High-Tech can’t last: there are limited essential elements
Someone pointed out the differences between &quot;ecological&quot; and &quot;economical&quot; thinking years ago, and I wish I could find the blog article again.<p>The basis was that &quot;ecological&quot; thinking assumes that things will stay the same until they dramatically collapse, and that systems cannot adapt to changes in circumstances.<p>While &quot;economical&quot; thinking assumes that there is a constant tension between supply and demand, and that as something becomes rare its price goes up and the system adapts to it.<p>This paper is classic &quot;ecological&quot; thinking. It assumes that there are no other alternatives to the minerals used at the moment, and that therefore if the supply of (e.g.) Cerium is disrupted then the supply of iPhones will be disrupted. It doesn&#x27;t allow for &quot;Cerium was the best of three options we had, because of reasons x and y, and price z&quot;, so if Cerium becomes a problem, then the second best option will be used instead. Yes, the price will go up, but that&#x27;s an adaptation not a limit.<p>It also doesn&#x27;t allow for alternative sources of the minerals. I know there are deposits of rare earths in Australia, which aren&#x27;t being mined at the moment because it&#x27;s not economical to do so. But if China starts messing with their supply, it will become economical. This happens all the time (there&#x27;s a rash of new Lithium and Cobalt mines in Australia because of the tech industry&#x27;s need for them).<p>Likewise it assumes that because we currently have cheap fossil-fuel-derived energy to mine with, that mining is not possible without abundant cheap energy. If the price of energy goes up as the coal mines are shut down, then the industry will adapt and find other, more energy-efficient solutions.<p>Just as &quot;life finds a way&quot;, economic systems find a way. Yes, there will be collapses and corrections, and on an individual level those can be disastrous, but as a system it endures. High tech is going to last.