The Next Leap in Self-Driving: Prediction
I would argue that driving in traffic is essentially a physically social activity, like a pack of wolves or a flock of birds or a school of fish moving together. There is a tremendous amount of communication happening between the individuals, but not overt language. It&#x27;s physical communication which requires empathy (i.e. seeing things from someone else&#x27;s perspective) to accurately interpret and make predictions from.<p>A simple example is to be in a lane next to a lane that ends. Everyone sees the same signs that indicate that lane is ending; everyone knows the cars in that lane are going to get over. But there are a variety of strategies for doing so: get over early; wait until the last minute; accelerate to merge; slow down to merge; use the opportunity to pass; etc. Some drivers are nervous and cautious; some are aggressive. The way the cars move on the road, the signals they provide like brake lights and turn signals, are a form of communication that you, the potentially yielding driver, can interpret and make decisions about how to deal with the merge. Or prevent it! If that is your inclination.<p>This seems like a hard problem IMO. Perceiving objects is essentially about physics--detecting and recognizing. Next step harder, making physical predictions e.g. how far a moving object will travel in 200 milliseconds. Maybe that&#x27;s enough to keep a self-driving car safe, but it won&#x27;t make it very efficient in heavy traffic (which is the norm in urban areas). To interpret intent as part of a prediction seems way harder than even that. Reminder that when humans start driving they typically have 16-18 years of continuous social learning... and even then it usually takes years to become a comfortably safe driver in traffic.<p>Of course this would be way easier if all the cars were self-driving, all at once, but that seems like a really hard way to implement this technology. I think you&#x27;d have to have a city with very strong leadership that defines a small area that is self-driving only (working with one or more private companies to provide the vehicles), and then slowly grow the boundaries of that zone.