BlogW.M. Phoenix Preview and Picks
February 4th – 7th, 2016
TPC of Scottsdale
Scottsdale, Ariz.
Par: 71 / Yardage:
Purse: $6.5 Million
with $1,170,000 to the winner
Defending Champion:
by Sal Johnson
Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats
E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com
This week's field includes:
The field includes 44 of the top-100 players and 19 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with two players in the top-ten, #4 Rickie Fowler and #5 Bubba Watson. The other top 50 players are #12 Brandt Snedeker, #14 Zach Johnson, #16 Kevin Kisner, #17 Brooks Koepka, #19 Hideki Matsuyama, #21 Shane Lowry, #22 Kevin Na, #24 J.B. Holmes, #32 Phil Mickelson, #33 Emiliano Grillo, #35 David Lingmerth, #38 Justin Thomas, #43 Robert Streb, #45 Scott Piercy, #46 Billy Horschel, #47 Danny Lee and #49 Anirban Lahiri.
Last year there was 19 top-50 players in the field
The field includes 20 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2016. Those players are #1 Kevin Kisner, #2 Brandt Snedeker, #4 Kevin Na, #5 Smylie Kaufman, #6 Justin Thomas, #8 Fabian Gomez, #9 Jason Dufner, #10 Emiliano Grillo, #12 Jason Bohn, #13 David Lingmerth, #14 Peter Malnati, #16 Si Woo Kim, #17 Charles Howell III, #18 Alex Cejka, #19 Kevin Streelman, #20 Jamie Lovemark, #21 Kevin Chappell, #22 K.J. Choi, #23 Patton Kizzire and #24 Freddie Jacobson.
The field includes 20 players in the top 25 on this year's PGA Tour money list. Those players are #1 Kevin Kisner, #2 Brandt Snedeker, #4 Kevin Na, #5 Justin Thomas, #6 Smylie Kaufman, #8 Fabian Gomez, #9 Jason Dufner, #11 Emiliano Grillo, #12 Jason Bohn, #13 Peter Malnati, #15 David Lingmerth, #17 Charles Howell III, #18 Alex Cejka, #19 K.J. Choi, #20 Patton Kizzire #21 Si Woo Kim, #22 Kevin Streelman, #23 Kevin Chappell, #24 Jamie Lovemark, and #25 William McGirt.
The field includes 7 past champions: Brooks Koepka (2015), Phil Mickelson (2013, '05 & '96), Kyle Stanley (2012), Mark Wilson (2011), Hunter Mahan (2010), J.B. Holmes (2008 & '06) and Aaron Baddeley (2007).
A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Phoenix Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Phoenix Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Phoenix Open.
A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.
Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.
One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ. For those that play in fantasy golf it's a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games. You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament. On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.
That's GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it
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Time to look at our who's hot and who isn't:
Who's Hot in the field for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Qatar Masters
Sony Open
Hyundai T. of Champions
Nedbank Challenge
Australian PGA
Brandt Snedeker
(288.67 pts) Win
(132) DNP DNP DNP 2
(100) DNP T3
(60) DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33) DNP DNP
Jason Dufner
(177 pts) DNP DNP Win
(45) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
David Lingmerth
(175.33 pts) DNP DNP 2
(100) DNP T13
(37) DNP T15
(23.33) DNP DNP T9
(15) DNP DNP
Rickie Fowler
(168.67 pts) CUT
(-10) DNP DNP Win
(132) DNP DNP 5
(46.67) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Fabian Gomez
(162 pts) CUT
(-10) DNP DNP DNP Win
(40) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
(157 pts) T18
(32) DNP T9
(45) DNP 4
Jamie Lovemark
Kevin Streelman
(129 pts) 3
(39) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Kevin Na
(112 pts) DNP DNP T3
Charles Howell III
K.J. Choi
(100) DNP DNP DNP T50
(1) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Kevin Kisner
(100 pts) DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
John Huh
(93 pts) T8
Smylie Kaufman
(84.33 pts) T25
(36) DNP DNP DNP T15
Hudson Swafford
(82 pts) T13
(0) DNP T9
Emiliano Grillo
(81.33 pts) CUT
(-10) DNP DNP DNP T33
(21.33) DNP T11
(13) DNP DNP T4
Paul Dunne
(37) DNP DNP DNP DNP 9
(2) CUT
(-3.33) DNP
(80 pts) CUT
(-10) DNP T3
Webb Simpson
(79.67 pts) DNP DNP T17
(9.67) DNP DNP DNP
Harold Varner III
(19) DNP CUT
(-10) DNP T13
(37) DNP DNP DNP DNP T2
(33.33) DNP DNP
J.B. Holmes
(77.33 pts) T6
(60) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T24
Brian Harman
(76 pts) 71
(0) DNP T11
Jonas Blixt
(-10) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ryan Palmer
