G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America&#x27;s fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this:<p>FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school.<p>SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car&#x27;s owners collect a fee from Uber, Lyft et al.<p>THIRD, economies of scale and changes in perceptions towards the utility versus cost of owning cars causes people to stop buying them. Instead, they subscribe for access to a fleet–such as Uber or Tesla&#x27;s. (Note: people already do this in cities like New York, where car ownership is relatively scarce.)<p>AND FINALLY, as distributed car ownership falls, retail locations for their maintenance go out of business. Barring massive public subsidy for car ownership, this creates a feedback loop that increases the cost of individual car ownership until it becomes a luxury.<p>1 will happen later than we expect. 2 will happen sooner, 3 much later and 4 drastically sooner. In fact, I think it will ultimately be 4, not 3, that drives a rapid, self-perpetuating dominance of self-driving cars within our lifetime.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu&#x2F;files&#x2F;2012&#x2F;12&#x2F;Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Jan-27-20132.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu&#x2F;files&#x2F;2012&#x2F;12&#x2F;Tra...</a>