The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters
Nowhere do they define &quot;AGI&quot;. I guarantee that is a big reason why the predictions have so much variance.<p>For many people, what GPT-4 does qualified as AGI -- up until GPT-4 came out and then everyone seemed to decide that AGI meant ASI.<p>I am guessing for many people answering this poll it means &quot;a full emulation of a person&quot;. Or maybe it had to be &quot;alive&quot;.<p>The thing that irritates me so much is that there is this lack of definition or moving of goalposts and also stupidly people seem to assume that AI can&#x27;t be general purpose or useful unless it has all of those animal&#x2F;human characteristics.<p>GPT-4 is very general. Make it say 10-20 times faster, open up the image modality to the public, and you will be able to do most human tasks with it. You don&#x27;t need to invent a lot of other stuff to be general purpose.<p>You DO need to invent a lot of other stuff to become some kind of humanlike digital god. But that is not the least bit necessary to accomplish most human work output.