Ask HN: Do software engineers have leverage?
I&#x27;ve been thinking about this topic a lot recently.  My thoughts are still crystalizing but this is a rough snapshot:<p>What if there are actually <i>two</i> independent markets in play but they&#x27;re masquerading as one?<p>Everyone is captivated by Big Tech (a slightly larger, more inclusive, subset which includes FAANG) pay.  There&#x27;s no doubt
any engineer would love to be making $250k+&#x2F;year.  However, this market is selecting for something very different
from the larger, common, market.<p>We need to ask <i>why</i> Big Tech pay is as high as it is.  I don&#x27;t believe it&#x27;s driven by supply and demand in the classic
sense.  Instead, Big Tech sees its candidate pool as &quot;free agents&quot; [0].  This is an important distinction if you view
these free agents as a source of potential competition, either individually or signed to another &quot;team&quot;.<p>What if Big Tech pay is a form of greenmail? [1]  Much like sports teams -- where pay is also extremely high -- the owners
are aware that they&#x27;re possibly overpaying for these people to sit on the bench.  However, their risk analysis tells
them that the cost is worth the small loss. [2]<p>This, to my mind, explains why Big Tech is focused on a very specific sliver of the engineering talent pool: graduates
from top 10 schools.  These people tick all the boxes: young, smart, fast, energetic, and <i>unattached</i> (typically). With
this model in my mind, Big Tech interviewing practices make perfect sense.  They aren&#x27;t looking for &quot;CRUD-a-day&quot; programmers.
They&#x27;re looking for those few engineers who, even under immense pressure, still rise to the occasion and perform.  This
signals that they <i>could</i> be serious competition if left alone as a <i>free agent</i>.  Note: I&#x27;m not saying that any
one of these candidates <i>will</i> become competition.  I&#x27;m sure the probability distribution is low but it <i>isn&#x27;t</i> zero.
Unlike other fields -- where barrier to entry is extremely high -- one of these hot shots <i>might</i> -- once every
10 to 15 years -- pull a miracle out of the ether and <i>disrupt</i> Big Tech to the point of destroying them. [3]<p>The other market is everyone else who uses and requires software to run their business, but software isn&#x27;t their business.
Unfortunately, this market -- if they could get it -- would just as soon buy something off the shelf instead of
hiring software engineers.  It&#x27;s only because such COTS doesn&#x27;t yet exist that this market still requires software
engineering talent.<p>However, unlike Big Tech, this market doesn&#x27;t see engineers as competition (and, generally speaking, they aren&#x27;t). This
severely limits the leverage that engineers have when negotiating with these companies. Being blunt: this market is
looking for factory workers who shut up, sit in the fishbowl, and do what they&#x27;re told. The cheaper the better. [4]<p>It seems to me it benefits Big Tech to blur the differences between these markets.  However, engineers need to
wise up to the reality of the bifurcation and plan accordingly.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.collinsdictionary.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;dictionary&#x2F;english&#x2F;free-agent" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.collinsdictionary.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;dictionary&#x2F;english&#x2F;free...</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Greenmail" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Greenmail</a><p>[2] Small loss is relative, of course.  Individuals have a difficult time understanding how this math makes sense
    because a) the numbers are far larger than they&#x27;re used to seeing and b) they can&#x27;t see all of the other numbers
    at play which balance out the strategy.<p>[3] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;oD65g2RFSHI?t=582" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;oD65g2RFSHI?t=582</a><p>[4] Yes, not every company in this market is like this.  However, it&#x27;s extremely difficult to know this from the outside
    when you&#x27;re trying to find a job.  You can try to pry the information from them during the interview process but
    this isn&#x27;t always successful.  My experience is that &quot;good companies&quot; in this market are extraordinarily rare.  Plus,
    there is always a risk that they&#x27;ll be acquired and the new overlords hate engineers.