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1lidh6b | $KO, $PEP and the new Texas health labels | Today I saw that Texas are making companies like $KO and $PEP put health warnings on their beverage and sweets, as well as Mars' M&Ms (which is rather irrelevant, since Mars is private).
Basically, they've been given until 2027 to remove 40 substances - including bleached flour and artificial dyes.
What hit me was that High Fructose Corn Syrup did not make the warnings list. This wasn't because it was healthy - HCFS was formerly banned by the EU and UK but came off the list in 2017 (probs because of healthy lobbying by Big Sugar (21.3m euros at the last count, not because the EU 'finally saw the light).
But what also hit me is the warnings in Texas WILL be followed by the same in 49 other states (in my view), because states don't want to be seen as encouraging people to eat like s\*\*t, and they are worried about RFKJ and his mad campaign to make everyone better again.
So then what about the shares in $KO and $PEP? With this stuff AS WELL as worries in the Middle East, it is a definitely worrying trend for me. Or am I simply worrying for worry's sake, bearing in mind the stock's still up 10% YTD and people will always go to their crappy products for comfort food in times like this. | 1,750,675,833 | 2025-06-23 10:50:33 | Nearby_Valuable_5467 | 10 | 7 | 0.78 | null | /r/stocks/comments/1lidh6b/ko_pep_and_the_new_texas_health_labels/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1lidh6b/ko_pep_and_the_new_texas_health_labels/ | stocks | 3m |
1jkjhwe | Basic Stock Analysis Guide for Beginners | **Yo! Made this for some buddies and thought i'd share. if you have more suggestions feel free to comment them!**
**This document is meant for someone who wants to be able to pick their own stocks but gets intimidated by the financial statements. Of course, there is always the possibility to analyze a company deeper, but this should be used to help the user skim through a company’s financials to see if the stock is worth looking into further.**
I usually start by going through the stocks that are within 15% of their 52wk high. Help’s you find companies that already have momentum going for them, and if it is a microcap, it could just be the beginning. Once I pick the stock, I take a peek at the state of their chart, if it isn’t abysmal, I would then move on to a brief run through of their financials.
**Basic Analysis & Key financial terms and ratios to understand:**
**1st: Income Statement**
When I’m evaluating a stock, the first thing I look at is **revenue growth**. This is an easy way to see if the company is actually expanding. If revenue growth is strong, like over 20% quarter-over-quarter, it’s a sign the company could be gaining momentum. Even better if the growth % is growing too, for example, 15% -> 25% -> 40%, this means the company is scaling and doing so efficiently.
After revenue, I look at the **gross margin**, which tells me how efficiently the company produces its goods or services. Gross margin is calculated as:
(Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) / Revenue) x 100
It essentially shows how much money is left from each dollar of revenue after covering the direct costs of production. Gross margin is useful when comparing to competitors and also just understanding if their manufacturing costs etc, are getting cheaper over time. If it is increasing then that is a green flag.
From there, I check **operating expenses**, which include costs like R&D, marketing, salaries, and administrative expenses. These costs are not tied directly to production but are basically the cost of running the business. I want to see if operating expenses are increasing at a *slower* rate than revenue, as this would mean the company is scaling efficiently. On the flip side, if expenses are rising faster than revenue, it could hint at inefficiencies or poor cost management.
Next, I take a quick look at the **interest expense.** This is the amount the company is paying to service its debt. While I’ll do a deeper dive into debt when I analyze the balance sheet, it’s helpful to glance at this number here to see if debt costs are eating into profitability. It is also useful to judge in comparison to the cash number, you can take the company’s cash and divide it by the periods interest expense to see how many periods (quarters or years, depending on the financials) the company could cover its interest payments with the cash it currently has.
Finally, I look at **EBITDA**, which stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. This metric strips out certain non-operational or non-cash expenses (shit that’s listed as an expense on the financials but don’t actually reduce the company’s cash position) to give a clearer picture of the company’s operating performance. Here’s why it’s important:
Interest: Excluded because financing costs vary depending on how the company is funded.
Taxes: Excluded because tax rates can differ significantly between regions or periods.
Depreciation and Amortization: These are non-cash expenses (accounting for the wear and tear
of assets), so they don’t affect actual cash flow.
Basically, by focusing on EBITDA, you can see how profitable the company’s core operations are, without being distracted by financing or accounting decisions. And once again here I’d be looking if it is growing and how quickly.
**2nd: Balance Sheet**
After the income statement, I move on to the balance sheet. This is where I check how tight the company is running and whether they have enough financial stability to support their operations.
The first thing I look at is their **cash** position. I want to know how much cash they have on hand.
Then, I look at **liquidity**, which tells me if the company can handle its short-term obligations. To figure this out, I check the current ratio. This is calculated by dividing current assets (things like cash, receivables, and inventory) by current liabilities (like short-term debt and accounts payable). The balance sheet will have a line for both Current Assets and Current Liabilities, I basically just eye ball them and check if they are at least even. If the ratio is above 1, it means they have enough assets to cover their liabilities. Ideally, I like to see something closer to 1.5 or higher for a bit of a cushion. If the ratio is too low, it could mean they might struggle to meet their debt obligations.
Next, I look at their **debt** levels. It’s not just about how much debt they have but whether it’s increasing or decreasing. A company taking on a lot of debt without growing revenue or profitability to match could be a red flag. I also keep an eye on their ability to manage the debt. This is an important thing to check because debt can be deceiving as it could look like high growth on the surface except that growth is fueled by borrowed money, which isn’t sustainable if the company can’t generate enough cash flow to pay it back. If revenue or profitability doesn’t keep pace with the growing debt, it can quickly become a problem, especially if interest payments start eating into their earnings. As mentioned, I either wanna see the debt decreasing, or at least growing slower then revenue.
Finally, I check **shares outstanding**. This shows me if the company has been issuing a lot of new shares. If the number of shares outstanding is growing rapidly, it can dilute existing shareholders, which isn’t great. It’s a sign they might be relying too much on raising money from investors instead of generating cash through their business. For me, stable or slowly growing shares are much better.
**3rd: Cash Flow Statement**
The cash flow statement is something I’ll dig into more if I’m doing a deeper analysis, but when I’m just skimming, there are two key things I’ll check: capital expenditures and free cash flow.
**Capital expenditures** (CapEx) are what the company is spending on big investments, like equipment, property, or technology. These are necessary for growth, but if they’re spending too much on CapEx without the cash flow to back it up, it could become an issue. It’s something I’ll glance at just to get a sense of how much they’re reinvesting into the business.
The other thing I’ll look at is **free cash flow** (FCF). This is basically the cash a company has left over after paying for operating expenses and capital expenditures.
Free cash flow is important because it shows how much actual cash the company is generating that can be used for things like paying down debt, returning money to shareholders, or funding growth. If free cash flow is growing consistently, that’s a great sign the business is healthy and has flexibility. On the flip side, if it’s negative or shrinking, it might mean they’re burning through cash faster than they’re making it.
**Burn Rate**
The burn rate is an important metric for companies that aren’t yet profitable, especially junior mining companies. It shows how much cash a company is spending each month to keep its operations running. To calculate it, you take the company’s total cash and divide it by their average monthly operating expenses.
Here’s how you can quickly estimate it:
Take the operating expenses from the last two quarters (you can find this on the income statement).
Add those together and divide by six to get an average monthly expense.
For example, if a junior mining company has $5 million in cash and its operating expenses for the last two quarters add up to $3 million, the average monthly expense would be:
3M / 6 = 500k
5M cash / 500k = 10 months
This means the company can operate for 10 months before running out of cash.
If the burn rate is low (e.g., under 6 months), it’s worth checking whether the company has plans to raise more capital soon.
**Past example**
TSSI, first started talking about it at $1.46. It is now $17+. Here is what I had for company highlights when I first posted about it:
*“Company Highlights*
*Revenue grew 142% from $6.6M in Q1 2023 to $15.9M in Q1 2024, driven by procurement services growth.*
*Turned a Q1 2023 operating loss of $665K into a $253K profit in Q1 2024.*
*Positioned to capitalize on rising demand for AI computing solutions, increasing production capacity.*
*Adjusted EBITDA rose by 209%, from a $436K loss to a $475K gain. Gross profit increased by 61%, highlighting improved financial health.”*
* So, first, clear strong growth in revenue and Ebitda.
* “ *Turned a Q1 2023 operating loss of $665K into a $253K profit in Q1 2024.”* I love investing in company’s that just became profitable, especially a scalable tech company like this one.
* TSSI provides data center services, so this was basically playing the Ai hype in the safest way. Instead of directly investing in high-risk Ai companies that are probably far from profitability and have a 1% of sticking around in the long term, why not invest in the infrastructure that will be powering the Ai revolution.
Basically saw a company that was growing a shit ton, was a part of a strong narrative, and just turned profitable. Sometimes it is just as easy as that.
Btw, I am aware could likely be much better or more in-depth but it is meant for beginners who just want to be able to somewhat understand what to look for when looking at fins. | 1,743,015,252 | 2025-03-26 18:54:12 | LadsoStocks | 66 | 3 | 0.93 | Advice | /r/stocks/comments/1jkjhwe/basic_stock_analysis_guide_for_beginners/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jkjhwe/basic_stock_analysis_guide_for_beginners/ | stocks | 3m |
1jiqe9p | These are the stocks on my watchlist (03/24) - Minor Market Bounce due to (some) held back tariffs | This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
News: [US Treasuries Fall on Signs That Trump Will Dilute April Tariffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/us-treasuries-fall-on-signs-that-trump-will-dilute-april-tariffs)
This has resulted in a market bounce and overall means that markets will likely NOT be as impacted by tariffs as they were expecting.
The tariff game Trump is playing reminds me of that scene from the office: "You have no idea the physical toll three vasectomies have on a person! Snip Snap! Snip Snap! Snip Snap!" -Michael Scott.
Anyway back to the watchlist.
[**TSLA (Tesla)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA&p=d)\- Seen a significant bounce in TSLA due to the news of the lessened (supposedly) future tariffs—interested in seeing if we can break above $260 at open; otherwise, not interested and likely still will be negatively biased. This might actually be reacting a little positively due to BYD's blowout earnings. BYD reported $107B annual revenue for the year and are close to TSLA's profit! Mainly concerned in the long run about margin compression due to pricing cuts, increased competition in the EV space, macro headwinds, and of course, Elon making fork sculptures in the White House but no one appreciating them.
[**MSTR (MicroStrategy)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MSTR&p=d)\- MicroStrategy buys 6,911 more of the underlying, now holds over 506k, currently at 2x premium. Nothing too interesting to note beyond the typical upwards move from whenever MSTR announces a buy of the underlying. We've bounced slightly off the lows, but worth noting that the underlying is also rose from news that Trump might use his gold holdings to buy more. I always keep in mind MSTR's heavy dependence on underlying performance, regulatory scrutiny, and volatility, of course. Related tickers to watch on this are RIOT and COIN/HOOD.
[**LUNR (Intuitive Machines)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LUNR&p=d)\- Reported strong Q4 and FY24 results. Q4 revenue of $54.7M (+80% YoY) and FY24 revenue of $228.0M (nearly 3x YoY).
Backlog reached $328.3M (+22% YoY), with **projected positive run-rate Adj. EBITDA by year-end**. Overall backlog seemed to be the second most important factor, signifies that there is future revenue and they are far more financially stable than anticipated and even profitable by year end! I have a very small position long. Going to bail if we break below $7 but overall I think there are many tailwinds that can help LUNR. **L**UNR's main risks are execution risk tied to lunar missions (beginning of this month saw the stock fall close to 50% in a single day), contract delays, reliance on government funding, and high R&D intensity with limited margin buffer/no defined return. Also watching RKLB on this.
[**AZEK (The AZEK Company)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AZEK&p=d)\- James Hardie to acquire AZEK in a cash/stock deal valued at $8.75B (including debt). AZEK holders to receive $26.45 cash + 1.034 JHX shares, totaling \~$53/share (as of premarket prices)**.** These hybrid stock/cash acquisitions can fluctuate in price because of how the acquirer pays with their own stock. Typical M&A risks apply such as integration risk, housing market softness, FX exposure (James Hardie also trades in Australia IIRC), regulatory risk, etc.
**Earnings:** [**OKLO**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OKLO&p=d) | 1,742,822,143 | 2025-03-24 13:15:43 | WinningWatchlist | 36 | 14 | 0.73 | null | /r/stocks/comments/1jiqe9p/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0324_minor/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jiqe9p/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0324_minor/ | stocks | 3m |
1jb3ph1 | These are the stocks on my watchlist (03/14) - Market Recovery Hopes | This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!
I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.
The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
We'll see if we can hold the recovery today.
News: [Gold Breaks Through 3 000 As Trump Turbocharges Record Rally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/gold-breaks-through-3-000-as-trump-turbocharges-record-rally)
[**GLD (SPDR Gold)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GLD&p=d)**,** [**VXX (VIX Futures ETN)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VXX&p=d)**,** [**NUGT (Gold Miners Bull 2X)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NUGT&p=d)
Gold prices have surged to a record high, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by trade tensions/uncertainty. This is somewhat similar to my VXX/VIX play from a few days ago, essentially a short volatility trade. Again, still short VXX because I think we've peaked (for now) in terms of volatility. VXX makes bigger moves in vol trades compared to gold so I prefer it for vol shorts. The rise in gold prices shows how it still remains the hedge over the Coin, which essentially trades in-line with the market because it's still speculative. Overall trade tensions die down, Trump announces tariffs are over, the typical tariff business.
**Related Tickers:** SLV/ All other gold mining stocks
[**RBRK (Rubrik Inc)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RBRK&p=d)
Reported a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and revenue that topped expectations. Company lost -$0.18 vs -$0.39 exp. Revenue rose 47% to $258.1M vs $233.1M expected. Overall a hell of a bounce (and earnings for the stock), not too interested in going long after the earnings announcement but if we spike up I'm interested in fading the move. Cloud data/data security earnings, this company typically moves on revenue outlook (especially because it's still in its early stages).
[**PTON (Peloton Interactive)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PTON&p=d)
Canaccord Genuity upgraded Peloton to a 'Buy' rating with a price target of $10, stating, "Peloton is the clear leader in the connected fitness industry, which it invested in early on and built a 6M loyal member base that has a high-margin recurring revenue stream... Peloton is at the turning point in its journey where there is meaningful upside potential from current levels." I think this catalyst is dumb and I usually don't think about price target calls (like with Reddit earlier this week) but this HAS moved the stock. Overall interested to see if we make an additional upmove after the open. The connected fitness industry is undergoing a transformation, with companies focusing on subscription-based models to drive recurring revenue. Overall the catalyst might end up falling flat completely, as some PT calls do.
[**DOCU (DocuSign)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DOCU&p=d)
Reported Q4 earnings of $0.86 vs $0.84. exp, revenue of $776.3M. Interested in seeing if we continue in the upmove today, otherwise not that interested. We're NEVER going to see COVID highs again (seriously, look at the 5 year chart of DOCU) and I don't like this as a long-term investment. Watching both $80 and $85 levels. | 1,741,958,329 | 2025-03-14 13:18:49 | WinningWatchlist | 3 | 5 | 0.56 | null | /r/stocks/comments/1jb3ph1/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0314_market/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jb3ph1/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0314_market/ | stocks | 3m |
1j8qi84 | These are the stocks on my watchlist (03/11) | This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
We had a hell of a selloff yesterday. I see today as an attempt to recover, not too interested in going short on the market today unless we break new lows. Trying out a new layout today.
News: [ Citi Downgrades US Stocks While Wall Street Set to Pause Selloff](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/citi-cuts-us-stocks-raises-china-on-pause-in-us-exceptionalism-m83svz54)
[**TSLA (Tesla)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA&p=d)**/**[**NVDA (NVIDIA)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA&p=d)**/**[**RDDT (Reddit)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RDDT&p=d)**/**[**SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SPY&p=d)
Saw these move mainly due to recession fears and the entire market panicking, MASSIVE move yesterday.
Yesterday, mainly traded TSLA on the overnight exchanges. It had the largest move and got down to around $212. Overall a lot of negative sentiment ranging from boycotts and Elon controversies. Not too interested in trading TSLA today again. I'm interested in NVDA if we break below 100 but again I think that we'll mainly see a small bounce today rather than breaking new lows. As for RDDT, we're 50% down from highs! Interesting swing candidate but will see how today goes. To me these are the standout stocks yesterday to trade due to recession fears. I don't really see a way out for TSLA regarding the boycotts. We've also seen a decently large move in the VIX (VXX) and we're close to above 60- I'm interested in shorting if we're above $60 but doubt we'll hit that today.
[**ASAN (Asana)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ASAN&p=d)
CEO/co-founder, Dustin Moskovitz announced retirement. The company reported Q4 revenues of $188.3M, a 10% YoY increase, and issued a revenue outlook for fiscal 2026 below expectations (resulting in the drop).
That drop was close to 25%, mainly because Dustin owns close to 54% of the company, which signals a LOT of uncertainty and lack of faith in the company. Overall outlook is decently disappointing, and I'm mainly interested in it if we break $11.50 and very interested in buying $10.
