU prepared 4 years ago, when the crypto wave hit, they ride the wave and gain money earned from Crypto, or they would have a dGPU for a market prices that is cheaper then what ever Nvidia or AMD&#x27;s bumped up prices. Their 14nm process would actually be miles ahead of 28nm or 16nm that those GPU had.<p>It took them 8 years, 8 years! from acquiring Infineon modem to actually produce a modem in their own Fabs. Next time some M&amp;A talks about synergy one should ask them, how long does it take. Now they have the contract for iPhone modem and could produce it themselves instead of TSMC, they face a new problem that no one has asked so far. How is Intel going find additional capacity to produce an additional 100M modem for Apple over the next year? My guess, the original plan of Intel was the move to the much delayed 10nm will finally be fixed in 2018, leaving some room for the Modem. The modem is much smaller in size, so it is more like 40M unit to Intel&#x27;s median chip size. But that is still roughly 20% additional unit Intel has to chip on their leading node.<p>And if you had read some rumours about Intel delaying, or renaming their chipset originally going from 22nm to 14nm. That is a possible reason why.
May be they shouldn&#x27;t have defer Fab 42&#x27;s construction in the first place.<p>I am pretty sure BK&#x27;s departure has more to do with his performance then whatever they wrote in that PR. And may likely has something to do with Apple. I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised if Apple has been unhappy about Intel&#x27;s lying and execution. Remember when Apple started to design their &quot;thinner&quot; MacBook and MacBook Pro, it was obvious they had 10nm and 7nm Intel&#x27;s CPU in mind. First was suppose to happen last year and the latter schedule for next year. This two year delay, which Apple may or may not know, put Apple in an awkward position. Their custom foundry, were suppose to attract Apple to built an integrated SoC with Intel Modem inside, which is now even less likely to happen when Intel has not been as open about its problem. When Apple contracted Morris in TSMC, they managed to bring up a new Fab running for Apple in less then 6 months. It was a big bet on both side, billions of dollar invested. Could you imagine Intel doing that? These relationship takes time to built, and TSMC right now has literally zero fault.<p>I do agree Intel now faces another turning point, last time they had Andy Grove, now I am not sure who they have hire to get this behemoth running. The task is enormous, and lots of Intel&#x27;s best engineers and executive have left the company. The only one who may have a slim chance to completely transform Intel is Pat Gelsinger, if Andy Grove saved Intel last time, it will be his apprentice to save Intel again. Unfortunately given what Intel has done to Pat during his last tenure, I am not sure if he is willing to pick up the job, especially the board&#x27;s Chairman is Bryant, not sure how well they go together. But we know Pat still loves Intel, and I know a lot of us miss Pat.