The Prospect of an AI Winter
I give it a 95% chance that an AI winter is coming. Winter in a sense that there won&#x27;t be any new ways to move forward towards AGI. The current crop of AIs will be very useful but it won&#x27;t lead to the scary AGI people predict.<p>Reasons:<p>1) We are currently mining just about all the internet data that&#x27;s available. We are heading towards a limit and the AIs aren&#x27;t getting much better.<p>2) There&#x27;s a limit to the processing power that can be used to assemble the LLM&#x27;s and the more that&#x27;s used the more it will cost.<p>3) People will guard their data more and will be less willing to share it.<p>4) The basic theory that got us to the current AI crop was defined decades ago and no new workable theories have been put forth that will move us closer to an AGI.<p>It won&#x27;t be a huge deal since we probably have decades of work to sort out what we have now. We need to figure out its impact on society. Things like how to best use it and how to limit its harm.<p>Like they say,&quot;interesting times are ahead.&quot;