Has Louisiana cleared 2021 hurricane threat? Here's what experts say
Greg Hilburn
Louisiana can't yet completely exhale from the threat of more 2021 hurricanes, but it can begin to breathe a little easier as fall takes hold and makes conditions less conducive for tropical activity in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The state has been rocked by five hurricanes during the past five years, including two of the most powerful to ever make landfall in Louisiana — Hurricane Laura in 2020 near Lake Charles and Hurricane Ida in August in bayou country.
"The likelihood of tropical activity for us is dropping off fast," Ben Schott, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service's New Orleans station, said in an interview with USA Today Network.
"We're starting to get a pattern of cold fronts that are pushing their way all the way through to the Gulf of Mexico," said Schott, an adviser to Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards during hurricane season.
Andy Tingler, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Lake Charles station, said there are virtually no northern Gulf of Mexico threats for at least the next week.
"We just got off of our medium range conference call with the National Hurricane Center, and the chances for development look pretty muted," Tingler said. "We're starting to get cold fronts that will shear off developments or steer them off into the Atlantic.
"That's makes it hard for tropical developments to penetrate the northern Gulf of Mexico," Tingler said.
But Schott and Tingler said the state can't yet completely let its guard down.
Hurricane season doesn't officially end until Oct. 31, and both Schott and Tingler pointed to Hurricane Zeta in 2020 as a late-season cyclone that made landfall near Cocodrie on Oct. 28 as a Category 3 with 115 mph winds.
And Zeta isn't the only late-season hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana.
Hurricane Juan, a Category 1, 75-mph cyclone, made landfall near Morgan City on Oct. 29, 1985. That's the latest a hurricane has made landfall in Louisiana.
On Nov. 11, 2009, the first Hurricane Ida skirted Louisiana before making landfall near Mobile, Ala., as tropical depression.
"That was a close call and there have been others," said meteorologist Don Wheeler of Monroe. "Hurricane season may officially end on Oct. 31, but that doesn't magically stop late storms for forming."
Wheeler said the latest Atlantic basin hurricane on record was Hurricane Alice, which made landfall in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Dec. 30, 1954.
But at least for now, no such activity looms in the Gulf of Mexico.
"If we can just make it a couple of more weeks, the chances for another hurricane are extremely slim," Schott said.
Greg Hilburn covers state politics for the USA TODAY Network of Louisiana. Follow him on Twitter @GregHilburn1.