Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in the observable universe
So, I read this paper and was pretty unconvinced. I think the premise of using a Monte Carlo analysis is flawed because <i>of course</i> multiplying together wide ~iid distributions that have big near-zero components asymptotes to zero; unless I&#x27;m misunderstanding something, this is essentially the central limit theorem. (All of the parameter samples below 1e0 drag the total outcome towards zero since probabilities are bounded &gt;= 0)  Thus, the real information is still strongly dominated by beliefs about the width and centering of the distributions, which we still don&#x27;t know, and as long as enough of the parameters have high uncertainty with some potentially having near-zero values, the result will always tend towards zero.<p>I think what this analysis tell us is that if you don&#x27;t think it&#x27;s possible to get better, more specific values for the parameters, the Drake Equation is just a bad tool.<p>Also, the Drake Equation doesn&#x27;t describe the number of alien civilizations, it describes the likely number of civilizations. Thus, extremely pessimistic estimates have to somehow correct for the fact that we know N is not zero, since we are here. That seems like a highly informative update that is not addressed in an interesting way.