Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early: study
The NYT published a simulator yesterday that shows infections&#x2F;deaths over time according to lockdown lengths:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2020&#x2F;03&#x2F;25&#x2F;opinion&#x2F;coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2020&#x2F;03&#x2F;25&#x2F;opinion&#x2F;coron...</a><p>The first two graphs show the incredibly dramatic reduction in infections and deaths if we lock down for 2 months as opposed to just 2 weeks.<p>But what scares me is the sudden uptick at the end of the period shown. And the article addresses it:<p>&gt; <i>A skeptic will note that these measures don’t seem to prevent a surge in infections so much as delay them (in some cases so that the impact is pushed beyond the period that this model tracks). There’s something to that: We may see a resurgence whenever we let up, at least until we have a vaccine or herd immunity.</i><p>But this is what scares me. Whenever the lockdown ends, it&#x27;s almost like we&#x27;re back to square one.<p>Yes, of course we have time to manufacture more ventilators and masks and everything else. But I don&#x27;t think anyone&#x27;s contemplating a year-long lockdown until a vaccine might be ready.<p>So somebody correct me if I&#x27;m wrong, but doesn&#x27;t developing herd immunity seems like the only realistic scenario here? Which basically means just enough lockdown to &quot;flatten the curve&quot; but then essentially give the virus free reign -- accepting that people will die, but still saving many more lives than right now (because enough ventilators, etc.).<p>Yet virtually nobody seems to be talking about this -- about herd immunity, about how there&#x27;s zero chance of a lockdown eradicating the virus, about coming to terms with what &quot;flattening the curve&quot; really means and when we decide it&#x27;s been flattened enough.<p>I suppose that&#x27;s where the national conversation will have to go in the next couple weeks&#x2F;months... but it seems better to be having it up-front.