How Low Can Central Banks Go? JPMorgan Reckons Way Lower
Negative interest rates really aren&#x27;t scary, they&#x27;re just unusual in an era (since early 1980&#x27;s) where inflation targeting (which is closely coupled with interest rates) of ~2% is the norm for the world&#x27;s most important central banks. Here&#x27;s a good overview from Bernanke (pre chairman of Fed years). [1]<p>In the short run, nothing will change from a day-to-day consumer perspective. Your 0.05% interest-rate saving account might drop to a 0.01% interest-rate account. If you have <i>a lot</i> (tens of millions) of money that you&#x27;d like to put in a liquid savings account, you might be charged a slightly negative interest rate. Some banks are already doing this with institutional investors, but I doubt it will trickle down into commercial consumer banking. [2]<p>Kocherlakota, an ex-fed economist whose views I respect, called for negative rates yesterday: &quot;The FOMC needs to go negative - and that&#x27;s a gigantic <i>fiscal</i> policy failure.&quot; I have to agree.<p>As he points out, low real interest rates present &quot;an incredible opportunity&quot; for US gov to make huge, necessary infrastructure investments. Read more here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sites.google.com&#x2F;site&#x2F;kocherlakota009&#x2F;home&#x2F;policy&#x2F;thoughts-on-policy&#x2F;2-9-16" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sites.google.com&#x2F;site&#x2F;kocherlakota009&#x2F;home&#x2F;policy&#x2F;th...</a><p>The only scary implication of negative rates comes from the fact that central banks do not want to go negative, but may be forced to. So they continue to lose control over once-powerful monetary policy tools. This is only scary if you put a lot of stock into a central bank&#x27;s altruism, benevolence, and ability to effectively guide an extremely complex and intertwined economic&#x2F;financial system.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.federalreserve.gov&#x2F;Boarddocs&#x2F;speeches&#x2F;2003&#x2F;20030325&#x2F;default.htm" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.federalreserve.gov&#x2F;Boarddocs&#x2F;speeches&#x2F;2003&#x2F;200303...</a><p>[2] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2015-02-26&#x2F;julius-baer-charges-institutional-clients-for-snb-negative-rate" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2015-02-26&#x2F;julius-bae...</a>