COLTS INSIDER
Can Philip Rivers lead Colts back to playoffs? Insiders predict outcome of all 16 games
Jim Ayello Joel A. Erickson
IndyStar's Indianapolis Colts Insiders, Joel A. Erickson and Jim Ayello take their best shot at predicting every game this season.
Week 1: Colts at Jaguars, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4
Erickson (1-0): Colts 30, Jaguars 20
Indianapolis has horrible recent history in season openers, but this game is a gift from the NFL's schedule-makers. Jacksonville is in a rebuild; the defense that used to be so formidable has been dismantled over the past couple of seasons. If the Indianapolis defense can keep Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark and the Jaguars' passing game in check, the Colts should win this one.
Ayello (1-0): Colts 27, Jaguars 13
"Sacksonville" is no more. The men who used to make the Jaguars front so formidable (Yannick Ngakoue, Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson) are gone. And on the back end, the Jaguars no longer employ Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye or Ronnie Harrison. In other words, with one of the best offensive lines in the league in front of him, Philip Rivers should have little trouble finding the end zone in his Colts debut. He'll throw his first two touchdowns of the season on Sunday, one to T.Y. Hilton and the other to the ever-reliable Jack Doyle.
Week 2: Colts vs. Vikings, 1 p.m. Sept. 20, WXIN-59
Erickson (2-0): Colts 27, Vikings 24
Mike Zimmer's defense had a weakness last season. The Vikings ranked 19th in the NFL in yards per rush allowed, lost massive free agent nose tackle Michael Pierce to an opt-out, and Indianapolis is uniquely positioned to take advantage of Minnesota's run defense. Add in a lack of explosiveness in a Vikings passing game that no longer has Stefon Diggs, and the Colts take this one.
Ayello (1-1): Vikings 24, Colts 20
We've found Yannick Ngakoue. The newest Viking pass-rusher has given the Colts fits in the past, racking up 6.5 sacks in eight games. Paired him with Danielle Hunter, and the Colts have their hands full protecting Rivers, who's sacked three times. Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, picks on ex-Minnesota corner Xavier Rhodes most of the game and does just enough to lead the underrated Vikings to victory. Colts fans take some solace in the first 100-yard game of Parris Campbell's career.
Week 3: Colts vs. Jets, 4:05 p.m. Sept. 27, WTTV-4
Erickson (3-0): Colts 27, Jets 16
New York is still in rebuilding mode, lacks stars on both sides of the ball and has a completely new offensive line in front of Sam Darnold. Indianapolis is now a veteran team with a quarterback capable of taking advantage of the Jets' secondary, and the Colts win easily.
Ayello (2-1): Colts 31, Jets 17
Everything clicks offensively against a Jets (aka Colts East) defense filled with ex-Colts. Rivers throws for 300-plus yards for the first time in his Colts career, while Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor combine for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Darius Leonard leads the charge defensively, making 13 tackles and forcing a fumble.
Week 4: Colts at Bears, 1 p.m. Oct. 4, WTTV-4
Erickson (4-0): Colts 21, Bears 14
Chicago's defense, led by Khalil Mack, remains stout under former Colts head coach Chuck Pagano, but the Bears have significant issues on offense and few playmakers outside of Allen Robinson and Tarik Cohen. The Indianapolis offensive line neutralizes the Bears' front just enough to come away with a win.
Ayello (3-1): Colts 17, Bears 13
With Mitchell Trubisky benched in the middle of Week 3, it's Nick Foles who starts against his Philly Special counterparts in Frank Reich and Trey Burton. Foles might have been better served staying on the bench, as DeForest Buckner racks up two of the Colts' six sacks. Burton, who has this game circled on his calendar, delivers a two touchdown performance to lead the Colts to a win in this Super Bowl XLI rematch.
Week 5: Colts at Browns, 4:25 p.m. Oct. 11, WTTV-4
Erickson (4-1): Browns 34, Colts 31
Cleveland fixed its biggest problem, an inability to protect Baker Mayfield, and still has a bevy of offensive weapons that make it difficult for the Colts' defense to take everything away. Mayfield wins at home in a shootout, handing Indianapolis its first loss of the season.
Ayello (3-2): Browns 27, Colts 23
The Browns had the talent in 2019, just not the coach. With Freddie Kitchens gone, Baker Mayfield and the Browns blossom into the contender everyone thought they'd be last year. It's a back-and-forth game that ends with Rivers throwing a late interception while trying to lead the Colts down the field for a last-second score.
