Elon Musk built a "submarine" to rescue Thailand kids—here's what it looks like
Voix des Airs wrote:
Since posting before (I'm the cave diver that posted above) I've had a little time to think about this and I am not seeing at all what this capsule gets you. It seems to be a complicated solution to no problem. I may be missing something but... What does this achieve over a full face mask (a mask that covers your whole face so there is no regulator in your mouth and you just breath normally)? If you are worried that the person you are transporting is going to thrash around you can just restrain their hands or strap them to a board. To me, but I'm not there, this capsule just looks dangerous, untested and unnecessary.
Careful - any skepticism - no matter how well supported, marks you a Tesla shorter and Musk hater.
compgeek89
I agree. Not sold on how effective the idea is. But, I am also far from an expert on cave diving or rescue operations.
But, I don't get the hostility to the fact that someone tried to assist. It may not work, but help was provided in good faith, so why so much anger over it?
ihatewinter wrote:
bbf wrote:
There are maps of this cave that show dimensions down to the centimeter. I found one. So can the doubters.
Strange how a link was not provided to the map.
Citation please. And it needs to reflect current conditions.
If there *were* an up to date map, then why did Elon waste the rescue teams time by asking them rather than checking the map directly?
He did both. Find it yourself, chump. You're so In The Know it should be easy.
Shit man, the smallest pinch point rises up and over in a passage only 25" high just large enough for a man to pass his tank ahead.
I've seen images where a 2 diver team sends the first man through with his tank behind him who then receives his tank first passed through by his buddy then receives his buddy's tank so he may then pass through, all choreographed in slow-mo while submerged in a swift current of zero visibility muddy water.
This is why a 2 km transit is 6 hours one way
Musk had no fucking idea of the conditions and if he did then he is a sociopath, manipulating the public's emotions with delusions and false promises
It probably is dangerous. It is certainly untested. It probably is unnecessary.
But none of that is a reason not to construct the capsule. If it turns out to be unnecessary, then nothing has been harmed. If it gets to Thailand on time and the rescuers choose to try to use it, then presumably they will feel that it is their best option at the time.
Having more options doesn't hurt anything.
mjeffer
You do have to remember that some of the kids and very possibly the coach, though I'm not sure if this would be big enough for him, may not be strong enough to make the swim. If they're not, the full mask method isn't a good option. Not that I see this as a great option but at least people are trying.
battlebottle wrote:
That works quite well for unmanned rockets and unlimited schedules/budgets, but for anything that requires a high probability of success the first time out, not so much.
You realise he makes cars too? They are actually among the safest on the market. I think you're making a huge leap to assume he and his entire SpaceX engineering team don't know how to engineer something for safety.
Until they burn like a Roman candle for 6 days in the tow company's wreck yard
Kyuu
Tribus: Central Valley, CA
That's a fair point of view. That's a decision to be made by those on the ground there, and I'm sure that they'd have no qualms telling Musk that the capsule is useless or worse if that's the case. His money and status isn't going to mean jack crap to them.
Hobo_Yoda wrote:
Yes. I am sure that you seeing a picture of something makes you far more of an expert than the people he had designing, fabricating and testing the potential solution. I am sure they never thought to get dimensions and just spit balled it to guess on how big to make the thing then spent many thousands of dollars building and flying it across the world.
Look, the tube may not be needed, but it certainly seems like a good faith effort to help, so stop complaining and making yourself into some kind of expert because you saw a damned picture
mjeffer wrote:
kgb999 wrote:
OK. This is objectively stupid. The thing is a big, rigid tube the length of of a service cart. It doesn't bend. I couldn't even get that thing in my upstairs back bedroom. It would never make it through a narrow, twisty cave.
Either Musk has no idea how a natural cave actually works or he's just milking this tragedy for his own publicity.
According to divers Musk/SpaceX spoke with, it would make it through the cave at the current size and shape. I don't see why so many people are assuming they know more about the shape of the cave more than Musk and his team. Maybe the divers are mistaken, but I wouldn't presume so.
How do you reconcile that with the fact that multiple navy seals - who carried out the tasks - have asserted that even maneuvering oxygen tanks through the cave is a major challenge?
They didn't even consider using this thing for a reason. You guys are so up Musk's backside it's eliminated your capacity for simple reason.
I think using this pod would cause a major challenge, mostly because if there is an unforeseen issue with maneuverability, and with something cobbled together like this it is a possibility no matter how well they think they got the dimensions right, then it puts the rescue divers at great risk.