**Ticker:** [**AAL (American Airlines)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAL&p=d)
AAL projected a higher-than-expected Q1 loss and revised its revenue outlook downward, attributing the weaker forecast to softness in the domestic leisure segment. This is probably amplified by fears of flying, mainly due to people being terrified of all the plane accidents that have happened in 2025. Recession fears also lead to people cutting their vacations/discretionary spending and saving money, so things may get worse. Overall we're seeing a slight recovery in the premarket but still watching to see how this trades. To me airlines are one of the bigger leading signals of economic uncertainty so will continue watching. Other tickers that have moved on this are DAL, UAL, LUV. | 1,741,699,031 | 2025-03-11 13:17:11 | WinningWatchlist | 0 | 4 | 0.41 | null | /r/stocks/comments/1j8qi84/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0311/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1j8qi84/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0311/ | stocks | 3m |
1i7kch9 | What stocks are potentially going to be good for dividends. | The stocks I own for dividends right now, I been holding on to chase (JPM) for about 4 years now and it's been good. 2nd one is 3M (MMM) I got it during the beginning of January of 2024 and it's also been good. Last one I own is Ares Capital (ARCC) I just got this one in the beginning of this year 2025 and this one is doing good too. All of these have dividends so I wanna make it as a side income. Any recommendations? | 1,737,575,935 | 2025-01-22 19:58:55 | YoRobby246 | 0 | 34 | 0.36 | Rule 3: Low Effort | /r/stocks/comments/1i7kch9/what_stocks_are_potentially_going_to_be_good_for/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1i7kch9/what_stocks_are_potentially_going_to_be_good_for/ | stocks | 3m |
1i6ij9n | XPEL: Analyzing Growth Potential in the Automotive Market | Here’s my condensed analysis of XPEL: FYI: I focus on uncovering companies with strong growth potential and sharing my insights.
**Note:** All hyperlinks will lead you to direct source material
**Disclaimer:** I **DO NOT** own shares of XPEL at the time of writing
I would love to hear from the community and have a in-depth conversation from ya'll. Thank you & enjoy!
# Macro Overview:
**Electric Vehicle Growth**
The U.S. EV market is projected to show annual growth of 10.54% from 2025-2029, resulting in a market value of $156.3 billion by 2029 [according to Statista.](https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/united-states) Unit sales alone are projected to reach 2.32 million units by 2029 as well. Consumers now have significantly more choices when shopping for an electric vehicle. They can choose from offerings by [Tesla](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/), [Ford](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/), [GM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/), [Honda](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HMC/), Hyundai, and many others.
EV's often have unique aesthetic and maintenance needs that typically have high-quality protective films and coatings. The growth in consumer adoption of EV's coincides with Xpel products, particularly on the impact in the aftermarket. EV owners value vehicle preservation. This creates a growing market share for XPEL'S products. These products also include heat-reducing window films that indirectly enhance battery performance.
**Aging Vehicles**
The average car or truck on the road in the U.S in 2024, was more than 12.6 years old, a new record according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/fuel-for-thought-average-age-vehicles-2024.html#:~:text=Vehicles%20on%20the%20road%20are,by%20two%20months%20over%202023.). Consumers now choose to keep cars longer than they used to. This is largely because of the increases in new vehicle prices. As these older vehicles age, the demand for general maintenance and preservation are more-likely to rise.
Car price increases have climbed for four consecutive months, according to [Kelley Blue Book data](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/after-4-straight-months-price-increases-new-car-now-costs-nearly-50000). As of December 2024, the average price of a new vehicle was $49,740, the second-highest level ever recorded. Economic uncertainty and higher costs can discourage new purchases. This situation favors repairs and maintenance of existing vehicles as the fleet continues to get older before replacement.
**Technological advancements**
[Self-healing films](https://www.xpel.com/products/paint-protection-film/ultimate-plus?srsltid=AfmBOopjFd4lU0Io05gEI-r8EsK9Z7gIDE7DRjI1mI7yEhQAFqPDeofN) from XPEL and competitors [3M](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMM/), [Eastman Performance Films](https://www.eastman.com/en/who-we-are/locations/fieldale-va-usa), and [STEK Automotive](https://www.stekautomotive.com/) were released much earlier. They have recently gained traction as consumers want paint protection film to protect their vehicles. Self-healing films use polymer capable of automatically repairing minor scratches and abrasions when exposed to heat. As vehicles on the road become increasingly older, the demand for reduced effort in maintaining a vehicle's exterior will increase. Vehicle owners will likely seek easier maintenance solutions with minimal effort that repel against water, dirt, and scratches more easily. Consumers and manufacturers are increasingly adopting self-healing films. People who want to protect their older vehicles find XPEL appealing. It is also chosen to keep luxury cars in pristine condition.
# Investment Thesis:
XPEL is a compelling investment with an attractive growth story in the automotive sector. It is supported by a strong brand presence, international expansion growth, and financial strength. With high expectations, investors should take notice in the premium valuation risks apparent. Long-term growth is certainly compelling but there are clear short-term headwinds including macroeconomic uncertainties that require careful monitoring.
* **Product Diversification:** XPEL is widely known for their paint protection films. These films contribute to 70% of total Q3 sales and grew by 2.7%. Still, products like their window film and ceramic coatings have outperformed with growth of 20.6%. [Non-automotive products](https://s204.q4cdn.com/619560229/files/doc_presentations/2024/11/Q3-2024-XPEL-Investor-Presentation.pdf) like home & office window films, antimicrobial film, and niche surface protection film also out-performed by 11.6%. Together, both segments contributed 30% to total sales. Impressive growth outperformance though has largely been a significant reason for overall revenue growth in recent quarters.
* **International Expansion:** U.S. sales are the largest contributor to total revenue, accounting for 57.2% of the total and reaching $64.6 million in Q3, reflecting year-over-year growth of 9.4%. Despite the reliance on U.S. sales, International sales continue to outperform. Canada is the second largest contributor at 12.8% of revenue with growth of 25.7% to $14.4 million. All international markets saw growth except for the third largest market which is China. China saw a significant decline of -11.6% to just $9.06 million. The decrease was primarily attributed to XPEL's distributor working through excess inventory levels. With only a weighting of 8% of total sales, the negative growth did not hurt overall sales significantly. While XPEL faced challenges in China as well as minor growth of 4.1% and 1.4% in Europe and the U.K, strong international performance lead to record revenue.
* **Strategic Partnerships:** XPEL has established multiple strategic partnerships to expand its market presence. Recent collaborations with brands like [Tesla](https://lp.xpel.com/tesla-window-film), [Kia](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241030688212/en/XPEL-Showcases-New-Products-and-Collaborations-at-SEMA-2024), exclusive [Rivian](https://s204.q4cdn.com/619560229/files/doc_news/XPEL-and-Rivian-Expand-Collaboration-With-New-PPF-and-Window-Film-Program-2024.pdf) supplier partnership, [BMW](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241030688212/en/XPEL-Showcases-New-Products-and-Collaborations-at-SEMA-2024), and [Team Penske](https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelharley/2024/07/10/xpel-partners-with-team-penske-to-protect-indycars-and-drivers/) have been formed. These collaborations, including with service providers like [Tint World](https://www.tintworld.com/news-media/news-and-press/industry-leaders-tint-world-and-xpel-announce-partnership/), have strengthened market presence. Brand visibility and revenue growth have also increased as a result. The Tesla partnership in particular is of major importance due to their dominance in the EV market. These recent collaborations integrate XPEL's wide array of products into solutions for high-profile vehicles and events. The partnerships with Tesla and Rivian are particularly significant. They expand their reach into the electric vehicle market that continues to rapidly grow in the U.S. and internationally.
# Risk Factors:
* **Reliance On Chinese Distribution:** [Potential tariff threats to China](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-importers-rush-goods-china-trump-tariff-threat-looms-2025-01-15/) from a new administration will significantly impact XPEL if enacted. If new tariffs are applied, XPEL will be faced with increases in far materials leading to higher production costs. With the U.S market as the largest source of revenue at 57.2%, passing on further costs to consumers would likely reduce demand. Most importantly, reliance on one distributor could lead to supply chain constraints due to an over-reliance on one company. Price increases or delayed deliveries would harm relationships and hurt XPEL's brand.
* **The Culper Research Short Report:** On October 19, 2023, [Culper Research issued a short report](https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper_XPEL_10-19-2023.pdf?ver=1733419998410) sending XPEL's stock retreating -17.3% from $51.51 per share to $42.61. A notable accusation was XPEL's understated reliance on Tesla. [XPEL responded](https://ppfmag.com/short-seller-targets-xpel/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) by stating Tesla represented just 5% of 2023 revenue. Secondly, Culper believes XPEL is concealing a massive risk. Their primary supplier, "Entrotech, Inc", has formed a [joint venture with PPG Industries](https://news.ppg.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2023/PPG-launches-paint-films-solutions-for-automotive-and-industrial-customers/default.aspx) on May 23, 2023. Lastly, Culper's claim as seen below, would have massive repercussions for XPEL if they are correct.
* **Additional Culper Info:** The validity of Culper's claims on XPEL and others have been [called into question many times](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/827876/000166357721000030/ex99_1.htm) for self-benefiting public statements. What we do know for sure is the joint venture with PPG Industries is in fact truthful. The extent of which XPEL will become obsolete on the other is a highly questionable take. For some reason, Culper did not mention that XPEL stands out due to their DAP software. It is not because of the PPF raw material. Hence, XPEL would know exactly how much material and company their products were installed on. These allegations were made in 2023. XPEL has continued to show strong growth. The company has not skipped a beat.
# Conclusion
XPEL offers an attractive growth story in the automotive industry. This growth is supported by their strong market position and international expansion. The company also has a diverse product portfolio and strategic partnerships. A P/E ratio of 23.98 certainly wouldn't be viewed as cheap by any measures. Still, their P/E is significantly below their five-year average P/E of 41.6. Long-term growth remains compelling with the expectation of double-digit growth in the next two years.
Nonetheless, there are near-term headwinds. Sure, XPEL has displayed a history of growth, but near-term macroeconomic uncertainties regarding tariff concerns are worth monitoring. XPEL must consider how to react to such challenges since their distributor is based in China. For the reasons noted above, we still believe XPEL is a compelling BUY. It offers long-term sustainable growth, strategic partnerships, international expansion, and a strong balance sheet. | 1,737,465,999 | 2025-01-21 13:26:39 | Reasonable-Green-464 | 2 | 3 | 0.57 | Company Discussion | /r/stocks/comments/1i6ij9n/xpel_analyzing_growth_potential_in_the_automotive/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1i6ij9n/xpel_analyzing_growth_potential_in_the_automotive/ | stocks | 3m |
1hq5im5 | Analysis of XPEL | **The Business:**
XPEL sells, distributes, and installs protective paint film (PPF) along with other protective coatings and care products aftermarket in the automotive, marine, and architectural window markets. Founded in 1997, listed on the NASDAQ since 2019, XPEL began as a software company designing vehicle patterns used to produce cut-to-fit protective film for the painted surfaces of automobiles. In 2007, they expanded in selling automotive surface and paint protection film products to complement their proprietary software. They currently boast the best self-repairing PPF on the market with their ULTIMATE product line and operates in 12 countries globally.
In their 2023 Annual Report, revenues were generated in the following segments:
* Surface and Paint Protection film sales represented approximately 58.0% of consolidated revenue
* Installation, Dealership and OEM Services were roughly 18%
* Automotive Window film made up 14.8%
* Architectural window film sales represented approximately 2.3%
* SaaS subscription accounted for >2%.
* The remaining revenues came from ceramic coatings, aftercare products, and other misc. items.
Automotive products make up the vast bulk of their revenue with PPF wraps being the major revenue generator. To that end, XPEL has a certified installer program that is coupled with their Design Access Platform (“DAP”), which is a SAAS platform and database consisting of over 80,000 vehicle applications. The benefits of using software for installation include increased installation efficiency and reduction of waste. They primarily operate by selling directly to independent installers and new car dealerships, which includes XPEL protection films, installation training, access to the DAP software, marketing support and lead generation. Approximately 63.2% of consolidated revenue was through this channel in 2023. Sales are global, with North American representing 67.7% of total sales and China representing 10.5%.
**The Industry:**
I'm focusing on the the global automotive wrap films market because of the bulk of XPEL's revenue coming from this segment. The size of this market was valued at USD 6.21 Billion in 2022, Estimates range from 11% up to 22% out to 2032, which includes both the selling of and installation of PPFs. Thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) is the most popular material, which accounted for 82.74% of the market in 2023. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is another common material used in PPF. TPU boasts self-healing properties, which helps explain its dominance in the market.
**XPEL by the Numbers:**
* 23.6% CAGR on Revenue from 2021 to 2023.
* 2021 revenue growth was 63% over 2020, which skews the numbers a bit, but since 2019 revenue growth has been 18% or greater.
* EPS grew from $0.51 to $1.91 from 2019 to 2023, with the lowest YoY growth being 27%.
* Gross Margin percent has climbed into the low 40% range and has been increasing each year since 2019.
* Unlevered Free Cash Flow has climbed from $4.98m to $18.37m, 2019 to 2023.
* Long term debt, as of Q3 2024, sits under $1m. They have a Current Ratio of 4.35.
* Fiscal Year 2023 ended with ROE of 34.66%, ROA at 18.80%, and ROIC of 21.87%.
* Company boasts double digits in all three ratios since 2019.
* SG&A has grown significantly, up 4x from 2019 to Q3 2024 TTM.
* Growth in marketing strategy is management's explanation for the increase.
* They expect Q4 to be flat QoQ.
**Competitive Advantages:**
* Brand Name - Xpel has a very strong brand name in the North American PPF market. They protect their brand name through their certified installer program. Their ULTIMATE line is recognized as one of the top 2 products lines on the market; STEK being recognized as the other. XPEL's 10 year warranty shows they stand behind their product and adds another strength to the brand.
* Switching Moat (weak) - their DAP software is comprehensive. It ties in with the certified installer program. Installers complete the program, use the software, and buy the product. While not like switching from an Apple, Microsoft, or Enterprise software environment, it still represents some protection.
* Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights - while manufacturing is done third party, XPEL holds patents on their products. With the best self repairing wrap on the market, they have some pricing power on a premium product.
**The Risks**
* XPEL competes with big names, such as 3M, Eastman Chemical Company, Saint-Gobain, STEK, SunTek, LLumar, and others. XPEL is not a direct manufacturer of their products and rely on 3rd Part Manufacturers. They could lose their competitive advantage if someone brings a better product to market.
* Their business in China is localized through one distributor. Alteration to or loss of that relationship would seriously impact their revenue and bottom line.
* If the incoming Administration starts a trade war with China, it could seriously impair XPEL's business. Both from a sales standpoint and raw material costs.
* Failure to stand by their products or an excess of warranty claims could damage their brand, top line revenue, or costs that would impact the bottom line.
* A decline in the automotive industry as a whole would materially impact XPEL in their aftermarket industry.
**The Thesis:**
XPEL is a leader in their market and will continue to be. They are well positioned to take advantage of industry growth with their low asset model, nearly no long-term debt, and brand awareness to grow market share through acquisition and organic growth.
**Valuation:**
This company is still young and in a growth phase, so I feel a DCF Model is not the best way to go.\^1 Instead I'm using a Discounted Future Earnings model. Earnings growth over the last 5 years has grown at a CAGR of 30%. I'm using 20% over the next 5 years to be more conservative. I used a discounted rate of 12.7% which is a WACC value pulled online. Ending PE Ratio of 25. Fair market value would be **$59.00/share**. Using a 30% MoS because I'm still researching gives us a Buy Price of **$41.30**.
Based on my current analysis, I have opened a small, starter position in the company.
^(1 - a simple DCF using TTM Free Cash Flow with a 20% growth rate that is halved at 5 years then halved again for a terminal rate at 10 years, with a 30% MoS, yields a buy price of $16.41.)
^(§ - reposting my thoughts from another sub) | 1,735,615,338 | 2024-12-31 03:22:18 | Yo_Biff | 18 | 2 | 0.95 | Company Analysis | /r/stocks/comments/1hq5im5/analysis_of_xpel/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1hq5im5/analysis_of_xpel/ | stocks | 3m |
1hemiqk | Unusual machines post IPO financials, please explain how there’s value here… | Here is the [financial report](https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/dc42d320-9904-4869-bdff-a5da8e276025/5b5b951c-e05f-0d67-75ae-38e3fe4d21e0?origin=1) for unusual machines Q1 2024, which is all I can see available on their site which seems odd.
But to the point, can anyone after reading through these numbers and the included information possibly see how this company is valuable in that it’s stock has gone up close to 300% over the year?? To me it looks like they are swimming deeper and deeper in the red and with no real tangible reasoning to reverse that trend?
A 1.1M net loss in Q1 and only 3M cash on hand? No foreseeable increase in earning/cost ratio? Only $1000 in property and equipment assets? The bulk of their assets are “intangible or goodwill assets” at 18M…
I don’t really understand what I’m looking at here and why it does make sense if that’s the case. Please someone enlighten me! | 1,734,243,228 | 2024-12-15 06:13:48 | Yogurt_South | 19 | 22 | 0.76 | null | /r/stocks/comments/1hemiqk/unusual_machines_post_ipo_financials_please/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1hemiqk/unusual_machines_post_ipo_financials_please/ | stocks | 3m |
1hb2ean | These are the stocks on my watchlist (12/10) | Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.
This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I only hold some/all MAG 7 stocks and market indices long-term. If you use Old Reddit, click “Show Images” at the top to expand the charts. Any positions stated aren’t recommendations, I’m following subreddit rules to disclose positions. I use IBKR TWS for my platform and charts.
I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
PLEASE ask specific questions and PLEASE don’t ask about earnings because I usually don’t take positions beforehand. Questions like “Thoughts on \_\_\_\_\_?” or “Why isn’t \_\_\_ on the watchlist?” or something answered already will be ignored unless you add detail and your opinion.
If you post a question and delete it after I answer it, I will block you- doing that hurts discussion. I am not answering questions if I’m still long or short a stock beyond what I update. Please avoid asking questions that can easily be Googled; our time is valuable.
