Ask HN: Are we in tech-stock bubble?
Responding to the question, and the comments:<p>It could be worse. Much worse. It could be the great depression, caused by massive shrinking in the money supply. Nobody likes growth in the money supply (well, ok, debtors do). But, it&#x27;s better than a shrink. Or as Ray Dalio sorta says, a beautiful deleveraging.<p>Yes it&#x27;s a bubble, defined by everyone saying it&#x27;s not a bubble. Is TSLA justified - no and yes. Purely monetarily, no. But in relation to all it&#x27;s competitors yes. They&#x27;re all FUBAR. Most of them don&#x27;t have a clue about either EVs or self-driving. They are horse carriage companies in the age of the Ford Model T.<p>Relative to their competitors, yes, TSLA should be ahead as a measure of future growth, or future ownership of the transportation sector. There is little doubt how clueless their competitors currently are. But it&#x27;s still arguable TSLA is ahead of the curve a little.<p>Will TSLA come down? Different question. Now they&#x27;re in the S&amp;P 500 this isn&#x27;t simple. Probably not. If you transpose or invert the question - who will challenge TSLA? Crickets. Silence. That&#x27;s why TSLA is so highly valued. There is nobody even close. LOL NKLA.<p>Will tech stocks come down? Yes, but there&#x27;s many ways to think of it. Will covid end? Yes, this too shall pass. tech stocks will come down but relative to what? The dollar? Maybe. But more likely everyone else will catch up a little.<p>Stepping back - let&#x27;s ask a better quesiton. Who&#x27;s long tech stocks? What would you bet tech stocks go up (a dollar? 10 dollars? 100 dollars..?). These questions are better asked as bets or about current positions.