Trapped priors as a basic problem of rationality
The problem that I always have with this author’s material and most material in the “rationalist movement” is that after making very valid points about biases, irrational behavior, etc., he seems to leave things at some sort of implicit epistemological nihilism. Since people on the left and the right in American politics both have biases, and both believe their beliefs just as strongly as the other side, apparently we can’t discern anything about their political views other than how their views make them feel? That’s the vibe I’m getting from stuff like this:<p>&gt; I&#x27;ve had arguments with people who believe that no pro-life conservative really cares about fetuses, they just want to punish women for being sluts by denying them control over their bodies. And I&#x27;ve had arguments with people who believe that no pro-lockdown liberal really cares about COVID deaths, they just like the government being able to force people to wear masks as a sign of submission. Once you&#x27;re at the point where all these things sound plausible, you are doomed.<p>Apparently you’re doomed if you believe one of those things describes reality more than the other? They’re both extreme generalizations, obviously, and are defined imprecisely (“no true Scotsman”), but couldn’t it be that one of those two groups of people have beliefs that correspond much more with reality? Or is the conclusion that, since this is politics, and political views is intensely personal and prone to bias, that both sides are equally correct?<p>Isn’t it possible that there actually are some powerful political groups who have honest and good intentions and others which do not? Isn’t that possible even if most people have a tendency to believe that their own groups are the good ones, and that belief is just as strong for each group? Is it impossible for me to believe my group’s intentions are honest and good, and you believe just as strongly that your group’s intentions are honest and good, but that only one of us is correct? Is knowledge nothing more than a feeling of certainty? Or is knowledge simply impossible?