Erste Group expects Romania’s Q2 GDP slowing down by 0.1% q/q
<p>Romania’s Q2 GDP is expected to show a mild contraction of -0.1% q/q and -1.8% y/y in Q2, due to weak confidence and base effects, Erste Group says in a research note.&nbsp;Romania’s statistics office will announce flash Q2 GDP data on Thursday, August 14.</p>

<p>The 1.8% y/y decline expected by Erste for the country’s economy in Q2 would be the first annual decline in several years.</p>

<p>By our calculation, a 0.1% q/q GDP decline in Q2 would still result in a 0.25% y/y advance for the seasonally and workday adjusted GDP.</p>

<p>Consequently, Erste’s expectations for a 1.8% y/y contraction refer to the unadjusted real GDP, which has not seen annual contraction rates since the coronavirus pandemic period.</p>

<p>Erste Group revised its 2025 forecast for Romania in June to +1.3% from 1.8% previously. But the analysts’ expectations have further depressed in the meantime.&nbsp;</p>

<p>ING projected recently only a 0.3% economic advance for this year in Romania.</p>

<p><em>iulian@romania-insider.com</em></p>

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