How Solar Power Could Slay the Fossil Fuel Empire (2014)
I&#x27;m an advocate for solar. I just want to see an honest analysis of the whole question, what does a clean global grid look like? Anyone seen such a thing? If we really switched over to solar power, we&#x27;d need storage to handle :<p>- daily load variations (example, CA ISO &quot;duck graph&quot;[1])<p>- seasonal load variations (example, Seattle has 16 hours of sunlight in summer, and 8 in winter. It&#x27;s overcast for weeks at a time in winter).<p>- unusual events, from extended weather patterns to volcanic eruptions.<p>Five nines (99.999%) is 5 minutes&#x2F;year of downtime. What does it cost to guarantee at least that, given the variations in sun (or wind) and the fact that the grid absolutely, positively, needs to supply current for any need that gets switched on, anytime, regardless of the weather?<p>Tony Seba&#x27;s big handwave is that the &quot;god parity&quot; happens in 2020 where photovoltaic is cheaper than transmission costs, so even if fossil fuel cost zero, it would cost more than rooftop PV. Ta-da!<p>Ok, for what percent of the population does that give you how many nines? What&#x27;s the complete story that handles conditions in Seattle, London, and really most of Europe?<p>Tony also likes to refer to Molten Salt Solar as &quot;baseload&quot;. Bullshit that&#x27;s just short-term load following. Useful, yes! Complete solution, no. Or can it be extended? Where can I find an honest analysis?<p>Yeah I&#x27;ve heard the other handwaves: flow batteries! existing pumped water storage! add wind to the portfolio! supeconducting transmission from deserts! LiIon manufacuturing learning curve! etc... But we need numbers, not enthusiasm.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cleantechnica.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;07&#x2F;21&#x2F;utilities-cry-fowl-over-duck-chart-and-distributed-solar-powercrying-fowl-or-crying-wolf-open-season-on-the-utilitys-solar-duck-chart&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cleantechnica.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;07&#x2F;21&#x2F;utilities-cry-fowl-over-...</a>