Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!
By Perfect Storm,
September 11, 2020 in League 1, 2 & Scottish Predictions
Location: Lancashire
Here's one for the early birds, a 50/1 chance that's starting to look like an odds on chance.
The Bookies have Bolton Wanderers as 5/1 favourites to win League 2, their reasoning being that Bolton wouldn't have been relegated last season if the club hadn't gone into Administration, but they did, 12 points were deducted, the trap door opened and down they went, that was bad enough but this doesn't help.
On 21 November 2019, Bolton were handed a five-point deduction, suspended for 18 months, and fined £70,000, half of which was suspended for 18 months, for failure to fulfil two fixtures (against Brentford and Doncaster). The points would not be deducted if Bolton fulfil all fixtures during the 18-month period.
So if the club goes into Administration again they wouldn't just have 12 points deducted it would be 12 points plus the 5 above, put it this way, a 17 point deduction would have relegated 9 teams in the Premiership last season, that's how bad a 17 point deduction would be.
But what's the odds of Bolton going into Administration again, would you offer 50/1 if you weren't a Wanderers Fan ? the question is, what could trigger the trap door to see the club relegated again, give this some thought. The club and the adjoining hotel were bought out of Admin last August for around £17.4 million by a consortium headed up by local millionaire businessman Michael James, multimillionaire Sharon Brittan and a couple of smaller players. At the time there were four Directors, but within just a few months two of decided to walk, to Football Ventures is now down to just two Directors, Michael and Sharon, that's the absolute Legal minimum for a company to operate in the UK.
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/11761052/officers
Football Ventures took over the club and the hotel last August, no clouds on the horizon then, the attendance at the club has kept the club afloat for years, chances are the hotel was doing well too, but Covid changes everything. Future Ventures have to find £59,000 a month towards the hotel at a time when hotels are struggling, it doesn't help that Bolton is now the epicentre for Covid, so chances are the hotel won't be bringing in much money. If that's not bad enough, there's no gate money right now, games are played behind closed doors, that's going to put a lot of PRESSURE on a lot of clubs in every league not just BWFC.
The arrangement with Quantuma, who oversaw the administration of the Bolton Whites Hotel, and David Rubin and Co, who undertook the football club administration, has been secured with club assets. It also included an agreement with Quantuma to defer some payments during lockdown while the hotel was not in operation, with the process set to resume shortly at a reported cost of £59,000 a month.
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/18687275.bolton-wanderers-owners-say-will-pay-3-5m-bill-avoid-efl-penalties/
Owning a Football Club is a Vanity Venture for Billionaires these days, Millionaires can soon find themselves out of their depth.
Looking at who's who in League 2, last season just 5 teams of the 24 teams averaged more than 5,000 per game, that's OK if the overheads for your club are as low as Macclesfield, Crawley, Morecambe, Stevenage, Cheltenham and the like, but which club in League 2 do you think has the highest overheads, chances are the bike shed at Bolton is bigger than the Stand at Morecambe, are any teams carrying more debt ? BWFC owe HMRC over £1 million. I don't know about you, but I've lost count already !!!
So where does the money come from to keep the club going, I suppose Michael and Sharon could keep pumping money in, or look for a wealthy Russian or a wealthy Saudi, good luck selling League 2 to them.
Is that 50/1 on offer for Bolton to be relegated into oblivion looking over the odds yet ? I don't think the Bookies considered any of the above, chances are they are thinking a League 1 club playing in League 2, but the team isn't what it was last season, it's now a lads and dads team, youth players and a few can I say OLDER players, that can work, but so far it hasn't clicked, it's P5 D3 L2 and in the process Bolton got beat at home by Bradford City a team who hadn't won away since October 2019 !!!
I fear that Bolton's team look more like Fray Bentos than Juventus, I don't see them doing well in League 2, certainly not well enough to have 17 points deducted and survive the drop. No doubt the Loyal Fans think the Wanderers will come straight back up, but I fancy the Titanic will come back up before the Wanderers do.
The writing will be on the wall if they don't beat Forest Green this Saturday, that 5/1 to win the league might soon become 50/1 and the 50/1 against being relegated will soon be rubbed off the boards. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/relegation
Perfect Storm.
PS: in case your wondering, my money is on already...
Edited November 3, 2020 by Perfect Storm
harry_rag, Zico10, froment and 1 other
bookiebasher 20 posts
Alley Cat Glover 49 posts
yossa6133 8 posts
Perfect Storm 167 posts
Aye, well, the devil is always in the detail, so it should help folks if you give them the detail, plus an insight into the logic and discipline that I deploy. Betting is a COLD / HARD game, one
Here's one for the early birds, a 50/1 chance that's starting to look like an odds on chance. The Bookies have Bolton Wanderers as 5/1 favourites to win League 2, their reasoning being that Bolto
Hello Stevie, Am I a Wunderers Fan ? no, is the short answer, having said that I've been to a lot of their games in the last 50 years, more than a lot of fans have been to. The reason being, I
Bolton 0 Forest Green 1 🤣
Could you ask for a better start, if memory serves me well it's now 19 games since Bolton actually won a game !!!
