Analyst: Romania's central bank should take expansionary stance amid global turmoil
<p>Romania's central bank (BNR) should cut the monetary policy rate on August 7 &nbsp;to follow the Fed and to address the recession concerns, vice-president of the CFA Romania Society Adrian Codirlasu argues.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The key interest rate is at 6.75%, and inflation at 5%. The gap is large, and it would be safe if the BNR operated a 25 basis point (bp) cut in the monetary policy interest rate," he argues, quoted by <a href="https://www.zf.ro/banci-si-asigurari/analistii-economia-a-crescut-in-t2-2014-probabil-cu-1-5-2-22453303?mc_cid=af1cc4c86e&amp;mc_eid=607bd7d763" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Ziarul Financiar</a>.</p>

<p>As regards Romania's economic growth, he believes it accelerated to 2.0%-2.5% y/y in Q2 from 0.5% y/y in Q1 and will reach 2.5%-3% in full 2024. Consumption and construction are the main drivers.</p>

<p>Other local analysts are slightly less optimistic while still expecting Romania's economy to recover from the disappointing Q1.<br />
"We expect a 1.7% y/y increase in Q2. Our industry is significantly affected by what is happening in the EU, but help can come from public investments in infrastructure, where there is money, a lot from the European Union," says Ionuț Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank.</p>

<p><em>(Photo: <a href="https://www.dreamstime.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Alexandru Marinescu/ Dreamstime</a>)</em></p>

<p><em>iulian@romania-insider.com</em></p>