CA governor projecting 25.5M COVID19 cases in CA in 8 weeks [pdf]
Swag maths on the business-as-usual scenario incoming, bound to be very wrong:<p>3.4% mortality rate among those presenting symptoms. (via WHO)<p>As low as 17.9% of cases asymptomatic: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;brucelee&#x2F;2020&#x2F;03&#x2F;18&#x2F;what-percentage-have-covid-19-coronavirus-but-do-not-know-it&#x2F;#42991ddf7e90" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;brucelee&#x2F;2020&#x2F;03&#x2F;18&#x2F;what-percen...</a><p>Of the symptomatic cases, 80.9% are mild (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencealert.com&#x2F;large-chinese-study-finds-most-coronavirus-infections-are-mild" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencealert.com&#x2F;large-chinese-study-finds-most-...</a>) and we&#x27;re assuming only the ones that present risks are being tested.<p>So if the 25.5m figure stands correct, we&#x27;re looking at what, a range of 195,000 to 695,000 possibly passed on in california before June depending on whether you apply it to not-mild (19.1%) cases v. all symptomatic (82.1%) cases?<p>I can&#x27;t find any concrete sources on how anyone is calculating current mortality rates for the bug, but:<p>1. that swing is <i>unfathomable</i> to me<p>2. those numbers are <i>unfathomable</i> to me. Especially once extrapolated to the whole country assuming 56% of the nation contracts it.