I've reproduced 130 research papers about “predicting the stock market”
In my view, the predominant mistake made by those who seek to create profitable strategies is that they approach trading as if the market is a zero-sum game.  In particular, doing things that harm the markets, like naively adding to existing momentum, is just promoting price overshoot and instability by reinforcing positive feedback loops.  Such approaches hurt others and while they might make money for long periods of time, they will almost surely end up losing all that profit and more during a small number of extreme market events.<p>If you want to be reliably profitable, you need to first understand how the markets are not a zero-sum game and then you need to construct methods to improve the markets with your trading.  There are countless ways that markets deviate from truly efficient behavior.  Find some and develop strategies in areas that can benefit from your cognitive, experiential, and educational strengths.  General examples of how one might improve the markets include things like providing liquidity when it&#x27;s needed, limiting price overshoots when it&#x27;s warranted, and incorporating new information about instrument values. The market will pay you in return if you do such things in a sound way.  As long as you also do a good job of estimating and limiting your risk, you can be consistently profitable.<p>There will be no significant public disclosures of detailed ways to trade profitably.  The markets rely on the robustness provided by many different points of view addressing market needs in a variety of ways.  Any parties that overweight one of those points of view will ultimately lose money in the process of adding market instability.  There&#x27;s too much of that already.  Don&#x27;t trade until you figure out how to make the markets better.