Show HN: Web search using a ChatGPT-like model that can cite its sources
I asked three clearly stated, graduate level questions in my field and all three answers were useless.<p>&gt; what is the relationship between commodity prices and civil war? answer in a way that cites published scholarship.<p>&gt; The relationship between commodity prices and civil war is complex. Research has found that a negative, one-standard-deviation commodity price shock in a single year can increase the risk of civil war outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa by between 40% and 70% of the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. This holds true for all large countries in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia. Additionally, there is evidence to suggest that a rise in international commodity prices may also lead to an increase in civil wars. For example, research published in the May 2010 issue of the Economic Journal found that a 10% increase in the price of international commodities was associated with a 22% increase in the probability of civil war outbreak in African countries that are big exporters. Furthermore, research from Oeindrila Dube and Juan F. Vargas of Universidad del Rosario concluded that “price shocks generate contradictory pressures on conflict.<p>This definitely synthesized information, but it&#x27;s nonsense. The beginning of the thesis is that a negative price shock increases civil war risk. Then it suggests a positive price shock increases civil war risk. Then it concludes that price shocks generate contradictory pressures on conflict. Dube and Vargas is a famous paper, so it was correct to cite it.<p>If the answer is that research is mixed, specify that. If the answer is that the research is unambiguous but it depends on the location or commodity type, the answer should disambiguate.<p>&gt; are ideologically extreme candidates punished in u.s. house of representatives elections? what about primary elections?<p>&gt; No, ideologically extreme candidates are not punished in U.S. House of Representatives elections. In fact, there is evidence to suggest that extremism may actually be rewarded in some cases. For example, the landslide defeats of Barry Goldwater and George McGovern in presidential politics have been seen as evidence that American electorates punish extremism. However, this view is thinly supported by systematic evidence. Additionally, there will be at least one special election to the United States House of Representatives in 2023 during the 118th United States Congress. This suggests that ideologically extreme candidates may actually benefit from these elections.<p>Another nonsense answer. The first sentence appears to gesture to the finding in the Zaller et. al research linked. Then it plagiarizes another sentence from the abstract of that paper. Then it introduces a completely nonsense non sequitur and uses it in support of a point that is not in evidence. It never answers the second question at all. The papers linked are all relevant, but not sorted by any useful metric and there are major papers not listed.<p>&gt; what are the disadvantages of using two-way fixed effects to measure treatment effects in a natural experiment<p>&gt; The two-way fixed effects regression  is a popular method for measuring treatment effects in natural experiments. However, it has some drawbacks that should be considered before using it. First, the model does not account for heterogeneous effects between groups or over time, which can lead to misleading estimates. Additionally, the LSDV  estimator is inconsistent for a dynamic panel data model with individual effects, whether the effects are fixed or random. This means that the bias of the LSDV estimator in a dynamic model is generally higher than other estimators. Finally, the 2FE model may produce biased estimates due to the fact that it only adjusts for unobserved unit-specific and time-specific confounders at the same time. Alternative estimators such as the instrumental variable approach or the difference-in-differences approach may provide more accurate estimates of treatment effects.<p>First three sentences are fine. Fourth sentence introduces an estimator that is not previously defined, probably by plagiarizing one of the source papers. The point starting with &quot;finally&quot; is a restatement of the limitation under &quot;first&quot;. The instrumental variable approach is another econometric technique but it is not a substitute for 2WFE. D-i-d is most commonly implemented as 2WFE as an estimator, and so it is also not a separate technique.