Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

bank_of_canada

sentences stringlengths 35 381	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
global growth prospects have weakened since the bank released its april mpr.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	705
global growth faltered in early 2015, principally in the united states and china.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	921
together with a moderation in the growth of household spending, this is expected to gradually return canada’s economy to a more balanced growth path.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	158
net exports are expected to contribute little to growth, reflecting moderate foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the canadian dollar.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	654
recent data show that labour market slack is being absorbed more quickly than anticipated.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	822
the more contagious variants of the virus are straining healthcare systems and affecting hard-to-distance activities, and have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	43
however, getting inflation the rest of the way back to 2% could prove to be more difficult because inflation expectations are coming down slowly, service price inflation and wage growth remain elevated, and corporate pricing behaviour has yet to normalize.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	189
the bank of canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	869
despite recent improvements to the outlook for the global and canadian economies, risks remain elevated.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	987
in the second half of 2024, household spending will likely pick up and exports and business investment should get a boost from recovering foreign demand.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	467
the bank expects canada’s economy to grow by 3½% in 2022, 1¾% in 2023, and 2½% in 2024.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	257
looking forward, consumption and residential investment are expected to contribute less to growth, given higher interest rates and new mortgage guidelines, while business investment and exports are expected to contribute more.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	658
the global economy is expected to expand modestly in 2013, although its near-term dynamic has changed and the composition of growth is now slightly less favourable for canada.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	754
meanwhile, household imbalances continue to evolve constructively and recent data are broadly consistent with a soft landing in canada’s housing market.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	632
the bank expects canada’s economy to gradually strengthen in the second half of this year, with real gdp growth averaging 2.1 per cent in 2015 and 2.4 per cent in 2016.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	426
core inflation is expected to stay well below 2 per cent this year due to the effects of economic slack and heightened retail competition, and these effects will persist until early 2016.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	288
still, household imbalances remain elevated and would pose a significant risk should economic conditions deteriorate.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	70
the bank’s base-case scenario nonetheless assumes that the euro-area crisis will be contained, although this assumption is clearly subject to downside risks.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	167
growth in the second quarter appears to be stronger than predicted due to some temporary factors, including the reversal of weather-related slowdowns in the first quarter and a surge in oil production.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	102
however, the cumulative effects of the persistent strength in the canadian dollar and canada’s poor relative productivity performance are restraining this recovery in net exports and contributing to a widening of canada’s current account deficit to a 20-year high.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	250
the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated and uncertainty has increased since the bank released its october mpr.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	832
the labour market remains soft—the unemployment rate was at 6.5% in september.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	916
indeed, private demand could turn out to be stronger than anticipated.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	763
the next challenge for markets will be managing increased demand for near-term financing by federal and provincial governments, and businesses and households.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	84
in sum, the bank continues to see a gradual strengthening in the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in canada.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	295
lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring cpi inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	125
all things considered, governing council judges it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	845
the timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	191
for canada, the bank now forecasts real gdp will grow by 1.6 percent this year and 2 percent in 2021, following 1.6 percent growth in 2019.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	617
the bank of canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 1/4 per cent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	64
while global headwinds are restraining canadian economic activity, domestic factors are expected to support moderate growth in canada.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	709
given all of these factors, governing council agrees that the policy interest rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	247
as global headwinds recede, confidence in the sustainability of domestic and global demand should improve and business investment should pick up.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	434
in canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1¾% in the second half.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	362
excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	215
the bank expects the economy to grow at a pace roughly in line with its production potential in the near term, before picking up through 2013.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	879
however, there is considerable uncertainty about the speed with which this sequence will evolve and how it will be affected by the drop in oil prices.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	985
core measures of inflation have also risen, but by less than the cpi.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	652
given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the governing council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	316
in japan, fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is contributing to a rapid recovery in economic growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	489
the bank expects growth to pick up, starting in the second quarter of this year.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	89
commodity prices received by canadian producers remain elevated by historical standards and, overall, they are little changed since the january mpr.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	977
in china and other emerging-market economies growth is expected to be solid, although there are growing concerns about financial vulnerabilities.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	199
the bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	277
weighing these considerations, the bank judges that the substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place remains appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	878
global financial conditions remain accommodative.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	789
more than half of the components that make up the cpi are now rising by more than 5%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	408
