Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

central_bank_republic_of_turkey

sentences stringlengths 40 425	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.02k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
(1) advanced countries: australia, canada, czechia, denmark, euro area, japan, new zealand, norway, south korea, sweden, the united kingdom, the united states of america.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,023	705
although the recovery in the european economy affects the external demand positively, ongoing geopolitical developments and the slowdown in global trade restrict the export growth.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	921
in this period, prices of core goods excluding clothing and durables increased dramatically due to the exchange rate pass-through.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	158
overall, the favorable developments in the terms of trade and the moderate course of consumer loans contribute to the improvement in the current account balance, while the relatively weaker exports limit this improvement.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	654
despite the hikes in fuel and municipal water prices, annual energy inflation declined.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	822
in the same period, turkish lira commercial loans remained on a mild growth path, at an average four-week growth rate of 0.21%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	43
stickiness in services inflation, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and food prices keep inflation pressures alive.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	189
with the help of falling food prices, headline inflation is expected to display a decline in the short term.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	869
business tendency survey data suggest that domestic orders registered an increase from the previous quarter’s average, while export orders were relatively weaker.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	987
in this period, annual inflation edged down in restaurants-hotels, but increased in other subcategories, more markedly in transport and rent.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	467
meanwhile, monthly price increases in core goods excluding clothing and durable goods gained momentum.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	257
while unprocessed food prices remained flat, the rise in egg prices stood out, and pulse prices, which displayed a significant increase in the first half of the year, declined.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	658
global pmi indices indicate that the services sector activity remains robust, while the manufacturing industry continues to follow a flat course just below the threshold value since the last quarter of last year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	754
in addition to soaring house prices and the backward-indexation behavior, imbalances between supply and demand in the real estate market affect consumer inflation negatively by pushing rent increases upwards.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	632
moreover, the increase in the volatility of oil prices triggered by geopolitical developments remains as a potential risk factor for inflation.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	426
in the restaurants-hotels subgroup, prices increased 2.81% driven mainly by catering services, while the decline in accommodation prices continued.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	288
however, inflationary effects arising from disruptions in supply chains persist.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	70
the recent trend of upsurge in the clothing and footwear group lost sizeable momentum due to lockdown effects, and annual inflation declined by 5.40 points to 5.56%.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	167
annual inflation decreased in clothing, but increased in other subcategories.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	102
annual inflation increased in clothing and footwear and other core goods, but declined slightly in durable goods.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	250
annual core goods inflation climbed by 1.08 points to 21.92% in june.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	832
recent indicators suggest that the depreciation in the turkish lira and the repercussions through confidence channel may lead to a slowdown in domestic demand in the first quarter of the year.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	916
annual inflation in these groups stood at 20.18% and 39.07%, respectively.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	763
the substantial april-may price hikes were replaced by a slowdown in june across categories where exchange rate pass-through to prices is relatively faster, such as home appliances and automobiles.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	84
on the other hand, gold prices rose due to exchange rate effects and international developments, keeping annual inflation in this group elevated.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	295
loan growth balanced at historical levels in the third quarter, as the loans guaranteed by the credit guarantee fund almost reached the pre-determined upper limit.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	125
accordingly, the fall in industrial employment is likely to be temporary.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	845
in august, consumer prices rose by 0.86% and annual inflation remained flat at 11.77%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	191
long-term interest rates fell to historic lows across advanced economies, and both central bank statements and market expectations suggest that the low-rate environment is likely to continue for a long period.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	617
monetary, financial and fiscal measures introduced to address the pandemic as well as the expansion of loan supply, mostly by state-owned banks, seem to have mitigated downside risks to loan growth and contributed to the uninterrupted flow of credit to the real sector.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	64
in short, economic activity is expected to post a quarterly fall in the third quarter.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	709
in sum, consumer prices in november reflect tax cuts, the appreciation in the turkish lira, and falling oil prices as well as demand-side effects led by weaker economic activity.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	247
