. There are also no reports of hoarding in preparation for the apocalypse.
And then there is China. Whatever else we think of his foreign policy, Trump has succeeded in putting sustained pressure on Xi Jinping to do something about North Korea. Xi can't be happy about being pushed around, and a number of things coming out of Beijing could be read as veiled signals to Pyongyang. These start with China's surprisingly muted response to the Syrian strikes, taken in the name of upholding another WMD-related norm. As Julian Ku points out at Lawfare, China's refusal to more clearly condemn the attacks is surprising and unique; China even abstained on the most recent UN Security Council resolution, leaving the Russians isolated in vetoing it. Second, there is the UPI story about PLA forces being put on alert and even moved toward the North Korean border. And finally, you have a host of stories—some fake news—purportedly coming out of the Chinese press urging a tougher line. One Global Times story from two days ago placed the onus for instability squarely on Pyongyang and argued for tougher sanctions if North Korea tests. The language of the editorial is worth quoting:
"More and more Chinese support the view that the government should enhance sanctions over Pyongyang's nuclear activities. If the North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese society will be willing to see the UNSC adopt severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North."
But we are also seeing countervailing signs of reversion to form. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi is once again reverting to form by calling for calm on both sides, the maddening moral equivalence that has no doubt motivated the Trump team to be more forward. China and North Korea still have a mutual defense treaty, one that the North Koreans could in theory invoke in case of a US attack. While the Chinese do not want to rouse Armageddon over Kim Jong-un, are we really sure that they would simply stand by while their credibility was shredded? This is the classic "sleepwalking" scenario, drifting into a conflict no one wants: World War I meet World War III.
All of that said, it is not clear that the conclusions of the NBC report—that a military crisis is imminent—are correct. Let's review the bidding. Several days ago, President Trump tweeted twice about North Korea in rapid succession. One Tweet reiterated his threat to go it alone, but in the other he claimed that he had "explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!" As I wrote earlier in the week, the messages coming out of Mar-a-Lago also appeared to focus more on tougher sanctions as the first step.
Our prediction: Kim Jong-un is more cautious than he looks, over-the-top statements notwithstanding. He will not test, or will go with missiles rather than a nuclear test, the US will not have to respond, and China will be temporarily off the hook. But note that this good outcome would still leave us nowhere unless China and the US in fact do collaborate on the issue. We all know the package deal: China gets North Korea back to the bargaining table, probably through economic leverage, and the US agrees to show up. Don't count on it, but it is the only off ramp we can see.
Your analysis certainly makes sense. It will be certainly foolish for the North to test a Nuke when the S. Koreans will be voting for their next president.
In any case, let's remember the past cost of the Korean War, which is still going on in Korea. Americans, Koreans and other concerned parties wasted trillions of dollars on this longest war in history. Everybody will lose if a hot war resumes in Korea, except the US arms sellers.
It is about time to end the costly Korean War now through talks, instead of restarting the deadly, tragic war. Give peace a chance!
True. But what if North Korea is teasing the bull? They clearly know China plus US ( if it works) would be at a better position.
It's been a ritual that North Koreans are constantly involved in some or the other activities that is a threat to neighbours.
Syria plus south China Sea plus North Korea plus French elections volatile world suddenly.
I hope Mr Trump waits and then takes calculated and selective risks. Or else catastrophic results are bound to happen.
It's going to be contagion.
Of course he tests. He can't just have something in the neighborhood of 282 kilotons and just let the 105th Day of the Sun pass. I just don't see it.
Stephan Haggard Senior Research Staff
Marcus Noland Senior Research Staff
Conversations in China
Did China and South Korea Just Kiss and Make Up?
Stephan Haggard (PIIE)
What Does China Want? Part II: Taking up the Wang Yi Proposal and the China-DPRK War of Words
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