But you guys seriously need to stop with the Musk crap. We know you don't like him, we know you think he's the anti-christ...give it a rest. A lot of us are more interested in the technical aspects of the rescue (as a whole in my case and not just Musk's capsule) and could care less about anyone's personal feelings toward the guy. It just gets in the way of a constructive conversation.
They always show up. Like buzzing flies they just annoy and have no worth.
No hating here but this is a fucked idea that would endanger the rescuers maneuvering with 2 hands for themselves handling their air supply. Some many butthurt fanboys just because there are those calling this one fake news
CobraHunter
Bwah ha ha TOO LATE for your PR Stunt, U build EVERYTHING TOO LATE (like your Tesla's), those Kids would be dead by the time you finish anything! They've already started rescuing the Kids because the Thai's know Elon Schmuck is nothing but a PR Hunting Con-Artist. .... Hey Elon Schmuck, where's that Puerto Rico Electric Grid U Promised 4 years Ago??
The people complaining here, including myself, aren't complain about you guys because we're but hurt fanboys. We're complaining because we're tired of reading a page of worthless regurgitated complaints about Musk instead of the actually rescue and the merits of his idea. Some of you people really need to get over it. My ignore list is growing by the second.
tangent6 wrote:
typo:
Some diagrams online show one passageway narrowing to as little as 38 cm—about 15 inches—at its tightest point. We asked Musk if the cylinder would really fit through such a small space, and he responded on Twitter that the cylinder was 31 inches wide—just over a foot.
the cylinder was 31 inches wide—just over a foot.
the cylinder was 31 cm wide—just over a foot.
But by its length it is too long to pass up and over the pinch point in that passage. And what of the men wrangling this thing while managing their own air supply
Voix des Airs
Capsule or not you're just gonna tow them anyway. The capsule just makes that harder.
But by its length it is too long to pass up and over the pinch point in that passage.
Unless you're one of the rescue divers in the cave, you don't know that.
So please stop with the jibber jabber.
Don't get me wrong, as I've said, I think it's only suitable for a last ditch nothing else possible sort of effort, and that only if they would decide it wouldn't cause considerable risk to the divers. I'm just saying it's not as simple as just having them put a mask on. I can't imagine a diver pulling around a weak, semi-conscious kid through underwater caves with no visibility is exactly an easy for any of the parties involved either.
bvz_1
BuckyJoe wrote:
Wow! yet another episode in the saga "Musk, man-god" for the worshipers.
In the other thread I commented how the Musk sub was rejected for use, people of course down voted and claimed it was rejected because it just wasn't ready yet. Well it was ready, a picture of it leaked two days ago. But now you know why it was rejected, the thing would have never made it thru the complete passage used for the rescue and would have been very hard to handle.
You're like a fungus. Why not start spewing your garbage from the other thread about Musk 'interfering' with the rescue. You got voted off the thread, why not try it here?
Edit-BuckyBoy the World's Expert On Everything and noted Musk hater has arrived, folks. He's here to dominate the thread. Again
The ignore button is your friend. It's amazing how much better life gets just turning off certain people.
ryanmct wrote:
mhalpern wrote:
Murum aries attigit wrote:
Elon Musk just has the means to make his ideas come true and the inspiration to come up with successful ones.
I agree with the first part. I do not agree with the second part.
Pretty sure reusable VTVL rockets are successful.
Potentially they are (data is still coming in), but he didn't come up with it.
The DC-X, anyway, was just a milestone along a very long journey. One illuminated by genuinely bright mathematicians, scientists and engineers whose contributions are in actual journals.
Do you really have genuine doubt about VTVL orbital class rockets bring useful? No one claims he came up with it, but he was the first to achieve it starting from a time when many seasoned rocket engineers were publicly stating that such an concept would be impossible to implement in real life. It's hard to call it anything but an overwhelming success for Musk even if you don't believe it's profitable for SpaceX yet.
VTVL rockets are great for opening up LEO to a wider range of companies and entities. So no doubt the usefulness there.
The first VTVL demonstration attempt was in the 60's by Bell, but that wasn't for orbital insertion. The first successful commercial orbital VTVL rocket test actually goes to Blue Origin, but their flight was suborbital. But this was built on years of research and development by a variety of agencies.
But, stepping back and looking at it from a cost perspective, if the DOD is launching a 2Bn satellite, 200MM is chump change. Similarly, if NASA is launching a 8Bn space observatory, the launch platform is irrelevant. Nevermind that the F9 still has a non reusable configuration required for its heaviest lift capability.