**I have decided to stop posting my biases due to trolls.**
News: [Google Invests In Venture To Build Energy Parks For Data Centers](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/google-invests-in-venture-to-build-energy-parks-for-data-centers)
[**TSLA**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA&p=d) \- Broke the $400 level yesterday, TSLA Model Q is supposedly coming in first half of 2025.
[**NAMS**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NAMS&p=d) \- Reveals Phase 3 Trial results for LDL Cholesterol reduction drug.
[**BA**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BA&p=d) \- Stated it restarted 737 Max production last week.
[**AI**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AI&p=d) \- EPS of -.06 vs -.13, revenue of $94.3M vs $91M expected. Stated it expects revenue growth to reaccelerate, but had mixed guidance.
[**ORCL**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ORCL&p=d) \- Missed Estimates due to cloud competition and high expectations (overall mixed guidance)- EPS of 1.47 vs 1.48 expected, revenue of 14.06B vs 14.11B expected.
GOOG- Reveals new quantum chip.
Earnings: GME | 1,733,839,277 | 2024-12-10 14:01:17 | WinningWatchlist | 50 | 41 | 0.72 | null | /r/stocks/comments/1hb2ean/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_1210/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1hb2ean/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_1210/ | stocks | 3m |
1ha0mia | Clover health investments (CLOV) why I’m buying in | I’m sure some of have seen this company mentioned before, but yea:
Clover Health Investments (CLOV) is a health tech company that focuses on Medicare Advantage plans, using its proprietary technology platform, Clover Assistant, to improve patient care and reduce healthcare costs. Its business model emphasizes equity in healthcare, chronic disease management, and early disease identification to enhance outcomes and control expenses.
Why CLOV is Gaining Attention:
1. Improved Financial Performance:
• In Q3 2024, CLOV reported a significant improvement in financial metrics:
• Adjusted EBITDA increased to $19.3M, up from $2.7M year-over-year.
• Insurance revenue rose 7% to $322.6M
• The company raised its full-year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $55-65M, signaling confidence in profitability and growth
2. Technical Indicators:
• Recent trading patterns suggest a potential reversal from a downtrend. Articles mention a “hammer chart pattern,” which indicates that selling pressure (from “bears”) may be weakening, potentially giving way to buying momentum (from “bulls”)
3. Strategic Advancements:
• CLOV achieved a 4.0-star rating for its flagship PPO plan, improving competitiveness and allowing for higher reimbursement rates from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)
Competitors and Similar Companies:
CLOV competes with other Medicare Advantage providers and health-tech-driven insurance companies like Humana (HUM), Alignment Healthcare (ALHC), and Oscar Health (OSCR).
• Humana, a larger player, has shown steady growth but operates at a different scale.
• Smaller competitors like Alignment Healthcare have also faced challenges similar to CLOV in maintaining profitability, with mixed stock performance in 2024.
Current Stock Performance:
CLOV has experienced significant volatility in 2024, with bears dominating earlier in the year. However, improved earnings, technical indicators, and bullish sentiment have made it a candidate for speculative recovery. It is still priced below many competitors, appealing to value-oriented investors
Conclusion:
Clover Health’s focus on leveraging technology for healthcare innovation and its financial turnaround make it a speculative buy for those willing to bet on its continued recovery and market positioning. However, its risks include cash flow concerns and competitive pressure. If you’re bullish on Medicare-focused tech-enabled insurers, CLOV could be worth considering while keeping an eye on market and regulatory developments. | 1,733,715,014 | 2024-12-09 03:30:14 | dremasterfanto | 0 | 9 | 0.37 | Company Discussion | /r/stocks/comments/1ha0mia/clover_health_investments_clov_why_im_buying_in/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ha0mia/clover_health_investments_clov_why_im_buying_in/ | stocks | 3m |
1gm6ue1 | Lucid Q3 results came in above estimates. Beating estimated EPS, revenue, and YOY EBITDA. | * EPS Actual is $-0.28 vs $-0.31 expected
* Revenue: $200M vs $196.3M expected
* Adjusted EBITDA $-613.1M better than $-634.4M of Q3 2023
* $5.16 billion in cash (excluding the \~1.75 billion raised in the recent public share offering)
* Current funds secure its capital into 2026
* Produced 1,805 vehicles in Q3; on track for annual production of approximately 9,000 vehicles
* Delivered 2,781 vehicles in Q3; up 90.9% compared to Q3 2023
* Lucid Gravity order starts today with production on track to begin later this year
* Rawlinson believes that the total addressable market for Gravity is six times that of Lucid Air
[https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results](https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results) | 1,731,029,095 | 2024-11-08 01:24:55 | Progress_8 | 72 | 34 | 0.88 | Company News | /r/stocks/comments/1gm6ue1/lucid_q3_results_came_in_above_estimates_beating/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1gm6ue1/lucid_q3_results_came_in_above_estimates_beating/ | stocks | 3m |
1ghwatj | SoFi's current sentiments going into a very exciting week. | * This time is different; the sentiments for SoFi shifted to an all-time high with the stock price holding well (the curse is broken) after the best quarter performance in SoFi's history. Analysts' price Target Upgrades and an overall increase in Buy ratings over this past month despite a 40.46% increase in stock price in one month.
* CME FedWatch puts a 98.9% chance of a 25bp interest rate cut on Nov. 7th after the important PCE report and Job report this past week. SoFi's core lending business is poised to gain from rising demand for personal, student, and home loans with the lowering of Fed interest rates.
* There are 113K Options in the money as of Nov. 1st, yesterday equated to 11.3M shares. Which would significantly help lift the stock price for this coming week.
* The election this coming Tuesday would be significant for SoFi stockholders as the CEO stated which administration would be better for SoFi's business. Currently, there is an event contract for both candidates with different prices based on the odds (I am not going to be political and not going to post that amount but you can search it for your very own curiosity) | 1,730,553,683 | 2024-11-02 13:21:23 | Progress_8 | 85 | 30 | 0.92 | Company Discussion | /r/stocks/comments/1ghwatj/sofis_current_sentiments_going_into_a_very/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ghwatj/sofis_current_sentiments_going_into_a_very/ | stocks | 3m |
1g86agq | Ripe for picking - (FDMT) 4D Molecular Therapeutics? | Their current pipeline focus "4D-150" is for treatment of Neovascular (Wet) Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD).
FDMT current market cap $443.30M
1. **Potential Market:**
- 20 million US citizens aged 40 and older have AMD, with 200,000 new cases added each year.
- 10-15% are Wet AMD, so 2-3 million affected.
- Current treatment involves Anti-VEGF shots into the eye every 4-12 weeks (lifelong treatment, no cure).
- Latest 4D-150 Phase 2 results show "83% overall reduction in annualized injections through 52 weeks" and "70% injection-free through 52 weeks".
- It's RNA-based, so shots will need to be repeated eventually.
- Current anti-VEGF treatment costs $13,875 to $24,000 per person annually.
- Conservative estimate: 4D-150 priced at $15,000 per shot (likely 2-3x higher as it's gene therapy), capturing 20% of 2 million market = 400,000 patients.
- **Potential annual revenue: $6 billion (400,000 * $15,000)**
- Global anti-VEGF market: $12.3 billion in 2022, estimated $13.7 billion by 2031.
- If 4D-150 captures 20% of that: $2.46 billion annually.
- **Potential market cap: $7.38 billion (3x revenue)** - a 1463% increase from current value (assuming successful Phase 3 and market entry). Assuming it will take 3-5 years for the drug to hit the market, we are looking at 300%-500% annual yield.
2. **Safety:** "Comparable to approved anti-VEGF agents", suggesting likely Phase 3 success and market entry.
3. **Competition:**
- Currently, no gene therapy drugs for AMD are on the market.
- 23 gene therapy studies for AMD are in various stages of clinical trials.
- Among these studies, only three companies are listed on NASDAQ:
- FDMT, ADVM, RGNX
- All at similar stages with comparable results (FDMT results slightly better (look at the "Reduction in Annualized Anti-VEGF Injections")).
4. **Finances:**
- FDMT has $541.95M cash, sufficient until 2030 (based on current FCF of -$87.17M)
- Competitors have 1.5-2 years of cash, likely facing dilution
- FDMT's market cap should be way higher when compared to those direct competitors (imo).
5. **Stock Performance Paradox:**
Despite consistently positive results, FDMT's stock has experienced a significant decline. Here's a breakdown of the situation:
- Since February 5th presentation which lead to a huge upward spike, FDMT has released two additional analyses of their 4D-150 drug:
- July 17 presentation
- September 18 presentation
- Both show even better numbers than the February results
**Potential Explanation for low stock price: Heavy Shorting**
- [This graph](https://i.imgur.com/xE0EjSx.jpeg) combines data from NASDAQ and StockAnalysis.com
- Between July 13-17 (after 2nd presentation release):
- Short interest dropped from 10.3M to 9.5M
- Spike in average daily share volume
- Interpretation: Short sellers likely closed positions after seeing good results, driving the price down
**Unexpected Consequence:**
- This triggered an investigation:
> "The investigation focuses on whether the Company issued false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose information pertinent to investors. 4D Molecular Therapeutics released the interim results of its Phase 2 PRISM study on Intravitreal 4D-150 on July 17, 2024. Despite the Company billing the results as positive, the stock fell by more than 35.8% in afternoon trading on the same day."
- In my opinion, the current situation isn't related to securities fraud, but rather reflects the inherent volatility of the biotech market. However, the mere mention of 'securities fraud' has negatively impacted the company's stock profile, leading to further declines. This has been exacerbated by repeated dissemination of this news on Accesswire since July.
Consequently, short interest has increased significantly, currently **41.39%** of the float is shorted with a 7-day cover period. This level of short interest seems **CRAZY** for a promising pre-revenue biotech stock and suggests the potential for a short squ-eeze.
While the timing is uncertain, the combination of high short interest and extended cover period indicates a likelihood of future price increases.
**TLDR**: FDMT shows strong potential in AMD treatment with better financials than competitors. Current stock price seems undervalued, possibly due to shorting. High short interest suggests potential for a squee-ze raising the current price substantially.
What are your thoughts? Am I missing any crucial points?
EDIT: I haven't started a position yet, this post is like a sanity check. | 1,729,451,091 | 2024-10-20 19:04:51 | yodalr | 7 | 4 | 0.65 | Company Analysis | /r/stocks/comments/1g86agq/ripe_for_picking_fdmt_4d_molecular_therapeutics/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1g86agq/ripe_for_picking_fdmt_4d_molecular_therapeutics/ | stocks | 3m |
1d9hx3f | These are the stocks on my watchlist (6/6) (for real this time) | Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.
This is a daily watchlist for trading.
I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.
I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.
Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on \_\_\_\_\_? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question.
**News:** [**U.S. Clears Way for Antitrust Inquiries of Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI**](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/05/technology/nvidia-microsoft-openai-antitrust-doj-ftc.html)
**NVAX-** Company said it would be able to deliver a regulator-recommended vaccine against a strain of COVID-19 by September.
**NVDA-** Watching the 1250 level. Might move down today on news of antitrust inquires from the Justice Dept. and FTC.
**LULU-** Company raises full-year earnings guidance, $2.54 vs $2.38 EPS. Also authorized a $1B stock buyback.
**GME-** Interested in the $33 level today. Still short calls, will likely hedge if we get up higher and break that level. Had a super interesting conversation with a trader friend that I’ll write up when I have more time.
**FIVE-** Discount retailer, cut its sales forecast for the year. $.60 vs $.63 cents expected, net sales missed $812M vs $834.3M.
**Earnings today :** DOCU, IOT,MTN
**IPO today:** LIF (Location tracker for your kids) | 1,717,679,778 | 2024-06-06 13:16:18 | WinningWatchlist | 43 | 20 | 0.75 | Company Discussion | /r/stocks/comments/1d9hx3f/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_66_for_real/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1d9hx3f/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_66_for_real/ | stocks | 3m |
1cu6nfp | These are the stocks on my watchlist (5/17) | Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.
This is a daily watchlist for trading.
I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.
I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.
Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on \_\_\_\_\_? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question.
**News:** [GameStop Extends Rout on Falling Sales, Plan to Sell Shares](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/gamestop-amc-shares-rise-after-two-day-7-billion-wipeout)
Again, meme stocks worth watching today, but less interested overall compared to past three days.
**GME- News above. Company filing to sell up to 45M common shares at ATM offering. Stock has plummeted premarket as a result**
**RDDT- Reported earnings and guidance (-27M vs -3M, revenue of 875M vs 1B exp. OpenAI to bring Reddit content to ChatGPT. Heaven help us.**
TTWO- Reports Q4 GAAP -$17 vs 0.07e, revenue 1.4B vs 1.34B expected.
CB- Again, from two days ago, this stock is revealed as Buffett’s newest investment.
MSFT- Planning to place newest COD on subscription service.
ASTS- Partnership with AT&T. | 1,715,956,198 | 2024-05-17 14:29:58 | WinningWatchlist | 0 | 14 | 0.38 | null | /r/stocks/comments/1cu6nfp/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_517/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1cu6nfp/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_517/ | stocks | 3m |
1co28mz | Solventum Reports First Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Capital Allocation Update | [https://investors.solventum.com/2024-05-09-Solventum-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Capital-Allocation-Update](https://investors.solventum.com/2024-05-09-Solventum-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Capital-Allocation-Update)
* Reported sales increased 0.2% to $2.016 billion, organic sales increased 0.9%
* GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.37; adjusted non-GAAP EPS of $2.08
* Generated $442 million in cash from operations; Non-GAAP free cash flow of $340 million
* Reaffirms full-year 2024 guidance
Full-Year 2024 Guidance (non-GAAP)
* Organic sales growth of -2% to 0%
* Adjusted EPS of $6.10 to $6.40
* Free cash flow of $700M to $800M. According to slides below, $1,200M to $1,300M excluding CAPEX. No breakdown of whether this is all growth CAPEX or maintenance CAPEX.
Capital Allocation (mentioned on [March 19th investor day)](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_807a4b4c4d02577830ace1b6b213e95d/3m/db/3194/30840/presentation/Solventum+Investor+Day+3.19.2024_vF.pdf)
* 24 months of paying down debt before any distribution (dividend or share repurchases)
* Claims that the CAPEX will result in innovation and growth even though their 2024 could be -2% growth where their addressable market grows 6% optimistically per year
* Growth strategies: Improve WAMGR (Weighted Average Market Growth Rate), evolve commercial model, increase output of new products, M&As (differentiated & clinician-preferred solutions)
Personal Takeaways
On slide 48 They claim that paying down debt improves free cash flow by reducing interest expense but free cash flow by definition excludes interest expense. Maybe they mean free cash flow to equity?
I was waiting for earnings to decide whether to keep the shares or to divest. I'm leaning towards divesting. There's too much focus on "growth" given the amount of projections they've provided. It's a mature business yet they aren't forthcoming if CAPEX is going to be that large every year or if it's this large just for the current year. If I were to assume they won't reduce CAPEX (i.e. they will fund growth), I get a low valuation. Considering that they will take 2 years to pay off debt, this is more of a stock to HOLD than a screaming buy. The spin-off was already a massive distribution in my opinion and with 3M using the spin-off as a reason to slash its own dividend, it doesn't seem like its worth owning both SOLV and MMM anymore.
Thoughts? | 1,715,274,256 | 2024-05-09 17:04:16 | Elibroftw | 7 | 1 | 0.65 | Company News | /r/stocks/comments/1co28mz/solventum_reports_first_quarter_2024_financial/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1co28mz/solventum_reports_first_quarter_2024_financial/ | stocks | 3m |
1b5st7x | SMCI - My BEAR case | I have been hearing a lot of buzz around SMCI lately and there is a lot of chatter about it being put into the S&P at the next rebalance (snapshot date is this upcoming Friday, 08 March 2024 and implement date is the following Friday after close I believe.)
​
I am going to make my bear case for this stock by not looking at fundamentals at all and only using basic rebalance principles. Since the vast majority of Americans have their money passively flowing into these broad indices and not caring about the specific underlying stocks anyways, I think it is only fitting to remove fundamental company analysis entirely.
​
As it stands, SMCI is trading at $905.48 and has a market cap of $50.65 billion USD.
Currently, SMCI is trading in the Russell 2000 (RUT). It is the highest cap stock in the RUT by about 3x. This disparity is why I believe that joining the S&P 500 is a death sentence to the stock price, and the downwards pressure and volatility will happen extremely quickly once it is added. I will explain why.
The majority of investors nowadays invest their money passively through retirement accounts/401k's or just are told that their money is safer if you put it into ETFs. This results in a MASSIVE amount of inflow into a basket of stocks without much/any DD discerning the individual stocks in the basket. As for market cap weighted indices/ETFs, the percentage of that index is based on the market cap of the stock.
If I put $1,000 into the RUT, as it currently stands, $1.62 of that will be towards SMCI, while the next highest stock, MSTR, will receive $0.51. As SMCI increases in market cap, even more of the inflow into the RUT will get pumped passively into SMCI. This is a self-perpetuating cycle of inflow into the highest capped stock(s) in the index.
Now onto the S&P 500. I am going to compare SMCI to 3M, which has a market cap of $50.77 billion and is currently sitting in the S&P 500. 3M is weighted to 0.12% of the entire S&P, meaning it receives approximately 0.12% of the inflow. If SMCI enters into the S&P, I expect it to receive about the same, 0.12% inflow. Now looking at the daily volume of SPY (S&P ETF) vs IWM (RUT ETF), there is about 5.5x the flow of SPY vs. IWM, meaning SPY gets 5.5x more money going through it daily.
