Romania revises nominal Q2 GDP by 3% upwards
<p>Romania’s statistics office INS revised Q2 GDP upwards by 3% to RON 421 bln (EUR 84.6 bln) under the second preliminary estimate. It improved only marginally the annual growth rate for the quarter, from 0.8% y/y to 0.9% y/y.</p>

<p>Consequently, the growth rate for the entire H1 was maintained at 0.7% (+1.4% y/y if adjusted for the number of workdays).</p>

<p>The GDP deflator for the quarter was revised upwards from 8.5% y/y to 11.6% y/y, which explains most of the 3.0% upward revision of the nominal GDP.</p>

<p>Higher nominal GDP bodes well for the deficit ratios, and the government is currently striving to meet the 6.9%-of-GDP target. A 3% larger nominal GDP for the entire year, compared to the initial projection, would allow a supplementary deficit of 0.2% of GDP.</p>

<p>There were no major changes in the structure of the GDP dynamics for Q2.</p>

<p>The revised seasonal adjustment slightly changed the real GDP trajectory, showing that Romania’s economy peaked in Q4 last year to recover slightly (+0.3% q/q, revised from +0.1% q/q) in Q2 this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The high base effects created by the comparatively stronger economic activity in H2 last year put a question mark on the expected economic recovery in the second part of this year above the level of 1% (after 0.7% y/y in H1).</p>

<p><em>iulian@romania-insider.com</em></p>

<p><em>(Photo source: <a href="https://www.dreamstime.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Dreamstime.com</a>)</em></p>