Two Koreas Agree to End War This Year, Pursue Denuclearization
This is a trap.<p>South Korea and the United States are politically weak right now -- not necessarily the leaders, but the political systems are at a low point of unity and resolve. Neither country really wants to deal with North Korea right now. People in each country would like this drama to be over, because it feels dangerous and intractable. The leaders in each country would love to deliver that feeling to us.<p>Kim Jong-un has an incredibly strong hand. He has nuclear missiles at his disposal, with apparently rapid progress toward increasing their range. He knows that other nations are fearful of those weapons, and that they won&#x27;t do anything that risks putting them on the receiving end of even one.<p>We&#x27;ve had one bold historic headline after another now: Kim Jong-un has telegraphed a desire to denuclearize and to end the Korean war. He has raised the hopes of South Koreans and of Americans just enough that they each want a deal now, and their leaders now <i>need</i> to deliver.<p>But the price has not yet been negotiated.<p>What will be the price? Will Kim promise to stop further nuclear development? Will Kim promise to stop further missile development? Will Kim promise not to help other states develop nuclear missiles? Will Kim promise not to radically modernize his military in other ways as the floodgates of trade open?<p>Promises are inexpensive and reversible. Will he actually take any real steps to diminish or eliminate his nuclear and military power? I doubt it. Kim&#x27;s not an idiot. He only needs to present the illusion.<p>People in the West seem to believe that Kim has experienced some sort of rebirth as a student of peace and nonviolence of late. But there&#x27;s been no explanation and no demonstration (to my ears) of where that came from. It&#x27;s possible perhaps that Xi Jinping whispered wonderful ideas and&#x2F;or threats in Kim Jong-un&#x27;s ear when he visited, but that&#x27;s opaque to us and media I&#x27;ve read seems to be ignorant of such potential influence. If Kim were so serious, we should need him to demonstrate that credibly to us, through actions that are costly for him to take: in particular, pitching this change of vision directly and passionately to the populace of North Korea.<p>Kim Jong-un wants to get out from under the chokehold of heavy trade sanctions. He wants to be legitimized in the international community as the leader of a real nation. He wants to modernize both his military and his nation and his personal life. He probably dreams of visiting Paris and Manhattan.<p>It is my belief that he will be able to get these things -- without giving up nuclear weapons, missiles, nor giving up his political or military power over North Korea. From Kim&#x27;s perspective, democratic politicians are weak and manipulable, and he will find it to be especially true right now.<p>(edit: s&#x2F;telescoped&#x2F;telegraphed&#x2F; -- thanks!)