China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict
&gt;Researchers debate how meaningful GDP rankings are<p>Basically. PRC already overtook US by PPP, 2022 estimate by IMF, PRC 29T vs US 24T with gap widening (US +1.3T, PRC +2T). This isn&#x27;t even getting into calculation shenanigans like imputed rent that pad US GDP estimates vs PRC conservative estimates, which would bump PRC numbers up another 5-10%. Or massive US money printing vs PRC trying to actively manage national debt @55% (+20% in 10 years) of GDP vs US@138% (+40% in 10 years), total aggregate debt 270% vs US 810%. It&#x27;s a matter of which indicator one wants to wank over.<p>The useful one, PPP&#x2F;international dollars, PRC has surpassed US long ago and gap is widening. And this is with PRC self imposed lockdowns, 3 redlines policy to deliberately deflate real estate bubble (which is about as wasteful as US healthcare spending), while still managing 1&#x2F;3 inflation rate.<p>E: Ultimately, it&#x27;s why PRC shifting towards quality &#x2F; tangible growth and focusing on comprehensive national power for peer (US) competition, which it&#x27;s demographically well positioned to do. Yes demographically. PRC labour force is finally seeing gains from massive education&#x2F;R&amp;D reforms years ago that&#x27;s converted sufficient proportion of work force to be competitive for pivotting towards advanced industrial&#x2F;tech development. Sufficient as in comparable STEM talent generated every year vs OECD countries combined. AT PRC population scale overall demographic trend down matters less when subsect of skilled labour pool is rapidly exploding. Realistically modern PRC miracle was built by 300-400M in coastal provinces of which small fraction (~single digit) had education to could push advanced development (i.e. MIC2025), magnitude increase in higher ed labor force is what will be driving PRC growth going forward. Think of SKR, JP, TW who all had shit tier demographics but have consistently improved technologic competitiveness simply because new generations became disproportionately STEM educated, and subsequent generations harnessed the talent to move up value chain. Yeah there&#x27;s still going to be massive income disparity with huge segments of uneducated population relegated to informal economy, but that just how things shake out with 1.4B people. It&#x27;s more important to disproportionately uplift 200-400M to advanced competitiveness than uplift all boats a little. IMO wise to forget GDP wank, focus on PRC science&#x2F;innovation&#x2F;hightech development and military aquistion. That will determine whether PRC overtakes US.