I couldn't believe that the terminals in Hills were still offering 50/1 against relegation this morning. I shoved 20 quid into the terminal, it took the bet straight away, so I tried another 20 quid, and got the "your bet has been referred to a Trader" thing, I was sure they'd knock it back, but they didn't, the "Trader" {they'd love to think of themselves in pin striped shirts, cigars and braces, when all they are is a Bookmakers Clerk} took the bet. I think I'd be wondering why someone / anyone wanted a 40 quid relegation bet on the team they have as 5/1 Fav's to win the League !!!
What price now to Top, or Drop, out of League 2, and land in oblivion. Obviously the Bookies hadn't thought through the prospect of the Wunderers going into Admin again, having 17 points deducted, this isn't last years team, it really is "Lad's and Dad's" now.
I wonder how long it will be before the Bookies cotton on ?
I'm guessing the relegation odds will soon be slashed, you can bet that 50/1 has been rubbed off the boards already. I hope some of you chanced a few quid on the bet, after all a tenner wins you a monkey. The only reason I registered on here was to give you guys a heads up.
PS: Bet365 were still offering 50/1 at 7pm tonight, hard to resist that, so I went for a tenner, got it, then went for another tenner and got that, odd how they took these bets as I've already a fair amount on the same bet with Bet365. Maybe the "Traders" don't look at the bet, maybe it's just a computer program ?
1 yr StevieDay1983 changed the title to Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!
StevieDay1983
Location: Ystrad Mynach, Wales
Are you a Bolton fan, @Perfect Storm? Welcome to the forum and it'll be good to see you posting more about how you feel Bolton will perform. Always keen to have fans of clubs covering their own teams. No better source of knowledge!
Hello Stevie,
Am I a Wunderers Fan ? no, is the short answer, having said that I've been to a lot of their games in the last 50 years, more than a lot of fans have been to. The reason being, I grew up in the midst of them, some avid, or should that be rabid FANatics. If you were born and bred in Westhoughton you were dyed in the wool as a Wunderers supporter. But, due to living next door to Fred "Punchy" Griffiths the full back for Wigan RLFC my wool was dyed in a different colour, I've always been more into Rugby, League and Union. Add to that a lifelong buddy of mine played RL "in the day" is the father of the Best Defensive Coach that Wales ever had, he's now coaching in foreign fields, I'm sure you know who I mean, "Mr Rugby League" in the 1990's.
The thing is, I can watch and enjoy either of the three games, but one thing I learned FAST was that the Fans are different, if you talk to most football fans about the upcoming game you get the standard responses, if Bolton are playing a crap team the fans don't say "we'll mop the floor with them" they say, "well, Stevenage are having a bad run, but they aren't a bad team, AND, they ALWAYS raise there game when they play us". That's JUST to cover their embarrassment IF Stevenage, Rhyll Academicals or some obscure team turns them over, that's bred in the Wunderers Fans, mind you, it's the same with a lot of other football teams.
On the opposite side of that coin is, if you went, in the day, to what was Central Park and asked Wigin's Fan's how they thought the game against St Helen's would go there'd be no precooked excuses offered, the Wigin Fan's would tell you "we'll bury the Saints" that didn't always happen, but when Saints won the Wigin lads took it on the chin, none of that "well, we were the better team, they scored against the run of play, the Ref and the wind and the pitch were against us, on and on that shyte goes".
Add to that, the violent attitude that "some" football fans have against the fans of who they are playing today beggars belief, some of them would prefer to put you in hospital than shake yer hand if your team beat them. You don't want to be stood in the wrong stand with your club colours on at a football match, yet I (and others) have stood in the middle of Saints Fans with my Cherry & Whites on when I couldn't get into the Wigin end, and NEVER had a problem, the worst you got from those surrounding you was a grimaced look when Billy Boston went ore the line for a try and Punchy converted, same grimace that we had when "the Flying Van Vollenhoven" put one down ore our line.
I put that attitude down to football being a game of frustrations, 90 minutes of stress, begging and praying that your team will score, suffering the agony of tuther team putting one over on you. Rugby is different, it's a high scoring game, often with almost what turns out to be a point scored for every minute (or two) played in the game. But as mentioned above, I can watch and appreciate both games.
