Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

central_bank_of_china_taiwan

sentences stringlengths 32 571	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.02k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
a number of board directors believed that the bank should continue to monitor changes in housing prices, and gave their views on the indicators helpful in making the decision to adopt selective credit controls	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	705
one board director stated that monetary policy-making needs to take into account public perception of prices	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	921
domestic inflation is expected to come down moderately in the second half of the year, bringing the inflation rate to around 2 in the fourth quarter	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	158
as manufacturing activity and trade gradually picked up, global economic growth is expected to rebound from the low level of last year	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	654
in terms of international financial market trends since august 2022, as the federal reserve fed and the european central bank ecb signaled for further tightening, the u.s. and german10-year government bond yields both rebounded	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	822
however, an upturn in the annual growth rate of housing loans from the second half of 2023 onwards caused real estate lending to take up a large share in total bank lending	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	43
given the current economic and financial situation, the director supported a 25 bps rate hike and suggested to continue monitoring the feds rate path, global economic developments, and domestic price trends while prudently formulating monetary policy	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	189
the board decided to raise the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations by 0.125 percentage points to 2, 2.375, and 4.25, respectively, effective march 22, 2024	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	869
domestic demand, on the other hand, gained support from private consumption thanks to the lifting of pandemic- related restrictions and the universal surplus tax rebates as well as other stimulus schemes under the governments special budget for post-pandemic economic recovery	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	987
at the meeting today, the board decided unanimously to keep the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations unchanged at 1.125, 1.5, and 3.375, respectively	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	467
rising prices for agricultural products and energy items could further exacerbate inflation next year	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	257
moreover, as the domestic market already had ample liquidity, raising the policy rates could attract capital inflows and further buoy up liquidity	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	658
in the housing market, recent data showed housing trading cooled down, while real estate lending continued to post slower year-on-year growth, albeit with a still high outstanding balance	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	754
citing the recent uptrend in construction-related financing, one of the board directors expressed support for the adjustment to reduce the ltv caps to as low as 40, stating that the timely tightening of selective credit controls would help restrain property speculation	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	632
period were lower than the same period last year	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,023	426
another board director stated that the bank should closely monitor the changes in the housing market and would better act preemptively before public expectations of home-price rises become palpable	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	288
in view of this assessment, it would be appropriate not to raise the policy rates	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	70
survey data on inflation expectations showed more corporate respondents anticipating inflation above 2.5 within 12 months, reflecting rising international raw material prices and domestic price hikes	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	167
in this economic context, it would be necessary for the bank to maintain its policy stance with further rate hikes	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	102
one board director noted that exports vital role in the economy makes taiwan closely interconnected with, and susceptible to, the world economy	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	250
for the second half of the year, despite sluggish investment growth, exports would likely regain momentum from reduced inventory levels in global supply chains, while domestic demand continues to firm up thanks to solid private consumption growth and the governments newly- launched initiative to promote post-pandemic economic resilience and to share growth results nationwide with a universal surplus tax rebate program; it is therefore expected that economic growth would rebound in the latter half of 2023	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	832
in january 2023, a flow of currency back into the banking system after the lunar new year holidays caused interest rates of bank and money markets to fluctuate within a tight range	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	916
meanwhile, sme loans granted by banks under the facility during the aforementioned period 20200401 20210704 will remain eligible for the facilitys preferential interest rates until june 30, 2022	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	763
for this year as a whole, the bank forecasts the cpi and core cpi annual growth rates to be -0.20 and 0.24, respectively appendix table 2	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	84
while a rate hike is warranted, stronger arguments exist for a 0.25 percentage point hike	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	295
manufacturing and non- manufacturing sentiment for the outlook for the next six months also became cautious	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	125
discussions on housing prices, residential rent, and consumer price measurement one board director noted that although tax policies may be the most effective tool to tamp down housing prices, as repeatedly stressed by the bank and supported by some researches, this does not keep monetary authorities on the sidelines when housing prices continue to surge	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	845
therefore, selective credit control would be the right way to foster a sound real estate market	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	191
meanwhile, raising the rrrs by 0.25 percentage points was to require banks to increase the reserves they already retain and the impact on banking operations should be limited	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	617
the us dollar index rebounded and major currencies broadly depreciated against the us dollar	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	64
domestic inflation has been stabilizing and the output gap is expected to be modestly negative next year	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	709
firms also expressed optimism about the outlook in the coming six months	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	247
the pandemics impact on the labor market has waned	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	434