Doing some quick math off this, SMCI is currently sitting at an inflow of 1.62%(IWM) and will turn into 0.12%(SPY). Turning the units of SPY into IWM, we multiply the 0.12 by 5.5, so 0.12%(SPY)\*5.5(SPY)/(IWM) nets us 0.65%(IWM).
The ratio of inflow into SMCI immediately after it enters the S&P will be 0.65/1.62\*100 = 40% of what it is currently getting while outperforming in the RUT.
This tells me that the inflow into SMCI is going to take a 60% decline overnight as soon as it gets put into the S&P. Obviously there are other factors and the RUT is not the only ETF or fund trading SMCI right now, but the underlying argument still stands that the inflow is going to be GREATLY reduced instantaneously, likely causing a massive shock to the stock price.
This same calculation can be used on other over or underperforming stocks in their indices if they are set to jump from one index to another.
​
Feel free to argue me on this one if you disagree with me! | 1,709,501,816 | 2024-03-03 21:36:56 | TheUltimator5 | 27 | 33 | 0.7 | ETFs | /r/stocks/comments/1b5st7x/smci_my_bear_case/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b5st7x/smci_my_bear_case/ | stocks | 3m |
1b1gven | Thoughts on 3M spinoff Solventum on stock price and dividend? | A recent announcement states the 3M will spinoff its healthcare unit Solventum on Apr 1, 2024. At this time there is no indication of how it will effect MMM stock price or dividend. What is a reasonable expectation of the impact of this divestiture on MMM price and dividend?
https://news.3m.com/2024-02-21-3M-Announces-Filing-of-Form-10-Registration-Statement-for-Planned-Spin-Off-of-Health-Care-Business-as-Solventum | 1,709,053,252 | 2024-02-27 17:00:52 | LunacyNow | 9 | 14 | 0.8 | Company Discussion | /r/stocks/comments/1b1gven/thoughts_on_3m_spinoff_solventum_on_stock_price/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b1gven/thoughts_on_3m_spinoff_solventum_on_stock_price/ | stocks | 3m |
1axkz6l | 3M Spinoff Company in the works set for April 1st. | 3M Co.’s health care spinoff, Solventum Corp., will launch April 1.
More details emerged Wednesday with a public securities filing from the Maplewood-based manufacturer about the new company made up of what is currently 3M's health care businesses. Solventum will have more than 20,000 employees. As of now, Solventum will be based at 3M's headquarters in Maplewood.
3M (NYSE: MMM) notes in the filing that separating the two companies brings benefits, such as the ability to tailor their investment decisions to drive growth, allowing management to focus on strengthening core businesses, improving operational agility and better accessing capital by creating distinct investment profiles that appeal to different investors.
LINK: https://l.smartnews.com/p-jGucE/MapD5d
| 1,708,643,747 | 2024-02-22 23:15:47 | superbilliam | 115 | 29 | 0.95 | Company News | /r/stocks/comments/1axkz6l/3m_spinoff_company_in_the_works_set_for_april_1st/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1axkz6l/3m_spinoff_company_in_the_works_set_for_april_1st/ | stocks | 3m |
18wpmid | Pagaya financials headed into 2024 | I recently have had my eyes on PGY and started a small position that I will likely be increasing after Q4 earnings are released. Q3 saw record network volume of 2.1B, record revenue of 211.8M and record adjust EBIDTA of 28.3M. They also raised full year 2023 guidance on all metrics and have been partnering with some promising names ( Exeter , Sofi & a top 5 bank in the US ) Kathy woods also started acquiring Pagaya recently. I am expecting that it’s use of AI in determining credible applicants will only grow as AI infiltrates all sectors slowly but surely. Would love to hear your feedback / opinions on this company. Happy New Years to everyone !! | 1,704,202,696 | 2024-01-02 13:38:16 | Daleyman13 | 14 | 4 | 0.82 | null | /r/stocks/comments/18wpmid/pagaya_financials_headed_into_2024/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18wpmid/pagaya_financials_headed_into_2024/ | stocks | 3m |
18dy44d | $CAVA – DECEMBER SHORT PLAY (Potential Crash and/or Death Spiral) | Below is my personal thesis based on my own research. And I do research… all the time… perhaps too much.
**1. OVERVIEW & CATALYST**
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) owns and operates a chain of around 280 Mediterranean restaurants. The company offers salads, dips, spreads, toppings, and dressings. It sells its products through whole food markets and grocery stores. The company also provides online food ordering services. Cava Group, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in Washington, DC.
The company had a successful IPO in mid-June of 2023. Shares opened at $42 apiece on the NYSE, nearly double the IPO price of $22. Cava sold about 14.4 million shares in the offering, raising around $318 million.
However, the IPO Lockup Period Expiration is happening next week (12/12/2023), where a huge amount of insider shares will become available to trade on a thinly (recently averaging 1-1.3M shares/day) traded stock. Year-end tax benefits or not, no one wants to hold the bag as many early investors are likely to realize a relatively quick profit (initial pre-IPO shares were sold for $19-$20/share or cheaper).
Every time I was involved in situations where the individual/institutional investors would have to “HODL” their shares/coins, it never worked, not even once. Everything gets dumped the second it becomes possible.
As more investors try to realize their profits and there are minimal number of buyers, the stock might enter a free fall for a while. Also, other institutions would want to come in at a much lower level, so they will not interfere for a while. Eventually the stock will find its floor, but I expect it to be at much lower price point, possibly at $8-$12 range. I specifically chosen the Jan 19th puts to give this play some “breathing” room.
**2. VALUATION**
IMO, by every measure the company is currently is overvalued. With the last quarter revenue of $175.55 million and negative net income, the company’s current free float valuation stands at over $4B with a P/E ratio of over 460! CAVA is expected to have about $850M of revenue in 2024 with about 9% EBITDA margins, but only 1.5% net income margins, which at best would make it a $1B company and that is everything goes perfect by the end of next year, which again would equate to about $9/share (in the future).
As initial IPO hype has dies down, the stock (peaking at around $58/share) seems to continuously trend down (similar to Sweetgreen Inc., which started IPO at around $53/share a couple of years ago and got all the way down to $6.50/share, before recovering to a current $10.50/share). Ironically, Sweetgreen ($SG) was founded in 2007 also in Washington, DC.
The trajectory repeating Chipotle’s success stock-wise, even long-term is unlikely for multiple reasons (including Product & Competition section below).
Portfolio managers at Artal Group, T. Rowe Price, Swan Hospitality, Revolution Growth, Capital International Investors or all other major $CAVA shareholders (as well as company principals) that control tens of millions of shares in total should trip over each other to offload at least a portion of their holdings (as I am sure, like me they see the stock dwindling down to sub-$10 price range). This can create a temporary death spiral and bring the price down very quickly.
**3. PRODUCT & COMPETITION**
I have personally been a Carnivore now for several months. I am down 48lbs (and counting) and feeling much better than before. I have studied the Carnivore diet in great detail every day for the past 7 months, listened to hundreds of lectures and read thousands of testimonials. It is blatantly clear to me that I have been eating completely wrong my whole life and there’s an overwhelming amount of data to show that Carnivore (or at least Ketovore) is the way to eat. I am continuously sharing my research with my family and closest friends, but I do “meat” (couldn’t help myself) lots of resistance – it’s a process.
As the Carnivore movement gains more and more popularity, I expect a major shift from plant- based “healthy” choices to animal product outlets, restaurants and chains. Please check out thousands of video lectures and interviews on YT of Drs. Anthony Chaffee, Shawn Baker, Ken Berry and many others and see for yourself. This could be one of the most important decisions for you and your family.
That said, I source, grind, grill and season all of my meat and fish myself to ensure the hyper-optimal quality of my nutrition. However, when travelling I occasionally buy meat-based dishes at Chipotle, QDOBA, Shake Shack, McDonalds, Burger King, Chick-fil-A and other food chains and restaurants. I would strip out all the carbs and vegetables and consume just the meat/fish. While that’s not ideal, it suffices once in a while and most Carnivores would agree with me. And by once in a while, I mean once or twice per month out of 60 (or so) meals.
I’ve looked into CAVA’s menu and found nothing that any Carnivore would find appropriate for human consumption, let alone anything being “healthy”. While some dishes do contain chicken, typically birds are considered barely above eating cardboard in the Carnivore world, as they are typically kept in horrible conditions, fed absolute (often GMO) garbage (including cuts of other birds), and don’t have multiple stomachs (e.g. cows) to process their own (modified) food properly. So, technically it’s still considered meat, but it carries very marginal nutritional value. All other items include carbs (converts to sugar), sugar (feeds cancers) and vegetables (thousands of various low-grade toxins), none of which our ancestors ate in any significant quantities.
So, while other chains and restaurants are not particularly great by any stretch of imagination either, at least you can find meats and fish there (if you must eat out), while CAVA would be my least favorite choice. I’ve read many reviews and people’s reactions are mixed between the price and quality of CAVA’s food (seemingly more negative than positive). Like many other places they are fighting an uphill battle. Rebranding to a radically opposite diet would not work well either.
Furthermore, there are other chains out there with somewhat similar offerings on top of hundreds of thousands of general restaurants on every corner. Their prices are not particularly great and margins are quite thin, like with most restaurants.
**4. CONCLUSION**
I expect a bloodbath in the next few weeks. The stock already started to crack. “Don't sugar coat it, Taj” (Van Wilder, 2002) seems an appropriate quote here.
Questions and comments are welcomed.
**POSITIONS:** $CAVA 01/19/24 $30 & $35 puts, considering short $CAVA shares
**TL;DR:** Become a Carnivore and buy Jan 19 2024 $30/$35 puts on $CAVA and short $CAVA shares | 1,702,073,464 | 2023-12-08 22:11:04 | Veritatis-Cupitor | 10 | 42 | 0.66 | Company Analysis | /r/stocks/comments/18dy44d/cava_december_short_play_potential_crash_andor/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18dy44d/cava_december_short_play_potential_crash_andor/ | stocks | 3m |
17r9m69 | InPost Group: Q3 EBITDA up 40% yoy, Q3 EBIT up 75% yoy. Revenue +22% yoy, net leverage down | [InPost S.A. (Yahoo Finance)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INPST.AS/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAFczN3JDtOH_MynmgiIfmTzmn6IrZBvgDL5GQwYMBTHltaob8N8w5_NXetijdjeM9T2-i0Hk0qOwdmYf1jELjBnZiu_CBXNMojfmXYes-Adnp66M5SBD8fdX94zl3BmBHoTaHAqOqbf6Om-J2fzNC4lv6wJ-kgVNNqW-RpMty_t)
Last year I wrote a short post about InPost: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xbif69/inpost\_sa\_inpst\_analysis\_why\_i\_think\_its\_a\_great/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xbif69/inpost_sa_inpst_analysis_why_i_think_its_a_great/)
Since then the stock is up by over 50% and I am still buying & holding. +3% today after earnings.
[Press Release](https://inpost.eu/sites/default/files/2023-11/Q3%202023%20InPost%20Press%20Release%2009.11.2023_0.pdf)
[Detailed Q3 & 9M 2023 results](https://inpost.eu/sites/default/files/2023-11/Q3%202023%20financial%20results.pdf)
**Summary (Q3)**:
* **Parcel volume** 210m (+18% YoY)
* **Revenue** 2,067.2m PLN (+22% YoY)
* **Adjusted EBITDA** 639.4m PLN (+40% YoY)
* **Net leverage** 2.6x (down from 3.2x vs 2022 YE)
* \+13% **volume increase** in Poland, +28% international
* **UK market finally profitable** & growing very rapidly. InPost has the **#1 APM network** in UK.
* **UK revenue**: 125.2m PLN (+138% YoY), **UK adjusted EBITDA**: 11.3m PLN
* **FCF** 310.9m PLN
* **Volumes ahead of the market in all markets**
​ | 1,699,523,736 | 2023-11-09 09:55:36 | frankjohnsen | 5 | 3 | 0.73 | Company News | /r/stocks/comments/17r9m69/inpost_group_q3_ebitda_up_40_yoy_q3_ebit_up_75/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17r9m69/inpost_group_q3_ebitda_up_40_yoy_q3_ebit_up_75/ | stocks | 3m |
17fkx76 | Summary of Oct 24 morning earnings | * SPOT Spotify ⬆️ up almost 9% as it reports a quarterly profit and hits 226M subscribers
* KO Coca-Cola ⬆️ up 3% after topping estimates and raising guidance
* VZ Verizon ⬆️ up 9% after earnings & subscriber growth top estimates
* GE ⬆️ up a 7% after profit beat & 'rapid growth' in aviation business
* MMM 3M ⬆️ up almost 6% after earnings beat, raising profit forecast | 1,698,175,348 | 2023-10-24 19:22:28 | FaatmanSlim | 27 | 6 | 0.88 | Broad market news | /r/stocks/comments/17fkx76/summary_of_oct_24_morning_earnings/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17fkx76/summary_of_oct_24_morning_earnings/ | stocks | 3m |
16pb52s | What stocks do you like? | What stocks would you get?
I got a 25k bonus in the start of September. Right now I am maxing out my 401k and my Roth. I usually just buy Voo, Vti, little bit of Vt, Dividend stocks and etfs Like O, Vym, 3m, Ko, Vz, JnJ, Xom. I also have some Eth and 2 bitcoins lol.
So I'm curious if I should keep doing what I'm doing or also add in some individual stocks. I kind of like Nvidia, Amazon, Nucor, Ford, Delta, Sofi etc.
What would you get? What's your favorite stock? And any particular reason?
For context I am 35 and plan to hold for 20 to 40 years. I am not opposed to other investments like crypto or other stuff. | 1,695,391,327 | 2023-09-22 14:02:07 | Severe-Spirit4547 | 73 | 312 | 0.77 | null | /r/stocks/comments/16pb52s/what_stocks_do_you_like/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/16pb52s/what_stocks_do_you_like/ | stocks | 3m |
16odnok | 3m value trap or perfect buy in | So timing the market is impossible but I was going through one of my old watch lists from years ago and saw 3m.
Couple of things they owe lots of expensive debt and money, 3m as a company isn’t going anywhere but the question is will it recover to the $200 price range in the next decade. Very much reminds of me of intel, cisco and ibm, Texas Instruments.
Right now it gives 1.50 dividend per quarter which is pretty high for the type of stock it is, expecting a cut.
Couple of other things 9B in debt at 2027, there also the chemical law suit 10b and the ear plugs one 6b so potentially will the stock drop lower to the 50 range.
The company is an industry gaint, I have a feeling the activist investors might take interest soon, similar to crm which back fired my short position. | 1,695,296,588 | 2023-09-21 11:43:08 | Ragepower529 | 46 | 38 | 0.87 | Company Discussion | /r/stocks/comments/16odnok/3m_value_trap_or_perfect_buy_in/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/16odnok/3m_value_trap_or_perfect_buy_in/ | stocks | 3m |
15oob56 | Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023 | Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023.
# **Nasdaq Composite slips Friday, falls two weeks straight for the first time in 2023: Live updates - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)**
*****
> The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday lower and notched its second consecutive losing week in 2023 as semiconductor stocks languished.
*****
> The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid about 0.6% to end at 13,644.85, pulled down by a selloff in semiconductor stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia and Micron. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) ended the week down 5.2%, its worst week since October 2022.
*****
> The S&P 500 inched lower by 0.1%, ending at 4,464.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 105.25 points, or 0.3%, closing at 35,281.40. The 30-stock index was helped by advances of 2.1% and 1.8% in Chevron and Merck & Co., respectively.
*****
> The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declined about 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively, on the week. Both registered their second straight losing week — a first of that length for the technology-heavy Nasdaq since the conclusion of a four-week losing streak in December 2022.
*****
> The Dow is an outlier of the three major averages, advancing 0.6% this week.
*****
> Investors had much to celebrate earlier in the week.
*****
> July’s consumer price index, a major inflation reading for markets and the Federal Reserve, came in softer than anticipated on a year-over-year basis. Prices climbed 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.3%.
*****
> To be sure, the CPI reading showed some signs of stickiness. So-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 4.7% from the prior year.
*****
> Elsewhere, Disney rallied on the back of its earnings report released Wednesday. Despite a pullback in Friday’s session, shares were 3.2% higher on the week. That marks the biggest weekly gain for the entertainment giant since March.
*****
> But inflation data released Friday complicated the picture. July’s producer price index, which tracks the price wholesalers pay for raw goods, rose 0.3% from the previous month. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a 0.2% increase month over month.
*****
> This week’s moves are the latest in what’s been a rocky patch for the stock market after a strong performance in the first half of the year. The three major indexes are all lower than where they began August.
*****
> “Investors continue to try to hang their hat on more consistency” within economic data, said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments. “What we’re seeing with these mixed results certainly increases the likelihood of more volatility ahead.”
*****
# **This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/39gIPDG.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/v6oPKc4.png))**
# **Major Indices for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/Lnhh3ON.png))**
# **Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/aKSZenr.png))**
# **Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/0EXkZVf.png))**
# **Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/WIFRBit.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for the Past Week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/qM1ECGT.png))**
# **Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/aAI9kHn.png)**
# **Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/TaaFi7f.png))**
# **Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/TOK8mjS.png))**
# **Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/hJqQHKA.png))**
# **Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/f7AWP21.png))**
*****
> # Looking for a Mid-August Bounce After Weak Start
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/458b256926b027a6198d940e5576926d/7778c651dc41d06a-fb/s500x750/a5d8bb981b690e42143e64d57d6152168295aac5.jpg))**
> Despite modest gains yesterday by DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, all the major indexes we track were down over the first eight trading days of August. As of yesterday’s close, August 10, NASDAQ was the weakest, off 4.24% this month. Russell 2000 was the second weakest, down 4.02%. S&P 500 slipped 2.62% while DJIA was down 1.08%. Compared to past pre-election year August performance since 1950, this August has tracked closely. Should the market continue to track the historical pre-election year August pattern, a mid-month bounce could begin soon. This historical mid-month move is shaded in yellow in the following chart.
