Major uncertainty revolves around the TPP’s successful ratification
The Congress will get every shred of legislation they can suck from the desperation of the Obama Administration to have it pass. No legislator wants to have their name on the bill before elections, especially without official support from the head of parties. So it&#x27;s only going to happen, even though basically everyone in the hall of Washington want it, if there&#x27;s enough collateral or safety in it for each of the signees.<p>If it doesn&#x27;t pass in the Lame Duck it&#x27;s likely to be fielded in the first couple years of the next administration after it gets established, likely with some face-saving side legislation &quot;oh with this economic stimulus (e.g. TPA) or additional clause regarding currency manipulation suddenly the TPP is a great deal!&quot;<p>The establishment know that TPP is about national power - economically containing China by isolating it from major trading partners. Soon it will begin to field this in a &#x27;PR friendly form&#x27; (&quot;US has to write the rules or China will&quot;) to US citizens through official statements and press releases, in the hopes of getting broader appeal by more explicit support for it&#x27;s most significant features.<p>I think it&#x27;s really likely to pass, though not without a groaning and distrustful public - who will view the TPP (much because its true) - as a measure for the economy that further concentrates wealth, protecting and empowering the industries, technologies and investments that are already at the peak of the domestic economy - while forcing those at the lowest to compete for space even more.<p>The TPP I don&#x27;t think is falling apart so much as it&#x27;s starting to have to see a little real sunlight, because the public hasn&#x27;t bought into the &quot;Free Trade&quot; (TM) labeling it carries. Few understand that the alternatives to the TPP pushed by China (CREC, etc) are also - in fact probably even more in the most traditional sense - &#x27;free trade&#x27; deals; instead they have a basic idea that the TPP isn&#x27;t exactly what Washington says that it is and that the machinations about how it&#x27;s going to be good for the US economy doesn&#x27;t mean that the &#x27;goodness&#x27; will be charitably and judiciously applied across the economy.<p>Ultimately we&#x27;re in for some pretty interesting stage productions out of K Street for the next few months.