Galactic settlement of low-mass stars as a resolution to the Fermi paradox
I’ve always felt the numbers people enter into the Drake equation overly optimistic.<p>I think the odds of a planet developing life by random chance in the first place is astronomical, and then the odds of that developing into intelligent life - that happens to have the necessary appendages to build things and lives in an environment amenable to creating tech - almost certainly an astronomically small portion of life bearing planets.<p>I think people assume evolution is an inherent progression towards intelligence, but that’s not the case. It’s just a progression towards more fit, and intelligence is one of many different advantages. In the timeframe of life on <i>this planet</i>, intelligence has been the dominant apex trait for an infinitesimally small amount of time. I think it’s completely imaginable that sapiens could have easily died out to even slightly stronger or more armored yet less intelligent predators. We had a very lucky roll.<p>I could absolutely see intelligent life being less-than-one-per-galaxy levels of rare.<p>For the sake of argument, let’s argue crows, marine mammals, canines, and octopus are all in the grand scheme roughly of similar intelligence to us. The octopus is likely the only of the bunch with the necessary body type to potentially build things of any complexity, and then it’s environment is so disadvantageous to the endeavor it’s almost unimaginable they could reach spacefaring.<p>Try to imagine what a setback it would be to try to discover smelting or electricity underwater. It’s not an impossibility, but I suspect it’s inherently a small fraction of underwater societies that discover it at all. Think of how many large organized societies rose and fell in humanity, with all our advantages, before one finally happened to stumble upon the power of steam - and even then actually put it to use at scale!<p>I think it’s a fair question to ask: what percentage of our technological development comes down to our bodies being at their core a very poor fit for our environment such that death by exposure is a very real threat. We needed to invent clothing just to survive outside a temperate belt. An intelligent creature that naturally lives more happily in its environment may simply never have the need to invent in the first place.