AI and the Automation of Work
It&#x27;s not ChatGPT what we should be putting in our forecasts, but its successors. And, from what I have been reading, our AI folk are coming with better performers all the time by chaining multiple neural networks, &quot;making modular brains&quot;, so to speak. Any argument that starts by saying &quot;ChatGPT is very bad at X, humans will always do X,&quot; is flawed IMO.<p>So I think that any job that can be done by a non-human is up for grabs, but for the sake of the argument, let&#x27;s restrict it to manual jobs where being human doesn&#x27;t matter. For example, a kitchen clerk at a burger joint doesn&#x27;t need to be human, as long as it does all the tasks it needs to do and doesn&#x27;t put anybody in danger. A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. Picking up coffee cherries from a coffee tree can be done by a machine which is smart enough.<p>But assume that there are jobs &quot;high in the ladder,&quot; for amazing engineers and creatives super-charged with AI powers. The problem is that not everybody can climb that ladder. And that&#x27;s a problem we are already seeing. Right now, if you are highly qualified, you have no trouble getting a decent job. But if you are not, you are fighting for 10 USD&#x2F;hour shifts somewhere. Imagine if 90% of those shifts are gone. Compound that with our social media (and AIs optimizing for engagement there in) making our kids a little dumber by stealing their attention for long periods of time.<p>It doesn&#x27;t look good.