Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math
I have zero respect for election forecasters because I think they are not any better than astrologers. Nate silver has used the word probability in a way that is not consistent with mathematical definition of probability so often in this context.<p>Taleb despite being brilliant mathematician is actually pretty mediocre when it comes to real world. A lot of his &quot;discoveries&quot; such as &quot;skin in the game&quot; are well known to economists in the form of various theories.<p>I once exchanged few tweets with him about his criticism of Pinker&#x27;s claim that we are probably living in one of the most peaceful times in human history. At no point Pinker makes a claim it was inevitable or it being the evidence that peace will continue to exist. Taleb wrote a length paper on the topic which I found to be totally incoherent. When I asked questions his retort was that I do not understand statistics.