against the backdrop of the domestic economic recovery and stable inflation, the cbc has continued to conduct open market operations to manage market liquidity and maintain banks excess reserves at a sufficiently accommodative level	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	362
as to private consumption, tightened containment measures in response to the domestic covid-19 flareup restrained consumer spending from mid-may onwards	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	215
one board director contended that, aside from inflation and the unemployment rate, exchange rate movements also play a key role in monetary policy-making	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	879
inflation projections by domestic and foreign institutions ranged from 2.20 to 3.80	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	985
against the backdrop of intense inflationary pressures and significant downside risks faced by the global economy, the bank will closely monitor implications for domestic price trends resulting from the russia-ukraine conflict and other geopolitical risks, international commodity price movements, and the global pandemic progress	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	652
in the foreign exchange market, the us dollar index trended up as investors expecting a faster rate hike cycle of the fed turned to us dollar assets	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	316
in addition, the non-performing loan ratios of these two loan brackets stayed low, indicating good credit quality	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	489
for instance, private investment is forecast to expand faster in the coming three quarters from the second quarter onwards than last year, and the governments forward-looking infrastructure development program is also expected to propel growth in public and private investment this year	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	89
this has led to a downward trend in the annual growth rate of the cpi, which registered 2.35 in november	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	977
compared to the projections made in march 2024, the bank upgraded the forecast of taiwans 2024 gdp growth rate by 0.55 percentage points, reflecting both a higher-than-expected gdp growth rate in 2024 q1 but also the banks upward revision of the contribution from net external demand and private investment to the 2024 gdp growth rate	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	199
in view of these risk concerns and a higher base effect this year 2021, it was expected that major economies would register slower growth in 2022 compared to 2021	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	277
despite these supportive forces, capital equipment imports dropped sharply in recent months as investment in semiconductor machinery and equipment was compared against a higher base	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	878
these developments indicated solid domestic economic growth	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	789
one board director noted that the rate hike proposition was partly based on current economic strength, solid labor market recovery, and pressures from inflation	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	408
although the selective credit controls had achieved some results, they would still need to be accompanied by other types of policy efforts if the housing price problem is to be successfully tackled	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	865
in addition, the relatively mild inflation in taiwan was mainly supported by utility oil, electricity, natural gas, etc	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	148
compared to other economies, taiwans inflation was mild and expected to drop below but close to 2	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	894
in respect of domestic economic conditions, several board directors discussed the issue of domestic investment growth momentum	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	37
nevertheless, the forward-looking infrastructure development program rolled out by the government may shore up private investment, while mild wage increases are likely to boost private consumption, which will combine to bolster domestic demand as a major driving force for economic growth	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	776
the estimates show that the cpi annual growth rates would remain above 2 in the first three quarters of the year, before slowing to below 2 in the fourth quarter	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	380
combined with a lower base effect, the annual export growth rate was 12.5 for the first five months of the year, with positive growth registered in exports to all major destination economies	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	851
in this view, the bank needs to closely monitor the developments of these events and the stances of major central banks so as to adopt appropriate policy responses as needed	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	697
in addition, geopolitical risks and climate change also add to uncertainties facing global inflation trends	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	814
in addition, the banks gradual approach to monetary tightening since march 2022 has also helped reinforce the effectiveness of the selective credit control measures	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	904
another board director stated that m2 continues to serve as an important reference for monetary policy deliberation	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	252
in the first four months of the year, labor market conditions were stable, and the unemployment rate dropped	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	929
to promote financial stability, reinforce banks credit risk management associated with real estate lending, and curb inordinate flows of credit resources towards the property market, the bank amended the _regulations governing the extension of mortgage loans by financial institutions hereinafter the regulations or mortgage loan regulations three times from december 2020	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	611
the bank of japan boj embarked on policy normalization with a rate hike this week, ending the negative interest rate policy and abolishing yield curve control while maintaining a loose monetary policy stance	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	500
these have all exerted downward pressures on interest rates	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	163
in this regard, this board director suggested the bank consider adjusting the acceptable range for the annual cpi growth rate to a band higher than 0-2 one board director noted that inflation has different effects on individuals and households across different income classes because inflation is the most regressive tax of all	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	280
in addition, keeping inflation in check would likely boost slow-growing real wages	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	942
related discussions are summarized as follows	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,022	596
key drivers contributing to the rise included rising food prices such as food away from home and fruit, higher housing rent, and prices rises for personal effects and entertainment services, with a combined contribution of 1.51 percentage points, or 67, to the rise in the cpi annual growth rate	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	604
