The great thaw of America’s north is coming
I live in southeast Alaska, and climate change frightens me here as well.<p>Our area, a temperate rainforest with steep mountains rising almost straight up from the ocean, has always experienced landslides. You can see slide scars throughout the mountains, from a boat or from a plane. But in recent years we&#x27;ve had a few that cause people to be much more concerned about the possibility of being caught in a slide.<p>Two years ago there was a slide in town (Sitka) that killed three people. Before that there was a slide that took out a remote cabin, and the two people staying at the cabin barely outran the slide. Now every time it rains hard people talk to each other about the risk of slides. Meteorologists&#x27; predictions haven&#x27;t helped much, because most slide forecasts are just general statements about an elevated risk of slides for the entire region. No one can predict a high likelihood of slides in particular locations, so everyone is left to evaluate the risk for themselves in deciding whether to stay at home during heavy rain.<p>We live in a rainforest, but most of our rain comes from light steady rain most of the year. We have some heavier rainfall events in the spring and fall. It seems the slides have happened during periods of intense heavy rain - 2+ inches over the course of several hours.<p>What scares me about climate change is what might happen if we end up with significantly heavier amounts of rainfall in short periods of time. What happens if we get 6+ inches in a day like we&#x27;ve seen more recently in other regions?<p>When I get a lull between my various projects I&#x27;m going to do some analysis of our long-term weather data, and try to correlate it with slide events. I&#x27;m curious to see if the rainfall patterns are changing over time, beyond just total amounts each year. I&#x27;m curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven&#x27;t noticed yet.