How Long Before Superintelligence? (1997)
[Regarding power of artificial intelligence] &quot;...If Moore&#x27;s law continues to hold then the lower bound will be reached sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the upper bound between 2015 and 2024.&quot;<p>I guess his prognostication here depends on super-powerful computing and brain-emulation software. China&#x27;s Tianhe-2 has already hit 3.3^15 ops, Bostrom was anticipating for 10^14 - 10^17 to be the runway. Now, I am not sure what the state of brain emulation is at the moment but it looks like our biggest snag is there. Researchers are having a hard time bubbling up new paradigms for artificial intelligence software. Anyone have any insight into that?