Raiffeisen lowers Romania’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%
<p>Raiffeisen Bank has cut its projection for Romania’s economic growth in 2025 to 0.7%, citing the impact of a challenging global trading environment and slowing international demand, the Austrian lender said in its semi-annual report.</p>

<p>The bank now expects Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.3% in 2026, <a href="https://cursdeguvernare.ro/raiffaisen-a-redus-prognoza-pentru-cresterea-pib-in-romania-in-2025-la-07-si-au-majorat-o-pentru-inflatie-la-65-la-sfarsitul-anului.html?mc_cid=ecf71b5699&amp;mc_eid=cd1f92f96c" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Cursdeguvernare.ro</a> reported.</p>

<p>“The difficult trading environment and the resulting global economic slowdown will likely have a negative impact on small and open economies in Central Europe,” Raiffeisen analysts stated.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Romania’s fiscal consolidation programme is expected to weigh heavily on domestic activity this year, contributing to the downward revision.</p>

<p>Across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), economic growth is forecast to remain modest, with industrial output lagging behind services. Poland is seen as a positive exception due to the anticipated release of European Union funds by 2025.</p>

<p>The steepest forecast downgrades were recorded for South-Eastern Europe (SEE), where Romania’s weaker performance is expected to drag on the regional average. Raiffeisen projects GDP growth of 1.8% in SEE this year and 2.2% in 2026.</p>

<p>The bank expects the National Bank of Romania to maintain its key interest rate at 6.5% in 2025, matching Hungary’s level. It anticipates a gradual easing to 5.25% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.</p>

<p>Average inflation in Romania is projected to reach 6.5% in 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, the highest in the region. By comparison, inflation in Hungary is expected at 4.5% and 3.8%, and in the Czech Republic at 2.5% and 2.3% for the same periods.</p>

<p><em>iulian@romania-insider.com</em></p>

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