<p>No it is not. For example, following Romer Advanced Macroeconomics 4th ed pp 193 from 11 recessions that occurred between 1947 and 2009 inflation increased in only 6 of those recessions.</p>
<p>Also, average change in inflation during all 11 recessions was -0.03% which means that on average recessions are slightly deflationary although the number is very close to zero.</p>
<p>Hence some recessions are accompanied by inflation and some aren't. The split is almost 50/50. Consequently, just observing inflation without looking at any other variables does not provide good indication of whether we are in recession or not.</p>
<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/CrpWy.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/CrpWy.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2022-08-01T21:53:09.623Z
Thanks. What confused me is the title of article in The Economist: "American inflation tops forecasts yet again, adding to recession risks" (Source: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/07/13/american-inflation-tops-forecasts-yet-again-adding-to-recession-risks). It seems to consider 'inflation' as a variable important for monitoring a possible economic recession.
StatsScared
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2022-08-01T22:02:03.203Z
@StatsScared yea but if you read pass the headline they explain that the inflation is driven by, among other things, energy getting more scarce. High energy prices can lead both to recession and inflation at the same time
1muflon1
CC BY-SA 4.0
2022-08-01T22:29:52.303Z
thanks, yes for sure. But still odd to try to make a inflation<>recession connection. But I guess the purpose of headlines is not exactly to be accurate..
StatsScared
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2022-08-01T18:11:39.747Z
2022-08-01T18:11:39.747Z
1muflon1
<p>I have been wondering about this. Perhaps one example of a recession without inflation would settle this quicky?</p>

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2022-08-01T18:31:02.550Z
also https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2009/march/risk-deflation/#2
AKdemy
<macroeconomics><inflation><recession>
Is high inflation an indication of a recession, either now or in the near future?
StatsScared
# Is high inflation an indication of a recession, either now or in the near future?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2022-08-01)

I have been wondering about this. Perhaps one example of a recession without inflation would settle this quicky?

**Tags:** macroeconomics, inflation, recession

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: also https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2009/march/risk-deflation/#2  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2022-08-01. Score: 4 | Accepted answer

No it is not. For example, following Romer Advanced Macroeconomics 4th ed pp 193 from 11 recessions that occurred between 1947 and 2009 inflation increased in only 6 of those recessions.

Also, average change in inflation during all 11 recessions was -0.03% which means that on average recessions are slightly deflationary although the number is very close to zero.

Hence some recessions are accompanied by inflation and some aren't. The split is almost 50/50. Consequently, just observing inflation without looking at any other variables does not provide good indication of whether we are in recession or not.

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/CrpWy.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/CrpWy.png)

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Thanks. What confused me is the title of article in The Economist: "American inflation tops forecasts yet again, adding to recession risks" (Source: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/07/13/american-inflation-tops-forecasts-yet-again-adding-to-recession-risks). It seems to consider 'inflation' as a variable important for monitoring a possible economic recession.  
> **username_2**: @username_0 yea but if you read pass the headline they explain that the inflation is driven by, among other things, energy getting more scarce. High energy prices can lead both to recession and inflation at the same time  
> **username_0**: thanks, yes for sure. But still odd to try to make a inflation<>recession connection. But I guess the purpose of headlines is not exactly to be accurate..  

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