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Laying Hamilton is the smart play in Brazil
Lewis Hamilton has won five Formula One races in a row to build a 24-point championship lead over Nico Rosberg but anyone who back the Briton at odds on to win the Brazilian Grand Prix does not understand the importance of value.
Sure, Hamilton could take out the Brazilian Grand Prix since he is the superior of the two Mercedes drivers and everyone agrees that the Silver Arrows machines are the best on the grid. But Hamilton has an appalling Brazilian Grand Prix, local meteorologists are forecasting heavy rain over the weekend and, because of the state of play in the Formula One title race, the Briton will not try any risky manreoruves if he finds himself second behind Rosberg at Interlagos.
Because Formula One officials sanctioned the ridiculous call to award double points in the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix – 50 for first, 36 for second, 30 for third, 24 for fourth, 20 for fifth, 16 for sixth, 12 for seventh, eight for eighth, four for ninth and two for 10th – Hamilton's mind will be on maintaining a useful lead over Rosberg. To cut a long story short – and there are a million possible permutations – Hamilton knows that consecutive second places will mean that he wins his second Formula One title.
One thinks that if Hamilton has got any sense then he will approach the Brazilian Grand Prix with extreme caution even if the rain holds off. And, if it chucks it down during the Interlagos event then surely Hamilton will take it easy and drive to maintain pole position, so to speak, in the main game going into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in two weeks time.
Punters who have access to betting exchange accounts could do a lot worse than lay Hamilton to win the Brazilian Grand Prix provided that they do so before qualifying and get odds against for their money. Hamilton's Brazilian Grand Prix numbers should be sufficient to put us anyone thinking about piling into him at odds of 67/100 1.67 -149 0.67 -1.49 0.67 with BetVictor to win the race. Hamilton finished seventh on his Brazilian Grand Prix debut in 2007 and since then his form figures are fifth, retired, fourth, retired, retired and ninth. One will give some credit to Hamilton, though, because he was leading the 2012 Brazilian Grand Prix when Nico Hulkenberg hit him.
Again, given the state of the Formula One championship, it makes sense to snap up the long odds about a team other than Mercedes winning the Brazilian Grand Prix. Even if Rosberg crashed out of the Brazilian Grand Prix on the first lap, Hamilton cannot clinch the title at Interlagos. Those 50 points up for grabs in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix mean that a Hamilton win in the Brazilian Grand Prix and a Rosberg blank would leave the Briton requiring a top-10 finish in the desert. Hamilton would be one point shy of his target.
Red Bull is the only non-Mercedes team to win a Formula One race this year – Daniel Ricciardo took the chequered flag first in Belgium, Canada and Hungary – plus Sebastian Vettel is the defending Brazilian Grand Prix champion. Bet365 is offering odds of 11/1 12.00 +1100 11.00 11.00 -0.09 that Red Bull celebrates Brazilian Grand Prix success for the fifth time in six seasons. In the circumstance, that feels like an excellent longshot wager.
What one has seen this year is that Red Bull is not far off Mercedes in the rain so lay Hamilton, back Ricciardo and Vettel and starting praying for the heavens to open.
Red Bull to win Brazilian Grand Prix
9th November 14:00 GMT
Odds: 11/1 12.00 +1100 11.00 11.00 -0.09
Where to Bet: Bet365
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