in addition, some banks might be caught ill-prepared upon an rrr hike, potentially putting the bank in a position to provide liquidity as seen fit	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	217
meanwhile, some central banks continued with monetary tightening to combat still-high inflation, while some others maintained an accommodative stance	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	395
rising construction costs and the national urban land price index drove new housing prices higher	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	997
the present uptick in inflation is judged to be transitory and inflation is expected to be mild this year	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	475
furthermore, the bank had previously introduced the control measure of allowing no grace periods for a second housing loan in eight specific areas. should the real estate market remain heated, more targeted prudential measures could be deployed to rein it in	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	203
meanwhile, real estate loans continued to take up a rising share in total loans	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	850
however, considering that the currently low rates also left little room for a rate cut, it would be the appropriate decision to keep policy rates unchanged	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	963
this years uptrend in the annual cpi growth rate was due to supply side factors and a lower base effect, which would likely decline next year, indicating little urgency to apply rate hikes against inflation	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	982
international institutions forecasted that the global economy would likely sustain a steady recovery next year 2022	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	445
the domestic economy is on track to solid growth this year, likely expanding by 4.53 according to the banks forecast	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	507
all board directors expressed support for the policy rate reduction and the introduction of the special sme accommodation facility	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	645
in terms of grain prices, this year had so far witnessed a downtrend as weather conditions in argentine and us crop areas improved and the black sea grain export deal was extended	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	196
meanwhile, domestic demand was tepid as retail sales continued to contract in recent months, and private investment was somewhat reserved as reflected in declining capital equipment imports	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	708
one board director noted that the services sector was battered by the pandemic and was having a hard time regaining its footing	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	785
around 70 of this increase came from price rises in food such as food away from home and entertainment services as well as higher rent, with a combined contribution of 1.72 percentage points	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	423
even though monetary policy space could be smaller after this rate cut, taiwan will not pursue negative interest rates	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	683
therefore, the director supported the rate hold proposition	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	415
given the high uncertainties, the director supported a 0.125 percentage point rate increase	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	895
it is estimated that the 0.25 percentage point hike in the rrrs would lead to a combined increase of approximately nt120 billion in banks required reserves	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	693
for next year, inflation would likely rise further, boosted by a global economic recovery, an oil price rebound, and mild growth in domestic demand	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	993
in the financial markets, softening us inflation and signs of the economy weakening boosted market expectations of an earlier rate cut by the fed next year, thus sending the 10-year us treasury yields sharply down and causing a broad rally across major stock markets around the world	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	781
as inflationary pr essures linger in major economies, high interest rates may sustain for some time	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	400
demand for currency increased prior to the lunar new year holidays, which fell in february this year	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	132
another board director pointed out that, despite a large basket of cpi components, the public tend to response more strongly to the price rises in staple goods as they purchase these items more frequently	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	55
considering that the average mortgage burden ratio monthly housing loan repayment as a percentage of monthly disposable income of taiwanese households exceeds 30, the bank urges mortgage borrowers to caution an immediate increase in repayment after the grace period and a risk of possible interest rate changes	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	981
while short-term market interest rates fluctuated slightly, taiwans government bond yields tracked the uptrend of us treasury yields and edged up	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	847
considering that real estate-related lending still takes up a large proportion in bank credit, the director agreed with the proposition to adjust selective credit controls and to hike the rrrs in order to promote financial stability	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	193
the bank revised down this years economic growth rate projection to 3.75	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	696
another board director stated that the share of real estate loans extended by banks continued increasing despite the targeted prudential measures introduced in december, thus warranting the proposed adjustment	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	431
the board directors decided unanimously to keep the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations unchanged at 2, 2.375, and 4.25, respectively, to adjust the selective credit control measures, and to raise the reserve requirement ratios on nt dollar deposits by 0.25 percentage points	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	620
in all, these factors would mean there is little room for a rate hike	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	660
more recently, despite a pickup in investment growth last year, the pandemic-led decline in consumption also caused saving to increase faster	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	388
the growth rate stood at 6.75 at the end of october and averaged 7.55 for the first ten months of the year	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	177
in regard to wage growth in the year to date, nominal growth of total earnings of manufacturing workers slowed year on year owing to export contraction, whereas that of services workers increased as in-person consumption rebounded after the pandemic receded	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/central_bank_of_china_taiwan

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Central Bank of China (Taiwan).

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The central_bank_of_china_taiwan dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}