Tesla's market cap now accounts for roughly 1/3rd of the global automaker market
it&#x27;s a bet that tesla <i>will</i> convert their marketshare into real production numbers. The bet is based on assumption that entire market will shift to electric cars in 5-10 years. To give you understanding the current numbers. In 2020 tesla will deliver ~19% of what BMW delivers. BMW probably is the most direct traditional competitor. Luxury sport segment. 25% of audi and 5% of what toyota delivers.<p>To keep this valuation assumption in place, tesla can lose a lot of market share and only &quot;keep&quot; 20%-30%.<p>In this case it will outsold any other car brand and will outperform it&#x27;s valuation.<p>They could remain their share higher. In this case they are undervalued.<p>They obviously can loose competition to traditional players, but also to emerging Chinese brands. Musk himself consider them a bigger competitor.<p>The market itself can shirk a lot, due to robotization, in this case you don&#x27;t have to own a car in most of the cases. In this case the entire market will be changed dramatically and current valuation doesn&#x27;t make any sense.