Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
I don&#x27;t have the background to answer your questions, but even if I steelman and assume the worst outcome here (issues with the test, issues with epidemiology, that we&#x27;re crowding out hospitals, that we&#x27;re infecting via hospitals), I would argue that we are still not overreacting:<p>In the original outbreak of wuhan, there could not have been overpreparation because there was no preparation, the outbreak simply happened. So, we should look at wuhan pre-citywide-quarantine to get a feel for what it would look like if we chose to not &quot;overreact&quot;, as originally there was no real &quot;test&quot; being administered, cases were diagnosed by CT scans of lungs for pneumonia, and there were not extreme imposed social distancing or population-wide quarantine.<p>So, any issues we might have in the west, should not apply to the original outbreak in wuhan. And in wuhan the casualties of the outbreak were on the order of 1-5% (i think estimates varied a lot for some of the reasons you list). In any case, it overloaded hospitals and a lot of people died.<p>If the infection reaches a broader population (the &#x27;underreaction&#x27; scenario), it suffices to say the death rate will be a MINIMUM of 1-5%, as obviously the situation would be even worse with a large percentage of the population sick. This would continue until the population reaches herd immunity, estimated 30-60% of population infected.<p>Thus, we can conclude 1-5% of that 30-60% of the infected population would die, which in america ranges from about 1 million to nearly 10 million deaths. This is far far far greater than the yearly flu outbreak. And that&#x27;s assuming that the rapid spread of the disease doesn&#x27;t cause secondary effects through deteriorating supply chains (who staffs grocery stores if 60% of the population is home? who drives trucks to keep supply chains going? who works the amazon fulfillment center?)<p>Thus, I would conclude that the penalties for unabated spread of the disease are <i>so horrific</i> that the only reasonable response is something that looks like an overreaction: extreme social distancing, shutting down cities aside from vital functions, etc.<p>Because atleast our groceries stores operate and our supply chains are running.