A case for ending lockdown
Ryan since you have asked for comments here are some from me.<p>1. The true IFR is hard to estimate at this point, but looks to be around 1%. This is a very difficult question to answer with the data we have and all the limitations.<p>2. There is little evidence that we can reach herd immunity levels of infection with a Coronavirus like SARS-CoV-2 as both the unconstrained R0 is too high and the immunity too short lived.<p>3. The IFR has a threshold where it dramatically increases when the number of new cases overwhelms the hospital capacity. We have seen this to a certain extend in Wuhan, Northern Italy and NYC.<p>4. As treatments improves the IFR should fall. This mean if we can shift an infection to the future we should see less people die. Flattening the curve is more than just avoiding overwhelming the hospital system, it is also about shift cases to a time when we have improved treatments.<p>5. Sweden has shown that it doesn’t matter if you have an official lockdowns or not, most people will self isolate on their own. There is little extra economic damage from imposing official lockdown policies since all the damage is done by people avoiding infection on their own.