Turns out that in the 60's I was rubbing shoulders with some illustrious sportsmen, Punchy Griffiths, Francis Lee (ex Man City), I knew Franny well used to have a drink with him now and again. Franny lived in a thatched cottage in Westhoughton, right next door to Peter James, father of Michael James (now part owner of BWFC). So one way and another I had a foot in both camps, went some weeks to watch the Wunderers other weeks with the Wigin lads to watch Punchy kick more goals (again) than Neil Fox of Saint Helens, they were ALWAYS the top two in the goal kickers league table in the Sunday papers...
One I learned FAST was never listen to what a football team fan has to say about how the game will go, I lost a fair bit of money doing that. My "sport" is having a bet, I don't "bet for fun" it's no fun losing money, you need to know more about an even than the Bookies know, don't bet until YOU have the edge, that don't happen often, you just need the discipline, something that most punters DON'T have, as the old adage says "Bookmakers don't live in Council Houses".
I don't mind waiting weeks or longer before I wade in, lads I know say "I can't afford to bet with the stakes you put on" the truth of it is, they are often loosing £200 to £500 or more a month, but they "can't afford" to put £100 on South Africa to win the RU World Cup at 9/2, I had a grand on that, most of my mates back England (no matter what sport they are competing in), that's just about the worst betting strategy to work with. If you are a FANatic you can't see anything other than your team, the Bookmakers love it...
Betting is a HARD game, the games "may not" be rigged, but the odds are, 12% to 15% in the Bookies favour as soon as you slide your cash over the counter. Here's a RULE that I picked up on from Gus Demmy (Bookmaker & Boxing Promoter, in the day), I knew Gus well too, Gus told me the "secret" of betting, that being "The more often you bet, the more often you lose, the less often you bet, the more often you win". The logic being, if yer only betting a couple of quid a time, you don't really care what the Fav is in the 2:30 at Redcar, you just NEED YOUR GAMBLING FIX !!! you stand there all day sticking that 2 quid needle in until the pain and the money has gone.
If you quit betting in damn near every race, every day, the way the addicted masses do you're halfway there, just bet once a week, you can afford to place bigger stakes, that in itself doesn't guarantee that the horse or whatever will win, but if you've gone from losing a tenner a day, frittered away at 2 quid a time, and you can't even remember what you backed during the day, or WHY you backed it, other than, WELL, IT WAS THE FAVOURITE 😞
So if you don't squander a tenner a day away on asking yer mates "what do you fancy in this race" just because you need a 2 quid FIX, soon enough Saturday will come round and you'll have 50 quid in yer ass pocket (itching to get out), but, 50 quid is 50 quid, yer unlikely to be asking what yer mate thinks of the 2 year old selling handicap at Ripon. You might fancy a bet on Saturday, but you have to ask yourself is it worth chancing 50 quid on ? often as not you'll decide it's not, so the sequence starts again on Monday, forget about that "good thing" at Plumpton, stay with the DISCIPLINE, if you can, by the next Saturday there's 100 quid waiting to get out.
The point that Gus was making was, if you're betting 2 quid here and 2 quid there, you WILL get skint, yer addicted to "gambling" and that's gambling against dice that are LOADED against you. But, IF you bet less often, HOPEFULLY you will be more careful on what you bet on, HOPEFULLY you will do your homework, HOPEFULLY you will find something that the Bookie doesn't know, then the odds will be in your favour, all you need is what most folks DON'T have, DISCIPLINE.
Gus was right, and I learned from him, met Gus at Salford Dog Track in the 60's when he stood the rails there, a character if ever there was one. Bookmakers then were men who would take your bets without "speaking to a Trader" they weren't AFRAID of risk, but this lot now do their utmost to avoid risk, if you win consistently they either Ban you, or limit your bets to an amount they know you can't be bothered with, so you place the bet with someone else, that's exactly what they want, been there done that...
These stuffed shirts aren't even called Bookmakers now, they call themselves Turf Accountants, note the Accountant moniker, anything that an Accountant gets their paws on goes rotten real fast, the less I say about that the better, but it's easy enough to find how these leeches set up Offshore Accounts for the Billionaires who don't fancy paying Tax, anyway, being careful not to digress, I'll stay on track.
Brings me back to "knowing what the Bookies don't know" getting an advantage over them, knowing what I know, being on the inside track re the Wunderers and the folks holding the hot iron right now I was astonished to see that 50/1 was being offered against the Wunderers being relegated into OBLIVION, so I filled my boots with it.
The thing is, the Wunderers AREN'T last years team, they've gone, it's a new team, a Lad's & Dad's team, a team that will take a while to gel, that's IF they ever gel, so on their ability (or lack of it) they could drop through the relegation trap door, but...
