Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_korea

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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the member mentioned that inflation expectations of the general public had been growing recently along with the continued uptrend in prices, and went on to state that in order to prevent this from imposing an additional burden on the future path of the domestic economy and also on monetary policy options, preemptive measures needed to be taken for stable management of inflation expectations.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
157
after briefings by staff on 'current economic developments in korea', of the monetary policy committee (mpc) members covered the following areas: concerning the global economy, members’ assessment was that the moderate economic recovery in the us had been sustained and the economic sluggishness in the euro area showed signs of easing, while economic growth in some emerging market countries continued to deteriorate affected mainly by export sluggishness and capital outflows.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
269
the member evaluated that korean economic growth had slowed since the second quarter to show a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase and annualized growth at the mid-2 percent level, and explained that the growth was dependent upon semiconductor exports and fiscal expenditure and thus seemed somewhat unstable, while employment in the private sector had been highly lackluster.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
336
this member continued by noting that if the bank intermediation support facility, a non interest-rate policy tool, were utilized, it could minimize the growth of household debt and have an economic stimulus effect by channeling credit into corporate lending only, with household lending excluded.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
586
the member nevertheless expressed support for a 50 basis point hike due to the strong need to respond to persistent high inflation and pursue financial and fx market stability.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
908
the member also stated that financial stability risks related to real estate pf loans still existed.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
14
the member then expressed the view that vigilance was needed in order to avoid falling into a liquidity trap in the medium and long term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
582
volatility in global financial markets has increased sharply.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
293
the member added that households’ mortgage interest rates were already running above the pre-pandemic level in reflection of the government’s lending regulation measures, and policy measures to offset the negative side effects of low interest rates, such as debt service ratio (dsr) rules differentiated by borrower, had also taken effect.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
34
the member estimated that, although financial conditions had become less accommodative, due to a steep rise in market interest rates entering this year, the real base rate had fallen below the average for last year and was running considerably below the neutral interest rate.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
706
the member then assessed this as strongly attributable to employment growth in the health & welfare sector, led by the government’s job creation policy, and in the construction sector, associated with an increase in the availability of apartments.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
326
as for other considerations with regard to inflation in future base rate decisions, the member mentioned the time lag with which rate hikes are transmitted, the speed of disinflation, and the economic situation for next year.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
886
in this regard, it was deemed appropriate to keep the base rate at its current level at this meeting.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
682
the member added that growth in leasehold deposit loans, which are guaranteed loans, seemed to have been boosted by the increased guarantees provided by guarantee institutions seeking housing stability for the general public, and in this regard, curbing household debt would require policy instruments aiming at adjusting the degree of growth in leasehold deposit loans.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
931
members also noted that, although the household lending growth was slowing somewhat, it was still high compared to past years, and thus a close watch should be kept on the accumulation of financial imbalances.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
181
the member went on to forecast that although the korean economy was expected to continue to show a trend of low growth, the 2% inflation target was likely to be achieved in the medium term according to the current economic outlook.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
80
however, mr. ha, seong keun expressed clear opposition to the idea of holding the base rate at its current level, and argued for a 0.25 percentage point cut.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
497
as to the domestic economy, many members noted that growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 had not been strong, due mainly to contractions in consumption and construction investment.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
63
some economic indicators in the us such as employment to have shown improvements, but economic activities in the euro area to have remained sluggish.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
79
another member presented the view that it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, as inflation was not seen to have deviated greatly from the original forecast path and was expected to converge to near the inflation target over the medium-term horizon, despite growing uncertainties surrounding real economic conditions and exogenous variables.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
406
- consumer price inflation registered 0.8% in june, the same as in may, in line mainly with declines in agricultural product prices.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
786
with respect to the domestic economy, the member judged that there were growing concerns about a weakening of growth momentum, as exports had been sluggish, affected largely by a slowdown in the growth of the global economy and trade and also in the global semiconductor industry.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
311
with regard to construction investment, the member’s assessment was that its growth rate had peaked but that it would increase slowly until next year.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
986
the board sees the domestic economy as likely to continue its trend of recovery going forward, and forecasts a rate of gdp growth for this year higher than the april projection (2.6%).