*****
> # Why $1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt Isn’t a Bad Thing
> “It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” -Henry David Thoreau
> It finally happened, US consumers officially have more than $1 trillion in credit card debt, an all-time record. Not surprisingly, many claimed this was a sign the consumer was tapped out and simply spending and buying everything on credit cards. We don’t think it is that simple, in fact, we’d take the other side that this isn’t a major warning sign and the consumer is still quite healthy and not up to their eyeballs in debt.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-1-1-800x529.png))**
> Every quarter the New York Fed releases their Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, and this is the report that just showed record credit card debt. Here’s a great chart that showed overall debt reached $17.06 trillion. Peeling back the onion showed that mortgage debt stood still at $12.01 trillion as of the end of June, making up a huge part of overall debt. Credit cards were up $45 billion to $1.03 trillion, meanwhile, car loans were at $1.58 trillion and student loans checked in at $1.57 billion.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-2-1-800x580.png))**
> What stands out to me the most about the chart above is overall debt was virtually flat the past two quarters, from $17.05 to $17.06 trillion. Tells a much different picture than what the media makes it sound like with all the ‘soaring debt’, huh?
> I really like the chart below from the NY Fed’s report that zooms in on the relative size of each part of debt. If you look at credit card debt specifically, it has consistently stayed in the same range over the long-term. So, credit card debt might be at a nominal record, but by no means are we seeing consumers go nuts buying everything on credit anymore than they ever have in history.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-3-1.png))**
> Another way to think about this is wouldn’t people likely have more credit card debt if they were worth more? I call this ‘denominator blindness’. All we hear about is the numerator at a new high, but in a lot of cases, the denominator has been soaring as well. Go read the quote at the top from Thoreau again. I love that one, as there are different ways to look at things and to me, seeing the denominator is very important.
> Here’s a good way to show this, overall net worth has increased significantly over time, from $44 trillion in 2000 to close to $150 trillion today. Maybe more credit debt shouldn’t be a surprise?
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-4-1.png))**
> Taking that same denominator blindness approach and looking at the percentage change of credit card debts and net wealth showed a much better backdrop. Since 2000, credit card debt has gained 106%, but net worth was up close to 250%. I will say it again, maybe more credit debt shouldn’t be such a surprise?
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-5-800x545.png))**
> Yes, rates are higher and there’s a lot of debt, so one logical question is: can consumers pay for all this debt? Here’s a great chart showing household debt service payments as a percentage of disposable income was down to 9.6% in the first quarter, well below the pre-pandemic average of 11.2%. In simple English, there might be a lot of debt, but people are making more money so it isn’t such a stretch to service all the debt. The second quarter data isn’t out yet, but given disposable income has increased and debt likely stayed flat, this will probably fall again soon.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-6.png))**
> Here’s yet another way to show things aren’t as bad out there as it sounds. Credit card debt as a percentage of disposable income is 21%, still below the 22% from the end of 2019 and well beneath the 2003-2019 average of 26%. In other words, people have been making more than they have been adding to their credit cards the past few years.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-7.png))**
> But aren’t people just maxing out their credit cards? No they aren’t is the quick and simple answer. Here’s a chart that looks at credit utilization to show what we mean. Credit utilization is how much of your credit limit you are using. Sure enough, this has held steady at 22%, compared with the pre-pandemic level of 24%. Even home equity credit utilization is running at 38%, well beneath the historical average of 51%. Again, this might shock most people who saw on the nightly news how ‘high overall debt’ has been lately. It simply isn’t true.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-8.png))**
> That’s enough about denominator blindness. Another thing we keep hearing is how consumers are in bad shape and the glass house is about to crack. Yet again, this just isn’t true, as delinquency balances didn’t increase last quarter, with 97.4% of total balances current on payments, unchanged from last quarter and higher than it was at the end of 2019. The chart below shows that delinquent balances that are more than 120 days late (including severely derogatory) are just 1.3% of total balances, below the 2.8% level before the pandemic.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-9.png))**
> There has been a jump in serious delinquencies on credit cards, but this is also simply getting back to more normal levels. The good news is other areas haven’t jumped higher yet.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-10.png))**
> Here’s one that might shock most people, third-party collections hit an all-time low. If the consumer was in such bad shape like they keep telling us, this would probably show a much different backdrop. In fact, only 4.6% of consumers have collections against them, the lowest in history and well beneath the 6.3% from a year ago and 9.2% average through 2019.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-11.png))**
> Another way of showing consumers are in better shape than they keep telling us is business applications are soaring. In other words, entrepreneurship is soaring, not something you tend to see when people are worried about paying that next bill. Nearly 300,000 applications were filed the first half of this year, 2% more than last year and 21% above 2019.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-12.png))**
> I will end this blog (which turned out to be much longer than I expected) with some help from three of my friends.
> First up, Callie Cox at eToro noted that credit card debt as a percent of total bank deposits was still historically low.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-13.png))**
> Neil Dutta at RenMac noted that household balance sheets are in fine shape, as household debt to income fell to nearly 86% in Q2, the lowest level since Q4 2021. Neil surmises that it is incomes, not debt, that are the main drivers of consumption lately.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-14.png))**
> Lastly, economists at Wells Fargo in a recent note said one major positive down the road is home equity. Consumers are sitting on trillions in equity and this could help in a lot of ways over the coming years. Read their great report for more on this concept.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-15.png))**
> We are aware the headlines regarding record credit card debt, student loan forgiveness and now some talk of credit card forgiveness are causing much anxiety for investors. Our take is we doubt there will be any forgiveness plans, especially in an election year. Instead, these headlines are being used in the media to create more division, eyeballs and clicks.
> The bottom line to us is the consumer remains in much better shape than the average investor realizes.
*****
> # Disinflation is Happening, And There’s More to Come
> Inflation has been top of mind for investors over the past year and a half, both from the perspective of what that means for the economy as well as monetary policy. So, the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks a basket of goods and services purchased by households, looms large every month. The big question going into this report was: inflation has pulled back, but will it stay lower and continue to pull back further?
> Based on the July report, the answer is yes.
Headline CPI rose 0.2% in July, as was expected. Inflation was up 3.2% year-over-year, a tick below expectations for a 3.3% reading. That’s well below the June 2022 level of 9%. As you can see in the chart below, energy, food, and vehicle prices have driven inflation lower.
> Over the past year:
> * Energy prices are down 12%
> * Food price inflation has eased to 4.9% (it was 11% in July 2022)
> * Used car prices are down 6%
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-headline-CPI-662x800.png))**
> Looking at year-over-year numbers can be a little misleading, especially because they’re dependent on the data from a year ago and that’s not particularly helpful to understand what’s happening right now. At the same time, monthly data can be noisy. That is why I like to look at the 3-month average, and as of July, headline inflation is running at a 1.9% annual pace over the past 3 months.
> We got good news on the core inflation front too, which is what the Federal Reserve focuses on since it removes volatile components like food and energy. Core inflation rose 0.2% in July, and over the last three months, it’s running at an annual pace of 3.1%. That’s a decisive shift lower from what we’ve seen over the past year and a half.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-headline-core-inflation-3M-changes-567x800.png))**
> There are two big reasons why core inflation is pulling back, and it gets to why we believe inflation has more room to go lower. Vehicle and shelter make up 50% of the core inflation basket, and so what happens there is critical. Let’s talk about these.
> As I noted above, used car prices are pulling back. In fact, private data indicates that used car prices have fallen 11% since March, but that’s yet to be fully reflected in official data. So, there’s further room to fall over the next couple of months. Also, new vehicle prices have fallen about 0.5% since March, and this could continue moving lower as auto production improves and inventories rise.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-used-car-prices-597x800.png))**
> Shelter inflation has been decelerating for a while now. It was running at an 8-10% annual pace at the beginning of the year. That slowed to the 6-7% range between March and May, and over the last two months, it’s moved below 6%. That’s progress, albeit slow.
> However, we know there’s a lot more room to go further down based on what’s happening in the rental market. Note that official shelter inflation does NOT include home prices and is just a measure of rents. Vacancies are up, and data from Apartment List shows that the national average rent is down 1% over the past year as of July.
> Official shelter inflation may not get to that low a level, but safe to say, it’s heading a lot lower from where it is now. Shelter inflation averaged about 3-3.5% between 2018-2019, which was consistent with core inflation running at 2% (the Fed’s target). Based on what we know now, shelter could fall to an annual pace as low as 2.5%, and that would be a significant downward force on inflation.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-rnets-apartment-list-vs-official-598x800.png))**
> Even beyond vehicles and shelter, there are positive signs.
> A lot of supply-chain-impacted categories, like household furnishings and apparel, are also seeing disinflation. Airfares have been falling for four straight months now, with prices 20% lower from March. Even hotel/motel prices are down 4% over the same period. Of course, this is unlikely to continue, but it is more than welcome.
> All in all, the big takeaway is that disinflation is happening, and we’re likely to see more of it going forward.
> This also means the Federal Reserve is less likely to raise rates again at their September meeting. And if the inflation data progresses as we expect, the July rate hike may very well have been the last of the cycle. That’s going to be a big positive for investors as we head into the fall and winter.
*****
> # Bulls and Bears Beat the Average for Ten
> The S&P 500's selloff over the last week heading into today's CPI print caused bullish sentiment to dip a little. Compared to last week when 49% of respondents to the weekly AAII survey reported as bullish, this week only 44.7% reported as such. That is the weakest reading on optimism in a month, but remains well above the range of readings of most of the past year and a half.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-1.png))**
> The drop in bullishness was met with an increase in bearishness. Bearish sentiment rose back above 25% for the first time since the week of July 14th.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-2.png))**
> In turn, the bull-bear spread moved lower this week, crossing back below 20 to 19.2. That is the lowest reading in four weeks as the spread continues to point toward an overall bullish tilt to investor sentiment.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-3.png))**
> In fact, this week marked the tenth in a row that bullish sentiment sat above its historical average while simultaneously bearish sentiment was below its historical average. Looking across the past twenty years, there are not many examples of this sort of extended bullish sentiment streaks. In fact, only three other periods saw streaks of similar length. The most recent ended in May 2021 at 13 weeks. Before that, there was an identically long streak in the first quarter of 2012 and prior to that, you'd have to go all the way back to 2004 to find an example. In the 1990s through late 2000, such streaks were much more common.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-5.png))**
*****
> # Claims Seasonal Tailwinds Waver
> Initial Jobless Claims have been back on the rise for the last two weeks with this week's reading coming in at 248k versus estimates for 230k. That is the most elevated reading since the first week of July and marks the largest week-over-week rise since the first week of June.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-1.png))**
> Before seasonal adjustment, claims totaled 225.6K, up roughly 20K from the previous week. At those levels, claims are above those of the comparable week of last year and multiple pre-pandemic years. The past couple of weeks have seen particularly pronounced seasonal tailwinds which have historically ebbed this week and will again likely happen next week. However, those tailwinds are set to continue later this month into September when claims have typically reached an annual low point.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-2.png))**
> Lagged one week to initial claims, continuing claims came in lower than expected, dropping to 1.684 million from 1.7 million. That is slightly above the low from two weeks ago but does not yet disrupt the trend downward in continuing claims.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-3.png))**
> As for a state level breakdown of claims, in the heatmap below we show where continuing claims are most and least elevated as a share of the each state's respective labor force. As shown, the West Coast and Northeast are the two weakest regions of the country with the highest percentage of continuing claims. Some states in the Southwest like Texas and New Mexico and the Midwest like Illinois and Minnesota also have pockets of weakness. Given various states have different unemployment insurance program eligibility requirements, benefit amounts, and program lengths, that is not necessarily to say these are the areas with the highest unemployment rates, but rather these are the places contributing the most to national claims counts.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-4.png))**
*****
> # Small Businesses Less Concerned With Inflation
> In an earlier post, we noted the improvement to small business sentiment per the latest data from the NFIB. The report also includes survey responses as to what small businesses perceive to be their biggest problems. The July report showed that small businesses have begun to take notice of easing inflation. As shown below, throughout 2022 and into portions of 2023, inflation has ranked as the number one problem among small businesses. But in July, Quality of Labor retook the number one spot as it had temporarily back in May. Meanwhile, there has been a rise businesses saying that government requirements and red tape are their number one problem, tying cost of labor for the fourth most pressing issue.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-1b.png))**
> Obviously, as it still occupies the number two spot, inflation remains a major problem. Even though it is a big improvement from 37% exactly one year ago, there continues to be 21% of firms that report inflation as their biggest problem. That is also well above any reading observed pre-pandemic.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-2.png))**
> On a combined basis, cost and quality of labor are the most commonly reported problem for small businesses at 33% of responses. Unlike inflation which is hitting new lows, that is in the middle of the past few years' range.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-5.png))**
> Historically, the NFIB survey has had sensitivities to politics with a bias towards being more optimistic during Republican administrations and vice versa. Since the Biden Presidency began, government related problems have been on the backburner given that inflation has been playing a more pressing role. However, there has been a steadily rising number of responses once again reporting government red tape or taxes as their biggest issues. That has come hand in hand with an increase in the survey's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index which experienced a pronounced 4 point jump month over month in July.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-1.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-3.png))**
> Finally, we would note very few firms are reporting sales as their biggest problem. That is a significant disconnect from the index on actual sales changes which hit new lows in July.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-4.png))**
*****
> # Small Business Sentiment Bounces Back
> Small business sentiment from the NFIB's monthly survey rebounded in July with the headline index reading 91.9 versus expectations of it rising only 0.3 points to 91.3. As shown below, small businesses are still reporting much weaker optimism than pre-pandemic or even in the first year of the pandemic, but sentiment has been making steady improvements in recent months.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-1.png))**
> In the table below, we break down each category of the NFIB's survey. Again, the headline index remains historically low in the 14th percentile of readings. However, that is up from the 9th percentile last month. Most other categories that contribute to the optimism index also rose month over month, albeit there were multiple that went unchanged. As a result of those moves, most categories remain at the low end of their historical ranges with a couple of exceptions: Plans to Increase Employment and Job Openings Hard to Fill. Each of those readings are in the 76th and 94th percentiles, respectively. However, as we noted in today's Morning Lineup, overall this survey's employment metrics have pointed to softening of labor market activity.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-1a.png))**
> While several categories saw stronger readings in July, none rose more than Outlook for General Business conditions which jumped by 10 points month over month. That is the second 10 point increase in a row which makes for the largest two month increase since May 2020. Although that reading showed an increase in optimism which coincides with continued improvement in the number of firms reporting that inflation pressures have eased, readings on small businesses actual operations were less rosy. Even though sales expectations were up, actual sales changes hit a new low of -13, the weakest since the spring of 2020, resulting in earnings changes to also drop.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-2.png))**
*****
> # Long End Historically Oversold
> Treasury yields at the long end of the curve are once again rising today with the yield on the 30 year up 3.3 bps as of this writing. That is in the context of what has already been a dramatic move higher in yields of long term Treasuries. As we discussed in Friday's Bespoke report, the ETF tracking longer-dated Treasuries, the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury ETF (TLT), fell 1% or more three days in a row last week (prices fall when yields rise). Meanwhile, that move higher in long end yields has also been observed in other places of the world like Germany, as discussed in today's Morning Lineup.
> Given the steep rise in yields and hence a drop in the price of TLT, the ETF is trading at extremely oversold levels. While it has come back slightly and is currently 2.66 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, at the most oversold reading last Thursday, TLT traded 3.84 standard deviations below its 50-DMA. In its over 20 years of history, that is the most oversold reading on record.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080723-TLT-1.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080723-TLT-2.png))**
> As shown above there have only been a handful of other periods in which TLT has fallen at least three standard deviations below its 50-DMA as it did last week. In most circumstances, when an asset reaches such extreme levels of oversold, the thinking is that some upside mean reversion can be expected. However, the exact opposite has played out for TLT historically. As shown below, across the prior seven instances in which TLT got 3+ standard deviations below its 50-DMA, the ETF was lower a year later four times.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080723-TLT-3a.png))**
*****
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
*****
> (**T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.**)
*****
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/TOK8mjS.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!]())**
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/cOzqXUb.png))**
*****
# DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
*****
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and an awesome trading week ahead r/stocks. :) | 1,691,796,452 | 2023-08-11 23:27:32 | bigbear0083 | 22 | 0 | 0.81 | null | /r/stocks/comments/15oob56/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15oob56/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ | stocks | 3m |
15nckuy | Sony Q1 revenue up 33% YoY to ~$20.7B, PS5 sales up 38% YoY to 3.3M, raises sales forecasts for the full year + more good news for Sony | Here’s how Sony did in the June quarter versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:
* **Revenue:** 3 trillion Japanese yen ($20.7 billion) versus 2.46 trillion yen expected. That represents a 33% year-on-year rise.
* **Operating profit:** 253 billion Japanese yen versus 251.24 billion yen expected. That marks a 31% year-on-year fall.
Sony raised its **revenue forecast for the full year by 6% to 12.2 trillion yen**, thanks to strength in its PlayStation gaming unit.
Sony made a **7% upward revision to its sales forecast for games and network services to 4.2 trillion yen**.
Sony is so far winning the latest round of the console wars — by a substantial margin.