while the effects of high global inflation on inflation expectations and international financial markets are closely monitored, central banks in advanced economies assess that the rise in inflation on the back of rising energy prices and imbalances between supply and demand may last longer than previously anticipated.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	434
annual inflation decreased across all groups, being more pronounced in the energy group.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	362
pmi data for april point to a sustained rise in export orders and a partial deceleration in domestic orders.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	215
cost increases during the period when activities were interrupted passed through to prices, while the increasing demand, triggered by capacity constraints, was another factor that put pressure on prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	879
thus, economic activity is likely to grow modestly over the upcoming period.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	985
the committee maintained its assessment that global inflationary pressures increase data sensitivity in monetary policies and global financial markets in turn, which may lead to volatilities.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	652
the effects on aggregate demand conditions, of production and employment incentives and measures to boost the credit market, will be closely monitored in the upcoming period.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	316
annual inflation rose to 39.83% in the unprocessed food group, and to 47.57% in the processed food group.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	489
despite the recent depreciation in the turkish lira due to global developments, international commodity prices, especially crude oil and metal prices, affect inflation outlook favorably.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	89
the seasonally adjusted three-month average increases in the b and c indices were measured at 4.8% and 5.4%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	977
while the rise in food inflation stemmed from both unprocessed and processed food prices, the rise in core goods inflation was mainly driven by durable goods.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	199
meanwhile, the services and construction turnover indices, along with retail sales posted monthly and quarterly increases in july.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	277
similarly, interviews with firms for april imply that consumption spending is losing momentum due to the demand brought forward in the previous quarter and the extended holiday.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	878
communication services, which are subject to price rigidities arising from contracts, have a similar effect, and price increases in this subgroup remain strong.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	789
in sum, data on the second quarter of 2015 suggest a mild course in economic activity.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	408
meanwhile, the monthly rate of increase in rents, which had been high for a while, slowed somewhat in july.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	865
the current level of the commodity price index is 20.8% above the average of the previous ten years.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	148
in the rents subgroup, in which the backward-indexation behavior is strong and the sector-specific supply-demand imbalances continue to be observed, the monthly increase was 7.91%, and annual inflation reached 100.7%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	894
prices of services increased by 0.38 percent, and the annual services inflation receded by 0.20 point to 8.86 percent in march.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	37
the distribution of 12-month-ahead inflation expectations points to a shift of the distribution to the left, while indicators related to the dispersion of expectations, such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation, remained at a similar course to the previous month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	776
prices of services increased by 0.17 percent, and annual services inflation rose by 0.16 points to 8.80 percent in november.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	380
in october, consumer prices rose by 2.13%, while annual inflation increased by 0.14 points to 11.89%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	851
on the retail loans side, general-purpose loan rates (excluding overdraft accounts) increased by 26 basis points to 74.59%, while housing loan rates remained flat at 43.48%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	697
in november, annual inflation in food and nonalcoholic beverages increased by 3.04 points to 15.78 percent in november.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	814
in may, while energy prices increased by 0.25%, the decline in the municipal water tariff contained a further rise in prices.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	904
while annual inflation declined in durable goods and clothing-footwear groups, it increased in other core goods.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	252
going ahead, industrial production and survey indicators signal a mild increase in employment.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	929
regarding portfolio flows to emerging economies, bond and equity markets have both continued to register outflows in july in line with the global risk appetite.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,022	611
having weakened after the first quarter of 2014, nonfarm employment posted notable gains during august-october period.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	500
moreover, uncertainties remain regarding the possible effects of the pandemic and health measures on consumption habits and general spending behavior.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	163
reinforced perceptions that policy rates will remain low in advanced economies and stimulus packages are likely to improve the positive outlook in portfolio flows to emerging economies in the upcoming period.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	280
the committee noted the important role of commodity prices in continuing inflationary pressures despite the appreciation in the turkish lira, and reiterated the upside risks for the upcoming months.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	942
in the non-bank corporate sector, this ratio was around 93%.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,024	596
by sectors, employment picked up slightly in services and construction but declined in the industrial sector for the third period in a row.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	604
