Ask HN: How are you preparing for the incoming recession?
The problem with incoming recessions is if everyone expects them, then everyone knows they are coming, so they price it in, then they go “well, we priced that in, so now we can go back to business as usual.”<p>It’s a reflexive system.<p>Honestly- unless something has demonstrably “broken,” such as Lehman or AIG collapsing, then nothing systemically has actually changed.<p>There is so much nonsense and speculative Austrian economic discourse every time the market hits a speed bump that you can’t actually rely on anything anyone says.<p>Here is the real test for you: “have you seen any major institutions fail, implode or go under?”<p>If not, we aren’t in trouble yet. The stock market and economy have incredible ability to make adjustments, rebalance and repair themselves when provided information and time.<p>Yes the federal reserve will raise interest rates.<p>But that doesn’t mean the entire economy will implode. It might just mean that resources are allocated from some sectors to others.<p>This information is almost entirely priced in now. Unless more surprises occur (unexpected rate hikes or rate hikes happening too fast, or more rate hikes announced or institutions randomly imploding because debt burdens too high, or Russia invades Ukraine) we are probably ok.<p>And then again; the federal reserve is not a passive actor. They might announce a rate increase, watch what happens, then change their minds if things correct too far.<p>Suddenly your Peter Schiff scenario changes under your feet as the federal reserve unleashes the flood gates after allowing a calculated cooling off in speculation.<p>So that’s it: Has anything failed yet? Any imploding banks? Did Russia invade? If not, we aren’t in crisis mode yet so just chill out and watch.<p>If you are worried about a crisis; watch for institutional failure as your signal that real crisis has arrived. Everything else is just hot air.