**Sony PlayStation FY23 Q1 Earnings**
* Net Sales: $4.91B +28% YoY Operating Income: $313.3m -7% YoY
* Shipped 3.3m PS5 (+0.9m YoY); 41.7m LTD
* Shipped 56.5m software, of which 6.6m 1P (+8.4m YoY, 1P sales flat)
**Xbox Q4**
* Xbox hardware -13%
* Content/services +5%
* Total gaming revenue +1%
**PlayStation Q1**
* PS hardware +35%
* Network Services +17%
* Total gaming revenue +33%
In other news, **Crunchyroll passed 12 million paying subscribers**
* Feb 2017: 1 million subs
* Oct 2018: 2 million subs
* July 2020: 3 million subs
* Feb 2021: 4 million subs
* Aug 2021: 5 million subs
* Feb 2023: 10 million subs
* May 2023: 11 million subs
* July 2023: 12 million subs
NCLT greenlights **Zee-Sony merger, paves way for $10 bn media giant creation** \- The order by NCLT's Mumbai bench will pave the way for the creation of the biggest in the country. | 1,691,674,155 | 2023-08-10 13:29:15 | msaleem | 50 | 9 | 0.9 | null | /r/stocks/comments/15nckuy/sony_q1_revenue_up_33_yoy_to_207b_ps5_sales_up_38/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15nckuy/sony_q1_revenue_up_33_yoy_to_207b_ps5_sales_up_38/ | stocks | 3m |
15ezvef | The 2023 stock market rally got a lot healthier in June and July | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-2023-stock-market-rally-got-a-lot-healthier-in-june-and-july-210139678.html\n\nJuly has come and gone for investors, bringing with it a continuation and a new twist on the blistering stock market gains seen in the first half of this year.\n\nThe Tech sector (XLK), along with some of last year's biggest losers like Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), powered the market's rally through May.\n\nJuly has come and gone for investors, bringing with it a continuation and a new twist on the blistering stock market gains seen in the first half of this year.\n\nThe Tech sector (XLK), along with some of last year's biggest losers like Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), powered the market's rally through May.\n[Money doesn't grow on trees]\n\nBut over the last two months, one of the biggest concerns among market bears — that the rally had become too concentrated — has been addressed with all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) logging gains between June and July.\n\nAnd while the aforementioned stars of this year's rally are still playing a leading role, a surge in oil prices has brought Energy (XLE) into the fold with cyclical sectors like Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) also sitting on gains north of 14% since June as optimism about the economy abounds.\n\nThis has left all sectors with the exception of Health Care (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) sitting on year-to-date gains through July.\n\nCombine this broad strength with the bullish year-to-date seasonality stats we've been compiling and the final five months of the year have some powerful tailwinds. Notably, however, Tuesday brings us into August, which has been the weakest month of the year over the last 25 years.\n\n[**Broadening of the market.**](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Cj8RJI9cSQHXtbHDpHlEqQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNQ--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2023-07/134ad610-2fe2-11ee-bf6f-1ffefac75b64)\n\nIn the table above, we can see that the three leading sectors until May were those that house the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, as well as the growthier names that tend to be less cyclical.\n\nThe Tech sector is home to much of the artificial intelligence trade, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA). Apple (AAPL), which is up some 50% so far this year, is also a member of the Tech sector.\n\nAlphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), along with Meta Technologies (META), is a member of the Communication Services sector.\n\nAnd even with the rally broadening in recent months, we can see Tech is still doing a lot of the heavy lifting. It may not be a surprise, then, to learn that both Apple and Meta have been positive each month this year. (For Meta, the streak of monthly wins extends all the way back to November 2022.)\n\nThrough May, Amazon (AMZN) and other e-commerce plays were primarily responsible for boosting gains in the Consumer Discretionary sector.\n\nIn the two months since, brick and mortar stalwarts like Kohl's (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) have joined the rally, with each up over 50% since the end of May.\n\nCyclical names — whose fortunes vary more alongside the state of the economy — dominate the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI).\n\nAnd inside the index we can also see the game of catch-up taking place.\n\nThe latest returns from June to July are reflected on the x-axis in the chart below, while prior gains through May are expressed vertically on the y-axis.\n\nIndustrial giant Caterpillar (CAT) is alone at the right edge of the chart — up 29% the last two months after sinking 14% earlier this year. Caterpillar will report earnings on Tuesday.\n\n3M (MMM) and Boeing (BA) are also among top recent returns, while rounding out the top five are banking giant JPMorgan (JPM) and retail leader Home Depot (HD).\n\nAlso noteworthy are the few laggards that haven't mustered much the entire year and are camping out in the lower left of the chart.\n\nConsumer Staples (XLP) company Walgreens (WBA) happens to be dead last on the year-to-date list, down 20%. Telecom company Verizon (VZ) and pharmaceutical giant Merck (MRK) are also toward the bottom." | 1,690,857,488 | 2023-08-01 02:38:08 | putsRnotDaWae | 31 | 5 | 0.78 | Broad market news | /r/stocks/comments/15ezvef/the_2023_stock_market_rally_got_a_lot_healthier/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15ezvef/the_2023_stock_market_rally_got_a_lot_healthier/ | stocks | 3m |
159gla5 | Summary of earnings from Jul 25 morning | * ↔️ **Verizon (VZ)** beat expectations on strong subscriber growth, stock is flat +0.47%
* 🔻 **General Motors (GM)** revenue and earnings soar, but unveils cost cutting measures, stock is down -4%
* ⬆️ **3M (MMM)** beat earnings expectations, raises profit outlook / forecast, stock up +5%
* ⬆️ **General Eletric (GE)** crushes earnings and raises outlook, stock up +6%
* 🔻 **Spotify (SPOT)** has revenue miss and weak guidance despite price hike, stock down -14%
* 🔻**Alaska Airlines (ALK)** posts record quarterly revenue but weak revenue forecast, stock down -10% pulling other airline stocks down with it.
I have no positions in any of the above individual stocks. | 1,690,309,543 | 2023-07-25 18:25:43 | FaatmanSlim | 214 | 16 | 0.97 | Broad market news | /r/stocks/comments/159gla5/summary_of_earnings_from_jul_25_morning/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/159gla5/summary_of_earnings_from_jul_25_morning/ | stocks | 3m |
14zskrk | Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 17th, 2023 | Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning July 17th, 2023.
# **Dow closes 100 points higher Friday on solid earnings, registers best week since March: Live updates - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)**
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> The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed Friday as strong earnings results from some of the biggest banks and companies kicked off earnings season.
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> The 30-stock Dow added 113.89 points, or 0.33%, to close at 34,509.03 and mark its fifth consecutive day of gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 0.10% to close at 4,505.42. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.18%, ending at 14,113.70. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched their highest intraday levels since April 2022.
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> On a weekly basis, the Dow notched its best performance since March, up 2.3%. The S&P 500 added 2.4%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.3%.
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> UnitedHealth shares lifted the blue-chip index Friday as its top performer. The insurance giant jumped more than 7% after it reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings and revenue. The company also raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance. UnitedHealth was also the biggest gainer in the S&P 500′s health-care sector, which advanced 1.5%.
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> JPMorgan Chase rose 0.6% after its second-quarter earnings topped expectations. The bank was boosted by higher interest rates and rising interest income. Wells Fargo inched down 0.3%, even though the bank posted better-than-expected results.
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> “What we’ve seen out of big bank earnings, especially JPMorgan, is pretty resilient,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments.
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> “We’re seeing right now [that] default rates are still historically incredibly low and not showing signs of skyrocketing higher. So that’s a good sign for consumers and the economy,” Ladner added.
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> Expectations for this season are downbeat, with analysts forecasting a roughly 7% year-over-year drop in S&P 500 earnings, according to FactSet. That would mark the worst earnings season since the second quarter of 2020, when S&P 500 profits dropped 31.6%.
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> Investors’ sentiment has been lifted by soft inflation reports this week. The latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated and built on trader optimism from the June consumer price index data, which came out Wednesday. Investors are now considering whether a strong economy illustrated by the recent data could push stocks higher by the end of the year.
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> “The Goldilocks scenario is alive and well, in terms of declining inflation pressures and [there’s] still fairly robust economic growth. So it’s a pretty good backdrop for risk assets,” said Ladner.
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# **This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/SnVyBia.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/8wwgPm7.png))**
# **Major Indices for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/zlKkM6r.png))**
# **Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/whAgQks.png))**
# **Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/HGfojKF.png))**
# **Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/3SFz5nZ.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for the Past Week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/hzQE2Fl.png))**
# **Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/zNBN2v5.png))**
# **Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/HVJYMrk.png))**
# **Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KDO56Qe.png))**
# **Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/cHQZN54.png))**
# **Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/96ajmzB.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/jr3IoGr.png))**
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> # NASDAQ Down 5 Straight During July Monthly Options Expiration Week
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/0e35ad96acb434fc8ff47cfbe253ba09/4a5924a75bd97043-2b/s500x750/f43f7c12a146f12f283341caf2e57d15204eef2f.jpg))**
> Since 1982, the Friday of monthly options expiration week has a bearish bias for DJIA declining 23 times in 41 years with two unchanged years, 1991 and 1995. On Friday the average loss is 0.23% for DJIA and 0.25% for S&P 500. NASDAQ’s record is even weaker, down 25 of 41 years with an average loss of 0.38%. DJIA posts the best full-week performance, up 24 of 41 with an average 0.37% gain. However, NASDAQ has been weakest, down 22 times and the last five straight. The week after monthly options expiration leans bearish for NASDAQ over the longer-term with an average loss. In recent years the track record had been improving until 2015’s across the board, greater than 2% loss.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/58446a6c0eff3bfccb318adcf7147f43/4a5924a75bd97043-b1/s500x750/4a9c4beb42c23893f574aa73b0c155bb941438d6.jpg))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/cb48f0bdcb96429703fed837638da305/4a5924a75bd97043-fd/s500x750/94f18d8f1557859ffaf50c57279d07b0f545a5df.jpg))**
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> # The Path to Lower Inflation is Now Clear
> The June CPI report was a positive surprise, both in terms of the headline numbers as well as the underlying details.
> Headline inflation rose 0.2% in June, which translates to a 2.2% annual pace. Over the past three months, inflation’s averaged about 2.7%, and over the last year it’s up 3.0%. That’s well off the peak pace of over 9% exactly a year ago.
> In my opinion, the reason for the decline is obvious when you look at the chart below. Energy prices drove the inflation surge in 2022, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Energy prices have now declined 17% over the past year, pulling inflation lower. The good news is that food inflation is also easing a lot, rising at an annual pace of just 1.3% over the past 3 months. Remember the surge in egg prices? Well, egg prices have fallen 21% over the past 3 months.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-headline-CPI-breakdown-698x800.png))**
> All this of course has been occurring for a few months now and shouldn’t be a big surprise.
> The problem until now was that “core inflation,” i.e., inflation once you strip out energy and food prices, remained elevated. But we got good news on that front.
> Core inflation rose just 0.16% in June, which translates to a 1.9% annual pace — the slowest monthly pace since August 2021! That’s great, but as you can see below, the 3-month pace remains above 4%. So, we’ve yet to see a consistent deceleration in core inflation, which is what the Federal Reserve is looking for.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-headline-and-core-CPI-3M-607x800.png))**
> **Positive signs**
> We realize that one month does not make a trend, but a lot of the underlying details point to downward momentum. Let’s look at a few of these.
> Used and new vehicle prices, which make up 9% of the core inflation “basket,” have reversed a lot over the past year. However, used car prices rose in April and May, reversing some of that momentum. But things look to have turned around once again, with used car prices falling 0.5% in June. In fact, prices are likely to fall further over the next few months based on private used car auction data (Ryan pointed this out in his previous blog as well).
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-used-car-prices-597x800.png))**
> Moreover, the auto production supply chain bottlenecks are being resolved, and therefore we’re seeing vehicle production increase. As a result, prices for new vehicles have fallen about 0.4% over the past three months, and that downtrend is likely to continue given increased supply.
> The big one is housing inflation, which Ryan and I have been talking a lot about over the past year. Housing makes up 40% of core inflation, but importantly, it does not include home prices. Instead, it’s based on rents. The problem is that there is a significant lag between official rental inflation and private rents data. Private data from Apartment List shows that rents have decelerated from a peak of 18% year-over-year pace to zero as of June! Official data lags this data by about 12 months or so and it’s taken a while to reflect market reality.
> The good news is that official rental inflation appears to be turning lower. Rental inflation was averaging a 9% annual pace between June 2022 and February 2023. However, that’s fallen to about 6% over the past 4 months. That’s still higher than the 2018-2019 average of about 3-3.5%. But given what we’re seeing in market rents, we expect housing inflation to continue decelerating and that’s going to pull core inflation down in a big way later this year and into 2024 as well.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-rents-598x800.png))**
> **What about the rest?**
> Fed Chair Powell has cited “core services ex housing” as still being elevated. We believe it’s their way of saying,
> “Yes, we see vehicle prices heading lower, and acknowledge the lags in housing inflation data; but we want to see the rest of it fall”
> But there’s good news on that front too.
> The Atlanta Federal Reserve calculates something called the “Sticky Price CPI excluding food, energy, and shelter.” Simply put, it measures inflation for items whose prices typically don’t change frequently.
> In June, this sticky price measure was flat. Over the past 3 months it’s running at a 1.4% annual pace, well below the peak of 7.3% we saw 15 months ago. A key piece of this is restaurant food prices, which have slowed down a lot recently on the back of falling food prices. But even things like airfares, daycare and pet care services inflation have been falling.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-sticky-price-CPI-638x800.png))**
> You can see why the June inflation report was positive from so many angles. A low reading is positive by itself, but it also confirmed what we know from other sources about what to expect going forward.
> Perhaps the best news is that inflation is falling, and poised to fall even further, without a rise in unemployment and an economic slowdown. A year ago, Federal Reserve officials and many economists were saying that we probably need to go into a recession for inflation to slow down, and that aggressive rate hikes by the Fed would push us into one.
> Instead, the unemployment rate is at 3.6%, close to 50-year lows. If real GDP growth clocks in around 2% for last quarter (as seems likely), that would mean the economy’s grown at a 2.5% pace over the past year. While inflation’s fallen from 9% to 3%. That’s huge!
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> # NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally Ends on Friday
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/098d81db4edec466f1ab4940532e7935/ba32bd5bc8ad9f7b-b2/s540x810/367ce2de99632e9aec0e376b195125b5c3cd5e2d.jpg))**
> From its close on June 27 (the fourth from last trading day) through today, NASDAQ has gained 2.7% which makes this year’s NASDAQ midyear rally slightly better than average. Today’s gains were largely fueled by better than anticipated CPI reading. Provided this translates into a better-than-expected PPI report tomorrow, additional gains are likely before NASDAQ’s midyear rally officially ends on Friday, July 14. The end of the rally also coincides with the historical seasonal mid-month July market peak in pre-election years. Since 1950, the second half of July has been weaker than the first half.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/619be3287d870f3ac7b6b4991b4e7073/ba32bd5bc8ad9f7b-39/s500x750/f8425b8e777ffd6c5d00551f442b733881c28980.jpg))**
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> # Inflation Expectations Still on the Decline
> Ahead of Wednesday's CPI, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCES) was released earlier this week and showed a continuation of the trend where consumer inflation expectations have been falling. Over the next 12 months, the Fed's survey showed that the median expected rate of inflation fell from 4.07% down to 3.83%. While still above its historical average of 3.4%, consumer expectations for inflation over the next year are down to the lowest level since April 2021. Over a longer time horizon, inflation expectations haven't fallen nearly as fast, but they didn't rise anywhere near as much as short-term expectations either. In the June survey, the median expected rate of inflation over the next three years fell from 2.98% down to 2.95%. While that reading barely budged, we would note that current expectations for inflation over the next three years are slightly below the long-term average. Unlike the FOMC, which ditched the term transitory 18 months ago, consumers have remained on team transitory.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/071123-NY-Fed-Inflation-Exp.png))**
> One issue which has the potential to push inflation higher is how consumers expect their incomes to change over time. In this month's survey, the median expected rate of earnings growth increased from 2.80% up to 2.98% which is right around the high end of its range from the last two years. As shown in the chart below, while this series has tested the 3% level multiple times, it hasn't been able to bust through it. As it pertains to inflation, that's a good thing, because if consumers expect their incomes to increase, they're probably also less likely to push back on higher prices. At the same time, the fact that this reading has settled into a new higher range relative to its long-term average suggests that getting back down to and staying at levels of inflation that prevailed before COVID may prove to be difficult.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/071123-NY-Fed-Earnings-Growth.png))**
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> # Small-caps Catch a Bid
> Small-caps have caught a bid over the last few days with the Russell 2,000 ETF (IWM) rallying more than 3% since last Thursday's close. Over the same time frame, the large-cap S&P 500 is up just 0.3%.
> While large-cap indices have recently traded to 52-week highs, small-caps are still well below 2023 highs made back in Q1. As shown below, though, IWM is currently attempting to break above the top end of the sideways range it has been in over the last month. If it can do that, the highs from earlier in the year will come into sight.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/smalluse.png))**
> The Russell 2,000 (IWM) chart looks pretty interesting over a multi-year time frame. As shown below, the pre-COVID high made in early 2020 has acted as strong support over the past year. While IWM fell sharply during the mini-banking crisis this March, it stopped going down once it reached this key support level, and then it traded sideways and consolidated throughout much of April and May. Going forward, it appears that the Russell has built a strong base over the past year to springboard off of if the bull market for US equities can continue.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/rtyiwm.png))**
> A chart that always captures our attention is the one below that shows Apple's (AAPL) market cap versus the combined market cap of all of the stocks in the small-cap Russell 2,000. Prior to COVID, Apple's market cap wasn't even close to the $2+ trillion market cap of the Russell 2,000. Since late 2021, though, the two have been battling it out. After its huge gain in Q2, Apple is currently in the lead at $2.96 trillion, but the Russell isn't too far behind at $2.81 trillion.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/aaplrty.png))**
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> # Here We Go Again
> “Here I go again on my own. Going down the only road I’ve ever known.”