We have two horses in this race, the second one being if Football Ventures owners of BWFC can't pay their way. WHERE does the money come from to keep the Hotel and the Club afloat ? they have to find £3.4 Million to pay off existing debts less than 12 months from now, plus £1 Million to HMRC, plus £59,000 a month / 2,000 quid a DAY interest on the mortgage for the Hotel, how much business do you think the Hotel is doing right now, Bolton is the epicentre of Covid right now, and is likely to be that way for months. The Hotel doesn't seem to be an asset to the Club right now, in fact I'd bet it's a bloody headache. I guess FV (Football Ventures) could sell it, but, who to ? who's looking to buy an Hotel in Bolton right now. Other than that, where is the money coming from to pay for the football side of things ? how long do you think it will be before the turnstiles are clicking again ? would you fancy carrying to Club until the Fans are allowed back ?
It's not often you can find an edge against the Bookies, I don't think they have taken the above into account, so I took a few £1,000 to £20 bets, once I'd "got my money on" I joined Punters Lounge simply to give you guys a heads up, the more folks the Bookies have to pay out the happier I'll be, that's why I'm here... As mentioned, it's not a certainty that the Wunderers will be relegated, but I wouldn't be laying 50/1 I wouldn't lay better than Evens, knowing what I know. It wouldn't surprise me if Football Ventures throw the towel in before Christmas...
As mentioned owning football clubs is a VANITY VENTURE for Billionaires, Millionaires can soon find themselves way out of their depth.
Torque, Like A Roughie, MABS and 1 other
We're going to have to offer you a publishing deal at this rate mate!
On a serious note, I like your approach to betting. Looking forward to your thoughts on Bolton's future games this season.
MABS
Aye, well, the devil is always in the detail, so it should help folks if you give them the detail, plus an insight into the logic and discipline that I deploy.
Betting is a COLD / HARD game, one that few people manage to break even on, let alone show a profit, and if you do show a profit the algorithms that the Bookies now employ will soon root you out and kick you out. No one runs a tighter ship with their algorithms than Bet365 or Billy Hills, but all the Bookies are at it.
I've served my time betting, had some memorable wins, but over the last 50 years I guess I've burned £250,000 possibly more, does that sound like "betting for fun" to you ?
Knowing how hard a game betting is I try my best to steer young lads away from it, one of the lads in his 20's that goes in the pub I drink in always asks me if I'm having a bet, ever since I put him onto South Africa to win the RU World Cup, he had 200 quid on at 9/2 and since then always asks if I'm having a bet. I try to slow him down, but when yer young you want it now, patience doesn't run in their race. We walked into Billy Hills yesterday to get a few more quid on the 50/1 shot, I was already well invested on the bet, but I couldn't resist throwing another 20 quid on it, a grand to 20 quid is warth taking, Jim had the same. I'm amazed that the odds are still there. Anyway, as we went in I asked Jim "which one of these ragged assed owd men would you like to be 40 years from now". I think he got the point..
They, like me, were all Jim's age 40 years ago, they started out with nothing and, thanks to Betting Shops they still have most of it left. None of them ever looks back as what this addiction cost them over the last 10, 20 or 40 years, more than their house is worth for some of them, but almost certainly more than they have in a bank account after a life time of grafting.
It's not even as though it's "easy come, easy go" most folks in my generation worked / grafted for their wages, so it never was "easy come" but due to the addiction that gambling is it certainly is easy go, never to be seen again. The Bookies are RUTHLESS those machines they put in their shops they have cost some folks their every penny they had, some even went into debt to continue getting their Fixed Odds Terminal Fix, sadly some lost more than their money, some lost everything and finished up topping themselves. I wouldn't touch FOBT's with a barge pole, they are the crack cocaine of the Betting Shops, thousands of lives have been ruined due to FOBT's.
Knowing how RUTHLESS Bookies are I put my "work" in where they don't look. When Saturday rolls around I scour the non league games looking on Twitter for teams that are struggling to put a full team out, without having to call on the coach driver to play in goal or the turnstile man to play centre back, and Office Staff just to make the team up, that actually happened one memorable day. You might remember when Merthyr Town couldn't put a team out a couple of years ago, thanks to Twitter I'd picked up on that Friday night when FEW IF ANY folks outside of Merthyr had heard what was going on, I spent 2 hours backing Chesham {WHO ARE YA} who the **** had EVER heard of Chesham !!!
Most of the online Bookies had a £200 limit on the game, but I hammered them all to whatever limit they had. I was up with the larks Saturday morning putting £100 here and £100 there in the shops until the Bookies cottoned on and started dropping their prices from 11/8 Chesham to 1/3 I even bet them at that. It was pathetic for Merthyr, they were 4-0 down in 15 minutes, and 9-0 down by half time, if memory serves me well Chesham were winning 12-0 when the Chesham supporters were shouting "let them get a goal" they did the decent thing the game finished 13-1. The Man of the Match award was given to Merthyr's 15 year old goalkeeper !!!