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
821
looking at the recent changes in domestic and external conditions, the member assessed downside risks to the growth and price paths as having increased somewhat from the april forecast.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
33
the member noted that, with major global institutions and investment banks adjusting their world economic growth outlooks for this year sharply downward, the real economy and financial markets in korea would be inevitably hit hard by the covid-19 pandemic.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
296
the member forecast that, however, a somewhat different picture could be in sight from the previous quarter in that exports would decline at a much faster pace, particularly to the us and the euro area where preventive measures had been strengthened, while the decline in private consumption would ease gradually, boosted by various policy support measures.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
62
however, some members expressed concerns about the additional increase in banks' household lending, while another mentioned the possibility of growing default risks, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) with poor credit ratings, influenced by the worsening of fund-raising conditions for construction companies, due to the delayed real estate market recovery and tighter attitudes toward sme lending following the supervisory authorities' strengthening of soundness supervision.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
211
long-term market interest rates have increased, in reflection of the changes in interest rates in major countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
339
meanwhile, the member stated that manufactoring and service production-related indicators in the second quarter seemed to have been somewhat insufficient to be confident that the trend of economic recovery in the previous quarter was continuing.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
542
members expressed concerns that, on top of the slowdown of domestic demand, the sluggishness of exports that had become apparent since the second quarter might limit domestic economic growth.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
56
the member presented the opinion that, although the bank of korea research department had revised the economic outlook downward in reflection of those points, there could be additional downside risks due to high uncertainties.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
396
first, looking at the recent macroeconomic trends, there seemed no significant changes in the upside and downside risks to growth and inflation since the april mpb meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
768
a majority of members forecast that the inflation rate would remain at a stable level below the midpoint of its target for the time being, with the easing of inflationary pressures owing primarily to the economic slowdown and to international oil price stability.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
628
the improvements in the euro area, although weak, have continued, and the chinese economy has maintained its moderate growth.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
764
the member added that the abrupt exchange rate fluctuations in the us dollar, the yen and the euro, stemming from policy divergences among major advanced country central banks, signified that the promises made at the seoul g20 summit in 2010 were no longer being followed, and expressed the view that, against this backdrop, korea should not only seek actively to reduce exchange rate volatility, but also devote efforts to securing various possible policy tools.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
545
the member explained that this was because the export slump had gradually been easing, and, on the domestic demand side, the effects of the accommodative monetary and fiscal policy measures taken so far were expected to continually rein in the negative impacts of covid-19 and drive a recovery in demand from households and corporations.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
340
one other member set out the view that it would be desirable to carefully examine and analyze both the background and future trend of major variables critical to the growth and stability of the korean economy, while holding the base rate at the current level for the intermeeting period.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
742
the member mentioned that economic shocks from covid-19 had lasted for the third consecutive year, due to the spread of the omicron variant.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
30
are posted on the bank of korea website.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,016
657
the member commented that household lending was showing stability this year, acting a backdrop to seamless corporate funding despite worsened corporate bond issuance conditions following the recent rises in bond yields.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
241
as to prices, the 1st vice minister disclosed that the government saw prices as the most essential element for stability in the lives of ordinary people, and was consequently concentrating its efforts to contain concerns over price instability, by monitoring prices and improving its response systems, while focusing on early stabilization of the prices of agricultural, livestock and fisheries products including vegetables.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
324
first, the sensitivity of the financial sector and risks from the financial stability perspective had increased following the svb crisis.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
725
employment conditions have been sluggish, with the amount of increase in the number of persons employed having lessened substantially in december.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
449
in this regard, the member considered it appropriate to monitor future macroeconomic developments while holding the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
407
the member thus saw that the short-term shock to the domestic economy could be much greater than past incidents of infectious diseases.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
53
however, the member stressed the need to operate monetary policy cautiously, while examining the effects of the rate hikes so far, major economic indicators and future developments in terms of financial unrest, as financial stability risks also appeared to have increased both domestically and internationally.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
200
considering the inflation outlook, the member expected that the real base rate would exceed the neutral rate of interest after the second quarter, constraining private consumption even further.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
