Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in the observable universe
Possibly, but not the way to bet.  Live appeared on Earth very soon after it started to solidify.  That would tend to imply that starting life was pretty easy or, life arrived by some kind of panspermia mechanism.  There is a next to infinitesimal chance that life started very quickly by some kind of once in billions of years magical circumstance.<p>To go from life to beings like humanity it&#x27;s pretty clear that intelligence tends to increase as life goes on.  For example some birds so exceptional abilities and they are dinosaurs according to most current understandings.  Octopus can be remarkably clever and their lineage split from the &quot;animals with backbones&quot; line long before there were animals with backbones.  Nerves and nervous systems seem to have been reinvented by evolution several different times.<p>Putting this altogether, it seems there&#x27;s an excellent chance that primitive uni-cellular life evolves pretty readily and multi-cellular animals tend towards increased intelligence soon there after.<p>There&#x27;s an assumption that &quot;advanced civilizations&quot; will be communicating with TV and Radio because that&#x27;s the best we&#x27;ve got.  On average most advanced civilizations would have had their technology for much more than 150 years and very likely communicate with methods we are not aware of yet.<p>So when it&#x27;s asked &quot;Where are they?&quot; the answer is they are out there, talking up a storm, they&#x27;re just not still using electromagnetic &quot;smoke signals&quot; to do it.