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/crisis-hit-merthyr-town-humiliated-13921420
That result got my accounts closed with 7 Bookmakers, they were hissed off because I knew what they didn't, that's the only way to win, now and again, but you have to wait for events like that, most folks don't have that discipline, they NEED their FIX.
Good as it was {to get one ore the Bookies} there was a more memorable bet, a three horse race headed by Little Owl the horse that had at one time won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, race in a 3 horse race, against Venture to Cognac {a good but past his best chaser} and Great Dean, a decent jumper but I could have done 3 miles faster in my day.
The betting was 1/3 Little Owl, 7/2 Venture to Cognac, 150/1 Great Dean, have you any idea what the Computer Straight Forecast would be in Little Owl didn't finish the course, are you ahead of me yet ? a bunch of us put fivers on here, there and everywhere, can't say why 😉 but here's what happened...
"The 1982 Fulwell Chase at Kempton Park appeared a mundane contest. True, the Gold Cup winner Little Owl was in attendance but he faced only two rivals in Venture To Cognac and Great Dean. "Venture To Cognac had some useful form to his credit but had become injury-prone and was considered to need the run. As for Great Dean, he had been pulled up at lowly Fontwell and needed a miracle if he was to win such a valuable prize.
"Little Owl was sent off the 4-11 favourite, Venture To Cognac 7-2 with Great Dean appearing for all the world a lost cause at 150-1. "As far as winning the race was concerned, Great Dean was virtually friendless. On the course and in the betting shops it was only the odd `just-for-fun' merchant and habitues of the `outsider-of-three' system who gave him even a moment's consideration. "Or so it seemed. But dotted about the country were a handful of shrewd punters who had spotted the chance to make a killing on the race. A chance, that's all. Those shrewdies didn't expect to pickup but knew exceptional value when they saw it.
"And what a killing! Not only were these punters expecting to receive odds of around 150-1 on their bet, they were also gleefully awaiting the chance to make fools of the big bookmakers. "For once, the bookmakers had made a `rick' and a mighty serious one at that. "The mistake was in the format for the then relatively new Computerised Straight Forecast (CSF), which allowed for inflated dividends should a long-priced outsider make the frame in a small field.
"The Fulwell Chase offered an ideal chance to exploit this loophole. All it needed was for Little Owl to fail to complete the course (as he had done at Cheltenham on his previous start) and this would enable Venture To Cognac to win with Great Dean hopefully putting in a clear round to come second.
"The race went entirely to script for these backers. Little Owl leading by 10 lengths with just 3 to go, then coming to the second last and seemingly going well, he swerved and was pulled up by jockey and part-owner Jim Wilson at the 10th.
"This left Venture To Cognac clear of the already tailed-off Great Dean a full fence behind. The former sauntered round to win by a distance and Great Dean, with forecast backers holding their breath, Great Dean went over the last like a spider, one leg at a time, completed in his own time to earn a place in the history books.
Jim Wilson reported that Little Owl's bit had reportedly slipped, but the bookmakers were not happy, especially when they realised the extent of their liabilities. "Payment was held back while BOLA and the racing authorities carried out an investigation into the race. No evidence of any misdemeanour was produced and the bookmakers, suitably chastened, eventually paid out.
"They also called in their computer people to change the format of the CSF to avoid such inflated dividends in small fields in the future, and the result was what is disingenuously referred to as the `Harmonic formula' for producing CSF dividends. Today, if Venture To Cognac were to beat Great Dean in identical circumstances, backers would receive odds of only 15-1. But on the day the CSF paid £75 to 50p I had 30 quid on the bet, all in all between me and the lads in the White Lion we had £75 on the bets and we cleaned several Bookies out that day. These events are rare birds, but you never forget how sweet the meat was...
All in all, REMEMBER what Gus Demmy told me, the less often you bet, the more often you win, if you want to get an edge, do yer homework...
Gary66, bookiebasher, Zico10 and 3 others
Many thanks for the heads up, Perfect Storm .
Have only just read this but still manged to get a bit on at 50/1 (Hills on line 12 PENCE offered). Still a bit available with Unibet.
Your posts made for excellent and interesting reading. It was good of you to take the trouble.
I was reminded of a great killing about 10 years ago when it was not widely known that Weymouth players were refusing to turn out in a Conference home match against Rushden & Diamonds. It was possible to load up on both fixed odds and spreads before the bookies got wind. Weymouth kids lost 9-0 at home!
harry_rag and StevieDay1983
bookiebasher
BET365 have taken down the Relegation odds on Div 2 now
harry_rag
Still some 50/1 for us "Johnny punt latelys" and 40s 888. Hills also offering 15/2 for a bottom half finish which doesn't seem bad in lieu of the above.