So, engineers were saying that VTVL was impossible like engineers said the sound barrier couldn't be broken - they weren't. All anyone said is it wouldn't be economical for agencies like NASA or DOD to develop said capability. It is arguable, but those naysayers may have a point.
But back to SpaceX, they didn't come up with the VTVL rocket, they weren't first to do it, but they were first with a semi-production ready rocket (most 1st stages have been discarded and the new block 5 hasn't been reused yet....). So, they have started a more robust commercialization of LEO (because let's face it, LEO and Geo are already heavily commercialized...).
Quisquis
Yes, the divers handing cylinders to each other are incapable of managing a couple of additional cylinders...
Diver goes through
Diver's tank goes through
Sub goes through
Sub tank goes through
Diver tank goes through
P51Fan
It was an engineering exercise.
Yes, it was. And little more.
Musk's "problem" is that he engineers things the way developers code. Get an idea, create it, throw it out there, see how and where it breaks, then fix it.
Falcon 9 worked on the first try, so did FH, so did grasshopper, so did Dragon v1, so did Dragon 2 abort test (and almost certainly the full flight when it flies). So SpaceX is either really lucky or maybe they can make things that work on the first try when they need to.
You did not include Falcon 1 in your long list. Does not the "rescue capsule" more closely parallel Falcon 1 as a first of kind vs the others that were developed after competency within the associated domain was accrued?
You couldn't ask for a better bunch of kids to pull this off with the co operation and disciple instilled in them by their coaches and teachers and their training to work as a team.
Their demeanor and state of mind when they were found perched on that ledge after 9 days in total darkness clearly shows their coach a former novitiate Buddhist monk practiced in meditation kept them calm and together and mindful of their own part in their survival
These rescue divers are the best in the world and logistics and support appears to be balls to the wall. They've lowered the water to reduce the diving and had time to give some training with tthe most advanced equipment
Cut the crap with the Tony Stark superhero to the rescue.
The superheroes are already on scene with evetything they need and ready to go.
Swim them out.... this soccer team is up to the challenge
bmeacham
> 31 inches wide—just over a foot.
Huh? Do you mean 31 centimeters?
Lemurion
My personal thought is that it's quite possibly too long and may prove to not be at all suitable for the purpose. At the same time, it may fit and be the least bad available option for some of the weaker children.
If that's the case I'd rather it be there than have children die because it wasn't.
P51Fan wrote:
All this talk about engineering and how Musk's style is bad for putting humans in a prototype is dumb.
This is a straightforward idea, with straightforward engineering, and almost LEGO-like "plug together" manufacturing.
You could damn near make the thing at home.
Quisquis wrote:
This is a straightforward idea, with straightforward engineering, and almost LEGO like plug together manufacturing.
The engineering should be fairly straight forward. I have no doubt it's possible to design a contraption that would make this much safer and easier given a little more time and testing, which unfortunately they don't have either of those.
It looks like the divers have gone back in to take some more of the boys out. Hopefully this group makes it safely too.
ivekadi
Tribus: Bulgaria
Another update.
There is another, shorter pod being made.
A second one that is 30cm shorter is almost complete
According to divers who have made the passage, yes. However, we also made an exact replica that is inflatable, so that the entire path can be tested without risk of blockage.
bold is mine.
It` a pod replica, right?. (I thought initially that the path was being replicated)
So - the being stuck issue is largely solved.
sources: (Musk Twitter feed)
I've kept up a CNN page of live updates...my thoughts are with their safety.
At the end of the day, if the kids can stay calm on the dives, they'll be perfectly safe coming out with SCUBA gear.
AustraliaAustralia
Looking at the picture and hearing a bit about limit space, that tube seems about 2x as long as it needs to be.
el_oscuro
LtWiggledworth wrote:
Lee Vann wrote:
Who ever designed that has never gone cave diving. A ridged tube is not going to cut it. Far to many tight angles to navigate in even "easy dives". A flexible joint or three in it would go a long way to making it useful.
Far to many make a 45 degree angle left and while doing that do a 35 degree one down for 24 inches then up for 36, then make another 45 degree angle left in a 24 inch passage type choke points in caves.
Another company designed what was effectively a body bag with an air supply. That would be much simpler to manoeuvre than this rigid cylinder. And simpler to move when empty as it could be folded.
How flexible would it be when inflated to 20psi or whatever pressure is required counteract the water pressure, and what would happen if it caught on something and got torn?
Covered wrote:
Recommend the book "The Space Barons" for further enlightenment with regard to this topic. Rather entertaining section on Elon's response to Blue Origin with regard to who did what, when.
Bezos = Gradatim Ferocity and keep a low profile.
