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- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is ATL v PHI at 220 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAC v DAL at 210 points.
I really like the top-tier plays tonight. If Embiid doesn't play, I'm going to like both Simmons and Harris at the bottom of this top-tier, and I also definitely like Kawhi and Luka as well. I would get as many of these guys into your lineup as possible, and then fill out your lineup with some of these low-tier guys. Most of them have solid floors (as they're locked in for their bench minutes), but I really like a few of them to potentially hit their ceiling tonight (especially a guy like Huerter if Hunter sits). In terms of value, I think the top-tier is definitely where to look tonight, so build your lineup with that in mind. I'll probably start by locking in Kawhi and Simmons, and then optimizing around them and working from there.
As I said a couple days ago, I'm going to continue to go to Kawhi if he's going to be under this 10k threshold. He's shown what he can do when the pressure is on, and it's clear he'll take the matters into his own hands if he needs to; he put up 45-3-6 in game 6 and looked every bit of his MVP-caliber self. Tonight, in an incredibly important game 7 for the Clippers franchise and Kawhi's legacy as a whole, I expect him to come out with a similar level of aggressiveness and intensity.
Either with a limited Embiid, or without him completely (in my opinion more likely), Simmons should be the catalyst for PHI tonight. He should be able to get the ball off the glass and run immediately, and I think we could definitely see a triple-double from Ben tonight. In terms of the matchup, I feel like Simmons should be able to exploit ATL's lack of size. I'm not sure who will guard him, but he'll probably have a height advantage on whoever it is, and regardless, he'll probably find his way into some post opportunities on Trae Young. That's bbq chicken.
I would've put Tobias here if I knew that Embiid was sitting, but either way, I also like Luka today. He played a passive game 6 in which he deferred a little too much to his teammates throughout the game, and I think he'll respond tonight, in a game 7, by coming out aggressive as ever. He definitely watched the film of game 6 and wasn't pleased with his lack of attack, and I definitely think you have to expect a bounce back game from him. Furthermore, everybody's exhausted from a long series, and I think Luka is the one that takes advantage of that the most.
1. Seth Curry ($5,100)
I could imagine Trae Young starting out on Seth Curry, which would mean I bet the Sixers would try to run Curry off of as many screens as possible; tiring out Trae is the best chance the Sixers have of slowing him down offensively, so I think they attack him on that end. Without Embiid last game, Curry put up 30 points, and I could see him doing something similar again tonight if Embiid sits (or plays and isn't himself). Curry can have plays run for him at times, so it gives them another guy (without Embiid) that they can play through.
Clint Capela should be in a decent position to exploit the front line of PHI. Either Embiid plays and is hurt, in which case Capela should attack him on the glass and outwork him, something he probably would've done if Embiid was healthy. If Embiid sits, PHI will not have anyone that can deter the lob threat of Capela, and I would expect him to see a lot of action around the rim for that reason. He's a walking double-double, and I could see him having a better series against PHI than he did against NY.
3. Tim Hardaway ($6,400)
I wrote an ARTICLE yesterday about how Hardaway has essentially developed into the Mavs second best player, and I think you're getting excellent value for him in this mid-tier. The other players around him in this price range are the 3rd or 4th options on their teams, so you're getting a guy who's locked in for 35-40 minutes and who should take a good number of shots tonight.
1. Tyrese Maxey ($3,900)
Tyrese Maxey has developed into one of the Sixers best bench players, which is not something I think anyone anticipated happening in these playoffs. He has pretty high usage when he comes in the game, and he's always looking to attack and score. His minutes have steadily increased, and I think he'll continue to play a lot in this ATL series, if his prior performances are any indication.
2. Kevin Huerter ($4,000)
With Deandre Hunter Questionable, I think you have to strongly consider Huerter, ESPECIALLY if Hunter sits. Hunter sitting would open up a starting spot that I think Huerter would be most likely to take, but I also think he could even play more minutes if Hunter tries to play and isn't as effective. The Hawks go with who is rolling, so if Nate Macmillan realizes that Hunter isn't himself, he'll have no problem giving someone else the end-game minutes.
3. Marcus Morris Sr ($4,900)
Even though I went to Morris in the last game and he didn't perform well, I won't be deterred from going to him again today. He's locked in for 35-40+ minutes, and I also expect him to spend less time defensively on Luka today (because Kawhi will guard him more presumably), which should result in him being more fresh on the offensive end and therefore more aggressive from the start. I could see a big bounce back game from Morris today… he's made for games like this.
Kawhi Leonard MORE than 33.5 Points
Kawhi absolutely showed out last game, and it would only be right if he concluded his incredible playoff series by going off one final time in game 7. He got whatever he wanted towards the end of game 6 and completely took the game into his own hands, so I expect him to do something similar in an even more important game for his legacy tonight. I could see PG taking a major backseat tonight, which means more shots and points for Leonard.
Tobias Harris MORE than 24.5 Points
There are 2 main reasons why I like this line tonight. 1) The Sixers try to get Tobias involved early in the series. He had 28 in the first half of game 1 against the Wizards in the 1st round, and I expect the Sixers to establish him in game 1 of this series as well, especially given his size advantage over whoever will be guarding him. 2) Embiid will either be sitting or not himself, in which case Tobias has a solid chance of being the primary scoring option today.