Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots
Top people including DeepMind&#x27;s CEO Demis Hassabis and Prof Stuart Russell, a AAAI and AAAS fellow who is a co-author of the AI textbook used at most of top universities, agree that AGI is definitely possible and going to happen. [1]<p>Hassabis also stated in another session that there are probably <i>at least half a dozen mountains to climb before reaching AGI and he would be surprised if it takes more than 20.</i> He also said that it has been easier to develop major advances than he thought. [2]<p>Considering that there has been about one major leap per year in neural networks architecture and systems for the past 3-4 years, and this includes training neural networks to do one-shot learning for physical robot control after practicing in a simulator, should we really be that complacent?<p>Even if the advances slow down to one per 2 years and it takes 12 of them to get to AGI, that&#x27;s only 24 years. If the rate continues to be one per year, that&#x27;s only 12 years.<p>[1] From the start of <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;h0962biiZa4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;h0962biiZa4</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;V0aXMTpZTfc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;V0aXMTpZTfc</a><p>Note: Reinforcement Learning is far from the only component being researched at major labs, including DeepMind and OpenAI.