(70 pts) DNP DNP T17
Zac Blair
(-10) DNP CUT
(-10) DNP 3
How Player Rankings are Computed
Who's Not Hot in the field for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Boo Weekley
(-30 pts) CUT
Charlie Beljan
Camilo Villegas
Carl Pettersson
Andres Gonzales
(-10) DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Pat Perez
Chad Collins
(-20 pts) DNP DNP CUT
Jon Curran
Brendon Todd
Nick Watney
The Buzz:
Brandt's wild win:
What a wild finish in San Diego on Monday. Not many players can finish there round and have to wait 23 hours to find their faith. Brandt Snedeker shot 69 and was able to finish up on Sunday. When everything was said and done, Snedeker was the only player to shot a final round under par, the next best round was even par 72 by Robert Streb. Of the 71 players in the final round, 69 were over par and 23 shot in the 80s. Third round co-leader Scott Brown shot 87, in looking at the history of the PGA Tour in four round, stroke play events going back to 1970, 2,511 have led after 54 holes and previously the worst score was 82 by Jack Nicklaus in the 1976 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am, Bob Gilder in the 1980 Memorial and Dustin Johnson in the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. So Brown has put his name on a record that may never be beaten in golf again, highest final round after having the third round lead. Gosh Brown's round was so bad, only five pars, 11 bogeys and two double bogeys that in the history of the PGA Tour going back to 1970 there have only been 8 other scores higher, the biggest being Mike Reasor in the 1974 Tallahassee Open when he shot 114. You wonder why so high, back then there was no exempt tour and Reasor didn't have any status. After making the cut he injured himself, but had to play the final two rounds to be able to play in the next event. So swinging the club with just one arm, which was hurting and using a 5-iron he shot 123 and then 114 in the final round, the highest round in PGA Tour history.
Now making Snedeker's final round so great was the final round scoring average was 77.90 so Brandt was just under 8 shots under the par for the final round. In some eyes when Snedeker finished and the round was postponed to Monday, some figured it was a tough break. But the players who really got the tough break was those who had to play on Monday. Originally the round was to start at 8am and at that time everything was calm with no wind. But the course was a mess, a dozen trees over 50 feet fell and needed to be taken care of so the course could be playable. So the round started three hours later, at 11am and about 15 minutes after that the wind start blowing, creating havoc for the 49 players that had to complete their day. So the golfing Gods gave Snedeker and big gift because it was close to impossible for any of those players to do well.
With the win Snedeker has won 8 times, with four of them in California. Have to also think that he can really go crazy in the months ahead. Brandt has always been a great west coast player and only has two top-tens in Florida, both at the Valspar Championship. But one thing to think about is Snedeker at the Masters. The course is perfect for him and he didn't finish T-3rd in 2008 and T-9th in 2013.
Back to Phoenix:
The Tour returns to Phoenix and one of the biggest parties of the year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. It may be SuperBowl week with the big game being played outside of San Francisco, but they still will pack them in to watch golf. Last year 564,368 went through the turnstiles with 159,906 on Saturday alone for what is the biggest party of the year for the PGA Tour. It seems that they all go over to either the big pavilion that has been a mainstay of the tournament since it started or the 16th hole, golf's version of the Roman Coliseum. The 16th hole could be the wackiest place on the PGA Tour. A combination of true golf fans wanting to see some great golf along with a lot of others that wear out their arms hoisting their favorite adult beverage. The hole is completely surrounded by bleachers and hospitality tents, giving it that gladiator feel to it. It's become such a mainstay that organizers are thinking of just making the façade a permanent fixture and having it stay up year round.
Injury report on two players:
We have been in the dark on the futures of Kevin Stadler and Jim Furyk. Both have had serious wrist injuries, which have required lot's of rest but frankly rest doesn't seem to have help.
