In Defense of Missile Defense
The article touches on this in an off-hand dismissive line, but anti-missile technology <i>is</i> destabilizing.<p>If the anti-missile system is effective, then it allows for a first strike without retaliation.  I.e., anti-missile systems are offensive weapons.  The largest constraint against using nuclear weapons in a first strike is removed for the party with the effective anti-missile system.<p>Even if it doesn&#x27;t work well, or at all, you now need your adversary to believe that you spent billions on an ineffective weapons system.  If your adversary is not convinced of this, then they have every incentive to react to (possibly false) alarms sooner.  Incidents like the following might have ended differently:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nsarchive.gwu.edu&#x2F;briefing-book&#x2F;nuclear-vault&#x2F;2020-03-16&#x2F;false-warnings-soviet-missile-attacks-during-1979-80-led-alert-actions-us-strategic-forces" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nsarchive.gwu.edu&#x2F;briefing-book&#x2F;nuclear-vault&#x2F;2020-0...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;01&#x2F;13&#x2F;us&#x2F;false-alarm-missile-alerts.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;01&#x2F;13&#x2F;us&#x2F;false-alarm-missile-al...</a>