Most demographers now predict that human population will plateau
(1) Going Extinct:  In the US and likely
in all the <i>developed</i> countries, on
average the number of children per woman
is less than 2.  Soooo, in those countries
we are going extinct.  Or, the population
is shrinking.  Right, this simple fact is
made more complicated by mass immigration.<p>But, still, we have the lesson:  In a
developed country without lots of
immigration, population is shrinking.
Eventually the immigration will slow and
then the population will start shrinking
again.<p>(2) Cities.  The economies in developed
countries are heavily about just their
cities.<p>(3) Land.  The cities have a big problem:
They are short on land and have no way to
make more.  So, house prices increase.
Paying workers more will not create more
land but will likely increase house
prices.<p>Currently, in large US cities, house
prices, that is, owner occupied, single
family shelter, are too high for doing
well at family formation, e.g., wife a
<i>full-time</i> mother.<p>E.g., Dad got a Master&#x27;s, got married, got
a job teaching in high school, bought a
house, and started a family.  So, I
guessed that I should get an education,
get married, buy a house, start a family.
So, I got a Ph.D. in applied math, got
good at computing, got married, was never
able to get the down payment or qualify
for a mortgage, buy a house, or start a
family.<p>Due to the pressures, visiting at her
family farm, my wife, brilliant,
astoundingly hard worker, PBK, <i>Summa Cum
Laude</i>, Ph.D., killed herself.<p>So, she never had any children, and
neither have I.  I&#x27;m still hoping to be
able to buy a house but so far still never
have.  So, in the case of my wife and I,
due to the high costs of a house, we
didn&#x27;t have any children and contributed
to population shrinking.<p>(4) More Land.  Away from the larger
cities, the US has lots of land, without
buildings, not very good for farming, not
very expensive.  This cheap land has not
solved the problem of houses being too
expensive for family formation because (a)
the jobs are in the cities and (b) that
cheap land is too far from such a job to
commute from a house on the cheap land.<p>E.g., trying to make money enough for
family formation, I was working at FedEx.
My wife was still in our apartment in
Maryland working on her Ph.D.<p>With some computing and applied math,
twice I&#x27;d saved the company from going out
of business.  A crucial investor on the
BoD told me<p>&quot;Just keep doing what you are doing until
someone tells you to stop.&quot;<p>Looking back, I was in effect reporting to
the BoD and the CEO.  So, in the work, I
was doing very well.<p>My official <i>management</i> kept trying to
fire me (such is illustrated well in the
movie <i>Godzilla</i>).  And the promised stock
was 18 months late.  I had mostly been
working in Memphis -- my office was next
to the CEO&#x27;s (who put up with my late
night violin practice of the Bach
<i>Chaconne</i>).<p>As it was, I didn&#x27;t see a reasonably
<i>feasible</i> path from the FedEx job to
family formation.  So, maybe I needed more
education and applied to graduate school.
I was accepted at Princeton, Brown,
Cornell, and a fourth, and decided to go
to the fourth for an applied math Ph.D. I
submitted my letter of resignation from
FedEx.  On my last day, the CEO called me
to his office and said:<p>&quot;You know, if you stay, you are in line
for $500,000 of FedEx stock?&quot;<p>No, I didn&#x27;t &quot;know&quot; that.<p>The first time I&#x27;d saved FedEx was with
some software I wrote from my apartment in
Maryland -- the output from the software
resolved a crucial issue for the BoD --
that&#x27;s why in effect partly I was
reporting to the BoD.<p>Some days before my resignation I&#x27;d
outlined a project that promised to save
FedEx $millions a year in operating costs,
and the CEO had written a memo making that
MY project (implicitly reporting only to
the CEO), and I planned to do the work
also from my apartment in Maryland.  But
there on the last day, the CEO said I&#x27;d
have to work in Memphis.<p>Since the promised stock was already 18
months late and since the $500,000 was not
written down or <i>solid</i>, I didn&#x27;t trust
the <i>promise</i> of the $500,000.  And
without FedEx stock, I didn&#x27;t see a
reasonably feasible path to family
formation working at FedEx.<p>For more, my best computing, a consultant
I wanted to use, my apartment and wife
were all in Maryland.  I&#x27;d proven I could
do good work, save the company, working in
Maryland.  So, since the CEO said I&#x27;d have
to work in Memphis, I left FedEx and got
the Ph.D.<p>(5) New Solution:  (a) Still have a job in
a big city.  (b) Have a house, nice yard,
maybe a small lake or a stream with a
walking bridge over the stream, own water
well, septic tank, and drain field, use
wood for some of the winter heat.  (c)
Work from home and interact with the job
via the Internet.  (d) Occasionally drive
into the office in the city but skip this
on snow days!<p>(6) Population Growth.  With this
solution, we can do well with family
formation, and the population can grow
again.