All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong
What I&#x27;ve noticed about models, or at least when people are talking about them or trying to prove a point about them, is that people forget models are a simplified version of a specific part of reality, much the same as models of airplanes or something.<p>No matter how many variables you include, you can never capture the utterly massive and unpredictable amount of variables that exist in reality. But they&#x27;re not supposed to. They&#x27;re tools that are supposed to be used to help get an idea about how something might happen, that&#x27;s marginally better than just guessing, due again to models always being incomplete, despite any amount of best efforts.<p>Like any tools, using models incorrectly, fucking around with them until you just get what you want to see or using the wrong one for the wrong task can be potentially dangerous, especially when those models are used to guide large decisions with serious consequences and impacts.<p>Reasoning and common sense need to be used alongside models and if the models don&#x27;t seem to reflect reality, the problem is with the model and not reality and the model needs to be adjusted or thrown out otherwise continuing to use it will just lead to lousier and lousier decisions.