Romania’s inflation outlook worsens as central bank warns of September peak
<p>Romania’s central bank BNR has sharply revised its inflation forecast for 2025, raising the year-end estimate from 4.6% to 8.8%, with the possibility of exceeding 9%, <a href="https://www.biziday.ro/327894-2/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Biziday.ro</a> reported. Governor <strong>Mugur Isărescu</strong> warned that inflation will peak in September, potentially reaching 9.6% or 9.7%, before gradually easing.</p>

<p>The upward revision comes after the expiration of the government’s energy price cap, which the central bank says will add around two percentage points to inflation. Higher VAT and excise duties are also expected to fuel price growth.</p>

<p>BNR governor Isărescu said that while inflation could end this year above 9%, it is projected to decline to around 3% by the end of 2026.</p>

<p>According to the central bank’s May 2025 forecast, inflation was previously expected to stand at 4.6% in the final quarter of this year and drop to 3.7% in the first quarter of 2026.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The new outlook follows data from the National Institute of Statistics <a href="https://www.romania-insider.com/uncapped-electricity-prices-inflation-romania-august-2025" rel="noopener" target="_blank">showing that consumer prices jumped 2.7% in July compared with June</a>, marking a sharp monthly increase.</p>

<p><i>irina.marica@romania-insider.com</i></p>

<p><i>(Photo source: Inquam Photos/George Calin)</i></p>