What if performance advertising is just an analytics scam?
There are so many holes in these arguments that you could drive a truck through it. Which is so infuriating, because a big part of my professional career consisted of watching all of Rand&#x27;s SEO videos and really appreciating them. I really thought he was a genius. But then over the past few years, he started sharing more general views on entrepreneurship, and those takeaways just didn&#x27;t really make much sense. Basically, his own VC-funded company turned into a shit show and suddenly he started advocating against VC in general (as opposed to taking an honest look at the mistakes that his company made). So in the past few years, I tried to reconcile in my head: how can a genius make such imperfect conclusions? My initial takeaway was that he&#x27;s blinded by his own mistakes and shifting the blame, which seems perfectly reasonable and understandable. Frankly, I would probably feel and act the same way.<p>But after reading this article, it finally dawned on me. He makes imperfect conclusions in everything he touches, it&#x27;s just that in some fields those conclusions can be more easily proved to be wrong than in others. SEO is the perfect field where a polished presenter can get away with imperfect conclusions for years - trust me, I know, I made a living for years in this field, and I am very familiar with the nature of this work. Most of the time, you have no idea what the black box really does, and instead you&#x27;re just trying to guess what might have happened. Most importantly, there are many ways to skin a cat in SEO, and just because your approach is net positive doesn&#x27;t mean that you truly are delivering the global maximum (or that the net positive gain was ROI positive). In short, it&#x27;s impossible to know who&#x27;s right and who&#x27;s wrong, and Rand&#x27;s videos convinced me that he&#x27;s right, but I am no longer sure. I just rewatched one of them, and can easily see how his conclusions are just... opinions.<p>While we may or may never find out if his SEO opinions were the global maximum, we can quantifiably demonstrate that his opinions on content marketing are not solid. This whole essay he wrote can be replaced with &quot;hey performance marketers, don&#x27;t trust the platform numbers and instead do your incrementality studies.&quot; Platforms like Facebook will give you those for free if you reach a certain spend level, and you can also get them from 3rd party providers like measured.com. In other words, if you&#x27;re a performance marketer and you&#x27;re not conducting incrementality studies, then you&#x27;re very early in your career and are not following the best practices. Simple as that - no need to extrapolate from there and reach all sorts of additional conclusions (which is obviously a pattern in Rand&#x27;s behavior) - calling into question a perfectly investable marketing channel, conflating the needs of a public company with everyone else&#x27;s needs, using words like scam, etc.<p>I am really disappointed to have to write this, but you would have been better off not reading this article. If Rand is really advocating that the majority of entrepreneurs should follow his advice and focus on PR instead of performance marketing, then perhaps an honest thing to ask would be - how is that working out for his own company? AFAIK, SparkToro is nowhere close to replicating the growth of his previous company, which is honestly disappointing for someone with such a huge reach and name recognition.