No More Bold Visions of the Future
&gt;<i>Recent years have shown me how difficult it is to make any meaningful public decision. Every debate is endlessly contentious, every subject has meaningful nuance, and every decision has exceedingly hard-to-predict second-order-effects. The world is much more complex than it was even twenty years ago, and the effects are paralyzing.</i><p>I would disagree that the world is much more complex than it was twenty years ago. The increase in complexity is perceived rather than actual. Just like more reporting of crime creates more awareness of crime that existed before but was unreported creating a mistaken awareness of more crime. On most indicators the world has gotten better and more free and more democratic. This matters for the next bit of reasoning.<p>I would posit that what has happened is that second order effects are now more visible like the crime that was not reported and is now reported. More democracy and access to media means that second-order effects sufferers are more likely to make a kerfuffle and bang the equivalent of pots to get attention whereas previously the big decisions were just rammed through.<p>A Hoover dam would probably not be built now because the communities affected are more empowered and have the resources to mobilize political opinion. I dont even know how much opposition the Hoover dam faced when it was built if any. Similarly it is far harder if not impossible to build Nuclear power plants because surrounding communities will raise hell. There is also far more understanding of the second order effects. They always existed but we were just unaware of them.<p>I am not saying this is a bad thing or a good thing just pointing out that you are conflating <i>awareness</i> of second order effects with the <i>existence of more</i> second order effects.