America produces enough oil to meet its needs, so why do we import crude?
I think it is time for those in science and technology to start to demand we stop lying to ourselves.  Anyone who has reasonable command of basic mathematics, basic physics and, as a bonus, manufacturing and supply chains can do the math and verify that we are floating in a sea of lies.<p>What are these lies?<p>We can save the planet:<p>When computed as the planetary-scale problem this is, it is very easy to see that the energy and resources we would need to affect change are in a range between impossible and massive.  The scale of this fallacy is such that, even if we could do something, it is far more likely to kill all life on earth than to save anything.<p>Fix Climate Change:<p>Same as above.  At a planetary scale it is nothing less than laughable to think we can do a thing about any of it.  It takes natural processes an unimaginable amount of energy and resources over 50K to 100K years to drop atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm.  We actually have people believing in this religion that says we can affect climate change and save the planet in a 50 year time scale.  In other words, 1000 to 2000 times faster than the natural rate of change.  Nobody EVER asks them to &quot;show the math&quot;.  If they did, they could not.  This is ignorant nonsense.<p>Stop using oil (petroleum):<p>Impossible.  Impossible at a massive scale.  The ignorant among us (which is to say, as it pertains to this problem, most people) think gasoline when they think of oil.  Well, that&#x27;s not what we use oil for exclusively.  Petroleum is one of the most highly processed materials on this planet.  We derive everything from lubricants and plastics to fuel from it.  Secondarily, we derive almost everything you can touch and use in your daily lives.  Almost everything at a hospital or the company you work for.  Manufacturing of everything, from food to medical equipment, computers and clothes would grind to a halt without petroleum.  I think I can say that we could not support 7 billion people on this planet without oil and its byproducts.  In other words, once again, this is ignorant nonsense.<p>Migrate to electric cars:<p>In the US alone we have somewhere around 300 million vehicles.  If anyone with the requisite knowledge took the time to do the math, you would quickly come to the stark realization that a migration to electrics is --from our current context-- impossible.  About five or six years ago I wrote a relatively simple simulation model to try to understand this problem.<p>My model told me that we would need to ADD somewhere between 900 GW and 1400 GW of power generation capacity in order to go fully electric.  For context, we currently generate about 1200 GW.  In other words, we would have to double our capacity.<p>For further context, a single nuclear power plan produces about 1 GW.  This means we need to build somewhere in the order of a thousand nuclear power plants, or, on average, twenty per US state.  We can&#x27;t build ONE in 25 years and we are actually talking about doing something that would require a thousand of them as if it were possible.<p>I never had confirmation of my model until Elon Musk was asked this very question not too long ago.  For those who think what I just said is nonsense, I&#x27;ll let him confirm my findings and statement:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=TcI6FaaDp8g&amp;t=3510s" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=TcI6FaaDp8g&amp;t=3510s</a><p>As Elon says, it&#x27;s worse than having to double our power output.  Our infrastructure cannot handle this.  It isn&#x27;t built to carry and handle twice the power draw.  Which means we have to rebuild almost all of it.  Imagine having to replace almost every cable and transformer distributing power in the US as a starting point (it is far more complicated than that).<p>So, once again, this is ignorant and stupid.<p>There&#x27;s more, but I&#x27;ll stop here.<p>I just heard the US President go on TV and pretty much get behind all of the above, again.  The Prime Minister of Canada did a similar thing during a press conference with the leaders of UK and Netherlands (side note:  How diluted is he that he decides to talk about this nonsense when Ukraine is going on?  I don&#x27;t understand.<p>Yes, I know, these words are put in front of them in a number of cases to read off a teleprompter.  However, we keep living in this &quot;Emperor has no clothes&quot; scenario where everyone is repeating and getting behind a collective set of lies both emotionally and financially.  Lies that are easily proven to be so with some of the most basic of mathematical analysis.  And, here we are, driving society mad with imaginary nonsense indistinguishable from religion.<p>None of this is to say that cleaning-up our act isn&#x27;t a good idea.  However, the way we are going about it is to lie about both the reasons and plausibility of it.<p>Electric cars are a good idea, but we need a 50 year plan to radically enhance our power generation and delivery infrastructure.  A plan that would require a doubling of our generation capacity.  It&#x27;s like building an entire duplicate of all of the power infrastructure in the US.  Not a small endeavor.<p>While that happens oil will be crucially important.  And oil has to be CHEAP or that infrastructure will be impossible to build.  Oil has to be cheap because it is needed not just for the massive transportation requirements of all of the materials, components and systems that will go into doubling our energy production infrastructure, but for all of the byproducts that will be essential for the manufacturing and transportation industries (lubricants, plastics, etc.).<p>And so, we have the US President (and other world leaders) reading what someone else put in front of them, likely from a purely ideological perspective, while completely ignoring the fact that what they are saying, what they want to do, is absolutely impossible form that ideological framework.<p>The first thing a country like the US has to do in order to be able to reach for some of these ideas is exactly contrary to this ideology.  We have to drill, extract and transport oil from everywhere in this land.  Oil has to be $20 a barrel, not $130.  Without cheap oil you cannot have a future full of electric cars.  Which means not a chance in hell of &quot;saving the planet&quot; or affecting climate change.<p>And, yes, we need HUNDREDS of nuclear power plants.  Solar and wind can&#x27;t do it alone.  If you want to challenge that, be my guest.  Do the math on the insanely massive number of batteries and solar panels we have to produce in order to match the output of a 1 GW nuclear power plant (24&#x2F;7&#x2F;365 for 50 to 100 years).  Calculate all the materials, resources and CO2 that would be consumed and produced in the manufacturing and installation of such a system.  And then multiply that by a thousand, because we need about 1200 GW.<p>Get real.<p>We need to start to speak the truth so we can put forth realistic plans for a cleaner future.