As for Stadler, after playing professional golf for 12 years and on his 292 worldwide start Kevin Stadler won his first PGA Tour event at the 2014 Waste Mangement Phoenix Open. After the win he finished T-8th at the Masters and was runner-up at the French Open four months later. But nine months after his win in Phoenix, Stadler started feeling pain in his left wrist and a couple of weeks later withdrew from the WGC HSBC Champions, the injury was diagnosed as a broken bone. Stadler had no idea on how it got broken other than overuse but in 2015 he wasn't able to defend his Phoenix title and only played three times the last being the John Deere in July which he missed the cut. Little has been heard from Stadler since, he hasn't tried to play in another event and won't be back this week to play in Phoenix to reminisce his greatest triumph in golf.
As for Furyk, Tim Rosaforte on Golf Channel had the story on how Furyk will have surgery on his left wrist and will miss another 3 months. Furyk hasn't played on the PGA Tour since the BMW Championship in September and was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to a bone contusion in that left wrist, which has hampered him for months. Many thought he would be back at the AT&T Pebble Beach but he won't. For Furyk who is 45 this has to be scary. He had surgery on the same wrist in 2004, undergoing arthroscopic surgery to repair cartilage damage. So this could be related to that and who knows if Furyk will be able to come back from this. He is confident that surgery is the best way to fix it, still it's always dangerous.
WM Phoenix Open history:
It began in 1932 as the Arizona Open and has been played at the TPC of Scottsdale, since 1987. After the first two years, the event took the name, Phoenix Open in 1935. The only older tournaments on the PGA Tour are; the British Open (1860), U.S. Open (1895), Western Open (1899), Canadian Open (1904), PGA Championship (1916), Texas Open (1922) and the Nissan Open (1926).
Due to lack of local support, the tournament was discontinued after 1935. The tournament was revived thanks to the energy and vision of one man, Bob Goldwater, Sr. who was an avid golfer. So in 1939, Goldwater's new fledgling golf tournament was the official rebirth of the Phoenix Open. Goldwater was left with most of the work, he printed the tickets, sold sponsorships and obtained the use of Phoenix Country Club. He even invited a few of his friends to tee it up at the tournament. Those friends just happened to be Bing Crosby, Bob Hope and a golfer by the name of Ben Hogan. "I loved those early years," said Goldwater. "I look back on those days with a sense of pride mixed with wonderment." And, yes, after a few more persuasive talks and the success of the 1939 Phoenix Open, The Thunderbirds came around and lent their full support. During that 1939 tournament, a 27-year-old up-and-comer named Byron Nelson won the $700 first prize. Hogan finished second, 12 strokes back, and collected $450. Since then, The Thunderbirds had been a part of the event every year except 1943, when wartime travel restrictions forced a one-year hiatus. The list of professional golfers who have won in Phoenix reads like the golf Hall of Fame: Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Jimmy Demaret, Billy Casper, Gene Littler, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Miller Barber, Johnny Miller, Ben Crenshaw, and more recently Lee Janzen, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Tom Lehman, Mark Calcavecchia and Kenny Perry just to name a few. Over the tournament's 77 year history, the Open has been known by many names, including the Western Open, the Arizona Open, the Ben Hogan Invitational, the Phoenix Open, the FBR Open and now the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The tournament has been played at Phoenix Country Club, Arizona Country Club and the TPC Scottsdale, which has been the home course of the tournament since 1987. 2015 will mark the 29th consecutive year the tournament has been played at the Stadium Course at the TPC Scottsdale, and it has had a renovation to spruce it up and make it more challenging for the players. Thanks to the most fan-friendly tournament venue on Tour, it attracts the largest galleries of any golf tournament in the world. In fact, compared to the days when the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club, and the top attendance mark was 186,000 (1986), the event has grown by leaps and bounds. At the 2008 FBR Open, a PGA Tour record 538,356 fans attended the tournament, including 170,802 during Saturday's third round alone. 2008′s Saturday attendance used to be a single-day PGA Tour record until 2013 when 179,022 fans came out for the third round. The 2014 event set a new attendance record when 563,008 fans came out. 2015 was suppose to be the last year of Waste Management's six-year sponsorship deal, but they have renewed their commitment and tacked on another ten years and will sponsor the event to at least 2025.
Course information:
Played at TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Az.
Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,261
In 2015, the South course was the 22nd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 70.752 average.
The TPC of Scottsdale was designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, with Howard Twitty and Jim Colbert serving as player consultants. The course opened in 1986 and had some interesting features like desert between the holes and fairways with many plants from the surrounding area. The layout also features mounding for spectators. The course can easily accommodate over 100,000 spectators, last year 159,906 showed up for Saturday's third round. The average green size is 6,770 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. The course has 72 bunkers and six water hazards.
