Three major candidates in the race for Romania's presidency
<p>Based on the available polls, an evaluation of the candidate's potential, and considering the dynamics of the electoral debates, three major candidates emerge as main players ahead of the presidential rerun scheduled for May: ruling coalition's candidate Crin Antonescu, the president of far-right party AUR George Simion, and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan – running as an independent but expecting support from centre-right electorate including part of traditional voters of Liberal party PNL and reformist party USR.</p>

<p>Two of the three will most likely make it to the second round, but at this moment, it is still premature to forecast the outcome of the first ballot.</p>

<p>While Crin Antonescu seems to trail behind his two opponents, he benefits from the support of the regional networks of the two traditional parties - PSD and PNL. Despite factions in both the Liberal and Social Democratic parties visibly not pleased with Antonescu's candidacy, this remains a significant asset. Unlike last year's ballot, the ruling coalition (now consolidated with the Hungarian party UDMR) came up this time with a single candidate – perhaps not the preferred candidate for each of the coalition's members but possibly a better overall option.</p>

<p>George Simion expects to capitalize on the electorate of pro-Russian politician Calin Georgescu – seen at electoral support of over 40% in the recent polls. However, this diminishes his profile and possibly his score, and Georgescu's electorate may be thinner and less active than believed, although many see Simion as one of the candidates in the second round.</p>

<p>Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, running as an independent candidate for the center-right electorate, stepped into the electoral race immediately after the ballot was canceled last year. With demonstrated administrative but also political achievements, he emerged as the de facto leader of the democratic opposition after last year's local and European elections. However, the reformist party USR, co-founded by Nicusor Dan, failed to bring him back – an option that could have changed the course of the presidential elections in November-December.</p>

<p>Another relevant candidate is USR president Elena Lasconi, who attempts to capitalize on the good score obtained in the annulled ballot last November when she came second after the isolationist candidate Calin Georgescu (banned from running again, on alleged manipulation of the electoral process).</p>

<p>The candidate registration process ended on March 15, and the candidate clearing process, carried out by the Constitutional Court, expired on March 19.</p>

<p>On March 19, Anamaria Gavrila – the other candidate backed by Calin Georgescu (besides AUR's George Simion), stepped down from the electoral race after being cleared by the Constitutional Court.</p>

<p><em>iulian@romania-insider.com</em></p>

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