Bayes's Theorem: What's the Big Deal?
I&#x27;ve been saying this for <i>years</i>, and this is a large reason why I find the LessWrong folks to be almost entirely full of it.  Their inability to come up with accurate priors is completely lost on many of the folks who follow this kind of thinking.<p>A couple of comments are saying, &quot;no duh&quot; to this article, but those folks likely don&#x27;t realize quite how many other people are falling into this trap.  &quot;Garbage in, garbage out&quot; is only good advice when the person you&#x27;re saying it to realizes they&#x27;re putting garbage in.