Future of EV vs. ICE
Funny how these articles are written by individuals who have never worked in the industry - the author is totally clueless.<p>Okay, let&#x27;s start with money. Zoom out to a population view and do $1000 USD increments from $1000 to 100,000. The median&#x2F;average ASP for a new vehicle in the U.S. is $36,270 - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mediaroom.kbb.com&#x2F;2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-Rise-Nearly-4-Percent-For-January-2018-On-Shifting-Sales-Mix-According-To-Kelley-Blue-Book" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mediaroom.kbb.com&#x2F;2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-...</a>.<p>That is not going to increase very much year over year, because wages are largely stagnant and the economy is peaking. The U.S. is way over overdue for a recession,  European GDP is anemic (0.3% growth in Q3 2018 - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ec.europa.eu&#x2F;eurostat&#x2F;documents&#x2F;2995521&#x2F;9102849&#x2F;2-07092018-AP-EN&#x2F;5ee25c3b-4e58-40df-9be9-7671859d6f37" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ec.europa.eu&#x2F;eurostat&#x2F;documents&#x2F;2995521&#x2F;9102849&#x2F;2-07...</a>) and China GDP is 6.5% (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;10&#x2F;19&#x2F;china-q3-gdp-china-posts-economic-data-amid-trade-war-with-us.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;10&#x2F;19&#x2F;china-q3-gdp-china-posts-eco...</a>), but China always lies, so it&#x27;s probably around 2% or 3%. That&#x27;s not even taking into account that Chinese consumer debt for mortgage holdings has increased eight-fold since 2008 (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.zerohedge.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;2018-11-10&#x2F;nightmare-scenario-beijing-50-million-chinese-apartments-are-empty" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.zerohedge.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;2018-11-10&#x2F;nightmare-scenario...</a>). The Chinese consumer is tapped out, which is why for the first time in 31 years, Chinese vehicle sales have actually decreased year over year - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.autoblog.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;11&#x2F;09&#x2F;china-car-sales-fall&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.autoblog.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;11&#x2F;09&#x2F;china-car-sales-fall&#x2F;</a><p>So your vehicle ASP isn&#x27;t going to increase in the next 10 years - it&#x27;s probably going to decrease. Total unit volumes in the US will probably go from 17 million units to 11 or 12 million units by 2025.<p>You&#x27;re trying to tell me the industrial CapEx required for the OEM&#x2F;supply chain to switch over EV powertrain in a period of falling vehicle sales and deflationary prices for the second largest purchase a consumer can make, after a home, for the two largest automotive markets (the U.S. and China)? Bullshit.