The problem with p-values
&gt;The problem is that the p-value gives the right answer to the wrong question. What we really want to know is not the probability of the observations given a hypothesis about the existence of a real effect, but rather the probability that there is a real effect – that the hypothesis is true – given the observations. And that is a problem of induction.<p>The problem of induction is real and unavoidable in the general case, but there is no such thing as &quot;the probability that there is a real effect&quot;. Either there is a &quot;real effect&quot; or there is not.<p>It might be possible to find a &quot;probability&quot; that you observed a &quot;real effect&quot;.<p>&gt;The problem of induction was solved, in principle, by the Reverend Thomas Bayes in the middle of the 18th century.<p>The problem of induction is fundamentally unsolvable (hence, &quot;problem&quot;). The article just states that it was solved and never mentions it again. Is it a widely held view that induction was solved by Bayes? Does anyone know where I can read more detailed claims about how people believe Bayes <i>solved induction</i>?