97
the member presented the view that, since gdp for this year would be only 3% higher than its pre-covid-19 level recorded in 2019 and private consumption was likely to return to its pre-covid-19 level in the second half of next year at the earliest, it would be necessary to wait a little longer to see whether gdp growth led primarily by exports and the manufacturing sector would lead to expansions in household income, wages, employment and consumption.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
150
the member saw that, with respect to global trade, goods trade was sustaining high growth, while recovery in service trade had been delayed.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,021
194
he went on to express the view that these upward trends should be monitored closely going forward.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
747
the member evaluated the growth divide as having become more serious and employment conditions as having worsened further of late, as recovery in the real economy was led by some export industries, such as it, and shocks from the covid-19 pandemic had been concentrated in the low-value-added services industries.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
310
on the employment front, as the number of persons employed has increased, the employment-to-population ratio rose and the unemployment rate fell in july compared to those in july of last year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
7
the member forecast that domestic economic growth would be dampened significantly by covid-19, with production and retail sales declining and facilities investment delayed.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
805
the member meanwhile forecast consumer price inflation to remain high at around 6%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
390
prior to the members’ discussion regarding the base rate, the chairman gave the floor to the 1st vice minister of strategy and finance, the government representative.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
245
the member assessed that the domestic economy had maintained growth consistent with the potential growth rate in the first half of this year, but the gap between exports and domestic demand had been widening and uncertainty surrounding the future growth path had increased somewhat.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
18
the member thus noted that it was desirable to first utilize macroprudential policy to address these issues selectively.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
341
with these taken into account, the member mentioned that the growth rate was highly likely to be lower than the may forecast.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
286
the board sees continued rate hikes as warranted, as inflation is expected to run above the target level for a considerable time.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
461
after the discussions detailed above, all members agreed on maintaining the bank of korea base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, and passed a resolution to this effect[3)].
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
656
one member pointed out that, if the growth momentum in major advanced economies weakened, a very critical touchstone in determining future economic trend would be whether the emerging market countries could successfully lead the global economy instead.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
363
the member expected that consumption would continue to slow, weighed down by an economic slowdown, declining real purchasing power, and the growing burden of loan principal and interest repayment, in addition to the decrease in consumption capacity.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
940
the member also noted that it would be necessary to prepare against the possibility of shocks to vulnerable groups developing into systemic risks in order to fulfill the central bank’s mandate of ensuring financial stability, and that it would also be necessary to pay attention to overseas factors.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,022
649
he then presented the view that the normalization of interest rates should be considered at an appropriate time, when the economic recovery had become evident.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
15
the extent of growth in bank household lending has continued to lessen, but the substantial increase in household lending by non-banks has been sustained.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
342
has continued, as exports have sustained their high rate of increase and consumption has recovered moderately although investment has temporarily slowed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
798
to recover despite the spread of covid-19 variants, supported by accelerated vaccinations and the relaxation of restrictions on economic activity in major countries.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
873
regarding the domestic economy, the member noted that growth was exhibiting a gradual recovery trend, boosted by favorable semiconductor and automobile exports, while domestic demand, such as private consumption and investment, had continued to show a weak recovery.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
123
notably, he expressed the view that it would also be necessary to monitor and develop measures in response to the increases in capital flows and sharp fluctuations in exchange rates that might be caused by the different timing of the unwinding of quantitative easing by major countries such as the us and japan.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
906
core inflation (excluding changes in food and energy prices from the cpi) has also remained at the lower-0% range, and the inflation expectations of the general public have stayed at the mid-1% level.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
722
one member presented the view in addition that attention should be paid to the facts that the share in overall bank lending of loans to smes had been decreasing since the financial crisis and, furthermore, that the share of credit-based loans in total bank lending to smes had also continued to decline.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
110
the member also noted that the board should decide when to make an additional adjustment to monetary accommodation, while reviewing the transmission effects of the base rate hikes, the developments and impacts of the pandemic, and growth and inflation conditions, while carefully monitoring improvements in financial imbalances at the same time.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
31
some members expressed the view that the economy had already passed beyond the recovery phase and had entered an expansionary phase.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
