Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars
Inherent issues with anything battery powered:<p><pre><code>    - I have 20 year old grid powered drills, saws, 
      routers, sawzalls, sanders
    - They all work and in perfect condition
    - Same period: Three sets of battery powered drills
    - Technology changes: NiCd to Lithium
    - Battery pack voltage&#x2F;form-factor EOL
    - Aftermarket batteries expensive crap
    - Good motor, gearbox, chuck discarded
    - Environmental impact of early EOL?
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The Tesla scenario:<p><pre><code>    - Will they be around in 20 years?
    - Will there be any parts for current cars?
    - Will you have access to service manuals, software and information?
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The battery packs:<p><pre><code>    - Technology and chemistry will evolve
    - No reason to make packs with 20 year old tech 
    - Will Tesla guarantee replacement packs in 10 to 20 years?
    - Could be vehicle lifetime limiting factor
    - Shame to crunch a perfectly good chassis, motor, etc.
    - Potentially significant environmental impact
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Working on electric cars:<p><pre><code>    - Most people not qualified, even most techies
    - 400~500 V DC systems are deadly dangerous
    - Electric cars will be the domain of experts, not hobbyists
    - High voltage, high power, high energy density 
      system can do horrific things in accidents
    - Who wants to be the responsible party?
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After market:<p><pre><code>    - Potential for advanced after-market companies
    - More efficient, smaller motor controllers
    - Smaller, lighter, more energy-dense battery packs
    - On-board computers and entertainment systems
    - Might not be viable market for another 20 years
    - Tesla (and others) likely not interested in doing 
      this themselves, they want to sell new cars
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Electric car market:<p><pre><code>    - In 20 years all makers will have electric cars
    - Multiple models per maker, multiple choices
    - Buying from established makers gives you 
      massive sales and support infrastructure
    - As market grows Tesla might have trouble reaching scale
    - Tesla has a 3 to 5 year window to become mainstream
    - If they fail at that they might well become irrelevant
    - Battery manufacturers (Panasonic, etc.) will support
      large car makers
    - Car manufacturers know how to make cars by the millions
    - Ford made a million F-150 trucks last year
    - That&#x27;s just one maker and one model
    - They have the factories, people, process and product know-how
    - Electric cars far easier to build than IC cars
    - Tesla might be reduced to the Ferrari&#x2F;McLaren of the industry
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Better for the environment:<p><pre><code>    - Nobody talks about&#x2F;quantifies dirty battery manufacturing
    - Nobody talks about&#x2F;quantifies dirty battery disposal
    - Nobody talks about&#x2F;quantifies dirty electricity generation
    - It&#x27;s like leather:  Process is dirty and disgusting 
      but the end product looks beautiful and clean and
      nobody thinks about how it got there
    - Where is reality of environmental impact of 100 million pure 
      electric cars when considering the entire chain of events 
      that leads to manufacturing, using and retiring one?
    - I don&#x27;t know the answer
    - Point:  Don&#x27;t be too sure you are &quot;clean&quot;
    - Maybe you are...by a little bit
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In all, today, analytically, I don&#x27;t think electrics make much sense yet.  Good for you if you are OK burning cash on one of these things.  Thank you.  I think.<p>The inflection point for this industry is 100% connected to better battery technology.  No other technology matters one bit.  We know how to make cars, electric motors, transmissions and electronics.  We need better and cheaper batteries.<p>The minute a new battery technology (super-capacitors?) emerges with twice the energy in half the volume at half the cost we will have dozens of pure electrics to choose from.  The infrastructure will be built as soon as companies can start making money with them.