Week 6: Colts vs. Bengals, 1 p.m. Oct. 18, WXIN-59
Erickson (5-1): Colts 38, Bengals 17
Even after the pick of Joe Burrow, the rebuild in Cincinnati is far from over, and the Colts' diverse offensive attack overwhelms the Bengals defense, while the Indianapolis defensive line and strategy of eliminating explosive plays proves difficult for Burrow.
Ayello (4-2): Colts 30, Bengals 20
The Colts meet No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow, who is already well on his way to rookie of the year honors. However, the Bengals' defense is no match for Mack and the Colts' running game, which grind out more than 200 yards. The Colts head into the break 4-2 and tied with Tennessee for the AFC South division lead.
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Colts at Lions, 1 p.m. Nov. 1, WTTV-4
Erickson (6-1): Colts 35, Lions 23
For all of Matt Patricia's efforts, Detroit remains the same team, essentially, that it was when he took over: all Matthew Stafford and the passing game, not enough defense to handle a balanced offense like the one Indianapolis has built to this point. By now, the Taylor-Mack combination is rolling, and Rivers and the passing game hit big plays off of play-action.
Ayello (5-2): Colts 34, Lions 27
The 2019 Lions yielded more total yards than all but the Cardinals last season. They're better this year — but not much. Rivers and T.Y. Hilton torch the Lions secondary for 115 yards and two touchdowns while Nyheim Hines returns his first punt for a touchdown of the season. That score — and a late Malik Hooker interception — seal the win for the Colts.
Week 9: Colts vs. Ravens, 1 p.m. Nov. 8, WTTV-4
Erickson (6-2): Ravens 27, Colts 20
Baltimore feels like a bad matchup for Indianapolis, a power running team with a lightning-fast quarterback in reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, uniquely talented to take advantage of an Indianapolis defensive line that still needs more speed, especially if Kemoko Turay isn't at full strength yet.
Ayello (5-3): Ravens 17, Colts 16
A year after shutting down Patrick Mahomes, defensive coordinator Matt Ebeflus crafts another masterpiece to stop the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. His effort is in vain, however, with the Ravens fast defense proving too much for the Colts, who are forced to settle for field goals on four of their trips into Baltimore territory. The Colts have a chance to win late anyway, but rookie kicker Rodrigo Blankenship narrowly misses a 55-yarder. While it's a tough loss to swallow, the game proves the Colts can match up with the league's best.
Week 10: Colts at Titans 8:20 p.m. Nov. 12, WXIN-59/NFLN/Amazon
Erickson (7-2): Colts 27, Titans 24
Tennessee's pass defense ranked just 24th in the NFL last season, and although the addition of Jadeveon Clowney makes headlines, he wasn't enough to transform Seattle's pass rush last season, and the Titans no longer have Jurrell Casey or Logan Ryan, leaving Tennessee susceptible to Philip Rivers, T.Y. Hilton and the rest of the Colts receivers.
Ayello (5-4): Titans 23, Colts 20
The addition of Jadeveon Clowney has taken the Titans defense to another level. With his help on the edge, the Colts' potent rushing attack is bottled up. Rivers throws for nearly 300 yards — 95 to Michael Pittman in his best game of the year — in a valiant effort but a pair of interceptions is his undoing, and the Colts drop their second division game of the season. It doesn't help this game came just four days after a grueling battle with Baltimore.
Week 11: Colts vs. Packers 1 p.m. Nov. 22, WXIN-59
Erickson (7-3): Packers 26, Colts 19
Aaron Rodgers is a bad matchup for this Indianapolis defense, unaffected by the rush and capable of finding every hole in the Colts' zone. A takeaway-heavy Packers defense takes advantage of Rivers trying to do too much a few times, and the Colts get dealt their first home loss of the season.
Ayello (6-4): Colts 35, Packers 24
The Colts keep the Smiths (Za'Darius and Preston) under control, and Rivers feasts on a depleted Packers secondary, racking up 350 yards and four touchdowns. While he connects on a few deep shots to Campbell, Hilton and Pittman, Hines does a lot of the heavy lifting with a nine-catch, 100-yard performance.