Nonsense. I am a big fan of BO but New Shepard is 100% a suborbital rocket. The New Shepard booster was never designed to reach orbital velocity, it can never reach orbital velocities, it couldn't be used as part of a larger multistage rocket to achieve orbital velocities (completely wrong mass fractions for that).
But back to SpaceX, they didn't come up with the VTVL rocket, they weren't first to do it
they were the first to successfully land and later reuse the first stage of an orbital rocket which is what matter for the future economics of orbital rockets.
Last edited by Statistical on Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:04 pm
Seriously you are making an equivalency between a metal tube with a water tight hatch and an orbital launch vehicle?
I built my own dive canister for a PLB (personal locator beacon) because they wanted $300 for one. Maybe I should try to build my own orbital launch vehicle.
Considering these kids have remained calm so far, I have a feeling they'll be able to do it on the dive. I'm more concerned with their physical condition in regards to making the dive. Though I do have to assume the rescuers know exactly what they're dealing with, with each kid, and have made a plan to make it out accordingly.
He's a smart guy, but he's way out of his depth here. The best way he could have helped was to make his resources available, not make a public spectacle of kitbashing something that might technically work, but be operationally impossible to implement.
I'm just glad the people running the show didn't buy into the image and sit around waiting for him to deliver a miracle.
I think you described engineering. If that's a 'problem' then so be it. Almost nothing done the first time has 'a high probability of success'. Of course, 'success' is subjective.
His comment was likely more of a comment on agile development process where sub systems and systems are not necessarily tested for every conceivable set of inputs or conditions. This is a development process very much so born from web development where 80% solution before your competitor is better than the 99.999% solution after your competitor. Because no one dies when a payment system crashes....
That engineering philosophy was abandoned decades or centuries ago in more traditional engineering disciplines.
Yes, but Falcon 1 had multiple failures on the early flights, even "simple" things are not so simple without some debugging. Have you ever rebuilt a low-pressure scuba regulator? Looks simple till it does not work and then simple things become big problems. Best to use the KISS principle which is what is being done.
compgeek89 wrote:
Because Elon Musk.
The unreasonable hatred of the guy is astounding.
They talked to people on site, they tried to help, they didn't get in the way or cause problems.
What is the fucking problem here?
Oh, It's the guy who used his own money to start a rocket company, build a team of engineers to figure out how to land rockets successfully, is driving the cost of lithium batteries down, has majority ownership in a company that makes EVs, etc. etc.
People hate Musk for the same reason they hate the New York Yankees, Steve Jobs or the LA Lakers - successful people are a threat to people who aren't.
ProTip people, You do not suck becasue Musk is successful. You suck becasue you suck. Deal with it.
At least the guy tried to contribute, on his own dime. What have you done this weekend to try to help others?
Seriously you are making an equivalency between metal tube with a water tight hatch and an orbital launch vehicle?
My old man is a television repairman, he's got this ultimate set of tools. When do we start?
AlexisR200X
Illusive Man wrote:
Isn't the actual rescuing happening right now with inflated bladders to keep the kids safe with divers push/pulling them out?
Why is this getting more press than a bunch of guys in a LA pool testing something when the actual rescue is ACTIVELY happening?
I thought they've already gotten 4 kids out and are proceeding?
They're diving out with the kids swimming. That's the plan unless they can't physically do it. Musk is just trying to provide another option if all else fails. More than likely it won't even get there in time, even if it would be useful (which is certainly not a given).
This I agree with. This is one of the things that even if it isn't used this time around, its still good that it has been made. Who knows when something terrible like this happens again? It could be just the thing that saves the day then and its already manufactured and ready.
With 7+billion people walking the Earth accidents and disasters are an ever present risk even if its relatively low. Ultimately if its never used, Musk could put it on display somewhere or perhaps sell it/auction it off for charity. It might even make a fine collectible for someone out there as its an interesting one off piece of hardware with an interesting history behind it.
"The first launch attempt of Falcon 1 on 19 December 2005 was scrubbed when a faulty valve caused a vacuum in the first stage fuel tank which sucked inward and caused structural damage requiring the replacement of first stage."
Simple thing that did not work. The "rescue capsule" would need a very similar simple thing to equalize pressure over the depth that it has to operate at or bad things happen.
Dolanator
Amazing. He is really going to save those kids. Is there anything this man can't do? How can the rest of the world even compete with the technological genius of Elon Musk?
Operative Me
Tribus: Apx 1.496 x 10 ^8 kilometers NW of Sol
You should. But only one big enough to put a PLB in orbit.