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More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Laura Nowzohour
Livio Stracca
Laura Minu Nowzohour
Economists, observers, and policy‐makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper, we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we give an overview of the recent literature on the nexus between sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty) and economic activity. Second, we review existing empirical measures of sentiment, in particular consumer confidence, stock market volatility (SMV) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), on monthly data for 27 countries, 1985–2016. Third, we identify some new stylized facts based on international evidence. While different measures are surprisingly lowly correlated on average in each country, they are typically highly positively correlated across countries, suggesting the existence of a global factor or sizeable international spillovers of sentiment. Consumer confidence has the closest co‐movement with economic and financial variables, and most of the correlations are contemporaneous or forward‐looking, consistent with the view that economic sentiment is indeed a driver of activity.
Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:34:y:2020:i:4:p:691-726
DOI: 10.1111/joes.12354
File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12354
File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/joes.12354?utm_source=ideas
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E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
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