Hello Labrador,
Labrador hey, the dogs were bred there to help the fishermen in Dory's get their boats back onto the beach, looks like I've digressed already 🙂
Hills, hey, 50/1 to 12p diabolical, they obviously don't want any more money on the Wunderers being relegated, I've taken a grand to 20 off them a few times, some of that on line, some in the shops where the Managers know me and doing me a favour they didn't PTL, but it didn't take them long to get a few quid on via Oddschecker. Other than "over the counter" I started putting tenners on with the terminals, just tenners, and not "one after another", "tenner in the morning, tenner in the afternoon, tenner at suppertime" sort of thing, same thing next day. Also managed to get a score here, a score there, then repeat the process the following day with Bet365 and Paddy Power.
All in all I managed to get 400 quid on, at that point I thought I'd join Punters Lounge to give you guys a heads up, as mentioned it's not a certainty, but if someone offered me 50/1 to a grand this afternoon I'd take it. I know the die hard Wunderers Fan{atics}, spoke to one of them last night, socially distanced of course, distanced by about 30 upwind miles from Wu Flu Central. One thing he said that stuck in my mind was, "if this years team played last years team they get a drubbin". Bear in mind that last years team got relegated, partly due to the deduction of 12 points by going into Administration, but it begs the question, lets take it that this years team aren't much more than 20 odd disjointed players, if that's not bad enough they definitely a Lads & Dad's team, one that's winless since they were formed, that doesn't bode well.
Then ask yourself why did the Wunderers go bust last year, then ask yourself are they {FV / Football Ventures} in better or WORSE shape this year. They have about £5 MILLION in inherited debt to pay off in the next 10 months or so, that's £500,000 a MONTH just to service the DEBT. Add to that, from what I understand the mortgage on the hotel is £59,000 a month !!! The hotel is still open, with all the overheads that incurs, do you fancy a weekend in Bolton right now. What would you do with the hotel, keep it open of shut the doors, that's a balancing act that even Blondin wouldn't fancy.
The question is, this horse went lame last year, do you think it's in better or worse shape now. I feel sorry for Michael James, he's a decent bloke, I wonder if he would have invested £5 Million in this VANITY VENTURE if he'd know the hotel was in the shape it is now, and that there's no sign of the turnstiles opening this year, or maybe before the end of the season.
WHERE does the money come from to just service the debts, let alone break even. A "friend of the James family" another Westhoughton lad, went down the same street years ago when he {Franny Lee} put £3 Million into Man City, that didn't go to plan either.
Glad that you've enjoyed my missives, it would be a bad sign if you were old enough to be on the "run in" of life and you dint have a tale to tell.
Hello Bookiebasher,
No surprise there then about Bet365, hard to believe a company worth a Billion or more is afraid of losing a few grand, wtf...
Bookmakers aren't what they used to be in the 50's and the 60's folks like Gus Demmy would set the odds the way he saw them and he'd take everything you could throw at him, it was his judgement vs yours, it didn't always work out for Gus, but when he lost we knew he had the bottle to stand his ground and to pay up with a smile, maybe a grimaced smile, but Bookies in those days were men of character not the mealy mouthed weasels, wearing striped shirts and braces, smoking cigars as they tell their latest one nighter that they are a Trader for Billy Hill, these weasels have watched too many movies...
Hard to believe that a company worth over a Billion would sweat about a few grand, that's greed, nothing "sporting" in that, the b*ggars have no bottle at all...
Anon {sort of}.
22 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Harry Rag !!! Blimey you must be older than me 😉 just 🙂
I presume you refer to Harry Wragg ?
That 15/2 looks a knocking bet, I'll see what I can get on at that price, thanks for the heads up on that...
15 minutes ago, Perfect Storm said:
You're welcome, thanks for sharing in the first place. Prices still there online I see.
No, I'm a few years your junior if you were rubbing shoulders with Franny Lee in the 60s and my "handle" relates to the Kinks song of the same name (it being Ray Davies' father's slang term for a cigarette, I believe).
I suspect I was listening to the Kinks a lot when I signed up on here so I could just as easily have been David Watts or a well respected man!
Hi Perfect Storm. You can digress as much as you like about labradors 😀 - the best companions in the world (don't tell the wife). My present black lab was 1 year old earlier this week, drives me mad but keeps me sane.
I see you're also a fan of Pete and Dud. I still like looking at the (sadly too few) sketches on You Tube where Pete is constantly trying to make Dud crack up with laughter.The Art Gallery sketch is presumably known to you - ducks in the morning, ducks in the evening, ducks at suppertime😂.