growth in other regions is evolving largely as projected in the bank’s october monetary policy report (mpr).	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	865
the bank expects exports to continue to grow solidly through 2024.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	148
moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last september, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	894
the euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	37
canada’s economy had strong momentum through to late 2020, but the resurgence of cases and the reintroduction of lockdown measures are a serious setback.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	776
the bank’s governing council acknowledges the strength of recent data, some of which is temporary, and is mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	380
in contrast, growth in emerging-market economies, particularly china, remains very strong.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	851
after picking up to very strong rates in the second half of 2012, growth in china has eased.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	697
inflation in canada is close to 2 per cent as temporary factors that have been weighing on inflation have largely dissipated, as expected.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	814
reflecting all of these factors, the bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	904
the bank rate is correspondingly 1 ¾ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ¼ per cent.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	252
exports have been boosted by the opening of the trans mountain expansion pipeline.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	929
this reflects stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	611
the oil price shock increases both downside risks to the inflation profile and financial stability risks.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	500
global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	163
consumption is expected to grow moderately and residential investment to decline further from historically high levels.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	280
ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts has undermined business sentiment and activity, contributing to a synchronous slowdown across many countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	942
above-potential growth is becoming more widespread in the euro area.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	596
however, in addition to elevated mortgage interest costs, inflation in rent and other housing costs remains high.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	604
however, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	217
housing market activity remains subdued.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	395
exports have been weaker than expected although, apart from cross-border shifts in automotive production, there have been positive signs in most other categories.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	997
domestic demand is expected to remain the principal driver of growth over the projection horizon.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	475
inflation has been easing in most economies, as supply bottlenecks resolve and weaker demand relieves price pressures.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	203
the economy is expected to return to full capacity around the end of 2016, a little later than was expected in october.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	850
however, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economy’s potential output is still growing faster than gdp, which means excess supply has increased.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	963
the bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the cpi, and are now between 1.4 and 1.9 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	982
effective the week of april 26, weekly net purchases of government of canada bonds will be adjusted to a target of $3 billion.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	445
this reflects the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices, particularly for energy, which have been pushed up by russia’s attack on ukraine.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	507
still, global growth is expected to slow to around 3 percent this year before edging up over the next two years.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	645
ongoing trade conflicts and uncertainty are restraining business investment, trade, and global growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	196
the u.s. economic expansion is proceeding at a moderate pace, with the continued strengthening in private demand being partly offset by the impact of fiscal consolidation.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	708
as a result, in the central scenario, real gdp declines by 7.8 percent in 2020 and resumes with growth of 5.1 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	785
overall, the bank judges that the risks to the inflation outlook in canada are roughly balanced over the projection period.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	423
the global economy is still expected to pick up in 2014 and 2015.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	683
cpi and the bank’s core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to capacity.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	415
europe’s economy is growing modestly, but inflation remains too low and the nascent recovery could be undermined by risks emanating from the russia-ukraine situation.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	895
with continued slack in the canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	693
in response, many central banks have signalled a slower pace of monetary policy normalization.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	993
decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by governing council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	781
cpi inflation remains well above the target range and core measures of inflation have edged up since october.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	400
it is expected to contribute only modestly thereafter, in line with plans to consolidate spending by federal and provincial governments.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	132
also, the slowdown in international demand is beginning to weigh on exports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	55
as long as there is significant slack in the canadian economy, the inflation outlook remains muted, and imbalances in the household sector continue to evolve constructively, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will remain appropriate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	981
in this context, global financial conditions have eased substantially.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	847
the bank expects cpi inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2½% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	193
growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	696
also, surveys indicate more consumers and businesses are expecting inflation to be higher for longer, raising the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched in price- and wage-setting.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	431
monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	620
financial conditions for households and businesses remain very stimulative.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	660
this implies that the current modest output gap will narrow over the projection horizon.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	388
household spending will likely remain solid in the months ahead, supported by rising employment and wages, but its pace is expected to slow over the projection horizon.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	177
however, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/bank_of_canada

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Bank of Canada.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The bank_of_canada dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}