Okay, I am fine with picking the winners' side.
How much do I want to bet, or how much am I thinking?
Assuming it's the latter, look at the sales of the other games. Even the weakest entry did nearly 500K in Japan. I think that having gone a hiatus will eliminate some possible burnout, and with that combined with the overall success of the Switch and a relatively light release schedule atm, I'd be surprised if it does under 500K worldwide. As for 250K, it could probably hit that in its first month.
You might want to look at the series sales again
https://sites.google.com/site/gamedatalibrary/game-search
Blue/Red Rescue Team (2005)-1477k
Explorers of Time/Darkness (2007)-1552k
Explores of Sky (2009)-448k
Gates to Infinity (2012)-405k
Super Mystery Dungeon (2015)-296k
Switch boost only applies to the West where 3DS did mediocre, it doesn't apply to Japan where it is the 3rd best selling platform of all time.
You can see this by comparing Switch to 3DS entries like 2D Zelda, Fire Emblem, Kirby, Yoshi, Donkey Kong, Luigi's Mansion, etc.
I missed Super Mystery Dungeon. This site has it at 350, and gates to Infinity at 470. That site seems sketchy, or at least not updated often enough, because the numbers here from Famitsu are a lot higher than the numbers they're giving for Switch games.
Based on this week's numbers, Star Allies is ahead of Triple Deluxe, and is still in the top 30, so it will most likely outsell it comfortably.
Based on that site, Tropical Freeze and returns had nearly identical openings, and we don't yet know which will end up selling higher in the long run.
Super Mario Party is outselling the shit out of of either 3DS entry. Or both combined for that matter.
Mario Odyssey will almost certainly outsell 3D Land by a comfortable margin.
Mario Kart 8 is a lock to outsell MK7.
Smash Ultimate already outsold 3DS and will almost certainly outsell 3DS and U by a sizable margin.
Sonic and Mario looks likely to outsell the 3DS entries.
Captain Toad Switch has outsold 3DS.
Luigi's Mansion is way behind, but is still selling incredibly well, so we can't say which will sell better.
There's some variation on a game by game basis, because Link Between Worlds was just better than Link's awakening for example and Mario Party makes more sense on Switch, but overall it seems that software sales are better on the Switch from all of the examples I could think of. Still very much willing to bet that it will sell at least 250K.
That site isnt sketchy, it uses data from famitsu.
You are missing the point, there is no big Switch boost in Japan like there is in the West where almost every game does significantly better, most are in the same general range as 3DS entries with some slightly below and some slightly ahead.
The few titles that are significantly higher on Switch are for specific reasons like the game being a massive improvement over previous entries like Smash Ultimate/Breath of the Wild/Super Mario Party or because they released when 3DS was dead like Captain Toad.
Mystery Dungeon has been on a massive decline and Japan typically doesnt get as excited about nostalgia to the extent that the West does so a 15 year old remake is not likely to reverse the decline.
Regardless this is all besides the point, which was that Mystery Dungeon DX is a significantly smaller release than NSMBU Deluxe.
Like I said, either sketchy or not updated often enough. If they're using Famitsu, it's the latter. They have Luigi's Mansion at about 300K where it's over 500 in the most recent Famitsu. That's a few weeks, which is kind of a big deal when your examples are using really recent games.
You were fine bringing up Link's Awakening vs Link Between Worlds when the latter is significantly better, but then complain about bringing up Mario Party or Smash? That's trying to have it both ways. I don't know enough about Japan to judge how nostalgic they are, but a lot of remakes have seemed to do well there. A lot of times a long break is what a tired out series needs to get out of a rut.
I dont see how it's both ways, Links Awakening vs Between Worlds are going to be pretty similar in the end. One being a remake of a 20+ year old game and the other a direct sequel of a 20+ year old game.
But again this is missing the point, in the West you can expect almost any new entry to do significantly better on Switch than they did on 3DS simply because Switch is a mainstream success while 3DS was a moderate success in these regions.
This does not apply to Japan where 3DS is the 3rd highest selling system of all time so games were not held back by the platform. Sone games do better, some do worse and many do similar. It all depends on the individual game.
Whether or not this game reverses the decline is irrelevant to the what I was talking about, this game is going to sell a fraction of what NSMBU did.
I didn't comment on what you said about NSMBU. I commented on when you said this game would be lucky to sell 250k. That's a statement that can stand on its own.
Link Between Worlds is simply a better game. Higher metacritic average, higher user score, more liked by the community is etc. I have no idea why we should expect similar sales from them just because they're both somehow liked to older games when one is a lot better. If Smash is disqualified because Ultimate is a significantly better game, then Link Between World's can't count because that's a significantly better game.
Aside from Fire Emblem, and possibly DK and Yoshi depending on legs, Switch is coming out ahead with every other comparison that I can think of by at least about 100K (You can add Mario Tennis to that list, Octopath Traveller which is outselling either Bravely game) , even in cases like Kirby where the game is not significantly better. It could all just be due to other factors, but when it keeps happening, it seems likely that the Switch is the common denominator.
At any rate, I probably don't feel like arguing the point any further. I'll just make a mental note to bump this thread around May or June so one of us will have to eat crow.
Yeah I'd say TMS is definitely NOT a notable release. Beyond being a re-release of a Wii U game from years ago, it's also a niche title that received a mixed reception and sold just 330k lifetime.
Isn't it just a remaster of the first game?
It's a remake, but it's still a game with relevance for hardware sales, albeit to a small degree.
We've gone from nothing between now and Animal Crossing to something during that timeframe. Of course it's no NSMBU Deluxe.