New Glenn’s Progress Towards Maiden Flight
I really hope that SpaceX gets some serious competition by another partially reusable rocket. We need multiple viable launch providers in the market.<p>I don&#x27;t think this will happen, but that announcement reads a lot like delay announcements that shadow a future cancellation. (&#x27;we continue to remain committed ...&#x27;, &#x27;persuing other opportunities&#x27;, &#x27;growing market ...&#x27; (it isn&#x27;t) ...)<p>There are two aspects here:<p>A) With the way Blue Origin operates, I highly doubt New Glenn can be competitive with Falcon 9 &#x2F; Falcon Heavy financially, at least without heavy discounts funded by Bezos. More so once Falcon Heavy gets the upgraded fairing they are developing for government launches.<p>Blue might still get some business from the US government and from Starlink competitors that don&#x27;t want to help fund Spacex, but the market seems very limited. We are already at a point where Falcon 9 can handle most payloads, and there are no commercial use cases for larger payloads on the horizon.<p>Which brings me to the second point:<p>If Musks claims for Starship regarding cost and reusability come true, no one will be remotely competitive with that rocket. It&#x27;s in a whole different league with a huge payload capacity and full (1st + 2nd stage) reusability.<p>Starship has a chance of reaching orbit maybe late this year, but more likely in 2021. The question is if Bezos will be willing to pump billions into Blue Origin for the 4+  years until they can catch up with their own second generation rocket, currently nicknamed New Armstrong.<p>A first New Glenn launch would probably mean start of scheduled service in late 2023, at which point Starship might already be launching regularly.