Electric Vehicles Are Going to Suck; Here's Why [video]
Disclosure: I work for GM, anything here is solely my own opinion and experience.<p>I broadly agree with the motivation for the talk and many of the ideas presented, here&#x27;s some more context from my point of view:<p>Screens break. Nothing critical should ever be in a screen. Buttons and knobs work and are replaceable. (again my opinion, if you love your screens, good for you)<p>---<p>This talk reminded me of the saying &quot;they don&#x27;t make them like they used to&quot;. I heard this saying very often when I was growing up in the 1980&#x27;s and 90&#x27;s. You don&#x27;t hear it much anymore. People could repair cars from before the 80&#x27;s. They also HAD TO repair cars from before the 80&#x27;s, because a lot of stuff wore down quickly or broke.<p>It was much harder for individuals to repair cars from the 80&#x27;s, and even harder in the 90&#x27;s, and you still had to repair them, because a lot of new systems were added that weren&#x27;t fully baked. In this time frame, it made sense to say &quot;they don&#x27;t make them like they used to&quot;. If you rewind to the 70&#x27;s, people could also say the same, because cars in the 60&#x27;s were better than cars in the 70&#x27;s - the oil crisis hit, insurance hit cars with too much horse power, smog systems were mandated, and a few more things really did make cars worse from a consumer perspective.<p>But then in the 2000&#x27;s, we worked out the computers and metallurgy and paint and coating processes and cars really did get better. Horsepower went back up, and fuel efficiency went up at the same time, which is frankly a miracle of engineering and deserves recognition. The computers managing ICE engines are pretty good now, actually, and so are materials and build processes. Even most plastic parts are pretty good now.<p>I&#x27;m glossing over quite a lot of important detail, but my point is, I don&#x27;t hear &quot;they don&#x27;t make them like they used to&quot; very much any more.<p>---<p>I don&#x27;t know if manufacturers will voluntarily use the same standards, but Software Defined Vehicles are coming. Currently, cars are built with on the order of 50 electronic computer modules, and those modules are like appliances. You plug it in and it does what it does. There is some capability to flash the modules with parameters or sometimes firmware updates, but most are not programmable.<p>Software Defined Vehicles (SDV) will provide manufacturers an API that supports upgrades, so you won&#x27;t have to find a module in 2035 that was only available in 2022-2025 or whatever. We&#x27;ll see how it actually turns out.<p>---<p>Quirks and Features. I have a whole rant about quirks and features. Today&#x27;s feature is just something that will be broken in 5 or 15 years. A new BMW is much more affordable than a 15 year old BMW (rabble rabble rabble).<p>It&#x27;s hard for companies to compete on durability, because today&#x27;s durability is not apparent. Durability from 10 years ago is apparent. There are engineering trade-offs everywhere, and not just malicious or &quot;value engineering&quot; either. Lighter cars accelerate faster (yay) and use less fuel (yay), but reducing mass may weaken parts.<p>---<p>EVs in junkyards - I don&#x27;t think you&#x27;ll see EVs in junkyards at a higher rate than ICE cars. Quite a lot of components from EVs can have a second life in industry or consumer applications. The batteries can be home power backup. The motors can be used in many applications. The parts can go to repair other cars (like normal).<p>---<p>I think EVs are going to be really good in about 15 years. Bear in mind that the traditional automotive lifecycle is 5 years, so 15 years is a long time, but only 3 generations of vehicle product platform.