Romania revises up its Q1 GDP, annual growth lifted from 0.1% to 0.5% y/y
<p>Romania’s statistics office INS revised upwards the first quarter’s (Q1) nominal GDP by 2.0% to RON 424.6 billion (EUR 85.3 billion) under the second preliminary estimates published on July 8.</p>

<p>The revised data does not imply significant adjustments in the dynamics of the economy, with core sectors of industry and construction expected to make a more consistent contribution to the year’s economic growth (seen broadly above 2% y/y, possibly above 2.5% in 2024) in the rest of the year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The central bank, in its July 5 monetary board decision, already heralded “better than expected” economic growth in Q2.</p>

<p>The revaluation indicates Romania’s GDP expressed in real terms reached a new maximum in Q1, after the first estimate published on June 7 put the quarter’s GDP below that achieved in Q3 last year.</p>

<p>The annual increase in real terms (comparable prices) was revised up from a mere 0.1% y/y to a more substantial 0.5% y/y.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The quarterly growth rate of the seasonally (and workday) adjusted GDP also expressed in real terms was revised as well from 0.4% q/q to 0.7% q/q.</p>

<p>On the production side, a significant revision was operated on the volume of services delivered to households, which increased by 0.4% under the revised data compared to a 1.7% y/y decline under the previous estimates.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The sole other significant contributor to annual growth, on the production side, remains the sector of IT&amp;C (+1.9% y/y value added generated).&nbsp;</p>

<p>The volume of net taxes increased by 6.2% y/y (not much changed from +6.0% y/y under the June 7 estimate), making a significant 0.5pp contribution to the annual advance of the quarter’s GDP.</p>

<p>On the utilisation side, the real (comparable prices) consumption was revised at an annual decline of -0.9% y/y from -0.1% y/y decline previously estimated, mainly because of the government’s consumption (-12.6% y/y from -2.9% previously).</p>

<p><em>iulian@romania-insider.com</em></p>

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