Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses
The more interesting thing about this is that it is part of a new type of economics, <i>contraction economics.</i> The global trend toward birth rates below replenishment means that first-world countries are maintaining their population growth through immigration. As some countries embrace restrictions on immigration, and ultimately all countries plateau in their population growth (projected to be around 2100) it means that the driving force behind increases in property value (population increases) will be curtailed.*<p>As we saw in 2008 curtailing or reversing growth in real-estate can have major impacts on society, but in the future this won&#x27;t be just a correction it will be a new phase of global economics. There will be <i>fewer humans each year</i> making the total pressure on land values negative. Even before that an aging workforce will cause the total working population to contract (as it already has in Japan). Everything the Japanese do with more land and fewer workers is a canary in the coal mine for the global economy.<p>One of the great predicates of modern economics (perpetual expansion) will need to be re-thought. In some ways it&#x27;s great news (more space for everyone after the great pinch of the 21st century) but in others it will necessarily wipe out the speculative aspect of many current growth markets. Contraction economics means deflation becomes a norm not an exception.<p>* Urbanization means cities will lag behind this reversal.