Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]
One thing that really horrified me was how quickly people threw away the economy.<p>Unfortunately, this virus is highly contagious (to the point that the vast majority of countries won’t contain it) and fairly lethal. We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know.<p>At the moment, we just reduced our GDP by 30%-50% in regions under quarantine. Think about that for a second...<p>Now consider the fact that the supply chain is also all kinds of messed up and with the loss of jobs people have less money.<p>Finally, save this, but I don’t think the US quarantine is going to do much to lower the curve. Simply put, the west is not prepared. Our checkouts are run by people without masks or gloves. People still are closer than 2 meters (or 6 feet).<p>To lower the curve we’d need strict quarantine (no leaving the house) for a month or two. Even then we won’t have enough masks, hopefully we’d have enough ventilators and tests by then...<p>Point is, we are tanking our economy and mark my words — it won’t work. People voted, had spring break, celebrated st. Patrick’s day went out shopping in droves. It’s likely too late, one sick per household and they infect the whole house.<p>All this to say: we are losing our economy and probably this isn’t effective.