A Failure, but Not of Prediction
I like a lot of what is said in this piece.<p>Background: I am currently supporting myself by betting on politics and economics. I was caught jobless when this thing hit, halting my attempt at a career switch into either coding or data science. At the end of February I posted my first forecast for 200k cases by March 20th, giving it a 96% chance.<p>I feel like there exists the possibility of doing better, and there exist people who are already there but no one wants to listen or change.<p>Watching this thing since the start of the year has been like watching a preventable slow motion crash, where many people seemed to be trying their hardest to intentionally fail.<p>Let&#x27;s not just blame the MSM or &quot;elites&quot; either. I speak to people who confidently assert everything is going to be fine in a year, and when pressed for a probability it&#x27;s not even in top quartile. Even if it was 90% certain, a 10% chance of a significantly negative outcome is too high.<p>I can open any thread on HN regarding economics and the general level of arrogant ignorance is staggering. We&#x27;re on target to massively screw up the economic relief, which will make the economic stimulus phase all the more challenging. People need to be more predisposed to having possible intellectual and knowledge blind spots.<p>But I&#x27;m not all negative, as I remain very optimistic that people will continue to ignore reasonable warnings.