Digression aside, I've had to have a bet on Colchester to beat Bolton tomorrow. Around 7/4 looks a bit of value.
Have to agree with you {sort of} about Labrador's, hard for me to discriminate for or against any breed though, I've definitely been a dog man, from a corgi, to our last dog Sam a Lab/retriever that we rescued from a dog pound. Sam was with us for 10 years before he died, neither me nor the Mr's could even mention his name for months after that, and we decided that we couldn't go through that again as we were getting older, so we haven't had a dog since, until we moved back almost 9 years ago, moving in next door to a 3 year old Staffie, not the sort of dog that I would ever have fancied due to their {undeserved} reputation.
Oddly enough though dogs are psychic, Lexie would look through the fence when I was in the garden and melt me with that look that a dog can give you. I finished up walking her for the neighbours, up to 5 or 6 miles a day, sharing a pie somewhere along the way, calories in, calories out, next thing she didn't want to go home when we got back from our walks, what more can a dog ask for, an adventurous walk along the beach, a pie each, then dropping into a pub along the way, a pint for me and a lot of fuss from thowd lads in the pub.
That's gone on for almost 9 years now, to the point that Lexie has two homes now, at the end of each day she decides where she's sleeping and everyone is happy with that, the folks next door are 20 years younger than us, still working, so they can't give Lexie the time we can afford her. Have to say she's been wondering what's going on recently, why all the humans have been muzzled...
I know what you mean about "don't tell the Mr's" about who's yer best friend, every dog that I've had from my Mum's corgi to a Boxer, a mixed breed rescue dog, through Sam and now to Lexie would give their life for me, and they know I would do the same. Do you know how to figure out who is your best friend, your wife or your dog ? put them both in the boot of yer car, leave them there for 20 minutes, open the lid and see who is happiest to see you.
There's something special about dogs, it's hellish when you get to that age where you can't get another dog because you know their grieve for the loss of us as much as we grieve for them, thank Gawd this little beggar next door picked me out through the garden fence.
As for tomorrows Colchester bet, 7/4 seems over the odds, but I'll shy away from it, it would be double jeopardy for me to get involved in a "who wins" bet, but I might be tempted by a BTTS bet, but just an "ale money" bet...
PS: well spotted about the duck sketch !!!
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On 9/18/2020 at 11:59 AM, harry_rag said:
Hello Harry,
Aye, Franny is a couple of years older than me, haven't seen him since he moved out of Westhoughton, he was born 4 houses down the street from where my Mrs lived. Franny was and probably still is a decent bloke, a bit fiery now and again, I remember when his car {being driven by his Mrs} was pulled over, she was shall we say "worse for wear at the wheel". When the Police arrested her Franny blew a fuse, a Norman Hunter moment, Franny finished up being locked up for the night, there's one for Eamon Andrews.
I guess Harry Wragg was before your time then ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Wragg
YEESSSSS...I just opened an account with William Hill and got another score on at 50/1.. In fact i was a bit cheeky and threw in B.MUNICH to win their league, EVERTON top half finish and NORWICH top 6 finish for 105/1..
yossa6133
Hi Bob (yes, even Dr Watson without Sherlock Holmes would have you sussed by now😎).
Our last labrador, Archie, was nearly 14 when he died just over 12 months ago. We were in bits but collected our latest labrador 2 months later as an 8-week old puppy. Staffies can be brilliant companions - their mixed reputation is usually down to how the owners treat them. Sam and Lexie evidently enrich(ed) your life so much.
I do vaguely recall the pig manure story of several years ago - nice to have contact with the enterprising guy who freaked out the Tote! Any chance you could organise another pile to send round to William Hill for me - not to mention Betfred, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Sean Graham, Victor C, Sportingbet and all the other so-called bookmakers who either close your account or won't take a bet💣 .
Try this one - Jose Mourinho is having yet another general moan (I actually have some sympathy this time). Spurs will have to play 9 games in 21 days starting from Everton last Sunday. They had an unconvincing 2-1 win in Bulgaria on Thursday, travel to Southampton today, play at Leyton Orient in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, Europa League again Thursday, Newcastle at home next Saturday etc etc..........................
It wouldn't totally surprise me if he jacked in the Carabao Cup. Leyton Orient are generally 4/1 for Tuesday's tie, but 17/2 with skybet. Worth a modest dabble for me (or a bit of "ale money").
Hi Bookiebasher,
Glad to hear you got on with Billy Hills, I'm not sure about that treble strategy, both look good bets, but it only takes one of them to slip up and yer 50/1 has evaporated. Having said that, one of the lads I drink with managed to get another score on via the FOBT he was sure it wouldn't take a grand to 20 so he made it a treble, Ireland to beat Italy and England to beat Italy in the 6 Nations games in October, both games were 1/33 or so, but the terminals look at a treble not at a single bet and think it's not unexpected to lay a grand to 20 on a treble, anyway it laid him the bet, so {being a RU fan} he's thrilled...
