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Trump knew of Kim's invitation long before it was received
The paper trail leading to the North Korea-US summit is longer than thought, but some Americans worry that Trump may be played by the wily Kim
by Robert E. McCoy March 13, 2018 February 18, 2020
South Korea's national security chief, Chung Eui-yong, briefs US President Donald Trump at the Oval Office about his visit to North Korea, in Washington on March 8. Photo: Presidential Blue House / Yonhap via Reuters
Media around the world have reacted with astonishment at how quickly the summit between North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and American President Donald Trump appears to have been agreed upon. However, prior to the surprise announcement on the White House lawn, there were signs – not widely reported – that something was afoot.
Kim is always probing for advantage in his dealings with Seoul and Washington and his advisors saw the environment in South Korea with the liberal Moon administration as ripe – but to be sure, other factors were also at play. For convenience, here is a brief recap of the more salient dynamics:
Sanctions are likely starting to bite and Kim seeks relief
Fear of a US military attack is high since Trump is seen as a "madman"
Kim is attempting to break the Seoul–Washington alliance
Kim is now confident that his strategic arms programs have borne fruit
The Moon administration and the Olympics provided an opportunity
Kim's physical or mental health is affecting his judgment.
As psychologists say, behavior is frequently overdetermined; that is to say, there is generally more than one proximate cause for a person's actions. That is likely the case with the peace overtures from the North at this time: more than one reason applies.
But even knowing the impetus does not answer the question of how the mooted summit between Trump and Kim transpired so quickly.
Back-channel preparations
In fact, it was not so sudden. The media did not connect the dots regarding events that did not get a lot of coverage.
For example, a one-sentence statement last month by the US Department of State on its site announced that Acting (and nominated to be) Assistant Secretary for Far East Asian and Pacific Affairs was traveling to Berlin to brief counterparts in Europe on issues of common concern. With European countries maintaining embassies and ambassadors in Washington, one wonders why the face-to-face meetings requiring an international trip was so necessary.
Moreover, there was a report that Trump's National Security Advisor secretly met with officials from both South Korea and Japan in San Francisco in January. Ostensibly, the officials who attended discussed the recent political rapprochement between Pyongyang and Seoul. This is starting to sound like a back-channel communications effort.
The North sent a coterie of high-level envoys – including the deputy director of the US Division at Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry, Choe Kang Il – to the Pyeongchang Games in February. And first Daughter Ivanka Trump was accompanied by Allison Hooker, the US National Security Council's Korea director, who was not listed as one of the American delegates.
That things are now falling into place after extensive behind-the-scenes preparation is strongly indicated by a report that Trump knew of Kim's invitation long before it was received.
Pyongyang's plan; Washington's weakness
One of the North's objectives at least as far back as 1973 has been to entangle the South in a confederation of sorts, an economic and political arrangement that Pyongyang feels would eventually lead to unification of the peninsula on its terms.
A recent report citing sources inside the reclusive North claims that Kim has abandoned the confederation plan of his grandfather and has instead developed a new unification plan based on the "One Country, Two Systems" arrangement between China and Hong Kong.
But even if the policy is different, this is yet more substantiation that there has been no practical change over three generations regarding the ultimate goal of Pyongyang. That goal remains the reunification of the Korean Peninsula – a constant theme in state propaganda and amply referenced in Kim's now-famous New Year's broadcast.
"Deal Maker" Trump knows next to nothing about Asia in general and has little appreciation of the varied factors at play on the Korean Peninsula. While he may indeed be a shrewd negotiator, he is inexperienced when it comes to the machinations and obfuscations routinely employed by Pyongyang.
Perceived as craving success, President Trump is motivated to get a groundbreaking deal with North Korea – something that not even ersatz Nobel Peace Prize-winning President Barack Obama, not to mention any other presidential forebear, successfully accomplished.
As always, though, when one wants a deal badly enough, what one gets is a bad deal.
In view of all the media hyperbole that is running rampant these days, the words of satirical poet Lewis Carroll may be relevant:
Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!
Imaginative readers can figure out which actors play which parts.
Tagged: Allison Hooker, Arts & Culture, Choe Kang Il, Denuclearization, Donald Trump, Economy, Entertainment, Food & Drink, Ivana Trump, Jabberwock, Kim Jong Un, Korean Summit, Korean unification, Moon Jae-in, Politics, Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, Pyongyang US ties, Sport, Summit, talks
9 replies on "Trump knew of Kim's invitation long before it was received"
Kevin Connolly says:
Just another "OPINION"———–everyone has one!!
Michael Bagala says:
Trump meets Kim = Simp meets Blimp
Francis Chow says:
Kim would be very stupid to give up his nukes. Better delay, wait for the USA / China trade war, and abandonment of sanctions enforcement by China. In the long term, can the Korean peninsula be reunited ? Probably not since it is on no ones interest.
Richard Arlen says:
MR MC COY OF THE CIA ;NOT TO WORRY WENDY SHERMAN LET THE CAT OUT OF THE BAG ON THE AMANPOUR SHOW LAST NIGHT. THEY ARE GOING TO PUT THE ZIONIST WARMONGER JOHN BOLTON AS POINT MAN AND SHE ALSO STATED THAT IF THE TRUMP/BOLTON S TRY AND MAKE IT A ONE SIDED DEAL WITHOUT CONSIDERATION OF THE NORTH ,WAR IS EMMINENT.
Galen Linder says:
It is interesting that there is concern in some quarters that Trump may be outmaneuvered by Kim. What would that look like? Something like this. NK gives up its nukes in exchange for removal of sanctions, peace treaty, and removal of all foreign forces from the Korean peninsula. Bad, very bad. The US loses a major piece on the global chess board. No perch from which to threaten China AND Russia. No "regular" Republican or Democrat would go for such a deal. That is why the pot is always kept brewing there. Now, the US is entering these negotiations in a relatively weakened condition, and whatever Trump's weaknesses, that is more of a symptom than a cause.
Michael Chan says:
Kim JongUn is not keen to meet with Trump under the conditions set by USA. Kim will meet Trump under the conditions set by North Korea. The North Korean conditions will be, first, the removal of all American soldiers out of Korea; and, second, payment of compensation by USA to Korea for all the wrongs that USA has done to Korea.
Chien Ting Chin says:
NK is negociating from a position of strength. Trump has no choice but to make a deal. Iran, Cuba, NK, next will be Russia. LOL
Haav Bline says:
Very flimsy. Nothing concrete at all.
George Ohrwell says:
Not one word about Bush II's tearing apart the Agreed framework reached with Clinton.
Don't worry, sanctions will bite. Up to 60,000 North Korean children will die according to the UNICEF.