What Does Evergrande Meltdown Mean for China?
The risk here is that China will follow in the footsteps of Japan.<p>Throughout the 70s and 80s it looked like Japan was the future. They made all the latest cool gadgets, and were buying up forgegin assets. Cyberpunk novels were set in the high tech mega-hub of Chiba City, a district of Tokyo famous for it&#x27;s gadget shops.<p>The massive real estate collapse in the 90s ended all that, and when I visited Chiba around 2000 for work the bit I went to was a drab business park. Two decades later Japan is still mired in debt. Japanese nation debt is 234% of GDP. China&#x27;s is 270% of GDP. The USA has 100% of GDP.<p>As long as China&#x27;s growth rate offers a chance of growing out of that debt hole all looks rosy. If growth slows significantly, or if debt keep pace with growth until that happens, they could find themselves in deep trouble for a very long time.