Twitter Deal Temporarily on Hold
There&#x27;s a lot of talk about how Elon is weaseling out of this. That may be true but you should know something about acquisitions. Typically there is a termination or breakup fee that one side has to pay for walking away or if the deal falls through. AT&amp;T paid billions for the failed takeover of T-Mobile [1], for example.<p>The Musk Twitter deal has a $1 billion termination fee [2] on both sides. Now it&#x27;s unclear on what conditions would trigger this exactly. In Twitter&#x27;s case, it at least includes accepting another offer. On Musk&#x27;s end, it includes if financing falls through.<p>So here&#x27;s the $1 billion question: what happens if (as Musk might argue) Twitter made material misrepresentations about their business, specifically to do with how many users they actually have? This might be an out for Musk or it might not.<p>Personally I&#x27;ve long thought there are a huge number of fake Twitter accounts and Twitter is actively disincentivized from ever finding out if that&#x27;s true or not. Put another way: they like their big numbers for active accounts, DAU and MAU.<p>But if Twitter is found to be materially misrepresenting those numbers, they have way more serious problems than if the Musk deal falls through. They&#x27;ve then opened themselves up to litigation by the SEC and investors that they materially misled investors.<p>Things could actually get really ugly for Twitter here regardless of what happens with the Musk deal.<p>If you think about it, this could be a relatively cheap way of mortally wounding Twitter. Make a buyout offer, get access to the books, prove they&#x27;re lying about DAU&#x2F;MAU, walk away with no termination fee paid, watch the executive team get sued into oblivion and the company tanks.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;money.cnn.com&#x2F;2011&#x2F;11&#x2F;24&#x2F;technology&#x2F;att_t-mobile_breakup_fee&#x2F;index.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;money.cnn.com&#x2F;2011&#x2F;11&#x2F;24&#x2F;technology&#x2F;att_t-mobile_bre...</a><p>[2]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcrunch.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;04&#x2F;26&#x2F;elon-musks-twitter-deal-includes-a-1-billion-termination-fee-on-both-sides" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcrunch.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;04&#x2F;26&#x2F;elon-musks-twitter-deal-in...</a>