Week 12: Colts vs. Titans, 1 p.m. Nov. 29, WTTV-4
A Colts defense that has been retooled to take away the big plays that plagued Indianapolis in the second matchup against Tennessee last year gets back to its formula, and Matt Eberflus' troops slow down Derrick Henry enough for Rivers and the offense to pick Tennessee apart again.
Ayello (7-4): Colts 25, Titans 20
The Colts pull out a much-needed win to split the season series with the Titans. Rock Ya-Sin's pick-6 was the big play of the game, but Blankenship shares hero honors, as he goes 6-for-6 on his field goal tries.
Week 13: Colts at Texans 1 p.m. Dec. 6, WTTV-4
Erickson (9-3): Colts 35, Texans 21
Brandin Cooks is no replacement for DeAndre Hopkins in an already injury-plagued receiving corps, leaving Darius Leonard to torment Deshaun Watson. A healthy T.Y. Hilton has a big game in his favorite playground.
Ayello (8-4): Colts 31, Texans 20
Despite an MVP-caliber season from Deshaun Watson, the injury-riddled Texans are in desperate need of a victory to stay in the hunt. Instead, The Colts defense helps push them into oblivion, tormenting Watson all game. With the Texans focused on Buckner, Justin Houston picks up 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble, which Leonard scoops up for a score. Taylor rushes for 75 yards in the fourth quarter alone to put the game on ice.
Week 14: Colts at Raiders, 4:05 p.m. Dec. 13, WTTV-4
Erickson (9-4): Raiders 23, Colts 20
Back-to-back road trips, and the longest trip of the season for Indianapolis, catch up with the Colts in the desert. For whatever reason, Derek Carr has been great against the Colts the past two seasons, and he's just good enough again, knocking off an Indianapolis team that looked like it was cruising to an AFC South title.
Ayello (8-5): Raiders 31, Colts 24
Squeezed between a run of division games, the Colts overlook the Raiders and let one slip through their fingers. Derek Carr's bounce-back season continues, as he throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Rivers has a fine game himself (285 yards, three touchdowns) against his old AFC West rivals, but a late Taylor fumble costs the Colts a chance at salvation.
Week 15: Colts vs. Texans, Dec. 19/20, TBD, TBD
Erickson (10-4): Colts 33, Texans 23
Houston quietly had one of the NFL's worst defenses last season, unable to stop the run or pass, and the Colts rip them apart again, with Rivers able to open up Houston's defense in a way Jacoby Brissett wasn't last year.
Without a healthy Brandin Cooks or Will Fuller, Watson has no one to throw to. He takes four sacks and tosses a pair of ugly second-half interceptions — one to Leonard and one to Kenny Moore. The win pushes the Colts into a tie with the Titans for a share of the AFC South lead.
Week 16: Colts at Steelers 1 p.m. Dec. 27, WTTV-4
Erickson (10-5): Steelers 21, Colts 20
A post-Christmas snowstorm in Pittsburgh creates an instant classic, the Colts' running game going toe-to-toe with Ben Roethlisberger's love of adverse conditions. In the bad conditions, though, rookie Rodrigo Blankenship misses a potential go-ahead field goal late, and the Colts fall, leaving the AFC South title within reach of the charging Titans.
Ayello (9-6): Steelers 16, Colts 13
Things rarely go right for the Colts in Pittsburgh. This year is no different. Rivers throws three interceptions and the run game stalls. The defense shuts down ex-Colts tight end Eric Ebron and keeps the Colts in the game, but by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, they're exhausted. Ben Roesthlisberger marches Pittsburgh down the field on a seven-minute drive that's capped with a game-winning field goal for the playoff-bound Steelers.
Week 17: Colts vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m. Jan. 3, WTTV-4
Erickson (11-5): Colts 35, Jaguars 10
By this point, Jacksonville is fully on board with playing for the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, and the No. 1 pick, and Indianapolis dutifully takes care of business, winning the AFC South and heading back into the playoffs.
Ayello (10-6): Colts 27, Jaguars 13.
In a must-win game, the Colts take care of business at home against the lowly Jaguars. Mack and the running game do the heavy lifting in a victory that clinches a wild-card berth (No. 6 seed) and a road trip to Tennessee for a rematch against the third-seeded Titans (11-5).
Follow IndyStar Colts Insiders Jim Ayello and Joel A. Erickson on Twitter: @jimayello and @JoelAErickson.