> -Here I Go Again by Whitesnake
> One of the main reasons we came into 2023 overweight equities (when everyone else was talking recessions and bear markets) was the over-the-top negativity. Rarely is the crowd and obvious trade right when it comes to investing and we assumed should we get any good news, stocks could surprise to the upside. One of the most staggering signs of negativity was the median strategist in this Bloomberg survey was looking for negative stock returns in ’23.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-1.jpg))**
> As we noted in Is Anyone Bullish? (from December 11, 2022), we’d never seen strategists this bearish heading into a new year. Then layer on the fact that stocks were down close to 20% in 2022 and the odds greatly favored a big bounce back year, as stocks were rarely down two years a in a row. Not to mention, the macro backdrop was on much better footing than the M2 is crashing, LEI is down, and yield curve fearmongers were telling us.
> All that happened was that the first six months of this year was the second best start to a year since 2000 for the S&P 500, best start for the NASDAQ in 40 years and the best start ever for the NASDAQ-100.
> Where are we now? Well, similar to the great Whitesnake song in the quote above, here I go again, down the only road I’ve ever known.
> Apparently, the only road these strategists know is doubling down on lower prices, as they expect the most bearish second half EVER. We’ll gladly take the other side to this, as we expect stocks to gain nicely the rest of this year, likely to new all-time highs.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-2.jpg))**
> Take note the other years they expected lower prices during the final six months of the year were 1999, 2019, 2020, and 2021. All the S&P 500 did those years was gain 7.0%, 9.8%, 21.2%, and 10.9%, respectively, over the final six months. That comes out to a very impressive 12.2% average, not bad, not bad.
> What also has my attention? We have some big inflation data out this week, but we’ve already seen some nice signs that inflation could surprise to the downside. First up, used cars accounted for nearly a third of the jump in inflation the past few years, but it is crashing lower, with used car prices experiencing their largest monthly drop since COVID. Given light auto production is running close to pre-COVID levels, this is another sign supply chains are working again and price pressures are abating.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-3_edit-800x450.png))**
> Speaking of supply chains, the New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index did jump last month, but it was coming off of the lowest level in history. Bottom line, supply chains are back to normal after years of disruptions.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-4-800x309.png))**
> Along with supply chains and used car prices improving, we expect to see shelter take a big dive the second half of this year. Remember, shelter makes up more than 40% of CPI and it has stayed stubbornly high lately. Well, we’ve seen drastic improvements from private data places like Apartment List and Zillow, suggesting that the government’s data will likely follow suit soon.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-5-598x800.png))**
> Lastly, we’ve been hearing a lot that the trillions of dollars in excess savings that consumers had over COVID was nearly all the way gone. The media are spinning this as a bearish event, as it means consumers aren’t saving anymore and they will run out of money to spend and keep the economy growing. Here’s the issue with that, the savings rate has been trending higher the past year and is more than two percent higher than it was in early 2022. The employment backdrop is still healthy, spending is solid and consumer confidence is improving. To us, all of that is positive.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-6-800x293.png))**
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Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
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> (**T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.**)
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> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KDO56Qe.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!]())**
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())**
(N/A.)
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# DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and an awesome trading week ahead r/stocks. :) | 1,689,369,719 | 2023-07-14 21:21:59 | bigbear0083 | 12 | 0 | 0.94 | null | /r/stocks/comments/14zskrk/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/14zskrk/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ | stocks | 3m |
14woihu | (7/11) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News | #Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, July the 11th, 2023-
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# [Stock futures are little changed as traders look ahead to key inflation data: Live updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)
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> U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday, after the major averages snapped a three-day decline, as traders await key inflation data slated for release later in the week.
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> S&P 500 futures dipped slightly, while Nasdaq-100 futures nudged higher by just 0.05%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 57 points, or 0.2%.
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> Investors are coming off a positive session for the major averages. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 209.52 points, or 0.62%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.24%. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, rising just 0.18%.
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> The June consumer price index report set for release Wednesday, as well as the June producer price index due out Thursday, will shed light on whether the decline in inflation has continued, and create the backdrop for future direction of interest rates.
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> Investors have penciled in another quarter-point increase at the Federal Reserve’s July 25-26 meeting. But they are undecided about what the central bank will do at its September meeting after last week’s continued robust jobs data raised concern that policymakers will revert to raising rates following the June pause.
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> “The pause, agree or disagree, is to gather more information,” Solus Alternative Asset Management’s Dan Greenhaus said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” He added, “One more hike or two more hikes is much less important than when, ultimately, they begin to cut rates on the other side of this. That’s much more consequential for, I think, the risk landscape than one more hike or two more hikes.”
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> On the economic front, June’s NFIB Small Business Index, a measure of business confidence, is set for release Tuesday before the bell. Economists polled by Dow Jones are anticipating a reading of 90.0, slightly higher than the 89.4 level in May.
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> Second-quarter earnings season kicks off later this week with results from “systemically important financial institutions” such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, plus BlackRock, PepsiCo and Delta Air. Dow component UnitedHealth reports Friday.
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#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
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#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/srvCuUg.png)**)
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#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all)**)
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#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/uCHMuDV.png)**)
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#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
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#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/7l2O9ef.png)**)
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#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/OWX8zmj.png)**)
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#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/6he4UyZ.png)**)
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#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/aGyM3dS.png)**)
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#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/FXY9Exw.png)**)
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#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/R0tPh0c.png)**)
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#THIS AFTERNOON'S AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]()**)
(NONE.)
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#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!]()**)
(NONE.)
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#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/GologVf.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/YQM4lLb.png)**)
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#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/mqx4hM8.png)**)
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#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/atsKWzS.png)**)
(N/A.)
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#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/stocks-making-the-biggest-premarket-moves-.html)**)
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> **JetBlue Airways** — JetBlue Airways lost nearly 2% after Evercore ISI downgraded the airline to underweight, citing the recent sharp rally in shares and balance sheet concerns.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JBLU
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JBLU&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JBLU)**)
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> **Zillow Group** — The stock popped 4.7% after being upgraded by Piper Sandler to overweight from neutral. Analyst Thomas Champion also hiked his price target to $62 per share, suggesting 33% upside from Monday’s close. Product optionality and new initiatives, as well sequential improvements in the housing macro environment were among the reasons for his call.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** ZG
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ZG&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ZG)**)
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> **JPMorgan Chase** — The Wall Street heavyweight added 1.2% in premarket trading after an upgrade from Jefferies to buy from hold on Tuesday. The firm also labeled JPMorgan Chase as “best-in-class.”
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JPM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JPM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JPM)**)
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> **U.S. Bancorp** — Shares of the Minnesota-based bank gained 2.2% following an upgrade to buy from neutral by Bank of America. Analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said U.S. Bancorp is among the highest quality franchises in the U.S. banking industry, with its scale, earnings and strong execution expected to drive superior earnings growth and stock outperformance.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** USB
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=USB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/USB)**)
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> **Amazon** — Shares ticked 0.8% higher as the e-commerce giant kicked off its highly anticipated Prime Day summer sale, which goes through Wednesday. Wells Fargo also added Amazon to its Signature Picks list, citing better expectations for Amazon Web Services, Prime Day revenue growth and a risk-reward that is still favorable.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** AMZN
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AMZN)**)
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> **WD-40** — Shares jumped more than 5% after the lubricant and rust-remover maker reported fiscal third-quarter results postmarket Monday. WD-40 posted $141.7 million in total net sales, a 15% increase from the prior year.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** WDFC
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WDFC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/WDFC)**)
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> **3M** — Shares rose nearly 2% in premarket trading following an upgrade to neutral from underperform by Bank of America. The bank said 3M has positive catalysts ahead related to litigation settlements, restructuring and the planned spin-off for the health care business.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
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> **Zions Bancorp, Truist** — The bank stocks were under pressure Tuesday morning after Jefferies downgraded both Zions and Truist to hold from buy, lowering its earnings estimates for the two companies. Shares of Zions fell 1.5% in premarket trading, while Truist’s were down 1%.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** ZION
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ZION&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ZION)**)
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> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** TFC
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TFC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TFC)**)
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> **Iovance Biotherapeutics** — Iovance Biotherapeutics fell more than 11%. The biotech company on Monday said the pricing of its underwritten public offering, of 20 million shares of common stock, would be at $7.50 per share. The gross proceeds from the offering are set to be about $150 million.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** IOVA
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=IOVA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/IOVA)**)
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#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
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#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
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# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, July 11th, 2023! :)** | 1,689,074,444 | 2023-07-11 11:20:44 | bigbear0083 | 7 | 0 | 0.88 | null | /r/stocks/comments/14woihu/711_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/14woihu/711_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ | stocks | 3m |
14ujbvm | CIM-B: Higher for Longer | As the market continues to price in higher interest rates for longer, there is opportunity in owning floating rate securities. CIM-B is a preferred stock issued by Chimera Investment Corporation with a fixed rate coupon of 8.0%. CIM-B trades at a 15% discount to par leading to a current rate of 9.4%.
On 3/30/24, 9 months from now, CIM-B switches to a floating rate security of 5.79% + 3m SOFR + 0.26%. The 3m SOFR is the replacement for LIBOR and is currently at 5.26%. That puts the floating rate coupon at 11.3%. At the current price of $21.34, the yield would be 13.2%.
My investment thesis is that CIM-B moves to its par value of $25 over the next 9 months. I think there will be $1.50 in dividends and $3.66 in capital gains in those 9 months resulting in a 24% total return. I think $25 is a fair price because that puts the yield at 130 bps higher than the fixed rate CIM-A, more than enough additional yield to compensate for the potential for rate decreases. However, $25 is roughly the maximum share price as CIM can redeem the shares at $25 at anytime after 3/30/24. I wouldn’t be surprised if CIM does redeem the shares, a win for investors.
CIM-B is far from risk free, but I think the potential for a quick 9 month profit is worth the risk. CIM owns residential mortgages. Not the type guaranteed by Freddie or Fannie. If you remember the Big Short’s quote of dog shit wrapped in cat shit. CIM owns the dog shit. It’s not as bad as 2007. The mortgages have low loan to value (LTV) as mortgage standards are tighter and the housing market has had considerable appreciation since the mortgages were written. The job market for subprime mortgage customers is strong. CIM has minimal leverage allowing it to handle delinquencies.
It’s not a risk free 24% 9 month return, but I’m comfortable with it.
Here’s the CIM [investor presentation](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a0f938f160fc1c8a4f78fe77ecb8044f/chimerareit/db/862/7941/pdf/Investor+Presentation+June+2023_Final+%281%29.pdf)
I encourage you to look up the details of CIM-B at QuantumOnline.com. Benefits of CIM-B include cumulative dividends (if CIM can’t pay preferred dividends, they accrue and must be fully paid before their common stock can pay a dividend.). CIM is an mREIT that must pay out 90% of profits to maintain its tax status, meaning the preferred stock dividends must be paid. Not a tax advisor, but every mREIT dividend I’ve seen qualifies as a 199A tax break effectively leading to dividends taxed at only 80% of your marginal tax rate.
If you want more ideas like CIM-B, here’s my previous posts.
[RITM-D](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/xnoxsu/ritmd_high_yield_preferred_shares/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)
[ASB-E](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13j0e5j/regional_bank_preferred_stock/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)
[High Yield Corporate Bonds](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/14207bq/high_yield_corporate_bonds/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1) | 1,688,860,357 | 2023-07-08 23:52:37 | Rule_Of_72T | 10 | 0 | 0.78 | Company Analysis | /r/stocks/comments/14ujbvm/cimb_higher_for_longer/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/14ujbvm/cimb_higher_for_longer/ | stocks | 3m |
13sbdgz | Sell at&t and 3M? | Hello everyone.
I bought into T and 3M around the begging of COVID and stupidly didn't sell even with the looming problems of both companies.
My problem is I want to downsize my portfolio and inject that cash into vusa or split it between my other holdings.
Does anyone actually have any faith left in these companies or is it time to let go? I've tried to average down as much as I can but I don't see much light at the end of the tunnel for them. | 1,685,102,764 | 2023-05-26 12:06:04 | AlexRazyy | 38 | 52 | 0.88 | null | /r/stocks/comments/13sbdgz/sell_att_and_3m/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13sbdgz/sell_att_and_3m/ | stocks | 3m |
13kvyir | Disney (DIS) DCF UPDATED. | # Introduction:
I did a DCF during Bob Chapek's reign and now during Bob Iger's reign, I think DIS is a lemon not because of how badly the company is ran but rather the industry that DIS is in. In this new DCF, I gave my opinion on certain arms of the business and even made assumptions that DIS will pivot fast enough into greener pastures. But even that didn't save the value of this company. Not to mention, this company utterly sucks at reporting their financials so a fair bit of simplifying assumptions had to be made. I've linked my old DCF if you'd like to read it but I'll tear apart why my old DCF was wrong in the end. Old DCF: ([SOURCE](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zvn7if/disneydis_dcf_analysis_need_advice_and_criticisms/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3))
# REVENUE:
DMED (%REV)
The emphasis on DMED will eventually fade away, linear network seems to be phasing out in popularity as it’s mainly being held up by Gen X and Baby Boomers ([SOURCE](https://morningconsult.com/2023/03/28/linear-tv-viewership-gen-z-millennials/)), The average life expectancy is 72 years ([SOURCE](http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators)). So DIS will pivot away from Linear Network, as evident by management's heavy emphasis on DIS+ especially during conference calls. “About 50% of this demographic is expected to cut the cord by 2025” ([SOURCE](https://www.brid.tv/what-is-linear-tv/)). So I’m assuming it has a half life of about 3 years. But, given Linear Network contributes 25% of Revenue in FY22 it may not drop to a very large extent so I’m assuming it plateaus at about 23%.
DMED (Y/Y)
Given how volatile to changes DMED is for the duration of my forecast, I used a historic number when forecasting DMED. Believing that 2022’s Linear TV trend will continue.
DPEP (%REV)
DPEP will plateau at a level slightly below pre disney+ levels of 2017 and 2018, as Disney+ begins taking up larger portions of the revenue.
DPEP (Y/Y)
The largest 4 theme parks in the US and UK had an average CAGR of 4.93% for the last 10 years. (SOURCE). However, with the advent of more entertainment and more addictive kind e.g. Tiktok or VR, I’d say this trend is unlikely to continue for the next 10 years. The growth tend downwards.
DTC (%REV)
DTC will begin taking up a larger portion of its revenue as it takes over some of the role played by linear network and as DTC has a much wider reach than Linear Network e.g. Able to reach mobile phones instead of being fixed on television, very valuable in countries where television is expensive (See success of NFLX in APAC). DTC makes portions of Linear Network obsolete.
DTC (Y/Y)
Management has stated its goal is to make DTC profitable by end 2024, I project that it will reach this goal. I’ve done the calculation and DTC will maintain this pace in accordance with the pace that NFLX is growing at as well, given that the streaming industry is an oligopoly one.
REVENUE MODEL: \[[SOURCE](https://imgur.com/a/8Sx5AH3)\]
#
#
COST:
COST OF SERVICES
Most of disney services have variable costs e.g. Theme Parks having to expand more to take on higher capacity or DTC having to pay more for bandwidth as more customers subscribe, and DIS has to constantly maintain production in order to remain attractive for existing subscribers.
COST OF PRODUCTS
As DIS gets more popular, they produce more merchandise in bulk which could lead to economies of scale. So the cost of products falls over time.
SG&A
Utilities are a variable cost, whereas rent is a fixed cost so increasing capacity has higher marginal benefit. I’d argue that SG&A falls slightly over time as DIS approaches its capacity limits.
COST MODEL: \[[SOURCE](https://imgur.com/a/2lUUVLI)\]
# COST OF CAPITAL:
**COST OF DEBT**
RFR (3M Average) = 3.53%
Risk Spread = 1.62% (SOURCE, Bond Rating A-)
COD = 5.15%
Marginal Tax Rate = 21%
AT-COD = 4.0685%
**COST OF EQUITY**
Market Beta = 1.04 (SOURCE)
Market Price(3M Average) = $97.11
Shares O/S = 1823M
MV Equity = 177032M
4105.02 = \[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%) / (1+R) + (\[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%)) x (1+3.417%) / R - 3.417% / (1+R) \^2
R = 8.635%
RFR (US) = 3.417%
ERP = 5.218%
COE = 8.96%
**WEIGHTAGE**
(SOURCE) Thereafter taken to be 10 Years.
PV Operating Lease Liability = 3626M
For debt there was no debt breakdown so I took BV Debt as the best estimate of Liability.
Total Liability = 51995M
%Equity = 77.3%
%Liability = 22.7%
WACC = 7.85%
# Conclusion:
I've valued DIS at $69.38. With so much of their revenue in an outdated system, it's like a time bomb waiting to go off. What's worse is that most of DIS' cost are variable cost which means that they increase as o/p increases so margins are more or less fixed in place. It's hard for me to see how DIS could potentially dig themselves out of this. The plus side is that they are generating positive cash flow so hope is definitely there.
Now, my old DCF is inaccurate because I did not capitalize content acquisition costs so that did not accurately reflect the nature of content acquisition. In perpetuity, I'm assuming that D&A > CapEX which is impossible as you can't depreciate more than the par value of a PP&E. I've just done the math but for my terminal year to hold I need to earn a ROE of 522%, beyond ridiculous. Terminal Year Y/Y is at 8% which is significantly beyond TGR.
