Ask HN: What would happen if Russia decided to deploy tactical nukes in Ukraine?
NATO (US) - Russia deterrence model rests on nuclear deterrence, and most importantly on the fact that Russia can guarantee MAD in retaliation against US because they have a huge stock pile of them. This deterrence model is not itself changed if Russia detonates a nuke in a non-NATO country. If it were, we could just skip past that and just send nukes to their military installations right now.<p>That said it&#x27;s only a deterrence model if you have stone cold people like the people who set up the MAD system. It might break when it is lead by hysterical people and then MAD becomes &quot;acceptable cost&quot;.<p>And I make it a 0 probability event that Russia uses a nuke in Ukraine. They&#x27;re winning, they&#x27;re using limited warfare (ie. no mobilization in RF), NATO probably follows the nuclear deterrence calculus, and they see the Ukrainians as part of the Russian people (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;All-Russian_nation" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;All-Russian_nation</a>) based on Putin&#x27;s speeches.