Bob.
I know what you mean Bob..But sadly thats the story of my life... And yes your right as theres normally one that lets me down..Usually the shortest odds selection that ive thrown in to boost the odds.. C,est la vi.. But i have done Bolton in a couple of singles also with Bet365 so lets keep our fingers crossed and hope they go down..Although it wouldnt be good for the town/city though hey.
Yep, you've got that right, once a dog man always a dog man...
Hmmm, if he's short of players I'll stand goal for them, all I need is 15 minutes to make a couple of phone calls. I'm not bad in goal,
Thanks for the heads up, I'll have a look at it...
Hello Bookiebasher.
There's no room for sentiment in Betting, having said that, I do have a soft spot for the Wunderers and their fans, the soft spot I have is in my heart for them, the problem is, their soft spot is in their heads, they can't see, or don't want to see what's coming, I'm damned sure that if Michael James had seen Wu Flu on the horizon he wouldn't have bought into the Club.
Between Michael and {many irons in the fire} Sharon, I'm sure that given the opportunity they'd bail out, but where's the parachute, there is none. Gawd help them if Wu Flu finds its way into the team, they really would be knackered if they had to play the coach driver and the turnstile bloke.
As for today, I'm hoping for an early goal from Colchester, first 15 minutes would be nice, nothing like smashing yer opponents confidence, especially when they are already on the ropes, so I've 50 quid to win 40 on BTTS, that'll be enough for me, I don't want to go in heavy or even jinx my main bet, but there'll be no one happier than me if Colchester put 4 past the Wunderers...
I hear along the grapevine that their Manager has made team changes, maybe the coach driver and the turnstile bloke are playing ?
Good call on that 7/4 against Colchester, lift a pint for me then 😉
That's 6 points that the Wunderers have dropped so far, let's hope they keep up the good work.
Gawd knows what that 5 hour ride back from Colchester will feel like tonight, and who's blaming who.
At this rate Bob they wont need to go into administration to go down.. 😆
Can't beat having two strings to your bow though.
The weird thing is how the Bookies got this so wrong, putting the Wunderers in as 5/1 Favourites to top League 2.
I just had a look at BetVictor, they {seem} to still be offering 50/1 {maybe to a penny} but according to their web page if you sign up and pay up with a tenner they'll give you 20 quid in Free Bets, as long as what you bet on is better than 2/1, too good to be true that...
Edited September 19, 2020 by Perfect Storm
Surprise, surprise, BetVictor laid me the 50/1 and let me put my "Free / Signing Up Bonus £10" on the bet as well, so that's £1,000 to £10 !!! I'm amazed they took it, that's 100/1 to my tenner...
Bolton Wanderers @50/1
Stake Potential Returns
Alley Cat Glover
1 hour ago, Perfect Storm said:
Thanks, gone for that, seems like a fair shout. See Newport are over 12/5 to beat them next week as early prices are up. Looks like they have invested in strikers that can score at that level, but young keeper and inexperienced defenders, midfield where is the lad they signed from Plymouth Sarcevic, captain, I believe, played against Forest Green, not in the squad yesterday? Be interesting to see which way it goes this year. Not sure if there may be several clubs that may struggle to stay afloat this season though, be interesting if there is any money coming from the promised land of the Premiership to help.
I think you are right that a lot of clubs are already in trouble, but, none of them have such an expensive stadium plus an Hotel to carry on their backs, if that's not enough try adding £3.4 Million of inherited debt. Add to that, no club is carrying a heavier points penalty than the Wunderers, if things come unstuck they will have 17 points deducted, not 12.
If Newport beat them it'll be "ask not for who the whistle blows", it won't be blowing for the end of the game, it'll be blowing for of the end of the Wunderers and I mean oblivion, who wants overheads for the stadium, the hotel and inherited debts for a team playing in League 2, there'd be no point in the Wunderers playing Non League.
They / FV could sell the hotel off, but, who wants it right now, a hotel in a town with the worst Wu Flu infections in Britain !!!
FV aka the Sharon & Michael show paid £17.4 Million for the Club and the Hotel, expecting that both would generate revenue, but what's the Club and the Hotel worth now with neither of them making what FV expected ???
What I want to know is, where's the day to day, week to week income FV need to cover overheads, wages, etc coming from. I can't see anything that could be sold right now, they'd be lucky to give some of their players away, let alone sell them, it will be interesting to see how all this pans out.
What would you do to get out from under, would you put more of your money into what seems to me to be a sinking ship ?
Seems like a Perfect Storm to me...