in seasonally-adjusted terms, national income maintained its robust growth, posting an increase by 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	217
recent developments such as rising geopolitical risks, the course of energy prices, diverging economic growth outlooks across countries, increases in us long-term interest rates and portfolio outflows from emerging markets suggest that uncertainties regarding the global economy are increasing.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	395
the escalating geopolitical risks were adversely realized in the first half of the year and caused a weakening in the worldwide economic activity.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	997
credit growth and allocation of funds for real economic activity purposes are closely monitored.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	475
the current course of inflation expectations and the deterioration in pricing behavior keep the upside risks to the inflation outlook alive.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	203
due to the first half’s weaker exports and rising consumption demand, the current account balance ceased to improve.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	850
in addition to commercial loans, consumer loans exhibit a milder course.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	963
global growth forecasts for the upcoming period are being revised downwards and recession is increasingly assessed as an inevitable risk factor.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	982
industrial and services employment grew in this period, whereas construction employment declined.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	445
although energy price developments continue to affect inflation favorably, cumulative exchange rate movements delay the improvement in the core inflation trend.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	507
despite the increase in the foreign trade deficit led by the surge in commodity prices, mainly energy prices, the ongoing uptrend in services revenues continue to support the current account balance.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	645
coupled with international crude oil prices and exchange rate developments, the sct adjustment brought about a significant increase in fuel prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	196
yet, recent data show that exports and imports of goods were largely affected by the july turbulence.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	708
effects of the additional tightening steps on pricing behavior, expectations and the inflation outlook will continue to be closely monitored.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	785
the cbrt will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	423
annual food inflation continued to climb while exchange rate changes seemed to be passed through to all items, especially to core goods and energy.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	683
in this period, the impact of the adjustments in natural gas prices proved evident, and fuel prices also increased in tandem with the developments in the exchange rate and oil prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	415
in this period, lockdown measures led to interruptions in economic activity in certain sectors, which recorded only limited price increases, in turn.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	895
in january, annual core goods inflation increased by 7.94 points to 48.49%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	693
thus, annual producer inflation continued to decline.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	993
the pass-through from these factors to consumer prices is particularly strong in times of deteriorating inflation expectations.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	781
in transport services, increases in urban passenger transport, air passenger transport and cargo fees were notable, while the decline in intercity passenger transport by road kept subgroup’s price increase moderate, and annual inflation edged down by 0.42 points to 90.29%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	400
among sub-groups, annual inflation in durable consumption goods rose by around 2 points to 4.66 percent in this period.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	132
on the other hand, current indicators show that machinery-equipment investments have been improving since the third quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	55
when the provisional foreign trade data for july is considered along with the high frequency data for august, the three-month average trends imply a moderate fall in exports and a rise in imports.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	981
in tandem with the subsided global economic activity, crude oil prices remained flat since the previous mpc meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	847
these factors are closely monitored in terms of their potential impacts on financial markets and domestic economic activity through both capital flows and international trade.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	193
therefore, it is evaluated that the intense cost-push pressures in the third quarter have been largely reflected on prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	696
the bts data on production over the last three months and the pmi indicators point to a moderate monthly growth for october.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	431
turkish lira deposit rates have increased by 1071 basis points since the previous mpc meeting week and reached 60.34% on .	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	620
in this period, annual inflation receded in clothing-footwear and other core goods groups, but rose in durable goods.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	660
the global supply chain pressure index was close to its historical trend in january, while international transportation costs increased due to the geopolitical developments concerning the red sea.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	388
in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group, annual inflation fell by 7.70 points to 9.52% in september.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	177
the cbrt will continue to monitor the effects of the pandemic on the turkish economy and use the tools at its disposal in pursuit of its price stability and financial stability objectives.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/central_bank_republic_of_turkey

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Central Bank of Turkey.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The central_bank_republic_of_turkey dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}