664
in this process it will thoroughly assess the severity of the resurgence of covid in financial stability, and the effects of the policy measures taken in response to the pandemic.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
720
incorporating the outcome of their earlier discussions, a statement was compiled reflecting the views of the majority.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,017
521
as for korea, however, the member’s evaluation was that there were only slight inflationary pressures at the moment.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
175
meanwhile, one member expressed the opinion that it would be desirable to adjust the base rate downward by 25 basis points from the current 1.5 percent to 1.25 percent this month.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
392
the member pointed out that, in the credit and securities markets, credit spreads had narrowed considerably, and anxiety in the pf-abcp market had eased somewhat.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
817
another member presented the view that it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level of 0.50% for the intermeeting period.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
953
the member expected consumer prices for this year and next to be generally consistent with the october forecasts.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
328
in line with this, he argued that the possibility of a hard landing of the chinese economy should be closely monitored.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,014
126
in addition, the member pointed out that there had been a slight slowing of price inflation with respect to items sensitive to economic conditions and of core inflation with items whose prices are administered excluded, and this implied a slight weakening of demand-side inflationary pressures and was also consistent with the recent real economic path.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
4
housing prices and leasehold deposits in the rest of the country rose at rates similar to those in december.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
889
the member pointed out that, although this suggested that monetary policy transmission channels are working smoothly in the financial markets, continued attention should be paid to the possibility of the accumulation of financial imbalances that could be brought about by the continuation of accommodative financial conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
989
the member also noted that, coupled with rising inflation expectations, the increase in perceived inflation among individuals ― driven by the recent rise in consumer prices, especially for daily necessities, such as agricultural and energy products ― could also contribute to a gradual slowdown in overall inflation.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
726
the member took the view that, since policy uncertainties concerning exchange rate instability could distort economic agents’ decision-making regarding consumption and investment and cause herd behavior, various efforts should be made to stabilize the financial and fx markets.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
414
the member evaluated that the reflation trend in the world economy was gradually spreading, as the international financial market and emerging market economies remained stable.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
965
the member pointed out that, in this situation, the covid-19 outbreak was placing an additional burden on the domestic economy.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
661
mortgage lending has continued to increase on a relatively large scale, even though house transactions have been inactive.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
9
the member stated that numerous emergency measures had expired so far, but supporting the credit market through an spv that purchases corporate bonds and commercial paper, and the expansion of the bank intermediated lending support facility, were still ongoing.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
197
the future path of inflation is likely to be influenced by international oil prices and exchange rate movements, agricultural product price trends, and whether public utility fees are adjusted.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
435
- the board judges that the solid trend of domestic economic growth has continued, as exports have sustained their buoyancy and consumption has improved moderately, although investment has slowed somewhat.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
553
the member also noted that, to prevent excessive anxiety stemming from the recent heightened volatility in global financial markets, the bank should assure economic agents that korea’s capacity to respond to external shocks was relatively sound, thanks to its large current account surplus, abundant holdings of official foreign reserves, and banks’ safe external debt structures.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
887
the member expected the gdp growth rate for this year to be generally consistent with the august projection since negative external risks, such as global supply disruptions, global inflation, and a slowdown in chinese economic growth, were predicted to be offset by the possibility of an expansion in domestic demand following a transition in the disease control system in the fourth quarter.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
160
the member added that, considering various external soundness indicators, korea was unlikely to be affected greatly by a us policy rate hike, but it would be necessary to work in closer cooperation with the government going forward while strengthening the monitoring of domestic and overseas financial market trends.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
637
the member, however, noted that, the recent slowbalization was heightening concern that economic prosperity backed by expanded international trade and market opening could be reversed.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
950
another member presented the view that it would be appropriate to maintain the base rate at the current level of 3.50% for the intermeeting period.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
799
the member commented that, for the moment, no major central banks were attempting to change the monetary policy stance to reflect the overconcentration of funds into asset markets.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
88
looking at the economic conditions at home and abroad since the previous monetary policy decision meeting, the member evaluated that the economic shocks from covid-19 appeared to have somewhat passed their peak, but uncertainties surrounding the recovery path seemed to remain high.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
487