What I Learned from Losing $200M
The thing is, people believe these guys because they come up with sophisticated stuff that looks like science fiction. It&#x27;s science fiction, then it must bring lots of money, right?<p>This stuff works this way:<p>1. I come up to you and tell you that we can make risk-free* money by insuring (simplified all the BS) the price of oil for the government of Mexico. Isn&#x27;t that sweet?<p>2. I come to the government of Mexico and tell them that they can forget about price variation and the risk of it going down. We are going to insure it for you!<p>So what happens?<p>1. The price goes up, or stays the same. We make money. I become rich. You make some interest on your capital. We celebrate. I write about it. I write a book about it. How we made lots of money and beat the hell out of the market.<p>2. The price goes down, really down. You lose money. You lose your capital. Your money simply disappears. I don&#x27;t celebrate. Maybe I consider changing careers. And sure thing, I&#x27;ll write about it. &quot;How it all went wrong&quot;. And yeah, I still become rich.<p>well. Quite a world we live in.