Surrounded by spectacular mountain views, the course was designed specifically to host the Phoenix Open, and the aforementioned mounding promises an excellent view to all of the the 500,000+ in the galleries. Hole No. 16 will always be remembered as the site of Tiger Woods' hole in one in 1998. Hole No. 17 will be remembered for the first and only hole in one on a par four during a PGA Tour event, which was recorded by Andrew Magee in 2001.
Major renovations were done before last years event with four greens completely rebuilt while the other 14 resurfaced and reshaped. 45 yards was added, but three holes will play slightly shorter. Every bunker was redone, in most cases bringing them more into play. Also, 250 trees were added so the combination of trees and bunkers coming into play off the tee will make the course slightly tighter. Despite the change average scores may be a bit higher but look for the winning score, which has averaged 22 and a half under par for the last 18 years to stay the same.
Here is a new feature we have, a look at key stats that are important for those playing at TPC Scottsdale:
This is based on the most important stats for TPC Scottsdale, based on data from last years Waste Management Phoenix Open, and using data from all the players in the field for with stats from 2015 and 2016. What we do is take there rank for each stat and average that number between players rank in '15 & '16.
The scoring average of the field on TPC Scottsdale in 2015 was 70.75, so with par being 71 that means the average score was just a quarter shot under par per round, making the course the 22nd hardest course to score on in 2015.
In looking at the stats for TPC Scottsdale last year, driving and greens hit is important. With fast fairways, the course ranked 22nd in driving distance and 22nd in driving accuracy. Also hitting greens was important, the course ranked 14th in greens in regulation Last year's winner Brooks Koepka was 3rd in driving distance, T-47thg in Driving accuracy and T-4th in Greens in Regulation. Now add this all together and he was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In proximity to Hole Koepka was 11th while in scrambling he was 2nd. He was T-5th in Par Breakers, it did help that he was T-6th in birdies.
*Strokes gained tee-to-Greens: Important because it shows how TPC Scottsdale ranked T12th in this stat, meaning that a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy and greens hit is important
*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 14th, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, TPC Scottsdale ranked 8th as the players averaged getting it 39 feet and 9 inches.
*Par Breakers: Desert courses always seem to give up a lot of birdies and eagles, last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 12th in that stat
*Scrambling: Of the 52 courses on tour in 2015, TPC Scottsdale got it up and down 63.82% of the time, meaning that only seven other courses were better. So it's important for players to make sure to get it up and down on those holes that they miss the greens.
For the field last year:
Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.
Strokes gained tee-to-Greens
Proximity to hole
Par Breakers
Total Rank
1 Hideki Matsuyama (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 9.5 62.5 8.0 30.5 110.5
2 Jason Bohn (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 25.0 14.5 15.5 73.0 128.0
3 Kevin Na (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 18.5 72.5 20.5 18.5 130.0
4 Webb Simpson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 12.5 26.0 55.0 47.0 140.5
5 Kevin Kisner (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 33.5 42.0 62.0 30.0 167.5
6 David Lingmerth (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 44.5 40.5 43.0 40.5 168.5
7 William McGirt (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 33.5 28.0 70.5 39.5 171.5
8 Patton Kizzire (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 20.0 69.0 33.0 54.0 176.0
9 Zach Johnson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 30.5 33.0 44.0 68.5 176.0
10 Daniel Berger (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 35.5 59.5 39.0 46.5 180.5
11 Justin Thomas (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 31.0 68.0 8.5 90.5 198.0
12 David Toms (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 66.0 18.0 112.5 6.5 203.0
13 Emiliano Grillo (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 76.0 35.0 50.0 43.0 204.0
14 Phil Mickelson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 35.0 114.5 9.0 52.0 210.5
15 Jason Dufner (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 14.5 45.0 40.5 132.5 232.5
16 Bubba Watson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 3.5 169.5 18.0 51.5 242.5
17 Will Wilcox (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 90.0 51.0 66.5 37.0 244.5
18 Rickie Fowler (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 37.5 139.0 14.5 54.5 245.5
19 Ryan Palmer (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 28.0 73.5 32.0 116.0 249.5
20 Alex Cejka (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) 81.5 46.0 85.0 45.5
For a complete list of all players go to this link for our key course stat.
Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open:
Key stat for the winner:
It use to be the player with the hot putter dominated this tournament as between 1997 and 2007 all the champions except for one (2003 Vijay Singh) were in the top-nine in putting. On the reverse, between 1997 and 2008 of the 12 champions only three were in the top-ten of greens hit. Since 2008 of the eight winners, two were 10th in putting as the winners ranked between 10th and 71st in putting. But in that same period, all the champions were in the top-4 of greens hit (the worst was Kevin Stadler, who ranked 10th) while three of the winners in those seven years led the stat. Major changed came about to the course in 2004 and then in 2005, so it just took a bit before hitting lot's of greens took over. Overall the TPC Scottsdale ranked 14th of all the courses in 2015 in greens in regulation so it's very important to hit all of the greens.
Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:
One unimportant stat: The course is in the desert and in past years had the longest driving average. in 2014 the average drive was 301.4, but in 2015 it went down to 288.5 probably because of the changes made to the course before last year's tournament. So common sense would be that the winners are big hitters, that isn't the case. Since 1997, only four of the last 19 champions have been in the top-ten of the weekly driving distance stat with seven of them out of the top-25. So hitting it long really doesn't help in winning this tournament.
Nine of the last 19 champions have had a Top-10 finish within three weeks before they won the championship, so look for someone that is playing well to win. In 2009 Kenny Perry finished T6th at Kapalua just three weeks before the Phoenix Open, but Hunter Mahan was not playing well leading up to the 2010 event. In 2011 Mark Wilson won just two weeks before the event at the Sony Open in Hawaii amd in 2012 Kyle Stanley lost a playoff the week before winning at Phoenix. Unfortunately that trend ended as the last three winners didn't play well before winning. Last year Brooks Koepka was playing his first event in six weeks, taking some time off so the time off was perfect for him.
Players can't be afraid of a lot of people watching, considering as many as 100,000 will be in attendance over the weekend.
Players must hit lots of greens and make lots of birdies. In the last 19 years the winners have averaged hitting 74.4% of the greens and averaged 22.4 birdies for the week.
One last important fact is that birdies have to be made on par 4s. This is one of those events in which scoring is lower on the par 4s than the par 5s. Since 1997, 12 of the 19 champions have done better, last year Brooks Koepka played the par 5s in just 2 under par while he was 11 under on the par 4s.
After a tough weekend weather-wise in San Diego, after Tuesday the weather will be perfect with everyday being in the mid-70s, no rain and very little wind.
Who to watch for at the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Best Bets:
Bubba Watson
T2 T2 15 T5 T29 T36 T25 CUT T8
Full Waste Management Phoenix Open RecordFull 8 year glance at his record
Has been awsome in last four Phoenix starts, finishing runner-up twice and in his last 16 rounds playing them in 55 under par. You know he will be there on Sunday.
T10 T61 2 T50 T8 T43 CUT T9 T23
Can he keep up the good play? May not be the best course for him, but still he is playing great right now.
T26 T19 T36 T5 CUT T53 3 T4 T67 T2
If you look at our course keys he has all the numbers to do very well, this could be a good week for him.
Best of the rest:
CUT T55
Has all the stats of late, just hasn't shown us much in his two Phoenix appearance, but this shouldn't stop you from picking him.
T46 CUT CUT T26 T13 2 T58
Good course for him, hey the last desert course he played on he won.
CUT CUT T8 2 T62
Also has played well on this course, he two won on the last desert course he played on.
Hideki Matsuyama
Here is the reverse, he has great numbers from Phoenix, but hasn't played well of late. Still think he will play well.
First time playing in this event
Full 8 year glance at his record
Solid contenders
CUT T42 Win T26 T29 T24 CUT 2 CUT T7 Win T7
Didn't make the cut at Farmers but he felt his game was good. I have to think that this is a great course for him and he will do well.
T66 T58 CUT T45 T5 T43 CUT Win CUT Win
Has a special place for this place, look for him to play well.
Graham DeLaet
T7 T2 CUT T55 CUT
Still think this guy can win, good course for him to do that on.
Defending champion who can play well again.
Long shots that could come through:
Freddie Jacobson
T7 CUT CUT T43 T58 T25 T33 77 T9
Played well in Phoenix and had a good week in San Diego.
Brendan Steele
T26 T6 T6 T5 T53
Playing well and on a course he can win on.
Has the game and stats to play well this week.