NEW DCF: \[[SOURCE](https://imgur.com/a/RUGDnwf)\] | 1,684,408,445 | 2023-05-18 11:14:05 | Hanzoisbad | 48 | 58 | 0.76 | Company Analysis | /r/stocks/comments/13kvyir/disney_dis_dcf_updated/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13kvyir/disney_dis_dcf_updated/ | stocks | 3m |
138q0z6 | Netflix (NFLX) DCF Analysis. | # INTRODUCTION:
NFLX has come a long way since being rejected by blockbuster, its secret formula being the first to embrace change. It embraced DVD at a time where VHS was still the dominant mode of display. It embraced Streaming when the world started catching onto DVD. NFLX's edge was that it always pivoted quickly to the next big thing. But NFLX’s massive progress may soon grind to a halt. From lackluster solutions to strong competitors and pure market saturation, NFLX has a tough road ahead.
**INVESTMENT THESIS 1:**
*Overblown Growth Solutions*
When NFLX lost subscribers for the first time in 10 years, people freaked out and started selling off NFLX. But it seems that when NFLX announced its plans and after 1 successful quarter with some results from Ad-Tier NFLX bounced back up almost doubling from when it first dropped due to the shock.
Ad-Tier has some parallels to pirated sites. Both stream contents with Ads injected into the mix, either before the video plays or on the side of the screen. The main difference is that one is free and the other costs $6.99/month.
There are only so many people in the world that wants a YouTube equivalent as their streaming platform. The people who purchase Ad-Tier are usually “seasonal” fans, those that purchase cheaply so that they can watch their favorite series and unsubscribe afterwards. These subscribers have no longevity to them and temporarily bump up NFLX’s numbers.
Paid-sharing, getting people to get off shared accounts and getting their own accounts. Depending on how NFLX goes about it paid sharing could be a game changer for NFLX. There is already an existing customer base from those that are sharing account, they show a liking for NFLX but whether these customers will convert is dependent on certain factors Effectiveness of Paid-Sharing, ‘FOMO’ factor and Piracy.
Effectiveness of Paid-Sharing,
Is the net cast wide enough to catch all the paid-sharing users? What are the ways we go about catching Paid-Sharing?
‘FOMO’ factor,
Just how much are customers missing out will determine how they weigh the cost of monthly subscription and the ability to participate in the latest series.
Piracy,
Is it easy to find alternatives that can provide what NFLX provides for free?
**INVESTMENT THESIS 2:**
*Strong Competitors & Lack of C.A.*
The usual suspects obviously include DIS, Hulu and AMZN prime. But, what about the less obvious ones?
TikTok & Instagram reels. There’s only so much entertainment needed in one’s life. You can’t possibly simultaneously watch TikTok while watching a NFLX series, your attention can only be paid in one direction. ([SOURCE](https://www.marketingdive.com/news/tiktok-netflix-gen-z-video-broadcast-app/634594/#:~:text=TikTok%20has%20jumped%20over%20Netflix,the%20sixth%20most%20popular%20service))
Or AMZN with an all-inclusive ride on their AMZN prime with AMZN prime offering other benefits on their online retail store. They are “Offer-Stacking” creating an unbeatable offer that NFLX can’t counter.
DIS has a large vault of already created storyline that they have archived yet to be released onto Disney+ and the familiarity of DIS’ brand name enhanced by their theme park creates a very strong branding fit for the entire family that NFLX can’t parallel. ([SOURCE](https://www.statista.com/statistics/294111/leading-organizations-in-licensed-merchandise-worldwide/))
NFLX has no differentiator other than it was the earliest entrant and is now the largest entrant. There are certain exclusive content on NFLX that may make it appealing, but these kinds of advantages are superficial and over the long run, these exclusive content may offer their rights to stream to competitors or may be pirated.
**INVESTMENT THESIS 3:**
*Market Saturation*
NFLX can only grow so much.
UCAN from FY21-22 only added 0.7M subscribers and LATAM added 3M. LATAM’s market was already said to be 75% penetrated by NFLX ([SOURCE](https://labsnews.com/en/articles/technology/netflix-streaming-leader-latin-america-future/)).
NFLX should focus on making its subscribers more valuable which management has said it will focus on now, but it has only so far laid out plans to attract new subscribers.
Even if Linear Network loses most of its grounds in the next 10 years, NFLX may not gain much subscribers from Linear Network simply because Linear Network is mainly supported by the exact demographic that would not be on NFLX.
# REVENUE:
***Model***
I’ve used a bottoms-up approach when modelling my revenue and forecasted using historical data and surveys done.
***Revenue/Subscriber***
NFLX applies third degree price discrimination in how it prices subscriptions/month for different regions. Regions where it has already established a presence and where NFLX integrated into their daily life, NFLX charges a higher subscription/month.
But I don’t think every region will eventually tend towards the UCAN cost. Certain regions may see subscription services as a luxury good.
Overall, with the implementation and wide rollout of the Ad Tier I project my average revenue/customer to be higher for every region as the Ad Tier generates higher revenue per subscriber monthly, according to management.
According to 2021 US Bureau of Labor Statistics, an American with Annual income of $78,743 and expenditure of $66,928 spent 0.97% of that amount in entertainment and of that 0.97% only 18% goes towards “Fees and admissions” so about 0.17% of $66,928 went towards NFLX. $654 represented the annual spending on subscription services + others. NFLX takes up 30% of this, most households have more than 1 subscription. So, NFLX is probably tethering at the limit at which it can raise prices.
Comparing the cost per month of subscription between NFLX and its closest competitor DIS, Disney+ cost $4.80 compared to NFLX $15.86.
So, I forecast that the majority of increase in Revenue/Subscriber for the US will come from wider adoption of Ad-Tier subscription which yields a higher amount of Revenue/Subscriber rather than NFLX increasing prices.
European subscription is one of the highest cost to subscribe ([SOURCE](https://beebom.com/how-much-netflix-costs-each-country-worldwide/)) so, I'd say its unlikely EMEA will raise monthly subscription cost but rather EMEA is the region with the highest likelihood to group subscribe to lower subscription cost. So EMEA is more likely to add subscribers than revenue/subscriber.
**OVERALL, I assume that the full effects of FOMO for Ad-Tier will only show up from 2025 onwards.**
***No. of Subscriber***
For Paid Sharing,
NFLX has stated that the potential market could be up to 100+M households. I do also believe that convincing people who were previously sharing accounts of purchasing their own account may take some time to catch on, as they will have large FOMO after being locked out of their old account and missing the latest shows. And since NFLX only intends on fully releasing Paid Sharing from 23Q2 onwards, I believe the substantial addition to subscribers will only show up from 2025 onwards with the FOMO effect in full and Paid Sharing being rolled out entirely.
For fall of Linear Network,
([SOURCE](https://morningconsult.com/2023/03/28/linear-tv-viewership-gen-z-millennials/))
Almost 40% of Linear Network supporters are baby boomers. As the baby boomers age and decrease in numbers Linear Network will start losing its main customers, freeing up market share for NFLX to take as the younger generations start being associated with Streaming services, streaming will become the new norm.
BUT, this cultural change will be one that takes time. It will not show up to a substantial amount in the time period of my forecast. So I opt for more granularity.
**REVENUE MODEL: \[**[INSERT](https://imgur.com/a/9c2expe)\]
# MARGINS:
The difficulty in figuring out margins is that there is no reliable historic data within the past 5 years. Margins were always extremely skewed by extreme conditions.
E.g. from 2019 to 2020 margins jumped from 12% to 18% due to covid accelerating the adoption of NFLX.
OR in 2021 the marginal cost of acquiring content wrt to revenue being generated was the cheapest of the past 7 years at $0.5836 per $1 of revenue generated. Likely because people were embracing NFLX as tech adoption was accelerated prior year, margins peaking only a year later.
So, cost is broken down into 3 categories (Acquisition, Marketing and (Tech & Dev + G&A)). Tech & Dev + G&A are lumped together for more granularity instead of inaccurate forecasts.
***Acquisition***
As NFLX transitions into subscriber retention mode rather than attracting subscribers it inevitably will spend more on making its services more attractive so that existing customers will face a higher “emotional” switching cost, so churn rate is lowered. But acquisition will continue to take the largest portion of cost.
***Marketing***
Eventually the NFLX brand becomes more well-known or integrated into people’s daily life that they spend less on marketing themselves and more on advertising new content. Marketing costs will start to tend downwards. BUT there must always be a baseline amount of marketing cost to advertise new content.
***Tech & Dev + G&A***
Tech & Dev + G&A is likely to remain elevated for the first few years as NFLX starts to roll out Ad-Tier and begin supporting a substantial amount of new subscribers from Ad-Tier. But eventually as the number of new subscribers dwindles down, NFLX gets more efficient and needs fewer employees. It will also implement new tech features e.g. AI tech support to lower the number of employees necessary. So at that point Tech & Dev + G&A will tend downwards.
**COST MODEL: \[**[INSERT](https://imgur.com/a/yX54W9I)**\]**
# COST OF CAPITAL:
***Cost of Debt***
RFR (3M Average) = 3.53%
Risk Spread (3M Average) = 1.71% ([SOURCE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB))
Cost of Debt = 5.24%
***Timing of Debt***
\[[TABLE](https://imgur.com/a/CoSEpe2)\]
Weighted Average Timing of Debt = 1.57 Years.
MV Debt = 19225M
***Cost of Equity***
Market Beta = 1.27 ([SOURCE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX?p=NFLX))
Market Price(3M Average) = $341.52
Shares O/S = 445M
MV Equity = 151976M
4105.02 = \[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%) / (1+R) + (\[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%)) x (1+3.417%) / R - 3.417% / (1+R) \^2
R = 8.635%
RFR (US) = 3.417%
ERP = 5.218%
COE = 10.16%
***Weightage***
% Equity = 88.8%
%Debt = 11.2%
***WACC***
Corporate marginal Tax Rate = 21%
WACC = 9.49%
# CONCLUSION:
Ultimately, I’ve valued NFLX at $174.62, I just don’t believe in how astronomical growth could be, with all the changes that NFLX has introduced into the company. I believe that NFLX has set their priorities wrongly and are focusing on the wrong things, Subscriber growth shouldn’t be the focus it should be making our subscribers more profitable. It’s a good sign that they started caring and innovating again. But at the current trajectory I just don’t see it working out.
DCF: \[[INSERT](https://imgur.com/a/pCyLgNV)\] | 1,683,297,671 | 2023-05-05 14:41:11 | Hanzoisbad | 21 | 12 | 0.8 | Company Analysis | /r/stocks/comments/138q0z6/netflix_nflx_dcf_analysis/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/138q0z6/netflix_nflx_dcf_analysis/ | stocks | 3m |
134dq26 | Bill.com Holdings, Inc. ($BILL) target price was reduced by KeyCorp while analysts remain optimistic about future growth. | On April 29, 2023, it was reported that Bill.com Holdings, Inc. ($BILL) had its target price reduced by equities research analysts at KeyCorp from $100.00 to $95.00 in a research report issued to clients and investors on Friday. However, KeyCorp’s price target still reveals a potential upside of 21.27% from the stock’s current price.
Bill.com Holdings, Inc is a cloud-based software company that offers financial solutions for small and midsize businesses around the globe. The company provides software-as-a-service for automated accounts payable and receivable transactions, cloud-based payments, and spend management products that enable users to connect with their suppliers and customers effortlessly.
Bill.com had revenue of $260.01 million during the last quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $242.59 million. It reported negative net margins of up to 40.65% and negative return on equity of 6.23%, but exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations. Despite the unexpected slump in Bill.com’s target price reduction by KeyCorp, such reductions are not uncommon in the stock market industry. Sell-side analysts forecast that $BILL will post -2 EPS for the current fiscal year, investors should keep track of how this prediction unfolds over time before making any investment decisions regarding Bill.com Holdings, Inc.’s stock options.
In conclusion, while some investors may view Bill.com target price reduction as negative news in light of current market conditions, others may see it as an opportunity to acquire shares at a discounted rate with hopes that they will rise again in due time according to future predictions or market speculation.
Bill.com Holdings, Inc provides cloud-based software that simplifies, digitizes, and automates back-office financial operations for small and midsize businesses worldwide. The company offers a suite of software-as-a-service, cloud-based payments, and spend management products designed to help users automate accounts payable and accounts receivable transactions while connecting them with their suppliers and/or customers to do business.
In recent months, several brokerages have issued reports on Bill.com, with Piper Sandler reducing their price target from $140.00 to $110.00 and Oppenheimer lowering their price objective from $150.00 to $125.00. Despite these adjustments, Bill.com still holds strong fundamentals, closing at $78.34 following its Friday opening priced at $79.09 for its 50-day simple moving average and $101.22 for its 200-day simple moving average.
CFO John Rettig sold 6,008 shares of BILL stock at an average price of $93.01 per share on February 6th for a total transaction value of $558K. Insider Rajesh Aji sold two separate portions totaling up to 847 shares in the same quarter: his first transaction on February 15th when he sold his initial set of shares at an average price of $99; his second transaction involved trading away another set worth roughly the same amount. These transactions were significant for both insiders.
Raymond James & Associates, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, and MetLife Investment Management LLC are two institutional investors that have modified their holdings in Bill.com Holdings Inc. during Q1. Raymond James & Associates increased its stake in shares of Bill.com Holdings Inc by 3.8% during the first quarter, acquiring an additional 306 shares and now owning over 8K shares valued at $1.9M. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP and MetLife Investment Management LLC also modified their holdings in $BILL, buying several thousand shares worth $30M and $1.3M, respectively.
Overall, analysts have noted growth potential for Bill.com as interest in digitizing and automating business operations continues to surge globally. According to Bloomberg, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” with a price target of just over $140 per share – highlighting continued investor momentum headed into Q2 and beyond. | 1,682,919,318 | 2023-05-01 05:35:18 | Ben_aid | 6 | 0 | 0.81 | Company Discussion | /r/stocks/comments/134dq26/billcom_holdings_inc_bill_target_price_was/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/134dq26/billcom_holdings_inc_bill_target_price_was/ | stocks | 3m |
130tscl | TDOC Earnings Report | [https://s21.q4cdn.com/672268105/files/doc\_financials/2023/q1/Teladoc-Q1-2023-EPR-Final.pdf](https://s21.q4cdn.com/672268105/files/doc_financials/2023/q1/Teladoc-Q1-2023-EPR-Final.pdf)
TDOC reported earnings yesterday. The results seem much more solid than the past few. Some highlights:
* Revenue: $629.2m, +11% Year over Year
* Net Loss: $69.2m, $0.42/share (year-over-year is meaningless because of the goodwill losses the past couple years - happy to finally see this missing).
* Adjusted EBITDA: $52.7m, -3% Year over Year
**Revenue split into segments:**
* Teladoc Health Integrated Care: $350.0m, +5%
* BetterHelp: $279.3m, +21%
**Net Loss: ($0.42) per share**
* Stock based compensation: $0.28 per share
* Restructuring costs: $0.05 per share (primarily due to severance from layoffs in January)
* Amortization of acquired intangibles: $0.31 per share
**Adjusted EBITDA**
* Overall: $52.8m (-3% year-over-year)
* Integrated Care: $35.1m (+51% year-over-year)
* BetterHelp: $17.6m (-41% year-over-year)
**Operating Metrics:**
* U.S. Integrated Care Members: 84.9m, +7%
* BetterHelp Paying Users: 0.467m, +22%
* Chronic Care Program Enrollment: 1.028m, +13%
\----
Stock based compensation tends to be front-loaded into the first quarter pretty heavily and those severance packages should mostly be a one time hit; imo: this looks like a great build up for next quarter. | 1,682,611,800 | 2023-04-27 16:10:00 | mrdhood | 27 | 0 | 0.85 | null | /r/stocks/comments/130tscl/tdoc_earnings_report/ | https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/130tscl/tdoc_earnings_report/ | stocks | 3m |
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in Data Studio
Reddit Finance Posts Dataset SP500
This dataset contains 431,923 Reddit posts collected from 20 finance-related subreddits via the Reddit API. As keywords, all S&P 500 companies were used. The included subreddits are:
stocks, wallstreetbets, investing, StockMarket, options, RobinHood,
pennystocks, SecurityAnalysis, personalfinance, Dividends, CryptoCurrency,
CryptoMarkets, ETFs, FinancialIndependence, ValueInvesting, quant,
algotrading, forex, economy, Superstonk, spacs, financialplanning
About This Dataset
The provided data collection pipeline (see emilpartow/financial-sentiment-pipeline) makes it simple to expand the dataset with more comments, different time frames, additional companies, or other subreddits as needed.
If you need a larger or customized dataset, you can easily adapt and rerun the pipeline to collect more data for your own use case.
Dataset Overview
Each row in the dataset contains metadata and content for a Reddit comment or post, with the following columns:
id: Reddit post IDtitle: Title of the posttext: Body text of the post (if available)created_utc: Timestamp in UTCcreated_datetime: Datetime (ISO format)author: Reddit usernamescore: Reddit score (upvotes minus downvotes)num_comments: Number of comments (for posts)upvote_ratio: Upvote ratio (for posts)flair: Post flair (if available)permalink: Direct Reddit link to the comment or posturl: URL (if different from permalink)subreddit: Name of the subredditcompany: The matched company keyword (e.g.Apple,Tesla, orMicrosoft)
Data Collection
All posts were collected using PRAW (Python Reddit API Wrapper).
Data processing pipeline can be found here:
➡️ emilpartow/financial-sentiment-pipeline
Notes
- No manual or verbal content review was performed: The dataset consists of comments as collected via the Reddit API. There may be offensive, biased, or otherwise inappropriate content present.
- Please respect Reddit’s API Terms of Use when working with this dataset.
License
Questions or feedback?
Feel free to open an issue or discussion in the linked GitHub repository!
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