Ask HN: How do the recent tech layoffs affect salaries in the job market?
Economic theory can often be inaccurate for this. For example, we predict that if a state has a minimum wage and a neighboring state doesn&#x27;t, unemployment in the state without minimum wage laws will increase, because people will cross the border for the higher salaries. Turns out that&#x27;s not the reality. You have to look at real work &quot;controlled&quot; experiments to verify the theories.<p>Salaries, like real estate prices can be quite static, except when it&#x27;s a bubble of someone trying to sell something to the next sucker. If someone can&#x27;t hire someone at a specific budget, they&#x27;re more likely to not hire anyone instead of increasing the budget. Similarly, if someone can&#x27;t get the same job at the same salary, they end up getting other jobs. We see cases where actors without work become waiters instead of taking a poorly paid acting role.<p>There&#x27;s probably some point of desperation, but even then, some people are likely to take jobs at shitty startups that work them 12 hours&#x2F;day, 6 days&#x2F;week than take a pay cut.<p>My prediction is average salaries will go down very slowly. Probably 0%, a decrease compared against inflation. Maybe around 5% this year. What will most likely happen is work conditions will become worse and benefits will be cut. Many people will simply change careers. It might be like the telco boom, where people with a telco degree and experience just ended up making apps in 2010.