The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters
Its depressing to go over all this ultra-shallow chit-chat that has short-circuited any intelligent discussion about the role and trajectory of information technology (let alone any more serious problem or opportunity of the current times).<p>Talking about AI (and AGI) as if its some xenomorph lurking somewhere in silicon, waiting for its inevitable escape from its human prison.<p>AI will not bootstrap itself with some emergent property if somebody spends gazillions of dollars and Watts to estimate petazillions of parameters.<p>Further progress is <i>not</i> going to come unless some very human brain and intelligence opens up completely new algorithmic vistas.<p>The future of AI is literally tied to the future development of <i>human</i> mental (mathematical) models around information, knowledge and its digital representation.<p>If not intuitively obvious, the history of mathematical thought development is crushing evidence that it follows its own dynamic over timescales that span centuries.