Alaskan North Slope climate change just outran one of our tools to measure it
This is on a tangent but lately i have begun to consider the possibility that short term climate change will cause a rapid and complete global collapse.<p>This is from talking to actual climate scientists and seeing them making very real short term practical investments and decisions regarding geographical location, frugality and not having kids.<p>Examples of that here: 
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=jIy0t5P0CUQ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=jIy0t5P0CUQ</a><p>And this is not fringe science anymore. The latest predictions from the largest meta reviews are all, -even though still conservative-, blasting through the ceilings of the worst scenarios. Latest a 4 degree celcius average shift in 80 years.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.eceee.org&#x2F;all-news&#x2F;news&#x2F;news-2017&#x2F;worst-case-global-warming-predictions-are-the-most-accurate-say-climate-experts&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.eceee.org&#x2F;all-news&#x2F;news&#x2F;news-2017&#x2F;worst-case-glo...</a><p>While 4 degrees sounds manageable, it would actually cause a severe die-off off most off the human population because of a complete break down of the stable regional weather systems which the whole global ecology has adapted to over thousands of years of evolution. There is simply no time for an agricultural adaptation, and not enough time for migration or biological transformation.<p>The previous changes in global climate has taken orders of magnitudes longer than the current one, this is one of the many misconceptions floating in around in the collective consciousness, in part pushed by the army of lawyers, PR-employees and astroturfers employed by the energy sector. The internet and the media landscape in general is rife with them as far as i have observed.<p>Also 4 degrees is extremely optimistic.<p>Look at this article about an increase in degrees  ( Not very old and already its focusing on 2 degrees, half of the new consensus ): <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cbc.ca&#x2F;news2&#x2F;interactives&#x2F;2degrees&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cbc.ca&#x2F;news2&#x2F;interactives&#x2F;2degrees&#x2F;</a><p>The goalposts keep getting pushed and the modeling from the Paris Agreement is based of scenarios where deus ex machina like geo-engineering will suddenly become available and save us all. Pure magical thinking at least from a scientific perspective - even though i really believe in human ingenuity.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cigionline.org&#x2F;sites&#x2F;default&#x2F;files&#x2F;documents&#x2F;GeoEngineering Primer - Special Report.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cigionline.org&#x2F;sites&#x2F;default&#x2F;files&#x2F;documents&#x2F;Geo...</a><p>But things are probably going to get much, much worse..<p>If we go just a bit out of the hyper optimistic consensus of the &quot;policy making parts&quot; of the academic climate community we soon discover the frightening prospects of the feedback loops that we are not even accounting for; methane release, blue ocean event (reflection), ocean acidity threshold, reversal of ocean currents etc.<p>The first phase begins in about four to five years where we will reach the &quot;blue ocean event&quot;. The first year of the arctic being virtually ice free. This will kick in to gear a series of events we are unable to model.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;iwantsomeproof.com&#x2F;extimg&#x2F;siv_annual_max_loss_and_ice_remaining.png" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;iwantsomeproof.com&#x2F;extimg&#x2F;siv_annual_max_loss_and_ice...</a><p>The ice sheet is already having trouble re-emerging this year in the north, and this could lead to an increase more in the vicinity of 7-8 degrees at the turn of the century. Which also means complete global collapse in 10-20 years. 
And a heavy die off accelerating thereafter, until who knows what..