Automakers Prepare for an America That’s Over the Whole Car Thing
I wonder how low &quot;cars per person&quot; we will achieve through self-driving Uber&#x2F;lyft services? Those type of services, if cheap enough, could replace the need for cars for little trips here and there.<p>But things like commutes are harder to replace. You have everyone trying to drive all at the same time during high traffic. Traffic will only increase as people can nap during commutes because people will commute from further and further away.<p>You&#x27;d have to have a lot of extra cars that only make 2-4 trips a day due to demand.<p>Plus a large amount of car lifetime is determined by mileage. Fleet maintenance will help, but after 150k miles on average, they&#x27;ll need to be replaced. If these self driving car services are so cheap, we might increase the car mileage per person. Which means we&#x27;ll burn through cars at a faster pace than person.<p>I&#x27;m not convinced that the end of personal ownership will be all that bad for car companies. I bet it hurts midmarket luxury the hardest since nobody will buy them.